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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go throwing him, Joe. I'm sitting

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Speaker 1: up to cat. Most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to Wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate Kabaki and we are perway.

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Speaker 1: What's up everybody, and welcome to the Action Network Podcast

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Speaker 1: presented by Fan Duel. I am your host, Chris Raybond,

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Speaker 1: and this is week one and we're gonna talk some

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Speaker 1: season leader props for the NFL to do it with me.

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Speaker 1: I got Jill Galan aka G Doug five thousand and

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Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson. I'm not gonna say the G Doug because

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say your your Twitter name because it's normal.

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Speaker 1: So we're just gonna we're just gonna call a Jill

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Speaker 1: by G Doug. But what's up, fellas.

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Speaker 4: It's good to be here, man, Excited to talk to

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Speaker 4: some season leaders. I'm all about the numbers and the mass.

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Speaker 4: There will be numbers and math today.

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Speaker 3: Be ready for it.

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Speaker 1: I let's jump right in with passing yards and I'll

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Speaker 1: start with what you branded? What do you think is

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Speaker 1: the kind of target number? You're looking for when you're

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Speaker 1: betting on a mark like this.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so I look at when I'm doing projections, kind

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Speaker 4: of looking at trends in recent years. So I noticed

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Speaker 4: twenty seventeen or twenty eighteen, there's a real jump in

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Speaker 4: passing number. So I'm really focusing just on the last

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Speaker 4: four years, big jump in passing attempts. Obviously, we now

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Speaker 4: have the seventeenth game. So last four years we've had

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Speaker 4: at least five guys that averaged a forty eight hundred

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Speaker 4: yard pace. Our winner is averaged a three hundred yard pace,

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Speaker 4: so that's fifty one hundred yards. It's a lot of yards.

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Speaker 4: We had a very tight race last year. We actually

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Speaker 4: had a Tom Brady winner on the version of this

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Speaker 4: podcast from a year ago.

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Speaker 3: So I think.

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Speaker 4: Basically we're looking at we need a five in front

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Speaker 4: of the number. We need a five thousand. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: I'm curious Raypun when you do your projections, I'm mostly

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Speaker 4: projecting high end here, just like the positive end outcomes

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Speaker 4: more so than just a media and a fantasy type outcome.

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Speaker 4: Do you how do you project high end when you're

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Speaker 4: looking at them?

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Speaker 1: You know, without going into well, I mean you said

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Speaker 1: you wanted to talk some masks. So there are there

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Speaker 1: are kind of distributions where you can plug you know,

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Speaker 1: what is what would essentially be those median and projections

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Speaker 1: into and to get a high end projection. I'm also

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Speaker 1: when I'm projecting for quarterbacks, I generally still project about

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Speaker 1: a half a miss game. So the first thing I'll

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Speaker 1: do is, you know, put put his games up to seventeen,

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Speaker 1: and then you know, kind of run it through some numbers.

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Speaker 1: But essentially you are kind of just looking for the

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Speaker 1: player with you know, it's not just the highest median yardage,

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Speaker 1: but you know also a very efficient player, you know,

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Speaker 1: so you want the yard to attempt to be high

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Speaker 1: because you're also projecting medians and attempts and and and

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Speaker 1: all those things. So if the attempts, the completions, the

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Speaker 1: air yards, you know, if the if the usage goes up,

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Speaker 1: then you have a better shot. So that's kind of

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Speaker 1: how you're looking at it. But I think you're on

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Speaker 1: the right track with that. You're probably gonna need five

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Speaker 1: thousand yards unless a lot of a lot of high

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Speaker 1: end quarterbacks get hurt.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that makes sense.

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Speaker 4: So I have six guys that I project high end

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Speaker 4: outcomes at five thousand yards, So four of them are

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Speaker 4: the four favorites here, justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Pat Mahomes,

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Speaker 4: Joe Burrow. No real surprises, like, look, we know who

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Speaker 4: the good quarterbacks are. We know who's going to be

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Speaker 4: near the top of these races of bargain injury. I

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Speaker 4: don't really feel like that's the way to play these markets, though,

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Speaker 4: because it's gonna be really close, and you're betting on

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Speaker 4: someone at like seven eight to ten to one odds

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Speaker 4: over a long season, and you've got to fade the injury.

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Speaker 3: Hope you win by like one hundred yards.

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Speaker 4: Hope they're not too good so they sat out Week seventeen,

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Speaker 4: So I don't I can't hate those bets. But I

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Speaker 4: have two other guys at five thousand plus, so those

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Speaker 4: are my bets. My top projection actually is Dak Prescott,

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Speaker 4: and that's my top play. I have him at fourteen hundred, So,

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Speaker 4: like you said, I'm looking at pass attempts, I'm looking

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Speaker 4: at yards per attempt, and that's.

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Speaker 3: Where I like Dak Prescott.

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Speaker 4: So he should get I think to about six hundred

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Speaker 4: and seventy five attempts if he's healthy last two seasons

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Speaker 4: he averaged almost forty attempts a game, so last year

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Speaker 4: his yards per attempt dropped way off. He was at

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Speaker 4: eight point three the previous two dropped on a seven

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Speaker 4: and a half last year. So if you keep the

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Speaker 4: passing attempts where he's been recently and then get a

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Speaker 4: little you know, spike and efficiency somewhat, probably not back

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Speaker 4: that high. We know Tyron Smith is out, we know

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Speaker 4: that's gonna hurt the passing numbers. Amari Cooper is gone,

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Speaker 4: but I think Dallas's defense we expect to be worse

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Speaker 4: this year. They're probably playing a little bit from more

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Speaker 4: negative game positions, so it should be a little bit

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Speaker 4: more passing there. I think Dak Prescott's volume has gone

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Speaker 4: up and we haven't quite noticed as much because the

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Speaker 4: efficiency has dropped. But if that starts to bounce out too,

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Speaker 4: I have him at fifty one hundred eighty one yards.

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Speaker 4: That's my leader right now, so plus fourteen hundred I

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Speaker 4: gotta like that one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, I'm worried about Dak in this offense.

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Speaker 1: I'm hearing that they want to run the ball more

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Speaker 1: because you know, the loss in the receiver room, you know,

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Speaker 1: with Amari Cooper, gone and gallop, you know, obviously not

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Speaker 1: starting the year right. You know, they lost, and they

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Speaker 1: just lost a lot of guys. I think they're gonna

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Speaker 1: run more, but I don't know. I think those splits

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Speaker 1: with with him without Tyron Smith are pretty scary to me,

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Speaker 1: more so than than anything. So I think I would

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Speaker 1: have liked Dak a lot more before before the Tyron

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Speaker 1: Smith news, especially because I still think Dallas, you know,

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Speaker 1: they're still going to have a pretty solid defense, and

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Speaker 1: that's another thing I kind of look for. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: with Dak, I think just that Tyron Smith injury. Ivan,

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Speaker 1: I'm sure you've seen the splits, but it's just it's

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Speaker 1: like it's like legitimate, the difference between like a good

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Speaker 1: team and a bad team, a good offense and a

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Speaker 1: bad offense when he's on and off the field, So

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Speaker 1: you know, I mean, things could go poor. We fit

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Speaker 1: for the Cowboys, and that's how he hits it. But

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Speaker 1: I'd be worried about him a little bit. But who

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Speaker 1: else he got.

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Speaker 3: Well, I'm curious, Joe, you're our Cowboys guy, what do

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Speaker 3: you think of that?

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Speaker 2: Fun I think you hit it right on the head.

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Speaker 5: I think both of you guys did I brought this

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Speaker 5: up on a podcast earlier, just talking about what the

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Speaker 5: opponent pass rush rate is when Tyron plays and when

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Speaker 5: he doesn't, and it increases like on an average of

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Speaker 5: like fifteen percent per game. And you don't think about

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Speaker 5: it as like, oh, fifteen percent, that shouldn't be that much,

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Speaker 5: but then you just watch it at the way that

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Speaker 5: the offense completely collapses when you don't have the blindside protected.

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Speaker 5: And Dak needs pretty much almost everything to go right

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Speaker 5: a lot of the time for him to be successful.

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Speaker 5: If you even go back to two years ago when

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Speaker 5: he was coming in with that ankle injury before he

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Speaker 5: broke his foot and ankle, he was up there from

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Speaker 5: a pass attempt standpoint and up there from a passing

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Speaker 5: yard standpoint. But again, Tyro was missing time even in

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Speaker 5: those games, and you could see it at it kind

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Speaker 5: of cost him where he maybe he was trying to

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Speaker 5: do a little bit too much. But I do think

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Speaker 5: the defense as well. While I would say that they

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Speaker 5: are a good defense, they're the type of defense that.

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Speaker 2: Will allow the big play.

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Speaker 5: They will allow game teams to get back into it,

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Speaker 5: which would then lend itself to Dak having to do

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Speaker 5: a little bit more offensively and racking up those passing yards.

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Speaker 2: So I don't hate this play at all.

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Speaker 4: All right, Well, let's go from your quarterback to mine.

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Speaker 4: So my other pick here is Kirk Cousins. I have

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Speaker 4: him also over five thousand yards, and I think here

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Speaker 4: what you like is the Kevin O'Connell addition. It's we

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Speaker 4: know what the offense is, we know who these guys are.

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Speaker 4: Justin Jefferson as good as any receiver in the NFL

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Speaker 4: right now, Adam Thielen healthy to start the year at

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Speaker 4: least as a very strong second receiver. But what you're

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Speaker 4: looking for here is a Matt Ryan season from last year.

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Speaker 4: Or sorry, I'm Matt Stafford from last year.

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Speaker 3: Matt, I'm Matt Ryan.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, now we don't Ryan from last year, No, thank you.

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Speaker 4: So the volume should uptick here. There's a lot of

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Speaker 4: time to Minnesota could be passing more. But I think

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Speaker 4: the efficiency is what you really want here. Again, Kirk

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Speaker 4: Cousins seven point five yards per attempt last year, he

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Speaker 4: was over eight the previous two, and I think that's

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Speaker 4: an area that I expect to especially take a real

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Speaker 4: jump this year. The offensive line shoot improve. Christian Garisaw

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Speaker 4: was a big leap toward the middle of the season,

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Speaker 4: improving as the year went on, and I think they

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Speaker 4: moved Jefferson, especially all over the field in that Cooper

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Speaker 4: Cup role. Spoiler alert, We're gonna get a lot of

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Speaker 4: Vikings talk on this one, and it is not homerism.

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Speaker 4: I'm usually a pessimist on my Vikings, but I just

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Speaker 4: think this offense could be really good. I have an

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Speaker 4: article that went up last week at Action Network ranking offenses.

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Speaker 4: I have the Vikings in the top quarter title of

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Speaker 4: the league. I have them like seventh or eighth offensively,

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Speaker 4: so Kirk Cousins is plus two thousand. I think that

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Speaker 4: he's not going to necessarily have like a fifty five

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Speaker 4: hundred yard ceiling. I don't think you can quite match

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Speaker 4: some of these other guys, but he could be a

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Speaker 4: guy that he's going to need to play all seventeen

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Speaker 4: and is in the mix there. I like that, Raybon,

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Speaker 4: you like that.

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Speaker 1: I got three words for you. You like that. I

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Speaker 1: like that you like that? Oh No, Kirk Cousins is

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Speaker 1: usually the guy. When I was asking, oh, off, you know,

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Speaker 1: give me a pick, like a long shot pick in

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Speaker 1: this category, Kirk Cousins was the guy looked too as well,

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Speaker 1: because I think that Kevin O'Connell additioned and just having

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Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson is big. And then, like you said, Kirk

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Speaker 1: Cousins has shown he's capable of the efficiency. He's gonna

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Speaker 1: have to like let it go deep down the field

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Speaker 1: a little bit more, but he's kind of shown he

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Speaker 1: can do that a little more when he has the

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Speaker 1: right receiver. So he's got Irv Smith at the tight

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Speaker 1: end position, a guy who can get some yarded. So

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Speaker 1: I like the Cousins play that. That's the kind of

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Speaker 1: the guy I would look at. And there's a couple others.

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Speaker 1: I think Russell Wilson first of all at twenty five

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Speaker 1: to one, I think is really interesting because he led

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Speaker 1: the league in average depth of target last year. Now

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Speaker 1: he's coming to a place where they're going to kind

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Speaker 1: of open the offense up more for him. They made

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Speaker 1: a concerted effort to add speed to this offense with

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Speaker 1: Montre Washington, They're getting kJ Hamli're back, even Jamen Virgil,

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Speaker 1: you know the guy they kept in the receiver room.

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Speaker 1: He's a speed guy too. So they have a lot

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Speaker 1: of guys who I think can go downfield. Courtman Sutton obviously,

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Speaker 1: and and Albert oh even so I think that he's

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Speaker 1: a kind of a dark horse as well. And then

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Speaker 1: and then Joe Burrow at nine to one. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think the Bengals defense could still be kind of

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Speaker 1: eh and you look at the quarterbacks that can kind

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Speaker 1: of combine the efficiency with volume, and I think now

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Speaker 1: with the Bengals improving their offensive line, I think they

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Speaker 1: could go super pass every I think last year, you know,

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Speaker 1: we kind of complained, like why are the Bengals running

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Speaker 1: so much? But their pass rate did go up as

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Speaker 1: a year progressive. I think now with protection, this could

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Speaker 1: be a team that throws, you know, six hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty seven hundred times. And we've already seen him put

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Speaker 1: up you know, the four hundred type yard games. So

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Speaker 1: I think Burrow's kind of a in play as well.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like Burrow as well.

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Speaker 4: You know, I think last year, from Week fourteen to forward,

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Speaker 4: the Bengals jumped from something like seventeenth and pass right

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Speaker 4: to seventh and then up even higher if you look

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Speaker 4: at the playoff numbers.

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Speaker 1: Let's jump into passing touchdowns. Joe, I'm going to start

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Speaker 1: with you here because I know this is your forte.

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Speaker 1: What is the target number in this market.

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Speaker 2: I think forty is the magic number.

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Speaker 5: I mean, you could look back, even just a couple

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Speaker 5: of years ago at Lamar Jackson, who led the league

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Speaker 5: in passing touchdowns, and I feel like that was more

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Speaker 5: of an aberration than anything. But to piggyback kind of

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Speaker 5: what you guys have been talking about. I'm all in

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Speaker 5: on Joe Burrow in the Cincinnati Bengals this year from

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Speaker 5: a passing touchdown standpoint thirty four touchdowns. Last year it

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Speaker 5: was nine less than Brady, but he threw it two

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Speaker 5: hundred times less than Brady did, so there's just a

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Speaker 5: lot more room for improvement. Another year recovered from the

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Speaker 5: knee surgery and you could see kind of his mobility

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Speaker 5: increasing as the season went on. And also last year,

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Speaker 5: like tops in the NFL in accuracy and yards for

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Speaker 5: pass completion, and you touched on an upgraded of offensive line.

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Speaker 5: He's going to give him more time to throw in

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Speaker 5: the pocket. And also you mentioned this as well, below

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Speaker 5: average pass defense that could lead to more shootouts. I

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Speaker 5: think that defense is a little overrated. Just going on

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Speaker 5: that Super Bowl run, I think there's a lot of

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Speaker 5: potential here for over forty touchdowns, and I love it

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Speaker 5: at ten to one.

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Speaker 1: Brandon, Well, first of all, do you like Burrow as well?

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Speaker 1: And is there anyone you like it in this market?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Yea.

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Speaker 4: So I'm also looking for that kind of forty touchdowns number.

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Speaker 4: We usually have at least five guys at thirty seven

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Speaker 4: or more in recent years, so if you can't even

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Speaker 4: get to that number, then you're pretty much out here.

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Speaker 4: So I think Burrow, Burrow, Allen, Mahomes, and Brady those

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Speaker 4: are the four guys who are all top six ods

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Speaker 4: that I think. Yeah, those are right, those are the

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Speaker 4: right top six ods. I'm looking for longer plays on

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Speaker 4: most of these. I'll have a few more favorites later.

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Speaker 4: But the guy that I like, Tom Brady, is I

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Speaker 4: haven't projected at forty three. The guy have one spot

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Speaker 4: below him. This is my top pick here, and it's

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Speaker 4: back to the guy you mentioned Ray Bond. It's Russell

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Speaker 4: Wilson sixteen hundred here. I haven't projected for forty two touchdowns,

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Speaker 4: so one off the lead very much in play there.

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Speaker 4: I like Wilson better for touchdowns than yards. And here's

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Speaker 4: the reason I do worry a little bit. We don't

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Speaker 4: really know what this offense will be. Nathaniel Hackett, We're

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Speaker 4: not totally sure exactly you know what's going to look like.

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Speaker 4: But the Packers were usually pretty run balanced. Obviously, Russell

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Speaker 4: Wilson's teams were very run heavy, so I was thinking, well,

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Speaker 4: they can't possibly pass less. His attempts have to go up.

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Speaker 4: I'm not so sure that'll happen. The Packers ran a lot.

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Speaker 4: They also were all as a very slow paced team.

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Speaker 4: What made Aaron Rodgers number so good was the incredible efficiency.

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Speaker 4: And that's where I think yardage may not be there

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Speaker 4: with the attempts because you just have to have the volume,

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Speaker 4: but touchdowns could be. So Aaron Rodgers, who has been

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Speaker 4: a touchdown beast his entire career. Before the last two years,

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Speaker 4: Ara had a six point zero touchdown percentage rate, so

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Speaker 4: that's like touchdowns per attempt. Last two years he jumped

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Speaker 4: to nine point one, which is absurd, and seven point

297
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Speaker 4: zero last year. By the way, six point zero is awesome.

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Speaker 4: Six point zero is like all time great. That was

299
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Speaker 4: already how good Aaron Rodgers was, and he still put

300
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Speaker 4: up two of his best three years ever in the

301
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Speaker 4: offense that I expect to happen here. Russell Wilson already

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Speaker 4: good touchdowns thrower, but I think if you get that

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Speaker 4: uptick there inefficiency. The other thing too, is a really

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Speaker 4: nice schedule to start out the year. So there's a

305
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Speaker 4: chance that Denver could get off to a great start here.

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Speaker 4: This might be one of those bets where I split

307
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Speaker 4: my bet and I bet it twice half and half

308
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Speaker 4: in case I want to cash out somewhere along the

309
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Speaker 4: way if I'm not feeling it. Russell Wilson. My hesitancy

310
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Speaker 4: here is that he tends to be a fast starter

311
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Speaker 4: and then fades toward the back half of the year.

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Speaker 4: We'll see what that how that goes with the better

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Speaker 4: team butt at plus sixteen hundred, I think he has

314
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Speaker 4: every bit and play with the other top guys here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, And I think that's a great point about

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Speaker 1: you know, he's probably more likely in this market than

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Speaker 1: the Yards market. You're getting a much better number in

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Speaker 1: the Yards market at twenty five to one. But and

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Speaker 1: again he leads the league in a dot, so it's

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Speaker 1: always possible. But this is right up his allie. He

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Speaker 1: could throw you know, like forty three touchdowns and like

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Speaker 1: ten interceptions and just be extremely efficient, So I think

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Speaker 1: Wilson's a sharp bet here.

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Speaker 3: Jill, did you have Wilson as one of your picks

325
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Speaker 3: as well?

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Speaker 5: I thought it was a long shot, and it's like, no,

327
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Speaker 5: this is one of my best bets, So kudos to you.

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Speaker 2: Over the last six seasons.

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Speaker 5: Around thirty two touchdowns per game, and again in an

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Speaker 5: offense that I don't want to call it broken but

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Speaker 5: is not really high end potential because of the propensity

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Speaker 5: of how much they run. But then of course you're

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Speaker 5: looking at his completion percentages and it's increasing year over year,

334
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Speaker 5: and two young, hungry wide receivers playing arguably with the

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Speaker 5: best offensive line he's probably had since the early legion

336
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Speaker 5: of boom days, Like it's gonna give him more scramble

337
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Speaker 5: opportunities because really the knock on the bet is Wilson

338
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Speaker 5: going to continued rush and try to get out of

339
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Speaker 5: the pocket. Like you see what his completion percentages are

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Speaker 5: when he rolls out of the pocket as opposed to

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Speaker 5: throwing in the pocket. But I think having guys like

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Speaker 5: Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, it's going to keep those defenses. Honest,

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Speaker 5: I do prefer Russ over Kirk Cousins in this market.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, So Kirk Cousins is out of their play here

345
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Speaker 4: at plus two thousand, So he's at six point two

346
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Speaker 4: percent touchdown the last three years. Again, six is a

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Speaker 4: very good number already. But if you look at the

348
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Speaker 4: guys that they're played through Kevin O'Connell offense, Matt Stafford

349
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Speaker 4: jumped from four point five percent in his career touchdown

350
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Speaker 4: right to six point eight last year, so big jump

351
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Speaker 4: for him in efficiency. Jared Goff going out of that

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Speaker 4: offense drop from four point four, you know, not great,

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Speaker 4: that's why he's gone, but even further down to three

354
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Speaker 4: point eight last year. So if you figure Kirk's touchdown

355
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Speaker 4: rate goes up some, I have him at thirty nine.

356
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Speaker 4: That's kind of right around the cutoff the forty that

357
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Speaker 4: we're looking for. Again, I don't know that we have

358
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Speaker 4: a monster ceiling, but Jefferson Adam Thielen both really big

359
00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:22,640
Speaker 4: touchdown threats. Matt Stafford at forty one last year, so

360
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Speaker 4: Cousins at twenty to one here I think is in play. Raybond,

361
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Speaker 4: do you like Cousins better for a touchdown or a

362
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Speaker 4: passing yardage?

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Speaker 3: Which one do you think you'd be a better in

364
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Speaker 3: play here.

365
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Speaker 1: I'd probably go with touchdowns. It's a higher variance outcome, right,

366
00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:40,880
Speaker 1: So he's got the same odds for both at twenty

367
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Speaker 1: to one, but touchdowns, Like you mentioned the touchdown rates,

368
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Speaker 1: the league average is usually around four and a half,

369
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Speaker 1: but you'll see a guy jump to nine in a

370
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Speaker 1: given year, whereas the league averaging yards per attempt or

371
00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,200
Speaker 1: just yards per game. Let's say, you know, it might

372
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Speaker 1: be three hundred at the top, but no one's going

373
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Speaker 1: passing for six hundred yard right again, So given the

374
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Speaker 1: same odds, this is a spot where you want to

375
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Speaker 1: take advantage of the variants. Now, if you're in a

376
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Speaker 1: different market, or you're just you know, you're trying to

377
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Speaker 1: find a median outcome, you might look at it differently.

378
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Speaker 1: But in terms of this market, you're trying to have

379
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Speaker 1: an outlier. You're looking for an outlier. Touchdowns are more

380
00:17:17,840 --> 00:17:20,920
Speaker 1: likely to give you an outlier result, much more likely.

381
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Speaker 1: That's why we don't really bet passing yards during the

382
00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:25,840
Speaker 1: season at least, I don't you know. It's like it's

383
00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:29,320
Speaker 1: very kind of low variance. It's not a lot of edge,

384
00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:31,040
Speaker 1: even if you think a line is off by like

385
00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:34,760
Speaker 1: seven yards, you know it's not a lot, but touchdowns. Yeah,

386
00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:36,199
Speaker 1: I think you go with the twenty to one for

387
00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:37,800
Speaker 1: the touchdowns over the yardage.

388
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Speaker 3: Yeah, that makes sense to me.

389
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Speaker 1: All right, let's go to interceptions, Brandon. You know, it

390
00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:47,880
Speaker 1: used to be in the twenties, every year the top

391
00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:50,959
Speaker 1: guy would throw in terms of interceptions. Now it's kind

392
00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:52,960
Speaker 1: of come down. And I also think the books have

393
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Speaker 1: gotten sharper because I remember I used to just bet

394
00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,880
Speaker 1: like everyone's interception under because they would start week one

395
00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:01,800
Speaker 1: of course, because of course they would, and then you know,

396
00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:03,760
Speaker 1: anyone gets hurt miss is like a game or two

397
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,160
Speaker 1: and you win your best. But now I think that

398
00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,520
Speaker 1: the books have wizened up a little bit. So tell

399
00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:09,600
Speaker 1: me what you're looking for here.

400
00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:11,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you're dead on with that.

401
00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:14,280
Speaker 4: I think probably like fifteen interceptions the number that we're

402
00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:16,919
Speaker 4: looking for probably not in the twenties, unless you know,

403
00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:19,800
Speaker 4: Jameis Winston puts up another god season then with thirty

404
00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:21,879
Speaker 4: picks again, like that's gonna beat.

405
00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:22,560
Speaker 3: Everyone for sure.

406
00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,160
Speaker 4: But yeah, the problem with this one, and what makes

407
00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:27,879
Speaker 4: this interesting but I think fun is you need a

408
00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:30,920
Speaker 4: guy who's bad enough to throw a lot of interceptions

409
00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:34,080
Speaker 4: but not gonna get benched so that he can keep

410
00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:35,920
Speaker 4: throwing interceptions, and that's the key.

411
00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:37,000
Speaker 3: So it's tricky.

412
00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:38,920
Speaker 4: You can see a guy and be like, oh, well,

413
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:42,080
Speaker 4: like Jamis, for example, can Jamis be so bad to

414
00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:45,960
Speaker 4: lead the league interceptions? Or if he's throwing that interceptions,

415
00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:48,359
Speaker 4: are they just gonna bench him and put Andy Dalton

416
00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:51,520
Speaker 4: in or try something else, start running the ball forty

417
00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:52,960
Speaker 4: times a game or that sort of thing.

418
00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:54,520
Speaker 3: And some teams can do that.

419
00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:57,040
Speaker 4: Other teams are gonna be like, now, man, we gotta

420
00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:58,920
Speaker 4: let Trevor Lawrence let it rip. We're gonna have to

421
00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:01,359
Speaker 4: let him throw and just see how he learns and

422
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:04,919
Speaker 4: where we go with this. So again, I agree. I

423
00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:07,040
Speaker 4: used to love this market. The books feel a lot

424
00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:12,640
Speaker 4: sharper here. So guys like Davis Mills, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields,

425
00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:14,840
Speaker 4: guys that I have right near the top and all

426
00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:18,360
Speaker 4: over fifteen interceptions, they're also our leaders here. The one

427
00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:20,240
Speaker 4: guy that's not yet. And I wrote about this right

428
00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:22,520
Speaker 4: after we got named the starter. I think this may

429
00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:25,040
Speaker 4: be a controversial pick, but I'm going with Baker Mayfield

430
00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:28,680
Speaker 4: at sixteen to one. So the controversy here is is

431
00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:31,800
Speaker 4: Baker gonna actually play all seventeen games, and that's the problem.

432
00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:34,959
Speaker 4: I like that Matt corral is out and Sam Donald

433
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:36,400
Speaker 4: is hurt. I mean, I don't like that for them.

434
00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:38,119
Speaker 4: I wish them all the best. I hope they have

435
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:41,640
Speaker 4: happy and healthy lives. But for my bet, that gives

436
00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 4: me a much better chance that Baker actually plays. This

437
00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:47,080
Speaker 4: is not really a team that has that much invested

438
00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:49,120
Speaker 4: in Donald to feel like they need to roll him

439
00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,639
Speaker 4: back out there. And I just think Baker is a

440
00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:54,960
Speaker 4: much better quarterback than Sam Donald. However, he throws a

441
00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:57,720
Speaker 4: lot of interceptions, so he's had a career two point

442
00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:01,000
Speaker 4: nine percent interception rate, which is quite high. He is

443
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,480
Speaker 4: an aggressive, risky sort of passer. The thing I like

444
00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:08,560
Speaker 4: here only for this bet is Ben McAdoo, the new

445
00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:12,680
Speaker 4: offensive coordinator, is just horrible as a coordinator because he

446
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:16,199
Speaker 4: skis incredibly pass heavy, which should be good, but is

447
00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:19,720
Speaker 4: just never efficient. So I thought, initially, Okay, well, Baker's

448
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:21,439
Speaker 4: gonna get a ton of attempts. Give me the yards,

449
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:23,920
Speaker 4: give me the you, give me everything. I'm not sure

450
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:27,080
Speaker 4: he's gonna get there with anything else, but Carolina already

451
00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:28,959
Speaker 4: had six hundred attempts last year. I think they get

452
00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:32,359
Speaker 4: to six fifty plus with Mecadoo running the offense. So

453
00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:35,359
Speaker 4: Baker mayfield six hundred fifty attempts if he actually plays

454
00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:38,480
Speaker 4: all year two point nine percent in reception rate. I

455
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:41,119
Speaker 4: actually have Baker throwing nineteen picks, which is my highest

456
00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:44,200
Speaker 4: projected total. And so at sixteen to one, he's a

457
00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:45,639
Speaker 4: pretty clear play from.

458
00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:48,120
Speaker 1: Me, Joe, what do you think.

459
00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:52,160
Speaker 5: I'm going with tried and true. I'm gonna go with Stafford,

460
00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 5: Matthew Stafford at twenty to one. Obviously, he finished last

461
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:57,520
Speaker 5: season with the most inns are tied at least with

462
00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:01,400
Speaker 5: Trevor Lawrence at seventeen eighth, and total pass attempts last

463
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 5: year with the second most yards per attempt. So I

464
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:06,600
Speaker 5: like the fact that he'll he will sling it and

465
00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:09,119
Speaker 5: a workhorse, like rarely misses games, even with all the

466
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,080
Speaker 5: injuries that have been coming out of training camp, Like

467
00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 5: you know, he needed back surgery in twenty nineteen. We

468
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:15,960
Speaker 5: can forgive him for that, you know, missing eight games,

469
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,879
Speaker 5: but he's played every game since that. And one of

470
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:20,440
Speaker 5: the things, if you just look at his track record,

471
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:22,840
Speaker 5: even with the Lions and with the Rams, ten or

472
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 5: more interceptions in all but two seasons, that he's played,

473
00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:27,760
Speaker 5: and those seasons that he didn't reach ten, they were

474
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,679
Speaker 5: both injury seasons where he missed like over half the season.

475
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 5: So and already dealing with some injuries in training camp,

476
00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 5: you know, with the elbow and some rib injuries. There's

477
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:38,879
Speaker 5: random a element's just always popping up, it seems like

478
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 5: with him every week. Another thing too, with Trevor Lawns

479
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 5: and him, one of the things that they had in

480
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:44,159
Speaker 5: common and one of the things that I look for

481
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:46,360
Speaker 5: is what are the multi pick games? Like how many

482
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 5: multi interception games did you have over a course of

483
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:50,879
Speaker 5: the season, And both of them had five games with

484
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:53,680
Speaker 5: multiple interceptions. To me, it just shocks me that the

485
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:55,480
Speaker 5: odds are this high, at like twenty to one. I

486
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:57,919
Speaker 5: figured he would probably be, you know, maybe fourth or

487
00:21:57,920 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 5: fifth on the list. He's like probably like eighth of

488
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:04,080
Speaker 5: all quarterbacks. And really the only reason I'm not kind

489
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 5: of thinking about endorsing like a second mortgage style of

490
00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:10,399
Speaker 5: bet on this is just the injury risk of missing games,

491
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 5: because if for whatever reason he just takes a bad

492
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 5: shot in the pocket, you know, then I just don't

493
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:17,720
Speaker 5: see much of a drop off like where they would

494
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 5: have feel like they would need to put John Wafford

495
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:22,119
Speaker 5: in there for a series or whatever. So for me,

496
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:24,240
Speaker 5: I think Stafford a twenty to one is the best

497
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:27,199
Speaker 5: value just based on opportunity and the fact that he

498
00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:29,480
Speaker 5: likely won't get benched because this team is all in

499
00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:31,280
Speaker 5: on every but everybody who's starting.

500
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's really a key. It's and you know

501
00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 1: it's it's not getting benched, and it's it's it's a

502
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 1: quarterback like Stafford. He's not gonna run either. Say you're

503
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 1: gonna maximize like your time in the pocket and uh,

504
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 1: you know, throw the ball. You know some of these

505
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:49,120
Speaker 1: other quarterbacks that like you think you know, like Zach Wilson,

506
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:52,240
Speaker 1: even Treler Lawrence, Like these guys can scramble a little

507
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,920
Speaker 1: bit more so you know that it's not conducive to

508
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:59,000
Speaker 1: to We even know Lawrence did it obviously last year.

509
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 4: Brandon Any any other long shots, Yeah, I do have

510
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:06,879
Speaker 4: one long shot. This is even more of like a

511
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 4: stash and wait a couple of weeks perhaps to play

512
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 4: a long shot. And that's because it's Kenny Pickett. So

513
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:15,280
Speaker 4: Pickett is fifty to one right now. If I could

514
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 4: bet on Pittsburgh quarterback, Like remember the old video games,

515
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 4: where they didn't have licensing and they had to call

516
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 4: the quarterback Pittsburgh quarterback.

517
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 1: Like if I bet on.

518
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, exactly number twenty three. Whoever this guy is

519
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 4: that's the best player in the game for the NBA game,

520
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,640
Speaker 4: We don't know. It's probably Michael Jordan. If I get

521
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,880
Speaker 4: bet on Kenny Pickett as Pittsburgh quarterback, I would love

522
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 4: this one. Matt Canada, not a fan, has been number

523
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 4: four in attempts last year, number one in passing attempts

524
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,560
Speaker 4: the year before. We'll see what it looks like without

525
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 4: Ben Roethlisberger. But they've been airing it out and throwing

526
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,199
Speaker 4: a ton of passes. If you play a rookie, do

527
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:51,920
Speaker 4: you pass less?

528
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 3: I don't know.

529
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,439
Speaker 4: They have great receivers and they're gonna probably want to

530
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 4: keep airing it out. But if he does play, the

531
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 4: offensive line is very bad. He's a rookie quarterback. Was

532
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 4: never a huge interception a problem at Pittsburgh. He never

533
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:06,920
Speaker 4: even had ten in a season. But this is the pros.

534
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 4: So you get six hundred and fifty attempts if you

535
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,120
Speaker 4: get there, and you just get a lot of chances

536
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 4: for mistakes interceptions. He's not gonna have a lot of

537
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:16,879
Speaker 4: time to throw, and he's a guy that that's a

538
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:18,919
Speaker 4: problem for him. He holds the ball a long time.

539
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 4: So I project Pittsburgh quarterback as eighteen interceptions, which is

540
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 4: only one off of my lead. If you get Picket

541
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 4: at fifty to one and then he maybe gets in

542
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:31,439
Speaker 4: by like week three or something like that wouldn't be

543
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,640
Speaker 4: that hard to see. Okay, Trubisky stinks out of the gate,

544
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,879
Speaker 4: throw some interceptions, whatever, then I think pick it. If

545
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 4: he gets in there soon enough would be in play here.

546
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:40,679
Speaker 3: What do you think? Am I just a way out

547
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 3: of bounds on that one?

548
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 1: I like the thought process. I mean, I think there's

549
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:46,960
Speaker 1: a lot of different ways you can attack some of

550
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 1: these rookie quarterback markets, you know, with in terms of

551
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 1: guys who aren't necessarily going to be the starter on

552
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,679
Speaker 1: day one. You know, there's long odds for pretty much anything.

553
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:59,159
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, all of these markets. So I

554
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,119
Speaker 1: do like it. I think I think Pittsburgh is a

555
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 1: little more run heavy this year, but I think if

556
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:09,160
Speaker 1: Picket particularly starts, I think they do go more past

557
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:11,680
Speaker 1: that because I think that would indicate that they're comfortable

558
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 1: enough with him, you know, and because like if you're

559
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 1: using Mitch Trubisky as your quarterback, when you're starting Trew Bisky,

560
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 1: you're not You're gonna You're gonna have to die it

561
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,160
Speaker 1: back of it, like we know that. But if you're

562
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,280
Speaker 1: starting Picket now, it's just like, okay, it could be

563
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 1: like justin Herbert versus Tyrod Taylor. You know, it was

564
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 1: like when they had Tyrod Taylor, they weren't gonna throw

565
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 1: that much. But once they got Herbert, it was like, Okay,

566
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:33,920
Speaker 1: now you know, we trust this guy, so we're just

567
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,680
Speaker 1: gonna let it rip. So I like the thought process.

568
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:39,600
Speaker 3: Actually, you got anyone you like for interceptions, I.

569
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,679
Speaker 1: Just go back to Stafford because I think, you know,

570
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 1: you look at his turnover worthy play rate last year

571
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 1: and it was near the top of the league at

572
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 1: three point seven percent, and you know interceptions are going

573
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 1: to be high variant. So I think again, getting a

574
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 1: guy like like Jill said, who is kind of underpriced

575
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 1: do the market. You know, even he led the market,

576
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,159
Speaker 1: and when you look at some of the underlying numbers,

577
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 1: he had a reason to I like it. I think

578
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 1: you know an interesting one one more is Josh Allen

579
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:12,920
Speaker 1: because he actually had forty five more attempts than Stafford

580
00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 1: and a similar turnover playrate at three point four percent,

581
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 1: And like, you know, Josh Allen is just in that

582
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:21,640
Speaker 1: Bill's offense is just so sexy that like we didn't

583
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 1: even realize that he averaged six point eight yards per

584
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:28,359
Speaker 1: attempt last year and threw fifteen picks, so you know,

585
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 1: like the offense can look good and like, you know,

586
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 1: I love me some gave Davis, but the numbers could

587
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 1: still be kind of shaky at the end of the day,

588
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 1: some of the efficiency metrics. So I think Josh Allen's

589
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:41,640
Speaker 1: like a dark horse because for him to be able

590
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 1: to throw uh, you know, six hundred and forty six

591
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:49,640
Speaker 1: passes and he still scrambles. It just showed you how

592
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:53,400
Speaker 1: many pass attempts that were there. He dropped back seven

593
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty four times in these seventeen games. So

594
00:26:57,200 --> 00:26:59,160
Speaker 1: I think he's interesting at twenty to one as well.

595
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:04,639
Speaker 4: Yeah, Allen as actually my second pick after after Baker Mayfield,

596
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:06,639
Speaker 4: and then I just I just deleted off our Google

597
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,360
Speaker 4: doctor before we started that. Yeah, I think you want

598
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 4: to be careful to just be like, oh, well, they

599
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:13,679
Speaker 4: can't be Josh Allen. He's too good last year Patrick

600
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 4: Mahomes was in play for this one.

601
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 3: All the way up until the end. Like more and more.

602
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:21,959
Speaker 4: Stafford Allen Mahomes coaches are trusting these guys, but like,

603
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:25,160
Speaker 4: go ahead, like make the aggressive throw. You're good enough

604
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 4: that we're going to overcome it. I don't mind if

605
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:28,399
Speaker 4: we make a mistake here and there, which is a

606
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:30,879
Speaker 4: change from what we've seen. Don't play her and Rodgers,

607
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 4: don't play Russell Wilson. They don't play it that way.

608
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 4: But some of these huge arm aggressive guys, you could

609
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 4: take a chance at them here.

610
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 3: So I like the allan thought, and you don't.

611
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:41,479
Speaker 1: Even have to be super aggressive in terms of like

612
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 1: every throw at is downfield. You just have to have

613
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 1: a lot of attempts because for example, when I when

614
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 1: I project interceptions, you know, every stat has a different

615
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:52,479
Speaker 1: regression to the mean in terms of you know, how

616
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 1: much how many attempts worth of regression are you going

617
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 1: to add to it? You know, from whatever numbers you're using,

618
00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 1: And for interceptions, it's usually like over a thousand attempts.

619
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 1: So just put that in perspective. You know, like you're

620
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 1: gonna take Patrick Mahomes as let's say his you know,

621
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:08,880
Speaker 1: interception rate from the last three years. But then you're

622
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,200
Speaker 1: gonna add like another thousand attempts of a week average

623
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:14,120
Speaker 1: to whatever his real numbers were, and like everyone's gonna

624
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 1: come out nearly the same. So it's just gonna come

625
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 1: down to how many attempts you're getting. And you know,

626
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:22,359
Speaker 1: Alan Mahomes, the good quarterbacks are the guys generally that

627
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 1: these coaches feel comfortable dropping back, you know, fifty times

628
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 1: a game. Look at Tom Brady, I mean the guys

629
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 1: you know, forty four years old. He threw like what

630
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:33,119
Speaker 1: drop back, like seven hundred and fifty times last year. So, uh,

631
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 1: you know that's how you got to kind of look

632
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 1: at this market. Let's go to rushing yards and where

633
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 1: are we looking for the target number in in this one?

634
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:43,720
Speaker 1: You know, with running backs, you know always kind of

635
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 1: getting hurt. Medium projections are pretty useless in this one

636
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 1: in particular.

637
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 4: So my top play here is Rashad Penny. So Seattle

638
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 4: running back fifty to one. Seattle had whoever their leader

639
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 4: running back was last year, had ten or more carries

640
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 4: in all about one game. They just have three guys.

641
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 4: We don't really notice is spread out. If you played

642
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 4: fantasy you noticed because the last five games of the season,

643
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 4: Rashad Penny was winning the leagues. For you last five games,

644
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 4: the average eighteen carries one hundred and thirty five yards,

645
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 4: So that's pace for three hundred and six carries twenty

646
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 4: two hundred and eighty one yards overseason. Obviously five games

647
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 4: don't just magically pace the seventeen. But you see the

648
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 4: upside there. We know Seattle's gonna run a lot. Rashad

649
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 4: Penny is a really talented runner, like he might be

650
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 4: a top five talent in the league. So if he

651
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 4: gets a lot of chances. He was at six point

652
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 4: three yards of carry last year, so we're not getting

653
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:38,640
Speaker 4: that again. But high volume, good yards per carrie run

654
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 4: heavy team. It's not a great line, it's not a

655
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 4: great offense. You don't have a quarterback there. So I

656
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 4: understand the case against it, but I think he's in

657
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 4: line to be the bellcal there. I project him around

658
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 4: thirteen thirteen to fifty as far as yardage goes, so

659
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 4: that puts him in play. You know, you bust off

660
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 4: one big long run or two and then he's right

661
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 4: in there. So I like Rashad Penny fifty the one.

662
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 4: He's my favorit play here.

663
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 1: You know, it's health with him too, because he's missed

664
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 1: I think it's over forty percent of his career games,

665
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:08,479
Speaker 1: you know, So that's kind of why I think they

666
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 1: went out and got in Walker. So you know, I

667
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 1: like to thinking though, it's we've seen him kind of

668
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 1: do this for a period of time. Now, it's just

669
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 1: can he do this over a longer period of time?

670
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 2: Are they going to be a winning team?

671
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 5: That's my biggest concern with taking a guy like Penny

672
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:25,239
Speaker 5: is just if you're going to be down twenty at

673
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 5: halftime every like nearly every game, you're likely going.

674
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 2: To abandon the run.

675
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 5: And there's just only a few running backs in the

676
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 5: league where they're just teams are so stubborn that they'll

677
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:37,720
Speaker 5: still run them down three scores. And that's kind of

678
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 5: my only issue. But as far as the upside is concerned,

679
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 5: and those odds, yeah.

680
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 2: Sign me up.

681
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 3: Yeah. My counterpoint to that would be Pete Carroll.

682
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:48,200
Speaker 4: There are only so many coaches who are stubborn and

683
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 4: we'll keep on running, and I think Pete Carroll might

684
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 4: actually be one of them. So you're right, the Seattle

685
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 4: is not going to be good. That is definitely a problem.

686
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 1: One guy who stands out to me. It's not sexy

687
00:30:58,080 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 1: because it's the team. Again, it is not going to

688
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 1: be a team. But Saquon Barkley at twenty five to one,

689
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 1: I mean, he's long, He's got longer oys than a

690
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 1: lot of these guys. He's got the same eyes as JK. Dobbins.

691
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 1: That that's kind of ridiculous, you know. So Saquon Barkley,

692
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 1: if he's healthy, I think he's going to get back

693
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 1: to that eighty ninety percent snap share in that offense.

694
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 1: And you know, we saw, for example, even Dabo you know,

695
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 1: gave Devin Singletary down the stretch, you know, once he

696
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 1: gave up on on on Zach Moss and everybody. Devin

697
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 1: still Terry was out there every single snap. But I

698
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 1: think there's a chance that Barkley, you know, starts to

699
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 1: year like that and just continues. So I really think

700
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 1: that's what you're looking for me. And I think even

701
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 1: a guy like Naji Harris at twenty to one, you know,

702
00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 1: is in play because everyone's going to point to the

703
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 1: offensive line and you know, how good is Kittsburgh going

704
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 1: to be? This and that? But at the end of

705
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 1: the day, Nage har is gonna get eighty five to

706
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 1: ninety percent of those backfield carries in most weeks. So uh,

707
00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 1: it's really that's all comes down to for me in

708
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 1: this market is just how high a percentage of the

709
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 1: snap share can you get for the entire year.

710
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:05,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, that makes sense. I like sakuon two. I like

711
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 4: how they upgraded their offensive line. I think the tackles

712
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 4: are really kind of coming into play for them there,

713
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 4: so that helps him.

714
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 3: The other one.

715
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:13,080
Speaker 4: I like here just as a sprinkling, the long shot

716
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:16,720
Speaker 4: Kareem Hunt one hundred and fifty to one, you're basically

717
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:19,480
Speaker 4: betting on will Nick Chubb go down in September.

718
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 3: If he does, then you want that Kream.

719
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 4: Hunt ticket because he's suddenly going to be the guy

720
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 4: with a great offensive line in a run heavy team.

721
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:30,560
Speaker 4: If Hunt suddenly disappeared, Nick Chubb would be the favorite

722
00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 4: to win this category, I think. And he's at ten

723
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:35,960
Speaker 4: to one right now. Kareem Hunt is one injury away

724
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 4: in a very volatile position. So that's the case is

725
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 4: just if Chubb goes away for whatever reason, then I

726
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 4: think Hunt becomes that high percentage play.

727
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 1: Yeah. I like that. That thought processes well. I mean,

728
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 1: there's another guy I thought about, and he's kind of

729
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 1: it's already priced in that if the other guy goes down.

730
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 1: But I think he's young enough, big enough, and he

731
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 1: would have the work quote to himself that he could

732
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 1: do it, and that's aj doing. I think a Dalen

733
00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:02,920
Speaker 1: at fifty to one could could handle like a year's

734
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 1: worth of punishment, and you know, kind of you know,

735
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 1: they're gonna still run the ball. They still have Aaron Rodgers.

736
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 1: He still had to respect the pass, and he still

737
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 1: should have a decent offensive line. So yeah, just just

738
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:16,360
Speaker 1: kind of like the Browns because another team gonna have

739
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 1: to run but should still be a solid overall team. Yeah.

740
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 1: I like that call. All right, let's jump to rushing

741
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 1: touchdowns and Jill going to you first on this one.

742
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 1: You're the touchdown wizard here, What are you looking for

743
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 1: in this one?

744
00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 5: I mean, really, it just comes down to two simple things,

745
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 5: skill and opportunity. And this isn't a sexy pick at all.

746
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 5: It's Dereck Henry at seven to one. Even just over

747
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 5: the last three seasons, like last year for example, he

748
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 5: was on pace for almost four over four hundred carries.

749
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 5: Like obviously I don't think anybody is a human body

750
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 5: can withstand that type of punishment, But if there is one,

751
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 5: it's probably Derreck Henry. And he had ten touchdowns in

752
00:33:56,000 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 5: eight games. Now, Jonathan taylor career year eighteen touchdowns, played

753
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 5: nine more games. Obviously, probably that's probably the best that

754
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:06,959
Speaker 5: we're ever going to see of Jonathan Taylor. And of

755
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 5: course the Titans offense, they're just very one dimensional and

756
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 5: even now, especially with AJ Brown gone, I feel like

757
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:14,320
Speaker 5: they're even going to lean into the run even more.

758
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:16,920
Speaker 5: And over the last three seasons, Derek Henry has led

759
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 5: the league in red zone carries inside the ten yard

760
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:23,239
Speaker 5: line and outside of last season where he's eleventh in

761
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:25,319
Speaker 5: eight games, And so just imagine if it was a

762
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 5: full game sample, and then even just look at how

763
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 5: he's performed against higher end teams that are have good

764
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,360
Speaker 5: defensive fronts, like even last year he scored three touchdowns

765
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:36,360
Speaker 5: versus Buffalo. You know, ten of seventeen games upcoming this

766
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:38,400
Speaker 5: year are teams that were bond in fifteen in the

767
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 5: NFL and rushing touchdowns allowed, he could have eight touchdowns

768
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 5: just combined in four games against the Jags and Texans.

769
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 5: Like with the way that their defensive line shape up. Now,

770
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:51,320
Speaker 5: barring injury, I think he'll finish with at least sixteen touchdowns.

771
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:52,799
Speaker 1: And is that enough?

772
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:54,400
Speaker 2: I mean, we shall see.

773
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 5: But I mean entering last season, I just kind of

774
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:58,400
Speaker 5: look at what the odds were where if he was

775
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:01,000
Speaker 5: entering as a healthy candidate, he was around plus two

776
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 5: to fifty for this category.

777
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:03,560
Speaker 2: This year, now he's seven to one.

778
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:05,319
Speaker 5: And of course, if you just look at the week

779
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 5: the week touchdown odds, this is another thing that I'm

780
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 5: looking at from an indicator. The main running backs that

781
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 5: get the highest odds are like a minus two hundred

782
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 5: or more week to week are Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook,

783
00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:18,200
Speaker 5: and Derrick Henry. So if only three backs are kind

784
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 5: of getting those odds. Out of those three, Dalvin Cook

785
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:23,160
Speaker 5: I don't really trust from an injury perspective standpoint, just

786
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:24,400
Speaker 5: because he hasn't shown.

787
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:26,760
Speaker 2: The ability to stay on the field for a full season.

788
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:29,200
Speaker 5: And basically it's coming down to whether or not I'm

789
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:31,799
Speaker 5: gonna feelod about Jonathan Taylor Dereck Henry. I'm gonna go

790
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:35,680
Speaker 5: with the higher odds of Derek Henry at seven to one.

791
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 1: I mean, can't argue with Derek Henry He's just absurd.

792
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 1: And he's another guy too who you never really have

793
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 1: to worry about him losing any kind of key carries.

794
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:49,239
Speaker 1: I mean he was he averaged twenty seven carries per

795
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 1: game last year. I mean, you know, no, Henery, Yeah,

796
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:57,759
Speaker 1: the whole seasons, aren't the carries in eight games, Like

797
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:00,920
Speaker 1: you know, he ran two hundred night eighteen times in

798
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:06,360
Speaker 1: those eight games. So yeah, the other side is certainly there, Brandon,

799
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:07,319
Speaker 1: what about you?

800
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I'm looking for probably fifteen touchdowns here. We've

801
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:12,279
Speaker 4: had three years in a row with at least three

802
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 4: guys at fifteen or more. So basically, just need an

803
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:16,239
Speaker 4: average a touchdown a game. You need to score a

804
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 4: lot of touchdowns here. Obviously, I think Henry and Taylor

805
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:20,959
Speaker 4: are the two guys that are right at the top.

806
00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 4: But again, for me, if I'm looking at we usually

807
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:27,560
Speaker 4: have a bunch of guys who end up at twelve, fourteen, sixteen,

808
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 4: all in that same range.

809
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 3: It's just it's so close.

810
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 4: I can't bring myself to bet on a five to one,

811
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 4: a seven to one a favorite when it's going to

812
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 4: come down to, like what if Henry didn't get eight

813
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 4: touchdowns in those four games? What if he missed one

814
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:43,759
Speaker 4: game against Houston and that was going to be three touchdowns,

815
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 4: and now he finishes at thirteen's.

816
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:47,400
Speaker 3: To the fifteen and is out of this one. So

817
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 3: I think two.

818
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 4: You mentioned the injuries with Dalvin Cook. Cook misses a

819
00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 4: couple games a year, but Derrick Henry is an older,

820
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 4: bigger back coming off of a major injury. For me,

821
00:36:57,840 --> 00:36:59,759
Speaker 4: even though he's only had the one injury, I think

822
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:03,399
Speaker 4: that the injury risk is much bigger with him, where

823
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 4: you can miss a game or two, but with Henry

824
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 4: you might miss a chunk.

825
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:06,840
Speaker 3: Again.

826
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 4: So again with running backs, I just am trying to

827
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,279
Speaker 4: play some long shots because for me, rather than take

828
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 4: like a seven to one, I'd rather play three or

829
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:18,880
Speaker 4: four guys and get a few lottery tickets together and

830
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 4: kind of get a position where I'm like, I'm ten

831
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:23,399
Speaker 4: to one on any of these four guys winning. So

832
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 4: I mentioned Rashad Penny. I like him here too, sixty

833
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 4: to one.

834
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:27,400
Speaker 3: Here.

835
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 4: He had six touchdowns in that last five game stretch

836
00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:33,239
Speaker 4: that I mentioned, So again, Seattle'm not going to score

837
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:34,919
Speaker 4: a lot of points, so that's a really easy case

838
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 4: against him. But sixty to one, I don't mind the shot.

839
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:40,040
Speaker 4: My favorite guy here though, and this one, I really

840
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 4: like Josh Jacobs fifty to one for the Raiders. Now,

841
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:47,120
Speaker 4: let's be clear, I do not like Josh Jacobs the player.

842
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:49,279
Speaker 4: I don't think he is a very good runner. Here's

843
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:52,440
Speaker 4: what I do like. He's had twenty eight rushing touchdowns

844
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:54,719
Speaker 4: in forty three games. So he's a guy that they

845
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 4: go to pretty often near the goal line. Obviously it's

846
00:37:57,200 --> 00:38:00,200
Speaker 4: a new scheme, new system, but that's what I like here.

847
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 4: Josh McDaniels comes over from New England, and I always

848
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 4: in rushing touchdowns. Look for some Patriot that I can

849
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:10,320
Speaker 4: play here. New England year after year is top three

850
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:13,880
Speaker 4: in rushing touchdowns. It's insane. They love to rush for

851
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 4: touchdowns when they get near the goal line. Is that Belichick?

852
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 4: Is it McDaniels. We don't know who we'll find out,

853
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:22,360
Speaker 4: but you have the Raiders, who we all expect to

854
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:23,280
Speaker 4: score a lot of points.

855
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 3: We expect that to happen in the air.

856
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:28,319
Speaker 4: But if McDaniels sticks with the rushing theme, you get

857
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:30,719
Speaker 4: an offense that scores a lot of points. You got

858
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 4: Jacobs probably, we know even if he's not an efficient runner,

859
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:36,400
Speaker 4: even if he loses some carries to some of the

860
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:38,919
Speaker 4: other guys there. I think he's gonna be their goal

861
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:41,879
Speaker 4: line guy. So I could see a James Counter sort

862
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:43,919
Speaker 4: of year here for Jacobs where it's like, all right,

863
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:46,279
Speaker 4: it's not really pretty, but we're gonna get a lot

864
00:38:46,320 --> 00:38:48,000
Speaker 4: of rushing touchdowns. I think you can get him that

865
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 4: thirteen to fifteen range, so fifty to one. He's probably

866
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 4: my favorite long shot bet on the whole podcast here.

867
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:57,080
Speaker 1: Absolutely, I love this play. This is I've been talking

868
00:38:57,120 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 1: about this for a while, Like Josh Jacobs in this

869
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 1: offense with a quarterback who's never been known for throwing touchdowns,

870
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:05,799
Speaker 1: it's perfect. And then you have Josh mcdanon's. I mean,

871
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 1: Damien Harris was third in the league and he only

872
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 1: had two hundred and two carries last year. You know

873
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 1: he was there's there's just always like you said, Josh McDaniels,

874
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 1: I remember when Garrett Blunt used to used to put

875
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:20,560
Speaker 1: up touchdowns as well. If it's just it's just what

876
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:22,480
Speaker 1: they do. And Jacobs is fairly young too. You know

877
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 1: you mentioned kind of injury risk. What is this is

878
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:27,359
Speaker 1: age twenty four season or something like that, twenty five.

879
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 1: Jacobs is not like an older guy either, So I

880
00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 1: think it sets up perfectly. Yeah, it's gonna be his

881
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 1: age twenty four season this year for Josh Jacobs, so

882
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 1: I think it sets up perfectly for him. I mean,

883
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 1: he had nine touchdowns last year in two hundred and

884
00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:47,640
Speaker 1: seventeen carries for you know, middling Raiders offense, and he's

885
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:50,040
Speaker 1: always kind of played. He's never missed. He's never played

886
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:51,799
Speaker 1: a full season, but he's also never missed a ton

887
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:55,439
Speaker 1: of games. So yeah, I love Josh Jacobs. I think

888
00:39:55,480 --> 00:40:00,160
Speaker 1: that is the play in this market. But Joe the

889
00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:02,680
Speaker 1: other any other guys you looking act, Yeah, I've got.

890
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 2: A long shot here, and this is one of those

891
00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 2: hear me out scenarios.

892
00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:10,799
Speaker 5: It's Jalen Hurts at twenty five to one ten touchdowns

893
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 5: of fifteen games last year. Is playing with the best

894
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 5: top three. I'll just say top three. I don't want

895
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:17,160
Speaker 5: to give the Eagles too much credit. One of the

896
00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:20,719
Speaker 5: best o lines of football, and has shown that he

897
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 5: will call his own number at the goal line instead

898
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 5: of handing it off to Sanders. You know Boston Scott

899
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 5: Kenneth Gainwell, and he led the team in red zone

900
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 5: carries with thirty one last year, all quarterbacks and red

901
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:33,719
Speaker 5: zone carries. Last year, twenty two carries inside the ten.

902
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 5: That's the same as Nick Chubb, more than Ezekiel Elliott,

903
00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 5: more than Najie Harris, he had more, he had five

904
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 5: more touchdowns on Lamar Jackson on only five more carries

905
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:45,719
Speaker 5: for the year, ten touchdowns and fifteen games. And I

906
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 5: just think that there's a lot of potential, especially with

907
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:49,919
Speaker 5: the defenses that they're going to be playing this year.

908
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 5: At twenty five to one, I'm gonna be sprinkling on

909
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:53,359
Speaker 5: that for sure.

910
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 1: All right, let's jump to let's jump to receiving yards

911
00:40:57,719 --> 00:41:01,480
Speaker 1: and Brandon eilstart to looking at in this market, Well,

912
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 1: first of all, what's the target? And then who are

913
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:03,919
Speaker 1: looking at?

914
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:07,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, so we know we need at least ninety yards

915
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,279
Speaker 4: a game. That's fifteen hundred yards over the season. We've

916
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 4: had at least three guys do that in the last

917
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:13,839
Speaker 4: five years, and probably gonna need one hundred yards a game.

918
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:16,279
Speaker 4: So that's easy math. Seventeen hundred yards. We've had that

919
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:17,839
Speaker 4: in four or five seasons.

920
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:19,279
Speaker 3: For me, this is a.

921
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:22,840
Speaker 4: Spot where I do better favorite because my receiving yards

922
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:26,839
Speaker 4: projection leader is justin Jefferson. That's my pick ten to one,

923
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 4: and I have Jefferson not just as my projected leader.

924
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 4: He is way out ahead of the field on this one,

925
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:34,279
Speaker 4: and that's why I like him as a favorite. I

926
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:37,200
Speaker 4: have Jefferson a one hundred and ninety targets, one hundred

927
00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 4: and thirty catches, eighteen hundred and fifty yards projected as

928
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 4: a high end outcome. Now, it's never great to just

929
00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 4: project someone to put up nearly two thousand yards, I get,

930
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:48,880
Speaker 4: but I love what Jefferson could be for Kevin Accounell

931
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 4: in this offense.

932
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:51,080
Speaker 3: Basically, look, we know.

933
00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:53,799
Speaker 4: What Cooper Cup did a year ago, and Jefferson is

934
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:55,640
Speaker 4: going to be in that Cooper Cup sort of role.

935
00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 4: I think now where they're moving him around the field,

936
00:41:58,000 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 4: they're going to have him play in the slot sometime,

937
00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 4: where he played at LSU and was awesome. The other

938
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:05,879
Speaker 4: thing too, Cooper Cup had a seventy six percent catch

939
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:08,880
Speaker 4: rate last year, Jefferson was only sixty five. So if

940
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:11,480
Speaker 4: the targets go up and he gets more efficient, now

941
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:14,320
Speaker 4: you get some more catches, and his yardage per attempt

942
00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:16,839
Speaker 4: or yards per catch has always been really good. So

943
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:19,880
Speaker 4: I have Jefferson eighteen hundred and fifty yards that is

944
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 4: My next closest receiver is fifteen hundred, so that is

945
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:25,680
Speaker 4: a sizable margin. And that's why here is why I'm

946
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 4: willing to bet on a favorite. So Jefferson ten to one,

947
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:31,799
Speaker 4: and spoiler here, this will not be my last Justin

948
00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:33,360
Speaker 4: Jefferson play on the board either.

949
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is one of those markets where it's hard

950
00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:39,000
Speaker 1: to kind of get away from the favorites. Just kind

951
00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:42,319
Speaker 1: of looking around the league shoe anyone you like in

952
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:42,840
Speaker 1: this one?

953
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:45,880
Speaker 5: The only counter with that, And again, I love Jefferson.

954
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 5: I think I think it's still a solid play. I

955
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:52,200
Speaker 5: just worry about in that offense how much Cousins just

956
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 5: favors feeling, especially like in short gain situations. I just

957
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:57,239
Speaker 5: find a lot of the time. But like if you

958
00:42:57,280 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 5: look at the last four years since and Cousins have

959
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:04,719
Speaker 5: been together, twelve touchdowns in sixteen games in the week

960
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:07,759
Speaker 5: one to week four stretch, like he clearly has been

961
00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 5: favoring him in that spot. But from a yardage standpoint,

962
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:13,759
Speaker 5: I'm gonna be looking at another LSU Tiger, but more

963
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 5: for the touchdown side of things, all.

964
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, you know this for this market, Like I

965
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:22,680
Speaker 1: love Jamar Chase in in in terms of receiving yards. Like,

966
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:25,719
Speaker 1: if I'm going off Jefferson, I think Jamar Chase, you know,

967
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:30,160
Speaker 1: right there at ten to one as well. I really

968
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:32,280
Speaker 1: like him, and I think, you know, for a longer shot,

969
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:35,400
Speaker 1: Michael Pittman is a guy that I keep coming back to.

970
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:37,960
Speaker 1: He's fifty to one. And you know the thing with

971
00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 1: Michael Pittman is they're already talking about like throwing the

972
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 1: ball more this year, and Michael Pittman pretty much of

973
00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 1: all receivers runs like the most routes per dropback. He

974
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:51,520
Speaker 1: was on a field like ninety six percent of their

975
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:54,560
Speaker 1: routes last year. He has zero competition for targets. And

976
00:43:54,600 --> 00:43:57,279
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan year in and year out before he got

977
00:43:57,320 --> 00:44:01,319
Speaker 1: saddled with that atrociousness of a squad last year, every

978
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:04,440
Speaker 1: year he had a guy in the top six in

979
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:08,759
Speaker 1: receiving yards. And you like remember Calvin Ridley going into

980
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:10,640
Speaker 1: year three, you know it didn't quite know what to

981
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 1: expect with him, and then you know he's right there

982
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:14,800
Speaker 1: at the end of the year. I think he finished

983
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 1: with thirteen seventy four. But it kind of reminds me

984
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:20,399
Speaker 1: of Pittman here. It's like, you know, we just think

985
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:23,239
Speaker 1: of their coach as this run heavy team, and but

986
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 1: you know a couple of injuries, you know, maybe Shaq

987
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:28,719
Speaker 1: Leonard doesn't quite heal right or something like that. Now

988
00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:30,239
Speaker 1: you have Matt Ryan, You're not going to be shy

989
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:33,160
Speaker 1: about throwing the ball a lot. And I think that.

990
00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:35,319
Speaker 1: So I think Pittman is a guy that I kind

991
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:39,280
Speaker 1: of look out for as as a long shot, especially

992
00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:42,719
Speaker 1: because you know, looking at his just reception perception data

993
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 1: and things like that, he just gets open. And I

994
00:44:45,120 --> 00:44:47,920
Speaker 1: think what's been holding him back more than anything, well

995
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:50,759
Speaker 1: at least last year, was Carson Wentz. So Pittman for me,

996
00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:55,319
Speaker 1: any long shots that you like sprinkling in this market, Brandon, Yeah,

997
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 1: there will.

998
00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:58,480
Speaker 4: Be no Carson Wentz slander on this podcast here today.

999
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 4: But I like the Pittman to play. He's clearly the

1000
00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 4: guy there for Indianapolis. The only reason I wouldn't bet

1001
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:06,000
Speaker 4: on him is just I worry about the run heavy thing.

1002
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:08,920
Speaker 4: So I'm looking for guys here my two long shots

1003
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:11,160
Speaker 4: where I'm hoping for more pass heavy. So I'll take

1004
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:13,839
Speaker 4: a Steeler. I'll take Deontae Johnson at forty to one.

1005
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:16,000
Speaker 4: Kind of the same case I made where you know

1006
00:45:16,040 --> 00:45:17,880
Speaker 4: Matt Kanda airing it out. They're gonna get a lot

1007
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:20,120
Speaker 4: of passing attempts, even if it drops a little bit.

1008
00:45:20,440 --> 00:45:23,040
Speaker 4: Deontay Johnson's been around ten targets a game each of

1009
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:25,319
Speaker 4: the last two years. One thing I like with him

1010
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 4: and what you'd be betting on. So his yards per

1011
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 4: catch the last two years was only ten and a

1012
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:32,440
Speaker 4: half and ten point nine, So that's terrible. You're not

1013
00:45:32,480 --> 00:45:36,680
Speaker 4: gonna win yards leader with that. However, maybe that was

1014
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 4: just Ben Roethlisberger. Maybe that noodle arm could only get

1015
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:42,319
Speaker 4: the ball out five yards down the field. So what

1016
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:44,560
Speaker 4: if you get a quarterback actually get it down the field.

1017
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:47,600
Speaker 4: Trubisky and Picking had been doing that in preseason. And

1018
00:45:47,840 --> 00:45:49,960
Speaker 4: if you jump, you know, give him, give him a

1019
00:45:50,080 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 4: hundred receptions, one hundred and ten receptions like he's been getting.

1020
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:54,879
Speaker 4: But jump the yards per catch to twelve, we're at

1021
00:45:54,920 --> 00:45:56,879
Speaker 4: thirteen hundred yards jumping at twelve and a half, we're

1022
00:45:56,880 --> 00:45:58,200
Speaker 4: getting close to fourteen hundred.

1023
00:45:58,239 --> 00:45:59,919
Speaker 3: So I think that's the angle with him.

1024
00:46:00,360 --> 00:46:02,479
Speaker 4: The other one I like, and I'm surprised how little

1025
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:04,960
Speaker 4: this guy's been talked about, is I'm gonna ros Saint

1026
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:07,359
Speaker 4: Brown of the Lions. So he's eighty to one here

1027
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:09,720
Speaker 4: he had a monster closing stretch.

1028
00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:10,920
Speaker 3: So last six games of.

1029
00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:14,439
Speaker 4: The year he had fifty one catches sixty or six

1030
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 4: fifty one catches and five touchdowns over six hundred yards.

1031
00:46:18,239 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 4: He had eight catches in all of them. He projected

1032
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:23,320
Speaker 4: over the season to one hundred and forty five catches

1033
00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:27,239
Speaker 4: almost sixteen hundred yards from that pace. Again, pacing only

1034
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:28,920
Speaker 4: works so well when you're at six games.

1035
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 3: But they added DJ Chark.

1036
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:34,239
Speaker 4: They'll get Jamison Williams eventually. But that wasn't just a

1037
00:46:34,320 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 4: random stretch. That was Ben Johnson taking over at offensive

1038
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:39,560
Speaker 4: coordinator and they opened up a lot more passing down

1039
00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:42,160
Speaker 4: the stretch. Howkinson was out, so he's gonna have to

1040
00:46:42,200 --> 00:46:44,040
Speaker 4: share the ball a little bit more now. But I

1041
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:46,600
Speaker 4: think sat Brown has really been slept on to me.

1042
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:49,520
Speaker 4: He is a Monsters sleeper in some of these categories.

1043
00:46:49,560 --> 00:46:50,200
Speaker 3: But I don't know.

1044
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 4: I'm surprised the number is not higher here and he've

1045
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:54,440
Speaker 4: been like in fantasy football, he's not higher. So am

1046
00:46:54,480 --> 00:46:55,840
Speaker 4: I missing something with him?

1047
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:58,080
Speaker 1: I mean, I love me some Mama, I say, Bron

1048
00:46:58,120 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 1: that was one of my favorite sleeper last year. Look

1049
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:03,240
Speaker 1: dead in the water halfway through too but I think

1050
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:05,560
Speaker 1: the reason he's so high here is average up the

1051
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:08,440
Speaker 1: targets like seven, So it's it's he's probably just not

1052
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:11,120
Speaker 1: going to be that guy going down the field, whereas

1053
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:13,359
Speaker 1: you know some of these other guys, like even if

1054
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:15,480
Speaker 1: you know even like like you mentioned with Deontay, his

1055
00:47:15,760 --> 00:47:19,640
Speaker 1: average up the target's been low too. But he's kind

1056
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:21,640
Speaker 1: of that guy. He's kind of there, still their number

1057
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:25,239
Speaker 1: one guy he can get open down the field. As

1058
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 1: saying Brown, I just think he's going to be used

1059
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:28,440
Speaker 1: as more of like a slot guy where they have

1060
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:30,680
Speaker 1: DJ Chark and then Jamis and Williams are going to

1061
00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:33,200
Speaker 1: run those deeper routes. So that's probably why he's there.

1062
00:47:33,239 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 1: Like I think aman rossaying Brown is actually probably a

1063
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:39,600
Speaker 1: better play in the receptions market, which we'll we'll close

1064
00:47:39,680 --> 00:47:41,239
Speaker 1: up with at the end, but let's let's jump to

1065
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:44,560
Speaker 1: receive in touchdowns. Jill, who do you like in this one?

1066
00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, we kind of touched on a second ago. Chris

1067
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:50,960
Speaker 5: and I really like Jamar Chase at nine to one.

1068
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:54,160
Speaker 5: I'm very high on the Bengals and him this year.

1069
00:47:54,520 --> 00:47:56,480
Speaker 5: For example, I really like him to win Offensive Player

1070
00:47:56,480 --> 00:47:58,200
Speaker 5: of the Year this year. At thirty to one, but

1071
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:01,680
Speaker 5: let's just talk about receiving touchdowns. So touchdown wise finished

1072
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 5: with thirteen touchdowns last year, which was three less than

1073
00:48:04,160 --> 00:48:07,280
Speaker 5: Cooper Cup on seventy less targets. I think that's important

1074
00:48:07,320 --> 00:48:10,800
Speaker 5: to note he was nineteenth overall in targets as a rookie. Again,

1075
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:13,160
Speaker 5: I just think that there's so much room for potential,

1076
00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 5: especially from the short game, and then as well in

1077
00:48:16,200 --> 00:48:19,440
Speaker 5: the red zone. Only had twelve passes to him inside

1078
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:23,280
Speaker 5: the twenty last year. With seven catches in twenty twenty one,

1079
00:48:23,800 --> 00:48:26,520
Speaker 5: that's fifty first on the list for all pass catchers

1080
00:48:26,520 --> 00:48:28,320
Speaker 5: in the NFL. So if we even just say we

1081
00:48:28,440 --> 00:48:30,760
Speaker 5: double that and put him maybe in the top twenty,

1082
00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:34,280
Speaker 5: it's just that much more upside and more potential for touchdowns.

1083
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:36,359
Speaker 5: And another thing that I'm looking at too, and this

1084
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 5: is a hedge opportunity of why I'm on Burrow and

1085
00:48:39,640 --> 00:48:43,680
Speaker 5: then also taking chase from a receiving touchdown standpoint, over

1086
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:46,760
Speaker 5: the last four seasons, the quarterback that throws the most

1087
00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:50,240
Speaker 5: touchdowns are the second most touchdowns. Their top wide receiver

1088
00:48:50,400 --> 00:48:53,360
Speaker 5: also finishes first or second in receiving touchdowns. Now that

1089
00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:56,080
Speaker 5: doesn't sound like a huge leap to think, but if

1090
00:48:56,080 --> 00:48:58,480
Speaker 5: you just look at the last four years. Tom Brady

1091
00:48:58,560 --> 00:49:01,480
Speaker 5: was first last year, Mike Evans was second, Matthew Stafford

1092
00:49:01,520 --> 00:49:04,160
Speaker 5: was second, Cooper Cup was first. Then you just look

1093
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 5: back in twenty twenty, Aaron Rodgers was first, DeVante Adams

1094
00:49:07,640 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 5: was first and receiving touchdowns in twenty nineteen, Labar Jackson

1095
00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:14,080
Speaker 5: was first, Mark Andrews was second, Mahomes was first in

1096
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:16,759
Speaker 5: twenty eighteen. Tyreek Hill was second in twenty eighteen. So

1097
00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:19,239
Speaker 5: there is a natural correlation there that if you throw

1098
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:21,680
Speaker 5: a lot of touchdowns, your wide receiver one is likely

1099
00:49:21,719 --> 00:49:23,960
Speaker 5: going to be the biggest beneficiary as a result, and

1100
00:49:24,320 --> 00:49:26,879
Speaker 5: all reports are that he looks incredible in training camp.

1101
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:30,040
Speaker 5: The connection with Burrow is to me, it's undeniable. I'm

1102
00:49:30,040 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 5: going with Jamar Chase to lead the league in touchdowns

1103
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:32,799
Speaker 5: at nine to one.

1104
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:36,520
Speaker 1: I like it. I mean, I just see this monster

1105
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:38,840
Speaker 1: season coming for Jamar Chase if he can stay healthy.

1106
00:49:38,880 --> 00:49:41,800
Speaker 1: Like it. It's like you could see two thousand yards,

1107
00:49:41,800 --> 00:49:44,120
Speaker 1: you could see you can see twenty touchdowns and you

1108
00:49:44,120 --> 00:49:47,400
Speaker 1: can see a straight up Randy Moss type season coming.

1109
00:49:47,719 --> 00:49:49,840
Speaker 1: Brandon who you got receiving touchdowns?

1110
00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:52,600
Speaker 4: So this is my favorite pick in the entire podcast.

1111
00:49:52,640 --> 00:49:54,080
Speaker 4: I feel like I said that three times. But if

1112
00:49:54,120 --> 00:49:56,000
Speaker 4: you're only making one bet and you want to take it,

1113
00:49:56,080 --> 00:49:59,200
Speaker 4: that's gonna pay off. Mike Evans eight to one receiving

1114
00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:02,160
Speaker 4: touchdowns as my guy. Look, Jill kind of just made

1115
00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:04,279
Speaker 4: the case for Mike Evans here. Tom Brady is the

1116
00:50:04,280 --> 00:50:06,840
Speaker 4: favorite to leave the league in passing touchdowns. We know

1117
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:09,800
Speaker 4: Mike Evans is a huge red zone threat. He scored

1118
00:50:09,840 --> 00:50:12,759
Speaker 4: thirteen touchdowns two years ago, fourteen last year. So with

1119
00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 4: Tom Brady he's getting the touchdowns each year. Chris Godwin

1120
00:50:16,160 --> 00:50:19,080
Speaker 4: is out for a while, Rob Gronkowski is retired or

1121
00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:23,600
Speaker 4: retired until he unretires. Antonio Brown is not there. Gronk

1122
00:50:23,640 --> 00:50:26,080
Speaker 4: and Brown were big red zone threats last year, Godwin

1123
00:50:26,160 --> 00:50:28,719
Speaker 4: less so. But it's another name that like they're gonna

1124
00:50:28,719 --> 00:50:30,959
Speaker 4: be feeding Mike Evans. I think in the red zone

1125
00:50:31,280 --> 00:50:33,319
Speaker 4: and Brady is great, get him the ball down there.

1126
00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:36,319
Speaker 4: I think Mike Evans should be I would put him

1127
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:38,840
Speaker 4: if I was setting lines, he would be the most

1128
00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:42,040
Speaker 4: favorite of any one of these categories. I have him

1129
00:50:42,080 --> 00:50:45,200
Speaker 4: at fifteen projected touchdowns and I have anyone else above twelve,

1130
00:50:45,480 --> 00:50:47,239
Speaker 4: So that doesn't seem like a lot but that's a

1131
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:49,880
Speaker 4: twenty five percent advantage on everyone else on the list,

1132
00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 4: so plus eight hundred to me, he's a clear favorite here,

1133
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 4: and this is my favorite bet on the board.

1134
00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:57,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think I love Mike Evans because he

1135
00:50:58,000 --> 00:51:01,600
Speaker 1: just doesn't really get hurt and you just know what

1136
00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:03,800
Speaker 1: you're going to get from him every single week, weekend,

1137
00:51:03,840 --> 00:51:06,719
Speaker 1: week out, and he doesn't have to catch even a

1138
00:51:06,719 --> 00:51:08,279
Speaker 1: lot of passes get a out of yards to get

1139
00:51:08,320 --> 00:51:10,399
Speaker 1: a out of touchdowns, like me and Sean always joke

1140
00:51:10,440 --> 00:51:14,480
Speaker 1: Sean Kerner that you know Mike Evans like go to

1141
00:51:14,600 --> 00:51:19,440
Speaker 1: stat line, two catches, two yards, two touchdowns, like the

1142
00:51:19,520 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 1: Mike Evin's special. So I can't hate on that one

1143
00:51:22,600 --> 00:51:25,920
Speaker 1: at all. I know. I see, I see. You have

1144
00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:28,160
Speaker 1: a couple of long shots here and I love them,

1145
00:51:28,200 --> 00:51:30,320
Speaker 1: So talk to me about those, Brandon.

1146
00:51:30,719 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, so first long shot Adam Thielen forty to one,

1147
00:51:34,000 --> 00:51:36,359
Speaker 4: and I agree with what Jill said. I think that

1148
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 4: Feeling is a real threat in the red zone. He's

1149
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:41,080
Speaker 4: spent a big touchdowns guy, and so I don't want

1150
00:51:41,080 --> 00:51:43,799
Speaker 4: to bet Jefferson here. I actually would bet Feeling because

1151
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:45,839
Speaker 4: I think that they're about even. I have them both

1152
00:51:45,840 --> 00:51:48,759
Speaker 4: around twelve touchdowns, but the number is obviously way better

1153
00:51:48,800 --> 00:51:51,440
Speaker 4: for feeling. He had ten last year and only played

1154
00:51:51,480 --> 00:51:54,439
Speaker 4: thirteen games, so you know, we'll see he's a little

1155
00:51:54,440 --> 00:51:54,759
Speaker 4: bit older.

1156
00:51:54,760 --> 00:51:55,239
Speaker 3: We need them to.

1157
00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:57,640
Speaker 4: Stay healthy for us for the most part, but that's

1158
00:51:57,680 --> 00:52:00,640
Speaker 4: pays for thirteen last year. We're expecting more touchdowns. We

1159
00:52:00,719 --> 00:52:03,759
Speaker 4: talked about Kirk Cousins and the Kevin O'Connell offense, so

1160
00:52:03,880 --> 00:52:05,279
Speaker 4: I think that he has a real chance to be

1161
00:52:05,360 --> 00:52:07,399
Speaker 4: in to play here. All is a big touchdown guy,

1162
00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:09,879
Speaker 4: and then I like Courtland Sutton at sixty to one.

1163
00:52:10,160 --> 00:52:12,440
Speaker 4: To me, Cortland Sun is the new DK Metcalf. So

1164
00:52:12,920 --> 00:52:16,000
Speaker 4: DK Metcalf had ten and twelve touchdowns the last two years.

1165
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:18,319
Speaker 4: Sutton is the guy that's getting all the hype out

1166
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:21,880
Speaker 4: of Denver. Jerry Judy the inside you know, guy running

1167
00:52:22,040 --> 00:52:24,920
Speaker 4: the inside routes. That's not Russell Wilson's game. Russell Wilson

1168
00:52:25,000 --> 00:52:27,239
Speaker 4: wants to just air it out down the sideline, and

1169
00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:29,080
Speaker 4: I think there's not a lot of options.

1170
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:30,160
Speaker 3: It's gonna have to be Sutton.

1171
00:52:30,200 --> 00:52:33,200
Speaker 4: I think in Denver so his targets should bounce back

1172
00:52:33,239 --> 00:52:36,560
Speaker 4: up with the real quarterback. It's second year back from injury.

1173
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 4: We know that that helps as well, and I just

1174
00:52:38,680 --> 00:52:40,360
Speaker 4: think that he could be a really big threat. So

1175
00:52:40,480 --> 00:52:42,719
Speaker 4: Thielan forty to one and Sutton sixty to one.

1176
00:52:43,440 --> 00:52:45,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love that thinking because I think you go

1177
00:52:45,800 --> 00:52:47,879
Speaker 1: back to like, who who are we kind of thinking

1178
00:52:47,920 --> 00:52:52,960
Speaker 1: about as some longer shots for most touchdowns and then Jill,

1179
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:55,759
Speaker 1: as you talked about, there's a correlation there. So I

1180
00:52:55,840 --> 00:52:59,240
Speaker 1: really I really like Devon and Sutton because I really

1181
00:52:59,280 --> 00:53:02,640
Speaker 1: like cousins and in that market, so I think, you know,

1182
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:05,080
Speaker 1: it perfectly winds up and feeling. I mean, it's kind

1183
00:53:05,080 --> 00:53:08,120
Speaker 1: of like Josh Jacobs. It's like if there's certain players,

1184
00:53:08,120 --> 00:53:10,160
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's because of fantasy or what,

1185
00:53:10,440 --> 00:53:13,400
Speaker 1: but it's like they just get written off and I

1186
00:53:13,440 --> 00:53:16,440
Speaker 1: feel like they're still very you know, like very like

1187
00:53:16,719 --> 00:53:18,560
Speaker 1: they're not they might not be like the best players

1188
00:53:18,719 --> 00:53:21,359
Speaker 1: at their positions, but they're still very good players that

1189
00:53:21,560 --> 00:53:25,200
Speaker 1: can do certain things well and score touchdowns is definitely

1190
00:53:25,200 --> 00:53:27,759
Speaker 1: one of them, for both of them. So I think

1191
00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:29,759
Speaker 1: I think those are the kind of guys that we

1192
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:33,240
Speaker 1: should be betting on. Let's close it out with receptions,

1193
00:53:33,760 --> 00:53:38,360
Speaker 1: and I know we'll recap guys' best bets, but in

1194
00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:42,759
Speaker 1: this receptions market, Brandon, where we looking at. I know

1195
00:53:42,800 --> 00:53:44,960
Speaker 1: we want, you know, probably like at least six catches

1196
00:53:45,000 --> 00:53:45,720
Speaker 1: a game, right.

1197
00:53:46,000 --> 00:53:48,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, at least six a game. That's basically one hundred catches.

1198
00:53:48,480 --> 00:53:50,520
Speaker 4: We've had ten or twelve guys do that every year,

1199
00:53:50,560 --> 00:53:52,440
Speaker 4: so that's not gonna be enough. We're gonna need probably

1200
00:53:52,440 --> 00:53:55,000
Speaker 4: one hundred and twenty five. The last four years our

1201
00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:57,120
Speaker 4: winners had at least one hundred and twenty five catches.

1202
00:53:57,520 --> 00:53:59,640
Speaker 4: We've had a Michael Thomas here, we had Cooper Cup,

1203
00:54:00,160 --> 00:54:02,360
Speaker 4: like one hundred and fifty almost. If that's the case,

1204
00:54:02,560 --> 00:54:05,279
Speaker 4: we have no way to project that forward. So yeah,

1205
00:54:05,360 --> 00:54:07,560
Speaker 4: I think one twenty five is a good number to target.

1206
00:54:07,840 --> 00:54:09,759
Speaker 4: I have two guys on my board. They're projected a

1207
00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:11,759
Speaker 4: one hundred and thirty catches, and I've talked about both

1208
00:54:11,760 --> 00:54:14,879
Speaker 4: of them already. My favorite here is Justin Jefferson ten

1209
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:16,680
Speaker 4: to one. Again, I have him at one hundred and

1210
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:19,400
Speaker 4: thirty catches eighteen hundred and fifty yards. I will say,

1211
00:54:19,600 --> 00:54:21,160
Speaker 4: if you're only going to play one of them, I

1212
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:24,160
Speaker 4: like yards better than receptions because I think that he's

1213
00:54:24,160 --> 00:54:26,600
Speaker 4: going to have high yards per catch and get that

1214
00:54:26,680 --> 00:54:29,200
Speaker 4: long play. So if you only pick one yardage, a

1215
00:54:29,200 --> 00:54:31,520
Speaker 4: little better for him. My other guy here, and you

1216
00:54:31,600 --> 00:54:34,440
Speaker 4: hinted at this earlier, Raybon, I'm gonna as Saint Brown.

1217
00:54:34,600 --> 00:54:36,879
Speaker 4: This is the spot to play him forty to one,

1218
00:54:37,000 --> 00:54:38,959
Speaker 4: So it's not as juicy of odds as the eighty

1219
00:54:38,960 --> 00:54:42,319
Speaker 4: to one on yards, but that's because the receptions can

1220
00:54:42,360 --> 00:54:44,480
Speaker 4: be there even if the A dot is not there.

1221
00:54:44,600 --> 00:54:49,000
Speaker 4: So now I project him well, that closing stretch projects

1222
00:54:49,080 --> 00:54:51,799
Speaker 4: him to one hundred and forty five catches. That's over

1223
00:54:51,840 --> 00:54:54,800
Speaker 4: over six games, so projected out, that's not quite fair,

1224
00:54:55,160 --> 00:54:57,120
Speaker 4: but I think one hundred and thirty would be totally

1225
00:54:57,160 --> 00:55:00,000
Speaker 4: in play there with the way that Johnson open up

1226
00:55:00,080 --> 00:55:03,120
Speaker 4: that offense. And I'm not really that afraid of DJ

1227
00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:05,960
Speaker 4: Shark stealing a lot of looks. Jameson Williams. We don't

1228
00:55:06,000 --> 00:55:08,319
Speaker 4: know if or when he'll play at all, So I

1229
00:55:08,320 --> 00:55:10,799
Speaker 4: think Alana Rock could get a lot of target share

1230
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:13,359
Speaker 4: in that offense, and a lot of those but you know.

1231
00:55:13,400 --> 00:55:14,320
Speaker 3: Short easy looks.

1232
00:55:14,360 --> 00:55:17,480
Speaker 4: Like you said seven yards per target, I don't really care.

1233
00:55:17,560 --> 00:55:19,359
Speaker 4: You can get zero yards per target, you can get

1234
00:55:19,400 --> 00:55:21,880
Speaker 4: all sorts of bubble screens and one yard outs and

1235
00:55:21,960 --> 00:55:24,560
Speaker 4: whatever you want to do. Just give me those receptions.

1236
00:55:24,600 --> 00:55:27,520
Speaker 4: So forty to one, he's another long shot.

1237
00:55:27,520 --> 00:55:28,319
Speaker 3: I really like here.

1238
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:31,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you kind of see it right, like the odds,

1239
00:55:31,080 --> 00:55:34,480
Speaker 1: you know, they're cutting half when you look at this market,

1240
00:55:34,480 --> 00:55:36,120
Speaker 1: and I think that's that's kind of the right way

1241
00:55:36,120 --> 00:55:38,080
Speaker 1: to do it though, because it's still forty to one,

1242
00:55:38,160 --> 00:55:39,759
Speaker 1: it's still not a lot of people are going to

1243
00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:43,840
Speaker 1: be thinking about him or betting on him. So and

1244
00:55:44,280 --> 00:55:46,879
Speaker 1: again it's the eight out actually helps in this situation too.

1245
00:55:46,960 --> 00:55:49,520
Speaker 1: It's you want low a dot because low a dot

1246
00:55:49,560 --> 00:55:54,560
Speaker 1: passes our higher efficiency. Like there's a winnear relationship between

1247
00:55:54,560 --> 00:55:57,480
Speaker 1: how far down the field quarterback throws the ball and

1248
00:55:57,520 --> 00:56:00,560
Speaker 1: it's completion percentage, right, So if Amona rossaing Rounds catching

1249
00:56:00,560 --> 00:56:02,839
Speaker 1: the ball seven yards down the field, he's going to catch,

1250
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:05,239
Speaker 1: you know, eighty eighty five percent of those balls that

1251
00:56:05,320 --> 00:56:08,080
Speaker 1: he's catching it with like seven yards of fewer, and

1252
00:56:08,120 --> 00:56:10,239
Speaker 1: then obviously it'll go down as for some of his

1253
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:13,600
Speaker 1: deeper targets. But that's really what you want in this

1254
00:56:13,719 --> 00:56:16,120
Speaker 1: kind of market. Do you know any thoughts on Amanra?

1255
00:56:17,640 --> 00:56:19,800
Speaker 5: I think a manra. I think my biggest issue is

1256
00:56:19,840 --> 00:56:22,719
Speaker 5: who's thrown them the ball. I mean, I'm not trying

1257
00:56:22,760 --> 00:56:25,400
Speaker 5: to be a hater, but Jared Goff just doesn't do

1258
00:56:25,480 --> 00:56:29,320
Speaker 5: it for me. Again, not really a sexy pick for receptions.

1259
00:56:29,320 --> 00:56:32,720
Speaker 5: But so much has been made about the connection between

1260
00:56:32,800 --> 00:56:35,160
Speaker 5: Carr and Davante Adams that Davante Adams at ten to

1261
00:56:35,200 --> 00:56:37,319
Speaker 5: one is really kind of standing out to me. Is

1262
00:56:37,480 --> 00:56:41,080
Speaker 5: where I really feel like, just from a passing attempt standpoint,

1263
00:56:42,000 --> 00:56:43,520
Speaker 5: they're going to force it to him a lot. They

1264
00:56:43,600 --> 00:56:46,680
Speaker 5: paid him so much money to come there, the amount

1265
00:56:46,680 --> 00:56:48,560
Speaker 5: of draft capital they gave up, They're not just going

1266
00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:50,759
Speaker 5: to use him as a decoy. I think he could

1267
00:56:50,760 --> 00:56:52,879
Speaker 5: probably lead the League of receptions as a result. Don't

1268
00:56:52,880 --> 00:56:55,680
Speaker 5: necessarily mean that translates to winning, but I do feel

1269
00:56:55,680 --> 00:56:58,400
Speaker 5: like from a reception standpoint, if he plays all seventeen,

1270
00:56:58,640 --> 00:56:59,919
Speaker 5: he's going to be right there at the top.

1271
00:57:02,000 --> 00:57:04,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I mean Devonte Adams is always you know,

1272
00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:07,920
Speaker 1: he gets open. He just gets open so much that

1273
00:57:08,200 --> 00:57:10,960
Speaker 1: it's it kind of goes without saying, But I really

1274
00:57:11,000 --> 00:57:13,359
Speaker 1: do like that Amara Ross Saint brown Claw. I think

1275
00:57:13,400 --> 00:57:15,600
Speaker 1: that's the one guy, you know that's really sticks out

1276
00:57:16,080 --> 00:57:19,080
Speaker 1: that far down the list. Everyone else I think is

1277
00:57:19,160 --> 00:57:22,120
Speaker 1: priced fairly correctly, you know, Like I still like a

1278
00:57:22,160 --> 00:57:24,800
Speaker 1: lot of the same guys that that I would like

1279
00:57:24,840 --> 00:57:27,000
Speaker 1: in other markets are just you know how the way

1280
00:57:27,000 --> 00:57:28,760
Speaker 1: I would project about I mean, I think Keenan Allen

1281
00:57:28,800 --> 00:57:31,320
Speaker 1: at sixteen to one makes a lot of sense. I

1282
00:57:31,320 --> 00:57:33,760
Speaker 1: think Michael Pittman at twenty five to one. But you know,

1283
00:57:33,880 --> 00:57:36,320
Speaker 1: there's nothing that really jumps out to me in the

1284
00:57:36,360 --> 00:57:39,360
Speaker 1: way that Aman Rod does at forty to one. A

1285
00:57:39,400 --> 00:57:41,800
Speaker 1: guy who's just and I think the Lions are going

1286
00:57:41,840 --> 00:57:43,200
Speaker 1: to be a shootout team, by the way. Let me

1287
00:57:43,280 --> 00:57:45,480
Speaker 1: let me say that right now. Like their offensive line

1288
00:57:45,520 --> 00:57:48,560
Speaker 1: is great, you know, all five guys are great on

1289
00:57:48,600 --> 00:57:51,520
Speaker 1: the offensive line. Their defense, their secondary is still going

1290
00:57:51,600 --> 00:57:53,920
Speaker 1: to be shaky. And that's even if Okuda kind of

1291
00:57:53,920 --> 00:57:57,880
Speaker 1: takes a week forward. And Jared Goff, I mean, you

1292
00:57:57,880 --> 00:58:00,520
Speaker 1: can hate on him, but his bread and butter is

1293
00:58:00,560 --> 00:58:03,800
Speaker 1: those you know underneath kind of short area throws like

1294
00:58:03,880 --> 00:58:05,640
Speaker 1: That's that's why a lot of people do hate on

1295
00:58:05,680 --> 00:58:07,680
Speaker 1: him because he's you know, he's not a guy who's

1296
00:58:07,680 --> 00:58:09,960
Speaker 1: gonna you know, hold onto the ball, not a guy

1297
00:58:09,960 --> 00:58:11,880
Speaker 1: who's gonna do a lot of damage down the field.

1298
00:58:11,960 --> 00:58:14,840
Speaker 1: But you know, he gets you know, it's seven yard pass.

1299
00:58:14,880 --> 00:58:17,040
Speaker 1: He can keep you know, jacking those in there. At

1300
00:58:17,080 --> 00:58:20,640
Speaker 1: to aman Ross. So I really like that that that call.

1301
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:22,680
Speaker 1: I think that's the guy that you want to be

1302
00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:27,160
Speaker 1: targeting in this market. All right, let's let's recap because

1303
00:58:27,160 --> 00:58:29,760
Speaker 1: we went to a lot on this show. Uh So,

1304
00:58:29,880 --> 00:58:34,160
Speaker 1: let's recap Best bets. Joe al Starwert to who are

1305
00:58:34,160 --> 00:58:36,400
Speaker 1: your best bets for season leaders this year?

1306
00:58:36,880 --> 00:58:39,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, So I'm gonna go with the Cincinnati Bengals connection.

1307
00:58:39,760 --> 00:58:42,680
Speaker 5: Going with Joe Burrow for most passing touchdowns and Jamar

1308
00:58:42,800 --> 00:58:46,280
Speaker 5: Chase most receiving touchdowns Burrow at ten to one, Chase

1309
00:58:46,320 --> 00:58:48,400
Speaker 5: at nine to one. Really loves