1 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. 2 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy. Tracy, you said something 3 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:21,400 Speaker 1: on a recent episode, and I don't remember which one 4 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 1: it was, um, one of our macro ones, maybe like 5 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 1: Neil and Connor or something like that. This idea is 6 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 1: still that we sort of talk about, like relief at 7 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:34,519 Speaker 1: the idea of labor market soft right, it's kind of perverse. 8 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 1: First of all, thank you so much for listening to 9 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 1: what I say. I really appreciate that. Secondly, I think 10 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: what I said is it feels really weird that you 11 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 1: have a central bank, specifically the Federal Reserve, that is 12 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 1: saying basically that they want to push the unemployment right up. Yeah, 13 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 1: and significantly. Right. So we're at round three and a 14 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 1: half percent unemployment right now fifty which sounds great. That 15 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 1: seems unambiguously good, and especially you know, after coming after 16 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 1: years of slow labor market growth. Um, some of the 17 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:11,120 Speaker 1: fears during the worst of the COVID pandemic about how 18 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:13,959 Speaker 1: how much unemployment there is, and yet here we are, 19 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 1: and it's almost always talked about as a problem to 20 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:20,880 Speaker 1: be solved rather than an opportunity to be embraced. Yeah, 21 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 1: there's always concern that you're running an economy too hot 22 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 1: if employment gets too low, But then that just brings 23 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 1: up all these really big picture questions about well, what 24 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 1: is the economy for anyway? Shouldn't we be aiming for 25 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:38,560 Speaker 1: a system that kind of works for everyone where you know, 26 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: hopefully the unemployment rate is very very low. But I 27 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 1: guess the risk is and the concern is that you 28 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 1: don't want to run it in such a way that 29 00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 1: it starts pushing up prices and you get this unrelenting inflation, right, 30 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 1: and inflation is bad and people, it hurts people, and 31 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 1: people don't like it. But nonetheless, I think people find 32 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 1: it strange that the central bank is part of what 33 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 1: they see as an outcome of optable monetary policy would 34 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 1: put so many, you know, at least another million to 35 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 1: have people out of work. They find it's strange when 36 00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 1: weak labor market data often leads to a stock market 37 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:13,639 Speaker 1: railly right, the whole bad news is good news for 38 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: stocks perverse. And you know, you think, like, Okay, a 39 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:19,360 Speaker 1: lot of people have jobs, that means a lot of spending, 40 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 1: corporate profits really high, Like do you think these are 41 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:24,640 Speaker 1: like good things? And yet at some level it's like 42 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:26,520 Speaker 1: all of this is bad, and I do and I 43 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 1: think like we shouldn't just jump away from that, like 44 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:32,519 Speaker 1: we shouldn't sort of move on. And of course there's 45 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 1: a room to discuss soft land things and all that, 46 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:36,959 Speaker 1: but some of these route questions I think are still 47 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 1: worth out thinking about, Like why do investors hate full employment? Yeah, yeah, 48 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 1: exactly right. So I'm really excited about our guests. So 49 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:48,360 Speaker 1: one of the one of the economists from the old 50 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:50,919 Speaker 1: days that people sometimes talk about when they're talking about 51 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 1: the political economy of full employment or maximum employment. On 52 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:59,120 Speaker 1: economist named Michael Kalski um has talked about this his 53 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 1: work uh comes up every once in a while. So 54 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:05,080 Speaker 1: we're gonna be speaking to an economist who himself has 55 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:07,800 Speaker 1: studied a lot of Kletzki's work and has done an 56 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 1: own his own work on a lot of these questions, 57 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:13,240 Speaker 1: trying to understand a little bit more about this attention 58 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:16,520 Speaker 1: that full employment, full employment brings. We're gonna be speaking 59 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 1: to a Yan Toparowski, a professor at so Is University 60 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 1: in London, and uh So, Professor Taparowski, thank you so 61 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 1: much for coming on odd lots, Thank you very much 62 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 1: for inviting me. Why don't you tell us a little 63 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 1: bit about your what your your work and your research 64 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:34,639 Speaker 1: and sort of like what what drove you to sort 65 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:39,839 Speaker 1: of focus on some of these topics When I came into, uh, 66 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 1: this kind of work, I actually came across Kalski when 67 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:49,960 Speaker 1: when I was when I first came to study economics. 68 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 1: Now at the time when I actually didn't do my 69 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 1: undergraduate studies in economics, it was more in sociology and 70 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: political science, um and what. The first job that I 71 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 1: got was in fund management for the Church of England 72 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:10,800 Speaker 1: for an institution called the August Institutional, the Church Commissioners 73 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 1: for England. And because I had had I had done 74 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 1: one course in introductory economics, they thought, well, he knows 75 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: something about it, and they put me into the best 76 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 1: Change Investments department. Now this was in nineteen seventy four. 77 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 1: You're you're obviously too young to remember what happened around 78 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:40,480 Speaker 1: nineteen seventy four, But there was an oil price shock 79 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 1: which in England was rapidly followed by a collapse in 80 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 1: the real estate market, a collapse on the in the 81 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:59,320 Speaker 1: stock market. A couple of brokers brokerage houses went bust, 82 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:05,719 Speaker 1: UH banks started some some of the mark fringe banks 83 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:12,919 Speaker 1: UH went bust, A major bank tottered. The Bank of 84 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:17,600 Speaker 1: England had to call in the senior City of London 85 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 1: figures to try and shore up the position. UH. And 86 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 1: for me, you know, as as a newcomer to all 87 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 1: of this, I thought this was tremendously exciting. But I thought, well, 88 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 1: I need to find out more about it. I need 89 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 1: to study economics. So I went. I registered at Birkbeck College, 90 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:45,680 Speaker 1: part of the University of London, for an MSc in economics. UH. 91 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 1: And I was actually greatly disappointed. Was all my professors 92 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:53,159 Speaker 1: would stand up and say, look, we have this general 93 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:58,840 Speaker 1: equilibrium model at the economy and my my my senior professor, 94 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 1: the senior professor there, a very distinguished American British economist. 95 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 1: I remember standing in class and saying, look at the 96 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 1: economy out there, it's in equilibrium. We know it's in equilibrium. 97 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:20,040 Speaker 1: You know the models say so. And I remember sitting 98 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:23,760 Speaker 1: there thinking, I don't know what world this man lives in. 99 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:27,279 Speaker 1: You know what he was saying. You had no bearing, 100 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:31,919 Speaker 1: should no understanding of what was really going on. I 101 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:34,840 Speaker 1: remember going down into the library and flicking through some 102 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 1: books and coming across a Polish name Kalitsky, and I thought, oh, 103 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:43,719 Speaker 1: I wonder what he has to say about this. I 104 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:47,839 Speaker 1: didn't realize that there was there any distinguished Polish economists. 105 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:52,159 Speaker 1: So I started reading the book and it was his 106 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:57,280 Speaker 1: early essays on the business cycle, and suddenly it all 107 00:06:57,320 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 1: made sense, uh, And it's continue to make sense since then. Albeit, 108 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:07,040 Speaker 1: I think I take a rather different for you too, 109 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 1: many followers of of me, how Kalitski in a sense 110 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 1: that I'm I have this background in in banking and 111 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 1: finance side. This has always been my approach to the 112 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 1: work of Kalitzski. So I think your your question issues 113 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 1: that you're raising are absolutely fundamental to my understanding of Klitzki, 114 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:37,240 Speaker 1: and I wish they were more fundamental to the understanding 115 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:43,160 Speaker 1: of many, uh, many of my friends and colleagues who 116 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 1: uh you know follow Klitski. Well, yeah, talk to us 117 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 1: then about what it was that you read that made 118 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 1: sense to you. And I'm particularly interested in the relationship 119 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 1: between the business cycle and you know, theoretical equilibrium levels 120 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 1: and full employment as as you kind of just alluded to, 121 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:12,400 Speaker 1: the general equilibrium approach is essentially a static approach. It 122 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 1: tells you what situation will arise where there will be 123 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: no further change. Uh. And this actually doesn't happen in 124 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 1: the real world. What you have in the in the 125 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 1: real world is a constant state of flux. And this 126 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 1: is why Kalitzki's approach to economics, focusing on a business 127 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:49,840 Speaker 1: cycle uh, I think, is really much more satisfying than 128 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 1: than the approach, for example, of Kines in the general theory, 129 00:08:55,520 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 1: which is which was essentially a static approach to a 130 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 1: problem that is fundamentally dynamic. So what don't you explain? 131 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 1: Because when I think of you know, Canes also wrestled 132 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 1: with these topics of why don't why doesn't a market 133 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:15,960 Speaker 1: economy on its own create full employment? Why is investment 134 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:18,960 Speaker 1: inadequate in typical times? Why do we tend to these 135 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:23,199 Speaker 1: periods of stagnation? How did Kollecgi differ from Canes and 136 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:27,440 Speaker 1: these questions? Well, let me start off with what he 137 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 1: agreed with Kane's on and he agreed with Kanes that 138 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:43,200 Speaker 1: capitalism is fundamentally a system that in which the level 139 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 1: of output, the overall level of output, and the overall 140 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:51,959 Speaker 1: level of employment is determined by the level of investment, 141 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 1: the level of business investment. Now, obviously in the in 142 00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 1: the post war, post Second World War economy, the government 143 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 1: also has Government spending also has a lot to do 144 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 1: with it. But fundamentally the in the the private sector. 145 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:14,079 Speaker 1: The level of activity in the private sectors really determined 146 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:20,280 Speaker 1: by the level of investment. And the question is what 147 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:24,560 Speaker 1: causes that level of investment to be unstable, much much 148 00:10:24,559 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 1: more unstable than for example, consumption. Uh and they This 149 00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 1: was an answer that in many respects tormented Coltsky throughout 150 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:44,160 Speaker 1: his life. He would put forward various models and then 151 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:49,240 Speaker 1: reflect on them and decide that no, they that they 152 00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 1: were wrong. Kane's sort of tried to cover up this 153 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 1: problem by saying, or what it was all due to 154 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:06,920 Speaker 1: animal spirits. It's all due to uncertainty. And the problem 155 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:13,840 Speaker 1: with this is that you know uncertainty and um an 156 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:20,000 Speaker 1: animal spirits are not um measurable in the same way 157 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:24,680 Speaker 1: that for example, steel production is measurable. It's really pushing 158 00:11:25,880 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 1: the solution onto what cannot be seen and cannot be observed. 159 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:38,400 Speaker 1: And Clitski. Clitki's background was as an engineer, and he 160 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:47,560 Speaker 1: found this deeply, deeply unsatisfactory. Tried to resolve it. Certainly, 161 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:52,000 Speaker 1: he thought that the rate of interest didn't have uh 162 00:11:53,040 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 1: much impact. He businessman, he thought, were on the whole 163 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:04,440 Speaker 1: much more much more cynical, much more hard bitten than 164 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 1: to be influenced by let's say, ephemeral moods uh and 165 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:17,760 Speaker 1: and temperament. In fact, the way in which corporations are constructed, 166 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 1: that the hierarchical, bureaucratic way in which business corporations are 167 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:30,560 Speaker 1: constructed is is really in order to eliminate the effect 168 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 1: of you know, passions and biases on issues like investment. 169 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:43,800 Speaker 1: In the end, what what critic you thought was really 170 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:51,679 Speaker 1: most importantly it was the issue of capacity utilization. Businesses 171 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:59,959 Speaker 1: will invest if there if they've got customers that cannot 172 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:06,479 Speaker 1: be satisfied from existing production, uh even at full capacity. 173 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:12,319 Speaker 1: And what they will then do is if let's say, 174 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:15,520 Speaker 1: if the restaurant is full and there are still customers 175 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 1: at the door, then the restaurant owner will invest in 176 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:27,360 Speaker 1: more tables more, you know, expanded his premises. So and 177 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:30,600 Speaker 1: he then explained it, interestingly enough in in the form 178 00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:35,960 Speaker 1: of a very nice parable. He said in in uh, 179 00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:42,320 Speaker 1: in the United States, there are cities which are joined 180 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:46,000 Speaker 1: by more than one railway line, and the effect of 181 00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:49,720 Speaker 1: their camp if you have, if they're both operating at 182 00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:54,800 Speaker 1: less than full capacity, uh, the effects of competition between 183 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:58,560 Speaker 1: them will be that eventually one of those railway lines 184 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:03,200 Speaker 1: will uh go out of business and you'll end up 185 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:09,679 Speaker 1: in a situation with much less capacity uh and actually 186 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 1: much less employment, much much much less output. So what 187 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 1: is the answer to this problem of under utilization of capacity? 188 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 1: And build a third railway exactly you've read the article, Uh, 189 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 1: it's it's a lovely parable. And then, of course the 190 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 1: first two railway lines will be busy ferrying all the 191 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 1: workers and the steel and required to for building the 192 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 1: third railway line. And then of course you've now got 193 00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 1: three railway lines. At the end of this year, you 194 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 1: now have three railway lines. What you do then? And 195 00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:55,360 Speaker 1: so he said, well, the answer is you build a 196 00:14:55,360 --> 00:15:00,800 Speaker 1: fourth railway line and then problem and ye and he said, well, 197 00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 1: you know, all this sounds paradoxical, and but he said, well, 198 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 1: it's the system that's paradoxical. And the reason why it's 199 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:14,360 Speaker 1: paradoxical is that it's a system that depends on the 200 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 1: level of investment. And what's critical about the level of 201 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:21,840 Speaker 1: investment is that it's the level of investment that, according 202 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 1: to Kalitsky but also Kines uh determines how much profits 203 00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:34,400 Speaker 1: businesses will make. Businesses invest a lot, they will make 204 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 1: a lot of in profits. If they don't invest so much, 205 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:48,480 Speaker 1: then it's uh, it doesn't you You you have this 206 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:57,320 Speaker 1: problem of excess capacity, uh, discouraging economic activity, discouraging investment. 207 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 1: So my understanding of Knes is that, you know, Canes 208 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 1: also wrote a lot about the business cycle and believed 209 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:24,920 Speaker 1: that the business cycle could be managed in one way 210 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 1: or another through monetary policy or smoothed in some way. 211 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 1: What does Kletski say about managing the business cycles or 212 00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:39,200 Speaker 1: investment given its importance in the cycle. Well, Kletski thought 213 00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 1: that managing the economy by trying to influence the level 214 00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:50,800 Speaker 1: of investment, it's really a fool's game because you, uh, 215 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 1: for example, you may lower the rate of interest or 216 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:57,520 Speaker 1: lower the rate of taxation. Uh, you know, give additional 217 00:16:57,600 --> 00:17:04,160 Speaker 1: tax allowances, and uh then you find that, okay, business 218 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:09,240 Speaker 1: takes it takes up a certain amount of investment, does 219 00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:16,480 Speaker 1: some investment, and then requires further tax cuts, further cuts 220 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:21,200 Speaker 1: in the rate of interest in order to invest further. 221 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:27,720 Speaker 1: And it really, um, it really doesn't make sense. It 222 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:30,919 Speaker 1: doesn't make It didn't make sense for Kalitzky because the 223 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:37,200 Speaker 1: purpose of investment shouldn't be to maintain full employment. There 224 00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:42,439 Speaker 1: are other instruments for doing this. Uh, the purpose of 225 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:46,920 Speaker 1: investment should be to provide the capacity for the amount 226 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:52,159 Speaker 1: of consumption that is required in the economy. That you know, 227 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 1: that's that's how a rational economy would operate. So this 228 00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:01,760 Speaker 1: again was a small difference between Canes and Kaletski. Canes 229 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:09,960 Speaker 1: wanted UH investment to be the leader. Kaletski argued that 230 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:15,399 Speaker 1: in fact, you can create the equivalent of an investment 231 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 1: boom through fiscal stimulus. It has the same effect of 232 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:26,840 Speaker 1: expanding profits and in particularly using the fiscal stimulus to 233 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:32,159 Speaker 1: provide additional public goods and public services which would be 234 00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 1: provided free. So this gets around the problem of raising wages. 235 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 1: You can increase real wages by providing free public goods. 236 00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:48,440 Speaker 1: And then, of course the other way is to redistribute 237 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 1: income from hiring incomes to lower incomes again by by 238 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 1: various transfer payments. So to bring it up to today, 239 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:02,359 Speaker 1: and I don't know if we have full employment because 240 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:04,240 Speaker 1: I'm not even I'm not even sure what that means. 241 00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 1: But we have very low unemployment, the lowest in fifty years. Um. 242 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 1: Some might say, okay, that's close to full employment, but 243 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:15,400 Speaker 1: that's a separate debate. But people there's like this, it's 244 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:18,640 Speaker 1: it repels people. It's ah, there's it's almost like there's 245 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:20,720 Speaker 1: like these white blood cells of the economy and it's 246 00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:23,399 Speaker 1: like the Fed is coming in, it wants to raise rates. 247 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 1: It talks about how the optimal situation would be at 248 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:28,000 Speaker 1: least a one percent increase, one and a half billion 249 00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 1: people laid off. You have investors who gets sort of 250 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 1: a sense of relief every time the labor market data 251 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:38,000 Speaker 1: comes in week. Why is there this discomfort in a 252 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 1: state of the economy which, on paper you think lots 253 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 1: of spending good, lots of reason to invest do capex good, 254 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 1: that's everyone's investment to someone else's income. Why is there 255 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 1: this sort of like rebellion against that? Can let's keep 256 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:58,880 Speaker 1: put it in A argued that it's it's purely political. Um. 257 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 1: He said that this he argued his faith in his 258 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:06,960 Speaker 1: famous article, uh, political aspects of full Employment, which I 259 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 1: would recommend to anyone who doesn't know much Klitzki is 260 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:13,679 Speaker 1: very very easy to read. It. Not a single equation, 261 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:21,159 Speaker 1: but he oughta good he argued. There, but you know, 262 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:26,000 Speaker 1: there's no doubt that full employment is more rational for 263 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:29,959 Speaker 1: the system as a whole. It's more rational. Profits are higher, 264 00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 1: employment is higher. Everything is better if you have full employment. However, 265 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:46,960 Speaker 1: full employment strikes at the heart of another feature of capitalism, 266 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:51,879 Speaker 1: which is the question of labor discipline. If you have 267 00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:57,119 Speaker 1: a state of full employment, then uh, it's very It 268 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:02,520 Speaker 1: becomes difficult to discipline workers in the factory or in 269 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:09,439 Speaker 1: the office. If if a worker can leave his or 270 00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:15,440 Speaker 1: her place of employment and immediately get another one, then 271 00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:21,120 Speaker 1: where is the labor discipline? It's about control. It's it's 272 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:25,760 Speaker 1: really about the control of labor. And Keletski argued that 273 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:29,879 Speaker 1: in in what would tend to happen is that in 274 00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:35,879 Speaker 1: a state of m full employment you would get a 275 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:46,440 Speaker 1: political coalition UH, put together by major employers, UH, the 276 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:53,639 Speaker 1: people in finance UH, central bank, central bankers, all of 277 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:58,920 Speaker 1: whom would argue that the situation is somehow manifestly unsound. 278 00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:05,760 Speaker 1: Will unsound in what way? Well? Inflation? And sure enough, 279 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 1: you know we we have had inflation, but we also 280 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:16,080 Speaker 1: know at the moment that inflation is coming down quite rapidly. 281 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:20,639 Speaker 1: As well, because so much of the current inflation was 282 00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:31,160 Speaker 1: simply an energy market adjustment two sanctions on on Russian energy. 283 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:38,119 Speaker 1: Uh So it's a kind of future inflation because the 284 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:43,920 Speaker 1: future is unknown, and it's very very easy to to say, oh, well, 285 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 1: you know, things may appear okay at the moment, but 286 00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:51,960 Speaker 1: we know we have these these and these economists with 287 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:57,359 Speaker 1: all these models showing that there's some terrifying inflation around. 288 00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:01,760 Speaker 1: This kind of reminds me of the debate over work 289 00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:06,800 Speaker 1: from home, which is, you know, post pandemic UM, people 290 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,760 Speaker 1: started working from home and there didn't seem to be 291 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,919 Speaker 1: much of a hit on productivity, and a lot of 292 00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 1: companies still met whatever their internal benchmarks are. So then 293 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:18,880 Speaker 1: you had a lot of bosses who started talking about 294 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:22,440 Speaker 1: a degradation of corporate culture and how you know it's 295 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 1: bad people are working from home. They might be doing 296 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,919 Speaker 1: okay um on a pure numbers basis, but in the 297 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:31,199 Speaker 1: long run it's going to impact the company by hitting culture. 298 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,760 Speaker 1: Uh yeah. Can you maybe connect more of what we've 299 00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 1: seen over the past year or two to Colletski's ideas, 300 00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:42,960 Speaker 1: Do you think the post pandemic maybe shift um towards 301 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:47,080 Speaker 1: worker power has vindicated some of his ideas. I think 302 00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:54,359 Speaker 1: it has um it's it's it's vindicated a lot of 303 00:23:54,359 --> 00:24:00,639 Speaker 1: these ideas because it's actually weakened, uh, the the the 304 00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 1: power of many businesses who uh, particularly businesses in uh 305 00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:17,680 Speaker 1: in activities retail, hospitality, UH, these kind of these kinds 306 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:24,159 Speaker 1: of activities which transport even which I just saw that 307 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:34,399 Speaker 1: their markets shrinking, shrink shrinking quite drastically. The the what 308 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 1: then happened, however, was that the speed of the recovery 309 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:46,399 Speaker 1: as uh you know, lockdown was removed. I think a 310 00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 1: lot of those businesses took advantage of that situation to 311 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:54,439 Speaker 1: start raising their price And my view is that they 312 00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:58,240 Speaker 1: were raising their prices because many of them had got 313 00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 1: seriously into debt, many of them had got had found 314 00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:08,159 Speaker 1: their political position weakened. They had to go knocking at 315 00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:17,080 Speaker 1: the door of uh of governments asking for loans, asking 316 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:25,440 Speaker 1: for tax free bates, various other uh you know, public subsidies. 317 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:32,399 Speaker 1: Governments had responded by insisting on on no layoffs. UH. 318 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:40,359 Speaker 1: This kind of thing put UH companies, particular corporations into 319 00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 1: a difficult bind, and a lot of them got out 320 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:50,720 Speaker 1: of this by borrowing at record low rates in trust 321 00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 1: and then seeking to recover that borrowing by raising raising 322 00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:04,440 Speaker 1: their prices. So you have my my explanation of the 323 00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:09,080 Speaker 1: inflation is would be twofold. One is that you have 324 00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:16,199 Speaker 1: this energy costs, which is a temporary phenomenon. But the 325 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:23,320 Speaker 1: other one is really the what Richard Coup referred to 326 00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:28,320 Speaker 1: as it is a type of balance sheet effect where 327 00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:34,880 Speaker 1: firms are trying to clear off debt by by raising 328 00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:39,400 Speaker 1: prices and I think doing it. Uh, they were doing 329 00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:43,800 Speaker 1: quite successfully. But that then feeds into a narrative that 330 00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:50,560 Speaker 1: the uh, that all this is the consequence of full employment, 331 00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:55,080 Speaker 1: and therefore, uh, you know, must be it must show 332 00:26:55,160 --> 00:27:01,760 Speaker 1: that the state of full employment is is financially unsound. 333 00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:08,800 Speaker 1: It isn't, of course, because the the the inflation has 334 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 1: very little to do with with what's happening in the 335 00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:19,560 Speaker 1: labor market. Wage increases have lagged lagged price increases. UH. 336 00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:26,639 Speaker 1: Unions and workers in general have a much weak have 337 00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:32,000 Speaker 1: a match weaker position in the labor market. Um to 338 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:37,960 Speaker 1: some degree, actually individual workers are benefiting from labor shortages, 339 00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:43,679 Speaker 1: but in terms of organization, in terms of powering in 340 00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:50,200 Speaker 1: what politically called the power in the factories, workers still 341 00:27:50,240 --> 00:28:12,840 Speaker 1: remain weak because worker worker organizations are weak. So we 342 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:14,399 Speaker 1: just have a couple of minutes left. But I just 343 00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:18,560 Speaker 1: want to on the inflation question. A term that you 344 00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:23,280 Speaker 1: hear political activists sometimes in the US probably around the world, 345 00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:27,640 Speaker 1: like greed inflation, And I'm curious whether you think that's 346 00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,600 Speaker 1: a useful frame. It kind of doesn't sound like it 347 00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:35,320 Speaker 1: listening that, of course, there are opportunistic situations and that 348 00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:39,120 Speaker 1: for balance sheet reasons, corporations feel the impulse to uh 349 00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:43,280 Speaker 1: to raise prices, But like greed kind of seems like 350 00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 1: one of these things that's kind of immeasurable. I'm curious, 351 00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:51,000 Speaker 1: like in your perspective or collect keys perspective, like, is 352 00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:57,240 Speaker 1: that a useful analytical mode Perstally, I wouldn't use the word, uh, 353 00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:00,640 Speaker 1: the term greed because it seems to be a kind 354 00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:07,960 Speaker 1: of moralizing the fact that it's it's business practice to 355 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:12,720 Speaker 1: get the best possible price, uh for for your output. 356 00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:17,600 Speaker 1: I think there is a there is a sense in which, 357 00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:26,920 Speaker 1: if you have excess capacity, uh, the excess capacity may, 358 00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:36,160 Speaker 1: under certain circumstances, um cause a business to um not 359 00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:42,960 Speaker 1: to raise prices to moderate greed. But on the whole, 360 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:45,880 Speaker 1: I think business decisions are not made on a kind 361 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:49,520 Speaker 1: of moral issue. You try to get the best out 362 00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:52,520 Speaker 1: of the market. That's uh, it's it's the nature of 363 00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:55,920 Speaker 1: the system. So one thing that I always like to 364 00:29:55,960 --> 00:30:00,280 Speaker 1: ask economists who have written biographies of other econom miss 365 00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:03,440 Speaker 1: or who have studied their work, is is there any 366 00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:08,240 Speaker 1: area in which you disagree with COLLECTI or think that maybe, 367 00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:10,400 Speaker 1: you know, maybe he got it wrong, or maybe this 368 00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:14,600 Speaker 1: particular theory could be improved or expounded upon. Yes, I 369 00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:20,240 Speaker 1: think actually he well, he I think his political judgment, 370 00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:30,360 Speaker 1: uh sometimes was when when when to skew for it? 371 00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:35,000 Speaker 1: I mean, if I can give a particular example from 372 00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:40,880 Speaker 1: from the United States, he thought that the student movement 373 00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:50,080 Speaker 1: against the Vietnam War or you know, was headed for failure. Uh. 374 00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:58,200 Speaker 1: And I think this was this was a misjudgment. He 375 00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:07,960 Speaker 1: thought that American capitalism would it would be divided between 376 00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:16,280 Speaker 1: the international capitals and American multinationals would be much more 377 00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:23,280 Speaker 1: sensitive to the way in which America's perceived abroad, and uh, 378 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:32,640 Speaker 1: the domestic or business American businesses that only operating within 379 00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:36,920 Speaker 1: the United States, who would be you know, maybe much 380 00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:41,040 Speaker 1: more bullish. I'm not sure that this is a distinction 381 00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:50,440 Speaker 1: that that works quite well in the United States. I 382 00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:55,480 Speaker 1: think I wished he I regret that he didn't write 383 00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:59,840 Speaker 1: more about money, uh and finance, because I think he 384 00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:08,800 Speaker 1: um in this way he um uh. It's it's too 385 00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:14,040 Speaker 1: easy to dismiss his ideas as being characteristic of the 386 00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:25,040 Speaker 1: long period between nine and let's say, the nineties seventies, 387 00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:31,360 Speaker 1: when you know, really the stock market and finance were 388 00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:38,680 Speaker 1: not terribly important and could and we're in a fact 389 00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:43,680 Speaker 1: dependent on on state support. M I think that they 390 00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:52,719 Speaker 1: the situation now it's rather it's rather different and really 391 00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:58,240 Speaker 1: needs um needs more working on. So I think this 392 00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:03,280 Speaker 1: would be um kind of my my, my regret and 393 00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:09,880 Speaker 1: my criticism. Plus the fact that I think he his um. 394 00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:14,520 Speaker 1: He was a he was an engineer, and a feature 395 00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:17,400 Speaker 1: of the type of economics of his time was that 396 00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:26,120 Speaker 1: you had to you want success in profession by putting 397 00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:30,040 Speaker 1: forward in a neat mathematical model. Now he knew that 398 00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:33,720 Speaker 1: this was this wasn't enough. You had to have some 399 00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:38,280 Speaker 1: kind of roots in the way in which the system operated. 400 00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:47,520 Speaker 1: But uh, you know, he tended to believe that once 401 00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:52,600 Speaker 1: he'd once he'd put forward the equation and that was enough. 402 00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:57,280 Speaker 1: And I don't think it was Jean Taparowski I'm afraid 403 00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:00,840 Speaker 1: rut of time, but that was a fantastic Really appreciate 404 00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:04,800 Speaker 1: you coming on. And I feel like perhaps, you know, 405 00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,760 Speaker 1: Kine sort of got this revival after the Great Financial Crisis, 406 00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,640 Speaker 1: and it feels like with collects thoughts right now is 407 00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:12,640 Speaker 1: people wrestle with some of this thing. More people are 408 00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,160 Speaker 1: going to be discovering him. So appreciate you coming out 409 00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:32,320 Speaker 1: odd lots. Thank you, Thank you very much for this opportunity, Tracy. 410 00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,759 Speaker 1: I really enjoyed that. It does feel like, um, well, 411 00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:38,759 Speaker 1: I mean there's a lot there. The political aspects of 412 00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:42,600 Speaker 1: the question you brought about working from home, the sort 413 00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:48,719 Speaker 1: of rebellion against worker autonomy, worker power, what happens when 414 00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:51,879 Speaker 1: it's really easy, potentially to find another job. I think 415 00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:53,760 Speaker 1: it's like, for one thing, that's like a pretty important 416 00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:57,040 Speaker 1: idea right now. Absolutely. I also thought the question of 417 00:34:57,239 --> 00:35:01,120 Speaker 1: why so if you argue that, you know, private sector 418 00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:04,520 Speaker 1: activity is dependent on the level of investment, but then 419 00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:07,799 Speaker 1: why why does the level of investment change? Why is 420 00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:11,480 Speaker 1: it more unstable that than consumption. That is a question 421 00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,120 Speaker 1: that comes up all the time here on all plots, 422 00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:16,759 Speaker 1: right like why do these business cycles exist? Why do 423 00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:22,200 Speaker 1: firms seem to you know, potentially overreact to slow periods 424 00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:26,400 Speaker 1: and then overreact to um more active periods. I don't know, 425 00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:29,440 Speaker 1: like I think it's still open to debate, but it 426 00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:32,560 Speaker 1: was definitely interesting to hear Coletsky's ideas on that. Yeah, 427 00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:36,600 Speaker 1: and this idea that like and you know, um change 428 00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:41,400 Speaker 1: like is UM pointing out like animal spirits uncertainty Like 429 00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:44,520 Speaker 1: these are like it's like vibes, you know, like there's 430 00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:47,400 Speaker 1: I think vibes are important, but also like they're a 431 00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:51,399 Speaker 1: little bit unsatisfying to choose capacity utilization over vibes. Yea, yeah, 432 00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:53,839 Speaker 1: I mean why do vibes change? Right? That's like if 433 00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:56,080 Speaker 1: you're if you sort of like lean too heavily into 434 00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:59,000 Speaker 1: the vibes theory of economic cycles, then you have then 435 00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:00,960 Speaker 1: you're just moved onto the question of like well why 436 00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:04,200 Speaker 1: do vibes change? And so some of these questions about 437 00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:07,759 Speaker 1: like capacity utilization, I do think they're helpful. I love 438 00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:10,440 Speaker 1: like I love the railroad example of like, Okay, the 439 00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:13,280 Speaker 1: problem is just keep building railroads, which you will maintain 440 00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:16,560 Speaker 1: like full demand. Then you'll end up with a hundred railroads. 441 00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:18,160 Speaker 1: And this idea like this is the sort of like 442 00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:21,440 Speaker 1: contradiction of the system is very As a regular user 443 00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:24,319 Speaker 1: of amtrack, I say, build all the railroad build build 444 00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:27,440 Speaker 1: them all. Now I am open to any and every 445 00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:31,440 Speaker 1: possible explanation, um or I should say policy suggestion for 446 00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:34,759 Speaker 1: smoothing business cycles, and this was a fascinating one. Absolutely 447 00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:36,719 Speaker 1: All right, shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. 448 00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,800 Speaker 1: This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. 449 00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:42,279 Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on Twitter at 450 00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:44,640 Speaker 1: Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe Why Isn't Thal? You can 451 00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:48,080 Speaker 1: follow me on Twitter at the Stalwart, follow our producer 452 00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:52,520 Speaker 1: Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Arman and Dash Bennett at Dashbot. 453 00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:55,520 Speaker 1: And check out all of our podcasts at Bloomberg under 454 00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:59,480 Speaker 1: the handle at podcasts, and for more odd Lots content, 455 00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:02,399 Speaker 1: go to blue berg dot com slash odd Lots, where 456 00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:05,120 Speaker 1: you can see the transcripts we blog. We have a 457 00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:07,880 Speaker 1: weekly newsletter that comes out every Friday. Go there and 458 00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:09,440 Speaker 1: sign up. Thanks for listening.