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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock That we

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Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the

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Speaker 1: show that makes the squares sharper. It makes the wise

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Speaker 1: guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman, I am joined

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Speaker 1: as I am every week. Buy my calls, my companion,

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Speaker 1: my compadre, my BFF, professional better Simon Hunter, Hello, Simon, Chad.

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Speaker 2: It is a bitter sweet show. As it's over for

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Speaker 2: the regular season, look for us. Our contest keeps going

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Speaker 2: and the playoffs keep going and it only gets better.

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Speaker 3: Here it's the best football of the year.

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Speaker 2: And you know the deal as a team who a

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Speaker 2: fan of a team who's in the playoffs, and it's

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Speaker 2: anybody's game. When you make it to the you feel

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Speaker 2: that way. I know it's usually the best teams, but

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Speaker 2: you just want to get to the dance. You want

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Speaker 2: to at least get to the dance. And Yeah, when

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Speaker 2: I woke up yesterday after the Sunday games, I was like,

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Speaker 2: my god, they got it. Still got a team left

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Speaker 2: and some football left. Because it's it's just the best

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Speaker 2: feeling the chase. I mean, we got it. We got

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Speaker 2: a Bills fan here, guy who's lost four straight Super Bowls.

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Speaker 2: It's the best run of your life, but also can

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Speaker 2: be the most crushing and tone setting run of your life.

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Speaker 3: But it's it's the best feeling.

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Speaker 2: Like I just can't belave the playoffs are here and

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Speaker 2: runneth all these matchups, all the conversation. The island's going

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Speaker 2: crazy to Bermuda, everything's going crazy right now talking NFL

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Speaker 2: with that weekend, it's it's it's the best right now.

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Speaker 1: I uh, I'm in a little bit of football ecstasy

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Speaker 1: because on Friday night I will be in Atlanta to

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Speaker 1: watch the Indiana Hoosiers play the Oregon Docks in the

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Speaker 1: College Football Playoffs semi finals.

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Speaker 2: I'm so happy you're going because that was hardbreaking for

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Speaker 2: you going to go to the Big Ten championship.

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Speaker 3: So this makes up for it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, uh. You know, it's really about scheduling for

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Speaker 1: the show. Like it's just we during the football season.

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Speaker 1: We do show Tuesday, we do show Thursday, we do

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Speaker 1: a show Sunday morning, we do a show Sunday night.

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Speaker 1: It just makes it hard. And I don't live near

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Speaker 1: like anywhere I go from Connecticut, I fly to Herford.

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Speaker 1: It takes a full day to get somewhere because it

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Speaker 1: doesn't fly anywhere direct, it flies direct to Atlanta. So

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Speaker 1: and my buddy Matt, who I'm going with on the

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Speaker 1: night that they won their playoff game, He's like, listen,

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Speaker 1: I know you can get NonStop from Bradley to Atlanta.

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Speaker 1: We're fucking going, And he's right, and so we are.

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Speaker 1: We're going. And then I get back that night and

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Speaker 1: I'm sitting down to watch the Bears in the playoffs

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Speaker 1: play the Packers like it is going to be twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours of full football glory or pure agony. We

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Speaker 1: don't know which way it's going to go yet, but

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Speaker 1: that's also part of the fun. Simon. We went four

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Speaker 1: and one in the final weekend of our five favorite

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Speaker 1: picks for the regular season. We won with the Lions,

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Speaker 1: we won with the Rams, won with the Saints, and

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Speaker 1: in a thriller miracle of the year Game of the

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Speaker 1: Year Wow raw Ross Steelers home Dogs three and a half.

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Speaker 1: It's a theme that we're going to touch on today.

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Speaker 1: We lost with the Bengals, and we lost with the Bengals,

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Speaker 1: who lost to a QB who finished the game with

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Speaker 1: a twelve rating twelve QB rating and led an offense

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Speaker 1: that scored six points. I was going to let it go,

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Speaker 1: but then I saw this. You actually texted me, texted

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Speaker 1: me and Mitchell that some dude in the Circus Survivor contest.

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Speaker 1: The prize pool for Circa this year in their Survivor

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Speaker 1: contest was eighteen million dollars. Going into the final weekend,

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Speaker 1: there were six people still alive. Only one person lost

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Speaker 1: lost the chance to win three million dollars because that

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Speaker 1: person had the Bengals, And that brought it back for

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Speaker 1: me and made me put it in context. Felt much,

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Speaker 1: you know, less worse losing what I lost versus what

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Speaker 1: this guy lost. But then I saw a stat from

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Speaker 1: Aaron Schotz, who created DA and he put out a

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Speaker 1: graphic that basically said, the underlying metrics from that game,

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Speaker 1: the way the Browns won, should happen one percent of

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Speaker 1: the time, which makes it the sixth longest odds for

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Speaker 1: a team with those metrics compared to the team they

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Speaker 1: lost to to win in NFL history, the sixth least

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Speaker 1: likely outcome in NFL history for a team that played

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Speaker 1: as bad as the Cleveland Browns did. That is remarkable

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Speaker 1: and I feel for the guy who lost three million

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Speaker 1: dollars because of it.

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Speaker 3: I love how you were just so in shock.

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Speaker 2: Though I try to think the exact thing you just

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Speaker 2: read out loud here to you on Sunday night, I

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Speaker 2: think you just blew right through. You still complained about

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Speaker 2: the Bengals for another ten minutes.

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Speaker 3: You think you got it bad.

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Speaker 2: A guy lost three million on that kick. But yeah, man, Mitchell,

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Speaker 2: throw that record back up on the screen.

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Speaker 3: It was a great year. Well we have five losing

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Speaker 3: week chat.

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Speaker 1: It was insane a great year.

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Speaker 2: I know the Internet people's brains are fried, Like I

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Speaker 2: still had people complaining and just saying crazy stuff. I

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Speaker 2: had this one guy going every week complaining. I clicked

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Speaker 2: on his profile and it's just him like propping up

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Speaker 2: busting with the Veneer guys, and it's like, dude, what

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Speaker 2: is going on? How are you gonna love those guys

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Speaker 2: and hate us. We're giving out real good picks and

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Speaker 2: working on our asses off. So yeah, five losing weeks chat,

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Speaker 2: I'll take it anytime and get it.

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Speaker 3: Was a long season a grind. Obviously.

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Speaker 2: The most disappointing part of that chart is there's no

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Speaker 2: five and zero weeks, which is always We're always that's

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Speaker 2: always the goal.

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Speaker 3: Every week and we didn't get to this week.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, it's chaotic start to the year and I'm

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Speaker 2: pretty happy it all worked out.

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Speaker 3: Bro. It was.

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Speaker 2: It was a fun, real fun season, and like I said,

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Speaker 2: I'm really happy to get the contest continues into the

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Speaker 2: playoffs year.

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Speaker 3: Keep it rolling.

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Speaker 1: Started four and one, ended four and one, a lot

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Speaker 1: of three and two, thirteen winning weeks, five losing weeks.

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Speaker 1: Shout out to Chris Sampson on X who goes by

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Speaker 1: NFL Bets Tracker, because he has been updating how we

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Speaker 1: have done with all of our sort of named bets.

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Speaker 1: You know, Chad's Chad's Choice and Simon says and brass

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Speaker 1: Balls and Rock and a Hard Place. He's been updating

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Speaker 1: it all season long on Twitter, not just the five favorites.

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Speaker 1: So we went fifty one to thirty nine with the

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Speaker 1: five phaves. Our best winning percentage was Rock and a

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Speaker 1: Hard Place sixty one percent, Chad's choice one at a

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Speaker 1: fifty six percent clip. Simon says, wanted a thirty nine

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Speaker 1: percent clip, which you knew you had a bad run

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Speaker 1: in the middle there, Simon. Simon crushed me and had

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Speaker 1: to head fifty nine thirty five percent. What's least surprising

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Speaker 1: about this.

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Speaker 3: Was that Sharper Square Sharp versus Square.

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Speaker 1: That well, that was my point, my, my. The least

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Speaker 1: surprising thing to me is that rock and a hard

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Speaker 1: place one at a sixty one percent clip, because that's

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Speaker 1: Sunday morning, when we have nearly perfect information. Right, it's

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Speaker 1: the easiest time, easiest one to met to bet.

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Speaker 3: At least you were nail on Tuesdays.

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Speaker 1: Well, listen, the second the second best was you crushing

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Speaker 1: me in Sharp versus Square. This is the biggest one

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Speaker 1: in the history of our show. And to me, I

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Speaker 1: think the fact that we named it sharp versus Square

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Speaker 1: it was a self fulfilling prophecy. I am going to

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Speaker 1: tell myself, I just had to lean into the idea

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Speaker 1: that I had to be as square as possible in

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Speaker 1: order for this to work. So maybe I sand back myself.

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Speaker 1: That's what I'm talking about.

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Speaker 3: Titans too many times. That was probably your issue.

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Speaker 1: It totally It can be all right. Looking at the

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Speaker 1: leaderboard in our Sharper Square Pro Football Pick Them contest,

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Speaker 1: six entries are currently tied at twenty points. Nikki abs

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Speaker 1: maybe he's doing the peloton workouts like I am and

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Speaker 1: the Big Why, which also happens to be my local

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Speaker 1: grocery store.

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Speaker 3: I'm the big guy Big Why.

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Speaker 1: Big Why Big Why Big wy just down the street

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Speaker 1: from me. They're at the very top. Four more slates

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Speaker 1: until we crowned champion. Good luck to everyone playing. Also,

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Speaker 1: since we're going through season roundups Simon, we got to

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Speaker 1: thank Matt Mitchell, who came into the show shortly after

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Speaker 1: we launched, didn't miss a beat from the old days,

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Speaker 1: kept us rolling the whole freaking season, organized the contest

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Speaker 1: working with our friends at hard Rock Bet, which is

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Speaker 1: not an easy thing to launch in the middle of

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Speaker 1: a season. We got to thank our friends at the

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Speaker 1: Volume for helping us launch a spectacular show that got

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Speaker 1: bigger after we left our old platform started a new

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Speaker 1: show with a new name. So if that's the case,

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Speaker 1: we also have to think everybody who came with us,

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Speaker 1: everyone who joined us this season. We're only doing it

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Speaker 1: because we like working with each other, the three of us,

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Speaker 1: and because we love the interaction we get with our audience,

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Speaker 1: the good, the bad, and the ugly. We're super grateful

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Speaker 1: that everyone's stuck with it all through the regular season.

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Speaker 1: We're going to keep rolling into the wild.

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Speaker 2: In our favorite Uncle Colin Colin Coward, best season ever

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Speaker 2: Blize in five What a coincidence?

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Speaker 3: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't know, reflected glory, I don't know.

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Speaker 1: This is our Tuesday Wildcard weekend show, So we're going

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Speaker 1: to review the entire slate of games. Because of his

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Speaker 1: playoff season, we will include totals in the conversation. Those

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Speaker 1: are also included in the contest. Also, because the schedule

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Speaker 1: of games is wacky, we adjust our weekend programming as well.

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Speaker 1: So we got the Tuesday show, we got the Thursday show.

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Speaker 1: This weekend, we will do a Saturday morning show because

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Speaker 1: we want to get ahead of all five games, and

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Speaker 1: then we will do a Monday review show and then

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Speaker 1: right before kickoff of the Texan Steelers, so we'll review

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Speaker 1: what happened over the weekend and then preview Texans Steelers.

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Speaker 1: The next weekend. We'll do a Saturday morning before the

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Speaker 1: divisional and a review show on Sunday night. After Again,

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Speaker 1: we'll remind everybody, but don't forget. That's what we're doing.

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Speaker 1: New schedule. Get all the shows Sharper Square YouTube subscribing

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Speaker 1: like this video Donald from apple Pots, Spotify, wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your pods. Here we go, Saturday, January tenth, four

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Speaker 1: to thirty pm Eastern Los Angeles Grams at the Carolina Panthers.

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Speaker 1: The total is forty six and a half. Contest includes

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Speaker 1: totals for all games.

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Speaker 3: In my mind, I'm long cal Line.

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Speaker 1: Simon. It's like a dream come true. We get to

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Speaker 1: talk about the Panthers and Bryce Young in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: It feels like vindication and validation for us after so

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Speaker 1: many years backing this team. We've been loving them. I'm

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Speaker 1: telling you right now. Chad's Choice presented by hard Rock

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Speaker 1: that Los Angeles Rams minus ten wow and.

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Speaker 3: Minus my favorite boom. Are you sure you want to

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Speaker 3: do this? Are you willing to make a choice? A

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Speaker 3: choice we can't run from a sharp dues can just

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Speaker 3: see it, you know what I mean?

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Speaker 1: Shocker, I know this is crazy. It's against type, it's

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Speaker 1: against the team that I love. I got some logic

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Speaker 1: before I get into it. I do want to hear

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Speaker 1: your thoughts on my bet because we haven't talked about it,

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Speaker 1: and it's going against everything we do and everything we've

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Speaker 1: done with this Panthers team.

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Speaker 3: A little bit.

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Speaker 2: Uh yeah, it's it's it's tough free for me right now.

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Speaker 2: I told you I'm probably waiting to before I put

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Speaker 2: a lot of money to this one until I know

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Speaker 2: what those status is about the Adams, and you know,

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Speaker 2: it's a type of game where you know, I get

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Speaker 2: why you're doing it. We both agree that are a

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Speaker 2: much better team. And I obviously have a ton of

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Speaker 2: stats the favorite the Rams that we're about to run

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Speaker 2: through here. But yeah, I'm shocked here it's your favorite

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Speaker 2: bet so far over the weekend.

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Speaker 1: I'm a little bit too. Part of it is it's

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Speaker 1: like it's hard to choose on a Tuesday of playoff week.

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Speaker 1: I'm all of the stats that you're talking about, the

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Speaker 1: advanced analytics point to this Rams team as being probably

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Speaker 1: the best team in the playoffs based on what they

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Speaker 1: do offensively, what they do about defensively, the strength of

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Speaker 1: their schedule, who they beat, how they won. So that's

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Speaker 1: number one. I think that we're getting a little bit

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Speaker 1: of value here because don't forget when these guys played

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Speaker 1: at the end of November, November thirtieth, the Rams were

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Speaker 1: ten point favorites on the road at the Panthers. So

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Speaker 1: what this is saying to me is that everything is

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Speaker 1: power rated the same and in that window, the Rams

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Speaker 1: have continued to perform really well. The Panthers have been Okay,

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Speaker 1: they didn't beat the Bucks, they didn't win the week before,

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Speaker 1: like they got blown out in a really bad game

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Speaker 1: against the forty nine ers. So I feel like there's

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Speaker 1: a little bit of value on the Rams. And then

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Speaker 1: we have to take into account, which is that this

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Speaker 1: past weekend was it a good Bryce Young game or

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Speaker 1: was it a bad Bryce Young game? Because you generally

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Speaker 1: want to go against his most recent performance and his

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Speaker 1: last game twenty four to thirty five to two sixty six,

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Speaker 1: two touchdowns in a game they easily could have won

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Speaker 1: in a hurricane on the road, included some classic Bryce

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Speaker 1: Young bombs, So isn't he due for a stinker?

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Speaker 2: Some of my thoughts, Yeah, I just I honestly thought

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Speaker 2: we maybe would be end up on the Panthers this week.

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Speaker 2: That's why I'm shocked to hear so early in the week.

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Speaker 2: You love the Rams this much, But it's a crazy team.

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Speaker 2: This Panthers team where it's never happened for our team

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Speaker 2: has never never won a game as a favorite and

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Speaker 2: then made the playoffs that season in the Super Bowl air.

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Speaker 2: This has never happened for this Panthers team. Every game

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Speaker 2: they won this season was as an underdog. I went,

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Speaker 2: but they go eight eight wins as an underdog, and

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Speaker 2: they never won as a favorite, and they somehow made

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Speaker 2: the playoffs with a losing record and insanely horrible point

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Speaker 2: there where they over minus sixty nine points point differential, Like,

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Speaker 2: it's just insane this Panthers team.

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Speaker 3: To make it.

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Speaker 2: It's because the division is, like you're saying, it's a weak,

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Speaker 2: bad division, Panthers being powered at this number.

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Speaker 3: I have it at eight.

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Speaker 2: So once again, like my Mona does favorite Panthers here,

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Speaker 2: but it's I think it's because DeVante's out and the

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Speaker 2: numbers happened skewed a little bit where if he was in,

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Speaker 2: I mean he still led the league in touchdowns with

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Speaker 2: fourteen touchdowns, he didn't play for the final three weeks,

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Speaker 2: So that's gonna choose the number.

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Speaker 3: A little bit.

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Speaker 2: Like the Rams lost two really important games in that stretch, right,

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Speaker 2: and the really shifted their view of this team. And

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Speaker 2: it's like, yeah, you can't make an excuse for a

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Speaker 2: staff for losing the number one guy, but he lost

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Speaker 2: him in the worst spot, like him in that Seattle

284
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Speaker 2: game would have been a difference, right him being injured

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Speaker 2: for that game or coming up lame as was a

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Speaker 2: big deal. So waiting on DeVante is the big one.

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Speaker 2: But let's run through all the crazy numbers. I mean,

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Speaker 2: that's the best part of playoffs. You really can focus

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Speaker 2: in and look at all the different trends and the

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Speaker 2: different stats just for these final six games.

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Speaker 3: The biggest one for this one is how often has

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Speaker 3: this happened? Right?

293
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Speaker 2: A ten point home dog in the Panthers. It's historical.

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Speaker 2: This is like the biggest home dog we've had in

295
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Speaker 2: like twenty five years. So it's a really really weird

296
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Speaker 2: spot for just the Rams and the fact that you

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Speaker 2: know they're now gonna be one of the biggest favorites

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Speaker 2: we've seen the wildcard round.

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Speaker 3: Wildcard round usually you just blindly bet dogs.

300
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Speaker 2: If you just taken the dog every year in every

301
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Speaker 2: game since twenty twenty two or twenty twenty two thousand

302
00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:59,040
Speaker 2: and two, you are sixty one percent just blindly betting

303
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Speaker 2: the dogs than wildcard round. So it's just you don't overthink.

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Speaker 2: You kind of want to lean to the dogs in

305
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Speaker 2: these spots. But it's kind of interesting that the Panthers

306
00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:12,160
Speaker 2: already beat the Rams, and if you go through stircle data,

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Speaker 2: if they played the twelfth game or later and the Panthers,

308
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Speaker 2: you know they beat them, was that week thirteen or fourteen.

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Speaker 2: If they're playing the same team again and they're a

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Speaker 2: dog again, the favorite is seven to two against the

311
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Speaker 2: spread in that exact spot, covering the spread by seven

312
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Speaker 2: points per game. So you know there are long term

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Speaker 2: trends that do favor of the Rams. And you know,

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Speaker 2: I right away, I was thinking to myself, what is

315
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Speaker 2: mcveigh's stats, because I give him all the time, right McVeigh,

316
00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:41,440
Speaker 2: he dominates late in the season. We talked about that

317
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Speaker 2: December run. The other thing we've talked about too is

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Speaker 2: him as a big road favorite. He's just been incredible,

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Speaker 2: especially against the spread. You know a lot of people

320
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Speaker 2: ask if it's just safe for going money line. Obviously

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Speaker 2: we're talking spreads here, that's what we do on the show.

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Speaker 2: Straight up, though, McVeigh is a favorite on the road

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Speaker 2: thirty four and ten, you know, not shocking spread though,

324
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Speaker 2: twenty six and eighteen against the spread, which is really impressive.

325
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Speaker 2: When he's a faired above four points on the road.

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Speaker 2: He's nineteen and two straight up in his career ATS

327
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Speaker 2: twelve and nine. Still though, that straight up number is insane. Yeah,

328
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Speaker 2: I know someone like me that's making a couple of

329
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Speaker 2: really big bets the Rams, I'm gonna I'll be that fish.

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Speaker 2: I'll throw them in a couple of big bets money

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Speaker 2: line wise, just to eat some of the juice. Because

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Speaker 2: it's it's crazy how Dominic McVay is against really bad teams.

333
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Speaker 2: And we've talked a little bit about Stafford. You know,

334
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Speaker 2: he struggled this season against bad teams. If you look

335
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Speaker 2: at his record. I mean, people know he lost to Atlanta's.

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Speaker 1: Got He's got to play with his food. Yeah, that

337
00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:49,320
Speaker 1: is the one thing that is concerning me. Like they

338
00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:51,960
Speaker 1: played with their food with Arizona. They played with their

339
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Speaker 1: food with Tennessee in September, right, and they didn't blow

340
00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:57,679
Speaker 1: them out until late in the game. They played with

341
00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:00,480
Speaker 1: their food with the Niners when the Niners we're down.

342
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Speaker 1: So many guys ended up losing that game and that

343
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Speaker 1: had an impact on their seating. There have been moments

344
00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:10,480
Speaker 1: stretches where Stafford and McVeigh they sort of disappear for

345
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Speaker 1: about a quarter. That is a definite concern here.

346
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Speaker 2: And I'm gonna be hitting you guys with this stat

347
00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:20,680
Speaker 2: in a couple of different games, but I talk about

348
00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:21,160
Speaker 2: every year.

349
00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:22,960
Speaker 3: It's an easy money maker.

350
00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:27,119
Speaker 2: A few lazy betters quarterbacks with playoff experience over his

351
00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:31,480
Speaker 2: quarterbacks without playoff experience twenty thirty nine and one against

352
00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:35,080
Speaker 2: the spread. So Bryce Young in this spot, if you

353
00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:37,480
Speaker 2: bet on him, it's a thirty four percent cover rate.

354
00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:40,639
Speaker 2: Like it's just a first time stars against these quarterbacks

355
00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:43,439
Speaker 2: doesn't work out even straight up it's twenty and forty,

356
00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:47,720
Speaker 2: so even more so, it's it's just terrible, terrible odds for.

357
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Speaker 3: These quarterbacks making their first start.

358
00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:51,439
Speaker 2: So we're gonna go through all the games obviously, but

359
00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:55,399
Speaker 2: this goes to Bryce Young against Stafford Gaylea Williams against

360
00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:58,960
Speaker 2: Jordan Love, and Drake May against Justin Herbert. So just

361
00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:02,720
Speaker 2: blindly taking those quarterbacks ats wise is just a money maker.

362
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:05,680
Speaker 2: You're getting a sixty six percent win rate in playoff

363
00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:09,440
Speaker 2: super since the Super Bowl er, So it's a crazy stab.

364
00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:12,480
Speaker 2: But we talk all the time experience it does matter,

365
00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 2: especially with quarterbacks that have won before in the playoffs.

366
00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:19,240
Speaker 1: Any thoughts in the total forty six and a half.

367
00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:21,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, really, love.

368
00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:23,600
Speaker 2: There's people are gonna see a pattern here. I love

369
00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:26,879
Speaker 2: the unders this week. We talk all the time. What

370
00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:31,280
Speaker 2: you're always looking for is playoff outdoors like that's usually

371
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,440
Speaker 2: get some weather, usually get a little bit of coldness.

372
00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:36,600
Speaker 3: For especially these West Coast teams coming east.

373
00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:39,480
Speaker 2: Uh, they have to get you know, adjusted to that

374
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:41,720
Speaker 2: that it's just different playing in thirty degrees rather than

375
00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 2: temper control seven degrees like we all know. And this

376
00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:49,040
Speaker 2: weekend all six Wildcard games our outdoors. Another if you've

377
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:52,359
Speaker 2: just been blindly betting outdoor unders since two thousand and

378
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,960
Speaker 2: four in the Wildcard games forty nine and twenty three,

379
00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:58,560
Speaker 2: so sixty eight percent win rate if you just blindly

380
00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:02,359
Speaker 2: bet these unders since thousand four outdoors, so you know

381
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,439
Speaker 2: even better if the total is above forty one in

382
00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:08,080
Speaker 2: those outdoor games, jed the under is forty two and

383
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:10,040
Speaker 2: fourteen in the Wildcats.

384
00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:12,479
Speaker 3: Yes, so I know.

385
00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:14,719
Speaker 2: There's there's a bunch of games where I initiate was like, oh,

386
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:17,160
Speaker 2: I'm gonna love these overs. This is one right away

387
00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 2: where I was like, oh my god, this is below

388
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:22,080
Speaker 2: forty eight. Don't fall for it. Take the under forty

389
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:24,560
Speaker 2: six and a half. You could easily see Bryce shaw

390
00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:26,920
Speaker 2: laid a toll egg and this be a twenty four

391
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:28,680
Speaker 2: to seven type of win for this Rams team.

392
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 1: Well, Milman's hoping, so Chad's choice.

393
00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:33,480
Speaker 2: I'm too jed, honestly. If the man Dadams it's cleared,

394
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,120
Speaker 2: I think you might be ahead of it. This could

395
00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:38,000
Speaker 2: easily jump another point, So I don't hate you probably

396
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 2: getting the best the number here. I'm just gonna be

397
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 2: patient just in case he does get clear. This drops

398
00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:42,640
Speaker 2: down a nine and a half.

399
00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 1: Or nine all right. Saturday nights, eight pm Eastern, Amazon Prime,

400
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:51,479
Speaker 1: Green Bay Packers visiting the Chicago Bears. The Bears are

401
00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,879
Speaker 1: currently a one point favorite. The total is forty six.

402
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:06,240
Speaker 3: Chic Cargo, Chicc, go that toddle in town, Chicago, Chicago.

403
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:08,360
Speaker 1: I will show you around.

404
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 3: I love it.

405
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:14,200
Speaker 1: Look it's been it's been jumping around. It's gone from

406
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:17,280
Speaker 1: Packers plus one and a half to Bears plus one

407
00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:21,080
Speaker 1: and a half. It feels like there is a complete

408
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 1: and total divide in the professional betting community right now

409
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:28,520
Speaker 1: on this game, because it seems to move with every

410
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:32,879
Speaker 1: every bet moves it one way or the other. The

411
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 1: total is forty six. Like I said, so, based on

412
00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 1: all that and the fact that it's going to be

413
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 1: outdoors and cold. Even that feels a little bit high

414
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:40,800
Speaker 1: to me. So we know we're going to like the

415
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:45,480
Speaker 1: under in this game. But I have I can't get

416
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,440
Speaker 1: I can't get to a consensus opinion in my head

417
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 1: on this game. The one thing I'll say is that

418
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 1: the Bears have only been in these games because of

419
00:21:56,080 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 1: miraculous comebacks in the third and fourth quarters. Otherwise, the

420
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:06,399
Speaker 1: Packers have dominated these games. Dominated, And that says something

421
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:06,639
Speaker 1: to me.

422
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:10,879
Speaker 2: Well, if you're lost, buddy, I just gave you, literally

423
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,639
Speaker 2: just gave you that stat you should just blindly fill here.

424
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:16,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. And I also I would say, like I

425
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:20,720
Speaker 1: wrote down a note here money line parlay on the Rams,

426
00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:23,360
Speaker 1: the Packers and the Chargers.

427
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:26,400
Speaker 3: But yeah, it's we're watching history.

428
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 2: This is truly a history where this is the oldest

429
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:32,600
Speaker 2: rivalry in football and they've only played in the playoff

430
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 2: two other times. I was shocked to see that. That

431
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 2: shout out to Bill Simmons who gave that out. I

432
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,440
Speaker 2: couldn't believe that. I was like, I have to look

433
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 2: this up. There's no way this man is right right now,

434
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:44,879
Speaker 2: he's right. The last time they first time, first time

435
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 2: they played in the playoffs nineteen forty one, the second

436
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:51,320
Speaker 2: time twenty ten. Chad probably don't remember that nineteen forties

437
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 2: one because the Bears won, but he remember the twenty

438
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,439
Speaker 2: ten one where the Bears beat him twenty one to fourteen.

439
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:58,680
Speaker 2: I think was that Jake Culer who got Ye the game?

440
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 2: Pretty yeah, crazy crazy, You guys have only met three

441
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 2: times in the playoffs. I really that blew my mind.

442
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:10,360
Speaker 2: So yeah, the oldest graveling in football has just been

443
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 2: owned by the Packers, and you know it's a new

444
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:16,359
Speaker 2: error with Ben Johnson, you guys are given your best.

445
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 2: I've talked about it though. Eventually it was going to

446
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:20,920
Speaker 2: swing the other way, the pendulum. You just kept getting

447
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:23,680
Speaker 2: away with it all season. You kept stealing these games

448
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 2: the end of the games, and it felt like Detroit

449
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 2: it was going to happen. I don't know about you,

450
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 2: but I if San Francisco felt it was gonna happen,

451
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 2: Detroit fall was going to happen.

452
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,640
Speaker 3: It felt like you finally was going your way.

453
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 2: And both times Caleb couldn't bring up the magic right

454
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 2: that thirty and ten or whatever it was against the lines.

455
00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 3: You couldn't make it happen.

456
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:44,199
Speaker 2: What was the three seconds left or two's left with

457
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 2: the San Francisco game, you had a guy you just

458
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,199
Speaker 2: missed him. So could have work out for you for

459
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:51,399
Speaker 2: the Bears, Chad, I think it can. But I can

460
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,640
Speaker 2: tell you the pros I've talked to and the way

461
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:54,400
Speaker 2: I'm leaning.

462
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 3: Is really towards the Packers.

463
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 2: It's just the exact team you want to be backing

464
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 2: here that they rested everybody. The Bears had a full

465
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 2: on brawl last week. Their defense played what sixty snaps

466
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 2: and just got abused up and down the field. Now

467
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 2: in a short week against arrested Green Bay team, I mean,

468
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:14,239
Speaker 2: the hope will just be Green Bay. It's just been

469
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,360
Speaker 2: such dogshit. I mean, where they've lost four or five straight,

470
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 2: they've been.

471
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:20,400
Speaker 1: Well, they've lost three straight. Josh Jacobs banged up obviously,

472
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 1: Tucker Craft hasn't played for a while. Receivers are in

473
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 1: and out, Jordan Love out of the protocol, No Micah

474
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 1: cart no Micah Parsons. Like, there's reasons why they've faded

475
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:31,719
Speaker 1: at the end of the year, you know, And so

476
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:33,879
Speaker 1: even if they are trying to get healthy and rested

477
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 1: a lot of guys, they're still not the Packers team

478
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:40,639
Speaker 1: that everyone thought was one of the better rosters throughout

479
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 1: most of the year.

480
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's why I'm just expecting all the money

481
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,159
Speaker 2: and everybody just to come in very heavy on this

482
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:48,879
Speaker 2: Bear side.

483
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:50,400
Speaker 3: So you can get the.

484
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 2: Plus one and a half on Green Bay, I'll grab

485
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 2: it now. But like this is the game I'm not

486
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:57,119
Speaker 2: I haven't met a lot of money into. Obviously I

487
00:24:57,160 --> 00:25:00,520
Speaker 2: have the best in the under. The under leave opened

488
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:04,119
Speaker 2: at forty seven or forty six, and it's dropped already

489
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 2: down to forty five and a half for forty six.

490
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 2: So just another like I said outdoor, under blindly betted

491
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,200
Speaker 2: one of these quarterbacks is going to lay in total

492
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:14,640
Speaker 2: leg and Jordan Love could come out after not playing

493
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,119
Speaker 2: after a couple of weeks and fall flattening on his

494
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 2: face and just be terrible. Caleb Williams, we just saw

495
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 2: him do nothing for three quarters against the lines last week,

496
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:25,399
Speaker 2: a secondary that is riddled with injuries. So you know,

497
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 2: this Packers team, they lost Micah, they lost the pass rush.

498
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:31,680
Speaker 2: Like there, this is a winnable game for the Bears.

499
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 2: It's just I feel like it's it's this the hardest

500
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,399
Speaker 2: thing ever for that that first time quarterback in the

501
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,359
Speaker 2: playoffs to get used to the speed and the indifference

502
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:43,400
Speaker 2: of compared to the regular season. It's just simply different. Every

503
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 2: player you've ever talked to always says it is simply different.

504
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 2: That that's that I gave out back set up right.

505
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 2: These first time quarterbacks twenty and forty their last sixty

506
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 2: starts straight up. So it's just a brutal start for

507
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 2: the Bears. Here obviously is the two seed. You would

508
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 2: hope to get some roll team in the seventh seed.

509
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 2: It's you guys are in the toughest division. You have

510
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 2: the deal, right, everyone was above five hundred. Unfortunately you

511
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 2: got the Packers in this historical RIVALI so I'm interested

512
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,119
Speaker 2: what the pros you're gonna do. I was warfos come Thursday.

513
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 2: But because city here right now, early money for me.

514
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:16,879
Speaker 2: Chad's give me in that Green Bay plus one and

515
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 2: a half. It's Chica, Chica.

516
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 3: Sit Cogle.

517
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 2: Time.

518
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 1: Sunday games January eleventh. Open up the slate with the

519
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills at the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jags are one point

520
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 1: underdogs at hard Rock, honestly one and a half at

521
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 1: most other places. Total is fifty two.

522
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 4: Fasten your seat belts. It's playoff time. Ready to get

523
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 4: it on in an AFC wild Card and the road

524
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 4: to the super Bowl starts here. The Bills will have

525
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:06,119
Speaker 4: to travel the long way to get to the super

526
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 4: Bowl this year, they will have to go on the road. So,

527
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 4: as I said, fasten your seatbelts, it's time to play football.

528
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 3: On what.

529
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell's confidence in this game? And he has mentioned

530
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 1: it a few times and in our pre show chats,

531
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 1: he's honestly making faces that are so dismissive of the Jags.

532
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:32,159
Speaker 1: Do you know what I mean? Like, have you've seen it?

533
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:35,199
Speaker 1: Like he's scrunching up his eyes, He's like, come on,

534
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,879
Speaker 1: come on, what are we talking about here? We're talking

535
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 1: about a Jacks team that's overrated and the Buffalo Bills

536
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 1: with a MVP quarterback. Like he's projecting so much confidence

537
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:51,240
Speaker 1: right now it almost makes me uncomfortable.

538
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 2: Work hard. It's another game. It's just these are the

539
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 2: only two games. I'm really waffling. Other games. I'm very dug,

540
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 2: you know, but this one here, I wanted to be

541
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 2: on the Jags. And it's like and when I went

542
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:06,360
Speaker 2: to bed then I woke up and thinking what am

543
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 2: I doing what am I doing to go against Josh Allen?

544
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 2: Thank god, though I have a team of nerds that

545
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 2: could hit me with all these stats to kind of

546
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,920
Speaker 2: pull me back and why we do love this Jaguars team.

547
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,160
Speaker 3: But yeah, Matt's confidence.

548
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,399
Speaker 2: I love it because it's so north Northeast by so

549
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 2: if I like where, it's just we're poopooing these Southern teams.

550
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 1: It's a Southern teams. Yeah, these teams aren't tough. They don't.

551
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 1: It's like they're playing seven on seven in Jacksonville.

552
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,640
Speaker 2: But yeah, we we talk all the time about Josh

553
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:37,680
Speaker 2: Allen in the playoffs right where he's at home against

554
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 2: bad teams, we hammer them. I mean last year, where

555
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 2: do they get the Broncos and they just smacked them

556
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 2: around that first round. Unfortunately for them, you know, they're

557
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 2: not up there, they're not at a sweet oed Orchard

558
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,560
Speaker 2: Park Lane. They're they're they're down to Florida and Josh

559
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 2: Allen in the playoffs and his career on the road,

560
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 2: oh un forced it up and I guess has spread. Yikes,

561
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 2: I had no idea said beat Now, I guess that's

562
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 2: a Mahome staff. My god, that's that's pretty rough.

563
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 1: So it's that's entirely Mahomes. I'll tell you right now.

564
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 1: What's what's funny about this is, you know, we put

565
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:19,240
Speaker 1: notes in a script and whatever. Matt Mitchell. The amount

566
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:23,320
Speaker 1: of times he put notes in the script on actual

567
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 1: games that we're talking about over the course of this season,

568
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 1: I can't even I don't know that it's ever happened.

569
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:35,680
Speaker 1: And yet in the script, I have so many notes

570
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 1: about the Bills dominance in the playoffs. I cannot tell you.

571
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 1: Seven consecutive seasons in the playoffs, most in the NFL

572
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 1: since twenty twenty versus Kansas City OHO to four. So

573
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:50,160
Speaker 1: there's your four scoring twenty eight points per game, giving

574
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 1: up thirty five points per game, versus all other teams

575
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 1: seven and one scoring twenty eight giving up nineteen. The

576
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 1: defense gives up half the point versus teams that are

577
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 1: not read and Mahomes. So clearly there's someone in the

578
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 1: scrap two's who's leaning into the Bills.

579
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:11,400
Speaker 3: Which she should.

580
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 2: But yeah, like the other josh An staff, yeah, you

581
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 2: could say it's a lot of Mahomes.

582
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 3: But he also doesn't really cover in the playoffs.

583
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 2: Right his career, he's five eight against the spread in

584
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 2: the playoffs in his career. So it's you know, that's

585
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 2: that's just not a mahomestad. He doesn't cover against other

586
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 2: teams as well. But you know, the Bills, they just

587
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,320
Speaker 2: have not been good on the road. They've lost eight

588
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 2: straight games in the playoffs on the road. Once again,

589
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 2: I get it, it's been the defense that let them down.

590
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 2: This defense is terrible. They don't have a number one receiver.

591
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 2: This Jags team has been putting up in a scene

592
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 2: amount of points. So this just feels like the exact

593
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 2: game that you know, if Josh Allen was a two

594
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 2: point dog or a three point dog. Yes, all over it.

595
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 2: It's gonna be a back and forth game. Whoever's the

596
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 2: ball last is gonna cover?

597
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 3: He's not.

598
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 2: He's a favorite on the road here and he might

599
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 2: be banged up, Like we don't have all the infos,

600
00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 2: so like another game on wallfing on, but being towards

601
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 2: the dog, being towards the Jags, and just you know,

602
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 2: they're just more complete team. They do have a defense

603
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:09,680
Speaker 2: that can get stops. That to me is gonna the

604
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 2: ultimate matchup here. Can they stop Cook like the leading

605
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 2: rusher in the NFL with one of the best old

606
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 2: lines in the Bills. That's their biggest weapon. They can

607
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 2: run the ball, control the clock, never let Lawrence goin

608
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 2: do a rhythm. That's definitely how the Bills win this,

609
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 2: right because of their defense. We've seen it, right, they

610
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 2: get one or two plays that flips the whole game,

611
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 2: because that's all Josh Allen needs. He needs one or

612
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 2: two plays from his defense, and that just gives him

613
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 2: such a boost where you know, like you just read

614
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 2: all those stats every time in the playoffs, he needs

615
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 2: to put up thirty five points and it's no different here,

616
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 2: Like this is gonna to me, it's the one game

617
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 2: I've taken the over, so people.

618
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 3: Aren't gonna be shocked. I'm going all under on the playoffs.

619
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 2: But there's a reason this game is fifty one, Like

620
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 2: the totals fifty one and a half, and I'm gonna

621
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 2: tick that over. I just think it's gonna be a

622
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:57,720
Speaker 2: total shootout here. So yeah, I'm really excited for And

623
00:31:57,800 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 2: if you are like me and you're a little scared

624
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 2: to bet against Josh Allen, you're waving a little bit.

625
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 3: I have just invested in the Jacks first half.

626
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 2: This is a Billston We've been talking to hear about

627
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:10,480
Speaker 2: Josh Allen gets down by fourteen points, we bet Josh

628
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 2: Allen at that point. It's been no different this season.

629
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 2: They're five and twelve against the spread.

630
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 3: In the first half. They've just been terrible.

631
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 2: So if you want to do the coward way and

632
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 2: avoid the full game, I don't mind going Jacks first

633
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 2: half either.

634
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 1: Now Matt Mitchell is just talking trash in the scrant

635
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 1: He's saying, I'm sure the Jacksonville Jaguars will tree Buffalo

636
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 1: like they're just December schedule of the corpse of the

637
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts and the Jets. So we know where Matt

638
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 1: Mitchell is. He's running into the window right now. This

639
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 1: is it, brother, This is it. Four thirty PM game Sunday,

640
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:46,239
Speaker 1: San Francisco forty nine Ers at the Philadelphia Eagles. On

641
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 1: Sunday night, you were talking about the Eagles at minus three.

642
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,880
Speaker 1: Definitely the biggest move of the week so far, of

643
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 1: any game. It's moved up to four and a half.

644
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 1: It's at four hard rock totals forty five.

645
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 5: Philadelphiavania. A true Philadelphia fan learns daboo before.

646
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:05,720
Speaker 3: He learns to speak.

647
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 5: Each Sunday they turn out, many sitting in seats they

648
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 5: inherited from their parents.

649
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 4: You know, our fans come from great stock, and they'll

650
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 4: fight you.

651
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 1: They'll fight you, they'll tell you if you're not doing

652
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 1: a good job.

653
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 3: But they won't let anybody else bow us.

654
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 1: When they're there, they're going to help us win the game.

655
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 1: Niners defense was already in bad shape. Now Tatum Befume

656
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 1: is out with a groin tear. He's going to be

657
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 1: out for the playoffs. But to me, this is really

658
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 1: all about Trent Williams. The Niners are just a different

659
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 1: team when Trent Williams plays. We've done the stats for

660
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 1: so many years about when Trent Williams plays, this team covers,

661
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:45,720
Speaker 1: this team wins when he does not play because they

662
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 1: are so relyant on his dominant run blocking ability. They

663
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 1: are just a different team. We saw it against Seattle

664
00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 1: the other night and when he went out by the way,

665
00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 1: when it was official, the line jumped from one and

666
00:33:56,640 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 1: a half to three. So you know, if he's playing,

667
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 1: I think it's a bit of a different number. I

668
00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:10,759
Speaker 1: don't want to The Eagles rush defense hasn't been great

669
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 1: this year, but I kind of feel like that's a

670
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 1: you can answer this better as an Eagles birdwatcher, but

671
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 1: I don't buy into those stats because I also think

672
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 1: the Eagles pass defense is so dominant in the secondary

673
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 1: that teams just run the ball. More teams ran the

674
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 1: ran the ball more against the Eagles than any other

675
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:35,799
Speaker 1: team this year in the NFL. So a lot of

676
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:38,800
Speaker 1: those are gross numbers. You're gonna have bigger gross numbers

677
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:42,760
Speaker 1: when and I mean gross versus net, not gross gross,

678
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:47,879
Speaker 1: when the team is always running the ball. So I'm

679
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:49,720
Speaker 1: waffling here. I know you love the Eagles.

680
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:53,760
Speaker 3: Take it away, Yeah, I love him. Upset.

681
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:55,800
Speaker 2: I was trying to hide it open. I mean, I

682
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 2: gave out a little bit that was gonna be on them.

683
00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:00,560
Speaker 2: But I can't believe this number bloom owned up like

684
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 2: it did. I thought the public would be all over

685
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:05,920
Speaker 2: the Niners and a lot of pros, but been a little.

686
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:06,399
Speaker 3: Bit of buy back.

687
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:10,000
Speaker 2: I saw a couple of books touch five, came back

688
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:11,239
Speaker 2: down a four and a half, and now a couple

689
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:12,239
Speaker 2: of books are back to fourth.

690
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:14,880
Speaker 3: So yeah, I love this matchup with the Eagles.

691
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 2: Team like the Seattle Seahawks and the Eagles aren't really

692
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:21,839
Speaker 2: not that much different when you really break it down, especially.

693
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:22,319
Speaker 3: When you grade it out.

694
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:25,239
Speaker 2: The Eagles are better, Like if they just had an

695
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 2: OC they would be a better team. They're more the

696
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:30,719
Speaker 2: most complete team, and you could say, well, their run

697
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:33,839
Speaker 2: De French struggled. Glen Carter was basically playing with two

698
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,920
Speaker 2: torn pecks for about six weeks there and they couldn't

699
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 2: stop the run. Since he's been back, he's looked like

700
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 2: his old self and you know, he say he's gonna

701
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:42,760
Speaker 2: get the series. In the off season, whatever they did

702
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 2: to fix his shoulders, you can you can know what's

703
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 2: what different, especially the run defense with him and Jordan Davis,

704
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 2: who you know, Jordan Davis probably be All Pro him

705
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 2: self this season, had a really dominant season. The only

706
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,239
Speaker 2: reason he might not get is because obviously Seahawks have

707
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:57,719
Speaker 2: two dominant All pros themselves in the d line. But

708
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:03,000
Speaker 2: for this game here, I immediately thought, Okay, people are

709
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 2: going to overreact to this Eagles team because they've just

710
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:08,239
Speaker 2: not trust them all season. Where I've talked about it,

711
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:11,200
Speaker 2: they always have done this every year in a sense

712
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:15,319
Speaker 2: that Jalen Hurts does not go on. I know it

713
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 2: sounds bizarre, but he just never lays his body in

714
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 2: the line. During the regular season, and he does in

715
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 2: the playoffs. I mean, Nolan's ever gonna say he's a

716
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 2: top five running quarterback NFL history, but they simply forget

717
00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:27,880
Speaker 2: that in the playoffs.

718
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 3: He is that guy.

719
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:32,799
Speaker 2: And he's his first time in Super Bowl he set

720
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 2: the record for rushing quarterbacks with seventy yards, and he

721
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:37,480
Speaker 2: broke it the next time in the Super Bowl with

722
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:40,400
Speaker 2: seventy two rushing yards. It's just he's a different player

723
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 2: in the playoffs. He just uses his body. He always

724
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:43,719
Speaker 2: will take it down and run it and fight for

725
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:46,640
Speaker 2: those extra yards. And this is a defense that, like

726
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 2: you've talked about or we've talked about, they have the

727
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 2: worst pass rush in all football. They have the least

728
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 2: amount of pressures and sacks this entire season NFL. And

729
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:57,759
Speaker 2: you know, as much good grace you want to give

730
00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:00,120
Speaker 2: the Seattle to Sam Darnold, they really just ran the

731
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 2: ball down their throats here, and you think Saquon be

732
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 2: able to do that as well.

733
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 3: So you know, look at the numbers.

734
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:07,799
Speaker 2: Jalen hurts at home in the playoffs five and zero

735
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 2: straight up in his career, four and one against the spread,

736
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:12,720
Speaker 2: winning those games all like twenty one points per game,

737
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 2: you know, in his career, so including the regular season,

738
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:20,719
Speaker 2: hurts thirty one and five straight up at home when

739
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:24,080
Speaker 2: he's a home favorite in December or later, thirteen.

740
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 3: Oh one straight up in his career at home.

741
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 2: So he just dominates to win these games. On the

742
00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 2: flip side of Rock Purty, who's you know, been a

743
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:31,279
Speaker 2: great quarterback.

744
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 3: We've talked a little about it.

745
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 2: He's a weird guy where when he's a dog, the

746
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 2: books I went against it last week with him against Seattle,

747
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:40,320
Speaker 2: the books are telling a little bit that Bertie Perty

748
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:43,240
Speaker 2: struggles as a dog, especially against good defense. In his career,

749
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 2: every time he's a dog is against a top fight

750
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:47,720
Speaker 2: rated defense, which if you look at all the metrics

751
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:50,719
Speaker 2: of the season, the Eagles did finish top five and these

752
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:52,880
Speaker 2: amounts of points, giving up the yards, all of it,

753
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:55,799
Speaker 2: Eagles were a top five graded defense pretty his career,

754
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 2: zero one to four straight up against the spread as

755
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 2: a dog in this exact game against top five defenses,

756
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:03,919
Speaker 2: failing to cover the spread by almost twelve points per game.

757
00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:07,080
Speaker 2: So Perty just does not play well against dominant defense

758
00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 2: like that. And you saw you talked a little bit

759
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 2: of Trent last week. I think the biggest thing I

760
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:14,120
Speaker 2: knew this was McCaffrey just looked slow. He looked banged up,

761
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 2: and he looked like a guy that's had what four

762
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:18,400
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty touches this season. I mean, he was

763
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 2: a couple you know, maybe it was fifty yards away

764
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:23,400
Speaker 2: from a thousand thousand yard season and he had almost

765
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:26,319
Speaker 2: one hundred catches, so you know, you saw a catch

766
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:27,839
Speaker 2: up to him. He just carried the load. And it's

767
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 2: really wear and tear. So they're playing a rested team

768
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 2: against this Eagles team, and this Niners had an all

769
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 2: out brawl the week before against Seattle. So I totally

770
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:39,279
Speaker 2: get why the pros have come in so heavy on

771
00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:41,560
Speaker 2: this Eagles team. And I'm gonna grab it now. I

772
00:38:41,560 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 2: think it keeps going up. I think if Lane Johnson

773
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:46,960
Speaker 2: gets cleared, I can easily see this creeping up back

774
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 2: again to five and maybe close at six. And this

775
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 2: is why I love this week so much. This is

776
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:54,800
Speaker 2: the biggest home favorite this week. Isn't that not crazy?

777
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:57,839
Speaker 2: Eagles minus four. It's just this season was so good

778
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:00,200
Speaker 2: in this playoffs, it just lined up that way with

779
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 2: these home teams.

780
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:03,840
Speaker 3: Eagle's the biggest favorite is minus four it's crazy.

781
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:08,319
Speaker 1: The best the number was three. You don't mind it

782
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:11,000
Speaker 1: at four? What is your ceiling for betting.

783
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:13,960
Speaker 3: This with Lane Johnson, I have this said six and

784
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:14,440
Speaker 3: a half?

785
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 1: Wow, all right, but.

786
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 2: Again that's not that shocking just because this fore and

787
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:22,839
Speaker 2: iis team. You just said they're decimated with injuries. So yeah,

788
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:25,800
Speaker 2: they whooped all these really bad defense. You saw Susy

789
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:28,839
Speaker 2: run to a legit defense. That was shocking. I can't

790
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:30,839
Speaker 2: I still can't believe Prettily put up three points. That

791
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:35,719
Speaker 2: was truly shocking. But yeah, the Eagles defense obviously not

792
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 2: as good as Seattle, but like you said, one of

793
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:40,400
Speaker 2: the best, one of the best pass defense in football

794
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 2: this season has been the Eagles, So it's gonna be

795
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:43,640
Speaker 2: a treat test for Purtier on the road.

796
00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 1: Uh again, the total is forty five.

797
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:51,040
Speaker 3: Hammer that under, hammer that under.

798
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:55,439
Speaker 1: Last game on Sunday the Los Angeles Chargers plus three

799
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 1: and a half visiting the New England Patriots. I will

800
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:01,480
Speaker 1: refer to your comment a few weeks ago when we

801
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:05,440
Speaker 1: were talking about the Patriots. I can't wait to fade

802
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 1: the Patriots in the playoffs. We know the trends you've

803
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 1: mentioned at the top about first year quarterbacks in the

804
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:18,400
Speaker 1: playoffs against veteran quarterbacks. We bet, we bet the Chargers

805
00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 1: on Sunday night at three and a half. It's one

806
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:24,160
Speaker 1: of the few numbers that kind of hasn't moved, no

807
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 1: juice movement, no number movement. Total in this game is

808
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 1: forty six. We're on the Chargers even though they're their

809
00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:36,040
Speaker 1: offensive line is decimated, and we know that the Patriots

810
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:39,360
Speaker 1: are getting totally healthy. I think we're just back in

811
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 1: a veteran quarterback here and fading the team that has

812
00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:46,600
Speaker 1: been getting a lot of flat for playing in a really

813
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:47,759
Speaker 1: easy schedule all year.

814
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you're not lying like I I every time

815
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:56,000
Speaker 2: I go through these Chargers offensive line grades, just fucking

816
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 2: run blocking, just of it.

817
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 3: It's crazy how bad they are. They are.

818
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:04,040
Speaker 2: If there was five more teams NFL, they might be

819
00:41:04,120 --> 00:41:06,400
Speaker 2: the thirty six Worths offensive.

820
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:11,160
Speaker 3: So it's it's crazy how bad they are.

821
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:14,400
Speaker 2: But it's not their fault, right, They lost two tackles

822
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:16,880
Speaker 2: they took at crazy high draft picks and that was

823
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:19,360
Speaker 2: going to be the thing that made that big difference

824
00:41:19,360 --> 00:41:21,480
Speaker 2: for them the season. So Herbert, you know guy I

825
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 2: love hating on because of his playoff failures, can you

826
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:27,640
Speaker 2: give him a pass this year because he is going

827
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:30,600
Speaker 2: into such a hostile environment and playing against a team

828
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 2: that has played really well this year in the Spatriers team. Sure,

829
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:35,919
Speaker 2: but this is a game that he should win, right,

830
00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:38,000
Speaker 2: Herbert should win this game. And you really break it

831
00:41:38,040 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 2: all down, this is a Chargers defense that they're They're

832
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:42,960
Speaker 2: the reason they've been winning this year. Mint I talked

833
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:47,360
Speaker 2: about he's been great, and we've talked all the time Herbert,

834
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:49,120
Speaker 2: this is a blind bet. I think we talked something

835
00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:51,320
Speaker 2: that you blindly bet this year. Herbert as a dog,

836
00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 2: let alone a dog above three and three thirteen, six

837
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 2: and one in his career as a starter, and this

838
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:03,040
Speaker 2: season shocking as a dog. He's had four straight up wins,

839
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:05,680
Speaker 2: which in the past he's not won a lot as

840
00:42:05,719 --> 00:42:07,799
Speaker 2: a dog straight up This year though, he's four and

841
00:42:07,840 --> 00:42:11,239
Speaker 2: oh so really impressive what Herbert's done as a dog.

842
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 2: And you know, we talked to the little streak he

843
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 2: had ready he stole that game from the Eagles. He

844
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:17,120
Speaker 2: was playing terrible, that defense played well enough and Herbert

845
00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:19,279
Speaker 2: made enough big time thurs to steal that game. And

846
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 2: same thing the next week, he stole that game. And

847
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:23,840
Speaker 2: you know it's just been that type of year for

848
00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 2: Herbert in this offense. So you know I was coming

849
00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:30,440
Speaker 2: to this, I was thinking, Okay, this number will get

850
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:33,279
Speaker 2: bumped up. Everyone's gonna hammer this Patriots team. I think

851
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:36,720
Speaker 2: even Patriots fans are like a little scared here because

852
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:40,240
Speaker 2: they are going berserk about this MVP nonsense.

853
00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:41,800
Speaker 3: And I'm loving on the outside.

854
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:44,720
Speaker 2: It's it's the best because you see from both points

855
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:47,040
Speaker 2: of views and you see how both sides are just

856
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 2: trying to tear into each other. But you know, it

857
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:52,040
Speaker 2: is true everything we've said about Drake May and how

858
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:56,080
Speaker 2: he's been against winning teams and you know, in his

859
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 2: career or not his career, this season at home against

860
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:02,600
Speaker 2: teams that are above five hundred, he is just one

861
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:05,800
Speaker 2: and three straight up in these games. And I'm just

862
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:07,880
Speaker 2: in this year he's ohe to one this year. So,

863
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:10,200
Speaker 2: like we talked about, he hasn't really played teams of

864
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:12,319
Speaker 2: winning records. He's only he played the Bills at home

865
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:15,480
Speaker 2: and he lost that game obviously, so you know, true

866
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:17,840
Speaker 2: tests for them and Vrabel and you know in his

867
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:20,359
Speaker 2: in his career hardball, I know this is obviously before

868
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:22,680
Speaker 2: Vrabel was there, He's done really well coming up to

869
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 2: New England when Bill but Bill, Bill Belichick was the coach.

870
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 2: I believe it's two and oh his career hardball easy

871
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:29,239
Speaker 2: for you to say, yeah, he's got he's got the

872
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:30,960
Speaker 2: history on his side with that in the travel. But

873
00:43:32,040 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 2: I love that the Chargers rest of their starters. I

874
00:43:34,719 --> 00:43:37,120
Speaker 2: just think of very when I think about this game.

875
00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:39,080
Speaker 2: It's like, that's a team that really needed that rest,

876
00:43:39,120 --> 00:43:42,840
Speaker 2: especially that offensive line altogether. So, uh, if it was

877
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:45,200
Speaker 2: two and a half, maybe I could be talking to

878
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 2: the Patriots. But three, if you only could get three

879
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:49,440
Speaker 2: of your book, that's the best thing we can get it.

880
00:43:49,600 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 2: I'd still take the Chargers. But there's three and a

881
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:54,320
Speaker 2: halfs everywhere. So I really like the Chargers in this number.

882
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 2: And you know another game where the under just feels

883
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 2: like the right number, where I cannot believe that felt

884
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 2: like it was gonna be a forty two to forty

885
00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 2: one total. I gotta tell you, they don't know forty seven. Chat,

886
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 2: it's already down to forty six and a half. So

887
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 2: I keep betting that one. This feels like a defensive

888
00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:11,960
Speaker 2: slug match. And I gave up those numbers charges defense

889
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:14,719
Speaker 2: number one against deep ball pass and so I love this.

890
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:16,200
Speaker 3: Drake may one of the best.

891
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 2: Deep ball throwers this season easily, uh best test he's

892
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:21,560
Speaker 2: had all year. It's gonna be the charges of defense

893
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 2: trying to throw deep, especially against James, and that's that safety.

894
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:30,719
Speaker 1: The total feels so high for are. It was a

895
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:32,880
Speaker 1: game with two coaches who you know they're going to

896
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:33,839
Speaker 1: want to be conservative.

897
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:38,120
Speaker 2: Shockingly, I've I've seen three different books, all their numbers

898
00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 2: show the early money is on the overs, so it

899
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:42,319
Speaker 2: could it could go back up, but it did open.

900
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:44,000
Speaker 2: It came down a little bit. Just I want people

901
00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:46,120
Speaker 2: to grab these unders now, just in case the pros

902
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:48,080
Speaker 2: do come in then we don't know. We don't know

903
00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:49,520
Speaker 2: yet what the weather is going to be, but there

904
00:44:49,560 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 2: could be a no O eastern coming for this for

905
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:53,200
Speaker 2: the Sun Daggs game, so it should be interesting.

906
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:55,719
Speaker 1: Let's do a quick word from our friends at hard Rock.

907
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936
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937
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939
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941
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:52,520
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942
00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:55,840
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943
00:46:55,880 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia. All right, brother, Monday

944
00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:06,440
Speaker 1: Night football. We got the Houston Texans visiting the glorious, miraculous,

945
00:47:06,560 --> 00:47:11,000
Speaker 1: so much fun, all the emotions. Pittsburgh Steelers. They're three

946
00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:13,239
Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs at home. The total is

947
00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:14,080
Speaker 1: thirty nine and a half.

948
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:20,160
Speaker 5: Put yourself in this difficult situation. You're a professional football player,

949
00:47:20,840 --> 00:47:25,200
Speaker 5: Your team is on the road and your team bus

950
00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:35,120
Speaker 5: has just arrived outside Pittsburgh's Three River Stadium.

951
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:37,799
Speaker 1: Before I get into it, lay it on me.

952
00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:38,600
Speaker 3: Yeah.

953
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:41,120
Speaker 2: Going back to the whelchat, Simon says, give me this

954
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:44,120
Speaker 2: Steelers team plus three and a half home dog.

955
00:47:44,440 --> 00:47:47,400
Speaker 3: I want to play a game, Simon says.

956
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 1: Simon says, presented by hard Rock Bed, Pittsburgh Steelers plus

957
00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:53,319
Speaker 1: three and.

958
00:47:53,360 --> 00:47:57,680
Speaker 2: A half made an opportunity to get a quality dude

959
00:47:58,040 --> 00:47:58,800
Speaker 2: at a discount.

960
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:03,600
Speaker 1: Talking about I love it. I mean, I bet it

961
00:48:03,680 --> 00:48:06,319
Speaker 1: before we even spoke about it. I don't even mind

962
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:09,880
Speaker 1: the total here, Like the under for me is so interesting.

963
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:12,520
Speaker 1: People are going to be fooled by what the Texans

964
00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:14,880
Speaker 1: did last week and their offense, and they're going to

965
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:17,919
Speaker 1: see thirty eight points. They're not going to realize that

966
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:21,960
Speaker 1: one of those touchdowns came at the end of the

967
00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 1: game when the Colts were going pitchy pitchy, woo woo

968
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:28,960
Speaker 1: and one of the Texans huge defensive linemen got the

969
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:30,799
Speaker 1: ball and ran it back for a touchdown from ten

970
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:33,959
Speaker 1: yards out. They had six field goals in that game,

971
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:37,680
Speaker 1: so the Texans offense only scored fourteen points. We know

972
00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:39,920
Speaker 1: the Steelers went crazy in that game, but they went

973
00:48:39,920 --> 00:48:43,800
Speaker 1: crazy because Kyle Hamilton left the game and the Texans

974
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:48,720
Speaker 1: defense is just so freaking good. So this is prime

975
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:53,920
Speaker 1: to be one of those seventeen fourteen games. The Steelers

976
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:57,319
Speaker 1: are getting dk Metcalf back. But give me your thoughts here,

977
00:48:57,360 --> 00:49:00,320
Speaker 1: give me your logic. Is it a row rot? Tomlins spout?

978
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:01,000
Speaker 1: What's the theory?

979
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:03,160
Speaker 3: Look the greatest of all time? Look at your work.

980
00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:05,520
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, Oh, I'm aboun to spend like ten minutes

981
00:49:05,560 --> 00:49:08,439
Speaker 2: here on this team. I love this line so much.

982
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:13,080
Speaker 2: Biggest bet by far this week has been Pittsburgh on

983
00:49:13,120 --> 00:49:16,200
Speaker 2: the three and a half and can't get enough of it,

984
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:18,400
Speaker 2: can't And the books are loving it because everyone's just

985
00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:21,600
Speaker 2: hammering Houston. Every book I go to, they go, yeah, yeah, yeah,

986
00:49:21,640 --> 00:49:23,720
Speaker 2: We'll give you the three and halfl series. It's the best.

987
00:49:23,960 --> 00:49:25,879
Speaker 2: It's a good time here on Bermuda. I'm not gonna lie.

988
00:49:25,920 --> 00:49:29,440
Speaker 2: It's a great time. I knew all these stats were

989
00:49:29,480 --> 00:49:32,640
Speaker 2: gonna be insane with Aaron Rodgers and the fact that

990
00:49:32,680 --> 00:49:36,040
Speaker 2: he is I know it's a long time ago, but he,

991
00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:37,480
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, is a Super Bowl

992
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:39,920
Speaker 2: winning quarterback who is now in the playoffs, and that

993
00:49:40,080 --> 00:49:42,879
Speaker 2: to me will always be an advantage. Now He's never repeated, right,

994
00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:45,359
Speaker 2: I mean those Green Bay teams, I think every time

995
00:49:45,400 --> 00:49:46,799
Speaker 2: me and you were on the other side. Luckily, we

996
00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:49,600
Speaker 2: just always faded him in the conference championship game and

997
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:50,560
Speaker 2: they just always blew it.

998
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:51,279
Speaker 3: But this is not that.

999
00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:53,640
Speaker 2: This is a wild card weekend with Rogers as a

1000
00:49:53,640 --> 00:49:56,480
Speaker 2: home dog. And you know, the numbers are pretty insane.

1001
00:49:56,520 --> 00:50:00,279
Speaker 2: Since two thousand and three, super winning book super winning

1002
00:50:00,400 --> 00:50:05,520
Speaker 2: quarterbacks in the playoffs, they're underdog sixty four, twenty five

1003
00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:09,359
Speaker 2: and two, so seventy two against the spread after they

1004
00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:12,360
Speaker 2: win a super Bowl since twenty eighteen, these quarterbacks, so

1005
00:50:12,440 --> 00:50:15,359
Speaker 2: quarterbacks have won super Bowls in their career after twenty

1006
00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:18,160
Speaker 2: eighteen in the playoffs as an underdog sixteen and five

1007
00:50:18,239 --> 00:50:20,920
Speaker 2: against the spread. I agree, they've been there. They've been

1008
00:50:20,920 --> 00:50:23,279
Speaker 2: in those moments. It's hardly Wait.

1009
00:50:23,160 --> 00:50:26,400
Speaker 1: Wait, was that first stat for quarterbacks since two thousand

1010
00:50:26,400 --> 00:50:30,560
Speaker 1: and three only as an underdog or was that against

1011
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:32,600
Speaker 1: the spread as super Bowl winning quarterbacks?

1012
00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:35,759
Speaker 2: Okay, I can't believe I'm saying this, but I feel

1013
00:50:35,760 --> 00:50:38,360
Speaker 2: like Pittsburgh's defense has gotten better all season.

1014
00:50:38,400 --> 00:50:39,200
Speaker 3: I know you can get better.

1015
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:43,279
Speaker 2: Their defense had just total horrible blown coverages and only

1016
00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 2: to get me started on Jalen Ramsey. But they always

1017
00:50:46,160 --> 00:50:48,279
Speaker 2: find a way to get the turnover and they've been

1018
00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:51,560
Speaker 2: better against their run. And you know I always talked

1019
00:50:51,600 --> 00:50:52,280
Speaker 2: about Tomlin.

1020
00:50:52,840 --> 00:50:54,960
Speaker 3: That's a bad moment right here for you, young stuns.

1021
00:50:55,000 --> 00:50:55,520
Speaker 3: Let's live.

1022
00:50:55,800 --> 00:50:57,560
Speaker 2: The Monday night stats with him are crazy. I think

1023
00:50:57,600 --> 00:50:59,240
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago, I was pounding the table.

1024
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:01,640
Speaker 2: You have to take Steelers on a Monday night game,

1025
00:51:01,840 --> 00:51:05,320
Speaker 2: just blindly take their money line against that horrible Miami

1026
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:08,520
Speaker 2: Dolphins team. And what did they beat him by? Like

1027
00:51:08,560 --> 00:51:11,400
Speaker 2: twenty points? It's just as shone as I saw. They

1028
00:51:11,400 --> 00:51:12,960
Speaker 2: gave him the money night game. I was so happy

1029
00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:16,000
Speaker 2: for Pittsburgh because it's all lining up like I'm I'm

1030
00:51:16,000 --> 00:51:17,319
Speaker 2: gonna keep going through this game, but I do have

1031
00:51:17,360 --> 00:51:19,120
Speaker 2: some NFL futures I'm gonna throw out here at the end.

1032
00:51:19,160 --> 00:51:24,520
Speaker 2: But Tomlin and Pittsburgh at home on a Monday night

1033
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:26,960
Speaker 2: in his career, are you just say any even on

1034
00:51:26,960 --> 00:51:29,840
Speaker 2: the road included, he's twenty three and five in his

1035
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:32,279
Speaker 2: career Tomlin on the road or at home, straight up

1036
00:51:32,280 --> 00:51:36,799
Speaker 2: in his career on Monday night at home, he's twelve

1037
00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:40,600
Speaker 2: and one, straight up the only loss was during COVID,

1038
00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:42,200
Speaker 2: so there's no fans in the stands.

1039
00:51:42,239 --> 00:51:43,919
Speaker 3: That was the only loss under Tomlin at home.

1040
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:48,080
Speaker 2: Going back even further so in nineteen ninety two, they

1041
00:51:48,080 --> 00:51:50,440
Speaker 2: are twenty three and one straight up at home. That

1042
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:54,160
Speaker 2: only loss, once again was during Coke. The Pittsburgh Steelers

1043
00:51:54,160 --> 00:51:55,240
Speaker 2: do not lose at home.

1044
00:51:55,080 --> 00:51:55,759
Speaker 3: On Monday Night.

1045
00:51:57,080 --> 00:52:01,280
Speaker 5: There are teams in Pro football and then there are

1046
00:52:01,280 --> 00:52:02,759
Speaker 5: the Pittsburgh steel.

1047
00:52:06,640 --> 00:52:09,480
Speaker 2: The voodoo keep talking about it. It doesn't make sense. You

1048
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:13,080
Speaker 2: just blindly bet it. It's a winners. It's what they do.

1049
00:52:13,120 --> 00:52:16,080
Speaker 2: They win and cover these games. And we've seen Stroud

1050
00:52:16,160 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 2: in his career. Stroud has been great at home. We

1051
00:52:19,360 --> 00:52:21,120
Speaker 2: bet him at home. I think he's two to zero

1052
00:52:21,120 --> 00:52:23,919
Speaker 2: straight up and against his spread his career, but he's

1053
00:52:23,960 --> 00:52:25,279
Speaker 2: never won on the road in his career in the

1054
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:28,080
Speaker 2: playoffs or covered for that matter, in his career.

1055
00:52:28,840 --> 00:52:30,560
Speaker 3: They have had two games on the road.

1056
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:34,040
Speaker 2: He has scored twenty four points total in those matchups

1057
00:52:34,320 --> 00:52:36,680
Speaker 2: so combined, and both games he scored less than fourteen

1058
00:52:36,680 --> 00:52:40,160
Speaker 2: points in those games. So we've just seen them offensively

1059
00:52:40,239 --> 00:52:42,480
Speaker 2: struggle even more so this year. Right, this has been

1060
00:52:42,760 --> 00:52:45,360
Speaker 2: a weakness to them all year. So I see this

1061
00:52:45,440 --> 00:52:47,839
Speaker 2: being a gross type of game with DK back. That's

1062
00:52:47,840 --> 00:52:50,359
Speaker 2: a huge advantage where you just saw Houston they give

1063
00:52:50,440 --> 00:52:52,680
Speaker 2: up big plays downfield and you've seen Rogers get more

1064
00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:56,200
Speaker 2: comfortable pushing the ball downfield. So I love this matchup

1065
00:52:56,239 --> 00:52:59,359
Speaker 2: so much for this team. And should I get into

1066
00:52:59,360 --> 00:53:00,799
Speaker 2: the futures chattery You've got more to say on.

1067
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:03,600
Speaker 1: This game, dude, you're on a roll. I'm just going

1068
00:53:03,680 --> 00:53:04,680
Speaker 1: to sit back and enjoy.

1069
00:53:06,520 --> 00:53:09,719
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, it's Oh, I did forget once sat the

1070
00:53:09,760 --> 00:53:12,239
Speaker 2: Texans who run a nine game win streak. You think

1071
00:53:12,280 --> 00:53:15,600
Speaker 2: that would be good. Historically that's actually terrible for the playoffs.

1072
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:18,000
Speaker 2: So teams on a nine game straight up win streak

1073
00:53:18,400 --> 00:53:21,879
Speaker 2: entering the playoffs six and nineteen against the spread since

1074
00:53:21,920 --> 00:53:24,239
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two in the wild Card round, feeling to

1075
00:53:24,280 --> 00:53:26,640
Speaker 2: cover by four points per game when the teams are

1076
00:53:26,680 --> 00:53:30,080
Speaker 2: favorites in this matchup five and fourteen against the spread.

1077
00:53:30,200 --> 00:53:31,000
Speaker 3: So I know that's.

1078
00:53:30,880 --> 00:53:33,879
Speaker 2: Bizarre, but it just shows how the public overrates them, right.

1079
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 2: They kind of bet the number up too much, and

1080
00:53:35,640 --> 00:53:38,239
Speaker 2: historically it's always a point or two up, way higher

1081
00:53:38,280 --> 00:53:40,080
Speaker 2: than it should be. Actually had this game at two,

1082
00:53:40,280 --> 00:53:41,640
Speaker 2: so I think it's a point a half off and

1083
00:53:41,640 --> 00:53:43,399
Speaker 2: you're getting a really good value here.

1084
00:53:43,880 --> 00:53:44,840
Speaker 3: But let's get to the future.

1085
00:53:45,200 --> 00:53:47,000
Speaker 1: One one question, do you think it'll get to four?

1086
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:50,000
Speaker 1: Because there are numbers out there, like the juice is

1087
00:53:50,000 --> 00:53:51,640
Speaker 1: all over the board on this everyone is at three

1088
00:53:51,680 --> 00:53:54,480
Speaker 1: and a half, but some people are like three and

1089
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:57,480
Speaker 1: a half minut plus three and a half minus one twenty.

1090
00:53:57,520 --> 00:53:59,759
Speaker 1: And then there's another place that isn't minus three and

1091
00:53:59,800 --> 00:54:04,160
Speaker 1: a half half and looks like it's minus one and twenty.

1092
00:54:04,200 --> 00:54:07,359
Speaker 1: So it looks like it's moving in any direction here.

1093
00:54:08,760 --> 00:54:11,879
Speaker 2: I will say this, a group I really respect put

1094
00:54:12,000 --> 00:54:14,440
Speaker 2: a sizeable bet. They work with one of the biggest

1095
00:54:15,080 --> 00:54:17,319
Speaker 2: books in the country, a very public book, and they're

1096
00:54:17,400 --> 00:54:20,919
Speaker 2: kind of the one group they let pick their other

1097
00:54:20,960 --> 00:54:23,560
Speaker 2: side of even their books out. They took a substantial

1098
00:54:23,600 --> 00:54:25,800
Speaker 2: bet on the Steelers and they moved them to three.

1099
00:54:25,880 --> 00:54:28,360
Speaker 2: So okay, we will see if a big book like

1100
00:54:28,400 --> 00:54:30,279
Speaker 2: that is the first to go to three. Usually other

1101
00:54:30,320 --> 00:54:33,239
Speaker 2: books that are a little smaller follows suit even off air,

1102
00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:35,719
Speaker 2: like they just will follow those big books that way,

1103
00:54:35,800 --> 00:54:38,640
Speaker 2: So it could like I talked about that Lamar game,

1104
00:54:39,000 --> 00:54:40,239
Speaker 2: I said this one might get up to four and

1105
00:54:40,280 --> 00:54:42,480
Speaker 2: a half by kickoff the public is not like Pittsburgh

1106
00:54:42,520 --> 00:54:45,280
Speaker 2: every time they win it's always luck, where we always

1107
00:54:45,280 --> 00:54:45,719
Speaker 2: say it's.

1108
00:54:45,640 --> 00:54:46,680
Speaker 3: Not luck, it's voodoo.

1109
00:54:46,800 --> 00:54:48,680
Speaker 2: And I think more people are starting to see that

1110
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:52,319
Speaker 2: Tomlin voodo is a real thing. So it's to my

1111
00:54:52,360 --> 00:54:55,600
Speaker 2: greater point of the Steelers team gave you that stat

1112
00:54:55,680 --> 00:54:58,480
Speaker 2: about Rogers. He will be a dog every round in

1113
00:54:58,480 --> 00:55:01,680
Speaker 2: this playoffs. So let's really think about this people. What

1114
00:55:01,840 --> 00:55:04,480
Speaker 2: is his path when you break this down? What is

1115
00:55:04,480 --> 00:55:06,880
Speaker 2: his path? And right now you can get him a

1116
00:55:06,960 --> 00:55:09,040
Speaker 2: fifty five to one to win the Super Bowl, which

1117
00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:10,000
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's going to happen.

1118
00:55:10,040 --> 00:55:11,480
Speaker 3: I don't think it's gonna happen obviously.

1119
00:55:11,880 --> 00:55:14,359
Speaker 2: I mean Tomlin hasn't won a playoff game, and six

1120
00:55:14,400 --> 00:55:16,360
Speaker 2: times if their own six, it gets to spread and

1121
00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:18,600
Speaker 2: straight up their last six playoff games.

1122
00:55:18,360 --> 00:55:21,560
Speaker 3: It's it's been bad. But this is exact break he needs.

1123
00:55:21,600 --> 00:55:24,040
Speaker 2: He finally has that veteran quarterback who's been there since

1124
00:55:24,040 --> 00:55:27,360
Speaker 2: he's had Roethlisberger, and an offense that has been played

1125
00:55:27,480 --> 00:55:29,680
Speaker 2: better down the stretch in their path.

1126
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:30,560
Speaker 3: I just can't get over it.

1127
00:55:30,640 --> 00:55:33,239
Speaker 2: You're telling me what stands in their way is the

1128
00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:36,680
Speaker 2: two seed of Drake may or a rock you know,

1129
00:55:37,120 --> 00:55:39,799
Speaker 2: bow Knicks at the one seed a team and none

1130
00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:41,839
Speaker 2: of us really triable even in Denver it goes. Their

1131
00:55:41,840 --> 00:55:44,400
Speaker 2: defense has been and you know, as great as Bonecks

1132
00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:47,279
Speaker 2: played this season, I could still lie to myself and

1133
00:55:47,280 --> 00:55:49,879
Speaker 2: see a path Ran Rodgers and this team can get

1134
00:55:49,920 --> 00:55:52,680
Speaker 2: through that. Like there's just there is no Mahomes. And

1135
00:55:52,719 --> 00:55:56,520
Speaker 2: as much as I'm scared of Josh Allen and the Bills,

1136
00:55:57,080 --> 00:55:58,680
Speaker 2: it wouldn't be at home. He would have to become

1137
00:55:58,719 --> 00:56:00,839
Speaker 2: to Pittsburgh. I already gave you those stats. He just

1138
00:56:01,280 --> 00:56:04,520
Speaker 2: is a different quarterback on the road. So I just

1139
00:56:04,560 --> 00:56:06,600
Speaker 2: see this for Roger, this Pittsburgh team. I know it

1140
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:08,319
Speaker 2: sounds crazy, but you just have to throw a little

1141
00:56:08,320 --> 00:56:09,640
Speaker 2: bit on if you don't want to take the money

1142
00:56:09,680 --> 00:56:11,840
Speaker 2: line here, I think that's the bet. Don't take the

1143
00:56:11,840 --> 00:56:14,359
Speaker 2: money on Pittsburgh, take the fifty five to one because

1144
00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:16,000
Speaker 2: we can just hedge it if we want next round.

1145
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:19,120
Speaker 2: But I for my long shot favorite team, this is

1146
00:56:19,120 --> 00:56:21,120
Speaker 2: by far out of all the teams. I think this

1147
00:56:21,200 --> 00:56:22,680
Speaker 2: has the best value of fifty five to one, and

1148
00:56:22,680 --> 00:56:25,160
Speaker 2: they were sixty to one. I'm in to pros bet

1149
00:56:25,200 --> 00:56:25,960
Speaker 2: it down a little bit.

1150
00:56:26,480 --> 00:56:29,560
Speaker 1: I'm in Simon, I'm in. Matt Mitchell was in I'm

1151
00:56:29,560 --> 00:56:33,279
Speaker 1: telling you right now, we're all in together. We're doing

1152
00:56:33,280 --> 00:56:33,760
Speaker 1: a grouper.

1153
00:56:35,080 --> 00:56:36,680
Speaker 2: And then for the chalk side, I always give out

1154
00:56:36,680 --> 00:56:39,480
Speaker 2: one chalk side. Last year, if nailed it ten to

1155
00:56:39,560 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 2: one on the Eagles, same thing this year. I already

1156
00:56:42,200 --> 00:56:43,600
Speaker 2: broke it down for you. I still think they're the

1157
00:56:43,600 --> 00:56:46,560
Speaker 2: best team the NFC. Their Achilles silo is gonna be

1158
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:49,600
Speaker 2: the OC. I think Petula is truly an idiot, and

1159
00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:51,879
Speaker 2: the position that you need to be the smartest person

1160
00:56:51,880 --> 00:56:52,239
Speaker 2: in the room.

1161
00:56:52,280 --> 00:56:54,640
Speaker 3: In the NFL, the OC needs to be the smartest person.

1162
00:56:54,680 --> 00:56:58,200
Speaker 2: The defenses are so complex these days, you really need

1163
00:56:58,239 --> 00:57:00,479
Speaker 2: a genius. And that's that's fearful to me. But everything

1164
00:57:00,520 --> 00:57:03,839
Speaker 2: I've read Sieranni's helping out the QB coach. Everyone has

1165
00:57:03,840 --> 00:57:06,759
Speaker 2: had their imprint on this offense. And you've seen they're

1166
00:57:06,840 --> 00:57:09,040
Speaker 2: listening to the listening to the nerds, like they're taking

1167
00:57:09,080 --> 00:57:11,640
Speaker 2: more snaps on their center, which is better for them offensively,

1168
00:57:11,880 --> 00:57:13,439
Speaker 2: they run better out of it. And now with Lane

1169
00:57:13,480 --> 00:57:16,440
Speaker 2: Johnson coming back, I just think this team's been undervalued

1170
00:57:16,480 --> 00:57:19,200
Speaker 2: by the public, like they're the defending Super Bowl champs.

1171
00:57:19,280 --> 00:57:21,280
Speaker 2: No one's talking about that way, Like when you hear

1172
00:57:22,200 --> 00:57:24,720
Speaker 2: the NFC, they keep seeing how it's wide open, even

1173
00:57:24,760 --> 00:57:26,200
Speaker 2: though you know this team could have been the.

1174
00:57:26,200 --> 00:57:29,320
Speaker 3: Two seats, so it's it's suped on. Right now.

1175
00:57:29,320 --> 00:57:30,640
Speaker 2: I think you get them eleven to one or ten

1176
00:57:30,680 --> 00:57:33,120
Speaker 2: to one a couple different books. I just if you

1177
00:57:33,120 --> 00:57:34,600
Speaker 2: are Goya think it's a homer of me, it's really not.

1178
00:57:34,640 --> 00:57:36,440
Speaker 2: I'm just going off the numbers. I have them as

1179
00:57:36,480 --> 00:57:39,280
Speaker 2: a slight favorite over the Seahawks right now. The books

1180
00:57:39,280 --> 00:57:41,400
Speaker 2: have the Seahawks of the one and then right behind

1181
00:57:41,440 --> 00:57:43,880
Speaker 2: them the Rams. Like, to me, that's insane when you

1182
00:57:43,920 --> 00:57:46,600
Speaker 2: really think about it. So yeah, I'm gonna take the

1183
00:57:46,600 --> 00:57:48,520
Speaker 2: Eagles at longer odds on those two teams.

1184
00:57:48,680 --> 00:57:52,160
Speaker 1: All right, So futures, we like the Steelers fifty five

1185
00:57:52,200 --> 00:57:55,120
Speaker 1: to one. We like the Eagles at about ten to

1186
00:57:55,160 --> 00:57:58,480
Speaker 1: one right now because they are behind the Seahawks and

1187
00:57:58,520 --> 00:58:03,000
Speaker 1: the Rams. So much talk about the Rams. I will

1188
00:58:03,000 --> 00:58:08,680
Speaker 1: say that the only preseason Super Bowl future I have

1189
00:58:08,920 --> 00:58:11,440
Speaker 1: that really means I have. I think I have the

1190
00:58:11,560 --> 00:58:15,280
Speaker 1: Niners at like twenty to one or something like that.

1191
00:58:15,880 --> 00:58:20,400
Speaker 1: But the rest of it for me is matchups, and unfortunately,

1192
00:58:21,240 --> 00:58:25,280
Speaker 1: I think the only matchup I have left is I

1193
00:58:25,360 --> 00:58:36,520
Speaker 1: got Niners, Packers, Eagles, Niners, Packers, Eagles against the Bills.

1194
00:58:36,920 --> 00:58:40,360
Speaker 1: Any one of those and I make a killing. But

1195
00:58:40,600 --> 00:58:43,280
Speaker 1: you know, I had the Bengals, I had the Chiefs,

1196
00:58:44,200 --> 00:58:47,560
Speaker 1: the Ravens. Those are all dead dead.

1197
00:58:48,680 --> 00:58:51,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I gave out that's still alive.

1198
00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:55,920
Speaker 2: Rams versus Bills at crazy odds for the Rams and

1199
00:58:55,920 --> 00:58:58,000
Speaker 2: the Bills to be in the Super Bowl. But I'm

1200
00:58:58,040 --> 00:58:59,400
Speaker 2: with you, the Chiefs kind of burned a lot of

1201
00:58:59,440 --> 00:59:02,000
Speaker 2: my tickets, and just for straight up bets, I'm a

1202
00:59:02,000 --> 00:59:02,640
Speaker 2: big Rams guy.

1203
00:59:02,680 --> 00:59:03,480
Speaker 3: I got Rams.

1204
00:59:03,240 --> 00:59:05,840
Speaker 2: Basically twenty eight to one, twenty seven to one, they

1205
00:59:05,840 --> 00:59:08,439
Speaker 2: signed DeVante, got him again at twenty three to one,

1206
00:59:08,720 --> 00:59:11,200
Speaker 2: and you know, I only regret was I got scared

1207
00:59:11,240 --> 00:59:13,440
Speaker 2: off in the summer for that final month because the

1208
00:59:13,480 --> 00:59:16,400
Speaker 2: Stafford now brought right cost myself a lot of money.

1209
00:59:16,440 --> 00:59:18,960
Speaker 2: Because they're just they end up being probably the best

1210
00:59:18,960 --> 00:59:20,960
Speaker 2: team this season. I know the records will reflect that,

1211
00:59:21,080 --> 00:59:24,480
Speaker 2: but uh, you know football, the best team that always

1212
00:59:24,560 --> 00:59:25,520
Speaker 2: ends up with the best record.

1213
00:59:25,520 --> 00:59:26,200
Speaker 3: That's just how it is.

1214
00:59:26,240 --> 00:59:29,400
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm with you, Chet, It's I need some

1215
00:59:29,520 --> 00:59:31,400
Speaker 2: things that happen to get there. I'm not feeling too

1216
00:59:31,400 --> 00:59:34,200
Speaker 2: confident in those long shots, but that's that's why we

1217
00:59:34,240 --> 00:59:35,200
Speaker 2: play the future markets.

1218
00:59:35,240 --> 00:59:38,320
Speaker 1: It's just fun. I would say, I'm no joke. I

1219
00:59:38,360 --> 00:59:40,080
Speaker 1: am going to build a bit of a money line

1220
00:59:40,120 --> 00:59:45,720
Speaker 1: parlay on veteran quarterbacks versus quarterbacks who have never been

1221
00:59:45,760 --> 00:59:47,840
Speaker 1: in so I will be playing.

1222
00:59:48,400 --> 00:59:50,320
Speaker 3: I don't know other Thursday we'll do our money line parlay.

1223
00:59:50,960 --> 00:59:53,400
Speaker 1: Oh that's a good idea. That's a really good idea.

1224
00:59:54,440 --> 00:59:57,960
Speaker 1: All right. This has been sharper Square, part of the

1225
00:59:58,040 --> 01:00:02,760
Speaker 1: Volume podcast Network. We'll be back on Thursday with more

1226
01:00:02,840 --> 01:00:08,360
Speaker 1: details the money line parlays. Our brass balls will do

1227
01:00:08,520 --> 01:00:11,960
Speaker 1: more Sharp versus Square. Watch or listen on YouTube a

1228
01:00:12,040 --> 01:00:14,440
Speaker 1: sharp or square like the video. Subscribe to the channel,

1229
01:00:14,720 --> 01:00:17,160
Speaker 1: Download us on Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods.

1230
01:00:17,120 --> 01:00:19,960
Speaker 1: A rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever

1231
01:00:20,000 --> 01:00:24,160
Speaker 1: you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you.

1232
01:00:25,440 --> 01:00:26,760
Speaker 3: Fasten your seat belts.

1233
01:00:26,840 --> 01:00:28,000
Speaker 4: It's playoff time.