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Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you

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Speaker 1: five day returns quints dot com slash chuck. So I

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Speaker 1: wasn't going to have a guest but for the for

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Speaker 1: for this week, I promised you some what if episodes,

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Speaker 1: some mailbag episodes. We've already delivered one what if actually

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Speaker 1: two what IF's in one. But my next guest, who

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Speaker 1: have course is I believe we've we will crown him.

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Speaker 1: He's part of the five time toddcast club here just

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Speaker 1: like SNL hosts. It's none other than Jonathan Martin. J

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Speaker 1: mart somebody I have known worked with Friends with for

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Speaker 1: thirty plus years. He wrote one of my favorite He

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Speaker 1: wrote an homage to one of my favorite columns from

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Speaker 1: the eighties and nineties, the old Bill Sapphire predictions column.

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Speaker 2: He called it the office pool.

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Speaker 1: All things Bill Sapphire in the New Year used to

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Speaker 1: used to consume us. If I remember back in the

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Speaker 1: day we had had this column, then he would go

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Speaker 1: on Nightline and do that prediction panel with Copple. It

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Speaker 1: would always be Sapphire, sometimes modout right, sometimes Peggy Noonan,

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Speaker 1: you know, I but always Sapphire. And he always had

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Speaker 1: a lot of fun with this. So you wrote this

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Speaker 1: column and I thought, I know, Jay Martin's got thirty

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Speaker 1: minutes for me.

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Speaker 2: We've got to We've got to have absolutely, especially the

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Speaker 2: day after New Year's Day, which is a big day

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Speaker 2: in New Orleans. Uh yeah, for a lot of reasons.

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Speaker 1: So well, we are taping on the second that's going

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Speaker 1: to drop on the first sort of working Monday of

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Speaker 1: the year. But let's go through. Look, I've said this,

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Speaker 1: we all have crutches. Around the end of the year.

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Speaker 1: You have your best of lists two years a lose,

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Speaker 1: winners and losers, Right, I do what ifs like we

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Speaker 1: all have a thing you you, but it really is

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Speaker 1: the topics you sort of hit on sixteen, topics that

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Speaker 1: you know is going to get covered this year. You

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Speaker 1: have a little fun, obviously, but but I'm guessing there

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Speaker 1: were a few topics you hit on first and foremost

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Speaker 1: that you really wanted to make a point about, and

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Speaker 1: then there were others that you had to like, well,

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Speaker 1: I need more items in here.

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Speaker 2: So.

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Speaker 1: Right, we all get it, right, So give me your

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Speaker 1: of sixteen. What was the one you were like the

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Speaker 1: first couple that were like, this is my obsession and

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Speaker 1: why I wanted to crank out this column.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting. It's kinda like, you know, the hardest

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Speaker 2: writing sometimes is the shortest writing. And I could have

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Speaker 2: done twenty five pretty easily, right, it would have been

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Speaker 2: it would have been hard to done like just five.

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Speaker 2: I did sixteen because I felt like I had fifteen,

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Speaker 2: and then like, well it's twenty twenty six, and if

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Speaker 2: I deal sixteenth, I could have fun with a sports question.

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Speaker 2: So I tossed in a Laine Kiffin question there in

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Speaker 2: the end. Well, the ones that I think Chucker's screamingly

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Speaker 2: obvious are what is Trump got to name after himself next, right,

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Speaker 2: I mean this is less of presidency than it is

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Speaker 2: a victory lap of somebody who is. Presidence in public

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Speaker 2: life is entirely about validation and affirmation more than a

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Speaker 2: day's really any substantive accomplishment. It's about recognition, right, which

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Speaker 2: has been Trump's identity for fifty years as he wants

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Speaker 2: to be. He's got to say he's been consumed with

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Speaker 2: this arguably his entirety. Yeah. And it's never on the marriage,

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Speaker 2: it's never on subs it's just am I one of

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Speaker 2: life's winners? And so like. Of course he's spending his

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Speaker 2: days like building homage to himself and like quite literally

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Speaker 2: monuments to himself and renaming everything he can after himself,

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Speaker 2: because that's the whole ballgame. Right.

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Speaker 1: What I find it weirdly impressive is that he picks

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Speaker 1: things to put his name on that. If you're a

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Speaker 1: Trump opponent and you obsess over too much in some ways,

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Speaker 1: you look like you're obsessed with the superficial right, the

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Speaker 1: Institute of Peace, the Kennedy Center, the ball right. It's

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Speaker 1: absurd that he's obsessed with this. And if you're a

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Speaker 1: Democratic member of Congress, you're an idiot. If you want

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Speaker 1: to line up oversight hearings about it too.

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Speaker 2: Right, right, because then you're dragged down to his well. Right.

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Speaker 2: I'm reminded of of last fall when he he got

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Speaker 2: up there on the campaign tron of Pennsylvania and was

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Speaker 2: talking about, you know, Arnold Palmer's endowment, and it was like,

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Speaker 2: you know, Democrats, like, how do you ignore it? But

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Speaker 2: at the same time, no.

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Speaker 1: It's it is, and and that that's weirdly his genius

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Speaker 1: and how he does this, which is why it ends

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Speaker 1: up happening like exactly, you're thinking, like the Institute of Peace,

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Speaker 1: like one of the cooler buildings that you come into DC.

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Speaker 1: Now it's it's sort of I've always I've been I've

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Speaker 1: always been impressed with the architecture of it, and i've

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Speaker 1: been you know, you know, it's like we cleaned up

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Speaker 1: that whole part of Constitution Avenue. And I don't even

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Speaker 1: think he knows why Congress endowed the building in the

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Speaker 1: first place.

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Speaker 2: Of course, not besides the point, totally beside the point.

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Speaker 1: So I just need it.

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Speaker 2: I did the Trump Uh, I just think I I'm

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Speaker 2: of the view that Trump should be covered with the

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Speaker 2: level of seriousness that he takes the job, right, and

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Speaker 2: he doesn't make the job very seriously, Like he can't

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Speaker 2: be bothered to do the basis about any policy issue.

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Speaker 2: Any foreign leader. He barely knows their names. He says

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Speaker 2: the same thing with every foreign leader. A great guy

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Speaker 2: doing a great job. We get along really, really well.

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Speaker 2: It's all interchangeable. He just wants to like do the

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Speaker 2: public facing aspects of the job to get him attention,

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Speaker 2: notoriety and affirmation. So like that's what he's about. Now.

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Speaker 2: That's not to say that there's other elements of his

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Speaker 2: presidency that are deadly serious, those carried about by carried

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Speaker 2: out by his lieutenants that dud demand intent scrutiny.

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Speaker 1: All right, so let's pick what's he gonna name after himself.

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Speaker 1: I'm impressed with the you know, cherry picking Dallas Airport.

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Speaker 1: There isn't a big constituency to protect Alan Dallas, right,

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Speaker 1: So I think I think if he really wants to,

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Speaker 1: it's this named after him. You know, it's the most

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Speaker 1: hated airport in the region.

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Speaker 2: And was going to say, who hates b W.

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Speaker 1: I Uh, it's equally as much because of the false

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Speaker 1: advertising of the W in it. It is not nowhere

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Speaker 1: near Washington. But that's my pet, peeve. But everybody hates Dollis.

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Speaker 1: Everybody hates Dollis. Okay, nay, truy, you want that on

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Speaker 1: your go ahead, buddy. It's kind of on the.

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Speaker 2: Back door troll, right, it's a back door roll. He is, like,

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Speaker 2: you know, those in the know would get that Trump

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Speaker 2: being named after Dollas actually is not omas right, right,

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Speaker 2: control right? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Is that your assumption or what?

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Speaker 2: What do you think he tries No, I think he'll

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Speaker 2: be tempted to do doll It would surprise me if

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Speaker 2: he tried to grab Dallas. But I think that the

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Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty eighth anniversary of the country and

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Speaker 2: the construction of the arc, the Trump that he's going

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Speaker 2: to build across Memorial Bridge between the Lincoln Memorial and

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Speaker 2: the Custosly Mansion, I think that temptation will lead him

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Speaker 2: to just make that that bridge, which nobody really knows

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Speaker 2: the name of that bridge, but it's a Memorial bridge.

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Speaker 2: Just call the Trump Bridge.

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Speaker 1: Interesting, you know, I want to you know, one of

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Speaker 1: the things about him that I think it's an un

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Speaker 1: This is an uncomfortable fact when I bring it up

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Speaker 1: to people, because they don't want to believe. They don't

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Speaker 1: want to believe. But do you know who Trump is

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Speaker 1: most like? I think of previous presidents, it really is

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Speaker 1: Teddy Roosevelt in in how he Teddy was obsessed with

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Speaker 1: his legacy. Teddy was constantly very comfortable with stuff being

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Speaker 1: named after him. I mean, my got he had his

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Speaker 1: picture etched. That was the only way Mount Rushmore happened.

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Speaker 1: You're like, wait a minute, Jefferson, Lincoln, Washington, and you right,

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Speaker 1: it's always been, you know, and like the logger, we've gone,

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Speaker 1: we've decided that Teddy legacy now sort of lives it.

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Speaker 1: But you're like, we probably have the wrong Roosevelt on

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Speaker 1: the Mount Rushmore.

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Speaker 2: Oh, not even close, right, right? And yet.

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Speaker 1: You know, I I when I bring up how actually

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Speaker 1: narcissistic Teddy was and how Trump is really most emblematic

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Speaker 1: to him, it makes people uncomfortable because we want to

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Speaker 1: like Teddy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and because Roosevelt is somehow part of the American spirit, Bully,

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Speaker 2: you know, He's a great Eastern who went west.

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Speaker 1: And isn't Trump very much a part of the American

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Speaker 1: spirit that not everybody loves?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I've always felt that Trump is less

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Speaker 2: of a political archetype and more of a a pop

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Speaker 2: culture archetype. P. T.

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Speaker 1: Barnum that he's a modern he's Barnum.

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Speaker 2: He's Buffalo Bill, but he's he's the traveling salesman coming

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Speaker 2: through town on the medicine wagon. It's always been a

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Speaker 2: part of American culture.

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Speaker 1: It was just we've always had with Charles Lindberg, we

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Speaker 1: can keep going, and just none of them ever became president.

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Speaker 2: He's the first one that ever became. We always had

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Speaker 2: a huckster element that people kind of like in our

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Speaker 2: pop culture, right, you know what people is saying about

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Speaker 2: sucker is born every minute. I mean, yeah, this is

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Speaker 2: an old story in American life that Trump has updated

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Speaker 2: for the TV age and now the digital age, but

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Speaker 2: it's not new the Trump. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I think the thing that people like you and I

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Speaker 1: got wrong about him is I think we thought the

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Speaker 1: country wasn't susceptible to a huckster, like that's right, And

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Speaker 1: it turns out yeah, we are, you know right, It

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Speaker 1: turns out we weren't.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we thought that there was a salt water freshwater

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Speaker 2: division between our politics and our pop culture, and it

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Speaker 2: turns out it was bracktish, right.

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Speaker 1: One of your other questions you put out their predictions, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: Is a Supreme Court seat opening. I fully believe this too.

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Speaker 1: You know, if you if you're looking for political pressure

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Speaker 1: points to try to goose Republican turnout, and you look

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Speaker 1: at what happened in ninety eight I mean in eighteen,

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Speaker 1: excuse me, I mean, you know, without the Kavanaugh nomination,

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Speaker 1: maybe Democrats hang on to two Senate seats. You know,

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Speaker 1: maybe mccasko finds a way to win, like she will say,

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Speaker 1: the Kavanaugh Uh fighting that happened essentially four weeks before

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Speaker 1: election day galvanized the right and really fired them up.

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Speaker 1: If I were sitting in the white West wing looking

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Speaker 1: to goose Republican turnout for the midterms, a Supreme Court

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Speaker 1: fight this summer, you know, would be would would be

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Speaker 1: what something I would order up after trying the redistricting gambit,

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Speaker 1: which looks like it's going to end up if Virginia

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Speaker 1: goes through with what they do, he can end up

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Speaker 1: actually a net negative for Republicans. But uh so, which

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Speaker 1: one of them goes? Does he bully Alito out or

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Speaker 1: is it Thomas?

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Speaker 2: It feels like Alito is the more likely one, you know,

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Speaker 2: that's what. But I've kind of heard through the grave. Ye.

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Speaker 1: And also he's got a clerk he's here. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you could tell the whole flag thing. He doesn't love

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Speaker 1: being up. Like it's clear that he and his wife

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Speaker 1: aren't on the same page on this, like one wants

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Speaker 1: to be a public figure whatever it is. They're just

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Speaker 1: sort of and he is of the age of like,

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Speaker 1: you know, but I keep hearing Thomas is done and

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Speaker 1: ready to get in the RV and you know, maybe

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Speaker 1: go go to Georgia bulldog games.

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Speaker 2: It's clearly one of those two. I think it's just

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Speaker 2: a matter of which one it is. And especially if

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Speaker 2: Trump's numbers by let's say the first of March, if

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Speaker 2: Trump's approval is down thirty one thirty two percent nationally, boy,

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Speaker 2: I think the pressure is going to be really intense

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Speaker 2: on one or both of them.

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Speaker 1: Because if you don't get up, then you're risking a

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Speaker 1: bit ter RBG right, right with RBG six Yeah, yeah, no,

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Speaker 1: I'm I am. I'm one of those who believes that

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Speaker 1: Democratic chances of winning the Senate are going to seem

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Speaker 1: a lot more realistic come October of the calendar year.

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Speaker 1: It's so much like two thousand and six, and that's

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Speaker 1: why I completely agree. I think, you know, late developing races.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, we're going to I don't know if it's Mississippi, Kansas,

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Speaker 1: or Iowa maybe you know, maybe all of them, right,

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Speaker 1: but we're gonna see We're going to see more competitive

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Speaker 1: races pop up in some places we haven't been thinking

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Speaker 1: about or maybe you and I have been thinking about

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Speaker 1: them but haven't percolated just yet.

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Speaker 2: This is notable, hasn't gotten a ton of attention. But

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Speaker 2: in Nebraska, the same Indie Dan Osborne who ria am

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Speaker 2: against dem Fisher and lost, you know, ran a solid campaign,

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Speaker 2: is running this time with the benefit of having the

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Speaker 2: Democratic Party of Nebraska's TACIT support. And they ain't had

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Speaker 2: it the last I'd argue, you had it the last time.

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Speaker 2: But they're not going to run somebody on the ballot.

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Speaker 2: They didn't run somebody in the last time. That's what

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Speaker 2: they did. I thought they felt the same. But like

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Speaker 2: even even a sort of like Joe six Pack running

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Speaker 2: with the D label is not going to happen, which

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Speaker 2: could drain eight percent of the vote, is what I'm saying.

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Speaker 1: You know, true, But I don't know if you hear

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Speaker 1: like me, you will watch any game that's on TV.

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Speaker 1: And I watched the Nebraska Utah game, and you know what,

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Speaker 1: I saw a lot of I saw a lot of

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Speaker 1: Pete Ricketts advertising, just very positive ads, just sort of like, hey,

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Speaker 1: I'm doing what deb Fisher never did, which remind people

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Speaker 1: that I'm your United States senator.

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Speaker 2: He's got money to do.

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Speaker 1: Jeb Fisher didn't spend. I am a I am a

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Speaker 1: skeptic of this race because it's hard to do this.

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Speaker 1: It's hard to be an insurgent twice.

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Speaker 2: It is. It's also a little harder I think for

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Speaker 2: a Democrat to win a Trump cycle. What Trump's on

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Speaker 2: top of the ticket, you know, true, and.

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Speaker 1: This time he won't be I hear.

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Speaker 2: You know. It's funny.

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Speaker 1: Deb Fisher was the more vulnerable, you know, if you

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Speaker 1: think about it like antelopes, like right, you know when

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Speaker 1: the dinosaurs or the or the cheetahs are going to

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Speaker 1: take the weakest, you know, the slowest antelope in the herd. Right,

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Speaker 1: Fisher slower than Rickets because of the mound.

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Speaker 2: Right, But yeah, Osborne could could lose by four and

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Speaker 2: Jasmincrockett could lose by seven. So there you go. Chuck,

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Speaker 2: I gotta get into the jasmine crowd. By the way,

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Speaker 2: speaking of Trump not being on top of the ticket,

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Speaker 2: and I think that that can't be over emphasized enough

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Speaker 2: in these Senate races right where Kenadates have relied on

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Speaker 2: that looks Susan Collins wins in twenty twenty in a

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Speaker 2: Trump in a Trump cycle. Even though Trump loses nationally

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Speaker 2: and loses Maine, He's Trump still wins the second congressional

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Speaker 2: district and drives out a lot of voters in Maine

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Speaker 2: that voted for Collins. Are those folks coming out this time?

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Speaker 2: I don't know, you know, Chuck, North Carolina? You know

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Speaker 2: Trump drives rural turnout, right, Are those folks that come

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Speaker 2: out from Michael Wantley in a midterm cycle in North Carolina?

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Speaker 2: I don't look.

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Speaker 1: I I'm skeptical of Ashley Moody in Florida. The Democrats

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Speaker 1: syst haven't found in challenge, right, you know, I'm skeptical

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Speaker 1: of Sydney Hyde Smith and Mississippi. Yeah, you know, there

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Speaker 1: are a lot of these weaker Look I think, by

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Speaker 1: the way, I'm surprised you didn't do this one. So

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Speaker 1: I think the Cynthia Lummus retirement is intriguing in which

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Speaker 1: Trump adjacent carpetbagger is going to float running in that race.

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Speaker 1: And you know, one of my favorite rumors that I

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Speaker 1: had that I had like it was like you know

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Speaker 1: the chatter, yet you trust you know the chatter that

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Speaker 1: you trust that Junior was very interested in a Wyoming center.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I heard that last year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And suddenly when that Lumbus retirement happened, I went up,

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Speaker 1: this is how it would happen. And given how easily

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Speaker 1: the Trump Trump folks took over the Wyoming Republican Party,

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Speaker 1: I mean, just as Liz Cheney, I wouldn't.

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Speaker 2: Rule it out.

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Speaker 1: And then suddenly you have Vance Junior UH ticket ready

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Speaker 1: to go. I don't think that's done yet.

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Speaker 2: I heard that chatter the early part of twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 2: like January, February twenty five, I guess a year ago.

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Speaker 2: Now got done flies and I checked it out and

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Speaker 2: nobody out there had had heard of it. But Hageman

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Speaker 2: jumped in immediately got drums endorsement. That feels like a

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Speaker 2: done deal. I did hear for the junkies will love

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Speaker 2: this Foster Freeze the lake yas owner late he just

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Speaker 2: passed away right this year, a year or two ago.

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Speaker 2: His son apparently still lives around Jackson Hole. I think

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Speaker 2: his son's sniffing it either well, it would be now

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Speaker 2: the government Jackson whole carpetbagers have always, you know, always

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Speaker 2: there's got to be one of that.

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Speaker 1: There's got to be Sometimes you get fully rejected, right

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Speaker 1: and sometimes Look, Liz Cheney wanted to come in early.

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Speaker 1: Remember she wanted to be a senator first and was

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Speaker 1: sort of ready to bully out Mike Enzie, and that

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Speaker 1: didn't work.

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Speaker 2: It was one of the most fun stories I wrote

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Speaker 2: for The Times in my ten years. There was in

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Speaker 2: the summer of twenty thirteen. I spent a day with

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Speaker 2: the late Mike Enzi. God loved me. Was a sweet

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Speaker 2: mam uh. He was doing a town hall tour imagine

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Speaker 2: that town hall tour by himself down the eastern spine

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Speaker 2: of Wyoming. I followed them all the day to these

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Speaker 2: small little towns, and I ended the day in a

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Speaker 2: town called Lusk, Wyoming. Great date, Lione, And after the

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Speaker 2: town hall ended, he finally said, I got some time

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Speaker 2: for you, and I'll come over and pull up a chair.

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Speaker 2: It couldn't have been nicer, and I said, Senator, I

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Speaker 2: I hears some chatter that Liz Cheney's thinking about coming

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Speaker 2: home to primary you. And he said, oh, that's so interesting.

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Speaker 2: You know, she actually just called me last week about that,

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Speaker 2: and my face just you know what, White, It's like

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Speaker 2: one of those moments were like you look down at

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Speaker 2: your camp record, like make sure it's on. Oh she did,

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Speaker 2: Senator tell me about that. He totally dropped the dime

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Speaker 2: on her and basically flushed her out before she wanted

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Speaker 2: to announce her challenge to Enzi. But you're right that

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of for the you know, the money. Now,

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Speaker 2: the changes are different because obviously Dick and Lynn grew

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Speaker 2: up in Casper, but there's always that element in especially

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Speaker 2: around Jackson Hole, of folks that have money who want

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Speaker 2: to run. I was joking with a friend of mine,

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Speaker 2: I said, I said, I think Teton Village needs a

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Speaker 2: voice in Washington, and my friends the Titon Village is

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Speaker 2: doing just fine and Washington trust me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I was just gonna say, I think they having

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Speaker 1: Going back to Supreme Court, I love your I love

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Speaker 1: your four dominees, puro Oldman, Alien Cannon, Ted Cruz. So

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Speaker 1: this the machiavellian in me says it'll be Ted Cruz

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Speaker 1: to eliminate him as a dvance primary opponent.

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Speaker 2: Well, I was gonna say, you know, that'd be the

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Speaker 2: vance preference exactly to get Cruz Cruise out of the

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Speaker 2: Senate onto the Court. I think Trump is so taken

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Speaker 2: with these traditional credentials of Harvard clerkships, you know, federalist society,

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Speaker 2: this and that, and this young fellow not young but

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Speaker 2: he's forty seven. Uh, Andrew Oldham is is on a

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Speaker 2: circuit now down in Austin, Texas, play.

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Speaker 1: In the game, right, and he's he was he was

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Speaker 1: an Alito.

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Speaker 2: Clerk, Chuck Sam with a Cavanaugh was a clerk for

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Speaker 2: oh God, Stanford, Tony Kennedy. You know, I just think

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Speaker 2: that this makes the most sense. But you're right, Cruise

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Speaker 2: would be the play if it was Vansa's call. Come

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Speaker 2: back to the actually Moody race. By the way, but

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Speaker 2: you mentioned actually movie. There are a couple of people

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Speaker 2: I hear.

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Speaker 1: She's not crazy about the job, by the way. She

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Speaker 1: doesn't love it, sort of got pushed it, talked into it.

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Speaker 1: I've heard, like I said, I I've just heard some

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Speaker 1: interesting chatter that she may not be long for that

431
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:47,159
Speaker 1: seat even if she wins the like she may finish

432
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:48,960
Speaker 1: the term but not seek the full six.

433
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 2: I think one of the most under reported storylines of

434
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 2: the mid term cycle are the two appointees who are

435
00:23:56,400 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 2: basically anonymous in DC and don't get any tension in

436
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:01,399
Speaker 2: the national press.

437
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 1: John Hewn and Houstead in Ohio, right.

438
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:06,920
Speaker 2: And actually Moody in Florida. Here are these two states

439
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,360
Speaker 2: that you know in this century, were like the pre

440
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 2: eminent battleground states. They're red tilted. Now, I get that,

441
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 2: but you have two appointees with not much of profile

442
00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 2: in DC. Now, Houston has more a profile back home

443
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 2: in Ohio because he was in politics so long. But

444
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,440
Speaker 2: I just think that there's so much ink spilled shock

445
00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:27,879
Speaker 2: on the Texas Senate race. And then I can just

446
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 2: rank thembout this for an hour.

447
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:34,159
Speaker 1: I know the politic you know, Texas senator. Remember remember

448
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 1: my rants of two thousand about the damn New York

449
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,959
Speaker 1: Senate race, and we kept covering Clinton Lazio as if

450
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 1: it was competitive. And it's like, this race is not competitive,

451
00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:49,719
Speaker 1: and the only thing national reporters wanted to cover in

452
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 1: the Senate was the Hillary Clinton Center ration.

453
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 2: You're like, guys, that's not competitive. Go see the Rod

454
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:55,160
Speaker 2: Grahams and stop.

455
00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:58,920
Speaker 1: Let's go to two. Let's that was a real race,

456
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 1: Mark Dayton and Rod Grahams.

457
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:04,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I spent Abrahim w stabanow Man.

458
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 1: Now, but I would argue this Ken Paxton and Jasmine

459
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 1: Crocketts the Senate race our politics deserves, yes, and in

460
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 1: some ways I'd like it, you know, let's have it out.

461
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 1: And I don't know who would win that. I really

462
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:26,160
Speaker 1: don't you know. I think you would assume that it's

463
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,879
Speaker 1: Texas and that an African American woman's kind of a

464
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 1: harder time winning than a white male. But Paxton is

465
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 1: so corrupt, is so corrupted an anti woman that I

466
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 1: don't rule anything out.

467
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:43,920
Speaker 2: What percent of like Democratic donors activists could even tell

468
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:47,920
Speaker 2: you the name of the incumbent senator in Ohio, where

469
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,359
Speaker 2: they've got a much better shot I would argue to

470
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 2: win a race than in Texas. It's incredible, Like you

471
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,960
Speaker 2: have Sharon Brown running I state, think he's won elections

472
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 2: in for half century against an appointee, and it gets

473
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 2: next to no buzz anyways, as does my ram hell.

474
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 2: I would say even Roy Cooper, the former tutor and

475
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:08,120
Speaker 2: governor of North Carolina, that race gets oddly little attention.

476
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 2: I think it's the political hobbyist culture that's taken over

477
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:16,359
Speaker 2: the internet, right, so everything is about Platiner in Maine,

478
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 2: or now it's Tall Rico and Crockett in Texas. Like

479
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 2: the less sexy races, whether it's Houston and Ohio against

480
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 2: Brown or uh Cooper Carolina.

481
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 1: Don't you think it's the obsession of trying to find

482
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 1: like these. You know, you're like, well, we missed keep Boodhages,

483
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,359
Speaker 1: we missed Ted Cruz, right, and they both were the

484
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 1: next avatar? Yeah, who's the next you know, one of those?

485
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 1: And everybody's constantly looking for that, right, is it?

486
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:48,160
Speaker 2: Graham Platner, right, is exactly? Is it? Also there's there's

487
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:52,160
Speaker 2: the forever Hillary Bernie proxy war too, right, which will

488
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,439
Speaker 2: never never end, right, And so that's part of.

489
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:59,399
Speaker 1: Well now it really is just Bernie's proxy war with everybody.

490
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,919
Speaker 2: Right, He's still rocking that same jacket and gloves.

491
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:04,920
Speaker 1: I saw, you know, you know, I'll tell you that,

492
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:07,920
Speaker 1: you know, the campaign we never had. And I thought about, Look,

493
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:10,919
Speaker 1: I went through my the what if that I dropped

494
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 1: earlier this week was what if I did it? I

495
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 1: did it at two parter. It was essentially what if

496
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 1: Trump had either conceded normally in twenty twenty or what

497
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 1: if Trump had won in twenty twenty?

498
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, And.

499
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:30,640
Speaker 1: I really was, you know, when I when I went

500
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 1: through the exercise, what the most fascinating thing was actually

501
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:39,680
Speaker 1: realizing how much January sixth really changed Biden and Ron

502
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 1: Klaine and how they conducted that presidency, you know, and

503
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,919
Speaker 1: how much. It changed everything because there's not a democratic Senate.

504
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 1: If there's no if if Trump doesn't do what he does,

505
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:51,959
Speaker 1: like I'm convinced that Georgia goes at least one and

506
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 1: one doesn't go both in directions Democrats And what is

507
00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:58,879
Speaker 1: the Joe Biden agenda with a Republican Senate? Right, it

508
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:05,360
Speaker 1: doesn't completely different presidency and who you knowing deals?

509
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 2: Right McConnell and Biden are doing deals. There are Democrats

510
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 2: will privately tell you they regret. The day January fifth,

511
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 2: twenty January fenty was a huge It bleated that ruined.

512
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:20,439
Speaker 2: Biden didn't run to be that president. He ran to

513
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:24,439
Speaker 2: be the transformational let's settle down, and in some ways

514
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,359
Speaker 2: the only way that could be successful is if you

515
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 2: had divided government, and not having divide a government almost

516
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:34,720
Speaker 2: forced them to, well, we better try to go big now,

517
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 2: because how often do you get this? You know? And

518
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 2: by the way, nobody will be.

519
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 3: More about this than one term due to Biden's collapsing

520
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 3: numbers in the fall of twenty twenty one, because.

521
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 2: Of in part we Afghanistan in part, but also because

522
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 2: of Biden's vaulting ambitions, and by the way, the day

523
00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:58,719
Speaker 2: after that twenty twenty one election, I had an up

524
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 2: and coming Democrat. Tell me, mister president Nobody, I'd like

525
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 2: you to be Franklin Roosevelt. We wanted to make where

526
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 2: is that up becoming democrats. Democrat's name was albig Els

527
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 2: Bamberger Governor. I lacked Abigail's Bamberger.

528
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, she's she's almost governor. We're only a few days

529
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 1: away on that one. A few other things from your

530
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 1: prediction column, Uh, the next place, what's that? The next

531
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 1: place he's ordering airstrikes, and your choices of Venezuela ran

532
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 1: again Russia, and then you have some fun with Canada.

533
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 1: But I want to single out Iran. And I'm going

534
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 1: to have a guest on this in a in about

535
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 1: ten days. But I think when when I think about

536
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 1: the stories that I'm trying to prepare for that not

537
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,080
Speaker 1: a lot of people are focused on, I think that

538
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:47,320
Speaker 1: I think the regime is going to collapse in Iran.

539
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 1: It's I was in Abu Dhabi a couple of weeks

540
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 1: ago at a journalism conference.

541
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 2: There.

542
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 1: People that are going in and out of of Tehran

543
00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 1: are just it's And you know, Abu Dhabi has a

544
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:03,200
Speaker 1: huge rainy and diaspora. It is all the buzz that

545
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 1: the regimes days are numbered now, you know. Look, it's

546
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 1: like with a sod in Syria. You knew it was

547
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:13,959
Speaker 1: going to happen. You just is it today? Is it

548
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 1: next year? Is it five years? But it was gonna

549
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 1: there was no way this was sustainable. And you know

550
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 1: the lack of running water in Tehran is going to

551
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 1: blow this regime up? Is it in twenty six? And

552
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 1: what does Trump do? Who will probably want a little

553
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 1: bit of credit when it happens on his watch.

554
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 2: Right, he'll probably name the airport in Toronto for himself. Exactly. No, Yeah, Look,

555
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 2: presidencies are always about the unexpected events, right, and that's

556
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 2: the maximum our times. And I mean nobody would have

557
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 2: guessed that, like the second Trump residency could be defined

558
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:52,680
Speaker 2: by right though the fall of the Aatola but and

559
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 2: the regime that has governed her on for the last

560
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 2: forty five years, but totally plausible.

561
00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 1: Oh, Chris, you want to talk about reshaping the Middle East?

562
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 1: You have a we have a demo semi democratic regime

563
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 1: in Iran. I mean, it's going to be fascinating, it's

564
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 1: you know it, We really could finally resolve World War One.

565
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, mhm. And and also I mean it takes a

566
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 2: massive sponsor of terrorism, you know, off the map really does, uh.

567
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 2: And also undermines the broader access between a lot of

568
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 2: these countries who are obviously against the West, Russia and.

569
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 1: The irony is that the only person staying in the

570
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 1: way for a stable Biddlelaet might be be being at

571
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 1: Yahoo right after that point, that he could be seen

572
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 1: as the most unstable force, not not his his government,

573
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 1: not the country, but his government. And also it also

574
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 1: seems unsettled. He does seem a little unsettled about all this. Suddenly, Oh,

575
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 1: Trump's gonna cut deals with Syria now, and Trump's gonna

576
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 1: cut deals all over the like, and you know he'll

577
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 1: do it with Iran if there's a new regime in Iran,

578
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 1: look how openly and of course he would love.

579
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 2: A lot of money. It also makes you wonder how

580
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 2: the Saladies react. But you know, if they're you know,

581
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 2: if if the major Shei country in the region suddenly

582
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 2: has a vacuum, what does MBS do, uh? And how

583
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 2: does he operate?

584
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 1: And I think U A out maneuvers them. And in Iran,

585
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 1: part of it is just because they, like I said,

586
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 1: there's a big Iranian diaspora, and yeah, yeah, with money.

587
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 2: It's fascinating.

588
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:38,720
Speaker 1: No, it is, and it's going to be. Look do

589
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 1: I think Venezuela. Look, I think Venezuela could become a

590
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 1: real political problem for Trump because this is the pottery

591
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 1: barn rule.

592
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:46,959
Speaker 2: Right.

593
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 1: If we're going to keep bombing on land, yes, and

594
00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 1: we succeed, are we walking away from rebuilding Caracas?

595
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 2: I don't think so. Also, Uh, Steven Miller, pick up

596
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 2: your phone, because if you create some kind of regime

597
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 2: change in Venezuela and you've got a flight of Venezuelans,

598
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 2: you know, into the US. Well, the history of countries

599
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 2: that we meddle him is that a lot of folks

600
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 2: from those countries come to our country. Right, So, speaking

601
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 2: of great historical ironies, the the market Rubio of Venezuela

602
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 2: policy could be the Steven Miller nightmare. Right.

603
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 1: Well, I've often wondered, I feel like Rubio, Look, we

604
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 1: know Rubios the architect of all this, right, Yeah, And

605
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 1: I've often thought that Rubio, I hope he realizes that

606
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 1: the second things go wrong, he's the fall guy, right, Like,

607
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 1: I don't know when Rubio's time with Trump comes to

608
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 1: an end, but I think I know what it's over.

609
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 1: And at some point when Trump has to blame somebody

610
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 1: else for a foreign policy adventure, it ain't going to

611
00:33:57,600 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 1: be him. It's going to be his secretary State.

612
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 2: And this is why, by the way, Chuck a different prediction,

613
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 2: but for the same principle that you just outline, I

614
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 2: think Cash Battel is going to be a fall guy

615
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty six too, because whenever there's some kind

616
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:15,279
Speaker 2: of incident or a manhunt that goes awry, or some

617
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:18,359
Speaker 2: big flap and embarrassment in which, you know, so there's

618
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 2: a tragedy that happens, somebody's taken the fall for that,

619
00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 2: and it's not going to be somebody in the White House,

620
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:24,440
Speaker 2: you know, I don't.

621
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:27,200
Speaker 1: I get the sense that Cash Hotel doesn't have as

622
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 1: many supporters in the West wing as perhaps he did

623
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 1: around in Trump's inner circle in twenty two and twenty

624
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 1: three that he does in the current West.

625
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 2: Clearly, and by the way, one of the big storylines

626
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:42,440
Speaker 2: of the second Trump term is the leaks are still coming,

627
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 2: but they're coming more about the cabinet than they are

628
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 2: the principal himself. The first term, the leaks were about

629
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:51,879
Speaker 2: Trump himself and Trump's behavior in the West Wing sort

630
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 2: of well, because you had a mix of establishmentarians in

631
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 2: the West Wing who are at the guest. Yeah, the

632
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 2: leaks this time are about the cabinet because it's between

633
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 2: cabinet folks. It's between West Wing staff and cabinet folks.

634
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,839
Speaker 2: So there's this idea of like, oh, there's no more

635
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 2: leaks this time. There's plenty of leaks. It's just it's

636
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:14,880
Speaker 2: about the cabinet and the staff, not Trump. All right,

637
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 2: let me give you.

638
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 1: I'm going to give you Christy Nome, Cash, Betel Pete

639
00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 1: Haigset who's the least likely to finish the year calendar year?

640
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 2: And I think Pel, yeah, Cash, and I think no,

641
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:29,440
Speaker 2: I would put no second yeah, and also Chuck. I

642
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 2: think for a similar reason. I hate to say this,

643
00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 2: but look it, we're just a vulnerable you know, you know,

644
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 2: in this country, in the West broadly, and if there

645
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 2: is God forbid, some kind of a tragedy, you know

646
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 2: they're gonna get get homeland security.

647
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 1: It took their eye off the ball or yeah, you

648
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 1: could picture that storyline right totally. I won't ask you

649
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 1: a question though about Florida.

650
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, it's actually kind of a fun story

651
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:54,839
Speaker 2: the two traditional Maybe I should write this the two

652
00:35:55,040 --> 00:36:00,319
Speaker 2: traditional battleground states of the odds Florida and Ohio. Yeah,

653
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 2: they used to have football programs too. I think more

654
00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 2: on that leader.

655
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 1: But Florida and Ohio, well, the rightful order has been

656
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 1: is being restored with the other state of Miami on tap.

657
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:15,759
Speaker 2: But anyway, it's but Florida and Ohio right totally undercovered.

658
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 2: I think in twenty twenty six, talk to me about Florida,

659
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:22,880
Speaker 2: your your home state, which is the more leftic to flip?

660
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 2: If the dams were to strike gold and win in

661
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 2: twenty six and Florida is a governor senate.

662
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:30,880
Speaker 1: Oh, it's one hundred percent gov because of the financial

663
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 1: if the look I think the state is. I think

664
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:43,080
Speaker 1: senate races are harder to win in Florida now for

665
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 1: Democrats than governors races. Right, you're going to get to

666
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:47,840
Speaker 1: that point, we're going to move, We're going to shift

667
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 1: towards the sort of in Kansas. Right, I don't know

668
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:55,239
Speaker 1: if Democrats were still probably I think by the by

669
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 1: twenty thirty six, they'll be a Democratic senator in Kansas.

670
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:01,799
Speaker 1: I do I think in the next ten years we're

671
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 1: getting there. It's shifting. It has all the elements. You know,

672
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 1: you've got three suburban areas. That's you know, when you

673
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:12,160
Speaker 1: look at how red states become purple states, Kansas looks

674
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 1: very similar to what we've seen in Georgia, what we've

675
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 1: seen in Aunt. You're seeing Colorado. So I buy it, right,

676
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:23,920
Speaker 1: I sort of buy it that it's coming. But in Florida,

677
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 1: I do think the Jersey matters a lot more in

678
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:28,960
Speaker 1: Senate races, right, you're like, Okay, who who's going to

679
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:32,239
Speaker 1: be representing us in Washington. But you know, you've got

680
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 1: a property tax problem in the state. You've got high

681
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:38,080
Speaker 1: electricity bills in the state. You've got all these sort

682
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 1: of issues that really are state driven, less less so

683
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 1: than the fed fed driven. DeSantis isn't popular. He's not

684
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 1: like he's not you know, in his work. He's probably

685
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 1: more popular than Trump, right because right now Trump's got

686
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 1: the economy sort of really dragging him.

687
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:54,080
Speaker 2: Down a little bit.

688
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:57,640
Speaker 1: But DeSantis doesn't have many friends in Tallahassee these days,

689
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:05,120
Speaker 1: and primary could get a messy. I I and you know,

690
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 1: in theory, Democrats actually have two viable candidates in Jerry

691
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:16,279
Speaker 1: Demings and David Jolly, but it is silly that they're

692
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 1: primary in each other. One ought to be running in

693
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:21,120
Speaker 1: the Senate race. Right here we go again, right, one

694
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 1: of them ought to be running in the center race

695
00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:27,520
Speaker 1: because they could use a better ticket. Okay, But I

696
00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 1: do think if you're saying if the bottom falls out

697
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:33,480
Speaker 1: for the right, what would fall first? Look, I think

698
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 1: that I think Donalds is a terrible first name. It's congressman,

699
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:40,960
Speaker 1: and I think that's going to be a tough you know. Now,

700
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:43,239
Speaker 1: I think David Jolly is a terrible first name. It's

701
00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:47,719
Speaker 1: former congressman and former lobbyists. Like in a weird way, Demings,

702
00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:52,160
Speaker 1: the Donald's is intriguing to me because he gets to

703
00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:55,880
Speaker 1: be a mayor, a former mayor versus a former congressman.

704
00:38:56,080 --> 00:39:00,440
Speaker 1: I just look, there's a huge financial disparity. So I'm

705
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 1: not gonna I don't want people to think, hey, Chuck

706
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 1: Todd says the Florida governor's.

707
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:05,800
Speaker 2: Race is competitive. It's not competitive yet.

708
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:08,040
Speaker 1: It may not get there. But if you're asking me,

709
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:12,319
Speaker 1: I would, I would. I would have an easier time

710
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:16,720
Speaker 1: concocting a campaign against thirty years of Republican rule against

711
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 1: you know what I mean, Like, are you really frustrated

712
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:22,239
Speaker 1: by the rising cost of living in Florida? Well, you

713
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:25,360
Speaker 1: know who's not fixed property taxes, who's not fixed insurance?

714
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 2: Who's not? Right?

715
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 1: Like, it's an easier campaign to be very similar to

716
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 1: what Nancy excuse me, Kathleen Sibilius and then Laura Kelly

717
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:36,760
Speaker 1: essentially successfully pulled off in Kansas.

718
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:41,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, right, yeah, I might be my guess the.

719
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:46,880
Speaker 1: Now, I'll give you a one wild card, yep, Okay,

720
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:49,440
Speaker 1: I do think DeSantis is going to try to do

721
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:55,160
Speaker 1: redistricting in Florida. The seat they may target is Jared Moskowitz,

722
00:39:57,200 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 1: one of the seats they may target. And he said

723
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 1: he's said to me, I mean he's he's on the

724
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 1: record of this. He goes, if they come after me,

725
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:04,800
Speaker 1: then I may run for Senate.

726
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:06,040
Speaker 2: And he could be a.

727
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:08,360
Speaker 1: Pretty good Senate he could. He could raise a decent

728
00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:11,239
Speaker 1: chunk of money. He would be the pro Israel Democratic

729
00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 1: Senate candidate in Florida. Right, you couldn't ledge him out

730
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:17,759
Speaker 1: on that one issue, which is very meaningful in South Florida,

731
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:24,480
Speaker 1: And uh, you know I wouldn't. I'm skeptical that I'm

732
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:29,400
Speaker 1: skeptical he could win votes north of Okalla, but you know, uh,

733
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:30,799
Speaker 1: he certainly could make it an.

734
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:34,799
Speaker 2: Interesting That's fascinating, that's fascinating. But coming back to our

735
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 2: two thousand and six scenario, Yeah, we have to we

736
00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:39,719
Speaker 2: have to think about a world in which after Labor Day,

737
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:43,640
Speaker 2: Trump's at thirty percent approval and the world looks different. Now,

738
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 2: let's go ahead.

739
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:46,799
Speaker 1: No, I look, I agree. It's why I'm keeping an

740
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 1: eye on. You know, I don't even completely right off

741
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:55,720
Speaker 1: the independent candidacies, the sort of the the the Osborne

742
00:40:55,840 --> 00:41:01,840
Speaker 1: like guys at South Dakota. Yeah, Missipi Andippian in in Idaho,

743
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 1: although Idaho feels like a real stretch. This was my

744
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:14,719
Speaker 1: favorite one that you did because I feel like you

745
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:17,440
Speaker 1: had a hidden agenda in this one, mister Martin. So

746
00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:20,080
Speaker 1: I'm going to read this one which twenty twenty eight

747
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:23,720
Speaker 1: Democratic presidential hopeful will unwittingly hurt their candidacy by writing

748
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:26,400
Speaker 1: a book. And what I found interesting is you didn't

749
00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 1: just list names. You had a very specific assumption that

750
00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 1: you made that My guess is you already know this

751
00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:37,359
Speaker 1: is making the round. So with Newsome, it is by

752
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:40,560
Speaker 1: revealing he's still doing self discovery in his late fifties.

753
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 1: Shapiro by making his origin story a tragedy and that

754
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 1: it may come across a little too glib over time,

755
00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 1: it won't wear well. Harris confusing her book to her.

756
00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 1: I completely agree with you on the Harris thing. I

757
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:56,480
Speaker 1: think I think she's confusing interest in her book and

758
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:59,400
Speaker 1: the book to her into interest in her candidacy. And

759
00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:04,759
Speaker 1: then Bootage, you know, Botag, It to me is the

760
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 1: the Bruce Willis sixth sense candidate. Everybody knows he has

761
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:12,360
Speaker 1: no chance except him, and it's because you know, he

762
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:17,000
Speaker 1: became and the irony is he if Biden, if if

763
00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:19,719
Speaker 1: there's no COVID, he was the nominee in twenty I'm

764
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 1: like eighty percent convinced of that.

765
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:25,320
Speaker 2: But I do think Bootage has never got a path,

766
00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:30,800
Speaker 2: No Chuck, forget COVID for a minute. Let's start with Iowa.

767
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:35,560
Speaker 2: If the Iowa Democrats get their account locked up, right, he.

768
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:38,520
Speaker 1: Probably won't, but I still think, but let's let's play

769
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:38,960
Speaker 1: it out.

770
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:41,200
Speaker 2: The way it will wins Iowa, he gets a clean

771
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:42,319
Speaker 2: balance in new Hamshter, he wins in.

772
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 1: Hampshire, you know, right, But even still it's a split decision,

773
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:51,280
Speaker 1: and it's Bernie versus Pete and and there's no Biden

774
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 1: in this scenario. Right with with COVID, COVID made it

775
00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 1: easier for everybody to say, off, screw it, We'll just

776
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:02,280
Speaker 1: rally around the old guy. But without that, without COVID,

777
00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:05,359
Speaker 1: I think it's Bernie and Bootage. And I do think

778
00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:09,839
Speaker 1: Boothajige wins simply out of absolute fear that Bernie would lose.

779
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:14,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, so let's take all of them. So yeah,

780
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:18,040
Speaker 2: So I look, anyway, going back Newsom, Shapiro, Harris, it

781
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 2: feels like it feels like you know something on Newsome

782
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:23,720
Speaker 2: and Shapiro, or you're already you already think that they've

783
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 2: maybe already peaked. I think it's more just like I've

784
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:32,440
Speaker 2: heard about these books and what's in them, and I

785
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:36,839
Speaker 2: know they're the personalities of all these folks. And look,

786
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 2: Newsome's challenge is that, you know, it's not a fair line.

787
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 2: Jerry Brown's gonna hear this and get mad at me.

788
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 2: But California folks, they're a little flaky. It's the land

789
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:50,239
Speaker 2: of fruit and nuts. And Gavin's a good looking guy

790
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 2: and comes off as articulate, but he's still doing this

791
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 2: self discovery stuff and how old is See, it's just

792
00:43:57,120 --> 00:43:59,760
Speaker 2: easier to kind of caricature I think him and this book.

793
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:02,480
Speaker 2: I've been told that he's coming out with here pretty soon.

794
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:06,880
Speaker 2: Pretty raw about him knew his self discovery. On the

795
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 2: Shapiro thing, this is more sensitive. But he had this

796
00:44:10,040 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 2: terrible family tragedy that's you know, arsening at the mansion

797
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:17,720
Speaker 2: in Harrisburg. The risk for Shapiro is he just uses

798
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 2: that as a political origin story to run a presidential

799
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:24,560
Speaker 2: campaign and it backfires because it's just too unsubtle about

800
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:27,400
Speaker 2: what happened. In the case of Harris, it's a straightforward

801
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:30,600
Speaker 2: she thinks folks buying her book beings they wanted to

802
00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:34,439
Speaker 2: run again, which ain't the case. On Buddha Jedge, he's

803
00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 2: a smart guy, and his book will show that he's

804
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 2: a smart guy, but he's the smartest guy in the room,

805
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:41,880
Speaker 2: which is why his future in politics is in a

806
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:46,880
Speaker 2: pointive not electoral politics. I think you could pick and

807
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 2: he had those four tell you the truth. I chose

808
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 2: the Kamala Harris. There's no appetite among Democrats, Chuck to

809
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:58,520
Speaker 2: relive anything to do with twenty twenty four. All Right,

810
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:01,120
Speaker 2: I completely agree, Joe Biden, come here.

811
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 1: If you have Biden on your resume, you're done. And

812
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:06,239
Speaker 1: this is my issue. I think Pete and Kamala have

813
00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 1: the same issue.

814
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 2: It's a similar challenge. Look who was not on a

815
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:14,160
Speaker 2: campaign trail in twenty twenty one. Joe Biden, Kamala Harris

816
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 2: Tim Walls, who are the three main actors from the

817
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:20,120
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four campaign, could not be fell on anywhere

818
00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:22,600
Speaker 2: on a campaign trail the following year because the party

819
00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:25,560
Speaker 2: doesn't want to relive the battle days of twenty four.

820
00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:28,440
Speaker 2: I think that is her challenge, and I think she

821
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 2: knows that, and we'll flirt with this, but ultimately she's

822
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:34,000
Speaker 2: not going to want to come back to lose a primary.

823
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:35,920
Speaker 1: What do you make, By the way, let's do a

824
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:38,440
Speaker 1: quick little rabbit hole, which is what you and I do.

825
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:43,080
Speaker 1: What do you make of the California governor's race and

826
00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:43,719
Speaker 1: the lack of.

827
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:48,919
Speaker 2: I feel like the field is not sad. Oh.

828
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:51,360
Speaker 1: I know it's funny to be The prediction markets have

829
00:45:51,560 --> 00:45:54,319
Speaker 1: Eric Swallwell as the front runner now and you're just

830
00:45:54,440 --> 00:46:01,160
Speaker 1: like wow, and I'm you know, prediction markets in some

831
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 1: places I don't pay attention to California races. I do

832
00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:07,120
Speaker 1: just because I know it's more Californiaan's throwing money in

833
00:46:07,160 --> 00:46:09,040
Speaker 1: there than most most other places.

834
00:46:09,080 --> 00:46:13,239
Speaker 2: We'll see at least one additional candidate. It feels a

835
00:46:13,239 --> 00:46:16,440
Speaker 2: little bit like the fall of twenty nineteen shock when

836
00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:19,239
Speaker 2: Mike Bloomberg and Deval Patrick jumped in the late into

837
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 2: the Democratic primary for president. Forget Patrick even jumped in.

838
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:25,040
Speaker 2: There's a vacuum there.

839
00:46:25,200 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 1: Other than one hundred percent of vacuum.

840
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:27,360
Speaker 2: It's the biggest.

841
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:29,799
Speaker 1: Don't you think Kamala gets talked back. I've heard that

842
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 1: they she was Some were trying to tuck her back

843
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:33,960
Speaker 1: into it.

844
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:40,040
Speaker 2: I think that's I'm that's certainly one scenario. Rick Caruso, who,

845
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 2: of course wrong.

846
00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:43,640
Speaker 1: Caruso is the one that everybody is saying is waiting

847
00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 1: in the war, waiting in the wings our friend Mike Murphy.

848
00:46:47,200 --> 00:46:50,080
Speaker 1: Is he really going to run his first Democratic campaign?

849
00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:52,319
Speaker 2: I know, right? Is this really?

850
00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:54,640
Speaker 1: Is he going to go full? Is it like I've

851
00:46:54,680 --> 00:46:56,920
Speaker 1: always thought he wasn't going to do that, that he'd

852
00:46:57,000 --> 00:46:59,880
Speaker 1: run it independent. I'll be very curious what our buddy

853
00:46:59,880 --> 00:47:00,359
Speaker 1: mine does.

854
00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:04,480
Speaker 2: What it feels like Caruso is tempted to do mayor

855
00:47:04,640 --> 00:47:06,839
Speaker 2: what he ran for one so already rather than governor.

856
00:47:06,920 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 2: But we'll see if folks can change his mind. And

857
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:13,720
Speaker 2: then you know, if the think about the Democratic ranking

858
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:16,719
Speaker 2: member check of the Oversight Committee, Robert Garcia from Long Beach,

859
00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:19,480
Speaker 2: somebody who liked Jared Moscovitz is one of these gung

860
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 2: house Democrats that has a knack for attention and publicity.

861
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:28,160
Speaker 2: I don't know, maybe he jumps in. It just feels

862
00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 2: like there's or maybe somebody from the outside, a sort

863
00:47:32,120 --> 00:47:33,560
Speaker 2: of Tom Steyer type figure.

864
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 1: Well, Styer jumped in, I think thinking it was. I mean, look,

865
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:43,879
Speaker 1: I just think Stier's problem is he doesn't wear well

866
00:47:44,520 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 1: yeah right, he's so intense. And I say this sort

867
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 1: of out of respect. By the way, you don't become

868
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:52,360
Speaker 1: as successful as he is if you don't have an

869
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:55,640
Speaker 1: intensity or drive all of those things. But it's not

870
00:47:55,680 --> 00:48:01,040
Speaker 1: a pleasant it doesn't come across as very accessible, Chuck.

871
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 2: I also wonder if Newsom and Newsom's lieutenants may try

872
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:08,239
Speaker 2: to get back at maybe Padilla, have Padilla take a

873
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:12,319
Speaker 2: look at it again, Tomal, the thing is possible.

874
00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:16,480
Speaker 1: Well, you know what opposite of this state I think,

875
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:21,920
Speaker 1: don't underestibate via Ragosa to suddenly charm his way. If

876
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 1: they don't, if this field doesn't get better.

877
00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:29,840
Speaker 2: Well. Also, also let's let's take swallowed seriously for a minutes,

878
00:48:29,960 --> 00:48:31,520
Speaker 2: speaking of young House Democrats.

879
00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:33,720
Speaker 1: I know he can raise a ton of money.

880
00:48:34,200 --> 00:48:36,520
Speaker 2: He knows how to raise money. And that's the that's

881
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:39,040
Speaker 2: the that's table stakes out there. You gotta get to

882
00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:41,759
Speaker 2: the with with money, and I think he can do that.

883
00:48:41,800 --> 00:48:45,240
Speaker 2: And also I'll tell you a little story here real fast.

884
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:49,359
Speaker 2: The day before the election in November now of last year,

885
00:48:50,360 --> 00:48:52,960
Speaker 2: when California was voting on the ballot measure and reapportionment,

886
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:55,480
Speaker 2: I was in San Francisco for the final rally that

887
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:59,720
Speaker 2: Newsom had at a labor hall. But it was traded

888
00:48:59,760 --> 00:49:02,440
Speaker 2: with drama, not things have new, some of his future,

889
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:05,560
Speaker 2: but because Pelosi was about to announce her retirement and

890
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:08,359
Speaker 2: this is her hometown. So at the press conference after

891
00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:12,480
Speaker 2: the rally, Gavin's not there. It's just it's it's Pelosi

892
00:49:12,600 --> 00:49:16,319
Speaker 2: in the House Democrats, including Zoe Lofgren and including Swallwell,

893
00:49:17,840 --> 00:49:21,920
Speaker 2: and the body language of Pelosi trying to give attention

894
00:49:22,000 --> 00:49:24,640
Speaker 2: to Swallwell and nudge Swallwell forward to get to the

895
00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:28,640
Speaker 2: camera as fashionate like Swawell. And I'll tell you you're Swalwell.

896
00:49:28,680 --> 00:49:30,200
Speaker 2: That's not a bad person to have in your corner.

897
00:49:30,400 --> 00:49:33,120
Speaker 1: She's well, it's funny you brought up San Francisco. My

898
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:37,480
Speaker 1: dark horse candidate to get talked into running is the

899
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:40,160
Speaker 1: mayor of San Francisco's daniel lewiy Because he could self

900
00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:44,920
Speaker 1: fund a raise. He's already seen as like the center

901
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:48,319
Speaker 1: left mayor that's not woke and somehow is making San

902
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:49,799
Speaker 1: Francisco work right.

903
00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:52,759
Speaker 2: Well, the point of personal privilege here, I think I

904
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:56,759
Speaker 2: was the first national writery work. You usually are to

905
00:49:56,760 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 2: do a big piece on Luriy. I was there for

906
00:49:59,200 --> 00:50:01,640
Speaker 2: his inauguration in January. In fact, it was such a

907
00:50:01,640 --> 00:50:03,640
Speaker 2: smart move when you did that. I remember this time

908
00:50:03,719 --> 00:50:06,040
Speaker 2: last year and I wrote a cable card with with

909
00:50:06,080 --> 00:50:10,000
Speaker 2: he and his family. He's the anti Gavin. He's not flashy,

910
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:13,400
Speaker 2: he's not he's not Swath. There's no gel in that here.

911
00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:17,120
Speaker 2: He's just a sort of grinder chuck and he's a

912
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:20,960
Speaker 2: business type. And but he's got I mean speaking of

913
00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:23,799
Speaker 2: a nact for publicity. He has figured out the key

914
00:50:23,840 --> 00:50:25,879
Speaker 2: to being mayor is he got a cell sell sell

915
00:50:26,200 --> 00:50:29,160
Speaker 2: and boy, he has sold San Francisco and everybody in

916
00:50:29,200 --> 00:50:31,640
Speaker 2: the press loves a comeback story. This city. There was

917
00:50:31,719 --> 00:50:36,440
Speaker 2: all the drug user and the homeless nest everything. It's backff,

918
00:50:36,440 --> 00:50:38,680
Speaker 2: It's back here we are. You know, the super Bowl

919
00:50:38,760 --> 00:50:41,440
Speaker 2: is going to be there next month in Santa Clara.

920
00:50:41,480 --> 00:50:45,439
Speaker 2: But it's okay. He has gotten Just count the Wall

921
00:50:45,480 --> 00:50:50,360
Speaker 2: Street Journal news stories and opinion columns about Daniel Lwry

922
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:52,200
Speaker 2: in that city in the last calendar year.

923
00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:54,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I mean it is.

924
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:55,480
Speaker 2: We'll find out.

925
00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:57,160
Speaker 1: At least I've been one of the first people. You say,

926
00:50:57,239 --> 00:50:59,040
Speaker 1: one of the one of the worst things you could

927
00:50:59,040 --> 00:51:01,400
Speaker 1: have on your resume to be a national figure is

928
00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:04,320
Speaker 1: former mayor of San Francisco or former office holder in

929
00:51:04,360 --> 00:51:07,000
Speaker 1: San Francisco. I just think, like you know, Kamala Harris

930
00:51:07,000 --> 00:51:09,200
Speaker 1: and Gavin Newsom are never going to become president because

931
00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:12,319
Speaker 1: of that, right, the perception of San Francisco being sort

932
00:51:12,320 --> 00:51:14,959
Speaker 1: of our like wild and crazy city, et cetera, et cetera.

933
00:51:16,160 --> 00:51:21,400
Speaker 1: But Lourie's interesting to me and in some ways, you

934
00:51:21,400 --> 00:51:26,000
Speaker 1: know there. I don't think a tech self funder is

935
00:51:26,040 --> 00:51:28,160
Speaker 1: going to be trusted. I think the pitchforks are out

936
00:51:28,200 --> 00:51:31,879
Speaker 1: everywhere around the country, so I don't think the old well,

937
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:35,160
Speaker 1: maybe somebody in Silicon Valley will throw money around. I

938
00:51:35,160 --> 00:51:39,440
Speaker 1: think Lurie has laundered that image of himself by actually

939
00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:41,840
Speaker 1: being in office, so he can run as an office holder,

940
00:51:42,120 --> 00:51:42,680
Speaker 1: not as just.

941
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 2: Sort of somebody else who Lord knows craves and craves attention,

942
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:50,800
Speaker 2: and it has certainly huge ambitions. And that's Roe Connell,

943
00:51:51,160 --> 00:51:52,560
Speaker 2: the House member right now.

944
00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:55,000
Speaker 1: I think I heard he already rejected this. I've heard

945
00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:56,920
Speaker 1: people went to him said, you know, you.

946
00:51:56,840 --> 00:51:59,280
Speaker 2: Can win this. He's just not going to be denied

947
00:51:59,320 --> 00:51:59,960
Speaker 2: the national state.

948
00:52:01,000 --> 00:52:04,919
Speaker 1: He's not a Californian. I say this with respect. How

949
00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:08,279
Speaker 1: often when you've had a conversation with Conna does he

950
00:52:08,360 --> 00:52:10,640
Speaker 1: make sure to know he grew up in Bucks County.

951
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:14,520
Speaker 1: He does not want to be associated with a California.

952
00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:17,560
Speaker 1: So he has so far talked himself out of that,

953
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:21,040
Speaker 1: you know, and in some ways trying to rebrand himself

954
00:52:21,360 --> 00:52:25,040
Speaker 1: as the guy who moved to California to learn about tech.

955
00:52:25,480 --> 00:52:26,880
Speaker 1: But he's really a kid from.

956
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:29,839
Speaker 2: Bucks you know, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah yeah.

957
00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:34,520
Speaker 1: All right, all right, let me get this one more

958
00:52:34,560 --> 00:52:35,840
Speaker 1: and then I'll get you out of here, I promise.

959
00:52:37,000 --> 00:52:39,320
Speaker 1: By the end of twenty twenty six, which Republican will

960
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:42,080
Speaker 1: emerge is the best position to challenge JD. Vance for

961
00:52:42,120 --> 00:52:45,200
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty eight nomination. Your fours are Ted Cruz,

962
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:48,840
Speaker 1: who I've put in the Supreme Court by now, Ivanka Trump.

963
00:52:49,640 --> 00:52:53,560
Speaker 1: I might I might have done anybody with the Trump

964
00:52:53,680 --> 00:52:56,120
Speaker 1: last name, not just Ivanka, but we'll put a pin

965
00:52:56,160 --> 00:52:56,360
Speaker 1: in that.

966
00:52:56,680 --> 00:53:01,319
Speaker 2: Tucker Carlson or Marco Rubia. What was your answer? I

967
00:53:01,360 --> 00:53:04,640
Speaker 2: had some fun here, Chuck, because I am a student

968
00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:08,240
Speaker 2: of the Chris Christie school of Donald J. Trump studies. Uh,

969
00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:13,160
Speaker 2: And the Chris Christie axiom is everybody around Donald Trump

970
00:53:13,239 --> 00:53:16,120
Speaker 2: starts with a hundred points on a debit line, and

971
00:53:16,160 --> 00:53:19,239
Speaker 2: the debit line only goes one direction. It only goes sick. Right.

972
00:53:19,600 --> 00:53:22,839
Speaker 2: The only exception to this is Ivanka Trump. She does

973
00:53:22,880 --> 00:53:26,560
Speaker 2: not have that same challenge and Christie's Christie's bid is

974
00:53:26,560 --> 00:53:30,560
Speaker 2: that the debit line goes south faster for some than others,

975
00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:33,319
Speaker 2: but it's only going one direction. And so if you

976
00:53:33,440 --> 00:53:37,680
Speaker 2: if why did that, maximum, Chuck, then Ivanka Trump is

977
00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:40,120
Speaker 2: going to be the person who is best positioned to

978
00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:43,680
Speaker 2: challenge Vance because Trump will get tired of everybody else, right,

979
00:53:45,760 --> 00:53:51,520
Speaker 2: why her and not Laura. It's his daughter, I know.

980
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:55,600
Speaker 1: I mean blood, blood is thicker than then than the

981
00:53:55,640 --> 00:53:56,440
Speaker 1: marriage license.

982
00:53:56,560 --> 00:54:02,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think we underestimate Trump's desire for

983
00:54:03,000 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 2: you know, just sort of keeping the Trump name.

984
00:54:06,239 --> 00:54:09,600
Speaker 1: And see, I totally agree with this. I am convinced

985
00:54:09,640 --> 00:54:12,239
Speaker 1: that a Trump is going to be a candidate. I'm

986
00:54:12,280 --> 00:54:14,520
Speaker 1: so glad you wrote now. I just don't believe It'savanka.

987
00:54:15,000 --> 00:54:18,040
Speaker 1: I actually, if I can buy stock, or it's Eric,

988
00:54:18,719 --> 00:54:21,719
Speaker 1: I think Trump. I think you know, it's interesting. Have

989
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:25,640
Speaker 1: you did you notice during Eric's book tour he totally

990
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:28,920
Speaker 1: floated the idea of running for president himself someday. Yes,

991
00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:34,080
Speaker 1: he didn't, and he never plays deference to his brother ever, Okay,

992
00:54:34,560 --> 00:54:38,800
Speaker 1: ever he is. I think there's a weird rivalry between

993
00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:41,279
Speaker 1: the two. I think it's obvious who Daddy trusts to

994
00:54:41,360 --> 00:54:43,600
Speaker 1: run the business and who he doesn't trust to run

995
00:54:43,640 --> 00:54:47,280
Speaker 1: the business. And I think it's obvious who he thinks

996
00:54:47,320 --> 00:54:50,719
Speaker 1: is the most competent of his kids. I think he

997
00:54:50,760 --> 00:54:53,960
Speaker 1: thinks it's Eric. I think that's why Laura gets so

998
00:54:54,120 --> 00:55:01,399
Speaker 1: much stuff. So I do think that you know you're

999
00:55:01,560 --> 00:55:05,120
Speaker 1: you're in the same arena. I'man belief system my men,

1000
00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:07,839
Speaker 1: which is Trump is not going to let Vance have

1001
00:55:07,960 --> 00:55:12,759
Speaker 1: this easy. He may eventually come around to Vance, but

1002
00:55:12,840 --> 00:55:16,160
Speaker 1: he's going to This is going to be something Vance

1003
00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:19,520
Speaker 1: is going to have to He may have to get

1004
00:55:19,520 --> 00:55:22,840
Speaker 1: more I mean, he may have to get thicker knee pads.

1005
00:55:23,520 --> 00:55:26,319
Speaker 2: Vance was anti Trump down now he's pro Trump. What's

1006
00:55:26,360 --> 00:55:30,200
Speaker 2: to say he couldn't be anti Trump again, Ivonka.

1007
00:55:29,800 --> 00:55:33,080
Speaker 1: Especially if he's sitting at thirty one percent. Vance is machiavelliant,

1008
00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:35,560
Speaker 1: that's right. Peter Thial is going to be telling him, Hey,

1009
00:55:35,600 --> 00:55:36,840
Speaker 1: maybe time to ditch Trump.

1010
00:55:37,920 --> 00:55:40,359
Speaker 2: Eric and Ivanka Trump are never going to be anti

1011
00:55:40,360 --> 00:55:42,520
Speaker 2: Trump because their last name was Trump. So it's like

1012
00:55:43,120 --> 00:55:44,280
Speaker 2: this is the family project.

1013
00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:46,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is more likely than folks realize.

1014
00:55:47,040 --> 00:55:51,080
Speaker 1: I know. And we're so dismissive. We're collectively dismissive of

1015
00:55:51,120 --> 00:55:55,120
Speaker 1: it because we're always dismissive of things we've never seen before.

1016
00:55:55,520 --> 00:55:55,719
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1017
00:55:56,000 --> 00:55:57,840
Speaker 1: And the thing with Donald Trump, with we all have

1018
00:55:57,920 --> 00:56:00,239
Speaker 1: had to learn is just because it hasn't had and

1019
00:56:00,239 --> 00:56:00,799
Speaker 1: doesn't mean it.

1020
00:56:00,840 --> 00:56:03,359
Speaker 2: Well, there was a column I was going to write

1021
00:56:03,360 --> 00:56:06,399
Speaker 2: if Laura Trump had run for the Senate. I wanted

1022
00:56:06,400 --> 00:56:08,319
Speaker 2: to write this. Now she obviously that didn't do it,

1023
00:56:08,480 --> 00:56:10,879
Speaker 2: but I think her not running was significant because if

1024
00:56:10,880 --> 00:56:13,440
Speaker 2: she had run, it would have been very important chuckle,

1025
00:56:13,719 --> 00:56:16,920
Speaker 2: because if she was to have won, it would have

1026
00:56:17,120 --> 00:56:22,560
Speaker 2: perpetuated the Trump name and created the Trump dynasty. I

1027
00:56:22,600 --> 00:56:24,799
Speaker 2: know liberals are going to hate to hear that, but

1028
00:56:25,560 --> 00:56:29,880
Speaker 2: that's one step closer to making this a longer term project.

1029
00:56:30,120 --> 00:56:32,839
Speaker 2: It makes it two generations of Trump's. I just think

1030
00:56:33,360 --> 00:56:36,680
Speaker 2: Laura took a pass in twenty six North Carolina. I

1031
00:56:36,680 --> 00:56:39,400
Speaker 2: don't think that we're going to have the next generation

1032
00:56:39,440 --> 00:56:42,040
Speaker 2: of Trump's take a pass forever, whether it's twenty eight

1033
00:56:42,160 --> 00:56:46,920
Speaker 2: or thirty. I remind you, will remind you of two cycles.

1034
00:56:47,440 --> 00:56:51,799
Speaker 2: Nineteen ninety two, George HW. Bush loses a reelection. The

1035
00:56:51,840 --> 00:56:55,280
Speaker 2: following cycle of nineteen ninety four, his two sons run

1036
00:56:55,440 --> 00:56:58,360
Speaker 2: for governor of to the biggest states in the country.

1037
00:56:58,560 --> 00:57:03,080
Speaker 2: One wins, one loses. But the point is that one

1038
00:57:03,120 --> 00:57:07,120
Speaker 2: cycle between the two sons of the president running for governor.

1039
00:57:07,800 --> 00:57:09,880
Speaker 2: The Trump's are nobles, the ambitious of the Bushes.

1040
00:57:10,320 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 1: There are four names that there are four names out

1041
00:57:13,640 --> 00:57:19,080
Speaker 1: there in American history that have produced multiple presidents or

1042
00:57:19,200 --> 00:57:23,240
Speaker 1: close to presidents, right, and it's it's the Adams is

1043
00:57:23,280 --> 00:57:26,280
Speaker 1: the Roosevelts, the Bushes, and the Kennedy's, and Trump wants

1044
00:57:26,320 --> 00:57:27,360
Speaker 1: to be all of them.

1045
00:57:27,720 --> 00:57:30,160
Speaker 2: Of course he does. I mean back to Mount Rushmore.

1046
00:57:30,400 --> 00:57:33,520
Speaker 2: He wants, you know, literally but also better for k

1047
00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:35,600
Speaker 2: He wants to be on Rushmore. And one of the

1048
00:57:35,600 --> 00:57:37,800
Speaker 2: ways you do that is you name stuff after yourself.

1049
00:57:37,880 --> 00:57:42,960
Speaker 2: You get peace prizes, you do big trade deals with countries.

1050
00:57:42,480 --> 00:57:45,320
Speaker 1: That you get a kid elected, and you get a

1051
00:57:45,320 --> 00:57:46,440
Speaker 1: sign elected.

1052
00:57:46,160 --> 00:57:48,280
Speaker 2: And you get a sign one who can carry the

1053
00:57:48,320 --> 00:57:50,720
Speaker 2: banner going forward. We haven't talked about this yet, but

1054
00:57:50,760 --> 00:57:54,000
Speaker 2: this is important. Twenty twenty six. The biggest China dove

1055
00:57:54,040 --> 00:57:57,000
Speaker 2: in Washington is Donald Trump, right always has Trump is

1056
00:57:57,040 --> 00:58:00,640
Speaker 2: a total China dove. Look, it was so cla when

1057
00:58:00,640 --> 00:58:04,080
Speaker 2: he was asked at mar Lago about the new Trump

1058
00:58:04,120 --> 00:58:07,720
Speaker 2: class of chefs. Speaking of Trump namestuff after himself, he said,

1059
00:58:07,800 --> 00:58:11,040
Speaker 2: is this is this being done to send a message

1060
00:58:12,320 --> 00:58:15,320
Speaker 2: of containment or whatever against the Chinese? He said, no, no,

1061
00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:17,960
Speaker 2: no, no no. We got along with China very very well.

1062
00:58:18,320 --> 00:58:20,760
Speaker 2: I mean, he doesn't want to be in conflict with China.

1063
00:58:20,800 --> 00:58:23,120
Speaker 2: He wants to deals with China. Schuck. I think twenty

1064
00:58:23,160 --> 00:58:28,280
Speaker 2: twenty six will see Trump and en g standing together

1065
00:58:28,360 --> 00:58:31,960
Speaker 2: in Beijing signing a major deal. Now, who knows what

1066
00:58:32,080 --> 00:58:33,920
Speaker 2: the actual details are going to be. Trump doesn't care

1067
00:58:33,920 --> 00:58:36,680
Speaker 2: about that, but the image is going to be indelible.

1068
00:58:37,000 --> 00:58:41,000
Speaker 2: Trump will say I brought the two superpowers of the

1069
00:58:41,000 --> 00:58:44,800
Speaker 2: world together. I preempted World War three, and I have

1070
00:58:44,920 --> 00:58:48,360
Speaker 2: done this great personal diplomacy and brought brought our great

1071
00:58:48,440 --> 00:58:51,120
Speaker 2: nations together. I'm telling you it's gonna happen in twenty

1072
00:58:51,160 --> 00:58:51,920
Speaker 2: twenty six.

1073
00:58:52,560 --> 00:58:56,200
Speaker 1: And that will be politically unpopular both sides of the eye.

1074
00:58:56,560 --> 00:58:59,360
Speaker 1: Getting neck cozy with China. That could be what splinters

1075
00:58:59,400 --> 00:59:03,560
Speaker 1: his coalition. Yeah, you know, the dirty little secret about

1076
00:59:03,560 --> 00:59:07,400
Speaker 1: the twenty twelve presidential election is how much China bashing

1077
00:59:07,520 --> 00:59:12,160
Speaker 1: helped Obama defeat Romney. Yes, in the in the industry,

1078
00:59:12,200 --> 00:59:15,440
Speaker 1: in the agricultural and industrial Midwest, right, And I just

1079
00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:16,560
Speaker 1: you know, I don't.

1080
00:59:16,320 --> 00:59:19,280
Speaker 2: Think every time Trump says he's for h one, BV

1081
00:59:19,400 --> 00:59:22,240
Speaker 2: says because we can't do those jobs in America, says, yeah,

1082
00:59:22,240 --> 00:59:25,000
Speaker 2: we're gonna have Chinese kids here studying at universities. We

1083
00:59:25,080 --> 00:59:27,920
Speaker 2: need their money. It's what he actually believes.

1084
00:59:28,080 --> 00:59:32,640
Speaker 1: Because the MAGA hates it. Now, the true believers in

1085
00:59:32,720 --> 00:59:41,040
Speaker 1: MAGA hate it. Dead fun with Lane Kiff, the Lane

1086
00:59:41,080 --> 00:59:44,160
Speaker 1: Kiff and experience in Aution. We are speaking the night

1087
00:59:44,280 --> 00:59:51,919
Speaker 1: the morning after Ole misses, upset of Georgia. Yes, and

1088
00:59:52,360 --> 00:59:56,480
Speaker 1: the and the lesser and the and the changing of

1089
00:59:56,520 --> 01:00:01,160
Speaker 1: the guard, the humiliation. I'm I'm a what Alabama is

1090
01:00:01,160 --> 01:00:03,760
Speaker 1: going through. I went through in two thousand and four,

1091
01:00:03,840 --> 01:00:06,520
Speaker 1: two thousand and five with Miami, where you're a you're

1092
01:00:07,000 --> 01:00:09,920
Speaker 1: you're still a dynasty, but you could feel the exhaust

1093
01:00:10,000 --> 01:00:13,440
Speaker 1: fumes are catching up. Other teams have caught up. For Miami,

1094
01:00:13,480 --> 01:00:16,480
Speaker 1: it was in a humiliation by LSU actually in a

1095
01:00:16,520 --> 01:00:19,480
Speaker 1: Peach Bowl we lost forty two to three. It just

1096
01:00:19,520 --> 01:00:21,560
Speaker 1: sort of that was it. That's when you knew it

1097
01:00:21,600 --> 01:00:26,040
Speaker 1: was over. The dynasty was ending, a pay the era

1098
01:00:26,240 --> 01:00:30,680
Speaker 1: was ending for Miami for that period that Indiana loss

1099
01:00:30,680 --> 01:00:33,880
Speaker 1: felt that way. I'm going in a long about way

1100
01:00:33,920 --> 01:00:36,360
Speaker 1: of this. Klen de Bor now has eight losses in

1101
01:00:36,400 --> 01:00:39,000
Speaker 1: two years. It took Nick Saban five years to get

1102
01:00:39,080 --> 01:00:44,480
Speaker 1: eight losses. Another three loss or worse season in Tuscaloosa

1103
01:00:44,640 --> 01:00:47,200
Speaker 1: means he's gone by the end of twenty six. Yes,

1104
01:00:48,440 --> 01:00:51,120
Speaker 1: I think Klein de Bor is miserable. I think it's

1105
01:00:51,120 --> 01:00:56,000
Speaker 1: it sucks. The ghost you're chasing lives in Tuscalaloosa. He's

1106
01:00:56,040 --> 01:00:59,280
Speaker 1: on ESPN all the time. God bless him. I love

1107
01:00:59,680 --> 01:01:01,840
Speaker 1: bet Man. I love Nick Saban, Okay, i'm a.

1108
01:01:02,000 --> 01:01:02,280
Speaker 2: I'm a.

1109
01:01:02,560 --> 01:01:05,240
Speaker 1: I love the guy I would I do. I want him.

1110
01:01:05,400 --> 01:01:07,320
Speaker 1: I want him to be commissioned. I think his idea

1111
01:01:07,800 --> 01:01:11,360
Speaker 1: uh to to to move spring practices in the and

1112
01:01:11,400 --> 01:01:14,240
Speaker 1: the portal to May and June makes like total sense.

1113
01:01:14,360 --> 01:01:14,520
Speaker 2: Right.

1114
01:01:14,920 --> 01:01:19,760
Speaker 1: So, but I think the choice you left out on

1115
01:01:19,760 --> 01:01:21,520
Speaker 1: on Lane Kiff and experience in l s U will

1116
01:01:21,560 --> 01:01:23,680
Speaker 1: be drama and debacle of a year, et cetera, et cetera.

1117
01:01:23,800 --> 01:01:26,480
Speaker 1: The one thing you leave out is him leaving for Alabama.

1118
01:01:26,960 --> 01:01:29,800
Speaker 1: But I think there is one job. He was the

1119
01:01:29,880 --> 01:01:33,240
Speaker 1: reason he didn't sign that deal with LSU as quickly

1120
01:01:33,280 --> 01:01:35,680
Speaker 1: as he did is he was waiting to see if

1121
01:01:35,680 --> 01:01:38,600
Speaker 1: Alabama would lose the Iron Bowl to Auburn. He was

1122
01:01:38,640 --> 01:01:40,360
Speaker 1: waiting to see if Alabama to get left out of

1123
01:01:40,400 --> 01:01:43,960
Speaker 1: the play. He if the Alabama job opens up, he

1124
01:01:44,040 --> 01:01:47,720
Speaker 1: wants it. I'm telling you he wants it, and Lane

1125
01:01:47,800 --> 01:01:51,200
Speaker 1: kit and it and I and I think especially if

1126
01:01:51,280 --> 01:01:53,400
Speaker 1: LSU does pretty well next year, which if they use

1127
01:01:53,400 --> 01:01:54,440
Speaker 1: old Missus roster.

1128
01:01:54,280 --> 01:01:57,439
Speaker 2: They will get it in fairness to myself, I haven't

1129
01:01:57,440 --> 01:02:00,800
Speaker 2: written that. I wrote it before Bama got sped Indiana.

1130
01:02:00,880 --> 01:02:04,760
Speaker 2: I know you did. So there was no scenario in

1131
01:02:04,760 --> 01:02:06,280
Speaker 2: which kiln to Boor was going to be on the

1132
01:02:06,320 --> 01:02:10,080
Speaker 2: hot seat in twenty twenty six. There is now had

1133
01:02:10,120 --> 01:02:13,280
Speaker 2: gone to or won a national title this year. Now

1134
01:02:13,680 --> 01:02:18,440
Speaker 2: that said, I agree, kill the Bore loses three to

1135
01:02:18,520 --> 01:02:21,000
Speaker 2: five games this fall in Alabama, it's going to be hard,

1136
01:02:21,520 --> 01:02:23,680
Speaker 2: uh up for him to hang on. And yeah, Kiffin

1137
01:02:23,680 --> 01:02:26,280
Speaker 2: the mercenario, he would certainly love to hop the Bama.

1138
01:02:26,600 --> 01:02:30,680
Speaker 2: There's there's no question about it. I wonder if the

1139
01:02:30,760 --> 01:02:34,120
Speaker 2: Boor self deports Joe. I think he does. I think

1140
01:02:34,120 --> 01:02:34,560
Speaker 2: he would have.

1141
01:02:34,640 --> 01:02:37,000
Speaker 1: I think if the Michigan I think the Michigan job

1142
01:02:37,080 --> 01:02:42,000
Speaker 1: is such a potential nightmare scenario that anybody in there,

1143
01:02:42,040 --> 01:02:45,000
Speaker 1: like I, you want to I'll be the guy after

1144
01:02:45,040 --> 01:02:46,560
Speaker 1: the next guy in Michigan.

1145
01:02:46,640 --> 01:02:49,560
Speaker 2: Right like that, Let's let's stop bearing the leader and

1146
01:02:49,600 --> 01:02:51,680
Speaker 2: talk about what's actually on your mind, which is the

1147
01:02:51,760 --> 01:02:55,600
Speaker 2: University of Miami Hurricanes return to greatness. I mean, first

1148
01:02:55,600 --> 01:02:57,880
Speaker 2: of all, I'm happy for you as your friend, that

1149
01:02:58,520 --> 01:02:59,800
Speaker 2: your your experience in this.

1150
01:03:00,840 --> 01:03:02,520
Speaker 1: We're doing it the right way. That we're doing it

1151
01:03:02,520 --> 01:03:06,800
Speaker 1: in a sustainable way, that's all. I think it's pretty sustainable.

1152
01:03:06,880 --> 01:03:14,080
Speaker 2: We'll see this so good for the game of college football.

1153
01:03:14,240 --> 01:03:15,360
Speaker 1: Look at this Final four.

1154
01:03:15,600 --> 01:03:20,520
Speaker 2: Jonathan Bama and Clemson were winning every other year. We're

1155
01:03:21,680 --> 01:03:25,040
Speaker 2: deadening for the national game to have a West Coast

1156
01:03:25,080 --> 01:03:29,720
Speaker 2: team like Oregon really competitive every year on upstart Big

1157
01:03:29,840 --> 01:03:31,840
Speaker 2: Ten that never had a football for Again.

1158
01:03:31,640 --> 01:03:34,600
Speaker 1: We've culturally all four regions of this country are representing

1159
01:03:34,640 --> 01:03:36,960
Speaker 1: because Miami is not a southern school. Miami really is

1160
01:03:36,960 --> 01:03:40,360
Speaker 1: an East coast school, right. Oh Miss is the southern school,

1161
01:03:40,640 --> 01:03:43,800
Speaker 1: Indiana's the Midwestern school, Oregon is the West coast school.

1162
01:03:44,000 --> 01:03:49,680
Speaker 1: We really have the three major cultural regions all represented

1163
01:03:49,680 --> 01:03:51,800
Speaker 1: in this Final four, which is always what's made college

1164
01:03:51,800 --> 01:03:56,200
Speaker 1: football better than the other sports because of this ability

1165
01:03:56,600 --> 01:04:00,120
Speaker 1: to have fan bases in diverse cultural.

1166
01:04:00,400 --> 01:04:02,640
Speaker 2: The only part of the country that didn't have a

1167
01:04:02,720 --> 01:04:06,480
Speaker 2: real real foot was the Northeast because it's a pro

1168
01:04:06,600 --> 01:04:08,880
Speaker 2: sports reagion never wanted to be right. Well, you could

1169
01:04:08,960 --> 01:04:10,640
Speaker 2: argue that Miami surg has Northeast.

1170
01:04:10,720 --> 01:04:13,320
Speaker 1: Miami is the team of the Northeast, right, because that's

1171
01:04:13,320 --> 01:04:17,240
Speaker 1: what I mean. Culturally, Miami is the combination of the

1172
01:04:17,280 --> 01:04:20,080
Speaker 1: East Coast and the northeast. You know, it just happens

1173
01:04:20,120 --> 01:04:23,040
Speaker 1: to be in the in the in in the south.

1174
01:04:23,200 --> 01:04:24,920
Speaker 2: It's kind of down basketball.

1175
01:04:24,920 --> 01:04:27,000
Speaker 1: Back in the day, you know the joke of Florida,

1176
01:04:27,600 --> 01:04:29,760
Speaker 1: the farther south you go, the farther north.

1177
01:04:29,600 --> 01:04:32,600
Speaker 2: You go north. You got right, although nowadays the further

1178
01:04:32,680 --> 01:04:34,760
Speaker 2: south you go in Florida, like the further south you

1179
01:04:34,760 --> 01:04:37,880
Speaker 2: go into the Caribbean itself. So a lot of America.

1180
01:04:39,440 --> 01:04:42,240
Speaker 1: But what is the what is the vibe of an

1181
01:04:42,400 --> 01:04:45,080
Speaker 1: LSU world? I know you're pretty you're pretty connected with.

1182
01:04:45,080 --> 01:04:49,360
Speaker 2: These days about all that are really really hopeful that

1183
01:04:49,600 --> 01:04:54,360
Speaker 2: that Lane can do this. There's this mentality that we

1184
01:04:54,440 --> 01:04:57,360
Speaker 2: have to have the biggest, the best, the shiniest the

1185
01:04:57,400 --> 01:04:59,840
Speaker 2: first things, think both loves, get Saban to come back. Second,

1186
01:04:59,840 --> 01:05:02,680
Speaker 2: and think was who's the next best current coach? And

1187
01:05:02,760 --> 01:05:03,600
Speaker 2: it was Laying Kiffin.

1188
01:05:03,720 --> 01:05:06,360
Speaker 1: So why wasn't it Signetti. Why didn't they throw a

1189
01:05:06,360 --> 01:05:09,360
Speaker 1: barrel of money? Because actually that's who I think Alabama's

1190
01:05:09,360 --> 01:05:09,800
Speaker 1: going to go at.

1191
01:05:09,800 --> 01:05:12,800
Speaker 2: Athleen kiffens a bigger name. Look, I think summer all

1192
01:05:12,840 --> 01:05:15,440
Speaker 2: at two Lane is now going to Florida was more

1193
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:19,040
Speaker 2: of an up and comer. I tell my Lsu brother

1194
01:05:19,200 --> 01:05:21,760
Speaker 2: in this, I said, guys, Nick Saban was not Nick

1195
01:05:21,840 --> 01:05:24,440
Speaker 2: Saban when he came to Baton Rouge. Right, it was

1196
01:05:24,440 --> 01:05:25,600
Speaker 2: the Michigan state coach.

1197
01:05:25,920 --> 01:05:27,840
Speaker 1: No, but he had won there. But let me but

1198
01:05:27,880 --> 01:05:29,920
Speaker 1: that in the way it works now you realize in

1199
01:05:29,960 --> 01:05:32,040
Speaker 1: college because I look at how you know why Mario

1200
01:05:32,120 --> 01:05:35,000
Speaker 1: Christobal got the job because he had a super pack

1201
01:05:35,120 --> 01:05:38,640
Speaker 1: waiting to go, Meaning just like in politics, now, you're

1202
01:05:38,680 --> 01:05:41,439
Speaker 1: a better candidate for a job if you also can

1203
01:05:41,480 --> 01:05:43,880
Speaker 1: bring donors to the situation.

1204
01:05:44,200 --> 01:05:46,280
Speaker 2: And Mario had it.

1205
01:05:46,560 --> 01:05:49,520
Speaker 1: There was a donor community in South Florida that was

1206
01:05:49,640 --> 01:05:52,880
Speaker 1: ready to cut checks if Mario has made the coach.

1207
01:05:53,400 --> 01:05:56,320
Speaker 1: If Manny was Diaz was kept the coach a very

1208
01:05:56,320 --> 01:05:59,880
Speaker 1: good coach, mind you, okay, but if he was, he

1209
01:06:00,200 --> 01:06:02,160
Speaker 1: the same amount of donors weren't going to write as

1210
01:06:02,160 --> 01:06:04,480
Speaker 1: big as checks. So the point is is that Mario

1211
01:06:04,560 --> 01:06:08,200
Speaker 1: came in with Joey Maguire came in with checks. Right,

1212
01:06:08,640 --> 01:06:11,840
Speaker 1: I think this is the new world. You've got to

1213
01:06:11,880 --> 01:06:17,720
Speaker 1: bring Lane Kiffin brings money, gott to bring he said,

1214
01:06:17,840 --> 01:06:20,080
Speaker 1: just like with you know, how are you a viable

1215
01:06:20,120 --> 01:06:22,560
Speaker 1: senate candidate to the John Thuns and Chuck Schumers In

1216
01:06:22,600 --> 01:06:22,880
Speaker 1: the world.

1217
01:06:23,400 --> 01:06:27,080
Speaker 2: I haven't any rich friends if you ask LSU fans

1218
01:06:27,080 --> 01:06:31,160
Speaker 2: probably though what's over under on Lane's tenure basically for years,

1219
01:06:31,440 --> 01:06:35,160
Speaker 2: you know. Anyway, More importantly, I'm happy for you. It's

1220
01:06:35,160 --> 01:06:38,280
Speaker 2: gonna be means uh, it's cool to see there were

1221
01:06:38,840 --> 01:06:43,320
Speaker 2: the return to greatness. It's we haven't returned yet. We're

1222
01:06:43,360 --> 01:06:46,120
Speaker 2: knocking on the door in Miami. There's only one thing

1223
01:06:46,160 --> 01:06:49,400
Speaker 2: that counts championships. We've never heard about old mister a

1224
01:06:49,440 --> 01:06:53,200
Speaker 2: minute too, because city has obviously, I mean speaking of

1225
01:06:53,200 --> 01:06:57,520
Speaker 2: a state film of insecurities. Oh gosh, in so many categories, right,

1226
01:06:57,520 --> 01:07:00,360
Speaker 2: you know, they always have the best part aready in

1227
01:07:00,400 --> 01:07:03,360
Speaker 2: the grove, but they do always have the best success

1228
01:07:03,480 --> 01:07:06,760
Speaker 2: on the field, and here they have this dream season.

1229
01:07:07,040 --> 01:07:10,000
Speaker 2: Their coach abandons them, breaks their heart and they still

1230
01:07:10,280 --> 01:07:12,440
Speaker 2: are are are winning And how a you have to

1231
01:07:12,480 --> 01:07:17,080
Speaker 2: win the national titles? I don't think this. I mean,

1232
01:07:17,120 --> 01:07:20,160
Speaker 2: obviously Indiana has been a cool story nationally and this

1233
01:07:20,240 --> 01:07:23,160
Speaker 2: has really griped Mississippi like I don't think any other

1234
01:07:23,240 --> 01:07:25,880
Speaker 2: story this year because it just means so much to them,

1235
01:07:25,920 --> 01:07:26,919
Speaker 2: right I.

1236
01:07:27,080 --> 01:07:28,960
Speaker 1: You know it's interesting is is that this is one

1237
01:07:29,000 --> 01:07:31,480
Speaker 1: of those where there are there are good narratives for

1238
01:07:31,560 --> 01:07:34,880
Speaker 1: whatever winner we get. The Indiana narrative is obvious, even

1239
01:07:35,000 --> 01:07:36,480
Speaker 1: like Signetti said it the other day.

1240
01:07:36,680 --> 01:07:37,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's kind of.

1241
01:07:37,280 --> 01:07:40,680
Speaker 1: A sports movie, right, but one could argue Ole Miss

1242
01:07:40,760 --> 01:07:42,920
Speaker 1: is a sports movie. The coach leaves and it's a

1243
01:07:43,000 --> 01:07:46,240
Speaker 1: rally around. But even Oregon and Miami have their own narratives, right.

1244
01:07:46,440 --> 01:07:49,120
Speaker 1: Oregon has been this organ's been knocking on the door,

1245
01:07:49,200 --> 01:07:52,520
Speaker 1: but not really. They've been allowed into the into the

1246
01:07:52,640 --> 01:07:56,240
Speaker 1: club with a with a chaperone, but they've never been

1247
01:07:56,280 --> 01:07:59,600
Speaker 1: able to Actually they're not They don't have membership. They're

1248
01:07:59,600 --> 01:08:03,320
Speaker 1: always invited, but they've never actually earned a membership into

1249
01:08:03,320 --> 01:08:06,480
Speaker 1: the club. Even Miami has an old card into the

1250
01:08:06,480 --> 01:08:09,520
Speaker 1: club right there. Now, they they're the lone blue blood

1251
01:08:09,960 --> 01:08:12,720
Speaker 1: left and I've never thought of Miami as a blue blood,

1252
01:08:13,240 --> 01:08:19,040
Speaker 1: but historically they have the resume of one stories.

1253
01:08:19,360 --> 01:08:20,640
Speaker 2: You can see the movie for a little Miss to

1254
01:08:20,840 --> 01:08:24,920
Speaker 2: Archie Manning shows up atice, you know, and uh gets

1255
01:08:24,920 --> 01:08:27,400
Speaker 2: the team fired up and they play by the way

1256
01:08:27,280 --> 01:08:30,599
Speaker 2: they've played. Archie clips last night in the Superdome during

1257
01:08:30,640 --> 01:08:33,920
Speaker 2: the Sugar Bowl. That's fun and it's incredible the hold

1258
01:08:33,960 --> 01:08:36,360
Speaker 2: he still has on that program. He's a great guy,

1259
01:08:36,760 --> 01:08:38,840
Speaker 2: and he still means so much to that program. The

1260
01:08:38,840 --> 01:08:40,160
Speaker 2: crowd went crazy.

1261
01:08:40,560 --> 01:08:43,400
Speaker 1: The signs of the Mannings. By the way, does a

1262
01:08:43,439 --> 01:08:47,280
Speaker 1: Manning win office before a Trump child wins office?

1263
01:08:47,600 --> 01:08:50,400
Speaker 2: What do you think? I think the meetings will stick

1264
01:08:50,479 --> 01:08:54,840
Speaker 2: to commercials and ESPN. I think and we'll stay, we'll stay.

1265
01:08:55,320 --> 01:08:57,479
Speaker 1: One of them will get talked into running for something.

1266
01:08:57,600 --> 01:09:00,400
Speaker 1: You know it Cooper. Who knows which one of them

1267
01:09:00,439 --> 01:09:00,720
Speaker 1: it is?

1268
01:09:00,760 --> 01:09:01,080
Speaker 2: Cooper?

1269
01:09:01,120 --> 01:09:01,880
Speaker 1: Eli Peyton.

1270
01:09:02,200 --> 01:09:05,639
Speaker 2: I think I think the Manning crew remembers the Michael

1271
01:09:05,720 --> 01:09:09,919
Speaker 2: Jordan Maxim and Michael Jordan Maxim was Republicans by sneakers

1272
01:09:09,920 --> 01:09:11,960
Speaker 2: too well.

1273
01:09:12,000 --> 01:09:15,719
Speaker 1: They're very savvy, they are the very sad.

1274
01:09:15,560 --> 01:09:18,920
Speaker 2: They've got They've got a fairly a political identity, and

1275
01:09:19,080 --> 01:09:21,479
Speaker 2: which is hard in this era. It's really hard in

1276
01:09:21,520 --> 01:09:25,000
Speaker 2: this era. And I think they probably prefer to keep

1277
01:09:25,040 --> 01:09:29,519
Speaker 2: that for a while. You know, uh k Mark you,

1278
01:09:29,960 --> 01:09:30,240
Speaker 2: how do you?

1279
01:09:30,280 --> 01:09:32,080
Speaker 1: How do you feel as a uv A guy about

1280
01:09:32,120 --> 01:09:32,919
Speaker 1: James Madison?

1281
01:09:32,960 --> 01:09:35,000
Speaker 2: Do you did you pull for him? Are we a little?

1282
01:09:37,800 --> 01:09:40,040
Speaker 2: I think JMU was a great one double a school

1283
01:09:40,120 --> 01:09:45,719
Speaker 2: that would have been it's good for Virginia. I look,

1284
01:09:45,800 --> 01:09:48,080
Speaker 2: I I grew up to hearing for UVA basketball and

1285
01:09:48,120 --> 01:09:52,000
Speaker 2: football growing up in Virginia and George Welsh was an

1286
01:09:52,000 --> 01:09:56,080
Speaker 2: incredible coach, and those teams were fantastic in the nineties

1287
01:09:56,080 --> 01:09:59,040
Speaker 2: and and and and the ads. It's just hard to

1288
01:09:59,080 --> 01:10:02,320
Speaker 2: sustain the model and football year at a UVA a

1289
01:10:02,360 --> 01:10:04,439
Speaker 2: competitive football program, but if they had a hell of

1290
01:10:04,439 --> 01:10:08,479
Speaker 2: a year. Basketball is more interesting there because of the

1291
01:10:08,520 --> 01:10:12,479
Speaker 2: portal era, uh and because of what Bennett put together.

1292
01:10:13,000 --> 01:10:15,439
Speaker 2: And I think, you know, I know Ryan Otum out

1293
01:10:15,520 --> 01:10:17,360
Speaker 2: to college with them. Ryan Otum has got I think,

1294
01:10:17,360 --> 01:10:19,920
Speaker 2: great promise. It's gonna be fun to watch UVA basketball

1295
01:10:19,960 --> 01:10:20,360
Speaker 2: this year.

1296
01:10:20,760 --> 01:10:22,760
Speaker 1: I'm excited for him. And I know there's a lot

1297
01:10:22,800 --> 01:10:27,000
Speaker 1: of a lot of our UVA friends, Danielle Jones and Jones.

1298
01:10:27,040 --> 01:10:29,760
Speaker 1: I mean, everybody's pull it for Ryan, right like there

1299
01:10:29,800 --> 01:10:32,280
Speaker 1: is a there's a big community behind him.

1300
01:10:32,280 --> 01:10:34,559
Speaker 2: So that's fun. Yeah, And look, I think I think

1301
01:10:34,600 --> 01:10:37,240
Speaker 2: he's taking that program in the right direction. And I

1302
01:10:37,280 --> 01:10:40,880
Speaker 2: think they have great, great problems. It's just tough chucking.

1303
01:10:41,000 --> 01:10:44,200
Speaker 2: All these coaches every year are putting together at least

1304
01:10:44,240 --> 01:10:47,280
Speaker 2: four new kids on the court, uh, if not five,

1305
01:10:47,520 --> 01:10:49,720
Speaker 2: and there's just not much continuity.

1306
01:10:50,160 --> 01:10:53,040
Speaker 1: Here's what it does put a premium on is I

1307
01:10:53,080 --> 01:10:55,120
Speaker 1: do think there's an extra premium. And this is true

1308
01:10:55,120 --> 01:10:57,680
Speaker 1: now in college football, in it with the coordinators and

1309
01:10:57,720 --> 01:11:00,839
Speaker 1: in college basketball with the coaches. There's an extra premium

1310
01:11:00,840 --> 01:11:01,920
Speaker 1: on actually coaching.

1311
01:11:02,720 --> 01:11:02,880
Speaker 2: Right.

1312
01:11:02,920 --> 01:11:05,920
Speaker 1: It used to be you had to be a recruiter

1313
01:11:05,960 --> 01:11:08,640
Speaker 1: and all this stuff, but you've got to because the

1314
01:11:08,760 --> 01:11:11,719
Speaker 1: differentiators in football now are the quarterback and the coach.

1315
01:11:12,280 --> 01:11:15,040
Speaker 1: The different because talent is going to be evened out, right,

1316
01:11:15,160 --> 01:11:17,719
Speaker 1: the market is going to is going to essentially even

1317
01:11:17,760 --> 01:11:21,599
Speaker 1: it out. Ditto in basketball, so the distinctions are going

1318
01:11:21,640 --> 01:11:25,360
Speaker 1: to be coaching schemes and chemistry and things like that

1319
01:11:25,360 --> 01:11:28,240
Speaker 1: that should make it more exciting. I think college basketball

1320
01:11:28,240 --> 01:11:33,800
Speaker 1: ten years from now is going to be deeper and better. Uh,

1321
01:11:33,840 --> 01:11:36,559
Speaker 1: and it's going to be as high quality as college

1322
01:11:36,600 --> 01:11:38,160
Speaker 1: basketball was when you and I were growing up in

1323
01:11:38,200 --> 01:11:38,679
Speaker 1: the eighties.

1324
01:11:38,880 --> 01:11:43,720
Speaker 2: I really gotta be. Because of nil. Well, there's got

1325
01:11:43,760 --> 01:11:45,479
Speaker 2: to be some rules. There's got to go will be

1326
01:11:45,720 --> 01:11:48,280
Speaker 2: I know, you know there's a rebellion now because some

1327
01:11:48,280 --> 01:11:50,479
Speaker 2: of these kids who are drafted and blading the DEALI

1328
01:11:50,560 --> 01:11:52,360
Speaker 2: are now coming back to play in college. There's got

1329
01:11:52,439 --> 01:11:54,639
Speaker 2: to be some regulation. But I agree it's got huge potential.

1330
01:11:55,040 --> 01:11:58,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, who's a terrible spokesperson for lamenting about

1331
01:11:58,520 --> 01:12:05,280
Speaker 1: the Nili Well, John, he's got to look just. He

1332
01:12:05,479 --> 01:12:08,960
Speaker 1: may be right about his complaints, but you're like, dude,

1333
01:12:09,479 --> 01:12:14,480
Speaker 1: you know you benefited in a system that allowed Kentucky

1334
01:12:14,520 --> 01:12:18,679
Speaker 1: to benefit in ways that we still don't know the truth. Okay,

1335
01:12:19,240 --> 01:12:22,200
Speaker 1: I guess you know. The point is you, John Calipari,

1336
01:12:22,240 --> 01:12:24,360
Speaker 1: are upset that you don't get to create the velvet

1337
01:12:24,439 --> 01:12:27,000
Speaker 1: rope that you benefited from for a long time. So,

1338
01:12:27,320 --> 01:12:30,960
Speaker 1: while again his complaints are correct, he's a terrible spokesperson

1339
01:12:31,000 --> 01:12:31,639
Speaker 1: to be complaining.

1340
01:12:32,120 --> 01:12:35,240
Speaker 2: All right, Chuck Todd, don't go to Fayville anytime soon.

1341
01:12:35,360 --> 01:12:35,680
Speaker 2: All right.

1342
01:12:36,040 --> 01:12:38,559
Speaker 1: I love my friends in Fade Phil. I don't think

1343
01:12:38,560 --> 01:12:42,160
Speaker 1: they're so you know, let's let's see if if I

1344
01:12:42,200 --> 01:12:46,200
Speaker 1: had you know, I'm an old A ten guy, John Calipario,

1345
01:12:46,320 --> 01:12:51,120
Speaker 1: is what if gw at those games? Those games were

1346
01:12:51,160 --> 01:12:56,559
Speaker 1: at that fantas always, we own them. We are the

1347
01:12:56,600 --> 01:12:58,479
Speaker 1: only A ten team that owned you mass in those

1348
01:12:59,040 --> 01:12:59,800
Speaker 1: Keep the rabbit hole.

1349
01:12:59,840 --> 01:13:04,240
Speaker 2: Now we should end on Marcus Cambia you. Oh my god,

1350
01:13:05,160 --> 01:13:08,479
Speaker 2: Happy New Year man, the late Happy New Year, my friend. Yes,

1351
01:13:08,520 --> 01:13:11,080
Speaker 2: it's good to see you, Artile. Happy New Year.