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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 2: the future of the show.

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Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 3: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

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Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

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Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot com.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday. We have the incredible rhynd

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Speaker 2: Groom in this morning for Sager and Detti.

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Speaker 4: Great to have you Ryan, left wing populist takeover.

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Speaker 5: That's right.

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Speaker 2: Actually, we are going to have Emily join us though,

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Speaker 2: so that we can reflect on Trump one hundred days

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Speaker 2: and not have a total left wing Trump's Arrangement syndrome

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Speaker 2: over here.

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Speaker 4: So get our snark in now before where Emily shows up.

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Speaker 5: Yes, exactly.

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Speaker 2: And for those of you who are wondering, Baby is

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Speaker 2: not coming yet that we know of.

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Speaker 5: At least this morning that Sager is.

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Speaker 2: Having to deal with a few things there, so he'll

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Speaker 2: be in later this week, assuming that you know.

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Speaker 4: A lot of fold in place, a lot of appointments

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Speaker 4: the last week or two.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, yeah, a lot going on, so also a lot

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Speaker 2: going on in the world. We are going to dig

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Speaker 2: into all of the polling that has come out with

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Speaker 2: regards to where Trump is as he hits one hundred

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Speaker 2: days this week, both on the top line numbers, where

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Speaker 2: he is economically, the way things have moved, even on

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Speaker 2: issues like immigration, how his own supporters are thinking about

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Speaker 2: the first hundred days. We're going to take a look,

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Speaker 2: of course, at the latest with.

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Speaker 5: The trade war.

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Speaker 2: Shean prices are up and shipping traffic is way way down,

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Speaker 2: so you know, Americans starting to feel the pain at

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Speaker 2: places like Timu and she In see how that reaction goes.

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Speaker 2: We wanted to cover some of the things that have

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Speaker 2: happened with regard to immigration and deportations. That Wisconsin judge

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Speaker 2: was arrested last week. There's also some additional things that

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Speaker 2: we've learned Ice having deported several US citizen children seeing

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Speaker 2: is one to four years old, one of them suffering

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Speaker 2: from cancer, so we'll dig into that. We also have

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Speaker 2: burning clapping back at Alyssa Slotkin and Justice Democrats revealing

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Speaker 2: their first candidate this cycle, something Ryan had sort of

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Speaker 2: exclusive access to or early access, so we'll talk a

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Speaker 2: little bit about that. We also have a bit of

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Speaker 2: an international flare in the show today. This is also

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Speaker 2: partly because Ryan is here and he has done such

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Speaker 2: incredible reporting in Pakistan, but also this is an incredibly

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Speaker 2: important story for everyone, Indian Pakistan inching closer to potentially

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Speaker 2: a war, both of them of course nuclear armed superpowers,

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Speaker 2: so that's certainly something we want to keep our eye

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Speaker 2: in on and Canadians going to the polls today as well.

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Speaker 2: So we're going to have David Dole join us to

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Speaker 2: break down the twists and turns in that race, which

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Speaker 2: has been really centered around our own president here Trumph.

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Speaker 4: And for the India Pakistan story, we'll have said Arthura Roy,

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Speaker 4: who wrote a really prescient investigative piece for us about

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Speaker 4: Jamu and Kashmir a couple of weeks ago at drop site.

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Speaker 4: And we'll also have a pre interviewed Wakasakhmed, who a

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Speaker 4: lot of you know is our terrific Pakistani reporter who's

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Speaker 4: here an exile in the United States, and just to

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Speaker 4: talk about whether or not we're going to get a

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Speaker 4: nuclear war out of.

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Speaker 5: This, but were to take an important discussion.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's rather important. Yeah, before we start onse,

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Speaker 4: we won't have time to talk about the latest updates

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Speaker 4: and Israel Palestine over the weekend. The the the murder

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Speaker 4: spree has just gotten out of control, and people in

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Speaker 4: Guys are saying that, and it's easy to get cynical

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Speaker 4: about this, but people in god are saying that the

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Speaker 4: amount of slaughter is at a scale on like it's

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Speaker 4: been previously. Wow, Like I think fifty three people killed

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Speaker 4: on Saturday, more than fifty killed on Sunday. Just seventeen

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Speaker 4: killed overnight into Monday morning. Meanwhile, net Yahu gave a

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Speaker 4: speech where he insisted that Israel will not accept an

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Speaker 4: Iran nuclear deal unless there's a complete obliteration of Iran's civilian,

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Speaker 4: peaceful nuclear program. It's like, this is a US Iran

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Speaker 4: nuclear deal.

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Speaker 2: Right, So it's so, well, we'd like to we'd like

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Speaker 2: to pretend it is anyway to imagine that it is so.

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Speaker 4: But the question is can he actually bomb around without

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Speaker 4: US support and according to Tulsea Gabbert and Michael Waltz

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Speaker 4: and all these other intelligence officials. No, they can't successfully

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Speaker 4: pull it off. So it actually isn't up to him.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, we were talking before the show. You know,

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Speaker 2: schil abt Amram, who we've described as a liberal Zionist

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Speaker 2: and had on this show. He has been slowly sort

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Speaker 2: of evolving in his views, and he even just now

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Speaker 2: came out on set listens undeniable as a genocide, and

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Speaker 2: basically what tipped him over, and personally, I think at

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Speaker 2: this point there's no real serious debate that you can

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Speaker 2: have about whether or not it's a genocide. And what

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Speaker 2: tipped him over in particular is here they are just

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Speaker 2: outright starving. However, many people are left in the Gaza strip.

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Speaker 2: You now have dozens of people who have already died

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Speaker 2: of starvation. We know Abu Baker was suffering malnutrition. I'm

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Speaker 2: sure there are so many people in gods potentially basically

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Speaker 2: oh everyone, yeah, suffering from malnutrition. At this point, you know,

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Speaker 2: the food and the aid remains blocked. Administration does not

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Speaker 2: appear to be applying any pressure, regardless of what their

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Speaker 2: State Department spokesperson may say, in order to allow that

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Speaker 2: food aid in. And so I mean the clock is

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Speaker 2: ticking on, you know, an escalated extermination campaign. And that's

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Speaker 2: where we are right now.

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Speaker 4: Yep.

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Speaker 2: So all right, well, without that grim update, no pun intended,

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Speaker 2: out of the way, I want to go ahead and

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Speaker 2: get to the very latest with regards to where the

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Speaker 2: Trump administration is at this morning. And as we said,

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Speaker 2: we have a special guest joining us to help us

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Speaker 2: understand what has happened in this first hundred days and

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Speaker 2: how the public feels about it.

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Speaker 5: And that is our own Emily A. Jishinski.

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Speaker 2: All Right, guys said, Trump administration officially hits one hundred

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Speaker 2: days this week. I think we have a fancy graphic

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Speaker 2: we can put up on the screen there with the

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Speaker 2: count count up.

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Speaker 5: I guess through one hundred days.

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Speaker 2: I think we're officially at what ninety eight today or

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Speaker 2: something like that. But all of the polling outfits ninety nine,

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Speaker 2: one hundred days, All of the polling outfits have done

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Speaker 2: their official you know, one hundred days. Where's the at

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Speaker 2: digging into the top line numbers also where he is

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Speaker 2: on an issue by issue basis. So let's go ahead

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Speaker 2: and put up on the screen this graphic that we

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Speaker 2: made with all of the different outlets and where they

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Speaker 2: see his approval at this point. Just a note the

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Speaker 2: one on the end there that's the Harvard Kennedy School.

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Speaker 2: That's just eighteen to twenty nine year old. So that's

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Speaker 2: why the numbers there look a little different, but very

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Speaker 2: noteworthy among that age demographic, which had been sold as

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Speaker 2: you know, really shifting to the right, and of course

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Speaker 2: voted for Trump in more significant numbers than young people

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Speaker 2: had voted for previous Republican candidates in the past, including

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump himself in twenty sixteen. But I mean, overall,

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Speaker 2: the picture here is not a pretty one.

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Speaker 5: If you are the current president of the United States.

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Speaker 2: I think the best ratings you've got there are about

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Speaker 2: eleven points underwater. You've got him dipping into the thirties

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Speaker 2: in at least one of these polls. You know, all

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Speaker 2: of them seem to be clustered around low forties in

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Speaker 2: terms of the approval rate. Really effectively, Emily, I think

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Speaker 2: at this point you can say pretty officially the honeymoon

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Speaker 2: is over. This looks very much like Trump pulling that

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Speaker 2: we saw in the first term, and he came into

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Speaker 2: this office with him you know, fairly positive approval rating.

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Speaker 2: He was roughly around fifty to fifty even had a

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Speaker 2: little bit of an edge you know, above water in

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Speaker 2: some of the polls early in his term. Now, with

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Speaker 2: a combination of tariffs and even things that had previously

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Speaker 2: been strong points for him like immigration going sideways and

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Speaker 2: receiving net negative approval ratings, he is left in a

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Speaker 2: you know, in a position of unpopularity, which is one

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Speaker 2: that he will be familiar with from the past.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good point. I mean, first of all,

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Speaker 1: that graphic is so helpful and incredible. I like that

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Speaker 1: we're now aggregating the pole aggregation with the politics and

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Speaker 1: New York Times. But what's particularly bad news for this

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Speaker 1: administration is that those numbers are not like new dips.

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Speaker 1: If you go and look at these charts, what they

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Speaker 1: reflect is an X. It's almost you could map the

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Speaker 1: real clear politics aggregation on sen your Times aggregation. Somewhere

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Speaker 1: around March tenth, eleventh, Chuck crosses the forty eight percent

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Speaker 1: approved disapproved sort of water mark and then keeps moving

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Speaker 1: in the other direction. So he starts above water and

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Speaker 1: is dipping, and then he starts his disapproves start to

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Speaker 1: go up as the approves start to go down. So

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Speaker 1: that sounds very obvious, but the point is this is

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Speaker 1: a steady trend over the first one hundred days of

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Speaker 1: decline and Crystal. Before we got going, you sent a

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Speaker 1: chart that was also really interesting, which aggregated Trump's pulling

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Speaker 1: numbers on particular issues. Basically, the only one that he

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Speaker 1: is remaining at a decent level on is immigration, and

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Speaker 1: even that he is below water now. The only other

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Speaker 1: thing I'll add is people in the administration are hearing

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Speaker 1: a lot. And we've talked about this on the show

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Speaker 1: about Ronald Reagan in nineteen eighty one, that Ronald Reagan

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Speaker 1: was able to weather a recession and all of the

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Speaker 1: political consequences that came with Paul Volker and the shock

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Speaker 1: and win reelection by nineteen eighty four, even though the

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Speaker 1: economy hadn't arguably quote unquote recovered. That is what this

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Speaker 1: administration Granted Trump doesn't have to run again, although God

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Speaker 1: knows he may, but he's the second term president, so

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Speaker 1: you expect to see a little bit more thicker skin

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Speaker 1: to public reaction. But in this case, they're also really

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Speaker 1: hoping that they're able to land the plane at some

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Speaker 1: point when it comes to the politics of public opinion

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Speaker 1: that right now, what they're doing is dramatic shock. They

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Speaker 1: had the mandate and so they're shocking the country not

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Speaker 1: just on terriffs but on everything. But the numbers are

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Speaker 1: not reflecting a positive, obviously political reaction to any of that.

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Speaker 4: Man, I'm really sorry to hear that, because I was

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Speaker 4: wondering too that whether or not they were starting to

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Speaker 4: think of Reagan in his first term and think like,

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Speaker 4: you know what, Okay, yeah, we are actually going to

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Speaker 4: drive the economy into recession. But that's okay because Reagan

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Speaker 4: did it too. Now, of course in eighty two, Democrats

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Speaker 4: had his massive wave and then yes, then there was

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Speaker 4: a giant landslide that re elected Reagan in nineteen eighty four.

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Speaker 4: The difference, of course, is that Reagan was elected, you

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Speaker 4: could argue to do something about runaway in stagflation and inflation,

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Speaker 4: and in combination with Vulgar. I don't think it was

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Speaker 4: totally happy with everything Vulker was doing, but in combination

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Speaker 4: with Vulker that was aimed at addressing something that voters

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Speaker 4: did say that they were upset about. Now voters have

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Speaker 4: said that they're upset about the collapse of manufacturing over

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Speaker 4: the last fifty years, in the hollowing out of the

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Speaker 4: middle class. And we talk a lot on this show

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Speaker 4: about how at least Trump was acknowledging that concern, and

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Speaker 4: the proxy for that acknowledgment was him talking about tariffs.

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Speaker 4: But then when he comes in and does it this

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Speaker 4: way and drives the country into recession, it's not exactly

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Speaker 4: what people were hoping was going to happen. And so

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Speaker 4: a lot of the conversation seems to be like, did

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Speaker 4: people vote for this or not? Like is this what

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Speaker 4: people had in mind? Let's put up Nate silver Eth

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Speaker 4: and this is one more chart that suggests, no, this

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Speaker 4: is not exactly how people, you know, felt like this

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Speaker 4: was going to go. So, you know, are how are

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Speaker 4: people squaring that? Are they really saying to themselves, Eh,

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Speaker 4: all right, we can actually blow the economy up because

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Speaker 4: Reagan did and Reagan was fine, and he was fine,

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Speaker 4: that's right. Like if that's your model, you're like, yeah,

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Speaker 4: you actually can, it's right.

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Speaker 2: I mean, just to before you grab that question, I'm

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Speaker 2: only one thing to add to that is it's the

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Speaker 2: polar opposite.

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Speaker 5: People voted.

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Speaker 2: The number one thing they said is we want in plation,

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Speaker 2: you know, to come down yes, and terms like how

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Speaker 2: about price increases? So you know, I'm sure. I also

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Speaker 2: think in some ways I find the question of like,

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Speaker 2: you know, is this what people voted for or not

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Speaker 2: to be a little bit silly, because you know, voters

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Speaker 2: like there's a whole basket of things that go into

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Speaker 2: their vote. I think to think of it as, like,

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Speaker 2: you know, here's my checklist, and this is specifically the

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Speaker 2: issues on which I am voting, is just not a

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Speaker 2: realistic assessment of how most voters go about casting their ballot.

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Speaker 2: So I find the question itself to be a little

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Speaker 2: bit silly. But to the extent that people were casting

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Speaker 2: a ballot on one issue in particular, inflation was certainly

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Speaker 2: among the top, if not the top issue, and instead

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Speaker 2: not just on tariffs, but on the immigration policy as well.

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Speaker 2: These are inflationary policies that are almost certain to raise

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Speaker 2: prices significantly, at least in the short term.

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Speaker 1: The Ryan Grimm voter checklist is whether the Eagles will

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Speaker 1: actually show up at the White House if they win

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. No, I think that's true. And the

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Speaker 1: other thing I think could be happening here is because

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Speaker 1: the tariffs were such a dramatic I mean, this administration

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Speaker 1: has been doing all kinds of like generational projects of

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Speaker 1: the conservative movement that are dramatic, and conservatives will quibble

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Speaker 1: with the process, even though Trump is sort of finally

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Speaker 1: handing to them on a silver platter what they've been

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Speaker 1: asking some Republican president to do for decades and decades.

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Speaker 1: So a lot of this is like dramatic, it is radical,

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Speaker 1: and people would say that, but the tariffs are PARTI

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Speaker 1: because the markets and the sort of material effects on

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Speaker 1: people's you know, conditions, They are going to be remembered

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Speaker 1: as the thing that maybe changed the trajectory of public

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Speaker 1: opinion on Trump. But actually, what we've seen in these charts,

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Speaker 1: and you can see it if we put the last

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Speaker 1: one back up again, the Nate Silver one's that's an X,

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Speaker 1: and the X starts to happen before liberation dates right

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Speaker 1: around like March tenth, March eleventh, that's New York Times

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Speaker 1: has it about March tenth. The Real Core Politics one

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Speaker 1: has it around the same time, So that's before Liberation Day.

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Speaker 1: This trend was happening for Trump very steadily.

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Speaker 4: Before Liberation Dayah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and so hit it line there, right, Yep. The

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Speaker 1: gap opens up definitely around Liberation Day. But the point

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Speaker 1: I'm trying to make basically is that the group of

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Speaker 1: people who are independents, who aren't hardcore partisans, who showed

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Speaker 1: up and voted for Donald Trump because of inflation or

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Speaker 1: because of immigration. Frankly, that's the group of people that

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Speaker 1: probably is looking around and saying, I've voted against Joe Biden.

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Speaker 1: I thought Trump would make the economy better. I thought

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Speaker 1: that he would be the only one who had the

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Speaker 1: sort of political guts to take care of what they

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Speaker 1: saw as a wildly out of control immigration system. And

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Speaker 1: they're looking around now and they're like, okay, so those

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Speaker 1: deportations don't seem to be going well. Whether you're from

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Speaker 1: the left or the right, maybe you even want master deportations,

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Speaker 1: and you're like, well, that doesn't mean sending people the

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Speaker 1: sea cut. And on top of that, the market has

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Speaker 1: been in flux. There's percarity, uncertainty, layoffs. So you can

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Speaker 1: see how that one two punch is catching up with

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump. With that group of voters who's not the

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Speaker 1: partisan left or the partisan the part is an anti

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Speaker 1: Trump or the partisan pro Trump.

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Speaker 2: I think you make an important point Emily, which is,

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Speaker 2: I do think the terriffs are the least like, the

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Speaker 2: most unpopular, and they're so dramatic, and they directly impact

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Speaker 2: people's material well being. And do you have huge numbers

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Speaker 2: that say, my personal financial situation right now is getting worse.

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Speaker 2: You have majorities who say, I expect it to get

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Speaker 2: even worse over the coming years. People are expecting price hikes.

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Speaker 2: Like I do think that probably in terms of the

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Speaker 2: souring of public opinion, is the most important thing. But

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Speaker 2: I also do think the fact that he has taken

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Speaker 2: on so much water on what had previously been his

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Speaker 2: most popular issue, which is immigration, because there was so

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Speaker 2: much conversation about these you know, the horrific deportations to

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Speaker 2: Seacott and the you know, just total like a rature

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Speaker 2: of any sort of due process, the revelations that you know,

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Speaker 2: they can't really produce evidence that any of these people

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Speaker 2: so far that we've learned about who are sent there

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Speaker 2: were actual hardened gang members. And then specifically the you know,

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Speaker 2: the conversation around kill mar Abrego Garcia, and if you

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Speaker 2: pull people on the handling there, I mean, it's a

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Speaker 2: landslide in the direction of you know, this should not

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Speaker 2: have been done, and this man should not be disappeared,

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Speaker 2: and they should bring him back, et cetera. I do

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Speaker 2: think that taking bringing him underwater on even his most

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Speaker 2: popular issue has also been an important part of the

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Speaker 2: acceleration in his favorability decline. And so you know, we

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Speaker 2: look at that like April one demarcation, that's Liberation Day,

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Speaker 2: but April is also when we start to really focus

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Speaker 2: in on some of these stories around immigration that people

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Speaker 2: are frankly horrified by.

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Speaker 4: Let's put up a five wall. Emily answers there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is quite an interesting chart to look at,

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Speaker 1: and I think that's an important point because this administration

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Speaker 1: is stealing themselves and they sort of know, and they

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Speaker 1: went in they had this totally contradictory narrative. On the

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Speaker 1: one hand, they had a mandate. On the other hand,

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Speaker 1: handling that mandate could be pretty unpopular. And Trump is

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Speaker 1: having historically a shorter honeymoon than other president. So some

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Speaker 1: of these trends we're talking about are totally normal. You know,

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Speaker 1: you start pretty high and then steadily declined throughout your presidency.

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Speaker 1: We're talking about I've study decline over the first one

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Speaker 1: hundred days not the entire presidency, and so to some extent,

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Speaker 1: the Trump administration and people involved in this themselves because

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Speaker 1: they knew they were about to do some pretty dramatic

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Speaker 1: policy changes. And on the other hand, I don't know

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Speaker 1: that the public thought that the drama would go beyond

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Speaker 1: you know, these kind of common sense policies on immigration

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Speaker 1: or common sense you know handling of the economy. And

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Speaker 1: I'm saying that, you know, regardless of whatever particular policy,

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Speaker 1: that Donald Trump is the alternative to Joe Biden because

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Speaker 1: he has this like in the minds of some voters,

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Speaker 1: he's not the guy who was responsible or oversaw the

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Speaker 1: inflation or oversaw the big immigration numbers. And so Trump

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Speaker 1: will look around and say, I'm cleaning up Joe Biden's mess.

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Speaker 1: But what happens now is Donald Trump and Republicans are

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Speaker 1: just consistently betting on Democrats being even less popular than

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Speaker 1: they are. This is a trend of the Trump era

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Speaker 1: that Donald Trump is, you know, so polarizing that they

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Speaker 1: just need basically like a second term Joe Biden, or

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Speaker 1: they need someone who is as uniquely unpopular as Hillary Clinton.

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Speaker 1: That's their only path to the White House. In the

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Speaker 1: Trump era, as long as Trump dominates politics because he

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Speaker 1: is so polarizing, and to some extent that becomes a

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Speaker 1: bubble right because you lose the will to recapture significant

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Speaker 1: swaths of the public.

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Speaker 4: I can understand why so much of the public didn't

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Speaker 4: expect Trump to make these kinds of moves when it

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Speaker 4: came to immigration, because I think back to imily remember

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Speaker 4: that zero Hedge debate that we posted on immigration. It

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Speaker 4: was Robbie Swavee and like the libertarian presidential nominee on

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Speaker 4: one side against what Jack postobiac and Ryan He's like

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Speaker 4: far far right dudes, And I remember being surprised myself

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Speaker 4: at like how bonkers they were. They were like, they're like,

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Speaker 4: we need to go to war with the cartels, we

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Speaker 4: need to deploy the army in the American state. And

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Speaker 4: I knew that that those views are out there, but

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Speaker 4: I'm like, oh, these are These are fairly influential people

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Speaker 4: who will have the ear of even more influential people

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Speaker 4: like Stephen Miller, you know, if if Trump wins. And

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Speaker 4: so despite doing news shows basically every day, I hadn't

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Speaker 4: quite absorbed, you know, how committed and how radical they

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Speaker 4: were until I think until that debate and so then

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Speaker 4: seeing them actually execute it, it's not surprising that the public

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Speaker 4: is recoiling. But I'm curious as you talk to people

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Speaker 4: in that universe, do they feel chastened at all or

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Speaker 4: are they more like Steven Miller was over the weekend

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Speaker 4: giving who I don't know if you guys saw this,

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Speaker 4: this rant he gave where he's like, we need to

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Speaker 4: get these communists, you know, off the court. And if

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Speaker 4: you think that they're going to stand in the way

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Speaker 4: of President Trump getting the terrorists out of your neighborhood,

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Speaker 4: you know, you've got another thing coming. Like he was

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Speaker 4: just like full on, like you know, maniacally, We're full

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Speaker 4: steam ahead on this. So it are they checking themselves

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Speaker 4: at all based on these numbers or is it no,

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Speaker 4: like this is this is our shot to carry out

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Speaker 4: a revolution and we're going to do it.

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Speaker 1: The Stephen Miller clip is very representative, the one that

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Speaker 1: you're just referencive and and Ryan well, I mean, so

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Speaker 1: this this hardened core absolutely is. I remember Ryan walking

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Speaker 1: out of that debate and just like taking a deep

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Speaker 1: breath and being like, holy shit, you were surprised by Like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it was a lot. It was a lot. But you know,

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Speaker 1: I think that's exactly what we're talking about here, is

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Speaker 1: that the Trump administration felt it had the wind that

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Speaker 1: it's back with the public on immigration and on the

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Speaker 1: economy to the extent where they said, this is a

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Speaker 1: generational opportunity to take dramatic steps, corrective steps in their

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Speaker 1: mind that further the like broader conservative politics, broader conservative project,

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Speaker 1: which is pushing back on a century of as they see,

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Speaker 1: like Wilsonian administrative sprawl. And so they right now feel

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Speaker 1: as though, because the public gave them this permission, that

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Speaker 1: this is exactly like that, and to some extent this

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Speaker 1: is going to be controversial. They're kind of right, right,

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Speaker 1: like if the alternative, if if the alternative is totally

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Speaker 1: open borders as people see it, as people see it,

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Speaker 1: or Steven Miller, some people are still gonna be siding

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Speaker 1: with Stephen Miller and the public because the other policy

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Speaker 1: is so awful, and that's what gives them this idea

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Speaker 1: that they can keep going digging further and further, pushing

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Speaker 1: further and further. And that's obviously where you end up

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Speaker 1: alienating the public, because at some point the policies of

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Speaker 1: the Democrats are not that bad compared to sending people

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Speaker 1: to Seacott. So they are like that because that's this

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Speaker 1: is the hardened core who now feels like they have

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Speaker 1: been vindicated. They are absolutely riding high. They are feeling

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Speaker 1: like they should be dunking on reporters left and right

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Speaker 1: every single day, and they're ready to do battle. And

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Speaker 1: I think that that may come back, and I shouldn't

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Speaker 1: say may that will come back to bite them, because

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Speaker 1: the public have to be able to sort of absorb

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Speaker 1: where the public is, if that's part of your goal.

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean this relates to actually the other conversation

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Speaker 2: we were having before the start, which is the revelation

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Speaker 2: of these you know, signal chat groups Chatham House, Ben

436
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:16,200
Speaker 2: Smith and the reporting and you've got you know, David

437
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 2: Sacks and Tucker Carlson and all these like right wing

438
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 2: media figures and all these right wing tech billionaires all

439
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:25,920
Speaker 2: inside of this chat group, and basically, you know, David

440
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,159
Speaker 2: Sacks sort of threw a fit about some of them

441
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 2: having quote unquote Trumps arrangement syndrome.

442
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 5: And like exited the chat.

443
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,239
Speaker 2: But to me, that's emblematic, first of all, of how

444
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:36,840
Speaker 2: captured right wing quote unquote independent media is that they're

445
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 2: just like, you know, propagating these narratives that are being

446
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 2: said to them directly by billionaires. But in addition, it's

447
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:45,719
Speaker 2: also emblematic to me of what an increasingly tight bubble

448
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 2: they are keeping themselves in. So and that has been

449
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 2: kind of, you know, an intentional project of Trump. Two

450
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 2: point zero is if there's anyone out there that even

451
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:59,560
Speaker 2: may disagree on anything we're doing, we don't want anything

452
00:22:59,560 --> 00:22:59,920
Speaker 2: to do with it.

453
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:01,920
Speaker 5: And you pointed that out emily.

454
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 2: With regard to the trade agenda, you don't have Bob

455
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 2: Leitheiser in there anymore.

456
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:08,480
Speaker 5: You've got Peter Davarro, right.

457
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:11,679
Speaker 2: Because Lightheiser is you know, yes he's a protectionist, but

458
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:14,679
Speaker 2: this is you know, someone who has his own ideas

459
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 2: about things and it's things and his intellectual and will

460
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 2: go about this in like some.

461
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 5: Sort of an intentional way potentially.

462
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,080
Speaker 2: And instead you have Navarro, who's fresh out of prison

463
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 2: and who is an absolute ideologue, unmovable ideologue, driving the

464
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:31,640
Speaker 2: train with regard to tariffs, alongside you know, Trump himself.

465
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:33,639
Speaker 2: That seems to be the one part of the agenda

466
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:37,399
Speaker 2: that Trump himself is really taking ownership of. Meanwhile, I

467
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 2: think the whole immigration portfolio and other and foreign policy

468
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:44,479
Speaker 2: apparently too has been outsourced to Steven Miller, you know,

469
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:47,120
Speaker 2: So you have these and then the all the doge

470
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 2: piece whatever that was of course outsourced to Elon Musk.

471
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 2: So you have sort of these incredibly ideological, off the

472
00:23:55,800 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 2: rails type figures who are completely managing whatever there you know,

473
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:04,399
Speaker 2: ideological hobby horses, and as I said, they're you know,

474
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:06,639
Speaker 2: the whole intent of Trump to two point zero is

475
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 2: to make sure that there is no one in the

476
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 2: room who's going to say this is a bad idea,

477
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,440
Speaker 2: this is illegal, this is unconstitutional, I'm not going to

478
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 2: do this, I'm going to resign. Like that has been

479
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 2: a concerted effort to make sure that's the case. And

480
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:22,760
Speaker 2: so yeah, they're in a complete and total bubble. And

481
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 2: I think they also, you know, they feel like, well

482
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 2: they were the posters were wrong about us before, and

483
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:32,639
Speaker 2: the economists were wrong before, and so we're there's no

484
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 2: external feedback that is going to really move us off

485
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 2: of whatever our you know, wild ideological project happens to be.

486
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 1: I think that's a really good point that because there's

487
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 1: such like limited trust in media feedback and perhaps reasonably

488
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:53,639
Speaker 1: so on that point and polling that people don't. They're like, well,

489
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 1: what we're doing is popular. You know, this is exactly

490
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 1: what everyone voted for. So yes, we are going to

491
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 1: keep sending alleged MS thirteen people to El Salvador. But

492
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 1: on that point, this is this is really interesting what

493
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 1: you said, Crystal, because I think about even the fact

494
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 1: that Peter Nabarro was in prison and how that changed

495
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:17,879
Speaker 1: this second Trump administration after all of the investigations and

496
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:22,199
Speaker 1: escalations in the law fair It's like they are applying

497
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 1: these litmus tests for loyalty that from just a pure

498
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 1: like management standpoint, if this were not the United States

499
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:34,400
Speaker 1: of America but some type of corporation, you would be like, Okay,

500
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 1: what you're doing here, Maybe there's some management logic to it,

501
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 1: because the litmus test is saying you are not counter signaling.

502
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 1: This is you know that to the point that like

503
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:49,439
Speaker 1: they've executed or not executed, excluded not executed yet, but

504
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 1: excluded people from the circle that are critical. They see

505
00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 1: that as counter signaling, and their litmus test is total

506
00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 1: loyalty because if you don't pass that litmus test, you

507
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 1: are a potential vulnerability in the administration. You're a potential

508
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 1: squeaky wheel. You're the potential. You know, Cassidy was Cassie

509
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 1: Hutchinson who or whatever the other girl was who came

510
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 1: out in the January sixth hearings. Liz Cheney, by the way,

511
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:15,119
Speaker 1: someone who was really close with Trump circles and Trump

512
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:17,399
Speaker 1: one point zero. You're the squeaky wheel that can get

513
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 1: us in trouble down the road. And so because of that,

514
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 1: they've really purged people who are willing to be internal critics,

515
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:27,880
Speaker 1: because that's you don't pass the litmus test. And when

516
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 1: there's that genuine hesitation to criticize internally even the trajectory,

517
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:36,159
Speaker 1: then you end up with a chilling effect and you

518
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 1: end up with everyone just hopping on the bandwagon of

519
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: every idea that Stephen Miller has or that Donald Trump

520
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 1: frankly has.

521
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 4: What I also found interesting about this first hundred days

522
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:49,679
Speaker 4: is what Trump didn't do, which is basically pass anything

523
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,560
Speaker 4: through Congress. He did the Lake and Riley Act in

524
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:55,119
Speaker 4: the first couple of days, which is a Democrats just

525
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,359
Speaker 4: base gave him whatever they wanted when it came to

526
00:26:57,480 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 4: immigration because they were really on their on their heels.

527
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 4: But since then it's probably been the least productive kind

528
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,639
Speaker 4: of it's definitely been the least productive first hundred days

529
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 4: of any new president who controlled Congress in like modern

530
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 4: you know, in memory. Instead, he's focused on executive orders,

531
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 4: and he's focused on kind of concentrating power in the

532
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 4: executive bites, going after law firms, going after you know, gutting,

533
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:26,920
Speaker 4: trying to gut universities, you know, rounding up, the rounding

534
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 4: up students, the trade war, things that he can do

535
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:33,880
Speaker 4: on his own, and then having his having his top

536
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 4: administration officials complain that the laws are such that they

537
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:38,639
Speaker 4: get in the way of him being able to do

538
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 4: it legally, like this JD. Vance saying, look, what do

539
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 4: he wants to do? You know, all these people came

540
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:47,360
Speaker 4: in and now it's really cumbersome to get them out. Meanwhile,

541
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 4: of course, though there is progress being made legislatively, you know,

542
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 4: the reconciliation package is moving, The budget you know, continues

543
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:58,640
Speaker 4: to move. Do you do you are are you impressed

544
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,679
Speaker 4: by what you've seen moving through Congress? And do you

545
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:03,679
Speaker 4: think do you think he's going to be able to,

546
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 4: like in the longer run, get this reconciliation bill, the

547
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 4: tax cut bill through and divert you know, he's trying

548
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,679
Speaker 4: to divert tens or maybe even hundreds of billions of

549
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:16,119
Speaker 4: dollars over to ice. Their current budget is something like

550
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 4: nine billion. He wants to put that up somewhere between

551
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 4: three hundred and five hundred, which is like silly, Like

552
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:25,680
Speaker 4: they don't have the capacity to spend that amount of money.

553
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,640
Speaker 4: The point is they would be they would have more money,

554
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 4: and money would be no object for you know, what

555
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 4: they're trying to accomplish. Do you do you think that

556
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 4: they're sufficiently committed to that that they're going to get

557
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 4: some of these things done.

558
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,240
Speaker 1: This is a really quiet source of tension on the

559
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 1: right because a lot of people who are sort of

560
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 1: architects of unitary executive theory, which is where this administration

561
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 1: has spent the bulk of its first one hundred days focused,

562
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 1: Meaning they're trying to retake power that they feel has

563
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 1: been wrongly delegated to bureaucrats and the administrative agencies. That

564
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:01,959
Speaker 1: people who support that also say that's going to require

565
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 1: a lot of codification through Congress. You can't just do this.

566
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 1: We've seen this come up in certain court cases time

567
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 1: and again that this has to be done through Congress.

568
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 1: If you want to get rid of USAID or the

569
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 1: Department of Education, you can't do it with an executive order.

570
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 1: You can't just dismantle the agency. You can dismantle it

571
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:21,040
Speaker 1: in certain ways, but ultimately you have to pass and

572
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 1: act through Congress. And they're all pretty i mean, everyone

573
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 1: you talk to in Trump circles is pretty sure the

574
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 1: midterms are not going to go well for them, that

575
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:32,000
Speaker 1: they're probably going to lose the House. And that's where

576
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 1: it's sort of Twenty twenty five is such a different

577
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 1: year than before Congress got sclerotic and did absolutely nothing.

578
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 1: That's downstream of our politics. We could probably talk about

579
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 1: new gingrids for a long time and how that came

580
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 1: to pass. But the point is, I mean, this should

581
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 1: be a robust legislative agenda that they should be able

582
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 1: to be whipping up bills and getting them through Congress.

583
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 1: They don't even have to be big, like omnibus type bills.

584
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:58,959
Speaker 1: But they can't because they're stuck on these stupid budget

585
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 1: battles and because so much of the energy right now

586
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:04,400
Speaker 1: is in taking power back from the executive branch that

587
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 1: they can't even augment that with you know, Article one

588
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 1: type of activity. So I think that's actually going to

589
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 1: be a bigger tension in the next one hundred days

590
00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 1: of the Trump administration, because a whole lot of the

591
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 1: people who are the policy architects here are going to

592
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:23,040
Speaker 1: want to see stuff go through Congress before the midterms.

593
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 2: Go ahead and put a four up on the screen

594
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 2: that this shows the historical context of you know, Trump

595
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 2: is the most unpopular. He's actually beat his own record

596
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 2: for being the most unpopular president at one hundred days

597
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 2: in modern history. Now, of course, you know, our politics

598
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 2: has changed, like these Harry Truman style almost ninety percent

599
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 2: approval writings are just not really on the table at

600
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 2: this point in time. But you know, even if you

601
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 2: look at Joe Biden at this point he was in

602
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 2: the fifties. You know, Barack Obama was extraordinarily Barbara in

603
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 2: the first term. In the second term, he was we

604
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 2: think of that as being a time when there was

605
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:05,960
Speaker 2: a huge backlash against Obama. He's still at fifty percent there,

606
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 2: you see, you know, George W. Bush not doing too

607
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 2: while they're in the second term, but obviously very popular

608
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 2: in the first term. So in any case, even by

609
00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 2: modern you know, equivalent standards, Trump is sort of uniquely unpopular.

610
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 2: But you know, I want to transition to we have this, uh,

611
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 2: this great clip from Frank Luntz one of his focus

612
00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 2: groups where he was speaking to Trump supporters and asked

613
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 2: them specifically about the tariffs in their concerns about the economy,

614
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 2: they have any concerns about the economy. And this has

615
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 2: been the consistent source of Trump's power. You know, He's

616
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 2: always been compared to other presidents, relatively unpopular, but he

617
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 2: has this group of voters who are ride or die.

618
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 5: And will never leave him no matter what.

619
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 2: And that is certainly evident in this clip that you'll

620
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 2: see where every single one of these Trump voter focus

621
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:00,160
Speaker 2: group participants is like, it's fine if my pohurah one

622
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:02,600
Speaker 2: k goes down. I'm not worried about it. I support

623
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 2: what he's doing. I think this is a masterclass, et cetera.

624
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.

625
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 6: I need to ask you an issue that no one's

626
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 6: brought up and that has crashed your four A one

627
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 6: case most of you to tariffs. Stock market is way down,

628
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 6: it needed a correction. Oh so you support it?

629
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 5: Yes, you bet yep, And I have to tell you

630
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 5: how many for a one K wasn't impacted at all?

631
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 6: How many? First off, how many of you did not

632
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 6: lose any money over the drop over the crash of

633
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 6: the stock market market one indidividual to people?

634
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:48,680
Speaker 7: So and my administration I lost more money than the

635
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 7: Trump administration by far.

636
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 8: Yeah, for the whole year.

637
00:32:58,400 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 6: No one's upset over this.

638
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 8: Now if people just get in and stay the course,

639
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:06,440
Speaker 8: they'll be just fine.

640
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 1: Yeah.

641
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 9: And I was about to say, I'm not a day trader.

642
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 9: I try not to look at it very often, which

643
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 9: is I think a good thing. But I also I

644
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 9: also trust that Trump and all of his advisors that

645
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 9: are involved with the tariff issue know what they're doing.

646
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 9: So I'm just gonna hang on. I know it'll correct

647
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 9: at some point.

648
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 6: How much surprises have to go up before you say

649
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 6: this is not.

650
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 1: That buy from China.

651
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 5: I'd rather pay more money and buy American same And.

652
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 8: Prices only go up if if demand is inelastic and

653
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:49,280
Speaker 8: if there's no alternative supplies. And they're doing a brilliant job.

654
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 8: They're surrounding China with countries that want to manufacture stuff

655
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:56,680
Speaker 8: as well, and we do need to bring this stuff back,

656
00:33:56,720 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 8: the strategic stuff for sure, but but China is going

657
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 8: to be in the soup if they don't knock it off.

658
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 7: Ever, article of quothing I have on is probably made

659
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 7: in China, Malaysiers, somewhere else. Okay, retailers, give me something

660
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 7: made in America.

661
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:16,760
Speaker 2: So Emily Trump has denly lost ground with independent voters.

662
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 2: I mean, the numbers there are pretty extraordinary, and he

663
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:25,239
Speaker 2: has lost some high profile supporters or at least not

664
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:28,800
Speaker 2: necessarily lows them. But some people are starting to express concern.

665
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 2: Joe Rogan has done so. Candice Owens just came out

666
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 2: and said, I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm

667
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 2: siding with Harvard over Donald Trump. So you have a

668
00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:39,280
Speaker 2: little bit of cracks at the kind of elite level.

669
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:42,480
Speaker 2: There's no sign of that in the polling among Republican

670
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 2: based voters, who still very much trust Donald Trump and

671
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 2: very much support whatever it is that he's going to

672
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:50,520
Speaker 2: do whenever it is, he's going to do it well.

673
00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 1: And this has always been Trump math, is that you

674
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 1: have this base and it's actually not even a majority

675
00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 1: of the Republican Party. It never really has been a

676
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:01,440
Speaker 1: majority of the Republican Party. It's about thirty to forty

677
00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 1: percent of Republicans who are just they will leave the

678
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:09,319
Speaker 1: Republican Party if Trump leaves the Republican Party. They are

679
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 1: just Trump first, and then the party, then conservatism. Trump

680
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 1: is their sort of politics. He is the party and

681
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:23,160
Speaker 1: so to them, and so yeah, that's the Trump math.

682
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 1: Is always that group of people who will turn out

683
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 1: to the polls, and then you have to put on

684
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 1: top of that some group of people that is just

685
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:33,279
Speaker 1: plainly voting against the other side. They just think the

686
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 1: other side is so awful that they will swallow all

687
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:39,279
Speaker 1: of the sort of stylistic issues that they see with

688
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 1: Donald Trump or any of the liabilities that they see

689
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:45,720
Speaker 1: with Donald Trump and say, all right, he's less bad.

690
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:49,439
Speaker 1: And that's not exactly what happened with Barack Obama. It's

691
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 1: not exactly what happened with Georgia Bush. You had a

692
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:54,799
Speaker 1: big group of people that were voting of independence who

693
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:57,319
Speaker 1: said I'm actually voting for this person, or swing voters

694
00:35:57,320 --> 00:35:59,440
Speaker 1: who said I'm actually voting for this person, not just

695
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 1: against the other person. And that's how Trump has always

696
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:06,040
Speaker 1: been able to get through. It doesn't translate for Republicans

697
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 1: after Trump, and that is what they have to reckon

698
00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:11,440
Speaker 1: with when they see a Joe Rogan as a Canarian,

699
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 1: the coal mine is that this guy gravitated towards Donald Trump.

700
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:18,839
Speaker 1: As soon as Donald Trump starts to screw things up,

701
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 1: that doesn't mean he's going to ever be around the

702
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:27,040
Speaker 1: Republican Party again. So how do you sort of be

703
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 1: able to weather the storms of Donald Trump and come out?

704
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:33,280
Speaker 1: Does that mean you need to start speaking out against

705
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:35,759
Speaker 1: what's happening in the universities And nobody's going to do that.

706
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 1: But these are the thoughts that are going to start

707
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 1: bubbling up in their heads in the next one hundred

708
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 1: days for sure.

709
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 4: And if we could put up aaight, that shows how

710
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:46,319
Speaker 4: deep in the minority these kind of hardcore Trump supporters are.

711
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 4: Is seventy two percent of people expect a recession, and

712
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:55,879
Speaker 4: the vast majority of them believe that Trump is doing this,

713
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 4: that he's driving us into recession, that this is not

714
00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 4: some external shock to the economy. Thirty four percent approve

715
00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:08,280
Speaker 4: of Trump's tariffs. In this country that is so divided

716
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:12,720
Speaker 4: by tribe, by party, it's very hard to get anything

717
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 4: under like forty five. Like if your side supports it,

718
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 4: then at least forty five percent of the country is

719
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 4: gonna end up supporting it, even if it's the most

720
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 4: idiotic thing ever until it starts to have material bite.

721
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:28,879
Speaker 4: And I think that's the only thing that can kind

722
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 4: of push through the part isn't divide here. So you

723
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:36,400
Speaker 4: kind of wind up with Trump in this in this

724
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:40,319
Speaker 4: trap where if he wants validation, which as we know,

725
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:42,520
Speaker 4: that is the thing that he lives on, you know,

726
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 4: throughout throughout the day, throughout his life, he can find

727
00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:50,359
Speaker 4: that validation in that focus group and from people like

728
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 4: Frank Lunz was talking to there, who are like, yeah,

729
00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 4: need this is this is all great, there's a plan,

730
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 4: trust the plan. Just don't look it's all it's all

731
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:02,879
Speaker 4: gonna be. So Trump can find that. So what what

732
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 4: what could shake him out of this? Is it? And

733
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:08,960
Speaker 4: it's it sounds like the market, Yeah, yeah, the bond

734
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 4: market and the Target Walmart and Home Depot ceo is

735
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:14,800
Speaker 4: coming to tell him the shelves are going to be empty.

736
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 4: Shook him out of it. And he's like, okay, fine,

737
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 4: we're not tw one hundred and forty five percent. And

738
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:22,319
Speaker 4: then everybody's size and they're like, okay, somebody got through

739
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:25,759
Speaker 4: the Trump This is all going to be okay, and

740
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:27,440
Speaker 4: then he's like, it's only going to be fifty to

741
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 4: sixty percent, and it's like, bro, that's the same once

742
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:35,480
Speaker 4: you're over like ten ish percent, Like you're shutting down

743
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 4: global shipping, which is maybe fine if you have some

744
00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:42,280
Speaker 4: plan B for what you're going to do when global

745
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 4: shipping shuts down, but moving it from one forty five

746
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 4: to sixty it's like, oh, he didn't really get it

747
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 4: so that so he he sort of absorbed it when

748
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 4: he heard it from those CEOs. Now the shelves are

749
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 4: actually potentially going to be empty. So will that resonate

750
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:00,480
Speaker 4: at all?

751
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:06,320
Speaker 1: I mean it depends because if you've purged internal critics

752
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:09,439
Speaker 1: and people are walking on eggshells to say, hey, sir,

753
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:13,279
Speaker 1: you're your own supporters, you're working class supporters who paid

754
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:15,759
Speaker 1: money to get to another state to go to a

755
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 1: Trump rally, like these are the types of people right

756
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:21,399
Speaker 1: now who are really unhappy. First of all, does anyone

757
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:24,319
Speaker 1: in the circle have the sort of courage to say that,

758
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:28,640
Speaker 1: to make that point without being blacklisted? I don't know.

759
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 1: It seems like the people who did in that case

760
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 1: were people outside of Trump's circle that were able to

761
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 1: get through to Scott Bessant, and then Scott Bessant was

762
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:39,279
Speaker 1: able to take the message to Donald Trump or that

763
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 1: he heard directly from these guys on Wall Street. I mean,

764
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 1: Trump is here if this is hopeful. Trump is a

765
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:49,400
Speaker 1: savvy politician to the extent that he knows people's material

766
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:54,359
Speaker 1: conditions are a big driver of their politics. And you know,

767
00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:58,160
Speaker 1: the whole thing we haven't talked about here, that's maybe

768
00:39:58,160 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 1: the biggest elephant in the room is the fact that

769
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:03,280
Speaker 1: this guy might want to run for a third term.

770
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 1: And I say run, I don't know what that means.

771
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,880
Speaker 2: There are a Trump twenty twenty eight hat over there now.

772
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:15,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, Scott Scott, as Steve Bannon has said, I don't

773
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:17,319
Speaker 1: know who Scott Bannon is. It's a combination of Steve

774
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 1: Bannon and Scott Bessant. That is an interesting hybrid in

775
00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:24,040
Speaker 1: the like Maga zoo but if you want to imagine that.

776
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:27,320
Speaker 1: But Steve Bannon has said there could be different avenues

777
00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:29,120
Speaker 1: for that, And I just think that is a really

778
00:40:29,120 --> 00:40:32,480
Speaker 1: important elephant elephant little room right now. That changes everything

779
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 1: we just talked about in the way that they see

780
00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:34,920
Speaker 1: this internally too.

781
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, and previously the right would have oh you libs

782
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:40,319
Speaker 2: are trumped arrangements. Of course, he's just joking about that.

783
00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:42,799
Speaker 2: No one's saying that shit this time. No one is

784
00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:43,239
Speaker 2: saying that.

785
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 5: This time.

786
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:45,719
Speaker 2: They're like, oh, I guess he wants to run again.

787
00:40:45,960 --> 00:40:46,839
Speaker 2: We'll see how that goes.

788
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 4: We can't tell what's a joke or not anymore.

789
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:51,040
Speaker 5: It's not none of as a joke. Clearly, none of

790
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 5: it is a joke.

791
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:53,399
Speaker 4: Twenty eight is more likely to be as approval rating,

792
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:54,400
Speaker 4: but still, yeah.

793
00:40:54,280 --> 00:40:55,879
Speaker 5: True, true.

794
00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:59,360
Speaker 2: I so one thing I also wanted to to not

795
00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:02,000
Speaker 2: skip over over and actually, can we go back to

796
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:04,840
Speaker 2: A five and put this up on the screen, because

797
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:07,319
Speaker 2: there's a bunch that's really interesting and noteworthy in this

798
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 2: New York Times Ciena poll of the different issues. First

799
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:15,279
Speaker 2: of all, immigration is his top issue. He's still underwater there.

800
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:17,160
Speaker 2: But then if you look at his worst issue, it's

801
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:19,960
Speaker 2: the case involving Kilmar Abrego Garcia, which I think is

802
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:22,719
Speaker 2: vindication to people such as myself who've been saying, no,

803
00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 2: you should be talking about this case because that is

804
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:28,000
Speaker 2: going to pull down all of his numbers on immigration,

805
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 2: which is his strongest issue. You want to go after

806
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:33,400
Speaker 2: his strength, et cetera. Putting that aside. Look at what

807
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 2: his next worst issues are the war between Russia and

808
00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:40,560
Speaker 2: Ukraine and foreign conflicts in general. And Ryan, I don't

809
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:43,400
Speaker 2: want to skip over that because I think when we

810
00:41:43,560 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 2: did our focus groups and talk to those AOC Trump

811
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 2: voters right after the election, almost all of them cited, Hey,

812
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:52,480
Speaker 2: I think he's going to be better for peace. I

813
00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:55,399
Speaker 2: think he's going to be better for ending wars than

814
00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:58,759
Speaker 2: Biden Harris. And now you know, and Trump makes this

815
00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 2: out landish promise, so I'm going to resolve the Russia

816
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:04,400
Speaker 2: Ukraine conflict in twenty four hours. Always preposterous, but you know,

817
00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:07,480
Speaker 2: he says it was such he repeated it so much

818
00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:09,399
Speaker 2: that I think a lot of people did feel like, okay,

819
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 2: maybe not twenty four hours, but he's going to be

820
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 2: able to bring this thing to a close. Obviously, the

821
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:17,040
Speaker 2: Gaza ceasefire completely collapsed. Now you're looking at just complete

822
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 2: you know, extermination campaign and starvation within Gaza. And so

823
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:23,880
Speaker 2: you know, that was another piece that I think is

824
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 2: really important as well. There was this preposterous framing of him,

825
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:29,759
Speaker 2: in my view, as being this like anti war peace

826
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:34,360
Speaker 2: candidate that truly won over you know, some chunk of

827
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 2: independent voters. And that piece has also just completely completely crumbled,

828
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:42,760
Speaker 2: and he has really nothing to show for foreign policy

829
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:43,879
Speaker 2: agenda at this point.

830
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,839
Speaker 4: Yeah, and Emily, before you answer that, Amir Tabone at

831
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 4: the at Ha Retz over the weekend had this really

832
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:53,520
Speaker 4: interesting column where he said there actually is a war

833
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:55,840
Speaker 4: that Trump can end with a tweet, and he's referencing

834
00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 4: this kind of really pathetic post on either Twitter or

835
00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:01,960
Speaker 4: through a social from Trump where he was like, Vladimir

836
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:04,719
Speaker 4: please stop, what are you doing? Like it was like

837
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:09,840
Speaker 4: just humiliating himself. If Trump did that for net Yahoo

838
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:15,880
Speaker 4: and said, this is what Tabona wrote was Bibe stop,

839
00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:19,160
Speaker 4: get the hostages out. Like if he did that, the

840
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:24,719
Speaker 4: next day, the bombing stops, the talks resume seriously, and

841
00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:28,200
Speaker 4: within days probably the hostages are out. Like there actually

842
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:32,280
Speaker 4: is a war that he can end if he chooses to. Instead,

843
00:43:32,360 --> 00:43:35,400
Speaker 4: he's not ending the one he's focused on and the

844
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:38,280
Speaker 4: one that he promised he would end, which is Israel's

845
00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 4: assault on Gaza. He ended it on the inauguration day,

846
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:45,839
Speaker 4: he got his little headline, and then six weeks eight

847
00:43:45,880 --> 00:43:48,920
Speaker 4: weeks later allowed Israel to start it up again. And

848
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 4: he's also saying that net Yahoo needs to be kind

849
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 4: to the people in Gaza. That was roughly his quote

850
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:58,920
Speaker 4: on Air Force one. Meanwhile, net Yaho is not allowing

851
00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 4: any food in, hasn't since March second, which if your

852
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 4: stated preference from as Trump is not the one that

853
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:09,880
Speaker 4: nen Yah was falling through on, doesn't that make you

854
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 4: look weaker than Joe Biden. Like Joe Biden when he

855
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 4: would tell them you got to start letting aid in,

856
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 4: they'd go from like, you know, three hundred trucks to

857
00:44:18,640 --> 00:44:20,719
Speaker 4: three hundred and fifty trucks, Like he could at least

858
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 4: move the needle. Right, Trump is claiming that he wants

859
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:26,520
Speaker 4: food to get into Israel, and nt Yah who's telling

860
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:27,239
Speaker 4: him to f off?

861
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:27,440
Speaker 1: Like?

862
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:30,319
Speaker 4: Is there any point at which this is embarrassing to him?

863
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:34,440
Speaker 1: It's because the people who are making the policy itself,

864
00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:38,480
Speaker 1: who are executing the policy itself, are not with Trump

865
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:42,520
Speaker 1: on those points about how Israeli speak kind to the

866
00:44:42,600 --> 00:44:45,239
Speaker 1: people in goss At. Trump, at the very least, I

867
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:47,239
Speaker 1: guess you could say, has like maybe more of a

868
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:51,319
Speaker 1: realist perspective than the Mike Huckabee. Huckabee, on his first

869
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 1: night as ambassador, posted a picture with Netsan Yahoo. I

870
00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:56,719
Speaker 1: mean Trump himself obviously posted on true social a couple

871
00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:58,720
Speaker 1: weeks that they are on the same side of every issue.

872
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:00,799
Speaker 1: He and Nen Yahoo after they had a phone call.

873
00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 1: But you know, this was everything we were talking about

874
00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:07,279
Speaker 1: with Dan Caldwell being purged from the Pentagon from Pete

875
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:12,960
Speaker 1: Heigsa's circles. Like, yes, that sort of exasperation with the

876
00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:19,040
Speaker 1: israel Hawks in the Republican Party is real in Trump circles,

877
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:22,400
Speaker 1: but it's not nearly as powerful as the sort of

878
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:26,239
Speaker 1: holdovers the you know, policy or the build up the

879
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:31,160
Speaker 1: residue of decades and decades of GOP bear hug Israel,

880
00:45:31,640 --> 00:45:34,399
Speaker 1: bear hugging of Israel at every turn. And so even

881
00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:37,480
Speaker 1: if Trump, as you were saying that, if Trump posted

882
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:40,400
Speaker 1: just bb stop in all caps like he did to putin,

883
00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 1: I was imagining him being subverted, Like what would happen

884
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:48,239
Speaker 1: immediately after he sent that, true social people would people

885
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:50,319
Speaker 1: who are in the administration doing sort of like daily

886
00:45:50,400 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 1: policy would immediately if he even did that hypothetically, would

887
00:45:54,719 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 1: immediately be trying to find ways to support Netsan Yahu

888
00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:03,040
Speaker 1: that are like under the radar. So that's not conspiratorial,

889
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:06,480
Speaker 1: It's just that there's an internal war between people who

890
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:09,359
Speaker 1: thought like even people here in DC who look at

891
00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:11,719
Speaker 1: Donald Trump and say, well, maybe this is the best

892
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:14,880
Speaker 1: chance to sort of end the dead foreign policy consensus

893
00:46:14,920 --> 00:46:19,120
Speaker 1: in a good way. You know, they're constantly being their

894
00:46:19,120 --> 00:46:21,880
Speaker 1: efforts are constantly being like frustrated and thwarted by the

895
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:25,960
Speaker 1: majority of people in professional Washington foreign policy circles who

896
00:46:26,160 --> 00:46:28,759
Speaker 1: have learned that they can you know, get continue to

897
00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 1: have jobs by saying nice things about Donald Trump. I'm

898
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:33,359
Speaker 1: thinking specifically, like a Mike Waltz here, by the way,

899
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:37,399
Speaker 1: and be in positions of power, and then they can.

900
00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:39,319
Speaker 1: All they had to do was like sort of take

901
00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:42,560
Speaker 1: that pill of swallow the pill of take the medicine

902
00:46:42,719 --> 00:46:45,040
Speaker 1: of saying, oh, yeah, Donald Trump is great, make America

903
00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 1: great again. So yeah, it does look weak, It absolutely

904
00:46:49,480 --> 00:46:52,480
Speaker 1: looks weak, but it doesn't really get framed that way

905
00:46:52,600 --> 00:46:53,400
Speaker 1: among his supporters.

906
00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:57,160
Speaker 2: It also imperils the negotiations with Iran as well. So

907
00:46:57,320 --> 00:46:59,359
Speaker 2: I mean there's you know, the coddling of Israel has

908
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:03,279
Speaker 2: reverberating impacts that don't just just stay limited to you know,

909
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:06,400
Speaker 2: the horrors that are unfolding in Gaza with our taxpayer dollars,

910
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 2: which is increasingly wildly unpopular with almost the entire population,

911
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:14,440
Speaker 2: with like the exception of boomer Republicans. Effectively, at this point,

912
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:16,880
Speaker 2: the whole nation has turned on this, you know, on

913
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:20,920
Speaker 2: this project of perpetual war crimes. I do want to

914
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:23,440
Speaker 2: touch on immigration again really quickly, just because we have

915
00:47:23,520 --> 00:47:27,239
Speaker 2: some really interesting numbers there that show, you know, people

916
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 2: can evaluate how things are going and change their minds.

917
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:33,880
Speaker 2: On the democratic side, in particular, there seems to be

918
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 2: this assumption that, like, well, if a pole says people

919
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:37,920
Speaker 2: think this, that's it.

920
00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:39,960
Speaker 5: There's no change in their minds. It's over.

921
00:47:40,120 --> 00:47:41,960
Speaker 2: We better just not talk about that topic, or we

922
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:45,160
Speaker 2: better totally you know, adopt a different view on that topic,

923
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:47,840
Speaker 2: et cetera. And immigration is like the primary case in point.

924
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:51,040
Speaker 2: Take a look at A nine, So this is just

925
00:47:51,440 --> 00:47:55,040
Speaker 2: on how people feel about whether or not immigrants benefit

926
00:47:55,120 --> 00:47:59,040
Speaker 2: the population, and you can see this huge surge in

927
00:47:59,120 --> 00:48:02,520
Speaker 2: the number of people who now say immigrants make the

928
00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:06,680
Speaker 2: country better off, and a dramatic decline in those who

929
00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:10,719
Speaker 2: say that immigrant immigrants make the country worse off, and

930
00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:13,279
Speaker 2: relatively flat on the ones that say it doesn't make

931
00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:15,440
Speaker 2: much of a difference. If you go back and look

932
00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:18,279
Speaker 2: at the numbers on immigration during Trump one point zero,

933
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:21,040
Speaker 2: you have almost never in history had a more pro

934
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:24,840
Speaker 2: immigrant population than we did at that time, because they

935
00:48:24,880 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 2: were looking at what Trump was doing and they were saying,

936
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:29,239
Speaker 2: I don't support this, I don't like this, And that's

937
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:31,919
Speaker 2: how you end up with Democrats, you know, reading those

938
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:35,400
Speaker 2: polls and then you know, doing their high school Spanish

939
00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:38,719
Speaker 2: at the debates and you know, positioning themselves in that way.

940
00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:42,279
Speaker 2: So we're seeing a similar radical shift in terms of

941
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 2: people's views on immigration. And go ahead and put a

942
00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:47,840
Speaker 2: ten up on the screen. You can see Independence in particular,

943
00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:53,440
Speaker 2: who have shifted quite dramatically. The fifty six percent overall

944
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:56,480
Speaker 2: disapprove of Trump's handling of the issue. Sixty two percent

945
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:59,759
Speaker 2: of Independence opposed removing foreign students, fifty two percent pose

946
00:49:00,000 --> 00:49:02,239
Speaker 2: additions to El Salvador. I would personally like that number

947
00:49:02,239 --> 00:49:04,239
Speaker 2: to be a lot higher than that, but anyway, and

948
00:49:04,480 --> 00:49:10,120
Speaker 2: only twenty one percent Abrego Garcia left in this prison.

949
00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:14,960
Speaker 2: So you know, to me, this was predictable that you know,

950
00:49:15,160 --> 00:49:17,800
Speaker 2: in theory, people say, yeah, okay, let's you know, Trump's

951
00:49:17,800 --> 00:49:19,719
Speaker 2: saying these people are all criminals. Yes, let's get the

952
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:22,279
Speaker 2: criminals down, et cetera. When you're actually met with the

953
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 2: reality of, oh, these are human beings who you know,

954
00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:30,480
Speaker 2: many times they are not the caricature that they've been

955
00:49:30,640 --> 00:49:32,800
Speaker 2: made out to be. And then you also have the

956
00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:37,160
Speaker 2: Trump administration, you know, engaging in these outrageous tactics which

957
00:49:37,440 --> 00:49:42,719
Speaker 2: they themselves you'll clearly paint a picture of, Hey, today

958
00:49:42,760 --> 00:49:45,719
Speaker 2: it's kill mar Abrego Garcia, tomorrow can be you. We

959
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:49,000
Speaker 2: want to go after the homegrowns next. So immediately they're

960
00:49:49,080 --> 00:49:51,399
Speaker 2: helping to make the connection between the loss of rights

961
00:49:51,440 --> 00:49:53,800
Speaker 2: for this immigrant population and the loss of rights for

962
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:57,120
Speaker 2: the entire population. You know, it's not surprising to me

963
00:49:57,239 --> 00:50:01,200
Speaker 2: to see that immigration, even on the issue of immigration,

964
00:50:01,280 --> 00:50:04,160
Speaker 2: he's now underwater and independence are really flipping their views

965
00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:04,719
Speaker 2: in real time.

966
00:50:05,719 --> 00:50:07,360
Speaker 1: No, it not surprising, and gets to a point that

967
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 1: you made earlier, which is that they don't even necessarily

968
00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:14,320
Speaker 1: trust public opinion anymore because they saw that happen in

969
00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:17,320
Speaker 1: the first term and then saw him get re elected

970
00:50:18,080 --> 00:50:23,520
Speaker 1: several years later because the Biden administration's policies were so unpopular.

971
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:26,840
Speaker 1: And again you can make the mistake of misreading that

972
00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:31,320
Speaker 1: mandate as an embrace of your policy rather than a

973
00:50:31,440 --> 00:50:35,520
Speaker 1: rejection of your predecessor's policy. And I think there's some

974
00:50:35,680 --> 00:50:37,560
Speaker 1: of that happening. And the other part of it is

975
00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:40,719
Speaker 1: that because they feel they have the mandate, they are

976
00:50:41,480 --> 00:50:45,840
Speaker 1: sort of isolating themselves or insulating themselves from even critics

977
00:50:45,920 --> 00:50:48,080
Speaker 1: on the right who say, you're going to hurt your

978
00:50:48,120 --> 00:50:51,760
Speaker 1: ability to do quote unquote mass deportations if you're focusing

979
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:55,360
Speaker 1: on these cases where you actually made a mistake in

980
00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:59,160
Speaker 1: doubling down. In the case of kilmar Abrego Garcia, obviously

981
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:01,440
Speaker 1: the man who admitted the Trump administration made a mistake

982
00:51:01,680 --> 00:51:04,719
Speaker 1: was fired, but the administration doubled down on it and

983
00:51:04,800 --> 00:51:08,279
Speaker 1: didn't concede that there was any error whatsoever, and it

984
00:51:08,360 --> 00:51:11,880
Speaker 1: became a public spectacle that resulted in public opinion shifting,

985
00:51:12,040 --> 00:51:14,680
Speaker 1: just as you showed, Crystal, And so you know, it's

986
00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:19,160
Speaker 1: sort of from both sides. There's this criticism that people,

987
00:51:19,200 --> 00:51:22,160
Speaker 1: because of those litmus tests in the administration are basically

988
00:51:22,200 --> 00:51:26,080
Speaker 1: insulated from and it will not make their policies more popular,

989
00:51:26,160 --> 00:51:26,680
Speaker 1: that's for sure.

990
00:51:27,200 --> 00:51:29,720
Speaker 4: I think it's Stephen Miller. I think the public sees

991
00:51:29,719 --> 00:51:33,520
Speaker 4: Stephen Miller on TV and they're like, whatever that guy's for.

992
00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:36,280
Speaker 5: On against He is a relatively repulsive.

993
00:51:36,080 --> 00:51:39,840
Speaker 4: And he's single handedly driving in entire country's views on immigration.

994
00:51:40,000 --> 00:51:41,680
Speaker 4: He fades and people are like, yeah, I don't like

995
00:51:41,719 --> 00:51:44,120
Speaker 4: immigrants anymore. He comes back and like, God, I love.

996
00:51:44,040 --> 00:51:48,440
Speaker 2: Immigrants, like immigrants or this dude, I'm with the immigrants

997
00:51:48,560 --> 00:51:51,160
Speaker 2: team immigrant all day long. I mean, he just reads

998
00:51:51,760 --> 00:51:53,200
Speaker 2: he is an extremist.

999
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:54,880
Speaker 4: Like he is. Trump thinks he's an extremists. There's that

1000
00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:57,680
Speaker 4: amazing anecdote where he's making fun of Miller for being

1001
00:51:57,719 --> 00:51:59,640
Speaker 4: a racist, saying that, like, if it was up to you,

1002
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:01,719
Speaker 4: Steve Than, you know, everyone in this country would look

1003
00:52:01,760 --> 00:52:02,360
Speaker 4: exactly like you.

1004
00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:03,160
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1005
00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:04,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, two racist for Trump.

1006
00:52:05,080 --> 00:52:07,920
Speaker 5: I mean that which relates to too races because he's

1007
00:52:07,920 --> 00:52:09,760
Speaker 5: happy to have around it right exactly.

1008
00:52:09,880 --> 00:52:12,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm happy to give him control of the entire portfolio.

1009
00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:15,800
Speaker 2: And it relates to you know, they've been tracking the

1010
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:19,320
Speaker 2: stock market performance when it's Peter Navarro and Howard Lutnik,

1011
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:20,600
Speaker 2: whose name is mentioned more in.

1012
00:52:20,600 --> 00:52:22,240
Speaker 5: The news versus Scott Pasant.

1013
00:52:22,760 --> 00:52:25,000
Speaker 2: So Ryan, you may have you may be onto something

1014
00:52:25,080 --> 00:52:27,760
Speaker 2: there in terms of the spokespeople for the Trump policies.

1015
00:52:28,520 --> 00:52:31,040
Speaker 5: And thank you so much for joining us this morning.

1016
00:52:31,120 --> 00:52:33,439
Speaker 2: We appreciate you and I'm great to have your views

1017
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:40,759
Speaker 2: on this first very very consequential, very fast paced momentous it.

1018
00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:43,839
Speaker 2: We'll certainly say extraordinary first hundred days of this administration.

1019
00:52:44,239 --> 00:52:45,920
Speaker 1: Thanks for having me, guys, Yeah, our pleasure.

1020
00:52:48,840 --> 00:52:51,799
Speaker 2: We now have the Trump trade war officially showing up

1021
00:52:51,920 --> 00:52:55,680
Speaker 2: in numbers in terms of shipping and news media starting

1022
00:52:55,719 --> 00:52:58,600
Speaker 2: to cover it. Let's take a listen to MSNBC talking

1023
00:52:58,680 --> 00:53:01,719
Speaker 2: about a fifty percent your over your drop at West

1024
00:53:01,800 --> 00:53:02,320
Speaker 2: Coast Ports.

1025
00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:06,880
Speaker 10: You are looking at a forty four percent decrease in

1026
00:53:07,080 --> 00:53:12,320
Speaker 10: vessels year over year coming in. And what's really key here, Alex,

1027
00:53:12,400 --> 00:53:14,600
Speaker 10: are the people that move the containers.

1028
00:53:15,120 --> 00:53:16,560
Speaker 5: You need people to move trade.

1029
00:53:17,040 --> 00:53:20,600
Speaker 10: If you have forty percent less containers coming in, that

1030
00:53:20,800 --> 00:53:25,160
Speaker 10: is going to impact the people that are the truckers,

1031
00:53:25,520 --> 00:53:29,680
Speaker 10: the railroads, the warehousing. This is more than just US

1032
00:53:29,800 --> 00:53:33,280
Speaker 10: consuming and US bringing in orders. There's an entire supply

1033
00:53:33,440 --> 00:53:36,640
Speaker 10: chain here that is connected to jobs. And so the

1034
00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:40,400
Speaker 10: longer this goes, Alex, We're going to see some significant

1035
00:53:40,440 --> 00:53:44,360
Speaker 10: impact here in terms of in terms of employment.

1036
00:53:44,480 --> 00:53:47,520
Speaker 5: In fact, the Port of Oakland, which is a huge, huge.

1037
00:53:47,960 --> 00:53:51,200
Speaker 10: Port that relies on both imports and exports, are very

1038
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:54,239
Speaker 10: very balanced. They've got a fifty to fifty split. They

1039
00:53:54,360 --> 00:53:59,040
Speaker 10: already started warning on Friday about the detriment when it comes.

1040
00:53:58,880 --> 00:54:02,160
Speaker 9: To jobs and the expos are with this, even if

1041
00:54:02,200 --> 00:54:05,319
Speaker 9: a deal is reached soon, are we for at least

1042
00:54:05,400 --> 00:54:06,880
Speaker 9: some troubling times ahead.

1043
00:54:07,840 --> 00:54:08,719
Speaker 4: I believe we are.

1044
00:54:08,960 --> 00:54:11,600
Speaker 10: And the reason why is that trade takes time to

1045
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:15,000
Speaker 10: move and you also have to order it. The fact

1046
00:54:15,080 --> 00:54:19,200
Speaker 10: that we've had a pause in all of these manufacturing plants.

1047
00:54:19,280 --> 00:54:21,359
Speaker 10: I have had sources tell me in China that there

1048
00:54:21,400 --> 00:54:24,840
Speaker 10: are factories that are literally shut down because they're not

1049
00:54:24,960 --> 00:54:27,800
Speaker 10: making any products for the United States. So if you

1050
00:54:27,840 --> 00:54:31,239
Speaker 10: think about it, remember with COVID, everything shut down and

1051
00:54:31,320 --> 00:54:34,520
Speaker 10: then everything ramped back up. And so what happens is

1052
00:54:35,040 --> 00:54:37,279
Speaker 10: once you hit that on pause button, it's going to

1053
00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:39,560
Speaker 10: be that rush to make the materials and then get

1054
00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:42,840
Speaker 10: the product on the vessels and back here, which causes

1055
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:44,760
Speaker 10: congestion and raises freight prices.

1056
00:54:45,239 --> 00:54:47,439
Speaker 2: And the West Coast ports are not only gigantic, they're

1057
00:54:47,440 --> 00:54:50,400
Speaker 2: also the first places where these massive disruptions would show up.

1058
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:52,400
Speaker 2: I think we all got a real lesson in supply

1059
00:54:52,600 --> 00:54:56,399
Speaker 2: chain logistics during COVID, And how you know, once these

1060
00:54:56,480 --> 00:54:57,680
Speaker 2: things start.

1061
00:54:57,520 --> 00:55:00,640
Speaker 4: To unravel, apparently not all of us, not all.

1062
00:55:00,600 --> 00:55:03,520
Speaker 2: Of us, There are cascading effects that you cannot just

1063
00:55:03,560 --> 00:55:06,239
Speaker 2: snap your fingers and things go back to normal, even

1064
00:55:06,280 --> 00:55:09,200
Speaker 2: if Trump today comes down and says, guess what trade

1065
00:55:09,239 --> 00:55:11,440
Speaker 2: war over, We're back to, you know, wherever the previous

1066
00:55:11,480 --> 00:55:13,920
Speaker 2: tariffs were with regard to China. If you could put

1067
00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:15,600
Speaker 2: B two up on the screen, because I thought this

1068
00:55:15,680 --> 00:55:20,000
Speaker 2: was a remarkable visible representation of just how screwed the

1069
00:55:20,080 --> 00:55:21,399
Speaker 2: supply chain is at this point.

1070
00:55:21,800 --> 00:55:23,160
Speaker 1: So this is a map.

1071
00:55:23,239 --> 00:55:25,000
Speaker 2: You can see China on one side, you can see

1072
00:55:25,160 --> 00:55:27,680
Speaker 2: la on the other side, and the blue dots are

1073
00:55:27,880 --> 00:55:30,560
Speaker 2: all of the ships. Now normally there should be you know,

1074
00:55:30,800 --> 00:55:35,000
Speaker 2: roughly even distribution across this map, and you can see

1075
00:55:35,600 --> 00:55:39,600
Speaker 2: because so many companies in the US that we're planning

1076
00:55:39,640 --> 00:55:43,520
Speaker 2: on importing goods from China said I can't pay this

1077
00:55:43,719 --> 00:55:46,720
Speaker 2: one hundred and forty five percent tariff. This is an impossibility.

1078
00:55:47,239 --> 00:55:50,040
Speaker 2: You have all of these ships in this cargo just

1079
00:55:50,239 --> 00:55:54,560
Speaker 2: stuck sitting in China right now. And you know that's

1080
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:58,560
Speaker 2: the state of affairs that Walmart and Home Depot were

1081
00:55:58,800 --> 00:56:02,919
Speaker 2: warning Trump a bat out that hey, we are weeks away,

1082
00:56:03,239 --> 00:56:06,440
Speaker 2: days away from starting to have our shelves be light,

1083
00:56:06,600 --> 00:56:08,680
Speaker 2: starting to have things that are just on of stock.

1084
00:56:09,080 --> 00:56:12,160
Speaker 2: And also many people have been taking you, Ryan b

1085
00:56:12,280 --> 00:56:14,239
Speaker 2: one Bee, guys, put this up on the screen. We

1086
00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:19,040
Speaker 2: are also now officially the point where San, the low

1087
00:56:19,120 --> 00:56:25,360
Speaker 2: cost retailer that many Americans appreciate, is massively hiking their prices,

1088
00:56:25,560 --> 00:56:29,000
Speaker 2: so up to three hundred and seventy seven percent price

1089
00:56:29,120 --> 00:56:32,759
Speaker 2: hikes over at Shan. You know, not everything is at

1090
00:56:32,800 --> 00:56:35,400
Speaker 2: that level, but the thick kitchen cleaning towels have not

1091
00:56:35,640 --> 00:56:38,160
Speaker 2: now gone up from a dollar twenty eight, which is unbelievable.

1092
00:56:38,160 --> 00:56:41,360
Speaker 2: They cost that to six dollars and ten cents whatever.

1093
00:56:41,880 --> 00:56:44,400
Speaker 2: Blind's air conditioning gap brush that's gone up two hundred

1094
00:56:44,400 --> 00:56:49,239
Speaker 2: and nineteen percent. So the price hikes are starting to hit.

1095
00:56:49,840 --> 00:56:52,160
Speaker 2: I can tell you I personally have seen prices jump

1096
00:56:52,280 --> 00:56:54,640
Speaker 2: at Amazon just over the past couple of weeks as well.

1097
00:56:54,680 --> 00:56:56,880
Speaker 2: And I know there were reports Ryan about Amazon sellers

1098
00:56:56,960 --> 00:56:58,759
Speaker 2: starting to take into account these price hikes.

1099
00:56:59,200 --> 00:57:02,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, and the risk for the world is that all

1100
00:57:02,520 --> 00:57:04,839
Speaker 4: of those ships that you saw kind of hanging out

1101
00:57:04,880 --> 00:57:07,600
Speaker 4: off the Chinese coast, they got to go somewhere at

1102
00:57:07,640 --> 00:57:13,480
Speaker 4: some point, and so there there other countries are afraid

1103
00:57:13,560 --> 00:57:15,120
Speaker 4: that now there's going to be a bunch of Chinese

1104
00:57:15,200 --> 00:57:18,000
Speaker 4: dumping Like okay, well we made this stuff, it's sitting

1105
00:57:18,040 --> 00:57:20,480
Speaker 4: the ship, can't sell it to the United States because

1106
00:57:20,920 --> 00:57:24,439
Speaker 4: they're doing their thing. You know, who wants a towel

1107
00:57:24,520 --> 00:57:27,440
Speaker 4: for you know, two dollars and Columbia to be like,

1108
00:57:27,440 --> 00:57:29,320
Speaker 4: all right, we'll take you know, a million towels for

1109
00:57:29,400 --> 00:57:32,560
Speaker 4: two dollars or whatever, uh or a Columbia company and

1110
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:35,080
Speaker 4: then the company in Columbia that makes the towels they

1111
00:57:35,160 --> 00:57:38,160
Speaker 4: go under. So like that, there's a there's a risk.

1112
00:57:39,240 --> 00:57:43,160
Speaker 4: Everybody's kind of holding their breath over like how this

1113
00:57:43,360 --> 00:57:47,440
Speaker 4: is how this is going to play out. Meanwhile, this

1114
00:57:48,120 --> 00:57:51,440
Speaker 4: this Ken Griffin, you know, Trump supporting Ken Griffin. This

1115
00:57:51,600 --> 00:57:54,240
Speaker 4: answer that he gave at a at a recent conference,

1116
00:57:54,640 --> 00:57:58,280
Speaker 4: I thought kind of nailed the problem that the that

1117
00:57:58,400 --> 00:58:01,040
Speaker 4: the US what do you what would you call it?

1118
00:58:01,160 --> 00:58:06,120
Speaker 4: The US political economy faces coming out of this, because

1119
00:58:06,600 --> 00:58:09,200
Speaker 4: the thing that really nailed Biden, like you said, was

1120
00:58:09,720 --> 00:58:14,919
Speaker 4: inflation from when the supply chains restarted, because you can't

1121
00:58:15,560 --> 00:58:17,880
Speaker 4: because of all of the bankruptcies and all of the clogging.

1122
00:58:18,480 --> 00:58:22,439
Speaker 4: It takes a very long time for that to start

1123
00:58:22,520 --> 00:58:31,640
Speaker 4: running smoothly again. Now you've also implicated treasury, treasury bonds

1124
00:58:31,840 --> 00:58:36,360
Speaker 4: and the dollar, So what is that going to do when, if,

1125
00:58:36,400 --> 00:58:39,520
Speaker 4: and when that starts flowing again, let's roll Griffin.

1126
00:58:40,080 --> 00:58:43,800
Speaker 5: Markets are, you know, obviously not liking what they're hearing.

1127
00:58:44,160 --> 00:58:50,400
Speaker 2: Treasuries in particular have seen a lot of volatility and worries.

1128
00:58:50,120 --> 00:58:54,040
Speaker 5: About dysfunction in the market. What is that doing to

1129
00:58:54,160 --> 00:58:55,080
Speaker 5: the American brand?

1130
00:58:55,200 --> 00:58:59,560
Speaker 11: Well, okay, you actually picked exactly the right word. The

1131
00:58:59,600 --> 00:59:04,560
Speaker 11: America can brand, right. The United States was more than

1132
00:59:04,680 --> 00:59:07,520
Speaker 11: just a nation. It's a brand. It's a universal brand,

1133
00:59:08,120 --> 00:59:12,200
Speaker 11: whether it's our culture, our financial strength, our military strength.

1134
00:59:12,440 --> 00:59:14,800
Speaker 11: America rose beyond just being a country.

1135
00:59:15,200 --> 00:59:16,000
Speaker 8: It was like an.

1136
00:59:15,960 --> 00:59:19,720
Speaker 11: Aspiration for most of the world. And we're eroding that

1137
00:59:19,880 --> 00:59:24,200
Speaker 11: brand right now. And if you think of your behavior

1138
00:59:24,200 --> 00:59:26,560
Speaker 11: as a consumer, how many times do you buy a

1139
00:59:26,640 --> 00:59:29,120
Speaker 11: product with a brand on it because you trust that brand.

1140
00:59:30,120 --> 00:59:32,560
Speaker 11: You know you could buy like a similar dress with

1141
00:59:32,680 --> 00:59:34,840
Speaker 11: no name for less money. But you want the dress

1142
00:59:34,880 --> 00:59:36,280
Speaker 11: that you think is going to not fall apart in

1143
00:59:36,360 --> 00:59:38,640
Speaker 11: two weeks. You want the handbag that you think is

1144
00:59:38,680 --> 00:59:41,560
Speaker 11: well made. You want the television that you know that

1145
00:59:41,640 --> 00:59:43,200
Speaker 11: when you turn it on, it's going to work perfectly.

1146
00:59:44,920 --> 00:59:46,560
Speaker 11: You want the car that when you turn the engine on,

1147
00:59:46,640 --> 00:59:49,440
Speaker 11: it's going to run and when it comes to somebody management.

1148
00:59:49,480 --> 00:59:53,760
Speaker 11: For example, there are many great American institutions who's the

1149
00:59:53,880 --> 00:59:56,439
Speaker 11: power of their brand, but they will deliver a fair

1150
00:59:56,560 --> 00:59:59,080
Speaker 11: service at a fair price that they'll do well by

1151
00:59:59,080 --> 01:00:01,800
Speaker 11: their investors and put their investors' interest first. Whether it's

1152
01:00:01,800 --> 01:00:05,000
Speaker 11: a Black Rock or Fidelity. These are global brands of

1153
01:00:05,080 --> 01:00:09,720
Speaker 11: immen's power. But in the financial markets, no brand compared

1154
01:00:09,760 --> 01:00:12,800
Speaker 11: to the brand of the US treasuries US treasure market,

1155
01:00:12,880 --> 01:00:15,240
Speaker 11: the strength of the US dollar and the strength the

1156
01:00:15,440 --> 01:00:19,800
Speaker 11: credit worthiness of US treasuries, no brand came close. We

1157
01:00:20,120 --> 01:00:25,120
Speaker 11: put that brand at risk, and as you and I

1158
01:00:25,320 --> 01:00:30,880
Speaker 11: both know, it can take a very long time, very

1159
01:00:30,960 --> 01:00:33,560
Speaker 11: long time to remove the tarnish on a brand.

1160
01:00:34,160 --> 01:00:36,560
Speaker 4: And the US being the kind of reserve currency and

1161
01:00:37,520 --> 01:00:40,320
Speaker 4: this kind of global empire has a lot of downsides,

1162
01:00:40,360 --> 01:00:43,080
Speaker 4: also has upsides for Americans that you can imagine a

1163
01:00:43,160 --> 01:00:47,400
Speaker 4: world in which the strength that comes from that could

1164
01:00:47,440 --> 01:00:51,640
Speaker 4: be the basis for reform and revitalizing the country. Instead,

1165
01:00:51,640 --> 01:00:53,400
Speaker 4: you're kind of getting rid of it without replacing it

1166
01:00:53,480 --> 01:00:59,600
Speaker 4: with anything else, right, and also destroying tourism like just

1167
01:01:00,680 --> 01:01:04,479
Speaker 4: which is you know, nine plus percent of GDP, which

1168
01:01:04,560 --> 01:01:06,320
Speaker 4: is just an absolutely huge number.

1169
01:01:06,080 --> 01:01:08,680
Speaker 2: And much more significant for certain places many of the

1170
01:01:08,760 --> 01:01:11,480
Speaker 2: Red states, like Florida and the Gulf Coast in particular.

1171
01:01:11,640 --> 01:01:15,040
Speaker 4: That is like reliving twenty ten and twenty eleven. Yeah,

1172
01:01:15,080 --> 01:01:18,520
Speaker 4: which tiktoks about that, and for no reason, Like the

1173
01:01:18,560 --> 01:01:21,400
Speaker 4: amount of pain that ripped through Vegas in the wake

1174
01:01:21,440 --> 01:01:24,640
Speaker 4: of the financial crisis is hard to bear and to

1175
01:01:24,800 --> 01:01:30,160
Speaker 4: see it now happening for no reason, just just because, Yeah,

1176
01:01:30,360 --> 01:01:31,200
Speaker 4: it's hard.

1177
01:01:31,040 --> 01:01:34,360
Speaker 2: To watch and was part of a shift to the

1178
01:01:34,480 --> 01:01:39,000
Speaker 2: right in Nevada because of the carnage from COVID and

1179
01:01:39,160 --> 01:01:42,120
Speaker 2: the you know, the perception of democratic handling of that.

1180
01:01:42,720 --> 01:01:44,600
Speaker 2: And you know, in spite of the fact that you

1181
01:01:44,680 --> 01:01:48,880
Speaker 2: have very strong union organization there, you know, you still

1182
01:01:48,960 --> 01:01:52,120
Speaker 2: saw significant shift to the right in Nevada as a

1183
01:01:52,200 --> 01:01:56,480
Speaker 2: consequence of you know, the shutdowns and the COVID fallout.

1184
01:01:57,480 --> 01:01:59,960
Speaker 2: So you know, you can only imagine with this where

1185
01:02:00,120 --> 01:02:02,360
Speaker 2: the blame is one hundred percent with Donald Trump, Like

1186
01:02:02,360 --> 01:02:06,000
Speaker 2: there's no argument otherwise what the fallout could be.

1187
01:02:06,360 --> 01:02:08,680
Speaker 4: That's a good point. They suffered through the COVID lockdowns,

1188
01:02:08,760 --> 01:02:11,960
Speaker 4: So first they suffered through financial crisis and yeah, real

1189
01:02:12,040 --> 01:02:12,680
Speaker 4: estate collapsed.

1190
01:02:12,720 --> 01:02:13,400
Speaker 1: Oh that was brutal.

1191
01:02:13,560 --> 01:02:15,720
Speaker 4: Then a nice recovery for a while, and then they

1192
01:02:15,800 --> 01:02:18,040
Speaker 4: got a couple of good years and then whacked by COVID.

1193
01:02:18,400 --> 01:02:20,600
Speaker 4: Then everybody's coming back to Vegas and partying and things

1194
01:02:20,680 --> 01:02:23,240
Speaker 4: are looking good and then boom, yepy wat shut down.

1195
01:02:23,480 --> 01:02:25,840
Speaker 2: You know, the Ken Griffin things could require a longer

1196
01:02:25,960 --> 01:02:28,160
Speaker 2: exploration that maybe we don't want to get into you today.

1197
01:02:28,200 --> 01:02:30,520
Speaker 2: But as he's talking about America as a brand, I'm

1198
01:02:30,600 --> 01:02:33,400
Speaker 2: just thinking, like many of the people on the Trump

1199
01:02:33,480 --> 01:02:36,520
Speaker 2: team that you know he supported and he backs Republicans

1200
01:02:36,560 --> 01:02:39,000
Speaker 2: to the tune of many millions of dollars, they don't

1201
01:02:39,040 --> 01:02:42,320
Speaker 2: agree with that. Like Steven Miller sees America as blood

1202
01:02:42,320 --> 01:02:45,200
Speaker 2: and soil, right, so they don't see America as a

1203
01:02:45,240 --> 01:02:47,560
Speaker 2: quote unquote brand. And you know, I think there is

1204
01:02:47,640 --> 01:02:50,880
Speaker 2: something to be said for a critique of the America

1205
01:02:51,080 --> 01:02:54,600
Speaker 2: is a brand posture. But I also think that you know,

1206
01:02:54,720 --> 01:02:57,360
Speaker 2: his comments about the way that that branding and no

1207
01:02:57,360 --> 01:03:00,200
Speaker 2: one would understand this better than Donald Trump himself, that

1208
01:03:00,280 --> 01:03:02,800
Speaker 2: that branding impacts. You know, our status is the global

1209
01:03:02,840 --> 01:03:05,680
Speaker 2: reserve currency and the flight to safety to treasury bonds,

1210
01:03:05,680 --> 01:03:08,000
Speaker 2: et cetera. You know, it is quite paramount. So the

1211
01:03:08,080 --> 01:03:10,480
Speaker 2: way that the financial system is structured right now, and

1212
01:03:10,560 --> 01:03:13,040
Speaker 2: so if you are going to disrupt that and move

1213
01:03:13,120 --> 01:03:15,439
Speaker 2: to something else. You better have a damn good plan.

1214
01:03:15,720 --> 01:03:18,040
Speaker 2: If there's one thing that we have definitely learned, there

1215
01:03:18,160 --> 01:03:19,440
Speaker 2: was no damn good plan here.

1216
01:03:19,800 --> 01:03:20,560
Speaker 5: There was barely a plan.

1217
01:03:20,640 --> 01:03:23,160
Speaker 2: I mean, they were crafting that chart using chat GPT

1218
01:03:23,320 --> 01:03:25,480
Speaker 2: or however they decided to do it leading up to

1219
01:03:25,560 --> 01:03:29,160
Speaker 2: the hours before it's revealed and turns the entire global

1220
01:03:29,320 --> 01:03:32,400
Speaker 2: you know, economic system utterly on its head. We got

1221
01:03:32,440 --> 01:03:34,440
Speaker 2: a couple more pieces here that just show, you know,

1222
01:03:34,520 --> 01:03:37,400
Speaker 2: the beginnings of the economic fallout. We've got B five

1223
01:03:37,520 --> 01:03:42,200
Speaker 2: an ill Intel plant has now been delayed years and

1224
01:03:42,600 --> 01:03:45,240
Speaker 2: you know, at the cost of quite a number of jobs,

1225
01:03:45,320 --> 01:03:48,320
Speaker 2: is now delayed until twenty thirty one. And in part

1226
01:03:48,440 --> 01:03:51,880
Speaker 2: the uncertainty over the tariffs is is playing into this.

1227
01:03:52,320 --> 01:03:55,360
Speaker 2: We also something that Sager had brought up before is,

1228
01:03:55,480 --> 01:03:57,800
Speaker 2: you know, some of these specific parts of our economy

1229
01:03:58,240 --> 01:04:01,040
Speaker 2: are ultra ultra dependent on China.

1230
01:04:01,200 --> 01:04:03,560
Speaker 5: The you know, for new parents buying.

1231
01:04:03,400 --> 01:04:07,160
Speaker 2: Strollers, like basically every stroller is ninety eight percent or

1232
01:04:07,200 --> 01:04:10,720
Speaker 2: something made in China. Many other you know goods that

1233
01:04:10,800 --> 01:04:13,480
Speaker 2: you sort of essentially have to buy when you are

1234
01:04:13,800 --> 01:04:14,240
Speaker 2: bringing a.

1235
01:04:14,280 --> 01:04:16,920
Speaker 5: Child into this world, and toys.

1236
01:04:17,000 --> 01:04:20,000
Speaker 2: Are disproportionately made in China as well, be six up

1237
01:04:20,080 --> 01:04:24,440
Speaker 2: on the screen. So these are impacts already on the

1238
01:04:24,600 --> 01:04:27,680
Speaker 2: US toy industry, and you have to think, like you know,

1239
01:04:28,000 --> 01:04:30,840
Speaker 2: for in our terms, Christmas is a long way off.

1240
01:04:31,280 --> 01:04:34,360
Speaker 2: If you are a toy importer, if you're a toy store,

1241
01:04:34,840 --> 01:04:37,080
Speaker 2: you're thinking about this and you're planning for it now.

1242
01:04:37,560 --> 01:04:41,760
Speaker 2: You already have some eighty to almost ninety percent of

1243
01:04:41,880 --> 01:04:45,960
Speaker 2: toy companies that are delaying orders. You got sixty four

1244
01:04:46,000 --> 01:04:48,280
Speaker 2: percent of small toy companies and eighty percent of mid

1245
01:04:48,360 --> 01:04:51,400
Speaker 2: sized toy companies canceling orders. And you have almost half

1246
01:04:51,760 --> 01:04:54,680
Speaker 2: that say ran they will go out of business in

1247
01:04:54,840 --> 01:04:58,040
Speaker 2: weeks or months, Yeah, weeks or n right.

1248
01:04:58,080 --> 01:05:00,120
Speaker 4: And that they and a lot of them are are

1249
01:05:00,200 --> 01:05:03,000
Speaker 4: going out of business as we speak. China, meanwhile, has

1250
01:05:03,000 --> 01:05:04,880
Speaker 4: announced that they're going to try to help their companies

1251
01:05:04,920 --> 01:05:06,880
Speaker 4: that you know, these factories that are completely shut down.

1252
01:05:06,920 --> 01:05:08,640
Speaker 4: They're going to try to help those companies, help those

1253
01:05:08,920 --> 01:05:10,680
Speaker 4: workers to get through this, because they can do that.

1254
01:05:10,840 --> 01:05:14,120
Speaker 4: They have like a unified system, whereas you know, we don't,

1255
01:05:14,160 --> 01:05:15,920
Speaker 4: you know, Donald Trump would have to go to Congress

1256
01:05:16,360 --> 01:05:18,800
Speaker 4: and doesn't apparently doesn't feel any interest in doing that

1257
01:05:19,920 --> 01:05:23,320
Speaker 4: real quickly on that on that Intel point to preempt

1258
01:05:23,920 --> 01:05:27,120
Speaker 4: or a counter argument that you're going to hear from

1259
01:05:27,880 --> 01:05:30,920
Speaker 4: Trump supporters over this plant. Well, let's say, well, this

1260
01:05:31,080 --> 01:05:34,080
Speaker 4: plant was it was delayed previously. First it was supposed

1261
01:05:34,080 --> 01:05:35,760
Speaker 4: to be twenty twenty whatever, and then it was supposed

1262
01:05:35,760 --> 01:05:37,640
Speaker 4: to be twenty to thirty. Now it's twenty thirty one.

1263
01:05:38,120 --> 01:05:41,000
Speaker 4: And this is, you know, a representative of the failures

1264
01:05:41,160 --> 01:05:43,080
Speaker 4: of the of the Chips Act, of the and of

1265
01:05:43,160 --> 01:05:46,600
Speaker 4: the underlying kind of capacity in the United States to

1266
01:05:46,760 --> 01:05:51,160
Speaker 4: build up our high tech manufacturing base. Okay, true, But

1267
01:05:51,240 --> 01:05:56,320
Speaker 4: if that's the case, and you already understand that, is

1268
01:05:56,560 --> 01:05:59,840
Speaker 4: that the foundation on which you would launch a trade

1269
01:06:01,360 --> 01:06:04,680
Speaker 4: like think about that. So according to you, I'm talking

1270
01:06:04,760 --> 01:06:07,240
Speaker 4: to you Trump supporters who are going to make this

1271
01:06:07,360 --> 01:06:10,520
Speaker 4: exact point about this Intel plant, that this had nothing

1272
01:06:10,560 --> 01:06:12,400
Speaker 4: to do with the tariffs, that we just simply are

1273
01:06:12,600 --> 01:06:17,600
Speaker 4: not able to build these manufacturing facilities in a competent way.

1274
01:06:18,160 --> 01:06:21,320
Speaker 4: If that's true, and it is, we have a lot

1275
01:06:21,360 --> 01:06:24,919
Speaker 4: of work to do when it comes to labor force

1276
01:06:24,960 --> 01:06:28,680
Speaker 4: and when it comes to cracking down on these multinational corporations.

1277
01:06:28,720 --> 01:06:32,920
Speaker 4: It would much rather do stock buybacks than actual investments.

1278
01:06:33,040 --> 01:06:35,000
Speaker 4: That's true, We've got to get our house in order.

1279
01:06:35,680 --> 01:06:38,400
Speaker 4: If that's true, then why did you just take a

1280
01:06:38,400 --> 01:06:41,880
Speaker 4: wrecking ball to our ability to do that? Why not

1281
01:06:42,480 --> 01:06:47,240
Speaker 4: fix our own manufacturing capacity problems here in the United

1282
01:06:47,280 --> 01:06:50,440
Speaker 4: States first and then launch a trade war so that

1283
01:06:51,280 --> 01:06:56,760
Speaker 4: when market conditions are made better domestically by tariffs, we

1284
01:06:57,040 --> 01:06:59,720
Speaker 4: have the capacity to respond to those conditions and build

1285
01:06:59,800 --> 01:07:03,440
Speaker 4: man manufacturing capacity. That would be how you could potentially

1286
01:07:03,480 --> 01:07:04,360
Speaker 4: successfully do that.

1287
01:07:04,600 --> 01:07:07,000
Speaker 5: And the irony is we actually were doing some of that.

1288
01:07:07,160 --> 01:07:11,640
Speaker 4: Widen. The charts are like shooting straight up under Biden.

1289
01:07:11,840 --> 01:07:15,400
Speaker 2: If you if you go and look at manufacturing investment

1290
01:07:15,480 --> 01:07:19,480
Speaker 2: and spending and jobs, and you know, these factories were, yeah,

1291
01:07:19,560 --> 01:07:20,720
Speaker 2: these factories.

1292
01:07:20,320 --> 01:07:21,280
Speaker 5: Were coming online.

1293
01:07:21,640 --> 01:07:24,080
Speaker 2: We were actually, you know, for the first time in

1294
01:07:24,320 --> 01:07:28,000
Speaker 2: a long time, the recovery out of COVID included more

1295
01:07:28,160 --> 01:07:31,120
Speaker 2: manufacturing spending. You know, the history of economic crises in

1296
01:07:31,480 --> 01:07:35,640
Speaker 2: you know, modern American economic history has been that when

1297
01:07:35,680 --> 01:07:38,040
Speaker 2: you come out of the crisis, some of the manufacturing

1298
01:07:38,160 --> 01:07:39,240
Speaker 2: losses they're just gone.

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Speaker 5: They don't come back.

1300
01:07:40,880 --> 01:07:44,360
Speaker 2: And they were able to buck that trend through the

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01:07:44,680 --> 01:07:48,080
Speaker 2: Infrastructure Act and through the Chips Act in particular, and

1302
01:07:48,760 --> 01:07:52,000
Speaker 2: through the the Inflation Reduction Act, which is the dumbest

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01:07:52,000 --> 01:07:52,360
Speaker 2: ever name.

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01:07:52,440 --> 01:07:55,200
Speaker 4: But anyway, some of some of Trump and Biden's tariffs, yes,

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01:07:55,480 --> 01:07:56,240
Speaker 4: targeted tariffs.

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01:07:56,280 --> 01:07:59,560
Speaker 2: Put putting all of those things together, you actually did

1307
01:07:59,680 --> 01:08:04,400
Speaker 2: have a positive trend in terms of rebuilding American manufacturing

1308
01:08:04,520 --> 01:08:08,160
Speaker 2: in some really key sectors for the future. And all

1309
01:08:08,240 --> 01:08:11,200
Speaker 2: of that they're taking a sledgehammer to. And Trump thought

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01:08:11,240 --> 01:08:13,200
Speaker 2: all of that was stupid. Ryan, I mean, He's said this.

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01:08:14,480 --> 01:08:17,920
Speaker 2: His view was, you didn't have to give do this

1312
01:08:18,000 --> 01:08:20,840
Speaker 2: industrial policy. You didn't have to give these subsidies and

1313
01:08:21,000 --> 01:08:23,280
Speaker 2: create these incentives for companies to build that.

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01:08:23,320 --> 01:08:25,519
Speaker 5: You could just do tariffs and force them into it.

1315
01:08:25,600 --> 01:08:27,479
Speaker 4: And job bone them. Yeah, call them up and yell

1316
01:08:27,479 --> 01:08:28,040
Speaker 4: at them. Yeah.

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01:08:28,080 --> 01:08:29,960
Speaker 2: And you know what the job owning like with a

1318
01:08:30,080 --> 01:08:32,920
Speaker 2: company here or there, that may work. But if you're

1319
01:08:33,000 --> 01:08:39,240
Speaker 2: trying to have a nationwide manufacturing renaissance in certain key sectors,

1320
01:08:39,920 --> 01:08:41,559
Speaker 2: you are not going to be able to jaw bone

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01:08:41,640 --> 01:08:43,760
Speaker 2: your way into that. And you're certainly not going to

1322
01:08:43,800 --> 01:08:45,960
Speaker 2: be able to just tariff your way into that. And

1323
01:08:46,040 --> 01:08:48,639
Speaker 2: we know that because in Trump's first term he did

1324
01:08:48,800 --> 01:08:52,600
Speaker 2: just tariffs, much more limited, but just tariffs without corresponding

1325
01:08:52,640 --> 01:08:53,479
Speaker 2: industrial policy.

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01:08:53,600 --> 01:08:54,280
Speaker 5: And it didn't work.

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01:08:54,439 --> 01:08:58,439
Speaker 2: Manufacturing continues to decline, Companies continue to offshore jobs. And

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01:08:58,720 --> 01:09:00,800
Speaker 2: the only way that we turn, no matter what round,

1329
01:09:00,920 --> 01:09:03,679
Speaker 2: was through the industrial policy that was you know, inherent

1330
01:09:03,760 --> 01:09:06,320
Speaker 2: in the Biden administration that the Trump Trump people and

1331
01:09:06,400 --> 01:09:09,080
Speaker 2: the Doge people are now completely like decimating and taking

1332
01:09:09,080 --> 01:09:09,720
Speaker 2: a wrecking ball to