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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along

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Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day

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Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,

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Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Kind the Bloomberg Markets

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Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts,

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Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. Let's bring in Chris Low,

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Speaker 1: chief economist at h N Financial. A lot to talk about.

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Speaker 1: Chris one of the most expert forecasters when it comes

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Speaker 1: to the labor market. But Chris, oh, we don't mind

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Speaker 1: me jumping first into the president's diagnosis. Now, the market

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Speaker 1: gaped lower at the open, but we have been recovering

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Speaker 1: ever since. The SMP down now just seven tenths of

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Speaker 1: one percent. What does this change in terms of calculations

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Speaker 1: for traders? Essentially, there are just three outcomes, right, the

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Speaker 1: president wins the election, the resident loses the election, or

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Speaker 1: at some point between now and then, he becomes incapacitated

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Speaker 1: for a time. Well, that's right, good morning, funny. I

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Speaker 1: I think what we're hearing on the trading floor this warning, anyway,

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Speaker 1: is most people we're already thinking Biden most likely wins

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Speaker 1: this election, and that for that reason from an economic standpoint.

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Speaker 1: From a political standpoint, maybe what matters is the president's

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Speaker 1: inability to campaign in the last month before the election

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Speaker 1: and as a result, a more decisive Biden win. And

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Speaker 1: that has market implications because a more decisive win means

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Speaker 1: a bigger chance of flipping the Senate, giving the new

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Speaker 1: president a bigger mandate and easier to get his policies

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Speaker 1: through and uh, therefore resulting in a more aggressive domestic agenda. Alright, so, Chris,

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Speaker 1: I guess the question really goes to the Senate, as

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Speaker 1: you suggested here, What do you do you think the

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Speaker 1: market needs to be concerned about, uh, a democratic White

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Speaker 1: House and Senate as it relates to taxes, regulation, trade,

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Speaker 1: those issues. How do you think the market's kind of

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Speaker 1: thinking about that right now? Well, I'd say it's complicated. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And And the reason I say that is, look, if

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Speaker 1: if if Joe Biden gets everything he's proposed in terms

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Speaker 1: of taxes and spending, it's net positive for the economy. Uh.

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Speaker 1: It is certainly a significant redistribution, however, um And and

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Speaker 1: given that equity holders have big capital gains and tend

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Speaker 1: to be high income individuals, I suspect many of them

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Speaker 1: think it would be negative for them. UM. That said,

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Speaker 1: I think that we've already seen a rotation. We've seen

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Speaker 1: people taking profits just in case, uh in the past

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Speaker 1: month or so. UM. And I would caution anyone who's

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Speaker 1: thinking about making a trade based on the outcome of

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Speaker 1: the election. Regardless of who wins, the stock market always

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Speaker 1: does well in the first year. Uh. There is often

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Speaker 1: a correction in the first weeks after an election, but

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Speaker 1: you know, the the public tends to believe that that

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Speaker 1: that new administration's policies will be ultimately beneficial, and as

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Speaker 1: a result, the market does tend to trade higher in

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Speaker 1: the first year. It's fascinating, Chris. You know, the things

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Speaker 1: that we've been waiting for, like, for example, more stimulus,

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Speaker 1: This job's reward only makes that more urgent. Is that

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Speaker 1: a correct statement? I think so. Although Bunnie, I I

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Speaker 1: would argue this was actually a stronger than expected report,

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Speaker 1: given that private payrolls were up eight hundred seventy seven thousand,

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Speaker 1: there was a hundred and two thousand upward revision, the

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Speaker 1: unemployment rate unexpectedly falling to seven point nine percent, and

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Speaker 1: the only reason the headline missed was because local teacher

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Speaker 1: employment was not up enough in September to overcome the

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Speaker 1: seasonal factor, so on a seasonally adjusted basis, is reported

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Speaker 1: down two thousand. But if you have teachers in your family,

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Speaker 1: I've got a couple of sisters who teach public school.

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Speaker 1: You know, they went back early this year. They went

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Speaker 1: back because they had to figure out how they were

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Speaker 1: going to teach, and then they had to be trained

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Speaker 1: so they could teach. And those teacher numbers were huge

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Speaker 1: in July and August. UH compared to a year ago,

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Speaker 1: teacher employment is is little changed. Chris, how do you

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Speaker 1: think about the UH employment structure in this country here

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Speaker 1: before the pandemic where you know, historically low unemployment I

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Speaker 1: think three point six percent or something along those lines here,

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Speaker 1: How do you think it the unemployment situation is going

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Speaker 1: to look over the next couple three years. Is there

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Speaker 1: some permanent or semi permanent change resulting from this pandemic?

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Speaker 1: Do you think? I? I worry that is definitely a possibility.

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Speaker 1: I you know, I think it's really interesting. Economists are

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Speaker 1: talking about this dichotomy between a V shaped recovery and

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Speaker 1: a K shaped recovery, K shaped, suggesting that people are

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Speaker 1: being left behind, even as others prosper I think it's

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Speaker 1: important to realize these are not mutually exclusive. The economy

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Speaker 1: is in fact roaring back faster than expected, and yet

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Speaker 1: people are being left behind, and for that reason, I think, Uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, the thing I was most encouraged by in

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Speaker 1: the report this morning was that the African American unemployment

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Speaker 1: rate fell nine tenths of a percent um, and then

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Speaker 1: the unemployment rate among those with less than high school education,

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Speaker 1: so the sort of least skilled workers in the workforce,

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Speaker 1: that unemployment rate fell by two full percentage points. So

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Speaker 1: it it It does suggest in September at least that

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Speaker 1: some of the less advantaged communities in the US made

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Speaker 1: outsized gains, which is encouraging. What about women were seeing

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Speaker 1: some reports that women fared very badly in this particular

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Speaker 1: jobs report. Have you had a chance to look through

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Speaker 1: that data, Chris, that's that's right, Bonny, And that is

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Speaker 1: a trend that goes all the way back to the

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Speaker 1: beginning of this pandemic. With the March numbers. Uh, it's

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Speaker 1: you know, I think it looks it's one of the

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Speaker 1: reasons New York City, for example, was so late to

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Speaker 1: go back to restaurant dining. That this sort of realization

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Speaker 1: that that a lot of New Yorkers rely on school

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Speaker 1: for childcare, that without in school education, UH, two income

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Speaker 1: families are going to have to make a decision about

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Speaker 1: who works and who stays home. And with uh an

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Speaker 1: outsized number of families. UM, it is women's employment that

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Speaker 1: suffered as a result, and that continued in September. So, Chris,

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Speaker 1: you know, we we look at the economic data and

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Speaker 1: it's it's it's certainly showing an improvement, whether you're looking

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Speaker 1: at the housing data. Get some decent manufacturing numbers come

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Speaker 1: through this week. Uh. We are adding jobs, maybe at

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Speaker 1: a slower pace than what we would like to see,

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Speaker 1: but we are aiding stoves back. UM. I guess the

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Speaker 1: question is what does it mean if I'm sitting in Washington,

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Speaker 1: d C. How do you think the folks in Congress

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Speaker 1: are trying to digest this datas relates to fiscal stimulus.

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Speaker 1: That that is a fantastic question, and I think for perspective,

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Speaker 1: it's it's really important to hold the third quarter pins

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Speaker 1: up against the second quarter losses. Um. We we are

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Speaker 1: recovering quickly. We're looking at something like growth in this quarter.

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Speaker 1: And one way you see that in this report is

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Speaker 1: aggregant hours worked which um which which rose by uh

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Speaker 1: well a little more than but but at the same

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Speaker 1: time they fell by a little more than in the

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Speaker 1: second quarter. So there's we're climbing out of a really

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Speaker 1: deep hole. And the biggest gains were made all the

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Speaker 1: way back in May and June. We're climbing at a

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Speaker 1: decelerating pace as we go into the fourth quarter. I

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Speaker 1: I would argue that it is absolutely reckless not to

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Speaker 1: have at least a skinny pandemic aid bill, but to

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Speaker 1: do no bill at all is reckless. And uh you

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Speaker 1: know this. This is another reason I am worried by

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Speaker 1: the increasing chaos in Washington with the President testing COVID positive,

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Speaker 1: because it's just it's it's one more reason to think

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Speaker 1: that we may not get a bill because we're not

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Speaker 1: going to get the kind of work from both sides

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Speaker 1: that we need to reach compromise. Chris just explained to

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Speaker 1: us how we should read eight thirty seven thousand people

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Speaker 1: filing jobless claims for the first time. That was the

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Speaker 1: data we got yesterday, with sixty jobs created in the

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Speaker 1: non farm payrolls report. How are they correlated? Yeah, you know,

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Speaker 1: normally if you see outsized initial claims um, you would

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Speaker 1: expect to drop an employment And of course we've we've

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Speaker 1: had employment growth since the May report. UM My sense

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Speaker 1: is that the unemployment insurance system is still broken, that

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Speaker 1: states are struggling to keep people on the roles, they

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Speaker 1: are still falling off and they have to refile on

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Speaker 1: top of that. It's it's really hard to square the

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Speaker 1: ten million or so that show up as unemployed in

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Speaker 1: the unemployment report with the twenty six million who received

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Speaker 1: unemployment benefits of one kind or another two weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: I do at times wonder if the Bureau of Labor

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Speaker 1: Statistics has actually captured the full extent of the damage

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Speaker 1: from the lockdowns and the damage that continues in the

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Speaker 1: economy now. Chris, thanks so much for joining us. We

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Speaker 1: really appreciate your thoughts and perspective. Chris Lowe, Chief economists

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Speaker 1: at f h N Financial. So much news to process

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Speaker 1: on this busy Friday morning. We have the President in

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Speaker 1: his diagnosis of COVID nineteen. Also have a busy jobs

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Speaker 1: data day today, US jobs they rise less than forecast

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Speaker 1: as the economic rebound kind of downshifts here, I guess

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Speaker 1: there is a way to say it here in the

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Speaker 1: US economy. To get the latest on the jobs market,

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Speaker 1: we turn once again to Tom Gimble. He's a founder

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Speaker 1: and CEO of LaSalle Network. Found in Sound Network is

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Speaker 1: one of the leading staffing and recruiting firms in the country,

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Speaker 1: so Tom really has his finger on the pulse of hiring. Tom,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. What are your

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Speaker 1: takeaways from the jobs data that we got this morning.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's good signs. Everybody wants it to

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Speaker 1: always be record setting months, but we added jobs, unemployment drop.

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Speaker 1: Those are positive signs. Uh, It's what it's what should

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Speaker 1: have happened. As the weather is still warm, you know,

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Speaker 1: as I've been saying with you guys for a few

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Speaker 1: months now, we'll really get an accurate reading on on

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Speaker 1: how things can stand up when the weather changes. Because

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Speaker 1: what really got hit in end of March, April in

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Speaker 1: May was the hospitality and restaurant sector. That's where so

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Speaker 1: many of the layoffs and the unemployed numbers came from.

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Speaker 1: And with the summer and warm weather, it came back.

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Speaker 1: So we'll see what happens north of the Mason Dixon

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Speaker 1: Line when it gets cold again. It seems like manufacturing

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Speaker 1: jobs didn't you know, show as much progress this month

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Speaker 1: as other months. Or a construction either why is that?

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Speaker 1: Is there a shortage or have developers just stopped being

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Speaker 1: able to find land? Well, I think what you got

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Speaker 1: on the on the manufacturing is on the consumer side,

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Speaker 1: there isn't the surplus of buying that was happening in June, July,

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Speaker 1: and August as people were were in more of a

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Speaker 1: lockdown moment. People feel more comfortable going out. They understand

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Speaker 1: if you wear a mask. So it's people aren't buying

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Speaker 1: in bulk as much so on the on that side

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Speaker 1: of the manufacturing. What we're seeing in Corporate America and

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Speaker 1: on real estate is people are waiting to see how

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Speaker 1: things shake out. Number one with the election, and number two,

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Speaker 1: is there going to be a number another stimulus package

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Speaker 1: and if so, how much and will that go through

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Speaker 1: Corporate America or will that go to the individual citizens

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Speaker 1: and what people will do with that money. So I

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Speaker 1: think again, I don't mean to we only be pushing

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Speaker 1: the ball forward. However, um, we've got to wait and

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Speaker 1: see what happens with this stimulus and UH with the

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Speaker 1: election to see how corporations react. So, Tom, we've had

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Speaker 1: a lot of high profile companies announced layoffs really just

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Speaker 1: in the last week or so. It seems that the airlines, uh,

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Speaker 1: some of the financial institutions, uh, the Walt Disney Company

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Speaker 1: twenty eight thousand employees. Um. How should we think about

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Speaker 1: that as opposed to kind of what we saw in March,

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Speaker 1: April and May, which is some smaller businesses, restaurants and

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Speaker 1: think things like that. Well, the good news is we

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Speaker 1: know it's directly related to the virus and to traveling

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Speaker 1: not happening, So there isn't uh wondering what the cause

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Speaker 1: is to this effect. So whether it's a vaccine or um,

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Speaker 1: a treatment for the for the virus that comes out

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Speaker 1: that as soon as that happens, God willing is that

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Speaker 1: we will we will see that pick up very very quickly.

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Speaker 1: And that's more of that v recovery of when we

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Speaker 1: get a cure or a treatment that works on everybody,

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Speaker 1: you'll see that bounce back. Um. You know, the Disney

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Speaker 1: World stuff is very basic and obvious. What's interesting to

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Speaker 1: track for for our economy here is what's going on

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Speaker 1: in other countries and are we seeing spikes globally versus

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Speaker 1: just in UH North America. What were some of your

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Speaker 1: clients telling you, Can you give us an idea of

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Speaker 1: how they're feeling, who they're looking for that kind of thing. Sure,

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Speaker 1: So what we've seen is our temporary staffing numbers. We

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Speaker 1: do all white collars staffing and then we have UH

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Speaker 1: search practice permanent search practice. Our temporary staffing numbers are

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Speaker 1: pre COVID levels. So now we've got companies that are

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Speaker 1: hiring and bringing people back. So the question is why

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Speaker 1: temporarily And the answer is it's a leading indicator that

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Speaker 1: they're optimistic, but they're still unshare based on the election

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Speaker 1: to do full permanent placement now simultaneously worried about nine

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Speaker 1: of our of our search practice of what it was

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Speaker 1: pre COVID. So that's very healthy too. Um So, our

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Speaker 1: our clients have said, I got I led a CEO

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Speaker 1: roundtable yesterday and people were very bullish. They were they

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Speaker 1: were moving forward with plans, they were hiring. The one

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Speaker 1: thing they're not doing is signing real estate leases and

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Speaker 1: and that is still a fear of how will people

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Speaker 1: want to come to work and are they willing to

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Speaker 1: come to work? And those are two very different questions, Tom,

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Speaker 1: What are your clients telling you, as it relates to

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Speaker 1: maybe the CEOs you spoke to just yesterday about the election,

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Speaker 1: how are they thinking about kind of weighing the pluses

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Speaker 1: and minuses of the Trump versus a Biden administration. Well,

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Speaker 1: the interesting thing was is that you know, for for

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Speaker 1: the past five months, the majority of CEOs have said,

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Speaker 1: you know, we feel that if Biden wins, there'll be

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Speaker 1: a short term hit on the stock market and that

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Speaker 1: the economy and if Trump wins, while they don't approve

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Speaker 1: and almost to a to a person, they don't approve

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Speaker 1: of his behavior, but they think that it will keep

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Speaker 1: their business going and keep their employees employed. Now, there

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Speaker 1: was an article that showed UH the other day that

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Speaker 1: said that if Biden wins, that that means that the

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Speaker 1: government will keep putting a surplus of funds out from

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Speaker 1: the Fed and the Treasury, and that will keep the

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Speaker 1: economy going. While maybe a bit superficially. So I actually

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Speaker 1: saw yesterday or heard yesterday and the the CEO round

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Speaker 1: table I was I was a part of that they're

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Speaker 1: actually more bullish on a Biden presidency than they were

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Speaker 1: three months ago. Can I ask about restaurant workers. Are

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Speaker 1: we seeing any any shift up words in the amount

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Speaker 1: of restaurant workers that you know may have been hired

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Speaker 1: through the cell for example. I mean, I know obviously

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Speaker 1: a lot of people just went back to where they

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Speaker 1: had been working. But what can you tell about indoor

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Speaker 1: dining in places in New York and how that's impacting things. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so we we don't place people in the restaurants, but

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Speaker 1: we have seen is, for for example, our call center practice,

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Speaker 1: which has moved to almost all virtual where our clients

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Speaker 1: will put let people be in call centers virtually in

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Speaker 1: their home, and we've been seeing people who were restaurant

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Speaker 1: workers moving into those roles. Obviously, they're rolling back in

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Speaker 1: over the summer with outdoor dining in New York and

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Speaker 1: Chicago and other city major metropolitan cities. Um, the challenge

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Speaker 1: in that is and I was talking to the end

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Speaker 1: of last week a couple very large restaurant owners, and

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Speaker 1: they were saying that if if it doesn't get to

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Speaker 1: be more than sev there's absolutely no way they can

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Speaker 1: handle a winter. And if the restaurants do close down, um,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna see a huge spike and unemployment in the

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Speaker 1: service just like we had in March and April. It's

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Speaker 1: gonna be it's gonna be the exact same thing on

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Speaker 1: the on the restaurant side as it was. And as

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Speaker 1: the winter months come, you're gonna see less automobile travel

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Speaker 1: for vacations and you'll see it in the hotel side too.

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Speaker 1: Now coincidentally, the good thing is coming into the holiday

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Speaker 1: season with Amazon, with Target, you're gonna have holiday shopping.

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Speaker 1: So there will be jobs in the warehouse and distribution

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Speaker 1: centers and things like that, and people just have to

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Speaker 1: pivot and go from being UH servers and waiters and

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Speaker 1: bartenders to being in warehouses and picking and packing UH

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Speaker 1: for the hot days. So, Tom, is there any regional

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Speaker 1: variations that you're seeing in your data here certain parts

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Speaker 1: of the country doing better or worse than others. No,

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Speaker 1: what we're seeing is is there there there is a

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Speaker 1: little bit of Red state, Blue state and south of

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Speaker 1: the Mason Dixon line where the weather stays warmer and

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Speaker 1: the hospitality UH workers are are gonna be able to

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Speaker 1: work outside longer. Um that it's doing really well. UH.

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Speaker 1: In in Alabama, the bars just old restaurants just opened again,

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Speaker 1: and so you have that situation and where you've got

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Speaker 1: um in more of the quote unquote blue states and

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Speaker 1: blue governors and mayors that it's a little bit more restrictive,

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Speaker 1: and you're seeing people now what is what is gonna happen?

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Speaker 1: I was I was with UH, a private equity UH

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Speaker 1: partner the other day and they were saying, you know,

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Speaker 1: the restaurants will shut down, but eighteen to twenty four

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Speaker 1: months from now, you're gonna get a lot of entrepreneurial

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Speaker 1: opportunities where people are gonna go in and take over

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Speaker 1: those vacated restaurant spaces at lower rates and reopen. And

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Speaker 1: so you know, the the economy will bounce back and

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Speaker 1: maybe even at a higher level, but it may take

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Speaker 1: two or three years for that to happen. And there's

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Speaker 1: gonna be some there's gonna be some bodies buried around

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Speaker 1: because of UH of the economic uncertainty. We saw today

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Speaker 1: that younger people actually saw a bit of a boost

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Speaker 1: in this job's reporting twenty four for example, presumably because

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Speaker 1: they're cheaper and so on. In terms of age groups.

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Speaker 1: What have you been seeing, you know, coming into the

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Speaker 1: cell or calling the cell, and what have you been

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Speaker 1: seeing requested from the cell absolutely so. What we see

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Speaker 1: a lot is recent college grads called zero to three

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Speaker 1: years out of college, and you're exactly right. The wages

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Speaker 1: have been driven down in this economy, and people who

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Speaker 1: want to work, especially remotely, are going to take less

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Speaker 1: money to work remotely than having to go into the office,

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Speaker 1: and we've seen a spike there. The other thing we've

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Speaker 1: seen as at senior manager and executive level is our

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Speaker 1: contract business of people who will do three to six

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Speaker 1: month engagements that previously we're only looking for uh quote

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Speaker 1: unquote permanent jobs are willing to do three to six

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Speaker 1: months contracts now. And you know that that profile is

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Speaker 1: usually late forties, the sixty year old UH folks who

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Speaker 1: are willing to do more short term positions at an

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Speaker 1: executive level versus holding out because no one knows how

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Speaker 1: long it's going to be and they don't want to

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Speaker 1: be uh They don't want to be the last person

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Speaker 1: standing when the music stops. Hey, Tom, thanks so much

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Speaker 1: for joining us. We appreciate it. Tom Gimble, founder and

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Speaker 1: CEO of LaSalle A Network. We appreciate your thoughts. Let's

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Speaker 1: talk about the potential UH handoff of power even an

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Speaker 1: a temporary basis, should President Trump fall ill to this

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Speaker 1: COVID nineteen. We welcome Josh Green, Bloomberg Business Week National correspondent. Josh,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. Tell us what

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Speaker 1: you know as to to the extent that the President

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Speaker 1: were to become hospitalized, how this might play out, to

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Speaker 1: the extent there might need to be some temporary, uh

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Speaker 1: handover of power and responsibilities. Well, we actually did a

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Speaker 1: big story in Business Week about what would happen if

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Speaker 1: the President tested positive for COVID back in May, and

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Speaker 1: talk to all the constitutional experts then a lot of

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Speaker 1: former White House advisors on the two ways the transfer

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Speaker 1: that power could be transferred under the amendment. UM. The first,

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Speaker 1: and this is not all that uncommon, is that the

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Speaker 1: president could agree to hand over control of the vice

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Speaker 1: president temporarily. UM. This happened twice under the George W.

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Speaker 1: Bush administration while President Bush was undergoing medical procedures. It

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Speaker 1: happened during the Reagan administration. Wants it's not all that unusual. UM.

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Speaker 1: The other way in which power could be transferred is

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Speaker 1: if Trump were stricken suddenly or had to be sedated

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Speaker 1: for intubation. UH. In that case, if he if he

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Speaker 1: didn't voluntarily hand over power. The amendment allows for the

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Speaker 1: vice president and the cabinet to execute that transfer presidential power. So, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, from what little we've heard from the White

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Speaker 1: House about the president's condition, it doesn't seem as if

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Speaker 1: right now that's something that's coming into play. But in

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Speaker 1: the event that his symptoms worsened, Uh, and it could.

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Speaker 1: He could either do it on his own or his

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Speaker 1: cabinet and vice president could do it for him. Now,

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Speaker 1: what happens if a president contests the ending that he's

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Speaker 1: incapable of carrying out his duties? Josh, can he contested

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Speaker 1: and win? Well, it's it's not really clear, and we

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Speaker 1: haven't we haven't been in this situation before. I mean,

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Speaker 1: there is a clear constitutional line of succession. If Trump

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Speaker 1: were incapacitated unable to fulfill the duties of his office,

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Speaker 1: whether he thought so or not, Cabinet and vice president

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Speaker 1: could vote and decide to take those powers away to

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Speaker 1: transfer them the Vice President Pence. If, however, Trump and

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Speaker 1: Pence both were to be stricken with a virus and incapacitated,

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Speaker 1: the next in line and constitutional succession is how Speaker

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Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat, of course, very unlikely I think

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Speaker 1: that that would happen. But if we do wind up

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Speaker 1: down that path, this is when constitutional experts say that

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Speaker 1: things get very, very tricky because the Constitution does not

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Speaker 1: define what constitutes the president inability to do it to

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Speaker 1: do the job. So some of the experts I talked

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Speaker 1: to have said, you know, that raises a scenario where

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Speaker 1: Trump and pens could both be sick with the virus.

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Speaker 1: Lucy could declare them incapacitated in herself as president, while

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Speaker 1: Republicans in the White House might argue, no, they're still

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Speaker 1: capable of fulfilling the duties. And in that case you

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Speaker 1: wind up with a full blown constitutional crisis that would

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Speaker 1: probably be to be settle in court. But it's worth

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Speaker 1: it's worth stipulating. So far, President Vice President Mike Pence

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Speaker 1: has tested negative. The White House is saying, and Josh,

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Speaker 1: it appears to I guess, at least to me that

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Speaker 1: Vice President Pence has a good, uh strong relationship with

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Speaker 1: President Trump. Is that in fact the cases or a

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Speaker 1: sense that if there were to be a transfer of

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Speaker 1: power at least temporarily, that Vice President Pence is generally

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Speaker 1: well versed in much of the issues facing the president

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Speaker 1: during his term. Well, I think Pence has shown himself

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Speaker 1: willing to subordinate himself to Trump's desires pretty much, no

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Speaker 1: matter what they are, and so you wouldn't imagine that

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Speaker 1: Pence would make some sort of power grab against Trump's wishes. Um.

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Speaker 1: But but certainly there are are not implausible scenarios under

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Speaker 1: which Trump has to be uh sedated or undergo some

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Speaker 1: kind of a medical procedure, whether it's incubation something like that,

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Speaker 1: where Pence in the cabinet might feel that it's in

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Speaker 1: the best interests of Trump and the country to temporarily

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Speaker 1: transfer that power. But this this isn't something that we've

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Speaker 1: we've seen before. All previous transfers of power um for

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Speaker 1: medically related reason, tended to be things like colonoscopes and

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Speaker 1: things that could be scheduled, predicted and agreed to well

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Speaker 1: in advance, whereas this situation seems much more fluid. What

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Speaker 1: do you imagine campaigning will look like between now and

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Speaker 1: the election, Josh, I mean, if President Trump is you know,

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Speaker 1: quarantining and isolating in fact more than quarantining, because he

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Speaker 1: has a definite diagnosis, and if the former vice president

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Speaker 1: continues to test negative, presumably he can keep campaigning. Will

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Speaker 1: he take the opportunity to campaign way more than he

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Speaker 1: was ever expecting to the vice president? It's a good question.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we don't know whether or not he will quarantine.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he's certainly been exposed to the president as

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Speaker 1: recently as Tuesday. His office said, Um, you know, Hope Picks,

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Speaker 1: the President's close advisor, trust tested positive on Thursday. So

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Speaker 1: it's not entirely certain that Vice President Pence is out

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Speaker 1: of the clear, and I would I would think that

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Speaker 1: until that we're definitively established that he wouldn't be out campaigning. Um,

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Speaker 1: I don't know in a campaign sense whether whether Mike

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Speaker 1: Pence is quite the draw that Donald Trump is, But

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Speaker 1: in theory, if he continues to test negative, he could

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Speaker 1: go out and do some kind of his person campaigning.

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Speaker 1: As far as Trump, my guess is that he will

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Speaker 1: be even more active on Twitter, since that's really I

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Speaker 1: think the only venue has left if he's quarantined in

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Speaker 1: the White House. So it's Joshua that the President has

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Speaker 1: been very public in terms of being out there for

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Speaker 1: his campaign, rallies and so on, including less night here

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Speaker 1: in New Jersey. Um, what have you heard from the

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Speaker 1: White House? About you know, some of the that those issues.

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Speaker 1: The White House hasn't said anything about Trump continuing to campaign,

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Speaker 1: just that he's tested positive, that he is showing mild

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Speaker 1: symptoms and he's quarantined in the White House. The White

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Speaker 1: House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows came out a few

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Speaker 1: minutes ago, uh said that it confirmed that Trump is

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Speaker 1: exhibiting symptoms. Said he expects other White House staff to

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Speaker 1: test positive. So, Uh, it's hard to imagine a scenario

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Speaker 1: in which Donald Trump is out in person on the

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Speaker 1: campaign trail anytime in the next two weeks. Josh, I mean,

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Speaker 1: you can't answer this obviously, but it will be interesting

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Speaker 1: to see if the President continues to tweet or if

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Speaker 1: his phone gets taken away, because I mean, it probably

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00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 1: wouldn't be a good idea. People started looking at Twitter

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Speaker 1: and how often he tweets, and then if one day

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Speaker 1: he tweets less. You know, people jumped all sorts of conclusions.

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Speaker 1: It's very important for people around him to sort of

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Speaker 1: keep him in control these days, right I think so.

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Speaker 1: I mean, one of the one of the ongoing complaints

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Speaker 1: about Donald Trump in the White House from friends and

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Speaker 1: foes alike, that he spent too much time on Twitter,

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Speaker 1: too much time tweeting. I think now we're in a

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Speaker 1: condition where all the experts I've talked to said that

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Speaker 1: what's what's most important is to establish who is commander

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Speaker 1: in chief and then that person is out there, alert

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Speaker 1: and capable of doing the job. And so in that sense,

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Speaker 1: I think there might be some some reassurance if Trump

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Speaker 1: were uh to tweet and sort of tweet as himself,

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Speaker 1: uh and assure people, assure markets that you know, he is,

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Speaker 1: he is still in in charge, he's still in control,

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Speaker 1: he's still occupying the Oval office, and that these issues

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Speaker 1: of constitutional succession don't need to come into play. I

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Speaker 1: think I do think that would for a reassurance. And

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Speaker 1: so we'll have to do what I and and every

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00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 1: other White House reporter does and just sort of keep

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Speaker 1: our eyes on Twitter to see whether or not the

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Speaker 1: president tweets and what it is that he has to say.

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Speaker 1: Josh Green, thanks so much. We appreciate that as always.

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Speaker 1: Josh Green, Bloomberg Business Week National corresponded, thanks for listening

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00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:23,360
Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to

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00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 1: interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer.

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00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 1: I'm Bonnie Quinn, I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, and

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00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 1: I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before

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00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 1: the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Radio