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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: All the work, all the talk, all the handicapping is done.

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Speaker 1: It's time for history. They're all in line, We're ready

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Speaker 1: for the stars. They're off in the Kentucky Derby Rank.

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Speaker 3: Another two legs more back to win win wind on

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Speaker 3: the turn, beginning to pick up.

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Speaker 4: Drive near the back of the pack as the field

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Speaker 4: turns for home.

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Speaker 1: Any burst on and opening on the inside.

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Speaker 5: It's trying first drive as they come to the final

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Speaker 5: prolong kick fling on what room on to the line.

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Speaker 1: Had a possible result here Welsh that Kentucky.

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Speaker 6: Welcome back to the Action Network podcast for your Kentucky

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Speaker 6: Derby Best Bets edition, presented by Twin Spires Brendan Glasheen

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Speaker 6: joined by two horse racing experts delivering their favorite bets

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Speaker 6: for the one hundred in forty eighth renewal of the

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Speaker 6: Greatest two minutes in Sports at Churchhill Downs.

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Speaker 1: First Up.

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Speaker 6: Delighted to welcome Action contributor, host and analyst at Woodbine.

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Speaker 6: You can find her at Parley Queen on social media.

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Speaker 6: Monique Vague Monique, Hello, good to see you again, thanks

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Speaker 6: for coming on.

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Speaker 4: Hello, Thank you.

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Speaker 3: Guys so much for having me. It's always exciting to

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Speaker 3: be able to talk horses. I know this is the

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Speaker 3: one time fear where we have our regular horse racing

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Speaker 3: fans that follow along on a nightly basis, but then

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Speaker 3: we get those newcomers, those new fans, So it's always

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Speaker 3: fun to be able to try to sell people on

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Speaker 3: what an amazing product that we do have.

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Speaker 4: But thank you for having me.

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Speaker 6: Of course, and rounding out the field today we have

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Speaker 6: Action Racing editor Jeremy Puon.

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Speaker 1: Jeremy, let me be the.

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Speaker 6: First to welcome you to the podcast first ever all

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Speaker 6: Canadian panels.

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Speaker 2: Sir, that is a pretty.

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Speaker 5: Unique situation, right, I'm a transplant from the US, but

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Speaker 5: I love Canada. Glad to be part of this with Monique,

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Speaker 5: and hopefully we can hit some stuff for all of

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Speaker 5: our wonderful viewers and readers.

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Speaker 6: Want to start Monique with if you mentioned if someone

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Speaker 6: is just diving into the horse racing space landscape from

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Speaker 6: a betting perspective, if there are a casual, better first

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Speaker 6: time or what's your biggest piece of advice for betting

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Speaker 6: the Kentucky Derby.

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Speaker 4: I mean, that's a.

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Speaker 3: Tough one because there's always so many different roads, so

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Speaker 3: it's always for the complete amateur like complete new be better.

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Speaker 3: Some that's ever bet the horses before someone that has.

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Speaker 3: For anyone that has, I always say, utilize as many

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Speaker 3: tools as you possibly can, So rewatch those replays, rewatch

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Speaker 3: those works, and try to go through and get as

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Speaker 3: much information as you possibly can, because oftentimes, visually, even

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Speaker 3: if you're not an expert in horse racing, it's so

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Speaker 3: important to be able to see how horses either started

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Speaker 3: the mile, if they had some type of traffic trouble,

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Speaker 3: or how they finished as well. So that's really important.

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Speaker 3: And another thing too is I know a lot of

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Speaker 3: people that are maybe sports better is and not particularly

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Speaker 3: familiar with something like the Kentucky Derby and horse racing

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Speaker 3: as a whole, then I'd say don't hold too much

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Speaker 3: weight to post positions. I know oftentimes we wait and

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Speaker 3: we see horse, does that draw the extreme outside? Of course,

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Speaker 3: it's never favorable to be extreme outside or extreme inside,

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Speaker 3: But if you do like a horse, it'd say, don't

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Speaker 3: be deterred by the post position because the trip is

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Speaker 3: so much in the break from the gate. There's so

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Speaker 3: many times we see a horse that has absolutely no

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Speaker 3: shot early on, and to be honest, that doesn't really

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Speaker 3: matter in terms of where the horse comes from the gate.

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Speaker 3: More than anything, it's a start the horse has, so

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Speaker 3: with how much track of trouble we end up seeing

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Speaker 3: in the derby As a whole, I'd say, if you

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Speaker 3: like a horse, don't be deterred by either the odds,

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Speaker 3: post position, or some of the stats that may be

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Speaker 3: going against your horse.

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Speaker 4: If you like it, you like it.

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Speaker 1: Jeremy, how about you. Biggest piece of advice, I.

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Speaker 5: Would say, if you're a casual better just have fun

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Speaker 5: with it. Horse racing is a sport where you have

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Speaker 5: to know you're gonna win and you're gonna lose. I mean,

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Speaker 5: just as simple as that. And these are quick wins

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Speaker 5: and losses, since two minutes right, you know what's going

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Speaker 5: to happen. Unless you have a good vertical going pick four,

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Speaker 5: pick five, pick six, you know you want a quick,

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Speaker 5: you know, a win race.

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Speaker 2: You want to play show a candidate, stay with that.

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Speaker 5: But if you're more interested in the longer, the bigger pay,

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Speaker 5: where the chances are you're gonna lose way more often

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Speaker 5: than you win in those exotics type plays, be prepared

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Speaker 5: to lose you know, money before you win big. I

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Speaker 5: love the exotics. That's that's my again, that's my wheelhouse.

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Speaker 5: That's where I like to to win. You know, I've

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Speaker 5: hit big Preakness last year, which was three thousand. I

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Speaker 5: lost every other pick six after that, So that's that's

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Speaker 5: how it is with the Derby. I agree with Monique Post.

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Speaker 5: Physicians typically aren't that big of a deal. But I

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Speaker 5: will stay away from one, two three, get me away

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Speaker 5: from the rail.

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Speaker 2: I don't want to.

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Speaker 5: I don't care who's over there. I don't want to

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Speaker 5: deal with anything going on. There's too much bad, too

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Speaker 5: many bad things that can happen other than that. Monique's right.

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Speaker 5: If there's a horse you like, you stick with them.

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Speaker 5: It doesn't matter of the odds. I mean, there's long

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Speaker 5: shots that win this race. Just stick with your gut.

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Speaker 5: If you second get yourself, you're gonna feel bad when

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Speaker 5: that horse winds winning or finishing the top three and

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Speaker 5: you could have had you could have profited on that race.

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Speaker 5: So I just say, just have fun with it. No,

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Speaker 5: you're gonna lose races and be very happy when you win.

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Speaker 6: So before we dive into the Derby specifically, Jeremy has

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Speaker 6: thoughts on the Kentucky Oaks and the Oaks Derby Double.

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Speaker 6: It's a fun way to get involved starting Friday. It

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Speaker 6: was first offered back in nineteen ninety six. It spans

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Speaker 6: two days. Jeremy, you have a specific thought process and

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Speaker 6: how you go about finding picking and choosing value and

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Speaker 6: making a selection in each race. Take us through how

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Speaker 6: you make make a wager on the Oaks Derby Double.

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Speaker 6: With the Oaks, you're hoping that it's a race where

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Speaker 6: you can kind of single get it down to one

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Speaker 6: or two horses, then you can load up on the

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Speaker 6: Derby and expand your your your card there. Ideally you

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Speaker 6: get one or two horses to for the Oaks and

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Speaker 6: then you know six or seven for the Derby and

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Speaker 6: maybe catch your price. I think with this year, you've

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Speaker 6: got four horses that are legitimate contenders to win the Oaks,

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Speaker 6: and you start with secret Oaths.

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Speaker 5: It's the one, it's on the poet, it's on the

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Speaker 5: one post. But ran well in the Arkansas Derby finish third.

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Speaker 5: I think if she can work the trip out there

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Speaker 5: and didn't exert herself in that Arkansas Derby, she's gonna

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Speaker 5: be around and she's a good eyes. Right now, she's

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Speaker 5: six to one morning line for Hall of Fame trainer

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Speaker 5: d Wayne Lucas and jockey Luis Saia's.

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Speaker 2: The favorite right now is Todd Pletcher's Nest.

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Speaker 5: You get iright, t irad Artiez Junior, three time Eclipse

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Speaker 5: Award winning jockey board five to two odds, the likely favorite,

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Speaker 5: probably the likely winner. And I think you have to

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Speaker 5: add Equazulu Joel Rozario is gonna be a board with

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Speaker 5: Steve Asmus in training, and then the ten horse Kathleen

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Speaker 5: O to Suge McGahee trained charge with Aavier Castellan aboard.

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Speaker 5: So I think when you've got you've used those four,

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Speaker 5: you're gonna catch a win there, and then you gotta.

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Speaker 2: Hope you can catch your price in the derby.

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Speaker 5: So I think when you're looking at the derby, I'm

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Speaker 5: piecing those four horses in the top of it with

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Speaker 5: zandin in the derby. Love that horse coming out of

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Speaker 5: the Bluegrass. We love the favorite. We're also gonna use Taba.

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Speaker 5: It's gonna be twelve to one. Potentially. I think he'll

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Speaker 5: odds will drift down off that off that price. It's

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Speaker 5: a Bob Bafford horse that's been transferred to the barn

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Speaker 5: of Tim Yak team.

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Speaker 2: He's two for two.

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Speaker 5: He's a lightly raised son of gun Runner who won

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Speaker 5: the Breeders Cup Classic as a four year old. If

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Speaker 5: I remember correctly, that tells me he can get the distance.

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Speaker 5: Distance is key. A lot of these horses have never

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Speaker 5: run a mile on a quarter, so you can combine

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Speaker 5: the fact he is never he's lightly raced, and the

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Speaker 5: fact he seems on the up and up right now,

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Speaker 5: I think you're going to get a good price on him.

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Speaker 5: He defeated Messia in the Santa Anita Derby, and ironically

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Speaker 5: Messia is coming in at the better odds. He's eight

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Speaker 5: to one right now in the morning line. I think

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Speaker 5: those odds potentially will flip table will have a better

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Speaker 5: number than than Messia. But I'm not going to leave

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Speaker 5: a quote unquote Bob Bafford horse off my ticket. I've

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Speaker 5: done it too many times in the past, and I

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Speaker 5: favor this one over then Messia, so I think he's

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Speaker 5: a good use in this Daily double. I'm also gonna

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Speaker 5: use cyber knighte it's a long shot. We kind of

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Speaker 5: like coming off a nice win in the Arkansas Derby,

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Speaker 5: another son of gun Runner. Again, breeding is a huge

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Speaker 5: deal in this you want to see a horse that

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Speaker 5: can get the distance, or hope they can get distance,

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Speaker 5: at least in their blood lines. I think this is

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Speaker 5: a situation where you're gonna get a good price on

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Speaker 5: Severn after twenty to one. It's one of three entries

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Speaker 5: from the brad Cox barn and he's ridden by Florent Dreuse.

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Speaker 5: These guys connected last year with Mandaloon was promoted to

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Speaker 5: the win of the Derby after Medina Spirit was.

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Speaker 2: Disqualified.

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Speaker 5: And then you know, it's a situation where I think

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Speaker 5: that this horse again, another one of these horse that's

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Speaker 5: on the up and up, came out of the Arkansas Derby.

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Speaker 5: Healthy Clean has had some good works over the Churchill

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Speaker 5: down the surface, so I think you've got to use

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Speaker 5: him just for the price alone in the connections, and

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Speaker 5: then we're just going to toss in Smile Happy.

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Speaker 2: He's twenty to one.

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Speaker 5: He finished second to Zanden in the Bluegrass. He was

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Speaker 5: he struggled in the Risen Star. I thought the jockey

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Speaker 5: Cory and Lannery did not give him a good trip.

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Speaker 5: I thought he should have won that race and beat

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Speaker 5: at the Center. I thought Lanry pushed Smile Happy a

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Speaker 5: little too soon in the Bluegrass which allowed Xandan to

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Speaker 5: catch him down the lane and then go away. But

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Speaker 5: he's still a quality horse. He could still be sitting

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Speaker 5: on a big race. It's just a situation where I

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Speaker 5: think Smile Happy four starts two wins two seconds, never

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Speaker 5: out of the money. He might be distance compromised, regressing

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Speaker 5: from his two year old campaign where he put fields

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Speaker 5: away then, but he could turn around and be winning.

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Speaker 5: The horse that has sits a good trip, and if

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Speaker 5: Lannery puts him in a decent position like he did

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Speaker 5: in the Bluegrass and not send him too fast coming

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Speaker 5: around the turn as they head from home, he could

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Speaker 5: be right there too with Xanden. So I think just

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Speaker 5: at that price, you're not going to get twenty to

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Speaker 5: one from twenty to one of them at the start.

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Speaker 5: He'll probably close more closer to twelve to fifteen. But

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Speaker 5: if you want to use another horse underneath, that's the

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Speaker 5: fourth one. So that's my Oaks Derby Daily Double for

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Speaker 5: you guys.

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Speaker 6: Okay, great stuff from Jeremy on the Oaks Derby Double Wager.

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Speaker 1: Best way to go about it.

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Speaker 6: As a reminder, this is the Action Network podcast Kentucky

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Speaker 6: Derby Betting preview presented by twins Spires, the official betting

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Speaker 6: that leads us to.

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Speaker 1: Best bets for the Kentucky Derby. Monique Fig give it

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Speaker 1: to us.

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Speaker 6: What do you like for the Derby and your best bet,

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Speaker 6: best bet or bets for Saturday?

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Speaker 3: So in general for the Derby, I know we always

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Speaker 3: kind of talk about not loving to bet the favorites,

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Speaker 3: but I feel like Xander's going to be so incredibly

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Speaker 3: tough in here.

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Speaker 4: Really impressed me actually last year.

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Speaker 3: As a juvenile in the battling, actually in the fall

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Speaker 3: battling against modonegall in the Grade two rem in.

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Speaker 4: I thought he looked so good there. He had a

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Speaker 4: bad break.

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Speaker 3: And an easy pace, which ultimately I think cost him

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Speaker 3: any shot in the Risen Star, but to see him

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Speaker 3: rebound in such a big way, He's.

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Speaker 4: Definitely going to be my top pick in here.

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Speaker 3: And I love those hours that come in with wins

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Speaker 3: their most recent and have that type of confidence. As

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Speaker 3: for a price play, I agree with Jeremy this cyber Knife.

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Speaker 3: He's a really interesting one. He's one of those later bloomers,

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Speaker 3: got things going later on in his kind of campaign.

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Speaker 4: He rebounded a big way.

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Speaker 3: I think he's someone who has that type of tactical

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Speaker 3: speed and a good pedigree, which is also something that

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Speaker 3: kind of interests me with him.

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Speaker 4: He's going to be a huge price in here.

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Speaker 3: I think it could end up setting up well for

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Speaker 3: him as a big price, and he's in the morning

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Speaker 3: line at twenty to one, expecting to see similar to that,

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Speaker 3: maybe even a little bit higher at post. So he's

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Speaker 3: someone that I would definitely be including in some of

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Speaker 3: those exotics.

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Speaker 1: And now on to Sleeper.

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Speaker 1: Back to the show.

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Speaker 6: You mentioned zand and we set off the top of

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Speaker 6: the show. Don't read too much into gate number, but

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Speaker 6: that gate ten has been favorable nine victories since the

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Speaker 6: implementation of the starting gate. So Zanden being a favorite

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Speaker 6: makes a lot of sense with that previous history. How

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Speaker 6: about you, Jeremy best bet or bets for Saturday?

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Speaker 5: Well, I hate to go to chalk route here, but

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna have to agree with Monique Zanon is gonna

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Speaker 5: be tough to be the Bluegrass Stakes winner. Four starts,

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Speaker 5: two wins, the second and thirty is not finished out

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Speaker 5: of the money. Get jockey Flavor and Proude aboard and

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Speaker 5: it's this is a situation where this horse, you know,

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Speaker 5: you need to work out a great trip in the Derby.

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Speaker 5: The Source has had troubled trips and two of his

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Speaker 5: starts to his most recent starts, especially in the Bluegrass,

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Speaker 5: couldn't get where he wanted to be checked a little bit,

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Speaker 5: was bounced around and then found a gear when Pratt

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Speaker 5: was able to navigate through a pretty congested field in

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Speaker 5: the Toyota Bluegrass, uh And wound up catching Smile Happy

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Speaker 5: in the last quarter mile and actually one going away.

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Speaker 5: I think by two and quarter Langston's was actually charged down.

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Speaker 5: I just think this horse is sitting on a big

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Speaker 5: race and I like the fact he has Pratt. It's

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Speaker 5: it's a situation where you've got Chad Brown as the trainer,

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Speaker 5: one of the elite trainers in the country, if not

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Speaker 5: the world. But Pratt has has worked out some trips

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Speaker 5: in the Derby. Last year was with Hot Ride Charlie

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Speaker 5: finished third, was pushed to second when Medina Spirit was

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Speaker 5: decued from the win uh and then a couple of

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Speaker 5: years before that he had Country House.

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Speaker 2: It was a massive long shot. I can't remember that

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Speaker 2: horse's odds, but it was.

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Speaker 5: An extremely high number who wound up finishing second to

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Speaker 5: Maximum Security, who was also decued. So to the last

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Speaker 5: three years Pratt has worked out a trip. I mean,

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Speaker 5: this is a West Coast jockey who was basically was

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Speaker 5: working out of Delmar in Santa Anita coming to church

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Speaker 5: Down's Midwest. You know, at Midwest racing is different than

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Speaker 5: the West Coast, then it is the East Coast, and

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Speaker 5: then it is in the south southeastern part of the

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Speaker 5: country with Gulfstream. He's adapted and is able to navigate

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Speaker 5: these massive fields and put this horse in a good position.

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Speaker 5: So I just don't think that this horse is going

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Speaker 5: to have any problems coming from that position. You alluded

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Speaker 5: to it before. It's a favorable spot. You don't want

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Speaker 5: to be on the rail, you don't want to be

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Speaker 5: way outside in the middle. There he's gonna be able

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Speaker 5: to determine and dictate where he wants to go. So

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Speaker 5: I think that's going to be a he's gonna be

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Speaker 5: tough to be and I think, as Monique mentioned as well,

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Speaker 5: we have not discussed this together privately. We did not

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Speaker 5: connect up here in Toronto for coffee to discuss who

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Speaker 5: we're picking. Side Knife is another horse that I feel

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Speaker 5: is good value right now. He's twenty to one. It's

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Speaker 5: one of three horses that train in Brad Cox as

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Speaker 5: in this Grace Cox and Drew Floran. Drew, who's going

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Speaker 5: to be riding him, teamed up last year on Mandeliu,

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Speaker 5: who finished second in the derby but was moved up

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Speaker 5: to first after Medina Spirit was dec so they technically

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Speaker 5: won the derby on paper. Now, it's great to win

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Speaker 5: the derby obviously, but I'm pretty sure that they are

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Speaker 5: going to want to win this thing. Fair and square

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Speaker 5: straight up not have to you know, go to drug

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Speaker 5: tests and things like that and other factors that could

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Speaker 5: come into a potential post race dq. That being said,

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Speaker 5: this horse is I think sitting on another good race.

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Speaker 5: I mean he's coming well. He's run six times, three wins,

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Speaker 5: two losses, finish out of the money only once.

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Speaker 2: He's also the he's also.

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Speaker 5: By which in buy and horse racing means he's the

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Speaker 5: son of gun Runner, who's a Breeders Cup Classic winner.

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Speaker 5: Gun Runner got better as he got older. Gun Runner

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Speaker 5: got the distance, and this isn't a mile and a

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Speaker 5: quarter race. The majority of these horses, if not all

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Speaker 5: of them, have never run this distance, so he has

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Speaker 5: the blood lines there to maybe improve off that nice

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Speaker 5: win in the Arkansas Derby and get a good position.

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Speaker 2: So I think that's a horse that is going to

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Speaker 2: be a value.

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Speaker 5: He's probably gonna go up close to fifteen to twenty

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Speaker 5: to one, and I'll just throw in a quick little

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Speaker 5: one for your exactly place, Barbara Road going to be

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Speaker 5: a massive price thirty to one or longer. I'm sure

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Speaker 5: he's run a lot eight eight races, two wins, four

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Speaker 5: losses and a third, so he's in the money seven

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Speaker 5: of eight times.

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Speaker 2: It's a pretty good number.

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Speaker 5: There's a fifteen thousand dollars weenling purchase who has made

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Speaker 5: more than six hundred and fifty ks so far in

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Speaker 5: his first eight starts. He doesn't win races. His speed

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Speaker 5: figures are ten to fifteen points lower than everybody else

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Speaker 5: in the field pretty much, but he's always there at

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Speaker 5: the end. This horse tries hard. He's going to be

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Speaker 5: a fan favorite on race day. He's going to be

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Speaker 5: used in your in exotics for your super plays trifectas.

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Speaker 5: He's going to be coming running late. This is a

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Speaker 5: horse you do not want to leave off your superfecta

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Speaker 5: in your trifecta tickets because he's going to pick up

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Speaker 5: the pieces late as all these other horses tire, and

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Speaker 5: he's gonna be coming down the lane. So I think

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Speaker 5: if you're gonna throw a horse in there for a

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Speaker 5: long shot in your exoeutics, if you want to play

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Speaker 5: a nice whether it's ten dollars or one hundred dollars

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Speaker 5: place beat for third, he's the horse you want to

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Speaker 5: play because he's going to give you a nice payout

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Speaker 5: if he does come through there very nice.

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Speaker 6: Our experts are in agreement number sixteen Horse cyber Knife

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Speaker 6: currently at twenty to one to win the Kentucky Derby,

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Speaker 6: and then ten horse Zan and one of the heavy

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Speaker 6: favorites at three to one, so we shall see. That's

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Speaker 6: rare to do is as Jeremy said, neither Monique or

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Speaker 6: Jeremy came on previously and had previous discussion, so fascinated

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Speaker 6: to see how it plays out. As a reminder, the

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Speaker 6: Action Network Podcast is back on Friday with two more

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Speaker 6: episodes for you. We'll have our exhaustive Kentucky Derby betting

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Speaker 6: preview episode with our friend Sean Zarillo out first thing

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Speaker 6: Friday morning, plus our preview of Saturday's card for UFC

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Speaker 6: two seventy four for Jeremy Pond, Monique Vague, Brendan glass Sheeen.

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Speaker 6: Thanks for tuning in, everybody, Best of luck with your

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Speaker 6: bets this weekend of the Kentucky Derby, and like we mentioned,

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Speaker 6: we'll join you next time on the Action Network Podcast