1 00:00:00,640 --> 00:00:06,440 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. All the work, all 2 00:00:06,440 --> 00:00:12,040 Speaker 1: the talk, all the handicapping is done. It's time for history. 3 00:00:13,400 --> 00:00:18,200 Speaker 1: They're all in line, We're ready for the start. There 4 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 1: in the breakness rank. Another two legs more back to 5 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:25,520 Speaker 1: win wind on the turn begin they come the cups 6 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:27,480 Speaker 1: drive near the back of the pen. As the field 7 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: turns for home. Hendy Perch doing opening on the outside, 8 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: trying first drive and they come to the final blong 9 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 1: get fling on what proven on to the line, but 10 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 1: a possible result here Welsh that break this. 11 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm Sean Zerulo, 12 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 2: joyed today by Mike Conti to help you break down 13 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 2: racing at Pimlico this weekend one hundred and fiftieth running 14 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 2: of the Preakness Stakes Race thirteen on Saturday seven to 15 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 2: one pm post time. We're gonna take you through the 16 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 2: field of nine that will be running. Also discuss Friday's 17 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 2: black Eyed season mistakes, talk about some undercard bets on Saturday. 18 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 2: Give you our exactest trifectus, think of out how we're 19 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 2: building out of our exotic tickets and they get you 20 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 2: out of here hopefully with some winners. For this Weekend 21 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 2: CONTI welcome back to the show. Just wanted to get 22 00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:19,240 Speaker 2: your take on the Kentucky Derby and he thoughts that 23 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 2: you might have considering the number two journalism wasn't initially 24 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:25,679 Speaker 2: going to run in here, but his connections watched them 25 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:28,320 Speaker 2: train in the week after the Derby like what they saw, 26 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:32,160 Speaker 2: clearly because they ended up entering him in the Preakness. Ultimately, 27 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,440 Speaker 2: sovereignty your Kentucky Derby winner, not in this field. He's 28 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 2: at Saratoga pointing towards the Belmont So journalism eight to 29 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:41,679 Speaker 2: five on the morning line. Do you think that's a 30 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 2: fair price? Do you think that's a short price considering 31 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:46,840 Speaker 2: he ran two weeks ago. I'm inclined to believe that 32 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 2: he should be closer to even money. So what are 33 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 2: your thoughts on journalism relative this field and then the 34 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 2: pace that we have in this field? It seems like 35 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 2: we have at least three pay setters who should give 36 00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 2: journalism an honest run in front of him. 37 00:01:57,440 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 1: First one, it's great to be back Sean. Second, I 38 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: have to say that I texted our producer Matt Mitchell 39 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 1: after the Derby and said, next year, before we record, 40 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 1: remind me to not throw out the horse that finished 41 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 1: second in the Florida Derby, because this is the second 42 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 1: time in the last five years that the horse who 43 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 1: finished second in the Florida Derby went on to win 44 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:24,119 Speaker 1: the Kentucky Derby. Mage did it, and now we have sovereignty. 45 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 1: The Florida Derby has always been a key prep raise. 46 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:28,800 Speaker 1: I'm kicking myself, not that I threw him out, but 47 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:31,799 Speaker 1: that I didn't have him high enough on my list 48 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:35,160 Speaker 1: to be considered a win contender. So shout out Matt Mitchell. 49 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:37,920 Speaker 1: We will make sure that next year we bring the 50 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 1: people the number two finisher in the Florida Derby as 51 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 1: a top selection in the Kentucky Derby, especially because the 52 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: horse who won the Florida Derby was going to be 53 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 1: my top selection in the Kentucky Derby. And when that 54 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 1: horse didn't run, it should have bumped sovereignty up on 55 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 1: my board. Didn't anyway out your pants straight right to 56 00:02:56,520 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 1: pant stright, Yes exactly, that's exactly right on journalism. Look, 57 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 1: anybody who had questions about this horse can no longer 58 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:08,799 Speaker 1: have questions about this horse. He didn't get the cleanest 59 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 1: of trips, you know, I think he was obviously one 60 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 1: of the most talented horses in the field. Journalism ran 61 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 1: a fantastic race. Can't take anything away from the way 62 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:20,400 Speaker 1: that he ran. Sovereignty just ran a better race on 63 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 1: Derby Day. If you're telling me in this field, though, 64 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 1: that I'm going to get eight to five on Journalism, 65 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 1: I get excited by that price. And typically as a 66 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 1: horse player, eight to five doesn't get me very excited. 67 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 1: In this instance, it would get me really excited. I'm 68 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 1: gonna be surprised if come post time he's not closer 69 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: to even money, maybe even click below to four to five. 70 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm really glad you said that. You know, if 71 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 2: this was your Kentucky Derby field, and even if we 72 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 2: didn't have if we still had the questions around journalism 73 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:50,840 Speaker 2: that we had going into the Derby. But if this 74 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 2: was a field of nine for the Derby, we didn't 75 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 2: see the race that he ran two weeks ago, what 76 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 2: would he have been in this race four to five? 77 00:03:56,840 --> 00:03:59,680 Speaker 2: But instead, because he crossed the finish line second, now 78 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 2: he's eight to five. Now, in these triple Crown races, 79 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 2: there's going to be horses that are over bet Sandman 80 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 2: for instance. You know the TikTok horse is gonna draw 81 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 2: a lot of attention. Pay Billy, the local horse gonna 82 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 2: draw a lot of attention. Maybe tickets prices to the 83 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:17,480 Speaker 2: point that he probably shouldn't be bet to, and as 84 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 2: a result, that's just gonna increase value on other horses. 85 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:21,920 Speaker 2: If you're a sports better, you're not a typical horse 86 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:24,159 Speaker 2: player listening to this podcast. I think it's important to 87 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:27,800 Speaker 2: translate fractional odds to money line odds or American odds. 88 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 2: Sometimes eight to five on journalism is plus one sixty 89 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 2: if I'm telling you this horse should be even money. 90 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 2: If you were betting a team in a baseball game 91 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:38,720 Speaker 2: or a hockey game that I am telling you is 92 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 2: even money and he's there, that team is plus one sixty, 93 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:45,040 Speaker 2: that's a max bet, right, Like you're placing a humongous 94 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 2: bet at an edge like that. We're saying there's a 95 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:50,479 Speaker 2: possibility he should be four to five or three to five. 96 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 2: I think even money is a fair price. To put 97 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,159 Speaker 2: him at eight to five would be an absolute gift. 98 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 2: But even money or better, I'm absolutely taking journalism to 99 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:01,240 Speaker 2: win and would put HI on top of all of 100 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 2: my tickets. Let's go through this field of nine to though, 101 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:05,600 Speaker 2: see what are their horses we think might have a 102 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:07,839 Speaker 2: chance to beat Journalism if he's not running his best 103 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 2: two weeks after the Kentucky Derby. I would say that's 104 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 2: probably the most significant concern is the short turnaround. Only 105 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 2: a couple of other horses coming back here from the Derby, 106 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:20,719 Speaker 2: but the number one we'll start with Goal Oriented. He 107 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 2: I think is the biggest wildcard in this race because 108 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:26,400 Speaker 2: he's extremely lightly raced, didn't race at all as a 109 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 2: two year old, six to one on the morning line. 110 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 2: Trained by Bob Bafford, who's obviously had a ton of 111 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 2: success in the Triple Crown and a Pimlico in particular. 112 00:05:34,880 --> 00:05:36,840 Speaker 2: This will be one of the pacesetters in the race, 113 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:39,839 Speaker 2: and he's also ridden by Flavian Pratt, so going to 114 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 2: be to the front from the rail very lightly race 115 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:45,279 Speaker 2: though just this third lifetime start, as I said, has 116 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:48,760 Speaker 2: paired up ninety one speed figures though ninety one buyers 117 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 2: in back to back starts. It seems like he should 118 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 2: take a step forward off of that. How do you 119 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:56,159 Speaker 2: view the pace of this race where Goal Oriented will 120 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:58,919 Speaker 2: be in the early running and then are you tossing 121 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 2: him or you use him underneath or do you view 122 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 2: him as potential likely win contender alongside Journalism. 123 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, look, I think you mentioned it, Sean. You know, 124 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:10,960 Speaker 1: Bafford's had ultimate success to Freakness. He's won it eight times, 125 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:15,839 Speaker 1: and interestingly enough, goal Oriented kind of reminds me of 126 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:18,360 Speaker 1: another Bafford horse who won the Preakness a few years 127 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:22,839 Speaker 1: back in National Treasure. He is somebody goal oriented who 128 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 1: I will be using. I think he's going to be 129 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:28,359 Speaker 1: forwardly placed and frankly he's Flavian's going to have to 130 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:31,559 Speaker 1: send out of the gate to get good position being 131 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 1: down on the rail. I'm not sure he's the fastest 132 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:37,480 Speaker 1: horse in the field, so I don't know if he 133 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:40,200 Speaker 1: would organically get the lead or if he's going to 134 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:43,719 Speaker 1: be forced to use some of that initial early speed 135 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 1: to get to the lead. But for all of the 136 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:49,640 Speaker 1: reasons that you've mentioned, he's absolutely a horse that I'm 137 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:52,480 Speaker 1: going to be using. In all honesty, before I did 138 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:55,880 Speaker 1: my deep dive into the race, I actually thought that 139 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 1: goal oriented, if I was going to choose someone to 140 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:01,440 Speaker 1: beat Journalism, that it was going to be goal oriented. 141 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:06,039 Speaker 1: While that's not entirely the case anymore, I still do 142 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:09,880 Speaker 1: really like this horse in here. And clearly they thought 143 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:12,120 Speaker 1: a lot of the horse, even though he never ran 144 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 1: it too, because he was triple Crown nominated, right, you 145 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 1: have to be triple Crown nominated coming as as a 146 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 1: late two year old, and so they thought a lot 147 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 1: of this horse. They thought that he had a lot 148 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:23,679 Speaker 1: of talent. I think he's going to be forwardly placed 149 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 1: in a race that I think there's a lot of 150 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 1: pace questions in terms of who's going to get the 151 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:34,240 Speaker 1: lead in here, and again you mentioned Flavian Pratt. I 152 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 1: would argue he's the best jockey in the world right 153 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 1: now and it probably has been for the last twelve 154 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:40,920 Speaker 1: or so months. He shows up on big days, wins 155 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 1: big races, you know, Bafford and Flavian twenty six percent 156 00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 1: when they're you know, paired up. So one that you. 157 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 2: Have to use only question regarding goal oriented back for 158 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 2: you is whether if Rodriguez were healthy, because the same 159 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 2: connections as Rodriguez. If Rodriguez were healthy, Rodriguez the better 160 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 2: horse likely or better paysetter as well. Do you think 161 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 2: they would have been running goal goal oriented in this 162 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 2: spot and putting those two head to head. 163 00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 1: It's a really good question, and I thought I'll you 164 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 1: know a lot about that, frankly, because if Rodriguez was 165 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 1: in this race, I would have had him very high 166 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 1: on my board, and so, you know, I think that's 167 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 1: a great question, Sean. And just given the fact that 168 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 1: Rodriguez had already faced and beaten Steaks Company, I would 169 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:30,720 Speaker 1: have had Rodriguez ahead of Goal Oriented. I think they 170 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:33,840 Speaker 1: probably still would have run goal Oriented in here because 171 00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:35,840 Speaker 1: I think that they saw the talent from him. He 172 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:38,319 Speaker 1: just got a really late start, right, I mean, his 173 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 1: first start was in April. Now, interestingly enough, we talk about, 174 00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:46,280 Speaker 1: you know, the two week turnaround for journalism. While it 175 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 1: wasn't the Derby, it's still important to note that goal 176 00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 1: Oriented is also coming in off that same two week break. 177 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:56,440 Speaker 1: He ran on Derby Day on the undercard in a 178 00:08:56,640 --> 00:08:58,920 Speaker 1: in a not even in a stakes race, and so 179 00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:02,040 Speaker 1: it's the same turn and so the questions are the 180 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 1: same from a rest period as they are for journalism 181 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:06,600 Speaker 1: for goal Orient. 182 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:10,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, glad you pointed that out six to one, based 183 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:13,880 Speaker 2: off of the connections Bob Baffert and Flavian Pratt, not 184 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:17,320 Speaker 2: necessarily the speed scores, and what he's done today first 185 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:20,559 Speaker 2: time against graded stakes competition on Saturday, the number two 186 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:22,920 Speaker 2: Journalism as I said, eight to five on the morning line, 187 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:25,679 Speaker 2: the top three speed figures in the field one oh 188 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:27,839 Speaker 2: two in each of his past two races, one to 189 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 2: eight in the race prior, he handled the big field 190 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 2: fine in the Derby, as I said, I think he 191 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 2: should be even money, if not four to five or 192 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:37,440 Speaker 2: three to five. And if this were the Derby field 193 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 2: two weeks ago and we had not seen that Derby, 194 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:42,199 Speaker 2: he would be three to five. Clearly going into the 195 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 2: race to express the only concern going to have him 196 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 2: as my top win contender, considering using him alongside other horses' 197 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:52,440 Speaker 2: as bees, depending upon what else I find in the 198 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:55,000 Speaker 2: pick five pick four sequences, how much I want to spread. 199 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 2: There are two backups I'm interested in using this race. 200 00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 2: But he's clearly my top win contender. I imagine he's 201 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 2: yours as well. 202 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:04,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, he's my top win contender. To your point in 203 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 1: terms of you know, multi race structure, I will say 204 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 1: that there will be pick fours and pick fives that 205 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:11,960 Speaker 1: I single Journalism in, and then there will be pick 206 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: fours and pick fives that I use other horses in 207 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 1: and spread a little bit deeper. In this race, and 208 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:21,520 Speaker 1: you know, not including journalism, but look, he's the most 209 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:25,440 Speaker 1: proven horse. To your point, he's got three triple digit buyers. 210 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 1: You know, if he had beaten sovereignty in the Derby, 211 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:31,840 Speaker 1: we would talk, we would be talking about, you know, 212 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:36,000 Speaker 1: morning line three or four to five at best. Because 213 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:38,319 Speaker 1: of that, we're getting good price. We've talked about it already. 214 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:40,120 Speaker 1: I don't think either one of us thinks that we're 215 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:43,080 Speaker 1: getting eight to five. If we do, that's an absolute dream. 216 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:45,839 Speaker 1: He's the most talented horse in the field. And I'll 217 00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 1: be honest, I don't know how much talent he's facing 218 00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 1: in this field in comparison to the Derby. And it's 219 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:53,840 Speaker 1: obviously less than half the size of the Derby field. 220 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 1: So you know, a lot of things pointing in the direction. 221 00:10:57,200 --> 00:10:59,599 Speaker 1: The question is, you know, the two week turnaround, but 222 00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 1: there's annumber of horses in this field that are also 223 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:04,320 Speaker 1: coming in off a two week turnaround, so you know, 224 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 1: is that evening out the playing field a little bit more? 225 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 2: Number three American Promise trained by de Wayne Lucas. This 226 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 2: horse is expected by the pace projector to be directly 227 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:18,160 Speaker 2: behind the number one goal oriented up near the early read, 228 00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 2: but a little bit more tactically in behind him. Not 229 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:23,839 Speaker 2: sure he's as fast as goal oriented or the other 230 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 2: pacesetter that we'll get to in a little bit, but 231 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:28,200 Speaker 2: he has run ten times. This is the most heavily 232 00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 2: raised horse in the race. It does seem like d Wayne, 233 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:32,960 Speaker 2: who's getting a little bit up there at age, is 234 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:34,960 Speaker 2: just kind of throwing darts at the board hoping he 235 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:38,240 Speaker 2: can hit the board in a big stakes race one 236 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:40,920 Speaker 2: more time. I'm against the American promise. I'm tossing him. 237 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:44,320 Speaker 2: Didn't really look like he ran particularly well in the derby. 238 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:46,560 Speaker 2: What's your thoughts on using the number three here? 239 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you, Sean. He's a toss for me. 240 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:52,960 Speaker 1: You know. The question is is like, oh, was it 241 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:55,440 Speaker 1: the slop that he didn't like? Well, he's run on 242 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:58,719 Speaker 1: a sloppy track twice, both times finished way out of it. 243 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 1: He ran on a muddy tra down at Oakland where 244 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 1: he actually won. That was his maiden breaking score. You know, 245 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:06,200 Speaker 1: at this point, when you have a three year old, 246 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:08,559 Speaker 1: this early in the three year old season, who already 247 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 1: has ten starts under his belt and he's coming back 248 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 1: in two weeks, just not something that I love and 249 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:17,280 Speaker 1: I don't think he's the fastest horse in this race. 250 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 1: I know the pace Projector has goal Oriented. We'll talk 251 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 1: about another horse later who I actually think is faster 252 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 1: than goal Oriented that's going to be on the speed 253 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 1: and I don't think that if American Promise doesn't get 254 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:29,679 Speaker 1: the lead, I don't know though, that he's going to 255 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:33,120 Speaker 1: be able to pass horses. And so for me, he's 256 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 1: a toss at a big price. 257 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, I was crunched a little bit out of the 258 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:38,360 Speaker 2: starting gate and the Derby didn't get the best trip. 259 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:41,199 Speaker 2: But just do not like his style or his talent 260 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 2: necessarily for the race. And that's to say. He does 261 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:45,439 Speaker 2: have a career high and ninety five buyer speed figure, 262 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:47,679 Speaker 2: which is in the upper half of this field. As 263 00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 2: I mentioned goal Oriented, his career highs ninety one's in 264 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:53,199 Speaker 2: back to back races Journalism has broken one hundred a 265 00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 2: few times. A horse that we do not have pace 266 00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 2: data on, we do not have speed figures on, is 267 00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 2: the number four Heart of Honor, who recently lost to 268 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 2: Admire Daytona in the UA Derby. Admire Daytona did not 269 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:07,360 Speaker 2: run at all in the Kentucky Derby, did not look 270 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:10,320 Speaker 2: like he belonged in the field Heart of Honor. The 271 00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:12,720 Speaker 2: number four also a toss for me. There's horses I'd 272 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:14,679 Speaker 2: rather use underneath. What are your thoughts on them? 273 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:18,040 Speaker 1: I'm the same way. You know, we haven't seen Look, 274 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:20,960 Speaker 1: you know, I have to kind of eat a little 275 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:23,080 Speaker 1: bit of my own words here. Like I was on 276 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 1: lux Or Cafe. I don't know whether the Luxor got 277 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:27,720 Speaker 1: the best trip. Even if he got a great trip, 278 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:29,560 Speaker 1: was he going to win the derby? I'm not sure. 279 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:33,320 Speaker 1: We've seen these horses now ship over from overseas, you know, 280 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 1: the last couple of years, some of them with a 281 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 1: lot of hype behind them, and they just haven't run 282 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 1: well in the American Triple Crown races. And so for 283 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:43,320 Speaker 1: a lot of those reasons, Heart of Honor is a 284 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:44,280 Speaker 1: toss for me as well. 285 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:47,480 Speaker 2: Number five Pay Billy, the local horse winner of the 286 00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 2: Federico Tesso paired up in ninety four, had a eighty 287 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:54,199 Speaker 2: five in that race, which is a career best. So again, 288 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:56,560 Speaker 2: you know below ninety one of the lower scores in 289 00:13:56,600 --> 00:14:00,440 Speaker 2: this field. Well, I think being overlay, consider he's the 290 00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:02,559 Speaker 2: local horse, and the local horses tend to get bet 291 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:06,120 Speaker 2: it Pimico. Local horses get bet everywhere. The Peter Pan 292 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 2: winner always gets bet in the Beaumont Stakes. But your 293 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 2: thoughts on pay Billy and whether you're using the five 294 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:13,520 Speaker 2: at twenty to one, I think twenty to one is 295 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:15,320 Speaker 2: even too short for him. You could make him fifty 296 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:17,440 Speaker 2: to one or ninety nine to one. I'm probably still 297 00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:18,320 Speaker 2: not considering him. 298 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:22,000 Speaker 1: What about you, I'm again in agreement with you. I 299 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 1: think when you look at his buyer speed figures, he's 300 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 1: just a class below this field. Yes, he's a local horse. 301 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 1: It would be a great story, it would be a 302 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 1: lot of fun. That being said, I don't think that 303 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 1: he has the talent to compete at this level. He's 304 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:39,840 Speaker 1: never run in the graded stakes competition, and even the 305 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:42,120 Speaker 1: horses that he's run against, a lot of them have 306 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 1: not come back to win additional races afterwards, which is 307 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 1: another thing that I look at when I'm looking at 308 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 1: not only the class of the competition, but what have 309 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 1: they done after and pay Billy none of his rivals 310 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 1: have come back to really win. So for a lot 311 00:14:56,920 --> 00:14:58,840 Speaker 1: of reasons that you've mentioned, and some of those Sean, 312 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 1: he's a toss for me as well. 313 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:03,240 Speaker 2: Three four and five we've tossed from a nine horse 314 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 2: race using the other six in some ways. But two 315 00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 2: I'm relatively you gonna save for trifecta. Is that are 316 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:13,760 Speaker 2: shorter prices that I'm going against costme with sovereignty. In 317 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 2: the Kentucky Derby, there's a horse I'm repeating that action 318 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:18,480 Speaker 2: against Year in the Preakness. But before we get to him, 319 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 2: the number six, River Thames maybe my most intriguing backup 320 00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 2: in this race. I really think he fits for a 321 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 2: lot of reasons. He was beaten by East Avenue and 322 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:30,600 Speaker 2: Burnham Square in the Bluegrass, but Burnham Square, who I 323 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 2: picked in the Derby, had probably the toughest trip of 324 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:36,160 Speaker 2: any horse in the Derby ultimately, and he lost by 325 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,880 Speaker 2: neck the sovereignty your Kentucky Derby winner in the Fountain 326 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 2: of Youth, He's gonna face other pace pressure up front 327 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:45,560 Speaker 2: with the one, the three, and the eight, which we'll 328 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 2: get to you eventually, but I think we'll be in 329 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 2: that second flight of horses if he can sit tactically 330 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:52,600 Speaker 2: and if you can get the distance. I think River 331 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 2: Tames is uber talented and very capable of finishing in 332 00:15:57,080 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 2: the exacta if not winning the race at nine to two, 333 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 2: So this might be my top underneath selection. There's another 334 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 2: horse that we'll get to in a second that I'm 335 00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 2: kind of back and forth on, but River Thames, aside 336 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 2: from journalism, I do view as a top win contender 337 00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 2: in this race. He's more of a bee horse for me. 338 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 2: But when I'm certainly using what are your thoughts on 339 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 2: River Thames ridden by erat Orties? 340 00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:21,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, so I actually had a Derby future bet on 341 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:23,160 Speaker 1: River Thames from the beginning of this year. I think 342 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 1: Derby pool number two or three, I forget what it 343 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,480 Speaker 1: was now. So when they decided that they weren't going 344 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 1: to run him in the Derby, I obviously was a 345 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 1: little bit crushed inside or my money was definitely lit 346 00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 1: on fire at that point. I've always thought very highly 347 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:40,080 Speaker 1: of this horse. I really like this horse. I went 348 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 1: back what I will say that I didn't love about 349 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:46,480 Speaker 1: his Bluegrass, and I watched it multiple times, and I 350 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 1: watched the head on is he never got to East 351 00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 1: Avenue and we saw East Avenue collapse from a pace 352 00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 1: perspective in the Derby, But he never passed East Avenue 353 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,720 Speaker 1: in that race, and he had every opportunit tunity two. 354 00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:04,680 Speaker 1: And so my question with him is is he more 355 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:08,159 Speaker 1: of a one paced horse like he's not the deep closer, 356 00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:10,239 Speaker 1: so he's not gonna have a huge late kick, But 357 00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 1: does he have enough of a kick to go by late. 358 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 1: I'm still pretty high on him. I'm not sold though 359 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 1: that nine to two is a good price on him 360 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:20,840 Speaker 1: for me. I'd be if his odds float up, you know, 361 00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 1: five to one, six to one, somewhere in that range 362 00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:25,120 Speaker 1: gets a little bit more intriguing. I know that we're 363 00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:29,800 Speaker 1: talking you know, minor details here, but I agree with 364 00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 1: you he's a bee. I will be using him, especially 365 00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:34,640 Speaker 1: like I said in you know, pick fours and Pick 366 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:37,439 Speaker 1: fives that I'm not singling journalism. I will definitely be 367 00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 1: using the six River Tames. But there's another horse that 368 00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 1: we'll talk about shortly that I like even more. 369 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:48,640 Speaker 2: Number seven is before we move on the number six 370 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:52,480 Speaker 2: River Tames. I just want to mention so he ninety 371 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 2: four ninety five speed scores in his last two races. 372 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:58,160 Speaker 2: Pairing those up seems like he could jump up from 373 00:17:58,200 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 2: those two gets a little bit encouraging. 374 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:00,400 Speaker 1: This speedcores. 375 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:02,919 Speaker 2: But the number seven Sandman as a career best of 376 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:05,439 Speaker 2: a ninety nine in the Arkansas Derby. This is the 377 00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:07,359 Speaker 2: TikTok horse, the one who's drawn a lot of extra 378 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,160 Speaker 2: betting attention to both the Derby and likely the Preakness 379 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 2: as well. That's why I thought he was an overlay 380 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 2: in the Derby. I think he will be in the Preakness. Two. 381 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:17,560 Speaker 2: Do not like him at four to one as the 382 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 2: deepest closer in the field and not the best closer 383 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:23,120 Speaker 2: in the field, So going to be behind Journalism, getting 384 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:26,920 Speaker 2: second run on journalism and not as fast as journalism either. 385 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 2: Number seven Sandman not a toss for me. A horse 386 00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 2: I'll use third on trifectas likely, but probably not in 387 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:37,159 Speaker 2: the exact What are your thoughts on Sandman? 388 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:43,719 Speaker 1: I agree. Look, I think from a horse racing fan perspective, 389 00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:45,919 Speaker 1: it's great to see him run back because there is 390 00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:49,359 Speaker 1: so much publicity notoriety with this horse going on, which 391 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:51,199 Speaker 1: I love, and it's great for the game and to 392 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:54,920 Speaker 1: expand the game to reach new people. From a betting perspective, 393 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 1: four to one is a terrible price on him and 394 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 1: not one that I would be considering. I'm not sure 395 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:03,440 Speaker 1: We've talked a bunch about the pace in this race. 396 00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:06,879 Speaker 1: I'm not sure that there's enough pace for Sandman to 397 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 1: run into in this race. He is the the deep closer. 398 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 1: I mean you look at his starts. You know. In 399 00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 1: the Derby he was eighteen at a nineteen at first call. 400 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:19,680 Speaker 1: He was eight at a nine in the Arkansas Derby 401 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 1: at first call. He was nine out of thirteen in 402 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 1: the Rebel at first call. He was nine out of 403 00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:26,840 Speaker 1: nine in the Southwest Stakes at first call. So he's 404 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:29,480 Speaker 1: always going to be really far back, which means he 405 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:32,159 Speaker 1: needs pace to run into. I'm not sure he's going 406 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 1: to get enough pace to run into he does have 407 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:37,879 Speaker 1: that closing kick. It is interesting to me too to 408 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:41,480 Speaker 1: note that his jockey from the last two starts, Jose 409 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:44,719 Speaker 1: ortiz Irad's brother who rode him both in the Kentucky 410 00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:48,360 Speaker 1: Derby and the Arkansas Dirkey Derby, jumps off of Sandman 411 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 1: onto another horse, and we get Hall of Famer Johnny 412 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: v on Sandman. But the fact that Jose is going elsewhere, 413 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 1: and Jose is one of the hottest jockeys in twenty 414 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 1: twenty five having an absolutely amazing year, makes me think 415 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:03,720 Speaker 1: even less of Sandman in this spot. 416 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:06,879 Speaker 2: And it'll upgrade probably for you the next horse in 417 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:08,919 Speaker 2: a second. Just want to get your thoughts on Johnny 418 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 2: v riding Sandman. Does that make you think Sandman going 419 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:13,560 Speaker 2: to be a little bit more forward in this race? 420 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 2: Is he even capable of running in that style? Or 421 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 2: is it just a pure one round closer and the 422 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:19,640 Speaker 2: jockey doesn't necessarily matter. 423 00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:22,440 Speaker 1: I think it's more of the ladder Sean. I think 424 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:25,520 Speaker 1: he's a pure one run closer, you know. I mean 425 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 1: his maiden score at Saratoga, the you know, first call 426 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,480 Speaker 1: again though he was six out of seven horses. By 427 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:34,200 Speaker 1: second call, he was only two and a half lengths 428 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:37,359 Speaker 1: off the pace. I still don't think that's what he's 429 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 1: meant to do, what he wants to do, So I 430 00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 1: still think he's going to be the one run I 431 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:43,399 Speaker 1: don't know though that Johnny via a board is going 432 00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 1: to put him in any bit of a different position. 433 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,320 Speaker 2: Jose Ertiz jumping off of Sandman jumping on the number 434 00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:52,480 Speaker 2: eight clever again by speed figures, this is the biggest 435 00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:55,520 Speaker 2: contender in the biggest threat to journalism in this race. 436 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:57,479 Speaker 2: Ran a one to one buyer in the hot springs 437 00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:00,359 Speaker 2: on March thirtieth, went gate to wire. The only figure 438 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:03,760 Speaker 2: competitive with journalism horse by American Pharaoh, So we know 439 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:06,160 Speaker 2: he likes the distance, you know, he will probably take 440 00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 2: well to the track as well. His speed scores, I 441 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 2: believe have improved in every single race too, So you 442 00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:14,480 Speaker 2: just like to see that progression and he may be 443 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,160 Speaker 2: the speed of the speed. And here do you think 444 00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:19,679 Speaker 2: Clever again is capable of getting to the front wiring 445 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:20,119 Speaker 2: this field? 446 00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,960 Speaker 1: I do, especially from his post position. And I went 447 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:26,400 Speaker 1: back and watched obviously all three of his starts. Again 448 00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:30,679 Speaker 1: another relatively lightly raced horse in this field. But you 449 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 1: watch that that Hot Springs Stakes race and he set 450 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:39,639 Speaker 1: pretty modest fractions. They weren't slow by any stretch of 451 00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:43,320 Speaker 1: the imagination. And then Jose on the turn is looking 452 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 1: under his arm, under his shoulder. One of the best 453 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 1: feelings as a better when your jockey does that, because 454 00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:52,520 Speaker 1: you know that that jockey believes he's got plenty of 455 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:56,360 Speaker 1: horse left for the stretch drive. And Jose did he 456 00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:58,240 Speaker 1: you know, I think maybe he hit the horse once 457 00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:01,199 Speaker 1: with the whip, but he you know, opened up in 458 00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:04,080 Speaker 1: the lane to end up winning by four. I do 459 00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:08,199 Speaker 1: think that this is the biggest threat to journalism in 460 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:11,760 Speaker 1: Clever Again. I personally think that Clever Again is going 461 00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 1: to have the lead. If he doesn't have the lead. 462 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 1: By having the post position number eight, he's gonna be 463 00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,880 Speaker 1: able to sit just off of whoever goes to the lead, 464 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,679 Speaker 1: to the inside of him and ideally sit a pretty 465 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,080 Speaker 1: perfect trip and Jose will be able to use this 466 00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:29,720 Speaker 1: horse as he needs to. I really like him in 467 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,840 Speaker 1: this spot. To your point, he's only improved on his 468 00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:35,800 Speaker 1: buyer speed figures. He's making his third start as a 469 00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:40,399 Speaker 1: three year old. You mentioned American pharaoh dam Sires Galileo. 470 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:45,160 Speaker 1: You know, distance is no concern whatsoever. I really do 471 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:46,600 Speaker 1: like him in here, and at five to one, I 472 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:48,480 Speaker 1: think you're getting a pretty fair price. 473 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:50,639 Speaker 2: See an A for you on all tickets. Is he 474 00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:53,959 Speaker 2: a be you know with journalism more so keyed? Or 475 00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 2: you're using him everywhere? Yeah? 476 00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 1: You know. So it's interesting, Sean, Like when I started 477 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: putting together Bet, I was trying to go back and forth. 478 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:05,240 Speaker 1: Do I put him as an a alongside of journalism 479 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:07,879 Speaker 1: or do I put journalism as the soul a? And 480 00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:11,240 Speaker 1: then you know have goal oriented River Thames and Clever 481 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,879 Speaker 1: again as my bees. And that's the direction that I 482 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:17,680 Speaker 1: ended up going as a bee. I still sit here 483 00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:19,879 Speaker 1: and I wonder should he be an a? I really 484 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,879 Speaker 1: do like Clever again, but again, to me, Journalism is 485 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,399 Speaker 1: by far and away the most talented and most proven 486 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:29,440 Speaker 1: horse in this race. The difference here is that Clever 487 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:33,199 Speaker 1: again has had that proper spacing in between races. So 488 00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 1: is it a spacing issue for journalism and coming back 489 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:39,320 Speaker 1: on short rest which gives Clever again the leg up 490 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:43,439 Speaker 1: on Journalism maybe, But again, Journalism to me is by 491 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:45,560 Speaker 1: far and away the most talented horse in this field, 492 00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:47,560 Speaker 1: and so that's why he would be the lone. A 493 00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:49,320 Speaker 1: Clever again would be a bee. 494 00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 2: I think we have the same issue, which is we 495 00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,679 Speaker 2: both view journalism as a very good value bet at 496 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:57,520 Speaker 2: eight to five. But handicapping this race, I kind of 497 00:23:57,560 --> 00:23:59,919 Speaker 2: fell in love with Clever again, and I kind of 498 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:01,639 Speaker 2: fell in love with River Tames a little bit, and 499 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,080 Speaker 2: I was like, I almost wish Journalism wasn't in here, 500 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:06,680 Speaker 2: so that there was another horse that was a favorite 501 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:08,440 Speaker 2: that I was like targeting against so I could bet 502 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:12,399 Speaker 2: these horses instead. Yeah, Clever again. Just the more I 503 00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 2: handicap these horses, the six and the eight kept popping 504 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:17,720 Speaker 2: up as horses I wanted to find and get in 505 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:19,600 Speaker 2: the money. We'll see if they can end up running 506 00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,880 Speaker 2: Journalism down but one horse who I actually am interested 507 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,959 Speaker 2: in at longer odds is the number nine Gozgar at 508 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:28,960 Speaker 2: twenty to one, purely because if you're going to compare 509 00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:31,800 Speaker 2: Sandman in four to one and Gozger at twenty to one, 510 00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:33,639 Speaker 2: and Gozger is going to be getting first run on 511 00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:37,199 Speaker 2: Sandman if there is any pace in here, he closed 512 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,960 Speaker 2: really strong in the Grade three Lexington. I think Gozger 513 00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:43,400 Speaker 2: at twenty to one could end up juicing up superfected 514 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 2: tickets trifecta tickets. Is he a horse you're gonna consider 515 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:46,560 Speaker 2: using underneath? 516 00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:50,680 Speaker 1: I would use him underneath in vertical wagers, so an 517 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:54,120 Speaker 1: exacts trifectus super fectus. I would not use him in 518 00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:57,159 Speaker 1: multi race wagers. And I actually do think Sean that 519 00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:00,320 Speaker 1: his price is also going to come down, which could 520 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,960 Speaker 1: drive up the prices of some of the others that 521 00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,399 Speaker 1: we've talked about in here. I agree with you twenty 522 00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:09,040 Speaker 1: to one, opposite of what you said about pay Billy, 523 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:11,480 Speaker 1: who probably should be closer to like forty or fifty 524 00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:13,920 Speaker 1: to one in here. Oscar in here, I don't think 525 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,439 Speaker 1: he should be above like twelve to one. Frankly, so 526 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:18,040 Speaker 1: I do think that we're going to see that price 527 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,960 Speaker 1: come down on Goscar. He's an interesting horse for sure. 528 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:26,000 Speaker 1: He definitely has significant improvement from a buyer speed for 529 00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,720 Speaker 1: your standpoint to be competitive in this field, which is 530 00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:31,880 Speaker 1: probably why is morning line odds were set at which 531 00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 1: they were. And again it's interesting to me to always 532 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 1: see when jockeys jump around. In Goscar's three career starts, 533 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,840 Speaker 1: he's had three different jockeys and now he's about to 534 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:45,520 Speaker 1: have his fourth career start with a fourth different jockey, 535 00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:49,040 Speaker 1: because Irad Ortiz sticks with the Todd Pletcher trainee of 536 00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:52,720 Speaker 1: River Thames. Not that there's anything wrong with Luis. Luis 537 00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,000 Speaker 1: is a great jock in his own right. It just 538 00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:58,480 Speaker 1: always begs the question why do jocks decide to move around. Yes, 539 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:02,879 Speaker 1: there's some connections at play with River Thames for Irad, 540 00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:05,640 Speaker 1: but if he felt like Oscar gave him the best 541 00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:08,200 Speaker 1: chance to win, he would have stayed here. So that's 542 00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:11,199 Speaker 1: another aspect for me where I lean a little bit 543 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,119 Speaker 1: further against Oscar in this spot. 544 00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 2: Of course, as we're tossing the three America Promise, the 545 00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,719 Speaker 2: Foreheart of Honor, the five pay Billy, our top win 546 00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 2: contender is the number two. Journalism and then a break 547 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 2: for me. The bees are River Tames and Clever Again. 548 00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:27,520 Speaker 2: Mike would also include the number one goal oriented in 549 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:29,639 Speaker 2: there as well. He's more of a c for me. 550 00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:31,919 Speaker 2: I doubt I'll end up using him. I certainly respect him. 551 00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:34,800 Speaker 2: I won't be surprised if he wins. I just think 552 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:37,000 Speaker 2: given the baff for connections, he'll be a little bit 553 00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:40,399 Speaker 2: over bet on Saturday, Mike, let's help the people build 554 00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:44,600 Speaker 2: out some exacta trifecta super tickets. If you want. My 555 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,320 Speaker 2: exacta gotta be pretty simple. The number two Journalism over 556 00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,960 Speaker 2: the number six River Tames and the number eight Clever Again. 557 00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 2: I'll probably reverse those and play it for a smaller amount. 558 00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:55,080 Speaker 2: In the event that one of the longer shot wins, 559 00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,400 Speaker 2: I'll probably play a six' eight exacta as well, too 560 00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:01,120 Speaker 2: in Case journalism does not run well two weeks off 561 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,119 Speaker 2: the layoff and ends up falling, back and then my 562 00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:05,879 Speaker 2: trifecta is going to be built out very. Similarly the 563 00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:07,760 Speaker 2: two over the, six and eight over the six and 564 00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:11,520 Speaker 2: eight the two or you, know that's the more simplistic, 565 00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:13,679 Speaker 2: one just using the exact. Horses if you want to 566 00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:15,760 Speaker 2: expand it out a little, bit WHICH i probably will 567 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:19,119 Speaker 2: would single the number two journalism on, top use the 568 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:22,119 Speaker 2: number Six River, thames the number Eight klever, again and 569 00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 2: the number Nine gazger in, second and then would include 570 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:28,960 Speaker 2: the one in the seven oriented In sandman on the third. 571 00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:32,360 Speaker 2: Line so two over six eight nine over one six 572 00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:34,800 Speaker 2: seven eight nine would be How i'd build out a 573 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,880 Speaker 2: trifecta with journalism on. Top and you could reverse AS 574 00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,440 Speaker 2: i said that first and second, line with the six 575 00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,439 Speaker 2: and the eight potentially winning journalism finishing in. Second if 576 00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,920 Speaker 2: you're looking for more, Price, MIKE i would imagine we're 577 00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:50,000 Speaker 2: building out tickets somewhat, similarly considering we have very similar 578 00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:53,479 Speaker 2: thoughts on these. Horses how narrow are you keeping your 579 00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,360 Speaker 2: trifectas in your? Exactas and which horses are you using? 580 00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,639 Speaker 1: Where, Yeah i'm going to go a little old school 581 00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:02,479 Speaker 1: with my exacta and just play a straight. Exacta i'm 582 00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:06,119 Speaker 1: going to journalism over eight clever. Again that's gonna be 583 00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:10,200 Speaker 1: my straight. Exacta try to extract as much value out 584 00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:12,920 Speaker 1: of my exacta AS i possibly, can and then WHEN 585 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:17,400 Speaker 1: i go to the, trifecta gonna play it two different, 586 00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:21,560 Speaker 1: ways but similar idea as the. Exacta i'm gonna play 587 00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:26,199 Speaker 1: just the Two journalism over the Eight clever, again and 588 00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,160 Speaker 1: then in the third, POSITION i will use the one goal, 589 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:33,280 Speaker 1: oriented the Six River, thames the Seven sandman and the Nine. 590 00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,520 Speaker 1: Goscer so that'll be the trifecta THAT i play for 591 00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:39,640 Speaker 1: a higher dollar amount because by having one horse and 592 00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,880 Speaker 1: first and one horse and, Second i'm just paying whatever 593 00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:45,680 Speaker 1: the base bet amount is times my four horses and. 594 00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:48,320 Speaker 1: Third as an, example IF i played a ten dollars, 595 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:52,760 Speaker 1: trifecta it would cost me forty. Dollars in that, INSTANCE 596 00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:56,840 Speaker 1: i will then play a you know savor trifecta if you, 597 00:28:56,920 --> 00:29:00,720 Speaker 1: will where it Has journalism on top and then all 598 00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,200 Speaker 1: of the other horses THAT i like in second and. 599 00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:06,400 Speaker 1: Third SO i would Have journalism on top of goal, 600 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:10,200 Speaker 1: oriented the one on top of the six river themes 601 00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:15,360 Speaker 1: on top Of clever again eight in, second and then in, 602 00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:19,520 Speaker 1: THIRD i would use those same three one goal oriented 603 00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,840 Speaker 1: six river. THEMES i would then also Include, sandman the, 604 00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,320 Speaker 1: seven Eight clever again in, third and then finally Nine 605 00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:29,240 Speaker 1: gosker in third position as. 606 00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:33,520 Speaker 2: Well it's very similar structure and can have similar opinions 607 00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:35,640 Speaker 2: and ended up with completely different. Structures but we have 608 00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:39,440 Speaker 2: somewhat similar structuring. There you, KNOW i should actually just 609 00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:43,200 Speaker 2: mention this on the. Pod if you bet horses, regularly 610 00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:45,320 Speaker 2: you're looking for something to help your thought. PROCESS i 611 00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:47,240 Speaker 2: used to spend hours just like staring at my notes 612 00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,320 Speaker 2: and staring at sheets and figuring out like what HORSES 613 00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:53,880 Speaker 2: i wanted a piece. TOGETHER i started INCORPORATING ai into 614 00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:55,760 Speaker 2: like my thought process and trying to put my thought 615 00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:58,640 Speaker 2: process on paper essentially WITH ai and having it like 616 00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:01,440 Speaker 2: tell me where my strong the opinions were and where the 617 00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:05,360 Speaker 2: connections were in the race. Days super efficient and incredibly 618 00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:09,040 Speaker 2: helpful in terms of like structuring, bets planning out my 619 00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:13,160 Speaker 2: betting for a, day incredibly. HELPFUL a use CASE i 620 00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:15,720 Speaker 2: wasn't expecting to find WITH, Ai so just wanted to 621 00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:17,920 Speaker 2: shout that out there in case anybody's looking for a 622 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,920 Speaker 2: way to maybe make their handicapping process more. Efficient it 623 00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,320 Speaker 2: actually like took my brain and kind of put it 624 00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:27,200 Speaker 2: on paper and into a. Model let's talk about The 625 00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:30,480 Speaker 2: Black Eyed Susan stakes On, Friday race. Thirteen On friday 626 00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:34,160 Speaker 2: at five point fifty four Pm eastern fast pace projection 627 00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:38,200 Speaker 2: for this race a field of, nine the, favorite the 628 00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:40,520 Speaker 2: number four running and gotten in For steve asked meson 629 00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:42,880 Speaker 2: five to two on the morning, line the number Three 630 00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:47,320 Speaker 2: margie's intention For Brad cox is three to. One, kanti 631 00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:50,240 Speaker 2: do you agree that this is a fast pace for this. 632 00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:54,120 Speaker 2: Race i'm planning on playing The Black Eyed Susan preakness. 633 00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:57,200 Speaker 2: Double we talked about journalism being a very easy single 634 00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:00,640 Speaker 2: potentially on the other end of that. Double so if 635 00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,080 Speaker 2: you're going to play The Black Eyed, susan how many 636 00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:05,480 Speaker 2: horses do you view in this field as top wing? 637 00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:07,920 Speaker 2: CONTENDERS i have three THAT i plan on talking, about 638 00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:10,480 Speaker 2: and then what other horses do you like using? Underneath 639 00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:13,600 Speaker 2: feel free to break down this race in whatever direction you'd, 640 00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:15,400 Speaker 2: like but please comment on the pace to begin. 641 00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:18,400 Speaker 1: With, yeah you, KNOW i do. AGREE i think there 642 00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:23,240 Speaker 1: will be decent pace in. Here i'm not sold that 643 00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:28,360 Speaker 1: it's going to be as hot as it's projected from time, 644 00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:32,400 Speaker 1: form AND i love the time form pace, projection and 645 00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,360 Speaker 1: SO i looked at this race a couple of different, 646 00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,360 Speaker 1: ways to be. Honest the top two based on morning 647 00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:41,000 Speaker 1: line ons who you mentioned the Three margins intention at 648 00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:43,080 Speaker 1: three to, one and then the morning line favorite number 649 00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:44,800 Speaker 1: four Run in and Gun in at five to, two 650 00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 1: they're both bees for me for different. Reasons the three 651 00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:53,760 Speaker 1: margies intention coming out of all state bred races at, 652 00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:58,160 Speaker 1: Fairgrounds So louisiana bread we don't see very many top 653 00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:00,880 Speaker 1: Tier louisiana. Breads it's nothing against they're breeding. Program they 654 00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:03,600 Speaker 1: have a great. Program but you, know this is a 655 00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:07,280 Speaker 1: massive step up for her in terms of. Class she's 656 00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:10,240 Speaker 1: never run against graded stakes. Competition and she's never run 657 00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:13,760 Speaker 1: against open company. Either if she had beaten open company 658 00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:17,000 Speaker 1: at some point in her, life, sure but her last 659 00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:20,160 Speaker 1: two races she wasn't even able to beat State bred. 660 00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,640 Speaker 1: Company the other big question THAT i have for her 661 00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:24,520 Speaker 1: a little bit less of a question because it's Brad. 662 00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,840 Speaker 1: Cox i'm never the biggest fan when a horse is 663 00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:30,920 Speaker 1: running OFF la six for the first, time just because 664 00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,680 Speaker 1: you don't know how the horse is going to. React 665 00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,880 Speaker 1: and she's coming OFF la six for the first. Time 666 00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:40,800 Speaker 1: again it's a Brad cox, trainee which upgrades her. Some 667 00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,280 Speaker 1: in my, book she's still A. B and then for 668 00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:48,560 Speaker 1: running and, GUNNING i just not super impressive to. Me 669 00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:52,360 Speaker 1: she ran third in The Fantasy, stakes but was really 670 00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:55,560 Speaker 1: far back nine and a half lengths and third the 671 00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,760 Speaker 1: top two blew out Ba field you, know she's got 672 00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:04,960 Speaker 1: wins At, indiana At Sam houston and At Sunland. Park 673 00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:10,040 Speaker 1: just not the toughest of competition that she's running, against 674 00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:13,360 Speaker 1: and five to two is far too short for. Me so, 675 00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:16,720 Speaker 1: again not gonna let her beat, me but not top 676 00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:20,200 Speaker 1: competition for. Me my top two selections in, Here my 677 00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:25,000 Speaker 1: top selection is actually the number seven and she's coming. 678 00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:26,800 Speaker 1: IN i, mean, look she's eight to one on the morning. 679 00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:31,240 Speaker 1: Line Trainer Brittany, russell who is a local legend down 680 00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:35,520 Speaker 1: in The, Baltimore maryland. Area you, know she's winning thirty 681 00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,440 Speaker 1: one percent of her races because she's typically around these smaller. 682 00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:42,560 Speaker 1: Tracks but she's a phenomenal horse person and getting irad on, 683 00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:46,120 Speaker 1: arties which to me is really. Interesting this is also 684 00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:50,400 Speaker 1: A micropoli. Horse for those that have Watched race for 685 00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:53,280 Speaker 1: The crown On, Netflix rapoli is one of the featured. 686 00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:57,760 Speaker 1: Owners he's a prominent owner also By, curlin So curlin 687 00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:01,000 Speaker 1: is the father of this. Horse curlin obviously has produced 688 00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:04,200 Speaker 1: many A Triple crown. Winner they, paid you, Know rapote 689 00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:08,439 Speaker 1: paid a pretty penny for, her and frankly her while 690 00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:11,600 Speaker 1: she ran against local horses At laurel last time out 691 00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:17,800 Speaker 1: in open stakes. Competition she ran second but just missed 692 00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:21,520 Speaker 1: and took a pretty good bump at the sixteenth pole 693 00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:25,000 Speaker 1: and was still able to get herself upright and re. 694 00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,440 Speaker 1: RALLY i really liked, her AND i think with a 695 00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:30,480 Speaker 1: clean trip and being more towards the outside With, irad 696 00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:32,799 Speaker 1: she should get a cleaner trip in, here and if 697 00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:35,640 Speaker 1: the paces as hot as, expected she would love to 698 00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:38,720 Speaker 1: close into a fast. Pace SO i was really high 699 00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:42,879 Speaker 1: on the number seven, replay and THEN i also liked 700 00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:45,120 Speaker 1: the number One liam and the dust six to, one 701 00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:50,439 Speaker 1: A Rudolph brissett horse Who i'll be honest two back 702 00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:54,480 Speaker 1: threw up just a massive clunker and made me feel, 703 00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:57,120 Speaker 1: like oh, boy is this really the horse you? Know 704 00:34:57,200 --> 00:35:00,520 Speaker 1: to go? On in that, race she was the time 705 00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:04,000 Speaker 1: favorite at five to, two but that was her first 706 00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:06,399 Speaker 1: start as a three year, old first start in three. 707 00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:11,040 Speaker 1: Months you know it clearly didn't run very, well especially 708 00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:15,200 Speaker 1: coming for, home But i'm. Okay she came, back ran 709 00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:19,400 Speaker 1: a really good second At keeenland over the. SLOP i 710 00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:22,440 Speaker 1: think if she continues to progress and continues to, mature 711 00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:24,400 Speaker 1: and she's going to be one that's closer to the 712 00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:26,959 Speaker 1: pace in. Here so if the pace isn't as hot 713 00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:30,160 Speaker 1: as is, expected she could sit just off that pace 714 00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:33,439 Speaker 1: and really get first. Run you, know at those, pace 715 00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:36,239 Speaker 1: horses get first jump on those closers at a really 716 00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:37,920 Speaker 1: good price at six to. One so those are going 717 00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:39,600 Speaker 1: to be my top two selections in The Black Eyed. 718 00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:43,160 Speaker 2: Susan, yeah the first two you mentioned the three in the. 719 00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:45,120 Speaker 2: Forum actually more so against the number four of The 720 00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:47,319 Speaker 2: Morning live Favorite running And. GUNNING i will be using 721 00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:50,759 Speaker 2: the number Three marsey's. Intention Brad cox has been dominant 722 00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:54,800 Speaker 2: after clamping horses a forty percent win, rate essentially first 723 00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:57,120 Speaker 2: time in his. BARN i don't know how many of 724 00:35:57,160 --> 00:36:00,360 Speaker 2: that forty percent is with removed, lasix so that's definitely 725 00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:02,040 Speaker 2: a point to keep in, mind probably why it's more 726 00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:04,279 Speaker 2: of a bee horse for. ME i really like the 727 00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:07,400 Speaker 2: number Six Paris lily probably is my top. Selection actually 728 00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:10,400 Speaker 2: Beat liam and The dust in the slop in their last, 729 00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:12,799 Speaker 2: race ahead of that horse every step of the. Way 730 00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:16,160 Speaker 2: it should be raining throughout most of the week down 731 00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:19,719 Speaker 2: At pimlico this week and On. Friday it looks like 732 00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:24,520 Speaker 2: the forecast will stop On saturday morning before The Preatness, 733 00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:26,960 Speaker 2: stakes so the track may dry out before The. Preakness 734 00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:29,719 Speaker 2: i'm expecting it to be a little bit softer for 735 00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:33,279 Speaker 2: The Black Eyed susan On. Friday would definitely upgrade the 736 00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:36,279 Speaker 2: number Six Paris lily if that were the, case and 737 00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:38,239 Speaker 2: then the number eight Of marth if that is a 738 00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:41,640 Speaker 2: fast pace as we're. EXPECTING i think A marth is 739 00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:44,120 Speaker 2: sitting in great position in the second flight of. HORSES 740 00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:45,960 Speaker 2: a little bit worried about the, distance BUT i do 741 00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:48,200 Speaker 2: think it's one of the more talented horses in the. 742 00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:52,640 Speaker 2: Race so the, three the, six and the, Eight i'll 743 00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:55,640 Speaker 2: be playing into the number Two journalism in The Black 744 00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:59,800 Speaker 2: Eyed Susan Greatness double may consider using My bee horses 745 00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:04,120 Speaker 2: In Need preakness as. Well, KANTY i don't believe you 746 00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:06,560 Speaker 2: have any other undercard selections For. Friday AS i, said 747 00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:08,560 Speaker 2: rain in the forecast kind of skews. Things not the 748 00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:11,560 Speaker 2: most exciting races to begin with, either BUT i do 749 00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,879 Speaker 2: like the card On, saturday The grade Three Maryland Sprint 750 00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:17,840 Speaker 2: race four a RACE i really enjoy watching, race and 751 00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:20,759 Speaker 2: nine The Jimmickay Turf. Sprint the five Furlong sprint one 752 00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:23,359 Speaker 2: of my favorite races to watch every, year just five 753 00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:26,239 Speaker 2: furlong turf. SPRINTS i don't THINK i breathe the entire 754 00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:28,399 Speaker 2: time that race is. Running WHEN i have a pick, 755 00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:31,840 Speaker 2: four pick five ticket on, it it's literally hold your breath. 756 00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:34,400 Speaker 2: Moment there's so much fun to. Watch so do you 757 00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:36,600 Speaker 2: have bets on any of those? Races if, not totally, 758 00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:39,680 Speaker 2: fine but any thoughts on any of the undercard races 759 00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:41,440 Speaker 2: For saturday before we get to The Bretnes. 760 00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:45,799 Speaker 1: Stakes, yeah, so you, KNOW i agree with you Sean race, 761 00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:49,520 Speaker 1: nine you, know The Turf. Sprint it's every. Year this 762 00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:52,160 Speaker 1: is one of my favorite races On preakness. Weekend If 763 00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:55,360 Speaker 1: i'm being totally, honest and, LOOK i think there's a 764 00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:58,759 Speaker 1: very logical favorite in number. Two, no, nay never at 765 00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:02,440 Speaker 1: five to. Two you, know really strong buyer speed, figures 766 00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:05,840 Speaker 1: you know the horse has run against you, know top quality, 767 00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:09,520 Speaker 1: competition is graded stakes. PLACED i actually went a little 768 00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:11,400 Speaker 1: bit further to the, outside a little bit more of 769 00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:14,320 Speaker 1: a local, horse a horse that ran in this race last, 770 00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:17,839 Speaker 1: year who was seven to two in this race last 771 00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:21,080 Speaker 1: year and finished a length and a half away from 772 00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:23,840 Speaker 1: winning in second. Place and that's the number Four witty 773 00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:28,360 Speaker 1: and not only that significant jockey upgrade To Flavian. Pratt 774 00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:31,560 Speaker 1: Now witty is going to need a pace to run. 775 00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:37,600 Speaker 1: Into he is absolutely the closer in this. Race flavian 776 00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:39,680 Speaker 1: always puts his horses in a position to. Win and 777 00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:41,520 Speaker 1: if you're telling me that we're getting ten to, one 778 00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:46,400 Speaker 1: absolutely going to. Use but my best bet of the, 779 00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:51,000 Speaker 1: Weekend sean is gonna be in the eleventh race of 780 00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:54,640 Speaker 1: the day and it's going to be number. Seven reagan's 781 00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:57,600 Speaker 1: wit horses five to two on the morning. Line maybe 782 00:38:57,600 --> 00:38:59,400 Speaker 1: not the greatest of prices two and a half to, 783 00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:01,360 Speaker 1: One so you know you're talking in terms of sports, 784 00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:03,319 Speaker 1: betting that's plus two. FIFTY i, mean if you're telling 785 00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:04,960 Speaker 1: me That i'm gonna get plus two fifty on one 786 00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:07,520 Speaker 1: of my best bets at the, WEEKEND i am backing 787 00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:10,879 Speaker 1: up The brinks. Truck you know this. HORSE i absolutely 788 00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:13,879 Speaker 1: Love jose And scherie De vaux when they team up 789 00:39:13,920 --> 00:39:17,480 Speaker 1: winning at a really high. Clip horse ran against some 790 00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:21,000 Speaker 1: horses that ran On Derby, day finishing in fourth in 791 00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:23,520 Speaker 1: The Transylvania stakes last time. Out that was on a 792 00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:26,799 Speaker 1: Good keenland turf. Course and even if there's, moisture this 793 00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:28,880 Speaker 1: turf course is different than The keenland Turf. Course The 794 00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:32,000 Speaker 1: keeenland Turf course is a sand based turf. Course some 795 00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:35,279 Speaker 1: horses like, it some others. Don't so unknown if it was, 796 00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:37,960 Speaker 1: this if the good condition was the, issue or if 797 00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:40,840 Speaker 1: it was more of of that surface of that sand. 798 00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:44,400 Speaker 1: Base but this horse ran second by a neck To Zulu, 799 00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:48,359 Speaker 1: kingdom WHO i absolutely loved On Derby day and who 800 00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:51,759 Speaker 1: won in very easy. Fashion If Reagan's wit is able 801 00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:54,880 Speaker 1: to run back to a race like, that he easily 802 00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:58,160 Speaker 1: wins this, race and all of my bets On saturday 803 00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:01,719 Speaker 1: will be going through number Seven Reagan's wit in race. 804 00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:04,840 Speaker 1: Eleven hopefully that's a single to help you shorten up 805 00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:07,839 Speaker 1: your late pick four and pick five. Sequences One i'll 806 00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:10,520 Speaker 1: certainly be considering. Strong they haven't dove into those races 807 00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:12,640 Speaker 1: as deeply. YET i looked at The jim McKay turf 808 00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:16,560 Speaker 1: sprint field for quite a, bit just getting excited about the, 809 00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:19,160 Speaker 1: race not being able to pick a witter, Ultimately but, 810 00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:22,240 Speaker 1: Yeah i'm looking forward to these sprint races On, saturday 811 00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:25,680 Speaker 1: and obviously The Black Eyed susan and The Preakness states this. 812 00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:28,399 Speaker 1: Weekend if you're looking for THE nfl schedule, release it'll 813 00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:31,879 Speaker 1: be right here on The Action network podcast next. Week 814 00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:34,080 Speaker 1: but thank you for tuning in to our twenty twenty 815 00:40:34,120 --> 00:40:37,200 Speaker 1: Five Freakness stakes And Black Eyed Susan stakes preview To Michael. 816 00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:40,400 Speaker 1: Conti For Mike, Conti I'm Sean. Zerulo thank you very 817 00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:42,080 Speaker 1: much for tuning. In we'll see you back here in 818 00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:50,560 Speaker 1: a few weeks to talk about The Roman. Stakes Action 819 00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:55,120 Speaker 1: network reminds you please gamble. Responsibly if you or someone 820 00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:58,160 Speaker 1: you care about has a gambling, problem help is available 821 00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:00,720 Speaker 1: twenty four to seven at one. Time And Adreid gambler