1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom keene Jailey. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. Joining 5 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:38,159 Speaker 1: us now to break things down is Ron's Temple Lazard, 6 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:43,440 Speaker 1: Asset Management, Managing Director and co head of Multi Assets Ron. 7 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:45,159 Speaker 1: It's great to catch up with you. What's on the 8 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:49,240 Speaker 1: agenda as you get back to work. It's Wednesday, January three. 9 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:51,640 Speaker 1: FED minutes were about to drop your waiting for earnings 10 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 1: from some of the big corporate side of the next 11 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 1: couple of weeks as well. What is at the top 12 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 1: of the list I think today on the agenda. Obviously 13 00:00:57,600 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 1: we're watching for the FMC minutes, as you've already mentioned. 14 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: But the other thing I think a lot of us 15 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:02,959 Speaker 1: are working on right now is trying to figure out 16 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 1: exactly how the tax reforms in the US will affect 17 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:07,920 Speaker 1: earnings for US companies. I mean, there's a lot of 18 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 1: detail and the Tax Cutting Jobs Act the t c 19 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:14,399 Speaker 1: j A, and so we've had companies gradually trickling out 20 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 1: a bit of information about how they might pay out 21 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 1: a small bonus to employees. You know, a number of 22 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 1: the banks have come out and said they'll give a 23 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:22,640 Speaker 1: thousand dollar bonus to each of their employees who make 24 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 1: under a certain income level. But what we really need 25 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 1: to see is the very specifics of how that tax 26 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:30,959 Speaker 1: plan will affect net income. And it's not that easy 27 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:33,039 Speaker 1: to assess from outside of a company because a lot 28 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 1: of it depends on cross border flows in terms of 29 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 1: between multinational entities, and you know, understanding how I think 30 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: the provision was called BEAT, which is basically the the 31 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:47,040 Speaker 1: Enhancement and Avoidance of tax element, so base enhanced, baseline enhancement. 32 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 1: So we're trying to watch a lot of this waiting 33 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 1: for companies to give us more granularity. I think we'll 34 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:53,040 Speaker 1: start getting that late next week, whenever we start getting 35 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 1: the bank earnings. How mechanical would it be run? Because 36 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 1: from the outside looking in from thirty five, fast and fate, 37 00:01:57,920 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 1: you could just sit there and say, Wow, they tighten 38 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 1: the new open tax. Right, they pluck that in, and 39 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 1: then they give you some brand new guidance for the 40 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 1: year ahead. Oh it's I wish it were that simple. 41 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 1: And I think what you've seen from a number of 42 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:10,960 Speaker 1: the cell side strategists, which is still helpful, is taking 43 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:13,080 Speaker 1: a broad brush approach and saying, Okay, if your effective 44 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 1: tax rate was x and the new tax rate is why, 45 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:17,520 Speaker 1: let's look at the difference. Now, machits go up. But 46 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 1: it really does come down to which legal entities within 47 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 1: a company have, which exposures across borders really drives for example, 48 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: some of the interest the corporate interest deductibility provisions, and 49 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:31,920 Speaker 1: that is not disclosed in most ten ks or ten queues. 50 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:34,360 Speaker 1: So even if you do the most in depth fundamental 51 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 1: research you can possibly do from outside a company, much 52 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:39,680 Speaker 1: of this is almost impossible to decipher. Do you have 53 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 1: a big sector focus right now? Uh? With in terms 54 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:45,400 Speaker 1: of holdings, No. I think one area where we have 55 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 1: seen opportunity over the last year, and say the latter 56 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 1: part of last year, was increasing disposure to the energy sector. 57 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 1: Um it is one of the few areas of the 58 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 1: market where actually you've seen the PE ratio go down 59 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:59,120 Speaker 1: materially last year, we've seen energy prices basically move up, 60 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:01,800 Speaker 1: which could bode well for some of these companies. And 61 00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 1: also our long term analysis of the demand trajectory for 62 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:08,640 Speaker 1: fossil fuels still actually looks reasonably positive for these companies. 63 00:03:08,720 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 1: You mentioned fossil Fuels catch us right to a headline 64 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 1: which is run from our ute when you and I 65 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 1: were younger doing level one, level two, level three, and 66 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:22,080 Speaker 1: it would be the offshoot of the Virginia Railway and 67 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 1: Power Company, And of course that is Dominion D and 68 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:30,079 Speaker 1: you know the ultimate yield stock of years ago, Dominion 69 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:34,359 Speaker 1: to buy Scanner. I hate these modern names run s, C, A, 70 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 1: N A. I have no idea what Scanning is. I 71 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 1: think they serve hot dogs at the Atlanta Brave Stadium. 72 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 1: South Carolina Electric and Gas Company is the adult name 73 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 1: for SCANNA, but it does speak to one of the 74 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 1: trends here, which is mergers. Into this year Dominion to 75 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 1: buy Scanna stock deel fifty five dollars thirty cents, A 76 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 1: little buch more on that through the day, but there 77 00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 1: it is no nominal GDP. Tough revenue growth, we gotta merge. 78 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: That's a theme, right. I think we'll continue to see that. 79 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 1: I mean, I do think we will see better top 80 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 1: line growth on the back of better wage growth in 81 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 1: the US. I think the synchronized global recovery will lead 82 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:16,479 Speaker 1: to a better economic environment for companies to organically grow. 83 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:19,360 Speaker 1: But I also think if you think about what drives murders, 84 00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:24,159 Speaker 1: mergers and acquisitions, it's CEO confidence, it's financing costs. You know, 85 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:26,200 Speaker 1: it's a number of these kind of factors in terms 86 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:29,280 Speaker 1: of the drive activity. And John and I have talked 87 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:33,360 Speaker 1: about this before. John, this is the Lemmings thing. Everybody 88 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 1: for the door in the theater is rates rise, John Farroll, 89 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 1: you wonder what CFOs tell the CEO, like, let's go, 90 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:45,000 Speaker 1: is maybe the big surprise for two thousand have they 91 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:48,360 Speaker 1: been planning that already run on the refinancing side of things, 92 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 1: if they've been plugging in the low rights for longer, 93 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 1: longer maturities, lower rights, that they've been making those moves 94 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:57,360 Speaker 1: before rates rise. I do think the corporates have largely 95 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 1: termed out their debt and taken advantage of these incredibly rates, 96 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:02,600 Speaker 1: and they recognize that they're historically low. But by the way, 97 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: let's be fair, they've recognized they were historically low for 98 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:07,480 Speaker 1: the last ten years, right, so every time you turn 99 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 1: them out, you found you could turn it out even 100 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 1: longer at a lower rate. But I do believe in 101 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 1: two thousand and eighteen, that we are going to see 102 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 1: higher interest rates the long end of the curve. I mean, 103 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 1: if I look at the Eurozone, we're fifty percent roughly 104 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:21,680 Speaker 1: of Eurozone sovereign debt had a negative yield at the 105 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 1: end of the year in nominal terms, and yet you've 106 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:27,760 Speaker 1: got an economic recovery that is four years into this process. 107 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 1: I think you're going to see higher rates in the Eurozone. 108 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:32,480 Speaker 1: I mean easily. I think you could see ten year 109 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 1: blewn yield's top one percent this year, and I think 110 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:37,120 Speaker 1: that will have a relative value effect on US treasuries. 111 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:39,840 Speaker 1: So so if I look at fixed income and interest rates, 112 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 1: I do believe rates higher in twenty eighteen is a 113 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,280 Speaker 1: high probability call. And if I'm a company, I'm going 114 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 1: to think about that in terms of my opportunity to 115 00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 1: lock and load in terms of these So that's the 116 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:52,039 Speaker 1: culporate response. I want to gudge what the investor response is, 117 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 1: because investors will look at that situation. At some point, 118 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 1: you stop using the SMP five hundred a t F 119 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:02,160 Speaker 1: as a money market fund and catching in whenever you 120 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 1: like for a profit, and start looking at what's happening 121 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:06,839 Speaker 1: in treasuries and saying, you know what, there's some income 122 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 1: in fixed income and I'd like to go to that. 123 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 1: This is a multi factor question, right. I think part 124 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 1: of it is the level of dividing yields. Part of 125 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 1: it is the level of interest rates. The other factor 126 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 1: to keep in mind is what's happening with corporate pension plans. 127 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 1: With record levels on equity markets, many of the private 128 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 1: pensions are now fully funded, and if they get the 129 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:28,040 Speaker 1: opportunity where you get a fifty basis point, you'll back up. 130 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 1: The appeal of immunizing their pension risk and shifting out 131 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 1: of equities into fixed income to match their assets and 132 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 1: liabilities will be pretty compelling. So I do think that 133 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 1: will be an interesting interplay. Run Thank you, Thank you, 134 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: Thank a run Temple with us Lazar just a great 135 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:44,799 Speaker 1: way to kick off the year. He is with Lazard 136 00:06:44,880 --> 00:07:04,839 Speaker 1: Asset Management out of Minneapolis. Narrianna Cucha Dakota one of 137 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 1: our most esteemed economists. Thinking in a way of mathematics. 138 00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 1: He decided getting out the map in Minnesota to move 139 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 1: to warmer climbs and joins us this morning for Rochester, 140 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 1: New York. Let's cut to the chase. UH Professor Caucho 141 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 1: Dakota at the University of Rochester. You can look out 142 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 1: your window his the Genesee River frozen over. Uh you know, 143 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:29,480 Speaker 1: I I don't look on the river, but I'm sure 144 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 1: it's frozen. It is. Well, it's quite quite cold. It's 145 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 1: been called here for quite some time. You know. Hate 146 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 1: the Jenny Creemel was worm as well. You have a 147 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 1: terrific chart out for Bloomberg View today of the core 148 00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 1: conundrum the chairman Powell of faces Can people like you 149 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 1: actually move inflation? We have disinflation, we're told we have 150 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 1: a core pc South. Can people in suits and ties 151 00:07:56,320 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 1: and expensive dresses like cher yelling war? Can you actually 152 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 1: move the needle on inflation? You know, I think the 153 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 1: key is really to think about it is that the 154 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 1: FED can stop inflation from coming, and it can stop 155 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 1: inflation from coming by by raising it's it's regulator tightening 156 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 1: its regulat around the economy that is raising rates. Um. 157 00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 1: And what I worry about is that over the past 158 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 1: few years, you know, since the initiation lift off in December. Uh, 159 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 1: you the Fed's complaining, boy, inflation is too low. Well, 160 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 1: if inflation is too low, why are you trying to 161 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:33,880 Speaker 1: choke off acond of activity by raising rates. Um. If 162 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 1: the FED were to to take a much more gradual 163 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 1: approach to raising rates, uh, standing back letting, letting the 164 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 1: economy grow more rapidly, that's gonna it's going to have 165 00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:48,120 Speaker 1: to lead to more demand for for workers. That's gonna 166 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 1: push up on wages and costs for firms, and you're 167 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 1: gonna get inflation within the model building that we do, 168 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:56,920 Speaker 1: within the Newtonian mechanics that you are expert at. And frankly, 169 00:08:56,960 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 1: we go beyond the work of say Alfred Marshall and 170 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,960 Speaker 1: even Maynard Keynes and and John Hicks as we go 171 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 1: to modern mathematics. Do we have the tools available given 172 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:13,679 Speaker 1: the behavioral and demographic realities of our economy? Can you 173 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 1: dovetail your mathematical world with the d peopling of America, 174 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 1: with a lack of population growth, with with all sorts 175 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 1: of inequalities that are out there. Yeah, these are great questions, 176 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:28,319 Speaker 1: and there's a ton of work going on and all 177 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 1: these issues, um, you know they uh. The major meetings 178 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:34,959 Speaker 1: for for economics are gonna be taking place over the 179 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:37,000 Speaker 1: weekend and there'll be a lot of conversation about exactly 180 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 1: these kinds of questions. But with all that said, monetary 181 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 1: policy doesn't really isn't really at the cutting edge of 182 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 1: all these kinds of issues. It if you see inflation 183 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:50,440 Speaker 1: too low, it's pretty simple what you have to do, 184 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 1: keep policy and and and right now what we're seeing 185 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 1: is the opposite you are, I'll suggest, I mean, and 186 00:09:57,440 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 1: this goes to the legacy of Gary Stern in the 187 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 1: Minneapolis You were wonderfully agnostic in the political debate. There 188 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 1: is a common ground. I'm just gonna pick on two 189 00:10:06,280 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: folks between Rick Michigan of Colombia and Charles Plasser out 190 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:13,520 Speaker 1: of the Carnegie Rochester Freshwater School. They have a lot 191 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:18,520 Speaker 1: of common ground, and yet they aggressively disagree on whether 192 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 1: a central bank can get out in front of the 193 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 1: trend or if by definition they act after the fact. 194 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:30,360 Speaker 1: What's your experience here is a central bank by definition 195 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 1: ex post? I think that the it's it's very difficult 196 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,439 Speaker 1: to predict where bad times are going to come from. Always, 197 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 1: I think the the the job of central banks is 198 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 1: to be as aggressive as possible in terms of the 199 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:52,960 Speaker 1: clean up after after bad shocks have taken place. Well, 200 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:54,719 Speaker 1: I agree that I guess we saw that but it's 201 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 1: not two thousand and eight, two thousand ten, the intellectual 202 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:01,319 Speaker 1: courage of Ben Bernanki and other as we came out 203 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 1: of this crisis, we're now a decade on. So now 204 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:10,080 Speaker 1: what should be the policy? Uh? Look, I think that um, 205 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:12,400 Speaker 1: the post you are kind enough are referred to, made 206 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 1: the point that actually we still see the economy very 207 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,600 Speaker 1: subdued relative where we were ten years ago, and even 208 00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 1: even relatively we were eighteen years ago at the beginning 209 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 1: of the two thousands, um, And so I think that 210 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:29,439 Speaker 1: behooves the FED to remain very accommodated with monetary policy. Look, 211 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:32,440 Speaker 1: it's not a question of trying to make things happen, 212 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 1: it's a question of not getting in the way of 213 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:38,720 Speaker 1: things that are happening. So you see this great tax 214 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:41,840 Speaker 1: bill that Congress passed, and I say great in terms 215 00:11:41,880 --> 00:11:45,000 Speaker 1: of actually trying to improve the growth outcomes for for 216 00:11:45,040 --> 00:11:47,800 Speaker 1: the US, both on the demand side and on the 217 00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:52,439 Speaker 1: supply side. If um, uh that those growth outcomes can 218 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:54,959 Speaker 1: only materialize if the FED doesn't get in the way 219 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 1: of them happening by raising rates to rapidly. How do 220 00:11:57,240 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 1: you respond to the cocktail of potent chual GDP, that 221 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:07,319 Speaker 1: is subpar based on new productivity and population realities. If 222 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:11,080 Speaker 1: Michael Faroli at JP Morgan out of Boost Chicago, if 223 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:15,440 Speaker 1: Michael Faroli can say it's sub two percent, do you 224 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 1: adjust your calculus now at the FED or do you 225 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,319 Speaker 1: have to wait until you see the whites of subpar? 226 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:25,440 Speaker 1: G d p iyes. I think that you know, the 227 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:28,280 Speaker 1: FED has been adjusting it's it's vision and potentially agree 228 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:30,880 Speaker 1: with the last over the last eight or nine years. 229 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:34,600 Speaker 1: And and um, you you'll see in the forecast from 230 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:38,000 Speaker 1: CEE participants that they they've adjusted their their vision downward. 231 00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 1: But the question is how much downward should you go? 232 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:43,960 Speaker 1: And how much gap has left? And I I I 233 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 1: think there's still more room for improvement that can be 234 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 1: facilitated by monetary policy. Um. The one piece I'll mate 235 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:53,760 Speaker 1: point on makeoff potential is that that some of the 236 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:56,440 Speaker 1: things that are in the tax bill and also the 237 00:12:56,640 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 1: deregulatory UH initiatives coming out of White House are actually 238 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:04,160 Speaker 1: aimed at boosting potential output. Okay, but that's something that 239 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:06,240 Speaker 1: that the fantastic no account This is critical and I 240 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:09,760 Speaker 1: don't want you know it's a media question. I apologize, professor, 241 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:12,680 Speaker 1: but I'm gonna go there right now? How do you 242 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 1: respond when the President United States suggests three percent real 243 00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 1: GDP and some of his supporters get out to four 244 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:21,840 Speaker 1: percent real GDP? Can we get there given the potential 245 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:25,959 Speaker 1: calculus we've got right now? So I think it's a 246 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:29,480 Speaker 1: question of what people mean when they throw those numbers around. 247 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:33,680 Speaker 1: If they need uh they think that uh potential? Can 248 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 1: growth can be permanently or even over a decade at 249 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 1: four percent per year? I'm extremely skeptical, Um, can we 250 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 1: get there without? Can we get four percent growth for 251 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 1: a year or even two years without causing undue inflation? Possibly? 252 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 1: I mean that's a possible issue. And then that becomes 253 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:55,240 Speaker 1: you know, if you're in the White House, I can 254 00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 1: see why you might want to push on that as 255 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,200 Speaker 1: much as you can. Professor Cutchy Cola, let me ask 256 00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 1: you one final question by requirement, do we need a 257 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 1: culture lacoda like vice chairman of the Fed? Everybody says 258 00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 1: Chairman Powell has certain constructive attributes, but does he need 259 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:15,800 Speaker 1: someone that understands Clarida and Gurtler's d s g E. 260 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 1: Does he need somebody sitting in that vice chairman chair 261 00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 1: that can get through your pH D thesis. Uh. You know, 262 00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:27,920 Speaker 1: I I think that I worked closely with Jay when 263 00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 1: I j Paul when I was on the scene. I 264 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:34,920 Speaker 1: think that he's a very smart guy. He's able to 265 00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 1: analyze a bunch of the frame I think he understands 266 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 1: the frameworks well. I think he understands how they come 267 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:42,960 Speaker 1: to the data. Is is he going to do cutting 268 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 1: edge research and economics? Now? Do you need a vice 269 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 1: chair like that? Please? I don't. I don't really think so. 270 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 1: I think that it's you want someone who the chair. 271 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 1: The main thing you're gonna want in that position is 272 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:57,200 Speaker 1: um someone who's gonna be very supportive to the chairs. 273 00:14:57,360 --> 00:15:00,440 Speaker 1: The chair feels comfortable with the chair, feel ols is 274 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 1: going to be helpful to to him in uh, in 275 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 1: making their decisions. That might well be somebody who has 276 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 1: a lot of mathematical firepower, but it might well not be. 277 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:14,680 Speaker 1: I think it really depends on what on the chair, 278 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 1: what what what? What? In this case he wants professor, 279 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us today from the 280 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:23,600 Speaker 1: University of Rochester and Arianna Cultural Dakota. Of course, with 281 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:26,520 Speaker 1: the mini applos fed a good tour of duty there 282 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 1: between Gary Stern and Neil Cush Curry a bit ago. 283 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:46,360 Speaker 1: Why don't you bring in Christian Mamandy, Alright, you don't. 284 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:47,880 Speaker 1: I don't even know why he showed up for work 285 00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:52,480 Speaker 1: in two thousand and eighteen after Hour International performed last year. 286 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 1: All right, well, Christian MoManI, thanks very much for being 287 00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 1: with us. Of course, from Oppenheimer Funds, the chief investment officer, 288 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:02,920 Speaker 1: Happy new year to you. You've written in the past 289 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,320 Speaker 1: or set in the past that the tax overhaul bill 290 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 1: is going to give us a one time pop. What 291 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 1: happens after that? So for the markets to get to 292 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 1: a different level altogether, economic growth has to pick up 293 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 1: in a meaningful way through increased investments. If this tax 294 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:24,480 Speaker 1: bill is going to deliver superior growth, in our view, 295 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 1: that is less likely. What is going to happen is 296 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 1: you basically have a trillion dollar deficit. That's basically provide 297 00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 1: a fiscal stimulus, and as a result, in the short 298 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 1: term you'll get a pop in terms of growth. In addition, 299 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:44,160 Speaker 1: companies would be making more money because they're paying less taxes, 300 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 1: and as a result, earnings are going to go up. 301 00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 1: Once all of that kind of flushes through the system, 302 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 1: we're back to the same trend upward trajectory as we 303 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:57,360 Speaker 1: had before. When you say upward trajectory, upward trajectory of 304 00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 1: what asset prices like stocks? Oh, yes, upward trajectory. Both. 305 00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:06,520 Speaker 1: Growth is going to be at a constant in our 306 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 1: view around let's say two and change. In that context, 307 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:14,920 Speaker 1: as the economy grows, profitability grows, asset prices will probably 308 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:18,160 Speaker 1: continue to trend up. In our view, this is still 309 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:21,480 Speaker 1: going to be the longest business cycle that any of 310 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 1: us has ever experienced. We don't expect a recession in 311 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:27,840 Speaker 1: two thousand and eighteen or two thousand nineteen for that matter. 312 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,000 Speaker 1: Is this really a business cycle or is it a 313 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:35,199 Speaker 1: credit cycle? Really good? I think that's a that's a 314 00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:38,679 Speaker 1: that's a really good question. I think the business cycle 315 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:43,360 Speaker 1: and credit cycle at this point are correlated. And because 316 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:47,640 Speaker 1: this cycle really has been so muted. If the if 317 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 1: the credit cycle UH has difficulty in some way, that 318 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:56,920 Speaker 1: is we in a situation where we have problems in 319 00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:59,480 Speaker 1: in credit creation, I think the growth is going to 320 00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:03,360 Speaker 1: slow down. Okay more so than before PIM was old enough. 321 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:05,360 Speaker 1: We were too young Christian to do this. But if 322 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,240 Speaker 1: we were at Oxford with Johnny Hicks a few years ago, 323 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:11,600 Speaker 1: and you look at the classic I S l M model. 324 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:14,879 Speaker 1: What Pim's great question is, are we on the I 325 00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 1: S curve and is that the dynamics we should watch 326 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 1: the real economy? Or are we on the l M 327 00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:23,879 Speaker 1: curve that strange financial system and money base that we 328 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:28,200 Speaker 1: work within. What has your attention here that real economy 329 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 1: or is it the financial dynamics that that reigns supreme 330 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 1: in two thousand eighteen. So, I think this has been 331 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:40,280 Speaker 1: a topic of discussion for quite some time, people asserting 332 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 1: that it's really all funny money, that is, it's because 333 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:47,679 Speaker 1: of monetary jerrymandering that we are getting the markets to 334 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:50,400 Speaker 1: a different level. We don't think that is the case. 335 00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 1: That is, if you look at the growth and earnings, 336 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:55,879 Speaker 1: if you look at the fundamentals of the economy, things 337 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 1: have improved meaningfully and they continue to improve. In two 338 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:02,200 Speaker 1: was an eighteen. We think growth is going to be 339 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,360 Speaker 1: better in the US and on a global basis, Earnings 340 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 1: are going to be better in the US and on 341 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:11,160 Speaker 1: a global basis, and therefore markets are going to be had. 342 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:14,520 Speaker 1: A lot of that is already anticipated and therefore price thing. 343 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:19,720 Speaker 1: So we don't have superlative expectations with respect to the market. 344 00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:23,680 Speaker 1: But I think this is more fundamental driven rather than 345 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 1: just the LM part that you were talking about. So 346 00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:30,640 Speaker 1: where do you focus your attention in growth stocks? Well, yes, 347 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:36,080 Speaker 1: we continue to favor growth stocks. We some expectations in 348 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:38,960 Speaker 1: the market is that we'll get back to the value 349 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:42,640 Speaker 1: band wagon soon. I I don't think that is the case. 350 00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 1: For that to happen, rates have to move up meaningfully higher, 351 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:49,600 Speaker 1: inflation expectations have to go up meaningfully higher. We don't 352 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:53,000 Speaker 1: think that happens. Uh. You know, the things to watch 353 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:56,600 Speaker 1: in that regard would be if the investment cycle picked 354 00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,879 Speaker 1: up in a meaningful way. Again, we don't think that 355 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 1: is going to be the case. So we are still 356 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:06,959 Speaker 1: focused on growth stocks, and we are from a geographic standpoint, 357 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 1: we have far more folks in international and emerging markets 358 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:14,400 Speaker 1: than in the US. Christian. If I go to Davos, 359 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:16,000 Speaker 1: which I am here in a number of weeks, there 360 00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:19,200 Speaker 1: are gonna be buses plastered with there's gonna be an 361 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:23,680 Speaker 1: infrastructure boom and pick kazakhstand This morning, Jonathan Mahler in 362 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 1: New York Magazine writes a definitive article Excuse me, New 363 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:30,639 Speaker 1: York Times Magazine, The definitive article on the case for 364 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:33,600 Speaker 1: the subway. I'm building the subway, and you know all 365 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:38,479 Speaker 1: that I mean is infrastructure part of the investment cycle 366 00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:45,160 Speaker 1: that I could be in domestically and international. So internationally, 367 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:50,199 Speaker 1: investments are actually slowing rather than accelerating, primarily because of 368 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:54,359 Speaker 1: slowdown in investments in the places like China, which have 369 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 1: been booming for quite some time. They are moving to 370 00:20:57,359 --> 00:21:00,919 Speaker 1: a consumer driven economy. What you're talking about is really 371 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 1: an infrastructure boom. Uh. In the US, I wish that 372 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:09,520 Speaker 1: was the case. I wish the billion or the trillion 373 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:13,199 Speaker 1: dollars that we spent on tax cuts was spent actually 374 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 1: in infrastructure, because that would have revived the U s 375 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 1: economy and potentially gotten us to a different level from 376 00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:22,320 Speaker 1: a growth perspective. We're thrilled to have with his Christian 377 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:26,240 Speaker 1: Mormoney it Oppenheimer Funds. Full disclosure, folks, Oppenheimer Funds has 378 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 1: been more than supportive of all we do, your Bloomberg 379 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 1: Radio and Bloomberg surveillance. Uh, Christian, we've had a bang 380 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:38,040 Speaker 1: up year. As we mentioned earlier. How do you find companies? 381 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:41,879 Speaker 1: I mean, do you make sector bets on Indonesia? Do 382 00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 1: you go long Indonesia like the game of risk from 383 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:48,160 Speaker 1: our childhood or does somebody out there, some thirty two 384 00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 1: year old young Turk at Oppenheimer Funds, do they find 385 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:55,840 Speaker 1: a mom and pop business forwarded miles from Jakarta and 386 00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 1: say this looks good, how do you actually do it? 387 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:05,000 Speaker 1: So for investing in emerging markets, for that matter, investing anywhere, 388 00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 1: we are more companies specific rather than geography. So the 389 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,640 Speaker 1: best example of that is probably China. If you want 390 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,040 Speaker 1: to invest in China, you don't want to invest in 391 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 1: a Chinese steel company, despite the fact that Chinese steel 392 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 1: companies probably the largest part of the Chinese economy. You 393 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:25,360 Speaker 1: really want to invest in Chinese consumers, the internet companies 394 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:29,320 Speaker 1: who are doing fantastic things in terms of creating new 395 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:33,199 Speaker 1: businesses and opportunities. So for us, it's all about companies, 396 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 1: and then we aggregated up to a level that that 397 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:40,160 Speaker 1: we look at, but it's really about companies rather than geography. Okay, 398 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:42,360 Speaker 1: So in the time of Method two, in this historic 399 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:46,080 Speaker 1: day for Global Wall Street, it's based on by side 400 00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:51,879 Speaker 1: like Oppenheimer Funds or sell side traditional sell side research. 401 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:55,720 Speaker 1: Do you need sell side research in the future or 402 00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:59,240 Speaker 1: is that can become less dominant for her Christian Mamani 403 00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:03,119 Speaker 1: by side animals. Well, so you know, at the end 404 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 1: of the day, if we simply rely on sales side research, 405 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:10,000 Speaker 1: then we basically would be part of the consensus because 406 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:14,040 Speaker 1: there are lots of consumers of that reason, So we 407 00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 1: we we really focused on doing all of our things. 408 00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:21,960 Speaker 1: Our investment philosophy is really focusing on long term trends. 409 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,280 Speaker 1: You know, we have stocks that we have owned for 410 00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:28,120 Speaker 1: twenty thirty years because if it's a particular approach and philosophy, 411 00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,600 Speaker 1: so we focus on finding those opportunities and companies that 412 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:35,760 Speaker 1: can take advantage of those. You'll remember this the way 413 00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:39,160 Speaker 1: you played Mexico hosted by t Max. Yeah, I mean 414 00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:40,960 Speaker 1: that's what you used to do, Christian. You'd buy the 415 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:44,920 Speaker 1: big telephone company or the big concrete company. Writing those 416 00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,840 Speaker 1: days are over, Christian, I just want to push a 417 00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:50,040 Speaker 1: little bit here. Okay, I got the idea of China 418 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,960 Speaker 1: and the consumers, So in my mind I immediately think 419 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,920 Speaker 1: Ali bobba symbol B A B A. That's not hard 420 00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,159 Speaker 1: if you decide that Ali Bob is going to be 421 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:00,800 Speaker 1: sticking around and going to benefit from ink respending from 422 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:06,040 Speaker 1: the Chinese consumer, Why do I need Oppenheimer to tell 423 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:09,720 Speaker 1: me that the stock is up a d from last 424 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:14,760 Speaker 1: December from December. Why wouldn't I just stick with Ali 425 00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:19,520 Speaker 1: Baba and call it a day. If you have the 426 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,959 Speaker 1: capability of going out and finding those opportunities, but not 427 00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 1: finding those opportunities, I mean finding this opportunity, right, I mean, 428 00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:29,960 Speaker 1: Ali Baba's plastered over every story that you write or 429 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,520 Speaker 1: here when it comes to China, I mean, we we 430 00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:36,959 Speaker 1: got it, Ali Baba, jack mass success story, fabulous stocks 431 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:41,640 Speaker 1: up seven and a p this year so far, and 432 00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 1: I mean so I'm wondering, why make it more complicated? Well, 433 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 1: we we like Ali Baba too, but our point would 434 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:51,960 Speaker 1: be that there are better opportunities than just Ali Baba. 435 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:54,280 Speaker 1: What do you want to do is find Ali Baba 436 00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:59,120 Speaker 1: five years ago so or finding ten then ten years ago. 437 00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,560 Speaker 1: So it's really not focusing on names that we all 438 00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 1: know about. It's really focusing on names that have the 439 00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:09,600 Speaker 1: potential of becoming names that we will eventually know about. 440 00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:11,639 Speaker 1: So that means that you were you were invested in 441 00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 1: Ali Baba way back for example. Absolutely, we have been 442 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,920 Speaker 1: invested in Ali Baba from the I P O and 443 00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:23,439 Speaker 1: we invest in some private companies long before the I 444 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:26,399 Speaker 1: p R. So, yes, we go out and talk to 445 00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:30,040 Speaker 1: I was actually in China three weeks ago meeting all 446 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:34,400 Speaker 1: of these little companies that that kind of are creating 447 00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 1: new businesses. So tell us about the best new business, 448 00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:40,600 Speaker 1: the best small business that you met with three weeks ago. Well, 449 00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,840 Speaker 1: so you know, we we met with a car hailing company, 450 00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 1: the competitor for uber in in in in China, and 451 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:53,320 Speaker 1: they are delivering almost let's say, twenty million rides right here. 452 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:56,040 Speaker 1: It's a private company, and we are invested in it 453 00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:59,000 Speaker 1: as a private company, along with all sorts of really 454 00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:02,200 Speaker 1: good investors like soft Bark and Alive Baba and and 455 00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:07,600 Speaker 1: having getting access to these types of opportunity would be yes, 456 00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,919 Speaker 1: that would be exactly d D. All Right, so you 457 00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:13,520 Speaker 1: you met with you met with d D and you said, 458 00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:18,240 Speaker 1: this is a company that we love. Is there any pushback? 459 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,680 Speaker 1: I mean, what do you mean? I guess right, hearing, 460 00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 1: but I mean, you know, Hubert doesn't make any money, 461 00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,760 Speaker 1: and d D is investing money in places like Brazil 462 00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:30,480 Speaker 1: and buying bike sharing programs. Well, so you know clearly 463 00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:33,360 Speaker 1: they are investing in lots of new opportunities. But there 464 00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 1: their current business in China, and even their business in 465 00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:41,080 Speaker 1: Brazil is actually getting to a much better level than 466 00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:45,440 Speaker 1: their their comparis. The point isn't that that we we 467 00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,960 Speaker 1: uh we invested in d D because the point returning up, 468 00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:52,520 Speaker 1: you know, positive. The point is you basically have to 469 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:56,520 Speaker 1: tap into the ecosystem. We met a company there, for example, 470 00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,879 Speaker 1: that is actually trying to do the same thing that 471 00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 1: the car healing companies did for ride sharing into the 472 00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:09,880 Speaker 1: half truckload transportation in China, which is a fantastic opportunity 473 00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:12,480 Speaker 1: where you can distant media a whole lot of local 474 00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:15,280 Speaker 1: brokers and create a create a good business. Then if 475 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:17,800 Speaker 1: you can get to that in an early stage enough, 476 00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:20,880 Speaker 1: you can you can do very well. Thanks so much, 477 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:24,040 Speaker 1: Christian Mamati greatly greatly appreciate it. With Oppenheimer Funds a 478 00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:26,919 Speaker 1: good briefing there on some of the block and tackle 479 00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:43,720 Speaker 1: because all of this on the backdrop of MIVID too. Okay, 480 00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:49,320 Speaker 1: the stereotype, the myth Texas is Republican. That's begin with 481 00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:54,000 Speaker 1: a little history. Lyndon Baines Johnson twenty three seats in 482 00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:57,720 Speaker 1: the Texas Delegation, the explosion of the Texas economy. It 483 00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:01,000 Speaker 1: brings us out to thirty six seats today and the 484 00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:04,560 Speaker 1: stereotype and myth is they're all Republican. You know the story. 485 00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:08,360 Speaker 1: Will Heard knows that is not true. He's a congressman 486 00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:11,880 Speaker 1: from a twenty three district, thinks San Antonio, his district 487 00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:17,280 Speaker 1: is Hispanic and he won barely within that closely contested 488 00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:20,240 Speaker 1: twenty three district and he joins US right now. Thomas 489 00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:22,720 Speaker 1: Cogsman heard wonderful to uh speak to you. I know, 490 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,359 Speaker 1: my colleague Pim Fox wants to talk to you about 491 00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:28,359 Speaker 1: the fractious nature of your district. I want to talk 492 00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:31,360 Speaker 1: about your skill set. Out of Texas A and M. 493 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:35,960 Speaker 1: You became a c I, a employee and operations officer. 494 00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:39,160 Speaker 1: Does the President of the United States from your party, 495 00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:44,120 Speaker 1: does he understand what our intelligence community does? Um? He 496 00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,560 Speaker 1: does understand what the intelligence community does. A selection of 497 00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,720 Speaker 1: a guy like Mike Pompeo to run the CIA, he's 498 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:53,640 Speaker 1: a real professional and it knows what he's doing. Sellecting 499 00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:56,240 Speaker 1: a guy like General Maddis to head d O D, 500 00:28:56,560 --> 00:29:02,240 Speaker 1: which has you know, significant intelligence operation and UM is important. 501 00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:06,440 Speaker 1: And while you know I probably wouldn't be tweeting about 502 00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:08,520 Speaker 1: some of the things that our federal law enforcement or 503 00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:12,680 Speaker 1: intelligence communities aren't involved in the rank and file. The 504 00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:15,200 Speaker 1: folks that do the job that I used to do. Um, 505 00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:18,040 Speaker 1: they don't listen to the nonsense in the belt Way. Um. 506 00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:21,560 Speaker 1: They're they're quiet professionals that go on and do their job. 507 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:25,240 Speaker 1: You people. And we feature the people that have died 508 00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:28,160 Speaker 1: for the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Frank and folks. 509 00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:30,920 Speaker 1: There's a lot of people that are Central Intelligence Agency. 510 00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:34,040 Speaker 1: If you know, if they died, we never hear about it. 511 00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:39,760 Speaker 1: Within this is centered the Justice Department is the president's 512 00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:45,120 Speaker 1: interpretation of how justice works. Is it appropriate or does 513 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:49,240 Speaker 1: he need to find a new techt for two thousand eighteen? Um? 514 00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:53,480 Speaker 1: I think the Department of Justice should be you know, independent, Um. 515 00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:55,920 Speaker 1: One of the folks that should be looking out and 516 00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:59,800 Speaker 1: making sure the Justice Department is doing everything properly. Is 517 00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:03,080 Speaker 1: is the is Congress. Um. That's why we have an 518 00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 1: oversight role. Um. But we also can't just think that 519 00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:09,040 Speaker 1: d o J and the political leadership of d o 520 00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:13,440 Speaker 1: J are always going to do the right thing. Um, 521 00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:19,120 Speaker 1: and so so having overside over them is important. UM. 522 00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,680 Speaker 1: And that's why Congress has that responsibility. UM. You know 523 00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:27,720 Speaker 1: d o j's ability to investigate Americans to UM get 524 00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:31,160 Speaker 1: you know, fis a collection that's foreign intelligence, UM collection 525 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,080 Speaker 1: on Americans. It's you know, we got to make sure 526 00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:38,000 Speaker 1: that they're following and protecting Americans Fourth Amendment rights and 527 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:40,320 Speaker 1: that they're crossing all their teas and and dotting all 528 00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:43,760 Speaker 1: the eyes. So UM, there should always be a healthy 529 00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:46,600 Speaker 1: a healthy at tension, UM, and we should always be 530 00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:50,760 Speaker 1: making sure um that because you know there are you know, 531 00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:53,160 Speaker 1: I always say I've gotten the honor of serving side 532 00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:55,840 Speaker 1: by side with many men and women in in the FBI. 533 00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,800 Speaker 1: And the reason that we haven't had another attack on 534 00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:02,080 Speaker 1: a homeland like that we saw in at the Pentagon 535 00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,280 Speaker 1: and the Twin Towers in New York back in two 536 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,280 Speaker 1: thousand and one is because these current professionals are out 537 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:11,720 Speaker 1: doing their job every single day. UM. But again, we 538 00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:14,480 Speaker 1: got to make sure that we're all crossing the teas 539 00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:19,040 Speaker 1: and dotting dotting the ice. Congressman, you and your colleagues 540 00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,280 Speaker 1: are going to have to vote on a resolution on 541 00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:25,560 Speaker 1: a bill to keep the government open. I believe the 542 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:31,440 Speaker 1: deadline is January the UH. If the President insists on 543 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:35,320 Speaker 1: funding for the border wall, can you give us some 544 00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:38,400 Speaker 1: thoughts about your position because I believe that you have 545 00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:42,280 Speaker 1: already gone on the record to say that a wall 546 00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:45,680 Speaker 1: between the United States and Mexico on our southern border 547 00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:50,680 Speaker 1: is a third century solution to a century problem. Um. 548 00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:53,440 Speaker 1: That that's pretty accurate. I think building a thirty foot 549 00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,520 Speaker 1: high concrete structure that takes four hours to penetrate from 550 00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:59,800 Speaker 1: sea to shining sea is the most expensive and least 551 00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:03,520 Speaker 1: of active way to do border security. Um. It's we 552 00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:08,000 Speaker 1: do not do not have operational control of our border. 553 00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:11,120 Speaker 1: And the reason we don't is because we don't look 554 00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,920 Speaker 1: at all two thousand miles of our southern border at 555 00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:16,280 Speaker 1: the same time. And the only way to do that 556 00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:19,840 Speaker 1: is with technology. And so I I favor a smart 557 00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:22,920 Speaker 1: wall or a smart solution to border security that relies 558 00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:26,320 Speaker 1: on technology. Now, there are some places that a physical 559 00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:30,680 Speaker 1: barrier makes sense, um, where there's urban urban contact. You know, 560 00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,080 Speaker 1: something along the lines of some of the physical barriers 561 00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:36,320 Speaker 1: that are already um in existence makes a little bit 562 00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:39,760 Speaker 1: more sense. Um. But this is you know, border security 563 00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:41,800 Speaker 1: is is going to be part of the debate as 564 00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:44,400 Speaker 1: we look forward to funding the government and in the 565 00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:47,520 Speaker 1: next couple of weeks. And I think, um, I hope 566 00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:49,120 Speaker 1: the only way we're going to solve some of these 567 00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:53,760 Speaker 1: problems is by working together across party lines, and um, 568 00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:56,880 Speaker 1: I think we can we can get there. Sometimes a 569 00:32:56,960 --> 00:32:59,080 Speaker 1: rhetoric what you see on social media on TV is 570 00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:02,040 Speaker 1: not always there. But behind closed doors, UM, there's a 571 00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:05,080 Speaker 1: lot of good conversations going on. Well, could you give 572 00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:07,400 Speaker 1: us some idea of what some of those good conversations 573 00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:09,960 Speaker 1: are because if you look at the votes that have 574 00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:18,440 Speaker 1: taken place in Congress in there's no bipartisan anything. Uh, well, 575 00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:22,200 Speaker 1: I would I would disagree with that. I think probably 576 00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:24,480 Speaker 1: one of the biggest things that we did was something 577 00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:26,440 Speaker 1: that we have to do every year, the National Defense 578 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:31,560 Speaker 1: Authorization Act UM, which authorizes, uh, you know, the activity 579 00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:34,360 Speaker 1: of our military. It gave the largest raise to our 580 00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:37,400 Speaker 1: military in in eight years. UM. You know piece of 581 00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:40,320 Speaker 1: legislation that I work on dealing with I T procurement 582 00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:44,320 Speaker 1: um is something that is that was included in that. 583 00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:47,120 Speaker 1: So so there there, there are. There are some of 584 00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:51,640 Speaker 1: those examples, um in um that we've seen in but 585 00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,959 Speaker 1: but we need more and and I actually believe, you know, 586 00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:57,800 Speaker 1: in a district like mine, UM, folks want to see 587 00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:00,440 Speaker 1: us come up here and actually get things done. Um. 588 00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:04,720 Speaker 1: And and not just have these food fights we just had. Congressman, 589 00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:06,440 Speaker 1: if you're just joining us here, we're thrilled to speak 590 00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:08,960 Speaker 1: to the Congress. Fro from the twenty three district of 591 00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:12,080 Speaker 1: Texas is along the southern border up to San Antonio 592 00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,400 Speaker 1: as well. His name is William will heard out of 593 00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:18,880 Speaker 1: Texas saying him a few years ago and a former 594 00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:23,400 Speaker 1: operations officer with the CIA as well. Congressman heard, I 595 00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:27,440 Speaker 1: believe we just passed tax legislation. I believe somebody in 596 00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:32,200 Speaker 1: New Jersey or Connecticut is hammered by the inability to 597 00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:36,239 Speaker 1: deduct a good portion of state and local taxes. I 598 00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:38,560 Speaker 1: think the same thing maybe is gonna happen in Del Rio, 599 00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:42,719 Speaker 1: Texas to people that are very financially successful. How is 600 00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:46,040 Speaker 1: the tax bill played on the border with Del Rio 601 00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,000 Speaker 1: or the fat cats of San Antonio. Are they as 602 00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:52,200 Speaker 1: livid as the people in New Jersey? No, they're not 603 00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,000 Speaker 1: um and And the bottom line is was when you 604 00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:57,920 Speaker 1: really start getting into the details, this is something that's 605 00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:01,920 Speaker 1: could have benefit all Americans in my district. Of the 606 00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:05,000 Speaker 1: folks in the district, UM do not itemize, so they 607 00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:07,600 Speaker 1: fill out to say pretty easy. So if you're filling 608 00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:11,640 Speaker 1: out the ten forty easy and the you UM have 609 00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:15,719 Speaker 1: UM the standard deduction doubling, and that's a pretty big deal. 610 00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:17,719 Speaker 1: I think a lot of people don't understand what the 611 00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:20,120 Speaker 1: standard deduction is, and when he started explaining it to them, 612 00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,759 Speaker 1: they get it. You know, Folks like my brother. He's 613 00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:24,560 Speaker 1: gonna be able to buy a whole lot more diapers 614 00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:27,240 Speaker 1: for his his twin girls that are you know, about 615 00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:29,399 Speaker 1: to be about to be too. And when you look 616 00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:31,759 Speaker 1: at the impact that this has on business, you know, 617 00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:35,640 Speaker 1: we've seen the number of of business, you know, corporations 618 00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:38,560 Speaker 1: that have increased hiring, that are talking about the investment 619 00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,759 Speaker 1: they're gonna be doing in in UM in their businesses. 620 00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:45,759 Speaker 1: We're seeing small businesses being able to take advantages from 621 00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:48,640 Speaker 1: the pastors. What about you, how do you find a 622 00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:52,880 Speaker 1: common ground with Mr Smith the fourth District of New Jersey. 623 00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:56,040 Speaker 1: You're both Republicans? Do you just throw Chris Smith under 624 00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:59,560 Speaker 1: the bus? Now? I look, I think it goes down 625 00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:02,759 Speaker 1: to every individual person, right, And I think when you 626 00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:05,160 Speaker 1: look at some of these high net worth individuals that 627 00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:08,600 Speaker 1: are in UM New Jersey or New York City, when 628 00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:11,279 Speaker 1: you look at you know, much of their income is 629 00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:16,480 Speaker 1: probably coming through UM. You know escorts or they're they're 630 00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:18,960 Speaker 1: gonna see benefits in other ways. And so I think 631 00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:22,440 Speaker 1: really drilling down into the details on an individual is 632 00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:25,200 Speaker 1: is the most important thing and the way people are 633 00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:27,600 Speaker 1: going to see this realized. One of the things I'm 634 00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:31,040 Speaker 1: nervous about, you know, in in looking at the impact 635 00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:34,000 Speaker 1: two jobs in our economy and the markets, is what 636 00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:36,880 Speaker 1: we're gonna do with NAFTA. Um. That's something that hasn't 637 00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:40,359 Speaker 1: been talked about enough. Um. The one way to screw 638 00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:42,320 Speaker 1: up the markets, the run the markets are on is 639 00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:44,520 Speaker 1: screwing up. Here's here's what we're gonna do. We're gonna 640 00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:47,799 Speaker 1: get you back on again soon. Congress heard to talk 641 00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:50,000 Speaker 1: about NAFTA. We've been unfair enough to bring that up 642 00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:53,200 Speaker 1: with you with your district on the border. Will heard 643 00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:56,600 Speaker 1: the twenty three district of Texas a Republicans Pim Fox 644 00:36:56,680 --> 00:36:59,200 Speaker 1: of surveillance. Bad phone just lit up like a candle. 645 00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:02,120 Speaker 1: You think it's just the lights. We gotta yeah, we 646 00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:04,160 Speaker 1: gotta get impact on a lot of interesting stuff to 647 00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:06,400 Speaker 1: talk about. But when he said there about Christmas in 648 00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:10,040 Speaker 1: the fourth District of New Jersey, is the whole debate. Yeah, 649 00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:13,000 Speaker 1: people need to have money in order to spend money. 650 00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:17,680 Speaker 1: I think that was great. Will heard from Texas. Thank 651 00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:21,720 Speaker 1: you so much for being with us. Thanks for listening 652 00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:26,360 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews 653 00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:31,600 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. 654 00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:35,480 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You 655 00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:38,960 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio