WEBVTT - Wall Street's Epic Bonuses Are Back

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovik. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>you the latest news from the world to business and finance,

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<v Speaker 1>clus technology, politics, economics, all purtnising the power of Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>analyst in more than one twenty countries. You can download

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business weekn iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. You

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<v Speaker 1>can also listen to our radio show at two pm

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<v Speaker 1>Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube

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<v Speaker 1>search Bloomberg Clovel News. We are seeing the world reopening

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<v Speaker 1>again um post a Macron. But let's not forget that

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<v Speaker 1>the full impact of code on our well being, Tim

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<v Speaker 1>will be felt for years to come. And I'm talking

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<v Speaker 1>about our health and also our mental well being. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's certainly taken. I think become an increase in sharper

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<v Speaker 1>focus over the last couple of years during the pandemic.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about it with Angelina May, licensed mental health

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<v Speaker 1>counselor also the executive director of a MFM Healthcare. She

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<v Speaker 1>joins us on the phone from Washington State Angelina, how

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<v Speaker 1>are you hi, I'm greats wonderful to meet you, Carol

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<v Speaker 1>and Tim. Thanks for having me on the show. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks so much for joining us, Angelina. And I'm wondering,

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<v Speaker 1>what can you tell us about the way that mental

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<v Speaker 1>health issues have increased during the pandemic. What's the data

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<v Speaker 1>tell us. Well, it's telling us that things are of

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<v Speaker 1>urgent needs right now and we really need to have

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<v Speaker 1>significant interventions so we can really meet the needs of Americans. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>we've had a significant um increase in depression of anxiety

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<v Speaker 1>among adolescents, adults, and even UM our elderly population. Can

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<v Speaker 1>we talk about adolescents in particulars having a conversation UM

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<v Speaker 1>with someone last night talking about their toddler and that

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<v Speaker 1>they were so glad to actually, I think it one

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<v Speaker 1>or two year old be able to get them into

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<v Speaker 1>a school because they needed socialization. It was good for everyone.

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<v Speaker 1>What is potentially the lasting impact of our younger generation?

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<v Speaker 1>Our kids are really young kids if they're not socialized

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<v Speaker 1>properly at this age. Yeah. Absolutely, And this topic, like

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<v Speaker 1>you brought up, you were just having a conversation last night.

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<v Speaker 1>It's on the minds of a lot of Americans. Right now,

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<v Speaker 1>and we've seen I think we just to take a

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<v Speaker 1>step back and recognize we've gone through a collective trauma

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<v Speaker 1>as society and the impact has is going to be

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<v Speaker 1>seen for years. So particularly for young children, UM, they've

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<v Speaker 1>been hit harder by this trauma. Thinking that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>as adults, we've had decades of kind of security and

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<v Speaker 1>normalcy that we can put this into perspective, But for adolescents, children, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>this really has essentially impacted their life. And then when

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<v Speaker 1>we look at like you mentioned, the kind of social

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<v Speaker 1>skills and developmental stages of not having that social interaction

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<v Speaker 1>or having different platforms, you know, socializing through UM virtual platforms,

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<v Speaker 1>it's been very challenging. And I think that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>kind of the core of UM, of one of our

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<v Speaker 1>human needs is that connectiveness with others, and that leads

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<v Speaker 1>to like security and belonging and and so that's why

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing a lot of the increases around UM depression, anxiety,

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<v Speaker 1>even with younger children. Angelina, I want to talk a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit about the role of social media. Here we

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<v Speaker 1>are today Meta Platforms, the company formerly known as Facebook.

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<v Speaker 1>It owns Instagram and Facebook of course, UM. Where does

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<v Speaker 1>social media fit into mental health. Well, there's that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>when used um in a positive way, those social media

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<v Speaker 1>platforms can be extremely helpful when we've had to transition

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<v Speaker 1>our lives to you know, virtual platforms for connecting with others.

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<v Speaker 1>There's great um support groups and finding others that we

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<v Speaker 1>can connect with, whether it's our hobbies and we think

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<v Speaker 1>about a lot of our school activities have been discontinued

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<v Speaker 1>or the book clubs we belong to and things like that.

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<v Speaker 1>So we're using social media in those positive ways can

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<v Speaker 1>help us feel connected to others that have shared interests. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's a really positive thing. And then but also

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<v Speaker 1>recognizing that when we have our soul um kind of

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<v Speaker 1>interactions through our virtual platforms, then we um, we we

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<v Speaker 1>miss on some of those needs of you know, physical

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<v Speaker 1>touch and physical interaction UM and just being present um

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<v Speaker 1>with others. And sometimes we're on social media. UM. I

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<v Speaker 1>think we're all guilty of this is as being um

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<v Speaker 1>multitasking kind a bit and UM so being really fully

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<v Speaker 1>present and being intentional about that can really improve our

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<v Speaker 1>you know, feelings of connecting with others. I can't tell

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<v Speaker 1>you how many times I've heard the word intentional. Uh recently,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's it's a really good point because UM we

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<v Speaker 1>are constantly kind of lauding people for being able to

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<v Speaker 1>do a million things at once, and I think we

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<v Speaker 1>just missed the mark in such a big way. Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>I am curious, though, what kind of activity or demand

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<v Speaker 1>have you seen for your services since the pandemic began,

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<v Speaker 1>because you know, you guys specifically, you're a private behavioral

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<v Speaker 1>health treatment center. So I'm just curious what uptick and

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<v Speaker 1>demand have you seen and what types of cases. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that's so that's a great question. So um M s

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<v Speaker 1>M Healthcare UM really our program and our ganization is

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<v Speaker 1>geared around meeting the needs of our our community. And

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<v Speaker 1>so you know, even when we started twelve years ago

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<v Speaker 1>that we saw a need for residential of people that

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<v Speaker 1>have mental health and substance US and so we strive

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<v Speaker 1>to meet that need. And one thing we've done since

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<v Speaker 1>the pandemic is, as we were talking about the virtual

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<v Speaker 1>platforms and really seeing the need for continued access to

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<v Speaker 1>mental health services UM is we launched our Mission Connection UM,

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<v Speaker 1>which is a branch that offers UM Virtual Intensive Outpatient

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<v Speaker 1>and PHP, which is UM they treatment. It. It consists

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<v Speaker 1>of therapeutic groups during the day, individual therapy, psychiatric all

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<v Speaker 1>that can be done virtually UM. So that's an area

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<v Speaker 1>that we have recognized you don't have a need for it.

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<v Speaker 1>And then you know, broader from that, we see with

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<v Speaker 1>the UM there's been a great since the pandemic. It's

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<v Speaker 1>just a greater UM burden on our hospital systems and

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<v Speaker 1>on our first responders, and so a lot of times

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<v Speaker 1>we see people going through you know, they're in a

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<v Speaker 1>health crisis, they interact with the fire department, maybe end

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<v Speaker 1>up in a yer, go to a crisis program for

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<v Speaker 1>just three to five days, and then they're discharged back

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<v Speaker 1>to our patients. So our residential programs, yeah, that's you know,

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<v Speaker 1>typically forty five days. They can really um fill that

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<v Speaker 1>connectivity with others, really work on their underlying mental health

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<v Speaker 1>and depression anxiety. It's a it's no, no, that's okay,

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<v Speaker 1>we're running in a time, But I do. I think

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<v Speaker 1>that's such an interesting point. It's like how we think

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<v Speaker 1>about going to physical therapy when something goes wrong. We

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<v Speaker 1>may not need it for a long time, but we

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<v Speaker 1>need some help or acupuncture, and we need to think

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<v Speaker 1>about mental wellness in the same way. Angelina may thank

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<v Speaker 1>you so much, executive director for a MFM Healthcare on

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<v Speaker 1>the phone from Washington State. You're listening to Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovic

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<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio. It is our most read story on

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<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg. It's also today's Bloomberg Big Take. It's a reminder.

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<v Speaker 1>I guess you could save another era as big bonuses

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<v Speaker 1>on Wall Street. Tim, they are back the stories by

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<v Speaker 1>Shrinadarajin and Hannah Hannah levitt shere joins us. Now he's

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<v Speaker 1>finance reporter for Bloomberg News. He's what this is in

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<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg inactor broker studio. Okay, So let's let's talk

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<v Speaker 1>numbers here because we're we're starting to learn and we

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<v Speaker 1>did learn last week, uh, fifteen million dollars, twenty five

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<v Speaker 1>million dollars, thirty five million dollars, just how much executives

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<v Speaker 1>were paid in who got paid what, and how is

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<v Speaker 1>that different from recent years? Look anyway you slice and

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<v Speaker 1>dice it when you look across the street, when you

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<v Speaker 1>look at compensation levels from the most junior ranks to

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<v Speaker 1>the most senior ranks, this has been the biggest windfall

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<v Speaker 1>in the generation, you really have to go back to

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand and nine, and in some ways it does

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<v Speaker 1>feel like this is going back to the good old

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<v Speaker 1>days for rainmakers on Wall Street. We've gone through a

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<v Speaker 1>stretch nearly a decade post crisis, where after inviting a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of scrutiny and anger from lawmakers, especially in the

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<v Speaker 1>wake of the crisis, when the big banks went ahead

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<v Speaker 1>and rewarded some of their top talent in two thousand nine,

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<v Speaker 1>a year after the federal bailouts that forced them to

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<v Speaker 1>put a lid on how much they were paying these people.

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<v Speaker 1>And we also went through a period of what felt

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<v Speaker 1>like a little bit of a secular decline. Definitely in

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<v Speaker 1>trading all that change with the pandemic. There are some

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<v Speaker 1>echoes to what happened in the crisis, government intervention, market stabilized,

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<v Speaker 1>unleashed sort of this wild trading activity do you making

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<v Speaker 1>bonanza in twenty they showed some level of restraint. They

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<v Speaker 1>were printing record revenues and profits, but they were willing

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<v Speaker 1>to gap how much they were willing to pay people

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<v Speaker 1>because a they didn't know how long this would last,

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<v Speaker 1>and be the optics aren't really great to pay people

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<v Speaker 1>top dollar in the middle of a pandemic. Moving to

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<v Speaker 1>boom rumbled into a second straight here, but the conversation

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<v Speaker 1>shifted to retaining talent, the war for talent, people getting

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<v Speaker 1>fed up, tired and wanting to switch seats and frankly,

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<v Speaker 1>much better opportunities elsewhere in the financial landscape that has

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<v Speaker 1>forced the big bosses at the major US bank to

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<v Speaker 1>really open up their wallets. So was this going to

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<v Speaker 1>happen pandemic or no pandemic or was it accelebrated exacerbated

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<v Speaker 1>because of the fight for talent as some people maybe

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<v Speaker 1>left the workforce andone elsewhere. You really struggled to make

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<v Speaker 1>a case for this happening without a pandemic, because without

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<v Speaker 1>a pandemic, there was no reason in the typical growth

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<v Speaker 1>rate we've been seeing in trading and dealmaking activities for

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<v Speaker 1>banks to be able to print the kind of numbers

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<v Speaker 1>that they did, whether they accepted or not. That was

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<v Speaker 1>certainly this government intervention that started in March that a

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<v Speaker 1>stabilized the market and then ensured that it absolutely zoomed ahead.

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<v Speaker 1>And there is a very real argument to make that

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<v Speaker 1>without federal support through the absolute depth of the pandemic,

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<v Speaker 1>it wouldn't have happened. Can we talk about the coach

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<v Speaker 1>we got? We got to talk about the coach because

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<v Speaker 1>you and Hannah Levitt, who's the co author on that's

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<v Speaker 1>got some incredi information about Goldman CEOs coach. What did

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<v Speaker 1>you learn about a coaching session that they had to

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<v Speaker 1>prepare for congressional testimony? Just just to give our listeners

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<v Speaker 1>a sense of what we're talking about, we do point

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<v Speaker 1>out that not so long after David Solomon rose to

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<v Speaker 1>the top rank became CEO at Goldman Sex, he was

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<v Speaker 1>preparing for a congressional hearing. And there is a process

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<v Speaker 1>that's known as murder boarding, where effectively people executives at

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<v Speaker 1>the firm will throw all sorts of questions at the

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<v Speaker 1>top executive to try and give them a sense of

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<v Speaker 1>what they can expect from lawmakers at the Real Deal.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the questions posted David Solomon was would you

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<v Speaker 1>be open to paying higher taxes if it went towards

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<v Speaker 1>spending on social services? At first, he fume he thought

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<v Speaker 1>it wasn't the smartest question, but then the court said,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, Jamie Diamond has been awfully public about this

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<v Speaker 1>idea that he would willingly do it to which we

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<v Speaker 1>understand Solomon said, of course Jamie can say that because

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<v Speaker 1>he's made all his money. Why that is interesting is

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<v Speaker 1>that it offers a little window into the mindset. David

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<v Speaker 1>Solomon is among the class of newly climbing executives. He's

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<v Speaker 1>preached the top spot at Goldman Sachs in a very

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<v Speaker 1>different era than when Jamie Diamond ascended to the top.

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<v Speaker 1>And we talked about this new generation, this generation that's

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<v Speaker 1>at the top right now. They have missed out on

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<v Speaker 1>the richest reaped by executives and leaders who came much

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<v Speaker 1>before them, and that shows in the numbers. Jamie Diamond

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<v Speaker 1>is a billionaire two times over, and David Solomon is

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<v Speaker 1>not close to that. No one is saying David Solomon

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<v Speaker 1>is not rich quote unquote, but there still is a difference.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the sound of the times. Go to Bloomberg dot

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<v Speaker 1>com and read the story. We'll put it out on

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<v Speaker 1>Twitter Street down Rage and thank you so much, Financial

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<v Speaker 1>proter rat Bloomberg News. This is Bloomberg Business Week with

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<v Speaker 1>Carol Master and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, well, in the New yatsh of Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>read out in its entirety tomorrow online, on the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>and on NEWSSTANDZA story about the investors who have been

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<v Speaker 1>backing Kathy Wood in our arcs array of E t F.

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<v Speaker 1>They're sticking with our even as our flagship fund has

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<v Speaker 1>plummeted big time. Tim They are what the headline refers

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<v Speaker 1>to as true believers. Joe Weber is editor at Bloomberg Business.

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<v Speaker 1>He joins us on the access line from Brooklyn. The

0:12:18.920 --> 0:12:22.000
<v Speaker 1>story written by Sam Potter, among others. Sam is Senior

0:12:22.120 --> 0:12:24.440
<v Speaker 1>editor and E t F s R at Bloomberg News.

0:12:24.520 --> 0:12:26.520
<v Speaker 1>Check out this story. It'll be featuring the upcoming issue

0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:28.400
<v Speaker 1>of Business Week magazine. Also, you can read it now

0:12:28.400 --> 0:12:31.400
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg and on the Bloomberg terminal. I tweeted out

0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:35.480
<v Speaker 1>earlier today, Joel, what's happened with Kathy Wood's fund? We

0:12:35.480 --> 0:12:37.760
<v Speaker 1>know we've covered the performance close, their audience is familiar

0:12:37.840 --> 0:12:41.319
<v Speaker 1>with it, but something really interesting has happened. Um investors

0:12:41.320 --> 0:12:45.880
<v Speaker 1>are sticking with her, That's right. So it's um an

0:12:45.920 --> 0:12:49.760
<v Speaker 1>interesting phenomenon when from peak, you know, I think it's

0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:55.520
<v Speaker 1>down something like while S and P is up. Uh,

0:12:55.800 --> 0:12:59.800
<v Speaker 1>you would think most fund managers who endured something like that,

0:13:00.320 --> 0:13:05.000
<v Speaker 1>something like a sixty percentage points spread would see upflows.

0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:08.520
<v Speaker 1>And yet that's not entirely the case with Wood. Um,

0:13:08.520 --> 0:13:12.320
<v Speaker 1>it's proving to be really sticky assets. And why why

0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:16.400
<v Speaker 1>is that? Why do we think that's to be true? Sam? Yeah,

0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:20.160
<v Speaker 1>I'm because afternoon everyone. I mean, the fact is that

0:13:20.280 --> 0:13:23.600
<v Speaker 1>Chassie Wood has has really sold a story and narrative

0:13:23.640 --> 0:13:28.880
<v Speaker 1>of the future that investors appear her investors certainly appear

0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:34.600
<v Speaker 1>to really be on board with and to believe in. UM.

0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:37.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean to give some figures to what we're talking

0:13:37.240 --> 0:13:41.160
<v Speaker 1>about here. UM, the main fund, the ARC Innovation Fund,

0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:44.480
<v Speaker 1>is down about so far this year. It's actually got

0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:48.600
<v Speaker 1>positive flows, so it's got net inflows for this year

0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:55.400
<v Speaker 1>while it's poor. Um. The reasons are, you know, our

0:13:55.520 --> 0:13:58.559
<v Speaker 1>BI guys like to do a lot of analysis on this,

0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:02.679
<v Speaker 1>and they talk about how most invested these days are

0:14:02.679 --> 0:14:08.120
<v Speaker 1>heavily invested into big index funds, big boring market following funds,

0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:10.120
<v Speaker 1>and then what they do is with a little slice

0:14:10.160 --> 0:14:12.920
<v Speaker 1>of their investment, they take a risk, they take a gain,

0:14:13.040 --> 0:14:15.439
<v Speaker 1>or they want to put it on meme stocks or

0:14:15.520 --> 0:14:19.600
<v Speaker 1>on crypto, and ARC seems to fall into this this

0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:22.040
<v Speaker 1>kind of bracket. They call it the hot source. So

0:14:22.160 --> 0:14:24.080
<v Speaker 1>people have prepared to put their money in and leave

0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:27.120
<v Speaker 1>it in, and even with these heavy losses, they're still

0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:29.400
<v Speaker 1>kind of strugging and saying, you know what, I think,

0:14:29.480 --> 0:14:31.600
<v Speaker 1>I think this might come good and even if it doesn't,

0:14:31.640 --> 0:14:34.160
<v Speaker 1>come along for the ride. Well. And what's interesting too,

0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:36.360
<v Speaker 1>as you point out Tam and your story, is that

0:14:36.480 --> 0:14:38.840
<v Speaker 1>a lot of these people who have gotten in, a

0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:40.920
<v Speaker 1>lot of them right, have gotten in at the peak.

0:14:41.080 --> 0:14:43.440
<v Speaker 1>So I mean, if you were there from the get

0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:46.640
<v Speaker 1>go when she started out inception of all at all

0:14:46.880 --> 0:14:50.000
<v Speaker 1>of this, you made a lot of money. But if

0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:54.560
<v Speaker 1>you got in at the highs, you're hurting. Yeah, it's

0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:58.120
<v Speaker 1>a It's a classic story of sentiment, isn't it. The

0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:01.360
<v Speaker 1>bulk of the money came in just as as the

0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:05.520
<v Speaker 1>arc story really peaked. We're talking early last year. Um,

0:15:05.600 --> 0:15:10.560
<v Speaker 1>So when you actually calculate the volume of cash coming

0:15:10.640 --> 0:15:13.840
<v Speaker 1>in by the price that was paid at the time,

0:15:14.680 --> 0:15:17.400
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's an estimate, but but you're looking at

0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:21.600
<v Speaker 1>being underwater by about maybe twenty five percent sometimes in

0:15:21.640 --> 0:15:26.239
<v Speaker 1>the main fund for example. So yeah, people, the majority

0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:31.640
<v Speaker 1>of cast that's come in is arguably now reduced, but again.

0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:35.720
<v Speaker 1>You know, we've seen star managers before in history tells

0:15:35.800 --> 0:15:39.120
<v Speaker 1>us a tale, and it all unwinds when investors have

0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:41.880
<v Speaker 1>had enough and walked away. At one point, the arc

0:15:42.040 --> 0:15:46.080
<v Speaker 1>innovation thumb was down about six from its peak, and

0:15:46.160 --> 0:15:48.880
<v Speaker 1>yet we again we have inflows this year. You know,

0:15:48.920 --> 0:15:52.480
<v Speaker 1>it's an incredible story of faith. Blows are high. Isn't

0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:56.000
<v Speaker 1>that what we're supposed to do? So So another thing

0:15:56.040 --> 0:15:57.640
<v Speaker 1>that kind of stands out to me, or that I'm

0:15:57.680 --> 0:16:01.680
<v Speaker 1>curious about CM is you know, you mentioned the Innovation

0:16:01.680 --> 0:16:05.160
<v Speaker 1>Fund their flagship a r k K, but she has

0:16:05.520 --> 0:16:08.240
<v Speaker 1>other E T F that all have, you know, their

0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:10.560
<v Speaker 1>own spin on things. How sticky are the assets and

0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:14.840
<v Speaker 1>those funds compared to the flagship? Point it is true

0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:19.240
<v Speaker 1>that they are not they're not proving as durable. Um

0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:21.040
<v Speaker 1>we see, I mean it's a mixed picture across the

0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:26.200
<v Speaker 1>funds that we do see that proportional to the assets,

0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:29.240
<v Speaker 1>the outflows have been higher and the performance of a

0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:34.600
<v Speaker 1>number of those times is similar to our innovation So um,

0:16:34.600 --> 0:16:39.440
<v Speaker 1>it isn't you know, it isn't the universal thing. And

0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:41.360
<v Speaker 1>it's going to be really interesting to see how some

0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:44.280
<v Speaker 1>of those domes, especially the ones she launched quite late

0:16:44.400 --> 0:16:47.680
<v Speaker 1>on the Space Fund, the Transparency funds. It will be

0:16:47.680 --> 0:16:52.720
<v Speaker 1>interesting to see how those they're Um, I'm reasonably confident

0:16:52.800 --> 0:16:56.560
<v Speaker 1>this our innovation fund these around for the long haul,

0:16:57.120 --> 0:17:00.880
<v Speaker 1>but whether and how well the others survived remains to

0:17:00.920 --> 0:17:05.240
<v Speaker 1>be seen. Hey, um, just real quick, Sam, I'm I'm

0:17:05.240 --> 0:17:10.000
<v Speaker 1>wondering specifically about the idea of her social media following.

0:17:10.040 --> 0:17:12.879
<v Speaker 1>And it's interesting in here. I didn't know that she

0:17:13.000 --> 0:17:17.840
<v Speaker 1>had more followers than the biggest et f issuers can combined.

0:17:17.960 --> 0:17:21.720
<v Speaker 1>Right now, Yeah, that's right. She's got more than a

0:17:21.760 --> 0:17:25.119
<v Speaker 1>million followers herself and then her analysts, and it's not

0:17:25.200 --> 0:17:27.680
<v Speaker 1>a very big team ARC. I think the whole firm

0:17:27.760 --> 0:17:32.480
<v Speaker 1>is about forty five people. Um, the they've collectively got

0:17:32.480 --> 0:17:35.719
<v Speaker 1>another half a million, so taken together, is more than

0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:42.400
<v Speaker 1>Stage Street, Black Rock and Vanguard official Twitter handles combined.

0:17:42.960 --> 0:17:47.280
<v Speaker 1>And that sort of speaks to her breadth and her popularity.

0:17:47.320 --> 0:17:51.879
<v Speaker 1>And one of one of the ARC portfolio managers is

0:17:51.920 --> 0:17:53.720
<v Speaker 1>in the story and saying, you know, one of the

0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:56.439
<v Speaker 1>things that people like about us and why we have

0:17:56.600 --> 0:17:59.560
<v Speaker 1>these fans is because we're very transparent, you know, and

0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:02.200
<v Speaker 1>they do, to their credit, they do, you know, they're

0:18:02.800 --> 0:18:06.120
<v Speaker 1>cat Wood is often online. She tweets her research. They're thinking.

0:18:06.880 --> 0:18:10.240
<v Speaker 1>They are very engaged and as we've had a sort

0:18:10.280 --> 0:18:13.120
<v Speaker 1>of retail investor boom, I think that's really played into

0:18:13.160 --> 0:18:15.480
<v Speaker 1>their hands. Well, it's fascinating you really get into the

0:18:15.560 --> 0:18:17.720
<v Speaker 1>details that she's drawn in money. You know how she's

0:18:17.720 --> 0:18:19.760
<v Speaker 1>had to maybe lay out to some different bets and

0:18:20.000 --> 0:18:22.800
<v Speaker 1>those names that maybe don't trade as actively. Um, we

0:18:22.880 --> 0:18:25.120
<v Speaker 1>gotta run, Sam, Thank you so much. Sam Potter, Senior

0:18:25.200 --> 0:18:27.520
<v Speaker 1>Editor and e T. F s are Bloomberg News from London.

0:18:27.560 --> 0:18:29.639
<v Speaker 1>Joe Webber, Editor Bloomber business Week. This story in the

0:18:29.720 --> 0:18:32.920
<v Speaker 1>upcoming new issue of Business Week magazine. I also tweeted out,

0:18:32.920 --> 0:18:35.040
<v Speaker 1>so you can see that on my Twitter feed as well.

0:18:35.080 --> 0:18:36.719
<v Speaker 1>Wait a lot today, I'm tweeting a lot. I love

0:18:36.760 --> 0:18:39.800
<v Speaker 1>the stories. I'm starting to tweet again. You're listening to

0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:43.879
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes

0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:47.960
<v Speaker 1>Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So we've been talking about

0:18:48.000 --> 0:18:49.680
<v Speaker 1>what's the best credit card to get with our Jenny

0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:53.560
<v Speaker 1>Serene because she tracks this. Yeah, she covers fintech, she

0:18:53.600 --> 0:18:55.919
<v Speaker 1>covers credit cards, and we have her in the studio

0:18:56.000 --> 0:18:57.320
<v Speaker 1>for the first time in a while, So we gotta

0:18:57.320 --> 0:18:58.920
<v Speaker 1>do Jenny, what is the credit card that we should

0:18:58.920 --> 0:19:00.520
<v Speaker 1>have right now? How do we get the point? She

0:19:00.520 --> 0:19:03.640
<v Speaker 1>should start a blog. She really should. She's the points guy.

0:19:03.760 --> 0:19:06.080
<v Speaker 1>She's our own version of the points guy. Uh. Meantime,

0:19:06.119 --> 0:19:07.919
<v Speaker 1>we do want to talk about PayPal because man, it's

0:19:07.920 --> 0:19:11.760
<v Speaker 1>getting whacked today. Right now. It's down about uh certainly

0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:14.879
<v Speaker 1>I think the top decliner in the Nasdaq one hundred. Uh.

0:19:14.960 --> 0:19:17.399
<v Speaker 1>Let's get to it because apparently the company is getting

0:19:17.400 --> 0:19:20.560
<v Speaker 1>stung by bad actors. Jenny Strain is finance reporter for

0:19:20.560 --> 0:19:23.119
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News. She's with US and the Bloomberg Interactive Broker.

0:19:23.200 --> 0:19:25.840
<v Speaker 1>She wrote about these bad actors um PayPal as a

0:19:25.880 --> 0:19:29.280
<v Speaker 1>result shutting four point five million accounts, among other reasons,

0:19:29.359 --> 0:19:32.159
<v Speaker 1>the company taking a hit in the trade today. What

0:19:32.440 --> 0:19:35.760
<v Speaker 1>are bad actors? So? Last year, for the first time,

0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:38.399
<v Speaker 1>really ever, PayPal started to do what we've seen a

0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:41.040
<v Speaker 1>lot of other FinTechs do, which is say, um, you know,

0:19:41.040 --> 0:19:42.560
<v Speaker 1>if you sign up for a new account, will give

0:19:42.600 --> 0:19:45.639
<v Speaker 1>you ten dollars UM and really going hard after those

0:19:46.000 --> 0:19:48.879
<v Speaker 1>new users. And basically what they got hit with was

0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:52.080
<v Speaker 1>a bunch of fraudsters using bot farms um opening a

0:19:52.119 --> 0:19:55.440
<v Speaker 1>bunch of accounts fraudulently and not UM you know, not

0:19:55.560 --> 0:19:58.520
<v Speaker 1>intending to be legitimate customers at all. And so after

0:19:58.560 --> 0:20:01.240
<v Speaker 1>this big review they go through, they decide, Okay, we're

0:20:01.240 --> 0:20:03.359
<v Speaker 1>going to close those that we know our problem and

0:20:03.480 --> 0:20:06.040
<v Speaker 1>they're actually gonna stop doing that type of marketing in general.

0:20:06.080 --> 0:20:08.239
<v Speaker 1>So they have said, you know, we're no longer going

0:20:08.280 --> 0:20:12.080
<v Speaker 1>to like shoot for just growth and new users. Were

0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:14.040
<v Speaker 1>really going to try and focus on our existing users

0:20:14.080 --> 0:20:16.720
<v Speaker 1>and get them to use us more. Not about quantity,

0:20:16.840 --> 0:20:19.920
<v Speaker 1>but quality, that's what they're saying. But I mean, this

0:20:19.960 --> 0:20:22.320
<v Speaker 1>is an important metric right for how we measure the

0:20:22.400 --> 0:20:25.760
<v Speaker 1>successive PayPal and that's why this is dragging down or

0:20:25.800 --> 0:20:28.639
<v Speaker 1>in part really dragging down the share price today. Yeah,

0:20:28.720 --> 0:20:32.080
<v Speaker 1>so yesterday it was really interesting to hear the executives

0:20:32.119 --> 0:20:34.880
<v Speaker 1>on the earnings called talk about UM. You know, we're

0:20:34.920 --> 0:20:37.240
<v Speaker 1>not like a subscription business. We're not like a Netflix

0:20:37.280 --> 0:20:40.800
<v Speaker 1>where every new user automatically yields fifteen dollars a month

0:20:40.880 --> 0:20:44.120
<v Speaker 1>in revenue. So they really do depend on their existing

0:20:44.240 --> 0:20:46.679
<v Speaker 1>users using them a lot. And we did see a

0:20:46.680 --> 0:20:48.960
<v Speaker 1>little bit of that improve in the quarter. UM. I

0:20:48.960 --> 0:20:51.400
<v Speaker 1>think folks are using them. It's usually around forty five

0:20:51.480 --> 0:20:54.399
<v Speaker 1>to fifty times UM on average. And so that I

0:20:54.440 --> 0:20:59.040
<v Speaker 1>mean that month quarter, yeah, quarter exactly UM. And so

0:20:59.200 --> 0:21:00.720
<v Speaker 1>I mean, and that's going up. And so that's what

0:21:00.760 --> 0:21:02.360
<v Speaker 1>they want to see. And and so they're just saying,

0:21:02.400 --> 0:21:04.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, instead of putting our marketing dollars around, you know,

0:21:04.920 --> 0:21:07.880
<v Speaker 1>getting to our first billion users or whatever, um, they're

0:21:07.880 --> 0:21:11.320
<v Speaker 1>really focused on just making sure that the million that

0:21:11.359 --> 0:21:13.720
<v Speaker 1>they have are are using them a lot. You what's crazy?

0:21:13.880 --> 0:21:16.520
<v Speaker 1>In Max Chafkin's book about Peter Tile and they talk

0:21:16.560 --> 0:21:19.280
<v Speaker 1>about the origins of PayPal. This was an issue when

0:21:19.280 --> 0:21:23.760
<v Speaker 1>PayPal first started back in like twenty years ago, and

0:21:23.760 --> 0:21:26.560
<v Speaker 1>they're still battling it out today. Yeah, what's old is

0:21:26.600 --> 0:21:28.600
<v Speaker 1>new again. That's very that's very very true. I mean

0:21:28.880 --> 0:21:31.159
<v Speaker 1>it's honestly, it was kind of a perfect storm for PayPal.

0:21:31.200 --> 0:21:33.760
<v Speaker 1>They're dealing with a lot right now. Their former parent company,

0:21:33.760 --> 0:21:36.200
<v Speaker 1>eBay has announced that they you know, are moving there.

0:21:36.280 --> 0:21:39.280
<v Speaker 1>They're going their separate ways. So that's happening to them.

0:21:39.359 --> 0:21:42.000
<v Speaker 1>In general. ACoM didn't do as well as folks thought

0:21:42.040 --> 0:21:44.800
<v Speaker 1>it would during the holiday season. Um, that's obviously PayPal's

0:21:44.800 --> 0:21:46.879
<v Speaker 1>bread and butter. So they're just dealing with a lot

0:21:46.920 --> 0:21:48.679
<v Speaker 1>of different headwinds right now. Is there also just a

0:21:48.680 --> 0:21:51.159
<v Speaker 1>lot more competition out there? Or or tell me, like

0:21:51.200 --> 0:21:55.280
<v Speaker 1>what is paypals you know, future place in our financial world.

0:21:55.720 --> 0:21:58.760
<v Speaker 1>They are really aiming to be, honestly, the next like

0:21:58.840 --> 0:22:00.960
<v Speaker 1>Aunt financial or the next we chat. The things that

0:22:01.000 --> 0:22:02.760
<v Speaker 1>we've seen over in China that have done really well

0:22:02.840 --> 0:22:05.359
<v Speaker 1>is like a super app. So they want to be, um,

0:22:05.400 --> 0:22:07.119
<v Speaker 1>you're one stop shop for all things. I want to

0:22:07.160 --> 0:22:09.679
<v Speaker 1>be a wonder woman too, but you know here I am. Um.

0:22:10.080 --> 0:22:12.320
<v Speaker 1>The thing is they've really dominated an online checkout, So

0:22:12.359 --> 0:22:14.000
<v Speaker 1>that little button that you see when you're ready to

0:22:14.040 --> 0:22:17.720
<v Speaker 1>go check out online, um, PayPal is buying buying a

0:22:17.760 --> 0:22:20.800
<v Speaker 1>way the biggest player there. And they have secured and

0:22:21.520 --> 0:22:25.119
<v Speaker 1>established and fought off any other potential um you know,

0:22:25.240 --> 0:22:27.560
<v Speaker 1>up start there. So they're ready to do more. And

0:22:27.600 --> 0:22:29.000
<v Speaker 1>I think this will be a big test as to

0:22:29.080 --> 0:22:31.560
<v Speaker 1>whether or not, you know, adding all these new services

0:22:31.560 --> 0:22:35.040
<v Speaker 1>like crypto trading or coupons or shopping, you know, does

0:22:35.080 --> 0:22:37.280
<v Speaker 1>that really work? Does that? Is that what consumers think

0:22:37.280 --> 0:22:39.399
<v Speaker 1>of when they think of PayPal? Well, Jenny, because they

0:22:39.400 --> 0:22:41.320
<v Speaker 1>have had so much success when it comes to check out,

0:22:41.440 --> 0:22:43.760
<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering what exactly that product is and how it

0:22:43.800 --> 0:22:46.680
<v Speaker 1>benefits the company, because isn't it just using your PayPal

0:22:46.680 --> 0:22:49.720
<v Speaker 1>account to pay for whatever you're buying and the PayPal

0:22:49.720 --> 0:22:53.760
<v Speaker 1>account is linked to a debit card. Yes, so they

0:22:53.800 --> 0:22:55.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean they take a little bit of a percentage

0:22:55.560 --> 0:22:57.960
<v Speaker 1>the merchants. Every time you check out using PayPal, they

0:22:58.000 --> 0:23:00.320
<v Speaker 1>take a little bit of a percentage from the merchants. UM,

0:23:00.359 --> 0:23:04.200
<v Speaker 1>and that take great UM. It actually didn't decline last quarter,

0:23:04.240 --> 0:23:06.240
<v Speaker 1>which they were celebrating it. UM that take greade that

0:23:06.240 --> 0:23:09.040
<v Speaker 1>they get per transaction had been on the decline for

0:23:09.440 --> 0:23:11.800
<v Speaker 1>um a few quarters in a row. UM, so that's

0:23:11.800 --> 0:23:14.080
<v Speaker 1>looking a little bit better. But I think they realized

0:23:14.119 --> 0:23:16.760
<v Speaker 1>that that is not, you know, the kind of growth

0:23:16.760 --> 0:23:19.800
<v Speaker 1>story that everyone's excited about, and really not the growth

0:23:19.840 --> 0:23:21.920
<v Speaker 1>story that they sold during much of the pandemic when

0:23:22.320 --> 0:23:24.480
<v Speaker 1>e commerce was going crazy and folks were turning into

0:23:24.480 --> 0:23:27.280
<v Speaker 1>them left and right and volumes were through the roof. UM.

0:23:27.359 --> 0:23:30.840
<v Speaker 1>So they're really definitely focused on this super app strategy. UM.

0:23:30.880 --> 0:23:33.240
<v Speaker 1>But it's early days, and I don't think that they've

0:23:33.240 --> 0:23:35.880
<v Speaker 1>convinced everyone that, you know, that's the future. It's a

0:23:35.880 --> 0:23:38.800
<v Speaker 1>massive company and dollar market cap. I was kind of

0:23:38.840 --> 0:23:44.760
<v Speaker 1>surprised like it. But I do wonder, like, are they

0:23:45.160 --> 0:23:47.800
<v Speaker 1>it doesn't make sense for them to ultimately link up

0:23:47.840 --> 0:23:51.280
<v Speaker 1>with someone an established, more traditional financial company. Is that

0:23:51.359 --> 0:23:54.040
<v Speaker 1>a good way of kind of melding. I don't know.

0:23:54.240 --> 0:23:57.720
<v Speaker 1>I think well, so last year, UM, there was lots

0:23:57.720 --> 0:24:00.359
<v Speaker 1>of talk of them linking up with Pinterest, which was

0:24:00.440 --> 0:24:02.760
<v Speaker 1>kind of an interesting UM that's not what I was

0:24:02.800 --> 0:24:06.000
<v Speaker 1>thinking about, yeah, um, And but I think that's really

0:24:06.040 --> 0:24:07.920
<v Speaker 1>more what they're thinking. I don't think that they want

0:24:07.920 --> 0:24:09.920
<v Speaker 1>to go the route of, you know, linking up with

0:24:09.960 --> 0:24:12.840
<v Speaker 1>the bank, UM, but it could make sense. I think

0:24:12.840 --> 0:24:15.080
<v Speaker 1>they're a very interesting player in the sense that they

0:24:15.440 --> 0:24:18.160
<v Speaker 1>are a fintech. They're a tech giant, but they're firmly

0:24:18.200 --> 0:24:22.119
<v Speaker 1>in financial UM space. They have really good relationships with regulators.

0:24:22.200 --> 0:24:25.119
<v Speaker 1>They know how to navigate the intricacies of being a

0:24:25.119 --> 0:24:28.520
<v Speaker 1>big behemoth and finance and payments UM. So we'll see,

0:24:28.600 --> 0:24:30.440
<v Speaker 1>we'll see what they end up. Do they just very briefly,

0:24:30.480 --> 0:24:31.760
<v Speaker 1>do they have a they don't have a bank charter

0:24:31.960 --> 0:24:33.960
<v Speaker 1>right now. Do they work with other banks or do

0:24:34.000 --> 0:24:37.040
<v Speaker 1>they like other FinTechs UM for lots of different products,

0:24:37.080 --> 0:24:39.399
<v Speaker 1>they have bank partners and and all sorts of different

0:24:39.400 --> 0:24:42.040
<v Speaker 1>processing partners. Um, but they are not a bank, and

0:24:42.080 --> 0:24:43.480
<v Speaker 1>I know it's not apples to apples, but it's not

0:24:43.520 --> 0:24:45.360
<v Speaker 1>a UBS wealth front kind of thing. Like you don't

0:24:45.400 --> 0:24:48.280
<v Speaker 1>see something. They just feel like there's so much movement

0:24:48.359 --> 0:24:51.000
<v Speaker 1>right now. There could be they're just such an unusual

0:24:51.040 --> 0:24:52.760
<v Speaker 1>player and they're giant. I mean to your point, I

0:24:52.800 --> 0:24:56.920
<v Speaker 1>don't see a bank selling out two billions billion right now. Yeah,

0:24:57.119 --> 0:24:59.480
<v Speaker 1>all right, to be continued. As we'd like to say

0:24:59.840 --> 0:25:02.640
<v Speaker 1>to Seraine, we always have a great time when she's

0:25:02.640 --> 0:25:04.320
<v Speaker 1>in our studio or just we're chatting with her. She's

0:25:04.320 --> 0:25:07.399
<v Speaker 1>financial porter at Bloomberg News. Here in our interactive broker studio.

0:25:07.480 --> 0:25:10.840
<v Speaker 1>Check around on Twitter at Jenny Seraine. This is Bloomberg Radio.

0:25:12.200 --> 0:25:19.560
<v Speaker 1>I'm rod. Yeah, but you let me drive, no, honey, please,

0:25:19.680 --> 0:25:30.639
<v Speaker 1>I want to drive the question drive. This is the

0:25:30.800 --> 0:25:37.040
<v Speaker 1>Drive to the Clothing Well on Bloomberg Radio. All right,

0:25:37.200 --> 0:25:41.120
<v Speaker 1>got about eleven minutes, call it ten minutes exact left

0:25:41.119 --> 0:25:43.480
<v Speaker 1>in today's trading session. Let's get to it with our

0:25:43.560 --> 0:25:45.840
<v Speaker 1>Drive to the close. Guest Michael Rosen is co founder

0:25:45.880 --> 0:25:48.960
<v Speaker 1>and ce IO at the multi asset investment firm for

0:25:49.000 --> 0:25:53.159
<v Speaker 1>institutional and private wealth and investors. Angelus Wealth Management. He

0:25:53.320 --> 0:25:57.119
<v Speaker 1>is on the phone in Santa Monica, California. Um, Michael,

0:25:57.240 --> 0:25:58.840
<v Speaker 1>nice to have you here on Bloomberg. How are you?

0:25:59.240 --> 0:26:02.399
<v Speaker 1>I'm great? Thanks? How are you? You know? Seventeen sunny

0:26:02.440 --> 0:26:04.879
<v Speaker 1>out here? That's a little cold. There should be seventy.

0:26:05.880 --> 0:26:07.560
<v Speaker 1>As a California we can say it's kind of a

0:26:07.560 --> 0:26:09.359
<v Speaker 1>cold day. It's not what we get out here in

0:26:09.359 --> 0:26:12.160
<v Speaker 1>New York. Um, it's it's warm though. It's a little

0:26:12.240 --> 0:26:14.360
<v Speaker 1>more seatier on Wall Street has been what the last

0:26:14.440 --> 0:26:20.919
<v Speaker 1>four days or so? Um, how do you read the market? Trade? Well? Uh,

0:26:20.960 --> 0:26:25.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think, uh we we we saw a

0:26:25.119 --> 0:26:27.480
<v Speaker 1>correction of ten per cent or so in the SMP

0:26:27.880 --> 0:26:32.119
<v Speaker 1>and uh, you know, just a rotation out of expensive

0:26:32.160 --> 0:26:36.320
<v Speaker 1>tech stocks and the market a little unsettled around what

0:26:36.480 --> 0:26:38.840
<v Speaker 1>FED policy is going to look like, along with some

0:26:40.200 --> 0:26:43.119
<v Speaker 1>variability and data due to the omicron variant. So a

0:26:43.119 --> 0:26:45.920
<v Speaker 1>lot of things going on causing the market to sell

0:26:45.960 --> 0:26:48.879
<v Speaker 1>off of it. But I think if you if you

0:26:49.119 --> 0:26:51.280
<v Speaker 1>do not think that the economy is going to go

0:26:51.400 --> 0:26:57.560
<v Speaker 1>into a recession, which is my view, uh than corrections

0:26:57.600 --> 0:27:00.720
<v Speaker 1>historically have been good buying opportunities, and I think the

0:27:00.760 --> 0:27:03.960
<v Speaker 1>market just sort of realized that a couple of days ago,

0:27:04.080 --> 0:27:07.080
<v Speaker 1>and uh that's while we're up. So did investors miss

0:27:07.119 --> 0:27:10.000
<v Speaker 1>the opportunity to buy or is it going to be

0:27:10.160 --> 0:27:13.320
<v Speaker 1>kind of a rocky road for the next few months. No,

0:27:13.480 --> 0:27:15.640
<v Speaker 1>I don't think the investors missed the opportunity to buy.

0:27:15.640 --> 0:27:18.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean, we're still off our our highs here, although

0:27:18.280 --> 0:27:22.280
<v Speaker 1>obviously we've had a nice, nice little bounce back here. Again,

0:27:22.280 --> 0:27:24.640
<v Speaker 1>I think the underlying fundamentals of the economy are still

0:27:24.640 --> 0:27:26.880
<v Speaker 1>pretty strong. I think the economy will continue to grow.

0:27:27.560 --> 0:27:31.000
<v Speaker 1>Uh And you know, obviously questions around inflation and FED

0:27:31.080 --> 0:27:34.359
<v Speaker 1>policy and where where interest rates will will go. But rates,

0:27:34.440 --> 0:27:36.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, have you come down off their their peaks

0:27:36.560 --> 0:27:39.040
<v Speaker 1>here the curve is flattened, and you know, generally the

0:27:39.240 --> 0:27:43.720
<v Speaker 1>Fed is still pretty accommodative. Even with all the comments

0:27:43.760 --> 0:27:49.200
<v Speaker 1>around uh FED tightening and concerns about inflation, the Fed

0:27:49.280 --> 0:27:53.080
<v Speaker 1>today is still in the market buying bonds, the balance

0:27:53.080 --> 0:27:56.800
<v Speaker 1>sheet is still expanding, interest rates uh FED funds rate

0:27:57.040 --> 0:28:00.720
<v Speaker 1>is still as zero, So it's still very accommodate policy

0:28:00.760 --> 0:28:03.800
<v Speaker 1>and supportive of of assets at the moment. So does

0:28:03.800 --> 0:28:06.600
<v Speaker 1>the Fed then, potentially Michael need to shock as an

0:28:06.640 --> 0:28:11.040
<v Speaker 1>equity investor, as an investor overall managing portfolios for our

0:28:11.080 --> 0:28:14.160
<v Speaker 1>institutional investors high you know, high net worth individuals who

0:28:14.160 --> 0:28:16.600
<v Speaker 1>are looking at all different kinds of asset classes. Does

0:28:16.640 --> 0:28:18.719
<v Speaker 1>the FED though to some extent? Are you looking for

0:28:18.720 --> 0:28:20.560
<v Speaker 1>them to shock the markets a little bit with a

0:28:20.560 --> 0:28:22.720
<v Speaker 1>half a point increase? Would that be a good thing,

0:28:23.359 --> 0:28:25.600
<v Speaker 1>um maybe for the markets and taking some of the

0:28:25.640 --> 0:28:27.840
<v Speaker 1>fluff and some of the concerns about inflation out or

0:28:27.880 --> 0:28:30.800
<v Speaker 1>do you think that could be potentially an overdone move

0:28:30.920 --> 0:28:33.920
<v Speaker 1>by them. Yeah? I do. First, I don't think the

0:28:33.960 --> 0:28:35.960
<v Speaker 1>FED is going to do that. I think a basis

0:28:36.000 --> 0:28:38.480
<v Speaker 1>point move, a gradual, marginal move. I just don't think

0:28:38.480 --> 0:28:41.800
<v Speaker 1>they've really fully embraced the idea that inflation is a

0:28:41.840 --> 0:28:44.720
<v Speaker 1>big concern, and the markets have not embraced that at all.

0:28:44.800 --> 0:28:47.440
<v Speaker 1>We you know, we we see break even assumptions have

0:28:47.480 --> 0:28:50.520
<v Speaker 1>been coming down. The market thinks that inflation over the

0:28:50.560 --> 0:28:52.960
<v Speaker 1>next ten years will average actually less than two and

0:28:52.960 --> 0:28:55.000
<v Speaker 1>a half percent a year. So the market is not

0:28:55.040 --> 0:28:57.440
<v Speaker 1>concerned about inflation. The FED isn't either. I don't think

0:28:57.440 --> 0:29:00.480
<v Speaker 1>the FIT is going to make any dramatic moves. I

0:29:00.560 --> 0:29:03.160
<v Speaker 1>do think the FED is in the market actually is

0:29:03.240 --> 0:29:07.480
<v Speaker 1>perhaps underestimating the inflationary pressures that are are still in

0:29:07.520 --> 0:29:10.360
<v Speaker 1>the economy, and the FED is behind the curve, and

0:29:10.440 --> 0:29:13.280
<v Speaker 1>so I do think that there's a risk that the Fed, well,

0:29:13.480 --> 0:29:16.680
<v Speaker 1>we'll have to move further and faster at some point.

0:29:16.680 --> 0:29:20.080
<v Speaker 1>But my sense is that at the moment, the first

0:29:20.120 --> 0:29:23.320
<v Speaker 1>hike is just going to be a basis points as

0:29:23.360 --> 0:29:25.480
<v Speaker 1>they I think signals. Hey, we've been talking a lot

0:29:25.520 --> 0:29:27.720
<v Speaker 1>about the jobs report this week because the range is

0:29:27.800 --> 0:29:29.520
<v Speaker 1>just massive. And look what we saw from a DP

0:29:29.680 --> 0:29:33.640
<v Speaker 1>today UM an economists survey by Bloomberg expect a hundred

0:29:33.680 --> 0:29:36.040
<v Speaker 1>and fifty thousand. The range though, goes from you know,

0:29:36.920 --> 0:29:39.880
<v Speaker 1>negative several hundred thousand up to positive several hundred thousand

0:29:40.160 --> 0:29:46.320
<v Speaker 1>jobs added. Um. Yeah, like at the at the length,

0:29:46.440 --> 0:29:49.600
<v Speaker 1>not the width, right. Yeah, It's just a massive, massive

0:29:50.440 --> 0:29:54.520
<v Speaker 1>variability there. I'm wondering, Michael, how investors should should read

0:29:54.520 --> 0:29:57.080
<v Speaker 1>into that if it is a big miss. I mean,

0:29:57.360 --> 0:29:59.200
<v Speaker 1>who knows what the market reaction will be. But does

0:29:59.240 --> 0:30:01.960
<v Speaker 1>that change your and in about the fundamentals of the

0:30:02.000 --> 0:30:05.680
<v Speaker 1>economy at all. Yeah, So, the the ADP report this

0:30:05.720 --> 0:30:09.720
<v Speaker 1>morning was obviously a huge surprise on the downside, and

0:30:09.800 --> 0:30:11.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, you saw the market react, you very quickly,

0:30:11.880 --> 0:30:15.680
<v Speaker 1>bonds moved up very sharply, but have since, you know,

0:30:15.760 --> 0:30:17.840
<v Speaker 1>really come down and now there you know, I don't know,

0:30:17.880 --> 0:30:21.320
<v Speaker 1>maybe flat slightly up for the day, but uh so

0:30:21.400 --> 0:30:24.480
<v Speaker 1>an initial big reaction in the bond market. Stock future

0:30:24.520 --> 0:30:27.680
<v Speaker 1>has never really moved much. Uh So the stock market

0:30:27.680 --> 0:30:29.960
<v Speaker 1>doesn't really seem to be paying attention to the bond market,

0:30:29.960 --> 0:30:34.240
<v Speaker 1>did um. I think this sort of goes to the

0:30:34.320 --> 0:30:36.600
<v Speaker 1>volatility that we've seen some of the turbulence that we've

0:30:36.640 --> 0:30:39.320
<v Speaker 1>seen in the in the markets over the last month

0:30:39.400 --> 0:30:41.720
<v Speaker 1>or so, because we're getting a lot of data and

0:30:41.800 --> 0:30:44.280
<v Speaker 1>it's kind of all over the place, uh and you know,

0:30:44.320 --> 0:30:46.959
<v Speaker 1>a lot of it just feel still relates around the

0:30:47.000 --> 0:30:49.680
<v Speaker 1>omicron variant and the impact that that's had on some

0:30:49.760 --> 0:30:55.360
<v Speaker 1>of the economic activity, along with uh just concerns about

0:30:56.120 --> 0:30:58.680
<v Speaker 1>where inflations going and policy is going. So there's just

0:30:58.720 --> 0:31:00.520
<v Speaker 1>a lot of stuff going on here, and that's what

0:31:00.640 --> 0:31:03.479
<v Speaker 1>I think is leading to this volatility. I think the

0:31:03.480 --> 0:31:07.600
<v Speaker 1>the uh the Friday report, uh, you know, all over

0:31:07.640 --> 0:31:10.400
<v Speaker 1>the map. I have no idea where it's going to come,

0:31:10.400 --> 0:31:14.000
<v Speaker 1>but my senses though, uh that investors will probably look through,

0:31:14.040 --> 0:31:16.600
<v Speaker 1>at least in the stock market because the underlying economy

0:31:16.680 --> 0:31:19.800
<v Speaker 1>is strong. The labor market is tight. I just can't

0:31:20.600 --> 0:31:23.520
<v Speaker 1>envision a report on Friday that would really change that

0:31:23.520 --> 0:31:27.280
<v Speaker 1>that bigger narrative. Again, there there's variability around it due

0:31:27.320 --> 0:31:30.600
<v Speaker 1>to again some you know, whether its supply constraints or

0:31:30.880 --> 0:31:37.600
<v Speaker 1>or the pandemic related job issues. But fundamentally the labor

0:31:37.640 --> 0:31:40.040
<v Speaker 1>market is still very strong, and I think that's the

0:31:41.040 --> 0:31:45.680
<v Speaker 1>that's the message that equity investors anyway will will take

0:31:45.720 --> 0:31:48.640
<v Speaker 1>from from the data. Michael got about a minute left here.

0:31:48.720 --> 0:31:51.040
<v Speaker 1>So with all that you said, kind of on the macro,

0:31:51.720 --> 0:31:54.960
<v Speaker 1>what does it mean when you've actually put new money

0:31:55.040 --> 0:31:56.640
<v Speaker 1>or client money to work, where do you want to

0:31:56.640 --> 0:32:00.800
<v Speaker 1>commit it right now? Well throughout Jane where we raised

0:32:00.800 --> 0:32:03.520
<v Speaker 1>a bit of cash as the market was sort of

0:32:03.600 --> 0:32:05.760
<v Speaker 1>moving up and down, and um just in the last

0:32:05.760 --> 0:32:08.320
<v Speaker 1>week or so started to reinvest that cash. And I

0:32:08.320 --> 0:32:12.200
<v Speaker 1>don't think it's too late either. So I think I

0:32:12.240 --> 0:32:16.040
<v Speaker 1>think equities really are the place for for investors. Bonds

0:32:16.120 --> 0:32:21.200
<v Speaker 1>offer no value, in fact negative value. Uh and uh,

0:32:21.200 --> 0:32:23.920
<v Speaker 1>and I think the economy will continue to grow. Is

0:32:23.960 --> 0:32:28.360
<v Speaker 1>that a Tina comment? There is no alternative? Well, uh,

0:32:28.400 --> 0:32:30.920
<v Speaker 1>to a large except that that's that's true and that's

0:32:31.080 --> 0:32:33.640
<v Speaker 1>to a large extent, that's by design. The FETE has,

0:32:33.680 --> 0:32:36.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, created policies where we have inflation and low

0:32:36.720 --> 0:32:40.480
<v Speaker 1>interest rates and you know, forcing investors to get rid

0:32:40.480 --> 0:32:43.920
<v Speaker 1>of their their their cash and bonds and go into equities.

0:32:43.960 --> 0:32:46.880
<v Speaker 1>And and again I think, as as long as the

0:32:47.120 --> 0:32:52.600
<v Speaker 1>underlying economy is strong, uh, we don't go into a recession,

0:32:53.320 --> 0:32:57.440
<v Speaker 1>equity investors will will perform better than investors in in

0:32:57.640 --> 0:32:59.760
<v Speaker 1>other asset classes. All Right, We're gonna have to leave

0:32:59.760 --> 0:33:01.360
<v Speaker 1>it on that note. Hey, listen, Thank you so much.

0:33:01.360 --> 0:33:05.000
<v Speaker 1>Michael Rosen, his chief investment officer at Angelus Wealth Management,

0:33:05.040 --> 0:33:08.440
<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Santa Monica, California. Some good macro

0:33:08.520 --> 0:33:10.720
<v Speaker 1>thoughts there. Yeah, you know, also not a bad place

0:33:10.760 --> 0:33:13.840
<v Speaker 1>to be Santa Monica, seventy degrees And Sonny, right in

0:33:13.880 --> 0:33:17.680
<v Speaker 1>the beginning of February groundhog Day. That is a very

0:33:17.800 --> 0:33:22.320
<v Speaker 1>very good points I could take a little son Thanks

0:33:22.360 --> 0:33:26.240
<v Speaker 1>for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:33:26.360 --> 0:33:28.520
<v Speaker 1>or Bloomberg dot com. And you can also listen to

0:33:28.520 --> 0:33:31.080
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0:33:31.200 --> 0:33:34.000
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