Speaker 1: Super breakout. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody
Speaker 1: to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It
Speaker 1: is me, Joey Paid, Joe Pisapia.
Speaker 2: That guy over there is the Welsh, and it's you
Speaker 2: and today it's all about the breakouts. And yes, there's
Speaker 2: many different definitions of what a breakout is and we're
Speaker 2: gonna try to give you as many as we can
Speaker 2: on today's podcast. But before we do, I want to
Speaker 2: remind everybody make sure that you are getting involved in
Speaker 2: the giveaway because we've got a new one. It's that
Speaker 2: Austin Reiley Jersey courtesy of our friends at Pristine Auction
Speaker 2: dot com. Just head over to Fantasypros dot com slash
Speaker 2: MLB contest. All you gotta do, you know the drill,
Speaker 2: Subscribe to our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Fantasy.
Speaker 1: Pros MLB Again, that's the MLB one. That's what you're
Speaker 1: looking for.
Speaker 2: Specifically, we know you subscribe to the regular Fancy Pros
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Speaker 2: the MLB channel some love because every day we've got
Speaker 2: leading off starting with Welsh and myself and our cast
Speaker 2: of characters Monday through Friday, baseball right in your face.
Speaker 2: And that's gonna be out there on that YouTube channel
Speaker 2: as well. But like I said, you screenshot your subscription,
Speaker 2: you go to fantasypros dot com slash MLB contest and
Speaker 2: you enter, and that Austin Ridley, Jersey could very well
Speaker 2: be yours.
Speaker 1: That's right, it could be yours. Also, I know y'all
Speaker 1: got drafts coming up.
Speaker 2: We're kind of in that last weekend of drafts, so
Speaker 2: make sure you go check out our MLB draft kit
Speaker 2: over fantasypros dot com slash kit.
Speaker 1: Because it's free. It's awesome, Welsh. I mean, I don't
Speaker 1: have as many things in life that are free and awesome?
Speaker 1: Do you know of many? Because I don't.
Speaker 3: Let's see this podcast, that kit, Sunshine, that's it.
Speaker 1: Those are those are good things. That's that's a good
Speaker 1: list of things.
Speaker 2: Perhaps a slap from somebody if you get out of line,
Speaker 2: that could be free.
Speaker 4: The five fingers say to the safe safe slap. Did meme?
Speaker 4: Did you see my memes?
Speaker 3: I did not see your meme, But it's a well
Speaker 3: it's a whole nother story to talk about. But a
Speaker 3: lot of John Lack something else A lot of John
Speaker 3: Lackey's were for me and I had to do a
Speaker 3: meme of I did a Chris Rock will Smith meme
Speaker 3: of someone calls me John Lackey and the Welsh goes slap.
Speaker 2: There is a John Lackey quality to the Welsh and
Speaker 2: this is also why you subscribe to the YouTube channel.
Speaker 2: But going back to the draft kit, you do have
Speaker 2: to go to Fancypros dot com slash kit to get it.
Speaker 2: And I'm telling you're gonna dominate your drafts with the
Speaker 2: MLB Draft kit that we're offering right now Fantasy Pros.
Speaker 2: You got the consensus rankings, projections, the salary cap values
Speaker 2: for all you guys who with salary cap drafts. You
Speaker 2: got the principle cheat sheets. Also, our sleepers are bus
Speaker 2: or draft strategies. All that is together, even the prospects
Speaker 2: up for the dynasty leagues at Fancypros dot Com slash kit,
Speaker 2: So go check that out as well. Now, Welsh, I
Speaker 2: know that you might not have seen John Lackeye this
Speaker 2: past weekend, but you did run into San Diego padre Ore.
Speaker 1: And it was the greatest picture ever. So what was
Speaker 1: it like you and Blake Snell having a private moment together.
Speaker 3: Me and Blake Snell Man we got we would stay
Speaker 3: in hydrated. We was crazy, He's crazy. Yes, I did
Speaker 3: get to take a picture and meet the aforementioned Blake Snell,
Speaker 3: who my and I gotta tell you. Of all the
Speaker 3: things I've posted, the thing that got the most traction
Speaker 3: I've ever posted, obviously is my home run call, the
Speaker 3: Fernando Tatis Junior home run call, because that had its
Speaker 3: own life, it was on ESPN and stuff. This though,
Speaker 3: had the funniest comments, you know, because like easily to
Speaker 3: hurt my feelings in the Fernando Tatis call when not
Speaker 3: liking my voice or something. This everybody jumped in on it,
Speaker 3: and one of the common themes though was everybody asking,
Speaker 3: does Snell know your impression?
Speaker 1: Uh?
Speaker 4: No, If he did might have gone a little bit different. Though.
Speaker 3: I did kind of get a pseudo threatened by our
Speaker 3: dear friend Paul spor who is friends with Blake Snell,
Speaker 3: and he said, he said, I'm gonna share with him
Speaker 3: your impression.
Speaker 4: That was like, oh God, be.
Speaker 2: Pleasing, hoping you were doing the impression right to his
Speaker 2: face and he really didn't even notice.
Speaker 1: That was my no, what was going on? Inside my head.
Speaker 4: No, you have to.
Speaker 3: You have to do total troll mentality. Man, you have
Speaker 3: to internet tough guy. You have to do your internet
Speaker 3: thing or your podcast thing. And then in person you
Speaker 3: gotta go.
Speaker 4: Oh, hi, Blake, I'm such a fan. Can I take
Speaker 4: a picture? That's what you gotta do.
Speaker 3: That's the impression of what you do when you do
Speaker 3: an impression of him. But Scott Bogman did right, So
Speaker 3: I don't know if you saw this. This dropped today.
Speaker 3: That picture got so much traction that our dear friend
Speaker 3: Scott Bogman wrote lyrics because I joked around how it
Speaker 3: could be an album cover, and we do have an
Speaker 3: album cover. I saw the album picture. Would you like
Speaker 3: to hear some of the lyrics or not the lyrics
Speaker 3: the tracks?
Speaker 4: On tracks? You want to hear the track? Okay?
Speaker 1: Track?
Speaker 4: So track number one is gotta get mine? Uh? Two
Speaker 4: is mud people.
Speaker 3: That's a me thing. Three is not very nice. Can't
Speaker 3: get out of the six? And he said, out of
Speaker 3: the six, four is sweating for water, sweating for well,
Speaker 3: it's so hot out here, man. Number five is traded
Speaker 3: and faded. Number six is change or not to change up.
Speaker 3: Number seven is mean spotty facial hair. And number eight
Speaker 3: is I'm risking my life, risking I think that's the
Speaker 3: album title. I think that'll be me and Blake's at
Speaker 3: album title.
Speaker 2: Risking my life definitely, And I love that it was
Speaker 2: spelled with a y.
Speaker 1: That was that was the most important, That life was
Speaker 1: spelled with a why.
Speaker 3: You know, the worst part about it is Blake couldn't
Speaker 3: be a nicer, more funny person as well. He's not like,
Speaker 3: he's not like Creudgi or anything. He's he's very funny.
Speaker 3: He's very funny how he interacts with people. Loved to
Speaker 3: take pictures and stuff, and you know, he didn't know
Speaker 3: what he was getting into, just this dummy taking a
Speaker 3: picture with him and then going online and everybody, everybody
Speaker 3: having a lot of fun with it. A few mean
Speaker 3: ones out there about Blake getting at the six. I
Speaker 3: did it, man, I got mine. We stayed hydrated, we
Speaker 3: did a thing, and I did not like your tweet
Speaker 3: by the way. We were like, if we get a thousand,
Speaker 3: it'll do an impression the entire show. I didn't sign
Speaker 3: up for that, and that would be a night you didn't.
Speaker 2: Well give a thousands, so you're out of that. So
Speaker 2: if you want to go find that tweet at Joe
Speaker 2: PCPs seventeen. Again, it's two thousand likes. We could do that,
Speaker 2: So that's still on the table. Guards are on the
Speaker 2: table now. Today we're gonna go through the All Breakout Team,
Speaker 2: which last week we did the All Bus Team. Obviously,
Speaker 2: you know that went over huge because you know we
Speaker 2: do such great work over here at Fantasy Pros. But
Speaker 2: the Breakout team is a little trickier because you were
Speaker 2: mentioning before the show, you're sort of limited, right, you
Speaker 2: don't have a lot of guys. You're typically looking for
Speaker 2: the young guys, but you don't want to go with
Speaker 2: all rookies on this kind of team because that's just
Speaker 2: too easy because.
Speaker 1: Not all rookies are the guys that have breakouts.
Speaker 2: You have guys who have breakouts sometimes in their third
Speaker 2: or even fourth season or later in the major leagues.
Speaker 1: It's hard to identify them.
Speaker 2: We're gonna do our best today, and I gotta say
Speaker 2: most of the guys in this list are either I
Speaker 2: would say young or post hype sleepers, or guys that
Speaker 2: you know, we see that there's still potential and they
Speaker 2: haven't realized it. I feel like that's kind of what
Speaker 2: breakout is. Breakout is is a much wider definition. But
Speaker 2: I feel like we're gonna have a bunch of those
Speaker 2: different definitions and some of the guys that were going
Speaker 2: to be picking today.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but it is tougher, That's what I was saying
Speaker 3: to you, Like, I felt like, you know, if you're
Speaker 3: talking about bus, you really can go to anybody.
Speaker 4: But I felt like this.
Speaker 3: Pool was just it's a smaller pool to pick from
Speaker 3: because there's so many guys that you're not going to
Speaker 3: qualify as your breakouts. So I felt, you know, you
Speaker 3: had a really good list. Your list was out before
Speaker 3: mine was, and it took me a little bit to
Speaker 3: kind of, I think, really identify you know, where the
Speaker 3: breakouts are going to come from. And I think I
Speaker 3: even tow the line a little bit of the uh,
Speaker 3: the identifying of what a breakout really is.
Speaker 4: But we'll see what people think.
Speaker 2: All right, Well, let's see what people think of the
Speaker 2: catcher Welsh, who you have as your breakout catcher for
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two.
Speaker 3: Well, I thought you stole the good one. You stole
Speaker 3: the really really good one. But you know, I think
Speaker 3: this is the other guy. And again, if you got
Speaker 3: you look at catchers like how many I don't know
Speaker 3: about you, but like when you look like how many
Speaker 3: catchers were there really out there for us to choose from?
Speaker 3: If you're talking about breakout, there's some older guys that
Speaker 3: have kind of like, i'll behind the scenes. Max Stacey
Speaker 3: was one that I kind of thought about, but I
Speaker 3: was like, it's not like a breakout, Mitch Garver, that's
Speaker 3: not a breakout.
Speaker 2: So I would had a huge breakout season a couple
Speaker 2: of years ago exactly. I felt like that was kind
Speaker 2: of cheating because it already happened. That's the now that's
Speaker 2: more of a bounce back than.
Speaker 3: Had you identified this as maybe like the All value team,
Speaker 3: I think this could have been a different discussion and
Speaker 3: it would have been a different set of players and
Speaker 3: Garver and Stacy probably Stacy, honestly what might have been
Speaker 3: my pick. But with this one, I'm going over to
Speaker 3: the Giants and I'm going to go with the guy
Speaker 3: that's replacing Buster Posey, and I'm going to take Joey Bart.
Speaker 4: Now I'm gonna have kind of a theme to a
Speaker 4: lot of my guys.
Speaker 3: I have a lot of these second year kind of
Speaker 3: underperforming rookies giants. GM just recently said that Bart has
Speaker 3: looked as bad as good as he's ever looked. He's
Speaker 3: been working with definitely a big crew of catchers. He's
Speaker 3: going to go between being able to play catcher or
Speaker 3: DH because they want to keep his.
Speaker 4: Bat in the lineup. Is bat just hasn't been consistent.
Speaker 3: But I think one key here, especially for him staying
Speaker 3: in the lineup is this is, if I know it correctly,
Speaker 3: it's the first real off season that he has had
Speaker 3: a full run with all of the starting pitchers, all
Speaker 3: of the major leaguers and a job that he is
Speaker 3: walking in with him and that is significant. I think
Speaker 3: that is significant enough. Even Joey Dell is a guy
Speaker 3: that didn't have that, and this is like that first year.
Speaker 3: Those guys jumping into that space is pretty important. And
Speaker 3: Joey Bart has been always a pretty decent contact guy.
Speaker 3: There's big, there's thirty plus power in there.
Speaker 4: For sure. He could go the way of actually think
Speaker 4: he could.
Speaker 3: Be very mimic like a Gary Sanchez, where he could
Speaker 3: have a couple of really good years of high batting
Speaker 3: average and high homers and then they could fall apart
Speaker 3: as well. But Joey Bart is free in drafts right now.
Speaker 3: He's got a home in multiple spots. The DH is
Speaker 3: really important to his bat and I think when you're
Speaker 3: just playing around at the bottom pool of catchers, if
Speaker 3: you really want to talk about breakouts, Joey Bart is
Speaker 3: a guy that could potentially move himself up into a
Speaker 3: catcher one in a twelve probably more like a fifteen
Speaker 3: man league. You're hitting in Colorado, you're hitting in Arizona,
Speaker 3: there's some really a good hitter, friendly parks, inner division Wise,
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take Joey Bart.
Speaker 1: I like it.
Speaker 2: And the guy that Welsh is alluding to that I
Speaker 2: took for catchers Tyler Stevenson, who you know last year
Speaker 2: hit for two eighty six average, had ten home runs.
Speaker 2: I think the reason why I'm hi on Stevenson this
Speaker 2: year is I think a better spot in the batting
Speaker 2: order is going to be there for him. So that
Speaker 2: is huge, and were always evaluated his talent. I think
Speaker 2: now that you've gotten rid of Winker and Suarez, there's
Speaker 2: no way you can't imagine Stevenson if you want to
Speaker 2: hit him six or five, who knows, maybe some days
Speaker 2: you want to hit him two potentially. So basically he
Speaker 2: was left in that lineup, you got Joey Vada left
Speaker 2: in that lineup, you got Jonathan India left in that lineup.
Speaker 1: Tyler Nake wins around.
Speaker 2: I mean, I think that Stevenson is a player that
Speaker 2: I know catchers don't play every day, but I do
Speaker 2: believe even with that DH maybe he's going to see
Speaker 2: a little bit more at bats to get that bat
Speaker 2: in the lineup. So there's two things going for his
Speaker 2: favorite I like so much. Besides the nice season he
Speaker 2: put together last year. The good preferrals from last year
Speaker 2: we all know of. But what's going from this year
Speaker 2: is I think a move up the lineup and that
Speaker 2: DH because if he is swinging the bat pretty well,
Speaker 2: you can still get him in the lineup. And I
Speaker 2: think those DHF bats are going to be crucial because
Speaker 2: when you have catchers that are going to not just
Speaker 2: take a day off, but take a day off and
Speaker 2: still swing the bat, that's big. That really matters a
Speaker 2: great deal because that's gonna be an extra what you
Speaker 2: say four times three carry the one, I mean that
Speaker 2: could be an extra hundred at bats over the season.
Speaker 3: And rush a resource has him set at four right now,
Speaker 3: which is a you know, fantastic part of the lineup
Speaker 3: to hit. Like you said, the DH allowing him to
Speaker 3: move spots. He could play first base, you know, if
Speaker 3: there's any injury.
Speaker 4: Stuff with Joey Vada.
Speaker 3: Kind of flexible, really smart kid. I actually interviewed him
Speaker 3: in the Arizona Fall League. He won the I forget
Speaker 3: the name of it, so apologies, but it's kind of
Speaker 3: like the the personality, you know, like the guy of
Speaker 3: the Year in the AFL, not the best performer, but
Speaker 3: like the best like team leader. Cole Tucker had won
Speaker 3: it and Tyler Stevenson won it the year after.
Speaker 1: He's just in geniality.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's kind of what it is.
Speaker 2: And he came out with the Sandra Bullock of the
Speaker 2: Cincinnati Red Organization totally and he was all like cowboyed
Speaker 2: up when he came out to its some big old
Speaker 2: boots on and he was out in the field.
Speaker 3: He's just like a really nice guy, good hitter, he is.
Speaker 3: He's actually best friends with Taylor Tremmell, who's now with
Speaker 3: the Seattle Mariners, and he's got a big bat and
Speaker 3: there's big home run potential and he's played some first
Speaker 3: so a little bit of flexibility I.
Speaker 4: Like out of him.
Speaker 3: High in the lineup, I like at him. It just
Speaker 3: got to determine our guys going to be on base.
Speaker 3: But you do have Jonathan India, who roster resource has
Speaker 3: his leading off, Tyler Naquin and Joey Vado in front
Speaker 3: of him.
Speaker 4: That's not a bad group.
Speaker 3: That might be a sneaky seventy five eighty RBI that
Speaker 3: come into a guy like Tyler Stevenson. And the thing
Speaker 3: we have to quantify for all catchers is there's more
Speaker 3: potential at bats for every single one of these guys.
Speaker 3: We just don't one hundred percent know who like Will
Speaker 3: Smith well, but that doesn't.
Speaker 1: Guys just sitting clean up every day is far more
Speaker 1: likely it's gonna be somebody like Stevenson. Because that's what
Speaker 1: I'm saying, that spot when he's out.
Speaker 3: Varshow Will Smith. Will Smith, like I said, not the puncher,
Speaker 3: the Dodger. He's a guy that's gonna be in the
Speaker 3: d H spot and then you're gonna get Tyler Stevens.
Speaker 3: It's not every single catcher, but it's on the table
Speaker 3: for any catcher with a bat to get more at
Speaker 3: bats this year, which also might even be a little
Speaker 3: bit of a separator when we look at like, you know, ooh,
Speaker 3: Dalton Varshows so much more valuable because he's an outfielder.
Speaker 3: It's like, well, it's probably gonna be a level playing field.
Speaker 3: It's more valuable because of the stolen bases. But I digress.
Speaker 3: Stevenson and Bart breakout catchers.
Speaker 1: All right, who's the first basement on your list? Welsh?
Speaker 3: Oh, first baseman? I really liked yours, so this one
Speaker 3: is I think. No, I mean, I love your guy,
Speaker 3: but no, I picked extra guy that hasn't done anything,
Speaker 3: so he's not only gonna break out, he's got a
Speaker 3: break in. And I'm going with Spencer Torkelsen because I
Speaker 3: went through the first baseman and I didn't see really
Speaker 3: any that I would like. I said, I would quantify
Speaker 3: as like a breakout first baseman. I think there's some
Speaker 3: great values later on with a whole bunch of guys,
Speaker 3: even into the CJ crones and stuff. But Torkelsen, the
Speaker 3: breakout is simply him breaking through the roster, and I
Speaker 3: think he will. I think he's got a legit shot.
Speaker 3: I've said it a gajillion times over. Miggey wants him
Speaker 3: to play first, even though he was drafted as the
Speaker 3: third basement. They want him there. He's got multi position eligibility,
Speaker 3: good defender, and he's got a live bat, and he's
Speaker 3: kind of free. You know, these rookies, Bobby WIT's not free,
Speaker 3: He's sure not. He's been moving up into.
Speaker 1: The top out after draft. Seat well, Bobby Woit's awesome.
Speaker 3: The NFBC some of the drafts, I think the main events,
Speaker 3: he was going in the top fifty to sixty. So
Speaker 3: he's not free anymore. Torquosen is still free, and he
Speaker 3: has got a very good opportunity to break camp. And
Speaker 3: you know, there's it's tough to say with the rookie
Speaker 3: in the bumps he's going to go through. He's a
Speaker 3: little bit susceptible to stuff in the zone. It's kind
Speaker 3: of been his little, you know, notch that guys have
Speaker 3: known on him. Has rubbed since ASU, since he was there,
Speaker 3: and he's been working on that lower half, especially on
Speaker 3: breaking pitches, and that.
Speaker 4: Could be a little bit of a problem.
Speaker 3: I've also seen him get really really heavy kind of
Speaker 3: singles hittory, like not lofting the ball the whole bunch,
Speaker 3: which could maybe have shades of like first year Vladimir Guerrero,
Speaker 3: but it doesn't matter.
Speaker 4: He's free.
Speaker 3: So I'm going to take as a first baseman as
Speaker 3: my my all breakout team, I'll go with Spencer Torkelsen.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a good one. It's a good one.
Speaker 2: I mean, I know it's sort of trendy rookie, but
Speaker 2: it doesn't mean it can't come to fruition for me.
Speaker 1: It's a guy that got tasted in.
Speaker 2: The big leagues last year and he was okay, Alex Kiroloff.
Speaker 2: Not everybody comes up and just absolutely mashes from the
Speaker 2: get go. But if you look at the track record
Speaker 2: historically of Alex Kierloff, you go back at two hundred
Speaker 2: and eighty one minor league games, the guy hit three
Speaker 2: eighteen with a three sixty six obp, a five to
Speaker 2: zero three, slugging an eight sixty nine ops. This is
Speaker 2: a guy who can get on base. He's gonna make contact,
Speaker 2: he's got some pop. I think he's gonna grow a
Speaker 2: little bit more power as time goes by. You have
Speaker 2: to go back a couple of years to see like
Speaker 2: a bigger power season that combination. But he's only twenty
Speaker 2: four years old, so there's still you know some growth
Speaker 2: potential there.
Speaker 1: But Kira Lof qualifies at first.
Speaker 2: He qualifies an outfield, so it gives you a position
Speaker 2: for flexibility. And I feel like he's a player people
Speaker 2: have kind of forgotten about, and that's perfect because he
Speaker 2: is going to be a nice player.
Speaker 1: I'm looking like.
Speaker 2: Player profile wise, could he be an all star level
Speaker 2: nice player? Probably at some point he could get there,
Speaker 2: but the very least right now, when you're looking at
Speaker 2: ADP and you're looking at the opportunity for guys like
Speaker 2: kiralof Uh, to me, it's a no brainer, especially if
Speaker 2: you're looking in those leagues where you're playing in those
Speaker 2: corner infielders.
Speaker 1: You're looking for a guy who might have some upside.
Speaker 2: Still, to me, it's kiral Off and right now he
Speaker 2: is going at one eighty five overall. He's the twenty
Speaker 2: fifth first basement off the board. So I'm a Kira
Speaker 2: Loff guy. Why are you a Kira lov guy? Wa?
Speaker 3: I love think is another guy I got to actually
Speaker 3: speak to some years ago on my show Prospect One.
Speaker 3: His dad is a pretty prolific hitting coach. He's got
Speaker 3: to think like a whole hitting series that he does,
Speaker 3: and he trains kids to Lemanski.
Speaker 1: That is that nod.
Speaker 4: I think it's an actual career off.
Speaker 3: It's an actual well you don't I remember like the
Speaker 3: videos that like late at night videos where.
Speaker 4: It's like do you want to learn exactly?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Didn't Billy Ripkin also have Doesn't he still have like
Speaker 3: a hitting series?
Speaker 1: Yeah, but he's got banned because they had bad language
Speaker 1: in it.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Well, at the bottom of the bat and a rookie card.
Speaker 3: Uh No, kiraal Off really really smart hitter that's always been.
Speaker 3: That's kind of a thing I really attached myself to
Speaker 3: with a lot of prospects.
Speaker 4: Is this a guy?
Speaker 3: Is this a high contact type of hitter? And that's
Speaker 3: who Kilof has always been? You said, he's been three
Speaker 3: hundred plus throughout his minor league career. His first step
Speaker 3: into the majors hits two fifty. He kind of was working.
Speaker 3: He's been working over the last couple of years. He's said,
Speaker 3: little Nixon injuries. He had a wrist injury that left
Speaker 3: him coming out of the AFL in twenty nineteen. So
Speaker 3: getting like real distinct at bats has been important for him.
Speaker 4: He's a groove guy. He's got a beautiful swing.
Speaker 3: He does get loft into his swing, and I don't
Speaker 3: think two fifty is indicative of who he is. I truly,
Speaker 3: truly believe that Alex Kiloff is a two eighty to
Speaker 3: three hundred type of hitter consistently, and I would actually
Speaker 3: like in him maybe to a little bit more like
Speaker 3: a Goldie as far as a hitter, he's going to
Speaker 3: be that with that type of contact, he's going to
Speaker 3: step into power. I don't think he's going to steal
Speaker 3: a whole lot. And athleticism is a little bit in question.
Speaker 3: So first base I think is his ultimate home. But
Speaker 3: I believe in him as a hitter. And this is
Speaker 3: a guy that just doesn't have enough Major league at
Speaker 3: bats to prove anything. So if I were keeping with
Speaker 3: my trend of some of the guys I'm trying to
Speaker 3: go with, this is a prime candidate of the You know,
Speaker 3: all of those high end rookies over the last year
Speaker 3: and a half that have been coming up and not
Speaker 3: been producing. You know, you had COVID, you had weird
Speaker 3: training regimens, you had all of the restrictions that were
Speaker 3: out there, and then also these guys take a little
Speaker 3: bit sometimes And kier Lof is a prime example of that,
Speaker 3: and I love that pick.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Honestly, had COVID not happened, there might be a
Speaker 2: chance he might be further along already. So I think
Speaker 2: that twenty twenty death he said a lot of guys
Speaker 2: like him who will right on that precipice that year
Speaker 2: in development.
Speaker 1: It set them back a whole season. For me.
Speaker 3: Also, in twenty nineteen in the Arizona Fall League, I
Speaker 3: got to speak with Royce Lewis, and when I was
Speaker 3: interviewing him, I kind of asked like, Hey, where is
Speaker 3: Alex you know? And he had hurt his wrist earlier
Speaker 3: that year and it was leading up and he got
Speaker 3: right back in time for the minor league playoffs, and
Speaker 3: he just didn't want to come, like he wasn't ready yet.
Speaker 3: And then you had COVID, and then you had the
Speaker 3: two thousand and one season all stapped on top of it,
Speaker 3: and it pushed guys like Royce Lewis got pushed back
Speaker 3: as well. Royce lost the entire last year with injury.
Speaker 3: So both of those guys, had you not had the
Speaker 3: COVID here probably would have been big impacts. In twenty
Speaker 3: twenty one, Carrelf was a little bit this will be
Speaker 3: the adjustment period for Alex Kerlof, and then this will
Speaker 3: probably be the actual run for Royce Lewis this year.
Speaker 1: Let's stick a quick break in the action to tell
Speaker 1: you about fan Tracks.
Speaker 2: I want to tell you about an awesome baseball giveaway
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Speaker 1: Let's move across the diamond to second base.
Speaker 2: Now, who is the second baseman that make sure all
Speaker 2: breakout team Welsh.
Speaker 3: So this is one of probably like two players that
Speaker 3: might push the limits of this trend that I'm going with.
Speaker 3: But I'm going with Josh Rojas with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Speaker 3: Josh Rojas, who by the way, has forty nine games
Speaker 3: played last year at second base. He had I think
Speaker 3: like eleven or twelve or something at shortstop and outfield.
Speaker 3: So pinning the league or the format site that you
Speaker 3: play on, he might have two to three different position eligibilities.
Speaker 4: For him, which is really nice.
Speaker 3: Josh Rojas looks like he's going to lead off for
Speaker 3: the Arizona Diamondbacks this year, something that it's not the
Speaker 3: biggest deal in the world. The Diambacks just resigned katetel Marte,
Speaker 3: which they look like they're in a really bad spot
Speaker 3: for what they're doing and how much money they don't
Speaker 3: want to spend. But they just resign kateel Marte to
Speaker 3: keep him for five more years. Really says something to
Speaker 3: me about a guy like him not going this year,
Speaker 3: and then, oh my god, who is going to hit
Speaker 3: Josh Rojas in who is going to be there?
Speaker 4: Is it going to be Peven Smith, Christian Walker and Rojas?
Speaker 3: No, Katl's going to stay and he's going to be
Speaker 3: here for a while and maybe they'll be more aggressive.
Speaker 3: And how does that relate to Rojas? Well, these are
Speaker 3: the guys are going to be hitting behind him. He
Speaker 3: leads off for the Diamondbacks, which is huge, more at bats.
Speaker 3: This is a double digit steals and homer. Guy hit
Speaker 3: a homer just the other day in spring training.
Speaker 1: Crush.
Speaker 3: I'm trying to remember who it was off of. I
Speaker 3: want to say Granky or something. He just absolutely crushed it.
Speaker 3: This is a fifteen to fifteen guy who's going to
Speaker 3: lead off for the Diamondbacks. Probably eighty plus runs is
Speaker 3: not a very good team. But I think this is
Speaker 3: the opportunity where I think most site projections have him
Speaker 3: around like eleven or twelve homers, eleven or twelve stolen
Speaker 3: bases that he could push twenty twenty.
Speaker 4: Because he's going to push.
Speaker 1: At bass to twenty twenty twelve.
Speaker 4: You think the power is there.
Speaker 1: I think.
Speaker 3: I mean, if I were like putting money on it,
Speaker 3: I would go more fifteen to twenty. But the problem
Speaker 3: is or The positive is he's going to get so
Speaker 3: many more at bats than the rest of these Diamondbacks,
Speaker 3: assuming they can actually turn the lineup over more opportunities.
Speaker 3: As long as he doesn't struggle is great. Plus he's
Speaker 3: roster flexible where he can move around. There's not a
Speaker 3: lot of reason to take him out of the lineup
Speaker 3: because he can play outfield, shortstop, second base. How many
Speaker 3: guys do you have like that that I think you
Speaker 3: know you're gonna push high into the six hundreds of
Speaker 3: it bats that might get him a couple more homers,
Speaker 3: So fifteen plus if I were breaking out, but maybe
Speaker 3: twenty stolen bases.
Speaker 4: Lavello is bad about stealing bases.
Speaker 3: His job is on the line, and the Diamondbacks have
Speaker 3: got to manufacture runs. And that's what I like about Rojas.
Speaker 3: The stolen bases might be extra sneaky. So I'm gonna
Speaker 3: pick him for my second base breakout.
Speaker 2: All right, for my second base breakout, It's Brendan Rodgers.
Speaker 2: Let's go, baby, I'm excited. Colorado bats always make me happy.
Speaker 2: And last year, I mean, if you're looking at what
Speaker 2: he did last year too, eighty four, three, twenty eight, four,
Speaker 2: seventy slash. Okay, I'll take that for a guy who's
Speaker 2: twenty four years old. Again, it's funny say Mage's kill off.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: So a lot of my breakout guys are kind of,
Speaker 2: you know, a little past the prospect age of you know,
Speaker 2: maybe a little bit of ballooms off the rows. But
Speaker 2: once upon a time, Brendan Rodgers was this guy that
Speaker 2: everybody was basically falling over themselves to draft. If you
Speaker 2: look at his minor league track record. I know some
Speaker 2: favorable ballparks there too, but the minor leagues for him,
Speaker 2: this is a guy at two ninety eight, three fifty four,
Speaker 2: five oh four. You always saw the power there a
Speaker 2: career eight fifty eight ops there in the minor league.
Speaker 2: So to me, that's gonna track. He's gonna get a
Speaker 2: fair amount of playing time. The Rommel Tapia trade really
Speaker 2: opens up time for Connor Joe now. So I feel
Speaker 2: like Brendan Rodgers this is his job now, I feel
Speaker 2: like and we had one hundred and.
Speaker 1: Two games last year he performed pretty well.
Speaker 2: You're always gonna worry a little bit about guys outside
Speaker 2: of Colorado. I get that, But at the same time,
Speaker 2: when you're looking at value and you're looking at potential
Speaker 2: that you're gonna look. He's going after guys like Labor
Speaker 2: Torres is going after guys like cronin Worth. He's going
Speaker 2: all the way down at second basement number twenty one.
Speaker 2: He's won seventy five overall. That is really cheap. So
Speaker 2: for me, Brent Rodgers is this guy that I think
Speaker 2: is gonna hit for a decent average, probably gonna approach
Speaker 2: twenty bombs. That's pretty good at second base because there's
Speaker 2: not a lot of guys at second base have to
Speaker 2: get past that first grouping. I feel like Polanco's that cutoff,
Speaker 2: and then after that it's a little dicey from like
Speaker 2: ten to twenty, and then there's guys I like after
Speaker 2: that in one of them is definitely Brendan Rodgers. So
Speaker 2: let's move over to the third base side, the hot corner.
Speaker 2: Who's man in the hot corner on the all breakout
Speaker 2: team for the Welsh.
Speaker 4: I am going with Alec Bohm.
Speaker 3: This is one of those guys I've talked about a
Speaker 3: couple of times where it's like there's just not enough
Speaker 3: career at bats. I think he's got just under six
Speaker 3: hundred career plate appearances, it's spread out from twenty twenty
Speaker 3: and it feels like he's got a lot more. But
Speaker 3: this guy has like one legit season under his belt
Speaker 3: spread across these last two years. He's turned in twenty five.
Speaker 3: He's always been He's a field guy. That's the thing
Speaker 3: that when I spoke with him, like he wasn't into
Speaker 3: like a lot of analytics, and he wasn't into launching.
Speaker 3: He was a field guy with pure raw power, so
Speaker 3: he knew when he made contact the ball was going
Speaker 3: to travel. Now, since that time, he's made it to
Speaker 3: the majors. He's gotten to work with Bryce Harper, who
Speaker 3: took him under his wing.
Speaker 4: I think he's felt some serious struggles. His strikeout rate.
Speaker 3: I think was kind of one of the highest that
Speaker 3: he's dealt with. It was a twenty six almost twenty
Speaker 3: seven percent last year, and he's usually sat. I think
Speaker 3: he's at a career twenty four percent. That might actually
Speaker 3: only be doing the majors. I mean in the miners,
Speaker 3: he really never had outside of like ten plate appearances,
Speaker 3: he never had a season over twenty strikeout person. So
Speaker 3: I mean he's striking out a little bit more. He's
Speaker 3: pressing as he's learning who he is as a hitter.
Speaker 3: This is prime time for him to learn who he
Speaker 3: is as a hitter. And there's a lot of good
Speaker 3: boppers in there. They bring in like Castianos and Schwarber
Speaker 3: as well.
Speaker 2: And these are just in that lineup now, so much
Speaker 2: less pressure. There's so much pressure on that kid.
Speaker 1: I felt like and.
Speaker 3: Also and also think about the possibility of like I'd
Speaker 3: have to look where he is in the lineup. I'm
Speaker 3: assuming he's gonna hit like six or seven, but the
Speaker 3: guys that are gonna be in front of him are
Speaker 3: most likely going to be the Schwarbers, the Castianos and
Speaker 3: the Harpers. There might be really great there might be
Speaker 3: really great RBI opportunities. And for a guy that is
Speaker 3: more hit than he is power, he's like an anti Schwarber,
Speaker 3: Like Schwarber is just a gripe and rip it type.
Speaker 4: Of guy that's not Boem.
Speaker 3: So I to lean a little bit hopefully you know,
Speaker 3: he's embraced analytics a little bit more. And you know,
Speaker 3: having a guy like Harper and your Bilt is fantastic.
Speaker 3: And there's a lot of other good power hitters that
Speaker 3: you know, maybe can rub off on different ways to
Speaker 3: attack the ball that this seems like the prime yere
Speaker 3: you talk about it. This is the post hype sleeper.
Speaker 3: A lot of these guys are these. Alex Kureloff prime example,
Speaker 3: post hype sleeper. Everybody loved him, came up, he was
Speaker 3: all right.
Speaker 1: Rogers went extent like everybody.
Speaker 4: Rodgers is post post post hype sleeper.
Speaker 1: But he's only twenty four. I mean, I'm not in
Speaker 1: a break and he's in Colorado.
Speaker 2: I mean, if he plays one hundred and forty games
Speaker 2: this year, there's no way he's not going to.
Speaker 1: Give you productivity. I mean, it's just it's just crazy.
Speaker 1: But I love to make about bowlm in that lineup too.
Speaker 4: Now.
Speaker 2: I think it's a very different feel for him coming
Speaker 2: into the twenty twenty two season, which really matters.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know, like I said, full season of
Speaker 3: the bat's post hype sleeper. These are these are a
Speaker 3: lot of Rogers is Like, let me look here at
Speaker 3: the guys that we've talked about, because I'm forgetting Rogers
Speaker 3: is probably Stevenson and Rodgers maybe the most expensive guys
Speaker 3: that we've talked about. Most of these players are like
Speaker 3: post hundred for the most point, like maybe post one
Speaker 3: seventy five. These are in the free range of players.
Speaker 3: Especially Boom is a guy that I've done plenty of
Speaker 3: drafts where he doesn't go, so you can get him
Speaker 3: as a corner infielder. Maybe you want to put him
Speaker 3: on the watch just watch out because like I said,
Speaker 3: this is a more feel hitter than he is a
Speaker 3: you know, struggling big power hitter who's not finding his way.
Speaker 3: Like him hitting two twenty doesn't really make sense unless
Speaker 3: he's gone as a prospect. Him hitting two seventy with
Speaker 3: a bunch of doubles and maybe lower on homers, that
Speaker 3: is a more plausible range. But those are good possibilities.
Speaker 3: Maybe high RBIs just watch out for Alec Bohm.
Speaker 2: All right, watch out for Gabrian Hayes. That's my third
Speaker 2: basement and my breakout guy. We often talk about the
Speaker 2: guys who show up in the camp in the best
Speaker 2: shape of their life. Well, Hayes actually in pretty good shape, Like,
Speaker 2: he looks pretty good, he looks like he is ready
Speaker 2: to have a healthy season.
Speaker 1: So hoping for the best there.
Speaker 2: It was kind of a disappointment because it kind of
Speaker 2: started off quick if we recall last April, and then
Speaker 2: he got hurt right away and it was just basically chasing, chasing.
Speaker 1: Waterfalls after that, Poor Brian Hayes. I love that.
Speaker 3: By the way, later that tweet they put out, I
Speaker 3: think it was like the Pirates or something, or I
Speaker 3: don't remember who did it.
Speaker 4: They did everything but say he's in the best shape
Speaker 4: of his life.
Speaker 3: They just they danced around the idea he was just
Speaker 3: jacked and he's out there and they're like, Brian Hayes
Speaker 3: physically looks amazing and they're all talented.
Speaker 4: Just say best shape of his life. Just say it.
Speaker 2: But I mean, when you're a career four hundred slugging
Speaker 2: percentage guy and you play a corner spot, you better
Speaker 2: be like Matt Chapman glove, you know, like that.
Speaker 1: You've got to be that level.
Speaker 2: So I think, you know, he realizes it, like I've
Speaker 2: got to hit for more power. So if you're gonna
Speaker 2: bulk up a little bit in the off season and
Speaker 2: come in there ready to go hit some more home runs,
Speaker 2: you can get up to that twenty mark. Once again,
Speaker 2: I think he's more of a corner guy than it
Speaker 2: is a starting third basement lest in a very deep lead.
Speaker 2: But when you have to start taking shots of guys
Speaker 2: because third base isn't great this year, you end up
Speaker 2: in that mix of the Ty France, Joha Mancatta, Gabrian Hayes, Right,
Speaker 2: Brian Hayes at won sixty nine. I think I'd rather
Speaker 2: have Cabrian Hayes at this point at the cheaper ADPs
Speaker 2: eighteenth third basement off the board, and then you go
Speaker 2: after a little bit too what's.
Speaker 4: That and Hayes can run a little bit too exactly?
Speaker 3: He might be a sneaky source of Yeah, like how
Speaker 3: many guys at third base? Are you really going to
Speaker 3: get significant soolen bases for? Obviously Jose Ramirez I think
Speaker 3: really late a guy like John VR might be kind
Speaker 3: of sneaky now that he's with the Cubs and he.
Speaker 4: Qualifies a third.
Speaker 3: But Hayes is one of those guys where you know,
Speaker 3: it's interesting what you said too. You've seen a lot
Speaker 3: of teams do this opposite where you have these power guys,
Speaker 3: they want to move to these other positions that aren't
Speaker 3: necessarily prime, like Andrew Vaughn when I told you he
Speaker 3: did some workout at second and stuff like that where.
Speaker 1: You moved to the last year.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they don't necessarily They want power everywhere. So Hayes
Speaker 3: has obviously got to embrace that, and he is. He's
Speaker 3: a pure raw power guy. He just has not tapped
Speaker 3: into it.
Speaker 4: But this is a young kid.
Speaker 3: He gives the contact kid in the miners who has
Speaker 3: not tapped into it.
Speaker 2: If he plays a full season and he gives me
Speaker 2: like eighteen home runs and eight stolen bases or something
Speaker 2: like that and hits two sixty five or two seventy,
Speaker 2: I'll take that.
Speaker 1: I'll take that the eighty. I think that's a decent
Speaker 1: return on event.
Speaker 4: Let me ask you something.
Speaker 2: There's a chance you could even have more if how
Speaker 2: he is indeed tapping into that power ceiling.
Speaker 1: What's the question?
Speaker 3: Have you looked at any of the projections on him.
Speaker 4: That we're looking at him?
Speaker 1: That that was kind of close to that. What does
Speaker 1: ATC have? Man?
Speaker 4: Why? Well, I wanted to ask you.
Speaker 3: I wanted you to take a guess at projection, like
Speaker 3: pick a system and then you guess.
Speaker 1: I mean, let's do let's do Ariel because he's our Franks.
Speaker 4: Okay, well, we'll do Aril.
Speaker 2: I would think it would be fifteen home runs or
Speaker 2: fourteen home runs something like that.
Speaker 1: Probably it might right, you.
Speaker 4: Absolutely nailed it.
Speaker 3: Fifteen Homersteen runs six in one hundred and forty one games.
Speaker 1: Two sixty five batting average, give or take.
Speaker 4: I mean, are you looking at it?
Speaker 1: Two second?
Speaker 4: Now?
Speaker 2: Look?
Speaker 4: Two seconds is two sixty five? All right, Now, let's
Speaker 4: do runs.
Speaker 1: That's the tricky one of the seventy two.
Speaker 3: Oh my god, I was about to say, what numbers
Speaker 3: for the power of all tonight? Uh, seventy seven, seventy
Speaker 3: sixty Why I just ruined it?
Speaker 4: Sixty three RBA.
Speaker 3: How many stolen bases do you think ATC hasn't projected.
Speaker 2: At I'm gonna stick with my eight because that was
Speaker 2: my number.
Speaker 1: Anyway, I think that's a good twelve. Okay, that great.
Speaker 3: So fifteen and twelve with the two sixty five batting average,
Speaker 3: that's not really build I don't think ATC, in order
Speaker 3: to any projection systems really build in the upside of
Speaker 3: these guys like finding their way in their sophomore years.
Speaker 3: So I just want to say, a projection system which
Speaker 3: has got to model the median line, and this is
Speaker 3: an aggregate system, has ATC is the highest in stolen
Speaker 3: bases and highest in homers this So think that's the middle.
Speaker 3: So if you believe that kee Brian Hayes is going
Speaker 3: to make the proper adjustments this year, you believe in
Speaker 3: him as an athlete. Could you be twenty fifteen on
Speaker 3: a third baseman hitting two seventy five and go seventy
Speaker 3: five to seventy five. Guess what if you do that's
Speaker 3: top one hundred value and you're getting them near the
Speaker 3: two hundreds. It's risky because you're betting on a rookie
Speaker 3: or you know, a sophomore young player. But the idea
Speaker 3: of the breakouts is this, and this is why he's
Speaker 3: like a fun corner infielder to get.
Speaker 1: Yeah, still very cheap.
Speaker 2: That's we're all about now, shortstop. I mean, this is
Speaker 2: probably the easiest one for both of us. I'm sure
Speaker 2: you had I'm sure you knew exactly who you were
Speaker 2: going to say, and I knew exactly who I was
Speaker 2: gonna say.
Speaker 1: So no spoilers. If you listened to the show, you
Speaker 1: know who Welsh is, So go ahead talk about Amed Rosario.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Ahmedrosario.
Speaker 3: I mean I went through I tried to find like
Speaker 3: other guys, but again, going with the breakouts, it's I
Speaker 3: don't know, there's rookies I think about, but that's not
Speaker 3: really the break up. I go with the mid Rosario.
Speaker 3: He kind of broke out last year. We did do
Speaker 3: the show where we were talking about, you know, who
Speaker 3: is the next Cedric Mullins, and I picked him what
Speaker 3: was it six most hits from July to September, power speed,
Speaker 3: combo hitting at the top of the lineup. He's really
Speaker 3: kind of found himself as a power hitter, which he
Speaker 3: was never in in the minors. I think fifteen to
Speaker 3: twenty is the mac. So I don't think he can
Speaker 3: truly be Cedric Mullins, but I believe he can steal
Speaker 3: more than fifteen stolen bases.
Speaker 4: Oh and I think he can hit.
Speaker 1: He's done. He's done it twice.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, and in twenty four and year's with the Mets.
Speaker 2: Speed's not the problem for Azario. The problem with Ario
Speaker 2: was always the glove and the range at shortstop. That
Speaker 2: to me, there was always a problem. And also I found,
Speaker 2: you know, watching him as much as I did over
Speaker 2: the years, he didn't hit good pitching, Like you know,
Speaker 2: he could go out there and the quality guys or
Speaker 2: the relievers he'd beat up on.
Speaker 1: But if he gave him any good pitching, he was toast.
Speaker 2: Now again, I didn't watch a lot of com at
Speaker 2: Rosario at bats last year on full disclosure. But if
Speaker 2: he can make that adjustment here, you know, a little
Speaker 2: later in his career, that's going to help him certainly
Speaker 2: kind of maybe reach that potential you're talking about.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and he's like a twenty to the twenty strikeout marker.
Speaker 3: He walked more this past year than he ever did before,
Speaker 3: and projections are not favorable. Even though you say, you know,
Speaker 3: he did steal twenty four bases in twenty eighteen. He's
Speaker 3: failed to get twenty any other year. But even ATC
Speaker 3: has him at fourteen stolen bases but almost a two
Speaker 3: to eighty batting average, hitting near the top of the lineup.
Speaker 3: It's not a great lineup, but again, this is going
Speaker 3: to be an aggressive team. I think twenty stolen bases
Speaker 3: is pretty easy in line. You could be in that
Speaker 3: fifteen homer marker. I know, I feel like I've mentioned
Speaker 3: multiple guys in this same place, but this is the
Speaker 3: marker that I have on him. I'm not afraid to
Speaker 3: go into battle with Josh Rojas and I'm me and
Speaker 3: Rosario on my team. Preferably middle and corner. But those
Speaker 3: are guys that are this cheap stolen base. They qualify
Speaker 3: multiple positions. And if Rosario does, let's say, push that twenty, like,
Speaker 3: let's see, he'll eeds to be I think a twenty
Speaker 3: stolen base guy. Even though projections at fourteen. I think
Speaker 3: if he pushes the twenty twenty, you're talking about Rosario
Speaker 3: maybe being inside the top fifty this coming year. So
Speaker 3: he's just a guy that I want to jump all over,
Speaker 3: get all the stuff and even the runs. You know,
Speaker 3: if we can push eighty plus runs, he's a pretty
Speaker 3: easy breakout candidate.
Speaker 2: I think you know what I was just thinking, Welsh,
Speaker 2: all those people who spend all those hours and weeks
Speaker 2: and months working these projection systems. All you need is
Speaker 2: Joe p's a pee his brain. Really, I could just
Speaker 2: spout out the numbers. Apparently it's the same stuff.
Speaker 3: Apparently, Nic I mean, if you had gotten one more,
Speaker 3: I'm telling you had gotten one more, I say, all right,
Speaker 3: I'll call you in twenty minutes.
Speaker 4: We're gonna go over.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go to the store, we're gonna play some
Speaker 3: Arizona power Ball, and you're gonna pick my numbers for me.
Speaker 2: But I mean, you know, projection systems are all trying
Speaker 2: to give you the best I think, the most accurate,
Speaker 2: best ish case scenario, and they're all based in something
Speaker 2: that the guy has just done previously for the most part,
Speaker 2: with some sort of mild rehash. So the mild the
Speaker 2: mild look ahead after the rehash is a little bit
Speaker 2: of growth. So if you just kind of take what
Speaker 2: you saw last year and put a little growth, that's
Speaker 2: kind of what it it would be.
Speaker 1: You know, it's tough.
Speaker 3: It's tough because, like you can predict some things. Whatever
Speaker 3: a picture's x FIP was the year before, that will
Speaker 3: be the projected era most likely for a picture.
Speaker 4: If you look over.
Speaker 3: Three years, and if you can mentally do math quick
Speaker 3: and you look over a three year marker, you can
Speaker 3: probably find the averages pretty quick.
Speaker 4: If you know it's thirty.
Speaker 3: And twenty and twenty five, guess you're probably going to
Speaker 3: have twenty five.
Speaker 4: Well, that's what a lot of projection systems go off.
Speaker 4: I mean, you're probably gonna find the average twenty five.
Speaker 2: Because your coverage gives you a really strong sample size
Speaker 2: of the identity of a player over a period of time.
Speaker 3: Where they're differing themselves a little bit. Is like CARDI
Speaker 3: with the bat X is there's lot more ballpark factors
Speaker 3: that are being involved in it, which I think open
Speaker 3: it up. And ATC specifically is really unique because it's
Speaker 3: an aggregate of everything. So if you don't like I
Speaker 3: think there's some people that love Steamer, there's some that
Speaker 3: you know, love the bat or the bat X and
Speaker 3: if you don't want to play that game, ATC just
Speaker 3: gets them all and finds you a good media and
Speaker 3: value and that's why, you know, to Ariol's credit, Ariol
Speaker 3: ariols ATC is three time Fantasy Pro most Accurate projection system.
Speaker 1: And not only that, I was gonna say, now, I
Speaker 1: was gonna pop them.
Speaker 2: Not only did you win last year at the most accurate,
Speaker 2: but guess who was number two the Fantasy Pro system?
Speaker 1: How about them appen? Oh that's right, not bad.
Speaker 4: I didn't know that. I didn't know that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right, number two.
Speaker 4: You know, let's go.
Speaker 2: You can't give yourself awards though, and he's got to
Speaker 2: slap yourself in the face.
Speaker 3: I mean you can you could also like, yeah, we
Speaker 3: could also put us in the you know, running to
Speaker 3: win those autograph jerseys too. I mean, we can do
Speaker 3: things if you want.
Speaker 2: I mean, technically I could unsubscribe to the channel and
Speaker 2: resubscribe and try to win the Austin Riley jersey, but
Speaker 2: you know that seems like a lot of work at
Speaker 2: this point for me. I want to talk to you
Speaker 2: about Willie Adams. That's my sh shortstop of choice.
Speaker 1: Last year.
Speaker 2: You know, he's been complaining for years about the batter's
Speaker 2: eye in Tropicana Field, and it showed. He had a
Speaker 2: buck ninety seven over forty games last year there.
Speaker 1: He was just dreadful. He was terrible.
Speaker 2: They deal him to Milwaukee, and what a difference the
Speaker 2: move makes. He then goes on over the last ninety
Speaker 2: nine games of the season to hit two eighty five
Speaker 2: with a three sixty six OBP and a five to
Speaker 2: twenty one slugging and eight eighty six ops. Just getting
Speaker 2: the heck out of Tampa is all he needed. He
Speaker 2: hit twenty bombs there, so twenty five on the year,
Speaker 2: but twenty of them in those ninety nine games for Milwaukee,
Speaker 2: and I just think this is a guy that's got
Speaker 2: a whole new lease on life.
Speaker 1: I also like the fact that they've got had a
Speaker 1: renfro there.
Speaker 2: I also like the fact that you know, if you
Speaker 2: do believe that you can get Christian Yellish to bounce
Speaker 2: back in this lineup, this lineup might be better than
Speaker 2: people realize. If Yelwich bounces back, he is kind of
Speaker 2: the lynchpin for me. I wish they had done maybe
Speaker 2: one more thing to give them a little bit more
Speaker 2: of a cushion.
Speaker 1: But William Doms.
Speaker 2: To me is that guy that I'm all over this year.
Speaker 2: I love draft in him at shortstop. I think he
Speaker 2: can give you power. I think when you everybody talked
Speaker 2: about deep shorts up it's so deep.
Speaker 1: It's so deep it is, but you.
Speaker 2: Could also wait on it and if you choose to,
Speaker 2: then you can get him at one thirty six overall,
Speaker 2: and he's the twenty shorts up off the board.
Speaker 3: He's one of those guys. He kills me too. Man,
Speaker 3: He's one of those guys I was so big on
Speaker 3: when he was a Ray and he never clicked, and
Speaker 3: then I just.
Speaker 2: Want playing in the minor leagues, and you're like, this
Speaker 2: guy's got and let him go.
Speaker 1: Got it.
Speaker 2: He's got that thing, but he just couldn't see the baseball.
Speaker 2: I mean literally, you look at the splits and it's there.
Speaker 2: It's just so obviously how bad he was in that ballpark.
Speaker 2: And I think when you have any major league talent,
Speaker 2: I think it's are so ware on them mentally where
Speaker 2: it's like, oh, why can't I do this? And then
Speaker 2: they press and then they have the pressure of who's
Speaker 2: the next kid coming behind me?
Speaker 1: Oh, it's this Wander Franco guy. He's unbelievable.
Speaker 4: And well that's also for him.
Speaker 2: Just need the change of salary. And people say, well,
Speaker 2: he broke out already. Ninety nine games isn't enough for me.
Speaker 2: I want a full season breakout. That's what I'm looking
Speaker 2: for here. We're really I think he can go from
Speaker 2: twenty wels. Honestly, I think he could be a thirty
Speaker 2: home run guy, and that to me is breakout.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And that's why you know they talk about change
Speaker 3: the scenery. Sometimes it is necessary. It just kills me.
Speaker 3: He's one of those guys we all have it where
Speaker 3: you're in, you're in, you're in, then it doesn't work,
Speaker 3: then it doesn't work again. Like I think like two
Speaker 3: year three, three years ago, I had him as like
Speaker 3: a breakout and then it was like, all right, we're
Speaker 3: just not happening, and the change of scenery was everything
Speaker 3: for him. And people also forget Willie Damas was the
Speaker 3: core piece in the David Price trade. The David Price
Speaker 3: trade between the Rays and the Detroit Tigers. It was
Speaker 3: like four guys. Everyone got up in arms about it.
Speaker 3: But Adama's at that time was like low a and
Speaker 3: he was the lynchpin to that move. So he's a
Speaker 3: rock star and he's one of those reasons why you
Speaker 3: can wait.
Speaker 1: Some of those guys you love.
Speaker 2: And they never figured out who's that angel's third base?
Speaker 2: But was that Brandon Wood?
Speaker 4: Was that Dallas McPherson, Brandon Wood? Both of them? Brewood
Speaker 4: was the big one. Yeah uh.
Speaker 2: And Gordon Beckham remember him too. It was another guy
Speaker 2: white socks, trying to wait for him to break out
Speaker 2: and it just never happened. Some guys never happens. It
Speaker 2: happened last year. You saw the beginning of it, and
Speaker 2: now it's for the full season version.
Speaker 3: All right, remember, let's do it, hold on, Let's do
Speaker 3: a whole show one time where we just go remember that,
Speaker 3: like remember dustin act.
Speaker 2: Member berries are going to be tangents like this all
Speaker 2: the time, it will do a random player of the day.
Speaker 1: Maybe we could do that.
Speaker 4: Remember, yeah, it'll just be called yeah.
Speaker 1: Yeah, members only, that's what we got.
Speaker 4: I like that. I like it, all right, sorry, all right?
Speaker 1: It was the outfielder. Oh I made your team here
Speaker 1: for the all breakout list.
Speaker 3: Well, you went with the most obvious one that I
Speaker 3: agree with, So I'm going with the secondary one.
Speaker 4: And I'm not even so sure.
Speaker 3: I don't I don't know how people feel about him,
Speaker 3: and I'm not sure I would go like out on
Speaker 3: a huge limb for it. But it's the same theme,
Speaker 3: and I'm picking Jared Kelnick. And here's one of those
Speaker 3: reasons as well. Let's go back to what we were
Speaker 3: talking about a little bit earlier in the show, and
Speaker 3: I was mentioning with Joey Bart. Kelnick is in the
Speaker 3: exact same situation where, uniquely this offseason, he is in
Speaker 3: a position where he has this back run of major
Speaker 3: like real major league you know experience. He has failing,
Speaker 3: like really big failing under his back, and he has
Speaker 3: a little bit of a run on the back end
Speaker 3: of the year where he started to connect a little bit.
Speaker 3: So then come this spring training, what's happening he is
Speaker 3: being treated as the guy with the job. He hasn't
Speaker 3: always had that, you know, send him down to the miners.
Speaker 3: He's working. I've been over to the marine facility four
Speaker 3: or five times. Every time. He is attached at the
Speaker 3: hip with usually Mitch Haniger and now Jesse Winker. I
Speaker 3: see those guys working every single day. He's one of
Speaker 3: the last guys out on the field. It's bp heading practice.
Speaker 3: He looks locked in, you know. I think for a
Speaker 3: guy like Jared Kilnick, who has always succeeded, he's always
Speaker 3: kind of been the guy. He was one of the
Speaker 3: most prolific contact hitters coming out of high school.
Speaker 4: He was a face of a trade.
Speaker 3: He was a face of an organization, him and Julio
Speaker 3: where you know, this team didn't have superstars and weren't winners.
Speaker 4: That's a lot of pressure. I don't mean to keep
Speaker 4: doing this.
Speaker 3: But another guy I talked to in nineteen in the
Speaker 3: foll League, he told me his goal in twenty twenty
Speaker 3: was to make the major leagues. And he also he
Speaker 3: thinks of stats like he had a goal of being
Speaker 3: a twenty twenty guy in that twenty nineteen season, and
Speaker 3: he said that was a goal that I hit, and
Speaker 3: he wants to hit the majors, So you know he's
Speaker 3: re established new goals. But he has the one thing,
Speaker 3: like I said, I don't think he really had under
Speaker 3: him was failing. And you know, there's a lot of
Speaker 3: really really good hitters there that he gets to bounce
Speaker 3: off of. Now you've got obviously Mitch in the breakoup,
Speaker 3: but you guys got you got like Jesse Winker, I
Speaker 3: think is a really important one for him to kind
Speaker 3: of be able to rub off on. And he's being
Speaker 3: given the opportunity to have that job, and I think
Speaker 3: it's all prime stuff. We're taking very short sample sizes
Speaker 3: on why we don't like Jared Kelnick, why he doesn't
Speaker 3: work Indy of the day. He is a significant five
Speaker 3: tool player, he has been in the minors and it
Speaker 3: just might be taking a little bit of time here.
Speaker 3: So I'm going to take my all breakout Jared Kelnick.
Speaker 1: Any concern that Rodriguez just blows.
Speaker 3: Right by him, I think that can happen, but I
Speaker 3: don't think it's at the expense of his job.
Speaker 4: Kyle lewis prepared actually hurt.
Speaker 3: He's hurt again. He's not doing anything on the camps.
Speaker 3: He's just like kind of like walking around and he's
Speaker 3: not out there. Taylor Trammel, I think they see him
Speaker 3: as a four out fourth outfielder.
Speaker 4: I could be incorrect about that.
Speaker 3: Julio is starting almost every day and he's starting in center,
Speaker 3: but I don't think that's Kelnick's job. I think it
Speaker 3: is Winker and left, kel Nick and right, and Julio
Speaker 3: in center. And you got Mitch Hannager at diggate. So
Speaker 3: what's the problem here. Taylor Tremil is the only other guy,
Speaker 3: and Kyle Lewis who is always hurt.
Speaker 4: In missing time that I think.
Speaker 3: I think Julio Rodriguez, I've thought this for a long time,
Speaker 3: is the better dynasty option, even when Kelnick was.
Speaker 1: Close Shrew, Oh no, you always were that, You always
Speaker 1: right three years.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And Julio is the bigger personality, he's the bigger star.
Speaker 3: He's going to get more attention, which could be good
Speaker 3: or bad for Jared Kelnick. But if Kelnick focuses on
Speaker 3: the game, he's not going to be overpassed for Julio
Speaker 3: Rodriguez unless he starts hitting a buck fifteen again.
Speaker 4: I'll make the bet that it's going to turn and
Speaker 4: if it does.
Speaker 3: Watch out because this could he could be Robert, Like
Speaker 3: that's the type of guy that he is.
Speaker 2: Her.
Speaker 4: Yeah, he hits.
Speaker 3: He hits, a big, big homers, huge barrel contact type
Speaker 3: of guy. But he completely fell apart the last two years.
Speaker 3: So I will go with Jared Kellent. I think Kelln
Speaker 3: is like like twenty two years old, still twenty three
Speaker 3: years old.
Speaker 1: He's still very young. He's still very young.
Speaker 2: You were always a Julio guy over Keller Nick and
Speaker 2: all those arguments back in the day.
Speaker 3: So twenty two, thank you, just a.
Speaker 4: Toy maybe toy boy. He could be our he could
Speaker 4: be our child. We could be like kind of like
Speaker 4: young parents.
Speaker 1: That's more of an indictment on us.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but now now we're young parents, and now we're
Speaker 2: out there enjoying life. See that's the thing if you
Speaker 2: are a young parent, like my buddy, he had his
Speaker 2: kids when he was on the younger side, and now
Speaker 2: they're in college or you know, just getting to college,
Speaker 2: and now he's like out of this free time and
Speaker 2: he's still like young enough to enjoy it.
Speaker 3: So we're like a little bit older, Like I had
Speaker 3: my first kid at like twenty eight or something.
Speaker 4: Like or no, obviously he was like twenty nine or something.
Speaker 1: Yeah, eh, what again. Anyway, Joe Adell's still let's talk
Speaker 1: about let's.
Speaker 2: Talk about him. He is just twenty two years old,
Speaker 2: so to be twenty three. I know last year was
Speaker 2: not great for jo Adell at the major league level.
Speaker 2: It was kind of a disappointment. But the minor league
Speaker 2: track record is there.
Speaker 1: I believe in it.
Speaker 2: An eight ninety three career OPS over two hundred and
Speaker 2: ninety seven games, a career two ninety six hitter in
Speaker 2: the minor leagues. He's got power, he's got speed. He's
Speaker 2: crushing the ball.
Speaker 4: On a spring under him right now.
Speaker 2: Three home runs already, three steals, hitting two seventy three.
Speaker 2: The ops is ten ninety three right now for him.
Speaker 2: So look, jo Adell, it's all about playing time. And
Speaker 2: I know marsh is a nice player too, so it's
Speaker 2: whether or not he can crack over the three.
Speaker 1: Hundred at that plateau.
Speaker 2: If he does, I think he's gonna have a breakout season,
Speaker 2: and I think he's gonna force their hand. I really
Speaker 2: do Welsh, I mean, Justin Upton's old and hurt all
Speaker 2: the time, just like us, So I think that you're
Speaker 2: gonna see jo Adell get an opportunity, and if he
Speaker 2: plays the way he's playing right now and carries this over,
Speaker 2: there's a good chance that he does go over that
Speaker 2: three hundred and or three hundred three fifty plate appearances.
Speaker 2: And when you get that in the app bats area,
Speaker 2: then this guy's the limit.
Speaker 1: Then he could really have a huge breakout.
Speaker 2: But I think, yeah, this people just get too sour
Speaker 2: too fast on guys with talent. It's just it's crazy.
Speaker 2: Not everybody's Wander Franco or Juan Soto.
Speaker 4: This is the exact same celnic thing.
Speaker 3: And I hate to I don't want to be like, oh,
Speaker 3: listen to me, and I've been, but Jodell is somebody
Speaker 3: for about two years, even through all the struggles, I said,
Speaker 3: I'm just not done with Jodell.
Speaker 1: I'm not.
Speaker 4: He is a freak athlete.
Speaker 3: He really is a big problem. He had those when
Speaker 3: he came up. Nobody looked more fooled by any pitching
Speaker 3: than him. And you realize, like, oh, man, this is
Speaker 3: a freak athlete who was taking advantage of maybe not
Speaker 3: advanced pitching that he was going through the minor league
Speaker 3: for whatever reason.
Speaker 4: It was well That's how I.
Speaker 1: Talked about Buxton.
Speaker 2: He was always a much better athlete than a baseball player,
Speaker 2: and he had to kind of get that over time.
Speaker 2: He was just he was a freakishly good athlete, and
Speaker 2: then over time he had to kind of become a
Speaker 2: baseball player. There's been plenty of guys that have had
Speaker 2: success and then some guys that never happened.
Speaker 3: For But it doesn't really smart too. He's like a
Speaker 3: really he's like really in tune to like who he
Speaker 3: is and he was. This is one more anecdotal thing.
Speaker 3: So this is like name droppy all day long. But yes,
Speaker 3: I did interview Jodell as well on prospect.
Speaker 1: We just got to get like a think like a
Speaker 1: broom to Welsh interviewed.
Speaker 4: But see, here's the problem.
Speaker 3: Though I've been doing this for quite a while, we're
Speaker 3: now in the place where I've gotten my hands on
Speaker 3: so many minor leaguers that all the major leaguers arazing.
Speaker 3: But now we're at the point where I've gotten through
Speaker 3: multiple years that all these guys are major leaguers. So
Speaker 3: I have all this reference point. It's just gonna happen.
Speaker 3: But Adele was the one guy everybody ever everybody always.
Speaker 4: Tiptoes around answers. You know.
Speaker 3: Oh you know, I've asked like, what type of hitter
Speaker 3: are you?
Speaker 4: And how do you change as a hitter? Blah blah blah.
Speaker 3: All the guys that kind of give that same answer
Speaker 3: be like, well, you know, kind of a gap to
Speaker 3: gap hitter, and I'm not really trying to hit for power.
Speaker 3: It's like a cookie. Jodelle is the only guy that
Speaker 3: didn't give me that. He's just like, no, I know
Speaker 3: when to turn on a ball. I'm absolutely trying to
Speaker 3: hit a home And that's probably.
Speaker 4: A little bit of his mistake, by the way, maybe.
Speaker 3: But he was the only one that was really honest
Speaker 3: about how he would approach different at bats and how
Speaker 3: he could hit for power. I'm definitely into it. The
Speaker 3: spring looks like a big connection. He had a little
Speaker 3: bit of a thing with some people that I knew
Speaker 3: about that feared he couldn't hit anything above like ninety
Speaker 3: three up in the zone because he was so looking
Speaker 3: for offspeed trying to be able to adjust off speed
Speaker 3: breaking stuff that he was beaten like crazy. And that
Speaker 3: doesn't seem to be the case now. But let me
Speaker 3: ask you this. Two things Jodell. Let's play the Jodell
Speaker 3: projection game again, and I got one more for you.
Speaker 3: Let's go to ATC. What do you think the Jodell
Speaker 3: production projectionsone.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna ask you first for how many at bats
Speaker 2: is he getting?
Speaker 4: Okay, you got it, he is getting.
Speaker 1: That's the gauge. If I don't know the at bats,
Speaker 1: I can't even come close to these.
Speaker 3: One hundred and da da da. Let's see, this is
Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty two games, five hundred and twenty
Speaker 3: five played appearances. I'm sorry, five oh three played appearances,
Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty six games, twenty six on ATC.
Speaker 1: That's pretty good. So what do you want? You want
Speaker 1: stolen bases?
Speaker 4: Let's start with homers.
Speaker 2: Uh wow, I thought he's gonna give him eighteen.
Speaker 3: You are very very close nineteen homers. The bat X
Speaker 3: projects him at eighteen, so that's very good. How about runs?
Speaker 1: Uh sixty five, almost sixty?
Speaker 4: How many RBI?
Speaker 1: Okay, fifty seven?
Speaker 4: Oh see, you you.
Speaker 3: Would have the last one. Sixty five is the RBI
Speaker 3: batting average?
Speaker 1: Batting average? Give me a let's go to sixty. That's
Speaker 1: my overunder on it.
Speaker 4: Two forty one. Yeah, and stolen bases.
Speaker 3: Nine seven. So check this out. Let's come back to
Speaker 3: that same thing we did before. These are baseline. This
Speaker 3: is the baseline for a rookie the doesn't have a
Speaker 3: long projection struggle. Yeah Jodell nineteen or yeah nineteen homers
Speaker 3: seven at two forty essentially sixty and sixty if we
Speaker 3: round up, think of upside here. What if Jodell does
Speaker 3: hit two sixty twenty five homers, maybe he steals a
Speaker 3: little bit more. So here's the other thing I asked you,
Speaker 3: And this might be a really great, good poll question.
Speaker 2: I mean, everybody that twenty eight overall right now too,
Speaker 2: by the way, getting potentially there.
Speaker 3: So this might be a poll question. Is which breakout
Speaker 3: outfielder do you want? Jared Kalnick, who costs a top
Speaker 3: one twenty five overall pick or Joeydell, who costs a
Speaker 3: two twenty and well, which breakout any one?
Speaker 2: I'll we should definitely put that pole out. But I
Speaker 2: think the fallacy hero iguins the trap is that thinking
Speaker 2: that kalen Nick's at bats are completely locked in and
Speaker 2: Adele's aren't. That at the end of the day, it
Speaker 2: might be the inverse, like Adele might find his way
Speaker 2: into it and Calenick could play his way out of
Speaker 2: it potentially.
Speaker 4: Again, see that's a putt.
Speaker 3: I think they're both in so I would even be
Speaker 3: comfortable take away their possibility.
Speaker 1: And I think that's what you see the variance in
Speaker 1: their ADP so much.
Speaker 3: But maybe that's why also you take ADP out of
Speaker 3: the equation and you just go, who is the better
Speaker 3: breakout star for this year? Because here's the other caveat
Speaker 3: Adele is breaking out spring. He is a hot hot
Speaker 3: bat in spring, where kel Nick is really not done
Speaker 3: a whole lot. So I think he's out of people's
Speaker 3: minds right now. So who is the better breakout outfield
Speaker 3: star to you know, for you to take a shot on.
Speaker 3: Is it Jared Keelnick or is it jo Adell? I mean,
Speaker 3: what should you pick? You had Jodell on him.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Joydell.
Speaker 2: I want the cheaper one because I still know what
Speaker 2: the Kellenick Rangers guys that can really I know are
Speaker 2: going to contribute still on a certain level, Kellenick still
Speaker 2: a little bit of an unknown.
Speaker 3: I think I would pick Joeydell right now too, based
Speaker 3: on that exact same thing. Guys like alex fordual, I'm not.
Speaker 1: Getting ten by the spring.
Speaker 2: I've seen guys have great springs and then fall in
Speaker 2: their face a million times, so like I'm not.
Speaker 1: Being dupe by them.
Speaker 2: I'm buying into what I saw in the minor leagues
Speaker 2: and the track record and like you said, the athleticism
Speaker 2: that he can make adjustments. All right, let's go to
Speaker 2: the pitchers. Give me two pictures on the breakout team
Speaker 2: for the Welsh And why the.
Speaker 4: Two pictures I have got?
Speaker 3: Oh, mister Michael Kopek, who we have talked about a
Speaker 3: whole bunch who I didn't take it from you.
Speaker 4: I know, I was happy. I was happy about that.
Speaker 1: It's a crumb I gave you.
Speaker 3: Michael Kopek. You know he's always in fantastic shape. I
Speaker 3: just was over at White Sox camp where I got
Speaker 3: my nice little Lanceln picture and he was out there
Speaker 3: and he was interacting.
Speaker 4: Looks good.
Speaker 3: I mean physically, he just is so imposing. He's probably
Speaker 3: like Lucas Giolito is Jack, dude. I don't know if
Speaker 3: everybody has seen it, like when you see him in person,
Speaker 3: Oh my god, he is absolutely Jack, but the second
Speaker 3: most physically imposing picture out there is Kopek and the
Speaker 3: same thing as before. You know, he was with the
Speaker 3: major league team last year, but he was returning from
Speaker 3: Tommy John. He had these injuries and he was going
Speaker 3: in a relief role. This is a year for him
Speaker 3: to be working more with the starters, even though I
Speaker 3: have seen him with like Garrett Crochet and the relievers
Speaker 3: a little bit. I am hopeful that he has stretched out.
Speaker 3: He's such a big strikeout option. I love Michael Kopek
Speaker 3: as a big breakout. And the other one is Logan
Speaker 3: Gilbert with the Seattle Mariners. This is a year and anecdotally,
Speaker 3: I could just tell you I was just at Mariners
Speaker 3: camp and this guy is so intense and locked in.
Speaker 3: Two days ago, they had a spring he wasn't in
Speaker 3: the game, and they have the minor league games in
Speaker 3: the back. He was out at the minor league games
Speaker 3: watching and like scouting and going through. Was just at
Speaker 3: the Mariners camp. Everybody was gone, all the pitchers far
Speaker 3: gone for the day. He stayed out on the throwing
Speaker 3: mound working by himself for over an hour. All the
Speaker 3: hitters were gone, all the pitchers are gone, and he
Speaker 3: kept out there just working, working, working, throwing at They
Speaker 3: have these like mannequin looking hitters with a strike zone
Speaker 3: and then you know, a.
Speaker 4: Bucket for the ball.
Speaker 3: That guy was out there before I left, like I
Speaker 3: left and he was still out there. He's one of
Speaker 3: the hardest working guys major League. Remember when that's like
Speaker 3: what it was, That's exactly like what it is. It's
Speaker 3: a one hundred percent.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: And I don't know if it was the owner, if
Speaker 3: it was the lady owner, but he's a high command
Speaker 3: guy who I don't think he has the most insane
Speaker 3: stuff ever, but it's a really great organization as far
Speaker 3: as you know, teaching spin and being able to work
Speaker 3: through all that stuff that this is a good command pitcher.
Speaker 3: It's why I picked him last year. I thought is
Speaker 3: maybe the number one pitching prospect between him and Alec Manoa,
Speaker 3: and I think this is going to be a really
Speaker 3: important year when he's.
Speaker 4: Got a rotation spot.
Speaker 3: There's a fantastic team built around him with lots of runs.
Speaker 3: I hope the er keeps down, but I think he's
Speaker 3: going to walk into double digit wins this year just
Speaker 3: based on the team. And he's one of the hardest
Speaker 3: workers I've ever seen as far as a pitcher goes,
Speaker 3: so Logan Gilbert an easy breakout pitcher for me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love the Gilbert pick too.
Speaker 2: I Mean, everybody knew Kopek was going to get on
Speaker 2: this list, but the Gilbert one to me, and I
Speaker 2: was actually just looking a little bit more at him,
Speaker 2: and it all just makes sense, man Like to me,
Speaker 2: it's an easy one.
Speaker 1: As you're saying, sometimes these are just easy now for me.
Speaker 2: One of them is Jill Ryan, who of the Minnesota
Speaker 2: Twins that you'd heard Ariel Cone on this show a
Speaker 2: few weeks ago talk about him and what he thinks
Speaker 2: so far of his potential to really take that next
Speaker 2: step forward. You saw a little teas of it last
Speaker 2: year on the big league level, you know, just just
Speaker 2: to tease. Though five starts, twenty six innings pitch, he
Speaker 2: struck out thirty.
Speaker 1: Guys you walked only five.
Speaker 2: Look, and I think he's like the number ninety seven
Speaker 2: prospect or something like that overall. So for some reason
Speaker 2: he's not as higher up on the prospect list. But
Speaker 2: sometimes the guys that show up and dominate aren't always
Speaker 2: the guys one through ten.
Speaker 1: It's just always like that.
Speaker 4: It's right, he is Zach Gallon. By the way, is
Speaker 4: that like Joe Ryant?
Speaker 3: Like I remember Zach Gallin, he didn't have he didn't
Speaker 3: have like the best stuff on the planet, but he
Speaker 3: kept dominating and dominating through the miners.
Speaker 2: Joe thing dominating is the right word because in the
Speaker 2: minor leagues, two hundred and twenty six innings, three hundred
Speaker 2: and twenty six strike its three hundred and twenty six strikeouts.
Speaker 2: That's an enormous number and just fifty three walks.
Speaker 4: So to me, it's just like Gallit just yeah, I
Speaker 4: love that bit.
Speaker 1: It's a great comp. The Gallon comp is a great one.
Speaker 2: And the other one is a guy with Tampa who
Speaker 2: I don't think everybody even remembers about is Louis Patino, who,
Speaker 2: if he could just get healthy and on the mound,
Speaker 2: this was a prime pitching prospect just a couple of
Speaker 2: years ago with the Padres that everybody was once again
Speaker 2: pushing their grandmother out of the way to get a
Speaker 2: hold of. And now now it's about does he get
Speaker 2: a crack at the rotation?
Speaker 1: Is he healthy enough?
Speaker 2: Because this is another player that has vast potential, had
Speaker 2: good control of the minor leagues, has that strikeout upside
Speaker 2: that you're looking for ten point nine k per nine
Speaker 2: in the minor leagues over two hundred and sixty three innings.
Speaker 2: I mean, this dude was a couple of years ago
Speaker 2: people would ask you who was the best pitching prospect
Speaker 2: in baseball. Many people would say Patino, right, and the
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay Rays have a pretty good track record last
Speaker 2: time I checked a grooming young pitching. So I'm all
Speaker 2: in on Patino this year everywhere I can get him
Speaker 2: and then last and maybe least or maybe not. But
Speaker 2: let's get to the relief pitchers here, and once again
Speaker 2: we like to sometimes, you know, tweak.
Speaker 1: This a little bit.
Speaker 2: And I already have a mea culpa because I think
Speaker 2: a guy that I had on the bus list, you
Speaker 2: have on the breakout list now at this position, and
Speaker 2: I think I have in a week or so of
Speaker 2: watching him pitch twice, I think I've come around. I
Speaker 2: think I'm already going to take him off my list
Speaker 2: and agree with you.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you don't want to, like you know, you don't
Speaker 3: want to take what happens in spring for the be
Speaker 3: all end all. But when you see a picture, when
Speaker 3: you see a pitcher have their average velocity on their
Speaker 3: fastball rise by around three miles per hour. It's something
Speaker 3: that you have to take notice on, and that's his
Speaker 3: use lozarda I didn't go with like a closing option here,
Speaker 3: you know, finding the right next young closer, especially young
Speaker 3: guys that are going to break out and be closers.
Speaker 3: I mean at that point it's Camilla daval, which I
Speaker 3: think you could if there was a young young guy
Speaker 3: who could start closing, he would qualify at that and
Speaker 3: that might be.
Speaker 4: A good breakout. But the guys that qualify it relief pitchers.
Speaker 4: That's what you've got.
Speaker 3: That's what you've got, and he's just Lozardo who will
Speaker 3: qualify and over those spots a lot of injury issues.
Speaker 3: Looks like he's commanding his pitches better, his secondaries are
Speaker 3: setting up the fastball. His fastball is going even more
Speaker 3: and in his last couple starts, I think Chris Clegg
Speaker 3: from Vantrax had noted it, which is a great note
Speaker 3: that in his last start in spring, Lizardo threw his
Speaker 3: curveball more than his fastball. I think it was forty
Speaker 3: to thirty five, thirty six percent curveball in favor of fastball.
Speaker 4: Which that's a great mix.
Speaker 3: If you can command your curveball to that level and
Speaker 3: get enough swings and misses on it where you can
Speaker 3: overpower that than your fastball, then you're gonna have hitters
Speaker 3: guessing all the time. And then guess what, By the way,
Speaker 3: if you can throw off speed breaking stuff and then
Speaker 3: you can command a ninety eight mile an hour fastball
Speaker 3: that's coming off of that, you're gonna give hitters fits.
Speaker 4: All day long.
Speaker 3: I've also always loved Lozardo because he's a really smart,
Speaker 3: weird pitcher who does the different pitching mechanics. I don't
Speaker 3: know if he's scrapped it at all. I haven't really
Speaker 3: seen that yet, but he's one of those guys he
Speaker 3: would have his normal rotation and then maybe his next
Speaker 3: pitch he would like stop and he would sit for
Speaker 3: three seconds and then throw it like he literally would
Speaker 3: have like five or six different ways to pitch, and
Speaker 3: it keeps timing off. And I love that with pitchers,
Speaker 3: and I hope to see that more. With more confidence,
Speaker 3: better health, a better fastball, and command of secondaries that
Speaker 3: Lozardo's Yeah, He's just gonna be one of those beneficiaries
Speaker 3: for spring that I'm going to buy into and if
Speaker 3: I'm wrong, who cares?
Speaker 4: What's so cheap?
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's where I mean, he's so free right now?
Speaker 1: Where is he right now?
Speaker 4: I think it's post three hundred?
Speaker 1: I want to say, is it still after this week?
Speaker 1: That's my only.
Speaker 3: Well if you, yeah, if you, if you're able to
Speaker 3: like time search it over the last week, I'll bet
Speaker 3: you he's probably Jesus three.
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, to eighty nine right now in the consensus
Speaker 2: and Fantasy pros NFBC to eighty four.
Speaker 1: Uh so, all right, so let's gets in there, getting more,
Speaker 1: getting up.
Speaker 4: It's getting up there. It is getting drafted.
Speaker 2: He's no longer going to be a free you know,
Speaker 2: like on fan tracks though, he's even higher because you
Speaker 2: have a lot of dynasty leagues there. Yeah, so you
Speaker 2: know people are taking those shots early on that.
Speaker 1: All right.
Speaker 2: Last guy for me is Christian Xavier. You know that
Speaker 2: the relief picture that I'm very enamored of. Everybody you
Speaker 2: know knows he's probably gonna start in the bullpen.
Speaker 1: That's fine. It's April.
Speaker 4: Actually, I think they announced it. They announced it today,
Speaker 4: Dusty Baker did.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm not surprised, but If you think that
Speaker 2: Jacob Derizi and Lance mccollors and those guys are gonna
Speaker 2: all pitch, you're nuts. Like I've it's like a James
Speaker 2: Bond movie, Like you know, you know the formula, you
Speaker 2: know what's coming down the pike. I wish Lance mccullors
Speaker 2: was going to be healthy enough to pitch and make
Speaker 2: thirty starts this year. I'm just very skeptical it's going
Speaker 2: to be the case. And you're also telling me that
Speaker 2: no one else in this rotation is going to misstart.
Speaker 2: Christian Haavierre is gonna make starts. I think he's gonna
Speaker 2: make somewhere between fifteen and twenty this year. I really do,
Speaker 2: And I think that's really worth investing in, especially those
Speaker 2: mandatory RP spot leagues, because I think he's a guy
Speaker 2: that's got already gonna give you a ton of strikeouts
Speaker 2: to strikeout rates off the chart. I think another year
Speaker 2: in the big leagues once again, this guy is just electric.
Speaker 2: So I'm bidding on the talent because I think the
Speaker 2: opportunity is gonna present itself sooner than later. So let's
Speaker 2: recap the team here for the Welsh A catcher Joey
Speaker 2: Bart at first base, Spencer Toorklesen, then Josh Rojas at second,
Speaker 2: at third, Alec Bohm, almed Razzario which shortstop, the outfielder
Speaker 2: Jared Kalnick, then Michael Kopek, Logan Gilbert are the pitchers,
Speaker 2: with Jesus Lozardo and for me behind the dishes, Tyler
Speaker 2: Stevenson at first is Alex kiro loov Bran Rodgers at second,
Speaker 2: Caprian Hayes a third at shortstop, Willia Doms, Joe Adell
Speaker 2: and the outfield Joe Ryan and Louis Patino are the
Speaker 2: pictures with Christian Javier as the reliever.
Speaker 1: So pretty good list of names, Welsh. I feel like
Speaker 1: these guys.
Speaker 2: Are gonna have some really good seasons potentially ahead of
Speaker 2: us in twenty twenty two. And just as a reminder
Speaker 2: to everybody out there, I know you got drafts coming up.
Speaker 1: Get on that.
Speaker 2: Go to Fantasypros dot com slash kit and get our
Speaker 2: MLB draft kit.
Speaker 1: It's free.
Speaker 2: Dominate your draft right now with the projections, the salarycap values,
Speaker 2: the cheat sheets, everything you need and don't forget. We've
Speaker 2: also got great content at fantasypros dot com two because
Speaker 2: we got the consensus Sleeper list, which is coming out
Speaker 2: I think Tuesday, So depending on when you're listening to
Speaker 2: this that Consensus Sleepers Featured Pros article, it's gonna have
Speaker 2: a ton more names they're gonna be looking for in
Speaker 2: your draft.
Speaker 1: So get on that as well. And don't forget.
Speaker 2: About the giveaway right now Fantasypros dot com slash MLB
Speaker 2: contest when you subscribe to our YouTube channel, YouTube dot
Speaker 2: com slash Fantasy Pros MLB, that's the channel you need.
Speaker 2: Thanks for our friends at pre Steen Auction that Austin Riley,
Speaker 2: Jersey can be yours.
Speaker 1: And don't forget the Welsh and.
Speaker 2: Me Joey p five days a week talking baseball and
Speaker 2: leading off right here on our YouTube channel, live at
Speaker 2: noon so you have lunch, or you get to your
Speaker 2: office at nine o'clock if you're on the West coast
Speaker 2: or whatever.
Speaker 1: You get your home office, whatever people do nowadays, home office,
Speaker 1: we're gonna have. The ratings are gonna be through the
Speaker 1: roof this year.
Speaker 4: The roof.
Speaker 3: I mean, there's gonna be a little bit of a
Speaker 3: like Dan Harris miss that's gonna happen.
Speaker 4: But hopefully we can hopefully.
Speaker 1: Wait for the person on the chat there in the commons, say,
Speaker 1: who's this guy? Where's Dan Harris?
Speaker 4: Dan Harris gained a lot of weight.
Speaker 1: Dan Harris looks different. I don't understand what, but anyway,
Speaker 1: they will love fighting.
Speaker 4: He's a superhero now, so.
Speaker 1: Everybody loves you already. He's fighting. He is the Bruce
Speaker 1: Wayne to the Gotham city somewhere.
Speaker 3: And.
Speaker 4: Dan Harris is walking around.
Speaker 1: I'm vengeance, Like, all.
Speaker 4: Right, Dan, I thought you were Dan Harris like this,
Speaker 4: I'm vengeance.
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure it's more.
Speaker 3: Like, Oh, he'll make fun of his voice. I'm gonna
Speaker 3: tell him I just did that impression.
Speaker 2: You could tell me because he didn't make fun of
Speaker 2: me on the live stream. That's what friends do. You
Speaker 2: make fun of each other and then inevitably someone slaps somebody.
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us. But the story of the
Speaker 1: game goes on for the Welch, I'm Joey b We'll
Speaker 1: see you next time. Kids,