WEBVTT - Early Look at Week 5 NFL Lines (Ep. 111) 0:00:13.840 --> 0:00:16.520 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:18.439 to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:20.479 Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Hadi. It is 0:00:20.560 --> 0:00:24.400 time for an early look at the week five NFL lines, 0:00:24.440 --> 0:00:27.040 and to do that is our very own Joe Pizzapia. 0:00:27.080 --> 0:00:31.080 Find him on Twitter at Joe Pizzapia twenty No. Seventeen. 0:00:31.120 --> 0:00:32.720 Oh god, I thought you were so much older than 0:00:32.720 --> 0:00:32.919 you are. 0:00:33.240 --> 0:00:37.160 Regard that is not the right foot to start. 0:00:37.479 --> 0:00:40.080 We're recording this very early in the morning, Joe. I'm 0:00:40.159 --> 0:00:41.800 usually just waking up at this time. Okay, I know 0:00:41.840 --> 0:00:43.159 you wake up at like four am and you get 0:00:43.240 --> 0:00:45.559 ready for your day. Anyway, Joe, as you guys know, 0:00:45.600 --> 0:00:48.560 as a host of our college football Betting Bros. Podcast. 0:00:48.600 --> 0:00:51.400 He also have the Fantasy Pros Football podcast. He is 0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:55.040 the man. Joe, thanks for popping on the podcast this morning. 0:00:55.160 --> 0:00:56.880 I know we've just talked for about a half hour 0:00:56.920 --> 0:00:59.440 before we started recording, but publicly, how are you doing. 0:01:00.640 --> 0:01:03.320 I'm doing all right, my friend, I'm doing all right. 0:01:03.440 --> 0:01:05.720 I'm excited. I haven't been on this show. I was 0:01:05.760 --> 0:01:08.720 thinking to myself, what show do we produce here at 0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:11.880 Betting pros and Fantasy pros overall that I haven't done yet. 0:01:12.160 --> 0:01:14.640 I haven't done this one, so I'm trying to literally 0:01:15.200 --> 0:01:17.319 click them all off, check them all off the boxes, 0:01:17.360 --> 0:01:20.319 every get my Bingo card completely full so that I 0:01:20.319 --> 0:01:21.840 can go in and cash in at the end of 0:01:21.880 --> 0:01:24.160 the year. So this is another a show that I 0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:27.360 can check off now. And what's what's next. We have 0:01:27.440 --> 0:01:30.520 a we have a curling show, maybe maybe bob sledding 0:01:30.560 --> 0:01:32.600 coming up here. Winter Olympics right around the corner. 0:01:32.360 --> 0:01:33.960 So like that a lot of We've got a lot 0:01:34.000 --> 0:01:37.319 of Winter Olympics. But if your early performance is any indication, 0:01:37.400 --> 0:01:39.440 this will be your last time here on this show, 0:01:39.560 --> 0:01:40.920 all right, So you know what this is. We're going 0:01:40.959 --> 0:01:43.360 to take an early look at the week five lines. 0:01:43.360 --> 0:01:44.840 We're going to see if there's any value, see if 0:01:44.840 --> 0:01:47.480 there are any bets that we like. Before we get 0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:50.320 into that, some housekeeping first, our offer from bet MGM. 0:01:50.400 --> 0:01:52.640 New customers bet five dollars to win one hundred dollars 0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:56.200 if either team scores a touchdown again five dollars one 0:01:56.240 --> 0:01:59.680 hundred dollars in free bets. If either team scores a 0:01:59.720 --> 0:02:01.760 touchdo regardless of who you bet on, when you use 0:02:01.800 --> 0:02:04.200 the code Juice one hundred. 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That is it, and if you want 0:02:35.760 --> 0:02:38.000 three times the entry, just subscribe here to our YouTube 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:41.120 channel YouTube dot com slash betting Pros. We do a 0:02:41.120 --> 0:02:43.240 lot of good stuff. I do a props video every week. 0:02:43.360 --> 0:02:45.760 We do a Sunday morning live stream eleven am to 0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:48.560 twelve pm Eastern Time with me and Matt Pearl, or 0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:51.120 we go through each of the game's Matt videos, all 0:02:51.160 --> 0:02:53.280 his Daily Juice podcasts. There's a lot of good stuff there. Again, 0:02:53.320 --> 0:02:55.400 three times the entries. If you go to YouTube dot 0:02:55.440 --> 0:02:58.840 com slash betting pros Joey p Are you ready to 0:02:58.840 --> 0:03:00.400 take a look at the week five lines? 0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:02.560 I was born, ready, Harris, let's go. 0:03:02.880 --> 0:03:05.240 This is my nightmare. Okay, let's start here with the 0:03:05.280 --> 0:03:07.840 Thursday night game A little bit better than the Jaguars 0:03:07.880 --> 0:03:09.880 and the Bengals. Here, we've got the Rams and the 0:03:09.919 --> 0:03:13.440 Seahawks in Seattle. The Seahawks are getting two on our 0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:17.720 betting Pros consensus lines, and the total is fifty four 0:03:17.760 --> 0:03:19.760 and a half. These totals, man, this year, it's like, 0:03:19.840 --> 0:03:21.960 I like, how like fifty four fifty five are just 0:03:22.000 --> 0:03:24.120 like whatever? Now, I will say, Joe just before we 0:03:24.160 --> 0:03:26.120 get into it, it's two. I don't really think it 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:27.839 matters that much right now with the Rams lying two, 0:03:27.840 --> 0:03:30.919 But obviously those are the consensus lines. It's as high 0:03:30.960 --> 0:03:33.040 as two and a half here over at Fox Bett 0:03:33.040 --> 0:03:35.760 it's as low as one on my homebook DraftKings. So 0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:38.680 generally speaking, Rams laying two in Seattle with the total 0:03:38.720 --> 0:03:39.600 fifty four and a half. 0:03:39.760 --> 0:03:42.680 Reaction, well, first of all, they have to talk about 0:03:42.680 --> 0:03:45.839 where the Rams are and coming off that loss this week, 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:48.240 it's not surprising that they lost to the Cardinals. It's 0:03:48.240 --> 0:03:50.200 more surprising than they lost at home, I think if 0:03:50.200 --> 0:03:52.080 that makes any sense to you, and I think that, yeah, 0:03:53.080 --> 0:03:56.040 that means the inevitable letdown of after you face Tom 0:03:56.080 --> 0:03:57.800 Brady in a big game like that and you win 0:03:57.880 --> 0:04:00.200 that game, it's very emotional lot going through, and then 0:04:00.440 --> 0:04:02.800 you know, you have the Cardinals coming in. Theoretically you think, okay, 0:04:02.800 --> 0:04:04.680 we're gonna beat them. It's gonna be you know, it's 0:04:04.680 --> 0:04:06.760 gonna be fine. We're you know, just gonna roll over them. 0:04:06.800 --> 0:04:08.600 And then they beat you. It's a little bit of 0:04:08.600 --> 0:04:09.960 a wake up call. And I think it's in a 0:04:10.000 --> 0:04:11.760 way it's a good loss for that team, if that 0:04:11.800 --> 0:04:14.520 makes sense. It's a good loss. The Rams, I think, 0:04:14.520 --> 0:04:17.479 are the most complete team in the NFL. That being said, 0:04:17.800 --> 0:04:20.359 this is another Indivision matchup here where they've got, you know, 0:04:20.360 --> 0:04:22.760 they take on Tom Brady one week, right and probably 0:04:22.760 --> 0:04:26.760 the rain defending champs and probably the favorites to repeat. 0:04:26.960 --> 0:04:30.640 Then you've got successive weeks two Indivision opponents here and 0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:32.000 now you've got to go on the road to Seattle. 0:04:32.000 --> 0:04:33.559 See how it's not nearly as tough as a place. 0:04:33.640 --> 0:04:34.960 The one thing that I do like, here is the 0:04:35.000 --> 0:04:37.600 total and it's the over on the total of fifty 0:04:37.600 --> 0:04:39.520 four and a half, which I know it's a high number, 0:04:39.520 --> 0:04:41.880 but we're seeing an explosion of offense in the league 0:04:41.920 --> 0:04:44.320 this year. We're on pace to shatter all the records already, 0:04:44.640 --> 0:04:46.560 and it's just it's a combination of just the rules, 0:04:46.600 --> 0:04:48.640 it's a combination of the speed of the players. Also 0:04:48.880 --> 0:04:50.920 just the openness of the game and where we're at 0:04:50.960 --> 0:04:53.440 right now, and the quarterback play is exceptional for the 0:04:53.440 --> 0:04:55.600 most part. There's been some really great quarterback play this 0:04:55.680 --> 0:04:59.039 year in the league. For me, I would stay away 0:04:59.080 --> 0:05:00.680 from the line here, I would go to the over 0:05:00.760 --> 0:05:03.000 under and I would hammer the over there because in 0:05:03.000 --> 0:05:05.560 a short week two it's really tough for defenses typically 0:05:05.600 --> 0:05:08.640 to prepare very well, even though they know these teams 0:05:08.680 --> 0:05:11.240 and all that the Rams have. Here is also a 0:05:11.360 --> 0:05:13.479 unique position where they have multiple guys to throw the 0:05:13.480 --> 0:05:15.840 ball to, so it's not just a one dimensional team 0:05:15.839 --> 0:05:18.200 where you could say, oh, you know, it's very easy, 0:05:18.200 --> 0:05:20.280 we could just target one of these guys shut them down. Now, 0:05:20.279 --> 0:05:22.080 it's gonna be a little harder than that. So I 0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:24.440 think that wide openness of the Rams passing game and 0:05:24.480 --> 0:05:26.560 on top of that which you have with the Seattle Seahawks, 0:05:26.560 --> 0:05:29.479 which is, you know, a good team and Russell Wilson 0:05:29.720 --> 0:05:32.279 kind of carrying them a little bit right now at home. 0:05:32.360 --> 0:05:34.360 This is a big matchup the overs where I go 0:05:34.800 --> 0:05:36.440 right now in terms of who's gonna win, this is 0:05:36.520 --> 0:05:37.919 kind of a toss up for me. If anything, I 0:05:37.960 --> 0:05:40.000 might take the money line, which is plus one eighteen 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:41.880 right now on the Seahawks to win straight up. I 0:05:41.880 --> 0:05:44.240 think that's a little bit better in terms of your 0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:45.120 returnal investment. 0:05:45.640 --> 0:05:49.000 Yeah, I think it's probably. I mean, I might have 0:05:49.040 --> 0:05:51.160 a little action on this game because it's Thursday night football, 0:05:51.160 --> 0:05:53.400 and you probably should just one way or another, right 0:05:53.560 --> 0:05:56.640 but I'll probably like you certainly on the side stay 0:05:56.720 --> 0:05:59.560 away from it. I don't have a good sense of it. Also, 0:05:59.600 --> 0:06:01.360 I don't think matters if you bet it now or later, 0:06:01.400 --> 0:06:02.919 Like it's not going to climb to three. There's not 0:06:02.920 --> 0:06:05.400 gonna This is a very evenly matched game in Seattle 0:06:05.400 --> 0:06:08.159 again on the short week, which again it's very difficult 0:06:08.240 --> 0:06:10.280 for the Rams, who were just basically getting their butts 0:06:10.360 --> 0:06:13.160 kicked with their defense on the field a ton against Arizona. 0:06:13.240 --> 0:06:15.320 I think they're probably a little tired. It's tougher for 0:06:15.360 --> 0:06:18.000 defenses to bounce back on the short week here, so 0:06:18.120 --> 0:06:20.600 it's probably something where i'd stay away. I guess i'd 0:06:20.640 --> 0:06:23.440 lean over, But man, I am tired. I am tired 0:06:23.480 --> 0:06:25.920 of these totals. Like at the fifty five and again 0:06:26.040 --> 0:06:29.240 we saw Joe right, we had primetime overs. We're just 0:06:29.400 --> 0:06:32.960 non stop hitting, And then this week it was all 0:06:33.120 --> 0:06:36.200 of the primetime games came under their totals. So I 0:06:36.240 --> 0:06:38.599 wonder whether or not the books are just basically still 0:06:38.640 --> 0:06:40.600 they're juicing them up so high right now. 0:06:40.839 --> 0:06:42.960 Well, you know, in one of those, you know, the 0:06:43.279 --> 0:06:45.839 torrential downpour of rain and suble and really changed the 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:47.840 dynamic of that total. You know, it's all that whether 0:06:47.880 --> 0:06:50.600 they should have hammered the under there just as tougher. 0:06:50.480 --> 0:06:53.000 I agree, But I also think really it might have 0:06:53.040 --> 0:06:55.480 been more of Gronkowski out because I think like that 0:06:55.680 --> 0:06:58.600 changed the dynamic of their blocking just generally. I mean, 0:06:58.640 --> 0:06:59.920 Brady was getting a little bit of rasped. 0:07:00.279 --> 0:07:03.839 It's fair Fronk being out to a certain extent. That also, 0:07:03.920 --> 0:07:06.039 it's all the game plan that Belichick wanted to play, 0:07:06.080 --> 0:07:08.839 which is slug it out, bring him down to your level, 0:07:08.920 --> 0:07:10.280 kind of stuff, and that's what he does with all 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:12.880 the great quarterbacks, you know, in those kind of games 0:07:12.920 --> 0:07:15.120 where every play is a high powered offense. You know, 0:07:15.400 --> 0:07:17.160 if you go back to the AFC Championship game a 0:07:17.200 --> 0:07:19.320 couple of years ago, right with Mahomes, where they shut 0:07:19.400 --> 0:07:22.080 him out, they brought it down to a grinding kind 0:07:22.080 --> 0:07:23.840 of game. Now they only got away with it for 0:07:24.000 --> 0:07:26.000 half a football. They got away with it for an 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:28.400 entire game this past week with Brady in the Bucks. 0:07:28.400 --> 0:07:30.600 So that's a gain again, That's that's the game plan. 0:07:30.600 --> 0:07:31.680 That's what he wants to do. He wants you to 0:07:31.680 --> 0:07:33.200 get you in the mud. He wants you to keep 0:07:33.280 --> 0:07:35.760 changing looks every two seconds and having to adapt to 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:38.520 what he's doing and staying ahead of you, Whereas Nope, 0:07:38.640 --> 0:07:42.119 most coaches don't make adjustments as quickly as Belichick does, 0:07:42.200 --> 0:07:43.960 and as well in the second half too. So no 0:07:44.040 --> 0:07:45.320 matter what they were doing the first half, you know 0:07:45.360 --> 0:07:47.000 they were going to have more things to throw him 0:07:47.000 --> 0:07:49.320 in the second half. So the under in that game 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:50.760 does not surprise me whatsoever. 0:07:51.280 --> 0:07:54.920 All Right, Jets are technically visiting the Falcons, but they're 0:07:54.920 --> 0:07:56.920 in London in this one early in the morning on 0:07:57.000 --> 0:07:59.880 Sunday the Falcons. The consensus sign is laying three and 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:03.760 a half. The total is forty six. What do you think, Joey. 0:08:04.280 --> 0:08:07.360 I think I want to apologize to Great Britain for 0:08:07.480 --> 0:08:11.800 sending them this game. This is football. Here you go, everybody, 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:13.800 here you go. Here's the best we can offer you. 0:08:13.880 --> 0:08:17.840 I mean, come on, man over there. 0:08:18.440 --> 0:08:20.320 Oh hey, we had Murph on the show a couple 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:23.200 of weeks back, right, I mean it is huge there. 0:08:23.400 --> 0:08:27.400 That's a Jets Dolphins game several years ago, and that 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:31.600 place goes insane any football, regardless of the level of play. 0:08:31.680 --> 0:08:34.360 So don't apologize. Let them enjoy it and let them 0:08:34.400 --> 0:08:36.480 watch the Jets cover the three and a half spread. 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:39.760 Right, God, I hate this game. It's gross. 0:08:39.960 --> 0:08:40.760 Run man. 0:08:40.920 --> 0:08:43.120 I don't like when I don't have a beat on 0:08:43.160 --> 0:08:45.200 either of these teams, and neither of them are good 0:08:45.240 --> 0:08:47.840 football teams. I don't care if the Jets game away 0:08:47.880 --> 0:08:50.200 with a victory. It's also the travel. You don't know 0:08:50.200 --> 0:08:52.200 how teams are going to react to need this game. 0:08:52.440 --> 0:08:55.080 Most London games are a bad investment. This one in 0:08:55.120 --> 0:08:57.600 particular is awful because you have two bad teams and 0:08:57.640 --> 0:08:59.679 you don't know how bad. It's going to be if 0:08:59.720 --> 0:09:02.200 any maybe you can look towards the under if you 0:09:02.240 --> 0:09:04.280 thought the defenses were any good. But I don't think 0:09:04.320 --> 0:09:06.360 the defenses are any good. So this is a complete 0:09:06.400 --> 0:09:08.040 stay away from y'all. Have nothing to do with this 0:09:08.120 --> 0:09:09.800 game for a myriad of reasons. 0:09:10.040 --> 0:09:12.120 Yeah, I'm not going near the total because I think 0:09:12.120 --> 0:09:15.520 it's very difficult, like you said, with the huge travel 0:09:15.640 --> 0:09:19.360 like this, to understand how teams are going to react. 0:09:19.720 --> 0:09:21.280 But I am telling you right now that I do 0:09:21.360 --> 0:09:23.400 not think that the Falcons should be more than a 0:09:23.400 --> 0:09:26.480 field goal favorite over anyone at this point in the season. 0:09:26.720 --> 0:09:30.480 And again, you saw the Jets. Okay, and you know 0:09:30.600 --> 0:09:33.360 I'm not a homer like obviously and stuff like that, 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:35.520 but we saw the Jets. Pat and I talked about 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:37.120 it last week. By the way, we liked the Jets 0:09:37.160 --> 0:09:39.120 certainly getting this seven, and we kind of like them 0:09:39.120 --> 0:09:40.640 on the money line because we thought this was a 0:09:40.679 --> 0:09:45.760 possibility when you play a less than above average defense, 0:09:45.800 --> 0:09:47.800 as the Jets have played every single week. Their offensive 0:09:47.840 --> 0:09:50.840 line is terrible, their defense has no personnel, but the 0:09:50.880 --> 0:09:54.080 scheme works. Okay, they're getting healthier there, it's possible elize 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:56.079 more plays. I'll take the Jets here man, and I 0:09:56.120 --> 0:09:57.800 don't think you need to run. I don't think it's 0:09:57.840 --> 0:09:59.240 going to get to a field goal or anything like that. 0:09:59.280 --> 0:10:01.520 I mean DraftKings that four and a half actually, But 0:10:01.760 --> 0:10:04.080 I think you can bet it now. You can wait 0:10:04.120 --> 0:10:05.840 if you want, But I will take the Jets if 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:08.120 you're giving me the hook, just because, honestly, I don't 0:10:08.120 --> 0:10:09.720 think the valten should be more than a three point 0:10:09.720 --> 0:10:11.280 favorite over anyone right now. 0:10:11.400 --> 0:10:13.440 I like having crowder back in that offense. I think 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:15.640 that's a really good safety net for a young quarterback. 0:10:15.840 --> 0:10:17.719 That was the only guy that Sam Darnold could throw 0:10:17.760 --> 0:10:19.679 the ball to for the first year or so of 0:10:19.720 --> 0:10:22.400 his Jets career. So I think that's a good thing there, 0:10:22.440 --> 0:10:24.680 and a confidence builder for a win. Not only the 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:27.560 Jets winning a football game would want to throw gatorade 0:10:27.559 --> 0:10:30.240 on their coach. Only the Jets would want to do that. 0:10:30.280 --> 0:10:32.079 But your nuts if you make an investment in this game, 0:10:32.120 --> 0:10:35.120 I'm sorry. There's so many this is four outcomes written 0:10:35.200 --> 0:10:35.959 all over it. 0:10:36.480 --> 0:10:39.360 I'm taking the I'm taking the hush Man. Call me crazy, 0:10:39.400 --> 0:10:40.920 I'm fine to do it. Let's go with the crazy 0:10:40.960 --> 0:10:44.560 visiting crazy. That's fine. I've been called worse Saints visiting Washington. 0:10:45.040 --> 0:10:47.480 The Saints are laying one and a half points here. 0:10:47.520 --> 0:10:49.720 The total is forty four and a half. 0:10:49.800 --> 0:10:52.160 What do you think, Joe, This is a fascinating one. 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:55.840 This almost feels like too easy to me. You know, 0:10:55.920 --> 0:10:58.760 the Washington football team, for all their struggles on defense 0:10:58.840 --> 0:11:02.560 this year, offensively have okay. And they get Kurtis Samuel 0:11:02.600 --> 0:11:05.680 back in Taylor Heineke. You know, in terms of fantasy points, 0:11:05.679 --> 0:11:08.439 he's put up you know, QB one three weeks in 0:11:08.480 --> 0:11:10.640 a row here. So I mean, nobody seems to care 0:11:10.720 --> 0:11:13.040 or notice that except me, and I keep bringing this up. 0:11:13.080 --> 0:11:14.560 And that's why he was our lock of the Week 0:11:14.600 --> 0:11:16.800 play on the DFS show along with McLaurin. That was 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:19.720 the pairing and if you played that, you did pretty well. 0:11:20.000 --> 0:11:23.040 But the point here is, I think with the Saints 0:11:23.120 --> 0:11:26.520 inefficiencies on offense, with them traveling here on the road, 0:11:26.920 --> 0:11:30.520 coming off a bad loss at home, you know, going 0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:33.520 into overtime in that game, I like Washington here on 0:11:33.559 --> 0:11:36.959 this side. I think I would definitely take the Washington side. 0:11:37.120 --> 0:11:40.200 This should be a relatively close game theoretically, but the 0:11:40.280 --> 0:11:42.400 whole going back and forth a quarterback thing to me, 0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:44.920 that always just takes offenses out of a rhythm. I'm sorry, 0:11:44.920 --> 0:11:48.120 it's just it's very difficult to operate that way. I 0:11:48.120 --> 0:11:49.680 would stay away from the total. I would just go 0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:51.360 right to the Washington side with the one and a half, 0:11:51.400 --> 0:11:53.720 which is what I'm seeing over from FanDuel. I would 0:11:53.720 --> 0:11:56.000 even take them outright as plus one twelve. I actually 0:11:56.040 --> 0:11:58.439 think that's a pretty good number you're getting on them 0:11:58.440 --> 0:12:01.360 as well. I think Washington a little bit of confidence 0:12:01.400 --> 0:12:03.760 builder for them last week that was a big road 0:12:03.760 --> 0:12:06.520 win despite the fact the Falcons aren't any good. You 0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:09.280 still road winds are tough, and I think you get 0:12:09.280 --> 0:12:11.200 back home a little bit. You build some momentum off 0:12:11.200 --> 0:12:13.160 of that off of New Orleans Saints team that to 0:12:13.240 --> 0:12:15.920 me has all kinds of issues, and Callaway is probably 0:12:15.960 --> 0:12:18.160 gonna be out for this game too, possibly, So I 0:12:18.160 --> 0:12:20.960 think you're in a spot here where New Orleans offensively 0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:23.520 is just kind of banged up, beaten up, not very good. 0:12:23.559 --> 0:12:26.679 The defense is good, but not great. I don't know, man, 0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:28.280 I think this is a dangerous game here for the Saints. 0:12:28.280 --> 0:12:29.400 I take the Washington sign. 0:12:29.760 --> 0:12:32.520 I'm staying away from it. I think your points are valid. 0:12:32.600 --> 0:12:36.520 This just strikes me as sort of the classic right, 0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:39.400 I feel like, I mean, it's simplistic to sort of 0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:41.640 describe it this way, but there's like a very clear 0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:44.920 sort of bilo sell high. Washington comes off that big win, 0:12:45.320 --> 0:12:48.080 Saints come off a really bad loss, Like you could 0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:51.320 see the Saints coming out here and just winning this game. 0:12:51.360 --> 0:12:53.640 And again that if you bet it now, if you 0:12:53.679 --> 0:12:55.280 bet it later, if you like a side, don't, you 0:12:55.320 --> 0:12:56.959 don't have to rush. It's minus one and a half. 0:12:57.000 --> 0:12:59.559 As Joe mentioned at Fandal, that's our consentsus sign is 0:12:59.559 --> 0:13:03.280 pretty much unanimously the Saints laying one and a half. 0:13:03.480 --> 0:13:04.920 I don't. I don't a good feel for it. I'm 0:13:04.920 --> 0:13:07.280 not going near the total with you. I agree completely, 0:13:07.600 --> 0:13:09.640 but it's something where I'm staying away. I feel a 0:13:09.640 --> 0:13:10.440 little less confident. 0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:12.400 I think the wrong team is favored in this game. 0:13:12.480 --> 0:13:15.800 Straight up. Whenever you think that, that's where you go bet, 0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:17.800 like if you look at like what I like to 0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:19.480 do with this is an exercise I learned from my 0:13:19.520 --> 0:13:21.760 good friend Betty your Chardi over the years. You do 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:24.080 the lines yourself before you go look at the line 0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:26.640 correct And I would have had Washington favored by three 0:13:26.640 --> 0:13:29.520 in this game. And so okay lost one and a half. 0:13:29.400 --> 0:13:31.520 Right now, all right, So I would have had Washington 0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:34.600 basically favored by a point, like so to me, when 0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:36.400 you you know, that's not a big deal, Like one 0:13:36.400 --> 0:13:37.880 and a half one way, one the other way, not 0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:39.360 a big deal. So if you had it at three, 0:13:39.440 --> 0:13:42.400 then you're definitely taking Washington this game. Yeah. For me, 0:13:42.480 --> 0:13:44.800 I don't know. I find them a little more evenly mashed, 0:13:44.960 --> 0:13:46.839 not like they do. Get Curtis Samuel back, but they're 0:13:46.880 --> 0:13:49.560 going to be down Logan Thomas and you know, I 0:13:49.720 --> 0:13:51.560 it's just something where I don't I don't have a 0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:53.600 beat on the Saints team yet, Joe. That's really the 0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:57.520 issue for me. Like they're not impressive offensively, they are 0:13:57.840 --> 0:14:01.440 generally speaking pretty impressive deep when they're healthy and everything 0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:03.440 like that. It's just I don't know. To stay away 0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:06.000 from me, but this one is interesting to me, Joe. 0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:09.120 The Packers are visiting the Bengals. The Packers are laying 0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:11.320 three and a half points. The total is forty nine 0:14:11.360 --> 0:14:12.440 and a half. What do you think. 0:14:12.320 --> 0:14:16.079 Here, Well, I think if you don't get T Higgins 0:14:16.080 --> 0:14:18.079 back on this game, this is going to be a 0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:19.880 tough one here, Joe, Mixon's banged up. 0:14:20.280 --> 0:14:23.240 He is expected to play though the early word early 0:14:23.280 --> 0:14:25.240 word right, early word early words. 0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:27.160 He expected to play, and I would expect he is 0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:29.760 going to play and does play. But at the same time, 0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:31.480 if you don't have Higgins on that field too, then 0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:33.480 that means Alexander is going to be on Chase, and 0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:36.680 we all know how that goes. If he takes out Chase, 0:14:36.720 --> 0:14:38.560 then all of a sudden, you're gonna have to find 0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:40.760 other pieces. And if mix is not one hundred percent, 0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:42.760 I don't know what this other pieces are. I don't 0:14:42.760 --> 0:14:44.600 think Tyler Boyd is enough year, even at home, to 0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:46.800 beat the Packers. So Packers by three and a half 0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:48.040 to me, actually, I would take the three and a 0:14:48.080 --> 0:14:49.600 half on the Packers side of this one. I actually 0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:51.840 think they win this one by a touchdown, and I 0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:53.200 think they win it pretty handily. And I want to 0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:55.880 give the Bengals some respect too, because defensively, they played 0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:57.560 much better in the second half. Last year. They were 0:14:57.600 --> 0:14:59.360 a dormat. Everybody made fun of them in the first 0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:01.760 half and then they kind of flip the switch. They 0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:05.920 don't have a ton of talent necessarily, yeah, but they 0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:09.400 play hard and they play smart. And it kind of 0:15:09.520 --> 0:15:11.320 dates back also to that game they had last year 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:13.360 against Pittsburgh, if your call that. I remember that primetime 0:15:13.360 --> 0:15:16.920 game where they embarrassed the Steelers right and ever since 0:15:16.960 --> 0:15:19.320 then in the offseason they made some moves as well. 0:15:19.640 --> 0:15:22.080 We actually highlighted them on the IDP Show earlier this week. 0:15:22.120 --> 0:15:23.760 Bob Mey and I we talked at length about the 0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:27.760 Bengals defense. They are better, which means that I still 0:15:27.800 --> 0:15:30.080 feel like the under is a little bit more possible 0:15:30.120 --> 0:15:31.800 for this game. I would lean towards the under because 0:15:31.840 --> 0:15:34.920 I don't think the Packers are gonna explode necessarily offensively, 0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:37.040 but I do think they're gonna control this game from 0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:39.000 start to finish, and I do think they're gonna win 0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:41.520 it comfortably. So for me, I think it's the three 0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:43.560 and a half side on the Packers. But I would 0:15:43.560 --> 0:15:46.120 shy the under here just to Tad, just because I 0:15:46.160 --> 0:15:48.240 don't think Cincinnati can keep pace. And I also don't 0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:51.040 think the way the Cincinnati Bengals defenses played that they're 0:15:51.040 --> 0:15:52.800 gonna let it get completely out of control. 0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:56.200 Yeah, I don't have a great sense of it either. 0:15:56.440 --> 0:15:59.040 Really with this game, I lean towards the Packers, even 0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:01.800 with the it's weird. I mean, the Bengals are off 0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:04.840 kind of the Mini by it's possible mixing plays. He's 0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:06.080 going to be day to day until the end, and 0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:07.560 then he's gonna be out for six weeks like we 0:16:07.560 --> 0:16:10.320 were last year. But regardless that, no, that certainly hurts him. 0:16:10.320 --> 0:16:11.840 But I expect Higgins to play. I don't know if 0:16:11.920 --> 0:16:13.520 j R. Alexander is gonna be able to play in 0:16:13.560 --> 0:16:15.400 this one because he's got the ac joint, you know, 0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:18.600 injury thing. So maybe he does, maybe he doesn't. There's 0:16:18.840 --> 0:16:22.120 some unknowns here, and especially again given the fact that 0:16:22.120 --> 0:16:24.720 they're off the Mini by I lean Packers, I think 0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:27.680 you're probably going to see this basically stay where it is. 0:16:27.760 --> 0:16:30.040 I don't think it gets to three, although admittedly I 0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:31.680 do see a three out there at Fox Bet. But 0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:33.560 I think for the most part, books are three and 0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:35.440 a half. I think that's the right line. I think 0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:37.080 it's going to stay there. Did you say you lean 0:16:37.240 --> 0:16:38.840 the under Joe? If you went one way or the other, 0:16:38.840 --> 0:16:39.120 I do. 0:16:40.320 --> 0:16:42.920 This feels like a twenty four to thirteen kind of 0:16:42.960 --> 0:16:43.440 game to me. 0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:46.760 Yeah, and the Packers offense is not like it. You know, 0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:50.080 DeVonta Adams is incredible. Aaron Jones is amazing, Aaron Rodgers amazing. 0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:52.240 But it's not It doesn't have that explosive feel right now. 0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:55.760 And again you mentioned the Bengals defense. It's playing much 0:16:55.760 --> 0:16:56.720 better than I expected. 0:16:56.840 --> 0:16:59.240 They're making plays there. Yeah, coached, well, they're in a 0:16:59.240 --> 0:17:02.000 good spot here. Yeah, Bells played very well. A couple 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:03.600 of the other guys on defense have really kind of 0:17:03.600 --> 0:17:05.600 stepped up a little bit. Again, they don't have you know, 0:17:05.600 --> 0:17:07.280 they don't have the Miles Garrett, they don't have the 0:17:07.320 --> 0:17:09.040 Aaron Donald, they don't have that kind of push you 0:17:09.080 --> 0:17:12.439 get up front. Necessarily. What they've done is they've remade 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:14.119 the secondary a little bit and they've booked up in 0:17:14.160 --> 0:17:18.520 the linebacker corps and they're playing They're playing efficient defense, 0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:20.960 and they're not letting teams kind of explode on them 0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:22.480 anymore the way that they did in the first half 0:17:22.560 --> 0:17:25.880 last year, which is good progress. But at the same points, 0:17:26.320 --> 0:17:29.119 I thought Burrow played very well. But you're talking about 0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:32.440 taking that game and that performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars. 0:17:32.480 --> 0:17:34.720 You can't translate that to a Packers team that's just 0:17:35.040 --> 0:17:36.200 infinitely more talented. 0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:39.159 Yeah, this one's fascinating, Joe. This game because we have 0:17:39.200 --> 0:17:41.000 a lot of question marks. I've also made a lot 0:17:41.040 --> 0:17:44.640 of money here taking the unders on the Broncos game. 0:17:44.880 --> 0:17:48.760 I'm late. This is the Broncos are visiting Pittsburgh. The 0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:52.399 Steelers are laying one and a half, and they are saying, 0:17:52.440 --> 0:17:54.840 go ahead and take the over. We don't care. It's 0:17:55.000 --> 0:17:59.800 forty forty even for the total. What do you think again, Aldon, 0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:02.840 let's talk about the uncertainty. Obviously, Teddy Bridgewater is in 0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:05.800 the concussion protocol as we speak, he is uncertain for 0:18:05.880 --> 0:18:08.960 this game. There is a large difference for me whether 0:18:09.040 --> 0:18:11.320 or not it's Teddy Bridgewater versus Drew Locke. But what 0:18:11.400 --> 0:18:13.119 do you think right now where we are. 0:18:13.600 --> 0:18:16.120 I don't think that matters all that much. I could 0:18:16.119 --> 0:18:18.320 not believe that they lost two straight games at home. 0:18:19.119 --> 0:18:21.600 The Pittsburgh stear is going to lose three straight games 0:18:21.640 --> 0:18:23.720 in Pittsburgh. Man, that's tough. I mean, I don't know. 0:18:23.800 --> 0:18:26.480 New England just did it. They all three straight home games. 0:18:26.560 --> 0:18:28.200 And man, if you don't have the personnel, you don't 0:18:28.200 --> 0:18:28.840 have the personnel. 0:18:29.119 --> 0:18:31.959 I know. But also typically you know certain buildings, certain 0:18:32.080 --> 0:18:34.080 environments are tougher to play than others. We know that 0:18:34.400 --> 0:18:38.520 it's just historically true. But the Steelers have all kinds 0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:41.119 of issues right now, the Denver Broncos, I know, with 0:18:41.160 --> 0:18:44.080 the uncertainty quarterback. Once again, this is a very tricky game. 0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:46.560 This feels like a trap game to me that typically 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:48.840 I would stay away from. But the total of the forty, 0:18:48.880 --> 0:18:50.520 I mean, it's just kind of begging for the over. 0:18:50.800 --> 0:18:53.159 Forty and a half is just I mean, in this 0:18:53.200 --> 0:18:54.640 day and age of the NFL, if you can't get 0:18:54.640 --> 0:18:55.840 to forty and a half or two the two of you, 0:18:55.960 --> 0:18:59.720 and look, this could very well be you know what 0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:02.080 right on that seventeen thirteen kind of line. 0:19:02.200 --> 0:19:05.880 Right, Yeah, they have been throughout the whole right, that's 0:19:05.920 --> 0:19:08.000 where they've been living right now. Their defense is very 0:19:08.119 --> 0:19:12.240 very good. Their offense is unexplosive, and the Steelers have 0:19:12.680 --> 0:19:14.879 no offense to speak of. I mean, whether or not 0:19:14.960 --> 0:19:18.360 Chase Claypole pops up here, it doesn't matter. Their offensive 0:19:18.400 --> 0:19:22.000 line is absolutely abysmal. Their defense is solid, not that 0:19:22.040 --> 0:19:24.800 they've got wopped back. I mean, I'm not betting the under, Joe, 0:19:24.880 --> 0:19:27.000 because it's forty, Like that is just a number that 0:19:27.240 --> 0:19:28.200 really it's not a. 0:19:28.119 --> 0:19:30.399 Good You have to lean towards the over. But I 0:19:30.440 --> 0:19:33.080 will say this Dan. The minus one and a half 0:19:33.160 --> 0:19:35.240 here on the Pittsburgh side. I think you also have 0:19:35.320 --> 0:19:38.600 to keep in mind that even though Pittsburgh has struggled, 0:19:38.640 --> 0:19:41.359 they did beat Buffalo, and even though Denver has a 0:19:41.400 --> 0:19:43.960 three to one record, they beat up on bad teams. 0:19:44.240 --> 0:19:46.040 So the minute they got a taste of a good 0:19:46.040 --> 0:19:49.440 team here in their own building, no less, Baltimore straight 0:19:49.480 --> 0:19:53.359 up embarrassed them in that game. Right, So I think 0:19:53.400 --> 0:19:55.200 this is that perfect thing where people might think Denver 0:19:55.280 --> 0:19:56.920 is a little bit better than they are. I would 0:19:57.000 --> 0:19:58.399 lean towards the minus one and a half here on 0:19:58.400 --> 0:20:02.040 the Pittsburgh side of this game. It's minus one twenty 0:20:02.040 --> 0:20:04.600 two here on the money line for Pittsburgh tells you 0:20:04.640 --> 0:20:06.760 that there's some confidence there that the Steels are gonna 0:20:06.760 --> 0:20:09.040 win this football game. This is a game where people 0:20:09.040 --> 0:20:12.320 get caught up on record instead of the strength of opponent. 0:20:12.680 --> 0:20:14.560 And I think the Steelers have, you know, played some 0:20:14.600 --> 0:20:16.520 good teams. I think Las Vegas is a good team. 0:20:16.920 --> 0:20:21.719 You know, they they battle. They're not the as wishy 0:20:21.800 --> 0:20:23.399 washy I think as they were in the past, despite 0:20:23.400 --> 0:20:25.240 the fact that they're coming off a Monday night loss. 0:20:25.280 --> 0:20:26.720 I think when you look back now and get a 0:20:26.760 --> 0:20:29.800 little bit more perspective on these first four weeks. Pittsburgh's 0:20:29.800 --> 0:20:32.479 had the tougher schedule and they have the worst record. 0:20:32.920 --> 0:20:34.920 But I'm not gonna get hung up on Denver's good 0:20:34.960 --> 0:20:37.359 record either. I don't think Denver is as good of 0:20:37.400 --> 0:20:39.600 a football team as their record says they are, So 0:20:39.600 --> 0:20:41.280 I would take the Pittsburgh out of this game at 0:20:41.320 --> 0:20:42.119 minus one and a half. 0:20:42.359 --> 0:20:44.119 So for me, I don't care the fact that the 0:20:44.160 --> 0:20:46.520 Broncos are three and one or that the Steelers are 0:20:46.560 --> 0:20:49.200 one in three. I mean, I agree that the Broncos 0:20:49.200 --> 0:20:52.280 have benefited from the lack of quality opponents that they 0:20:52.280 --> 0:20:54.359 have played in the first three weeks, but I do 0:20:54.400 --> 0:20:58.280 think that their defense is legitimate. I do think, to 0:20:58.359 --> 0:21:00.919 be you know, quite honest, I really think that the 0:21:00.920 --> 0:21:03.080 loss of kJ Hamler is a huge loss for the 0:21:03.080 --> 0:21:06.679 Broncos just because again already down Jerry Judy. It doesn't 0:21:06.720 --> 0:21:08.879 the field's not open now at this point, right. I mean, 0:21:08.920 --> 0:21:11.520 Handler wasn't that involved, but he at least stretched the field, 0:21:11.880 --> 0:21:14.040 made the you know, safeties, and the quarterbacks have to 0:21:14.080 --> 0:21:17.719 think about that open up intermediate routes here for Courtland 0:21:17.760 --> 0:21:20.840 Sutton and Tim Patrick, that's gone. The Steelers are, as 0:21:20.880 --> 0:21:22.879 you mentioned, desperate. But I have no faith in the 0:21:22.880 --> 0:21:24.960 Steelers right now, Joe. I mean you watch that offense. 0:21:25.080 --> 0:21:28.160 That offensive line is terrible. I actually I don't often, 0:21:28.240 --> 0:21:30.760 as I've said, I don't often feel bad for football players. 0:21:30.760 --> 0:21:33.959 I feel bad for Ben because Ben is honestly like, 0:21:34.200 --> 0:21:36.920 oh God, I'm gonna die. I've got to just find 0:21:36.960 --> 0:21:39.120 a way to survive long enough to dump it off 0:21:39.400 --> 0:21:42.920 four yards down the field. So I'm concerned about their offense. 0:21:43.000 --> 0:21:46.119 With that said, Joe, I number one, especially with the 0:21:46.200 --> 0:21:50.040 uncertainty around Locke versus Bridgewater, which I do think is 0:21:50.040 --> 0:21:52.119 a big deal. By the way, I have zero faith 0:21:52.359 --> 0:21:54.400 and Drew Locke being able to win a game going 0:21:54.400 --> 0:21:57.679 into Pittsburgh. I have more faith in Teddy Covers, you know, 0:21:57.760 --> 0:22:00.200 being able to do it. But for me, I'm very 0:22:00.240 --> 0:22:02.000 uncertain here right now. And I do think that the 0:22:02.040 --> 0:22:05.240 Steelers find a way to win this game and don't 0:22:05.560 --> 0:22:08.000 end their season, which they probably will if they lose 0:22:08.000 --> 0:22:10.000 this game at one and four, Like it's very difficult 0:22:10.000 --> 0:22:11.840 to come back from that. So I am with you 0:22:11.920 --> 0:22:15.760 actually with the uncertainty even if Bridgewater plays, I do 0:22:15.800 --> 0:22:18.359 think this is a game that the Broncos traveling after 0:22:18.480 --> 0:22:20.720 a home game are not going to be able to 0:22:20.760 --> 0:22:23.240 pull out against the Steelers. So I think again, their defense. 0:22:22.920 --> 0:22:24.800 Is just going to bring it wins on defense. 0:22:25.160 --> 0:22:26.000 I think you're correct. 0:22:26.280 --> 0:22:28.720 I think that's correct, you know what, being back and 0:22:28.720 --> 0:22:30.399 playing and one of those losses was not in that 0:22:30.440 --> 0:22:33.160 game either. Yea, No, that's that's another huge loss. I mean, 0:22:33.160 --> 0:22:37.440 he really changes completely how you have to approach the 0:22:37.480 --> 0:22:39.640 Pittsburgh Steelers on the defensive side of the football. 0:22:39.720 --> 0:22:41.760 And I do think that the game, this is a 0:22:41.800 --> 0:22:43.800 game you gotta bet now, I think because I don't 0:22:43.800 --> 0:22:45.040 think right because. 0:22:44.960 --> 0:22:48.480 If it's if half, at least by the time it might. 0:22:48.359 --> 0:22:51.400 Get it might get to three, honestly, because I think 0:22:51.440 --> 0:22:54.800 that once that happens, Drew to me, Lock the downgrade 0:22:54.840 --> 0:22:58.200 from Bridgewater to Locke is enormous. So to me, I 0:22:58.440 --> 0:23:00.240 I'm betting it now because I want to lie in 0:23:00.280 --> 0:23:02.080 because I do think that the Steelers get out of here. 0:23:02.119 --> 0:23:06.160 Let's go to the Dolphins visiting the Bucks Florida game. Here. 0:23:06.320 --> 0:23:08.280 The Bucks right now are laying ten and a half. 0:23:08.600 --> 0:23:10.720 The total is forty eight. What do you think. 0:23:12.320 --> 0:23:15.360 You know? It should be an absolute cake walk. I mean, 0:23:15.440 --> 0:23:18.440 it just an absolutely shit. I see on Fandle it's 0:23:18.440 --> 0:23:20.320 forty seven and a half. You said it's forty eight 0:23:20.320 --> 0:23:21.240 in another spot there. 0:23:21.280 --> 0:23:23.880 Correct, it's forty eight, is our consensus lines. It's basically 0:23:23.920 --> 0:23:26.119 bouncing back and forth between forty eight. 0:23:26.200 --> 0:23:29.200 Yeah, you know, like Tampa should absolutely smash the Dolphins. 0:23:29.240 --> 0:23:32.040 I mean they really should. Theoretically, I wonder what the 0:23:33.200 --> 0:23:35.399 it's only going to react two ways right after a 0:23:35.520 --> 0:23:38.760 very emotional week leading up for Brady. There's a lot 0:23:38.800 --> 0:23:41.159 of stuff going on there, right yeah, and it's finally 0:23:41.160 --> 0:23:43.520 all over. So either they bounce back and everything is 0:23:43.600 --> 0:23:45.720 just great. No, I oh, finally that's over. We're done 0:23:45.720 --> 0:23:47.760 with that. We can move on. We got the big 0:23:47.800 --> 0:23:49.800 win in New England and then we're back to being 0:23:49.880 --> 0:23:52.520 you know, the Bruse Area's fun loving Buccaneers. Or it 0:23:52.600 --> 0:23:54.320 took so much out of them that there's a little 0:23:54.320 --> 0:23:55.920 bit of hangover in the beginning of this game, and 0:23:55.960 --> 0:23:59.600 if there is, that's where some of these large numbers 0:23:59.680 --> 0:24:02.160 kind of come went to play the Dolphins right now. 0:24:02.240 --> 0:24:04.080 Last week had all kinds of problems. Are not gonna 0:24:04.080 --> 0:24:06.359 have Wolf Fullers. That's one less weapon to have. They 0:24:06.400 --> 0:24:09.199 could not run the football at all last week, that 0:24:09.320 --> 0:24:12.240 is going to be exasperated the worst way this week. 0:24:12.600 --> 0:24:16.119 So that is not a good situation. I think right now, 0:24:16.680 --> 0:24:18.520 you know, the over under is not something I would 0:24:18.680 --> 0:24:20.879 play around with because I think there's variables in that 0:24:20.920 --> 0:24:24.240 depending on how much the Miami offense does or does 0:24:24.280 --> 0:24:26.120 not show up. So I don't want to put anything 0:24:26.160 --> 0:24:28.000 into Miami because whenever you talk about totals, you have 0:24:28.000 --> 0:24:29.439 to talk about both teams in your head for the 0:24:29.440 --> 0:24:33.240 most part, and I'm concerned of Miami doing their part 0:24:33.480 --> 0:24:36.640 to hit this number. Therefore, I think the safest thing 0:24:36.640 --> 0:24:38.760 here to look at, even though it's ten and a half, 0:24:39.560 --> 0:24:40.879 I just think the Bucks are going to be up 0:24:40.880 --> 0:24:42.400 by a lot in this game. I could worry about 0:24:42.440 --> 0:24:44.480 garbage time a little bit, but again, we don't have 0:24:44.520 --> 0:24:47.240 that field stretcher guy like Will Fuller. Makes a little 0:24:47.280 --> 0:24:49.200 bit harder to kind of catch up, and you can't 0:24:49.240 --> 0:24:52.919 run the football, you become one dimensional. The one thing 0:24:52.960 --> 0:24:54.440 that gives me, Paul is Dan is they've had all 0:24:54.480 --> 0:24:57.960 those injuries in the secondary right for the Bucks. So Ken, 0:24:58.080 --> 0:25:01.359 DeVante Parker, Ken Waddle, can they enough to kind of 0:25:01.440 --> 0:25:03.400 keep pace at the end a little bit or throw 0:25:03.440 --> 0:25:05.240 on some garbage time and all of a sudden, maybe 0:25:05.240 --> 0:25:08.760 cut you know, a fourteen point lead to ten. Yeah, 0:25:08.920 --> 0:25:12.359 maybe they can. It's possible. But at the same time, 0:25:12.600 --> 0:25:14.280 I don't know, man, I think it's the Bucks in 0:25:14.320 --> 0:25:16.040 the ten and a half, even though it's a big number. 0:25:16.119 --> 0:25:18.639 But I would stay away from the overunder because the overunder, 0:25:18.680 --> 0:25:21.600 to me, there's that variable where this is the Dolphins 0:25:21.600 --> 0:25:23.520 could get shut out again. It's not out of the 0:25:23.600 --> 0:25:24.480 rum of possibility. 0:25:24.600 --> 0:25:28.440 It's not a The best part is that teams don't 0:25:28.440 --> 0:25:30.239 even try to run right now in the box right 0:25:30.359 --> 0:25:32.840 like other than Sony Michelle with the Rams, where that 0:25:32.960 --> 0:25:34.280 was a game where they were just like, we can 0:25:34.280 --> 0:25:35.920 just run it because we're gonna win this game where 0:25:35.920 --> 0:25:38.399 he hit twenty carries, teams just basically go into it. 0:25:38.440 --> 0:25:40.439 You saw the Patriots, They're like, oh, we're we're not 0:25:40.440 --> 0:25:42.480 gonna try to run, like we know we can't run. 0:25:42.520 --> 0:25:45.359 We're just gonna pass and that's fine. And look, you 0:25:45.520 --> 0:25:48.399 saw the Patriots have some success even with the driving 0:25:48.520 --> 0:25:52.480 rain in that game. Mac Jones played very well even 0:25:52.560 --> 0:25:55.840 without really having the field stretcher that going you know 0:25:55.960 --> 0:25:58.080 that taking shots. It was a lot of short passes, 0:25:58.080 --> 0:26:01.120 but it worked out for them. But I do think that, yeah, 0:26:01.200 --> 0:26:04.040 Miami even if they abandoned the run without will Fuller 0:26:04.240 --> 0:26:07.119 without that, and Fuller hasn't been you know, it's barely 0:26:07.160 --> 0:26:08.640 been playing this year. 0:26:08.760 --> 0:26:11.119 No, But it's just a theory Dan like have that 0:26:11.160 --> 0:26:14.040 guy you can get behind a secondary and they don't. Right. 0:26:14.040 --> 0:26:16.000 I don't think if DeVante Parker is really that guy 0:26:16.040 --> 0:26:19.960 at the stage's but Parker. It's just a matter of 0:26:20.560 --> 0:26:23.359 looking at Miami Dolphins realistically here and as good as 0:26:23.359 --> 0:26:25.359 they were last year, I feel like there's part of 0:26:25.440 --> 0:26:27.359 us that are still kind of carrying that torch a 0:26:27.400 --> 0:26:30.000 little bit. But if you really hyper focus on what 0:26:30.000 --> 0:26:31.880 they've done so far this year, it's not been good. 0:26:32.240 --> 0:26:34.959 It's really been negative for the most part, outside of 0:26:35.000 --> 0:26:38.159 like glimpses here and there. And you can blame it 0:26:38.200 --> 0:26:40.560 on too it being hurt. That's that's fair, that's fine 0:26:40.640 --> 0:26:42.120 if you want it. But it wasn't all roses when 0:26:42.119 --> 0:26:44.720 Toua was healthy, either, right. I think I think right 0:26:44.760 --> 0:26:46.800 now people are still kind of thinking of the Dolphins 0:26:46.840 --> 0:26:48.800 and how you know, they competed and they just missed 0:26:48.840 --> 0:26:51.199 the playoffs and what they were last year, whereas this year, 0:26:51.240 --> 0:26:52.960 I think they've actually taken a step back, believe it 0:26:53.040 --> 0:26:54.760 or not. Even the personnel has been better. 0:26:55.400 --> 0:26:59.119 Yeah, and again they're I don't really bottomize this. I'm 0:26:59.160 --> 0:27:00.840 staying away from this game because I do think that 0:27:00.880 --> 0:27:03.160 the potential for a back door cover is right there. 0:27:03.280 --> 0:27:06.000 And again I do think that in addition to the 0:27:06.040 --> 0:27:07.600 weather and in addition to the Patriots, I do think 0:27:07.600 --> 0:27:09.440 the loss of Gronk Cowskin, I'm not expecting him to 0:27:09.440 --> 0:27:11.560 play in this game. Base and everything we've heard is 0:27:11.600 --> 0:27:14.920 the fact that he is such a good blocker that 0:27:15.040 --> 0:27:16.960 the fact that he's not there, I think really opens 0:27:17.040 --> 0:27:19.159 up sort of pressure to get I'm Brady, which I 0:27:19.200 --> 0:27:19.760 think could. 0:27:19.600 --> 0:27:21.840 Have understand that. I can understand that. I will say 0:27:21.840 --> 0:27:24.560 this though, having those three wide receivers, the Dolphins don't 0:27:24.640 --> 0:27:27.280 have the juice to stop all of those guys, and 0:27:27.320 --> 0:27:29.320 even in that rain. Yet you know, in that game 0:27:29.359 --> 0:27:32.400 on Sunday night at AB come down with that incredible 0:27:32.440 --> 0:27:34.520 throw in the end zone, Like we're probably looking at different, 0:27:34.560 --> 0:27:37.680 like that's the thing in a perfect scenario right where 0:27:37.760 --> 0:27:41.119 schemes aren't as good, but the talent on the field 0:27:41.320 --> 0:27:45.560 is those plays get made by Antonio Brown by Mike Evans, 0:27:45.560 --> 0:27:48.240 and I think those guys are gonna eat and it's 0:27:48.240 --> 0:27:50.440 gonna be a lot too much for the Dolphins. 0:27:50.640 --> 0:27:52.520 That is fair. I certainly expect them to win, but 0:27:52.600 --> 0:27:56.080 I'm I'm gonna stay away from the potential for a backdoor. 0:27:55.880 --> 0:27:59.480 Covert using Leonard Fournette. I think in that game, I 0:27:59.520 --> 0:28:00.919 think you're gonn see a little bit more of that 0:28:01.000 --> 0:28:02.960 going forward. I think I think the Bucks are starting 0:28:03.000 --> 0:28:04.520 to figure out what I think the Chiefs are figuring 0:28:04.520 --> 0:28:06.200 out too, which is we got to have some kind 0:28:06.240 --> 0:28:09.639 of balance here. We have to change. We can't just be, 0:28:10.040 --> 0:28:11.560 you know, throwing the ball sixty times a game. We 0:28:11.560 --> 0:28:12.440 can't do that anymore. 0:28:12.840 --> 0:28:16.120 Yeah, how about the Titans are now visiting the Jaguars. 0:28:16.160 --> 0:28:19.040 The Titans are laying for. The total is forty eight 0:28:19.040 --> 0:28:21.080 and a half. Can the Titans lose to the two 0:28:21.119 --> 0:28:23.159 worst teams in football and back to back weeks? 0:28:23.320 --> 0:28:26.560 No, because the only team that's, you know, really even 0:28:26.640 --> 0:28:29.879 more just a hot mess right now than the Titans 0:28:30.080 --> 0:28:33.439 might be the Jaguars and probably the Houston Texans, right so, oh, 0:28:33.560 --> 0:28:35.320 the Texans. You know, I would have said the same 0:28:35.320 --> 0:28:38.880 thing with the Jets. But you know, I think everybody 0:28:39.160 --> 0:28:41.200 kind of forgets that when you take away not one, 0:28:41.240 --> 0:28:43.720 but two big targets like that in one game, it 0:28:43.800 --> 0:28:45.280 is really tough to go on the road and win. 0:28:45.960 --> 0:28:47.720 I think some of this side stuff this week with 0:28:47.840 --> 0:28:50.360 Erbin Meyer is going to be a huge distraction to 0:28:50.360 --> 0:28:53.120 a team that is not a veteran team that is 0:28:53.160 --> 0:28:55.120 not going to be able to put it aside. This 0:28:55.200 --> 0:28:58.560 is a bad situation here for the Jaguars. I don't. 0:28:58.680 --> 0:29:00.840 That being said, this is not a game I feel 0:29:00.840 --> 0:29:04.120 comfortable investing in it all, not in the over, not 0:29:04.200 --> 0:29:06.880 the under, and not in the number. I just don't. 0:29:07.520 --> 0:29:10.960 Because the health of the Tennessee Titans, their lack of defense, 0:29:11.480 --> 0:29:13.840 coming off a terrible loss last week, there just seemed 0:29:13.880 --> 0:29:16.120 to be a team I think that from a confidence standpoint, 0:29:16.200 --> 0:29:18.720 is reeling a little bit. They had expectations, they added 0:29:18.800 --> 0:29:20.600 Julio Jones, this is going to be a team that 0:29:21.120 --> 0:29:23.160 was really going to start to click up into that 0:29:23.200 --> 0:29:25.680 elite notch right back to back years in the playoffs. 0:29:26.520 --> 0:29:29.440 This is our year where all our chips in and 0:29:29.480 --> 0:29:31.840 it's got on the opposite direction, partially because of play 0:29:31.880 --> 0:29:34.160 but partially because of the injuries. That being said, I 0:29:34.160 --> 0:29:37.320 still think they win this football game. So does Vegas too, 0:29:37.320 --> 0:29:40.280 because there minus two hundred on the money line. But 0:29:40.360 --> 0:29:41.920 at the same time, man, I don't know how you 0:29:41.920 --> 0:29:45.000 feel comfortable with a four or any number here, Like 0:29:45.080 --> 0:29:47.800 it's just it's just not a comfortable situation here with 0:29:47.800 --> 0:29:49.440 the Titans right now, especially on the road. If this 0:29:49.480 --> 0:29:51.400 was in Tennessee, I feel more comfortable, But not on 0:29:51.440 --> 0:29:53.400 the road. I struggle here back to back road games 0:29:53.400 --> 0:29:53.680 with them. 0:29:54.040 --> 0:29:56.280 If both Julio Jones and A. J. Brown were playing, 0:29:56.800 --> 0:29:57.640 would you take the four? 0:29:58.240 --> 0:29:58.680 Yeah? 0:29:59.000 --> 0:30:01.760 Absolutely, one of Julio Jones and AJ Brown were playing, 0:30:01.800 --> 0:30:05.880 probably yeah. And I expect, like you, neither one of 0:30:05.920 --> 0:30:07.320 them is going to play in this. 0:30:07.200 --> 0:30:08.880 Because I feel like they can get away with it, 0:30:08.920 --> 0:30:11.200 and they you know, last week they had to get 0:30:11.200 --> 0:30:13.520 away with it. This week. Yeah, you're sort of rolling 0:30:13.560 --> 0:30:15.800 the dice and gambling what you can. But I think 0:30:15.840 --> 0:30:17.040 that they will take that gamble. 0:30:17.520 --> 0:30:21.960 I mean, I lean, I lean Tennessee. 0:30:22.400 --> 0:30:24.200 That tells you everything you need to know. It does 0:30:24.920 --> 0:30:28.680 your your sighing and harrumphing tells you why this game 0:30:28.760 --> 0:30:29.720 is a bad investment. 0:30:29.840 --> 0:30:33.640 So no, you're right, You're right. I can't take the 0:30:33.680 --> 0:30:37.200 Jaguars just because I can never take the Jaguars because, again, 0:30:37.400 --> 0:30:39.600 regardless of how I might handicap it or how I 0:30:39.680 --> 0:30:42.800 might look at it, Urban Meyer is like breaks all 0:30:43.040 --> 0:30:45.960 models that you could do, because he's such a distraction. 0:30:46.080 --> 0:30:49.240 He's in over his head so much that I just 0:30:49.240 --> 0:30:51.600 think you can never back them. At the same time, look, 0:30:51.640 --> 0:30:54.640 we probably watched that game a little closer than most 0:30:54.640 --> 0:30:58.080 people just because it was the Jets and the Titans 0:30:58.160 --> 0:31:01.160 just they've got Derrick Henry and they really have nothing 0:31:01.200 --> 0:31:03.880 else to rely on when those two receivers are out, 0:31:04.080 --> 0:31:06.640 assuming they're out again. If I had to pick a side, 0:31:06.680 --> 0:31:08.360 I guess I would go with the Titans, but I 0:31:08.600 --> 0:31:10.440 don't want to, so I am staying away. You're right 0:31:10.480 --> 0:31:12.880 also with the Total, because again, you know, I imagine that 0:31:13.160 --> 0:31:16.040 the Titans will try to, you know, run Derek Henry 0:31:16.040 --> 0:31:17.600 as much as possible, and that usually. 0:31:17.440 --> 0:31:20.280 Again, but look, Trevor Lawrence can make plays, and that's 0:31:20.320 --> 0:31:22.600 better thing you can't. You know, Trevor Lawrence is going 0:31:22.640 --> 0:31:24.880 to get better as the season goes on. His ability 0:31:24.880 --> 0:31:27.920 to make plays. Should were you I think about this total? 0:31:28.280 --> 0:31:31.600 Yeah, how about the Eagles are visiting the Panthers. The 0:31:31.640 --> 0:31:34.760 Panthers are laying four total forty four and a half. 0:31:35.600 --> 0:31:38.760 Ah the Eagles, Oh, who are the Eagles? This is 0:31:38.800 --> 0:31:40.960 a This is a tricky one here. I will say this. 0:31:41.160 --> 0:31:43.600 We talked at length this week about, you know, the 0:31:43.840 --> 0:31:47.640 test of the Panthers defense coming up against a really 0:31:47.680 --> 0:31:51.040 good Cowboys team this week offensively, and you know, and 0:31:51.120 --> 0:31:54.680 we got checked a little bit here. That being said, Panthers, 0:31:54.720 --> 0:31:57.280 I think get back to business at home. I like 0:31:57.360 --> 0:31:58.920 the Panthers in this game. I like them on the 0:31:58.920 --> 0:32:01.320 three and a half. I just don't like the Eagles 0:32:01.360 --> 0:32:06.280 game plans. I just don't like the Eagles. The Eagles 0:32:06.360 --> 0:32:09.320 deficits didn't just vanish with Carson Wentz. They still have 0:32:09.400 --> 0:32:11.400 offensive line problems. You knew that was going to be 0:32:11.480 --> 0:32:14.800 going in. They still finding their identity on offense. It's 0:32:14.920 --> 0:32:16.960 nice to see like a Kenneth Gainwell starting to get 0:32:17.000 --> 0:32:18.640 some more play in this offense like he did in 0:32:18.640 --> 0:32:20.520 Week one. I think they're a better team when they 0:32:20.520 --> 0:32:22.920 do that, when they get Kenneth Gainwell involved. The problem 0:32:22.960 --> 0:32:25.560 is sometimes they way too long. Their inability run the 0:32:25.560 --> 0:32:27.480 football is a problem. I think Arnold's just playing really 0:32:27.480 --> 0:32:29.760 good football right now, So I would just go right 0:32:29.760 --> 0:32:31.160 with the three and a half here, keep it simple. 0:32:31.160 --> 0:32:33.240 With the Panthers, I do think they win this game. 0:32:33.320 --> 0:32:35.760 I think defensively, they bounce back after a rough week 0:32:35.840 --> 0:32:39.080 last week. Jalen Hurts not nearly the same kind of 0:32:39.120 --> 0:32:42.240 competition as Dak Prescott in terms of playing quarterbacks. So 0:32:42.480 --> 0:32:44.240 I'll go with the Panthers in this one at home 0:32:44.280 --> 0:32:45.040 with a three and a half. 0:32:45.600 --> 0:32:48.240 Yeah, I think I might have a blind spot Joe 0:32:48.440 --> 0:32:51.440 with the Eagles. I really do. And maybe it stems 0:32:51.440 --> 0:32:54.520 from the fact that we obviously do fantasy and I 0:32:54.600 --> 0:32:57.680 had projections for what I saw for the Eagles offense, 0:32:57.720 --> 0:32:59.880 and then that Week one game, it's sort of all 0:33:00.040 --> 0:33:03.240 came to fruition against an admittedly very weak Atlanta team, 0:33:03.280 --> 0:33:05.840 and I feel like I still cling to that. Again, 0:33:05.880 --> 0:33:07.480 I one of my picks for one of my best 0:33:07.480 --> 0:33:10.080 bets was a couple of weeks ago was the Eagles 0:33:10.080 --> 0:33:12.880 on Monday Night Football going to the Cowboys, and I 0:33:12.920 --> 0:33:15.640 thought they played better, you know, even though they obviously 0:33:15.640 --> 0:33:17.960 had some unexpected offensive line issues coming to the week. 0:33:18.520 --> 0:33:22.520 I actually I lean a little bit towards the Eagles 0:33:22.560 --> 0:33:24.320 in this game. It's not a game that I want 0:33:24.360 --> 0:33:27.600 to bet necessarily, just because again, I think without Christian McCaffrey, 0:33:27.640 --> 0:33:29.640 I think that offense and I expect them to be 0:33:29.640 --> 0:33:32.200 out in this game as well. Again nothing confirmed yet, 0:33:32.280 --> 0:33:33.600 but I expect them to be out. I think that 0:33:33.640 --> 0:33:36.160 offense really misses him, even though they were able to, 0:33:36.280 --> 0:33:38.760 you know, sort of hang with Dallas. I mean it 0:33:38.800 --> 0:33:40.560 took a while, but I think their defense again without 0:33:40.600 --> 0:33:44.280 j C. Horn, I think that really affects them. To me, actually, Joe, 0:33:44.400 --> 0:33:46.760 I do kind of lean me over in this game 0:33:46.800 --> 0:33:49.479 here because I do think that at the very least, 0:33:49.640 --> 0:33:52.800 you saw an admittedly weak defense here against Kansas City. 0:33:52.800 --> 0:33:55.160 But I think even if the Panthers sort of are 0:33:55.200 --> 0:33:56.520 able to put up points, which I think you have 0:33:56.560 --> 0:33:59.160 to expect at this point because the offense is working 0:33:59.240 --> 0:34:01.880 right now, at the very least, if they get blown 0:34:01.880 --> 0:34:03.640 out the Eagles, they're going to be able to put 0:34:03.680 --> 0:34:05.040 up points sort of at the end of the game. 0:34:05.040 --> 0:34:06.960 You saw it against the Cowboys, just because you know, 0:34:07.040 --> 0:34:08.880 Jalen Hurts can run around like a chicken with his 0:34:08.920 --> 0:34:11.600 head cut off at this point, and they can again, 0:34:11.640 --> 0:34:13.920 they can they can move the ball when they absolutely 0:34:13.920 --> 0:34:16.560 need to. So at forty four and a half, that 0:34:16.640 --> 0:34:18.759 strikes me as something where you know, I could see 0:34:18.760 --> 0:34:19.839 this being a you know. 0:34:22.040 --> 0:34:24.480 Yeah, even that number pretty easily. 0:34:24.800 --> 0:34:27.040 So to me, I go over here. I'd like to 0:34:27.040 --> 0:34:29.120 take that. The spread is something where I lean the Eagles, 0:34:29.160 --> 0:34:31.160 but it's also something where I probably stay away from. 0:34:31.560 --> 0:34:36.000 The Patriots are visiting the Texans. The total is well 0:34:36.000 --> 0:34:38.440 for we'll get this out a second. The Patriots are 0:34:38.480 --> 0:34:43.160 laying nine points and the total is thirty nine right 0:34:43.160 --> 0:34:45.520 here or thirty nine and a half. Actually, what do 0:34:45.560 --> 0:34:46.600 you think, Joe. 0:34:48.120 --> 0:34:51.080 I think the Patriots win this football game? Vegas does 0:34:51.080 --> 0:34:53.319 to the confident the Patriots win this football for how 0:34:53.320 --> 0:34:55.640 they win this football game, I don't. I'm hoping that, 0:34:56.280 --> 0:34:57.880 you know, and I think it should. I think there 0:34:57.880 --> 0:34:59.759 should be a lot of confidence for HEC Jones in 0:34:59.800 --> 0:35:04.000 that loss. We talk about sometimes taking losses as actual 0:35:04.360 --> 0:35:07.480 moments were a loss in a certain way with a 0:35:07.520 --> 0:35:10.799 certain performance kind of tells you a lot about the player, 0:35:10.840 --> 0:35:12.520 and I think we learned a lot about mac Jones 0:35:12.560 --> 0:35:15.880 in terms of where he's at in his development. I 0:35:15.880 --> 0:35:18.080 think they should be more aggressive down the field. And 0:35:18.160 --> 0:35:20.759 what's ironic to me, the same thing that plagues the 0:35:20.800 --> 0:35:23.439 mac Jones and the Patriots offense is the same thing 0:35:23.520 --> 0:35:26.280 that plagues Tom Brady in that offense before he left, 0:35:26.640 --> 0:35:29.880 the lack of playmakers, the lack of that alpha wide 0:35:29.920 --> 0:35:31.719 receiver kind of guy that you can rely on in 0:35:31.760 --> 0:35:34.319 those big spots. Not having that guy that the other 0:35:34.440 --> 0:35:37.960 defense has to account for is what makes the Patriots 0:35:38.080 --> 0:35:41.080 offense so middling at times. Now that being said, the 0:35:41.120 --> 0:35:44.480 Patriots defense is playing very well right now, So I 0:35:44.480 --> 0:35:47.680 think Houston's infer this is gonna be a rough stretch here. 0:35:48.000 --> 0:35:50.480 Houston had to play Buffalo in Buffalo last week. Now 0:35:50.480 --> 0:35:53.600 that you have to play the Patriots, I mean, Patriots 0:35:53.640 --> 0:35:56.040 win this football game. I am not comfortable with the 0:35:56.160 --> 0:35:58.800 nine and I mean thirty nine and a half sounds 0:35:58.800 --> 0:36:00.640 like a joke where he got it just go over, 0:36:01.280 --> 0:36:03.440 you would think so. But I gotta tell you this 0:36:03.480 --> 0:36:05.440 feels like a huge trap. This whole game for me, 0:36:05.520 --> 0:36:07.239 is a giant stay away unless you're gonna put the 0:36:07.280 --> 0:36:09.879 Patriots in a parlay where you're gonna take like an 0:36:09.880 --> 0:36:12.839 easy Patriot win and easy win somewhere else and then 0:36:12.880 --> 0:36:15.000 take an upset and put three things together and maybe 0:36:15.000 --> 0:36:16.799 make some money that way. That's the only way I'm 0:36:16.800 --> 0:36:17.880 getting involved in this one. 0:36:17.960 --> 0:36:19.680 I think I'm on to lay the nine. I'm not 0:36:19.800 --> 0:36:21.399 like to me, I think that's a. 0:36:21.360 --> 0:36:23.360 Lot for a lack of Juggernaut offense. 0:36:23.640 --> 0:36:27.400 It's a lot. It is a lot. I fail to 0:36:27.520 --> 0:36:30.880 see how the Texans can stop anybody right now. I 0:36:30.960 --> 0:36:33.640 think that if the Patriots want, they can run Damien 0:36:33.680 --> 0:36:37.120 Harris thirty five times and they can put up twenty 0:36:37.160 --> 0:36:39.440 eight points that way, Like, I realistically I think that. 0:36:39.520 --> 0:36:41.680 But yeah, Mac Jones was impressive. You do have I 0:36:41.719 --> 0:36:44.040 think the potential for a letdown game here, right, Joe, Like, 0:36:44.360 --> 0:36:47.040 because even though they lost, they played their butts off 0:36:47.040 --> 0:36:47.480 in that game. 0:36:47.560 --> 0:36:49.640 Really, I think it's more potential for a letdown for 0:36:49.680 --> 0:36:50.920 the Bucks than for the Patriot. 0:36:51.120 --> 0:36:52.160 I think that's also true. 0:36:52.200 --> 0:36:54.680 I think the Patriots actually left that game going. We 0:36:54.680 --> 0:36:57.279 were this close. We were just close to the defending chance. 0:36:57.280 --> 0:36:59.279 It's the same time, though, you put in that much 0:36:59.280 --> 0:37:01.440 of an effort into what is an emotional game and 0:37:01.480 --> 0:37:03.759 you come that close, even a loss is still a 0:37:03.840 --> 0:37:06.359 letdown game. But certainly for the Bucks for sure, you 0:37:06.360 --> 0:37:08.960 can have that possibility. But it's possible for the Patriots. 0:37:08.960 --> 0:37:10.719 But either way, man, first of all, a total with 0:37:10.800 --> 0:37:12.600 the Texans. I don't care what it is like I'm 0:37:12.600 --> 0:37:15.480 staying away from it just because again, they could very 0:37:15.480 --> 0:37:18.040 easily get shut out at any given point. But the 0:37:18.080 --> 0:37:21.320 bottom line is, I think that that Patriots defense is legitimate. 0:37:21.320 --> 0:37:25.719 I've thought this for a while, So they could potentially 0:37:26.239 --> 0:37:28.400 pitch a shut out here, you know, like well, I. 0:37:28.400 --> 0:37:30.759 Think the turnover on defense or a pick six, that's 0:37:30.960 --> 0:37:31.400 where you hit. 0:37:31.880 --> 0:37:33.840 I'm not worried about a backdoor cover here because I 0:37:33.880 --> 0:37:36.080 don't trust the Texans to be able to move the 0:37:36.120 --> 0:37:38.839 ball enough to score to get that back door cover. 0:37:39.000 --> 0:37:42.000 So if it's under ten, I'm not kidding. I'm fine 0:37:42.040 --> 0:37:44.560 taking this game. I realize it sounds ludicrous because it's 0:37:44.560 --> 0:37:47.960 a Patriots laying nine points, which really, you know, they 0:37:47.960 --> 0:37:49.520 don't have the horses to They don't. 0:37:49.560 --> 0:37:51.600 They don't have the horses for that right, I don't care, man, 0:37:51.680 --> 0:37:54.840 But the defense does. And if you anticipate them getting 0:37:54.880 --> 0:37:57.880 and if you believe that they score on defense in 0:37:57.960 --> 0:38:00.560 this game, which is very very possible, and the nine 0:38:00.640 --> 0:38:02.600 is very comfortable when it starts, I'm taking it could 0:38:02.600 --> 0:38:05.200 probably be eleven by the time I'm taking it. 0:38:05.239 --> 0:38:07.239 Now, that's correct. That's a good point, Joe. That's just 0:38:07.239 --> 0:38:08.680 part of what we do we're looking at I'm taking 0:38:08.680 --> 0:38:11.680 it now like I'm taking now. I'm not waiting for 0:38:11.760 --> 0:38:14.640 anybody to sort of see where it goes. I'm taking 0:38:14.680 --> 0:38:16.359 it now before it moves. Let's get to our next 0:38:16.400 --> 0:38:18.799 game here, Joe, we can talk about the Lions are 0:38:18.880 --> 0:38:21.879 visiting the Vikings. Vikings are seven and a half point 0:38:21.920 --> 0:38:24.200 favorites here and the totals forty nine and a half. 0:38:25.280 --> 0:38:28.600 Ah, the Vikings another tough one here. It's funny because 0:38:28.640 --> 0:38:30.360 you know, you and I always talked about the Baseball 0:38:30.400 --> 0:38:33.439 four outcome games. This past week when I had Chris 0:38:33.480 --> 0:38:36.520 Meety on the show for DFS, we ran away from 0:38:36.520 --> 0:38:39.839 this game between the Cleveland Browns and the Vikings last 0:38:39.840 --> 0:38:42.000 week because we said, this is four outcomes written all over. 0:38:42.080 --> 0:38:43.400 This could be a blow out on either side or 0:38:43.440 --> 0:38:46.759 disgusting like you know, sixteen thirteen kind of slugfests, whatever, 0:38:46.800 --> 0:38:49.239 and it's very closer to that. We're all a said 0:38:49.280 --> 0:38:53.440 and done. The Vikings at home. They desperately need a 0:38:53.560 --> 0:38:56.680 W here in the worst way. Ye Sometimes it's just 0:38:56.719 --> 0:38:59.000 as simple as looking for the team that needs the W. 0:38:59.480 --> 0:39:03.480 That being said, what gives you pause is Detroit doesn't quit. 0:39:04.840 --> 0:39:07.560 In the past, we've seen Detroit quit a lot. I 0:39:07.600 --> 0:39:09.560 think Minnesota wins this football game, but I would like 0:39:09.560 --> 0:39:11.359 the Detroit side of the plus seven and a half. 0:39:11.440 --> 0:39:13.560 I think that's a big number right now. I think 0:39:13.600 --> 0:39:15.399 that's a number it's gonna shrink to seven or even 0:39:15.440 --> 0:39:16.960 six and a half by the time we get closer 0:39:17.000 --> 0:39:21.839 potentially too. I just feel like the Lions, whether you know, 0:39:22.480 --> 0:39:25.120 they can't stack up talent wise to most teams, but 0:39:25.239 --> 0:39:27.520 the effort level is undeniable when you watch them play. 0:39:27.960 --> 0:39:30.360 They spread the ball around a little bit. You know, 0:39:30.520 --> 0:39:32.839 Khalif Raymond's played well, quind De Ciphas has played well. 0:39:32.880 --> 0:39:34.960 Monros Saint Brown had a very good game. You know, 0:39:35.200 --> 0:39:38.040 they're starting to kind of figure it out a little bit. Offensively, 0:39:39.080 --> 0:39:41.440 disappointing game for them, no doubt they're gonna have a 0:39:41.480 --> 0:39:43.440 lot of disappointments. But seven and a half is a 0:39:43.520 --> 0:39:47.160 very big number for a Minnesota Vikings defense that ever 0:39:47.200 --> 0:39:51.360 since the preseason, really hasn't blown the doors off anybody 0:39:51.480 --> 0:39:53.840 and shown you that they are getting back to what 0:39:53.840 --> 0:39:55.359 they were a couple of years ago. So I would 0:39:55.360 --> 0:39:56.759 take the Lions and the seven and a half in 0:39:56.800 --> 0:39:59.399 this one. I still think Minnesota wins his football game, 0:39:59.440 --> 0:40:00.839 but I think seven and a half is too much. 0:40:01.200 --> 0:40:05.360 If forced to pick aside, I would take the Lions 0:40:05.520 --> 0:40:07.520 with the hook because I just think that it has 0:40:07.560 --> 0:40:09.920 back to recover written all over it. But it's just 0:40:09.920 --> 0:40:13.160 a stay away from me man like because realistically, the 0:40:13.239 --> 0:40:16.320 Vikings should be able to win this game pretty handily. 0:40:16.360 --> 0:40:18.480 But like you mentioned, and there's something to be said, 0:40:18.600 --> 0:40:21.520 the Lions don't quit ever, and so you know, kudos 0:40:21.560 --> 0:40:23.840 to Dan Campbell, who we all made fun of a lot. 0:40:24.239 --> 0:40:25.920 But it's just to stay away from me. A divisional 0:40:25.960 --> 0:40:29.040 game where the Vikings are desperate, but the Lions don't quit. 0:40:29.239 --> 0:40:31.400 Totals total, stay away from me. Not a game I 0:40:31.400 --> 0:40:33.800 want to touch. Nor is this one, Joe. The Bears 0:40:33.800 --> 0:40:36.000 are visiting the Raiders. It's a dead number where the 0:40:36.040 --> 0:40:38.640 Raiders are laying five and a half. The totals forty 0:40:38.640 --> 0:40:40.640 five and a half. You obviously have the Raiders coming 0:40:40.640 --> 0:40:42.879 off the short week. Dave Montgomery's going to be out 0:40:42.920 --> 0:40:44.680 for four to six weeks. That just came across the 0:40:44.680 --> 0:40:47.120 wire as we were recording this, so he's obviously not 0:40:47.120 --> 0:40:48.640 going to play in this game. We don't know who 0:40:48.640 --> 0:40:50.120 the quarterback is going to be in this game for 0:40:50.160 --> 0:40:52.200 the Bears. So this is not something where I want 0:40:52.200 --> 0:40:54.040 to lock in value right now. I don't think Vegas 0:40:54.040 --> 0:40:55.560 knows what to do with this. I don't know what 0:40:55.640 --> 0:40:57.480 to do with this. It's a complete stay away for me. 0:40:57.520 --> 0:40:59.560 What do you think run away right? 0:41:00.440 --> 0:41:04.839 For outcomes written all over this bad boy? Too many variables. 0:41:05.160 --> 0:41:08.080 Variables do not make for a good investment. You've got 0:41:08.120 --> 0:41:10.560 lots of other games. Let this one go away. 0:41:11.000 --> 0:41:14.120 I agree, Let's just move on Brown's visiting the Chargers. 0:41:14.480 --> 0:41:18.319 The Chargers are the Browns, I'm sorry, are laying one point. 0:41:18.320 --> 0:41:21.960 Although it's back and forth here between you know, not 0:41:22.000 --> 0:41:24.320 that it really matters, but in some books the Chargers 0:41:24.360 --> 0:41:26.680 are laying a point. In other books, the Browns are 0:41:26.760 --> 0:41:29.279 laying a point. Right now, our consensus line is the 0:41:29.320 --> 0:41:32.520 Browns laying a point and the total is forty nine 0:41:32.520 --> 0:41:32.879 and a half. 0:41:32.920 --> 0:41:35.520 What do you think I'm going to lean towards the 0:41:35.600 --> 0:41:36.160 Chargers here? 0:41:36.280 --> 0:41:36.440 Yeah? 0:41:36.440 --> 0:41:38.520 I like what I've seen out of Herbert this year, 0:41:38.600 --> 0:41:40.839 and look, the Browns are a very good football team. 0:41:41.160 --> 0:41:43.239 But you know, this is back to back road games 0:41:43.239 --> 0:41:46.640 for them. That's a little tough. I think that the 0:41:47.480 --> 0:41:50.880 way justin Herbert's played this year is super impressive. The 0:41:50.960 --> 0:41:53.839 defenses played well. It was a big game for them, 0:41:53.880 --> 0:41:57.279 big victory. This is going to be a close one, 0:41:57.360 --> 0:41:59.360 and Vegas is telling it's gonna be a close one. 0:41:59.480 --> 0:42:02.319 I'm gonna in towards the Chargers here once again. This 0:42:02.440 --> 0:42:05.520 is one where you can put it. I'd rather take 0:42:05.520 --> 0:42:07.160 the Chargers on the money line and just not even 0:42:07.160 --> 0:42:09.600 worry about the points or the points are small anyway. 0:42:10.360 --> 0:42:12.520 But if you want to do either one and put 0:42:12.560 --> 0:42:14.000 it in with something else, I don't think you just 0:42:14.000 --> 0:42:16.720 met this standing alone because it just doesn't have enough value. 0:42:16.760 --> 0:42:17.800 So what you want to do is you want to 0:42:17.840 --> 0:42:20.279 put this if you feel good about the Chargers, you 0:42:20.400 --> 0:42:23.120 take the one. If you're getting it, whatever you're getting 0:42:23.239 --> 0:42:25.399 right now on FANDUL, you're getting plus one. I would 0:42:25.440 --> 0:42:28.000 take the plus one there at the minus one p. Fifteen, 0:42:28.160 --> 0:42:30.160 and I would put that in with something else here 0:42:30.400 --> 0:42:32.319 and then just continue to build from there into like 0:42:32.400 --> 0:42:35.440 a couple games together. But I don't know, Dan, I mean, 0:42:35.640 --> 0:42:37.799 I'm very impressed with the Browns, but I think it's 0:42:37.840 --> 0:42:40.080 asking a lot of them to continue to be the 0:42:40.160 --> 0:42:42.480 road warriors here, you know, going to Minnesota one week 0:42:42.520 --> 0:42:44.560 and then having to turn right back around and going 0:42:44.560 --> 0:42:46.360 to LA the next I think that's a lot. 0:42:46.680 --> 0:42:48.800 Yeah, I was really impressed with the Chargers, and I 0:42:48.880 --> 0:42:52.440 think that like this is the Chargers, Joe, that I 0:42:52.440 --> 0:42:55.759 felt like every preseason coming in, every year, we were like, 0:42:55.840 --> 0:42:58.839 you know, Chargers could do this. Chargers could be really good. 0:42:58.880 --> 0:43:01.239 They have a very solid deep, the offensive line is good, 0:43:01.239 --> 0:43:03.320 They've got a lot of pieces, and it's like the 0:43:03.800 --> 0:43:06.319 optimal point of where they are. They're well coached now. 0:43:06.600 --> 0:43:08.920 So if I lean one way, it's basically a pick 0:43:08.960 --> 0:43:11.240 them essentially. At this point, I would lean the Chargers. 0:43:11.280 --> 0:43:13.759 But really, Joe, actually the way I lean is the 0:43:13.880 --> 0:43:16.480 under here. It's forty nine and a half. The Browns 0:43:16.560 --> 0:43:19.840 defense is so good. Like I know, last week was 0:43:19.880 --> 0:43:23.160 a big disappointment from a fantasy perspective. Whatever from Kirk Cousins, 0:43:23.200 --> 0:43:25.160 I actually thought that the Vikings would pull that game out. 0:43:25.200 --> 0:43:27.560 They were getting I don't know, two points, I think 0:43:27.560 --> 0:43:29.520 two and a half points. I thought the Vikings might 0:43:29.560 --> 0:43:31.480 be able to pull that game out. But for me, 0:43:31.800 --> 0:43:34.839 I think their defense is so solid that even an 0:43:34.880 --> 0:43:36.920 explosive offense like the Charters, I think they're going to 0:43:37.000 --> 0:43:40.239 be able to hang with them. And conversely, not only 0:43:40.320 --> 0:43:44.080 is the Charters defense very good, but the Browns offensively 0:43:44.200 --> 0:43:47.640 look a little kind of like we have the run 0:43:47.680 --> 0:43:50.040 game that is what is going to work. Maybe it 0:43:50.120 --> 0:43:52.000 was just last week. That's the worst game I've ever 0:43:52.040 --> 0:43:54.560 seen Baker Mayfield play in my life like he was. 0:43:54.840 --> 0:43:58.279 And this is Baker. Baker is good, forever inconsistent, And 0:43:58.320 --> 0:44:00.840 which is why I you're gonna laugh when I say this, 0:44:00.880 --> 0:44:02.880 because you're gonna say that's just Joe saying Chubb's not 0:44:02.920 --> 0:44:05.719 getting Chubb's not getting enough work, like Chubbs should be 0:44:06.000 --> 0:44:09.000 touching the football more. I think they got into two 0:44:09.040 --> 0:44:11.360 weeks ago, gotten to that little groove there with Kareem Hunt, 0:44:11.680 --> 0:44:13.360 and they started to love Kareem Hunt because that was 0:44:13.360 --> 0:44:16.759 a perfect matchup for Kareem Hunt against that defense. They 0:44:16.800 --> 0:44:18.400 should have gotten away from it in this game. They 0:44:18.440 --> 0:44:20.680 should have been feeding the ball to Nick Chubb Moore. 0:44:20.760 --> 0:44:22.839 I think if they feed the ball more than Nick Chubb, 0:44:22.840 --> 0:44:24.439 they have a real chance to win this football game 0:44:24.440 --> 0:44:27.680 in this one, because Herbert's just playing really good football 0:44:27.760 --> 0:44:30.919 right now. I don't know if they're gonna do that there. 0:44:31.120 --> 0:44:34.319 I think they're forgetting what made them so successful last year, 0:44:34.320 --> 0:44:37.200 which is running that play action off of Baker Mayfield 0:44:37.239 --> 0:44:39.440 and Nick Chubb. And if Nick Chubb is only getting 0:44:39.440 --> 0:44:41.880 fifteen carries instead of twenty two carries, it's a big difference. 0:44:42.120 --> 0:44:43.719 The defense doesn't commit as much. 0:44:44.200 --> 0:44:47.040 Yeah, so if you are, if you don't follow us 0:44:47.040 --> 0:44:50.160 at Fantasy Bros, you should be aware that Joe is 0:44:50.239 --> 0:44:53.040 Nick Chubb's biggest fan. And if Joe, if Joe were 0:44:53.080 --> 0:44:55.279 the if Joe was the Browns coach, Nick Chubb would 0:44:55.280 --> 0:44:57.400 get forty carries a week, just so you know, it 0:44:57.400 --> 0:44:59.560 would be that and then like one play action pass 0:45:00.120 --> 0:45:03.319 club Chubb Club that is Joe. I also think, by 0:45:03.320 --> 0:45:05.759 the way, that the loss of Jarvis Landry, who you 0:45:05.760 --> 0:45:08.160 know is going to be out again this week, is 0:45:08.440 --> 0:45:10.600 a big deal. That's sort of a safety blanket there 0:45:11.040 --> 0:45:14.040 or so to me, I lean the under man. I 0:45:14.080 --> 0:45:16.160 get that, you know, I think two really good defenses. 0:45:16.200 --> 0:45:18.239 I could see that Chargers being a little sluggish on 0:45:18.280 --> 0:45:20.680 the short week. I don't think that the Browns want 0:45:20.719 --> 0:45:22.880 to get too shoot out anyway, So I lean towards 0:45:22.920 --> 0:45:25.320 the under This is a game, Joe, so many variables. 0:45:25.480 --> 0:45:27.440 I don't want to do the app the only unbeaten 0:45:27.480 --> 0:45:30.520 team here, the Cardinals at home against the forty nine ers, 0:45:30.840 --> 0:45:35.000 laying five and a half points, the total is fifty. Look, 0:45:35.080 --> 0:45:36.239 we don't even know if it's going to be Trey 0:45:36.320 --> 0:45:38.000 Lance at this point, right because suddenly it's come out 0:45:38.000 --> 0:45:39.440 to be like, oh, there's a Bruce for Jimmy. He 0:45:39.480 --> 0:45:41.480 may play Corross knows what's going on here. What do 0:45:41.520 --> 0:45:41.839 you think? 0:45:42.400 --> 0:45:44.640 I think they should play Trey Lance. That's what I think. 0:45:44.719 --> 0:45:45.560 Yeah, of course. 0:45:45.760 --> 0:45:48.839 That being said, I like the Cardinals in this game. 0:45:49.200 --> 0:45:51.360 I am not impressed by the forty nine Ers this 0:45:51.440 --> 0:45:54.480 year at all. I'm just not. And the one thing 0:45:54.480 --> 0:45:57.000 I will say it's, you know, in this league, especially 0:45:57.040 --> 0:45:59.520 when you have a quarterback that's locked in, it makes 0:45:59.560 --> 0:46:01.440 all the differ. Friends, and Kyler Murray right now is 0:46:01.560 --> 0:46:04.120 locked in. Like Kyler Murray's playing the best football he 0:46:04.120 --> 0:46:07.560 has ever played, and the fact that they surrounded him 0:46:07.560 --> 0:46:10.120 with similar weapons besides Hopkins make them a lot harder. 0:46:10.239 --> 0:46:12.160 I was really impressed with Chase Edmonds in that game too. 0:46:12.160 --> 0:46:14.600 I've never been a big Edmunds guy, but he ran 0:46:14.800 --> 0:46:17.759 hard in that game last week. I mean physical hard, 0:46:17.800 --> 0:46:20.120 and that's not usually like the Chase Edmunds game as 0:46:20.160 --> 0:46:22.160 We're like, yeah, let's get him out in space a 0:46:22.160 --> 0:46:24.560 little bit, and you know, let's get him out wide. No, no, no, 0:46:25.000 --> 0:46:27.399 he was running hard in that game, knocking guys over, 0:46:27.480 --> 0:46:29.760 and that's that's a new dynamic. And then he adding Connor, 0:46:29.760 --> 0:46:31.440 who's a physical back, and the goal line in the 0:46:31.440 --> 0:46:34.880 short yard situations. Arizona all of a sudden can beat 0:46:34.920 --> 0:46:37.480 you in lots of different ways. They still defensively have 0:46:37.600 --> 0:46:41.400 some hiccups there to clean up, but overall, you know, 0:46:41.560 --> 0:46:44.799 right now, I think Arizona is the real deal. And 0:46:44.880 --> 0:46:46.719 it's not just because they beat the Rams last week. 0:46:46.760 --> 0:46:49.200 It's because of the way they've played all year so far, 0:46:50.440 --> 0:46:53.680 and because the forty nine ers continue to struggle with 0:46:53.719 --> 0:46:56.160 the identity who's quarterback, who's running back, who's this? Who 0:46:56.160 --> 0:46:56.359 is that? 0:46:56.400 --> 0:46:57.120 I don't like that. 0:46:57.360 --> 0:46:59.040 I'm gonna lean towards the Cardinals. I know it's a 0:46:59.040 --> 0:47:01.000 big number, with the five and a half half typically, 0:47:01.920 --> 0:47:05.080 you know, I think that should give people pause. I'll 0:47:05.160 --> 0:47:07.200 say this, if Trey Lance is playing in this game, 0:47:07.200 --> 0:47:09.279 I would take the points with the forty nine ers. 0:47:09.520 --> 0:47:11.840 If he is not, I would take the Cardinals and 0:47:11.880 --> 0:47:12.640 the points on the other side. 0:47:12.680 --> 0:47:15.520 So you're waiting basically in the end to make any Oh. 0:47:15.480 --> 0:47:18.200 Gosh, she's gonna stink because this line's gonna change, right. 0:47:18.600 --> 0:47:21.680 Yeah, A stay away from me man on all sides, 0:47:21.760 --> 0:47:24.719 just because again there're too many things. And look, you know, 0:47:25.000 --> 0:47:27.480 one of my favorite bets that I made this year, 0:47:27.480 --> 0:47:29.960 even though it was discussing, was the Vikings when they 0:47:30.000 --> 0:47:31.680 were I forget how many points the were getting, maybe 0:47:31.719 --> 0:47:33.160 five and a half or whatever, four and a half 0:47:33.280 --> 0:47:35.160 against the Cardinals, because I did think that that was 0:47:35.200 --> 0:47:37.760 a game that they would stay close. And this strikes 0:47:37.800 --> 0:47:39.440 me as that type of game too. And again I 0:47:39.480 --> 0:47:41.840 can't bet it here with the forty nine ers because 0:47:42.280 --> 0:47:44.000 I just don't know who's a quarterback and I don't 0:47:44.040 --> 0:47:45.399 know what's going on in that game. I also can't 0:47:45.440 --> 0:47:47.480 bet the total for now. I don't know though how 0:47:47.520 --> 0:47:49.600 I feel about it. I'm not taking the Cardinals because 0:47:49.640 --> 0:47:51.440 I do think that the Cardinals, as good as they 0:47:51.480 --> 0:47:55.000 look at various times, they're gonna throw out these games 0:47:55.040 --> 0:47:58.279 like against the Vikings, where they're just not gonna be 0:47:58.280 --> 0:48:00.759 able to put a team away and keep it close. 0:48:00.840 --> 0:48:02.160 So this is just to stay away from me in 0:48:02.200 --> 0:48:04.040 a divisional game. But it's one I'm going to be 0:48:04.040 --> 0:48:06.359 excited to watch. I hope it's Trey Lance. Another one 0:48:06.400 --> 0:48:07.840 I'm actually going to be excited to watch, which I 0:48:07.880 --> 0:48:10.040 didn't think I would even though it's so cool, is 0:48:10.280 --> 0:48:13.720 the Giants visiting the Cowboys. Here, the Cowboys are laying seven. 0:48:14.000 --> 0:48:17.680 The total is fifty to Daniel Jones playing by far 0:48:17.719 --> 0:48:19.920 the best football he's ever played in his career. Cowboys 0:48:19.960 --> 0:48:22.359 looking a little bit like the Juggernaut that we thought 0:48:22.400 --> 0:48:24.440 they might be able to look like if everything went right. 0:48:24.440 --> 0:48:25.080 What do you think here? 0:48:25.840 --> 0:48:30.440 Cowboys is smash ooh, smash this game they are. Cowboys 0:48:30.440 --> 0:48:34.960 are just significantly better personnel wise than the Giants. And 0:48:35.520 --> 0:48:38.720 typically I wouldn't do this because typically in division games 0:48:38.719 --> 0:48:41.960 get very dicey, especially old rivalry games, they get very tight, 0:48:42.400 --> 0:48:47.160 you know. But I'm in a long conversation again. On 0:48:47.200 --> 0:48:50.640 the IDP Show last week, the other defense we talked 0:48:50.640 --> 0:48:54.360 about was the Cowboys and the difference that Michael Parsons 0:48:54.360 --> 0:48:58.200 makes that what Diggs is doing right now, but it's 0:48:58.280 --> 0:49:01.120 really what Parsons is doing, because what Parsons does is 0:49:01.160 --> 0:49:03.640 he just kind of wrecks everything. So even though it's 0:49:03.680 --> 0:49:07.520 not showing up necessarily in the tackle numbers all the time. Yeah, 0:49:07.520 --> 0:49:09.799 when you watch him play, he's everywhere in the right 0:49:09.840 --> 0:49:12.040 place and he's shutting other things down because he's such 0:49:12.040 --> 0:49:15.239 a fast linebacker. It's like when you watch Devin White 0:49:15.239 --> 0:49:16.839 sometimes too. He's just always in the right place at 0:49:16.840 --> 0:49:18.920 the right time. And for a young kid to have 0:49:19.000 --> 0:49:20.840 that kind of instincts is just huge. And him and 0:49:20.880 --> 0:49:23.799 Vandersh together right now are playing really well. So for me, 0:49:24.320 --> 0:49:26.440 I think that's just a lot for Daniel Jones, who 0:49:26.520 --> 0:49:30.440 has been very mistake prone. They're down to wide receivers. 0:49:30.480 --> 0:49:32.319 I don't think they're gonna get either of them back 0:49:32.360 --> 0:49:35.520 this week. I don't thinks Tony is enough to kind 0:49:35.520 --> 0:49:39.120 of make up that deficit necessarily. I think they put 0:49:39.120 --> 0:49:40.799 a hurtin on the Giants. I think this is a 0:49:40.800 --> 0:49:43.080 statement game for the Cowboys. I think this is gonna 0:49:43.080 --> 0:49:45.160 be a bad scene and Giant fans are gonna feel like, hey, 0:49:45.200 --> 0:49:47.520 we're going there with some momentum and the Cowboys are 0:49:47.560 --> 0:49:50.040 just going to shut it down. So I know it's seven, 0:49:50.320 --> 0:49:52.680 I would take the seven right now because I fear 0:49:52.719 --> 0:49:54.359 it could be nine by the time we get there. 0:49:54.640 --> 0:49:57.799 Oh my gosh. Okay, all right, so I do not 0:49:57.920 --> 0:50:01.960 feel nearly as confident as you do. Look very easily, 0:50:02.040 --> 0:50:04.680 I could see the Cowboys destroying them in this game. 0:50:04.719 --> 0:50:07.319 And I think that without Shepherd and without Slayton as 0:50:07.360 --> 0:50:09.920 I expect again in this game, I think that's really dicey, 0:50:10.000 --> 0:50:12.840 because I do think that Trayvon Diggs is playing what 0:50:13.200 --> 0:50:14.279 as well as anybody. 0:50:14.000 --> 0:50:18.520 Else, has been out of his mind. But absolutely, once again, 0:50:18.640 --> 0:50:22.520 it's a complete package, and dan Quinn's done a very 0:50:22.520 --> 0:50:26.680 good job of kind of rebuilding the confidence of this 0:50:26.800 --> 0:50:29.520 defensive unit. But at the same time, if you were 0:50:29.520 --> 0:50:31.640 watching closely last year, again, second half, a lot of 0:50:31.680 --> 0:50:33.719 people start to tail off towards the last six weeks 0:50:33.719 --> 0:50:35.360 of football, when all of a sudden, you know, fantasy 0:50:35.440 --> 0:50:37.520 isn't as much of a thing. Right When Van Dersh 0:50:37.560 --> 0:50:40.160 came back healthy, they were not the doormat they were 0:50:40.280 --> 0:50:42.160 earlier in the year either. They started to pick it 0:50:42.200 --> 0:50:43.720 up a little bit and those games were a little closer, 0:50:43.719 --> 0:50:46.480 a little tighter, and they were not embarrassing on defense 0:50:46.520 --> 0:50:48.080 as they were in the beginning of the season they 0:50:48.120 --> 0:50:50.720 were just flat out embarrassing. This year, they are definitely 0:50:50.760 --> 0:50:53.360 not embarrassing this year. They're playing better and they're Abody 0:50:53.360 --> 0:50:55.080 gets some of the older guys in rotation too, which 0:50:55.120 --> 0:50:56.640 is good. So they're getting them a little breeders, so 0:50:56.640 --> 0:50:58.480 they're a little fresher in some of these moments of 0:50:58.480 --> 0:51:00.440 these games too, and that's huge because they little bit 0:51:00.440 --> 0:51:02.840 more depth than they had last year. Also, I just 0:51:02.880 --> 0:51:05.320 think that the Cowboys are the class of this division 0:51:05.360 --> 0:51:06.920 right now, and they're just gonna put a hurting on 0:51:06.960 --> 0:51:09.440 the Giants because I don't the Giants can't afford to 0:51:09.480 --> 0:51:12.200 play the way they did last week against New Orleans 0:51:12.760 --> 0:51:15.880 because Dak Prescott is going to destroy them if they 0:51:15.920 --> 0:51:18.200 give the same opportunities to Dak Prescott that they gave 0:51:18.680 --> 0:51:21.719 to James Winston and Tastar last week. 0:51:21.960 --> 0:51:24.480 All Right, I'm staying away from it personally, but I 0:51:24.560 --> 0:51:26.840 like your confidence. Let's go. This is a game that 0:51:26.920 --> 0:51:30.480 maybe we don't deserve, but we need right now, and 0:51:30.520 --> 0:51:34.440 that is the Bills visiting the Chiefs on Sunday Night football. 0:51:34.719 --> 0:51:37.320 The Chiefs right now are laying two and a half points. 0:51:37.600 --> 0:51:40.960 The total is eleventy billion. It's fifty six and a half. 0:51:41.200 --> 0:51:43.759 Fifty six and a half. Like, I don't even know 0:51:43.800 --> 0:51:46.520 what you do with that. So, Joe, what do you 0:51:46.560 --> 0:51:48.239 think I. 0:51:48.280 --> 0:51:50.680 Like the Buffalo Bills plus one twenty on the money 0:51:50.719 --> 0:51:52.279 line just to win this game out right now. That's 0:51:52.280 --> 0:51:54.520 the best wager of all these That's the one I 0:51:54.520 --> 0:51:57.640 feel the safest about. Believe it or not, Buffalo Bills 0:51:57.640 --> 0:52:01.719 are playing tremendous Josh Allen has something to prove here 0:52:01.800 --> 0:52:05.600 in this game. And Kansas City, you know, I know 0:52:05.640 --> 0:52:07.240 they looked so good last week, but that was against 0:52:07.280 --> 0:52:09.440 the Eagles and Tyree Hill, random, ok, and all that stuff. 0:52:09.480 --> 0:52:12.320 But I gotta tell you, there's just something that feels 0:52:12.360 --> 0:52:14.319 a little off right now with the Chiefs to me, 0:52:14.400 --> 0:52:16.239 and maybe this is it. Maybe this is the one 0:52:16.239 --> 0:52:18.120 they've circled and this is the game that's like, Okay, 0:52:18.280 --> 0:52:19.799 you know, we gotta play. Buffalo is a huge game. 0:52:19.840 --> 0:52:21.880 Maybe they've been looking ahead a little bit of this one. 0:52:22.080 --> 0:52:23.560 I don't know. I mean, the fifty six and a 0:52:23.600 --> 0:52:25.839 half is a huge number. I would be shocked if 0:52:25.840 --> 0:52:29.200 it went under. Still yeah, oh ditto, right right, It's 0:52:29.239 --> 0:52:31.920 still a big number. But it's like it kind of feels. 0:52:31.680 --> 0:52:34.719 Like you can't bet the unders of all energy just 0:52:35.239 --> 0:52:38.759 that defense is so poor, and that's that has not 0:52:38.840 --> 0:52:40.600 been the case in recent years. That's the thing that 0:52:40.640 --> 0:52:43.239 I feel like we're not talking about enough. Like as 0:52:43.280 --> 0:52:46.200 good as the Chiefs offense, you know, continues to be like, 0:52:46.239 --> 0:52:49.200 their defense is abysmal. And part of the reason why 0:52:49.239 --> 0:52:51.239 they were so good is that they're their defense was 0:52:51.360 --> 0:52:54.160 very bend. But don't break in these games. You know, 0:52:54.239 --> 0:52:57.800 they they had some personalities, and they had some injuries obviously, 0:52:57.840 --> 0:53:00.600 and they have had some injuries, but still well, that 0:53:00.680 --> 0:53:02.920 defense is basically a defense that you pick on. Right now, 0:53:03.000 --> 0:53:06.040 Josh Allen should go nuts, and it's really about whether 0:53:06.120 --> 0:53:08.560 or not Mahomes can go nuts against the Bills defense, 0:53:08.600 --> 0:53:11.759 by the way, which is playing extremely well. 0:53:12.040 --> 0:53:14.719 And without Poyer for two weeks, who's been hurt. So 0:53:15.080 --> 0:53:17.280 I don't know what Poyer status is yet for this week, 0:53:17.360 --> 0:53:18.759 but if they get him back to you, that's a 0:53:18.880 --> 0:53:22.120 huge piece in the secondary to return the look the 0:53:22.160 --> 0:53:25.640 Buffalo Bills, you know, were measured last year and they 0:53:25.640 --> 0:53:28.799 were found lacking a little bit okay when it got 0:53:28.840 --> 0:53:31.840 down to the nitty gritty, But this is usually how 0:53:31.920 --> 0:53:34.359 it happens. Right Usually you have this team that you know, 0:53:34.600 --> 0:53:36.560 starts to feel good about itself, starts to pull itself 0:53:36.560 --> 0:53:38.440 out of the ashes, and then they run into the 0:53:38.520 --> 0:53:41.439 Juggernaut and they get checked and they go okay. And 0:53:41.800 --> 0:53:44.239 now it feels like, you know you're in a certain 0:53:44.280 --> 0:53:46.160 point here with the Chiefs where you know all the 0:53:46.200 --> 0:53:49.080 expectations constantly might be weighing on them a little bit. 0:53:49.520 --> 0:53:51.239 I think Buffalo is the team that comes in here 0:53:51.280 --> 0:53:54.319 fast and loose, and they should And that's why, of 0:53:54.360 --> 0:53:56.680 all the things, I think your best ROI is that 0:53:56.680 --> 0:53:57.560 plus one twenty. 0:53:57.840 --> 0:54:00.719 Yeah, I do you like the Bills. If you like 0:54:00.800 --> 0:54:02.520 the Bills, you might as well take them on the 0:54:02.520 --> 0:54:04.120 money line rather than getting the two and a half 0:54:04.120 --> 0:54:04.759 points at this point. 0:54:04.840 --> 0:54:07.000 Yeah, I don't know mat the points. I wouldn't scround 0:54:07.040 --> 0:54:08.160 the points of this game, all right. 0:54:08.160 --> 0:54:11.560 Monday night football cults are visiting the Ravens. The Ravens 0:54:11.640 --> 0:54:15.160 are laying seven points. The total is forty seven. 0:54:15.200 --> 0:54:17.200 What do you think It's hard not to lean the 0:54:17.280 --> 0:54:19.719 Ravens in this game? For sure? With the seven, it 0:54:19.719 --> 0:54:21.279 would not shock me to see this go to seven 0:54:21.360 --> 0:54:23.360 and a half or even eight and a half or 0:54:23.400 --> 0:54:25.040 something by the time we get closer. I think this 0:54:25.040 --> 0:54:28.360 one's gonna grow. I would lock this in now Baltimore 0:54:28.360 --> 0:54:31.480 at home on a Monday night. I would lock this in. 0:54:32.400 --> 0:54:36.040 Yeah, I think that's right. And I think who was it, 0:54:36.360 --> 0:54:39.200 David Coke maybe from you know, a great you know 0:54:39.280 --> 0:54:41.759 bookmaker over in Vegas that we talked about a couple 0:54:41.760 --> 0:54:43.160 of years ago, and he was always like, you know, 0:54:43.400 --> 0:54:46.160 John Harbad doesn't just want to win, he wants to 0:54:46.200 --> 0:54:48.680 break your spirit. And I think that that's what you 0:54:48.719 --> 0:54:50.680 are going to see here. And again, kudos to the 0:54:50.719 --> 0:54:53.439 Colts that came out. They played well, but again once 0:54:53.480 --> 0:54:56.040 as far from healthy, they're still sort of down, you know, 0:54:56.080 --> 0:54:58.799 in their receiving core. You know, I like Michael Pittman Jr. 0:54:58.840 --> 0:55:01.040 But I offense believe they're not a team that can 0:55:01.120 --> 0:55:03.000 really hang it again. The Ravens. They may get Rashad 0:55:03.040 --> 0:55:05.720 Bateman back here, which would help, maybe not or whatever, 0:55:05.800 --> 0:55:09.120 But I agree with you, Joe, I would take the 0:55:09.920 --> 0:55:13.239 Ravens here, and I probably look to lock it in 0:55:13.320 --> 0:55:15.239 now just in case of climbs higher than a field goal, 0:55:15.239 --> 0:55:17.120 because I higher than a touch on part of me, 0:55:17.200 --> 0:55:19.400 because I think with a touchdown at least, you you know, 0:55:19.600 --> 0:55:22.960 probably lock in hopefully at worst case of push. Joey, 0:55:23.120 --> 0:55:25.359 that's it. That's all the games. Thank you so much 0:55:25.400 --> 0:55:26.960 for popping on with me today. 0:55:27.400 --> 0:55:30.200 It's always a pleasure. I love spending quality time with 0:55:30.239 --> 0:55:31.480 my good friend Dan. 0:55:31.360 --> 0:55:34.520 Harris, so we'll be back on Thursday, as we always are, 0:55:34.600 --> 0:55:37.319 talking about our three best bets, or at least my 0:55:37.320 --> 0:55:40.040 three best bets, our guest three best bets. In the meantime, 0:55:40.440 --> 0:55:42.560 enjoy a couple of days off here from football betting. 0:55:42.600 --> 0:56:01.839 We'll talk to you again in a couple of days.