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Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought

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Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.

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Speaker 1: Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Hadi. It is

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Speaker 1: time for an early look at the week five NFL lines,

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Speaker 1: and to do that is our very own Joe Pizzapia.

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Speaker 1: Find him on Twitter at Joe Pizzapia twenty No. Seventeen.

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Speaker 1: Oh god, I thought you were so much older than

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Speaker 1: you are.

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Speaker 2: Regard that is not the right foot to start.

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Speaker 1: We're recording this very early in the morning, Joe. I'm

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Speaker 1: usually just waking up at this time. Okay, I know

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Speaker 1: you wake up at like four am and you get

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Speaker 1: ready for your day. Anyway, Joe, as you guys know,

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Speaker 1: as a host of our college football Betting Bros. Podcast.

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Speaker 1: He also have the Fantasy Pros Football podcast. He is

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Speaker 1: the man. Joe, thanks for popping on the podcast this morning.

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Speaker 1: I know we've just talked for about a half hour

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Speaker 1: before we started recording, but publicly, how are you doing.

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Speaker 2: I'm doing all right, my friend, I'm doing all right.

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Speaker 2: I'm excited. I haven't been on this show. I was

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Speaker 2: thinking to myself, what show do we produce here at

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Speaker 2: Betting pros and Fantasy pros overall that I haven't done yet.

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Speaker 2: I haven't done this one, so I'm trying to literally

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Speaker 2: click them all off, check them all off the boxes,

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Speaker 2: every get my Bingo card completely full so that I

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Speaker 2: can go in and cash in at the end of

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Speaker 2: the year. So this is another a show that I

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Speaker 2: can check off now. And what's what's next. We have

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Speaker 2: a we have a curling show, maybe maybe bob sledding

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Speaker 2: coming up here. Winter Olympics right around the corner.

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Speaker 1: So like that a lot of We've got a lot

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Speaker 1: of Winter Olympics. But if your early performance is any indication,

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Speaker 1: this will be your last time here on this show,

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Speaker 1: all right, So you know what this is. We're going

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Speaker 1: to take an early look at the week five lines.

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Speaker 1: We're going to see if there's any value, see if

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Speaker 1: there are any bets that we like. Before we get

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Speaker 1: do an entry at this point. All you gotta do

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Speaker 1: is leave a review for the show on Apple podcast

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Speaker 1: or cast box and then go to Betting Pros dot

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Speaker 1: com slash review. That is it, and if you want

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Speaker 1: three times the entry, just subscribe here to our YouTube

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Speaker 1: channel YouTube dot com slash betting Pros. We do a

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Speaker 1: lot of good stuff. I do a props video every week.

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Speaker 1: We do a Sunday morning live stream eleven am to

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Speaker 1: twelve pm Eastern Time with me and Matt Pearl, or

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Speaker 1: we go through each of the game's Matt videos, all

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Speaker 1: his Daily Juice podcasts. There's a lot of good stuff there. Again,

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Speaker 1: three times the entries. If you go to YouTube dot

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Speaker 1: com slash betting pros Joey p Are you ready to

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Speaker 1: take a look at the week five lines?

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Speaker 2: I was born, ready, Harris, let's go.

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Speaker 1: This is my nightmare. Okay, let's start here with the

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Speaker 1: Thursday night game A little bit better than the Jaguars

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Speaker 1: and the Bengals. Here, we've got the Rams and the

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Speaker 1: Seahawks in Seattle. The Seahawks are getting two on our

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Speaker 1: betting Pros consensus lines, and the total is fifty four

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Speaker 1: and a half. These totals, man, this year, it's like,

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Speaker 1: I like, how like fifty four fifty five are just

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Speaker 1: like whatever? Now, I will say, Joe just before we

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Speaker 1: get into it, it's two. I don't really think it

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Speaker 1: matters that much right now with the Rams lying two,

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Speaker 1: But obviously those are the consensus lines. It's as high

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Speaker 1: as two and a half here over at Fox Bett

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Speaker 1: it's as low as one on my homebook DraftKings. So

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Speaker 1: generally speaking, Rams laying two in Seattle with the total

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Speaker 1: fifty four and a half.

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Speaker 2: Reaction, well, first of all, they have to talk about

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Speaker 2: where the Rams are and coming off that loss this week,

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Speaker 2: it's not surprising that they lost to the Cardinals. It's

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Speaker 2: more surprising than they lost at home, I think if

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Speaker 2: that makes any sense to you, and I think that, yeah,

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Speaker 2: that means the inevitable letdown of after you face Tom

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Speaker 2: Brady in a big game like that and you win

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Speaker 2: that game, it's very emotional lot going through, and then

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Speaker 2: you know, you have the Cardinals coming in. Theoretically you think, okay,

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Speaker 2: we're gonna beat them. It's gonna be you know, it's

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Speaker 2: gonna be fine. We're you know, just gonna roll over them.

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Speaker 2: And then they beat you. It's a little bit of

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Speaker 2: a wake up call. And I think it's in a

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Speaker 2: way it's a good loss for that team, if that

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Speaker 2: makes sense. It's a good loss. The Rams, I think,

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Speaker 2: are the most complete team in the NFL. That being said,

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Speaker 2: this is another Indivision matchup here where they've got, you know,

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Speaker 2: they take on Tom Brady one week, right and probably

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Speaker 2: the rain defending champs and probably the favorites to repeat.

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Speaker 2: Then you've got successive weeks two Indivision opponents here and

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Speaker 2: now you've got to go on the road to Seattle.

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Speaker 2: See how it's not nearly as tough as a place.

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Speaker 2: The one thing that I do like, here is the

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Speaker 2: total and it's the over on the total of fifty

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Speaker 2: four and a half, which I know it's a high number,

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Speaker 2: but we're seeing an explosion of offense in the league

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Speaker 2: this year. We're on pace to shatter all the records already,

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Speaker 2: and it's just it's a combination of just the rules,

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Speaker 2: it's a combination of the speed of the players. Also

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Speaker 2: just the openness of the game and where we're at

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Speaker 2: right now, and the quarterback play is exceptional for the

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Speaker 2: most part. There's been some really great quarterback play this

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Speaker 2: year in the league. For me, I would stay away

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Speaker 2: from the line here, I would go to the over

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Speaker 2: under and I would hammer the over there because in

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Speaker 2: a short week two it's really tough for defenses typically

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Speaker 2: to prepare very well, even though they know these teams

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Speaker 2: and all that the Rams have. Here is also a

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Speaker 2: unique position where they have multiple guys to throw the

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Speaker 2: ball to, so it's not just a one dimensional team

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Speaker 2: where you could say, oh, you know, it's very easy,

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Speaker 2: we could just target one of these guys shut them down. Now,

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Speaker 2: it's gonna be a little harder than that. So I

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Speaker 2: think that wide openness of the Rams passing game and

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Speaker 2: on top of that which you have with the Seattle Seahawks,

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Speaker 2: which is, you know, a good team and Russell Wilson

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Speaker 2: kind of carrying them a little bit right now at home.

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Speaker 2: This is a big matchup the overs where I go

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Speaker 2: right now in terms of who's gonna win, this is

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Speaker 2: kind of a toss up for me. If anything, I

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Speaker 2: might take the money line, which is plus one eighteen

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Speaker 2: right now on the Seahawks to win straight up. I

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Speaker 2: think that's a little bit better in terms of your

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Speaker 2: returnal investment.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's probably. I mean, I might have

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Speaker 1: a little action on this game because it's Thursday night football,

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Speaker 1: and you probably should just one way or another, right

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Speaker 1: but I'll probably like you certainly on the side stay

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Speaker 1: away from it. I don't have a good sense of it. Also,

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Speaker 1: I don't think matters if you bet it now or later,

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Speaker 1: Like it's not going to climb to three. There's not

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Speaker 1: gonna This is a very evenly matched game in Seattle

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Speaker 1: again on the short week, which again it's very difficult

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Speaker 1: for the Rams, who were just basically getting their butts

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Speaker 1: kicked with their defense on the field a ton against Arizona.

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Speaker 1: I think they're probably a little tired. It's tougher for

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Speaker 1: defenses to bounce back on the short week here, so

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Speaker 1: it's probably something where i'd stay away. I guess i'd

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Speaker 1: lean over, But man, I am tired. I am tired

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Speaker 1: of these totals. Like at the fifty five and again

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Speaker 1: we saw Joe right, we had primetime overs. We're just

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Speaker 1: non stop hitting, And then this week it was all

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Speaker 1: of the primetime games came under their totals. So I

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Speaker 1: wonder whether or not the books are just basically still

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Speaker 1: they're juicing them up so high right now.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, in one of those, you know, the

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Speaker 2: torrential downpour of rain and suble and really changed the

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Speaker 2: dynamic of that total. You know, it's all that whether

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Speaker 2: they should have hammered the under there just as tougher.

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Speaker 1: I agree, But I also think really it might have

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Speaker 1: been more of Gronkowski out because I think like that

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Speaker 1: changed the dynamic of their blocking just generally. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Brady was getting a little bit of rasped.

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Speaker 2: It's fair Fronk being out to a certain extent. That also,

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Speaker 2: it's all the game plan that Belichick wanted to play,

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Speaker 2: which is slug it out, bring him down to your level,

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Speaker 2: kind of stuff, and that's what he does with all

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Speaker 2: the great quarterbacks, you know, in those kind of games

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Speaker 2: where every play is a high powered offense. You know,

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Speaker 2: if you go back to the AFC Championship game a

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Speaker 2: couple of years ago, right with Mahomes, where they shut

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Speaker 2: him out, they brought it down to a grinding kind

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Speaker 2: of game. Now they only got away with it for

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Speaker 2: half a football. They got away with it for an

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Speaker 2: entire game this past week with Brady in the Bucks.

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Speaker 2: So that's a gain again, That's that's the game plan.

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Speaker 2: That's what he wants to do. He wants you to

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Speaker 2: get you in the mud. He wants you to keep

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Speaker 2: changing looks every two seconds and having to adapt to

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Speaker 2: what he's doing and staying ahead of you, Whereas Nope,

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Speaker 2: most coaches don't make adjustments as quickly as Belichick does,

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Speaker 2: and as well in the second half too. So no

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Speaker 2: matter what they were doing the first half, you know

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Speaker 2: they were going to have more things to throw him

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Speaker 2: in the second half. So the under in that game

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Speaker 2: does not surprise me whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: All Right, Jets are technically visiting the Falcons, but they're

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Speaker 1: in London in this one early in the morning on

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Speaker 1: Sunday the Falcons. The consensus sign is laying three and

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Speaker 1: a half. The total is forty six. What do you think, Joey.

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Speaker 2: I think I want to apologize to Great Britain for

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Speaker 2: sending them this game. This is football. Here you go, everybody,

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Speaker 2: here you go. Here's the best we can offer you.

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Speaker 1: I mean, come on, man over there.

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Speaker 2: Oh hey, we had Murph on the show a couple

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Speaker 2: of weeks back, right, I mean it is huge there.

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Speaker 1: That's a Jets Dolphins game several years ago, and that

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Speaker 1: place goes insane any football, regardless of the level of play.

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Speaker 1: So don't apologize. Let them enjoy it and let them

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Speaker 1: watch the Jets cover the three and a half spread.

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Speaker 2: Right, God, I hate this game. It's gross.

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Speaker 1: Run man.

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Speaker 2: I don't like when I don't have a beat on

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Speaker 2: either of these teams, and neither of them are good

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Speaker 2: football teams. I don't care if the Jets game away

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Speaker 2: with a victory. It's also the travel. You don't know

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Speaker 2: how teams are going to react to need this game.

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Speaker 2: Most London games are a bad investment. This one in

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Speaker 2: particular is awful because you have two bad teams and

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Speaker 2: you don't know how bad. It's going to be if

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Speaker 2: any maybe you can look towards the under if you

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Speaker 2: thought the defenses were any good. But I don't think

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Speaker 2: the defenses are any good. So this is a complete

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Speaker 2: stay away from y'all. Have nothing to do with this

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Speaker 2: game for a myriad of reasons.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not going near the total because I think

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Speaker 1: it's very difficult, like you said, with the huge travel

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Speaker 1: like this, to understand how teams are going to react.

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Speaker 1: But I am telling you right now that I do

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Speaker 1: not think that the Falcons should be more than a

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Speaker 1: field goal favorite over anyone at this point in the season.

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Speaker 1: And again, you saw the Jets. Okay, and you know

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Speaker 1: I'm not a homer like obviously and stuff like that,

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Speaker 1: but we saw the Jets. Pat and I talked about

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Speaker 1: it last week. By the way, we liked the Jets

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Speaker 1: certainly getting this seven, and we kind of like them

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Speaker 1: on the money line because we thought this was a

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Speaker 1: possibility when you play a less than above average defense,

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Speaker 1: as the Jets have played every single week. Their offensive

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Speaker 1: line is terrible, their defense has no personnel, but the

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Speaker 1: scheme works. Okay, they're getting healthier there, it's possible elize

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Speaker 1: more plays. I'll take the Jets here man, and I

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Speaker 1: don't think you need to run. I don't think it's

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Speaker 1: going to get to a field goal or anything like that.

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Speaker 1: I mean DraftKings that four and a half actually, But

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Speaker 1: I think you can bet it now. You can wait

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Speaker 1: if you want, But I will take the Jets if

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Speaker 1: you're giving me the hook, just because, honestly, I don't

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Speaker 1: think the valten should be more than a three point

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Speaker 1: favorite over anyone right now.

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Speaker 2: I like having crowder back in that offense. I think

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Speaker 2: that's a really good safety net for a young quarterback.

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Speaker 2: That was the only guy that Sam Darnold could throw

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Speaker 2: the ball to for the first year or so of

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Speaker 2: his Jets career. So I think that's a good thing there,

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Speaker 2: and a confidence builder for a win. Not only the

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Speaker 2: Jets winning a football game would want to throw gatorade

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Speaker 2: on their coach. Only the Jets would want to do that.

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Speaker 2: But your nuts if you make an investment in this game,

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Speaker 2: I'm sorry. There's so many this is four outcomes written

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Speaker 2: all over it.

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Speaker 1: I'm taking the I'm taking the hush Man. Call me crazy,

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Speaker 1: I'm fine to do it. Let's go with the crazy

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Speaker 1: visiting crazy. That's fine. I've been called worse Saints visiting Washington.

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Speaker 1: The Saints are laying one and a half points here.

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Speaker 1: The total is forty four and a half.

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Speaker 2: What do you think, Joe, This is a fascinating one.

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Speaker 2: This almost feels like too easy to me. You know,

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Speaker 2: the Washington football team, for all their struggles on defense

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Speaker 2: this year, offensively have okay. And they get Kurtis Samuel

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Speaker 2: back in Taylor Heineke. You know, in terms of fantasy points,

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Speaker 2: he's put up you know, QB one three weeks in

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Speaker 2: a row here. So I mean, nobody seems to care

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Speaker 2: or notice that except me, and I keep bringing this up.

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Speaker 2: And that's why he was our lock of the Week

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Speaker 2: play on the DFS show along with McLaurin. That was

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Speaker 2: the pairing and if you played that, you did pretty well.

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Speaker 2: But the point here is, I think with the Saints

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Speaker 2: inefficiencies on offense, with them traveling here on the road,

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Speaker 2: coming off a bad loss at home, you know, going

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Speaker 2: into overtime in that game, I like Washington here on

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Speaker 2: this side. I think I would definitely take the Washington side.

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Speaker 2: This should be a relatively close game theoretically, but the

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Speaker 2: whole going back and forth a quarterback thing to me,

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Speaker 2: that always just takes offenses out of a rhythm. I'm sorry,

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Speaker 2: it's just it's very difficult to operate that way. I

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Speaker 2: would stay away from the total. I would just go

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Speaker 2: right to the Washington side with the one and a half,

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Speaker 2: which is what I'm seeing over from FanDuel. I would

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Speaker 2: even take them outright as plus one twelve. I actually

281
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Speaker 2: think that's a pretty good number you're getting on them

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Speaker 2: as well. I think Washington a little bit of confidence

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Speaker 2: builder for them last week that was a big road

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Speaker 2: win despite the fact the Falcons aren't any good. You

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Speaker 2: still road winds are tough, and I think you get

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Speaker 2: back home a little bit. You build some momentum off

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Speaker 2: of that off of New Orleans Saints team that to

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Speaker 2: me has all kinds of issues, and Callaway is probably

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Speaker 2: gonna be out for this game too, possibly, So I

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Speaker 2: think you're in a spot here where New Orleans offensively

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Speaker 2: is just kind of banged up, beaten up, not very good.

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Speaker 2: The defense is good, but not great. I don't know, man,

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Speaker 2: I think this is a dangerous game here for the Saints.

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Speaker 2: I take the Washington sign.

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Speaker 1: I'm staying away from it. I think your points are valid.

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Speaker 1: This just strikes me as sort of the classic right,

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Speaker 1: I feel like, I mean, it's simplistic to sort of

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Speaker 1: describe it this way, but there's like a very clear

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Speaker 1: sort of bilo sell high. Washington comes off that big win,

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Speaker 1: Saints come off a really bad loss, Like you could

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Speaker 1: see the Saints coming out here and just winning this game.

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Speaker 1: And again that if you bet it now, if you

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Speaker 1: bet it later, if you like a side, don't, you

304
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Speaker 1: don't have to rush. It's minus one and a half.

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Speaker 1: As Joe mentioned at Fandal, that's our consentsus sign is

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Speaker 1: pretty much unanimously the Saints laying one and a half.

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Speaker 1: I don't. I don't a good feel for it. I'm

308
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Speaker 1: not going near the total with you. I agree completely,

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Speaker 1: but it's something where I'm staying away. I feel a

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Speaker 1: little less confident.

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Speaker 2: I think the wrong team is favored in this game.

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Speaker 2: Straight up. Whenever you think that, that's where you go bet,

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Speaker 2: like if you look at like what I like to

314
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Speaker 2: do with this is an exercise I learned from my

315
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Speaker 2: good friend Betty your Chardi over the years. You do

316
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Speaker 2: the lines yourself before you go look at the line

317
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Speaker 2: correct And I would have had Washington favored by three

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Speaker 2: in this game. And so okay lost one and a half.

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Speaker 1: Right now, all right, So I would have had Washington

320
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Speaker 1: basically favored by a point, like so to me, when

321
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Speaker 1: you you know, that's not a big deal, Like one

322
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Speaker 1: and a half one way, one the other way, not

323
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Speaker 1: a big deal. So if you had it at three,

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Speaker 1: then you're definitely taking Washington this game. Yeah. For me,

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I find them a little more evenly mashed,

326
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Speaker 1: not like they do. Get Curtis Samuel back, but they're

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Speaker 1: going to be down Logan Thomas and you know, I

328
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Speaker 1: it's just something where I don't I don't have a

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Speaker 1: beat on the Saints team yet, Joe. That's really the

330
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Speaker 1: issue for me. Like they're not impressive offensively, they are

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Speaker 1: generally speaking pretty impressive deep when they're healthy and everything

332
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Speaker 1: like that. It's just I don't know. To stay away

333
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Speaker 1: from me, but this one is interesting to me, Joe.

334
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Speaker 1: The Packers are visiting the Bengals. The Packers are laying

335
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Speaker 1: three and a half points. The total is forty nine

336
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Speaker 1: and a half. What do you think.

337
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Speaker 2: Here, Well, I think if you don't get T Higgins

338
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Speaker 2: back on this game, this is going to be a

339
00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:19,880
Speaker 2: tough one here, Joe, Mixon's banged up.

340
00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:23,240
Speaker 1: He is expected to play though the early word early

341
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Speaker 1: word right, early word early words.

342
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Speaker 2: He expected to play, and I would expect he is

343
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Speaker 2: going to play and does play. But at the same time,

344
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Speaker 2: if you don't have Higgins on that field too, then

345
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Speaker 2: that means Alexander is going to be on Chase, and

346
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Speaker 2: we all know how that goes. If he takes out Chase,

347
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Speaker 2: then all of a sudden, you're gonna have to find

348
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Speaker 2: other pieces. And if mix is not one hundred percent,

349
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Speaker 2: I don't know what this other pieces are. I don't

350
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Speaker 2: think Tyler Boyd is enough year, even at home, to

351
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Speaker 2: beat the Packers. So Packers by three and a half

352
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Speaker 2: to me, actually, I would take the three and a

353
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Speaker 2: half on the Packers side of this one. I actually

354
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Speaker 2: think they win this one by a touchdown, and I

355
00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:53,200
Speaker 2: think they win it pretty handily. And I want to

356
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Speaker 2: give the Bengals some respect too, because defensively, they played

357
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Speaker 2: much better in the second half. Last year. They were

358
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Speaker 2: a dormat. Everybody made fun of them in the first

359
00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:01,760
Speaker 2: half and then they kind of flip the switch. They

360
00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:05,920
Speaker 2: don't have a ton of talent necessarily, yeah, but they

361
00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:09,400
Speaker 2: play hard and they play smart. And it kind of

362
00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:11,320
Speaker 2: dates back also to that game they had last year

363
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Speaker 2: against Pittsburgh, if your call that. I remember that primetime

364
00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:16,920
Speaker 2: game where they embarrassed the Steelers right and ever since

365
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Speaker 2: then in the offseason they made some moves as well.

366
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Speaker 2: We actually highlighted them on the IDP Show earlier this week.

367
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Speaker 2: Bob Mey and I we talked at length about the

368
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Speaker 2: Bengals defense. They are better, which means that I still

369
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Speaker 2: feel like the under is a little bit more possible

370
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Speaker 2: for this game. I would lean towards the under because

371
00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:34,920
Speaker 2: I don't think the Packers are gonna explode necessarily offensively,

372
00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:37,040
Speaker 2: but I do think they're gonna control this game from

373
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Speaker 2: start to finish, and I do think they're gonna win

374
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Speaker 2: it comfortably. So for me, I think it's the three

375
00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:43,560
Speaker 2: and a half side on the Packers. But I would

376
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Speaker 2: shy the under here just to Tad, just because I

377
00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:48,240
Speaker 2: don't think Cincinnati can keep pace. And I also don't

378
00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:51,040
Speaker 2: think the way the Cincinnati Bengals defenses played that they're

379
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Speaker 2: gonna let it get completely out of control.

380
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't have a great sense of it either.

381
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Speaker 1: Really with this game, I lean towards the Packers, even

382
00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:01,800
Speaker 1: with the it's weird. I mean, the Bengals are off

383
00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:04,840
Speaker 1: kind of the Mini by it's possible mixing plays. He's

384
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Speaker 1: going to be day to day until the end, and

385
00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:07,560
Speaker 1: then he's gonna be out for six weeks like we

386
00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:10,320
Speaker 1: were last year. But regardless that, no, that certainly hurts him.

387
00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:11,840
Speaker 1: But I expect Higgins to play. I don't know if

388
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Speaker 1: j R. Alexander is gonna be able to play in

389
00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:15,400
Speaker 1: this one because he's got the ac joint, you know,

390
00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,600
Speaker 1: injury thing. So maybe he does, maybe he doesn't. There's

391
00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:22,120
Speaker 1: some unknowns here, and especially again given the fact that

392
00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:24,720
Speaker 1: they're off the Mini by I lean Packers, I think

393
00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:27,680
Speaker 1: you're probably going to see this basically stay where it is.

394
00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,040
Speaker 1: I don't think it gets to three, although admittedly I

395
00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:31,680
Speaker 1: do see a three out there at Fox Bet. But

396
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Speaker 1: I think for the most part, books are three and

397
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Speaker 1: a half. I think that's the right line. I think

398
00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:37,080
Speaker 1: it's going to stay there. Did you say you lean

399
00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:38,840
Speaker 1: the under Joe? If you went one way or the other,

400
00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:39,120
Speaker 1: I do.

401
00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:42,920
Speaker 2: This feels like a twenty four to thirteen kind of

402
00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:43,440
Speaker 2: game to me.

403
00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:46,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the Packers offense is not like it. You know,

404
00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:50,080
Speaker 1: DeVonta Adams is incredible. Aaron Jones is amazing, Aaron Rodgers amazing.

405
00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:52,240
Speaker 1: But it's not It doesn't have that explosive feel right now.

406
00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:55,760
Speaker 1: And again you mentioned the Bengals defense. It's playing much

407
00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:56,720
Speaker 1: better than I expected.

408
00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:59,240
Speaker 2: They're making plays there. Yeah, coached, well, they're in a

409
00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:02,000
Speaker 2: good spot here. Yeah, Bells played very well. A couple

410
00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:03,600
Speaker 2: of the other guys on defense have really kind of

411
00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:05,600
Speaker 2: stepped up a little bit. Again, they don't have you know,

412
00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:07,280
Speaker 2: they don't have the Miles Garrett, they don't have the

413
00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:09,040
Speaker 2: Aaron Donald, they don't have that kind of push you

414
00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:12,439
Speaker 2: get up front. Necessarily. What they've done is they've remade

415
00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:14,119
Speaker 2: the secondary a little bit and they've booked up in

416
00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:18,520
Speaker 2: the linebacker corps and they're playing They're playing efficient defense,

417
00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:20,960
Speaker 2: and they're not letting teams kind of explode on them

418
00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:22,480
Speaker 2: anymore the way that they did in the first half

419
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Speaker 2: last year, which is good progress. But at the same points,

420
00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,119
Speaker 2: I thought Burrow played very well. But you're talking about

421
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Speaker 2: taking that game and that performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

422
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Speaker 2: You can't translate that to a Packers team that's just

423
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Speaker 2: infinitely more talented.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this one's fascinating, Joe. This game because we have

425
00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:41,000
Speaker 1: a lot of question marks. I've also made a lot

426
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Speaker 1: of money here taking the unders on the Broncos game.

427
00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:48,760
Speaker 1: I'm late. This is the Broncos are visiting Pittsburgh. The

428
00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:52,399
Speaker 1: Steelers are laying one and a half, and they are saying,

429
00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:54,840
Speaker 1: go ahead and take the over. We don't care. It's

430
00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:59,800
Speaker 1: forty forty even for the total. What do you think again, Aldon,

431
00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:02,840
Speaker 1: let's talk about the uncertainty. Obviously, Teddy Bridgewater is in

432
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:05,800
Speaker 1: the concussion protocol as we speak, he is uncertain for

433
00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:08,960
Speaker 1: this game. There is a large difference for me whether

434
00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:11,320
Speaker 1: or not it's Teddy Bridgewater versus Drew Locke. But what

435
00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,119
Speaker 1: do you think right now where we are.

436
00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:16,120
Speaker 2: I don't think that matters all that much. I could

437
00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:18,320
Speaker 2: not believe that they lost two straight games at home.

438
00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:21,600
Speaker 2: The Pittsburgh stear is going to lose three straight games

439
00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:23,720
Speaker 2: in Pittsburgh. Man, that's tough. I mean, I don't know.

440
00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:26,480
Speaker 2: New England just did it. They all three straight home games.

441
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:28,200
Speaker 1: And man, if you don't have the personnel, you don't

442
00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:28,840
Speaker 1: have the personnel.

443
00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:31,959
Speaker 2: I know. But also typically you know certain buildings, certain

444
00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:34,080
Speaker 2: environments are tougher to play than others. We know that

445
00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:38,520
Speaker 2: it's just historically true. But the Steelers have all kinds

446
00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,119
Speaker 2: of issues right now, the Denver Broncos, I know, with

447
00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:44,080
Speaker 2: the uncertainty quarterback. Once again, this is a very tricky game.

448
00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,560
Speaker 2: This feels like a trap game to me that typically

449
00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:48,840
Speaker 2: I would stay away from. But the total of the forty,

450
00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:50,520
Speaker 2: I mean, it's just kind of begging for the over.

451
00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:53,159
Speaker 2: Forty and a half is just I mean, in this

452
00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:54,640
Speaker 2: day and age of the NFL, if you can't get

453
00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:55,840
Speaker 2: to forty and a half or two the two of you,

454
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:59,720
Speaker 2: and look, this could very well be you know what

455
00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:02,080
Speaker 2: right on that seventeen thirteen kind of line.

456
00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,880
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, they have been throughout the whole right, that's

457
00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:08,000
Speaker 1: where they've been living right now. Their defense is very

458
00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:12,240
Speaker 1: very good. Their offense is unexplosive, and the Steelers have

459
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:14,879
Speaker 1: no offense to speak of. I mean, whether or not

460
00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:18,360
Speaker 1: Chase Claypole pops up here, it doesn't matter. Their offensive

461
00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:22,000
Speaker 1: line is absolutely abysmal. Their defense is solid, not that

462
00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:24,800
Speaker 1: they've got wopped back. I mean, I'm not betting the under, Joe,

463
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,000
Speaker 1: because it's forty, Like that is just a number that

464
00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:28,200
Speaker 1: really it's not a.

465
00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:30,399
Speaker 2: Good You have to lean towards the over. But I

466
00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:33,080
Speaker 2: will say this Dan. The minus one and a half

467
00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:35,240
Speaker 2: here on the Pittsburgh side. I think you also have

468
00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:38,600
Speaker 2: to keep in mind that even though Pittsburgh has struggled,

469
00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:41,359
Speaker 2: they did beat Buffalo, and even though Denver has a

470
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:43,960
Speaker 2: three to one record, they beat up on bad teams.

471
00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:46,040
Speaker 2: So the minute they got a taste of a good

472
00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:49,440
Speaker 2: team here in their own building, no less, Baltimore straight

473
00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:53,359
Speaker 2: up embarrassed them in that game. Right, So I think

474
00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:55,200
Speaker 2: this is that perfect thing where people might think Denver

475
00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:56,920
Speaker 2: is a little bit better than they are. I would

476
00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:58,399
Speaker 2: lean towards the minus one and a half here on

477
00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:02,040
Speaker 2: the Pittsburgh side of this game. It's minus one twenty

478
00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:04,600
Speaker 2: two here on the money line for Pittsburgh tells you

479
00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:06,760
Speaker 2: that there's some confidence there that the Steels are gonna

480
00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:09,040
Speaker 2: win this football game. This is a game where people

481
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:12,320
Speaker 2: get caught up on record instead of the strength of opponent.

482
00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:14,560
Speaker 2: And I think the Steelers have, you know, played some

483
00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:16,520
Speaker 2: good teams. I think Las Vegas is a good team.

484
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:21,719
Speaker 2: You know, they they battle. They're not the as wishy

485
00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:23,399
Speaker 2: washy I think as they were in the past, despite

486
00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:25,240
Speaker 2: the fact that they're coming off a Monday night loss.

487
00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:26,720
Speaker 2: I think when you look back now and get a

488
00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:29,800
Speaker 2: little bit more perspective on these first four weeks. Pittsburgh's

489
00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:32,479
Speaker 2: had the tougher schedule and they have the worst record.

490
00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:34,920
Speaker 2: But I'm not gonna get hung up on Denver's good

491
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,359
Speaker 2: record either. I don't think Denver is as good of

492
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:39,600
Speaker 2: a football team as their record says they are, So

493
00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:41,280
Speaker 2: I would take the Pittsburgh out of this game at

494
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:42,119
Speaker 2: minus one and a half.

495
00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:44,119
Speaker 1: So for me, I don't care the fact that the

496
00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,520
Speaker 1: Broncos are three and one or that the Steelers are

497
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,200
Speaker 1: one in three. I mean, I agree that the Broncos

498
00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:52,280
Speaker 1: have benefited from the lack of quality opponents that they

499
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:54,359
Speaker 1: have played in the first three weeks, but I do

500
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:58,280
Speaker 1: think that their defense is legitimate. I do think, to

501
00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:00,919
Speaker 1: be you know, quite honest, I really think that the

502
00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 1: loss of kJ Hamler is a huge loss for the

503
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:06,679
Speaker 1: Broncos just because again already down Jerry Judy. It doesn't

504
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:08,879
Speaker 1: the field's not open now at this point, right. I mean,

505
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 1: Handler wasn't that involved, but he at least stretched the field,

506
00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:14,040
Speaker 1: made the you know, safeties, and the quarterbacks have to

507
00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:17,719
Speaker 1: think about that open up intermediate routes here for Courtland

508
00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 1: Sutton and Tim Patrick, that's gone. The Steelers are, as

509
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:22,879
Speaker 1: you mentioned, desperate. But I have no faith in the

510
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:24,960
Speaker 1: Steelers right now, Joe. I mean you watch that offense.

511
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:28,160
Speaker 1: That offensive line is terrible. I actually I don't often,

512
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,760
Speaker 1: as I've said, I don't often feel bad for football players.

513
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:33,959
Speaker 1: I feel bad for Ben because Ben is honestly like,

514
00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:36,920
Speaker 1: oh God, I'm gonna die. I've got to just find

515
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,120
Speaker 1: a way to survive long enough to dump it off

516
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:42,920
Speaker 1: four yards down the field. So I'm concerned about their offense.

517
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:46,119
Speaker 1: With that said, Joe, I number one, especially with the

518
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:50,040
Speaker 1: uncertainty around Locke versus Bridgewater, which I do think is

519
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:52,119
Speaker 1: a big deal. By the way, I have zero faith

520
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,400
Speaker 1: and Drew Locke being able to win a game going

521
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,679
Speaker 1: into Pittsburgh. I have more faith in Teddy Covers, you know,

522
00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:00,200
Speaker 1: being able to do it. But for me, I'm very

523
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 1: uncertain here right now. And I do think that the

524
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 1: Steelers find a way to win this game and don't

525
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,000
Speaker 1: end their season, which they probably will if they lose

526
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 1: this game at one and four, Like it's very difficult

527
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 1: to come back from that. So I am with you

528
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 1: actually with the uncertainty even if Bridgewater plays, I do

529
00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:18,359
Speaker 1: think this is a game that the Broncos traveling after

530
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:20,720
Speaker 1: a home game are not going to be able to

531
00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:23,240
Speaker 1: pull out against the Steelers. So I think again, their defense.

532
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 2: Is just going to bring it wins on defense.

533
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 1: I think you're correct.

534
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,720
Speaker 2: I think that's correct, you know what, being back and

535
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:30,399
Speaker 2: playing and one of those losses was not in that

536
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,160
Speaker 2: game either. Yea, No, that's that's another huge loss. I mean,

537
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:37,440
Speaker 2: he really changes completely how you have to approach the

538
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:39,640
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh Steelers on the defensive side of the football.

539
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:41,760
Speaker 1: And I do think that the game, this is a

540
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 1: game you gotta bet now, I think because I don't

541
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 1: think right because.

542
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,480
Speaker 2: If it's if half, at least by the time it might.

543
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:51,400
Speaker 1: Get it might get to three, honestly, because I think

544
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 1: that once that happens, Drew to me, Lock the downgrade

545
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:58,200
Speaker 1: from Bridgewater to Locke is enormous. So to me, I

546
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:00,240
Speaker 1: I'm betting it now because I want to lie in

547
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 1: because I do think that the Steelers get out of here.

548
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:06,160
Speaker 1: Let's go to the Dolphins visiting the Bucks Florida game. Here.

549
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 1: The Bucks right now are laying ten and a half.

550
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 1: The total is forty eight. What do you think.

551
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:15,360
Speaker 2: You know? It should be an absolute cake walk. I mean,

552
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 2: it just an absolutely shit. I see on Fandle it's

553
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:20,320
Speaker 2: forty seven and a half. You said it's forty eight

554
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:21,240
Speaker 2: in another spot there.

555
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:23,880
Speaker 1: Correct, it's forty eight, is our consensus lines. It's basically

556
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,119
Speaker 1: bouncing back and forth between forty eight.

557
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:29,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, like Tampa should absolutely smash the Dolphins.

558
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 2: I mean they really should. Theoretically, I wonder what the

559
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:35,399
Speaker 2: it's only going to react two ways right after a

560
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 2: very emotional week leading up for Brady. There's a lot

561
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:41,159
Speaker 2: of stuff going on there, right yeah, and it's finally

562
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 2: all over. So either they bounce back and everything is

563
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 2: just great. No, I oh, finally that's over. We're done

564
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 2: with that. We can move on. We got the big

565
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 2: win in New England and then we're back to being

566
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 2: you know, the Bruse Area's fun loving Buccaneers. Or it

567
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 2: took so much out of them that there's a little

568
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 2: bit of hangover in the beginning of this game, and

569
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 2: if there is, that's where some of these large numbers

570
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,160
Speaker 2: kind of come went to play the Dolphins right now.

571
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 2: Last week had all kinds of problems. Are not gonna

572
00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:06,359
Speaker 2: have Wolf Fullers. That's one less weapon to have. They

573
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,199
Speaker 2: could not run the football at all last week, that

574
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 2: is going to be exasperated the worst way this week.

575
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:16,119
Speaker 2: So that is not a good situation. I think right now,

576
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 2: you know, the over under is not something I would

577
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:20,879
Speaker 2: play around with because I think there's variables in that

578
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:24,240
Speaker 2: depending on how much the Miami offense does or does

579
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,120
Speaker 2: not show up. So I don't want to put anything

580
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 2: into Miami because whenever you talk about totals, you have

581
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:29,439
Speaker 2: to talk about both teams in your head for the

582
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 2: most part, and I'm concerned of Miami doing their part

583
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,640
Speaker 2: to hit this number. Therefore, I think the safest thing

584
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 2: here to look at, even though it's ten and a half,

585
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 2: I just think the Bucks are going to be up

586
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:42,400
Speaker 2: by a lot in this game. I could worry about

587
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 2: garbage time a little bit, but again, we don't have

588
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 2: that field stretcher guy like Will Fuller. Makes a little

589
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 2: bit harder to kind of catch up, and you can't

590
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,919
Speaker 2: run the football, you become one dimensional. The one thing

591
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 2: that gives me, Paul is Dan is they've had all

592
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 2: those injuries in the secondary right for the Bucks. So Ken,

593
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:01,359
Speaker 2: DeVante Parker, Ken Waddle, can they enough to kind of

594
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:03,400
Speaker 2: keep pace at the end a little bit or throw

595
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 2: on some garbage time and all of a sudden, maybe

596
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 2: cut you know, a fourteen point lead to ten. Yeah,

597
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:12,359
Speaker 2: maybe they can. It's possible. But at the same time,

598
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 2: I don't know, man, I think it's the Bucks in

599
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 2: the ten and a half, even though it's a big number.

600
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,639
Speaker 2: But I would stay away from the overunder because the overunder,

601
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 2: to me, there's that variable where this is the Dolphins

602
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 2: could get shut out again. It's not out of the

603
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 2: rum of possibility.

604
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:28,440
Speaker 1: It's not a The best part is that teams don't

605
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,239
Speaker 1: even try to run right now in the box right

606
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 1: like other than Sony Michelle with the Rams, where that

607
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 1: was a game where they were just like, we can

608
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:35,920
Speaker 1: just run it because we're gonna win this game where

609
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:38,399
Speaker 1: he hit twenty carries, teams just basically go into it.

610
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:40,439
Speaker 1: You saw the Patriots, They're like, oh, we're we're not

611
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 1: gonna try to run, like we know we can't run.

612
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 1: We're just gonna pass and that's fine. And look, you

613
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 1: saw the Patriots have some success even with the driving

614
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 1: rain in that game. Mac Jones played very well even

615
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 1: without really having the field stretcher that going you know

616
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 1: that taking shots. It was a lot of short passes,

617
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:01,120
Speaker 1: but it worked out for them. But I do think that, yeah,

618
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 1: Miami even if they abandoned the run without will Fuller

619
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,119
Speaker 1: without that, and Fuller hasn't been you know, it's barely

620
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:08,640
Speaker 1: been playing this year.

621
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:11,119
Speaker 2: No, But it's just a theory Dan like have that

622
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 2: guy you can get behind a secondary and they don't. Right.

623
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 2: I don't think if DeVante Parker is really that guy

624
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 2: at the stage's but Parker. It's just a matter of

625
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:23,359
Speaker 2: looking at Miami Dolphins realistically here and as good as

626
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:25,359
Speaker 2: they were last year, I feel like there's part of

627
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:27,359
Speaker 2: us that are still kind of carrying that torch a

628
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 2: little bit. But if you really hyper focus on what

629
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:31,880
Speaker 2: they've done so far this year, it's not been good.

630
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,959
Speaker 2: It's really been negative for the most part, outside of

631
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:38,159
Speaker 2: like glimpses here and there. And you can blame it

632
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 2: on too it being hurt. That's that's fair, that's fine

633
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:42,120
Speaker 2: if you want it. But it wasn't all roses when

634
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 2: Toua was healthy, either, right. I think I think right

635
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 2: now people are still kind of thinking of the Dolphins

636
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 2: and how you know, they competed and they just missed

637
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,199
Speaker 2: the playoffs and what they were last year, whereas this year,

638
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:52,960
Speaker 2: I think they've actually taken a step back, believe it

639
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 2: or not. Even the personnel has been better.

640
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:59,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again they're I don't really bottomize this. I'm

641
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 1: staying away from this game because I do think that

642
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,160
Speaker 1: the potential for a back door cover is right there.

643
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 1: And again I do think that in addition to the

644
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 1: weather and in addition to the Patriots, I do think

645
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:09,440
Speaker 1: the loss of Gronk Cowskin, I'm not expecting him to

646
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 1: play in this game. Base and everything we've heard is

647
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,920
Speaker 1: the fact that he is such a good blocker that

648
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 1: the fact that he's not there, I think really opens

649
00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:19,159
Speaker 1: up sort of pressure to get I'm Brady, which I

650
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 1: think could.

651
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 2: Have understand that. I can understand that. I will say

652
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,560
Speaker 2: this though, having those three wide receivers, the Dolphins don't

653
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 2: have the juice to stop all of those guys, and

654
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 2: even in that rain. Yet you know, in that game

655
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:32,400
Speaker 2: on Sunday night at AB come down with that incredible

656
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 2: throw in the end zone, Like we're probably looking at different,

657
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,680
Speaker 2: like that's the thing in a perfect scenario right where

658
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 2: schemes aren't as good, but the talent on the field

659
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 2: is those plays get made by Antonio Brown by Mike Evans,

660
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 2: and I think those guys are gonna eat and it's

661
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,440
Speaker 2: gonna be a lot too much for the Dolphins.

662
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 1: That is fair. I certainly expect them to win, but

663
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 1: I'm I'm gonna stay away from the potential for a backdoor.

664
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:59,480
Speaker 2: Covert using Leonard Fournette. I think in that game, I

665
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:00,919
Speaker 2: think you're gonn see a little bit more of that

666
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:02,960
Speaker 2: going forward. I think I think the Bucks are starting

667
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 2: to figure out what I think the Chiefs are figuring

668
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 2: out too, which is we got to have some kind

669
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:09,639
Speaker 2: of balance here. We have to change. We can't just be,

670
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 2: you know, throwing the ball sixty times a game. We

671
00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 2: can't do that anymore.

672
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:16,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, how about the Titans are now visiting the Jaguars.

673
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 1: The Titans are laying for. The total is forty eight

674
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 1: and a half. Can the Titans lose to the two

675
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,159
Speaker 1: worst teams in football and back to back weeks?

676
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 2: No, because the only team that's, you know, really even

677
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,879
Speaker 2: more just a hot mess right now than the Titans

678
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:33,439
Speaker 2: might be the Jaguars and probably the Houston Texans, right so, oh,

679
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 2: the Texans. You know, I would have said the same

680
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 2: thing with the Jets. But you know, I think everybody

681
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 2: kind of forgets that when you take away not one,

682
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,720
Speaker 2: but two big targets like that in one game, it

683
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 2: is really tough to go on the road and win.

684
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 2: I think some of this side stuff this week with

685
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 2: Erbin Meyer is going to be a huge distraction to

686
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:53,120
Speaker 2: a team that is not a veteran team that is

687
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 2: not going to be able to put it aside. This

688
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 2: is a bad situation here for the Jaguars. I don't.

689
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 2: That being said, this is not a game I feel

690
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 2: comfortable investing in it all, not in the over, not

691
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 2: the under, and not in the number. I just don't.

692
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 2: Because the health of the Tennessee Titans, their lack of defense,

693
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 2: coming off a terrible loss last week, there just seemed

694
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 2: to be a team I think that from a confidence standpoint,

695
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 2: is reeling a little bit. They had expectations, they added

696
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 2: Julio Jones, this is going to be a team that

697
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:23,160
Speaker 2: was really going to start to click up into that

698
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 2: elite notch right back to back years in the playoffs.

699
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 2: This is our year where all our chips in and

700
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 2: it's got on the opposite direction, partially because of play

701
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 2: but partially because of the injuries. That being said, I

702
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:37,320
Speaker 2: still think they win this football game. So does Vegas too,

703
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 2: because there minus two hundred on the money line. But

704
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 2: at the same time, man, I don't know how you

705
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 2: feel comfortable with a four or any number here, Like

706
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 2: it's just it's just not a comfortable situation here with

707
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 2: the Titans right now, especially on the road. If this

708
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 2: was in Tennessee, I feel more comfortable, But not on

709
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 2: the road. I struggle here back to back road games

710
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 2: with them.

711
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 1: If both Julio Jones and A. J. Brown were playing,

712
00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 1: would you take the four?

713
00:29:58,240 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 2: Yeah?

714
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 1: Absolutely, one of Julio Jones and AJ Brown were playing,

715
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 1: probably yeah. And I expect, like you, neither one of

716
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 1: them is going to play in this.

717
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 2: Because I feel like they can get away with it,

718
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 2: and they you know, last week they had to get

719
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 2: away with it. This week. Yeah, you're sort of rolling

720
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 2: the dice and gambling what you can. But I think

721
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 2: that they will take that gamble.

722
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 1: I mean, I lean, I lean Tennessee.

723
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 2: That tells you everything you need to know. It does

724
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 2: your your sighing and harrumphing tells you why this game

725
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 2: is a bad investment.

726
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 1: So no, you're right, You're right. I can't take the

727
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 1: Jaguars just because I can never take the Jaguars because, again,

728
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 1: regardless of how I might handicap it or how I

729
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 1: might look at it, Urban Meyer is like breaks all

730
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 1: models that you could do, because he's such a distraction.

731
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:49,240
Speaker 1: He's in over his head so much that I just

732
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 1: think you can never back them. At the same time, look,

733
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 1: we probably watched that game a little closer than most

734
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 1: people just because it was the Jets and the Titans

735
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 1: just they've got Derrick Henry and they really have nothing

736
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 1: else to rely on when those two receivers are out,

737
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:06,640
Speaker 1: assuming they're out again. If I had to pick a side,

738
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 1: I guess I would go with the Titans, but I

739
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 1: don't want to, so I am staying away. You're right

740
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 1: also with the Total, because again, you know, I imagine that

741
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 1: the Titans will try to, you know, run Derek Henry

742
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 1: as much as possible, and that usually.

743
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 2: Again, but look, Trevor Lawrence can make plays, and that's

744
00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 2: better thing you can't. You know, Trevor Lawrence is going

745
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 2: to get better as the season goes on. His ability

746
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 2: to make plays. Should were you I think about this total?

747
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, how about the Eagles are visiting the Panthers. The

748
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 1: Panthers are laying four total forty four and a half.

749
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 2: Ah the Eagles, Oh, who are the Eagles? This is

750
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 2: a This is a tricky one here. I will say this.

751
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 2: We talked at length this week about, you know, the

752
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 2: test of the Panthers defense coming up against a really

753
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 2: good Cowboys team this week offensively, and you know, and

754
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 2: we got checked a little bit here. That being said, Panthers,

755
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 2: I think get back to business at home. I like

756
00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 2: the Panthers in this game. I like them on the

757
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,320
Speaker 2: three and a half. I just don't like the Eagles

758
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 2: game plans. I just don't like the Eagles. The Eagles

759
00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 2: deficits didn't just vanish with Carson Wentz. They still have

760
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 2: offensive line problems. You knew that was going to be

761
00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 2: going in. They still finding their identity on offense. It's

762
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 2: nice to see like a Kenneth Gainwell starting to get

763
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:18,640
Speaker 2: some more play in this offense like he did in

764
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 2: Week one. I think they're a better team when they

765
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 2: do that, when they get Kenneth Gainwell involved. The problem

766
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 2: is sometimes they way too long. Their inability run the

767
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 2: football is a problem. I think Arnold's just playing really

768
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 2: good football right now, So I would just go right

769
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 2: with the three and a half here, keep it simple.

770
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:33,240
Speaker 2: With the Panthers, I do think they win this game.

771
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 2: I think defensively, they bounce back after a rough week

772
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 2: last week. Jalen Hurts not nearly the same kind of

773
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 2: competition as Dak Prescott in terms of playing quarterbacks. So

774
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 2: I'll go with the Panthers in this one at home

775
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 2: with a three and a half.

776
00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I might have a blind spot Joe

777
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 1: with the Eagles. I really do. And maybe it stems

778
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 1: from the fact that we obviously do fantasy and I

779
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 1: had projections for what I saw for the Eagles offense,

780
00:32:57,720 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 1: and then that Week one game, it's sort of all

781
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:03,240
Speaker 1: came to fruition against an admittedly very weak Atlanta team,

782
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 1: and I feel like I still cling to that. Again,

783
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:07,480
Speaker 1: I one of my picks for one of my best

784
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 1: bets was a couple of weeks ago was the Eagles

785
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 1: on Monday Night Football going to the Cowboys, and I

786
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 1: thought they played better, you know, even though they obviously

787
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:17,960
Speaker 1: had some unexpected offensive line issues coming to the week.

788
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 1: I actually I lean a little bit towards the Eagles

789
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 1: in this game. It's not a game that I want

790
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 1: to bet necessarily, just because again, I think without Christian McCaffrey,

791
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 1: I think that offense and I expect them to be

792
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 1: out in this game as well. Again nothing confirmed yet,

793
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 1: but I expect them to be out. I think that

794
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 1: offense really misses him, even though they were able to,

795
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 1: you know, sort of hang with Dallas. I mean it

796
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:40,560
Speaker 1: took a while, but I think their defense again without

797
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 1: j C. Horn, I think that really affects them. To me, actually, Joe,

798
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:46,760
Speaker 1: I do kind of lean me over in this game

799
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:49,479
Speaker 1: here because I do think that at the very least,

800
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 1: you saw an admittedly weak defense here against Kansas City.

801
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 1: But I think even if the Panthers sort of are

802
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 1: able to put up points, which I think you have

803
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 1: to expect at this point because the offense is working

804
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 1: right now, at the very least, if they get blown

805
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 1: out the Eagles, they're going to be able to put

806
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 1: up points sort of at the end of the game.

807
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:06,960
Speaker 1: You saw it against the Cowboys, just because you know,

808
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts can run around like a chicken with his

809
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 1: head cut off at this point, and they can again,

810
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 1: they can they can move the ball when they absolutely

811
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:16,560
Speaker 1: need to. So at forty four and a half, that

812
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:18,759
Speaker 1: strikes me as something where you know, I could see

813
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:19,839
Speaker 1: this being a you know.

814
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:24,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, even that number pretty easily.

815
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 1: So to me, I go over here. I'd like to

816
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 1: take that. The spread is something where I lean the Eagles,

817
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 1: but it's also something where I probably stay away from.

818
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 1: The Patriots are visiting the Texans. The total is well

819
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 1: for we'll get this out a second. The Patriots are

820
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 1: laying nine points and the total is thirty nine right

821
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:45,520
Speaker 1: here or thirty nine and a half. Actually, what do

822
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 1: you think, Joe.

823
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 2: I think the Patriots win this football game? Vegas does

824
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 2: to the confident the Patriots win this football for how

825
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 2: they win this football game, I don't. I'm hoping that,

826
00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 2: you know, and I think it should. I think there

827
00:34:57,880 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 2: should be a lot of confidence for HEC Jones in

828
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:04,000
Speaker 2: that loss. We talk about sometimes taking losses as actual

829
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:07,480
Speaker 2: moments were a loss in a certain way with a

830
00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 2: certain performance kind of tells you a lot about the player,

831
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 2: and I think we learned a lot about mac Jones

832
00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:15,880
Speaker 2: in terms of where he's at in his development. I

833
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:18,080
Speaker 2: think they should be more aggressive down the field. And

834
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:20,759
Speaker 2: what's ironic to me, the same thing that plagues the

835
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:23,439
Speaker 2: mac Jones and the Patriots offense is the same thing

836
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,280
Speaker 2: that plagues Tom Brady in that offense before he left,

837
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:29,880
Speaker 2: the lack of playmakers, the lack of that alpha wide

838
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:31,719
Speaker 2: receiver kind of guy that you can rely on in

839
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:34,319
Speaker 2: those big spots. Not having that guy that the other

840
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 2: defense has to account for is what makes the Patriots

841
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:41,080
Speaker 2: offense so middling at times. Now that being said, the

842
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 2: Patriots defense is playing very well right now, So I

843
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 2: think Houston's infer this is gonna be a rough stretch here.

844
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 2: Houston had to play Buffalo in Buffalo last week. Now

845
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 2: that you have to play the Patriots, I mean, Patriots

846
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 2: win this football game. I am not comfortable with the

847
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:58,800
Speaker 2: nine and I mean thirty nine and a half sounds

848
00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 2: like a joke where he got it just go over,

849
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:03,440
Speaker 2: you would think so. But I gotta tell you this

850
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:05,440
Speaker 2: feels like a huge trap. This whole game for me,

851
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:07,239
Speaker 2: is a giant stay away unless you're gonna put the

852
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:09,879
Speaker 2: Patriots in a parlay where you're gonna take like an

853
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:12,839
Speaker 2: easy Patriot win and easy win somewhere else and then

854
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 2: take an upset and put three things together and maybe

855
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:16,799
Speaker 2: make some money that way. That's the only way I'm

856
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:17,880
Speaker 2: getting involved in this one.

857
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 1: I think I'm on to lay the nine. I'm not

858
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:21,399
Speaker 1: like to me, I think that's a.

859
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:23,360
Speaker 2: Lot for a lack of Juggernaut offense.

860
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:27,400
Speaker 1: It's a lot. It is a lot. I fail to

861
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:30,880
Speaker 1: see how the Texans can stop anybody right now. I

862
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 1: think that if the Patriots want, they can run Damien

863
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 1: Harris thirty five times and they can put up twenty

864
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 1: eight points that way, Like, I realistically I think that.

865
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 1: But yeah, Mac Jones was impressive. You do have I

866
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 1: think the potential for a letdown game here, right, Joe, Like,

867
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 1: because even though they lost, they played their butts off

868
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 1: in that game.

869
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 2: Really, I think it's more potential for a letdown for

870
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:50,920
Speaker 2: the Bucks than for the Patriot.

871
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 1: I think that's also true.

872
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 2: I think the Patriots actually left that game going. We

873
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:57,279
Speaker 2: were this close. We were just close to the defending chance.

874
00:36:57,280 --> 00:36:59,279
Speaker 1: It's the same time, though, you put in that much

875
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 1: of an effort into what is an emotional game and

876
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 1: you come that close, even a loss is still a

877
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:06,359
Speaker 1: letdown game. But certainly for the Bucks for sure, you

878
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 1: can have that possibility. But it's possible for the Patriots.

879
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:10,719
Speaker 1: But either way, man, first of all, a total with

880
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 1: the Texans. I don't care what it is like I'm

881
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 1: staying away from it just because again, they could very

882
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 1: easily get shut out at any given point. But the

883
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:21,320
Speaker 1: bottom line is, I think that that Patriots defense is legitimate.

884
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 1: I've thought this for a while, So they could potentially

885
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 1: pitch a shut out here, you know, like well, I.

886
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:30,759
Speaker 2: Think the turnover on defense or a pick six, that's

887
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 2: where you hit.

888
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:33,840
Speaker 1: I'm not worried about a backdoor cover here because I

889
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 1: don't trust the Texans to be able to move the

890
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:38,839
Speaker 1: ball enough to score to get that back door cover.

891
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 1: So if it's under ten, I'm not kidding. I'm fine

892
00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 1: taking this game. I realize it sounds ludicrous because it's

893
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 1: a Patriots laying nine points, which really, you know, they

894
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 1: don't have the horses to They don't.

895
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 2: They don't have the horses for that right, I don't care, man,

896
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:54,840
Speaker 2: But the defense does. And if you anticipate them getting

897
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:57,880
Speaker 2: and if you believe that they score on defense in

898
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:00,560
Speaker 2: this game, which is very very possible, and the nine

899
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 2: is very comfortable when it starts, I'm taking it could

900
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 2: probably be eleven by the time I'm taking it.

901
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 1: Now, that's correct. That's a good point, Joe. That's just

902
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 1: part of what we do we're looking at I'm taking

903
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 1: it now like I'm taking now. I'm not waiting for

904
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 1: anybody to sort of see where it goes. I'm taking

905
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:16,359
Speaker 1: it now before it moves. Let's get to our next

906
00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:18,799
Speaker 1: game here, Joe, we can talk about the Lions are

907
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:21,879
Speaker 1: visiting the Vikings. Vikings are seven and a half point

908
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 1: favorites here and the totals forty nine and a half.

909
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:28,600
Speaker 2: Ah, the Vikings another tough one here. It's funny because

910
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:30,360
Speaker 2: you know, you and I always talked about the Baseball

911
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:33,439
Speaker 2: four outcome games. This past week when I had Chris

912
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:36,520
Speaker 2: Meety on the show for DFS, we ran away from

913
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:39,839
Speaker 2: this game between the Cleveland Browns and the Vikings last

914
00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 2: week because we said, this is four outcomes written all over.

915
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:43,400
Speaker 2: This could be a blow out on either side or

916
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:46,759
Speaker 2: disgusting like you know, sixteen thirteen kind of slugfests, whatever,

917
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:49,239
Speaker 2: and it's very closer to that. We're all a said

918
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 2: and done. The Vikings at home. They desperately need a

919
00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 2: W here in the worst way. Ye Sometimes it's just

920
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 2: as simple as looking for the team that needs the W.

921
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 2: That being said, what gives you pause is Detroit doesn't quit.

922
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 2: In the past, we've seen Detroit quit a lot. I

923
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 2: think Minnesota wins this football game, but I would like

924
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:11,359
Speaker 2: the Detroit side of the plus seven and a half.

925
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:13,560
Speaker 2: I think that's a big number right now. I think

926
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:15,399
Speaker 2: that's a number it's gonna shrink to seven or even

927
00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 2: six and a half by the time we get closer

928
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:21,839
Speaker 2: potentially too. I just feel like the Lions, whether you know,

929
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 2: they can't stack up talent wise to most teams, but

930
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 2: the effort level is undeniable when you watch them play.

931
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,360
Speaker 2: They spread the ball around a little bit. You know,

932
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:32,839
Speaker 2: Khalif Raymond's played well, quind De Ciphas has played well.

933
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 2: Monros Saint Brown had a very good game. You know,

934
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 2: they're starting to kind of figure it out a little bit. Offensively,

935
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 2: disappointing game for them, no doubt they're gonna have a

936
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:43,440
Speaker 2: lot of disappointments. But seven and a half is a

937
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 2: very big number for a Minnesota Vikings defense that ever

938
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:51,360
Speaker 2: since the preseason, really hasn't blown the doors off anybody

939
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:53,840
Speaker 2: and shown you that they are getting back to what

940
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:55,359
Speaker 2: they were a couple of years ago. So I would

941
00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 2: take the Lions and the seven and a half in

942
00:39:56,800 --> 00:39:59,399
Speaker 2: this one. I still think Minnesota wins his football game,

943
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:00,839
Speaker 2: but I think seven and a half is too much.

944
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:05,360
Speaker 1: If forced to pick aside, I would take the Lions

945
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 1: with the hook because I just think that it has

946
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:09,920
Speaker 1: back to recover written all over it. But it's just

947
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 1: a stay away from me man like because realistically, the

948
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:16,320
Speaker 1: Vikings should be able to win this game pretty handily.

949
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:18,480
Speaker 1: But like you mentioned, and there's something to be said,

950
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:21,520
Speaker 1: the Lions don't quit ever, and so you know, kudos

951
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:23,840
Speaker 1: to Dan Campbell, who we all made fun of a lot.

952
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:25,920
Speaker 1: But it's just to stay away from me. A divisional

953
00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:29,040
Speaker 1: game where the Vikings are desperate, but the Lions don't quit.

954
00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:31,400
Speaker 1: Totals total, stay away from me. Not a game I

955
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:33,800
Speaker 1: want to touch. Nor is this one, Joe. The Bears

956
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 1: are visiting the Raiders. It's a dead number where the

957
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 1: Raiders are laying five and a half. The totals forty

958
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:40,640
Speaker 1: five and a half. You obviously have the Raiders coming

959
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:42,879
Speaker 1: off the short week. Dave Montgomery's going to be out

960
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 1: for four to six weeks. That just came across the

961
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 1: wire as we were recording this, so he's obviously not

962
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 1: going to play in this game. We don't know who

963
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:50,120
Speaker 1: the quarterback is going to be in this game for

964
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 1: the Bears. So this is not something where I want

965
00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 1: to lock in value right now. I don't think Vegas

966
00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 1: knows what to do with this. I don't know what

967
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 1: to do with this. It's a complete stay away for me.

968
00:40:57,520 --> 00:40:59,560
Speaker 1: What do you think run away right?

969
00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:04,839
Speaker 2: For outcomes written all over this bad boy? Too many variables.

970
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 2: Variables do not make for a good investment. You've got

971
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 2: lots of other games. Let this one go away.

972
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:14,120
Speaker 1: I agree, Let's just move on Brown's visiting the Chargers.

973
00:41:14,480 --> 00:41:18,319
Speaker 1: The Chargers are the Browns, I'm sorry, are laying one point.

974
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:21,960
Speaker 1: Although it's back and forth here between you know, not

975
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:24,320
Speaker 1: that it really matters, but in some books the Chargers

976
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 1: are laying a point. In other books, the Browns are

977
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:29,279
Speaker 1: laying a point. Right now, our consensus line is the

978
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 1: Browns laying a point and the total is forty nine

979
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:32,879
Speaker 1: and a half.

980
00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:35,520
Speaker 2: What do you think I'm going to lean towards the

981
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:36,160
Speaker 2: Chargers here?

982
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:36,440
Speaker 1: Yeah?

983
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:38,520
Speaker 2: I like what I've seen out of Herbert this year,

984
00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:40,839
Speaker 2: and look, the Browns are a very good football team.

985
00:41:41,160 --> 00:41:43,239
Speaker 2: But you know, this is back to back road games

986
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:46,640
Speaker 2: for them. That's a little tough. I think that the

987
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:50,880
Speaker 2: way justin Herbert's played this year is super impressive. The

988
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:53,839
Speaker 2: defenses played well. It was a big game for them,

989
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:57,279
Speaker 2: big victory. This is going to be a close one,

990
00:41:57,360 --> 00:41:59,360
Speaker 2: and Vegas is telling it's gonna be a close one.

991
00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:02,319
Speaker 2: I'm gonna in towards the Chargers here once again. This

992
00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:05,520
Speaker 2: is one where you can put it. I'd rather take

993
00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 2: the Chargers on the money line and just not even

994
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 2: worry about the points or the points are small anyway.

995
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 2: But if you want to do either one and put

996
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 2: it in with something else, I don't think you just

997
00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:16,720
Speaker 2: met this standing alone because it just doesn't have enough value.

998
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:17,800
Speaker 2: So what you want to do is you want to

999
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:20,279
Speaker 2: put this if you feel good about the Chargers, you

1000
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:23,120
Speaker 2: take the one. If you're getting it, whatever you're getting

1001
00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:25,399
Speaker 2: right now on FANDUL, you're getting plus one. I would

1002
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 2: take the plus one there at the minus one p. Fifteen,

1003
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 2: and I would put that in with something else here

1004
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:32,319
Speaker 2: and then just continue to build from there into like

1005
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 2: a couple games together. But I don't know, Dan, I mean,

1006
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:37,799
Speaker 2: I'm very impressed with the Browns, but I think it's

1007
00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 2: asking a lot of them to continue to be the

1008
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 2: road warriors here, you know, going to Minnesota one week

1009
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 2: and then having to turn right back around and going

1010
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:46,360
Speaker 2: to LA the next I think that's a lot.

1011
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:48,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was really impressed with the Chargers, and I

1012
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:52,440
Speaker 1: think that like this is the Chargers, Joe, that I

1013
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:55,759
Speaker 1: felt like every preseason coming in, every year, we were like,

1014
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:58,839
Speaker 1: you know, Chargers could do this. Chargers could be really good.

1015
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:01,239
Speaker 1: They have a very solid deep, the offensive line is good,

1016
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:03,320
Speaker 1: They've got a lot of pieces, and it's like the

1017
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:06,319
Speaker 1: optimal point of where they are. They're well coached now.

1018
00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:08,920
Speaker 1: So if I lean one way, it's basically a pick

1019
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:11,240
Speaker 1: them essentially. At this point, I would lean the Chargers.

1020
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:13,759
Speaker 1: But really, Joe, actually the way I lean is the

1021
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:16,480
Speaker 1: under here. It's forty nine and a half. The Browns

1022
00:43:16,560 --> 00:43:19,840
Speaker 1: defense is so good. Like I know, last week was

1023
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 1: a big disappointment from a fantasy perspective. Whatever from Kirk Cousins,

1024
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 1: I actually thought that the Vikings would pull that game out.

1025
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 1: They were getting I don't know, two points, I think

1026
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:29,520
Speaker 1: two and a half points. I thought the Vikings might

1027
00:43:29,560 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 1: be able to pull that game out. But for me,

1028
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:34,839
Speaker 1: I think their defense is so solid that even an

1029
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:36,920
Speaker 1: explosive offense like the Charters, I think they're going to

1030
00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:40,239
Speaker 1: be able to hang with them. And conversely, not only

1031
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:44,080
Speaker 1: is the Charters defense very good, but the Browns offensively

1032
00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:47,640
Speaker 1: look a little kind of like we have the run

1033
00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 1: game that is what is going to work. Maybe it

1034
00:43:50,120 --> 00:43:52,000
Speaker 1: was just last week. That's the worst game I've ever

1035
00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:54,560
Speaker 1: seen Baker Mayfield play in my life like he was.

1036
00:43:54,840 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 2: And this is Baker. Baker is good, forever inconsistent, And

1037
00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:00,840
Speaker 2: which is why I you're gonna laugh when I say this,

1038
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:02,880
Speaker 2: because you're gonna say that's just Joe saying Chubb's not

1039
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 2: getting Chubb's not getting enough work, like Chubbs should be

1040
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:09,000
Speaker 2: touching the football more. I think they got into two

1041
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:11,360
Speaker 2: weeks ago, gotten to that little groove there with Kareem Hunt,

1042
00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:13,360
Speaker 2: and they started to love Kareem Hunt because that was

1043
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:16,759
Speaker 2: a perfect matchup for Kareem Hunt against that defense. They

1044
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 2: should have gotten away from it in this game. They

1045
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 2: should have been feeding the ball to Nick Chubb Moore.

1046
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:22,839
Speaker 2: I think if they feed the ball more than Nick Chubb,

1047
00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:24,439
Speaker 2: they have a real chance to win this football game

1048
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:27,680
Speaker 2: in this one, because Herbert's just playing really good football

1049
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:30,919
Speaker 2: right now. I don't know if they're gonna do that there.

1050
00:44:31,120 --> 00:44:34,319
Speaker 2: I think they're forgetting what made them so successful last year,

1051
00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:37,200
Speaker 2: which is running that play action off of Baker Mayfield

1052
00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:39,440
Speaker 2: and Nick Chubb. And if Nick Chubb is only getting

1053
00:44:39,440 --> 00:44:41,880
Speaker 2: fifteen carries instead of twenty two carries, it's a big difference.

1054
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:43,719
Speaker 2: The defense doesn't commit as much.

1055
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, so if you are, if you don't follow us

1056
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:50,160
Speaker 1: at Fantasy Bros, you should be aware that Joe is

1057
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 1: Nick Chubb's biggest fan. And if Joe, if Joe were

1058
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:55,279
Speaker 1: the if Joe was the Browns coach, Nick Chubb would

1059
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:57,400
Speaker 1: get forty carries a week, just so you know, it

1060
00:44:57,400 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 1: would be that and then like one play action pass

1061
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:03,319
Speaker 1: club Chubb Club that is Joe. I also think, by

1062
00:45:03,320 --> 00:45:05,759
Speaker 1: the way, that the loss of Jarvis Landry, who you

1063
00:45:05,760 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 1: know is going to be out again this week, is

1064
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 1: a big deal. That's sort of a safety blanket there

1065
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 1: or so to me, I lean the under man. I

1066
00:45:14,080 --> 00:45:16,160
Speaker 1: get that, you know, I think two really good defenses.

1067
00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:18,239
Speaker 1: I could see that Chargers being a little sluggish on

1068
00:45:18,280 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 1: the short week. I don't think that the Browns want

1069
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:22,880
Speaker 1: to get too shoot out anyway, So I lean towards

1070
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:25,320
Speaker 1: the under This is a game, Joe, so many variables.

1071
00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:27,440
Speaker 1: I don't want to do the app the only unbeaten

1072
00:45:27,480 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 1: team here, the Cardinals at home against the forty nine ers,

1073
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 1: laying five and a half points, the total is fifty. Look,

1074
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:36,239
Speaker 1: we don't even know if it's going to be Trey

1075
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:38,000
Speaker 1: Lance at this point, right because suddenly it's come out

1076
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:39,440
Speaker 1: to be like, oh, there's a Bruce for Jimmy. He

1077
00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:41,480
Speaker 1: may play Corross knows what's going on here. What do

1078
00:45:41,520 --> 00:45:41,839
Speaker 1: you think?

1079
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 2: I think they should play Trey Lance. That's what I think.

1080
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:45,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, of course.

1081
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:48,839
Speaker 2: That being said, I like the Cardinals in this game.

1082
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:51,360
Speaker 2: I am not impressed by the forty nine Ers this

1083
00:45:51,440 --> 00:45:54,480
Speaker 2: year at all. I'm just not. And the one thing

1084
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 2: I will say it's, you know, in this league, especially

1085
00:45:57,040 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 2: when you have a quarterback that's locked in, it makes

1086
00:45:59,560 --> 00:46:01,440
Speaker 2: all the differ. Friends, and Kyler Murray right now is

1087
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 2: locked in. Like Kyler Murray's playing the best football he

1088
00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:07,560
Speaker 2: has ever played, and the fact that they surrounded him

1089
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:10,120
Speaker 2: with similar weapons besides Hopkins make them a lot harder.

1090
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 2: I was really impressed with Chase Edmonds in that game too.

1091
00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:14,600
Speaker 2: I've never been a big Edmunds guy, but he ran

1092
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:17,759
Speaker 2: hard in that game last week. I mean physical hard,

1093
00:46:17,800 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 2: and that's not usually like the Chase Edmunds game as

1094
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 2: We're like, yeah, let's get him out in space a

1095
00:46:22,160 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 2: little bit, and you know, let's get him out wide. No, no, no,

1096
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:27,399
Speaker 2: he was running hard in that game, knocking guys over,

1097
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:29,760
Speaker 2: and that's that's a new dynamic. And then he adding Connor,

1098
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:31,440
Speaker 2: who's a physical back, and the goal line in the

1099
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:34,880
Speaker 2: short yard situations. Arizona all of a sudden can beat

1100
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:37,480
Speaker 2: you in lots of different ways. They still defensively have

1101
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:41,400
Speaker 2: some hiccups there to clean up, but overall, you know,

1102
00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:44,799
Speaker 2: right now, I think Arizona is the real deal. And

1103
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:46,719
Speaker 2: it's not just because they beat the Rams last week.

1104
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 2: It's because of the way they've played all year so far,

1105
00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 2: and because the forty nine ers continue to struggle with

1106
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:56,160
Speaker 2: the identity who's quarterback, who's running back, who's this? Who

1107
00:46:56,160 --> 00:46:56,359
Speaker 2: is that?

1108
00:46:56,400 --> 00:46:57,120
Speaker 1: I don't like that.

1109
00:46:57,360 --> 00:46:59,040
Speaker 2: I'm gonna lean towards the Cardinals. I know it's a

1110
00:46:59,040 --> 00:47:01,000
Speaker 2: big number, with the five and a half half typically,

1111
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 2: you know, I think that should give people pause. I'll

1112
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:07,200
Speaker 2: say this, if Trey Lance is playing in this game,

1113
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:09,279
Speaker 2: I would take the points with the forty nine ers.

1114
00:47:09,520 --> 00:47:11,840
Speaker 2: If he is not, I would take the Cardinals and

1115
00:47:11,880 --> 00:47:12,640
Speaker 2: the points on the other side.

1116
00:47:12,680 --> 00:47:15,520
Speaker 1: So you're waiting basically in the end to make any Oh.

1117
00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 2: Gosh, she's gonna stink because this line's gonna change, right.

1118
00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:21,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, A stay away from me man on all sides,

1119
00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:24,719
Speaker 1: just because again there're too many things. And look, you know,

1120
00:47:25,000 --> 00:47:27,480
Speaker 1: one of my favorite bets that I made this year,

1121
00:47:27,480 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 1: even though it was discussing, was the Vikings when they

1122
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 1: were I forget how many points the were getting, maybe

1123
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:33,160
Speaker 1: five and a half or whatever, four and a half

1124
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 1: against the Cardinals, because I did think that that was

1125
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:37,760
Speaker 1: a game that they would stay close. And this strikes

1126
00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:39,440
Speaker 1: me as that type of game too. And again I

1127
00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:41,840
Speaker 1: can't bet it here with the forty nine ers because

1128
00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:44,000
Speaker 1: I just don't know who's a quarterback and I don't

1129
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:45,399
Speaker 1: know what's going on in that game. I also can't

1130
00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 1: bet the total for now. I don't know though how

1131
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:49,600
Speaker 1: I feel about it. I'm not taking the Cardinals because

1132
00:47:49,640 --> 00:47:51,440
Speaker 1: I do think that the Cardinals, as good as they

1133
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:55,000
Speaker 1: look at various times, they're gonna throw out these games

1134
00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:58,279
Speaker 1: like against the Vikings, where they're just not gonna be

1135
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:00,759
Speaker 1: able to put a team away and keep it close.

1136
00:48:00,840 --> 00:48:02,160
Speaker 1: So this is just to stay away from me in

1137
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:04,040
Speaker 1: a divisional game. But it's one I'm going to be

1138
00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:06,359
Speaker 1: excited to watch. I hope it's Trey Lance. Another one

1139
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:07,840
Speaker 1: I'm actually going to be excited to watch, which I

1140
00:48:07,880 --> 00:48:10,040
Speaker 1: didn't think I would even though it's so cool, is

1141
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:13,720
Speaker 1: the Giants visiting the Cowboys. Here, the Cowboys are laying seven.

1142
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:17,680
Speaker 1: The total is fifty to Daniel Jones playing by far

1143
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:19,920
Speaker 1: the best football he's ever played in his career. Cowboys

1144
00:48:19,960 --> 00:48:22,359
Speaker 1: looking a little bit like the Juggernaut that we thought

1145
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:24,440
Speaker 1: they might be able to look like if everything went right.

1146
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:25,080
Speaker 1: What do you think here?

1147
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:30,440
Speaker 2: Cowboys is smash ooh, smash this game they are. Cowboys

1148
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 2: are just significantly better personnel wise than the Giants. And

1149
00:48:35,520 --> 00:48:38,720
Speaker 2: typically I wouldn't do this because typically in division games

1150
00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:41,960
Speaker 2: get very dicey, especially old rivalry games, they get very tight,

1151
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:47,160
Speaker 2: you know. But I'm in a long conversation again. On

1152
00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 2: the IDP Show last week, the other defense we talked

1153
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:54,360
Speaker 2: about was the Cowboys and the difference that Michael Parsons

1154
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:58,200
Speaker 2: makes that what Diggs is doing right now, but it's

1155
00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 2: really what Parsons is doing, because what Parsons does is

1156
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:03,640
Speaker 2: he just kind of wrecks everything. So even though it's

1157
00:49:03,680 --> 00:49:07,520
Speaker 2: not showing up necessarily in the tackle numbers all the time. Yeah,

1158
00:49:07,520 --> 00:49:09,799
Speaker 2: when you watch him play, he's everywhere in the right

1159
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 2: place and he's shutting other things down because he's such

1160
00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:15,239
Speaker 2: a fast linebacker. It's like when you watch Devin White

1161
00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:16,839
Speaker 2: sometimes too. He's just always in the right place at

1162
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:18,920
Speaker 2: the right time. And for a young kid to have

1163
00:49:19,000 --> 00:49:20,840
Speaker 2: that kind of instincts is just huge. And him and

1164
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:23,799
Speaker 2: Vandersh together right now are playing really well. So for me,

1165
00:49:24,320 --> 00:49:26,440
Speaker 2: I think that's just a lot for Daniel Jones, who

1166
00:49:26,520 --> 00:49:30,440
Speaker 2: has been very mistake prone. They're down to wide receivers.

1167
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:32,319
Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna get either of them back

1168
00:49:32,360 --> 00:49:35,520
Speaker 2: this week. I don't thinks Tony is enough to kind

1169
00:49:35,520 --> 00:49:39,120
Speaker 2: of make up that deficit necessarily. I think they put

1170
00:49:39,120 --> 00:49:40,799
Speaker 2: a hurtin on the Giants. I think this is a

1171
00:49:40,800 --> 00:49:43,080
Speaker 2: statement game for the Cowboys. I think this is gonna

1172
00:49:43,080 --> 00:49:45,160
Speaker 2: be a bad scene and Giant fans are gonna feel like, hey,

1173
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:47,520
Speaker 2: we're going there with some momentum and the Cowboys are

1174
00:49:47,560 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 2: just going to shut it down. So I know it's seven,

1175
00:49:50,320 --> 00:49:52,680
Speaker 2: I would take the seven right now because I fear

1176
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:54,359
Speaker 2: it could be nine by the time we get there.

1177
00:49:54,640 --> 00:49:57,799
Speaker 1: Oh my gosh. Okay, all right, so I do not

1178
00:49:57,920 --> 00:50:01,960
Speaker 1: feel nearly as confident as you do. Look very easily,

1179
00:50:02,040 --> 00:50:04,680
Speaker 1: I could see the Cowboys destroying them in this game.

1180
00:50:04,719 --> 00:50:07,319
Speaker 1: And I think that without Shepherd and without Slayton as

1181
00:50:07,360 --> 00:50:09,920
Speaker 1: I expect again in this game, I think that's really dicey,

1182
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:12,840
Speaker 1: because I do think that Trayvon Diggs is playing what

1183
00:50:13,200 --> 00:50:14,279
Speaker 1: as well as anybody.

1184
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 2: Else, has been out of his mind. But absolutely, once again,

1185
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:22,520
Speaker 2: it's a complete package, and dan Quinn's done a very

1186
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:26,680
Speaker 2: good job of kind of rebuilding the confidence of this

1187
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:29,520
Speaker 2: defensive unit. But at the same time, if you were

1188
00:50:29,520 --> 00:50:31,640
Speaker 2: watching closely last year, again, second half, a lot of

1189
00:50:31,680 --> 00:50:33,719
Speaker 2: people start to tail off towards the last six weeks

1190
00:50:33,719 --> 00:50:35,360
Speaker 2: of football, when all of a sudden, you know, fantasy

1191
00:50:35,440 --> 00:50:37,520
Speaker 2: isn't as much of a thing. Right When Van Dersh

1192
00:50:37,560 --> 00:50:40,160
Speaker 2: came back healthy, they were not the doormat they were

1193
00:50:40,280 --> 00:50:42,160
Speaker 2: earlier in the year either. They started to pick it

1194
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:43,720
Speaker 2: up a little bit and those games were a little closer,

1195
00:50:43,719 --> 00:50:46,480
Speaker 2: a little tighter, and they were not embarrassing on defense

1196
00:50:46,520 --> 00:50:48,080
Speaker 2: as they were in the beginning of the season they

1197
00:50:48,120 --> 00:50:50,720
Speaker 2: were just flat out embarrassing. This year, they are definitely

1198
00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:53,360
Speaker 2: not embarrassing this year. They're playing better and they're Abody

1199
00:50:53,360 --> 00:50:55,080
Speaker 2: gets some of the older guys in rotation too, which

1200
00:50:55,120 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 2: is good. So they're getting them a little breeders, so

1201
00:50:56,640 --> 00:50:58,480
Speaker 2: they're a little fresher in some of these moments of

1202
00:50:58,480 --> 00:51:00,440
Speaker 2: these games too, and that's huge because they little bit

1203
00:51:00,440 --> 00:51:02,840
Speaker 2: more depth than they had last year. Also, I just

1204
00:51:02,880 --> 00:51:05,320
Speaker 2: think that the Cowboys are the class of this division

1205
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:06,920
Speaker 2: right now, and they're just gonna put a hurting on

1206
00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:09,440
Speaker 2: the Giants because I don't the Giants can't afford to

1207
00:51:09,480 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 2: play the way they did last week against New Orleans

1208
00:51:12,760 --> 00:51:15,880
Speaker 2: because Dak Prescott is going to destroy them if they

1209
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:18,200
Speaker 2: give the same opportunities to Dak Prescott that they gave

1210
00:51:18,680 --> 00:51:21,719
Speaker 2: to James Winston and Tastar last week.

1211
00:51:21,960 --> 00:51:24,480
Speaker 1: All Right, I'm staying away from it personally, but I

1212
00:51:24,560 --> 00:51:26,840
Speaker 1: like your confidence. Let's go. This is a game that

1213
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:30,480
Speaker 1: maybe we don't deserve, but we need right now, and

1214
00:51:30,520 --> 00:51:34,440
Speaker 1: that is the Bills visiting the Chiefs on Sunday Night football.

1215
00:51:34,719 --> 00:51:37,320
Speaker 1: The Chiefs right now are laying two and a half points.

1216
00:51:37,600 --> 00:51:40,960
Speaker 1: The total is eleventy billion. It's fifty six and a half.

1217
00:51:41,200 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 1: Fifty six and a half. Like, I don't even know

1218
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:46,520
Speaker 1: what you do with that. So, Joe, what do you

1219
00:51:46,560 --> 00:51:48,239
Speaker 1: think I.

1220
00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:50,680
Speaker 2: Like the Buffalo Bills plus one twenty on the money

1221
00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:52,279
Speaker 2: line just to win this game out right now. That's

1222
00:51:52,280 --> 00:51:54,520
Speaker 2: the best wager of all these That's the one I

1223
00:51:54,520 --> 00:51:57,640
Speaker 2: feel the safest about. Believe it or not, Buffalo Bills

1224
00:51:57,640 --> 00:52:01,719
Speaker 2: are playing tremendous Josh Allen has something to prove here

1225
00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:05,600
Speaker 2: in this game. And Kansas City, you know, I know

1226
00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:07,240
Speaker 2: they looked so good last week, but that was against

1227
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:09,440
Speaker 2: the Eagles and Tyree Hill, random, ok, and all that stuff.

1228
00:52:09,480 --> 00:52:12,320
Speaker 2: But I gotta tell you, there's just something that feels

1229
00:52:12,360 --> 00:52:14,319
Speaker 2: a little off right now with the Chiefs to me,

1230
00:52:14,400 --> 00:52:16,239
Speaker 2: and maybe this is it. Maybe this is the one

1231
00:52:16,239 --> 00:52:18,120
Speaker 2: they've circled and this is the game that's like, Okay,

1232
00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:19,799
Speaker 2: you know, we gotta play. Buffalo is a huge game.

1233
00:52:19,840 --> 00:52:21,880
Speaker 2: Maybe they've been looking ahead a little bit of this one.

1234
00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:23,560
Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, the fifty six and a

1235
00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:25,839
Speaker 2: half is a huge number. I would be shocked if

1236
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:29,200
Speaker 2: it went under. Still yeah, oh ditto, right right, It's

1237
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:31,920
Speaker 2: still a big number. But it's like it kind of feels.

1238
00:52:31,680 --> 00:52:34,719
Speaker 1: Like you can't bet the unders of all energy just

1239
00:52:35,239 --> 00:52:38,759
Speaker 1: that defense is so poor, and that's that has not

1240
00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:40,600
Speaker 1: been the case in recent years. That's the thing that

1241
00:52:40,640 --> 00:52:43,239
Speaker 1: I feel like we're not talking about enough. Like as

1242
00:52:43,280 --> 00:52:46,200
Speaker 1: good as the Chiefs offense, you know, continues to be like,

1243
00:52:46,239 --> 00:52:49,200
Speaker 1: their defense is abysmal. And part of the reason why

1244
00:52:49,239 --> 00:52:51,239
Speaker 1: they were so good is that they're their defense was

1245
00:52:51,360 --> 00:52:54,160
Speaker 1: very bend. But don't break in these games. You know,

1246
00:52:54,239 --> 00:52:57,800
Speaker 1: they they had some personalities, and they had some injuries obviously,

1247
00:52:57,840 --> 00:53:00,600
Speaker 1: and they have had some injuries, but still well, that

1248
00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:02,920
Speaker 1: defense is basically a defense that you pick on. Right now,

1249
00:53:03,000 --> 00:53:06,040
Speaker 1: Josh Allen should go nuts, and it's really about whether

1250
00:53:06,120 --> 00:53:08,560
Speaker 1: or not Mahomes can go nuts against the Bills defense,

1251
00:53:08,600 --> 00:53:11,759
Speaker 1: by the way, which is playing extremely well.

1252
00:53:12,040 --> 00:53:14,719
Speaker 2: And without Poyer for two weeks, who's been hurt. So

1253
00:53:15,080 --> 00:53:17,280
Speaker 2: I don't know what Poyer status is yet for this week,

1254
00:53:17,360 --> 00:53:18,759
Speaker 2: but if they get him back to you, that's a

1255
00:53:18,880 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 2: huge piece in the secondary to return the look the

1256
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:25,640
Speaker 2: Buffalo Bills, you know, were measured last year and they

1257
00:53:25,640 --> 00:53:28,799
Speaker 2: were found lacking a little bit okay when it got

1258
00:53:28,840 --> 00:53:31,840
Speaker 2: down to the nitty gritty, But this is usually how

1259
00:53:31,920 --> 00:53:34,359
Speaker 2: it happens. Right Usually you have this team that you know,

1260
00:53:34,600 --> 00:53:36,560
Speaker 2: starts to feel good about itself, starts to pull itself

1261
00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:38,440
Speaker 2: out of the ashes, and then they run into the

1262
00:53:38,520 --> 00:53:41,439
Speaker 2: Juggernaut and they get checked and they go okay. And

1263
00:53:41,800 --> 00:53:44,239
Speaker 2: now it feels like, you know you're in a certain

1264
00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:46,160
Speaker 2: point here with the Chiefs where you know all the

1265
00:53:46,200 --> 00:53:49,080
Speaker 2: expectations constantly might be weighing on them a little bit.

1266
00:53:49,520 --> 00:53:51,239
Speaker 2: I think Buffalo is the team that comes in here

1267
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:54,319
Speaker 2: fast and loose, and they should And that's why, of

1268
00:53:54,360 --> 00:53:56,680
Speaker 2: all the things, I think your best ROI is that

1269
00:53:56,680 --> 00:53:57,560
Speaker 2: plus one twenty.

1270
00:53:57,840 --> 00:54:00,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do you like the Bills. If you like

1271
00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:02,520
Speaker 1: the Bills, you might as well take them on the

1272
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:04,120
Speaker 1: money line rather than getting the two and a half

1273
00:54:04,120 --> 00:54:04,759
Speaker 1: points at this point.

1274
00:54:04,840 --> 00:54:07,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know mat the points. I wouldn't scround

1275
00:54:07,040 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 2: the points of this game, all right.

1276
00:54:08,160 --> 00:54:11,560
Speaker 1: Monday night football cults are visiting the Ravens. The Ravens

1277
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:15,160
Speaker 1: are laying seven points. The total is forty seven.

1278
00:54:15,200 --> 00:54:17,200
Speaker 2: What do you think It's hard not to lean the

1279
00:54:17,280 --> 00:54:19,719
Speaker 2: Ravens in this game? For sure? With the seven, it

1280
00:54:19,719 --> 00:54:21,279
Speaker 2: would not shock me to see this go to seven

1281
00:54:21,360 --> 00:54:23,360
Speaker 2: and a half or even eight and a half or

1282
00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:25,040
Speaker 2: something by the time we get closer. I think this

1283
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:28,360
Speaker 2: one's gonna grow. I would lock this in now Baltimore

1284
00:54:28,360 --> 00:54:31,480
Speaker 2: at home on a Monday night. I would lock this in.

1285
00:54:32,400 --> 00:54:36,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's right. And I think who was it,

1286
00:54:36,360 --> 00:54:39,200
Speaker 1: David Coke maybe from you know, a great you know

1287
00:54:39,280 --> 00:54:41,759
Speaker 1: bookmaker over in Vegas that we talked about a couple

1288
00:54:41,760 --> 00:54:43,160
Speaker 1: of years ago, and he was always like, you know,

1289
00:54:43,400 --> 00:54:46,160
Speaker 1: John Harbad doesn't just want to win, he wants to

1290
00:54:46,200 --> 00:54:48,680
Speaker 1: break your spirit. And I think that that's what you

1291
00:54:48,719 --> 00:54:50,680
Speaker 1: are going to see here. And again, kudos to the

1292
00:54:50,719 --> 00:54:53,439
Speaker 1: Colts that came out. They played well, but again once

1293
00:54:53,480 --> 00:54:56,040
Speaker 1: as far from healthy, they're still sort of down, you know,

1294
00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:58,799
Speaker 1: in their receiving core. You know, I like Michael Pittman Jr.

1295
00:54:58,840 --> 00:55:01,040
Speaker 1: But I offense believe they're not a team that can

1296
00:55:01,120 --> 00:55:03,000
Speaker 1: really hang it again. The Ravens. They may get Rashad

1297
00:55:03,040 --> 00:55:05,720
Speaker 1: Bateman back here, which would help, maybe not or whatever,

1298
00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:09,120
Speaker 1: But I agree with you, Joe, I would take the

1299
00:55:09,920 --> 00:55:13,239
Speaker 1: Ravens here, and I probably look to lock it in

1300
00:55:13,320 --> 00:55:15,239
Speaker 1: now just in case of climbs higher than a field goal,

1301
00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:17,120
Speaker 1: because I higher than a touch on part of me,

1302
00:55:17,200 --> 00:55:19,400
Speaker 1: because I think with a touchdown at least, you you know,

1303
00:55:19,600 --> 00:55:22,960
Speaker 1: probably lock in hopefully at worst case of push. Joey,

1304
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:25,359
Speaker 1: that's it. That's all the games. Thank you so much

1305
00:55:25,400 --> 00:55:26,960
Speaker 1: for popping on with me today.

1306
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:30,200
Speaker 2: It's always a pleasure. I love spending quality time with

1307
00:55:30,239 --> 00:55:31,480
Speaker 2: my good friend Dan.

1308
00:55:31,360 --> 00:55:34,520
Speaker 1: Harris, so we'll be back on Thursday, as we always are,

1309
00:55:34,600 --> 00:55:37,319
Speaker 1: talking about our three best bets, or at least my

1310
00:55:37,320 --> 00:55:40,040
Speaker 1: three best bets, our guest three best bets. In the meantime,

1311
00:55:40,440 --> 00:55:42,560
Speaker 1: enjoy a couple of days off here from football betting.

1312
00:55:42,600 --> 00:56:01,839
Speaker 1: We'll talk to you again in a couple of days.