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Speaker 1: Hey everyone, I am Pat Fitzmorris, managing editor of Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros and Fantasy Pros, here to run through my favorite

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Speaker 1: player props for Week seventeen.

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Speaker 2: Well, after going twenty two and.

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Speaker 1: Seven on our player props over a four week stretch

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Speaker 1: from Week twelve to Week fifteen, we came to a

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Speaker 1: screeching halt in Week sixteen with a four and six record.

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Speaker 2: It could have been even worse.

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Speaker 1: We were two and six on Saturday before hitting a

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Speaker 1: couple of winners in the Packers Dolphins game on Christmas Day.

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Speaker 1: So I don't know about you. I'm eager to get

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Speaker 1: the bad taste out of my mouth. So let's get

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Speaker 1: to the week seventeen selections. And just a reminder that

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Speaker 1: all lines are courtesy of DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon.

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Speaker 1: All right, we will start with Gino Smith under one

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Speaker 1: point five touchdown passes. The under here seems like a bargain,

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Speaker 1: especially when you consider that it's minus one ten on

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Speaker 1: DraftKings instead of the standard minus one fifteen. This is

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Speaker 1: more about the Jets defense than about Gino himself. The

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Speaker 1: Jets have allowed just six touchdown passes in their last

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Speaker 1: twelve games, have not given up multiple touchdown passes to

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Speaker 1: any team during that twelve game stretch. The last quarterback

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Speaker 1: to throw multiple touchdown passes in a game against the

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Speaker 1: Jets Joe Burrow way back in Week three. Among the

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks they have held under two touchdown passes during this

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Speaker 1: twelve game stretch, Josh Allen twice, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers,

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Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff. So yeah, Gino has thrown multiple

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Speaker 1: touchdown passes in eleven to fifteen games this season, granted,

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Speaker 1: but he has thrown just one touchdown pass in each

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Speaker 1: of his last two games. I think the under is

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Speaker 1: a pretty good percentage play here. Dalvin Cook over seventy

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Speaker 1: one point five rushing yards against the Green Bay Packers.

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Speaker 1: Cook has topped this number in ten of his fifteen

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Speaker 1: outings this year, and he's averaging seventy three point eight

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Speaker 1: rushing yards per game. He gets a soft matchup against

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Speaker 1: the Packers, who's run defense ranks thirty second, dead last

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Speaker 1: in the league in DVA, and the Packers have faced

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Speaker 1: the sixth most running back carries this season and they're

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Speaker 1: giving up five point yards per carry on the year.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, this is a really good matchup.

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Speaker 1: And when Cook went against the Packers way back in

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Speaker 1: Week one, he carried twenty times for ninety yards, so

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Speaker 1: he has already hit. He's gone over this total in

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Speaker 1: his previous meeting against the Packers. He's averaged seventeen point

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Speaker 1: six carries a game over the last six games, and

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Speaker 1: he's had excuse me, over the last five games, and

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Speaker 1: he's had at least fourteen carries in every game during

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Speaker 1: that stretch, so he has in fact been a workhorse.

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Speaker 1: I think he gets over seventy one point five rushing

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Speaker 1: yards against Green Bay on Sunday, all right, Rashad whitees

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Speaker 1: over fifteen point five receiving yards. White has topped this

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Speaker 1: number in four of his last five games. He has

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Speaker 1: averaged five point six targets and five catches a game

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Speaker 1: during that stretch, along with twenty five point eight receiving yards.

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Speaker 1: So we have continued to see Tom Brady be a

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Speaker 1: checkdown machine in.

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Speaker 2: His old age. He does not like to take hits.

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Speaker 1: He does not like to stand around in the pocket

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Speaker 1: waiting for the pass rush to get him. He will

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Speaker 1: dump off to his running backs with abandon and even

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Speaker 1: though there are two running backs catching those passes, Rashad

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Speaker 1: White and Leonard Fournettes. There's plenty to go around. He's

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Speaker 1: targeted his running backs one hundred and thirty three times

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Speaker 1: this season, more than any other quarterback except Justin Herbert

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Speaker 1: of the Chargers. White snap counts have decreased slightly in

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Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks as the Buccaneers have leaned

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Speaker 1: a little more heavily on the veteran Leonard Fournettes, but

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Speaker 1: White has still played no fewer than twenty nine snaps

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Speaker 1: in any Buccaneers game since the start of November. And

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Speaker 1: I like the talented rookies chances to clear this real

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Speaker 1: satively modest yardage total fifteen point five receiving yards.

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Speaker 2: I like the over.

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Speaker 1: We'll get to the rest of this week's plays in

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Speaker 1: just a moment, but first, want to track all of

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Speaker 1: your wagers in one place. Check out the Betting prospicktracker

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Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com slash pick hyphen tracking. It syncs

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Speaker 1: up with your sportsbooks to tell you which of your

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Speaker 1: picks hit and which ones miss, and it gives you

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Speaker 1: a live look at what the public is doing, so

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Speaker 1: you can use real time tracking to determine which plays

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Speaker 1: to make and which ones to fade, get on the

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Speaker 1: leaderboard and quickly become a sharp by using the free

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Speaker 1: advice we have to offer at bettingpros dot com slash

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Speaker 1: pick hyphen tracking. Okay, let's get to the week rest

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Speaker 1: of this week's selections. Drake London over fifty eight point

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Speaker 1: five receiving yards.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: I know there was a time earlier this year when

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Speaker 1: betting the over on any Drake London yardage total above

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Speaker 1: fifty yards would have been tantamount to setting money on fire.

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Speaker 2: But things have changed.

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Speaker 1: The Falcons have made a concerted effort to get their

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Speaker 1: talented rookie receiver the ball more, even though they're not

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Speaker 1: throwing the ball at a high rate and continuing to

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Speaker 1: be very run heavy with rookie quarterback Desmond Ritter. Over

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Speaker 1: his last three games, London has produced ninety five, seventy

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Speaker 1: and ninety six receiving yards. He's averaged ten point seven

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Speaker 1: targets and six point seven catches over that stretch, and

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Speaker 1: he has had an outrageous thirty eight point six percent

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Speaker 1: target share over those last three Atlanta games. The Falcons

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Speaker 1: face a very leaky Cardinals defense that ranks thirtieth in

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Speaker 1: DVOA against the pass. I like London to go over

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Speaker 1: fifty eight and a half receiving yards. Let's go on

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Speaker 1: to Justin Jefferson over ninety five point five receiving yards.

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Speaker 1: I've been hitting the Justin Jefferson overs pretty hard this season.

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Speaker 2: And it's it's paid off.

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Speaker 1: It's been a lot like Cooper Cup last year, where

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Speaker 1: it doesn't matter how high the number gets. Just keep

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Speaker 1: hitting it and you're probably gonna profit handsomely from it

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Speaker 1: at the end of the season. So let us show

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Speaker 1: fealty to King Jefferson here. He is averaging one hundred

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Speaker 1: and seventeen point one receiving yards per game and he

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Speaker 1: has topped this number ninety five point five in eleven

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Speaker 1: of his fifteen games this year. So the Vikings visit

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Speaker 1: Green Bay this weekend and it is week one matchup

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Speaker 1: against the Packers. Jefferson had nine catches for one hundred

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Speaker 1: and eighty four yards and two touchdowns. Not only did

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Speaker 1: the Packers elect not to cover Jefferson with their best

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Speaker 1: cornerback in that game, jyr Alexander, but somehow the Packers

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Speaker 1: wound up covering with Jefferson or attempting to cover him

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Speaker 1: with linebackers and safeties for a lot of that game.

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Speaker 2: So you know schematic flaw for the Packers.

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Speaker 1: They are not inclined to shadow the other team's best

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Speaker 1: wide receiver with Jerry or Alexander so and we know

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Speaker 1: the target volume is going to be there for Jefferson.

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Speaker 1: He has seen double digit targets in five straight games,

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Speaker 1: and he has seen no fewer than fifteen targets in

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Speaker 1: any of his last three games, at least fifteen targets

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Speaker 1: in three straights. And last week against the Dolphins, the

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Speaker 1: Packer defense let two wide receivers go over one hundred

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Speaker 1: yards Jalen Waddle at one hundred and forty three if

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Speaker 1: he had that big long touchdown catch early in the game,

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Speaker 1: and Tyreek Hill also at one hundred and three yards.

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Speaker 1: So I like Justin Jefferson to clear ninety five point

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Speaker 1: five receiving yards and finally one last one, Terrace Marshall,

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Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers receiver under thirty five point five receiving yards.

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Speaker 1: Marshall has been making the most of meager target counts

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Speaker 1: in the last couple of weeks. He was targeted three

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Speaker 1: times against Detroit in Week sixteen and had two catches

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Speaker 1: for fifty five five yards. The previous week, Week fifteen,

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Speaker 1: against Pittsburgh, he caught all three of his targets for

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Speaker 1: fifty one yards. Marshall is drown just ten targets over

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Speaker 1: the last four games. Those are the four games since

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Speaker 1: Sam Darnold took over a quarterback for the Panthers, so

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Speaker 1: only ten targets for Marshall in those games. Yes, he's

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Speaker 1: been outrageously efficient with those targets, but I am willing

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Speaker 1: to bet against small sample efficiency every time. And the

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Speaker 1: Panthers have been super run heavy with Donald at the controls,

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Speaker 1: running the ball on sixty three point two percent of

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Speaker 1: their offensive snaps over Donald's four starts. That is like

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Speaker 1: a college team, maybe even run heavier than a lot

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Speaker 1: of college teams.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm.

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Speaker 1: Happy to bet against Marshall here. Also facing a good

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Speaker 1: Buccaneers defense that has allowed the tenth fewest receiving yards

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Speaker 1: to wide receivers. In an earlier Week seven meeting with

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Speaker 1: the Bucks, Marshall again just three targets, two catches for

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Speaker 1: thirty one yards. So I'm betting terras Marshall under thirty

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Speaker 1: five point five receiving yards. Let's recap all of this

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Speaker 1: week's plays, Gino Smith under one point five touchdown passes,

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Speaker 1: Dalvin Cook over seventy one point five rushing yards, Rashad

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Speaker 1: White over fifteen point five receiving yards, Drake London over

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Speaker 1: fifty eight point five receiving yards, Justin Jefferson over ninety

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Speaker 1: five point five receiving yards, and Tarras Marshall under thirty

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Speaker 1: eight excuse me, thirty five point five receiving yards. That's

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Speaker 1: going to do it for the week. Seventeen plays. Everyone,

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Speaker 1: we have reached the end of twenty twenty two. I

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Speaker 1: want to wish you all a very happy new year.

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Speaker 1: May twenty twenty three be prosperous for you, and may

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Speaker 1: you finish the year and a high note with some victories.

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Speaker 2: Good luck everyone, See you later. P