1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:07,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:21,120 Speaker 2: I'm Stephanie Flanders. I'm head of Government Economics at Bloomberg, 3 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:24,080 Speaker 2: and welcome to trump Andomics, the podcast that looks at 4 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:28,320 Speaker 2: the economic world of Donald Trump, how he's already shaped 5 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: the global economy, and what on earth is going to 6 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,880 Speaker 2: happen next. This week, we're recording Trumponomics in front of 7 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:38,879 Speaker 2: an audience from the Katar Economic Forum in Doha, and 8 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 2: we're asking the simple question, what does Trumpanomics mean for 9 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:48,239 Speaker 2: the Middle East. It's the fifth Katar Economic Forum, and 10 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:52,240 Speaker 2: the sessions theoretically have covered a very wide range of topics, 11 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 2: not just economics and finance, but the business of sport, 12 00:00:56,400 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 2: culture and the arts. But you couldn't help feeling, with 13 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 2: the event happening just a few days after President Donald 14 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:07,800 Speaker 2: Trump's tour of this region, nearly all of the sessions, 15 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 2: and certainly many of the conversations here have also been 16 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:15,640 Speaker 2: about Donald Trump what his policies mean for the region 17 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 2: and the world. We're recording this a few days into 18 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:24,480 Speaker 2: the forum on Wednesday, May twenty first, and I'm keen 19 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 2: to take stock of some of those discussions we've been 20 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:30,480 Speaker 2: having in the corridors and on the main stage, we 21 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 2: also think more broadly about not just Donald Trump's visit, 22 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 2: but longer term what the shift in the global landscape 23 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 2: he's engineering is going to mean for this part of 24 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:46,040 Speaker 2: the world. My guests have been part of the conversations 25 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 2: here at the forum, and they've also, I think, been 26 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 2: doing some reflecting on their own. John Micklethwaite, Bloomberg's editor 27 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 2: in chief, and from our Bloomberg Economics team, Siad Dold, 28 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 2: chief Emerging Mark's economist, and Dinas Fandry, who's joined us 29 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:08,440 Speaker 2: quite recently as the Middle East lead geoeconomics analyst. And 30 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 2: you were previously, Dina with the International Crisis Group. So 31 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 2: thanks very much all of you for joining me. See 32 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:17,239 Speaker 2: that I'm going to start with you. We will get 33 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 2: into the visit in a minute, but I just wanted 34 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 2: to take a snapshot from you of how the global 35 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 2: economy looks today. If you're sitting here in Kata or 36 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:30,800 Speaker 2: for that matter of Dubai, where you're based. 37 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:33,799 Speaker 3: I think you can summarize what's happened to the global 38 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 3: economy in two numbers four and two. The region gives 39 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 3: the world four things for inputs, and it gets from 40 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:44,640 Speaker 3: the world. Two things. The region exports to the world. 41 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:48,960 Speaker 3: Energy is a major energy producer. The region exports capital 42 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 3: to the world. The region is a major trade route 43 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 3: for the world. You talk about the Strait of Homers, 44 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 3: talk about the Strait of Babil Mandeb, we talk about 45 00:02:57,280 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 3: the Sewiz Canal. 46 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 4: And the region provides also labor to the world. 47 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 3: Currently provides about seven percent of the working age population 48 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 3: to the world. Because the region is young, because it's growing, 49 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 3: and because other parts of the world are aging, that 50 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 3: ratio is going to go up all the way to 51 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:14,799 Speaker 3: eleven percent by the end of the century. So that's 52 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 3: what it gives to the world. What it gets from 53 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 3: the world as input to the economies. Here two things. 54 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 3: One the most important thing is all prices higher. All 55 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 3: prices are good for the region, and all prices have 56 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:29,920 Speaker 3: gone down. And the second thing that the region gets 57 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:33,920 Speaker 3: from the world is interest rates determines monetary policy here. 58 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 3: It determines borrowing costs, and it determines capital flows. And 59 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 3: this year, interest rates at least if you look at 60 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 3: the Fed funds rate or under way down, maybe slower 61 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 3: rate than the previously thought, but that's good for the region. 62 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 3: That's different from twenty twenty two when the US was 63 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 3: raising interest rates rapidly and some countries in the region 64 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 3: were exposed by that term, by that rapid increase in 65 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 3: monetary policy in the US. 66 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 2: It's good to have that sort of the basic and 67 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 2: I like the idea of the inputs and outputs, Dina, 68 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 2: You're thinking more about the geopolitical inputs and outputs we've had. 69 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 2: Donald Trump's visit. We saw from a distance some of 70 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 2: the headlines, some of the enthusiasm around his trip, also 71 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:18,599 Speaker 2: some of the stories that he will have been less 72 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:20,719 Speaker 2: happy with. How important was it for the region. 73 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 5: I think this trip was absolutely key for the region. 74 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:29,960 Speaker 5: The Golfared States went through a period of difficulty politically 75 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 5: with Visa VI the US, and so Trump's trip last 76 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:37,280 Speaker 5: week was kind of a re emergence of the golf 77 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 5: aub States, as it were for the countries here. Everybody 78 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:43,560 Speaker 5: walked away from the trip a winner. Trump got what 79 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:46,039 Speaker 5: he wanted, which was some of the economic deals that 80 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:49,479 Speaker 5: he was gunning for, and the golfab States in return, 81 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 5: were able to showcase that they were open for business, 82 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 5: that they were here, that they were active, that their 83 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 5: economies were growing, that politically they were havens of stiff 84 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 5: ability in a region of instability, and all of that 85 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 5: was very important. And I think they also used this 86 00:05:05,480 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 5: as an opportunity to set perhaps some red lines or 87 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:13,279 Speaker 5: at least some asks on the political side, things like, 88 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 5: you know, asking for the sanction lifting of sanctions on Syria, 89 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:20,000 Speaker 5: setting some red lines in terms of what they would 90 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:23,960 Speaker 5: be willing to accept in a US run potential nuclear deal. 91 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 5: So really just using it as an opportunity to outline 92 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 5: to the Trump administration what was important for them politically 93 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:36,240 Speaker 5: and showcase this reinvigorated relationship with the US. 94 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:39,920 Speaker 2: And we did have some very big numbers coming out. 95 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:42,360 Speaker 2: Every day was a new country and a new very 96 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 2: large number of billions, occasionally the odd trillion thrown in. 97 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:49,160 Speaker 2: We know Donald Trump has a quite relaxed attitude to 98 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 2: these things. Do these governments take seriously those commitments? 99 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 5: They take them seriously, yes, But I think what they 100 00:05:57,560 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 5: take more seriously is the ability to capture those headlines 101 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:03,920 Speaker 5: with these huge figures, which is exactly what they did. 102 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 5: Some of these pledges aren't immediate, they're over the course 103 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:09,680 Speaker 5: of ten years. Who knows what will happen between now 104 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 5: and ten years time, and. 105 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 2: Who knows what you could include. I mean, Ziah, do 106 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:14,360 Speaker 2: you have been just a bit of a reality check 107 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:18,240 Speaker 2: on some of the past even Trump's first administration, some 108 00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 2: of the promises that were made then. 109 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, So there's a qualitative element to it, but there's 110 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 3: a quantitative side to it. So the reason why I'm 111 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,719 Speaker 3: skeptical whether these investments will be delivered this is multifold. 112 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 3: I think one is the fact that if you look 113 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 3: at the track record of what happened during Trump's first term, 114 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 3: he claimed that there was, for example, from Saudi Arabia, 115 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:40,080 Speaker 3: four hundred and fifty billion dollars or purchases and investments. 116 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 3: I didn't do the numbers, but the former IMF mission 117 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:45,840 Speaker 3: chief to Saudi did, and his conclusion was, if you 118 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 3: look at trade and if you look at investments, if 119 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 3: you add them all up, it's less than three hundred 120 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 3: billion dollars in the first time. Now, since then, the 121 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:56,279 Speaker 3: region has been spending more domestically, and if you're spending 122 00:06:56,320 --> 00:06:57,679 Speaker 3: more domestically, there is less. 123 00:06:57,480 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 4: To go abroad. 124 00:06:58,200 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 3: So but luckily that they will be able to deliver 125 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 3: even a larger number is smaller. And the third thing 126 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:07,559 Speaker 3: is the biggest economy in the region, Saudi Arabia has turned. 127 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 3: It's no longer an exporter of capital, is an importer 128 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 3: of capital. Saudi Arabia last year, when all was at 129 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 3: eighty dollars per barrel, was a net borrow from the world. Today, 130 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 3: when all was at sixty five, it's more likely to 131 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 3: be a borrow from the world. So if it wants 132 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:23,440 Speaker 3: to invest six hundred billion dollars to the US, as 133 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 3: the White House says, there were commitments of that size 134 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 3: or even one trillion dollars that Donald Trump is chasing, 135 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 3: Saudi Araby needs to borrow first. That makes it unlucky 136 00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 3: that they would actually deliver on these pig numbers. 137 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 2: All right, Well, that is a kind of a bombshell 138 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 2: that I guess we'll also maybe come back to in 139 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 2: terms of the Saudi Arabia's changing standing. But John Michael Fay, 140 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:46,280 Speaker 2: you know, like me, you're visiting the region for the forum. 141 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 2: We saw the coverage of the Trump visit. Probably you 142 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 2: had your own thoughts on how it had gone its importance, 143 00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 2: But you know what surprised you actually being here the 144 00:07:56,520 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 2: last few days and how the Donald Trump Show is 145 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:01,720 Speaker 2: playing in this region. 146 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 6: I think a couple of very obvious things. The first 147 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 6: is if you come here again, if you come back here, 148 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 6: or we come back every year for the conference, you 149 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:15,080 Speaker 6: see the way in which this region continues to add power, 150 00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:18,240 Speaker 6: both in the kind of long term way old enough 151 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 6: to remember when you thought about the Middle East and power, 152 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:22,240 Speaker 6: you thought about countries like Egypt. 153 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 4: Yes, in places like. 154 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 6: Saudi Arabia were important for oil, but geopolitically Egypt seemed 155 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:30,720 Speaker 6: more important. Now it's very much the Gulf. And you 156 00:08:30,760 --> 00:08:33,360 Speaker 6: can feel that both in terms of the people coming 157 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:37,240 Speaker 6: here for money, basically because I think that is a 158 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 6: big element. People are coming here, many of the people 159 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 6: in this room, perhaps in order to get capital. That 160 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 6: is incredibly important and that's having a real impact. And 161 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:49,200 Speaker 6: there is a slight difference I think between the UAE 162 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 6: and Cutter and Saudi Arabia because as you say, Saudi 163 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 6: Arabia no longer has as much to push out. So 164 00:08:56,400 --> 00:09:00,160 Speaker 6: there's an interesting dynamic in the people coming looking for money. 165 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 6: The second thing is just you know, the extraordinary personal 166 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 6: thing of Donald Trump, the fact that people queue up 167 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:10,160 Speaker 6: to say they met him or that they talked to 168 00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 6: him for one second, and where his car was parked 169 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:16,679 Speaker 6: and all this stuff, and it is much more in 170 00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:19,920 Speaker 6: a weird way, like going back to a previous era 171 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 6: of royalty visiting a place. It's much more along that 172 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 6: line and a variety of somewhat spectacular promises. I think 173 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:31,480 Speaker 6: probably people from countries that were colonized might remember this 174 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 6: in a different era about places like Britain, but where 175 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:36,720 Speaker 6: promises are made but you're very unsure what they mean. 176 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 6: It's just much more exciting that the king Emperor has arrived, 177 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:43,040 Speaker 6: and that's very much the sort of spirit of it 178 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 6: at the moment. But he has obviously had a very 179 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 6: big effect. As you said, everyone one that the interesting 180 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:51,439 Speaker 6: question somehere at the back of that is Israel Gaza, 181 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 6: where it's harder to see where the red line is there. 182 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:57,199 Speaker 2: I want to get into some of those the deal 183 00:09:57,240 --> 00:10:00,160 Speaker 2: making on the geopolitical side that he I guess has 184 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:02,920 Speaker 2: been somewhat less successful so far, at least in some areas, 185 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:06,200 Speaker 2: but just on the sort of broader point, John, it 186 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 2: was quite fashionable before the election the US election last 187 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:15,559 Speaker 2: year to say that this region would be relatively relaxed, 188 00:10:15,600 --> 00:10:18,520 Speaker 2: even non balance happier with a Trump victory because of 189 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:22,120 Speaker 2: his quote unquote transactional approach to foreign policy, which we've 190 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 2: obviously seen play out. But I get the sense, and 191 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 2: certainly talking privately to some of the policymakers here at 192 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 2: this event and elsewhere, there was a nervousness actually about 193 00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 2: the instability, and also people hankering a bit realizing the 194 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 2: value of a rule based system, even if they complained 195 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 2: about it. They didn't like American politicians American presidents lecturing 196 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 2: them about human rights and other things. The idea that 197 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:50,320 Speaker 2: everything is now thrown up into the air is making 198 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:51,720 Speaker 2: the leaders here nervous. 199 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:52,960 Speaker 4: I think that's very true. 200 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 6: I think if you've talked to people behind the scenes, yes, 201 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:58,440 Speaker 6: there is an enormous amount of what Trump did this, 202 00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:02,560 Speaker 6: Trump did that. There is also a worry, I think, 203 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 6: which is along the lines of the people in this 204 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 6: region have moved from a relationship based thing with America 205 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 6: to slightly more transaction based, and I think that is 206 00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 6: very scary because and I've just come back from Asia 207 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:21,280 Speaker 6: where you see exactly the same thing with places like 208 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 6: Japan and South Korea. If you look at Liberation Day, 209 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 6: what happened with tariffs, what happened with Zelenski in the 210 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:32,880 Speaker 6: White House. If you are one of the people who 211 00:11:32,920 --> 00:11:35,720 Speaker 6: rely on America to support you. And I think in 212 00:11:35,760 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 6: this place, this region, you can talk about that, not 213 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:42,160 Speaker 6: just in terms of countries, but in terms of families. 214 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:46,840 Speaker 6: If you rely on America to be your ally, you 215 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,680 Speaker 6: can't have an ally who's there eighty percent of the time. 216 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:51,959 Speaker 6: You're either one hundred percent or it doesn't really count. 217 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:55,360 Speaker 6: And I think what scared people about what happened in 218 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:58,439 Speaker 6: the first bit of the Trump presidency was the idea 219 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:02,320 Speaker 6: that that was all that negotiation, and I do think 220 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 6: there is that. So it's a mixture between this all 221 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:08,319 Speaker 6: welcome the King stuff on the one hand, but then 222 00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 6: this slight nervousness that he could change his mind dramatically 223 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:14,800 Speaker 6: about things, and that I think here particularly from the 224 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:17,839 Speaker 6: point of view the families who control a lot of 225 00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 6: the power in this region, they really do rely on that, 226 00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:23,600 Speaker 6: and so that's where the nervousness comes from. 227 00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:26,120 Speaker 2: So it's a reality check, because of course, is something 228 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:29,839 Speaker 2: we've also heard from countries more broadly, what you might 229 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 2: call from a global south. You know, there have been 230 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:36,440 Speaker 2: people privately saying, oh, it's it's a relief to have 231 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:39,200 Speaker 2: the US be just as transactional, you know, and not 232 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:41,800 Speaker 2: pretending to be anything that it isn't just a self 233 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:43,800 Speaker 2: interested country like the rest of US, and we can 234 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:46,839 Speaker 2: all sort of we can be we haven't rest from 235 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:49,079 Speaker 2: the lectures, but there is a sting in the tale. 236 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:51,960 Speaker 2: I mean, Tina, do you do you agree with Jonason? 237 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 5: Yeah, broadly, yes, absolutely think. I think from the perspective 238 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:58,960 Speaker 5: of the countries here, though this trend began even before 239 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 5: Trump Arguabie, right after the Arab Spring, it already appeared 240 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 5: as though the US wasn't as committed to the region, 241 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:10,079 Speaker 5: So they've had a long time to adjust to what 242 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:12,679 Speaker 5: they perceived to be a US pivoting. 243 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:16,800 Speaker 4: Away from the America never famously saved m. Barrack day exactly. 244 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:19,960 Speaker 5: That's exactly right, And so I think on the one hand, 245 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 5: they're used to it and they almost appreciate, like you said, 246 00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:27,520 Speaker 5: this transactional approach that the Trump administration now has. But 247 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:31,560 Speaker 5: on the other hand, they're afraid because he's unpredictable, he's unreliable. 248 00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:33,960 Speaker 5: On the one hand, he might listen to them and 249 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 5: they might have his ear immediately after a visit where 250 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 5: everything goes well and ten minutes later things will change. 251 00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 2: Just as we should also sort of take off some 252 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:45,840 Speaker 2: of the big things that happened, and I think you politically, 253 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 2: a very significant thing that happened during the visit was 254 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,600 Speaker 2: the normalization of relations with Syria, I mean, Dina. What's 255 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 2: the impact of that and the importance of that for 256 00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 2: the region. 257 00:13:56,840 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 5: It's absolutely huge. The new Syrian government would have had 258 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 5: no hope of any gross, any development, any stability had 259 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:10,040 Speaker 5: it not been for the sanctions relief. But the announcement 260 00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 5: of sanctions relief is not quite the same thing as 261 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 5: the implementation of sanctions relief, and sanctions on Syria are 262 00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 5: multi layered, incredibly complicated, and their removal requires many different 263 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:23,320 Speaker 5: people in the US to be on board with it, 264 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 5: many different institutions in the US to okay it, and 265 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 5: it will require real commitment on the part of a 266 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 5: Trump administration. So it remains to be seen just how 267 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 5: committed this administration will be to actually lifting all the 268 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 5: sanctions in the next few months. 269 00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 2: See what's the economic impact of normalizations Syria and who 270 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:45,720 Speaker 2: are the sort of winners economically in the region from it? 271 00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:50,360 Speaker 3: In terms of general economic impact is probably limited. Serious 272 00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:53,360 Speaker 3: economy is not very large, and it doesn't have much 273 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 3: spillover to the rest of the region, but there are winners. 274 00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 3: So if you think about, for example, Turkey, Turkey has 275 00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 3: political and cents in Syria. Under the new government, you'd 276 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 3: think that Turkish construction companies will be involved in the 277 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 3: reconstruction of Syria, which is probably gonn if the bill 278 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 3: could be in millions of dollars and it may benefit 279 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 3: from this. I think with respect to Syria, when it 280 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 3: comes to Syria and what happened in Syria, it just 281 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 3: tells you something also about what's happening in the broader region, 282 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 3: because I think when people look at the region today 283 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:24,680 Speaker 3: and they read the history of the region today or 284 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 3: write the history of the region today, they're not going 285 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 3: to say, look, there were a bunch of protests in 286 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:33,680 Speaker 3: the Arab world in two thousand and eleven, and there's 287 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:36,920 Speaker 3: another waive of protests in twenty nineteen in Abanon, in 288 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:40,480 Speaker 3: Iraq and Algeria and Sudan, and that every Arab republic 289 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 3: had popular protests since twenty and eleven, leading to toppling 290 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 3: of governments in some places, and then we had COVID 291 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 3: and then we had the war in twenty three and 292 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 3: twenty four, and up to today, they'll think there's a 293 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 3: whole period of instability. There's something in the region that 294 00:15:56,480 --> 00:16:01,200 Speaker 3: is politically probably is just simmering. You had the popular protest, 295 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 3: which signals dissatisfaction. Economically, if you look at many countries 296 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:08,880 Speaker 3: in the region, their gdpeople CAPTA today is lower than 297 00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:13,200 Speaker 3: twenty thirteen, so it's almost the last decade of economic growth. 298 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:15,160 Speaker 3: And you see that in Egypt, you see that in Iraq, 299 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:18,560 Speaker 3: you see that place of Jordan, Tunisia, Iran, and then 300 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:20,640 Speaker 3: you see what happened in Syria. But there's a sudden 301 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 3: change out of nowhere and then obviously the war, and 302 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 3: there is the whole level of anger in the region 303 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 3: that's not expressing yourself. So you have this political instability 304 00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 3: risks in the region which hasn't quite manifested it self. 305 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:35,960 Speaker 3: We saw an element of that in Syria, of with 306 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 3: what happened in Syria in December, but we haven't seen 307 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:40,080 Speaker 3: it in the rest of the region. 308 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 2: Dina, I mean, I feel like it's sort of crazy 309 00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:45,080 Speaker 2: to be going through these things so rapidly, but we 310 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:47,080 Speaker 2: don't have a huge amount of time. And something that 311 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:50,720 Speaker 2: the president has talked up a lot is a nuclear 312 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:55,080 Speaker 2: deal with Iran, but not much sign of progress and actually, 313 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 2: as we're recording this, there is also the sort of 314 00:16:57,440 --> 00:17:00,640 Speaker 2: leaks out of the US about potential shill create a 315 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:04,680 Speaker 2: tension and potential attacks between Israel and Iran. So how 316 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:05,440 Speaker 2: do you see that? 317 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:08,320 Speaker 1: So, I think it's already good news that they've had 318 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 1: several rounds of negotiations, some almost direct, kind of direct, 319 00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 1: and some involving Omani mediators and now increasing li Katari mediators. 320 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:22,600 Speaker 5: I think the momentum is there also good news. But 321 00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:25,240 Speaker 5: there does seem to be a lot of public positioning 322 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 5: on both sides in the media, and all of that 323 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 5: is pretty standard for this type of negotiation. I do 324 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 5: think this is a unique opportunity where both the Trump 325 00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:37,439 Speaker 5: administration and the administration in Iran want a deal, and 326 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 5: that hasn't always matched in the past. And we are 327 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:45,480 Speaker 5: faced with the US president who is capable of bulldozing 328 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 5: through and getting a deal, which perhaps in the past 329 00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:51,080 Speaker 5: we had, but the implementation of the deal was somewhat shaky, 330 00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:54,359 Speaker 5: and of course the same president left the previous nuclear 331 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:55,000 Speaker 5: deal as well. 332 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:56,120 Speaker 4: There's also a lot. 333 00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:57,840 Speaker 5: Of effort on the part of the Iranians and the 334 00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 5: Americans to brief regional players, players like Russia, and China 335 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:05,159 Speaker 5: to get them on board, to make sure everybody is 336 00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:07,520 Speaker 5: on the same page. And again that really does count 337 00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:11,680 Speaker 5: for something, so everybody feels involved in these talks. The 338 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:16,159 Speaker 5: real question, though, is what is the US ask and 339 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:18,560 Speaker 5: what does the US ask on enrichment? And this is 340 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 5: where we've seen a little bit of flip flopping on 341 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:24,880 Speaker 5: the American side between asking for complete dismantlement of the Iran's 342 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 5: program or accepting a certain amount of enrichment. But obviously 343 00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:33,439 Speaker 5: in a limited capacity, complete dismantlement is just off the 344 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 5: table for Iran. They won't agree to it. If the 345 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:40,760 Speaker 5: Americans are able to accept some kind of enrichment, then 346 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 5: I do think the likelihood of a deal is actually 347 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 5: quite high because both sides want it, and both sides 348 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 5: need the win. 349 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:48,760 Speaker 2: Just to follow up on that. I mean, one of 350 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 2: the things, one of the reasons it matters, if you're 351 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 2: just thinking in kind of optical terms for the administration, 352 00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 2: is it's the difference between having a deal that's quite 353 00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:00,680 Speaker 2: different from the Obama deal and have a deal that's 354 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:05,320 Speaker 2: actually very similar. Do you think that's going to be fundamental? 355 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 5: I do think that President Trump just wants the win 356 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 5: and coming back with a deal is a win no 357 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:16,359 Speaker 5: matter what's in it. So I don't think despite the 358 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 5: fact that they did make a big deal out of 359 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 5: the previous deal and not wanting this one to be 360 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 5: the same. I don't think that this administration is dead 361 00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:26,560 Speaker 5: set on making sure this is very different. They are 362 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,679 Speaker 5: just dead set on achieving this agreement with Iran. There 363 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:32,639 Speaker 5: are two things, though, in the deal that sound like 364 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:34,880 Speaker 5: they are going to be somewhat different to the previous one. 365 00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:37,480 Speaker 5: The first is this idea that there may not be 366 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:41,080 Speaker 5: any sunset closes, so an end date to the agreement. 367 00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 5: It appears that there's been discussion about this, and it 368 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:45,840 Speaker 5: appears that there's been at least some agreement on it, 369 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:49,000 Speaker 5: and that's very different to the Obama administration's nuclear deal. 370 00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 5: The second thing is there appears to be an Iranian 371 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 5: willingness to talk about its regional presence. I myself was 372 00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 5: taken aback when I heard the Supreme Leader say this, 373 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,399 Speaker 5: because it seems like Iran was only going to focus 374 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 5: on a nuclear deal. But if there is willingness on 375 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:07,680 Speaker 5: the Iranian part to talk about its regional presence, then 376 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:09,880 Speaker 5: that fundamentally changes this agreement. 377 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:13,400 Speaker 6: Did you think that makes a difference to instability because 378 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 6: I thought, well, theod was talking. If you were looking 379 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:19,280 Speaker 6: at the outputs for this region in a slightly more 380 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 6: geopolitical way, you would say, one of the great outputs 381 00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:25,520 Speaker 6: over the past however long you want to take, has 382 00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 6: been instability, which has ricocheted around the world in various 383 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:35,680 Speaker 6: ways of extremism and protests and also just difficulties and 384 00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:39,920 Speaker 6: the moment that you could argue massively generalizing, but there 385 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:42,040 Speaker 6: are kind of two things slightly at the middle of it. 386 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,320 Speaker 6: There's Israel and Gaza, and there's Iran. Is there a 387 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:49,800 Speaker 6: chance because of all these machinations, however you put them, 388 00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:53,600 Speaker 6: that actually you end up with a more stable regime 389 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:56,600 Speaker 6: and that element of the Middle East is changed. 390 00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:02,600 Speaker 5: The issue is that Iran's relationship with its proxies in 391 00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:05,359 Speaker 5: the region and the network of partnerships that it's built 392 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,240 Speaker 5: in the region really is its crown rules. It's its 393 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:13,080 Speaker 5: single most successful foreign policy endeavor as the Islamic Republic. 394 00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:16,240 Speaker 5: So it's very important to it. Now it has suffered 395 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,840 Speaker 5: a blow. For sure, it is weakened, although I would 396 00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 5: argue it's not weak because it's a temporary thing, not 397 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:26,159 Speaker 5: a permanent thing. But this is significant to Iran, and 398 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,679 Speaker 5: it would have to gain a lot of security in 399 00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:31,320 Speaker 5: order to give that up. Would such a deal give 400 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 5: it that security. I think a deal with Trump's America 401 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:39,280 Speaker 5: would give it legitimacy for sure. And what happens after 402 00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:41,679 Speaker 5: the deal, I think is what's critical to determining how 403 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 5: much Iran is willing to give up some of these partnerships. 404 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:47,359 Speaker 5: If Iran really does see the benefits of the deal, 405 00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 5: if for example, you could foresee a potential Islamic republic 406 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,640 Speaker 5: that is more integrated economically in the region, an ideal 407 00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 5: that a lot of the golf Arab states are trying 408 00:21:57,320 --> 00:22:00,520 Speaker 5: to sell to Iran. If it can be reintegrated, if 409 00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:04,119 Speaker 5: it's no longer isolated, then it means the regime has 410 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:09,399 Speaker 5: an interest in staying integrated and perhaps giving up some 411 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:11,919 Speaker 5: of those relationships. I don't think it'll be easy, and 412 00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:14,560 Speaker 5: it certainly won't be the first thing that happens, but 413 00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:18,000 Speaker 5: I do think it's it's a potential scenario. 414 00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 2: John, you mentioned at the start something that we should 415 00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:23,120 Speaker 2: you know, people listening. Although it's called Trumpnomics, obviously we're 416 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:24,920 Speaker 2: listening to this show at the same in the same 417 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:29,240 Speaker 2: week that international pressure is mounting on Israel, and the 418 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:32,000 Speaker 2: UK government has taken some steps, and there's been an 419 00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 2: alliance of other countries who've also attempted to put more 420 00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:40,119 Speaker 2: pressure on Israel regarding the situation in Gaza. That's the 421 00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:45,240 Speaker 2: other wrinkle, surely in your story about having greater prospects 422 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:46,160 Speaker 2: for stability here. 423 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:49,880 Speaker 4: Yes, that was That's what I was asking about as well. 424 00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 6: Most people would say those two things, Israeli Palestinian dispute 425 00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:58,280 Speaker 6: and the Iranian that those have been at the bottom 426 00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 6: of most of the elements about what has made this 427 00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 6: a difficult region. 428 00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 4: For outside powers to deal with. 429 00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:08,560 Speaker 6: You might argue interfere with and cause things, but those 430 00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:11,600 Speaker 6: those are the two things, and without a solution on those, 431 00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 6: and I think neither Iran. Weirdly seems a little bit 432 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 6: closer to some kind of deal than what seems possible 433 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:19,760 Speaker 6: in Israel Palace. 434 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:22,160 Speaker 2: But with all this talk of deals again, it does 435 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:25,400 Speaker 2: seem like the sort of parallel tracks we've had a 436 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,840 Speaker 2: you know, several weeks of talking about big numbers and 437 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:31,120 Speaker 2: emerging great relationships between the US and the Middle East 438 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 2: and in the Gulf nations at the same time as 439 00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:37,960 Speaker 2: this continued drama is playing out and even deepening in 440 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,880 Speaker 2: some ways around the situation in Gaza. And the mistake, 441 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,800 Speaker 2: some would say, of the first Trump administration was this 442 00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,679 Speaker 2: idea that you could have the Abraham Accords, that you 443 00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 2: could be moving towards a more peaceful place, just hoping 444 00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:54,600 Speaker 2: that that dispute would go away. And on October seventh, 445 00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:56,600 Speaker 2: everyone said, but we mustn't make that mistake again. The 446 00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,840 Speaker 2: problem is now still front and center. But Dina Zi, 447 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,680 Speaker 2: but it doesn't. It feels like we're still talking around 448 00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 2: it in forums like this and in more geopolitical settings. 449 00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:10,439 Speaker 5: Absolutely, the problem is the Israel Palestinian problem is such 450 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,240 Speaker 5: an endemic issue to the Middle East. It's so complicated, 451 00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:17,840 Speaker 5: it's long standing, and it's just years and years and 452 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:22,359 Speaker 5: years of animosity and now several years of devastating conflict. 453 00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:25,400 Speaker 5: It's difficult to pick that apart. But you're absolutely right 454 00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 5: to say that there will be no stability in the 455 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:31,320 Speaker 5: region long term if you don't resolve this conflict. This 456 00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 5: will always form the context in the backdrop to any 457 00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:38,119 Speaker 5: attempt at stability. And the problem is in the last 458 00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:41,320 Speaker 5: few years that this conflict has raged on, it has 459 00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 5: engulfed the entire region. So we're no longer talking about 460 00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:48,800 Speaker 5: a limited conflict that covers just Israel and the Palestinian territories. 461 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:52,840 Speaker 5: We're now talking about something that has drawn in Lebanon, 462 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:56,639 Speaker 5: it's drawn in Iran, it's drawn in the Gulf Arab states, 463 00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,359 Speaker 5: because they're trying to mediate it. So there is no 464 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,840 Speaker 5: prospect stability without resolving the Gaza conflict, and right now 465 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:04,439 Speaker 5: there doesn't seem to be a lot of hope for 466 00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:05,600 Speaker 5: resolving the conflict. 467 00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,439 Speaker 2: At the broadest level that the conflict it's not just 468 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:12,000 Speaker 2: many years, it's now entering its second century, which is 469 00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:15,520 Speaker 2: worth reflecting on. Because we're Trumpenomics, we're going to do 470 00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:20,000 Speaker 2: a quick turn back into economics before we end, which 471 00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:24,000 Speaker 2: means I'm looking at Uziad and can't help being struck. 472 00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,240 Speaker 2: You mentioned it at the start. You know, there's one 473 00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:31,720 Speaker 2: big change, which is that Saudi Arabia is now a 474 00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,080 Speaker 2: capital importer, is now borrowing from the rest of the 475 00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:37,240 Speaker 2: world to fund all its domestic investments. It's not necessarily 476 00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:39,479 Speaker 2: and they be able to have this big checkbook, even 477 00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:41,800 Speaker 2: though there was lots of talk of money last week. 478 00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:45,000 Speaker 2: I would say for the outside observer, for many people 479 00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:48,760 Speaker 2: in the world, Saudi Arabia's actually feels bigger. You know, 480 00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,720 Speaker 2: it has the greater sort of geopolitical standing now and 481 00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:55,040 Speaker 2: John mentioned it in passing as well. But you would 482 00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:58,280 Speaker 2: say as an economist, that's happening, that great place on 483 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 2: the world stage is happening as it's economics is actually 484 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,359 Speaker 2: becoming weaker and weaker. Is that is that fair? 485 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:07,000 Speaker 3: Weaker and weaker in the census, providing less capital to 486 00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,560 Speaker 3: the world. But just just take a step back. This region, 487 00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:13,480 Speaker 3: the Gulf countries are incredibly rich. Just perspective. If you 488 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:16,080 Speaker 3: look at Kata where we are today, Kata has about 489 00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:19,520 Speaker 3: two eight hundred billion dollars of assets are broad of 490 00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:23,119 Speaker 3: external asses. If it decides to liquidate then tomorrow and 491 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,960 Speaker 3: distribute to the citizens equally, there's fewer than four hundred 492 00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:29,080 Speaker 3: thousand quatter is here. Each cuttery citizen could wake up 493 00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,119 Speaker 3: next morning with two million dollars a millionaire. You do 494 00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:34,679 Speaker 3: the same calculations for the EAE again, the same num 495 00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:36,880 Speaker 3: almost the same number, two million dollars again for every 496 00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 3: citizen Saudi, because it's significant how the common wealth, but 497 00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:43,040 Speaker 3: the population is much larger to twenty million in Saudi's. 498 00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:46,359 Speaker 3: So we're talking about sixty thousand dollars per citizens, a 499 00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,680 Speaker 3: significant amount of money, but the region is not into 500 00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:53,240 Speaker 3: that business of liquidating and distributing. They use that wealth 501 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:57,159 Speaker 3: to try and generate economic reterm, They use that wealth 502 00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:00,400 Speaker 3: for economic diplomacy, and they use that wealth to generates 503 00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 3: soft power. But in the context of a very rich region, 504 00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,280 Speaker 3: something is changing, and that something is changing the amanda's 505 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:10,160 Speaker 3: topping up every year to that wealth continues to be 506 00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:13,760 Speaker 3: positive in Kuwait in the UAE and on Cottact, but 507 00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,800 Speaker 3: it's negative now in Saldi. That changed last year. As 508 00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:18,960 Speaker 3: I said, when aill is are eighty, which is surprising, 509 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,840 Speaker 3: that is set to continue when all is lower and 510 00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:24,359 Speaker 3: if you look at the arm of projection, as they 511 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,360 Speaker 3: expect that to continue all the way out to twenty thirty. 512 00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,520 Speaker 3: And it just means Saldi has a choice. It has 513 00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:32,440 Speaker 3: a choice to spend less at home and try and 514 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:35,920 Speaker 3: stay more abroad. That's one one choice. The other one 515 00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:38,760 Speaker 3: is to borrow more from broad to fund all the spending. 516 00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:42,280 Speaker 3: And the third thing is to draw on this wealth 517 00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,680 Speaker 3: that it has accumulated, and that could give a citizen 518 00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:48,160 Speaker 3: sixty thousand dollars. And I think this is a choice 519 00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,880 Speaker 3: that Saldi policy makers need to face in the coming 520 00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,399 Speaker 3: years and probably need to make a decision on that. 521 00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,040 Speaker 2: And if you think about the world we have, you know, 522 00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,639 Speaker 2: a world in which the dollars lower but the oil 523 00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:03,639 Speaker 2: price is lower. But also people are potentially looking to 524 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:08,320 Speaker 2: move money out of the US or orient or sort 525 00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:13,159 Speaker 2: of hedge their bets against either the US or China, 526 00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:14,960 Speaker 2: you know, wanting to be in the sort of you know, 527 00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:19,040 Speaker 2: play both sides. This region benefits from that. Are there 528 00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:21,040 Speaker 2: particular countries that benefit from that? 529 00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,520 Speaker 3: It could potentially benefit from this. Despite working as an 530 00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:27,960 Speaker 3: economists have to make projections about the future. I look 531 00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:31,640 Speaker 3: at the past and extrapolate. So far, foreign direct investment 532 00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:33,440 Speaker 3: in the region has not been significant. 533 00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:35,480 Speaker 4: Will things change. Possibly. 534 00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,600 Speaker 3: I'm not smart enough to make that forecast two years out, 535 00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,360 Speaker 3: but right now and if you look at Saudi for example, 536 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:45,000 Speaker 3: foreign direct investment into Saudi has been falling since twenty 537 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:48,120 Speaker 3: twenty one, so yes, this things could change. I was 538 00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:50,920 Speaker 3: away on sabbatical last year because you approved there and 539 00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:53,640 Speaker 3: John approved it. And the point I'm trying to make 540 00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:56,640 Speaker 3: is twenty percent of my office hours were people coming 541 00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 3: to me asking how they could get jobs in the 542 00:28:58,960 --> 00:28:59,760 Speaker 3: Gulf from. 543 00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:02,920 Speaker 2: People and I should say your Harvard students were saying that. 544 00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:05,080 Speaker 6: But the interesting thing about that, if you want a 545 00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,320 Speaker 6: kind of dinner party version of having been to a 546 00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:11,200 Speaker 6: variety of meals, here the number of people who were 547 00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:14,680 Speaker 6: thinking of sending their children to US universities who are 548 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:19,080 Speaker 6: now reconsidering. You could argue that that is one of 549 00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:23,040 Speaker 6: the biggest sort of changes in terms of what Liberation 550 00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,080 Speaker 6: Day may have done to people's views of America. 551 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:28,360 Speaker 4: With a slightly ancillary. 552 00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,680 Speaker 6: Thing about people being slightly more reluctant to go to 553 00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,960 Speaker 6: London for tax reasons, that kind of thing actually does 554 00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:35,200 Speaker 6: have a long term impact. 555 00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:39,680 Speaker 2: I mean, Dina, I think certainly listened to some of 556 00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:42,160 Speaker 2: the things that we've been saying, and particularly what John 557 00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:46,160 Speaker 2: was saying about America's different stance with respect to the 558 00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:48,280 Speaker 2: rest of the world and how people are reacting to it. 559 00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,560 Speaker 2: Probably the world as a whole as a loser from 560 00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:54,880 Speaker 2: having America sort of step back from its previous role 561 00:29:55,160 --> 00:30:00,360 Speaker 2: and be much more transactional, but understanding that there still 562 00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,480 Speaker 2: be relative winners and losers from this new global order 563 00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,800 Speaker 2: or disorder. Do you feel that in your gut that 564 00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:09,880 Speaker 2: sort of Middle East will be or the Gulf region 565 00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:12,320 Speaker 2: at least will be a relative winner. 566 00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:14,400 Speaker 5: I was just about to say, it depends what part 567 00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,120 Speaker 5: of the Middle East you're talking about. I do think 568 00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:20,160 Speaker 5: that the Gulf is well positioned to be a winner, 569 00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:24,720 Speaker 5: certainly with this administration. They are and they represent and 570 00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:28,120 Speaker 5: they present themselves to be everything that the Trump administration likes. 571 00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:31,600 Speaker 5: The glitz, the glamor the money. All of these things 572 00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,520 Speaker 5: are very attractive to this administration and it works, and 573 00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 5: so I do think that they're in a position to win. 574 00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:40,000 Speaker 5: But they can only win, as we said earlier, if 575 00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:42,680 Speaker 5: there is greater stability in the whole Middle East region, 576 00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:45,880 Speaker 5: and it really can only go one of two ways. 577 00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:49,000 Speaker 5: The Trump administration can either bulldoze through some of the 578 00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:52,560 Speaker 5: things that we've seen in the last few years, get 579 00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:55,840 Speaker 5: to agreements, fast agreements, but agreements that are implemented if 580 00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:59,240 Speaker 5: they are committed to achieving some of their foreign policy objectives, 581 00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:02,400 Speaker 5: in which case we may actually see greater stability in 582 00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:06,080 Speaker 5: the Middle East. Or it will make these great statements 583 00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:09,239 Speaker 5: and not implement them afterwards. And if that happens, then 584 00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:11,520 Speaker 5: the region will just be as unstable as it is now. 585 00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:15,520 Speaker 2: It's a very superficial response, but from what you were 586 00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,800 Speaker 2: saying did make me think a little bit the surface 587 00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:22,080 Speaker 2: glitz these amazing hotels, But every conversation I've had with 588 00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:24,480 Speaker 2: people this week has been about different elements of their 589 00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:27,960 Speaker 2: very swanky hotel room that didn't quite work. And I 590 00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:31,440 Speaker 2: can't help thinking, you need the glitz, but you also 591 00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:33,360 Speaker 2: need the showers that work, and I guess in your 592 00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:37,840 Speaker 2: context you need the underlying social and human infrastructure to 593 00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:38,760 Speaker 2: be in place as well. 594 00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:38,840 Speaker 3: Well. 595 00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,840 Speaker 2: I think that's an excellent place on which to end. 596 00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:50,240 Speaker 2: But John Dino Ziah, thank you very much, So we're 597 00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:52,160 Speaker 2: going to get to John, did you want to get 598 00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:55,880 Speaker 2: a last word? You were looking at me meaningfully. Check 599 00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:57,920 Speaker 2: if the boss wants to get the last words, I 600 00:31:57,920 --> 00:31:58,360 Speaker 2: think now. 601 00:31:58,400 --> 00:31:59,640 Speaker 4: When we ended on the showers. 602 00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:00,800 Speaker 6: More to add. 603 00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:21,280 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Trumponomics from Bloomberg. It was hosted 604 00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:23,280 Speaker 2: by me Stephanie Flanders, and I was joined by John, 605 00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:27,800 Speaker 2: Michelfwaite Z DoD and Dina Esfandre. With special thanks to 606 00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:40,840 Speaker 2: the team at the Katan Economic Forum.