1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Good Monday Morning from 7 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,040 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Inactive Broker Studio in New York City and 8 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 1: points beyond to our worldwide audience. Paul Sweeney with you. 9 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 1: Matt Miller's out today, but we're joined by Lisa A. 10 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:34,520 Speaker 1: Bromwi's Lisa, thanks so much for joining us. It's always 11 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 1: great to be back with you, and it's for a 12 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 1: really interesting day. Today is International Women's Day, and I 13 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 1: gotta say, Paul, it couldn't come on a more powerful moment. 14 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 1: One that has been the She Session where women have 15 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:49,559 Speaker 1: disproportionately found themselves out of work as a result of 16 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:52,280 Speaker 1: the pandemic. And this comes as a whole host of 17 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 1: reasons fuel it. And yet here we are at a 18 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 1: pivotal moment for women entering the labor force and Karen 19 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 1: Mills joining us now has vast experience both from the 20 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:04,759 Speaker 1: female perspective of being an entrepreneur, but also of what 21 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:06,960 Speaker 1: it is to be in the in the labor market, 22 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:09,480 Speaker 1: particularly with small business. She's a senior fellow at Harvard 23 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 1: Business School, the former Small Business Administrator for President Obama 24 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 1: from two thousand nine to two tho thirteen. Joining us 25 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 1: from Karen from Boston, not Karen. I apologize, Karen, thank 26 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:21,959 Speaker 1: you so much for being with us. I just want 27 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:26,039 Speaker 1: to start with just the vast pain experience in the 28 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 1: pandemic by women. How deep is the she session. First 29 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:34,400 Speaker 1: of all, I'm so pleased to be with you today 30 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:38,400 Speaker 1: because it's International Women's Day and you know we're marking 31 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:43,039 Speaker 1: this moment, and you ask exactly the right question. Women 32 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 1: were a lot harder hit by, uh, this pandemic in 33 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 1: terms of, you know, the economic impact, and that is 34 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:54,200 Speaker 1: true in two ways that I worry about a lot. 35 00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 1: One is a lot of women dropped out of the 36 00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 1: workforce because of the increased pressures. And the number are tough. 37 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 1: Two point three million women dropped out one point eight men. 38 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 1: So you can just see there, you know they're going 39 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 1: to be more impacted. And we can talk about small 40 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:16,360 Speaker 1: businesses they've been much harder hit in the smallest and 41 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 1: the women and minority owned businesses. So that's a problem too, 42 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:24,080 Speaker 1: all right, So, Karen, as we begin to approach, I 43 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 1: guess what a lot of people feel like is a 44 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:30,639 Speaker 1: reopening of the US economy. Here, what can women do 45 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:34,440 Speaker 1: to try to get back into the market, get back 46 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:38,560 Speaker 1: into the labor force, get perhaps their businesses back, reopen 47 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 1: to that type of thing. Well, thank goodness, we passed 48 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:47,240 Speaker 1: another round of the Small Business Aid the p p 49 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:50,919 Speaker 1: P around Christmas time, and there's more in this package 50 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:55,679 Speaker 1: that's going through Congress because small businesses are really devastated. 51 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 1: And I just looked at these numbers before I came on, 52 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 1: because women owned businesses, fifty eight percent of them say 53 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 1: they're running out of cash. They're either out of cash 54 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: or they're about to run out of cash at fifty 55 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:14,920 Speaker 1: eight compared to of the men owned businesses. And why 56 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:17,960 Speaker 1: is that? Because a lot of these customer facing businesses 57 00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 1: that had to shut and these very small non employer 58 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 1: businesses sold proprietorships. This is where the women have gained 59 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 1: some economic grounds. You know, when I ran the s 60 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:32,519 Speaker 1: b A, women particularly actually Hispanic women were the fastest 61 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 1: growing part of our small business world, and now we've 62 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 1: given them a real setback. So they've got to take 63 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 1: advantage of every single thing that is out there for 64 00:03:43,200 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 1: them because there's a lot of grant money coming out 65 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 1: through these p p P programs, there's low interest loans, 66 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 1: and they've got to stay with us because if they 67 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 1: shut their doors, it's going to take the economy a 68 00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 1: really long time to recover, and it's going to recover disproportionately, 69 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:01,760 Speaker 1: which we know is a problem. Or you know that 70 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 1: hurts everybody. Well, Karen, do you talk a little bit 71 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 1: about why women have suffered so disproportionately. Some people say 72 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 1: because they have more jobs in certain areas like education 73 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 1: that have been hit hard, but there's also the childcarrish. 74 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 1: You can you talk a little about that. Yeah, you know, 75 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:23,599 Speaker 1: all across um being a woman, you know, trying to 76 00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 1: prosper economically, there are frictions and barriers that you know, 77 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,479 Speaker 1: I hope in my lifetime will get better and go away. 78 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:35,159 Speaker 1: And it's it's true we've made progress, but I actually 79 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 1: think we're at the tipping point all of these kinds 80 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 1: of frictions and barriers where more burdens fall on the 81 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:45,359 Speaker 1: women and also employers don't do enough. We we know 82 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 1: right now we need all the women in our workforce, 83 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:51,479 Speaker 1: and we know we want to create a culture that 84 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 1: works for them, and we want to create uh, you know, 85 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:59,280 Speaker 1: help for them because they have children. Having children is 86 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:02,280 Speaker 1: the absolute the best thing thing. I have three boys, 87 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:05,679 Speaker 1: best thing ever. But you know, it's a lot of work, 88 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:09,360 Speaker 1: and especially when they're young. So we need to make 89 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 1: sure that employers step up and not do this as 90 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 1: a nice to have. This is a must have if 91 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:19,599 Speaker 1: you are going to be competitive all right along that front, Karen, 92 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 1: You know, we see more and more talk, We hear 93 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 1: more and more talk about diversity from some of the 94 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:29,839 Speaker 1: larger corporations. Is that real? Is you see real change 95 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:32,720 Speaker 1: occurring or is it more in the department lip service? 96 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 1: You know, we're not quite at that inflection point in 97 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:41,919 Speaker 1: terms of the corporate diversity programs. I just wrote a 98 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:44,000 Speaker 1: case for Harvard Business School and one of the big 99 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 1: tech companies, one of them you know whose name you 100 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 1: say every day and it you know it is really 101 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 1: focused on doing a real diversity, equity and inclusion program. 102 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 1: And they're philosophy is that's where they're going to get 103 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:05,839 Speaker 1: competitive advantage. It was very interesting to go deep in 104 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:09,599 Speaker 1: this because it was a persuasive argument that if you 105 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:12,479 Speaker 1: want to make your customers happy, you have to have 106 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 1: a happy and inclusive workplace. If you want to have 107 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:21,599 Speaker 1: diverse customers, you want to have a diverse and inclusive 108 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:24,400 Speaker 1: workplace and people who are not spending any of their 109 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 1: mind share worrying about am I being left out of 110 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 1: this meeting for some reason? So I am persuaded that, uh, 111 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:35,360 Speaker 1: the ones who get it, which is not everybody, will 112 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:39,080 Speaker 1: have competitive advantage. Interesting, We will follow up on that. 113 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 1: Karen Mills, thank you so much for joining us. We 114 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:45,559 Speaker 1: appreciate that. Karen Mills, Senior fellow Harvard Business School, former 115 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 1: small business administrator for President Obama as well getting her 116 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 1: thoughts on women in the workplace and the sheet session 117 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 1: in which women have been hit harder and Karen shared 118 00:06:57,440 --> 00:07:00,240 Speaker 1: some statistics there. Women have been hit harder in terms 119 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:03,800 Speaker 1: of unappoyment and other economic metrics during this pandemic and 120 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:09,040 Speaker 1: during the recession, insulting well. In the equity markets, it's 121 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 1: really been about the rotation trade really since about September 122 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: of last year. Some of those more cyclical sectors such 123 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 1: as energies such as banking have been out performing some 124 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 1: of the typical drivers of this market, some of the 125 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 1: large kept technology names. The question is how much more 126 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 1: does that trade have left and where should we be 127 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 1: looking in the markets these days? Lisa Schaalett, she's a 128 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 1: chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. She joins us, 129 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 1: we always appreciate Lisa's opinion. So, Lisa, again, the rotation 130 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 1: trade has been a really interesting trade for a lot 131 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 1: of investors. Um, how much more do you think has 132 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 1: left to go here in that type of portfolio? Look, 133 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:52,160 Speaker 1: our perspective is that, you know, a lot of these sectors, 134 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 1: whether we're talking about financials, energy, industrials, infrastructure, you know, 135 00:07:57,080 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 1: parts of consumer services and consumer durables have really been 136 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 1: left behind, not only uh during the recession, but we're 137 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 1: left behind for the entire last business cycle. Uh. You 138 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 1: know that we saw from from you know, the post pandemic. Uh. 139 00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 1: And so we think that there's you know, quite a 140 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 1: lot more to go. And uh, you know, this is 141 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 1: not simply about economic growth and and that's especially true 142 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:28,680 Speaker 1: of uh, some of the services, more cyclical services businesses. 143 00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 1: And you know, one of the things that we've talked 144 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:33,360 Speaker 1: a lot about is that in this new business cycle 145 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 1: that we're entering, the opportunities for some of these UH 146 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:43,720 Speaker 1: cyclicals to really embrace and optimize on digitization, optimize on 147 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 1: some of the lessons learned from the pandemic on contactless 148 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:50,800 Speaker 1: business models. Means that they're not just going to benefit 149 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 1: from a pickup in economic growth, but they're gonna pick up, 150 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:57,679 Speaker 1: uh benefit from a pickup in margins and return on assets. 151 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 1: I really think some of these companies are gonna, uh, 152 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:05,960 Speaker 1: you know, see some some very big improvements uh in 153 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 1: in moving towards asset light business models. Well, here's the tension, though, Lisa, 154 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 1: is that people see very fast growth, at least in 155 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:16,680 Speaker 1: the near term, and yet we've got a FED that's 156 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 1: talking about inflation remaining low. Janet Yellen was speaking at 157 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:23,520 Speaker 1: MSNBC moments ago and Treasure Secretary, and she said that 158 00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:26,679 Speaker 1: she doesn't think that the stimulus bill will be uh 159 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 1: something that will cause inflation problems. Do you buy this? 160 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 1: I mean, isn't there sort of an uncomfortable reality here 161 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 1: of fast growth yet no inflation, which is sort of unsustainable. Look, 162 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:43,320 Speaker 1: it's it's it's always a daunting thing to disagree with 163 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 1: with people like you know, the head of the bed 164 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:48,719 Speaker 1: and your own fowel, and and certainly do you know 165 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:52,000 Speaker 1: Janet yelling at at Treasury and so you know what 166 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:55,560 Speaker 1: my comments are are obviously made with a huge degree 167 00:09:55,559 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 1: of humility, uh and respect for for them. Uh. But look, 168 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 1: I do think that while certainly, uh, there's lots of 169 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 1: evidence that that some of the inflationary pressures, especially those 170 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 1: related to the supply chain, um, are are probably going 171 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:15,560 Speaker 1: to be transitory. And we know that very often, you know, 172 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 1: big moves we've seen commodity prices are transitory. Uh. The 173 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:22,240 Speaker 1: reality is that we think that there are some other 174 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 1: things going on here. Uh. The degree to which fiscal 175 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:31,239 Speaker 1: stimulus uh, you know, in this recession has gone directly 176 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:36,720 Speaker 1: uh too small businesses and directly to households is relevant. Um. 177 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 1: It's coming at a time when there is behavioral pent 178 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 1: up demand for consumer services, for travel, for leisure, for entertainment, 179 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:52,319 Speaker 1: and there is household balance sheet capacity to spent. And 180 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 1: so what's different for us this time is that we 181 00:10:57,080 --> 00:11:01,839 Speaker 1: actually are believers that monetary velocity is going to be 182 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 1: uh picking up, is going to be one of the 183 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:09,320 Speaker 1: drivers of inflation. Uh. And we don't think that this 184 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 1: is going to be a cycle like like uh the 185 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:17,959 Speaker 1: last one where deleveraging among the banks and deleveraging among 186 00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:22,440 Speaker 1: households prevented money velocity from picking up. And that's why 187 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:25,840 Speaker 1: you were able to see the Fed print money but 188 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 1: not have inflation. So that's that's the thing that's different 189 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 1: to us this time is is fiscal and it's the 190 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 1: directness of the fiscal right, It's it's not CAx cuts, Lisa. 191 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:39,079 Speaker 1: I'm gonna let you go. But before I do, how 192 00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 1: high can yields go before it stops the equity rally? 193 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 1: Just twenty seconds? Uh? Yeah, So unfortunately I probably don't 194 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:48,959 Speaker 1: have a twenty second answer on that. Uh. As running 195 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:50,520 Speaker 1: at a time, I wish we had more time with 196 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 1: your I know, but but look, uh, you know our 197 00:11:55,960 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: our senses that um, you know this is all about 198 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:02,320 Speaker 1: equity risk for me. Um. And that means uh that 199 00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:04,840 Speaker 1: you know, rates can continue to go up and not 200 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:09,199 Speaker 1: hurt stocks if earnings estimates are also going up. Uh. 201 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 1: And so our our our our our our cents however, 202 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:18,720 Speaker 1: is that we're reaching a peak and earnings revisions bread 203 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,839 Speaker 1: uh And therefore, you know, any further move higher in rates. 204 00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 1: If we were to get, you know, into the one 205 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 1: seventy five range, it starts becoming problematic unless unless we 206 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 1: really can can start looking to two and much much 207 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 1: higher earnings. So we've got up as the bookcase on 208 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:41,199 Speaker 1: SMP index. Uh, you know, but but not a lot 209 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:44,080 Speaker 1: more from here. Lisa Shalit, chief investment officer at Morgan 210 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:48,960 Speaker 1: Stanley Wealth Management, thank you so much. Let's turn our 211 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:52,080 Speaker 1: attention to the global energy markets. I'm looking at w 212 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:54,559 Speaker 1: t I crew here, sixty five dollars, fifty five cents, 213 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:57,520 Speaker 1: down about fifty five cents today, but of course oil 214 00:12:57,559 --> 00:13:01,040 Speaker 1: has been on a major move higher. A w t 215 00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:04,000 Speaker 1: I we touched almost sixty eight dollars today, so a 216 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:09,079 Speaker 1: big move, presumably a play on higher global demand going forward. 217 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 1: And then we also had OPEC kind of holding supply steady. 218 00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 1: Let's get the latest on the global energy markets. We 219 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:18,319 Speaker 1: do that with Regina Mayor, Global Energy head for KPMG. 220 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:22,319 Speaker 1: So Regina again, big move up here in global crude. 221 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:25,880 Speaker 1: What's your takeaway? Well, we're at a nearly two year high. 222 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:29,480 Speaker 1: We haven't seen prices like this since April, and I 223 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 1: think we're going to continue to see a pretty buoyant 224 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:36,280 Speaker 1: price for the next few months. US shale producers are 225 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:40,480 Speaker 1: committed to staying the course and not radically increasing production, 226 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:43,959 Speaker 1: and it's sort of a low risk, high reward strategy 227 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:47,480 Speaker 1: for OPEC plus to pursue to keep the supply out 228 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:49,959 Speaker 1: of the market and continue to drive the price closer 229 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:53,079 Speaker 1: to seventy dollars per barrel. They need that oil revenue 230 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:56,359 Speaker 1: most of them still isn't that doesn't meet their budgetary 231 00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:58,880 Speaker 1: needs for their countries, and so right now they're going 232 00:13:58,920 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 1: to play it for as long as possibly can. Although 233 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:04,439 Speaker 1: you know, the move overnight was really interesting and I'm 234 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 1: wondering on a larger scale, there were these attacks in 235 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:09,599 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabian oil production sites that are some of the 236 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 1: richest in the worlds that I believe produced something like 237 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 1: seven of all the oil consumed UH any year have 238 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 1: that capacity, and there was nobody injured, there were no 239 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 1: production sites actually taken offline, and yet oil prices searched 240 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 1: in particular, Brent, what do you make of that in 241 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 1: terms of what it means about the supply demand dynamic. Well, 242 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 1: I think it means that the market is starting to 243 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:36,720 Speaker 1: worry about the potential coming together of demand and supply. 244 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 1: There was a view that we would hit a point 245 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:40,920 Speaker 1: in the market where things would get pretty tight, that's 246 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 1: the supply overhang would be gone, demand would return to 247 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 1: post a pre pandemic levels, and that we would get 248 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:51,160 Speaker 1: a spike in the crude price. What we're seeing now 249 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 1: is the reality of that potential coming together. But from 250 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 1: what I see, the fundamentals don't actually require the price 251 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 1: to go that high. I think it's still overly frothy 252 00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:05,200 Speaker 1: um and a little bit overly worried because the supply 253 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:07,560 Speaker 1: of a million and a half barrels per day that 254 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 1: open plus is currently keeping off the market can pretty 255 00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 1: quickly come back into the market. But again, the industry 256 00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 1: is grateful for the higher price, so we'll take it 257 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 1: for as long as we can get it. All right, Regina, 258 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:21,720 Speaker 1: talk to us about our good friends in the US 259 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:24,480 Speaker 1: shell patch here with w t I, it's sixty bucks 260 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 1: a barrel. Are they making money? Are they fixing their 261 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:32,000 Speaker 1: balance sheets? What are they doing here? They're definitely making 262 00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:34,960 Speaker 1: money now. Most of them have even made commitments at 263 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:40,400 Speaker 1: any dollars over forty per barrel would be would be 264 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:44,760 Speaker 1: given back to shareholders as UM dividends or being used 265 00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 1: for debt repayments, or being used for stock buy backs, 266 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 1: so we're talking about it differential. At this point, that's 267 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:54,200 Speaker 1: a lot of cash that they'll be able to figure 268 00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:56,040 Speaker 1: out what to do with. I think they're going to 269 00:15:56,120 --> 00:15:58,880 Speaker 1: stay the course relative to little to no production increases 270 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:01,200 Speaker 1: because they've told us to rights to the street that 271 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 1: they're going to be fiscally disciplined cash preservation, returning those 272 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 1: dollars to shareholders, and they have to continue to tell 273 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 1: that story. There may be fringe producers that will get 274 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 1: pretty excited and try to go drill, baby, drill, but 275 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 1: I don't think we'll see that in well, and that's 276 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:19,640 Speaker 1: been kind of the bet right. I mean, a lot 277 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:22,600 Speaker 1: of people have kind of dismissed the swing production factor 278 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 1: of shale producers, the idea that they won't come online 279 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 1: that quickly because they've you know, found light the light 280 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 1: and I have now production discipline. Do you think that 281 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 1: there are any signs to challenge that assumption that perhaps 282 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 1: we could see the shale producers rampant production back up 283 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 1: far beyond what people are expecting, not in the short term, Lisa, 284 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 1: because it's not a tap that they can turn on 285 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:46,120 Speaker 1: and off, and we'd have to start seeing rig counts 286 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 1: go up pretty dramatically UM and flows coming coming up 287 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:52,640 Speaker 1: pretty dramatically. We've been study at eleven million barrels per 288 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:55,880 Speaker 1: day in production in the US UM, but we were 289 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 1: off two million barrels per day with the storm, and 290 00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:02,440 Speaker 1: so I think we'll stay steady at eleven million barrels 291 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:06,119 Speaker 1: per day, and I think the industry will stay disciplined 292 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 1: at least through the next couple of quarters. I'm not 293 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 1: saying they're gonna stay disciplined even through the end of 294 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 1: the year, because it's just too hard to resist drilling 295 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:17,200 Speaker 1: at at a sixty plus dollar per barrel, But that's 296 00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:20,359 Speaker 1: when I think OPEC plus returns that supply to the market, 297 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 1: so they sort of keep it at this goldilocks price. 298 00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:25,040 Speaker 1: It's not too hot, it's not too cold, and it 299 00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:30,160 Speaker 1: maintains maximum revenue for the OPEC plus. Producers were surprised 300 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:33,560 Speaker 1: up just quickly surprised by OPEC plus kind of keeping 301 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:37,119 Speaker 1: supply steady. I was not, actually, I know a lot 302 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 1: of analysts had predicted that at least a million barrels 303 00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 1: per day would come back. I didn't see the rationale 304 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,760 Speaker 1: for that because they had been I mean, the Saudias 305 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:49,399 Speaker 1: in particular have demonstrated they have their hand on the 306 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,960 Speaker 1: steering wheel relative to how well they're managing crude price. 307 00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:55,600 Speaker 1: They're not ready to take their hands off the steering 308 00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:58,240 Speaker 1: wheel and lease things up for grabs again. So I 309 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 1: wasn't surprised, but um I am surprised by the significant 310 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:05,840 Speaker 1: buoyancy in the price. Regina Mayor, thank you so much 311 00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 1: for being with us. Regina Mayor, Global Energy head at 312 00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:11,240 Speaker 1: KPMG talking about some of the massive greens that we've 313 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:14,320 Speaker 1: seen in oil prices and really some pretty big swings 314 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 1: overnight and Paul, it was interesting to see that production 315 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 1: wasn't taken offline and yet still there was a pretty 316 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:24,159 Speaker 1: sizeable move, particularly the price of Brent. Yeah, exactly right, 317 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:25,879 Speaker 1: and we did see that spike in the morning, but 318 00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 1: it's since come back here and again, as Regina was suggesting, 319 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:32,800 Speaker 1: shale producers are going to keep disciplined. I interesting to 320 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:35,480 Speaker 1: see to watch throughout the year, at least, she said, 321 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:38,639 Speaker 1: in the next couple of months. There's a big caveat there. 322 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 1: She said, you know, the near term is truly the 323 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,840 Speaker 1: near term. Right now we are seeing gains throughout the 324 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:47,959 Speaker 1: commodity complex as people foresee stronger growth ahead. Right now, 325 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:51,399 Speaker 1: we are foreseeing more legislation and possibly the passage of 326 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:56,680 Speaker 1: that one point nine trillion dollars stimulus tomorrow. We're talking 327 00:18:56,760 --> 00:19:00,720 Speaker 1: about vaccines, We're talking about the pandemic almost ended ending. 328 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:04,639 Speaker 1: We're forgetting the energy crisis in Texas, and yet Elon 329 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:07,479 Speaker 1: Musk is not. He is working on a potential solution 330 00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:10,399 Speaker 1: despite the fact the energy of energy officials in that 331 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:13,640 Speaker 1: region tried to peg some of the problems on renewable 332 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:16,000 Speaker 1: energy sources. Joining us now to tease out all the 333 00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:19,080 Speaker 1: different parts of this evolving story, as Marine Malik, a 334 00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News reporter covering all things energy, Marine, can you 335 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:26,360 Speaker 1: just start by laying out the energy crisis in Texas 336 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 1: and how it's been connected to the advent and the 337 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:33,960 Speaker 1: surge in renewable energies in that state. Yeah, So Texas 338 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 1: had a widespread generation failure um last month, and where 339 00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 1: you had the state and most of the country is 340 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:46,880 Speaker 1: mostly reliant on natural gas. Natural gas plants tripped offline 341 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,879 Speaker 1: because they were frozen or they couldn't get fuel, So 342 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:54,000 Speaker 1: you had, like the US, more reliant on natural gas 343 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:58,080 Speaker 1: than ever not able to get get gas lay a pipeline. 344 00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:00,840 Speaker 1: And this is we've never seen this tested on this 345 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 1: level before. Power markets, like the grids Texas, like whichever 346 00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 1: grid do you think about, is mostly geared towards preparing 347 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 1: for summer. So the demand wasn't was supposed to match 348 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:17,760 Speaker 1: or maybe even exceed summer demand in in Texas, which 349 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:19,919 Speaker 1: is amazing just to think about that. You'd have more 350 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 1: people turning on power in winter than in summer when 351 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:25,880 Speaker 1: it's like a hundred plus degrees UM. But you had 352 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 1: generation failure across across the board, like wind generation of froze. 353 00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:34,720 Speaker 1: You had obviously solar when there's no when there's cloud 354 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:37,960 Speaker 1: coverage and at night you can't get solar panels to work. 355 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:41,680 Speaker 1: UM and coal piles froze up. And a lot of 356 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:45,240 Speaker 1: the blame early on was was placed on wind and 357 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:49,159 Speaker 1: UM and solar because they are intimate and resources. The 358 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:53,200 Speaker 1: difference is that and and they did see a large 359 00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:56,240 Speaker 1: chunk of generation shut off, But the difference was the 360 00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:59,880 Speaker 1: grid operator was expecting that What has been apparent from 361 00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:04,000 Speaker 1: the last month's events was they now have to rethink 362 00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:08,280 Speaker 1: how to prepare for winter extremes. If there's another repeat. 363 00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:11,280 Speaker 1: All right, So that's kind of a summary, but we 364 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:17,720 Speaker 1: appreciate that summary of what occurred now in rides elon Musk. 365 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:22,399 Speaker 1: What is Tesla doing in the Texas energy market? So 366 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 1: to be fair, um Tesla was likely working on this 367 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:28,119 Speaker 1: project for a while, but it's interesting we don't know 368 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 1: exactly what what his intention is. But batteries can play 369 00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:35,159 Speaker 1: several rules. They are seen as a critical part of 370 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:40,120 Speaker 1: integrated integrating more renewables, and Texas like doesn't have state 371 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 1: mandates or subsidies. They do like like other states do, 372 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:48,040 Speaker 1: to integrate a certain amount. So it's really like costs 373 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:50,480 Speaker 1: for solar and wind have plunged so much. You're seeing 374 00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:55,239 Speaker 1: Texas like adopt these renewable sources in and at an 375 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:58,880 Speaker 1: accelerating pace. So as you get more intimit and resources, 376 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:01,879 Speaker 1: you need more batteries to back that up. And so 377 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:04,680 Speaker 1: there there are a couple of ways at least that 378 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:09,040 Speaker 1: tests I can can have a role in in this market. 379 00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:12,120 Speaker 1: They can you know, at night, when there's too much 380 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:15,199 Speaker 1: um wind or or in the day when there's too 381 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:19,240 Speaker 1: much solar, it sends. They call it the dunker Duck curve. 382 00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 1: When you have too much power and not enough demand 383 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,600 Speaker 1: and it causes prices to collapse. So what we've seen 384 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 1: battery makers do is come in during those low price 385 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,920 Speaker 1: periods soak up like that extra power um that is 386 00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 1: just sitting there really cheap or even being paid to 387 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:38,200 Speaker 1: take that power, and they store it in batteries, and 388 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:41,119 Speaker 1: then when prices are high, like in the evening like 389 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 1: six to eight pm, when you know, like people like 390 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,400 Speaker 1: the sun is going down and and you have people 391 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:48,959 Speaker 1: turning on lights like, then they sell it back at 392 00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:53,960 Speaker 1: that point. Batteries can also provide grid stability services, so 393 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:58,000 Speaker 1: like make sure power is flowing at this like narrow 394 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:01,200 Speaker 1: range it always has to at the hurts, and provide 395 00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:04,920 Speaker 1: frequency control. So they could play multiple markets. We don't 396 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,359 Speaker 1: know exactly what they're going to do, but there's definitely 397 00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:10,200 Speaker 1: opportunity there well. And the reason why I connected the 398 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 1: to the energy crisis a couple of weeks ago in 399 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 1: Texas and these batteries is because they kind of go together, 400 00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,840 Speaker 1: this idea that there could be a missing link here 401 00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:23,200 Speaker 1: of storing renewable energy for times when it's more needed. 402 00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 1: And I'm just wondering how much that crisis kind of 403 00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,960 Speaker 1: gave umph the c F a term to Elon Musk 404 00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 1: to try to get this implemented throughout texas well. As 405 00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 1: I said, we don't know how big his plans are, 406 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:39,480 Speaker 1: but he's coming at the perfect time when this is 407 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:42,720 Speaker 1: exactly like when people are trying to figure out what 408 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:45,680 Speaker 1: the energy transition could look like. And we definitely need 409 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:49,399 Speaker 1: more batteries and need to figure out how to winterize everything. 410 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:52,119 Speaker 1: So it will get like if he has hopes for 411 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 1: grander on a grander scale to implement more batteries and 412 00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:59,000 Speaker 1: and usually you see that if a battery maker comes in, 413 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 1: they're not just doing on project there in it and 414 00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,440 Speaker 1: and you get that know how of building one and 415 00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:07,480 Speaker 1: then you build a lot more. Um So this could 416 00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,160 Speaker 1: definitely help him and he could become a critical part 417 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:13,159 Speaker 1: of the conversation. Noreene Malik, thank you so much for 418 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,720 Speaker 1: being with us Natural Gas and Power markets reporter for 419 00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:19,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg on Elon Musk riding into the Texas energy scene 420 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,680 Speaker 1: where he already has been anyway to try to take 421 00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:25,040 Speaker 1: advantage of a situation as well as perhaps add to it. 422 00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:29,480 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. 423 00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:33,040 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts 424 00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:37,120 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm 425 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:41,360 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller and on fall Sweeney I'm 426 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt sweeney. Before the podcast, you can 427 00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:46,280 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio