WEBVTT - Fed Defies Skeptics With Dynamic Response: BI's Riccadonna 0:00:02.680 --> 0:00:05.360 Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel Podcast. I'm Paul swing you, 0:00:05.400 --> 0:00:07.720 along with my co host Lisa Brahma wits. Each day 0:00:07.760 --> 0:00:10.280 we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for 0:00:10.320 --> 0:00:12.560 you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or 0:00:12.600 --> 0:00:15.480 the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple 0:00:15.560 --> 0:00:18.000 podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:21.200 that Bloomberg dot com. Least, let's bring out a good friend, 0:00:21.239 --> 0:00:24.799 Carl Ricky Donny. He's the chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. Carl, 0:00:24.880 --> 0:00:28.080 you listen to Chairman j Pal. You know, what do 0:00:28.160 --> 0:00:33.159 you take from the Fed's actions this morning? Well, defense 0:00:33.240 --> 0:00:36.560 actions which we expected them to come in with some 0:00:36.840 --> 0:00:40.400 additional measures to support main Street, but this did go 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:44.960 beyond those expectations. The FETE is really showing UH to 0:00:44.960 --> 0:00:48.560 to use Mario drags word, that they're doing whatever it takes. 0:00:48.600 --> 0:00:51.320 So those who thought the FED maybe running low on 0:00:51.400 --> 0:00:54.960 ammunition prior to this crisis are getting a very rude 0:00:55.400 --> 0:00:59.520 uh and welcome awakening, I should say, as we see 0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:03.400 them really pulling out all the stops, showing tremendous dynamism 0:01:03.480 --> 0:01:07.319 and creativity and also aggressiveness in terms of providing support 0:01:07.360 --> 0:01:12.000 to UH financial markets really across the spectrum. There's some 0:01:12.120 --> 0:01:17.200 concern just going forward about the political ramifications for the 0:01:17.200 --> 0:01:20.280 Federal Reserve as they choose which bonds to buy and 0:01:20.400 --> 0:01:24.000 backstop and which not to what's sort of the precedent 0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:27.560 when it comes to the Fed's role in this capacity 0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:32.399 and the fallout afterwards. Well, there's there's really no precedent 0:01:32.480 --> 0:01:34.720 for what we're seeing the FED doing at the moment. 0:01:35.080 --> 0:01:38.399 The FED tries to just step into general markets and 0:01:38.480 --> 0:01:40.840 not pick winners and losers. So they won't be saying 0:01:41.040 --> 0:01:45.720 we'll buy company X and UH and skip company why. Instead, 0:01:45.760 --> 0:01:49.400 they'll purchase a broad spectrum of the securities, whether it's 0:01:49.400 --> 0:01:53.080 in the mortgage market, corporate bond market, and also these 0:01:53.200 --> 0:01:56.680 additional lending facilities. So I think as we think about 0:01:57.000 --> 0:02:02.600 political outcomes here, UH, certainly the FED will be viewed favorably. 0:02:02.680 --> 0:02:06.480 Favorably post crisis when we're looking back to a second 0:02:06.560 --> 0:02:10.840 quarter swoon and economic activity that could rival some of 0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:14.519 the contractions we saw during the Great Depression and unemployment 0:02:14.600 --> 0:02:18.560 rate that's the highest since the Great Depression, and an 0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:22.440 economy that comes out the backside of that, UH actually 0:02:22.520 --> 0:02:27.240 functioning reasonably well with certainly casualties. UH. There will be 0:02:27.280 --> 0:02:31.080 bankruptcies and UH and and businesses that are shuttered, but 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:35.400 come through that much more readily than the experience than 0:02:35.760 --> 0:02:40.200 prior experiences where we saw that kind of economic dislocation. Carl, 0:02:40.240 --> 0:02:43.440 Every economist who I've spoken with applaudse what the Federal 0:02:43.440 --> 0:02:45.720 Reserve is doing right now, saying that they're acting quickly 0:02:45.760 --> 0:02:49.480 and aggressively at a time of incredible stress that's affecting 0:02:49.520 --> 0:02:54.560 individuals both on a health and financial UH. Financial manner 0:02:54.680 --> 0:02:58.200 that is unprecedented in many ways. There is a question though, 0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:01.160 going forward of the Federal Reserves rule and how they 0:03:01.200 --> 0:03:04.680 extricate themselves. And when you say that they buy broad markets, 0:03:05.080 --> 0:03:06.799 one way they're trying to do that is with e 0:03:06.919 --> 0:03:09.840 T s and I'm wondering how that changes the dynamic 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:12.320 at a time when exchange fitted funds, at least in 0:03:12.360 --> 0:03:16.000 credit markets have taken on an outsized role and can 0:03:16.040 --> 0:03:19.080 be viewed as winning or losing based on what the 0:03:19.080 --> 0:03:22.639 FED does. Sure, if if there's a big market and 0:03:22.680 --> 0:03:26.080 there's signs of strain, the Fed is absolutely step stepping 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:29.600 in to help bus stabilize financial conditions. What we're seeing here. 0:03:30.000 --> 0:03:33.520 We really shouldn't think of this as economic stimulus. Certainly, 0:03:33.520 --> 0:03:36.240 the FED has cut industrates to zero, and all the 0:03:36.240 --> 0:03:39.960 measures they're taking should help to prop up the economy, 0:03:40.360 --> 0:03:43.080 won't see lockdown ends. But what really what the FED 0:03:43.200 --> 0:03:47.200 is doing here is financial market stabilization, right, So they're 0:03:47.240 --> 0:03:49.880 not picking winners and losers and industries or credit sectors 0:03:49.920 --> 0:03:54.280 or whatnot. They're looking at core components of the capital markets, 0:03:54.320 --> 0:04:00.440 the municipal market, corporate bonds, also small businesses and whatnot, 0:04:00.480 --> 0:04:04.600 and they are stepping into stabilized conditions so that liquidity 0:04:04.760 --> 0:04:09.160 strains don't become solvency strains, uh in the in the 0:04:09.200 --> 0:04:12.680 longer run. So, Carl, it's it's fairly cleared. I think 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:15.040 that most observers at the US economy right now is 0:04:15.120 --> 0:04:18.120 in a recession. How does Bloomberg Economics kind of map 0:04:18.160 --> 0:04:22.200 out the remainder of the year in terms of GDP? Sure? So, well, 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:25.760 you know, it's difficult to map out what the recovery 0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:28.560 looks like when you still can't see the bottom and 0:04:28.600 --> 0:04:30.520 we don't know how far we're going to fall. So 0:04:31.080 --> 0:04:34.400 until we see some signs of stabilization in the economy 0:04:34.400 --> 0:04:38.000 in those earliest indications will be something like the number 0:04:38.040 --> 0:04:42.799 of unemployment claim filings starting to recede. We haven't gotten 0:04:42.800 --> 0:04:45.960 there yet. Right each week, we're seeing millions and millions, 0:04:46.200 --> 0:04:49.839 six million filings UH in the in the latest week alone, 0:04:49.920 --> 0:04:53.400 So until we see jobless claims start to pull back, 0:04:54.040 --> 0:04:56.520 then we don't really know how high the unemployment rate 0:04:56.600 --> 0:04:59.800 is going to go. So based on our projections U 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:04.480 we're about fifteen million filings of jobless claims so far, 0:05:05.160 --> 0:05:07.600 if we get to twenty million by the middle of April, 0:05:07.640 --> 0:05:11.080 so with next week's data, we're looking at an unemployment 0:05:11.160 --> 0:05:15.839 rate heading to about fifteen percent or potentially higher in 0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:20.440 the second quarter. That kind of baseline expectations how many 0:05:20.440 --> 0:05:23.360 workers were shut out of the economy gives us some 0:05:23.480 --> 0:05:27.440 context to understand how deep the economic dive will be 0:05:27.480 --> 0:05:29.359 in the quarter as well. Right, it takes a certain 0:05:29.440 --> 0:05:32.200 number of workers to bruce a certain amount of GDP, 0:05:32.360 --> 0:05:34.560 So if we know unemployment has gone from three and 0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:37.040 a half to fifteen, then we can map out what 0:05:37.120 --> 0:05:40.279 that looks like for GDP. Wow. Carl ka Dona, chief 0:05:40.320 --> 0:05:42.880 US economists for Bloomberck Economics, thanks so much for joining us. 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:47.080 We always appreciate your commentary and thoughts on particularly today 0:05:47.120 --> 0:05:49.400 that you know that we got the jobless claims LEASA 0:05:49.440 --> 0:05:53.040 and then the this this really aggressive uh move by 0:05:53.120 --> 0:05:55.479 the Fed. I think looking back, as Karl suggested, you know, 0:05:55.480 --> 0:05:57.920 we're gonna look back and say on this and say, 0:05:57.960 --> 0:06:02.200 the Federal Reserve really really formed. Well, they were aggressive, Uh, 0:06:02.360 --> 0:06:05.839 they were early, um, and they were consistent um, and 0:06:05.880 --> 0:06:07.919 they really thought outside of the box here. So the 0:06:07.960 --> 0:06:11.360 Fed is certainly trying, uh it's most to keep ahead 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:16.599 of this, Paul. Today is a historic day. I think 0:06:16.640 --> 0:06:18.760 that we all are going to look back on today 0:06:19.000 --> 0:06:22.880 as reaching a tipping point with the Federal Reserve absolutely 0:06:23.000 --> 0:06:26.719 solidifying its role at the forefront of trying to save 0:06:26.800 --> 0:06:30.480 the economy of the world's biggest economy. What we've seen, 0:06:30.600 --> 0:06:33.240 I mean that that to me, I feel like is 0:06:33.279 --> 0:06:35.440 a fair assessment of what we saw today. I think 0:06:35.480 --> 0:06:37.159 you're right least I think they were. You know, they've 0:06:37.200 --> 0:06:41.400 been early, I think relatively speaking relative to fiscal policy certainly, 0:06:41.760 --> 0:06:44.320 and they've certainly been aggressive here and again another two 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:47.719 point three trillion dollar package today, really focusing on small 0:06:47.720 --> 0:06:50.800 and midsized business as well as state and local municipalities. Yeah, 0:06:50.800 --> 0:06:54.320 it also raises some philosophical questions about the Central Bank 0:06:54.360 --> 0:06:57.400 to the world, which it increasingly has becommon. When we 0:06:57.440 --> 0:07:00.400 talk philosophical questions, no one better to talk to them 0:07:00.760 --> 0:07:03.520 with than Barry rid Holts, who is a Bloomberg Opinion 0:07:03.520 --> 0:07:06.599 contributor as well as the co founder of rid Holts 0:07:06.600 --> 0:07:10.240 Wealth Management and of course the host of Masters in 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:14.120 Business on Bloomberg Radio. Barry, I want to talk about 0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:16.720 the FEDS rule here J Powell kind of drawing the 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:20.920 distinction between lending versus giving money and saying that they 0:07:20.920 --> 0:07:26.440 were a lender, and the congressional leadership they were the givers. 0:07:26.520 --> 0:07:29.720 And yet it does seem like Congress moves just by 0:07:29.840 --> 0:07:32.600 nature of the body and by design slower than the 0:07:32.640 --> 0:07:35.920 FED can. And the FED has taken the central role. 0:07:36.400 --> 0:07:38.800 What are the consequences for the FED steps and the 0:07:38.800 --> 0:07:41.280 measures that we have seen so far? So let me 0:07:41.360 --> 0:07:47.000 just push back a tiny bit against your question, because historically, 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:50.400 outside of the O eight oh nine crisis, we have 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:53.720 seen Congress move quickly. They moved fairly quickly in the 0:07:53.720 --> 0:07:58.000 Great Depression, they moved fairly quick immediately after Pearl Harbor, 0:07:58.160 --> 0:08:01.800 after September eleven, so they can step up to the 0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:06.880 plate when necessary. They really were just a wall in 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:10.360 O eight oh nine. And in fact, the biggest distinction 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:14.200 between the crisis and the O eight crisis is that 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:18.720 it is both monetary and fiscal in its response. And 0:08:18.760 --> 0:08:22.840 I think J. Powell added exactly right. The said is 0:08:22.880 --> 0:08:26.240 the central bank bankers to other bankers, and they're there 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:29.240 to make sure that the loans flow and that there's 0:08:29.280 --> 0:08:32.920 plenty of liquidity. If you're going to give money away 0:08:33.120 --> 0:08:36.640 or spend money, well that's a decision that must come 0:08:36.679 --> 0:08:40.480 from Congress. So Barry, give us a sense of kind 0:08:40.480 --> 0:08:44.120 of how you think all this FED action is really 0:08:44.120 --> 0:08:47.360 going to impact the markets markets. Obviously it's a risk. 0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:49.640 On day today we're seeing the equity markets trade up 0:08:49.679 --> 0:08:52.280 in response to the FED move here, how do you 0:08:52.280 --> 0:08:54.560 think that the actions were really plat in the market 0:08:54.600 --> 0:08:58.520 over time? So all my technical friends are looking at 0:08:58.559 --> 0:09:01.680 what's taking places more or less a dead cat bounce. Hey, 0:09:01.720 --> 0:09:07.360 we'll bounce the lows and that's when the snapback rally 0:09:07.360 --> 0:09:09.840 will run out of steam and then we'll either retest 0:09:10.080 --> 0:09:14.000 or make new lows. I understand how they feel that way. 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:18.440 I'm not a in that camp, because if we do, 0:09:18.640 --> 0:09:21.600 you know, just today Fiser came out with testing a 0:09:21.600 --> 0:09:24.440 new treatment for this. If we can actually get to 0:09:24.480 --> 0:09:26.120 the point where we see the light at the end 0:09:26.120 --> 0:09:29.000 of the tunnel and the lockdown ends, well the FED 0:09:29.040 --> 0:09:31.800 will have done their job, Congress will have done their job, 0:09:32.400 --> 0:09:36.360 and we'll start moving towards a more normal footing. It's 0:09:36.360 --> 0:09:39.920 going to take a while, but it's not oblique, and 0:09:39.960 --> 0:09:42.600 there are signs that you know, there is a natural 0:09:42.840 --> 0:09:46.560 end to this crisis. Comment. There has been a general 0:09:46.600 --> 0:09:49.480 feeling that the Federal Reserve is acted appropriately given the 0:09:49.480 --> 0:09:53.199 magnitude of the shock uh that we're seeing right now. 0:09:53.480 --> 0:09:56.360 Still a lot of questions remain about how the Federal 0:09:56.400 --> 0:09:59.880 Reserve will extricate itself from this program, as well as 0:10:00.120 --> 0:10:03.240 how it chooses which exchange did funds to buy. We're 0:10:03.280 --> 0:10:06.199 seeing For example, h y G, the biggest hiled bondy 0:10:06.280 --> 0:10:08.439 t F in the United States, surged the most in 0:10:08.559 --> 0:10:12.000 October two thousand and eight. Today, are you concerned about 0:10:12.080 --> 0:10:16.240 questions of moral hazard and choosing winners and losers that 0:10:16.320 --> 0:10:20.160 will inevitably dog the FED following this? Sure? Always and 0:10:20.160 --> 0:10:22.600 and in fact, you know, we don't even have to 0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:25.800 wait five years to look do a post mortem on this. 0:10:26.480 --> 0:10:28.679 There was no reason for the Fed to go to zero. 0:10:28.760 --> 0:10:31.880 It looked like they were panicking. They could have cut 0:10:31.960 --> 0:10:35.360 a half half a point and left it there. It 0:10:35.440 --> 0:10:39.600 makes it that much more difficult to extricate themselves. I 0:10:39.640 --> 0:10:43.240 give Ben Bernankee high ratings for how he managed the 0:10:43.280 --> 0:10:45.959 period from O eight oh nine. He was he was 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:51.480 way too accommodative beforehand and arguably stayed on emergency footing 0:10:51.559 --> 0:10:56.080 way too long. It's very easy to show up at 0:10:56.120 --> 0:10:59.520 the party, uh with the punch bowl, which is what 0:10:59.559 --> 0:11:02.480 the Fed is doing. It's much more challenging to take 0:11:02.520 --> 0:11:05.960 that punch bowl away. We'll see if J Powell is 0:11:05.960 --> 0:11:08.560 that are any better than Janet Yellen or Ben Bananke 0:11:08.840 --> 0:11:12.640 at bringing rates back to more normal levels. It's very, 0:11:12.800 --> 0:11:15.959 very difficult to do. So Barry is he is he 0:11:16.320 --> 0:11:18.440 kind of take a look at this market place here 0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:21.160 again where we've had a number of updates here, how 0:11:21.160 --> 0:11:23.560 are you really thinking about it? Here? Are you thinking 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:26.000 that this is a a real move or it's just 0:11:26.080 --> 0:11:28.440 kind of a bounce within the context of a bear market. 0:11:29.280 --> 0:11:32.720 So I love to think in opposites. I love to 0:11:32.760 --> 0:11:35.120 stake out of position and then try and say, okay, 0:11:35.160 --> 0:11:38.440 what is the exact opposite position, and might that be right? 0:11:38.960 --> 0:11:43.840 You know, the real optimistic perspective is this is an externality. 0:11:43.920 --> 0:11:46.280 This is a one off event, and once we get 0:11:46.320 --> 0:11:48.800 through it, we'll go back to business as usual and 0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:52.120 the priorable market will resume its former trend and the 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:56.880 economy will will recover and everything will be fine. You know, historically, 0:11:56.880 --> 0:12:00.679 look at seven, not only was that the day, but 0:12:00.760 --> 0:12:04.840 Pique the trough. It was more than and that uh 0:12:04.920 --> 0:12:08.160 down draft never derailed the economy or the bull market. 0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:11.480 So best case scenario, this is sort of like that 0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:14.920 worst case scenario. We're in a recession that lasts a 0:12:14.920 --> 0:12:18.640 long time. The drawdowns continue. This is a dead cat bounce, 0:12:18.679 --> 0:12:22.160 and we make new lows below doubt twenty and maybe 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:24.640 down to I don't know, pick the number two thousand 0:12:24.679 --> 0:12:27.720 on the smp UM, and it will take a while 0:12:27.800 --> 0:12:32.959 to heal from this. The truth reality usually falls between 0:12:33.280 --> 0:12:37.800 either extreme I doubt that this will all disappear once 0:12:37.840 --> 0:12:40.920 it's over, once we get a treatment and a vaccine. 0:12:40.960 --> 0:12:42.520 It's not all going to go away. There's a lot 0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:47.720 of damage in the economy revealed by the collapse and 0:12:47.880 --> 0:12:51.880 I also doubt that this is a seventies era decade 0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:54.560 long problem. This will take a couple of years to 0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:59.079 fully recover from UM. But you know, you're starting to 0:12:59.120 --> 0:13:02.560 see some positive signs of this peaking. We still have 0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:05.439 a lot of work to go, but it doesn't feel 0:13:05.480 --> 0:13:09.000 like this is gonna last forever. Barry Dholts, thanks so 0:13:09.080 --> 0:13:12.160 much for joining us. As always, Barry Ridholts, founder, Redholt's 0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:15.560 Wealth Management is also Bloomberg Opinion calumnists and host of 0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:22.520 Masters of Business podcasts. Well as we talk about the 0:13:22.559 --> 0:13:26.600 Federal Reserve is two point three trillion dollar extra bailout 0:13:26.640 --> 0:13:31.200 money for credit markets and beyond, we have perhaps buried 0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:35.160 the lead, which is that six point six million individuals 0:13:35.160 --> 0:13:38.560 in the United States filed or I guess we're able 0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:41.680 to file for unemployment claims in the past week, bringing 0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:46.040 the total three week claims figure too well above fifteen 0:13:46.360 --> 0:13:50.000 million people. The jobless rate on track to exceed, well 0:13:50.040 --> 0:13:53.120 exceed ten per cent for the first time since the 0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:56.440 nineteen eighties, leading to a question of just how bad 0:13:56.600 --> 0:13:58.640 is it and how quickly will some of these individuals 0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:01.120 be able to get their jobs back? Joining us now, 0:14:01.160 --> 0:14:03.920 Hayden Brown president and chief executive officer of up work, 0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:08.680 based in Mountain View, California, which up work is a 0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:12.320 job placement agency that focuses online, which is perfect for 0:14:12.360 --> 0:14:14.280 the environment that we're living in. We're all in our 0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:17.200 on our screens and in our cyber worlds. Hayden, thank 0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:19.280 you so much for being with us. Do you have 0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:22.280 a sense of how quickly people are able to sort 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:26.120 of reroot their skills find jobs, say in you know, 0:14:26.280 --> 0:14:30.600 warehouses or other necessary rules as they wait this period 0:14:30.960 --> 0:14:35.480 of tumult out. Certainly this is affecting different parts of 0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:39.160 the economy, varied differently. You mentioned work workers and warehouses 0:14:39.200 --> 0:14:41.840 and those types of jobs. I think they're just getting 0:14:41.840 --> 0:14:43.640 pummeled and there's not a lot to do to move 0:14:43.680 --> 0:14:46.480 those online. But in other sectors of the economy where 0:14:46.480 --> 0:14:49.120 the work is more about knowledge work and digital work, 0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:53.120 we're seeing clients and freelancers on our platform just moving 0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:56.600 rapidly to expand their remote work deployments and get more 0:14:56.640 --> 0:15:01.000 and more talent through online platforms like upward. So interesting, Heyden, 0:15:01.040 --> 0:15:04.160 do you think this is maybe accelerating a trend which 0:15:04.200 --> 0:15:05.760 may have already been there, which is kind of the 0:15:05.760 --> 0:15:09.520 work from home type of situations and maybe expand new industries, 0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:12.080 new functionalities. Is this something that you think will be 0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:13.800 a longer term trend when we come out on the 0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:16.920 other side of this, Paul, I think you're right about that. 0:15:17.000 --> 0:15:19.320 This has definitely been a long term trend where more 0:15:19.320 --> 0:15:22.160 and more workers have been demanding freedom and flexibility and 0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:25.080 how they work and really clamoring to get more of that, 0:15:25.160 --> 0:15:27.360 and employers have started to see some of the benefits. 0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:31.200 But the current crisis has no doubt accelerated massively people's 0:15:31.200 --> 0:15:34.840 adoption of both the tools and technology that enable remote work, 0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:37.800 as well as the cultural and behavioral things that people 0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:40.640 need to do to really collaborate successfully together remotely. So 0:15:40.960 --> 0:15:43.760 I think that those patterns of behavior will be here 0:15:43.800 --> 0:15:45.400 to stay, and this is going to be a seismic 0:15:45.440 --> 0:15:49.520 shift that lasts well beyond the current crisis. Hayden, what 0:15:49.600 --> 0:15:52.600 does the research show as far as the percentage of 0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:57.040 the workforce that can go online at this point? You know, 0:15:57.080 --> 0:15:59.160 the numbers on that vary, But what we've seen in 0:15:59.200 --> 0:16:01.560 the US already recently m I t to the study 0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:05.120 where of the workforce or more has moved from commuting 0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:08.160 to offices to online, and so I think there have 0:16:08.240 --> 0:16:10.200 been some myths where people felt like this is something 0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:13.320 that they potentially couldn't do. But we've seen you more 0:16:13.360 --> 0:16:15.520 than an eight fold increase in people moving their work 0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:17.800 online in the last couple of weeks alone, which I 0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:20.600 think does indicate people are realizing there's a lot more 0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:24.520 they can do online than maybe what they previously saw it. So, hey, 0:16:24.560 --> 0:16:26.960 didn't you know it's interesting here? You know a lot 0:16:26.960 --> 0:16:29.400 of we get the jobs number of jobless claims again 0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:32.560 this morning. You know another staggering number six point six 0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:36.160 million people that you know, cumulatively about sixteen or seventeen 0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:39.160 million people over the last three weeks. What can recently 0:16:39.200 --> 0:16:42.520 downsize employees do to maybe try to secure a new 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:46.600 job quickly given all the uncertainty that's out there. Yeah, 0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:48.240 I think one of the first things for people to 0:16:48.280 --> 0:16:50.680 focus on is making sure their skills are up to date. 0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:53.800 This is a great opportunity for reskilling or brushing up 0:16:53.840 --> 0:16:56.480 on knowledge of tools and technology that really are required 0:16:56.800 --> 0:16:59.320 both for the digital economy that just exists today, as 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:02.520 well as for working remotely. The second thing that people 0:17:02.520 --> 0:17:05.280 can do is coming onto online work platforms like a 0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:09.199 work assembling a really detailed profile that showcases what they 0:17:09.240 --> 0:17:12.479 can do, an examples and testimonials from past clients or 0:17:12.480 --> 0:17:15.399 employers of of how great their skills are. And then finally, 0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:19.360 I'd say, as they reach out to perspective future clients, 0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:22.520 really be tailored and how they approach those clients and 0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:25.399 and address the specific needs that clients have outlined in 0:17:25.440 --> 0:17:28.080 a scope of work or a post in that they've made, 0:17:28.359 --> 0:17:30.880 so that the it's clear that the worker has really 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:33.280 thought through and is ready to commit to those specific 0:17:33.359 --> 0:17:35.840 needs of the client, not just kind of is generally 0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:39.200 skilled in the area. Taking a step back, I'm wondering 0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:42.320 how much hiring there's actually going on right now, given 0:17:42.320 --> 0:17:45.119 the fact that we talk so much about the actual 0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:48.440 jobless claims that are blowing all historical precedents out of 0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:52.080 the water. Yeah, I think it's really kind of two 0:17:52.119 --> 0:17:54.560 different stories out there today. You know, there are sectors 0:17:54.560 --> 0:17:57.439 of the economy that essentially are frozen and hiring and 0:17:57.480 --> 0:17:59.840 so much activity has come to a screeching hope. But 0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:02.400 then what we're seeing is a lot of businesses they're 0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:05.480 just really working on business continuity and they still are 0:18:06.119 --> 0:18:08.640 moving forward. They are hiring, they are trying to get 0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:10.080 work done, and they're just trying to figure out how 0:18:10.160 --> 0:18:12.920 to do it in this new context and frankly figuring 0:18:12.920 --> 0:18:14.920 out that a lot of the traditional ways that they were, 0:18:15.200 --> 0:18:18.520 for example, hiring traditional staff just aren't working in a 0:18:18.560 --> 0:18:20.920 world where we're you know, sheltering in place, and that 0:18:21.119 --> 0:18:23.400 the changes have been so rapid, and so I think 0:18:23.400 --> 0:18:25.480 a lot of businesses there is light in the edge 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:26.960 and at the end of the tunnel for them, but 0:18:27.000 --> 0:18:29.320 they're just having to adapt to new channels to find 0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:32.359 talented individuals outside of kind of the normal ways that 0:18:32.359 --> 0:18:34.960 they've done that. So, Hayden, what is your sense, you know, 0:18:34.960 --> 0:18:37.720 we we've seen these historic numbers, as Lisa's just referencing, 0:18:38.040 --> 0:18:40.920 what is your sense of how this labor market might 0:18:40.960 --> 0:18:43.080 play out over the next you know, year or so. 0:18:43.119 --> 0:18:45.040 It's obviously gonna be really ugly here. We're going to 0:18:45.119 --> 0:18:47.880 get unemployment, you know, some numbers for suggesting today maybe 0:18:47.920 --> 0:18:49.959 as high as fifteen percent. But do you think it's 0:18:49.960 --> 0:18:53.480 going to play out over time? It definitely as hard 0:18:53.520 --> 0:18:54.840 to say where this is going to go, and we 0:18:54.880 --> 0:18:57.280 don't feel like we're at the bottom yet, so it's 0:18:57.320 --> 0:18:59.680 going to be a rough couple of quarters. I think 0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:02.440 been back. Some of the trends that we're watching are 0:19:02.480 --> 0:19:05.080 really around the freelancing trend in America, which has been 0:19:05.080 --> 0:19:07.200 a big trend on the rise. More than fifty seven 0:19:07.200 --> 0:19:10.200 million Americans were freelancing last year, contributing over a trillion 0:19:10.240 --> 0:19:13.240 dollars to the economy. So I think in this time 0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:16.639 of crisis, people are increasingly turning to alternative where they 0:19:16.640 --> 0:19:19.960 can drive income through freelancing, either part time or full time, 0:19:20.119 --> 0:19:22.240 trying to figure out how to make ends work ends meet, 0:19:22.280 --> 0:19:24.520 and I think we'll see that trend continue to be 0:19:24.560 --> 0:19:26.920 both accelerated by the crisis and kind of endure even 0:19:27.000 --> 0:19:30.560 after things start to recover. It's interesting that that you 0:19:30.600 --> 0:19:34.000 talk about freelancers because people have been talked about the 0:19:34.000 --> 0:19:37.560 gig economy and how people who are in that area 0:19:37.880 --> 0:19:41.360 have suffered disproportionately because their income has been cut off 0:19:41.400 --> 0:19:43.960 that much faster. Do you expect it to actually come 0:19:44.000 --> 0:19:47.840 back online that much more quickly, or perhaps even before 0:19:47.880 --> 0:19:51.680 the shutdowns end, just because jobs are so much more 0:19:51.680 --> 0:19:57.040 fungible and flexible on in an online world. Absolutely, So, 0:19:57.240 --> 0:19:59.760 I think that people will realize that they need to 0:19:59.800 --> 0:20:02.240 be very cautious about a lot of their hiring and 0:20:02.280 --> 0:20:05.080 we'll look to freelancers as an alternative where they can 0:20:05.119 --> 0:20:07.960 get really skilled talent and not have the same level 0:20:08.000 --> 0:20:10.720 of long term commitment. Frankly, uh. And they're going to 0:20:10.800 --> 0:20:12.679 realize also that this is a great way that they 0:20:12.680 --> 0:20:15.240 can tap into skilled people that actually are not in 0:20:15.240 --> 0:20:18.720 their own backyards, and they can find freelancers across the country, 0:20:18.760 --> 0:20:21.000 across the globe who can help fill a lot of 0:20:21.000 --> 0:20:23.480 the skills gap that they have been facing even before 0:20:23.520 --> 0:20:25.320 this crisis. And it certainly is going to continue to 0:20:25.359 --> 0:20:28.840 increase as they work to evolve into even more digitally 0:20:28.840 --> 0:20:32.440 oriented businesses and workplaces. So I think that the freelancing 0:20:32.480 --> 0:20:34.440 trend is definitely going to continue to accelerate and we'll 0:20:34.480 --> 0:20:39.240 rebound even more quickly once the recovery starts happening. Heyden, 0:20:39.400 --> 0:20:41.600 where just give us a sense of where corporate America 0:20:41.720 --> 0:20:44.359 is in terms of working from home? I know, you know, 0:20:44.400 --> 0:20:47.200 certain companies really embrace it, a lot of other companies 0:20:47.600 --> 0:20:49.680 not so much. Kind of where do you think we are? 0:20:49.720 --> 0:20:51.600 And I think that's going to play out given what 0:20:51.640 --> 0:20:55.400 we're experiencing right right here. I think all what we're 0:20:55.400 --> 0:20:58.600 seeing from our customers is everyone is scrambling to figure 0:20:58.600 --> 0:21:00.800 out how they can obviously work from home more successfully. 0:21:00.800 --> 0:21:02.960 And we're trying to help them because we've been actually 0:21:03.040 --> 0:21:04.919 doing work from home for twenty years inside of our 0:21:04.920 --> 0:21:07.760 own company as well as running the largest online platform 0:21:07.800 --> 0:21:10.480 that lets people work from home. So uh, clients are 0:21:10.520 --> 0:21:12.760 reaching out to us right now and asking questions about 0:21:12.760 --> 0:21:15.560 how they can expand the types of work that gets 0:21:15.560 --> 0:21:18.159 done working from home, even if they had previously you know, 0:21:18.200 --> 0:21:21.439 smaller populations of employees or freelancers doing this kind of model. 0:21:21.840 --> 0:21:24.240 And so with that appetite and when I think a 0:21:24.280 --> 0:21:27.320 lot of thoughts to business continuity even outside of this 0:21:27.440 --> 0:21:30.080 specific crisis, a lot of the companies are talking to 0:21:30.160 --> 0:21:32.720 us about how do we create more of these flexible 0:21:32.760 --> 0:21:36.359 talent benches that help us maintain continuity even in situations 0:21:36.359 --> 0:21:38.439 where people have to work from home in mass and 0:21:38.480 --> 0:21:40.520 that's I think going to be something they care about 0:21:40.560 --> 0:21:44.400 again well after this current crisis passes. Haydon Brown, thank 0:21:44.440 --> 0:21:46.680 you so much for joining us to really appreciate your 0:21:46.720 --> 0:21:49.399