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Speaker 1: Welcome into fantasy pros. On the fantasy football side, I'm

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Speaker 1: Chris Welsh and today, who are some bus that we've

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Speaker 1: got to avoid? Well, we've got Derek Brown here to

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Speaker 1: tell us how and who to avoid.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: Of course these guys might not be players that we like,

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Speaker 1: completely moving away from an undrafted list, but it's more

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Speaker 1: about we really don't like the value and obviously the

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Speaker 1: production based on the value is going to bust. So

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Speaker 1: how and who to avoid in the bus market. Deebro's

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Speaker 1: got you covered, and Deebro, let's just jump right into it.

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Speaker 1: Deebro's a bust. Number one for the season is who?

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Speaker 2: Man?

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Speaker 3: I know he just got paid and people are gonna

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Speaker 3: hate this. This is Kieren Williams. He's RB twelve, twenty

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Speaker 3: sixth overall in the ECR. And I can't rank Kien

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Speaker 3: Williams that high. I can't draft Kyen Williams that high.

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Speaker 3: And I know he was the RB ten last year.

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Speaker 3: Well she I get it, and I know he was

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Speaker 3: their guy. He was top two and snapshare opportunities, share

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Speaker 3: red zone touches for the Rams last year. I get

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Speaker 3: that he's a paid player now and congrats for Kyroen

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Speaker 3: on getting the fat check, but the efficiency wasn't.

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Speaker 2: There last year.

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Speaker 3: Wel I think Jarquest Hunter is going to factor into

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Speaker 3: this backfield. And if Kiraen Williams doesn't return with those

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Speaker 3: top five usage numbers in this offense, he doesn't have

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Speaker 3: the efficiency and he doesn't have the pass game utility

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Speaker 3: to bail him out. The rams have not been thrown

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Speaker 3: to the running backs. The Kien Williams is a receiving

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Speaker 3: That narrative died with him as a prospect in college.

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Speaker 3: It hasn't happened in the NFL. They've been bottom five

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Speaker 3: in target shared to the running back position, and I

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Speaker 3: don't see that changing in the year twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 3: So if Kyraen Williams is this volume dependent back that

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Speaker 3: we're like, oh, he's getting everything, that's really what fuels

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Speaker 3: his upside. If he's not that guy, If the ninety

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Speaker 3: five percent snap shares dropped to seventy percent, sixty five percent,

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Speaker 3: the Kyron Williams is an RB two. A volume field

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Speaker 3: are too for a player that last year ranked outside

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Speaker 3: the top thirty five running backs Welsh per Fantasy Points data,

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Speaker 3: an explosive run rate, misstackles, forced per attempt and yards

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Speaker 3: are to contact per attempt. This is not a player

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Speaker 3: that I want to spend an RB one or at

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Speaker 3: least pay an RB one price tag for in Fantasy

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Speaker 3: for twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: I can't do it.

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Speaker 1: Well, if if some butts were candies and nuts, we'd

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Speaker 1: all have a merry Christmas, as we were told, and

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Speaker 1: that it wasn't planned this way. But I'm kind of

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Speaker 1: on the opposite side of a lot of these bus Specifically,

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Speaker 1: this one is tough. I actually wanted to bust Kyron

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Speaker 1: Williams coming into this season.

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Speaker 2: But all the.

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Speaker 1: Same things you just talked about with Hunter are the

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Speaker 1: same things we said last year about Cooram and the

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Speaker 1: year before. I'm say you, I'm saying the narrative, the

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Speaker 1: public narrative of Kyra Williams every season, is that they

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Speaker 1: will stop using him. They will use this other great

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Speaker 1: back that's there, and they don't. From weeks ten on

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Speaker 1: he didn't play Week eighteen. From weeks ten through seventeen,

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Speaker 1: he was the tenth scoring running back in half PPR

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Speaker 1: double digit points scored every single week. From week twelve

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Speaker 1: on week ten on he was inside the top ten.

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Speaker 1: They just we haven't seen the McVeigh offense that has

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Speaker 1: decided to use some committee approach and they just paid

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Speaker 1: Kyron Williams. I get where you're going because it doesn't

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Speaker 1: feel great, especially in a past receiving RB world where

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Speaker 1: you just saw Devon ah Chan go and you know,

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Speaker 1: you see Jamir Gibbs, and you even look at like

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Speaker 1: Bucky Irving who's a pounder but he can catch the

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Speaker 1: ball at the backfield. And then you look at Kyen

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Speaker 1: Williams and you go, oh, I don't know if I

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Speaker 1: can do it, but he does do it in that offense.

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Speaker 1: He does it year after year this I mean again,

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Speaker 1: the entire second half of the season. He's a top

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Speaker 1: ten running back. They just paid him and it seems

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Speaker 1: like played over narratives. This is a tough one. I

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Speaker 1: think I'm a little bit closer at costs than outside

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Speaker 1: of a bust here, But I get where you're.

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Speaker 2: Going with it.

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Speaker 3: This feels like all the reasons that everybody wanted to

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Speaker 3: draft for Shod White outside of the contract. This feels

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Speaker 3: like all the reasons that everybody wanted to draft for

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Speaker 3: Shod White, and for Shod White was the guy until

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Speaker 3: enter super talented rookie explosive running back Bucky Irving last year,

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Speaker 3: and I think that that's what's going to happen to

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Speaker 3: Kyran Williams. Jerk Quest Hunter is going to factor into

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Speaker 3: this backfield and Kyron can still be the lead guy.

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Speaker 3: Bet An RB one price tag, I can't do it.

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Speaker 1: Bus Number two is another running back, and I can

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Speaker 1: tell you as a little tease here in just a

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Speaker 1: tiny bit, Deebro's got his biggest bust of the twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five season coming up, and that is saved for

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Speaker 1: the end. But we've got one more running back that

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Speaker 1: we're going to hit here, and this is another one.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I feel like you're picking on me, picking

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Speaker 1: on another guy that I like, and I'm actually gonna

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Speaker 1: just jump in here before you bust him out, and

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Speaker 1: it's Chuba Hubbard. Chuba Hubbard is going to be one

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Speaker 1: of your biggest bus as far as adyp gos top

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Speaker 1: twenty RB in there, Rico Dada was outed, which I

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Speaker 1: think or was brought in, which I think potentially has

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Speaker 1: some people concern. I would say, before you start to

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Speaker 1: bust him, I want to hear where your narrative goes

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Speaker 1: with it. Because Cuba from weeks ten through sixteen. He

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Speaker 1: didn't play in seventeen and eighteen, so I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to add that. So I'm obviously making a little bit

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Speaker 1: of case for myself here. But in half PPR, he

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Speaker 1: was the eleventh scoring running back. He was a top

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Speaker 1: twelve running back in fantasy essentially through the second half

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Speaker 1: of the season that he played. We also saw some

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Speaker 1: big volume. We saw the offense pick itself back up

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Speaker 1: is Rico Daudell coming into town enough to not make

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Speaker 1: him at least even like a solid floor RB. I think,

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Speaker 1: based on what we know what his upside is, which

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Speaker 1: we saw last year it being a top twelve running

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Speaker 1: back to where he's being drafted, I kind of see

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Speaker 1: him as a value. But what say you and why

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Speaker 1: is he a bust for you?

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Speaker 3: So I think we cannot be expecting last year to

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Speaker 3: repat heat and I think this is a perfect scenario

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Speaker 3: for Chewba Hubbard. Last year was a perfect runout if

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Speaker 3: you look at what happened for Chewba Hubbard. So Miles

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Speaker 3: Sanders left week ten and he was out weeks ten

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Speaker 3: through seventeen. If you look at the beginning usage for

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Speaker 3: Chewba Hubbard of the season, I think that's closer to

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Speaker 3: what this team wants for Chewba Hubbard or what they

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Speaker 3: want for this backfield. So before so weeks one through three,

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Speaker 3: before I think Carolina figured out, Okay, Miles Sanders really

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Speaker 3: didn't have the juice anymore. Okay, Rico Doudele, Trevor etn

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Speaker 3: do have the juice. Before they realized that Sanders just

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Speaker 3: didn't have it anymore, you had Chewba Hubbard playing fifty

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Speaker 3: four to fifty eight percent of the snaps the red

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Speaker 3: zone rushing opportunities Hubbard had.

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Speaker 2: Three and Miles Sanders had two. And I understand this

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Speaker 2: is a really.

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Speaker 3: Small sample size, but even if you look at, Okay,

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Speaker 3: the first nine weeks of the season, when Miles Sanders there,

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Speaker 3: Chewba Hubbard wasn't playing this bell cow role. He only

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Speaker 3: ran a route on forty eight point six percent of dropbacks,

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Speaker 3: he had a nine point seven percent target chair and

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Speaker 3: he's not receiving, is not in his calling card. So

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Speaker 3: again a player, we're putting everything on Hubbard. He needs

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Speaker 3: to own the backfield and the early downs. And after

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Speaker 3: a season where they asked Chewba Hubbard and he answered

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Speaker 3: it and go out and be the bell cow. He's

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Speaker 3: a substandard receiving back. They go out and they add

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Speaker 3: Rico Daldo, who is coming off a surprising thousand yard

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Speaker 3: season of his own. Trevor Etn is as good, if

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Speaker 3: not a better, receiving back.

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Speaker 2: Than both of those guys.

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Speaker 3: So you look at the small sample before they realize Sanders.

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Speaker 2: Just was cooked. This was a split backfield.

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Speaker 3: After Sanders was out is really where we saw Hubbard

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Speaker 3: truly take off, because before that he wasn't getting a

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Speaker 3: ton of routes at least, I mean, he wasn't a

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Speaker 3: running fifty percent of routes on dropbacks. His pass game

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Speaker 3: utility wasn't great. He wasn't good as a receiver for

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Speaker 3: the entirety of the year. So Hubbard, I think this

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Speaker 3: was a perfect storm scenario for him last year. And

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Speaker 3: after that type of season, what did Carolina do? The

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Speaker 3: clearest picture, we have to look at what teams think

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Speaker 3: about players and how they want to build the roster

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Speaker 3: is through the draft and through free agency, and in

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Speaker 3: both of those outlets, Carolina said we need more running backs.

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Speaker 3: And yes, a lot of people say that for Jonathan

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Speaker 3: Brooks and say, well, yeh, that's because he's not gonna play.

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Speaker 2: We also need to understand this could.

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Speaker 3: Be an indictment upon who Chewba Hubbard is as a

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Speaker 3: player and what his role could be in twenty twenty

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Speaker 3: five with Ricodoudle eating into the early down rolls, maybe

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Speaker 3: the red zone, and Trevor Etn eating into the pass

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Speaker 3: game utility. And if all that comes to fruition, Hubbard

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Speaker 3: maybe is just a low end RB two or high

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Speaker 3: end RB three, if this backfield doesn't just get shifted

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Speaker 3: up or split up into two different pieces, but maybe three.

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Speaker 1: If you believe Etn is gonna take a bite out

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Speaker 1: of this, I suppose I could see where you're going

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Speaker 1: and that the positive is he's already been drafted as

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Speaker 1: kind of a low RB two. And just a couple

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Speaker 1: things to just add in here, just in my argument

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Speaker 1: of him that weeks one through nine off, I guess

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Speaker 1: you were saying more of weeks one through three, but

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Speaker 1: weeks one through nine because I gave you my side

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Speaker 1: of ten through sixteen. Guess what weeks one through nine

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Speaker 1: he was a better running back. He was a seventh

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Speaker 1: scoring running back in half PPR during that time, and

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Speaker 1: on the receiving side, he had four catches or more

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Speaker 1: in five of the first six weeks, and he had

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Speaker 1: four catches in three straight games to end out the year,

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Speaker 1: so to get in the ball in his hands in

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Speaker 1: multiple spots. They did bring in some others and that

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Speaker 1: leads us to I think an interesting discussion how to

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Speaker 1: bust proof your teams, because we are solely talking on

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Speaker 1: how to avoid busts. In this you gave us two

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Speaker 1: players that you think are a bus You actually said

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Speaker 1: the first scenario here, Deebro is going to give three

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Speaker 1: tips to bust proof your team. And I'm going to

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Speaker 1: just set you up into the first one because I

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Speaker 1: just want you to rattle all three off. Debro. You said,

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Speaker 1: don't expect last year's stats to repeat or results to

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Speaker 1: repeat when you were talking about Chewba Hubbard, and that

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Speaker 1: is your number one in the first of the top

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Speaker 1: three on how to bust proof your team.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and this comes down to we see so many

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Speaker 3: people whether this is the RB one overall and ranks,

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Speaker 3: the wide receiver one, or how you want to look

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Speaker 3: at all this that people expect and they could say

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Speaker 3: that they don't, but the rankings and the narratives and

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Speaker 3: the consensus, the generalized consensus out there says otherwise, where

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Speaker 3: they people are expecting last year's results to repeat to

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Speaker 3: a certain extent, you're gonna find plus EV and better

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Speaker 3: EV and you're gonna avoid some of these busts. If

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Speaker 3: you already understand that, Yes, we say this every year

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Speaker 3: Welsh We get to Week seven and we say, wow,

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Speaker 3: things are so wildly different than what we thought coming

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Speaker 3: into the year. But that's not how we approach drafts.

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Speaker 3: That's not how a lot of people approach rankings. They say, oh, well,

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Speaker 3: I've seen that happen, That's what's gonna happen in the

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Speaker 3: next season.

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Speaker 2: Except it doesn't. So I'm not telling people.

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Speaker 3: To do that at every juncture of their draft, but

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Speaker 3: the points of the draft where you're expecting, okay, well,

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Speaker 3: the RB one overall last year probably isn't going to

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Speaker 3: be the r BE one overall of this year, or

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Speaker 3: the RB or the wide receiver one overall, or some

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Speaker 3: of these players that were stretch run heroes that don't

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Speaker 3: reprise those roles in the next season. So do not

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Speaker 3: expect last year's results to repeat. Also, you should not

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Speaker 3: be following blindly whatever site you're drafting on. You don't

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Speaker 3: need to be following these rankings and EIGHTP sets blindly.

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Speaker 3: You need to lean into content creators that you trust,

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Speaker 3: your own process and the homework that you're doing, whether

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Speaker 3: that's on Fantasy pros, using the draft Wizard, using cheat sheets,

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Speaker 3: following sharp people and then creating content and stuff, or

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Speaker 3: your own process. You need to follow that over following

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Speaker 3: these blind rankings and ADP sets that are on these sites,

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Speaker 3: which are just just a collection of the aggregate. And

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Speaker 3: that's following me in my third tip here, follow your

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Speaker 3: own process, follow people you trust, and fade the echo chamber.

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Speaker 3: So many people get in so much trouble with say.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but.

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Speaker 3: That email right after the draft's gonna come out and

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna get laughed out of the room. I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: get a D plus and it's not gonna be good.

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Speaker 3: And follow your own process and follow voices and content

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Speaker 3: creators you trust.

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Speaker 2: Don't follow all this stuff blandly.

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Speaker 1: And if you're looking for the biggest bus, not just

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Speaker 1: in Debros, but the rest. If you're looking for the

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Speaker 1: biggest targets, you're looking for the best strategy. You're looking

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Speaker 1: for all the ranks to put into your process, not

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Speaker 1: just blindly following. We've got so much for you to

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Speaker 1: help create and better your process with the Fantasy Pros Draftkit.

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Speaker 1: Go and check it out today Fantasypros dot Com slash Kit.

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Speaker 1: You can check out our premium content on there as

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Speaker 1: well for free by claiming your three day trial of

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros Premium at Fantasypros dot Com slash Premium and heck,

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Speaker 1: if you guys want, you could save that free trial

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Speaker 1: right up until your draft day. If you've only got

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Speaker 1: one draft, you can use it. Check out the premium articles,

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Speaker 1: the premium content. But don't be afraid to go over

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Speaker 1: there Fantasypros dot Com slash because there's lots of great

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Speaker 1: stuff in there. Go and check it out today. This

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Speaker 1: leads us to the final in the Bust Tips d Bros.

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Speaker 1: Ultimate Bust of twenty twenty five, and I hate it.

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Speaker 1: I hate it, so say it. Get out of here

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Speaker 1: with this bust.

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Speaker 3: Exavi your worthy, man, it's got to be Exavier worthy.

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Speaker 3: He is going as a top twenty four wide receiver

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Speaker 3: in a lot of different spots right on EASYR Wide

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Speaker 3: Receiver twenty or ADP Wide Receiver twenty six. I can't

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Speaker 3: draft him at that spot. I know Rashi Rice is

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Speaker 3: going to miss a little bit of time to suspension,

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Speaker 3: and that's still up in the air, but Worthy, I

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Speaker 3: think he's going to as long as Rice is on

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Speaker 3: the field. Whenever he's out there, I think he's going

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Speaker 3: to reprise the same role that he had last year,

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Speaker 3: and that's as a field stretcher in this offense, because

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Speaker 3: the only time we saw him really hit the ground

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Speaker 3: running is back into the season when he was in

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Speaker 3: the Rashive Rice role. Weeks one through twelve, this dude

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Speaker 3: was the wide receiver fifty one in Fantasy points per game.

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Speaker 3: He only drew a thirteen point nine percent target share

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Speaker 3: in a twelve point one eight odd and his design

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Speaker 3: target rate was at thirteen point two percent. He wasn't

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Speaker 3: getting open Welsh amongst one hundred and twenty four qualifying

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Speaker 3: wide receivers in that stretch. So that's twelve weeks of

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Speaker 3: the season, dude. Twelve weeks, one hundred and twenty four

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Speaker 3: wide receivers. He was ninety six in separation and one

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Speaker 3: hundred and eleventh in route win rate per Fantasy points data.

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Speaker 3: Those numbers are terrible, dude, and it's not until they

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Speaker 3: put him in that high end design target role that

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Speaker 3: he really kind of caught his caught fire towards the

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Speaker 3: end of the year, and that's the Rashi Rice role.

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Speaker 2: So when Rice is.

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Speaker 3: Back, Worthy is not playing this role. Worthy can play

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Speaker 3: the Rice role. Rice cannot play the Worthy role, and

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Speaker 3: Worthy is gonna be used to stretch the field. So

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Speaker 3: in weeks thirteen through seventeen, yeah, sure, he was the

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Speaker 3: wide receiver twenty one and fantasy points per game. His

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Speaker 3: aight ide dropped to six point three and his design

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Speaker 3: target rate went up to twenty five point six. I

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Speaker 3: can't draft a guy where I'm like, okay, if he's

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Speaker 3: in that role, but Rice is coming back, Uh, well,

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Speaker 3: he's gonna be good in that role, Okay, But when

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Speaker 3: Rice comes back, he's back into what field stretching role

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Speaker 3: and Mahomes has been quietly one of the worst deep

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Speaker 3: ball passers in the NFL over the last two years.

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Speaker 3: I just can't pay that type of price. If you

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Speaker 3: were telling me Xacer Worthy was going as a mid

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Speaker 3: wide receiver three, low end wide receiver three and stuff. Sure,

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Speaker 3: I'm willing to dive in on that, but too many

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Speaker 3: people are drafting him as a top twenty four wide

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Speaker 3: receiver right now or a top thirty wide receiver, and

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Speaker 3: because of the archetype of wide receiver he is, because

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Speaker 3: he hasn't been getting open and because of even if

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Speaker 3: you look at the size of Worthy, unless they're feeding

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Speaker 3: him gadget touches, what is he a guy you're gonna

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Speaker 3: expect to spike ten to twelve touchdowns and that save

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Speaker 3: his fantasy season?

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Speaker 2: Probably not.

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Speaker 3: He's a guy that's gonna max out and that seeks

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Speaker 3: to seven or eight range even in the best of circumstances,

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Speaker 3: because he doesn't have the size to be a red

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Speaker 3: zone guy. So no, I cannot draft Xavier Worthy where

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Speaker 3: he's going because Rashid Rice is the number one, the

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Speaker 3: clear number one in this offense and it's not Worthy.

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Speaker 1: But when will he be there? Based on the Jordan

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Speaker 1: Adison suspension, I do not hold out hopes that Rashide

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Speaker 1: Rice is going to get a nice little small suspension,

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Speaker 1: but we'll have to see. That could play a big

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Speaker 1: role in it. Xavier Worthy Debro's biggest bus. What do

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Speaker 1: you guys think? Do you think that's the biggest bus

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Speaker 1: of the season. Drop a comment below and drop your

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Speaker 1: biggest bus plus if you've got any great tips for

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Speaker 1: people how to avoid bus on your team. These guys

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Speaker 1: that are going to ruin it. Again, not saying that

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Speaker 1: there are players that you're completely avoiding, but based on

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Speaker 1: value in the players that you're passing on a real

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Speaker 1: high opportunity to ruin your team. You guys, drop comments

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Speaker 1: below on what you think for Debro. I'm Chris Welsh.

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Speaker 1: Thank you guys for hanging out with us. Good luck

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Speaker 1: avoiding all of those busts in your drafts this coming season.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.

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