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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

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Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 2: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: Well, Stock's climbing after the latest economic data show the

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Speaker 3: economy is holding up while still leaving the door open

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Speaker 3: for the Fed to cut rates a few times this year.

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Speaker 3: Bonds a little change though on this data. Let's get

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Speaker 3: to the story with Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US

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Speaker 3: Interest rates strategists. He joins us from Princeton, New Jersey.

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Speaker 3: This PCE data that we got Ira largely in line

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Speaker 3: with expectations. Does it change any of the moves from

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Speaker 3: the Federal Reserve come September and later this year?

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Speaker 4: Well, I think it doesn't take fifty basis points off

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Speaker 4: the table.

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Speaker 5: But I think just given the.

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Speaker 4: You know, whole mosaic of the data that this report

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Speaker 4: gives us between income spending as well as the you know,

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Speaker 4: two and a half is percent core PC and headline

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Speaker 4: PC numbers on a year on year basis that it

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Speaker 4: makes it. I think a fifty basis point cut as

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Speaker 4: an initial cut a little bit less likely, particularly when

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Speaker 4: you look at some of the spending data, because the

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Speaker 4: spending data is suggesting that the consumer is still willing

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Speaker 4: to spend. And you look at some of the sectors

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Speaker 4: and I was just actually taking a look at services

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Speaker 4: and durable goods and the like, and durable goods sales

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Speaker 4: really plummeted last year, but those have come back and

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Speaker 4: are still growing in around a four percent year on

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Speaker 4: year growth rate. So you know, the consumer is still

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Speaker 4: holding up the economy right now. And unless that changes meaningfully,

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Speaker 4: I suspect that the Federal Reserve will will move cautiously,

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Speaker 4: but I do expect that they'll that they'll cut interest rates,

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Speaker 4: but maybe not one hundred basis points this year, maybe

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Speaker 4: seventy five, which again isn't a massive change. But I

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Speaker 4: think that this data, you know, points to a, you know,

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Speaker 4: the soft landing being more probable than it was before

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Speaker 4: we saw it.

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Speaker 6: All right, I'm aways curious about in terms of Fed policy,

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Speaker 6: twenty five basis points versus fifty Is it better to

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Speaker 6: kind of spoon feed slowly when you're shifting in cycle.

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Speaker 6: When monetary cycle is shifting, is it better for markets, investors,

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Speaker 6: and the economy or is it better to kind of

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Speaker 6: give it a jolt like fifty.

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Speaker 4: Well, typically, you know, the Federal Reserve is cutting interest

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Speaker 4: rates during some kind of crisis or massive downturn, or

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Speaker 4: when there's some kind of exogynous shock that occurs to

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Speaker 4: that that might make the economy really slip into recession

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Speaker 4: very quickly. That is not this situation, right, So this

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Speaker 4: is different than most other cycles that we've seen over

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Speaker 4: the past forty years. And because of that, I think

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Speaker 4: there's some people who say, oh, well, they'll cut fifty

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Speaker 4: because they're behind the curve when you look at some data.

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Speaker 4: But then you look at the data that we saw

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Speaker 4: today from July, right, which is a first read on

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Speaker 4: how third quarter GDP and the likeer shaping up, and

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Speaker 4: it was decent. That not spectacular or anything, certainly not

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Speaker 4: like it was a year or eighteen months ago, but

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Speaker 4: definitely definitely a decent number. So so Carol, to your point,

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Speaker 4: I think, you know, them going slow to start, and

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Speaker 4: then if the economy does slow down more significantly, they

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Speaker 4: can cut more.

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Speaker 5: Later.

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Speaker 4: I think that they'll be more cautious than not. And

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Speaker 4: that's one of the ways that I differ from some

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Speaker 4: of our colleagues over at Bloomberg Economics.

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Speaker 5: But nonetheless, like the Federal Reserve is an easing mode.

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Speaker 4: They're going to be easing inflation at two and a

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Speaker 4: half percent. Core inflation at two and a half percent

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Speaker 4: is close enough to their target that I think that

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Speaker 4: they're comfortable, you know, to start easing monetary policy now.

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Speaker 3: Well, just in the last eleven minutes, we got consumer

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Speaker 3: sentiment data. It showed that it improved in August for

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Speaker 3: the first time in five months. Slower inflation and prospects

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Speaker 3: for the Fed interest rate cuts helped lift expectations about

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Speaker 3: personal finances. IRA consumers expect prices are going to climb

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Speaker 3: at an annual rate of two point eight percent over

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Speaker 3: the next year, down from two point nine percent expected

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Speaker 3: last month and the lowest since the end of twenty twenty.

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Speaker 3: The data out Friday showed again good news for the Fed.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so certainly, you know, the Federal Reserve looks at

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Speaker 4: expectations for inflation for as part of the as part

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Speaker 4: of its analysis of what it needs to do with

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Speaker 4: monetary policy, and certainly consumer expectations, like the Michigan Inflation Expectations.

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Speaker 5: Component is one of those, along with along with the market.

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Speaker 4: Now, yeah, you know when you look at the Tips

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Speaker 4: market and we put out we put out a note

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Speaker 4: about this last week, looking at the Tips market and

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Speaker 4: what it's been pricing, and you know, it's pricing basically

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Speaker 4: two percent inflation for the next decade.

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Speaker 5: Now, tips haven't been.

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Speaker 4: The greatest of indicators of and of where inflation is

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Speaker 4: going to go.

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Speaker 5: And in fact, if you.

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Speaker 4: Had actually bought tips and tips break even so the

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Speaker 4: inflation rate that the market expects back in twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 4: when inflation started to go up, you would have made

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Speaker 4: a killing because the inflation was meaningfully higher than what

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Speaker 4: the market was pricing. But nonetheless, like at this point,

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Speaker 4: you know, most inflation indicators forward inflation indicators are moderating somewhat.

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Speaker 4: And because of that, I think it's another reason why

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Speaker 4: the FED isn't concerned about a reacceleration of inflation at

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Speaker 4: this point.

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Speaker 6: All right, so check check. The Fed's got to fee

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Speaker 6: pretty good about where inflation is. Dare I say goldilocks?

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Speaker 6: But the one thing I am concerned about, and I

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Speaker 6: know you watch it as well is the jobs market,

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Speaker 6: and we get another read, of course the monthly report

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Speaker 6: just about a week or so from now, or a

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Speaker 6: week from now, I should say. Having said that, Tim

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Speaker 6: and I have conversations with people saying that it's take

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Speaker 6: that they're finding it's harder for people to find jobs,

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Speaker 6: or they're getting a lot more job applications. Just twenty

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Speaker 6: thirty seconds. Can Should we be a little worried about

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Speaker 6: the job market real quickly?

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Speaker 5: Yeah? I think so, And certainly the Fed has pivoted

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Speaker 5: that way.

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Speaker 4: Jay Powell was absolutely unequivocal about that last week.

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Speaker 5: You know, a year ago we were only worried about inflation.

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Speaker 4: Now the dual mandate is back in play, so any

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Speaker 4: weakness in the job market will make the Fed Reserve

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Speaker 4: worried that the economy slipping in therefore will cut interest rates.

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Speaker 3: All right, Ira, thank you so much. Bloomberg Intelligence, Chief

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Speaker 3: US interest rates strategist Ira Jersey joining us from Princeton,

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Speaker 3: New Jersey.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Affle Card playing then

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Speaker 2: broud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

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Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts or watch US live on YouTube.

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Speaker 6: All right, back to Intel we go. We mentioned it,

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Speaker 6: we talked about it with Carmen Rynegy. What's going on

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Speaker 6: with the stock. It's up more than seven percent in

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Speaker 6: today's session. It's a top gainer in the S and

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Speaker 6: P and the Nasdaq one hundred. So let's talk about

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Speaker 6: the news that really we thought it was gonna be

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Speaker 6: a sleepy Friday, not even close. So with us is

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Speaker 6: Ryan Gouldi's Bloomberg deal's reporter on Intel weighing a bunch

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Speaker 6: of options, so Bloomberg exclusive. Kudos to you guys. So

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Speaker 6: talk a little bit more about what they're considering and

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Speaker 6: what this means. Is this good thing, bad thing, or

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Speaker 6: we still don't.

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Speaker 7: Know, Carol, I think it's the biggest story in tech

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Speaker 7: right now. I think if you look across the board

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Speaker 7: and you've seen the reaction today with the stock, I

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Speaker 7: think Intel's obviously our semiconductors in general arep I think

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Speaker 7: Broadcom was almost up four percent. This is a name

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Speaker 7: that is being closely watched. There was there's been some commentary,

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Speaker 7: you know, and as we've been speaking to sources around

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Speaker 7: this idea that Intel is too big to fail, you know,

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Speaker 7: getting back to you know, what happened in our way.

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Speaker 7: This is kind of like this is almost getting to

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Speaker 7: that territory. This is a big name for sort of

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Speaker 7: national security almost but the United States, Intel itself accounts

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Speaker 7: for forty one percent of US three hundred milimeter away

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Speaker 7: for production. So you know, this is a name that

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Speaker 7: you know, really is meaning we.

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Speaker 6: Need Intel to be a healthy company, and we need

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Speaker 6: a domestic, massive semi company.

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Speaker 7: Indeed, indeed, and I think that is that's what's at

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Speaker 7: the top of all of this. And so the pressure

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Speaker 7: on on Gelsinger is enormous.

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Speaker 3: But it's a lot less massive than it's been in

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Speaker 3: the past at this point, especially after this year's stock decline.

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Speaker 3: So Ryan, let's talk a little bit about what the

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Speaker 3: options are from and again, the bank is working with

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Speaker 3: the companies, working with banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.

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Speaker 3: What are the options that these banks are laying out

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Speaker 3: for the company.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, And I think just at the top, I think

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Speaker 7: it's it's it's good for us to note that Goldman

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Speaker 7: and Morgan Stanley have been Intel's advisors for a long time.

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Speaker 7: They took the company, you know, they've been around. They've

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Speaker 7: been around the block, they know, they know a lot.

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Speaker 6: Long relationship know the company.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, exactly, And I think some of the things that

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Speaker 7: they're talking about with Gelsinger on the board would include

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Speaker 7: things such as a split of Foundry and the product

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Speaker 7: design unit.

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Speaker 3: That's a hue that would be meaning separate companies.

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Speaker 7: A separation. Yeah, so going run it could be it

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Speaker 7: could end up being a spin off.

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Speaker 6: Why is that a good idea?

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Speaker 7: I think because I think you know, Intel has found

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Speaker 7: the scene pressure in recent weeks and months around this

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Speaker 7: idea that the turnaround, the costs required for the turnaround

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Speaker 7: in and around manufacturing itself of the actual chips is costly.

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Speaker 7: One fab that they're taking money four tickets with twenty

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Speaker 7: billion dollars to build.

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Speaker 3: I gotta tell you, I'm just you know, you say

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Speaker 3: too big to fail in the context of companies that

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Speaker 3: we've talked about recently. Boeing is a company that has

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Speaker 3: been talked about as being too big to fail. Instead

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Speaker 3: of spinning off, they're consolidating bring back Spirit Aerosystems, a

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Speaker 3: company they spun off twenty something years ago. It just

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Speaker 3: seems like would these moves fundamentally change the fate of

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Speaker 3: Intel or are they Is it financial engineering?

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Speaker 7: I think it would because you'd essentially be looking at

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Speaker 7: with a split of foundry, you'd essentially be looking at

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Speaker 7: the company that's only focused on the product design, which

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Speaker 7: i e. The chips that it might you might find

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Speaker 7: an Adel computer or in Lenovo computer.

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Speaker 6: So they wanted to be more like a TSMC right

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Speaker 6: making chips.

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Speaker 7: That was key to Gelsinger's view is that they wanted

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Speaker 7: to rival TSMC. That so far, investors on convinced Intel

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Speaker 7: is still the only customer of Intel's boundary business right,

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Speaker 7: which you know, the challenge so far has been how

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Speaker 7: can we get chips out the door at at fast

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Speaker 7: enough rate? But other customers that aren't us.

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Speaker 6: So if they do that, what's left in terms of

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Speaker 6: Intel their secret sauce or their chips that they are making.

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Speaker 6: You know, it's interesting in a week where we focus

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Speaker 6: so much on Nvidia, is that enough of a business?

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Speaker 6: Is that a better business? I understand it'll be more

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Speaker 6: of a pure play all the costs of building up

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Speaker 6: foundry thirty seconds here? Is that enough of a bit?

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Speaker 7: It is because you'd essentially be looking at something that

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Speaker 7: you know, where they've lost ground to the likes of

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Speaker 7: AMD and around GPUs and CPUs. They could focus more

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Speaker 7: time on the data cent to serve a type area

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Speaker 7: well investors.

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Speaker 6: That's huge investors are buying in today. Intel shares are

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Speaker 6: up about seven percent as we speak, but let's not

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Speaker 6: talk about where they are here today, because they're down

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Speaker 6: a lot. Ryan Gould, thank you so much. Deal's reporter.

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Speaker 6: Bloomberg News a Bloomberg exclusive. Read all the deals. Just

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Speaker 6: head to Bloomberg dot com or check it out on

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Speaker 6: the Bloomberg terminal.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

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Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

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Speaker 2: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just

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Speaker 2: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 6: All right, we'll talk a little bit more about what's

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Speaker 6: going on in the markets. Fed expectations, because it does

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Speaker 6: feel like the inflation report, the preferred inflation gauge of

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Speaker 6: the US Central Bank, you know, coming in we're still

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Speaker 6: seeing consumers spending, inflation cooling. It does feel like Jay

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Speaker 6: Pal's got to feel pretty good going into this Labor Day, weekend.

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Speaker 3: Somebody who watches this stuff so closely, the macro and

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Speaker 3: the micro's Ben Emmons, founder and chief investment officer at

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Speaker 3: fed Watch Advisors. He joins us from Washington, DC. Ben,

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Speaker 3: I think you write more than some journalists. I know,

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Speaker 3: how much of your day do you spend writing?

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Speaker 8: I think probably a good eighty percent of my day

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Speaker 8: on that. It's just like I'm addicted writer. I think,

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Speaker 8: you know, I listened to you and Carol and John

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Speaker 8: and other people, and that actually is always a really

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Speaker 8: good inspiration for writing. Obviously checking numbers and markets and yeah,

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Speaker 8: it's just enjoyed doing it. So it's always focused on analysis, right,

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Speaker 8: It's always focused on trying to come up with another

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Speaker 8: angle to this story like what we're looking at now

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Speaker 8: at PCEE, and try to drill in and trying to

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Speaker 8: come up with with practical ideas about it and then

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Speaker 8: obviously extrapolating that to what I do now. I've decided

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Speaker 8: to do the set of mown firm and really focus

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Speaker 8: on FET watching and making that more like an investment

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Speaker 8: firm around FET watching and apply that writing. And as

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Speaker 8: the last point there, I want to say this, you know,

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Speaker 8: as you know, I used to work for Bill gross

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Speaker 8: A Binco for for many years. He taught me. Actually

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Speaker 8: this he did that himself through This is one of

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Speaker 8: the most prolific writers too. Tell you write out your thoughts.

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Speaker 8: Is that gives you really the sort of your say,

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Speaker 8: compass to navigate these markets.

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Speaker 6: I do think that there's something really healthy and also,

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Speaker 6: like we joke about putting your phone down or you know,

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Speaker 6: sitting and writing something and just walking away from the

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Speaker 6: day to day barrage or minute by minute barrage of

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Speaker 6: headlines and statistics to try and just kind of think

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Speaker 6: about where we are in a sane way.

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Speaker 3: Well, Ben, there's a synthesis that happens when you sit

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Speaker 3: down to write about something. I learned this in high school.

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Speaker 3: I think one of my teachers said, you don't really

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Speaker 3: know something unless you can explain it or you can

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Speaker 3: write about it. Ben, And that's what that's what you

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Speaker 3: do with your notes, and that's certainly why I appreciate

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Speaker 3: getting them pretty much every day. Just to give you

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Speaker 3: an idea of the types of notes that that Ben's written. Recently,

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Speaker 3: he's written about the data center surge. He's written about

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Speaker 3: Nvidia's economic impact and I know he's listening to our

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Speaker 3: show because he forwarded me the Nvidia Economic impact note

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Speaker 3: after we were talking about in Nvidia's economic impact on

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Speaker 3: our program a couple of days ago, the uncertainty when

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Speaker 3: it comes to IPO's reflation when it comes to shipping,

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Speaker 3: and of course everything happening last week at Jackson Hole.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, exactly. So let's start with Nvidia because it has

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Speaker 6: been We even kick off our weekend show saying, listen, folks,

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Speaker 6: there was one story pretty much this week, and that

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Speaker 6: was Nvidia's earnings. How do you extrapolate that out not

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Speaker 6: only to what it means for Nvidia specifically, but the

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Speaker 6: AI race, the AAI build out, and what it maybe

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Speaker 6: says more broadly about CAPEX spending and I don't know,

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Speaker 6: and what it means for financial markets when that big,

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Speaker 6: you know, tech trade means so much.

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Speaker 5: That's right, Carol.

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Speaker 8: I think that you know, the Wall Street Journal and

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Speaker 8: a nice graph and that's showing all his TEX spending

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Speaker 8: projection of it. And it's all based on the video, Lily,

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Speaker 8: on expectations on how the video will perform from here,

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Speaker 8: because they have the monopoly on those GPUs and chips

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Speaker 8: and Blackwell and all the things that they that they create,

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Speaker 8: and yet as they create those those chips, as we

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Speaker 8: now know, there's on the on the ground all these

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Speaker 8: data centers being set up across the country. And that

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Speaker 8: was one of the graphs I put in the note

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Speaker 8: of those bubbles out there, and that's not just a

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Speaker 8: data center that I guess I haven't. I want to

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Speaker 8: visit one of those, actually because it's kind of interesting,

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Speaker 8: new new concept. But there's a lot of people that

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Speaker 8: start working there. There's a lot of surfaces that happen

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Speaker 8: around these data centers. So the VIDIA has become a

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Speaker 8: major macroeconomic force in my view, where you could talk

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Speaker 8: about the stock and the multiple and earnings projections and

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Speaker 8: all those things that and everybody in the bronment had

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Speaker 8: and was very excited about that. But me as a

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Speaker 8: as an economist fabwatch, I think of it, this is

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Speaker 8: a company that's become very powerful for the economy that

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Speaker 8: if its performance were to change and the expectations about

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Speaker 8: is growth changes, that it could have an impact on

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Speaker 8: the economy in itself. It's like Boeing with its impact

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Speaker 8: on the supply chain, and people have calculated that it's

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Speaker 8: worked up to half a percent of GDP. I think

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Speaker 8: in the video it could be actually more more impactful level.

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Speaker 6: I think about that those data centers that are the

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Speaker 6: big build out right, and do we all of a sudden,

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Speaker 6: maybe in a year or two, are they not actually operating?

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Speaker 6: Are they a little quiet because maybe the reality doesn't

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Speaker 6: live up to the expectation. So so that's certainly top

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Speaker 6: of mind. The other thing is we gotta talk, we

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Speaker 6: gotta talk politics.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I don't. I don't see a recent

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Speaker 3: note Ben that you have about this. You had something

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Speaker 3: about Harris a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: It's coming.

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Speaker 3: Okay, Well here's what here's what I want to let's

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Speaker 3: get a little preview from you on this because Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: News Morning Console poll came out late yesterday shows that

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Speaker 3: uh Kamala Harris has sustained the burst of momentum she

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Speaker 3: brought to the presidential contest. She's leading or tied with

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump in each of the seven swing states most

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Speaker 3: likely to decide the race. How do you think about

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Speaker 3: economic policies under a president Harris versus the President Trump.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, the first thing you think of is that, Okay,

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Speaker 8: she just extends what we've been doing so far with Biden.

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Speaker 8: And yes, the Infrastructure Act in the Chips Act will

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Speaker 8: not be disrupted, right, which is I think back to

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Speaker 8: the Navideo story an important aspect because they have been

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Speaker 8: slow down in some of these chips activities recently, meaning

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Speaker 8: there's a lot of semiconductor investment that's happening in the States,

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Speaker 8: but some of these projects have been put off. The

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Speaker 8: Financial Times report on that, so that's key. I think

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Speaker 8: we go from an economic policy point of view.

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Speaker 5: Then of course everybody looks at the Federal Reserve.

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Speaker 8: And it's independence. You will not rail against that. I

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Speaker 8: think for the broad markets that probably matters not as much.

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Speaker 8: It's more about then further down, about how are you

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Speaker 8: going to go after people with higher taxes?

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Speaker 9: Right?

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Speaker 8: Are you really going to increase capital gains taxes and

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Speaker 8: wealth taxes and that sort of discussion. And I think

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Speaker 8: lastly it's really about her own agenda in terms of

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Speaker 8: like how she's shaping it. We're getting some contours of it.

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Speaker 8: She does seem to be in favor of fracking, for example,

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Speaker 8: which matters to energy supply, and you know she is

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Speaker 8: going to address the border, which could you know, affect

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Speaker 8: immigration flows, right, So I think, if you think all

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Speaker 8: those things, her agenda is extension of Buyden, but it

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Speaker 8: is her own agenda. But the most important thing for

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Speaker 8: me at least is I think that if there's no

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Speaker 8: disruption in what the Infrastructure Act and chips actually doing

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Speaker 8: to the economy, that will matter a lot, because that's

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Speaker 8: really been a big drive I think for economic performances

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Speaker 8: of the past year.

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Speaker 6: Listen, I think about tim the conversation we had on

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Speaker 6: Bloomberg Business Week with the Windham Hotels CEO, who said

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Speaker 6: some of their development, especially for extended stay hotels, was

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Speaker 6: specifically tied to some of the congressional spending plans that

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Speaker 6: have come from the Body administration. In other words, whether

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Speaker 6: it's infrastructure or so and so forth, that places are

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Speaker 6: building out, companies are building out throughout the nation.

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Speaker 3: Texas joined us from Frisco Texas. Yeah, you're talking about

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Speaker 3: Geff Bilotti, who was on with us last week or

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Speaker 3: the week before, right, So what.

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Speaker 6: You say in terms of these plans, whether it's data centers, AI,

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Speaker 6: whether it's climate change, renewable energy, these spending plans are

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Speaker 6: certainly key in terms of economic growth and keeping kind

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Speaker 6: of the engine going. Having said that What is the

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Speaker 6: one political policy, whether it's Donald Trump or Kamala Harris

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Speaker 6: in the White House come November that you think is

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Speaker 6: going to be very important to keeping the economy in

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Speaker 6: a good place here in the US And just have

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Speaker 6: about forty seconds.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, it would be the debt seating negotiation and how

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Speaker 8: fiscal policy will be shaped into twenty twenty five, because

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Speaker 8: remember that that's the negotiation. Last year had a one

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Speaker 8: percent secretation attached as part of the negotiation. Will that secrestration,

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Speaker 8: which is a spending gap, will that be like what

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Speaker 8: we experienced a twenty eleven twelve, like a larger one,

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Speaker 8: because that if that's the case, that would have a

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Speaker 8: significant impact on the economy. Doesn't seem that that's the case, right,

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Speaker 8: that both want to spend more. But that is a

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Speaker 8: really important aspect I think of as we go to

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Speaker 8: the election. How will fiscal policy play the role in Nicoli?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, and as we know increasingly from Gas it is

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Speaker 6: an important one. We've talked about it in the past,

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Speaker 6: but it's a much more in terms of the deficit

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Speaker 6: and so on, it's going to be potentially more problematic.

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Speaker 6: Ben Emmons, thank you so much. Keep the notes coming.

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Speaker 6: Founder and chief investment officer at fed Watch Advisors. Joining

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Speaker 6: us from Washington, d C.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Card playing Android

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Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App, Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Kaylee lyons she's balanced a power co host. She's joining

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Speaker 3: us from Washington, DC. Kaylee, We've been dying to talk

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Speaker 3: to you since I saw these numbers come out late

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Speaker 3: yesterday after our show got off the air. Kamala Harris

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Speaker 3: sustaining the burst of momentum she brought to the presidential contest.

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Speaker 3: She's leading or tied with Republican Donald Trump and each

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Speaker 3: of the seven states most likely to decide the race.

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Speaker 3: New numbers from Bloomberg News and Morning Consul give us

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Speaker 3: the lay of the land and how this latest data

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Speaker 3: change the next few months.

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Speaker 10: Well, really, what the data illustrates Tim is that the

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Speaker 10: map for Kamala Harris, basically the number of states she

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Speaker 10: could potentially win in order to secure the two hundred

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Speaker 10: and seventy Electoral College votes she needs to clinch the presidency,

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Speaker 10: is significantly wider than it was for Joe Biden. And

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Speaker 10: these figures do confirm that, as you said, in six

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Speaker 10: of the seven, she is leading Donald Trump. In fact,

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Speaker 10: while a lot of these are within the margin of error,

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Speaker 10: in Wisconsin, one of the key battleground states part of

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Speaker 10: the so called Blue Wall, she's up by eight points.

438
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 10: And even in states where we almost were no longer

439
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:58,800
Speaker 10: even considering them swing states like North Carolina because Donald

440
00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:01,680
Speaker 10: Trump's lead has been so significant, she is now up

441
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,440
Speaker 10: on Trump in North Carolina by two points. She's also

442
00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:06,280
Speaker 10: up by two in Georgia. She's up by four in

443
00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 10: Pennsylvania and Nevada, and three in Michigan. So by and large,

444
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:13,879
Speaker 10: this does show that while this race remains incredibly close,

445
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 10: she does have potentially more chances. And that also means

446
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,119
Speaker 10: that it's more areas in which Donald Trump and the

447
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,960
Speaker 10: RNC are going to have to dedicate resources and spend

448
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:25,160
Speaker 10: time campaigning in areas that they once thought were givens

449
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:27,400
Speaker 10: for them much safer may not have had to invest

450
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 10: as much time and energy they now may be forced

451
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:30,439
Speaker 10: to do so.

452
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:33,399
Speaker 6: So help me out here, Kelly, as the days you know,

453
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 6: I feel like the days are numbered now as we

454
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,960
Speaker 6: count down to the November you know, actual voting, although

455
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 6: we know people can vote earlier. Having said that, polls,

456
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,200
Speaker 6: how much do they bounce around, especially as you get

457
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 6: closer and closer to election day.

458
00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 10: Yeah, a lot of strategists will tell you, Carol, that

459
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:52,359
Speaker 10: you shouldn't really look at any polls before Labor Day. However,

460
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:55,639
Speaker 10: the campaign is much more aggressive pre Labor Day this

461
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:57,400
Speaker 10: year than we have seen in the past, just given

462
00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,880
Speaker 10: the truncated nature of the Harris Walls ticket here. Of course,

463
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,920
Speaker 10: they only became the ticket just recently, and she's only

464
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,120
Speaker 10: been in this race as a presidential candidate, not vice

465
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:09,680
Speaker 10: presidential one, for about six weeks. So we will look

466
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,679
Speaker 10: to see how things morph, especially after the debate on

467
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,199
Speaker 10: September tenth. That is going to be potentially a critical

468
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,840
Speaker 10: pivotal moment in this campaign when we see Donald Trump

469
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 10: and Kamala Harris sharing the stage, and of course we'll

470
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 10: expect to hear more sit down interviews, frankly from the

471
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:24,720
Speaker 10: both of them. Kamala Harris, of course, did her first

472
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:27,639
Speaker 10: last night on CNN. Interestingly, she said on day one

473
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:29,680
Speaker 10: of her presidency in that interview, the thing she wants

474
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 10: to focus most on is the middle class, And in

475
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 10: this poll across the swing states, it actually finds that

476
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:37,639
Speaker 10: swing state voters give Harris the advantage on who they

477
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 10: trust more to help the middle class by a margin

478
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,520
Speaker 10: of seven points. It's interesting to see her performing better

479
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 10: on some of these economic questions than Joe Biden.

480
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,159
Speaker 6: Was do you feel like though I felt like it

481
00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:50,239
Speaker 6: was to some extent a repeat of some of the

482
00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:52,239
Speaker 6: main issues or main things she brought up in her

483
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 6: speech at the DNC. And I do feel like we

484
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 6: want more specificity, although I'm not quite sure we're going

485
00:22:57,600 --> 00:22:59,560
Speaker 6: to get it, because that can get you into problems.

486
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 6: More specific you get the devil is always in the details.

487
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,679
Speaker 10: Yeah, that's exactly right, Carol. Clearly US journalists and our

488
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:09,840
Speaker 10: audience here on Bloomberg Radio probably wants the policy specifics, right,

489
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 10: What are the exact payforce for some of the things

490
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:14,880
Speaker 10: she's suggesting, like twenty five thousand dollars down payment assistance

491
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 10: to first time home buyers. And we didn't really get

492
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 10: that last night. It kind of still was these broad

493
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 10: ideas of wanting to help the middle class and create

494
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:24,479
Speaker 10: an opportunity economy, and she didn't also shy away from

495
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:25,639
Speaker 10: a lot of the work that has been done in

496
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,400
Speaker 10: the Biden administration when it comes to the economy, things

497
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 10: like the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Bill, that

498
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,119
Speaker 10: kind of thing. But I think what was one of

499
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,359
Speaker 10: the more interesting points of the interview was she was

500
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:37,480
Speaker 10: questioned on some of the policy areas in which she

501
00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 10: is flip flopped, like a ban on fracking. She made

502
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 10: it very clear last night that she would not seek

503
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 10: such a ban as president, even though she said she

504
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 10: was in favor of it when she was running in

505
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:48,359
Speaker 10: the Democratic primary back in twenty nineteen. And her explanation

506
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,360
Speaker 10: for that, as well as some pivots and policy she's

507
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,400
Speaker 10: made when it comes to the border, is that her

508
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 10: values remain the same even if her policy ideas have

509
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 10: started to change, and the values argument will wait have

510
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 10: to wait and see if voters really by Republicans don't

511
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 10: really seem to be doing so.

512
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 3: I also wonder to what extent, you know, the flip flopping,

513
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 3: so called flip flopping matters and the context of her opponent,

514
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:11,879
Speaker 3: who has been on several sides of both sides of

515
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 3: several issues too, So I don't know to what extent

516
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 3: that matters to voters, especially given you know it was

517
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 3: five years ago.

518
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 6: In some points, I have to say one thing, right,

519
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 6: and I think everybody's been highlighting as new. I watched

520
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 6: it all and I did thought it was very earnest

521
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 6: and honest. When she said, yeah, I'd be up for

522
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,640
Speaker 6: having a Republican in my candidate, Like if you embrace diversity,

523
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:31,400
Speaker 6: which she does, she's.

524
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:32,879
Speaker 3: Going along when did it, Obama did it?

525
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it's smart or yeah, And I know

526
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:36,439
Speaker 6: we're not supposed to weigh in on it, but we

527
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 6: as an organization embrace diversity. So it's interesting to see

528
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:40,200
Speaker 6: her come out and.

529
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 10: Say that, yeah, for sure. And I would point out

530
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 10: at the at the DNC rather in Chicago, where I

531
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 10: was last week, even though it already feels like it

532
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 10: was months ago, there were a number of Republicans who

533
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,880
Speaker 10: spoke on the stage, Adam Kingsner, the former Congressman, Jeff Duncan,

534
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 10: who was the lieutenant governor of Georgia, who are of

535
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 10: course not pro Trump Republicans. They're in fact very anti Trump,

536
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 10: but they were they are at the Democratic National Convention.

537
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,199
Speaker 10: It'll be interesting to see if it's those types of

538
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:09,560
Speaker 10: individuals she's thinking about potentially's cabinet potential candidates for a

539
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 10: cabinet position. She of course didn't name names.

540
00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:13,639
Speaker 3: He Kaylee, we only have like ten seconds left for this.

541
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 3: But now that we got an interview with Harris on

542
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:18,359
Speaker 3: CNN and Tim Walls as well, are we going to

543
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:19,639
Speaker 3: start to see them do more media?

544
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 10: Yeah, we can expect that in probably doing them solo

545
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:25,439
Speaker 10: Tim rather than join interviews like we saw last night.

546
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:26,879
Speaker 6: Although I thought Tim, you know, it was like it

547
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 6: was interesting to see the two of them. I'm waiting

548
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,160
Speaker 6: for the sixty minutes interview like begem or the Bloomberg interview.

549
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 2: Come.

550
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 6: That's right y, all right, Kelly Lines, thank you so much,

551
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 6: Really appreciate Balance of Power co host joining us there

552
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 6: in DC.

553
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

554
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:47,440
Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

555
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business Act. You can also listen

556
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

557
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,879
Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

558
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 3: Dell shares her hire. The company did report better than

559
00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 3: expected revenue due to an increase in the sales of

560
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:06,479
Speaker 3: servers built for handling AI workloads. We got with us.

561
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 3: Wujin Hoo Bloomberg Intelligence senior tech analyst. He's here joining

562
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 3: us from Princeton, New Jersey. Woujin, give us the high

563
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 3: level and then we're gonna get to the various notes

564
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 3: that you wrote about Dell post earnings. Give us the

565
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 3: high level recap of what we heard from the last night.

566
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 9: Sure, so the big lead into the print was AI

567
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 9: server margins or ISG margins in general, and the beat

568
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:36,479
Speaker 9: there was eleven percent ISG margins. Last quarter they did

569
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 9: about eight percent. From a revenue basis, there was a

570
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 9: four percent revenue beat principally driven by AI servers. They

571
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:46,400
Speaker 9: did about three point one billion dollars in AI server revenues,

572
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 9: and I think the consensus was around two point four billion,

573
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:54,200
Speaker 9: so that's where the upside was. There were some, you know, negatives,

574
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 9: The PC market isn't going as well as one at hope,

575
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:00,200
Speaker 9: but it seems just that the street is overlooking got

576
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 9: a little bit. But all in all, AI is doing

577
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:03,880
Speaker 9: fairly well for Dell.

578
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 3: Uh Wujin, you mentioned PCs, AI PCs.

579
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:09,199
Speaker 2: You know this.

580
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 3: We spoke to John Rose earlier this week, and also

581
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 3: can I just say we got some great questions Mark

582
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:18,680
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Intelligence team ahead of that interview for John.

583
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 6: Oh yeah, yeah, and he's right in the thick of it.

584
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 3: He's right in the thick of it. One thing that

585
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 3: we asked about Wujin was about AI p cs. Is

586
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:32,199
Speaker 3: this something that there there's promise in that we're going

587
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,359
Speaker 3: to be using PCs that are equipped for AI or

588
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 3: is this stuff going to be on our phones? Like

589
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,360
Speaker 3: is Dell is del right in thinking that there's gonna

590
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 3: be a big market for a I p cs.

591
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:42,159
Speaker 9: Well, I don't think there's going to be a choice

592
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:47,200
Speaker 9: uh Tim primarily because uh Intel a m D they're

593
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:52,920
Speaker 9: all making uh AI PC chips and Dell HP, Lenovo,

594
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 9: whoever the PC o em is, they're going to put

595
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 9: put them in their PCs. Now, are they going to

596
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:02,440
Speaker 9: charge a premium? A slight right, but you know, like

597
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 9: it or not, we are going to have an AIPC.

598
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:06,639
Speaker 9: The question, the better question is are there going to

599
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 9: be apps that's going to help support the power of

600
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 9: the aipcs? And that that's that's the one hundred thousand

601
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 9: dollars question that I have right now. The big uptake

602
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 9: is probably going to be more on twenty twenty five

603
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:20,920
Speaker 9: as a driver a calendar twenty twenty five as a driver,

604
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 9: then on twenty twenty four.

605
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 6: That's right, Yeah, because I keep thinking, why do I

606
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 6: need an AIPC or will I need it for work?

607
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:34,720
Speaker 9: Oh? Carol, you will need it for work. Just imagine

608
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 9: the amount of time that you spend on your emails

609
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 9: just to catch up on emails. Imagine if you once

610
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 9: you open up your PC, it'll create a dossie of

611
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 9: all the things that you need to do, all the

612
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 9: questions that you need to have ahead of all of

613
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 9: your interviews, right all on a single page.

614
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 3: I guess on Saturday and Tuesday when I'm back.

615
00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 9: Let's let well, well, AIPC could probably expedite that. But

616
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 9: let's see what Microsoft does or any other Will it

617
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 9: help them focus?

618
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 7: What are you saying?

619
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:07,720
Speaker 3: Focused?

620
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 9: Productivity? It's all about productivity.

621
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 6: But so that's practical. Like Tim and I kind of

622
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 6: joke about it, but we do think bright would be

623
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 6: great to have something just write some of our introductions

624
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 6: or yeah, suggest some questions. When will it be reliable

625
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 6: though that we can trust it. I'm a little nut

626
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 6: about the source of things, and you know, making sure

627
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:34,440
Speaker 6: it's accurate, accurate, you are accurate with that.

628
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 9: Silly still still unclear where we're when we'll get there,

629
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 9: But given how powerful these large language models have become,

630
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 9: I do think that it'll be relatively soon, maybe maybe

631
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 9: mid twenty back half of twenty five and twenty six

632
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 9: will start seeing a proliferation of applications to help support

633
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 9: the IPC movement.

634
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 3: What's going to be the learning curve on that?

635
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 9: Wou jin should be fairly quick, right, It's it's almost

636
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 9: like a search. Let's just say, but once we learned uh,

637
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 9: the uh, the AAPC language prompts or the Copilot language prompts.

638
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 9: You know, I wouldn't be surprised if it if the

639
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 9: lyric curves fail easy.

640
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 3: You keep making making references to Microsoft. Is Microsoft going

641
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 3: to be the big beneficiary of developments with this AI hardware.

642
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 9: Well, they're already in there, right. If you think about

643
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 9: what Microsoft has done with Copilot and integrating with their

644
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 9: Office Suite, you know they've made a bit push. And

645
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 9: keep in mind they have a big investment in Open

646
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 9: AI to to help support that.

647
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 2: Right.

648
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 3: You know, sometimes I think about billion dollars.

649
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 6: Yeah, Dell's history and just it's pretty remarkable. I mean,

650
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 6: this tucks up almost fifty fifty five zero year to date.

651
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 6: It just feels like it has, I don't know, reinvented itself.

652
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 6: About question, it's remarkable.

653
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 3: We tryed to someone around my age, so you talk

654
00:30:57,360 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 3: to him about Dell and they're they're you know, they

655
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 3: associated with that ad campa that was out like when

656
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 3: I was in junior high. Like, dude, you're getting a

657
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 3: Dell right.

658
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 5: One of the competitor.

659
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 3: It could have had the fate of Gateway. Let's just

660
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 3: say that like Gateway and Dell were the big players

661
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 3: woo jen you know, twenty yep, thirty years ago.

662
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 9: And look, Mike, Michael Dell has done a fantastic job

663
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 9: in reshaping the company from a PC maker to a

664
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 9: general enterprise or corporate IT maker, and now it's reventing

665
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 9: itself as an AI server maker. Now keep in mind,

666
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 9: if you think about all the AI server makers in

667
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 9: the world, there's only super Micro was probably leading the pack.

668
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 9: But if you look at the AI server revenues that

669
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:39,719
Speaker 9: Dell has, it went for one point five billion dollars

670
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 9: last calendar year and it's on track to do about

671
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 9: ten billion dollars in AI server sales in this calendar year.

672
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 6: So super micros was do we have to be worried

673
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 6: about Dell at all because of that? And just got

674
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 6: about twenty five seconds.

675
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 9: Yeah, quick recap from a financial standpoint, No, the earnings

676
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 9: report kind of helps us out there. Super Micro's margins

677
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 9: were down on a sequential basis, but Dell's margins were up,

678
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 9: and that kind of swept beside those concerns.

679
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 6: All right, cool stuff, as always, listen, Thank you so much.

680
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 6: I always love checking in with you, Bujin, have a

681
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 6: great weekend, Bujin hoo. He's Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Technology Alice

682
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 6: joining us, Joining us excuse me from BI headquarters in Princeton,

683
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 6: New Jersey.

684
00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

685
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

686
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business Act. You can also listen

687
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

688
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 2: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

689
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 6: So let's talk a little bit about the labor market.

690
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, the US labor market is expected to grow by

691
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 3: four tenths of a percent a year through twenty thirty three.

692
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 3: It's less than one third of the pace in the

693
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 3: preceding decade. That's according to new projections from the Bureau

694
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 3: of Labor Statistics numbers. It translates to six point seven

695
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 3: million additional jobs over the decade, or about fifty five

696
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 3: thousand a month, the BLS set in a report published

697
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 3: on a Thursday. For more, Let's get to Robin Erics

698
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 3: and vice president of Human Capital. Over at the conference board.

699
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 3: Robin joins us from Chicago.

700
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:13,480
Speaker 2: How are you, Robin.

701
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 1: I'm terrific. Thank you, Tim, It's great to be here.

702
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 3: Well, thanks for joining us. Fifty five thousand jobs a month.

703
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 3: That is a far cry from the several hundred thousand

704
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 3: jobs a month that we've been accustomed to over the

705
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 3: last couple of years. Do you expect it to moderate

706
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 3: as much as the BLS thinks it will.

707
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 1: I do, because I think that the advances in AI

708
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 1: are going to change the jobs that we have. If

709
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 1: you think about the jobs in nineteen twenty, one hundred

710
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 1: years ago, thirty to forty percent of the US workforce

711
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 1: was in farming and thirty percent of the workforce was

712
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 1: in manufacturing. Today, only one to two percent are in

713
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 1: farming and eight to ten percent in manufacturing. Well eighty

714
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 1: percent are in services, so I think it's a good thing.

715
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 1: But I do think that organizations have to be thinking

716
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 1: about reskilling their employees.

717
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 6: So some jobs go away, and then is there an

718
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:11,799
Speaker 6: equal amount of new jobs that are created that reskilling

719
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 6: can help Those people who lose their jobs because of

720
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 6: AI can now fail. Are they going to be completely different?

721
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:19,280
Speaker 5: Okay?

722
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think the jobs will be different,

723
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:25,239
Speaker 1: and I think that we have to think about jobs differently,

724
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 1: just like if you were living one hundred years ago,

725
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 1: you'd have to think about jobs differently if you were

726
00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:32,839
Speaker 1: transported to twenty twenty four.

727
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:37,240
Speaker 6: So how ugly though or uncomfortable is that labor transition

728
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 6: going to be? So I understand you could do reskilling

729
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,719
Speaker 6: and get people to fill some of those newer jobs

730
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 6: that are now needed, but sometimes I don't know, like

731
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 6: how uncomfortable might that be, especially if you're with somebody

732
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:49,439
Speaker 6: who loses the job.

733
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 1: It is painful. And one of the things that we

734
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:56,359
Speaker 1: found is that only right now twenty one percent of

735
00:34:57,040 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 1: US organizations are thinking about reskilling jobs. So it takes

736
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 1: a while to do that, and so we definitely think

737
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:08,319
Speaker 1: that organizations should be doing more of that now. But

738
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:10,879
Speaker 1: part of The challenge right now is just making sure

739
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:15,239
Speaker 1: that everyone it has some AI literacy, and so that's

740
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 1: another area that we suggest organizations focus on.

741
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 3: Robin, does this mean we're going to work less in

742
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:24,520
Speaker 3: a few years, like a four day work week? Steve

743
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:25,239
Speaker 3: Cohen is.

744
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:28,840
Speaker 5: Investing in would you work any less? Wow?

745
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,799
Speaker 3: John Tucker is so rude. You know I'm working double

746
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:34,839
Speaker 3: duty today.

747
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 1: John, Exactly. That's that's that's tough.

748
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:38,919
Speaker 9: World's smallest violin comes out.

749
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:40,640
Speaker 2: Okay, all right, enough from you.

750
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:42,799
Speaker 3: Can we turn his mic off? Yeah, Robin, I'm more

751
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 3: interested in what Robin has to say about this, truly, though.

752
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 3: The reason I ask is because Steve Cohen and co

753
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 3: are investing in golf, because they argue that, you know,

754
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:54,720
Speaker 3: we are going to be working less and playing more golf.

755
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 6: No, it is his firm necessarily, No, no, no, no others,

756
00:35:58,640 --> 00:35:59,800
Speaker 6: thank you elsewhere?

757
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:00,279
Speaker 5: What do you?

758
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:00,920
Speaker 2: What say you?

759
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:01,280
Speaker 3: Robin?

760
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 1: So I'm smiling because you might think that we're working

761
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 1: less now than we were one hundred years ago, but

762
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:12,799
Speaker 1: because of technology, we can work twenty four seven. And

763
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:15,400
Speaker 1: so I do believe that there's a huge risk of

764
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:20,879
Speaker 1: burnout if organizations expect their employees to work all the time.

765
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 1: So at the same time that organizations are thinking about

766
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:28,760
Speaker 1: doing more with less fewer people. You know, we actually

767
00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:32,600
Speaker 1: found in our most recent survey that forty five percent

768
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 1: of organizations said that they had restricted hiring in the

769
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 1: last six months, they reduced travel, thirty percent said they'd

770
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:42,720
Speaker 1: done layoffs. So there's a lot of cost cutting measures

771
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 1: right now.

772
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:46,400
Speaker 6: You know, it's so funny. Sorry, I'm going to go

773
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:47,840
Speaker 6: to a little bit of an aside, but there was

774
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:50,240
Speaker 6: a great story on the Bloomberg this past week about

775
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:53,319
Speaker 6: this mining billionaire who banned work from home and he's

776
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:54,480
Speaker 6: targeting coffee runs.

777
00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:56,720
Speaker 3: Wait, wait, this is this is a really interesting story.

778
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 3: I know it makes sense.

779
00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:00,800
Speaker 6: Chris Allison, his mining company.

780
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 3: They've already been home, and this sounds great.

781
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:05,319
Speaker 6: Why tell me, what do you mean?

782
00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 5: Do you want me to.

783
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:07,320
Speaker 9: Work from home in a mine?

784
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:11,399
Speaker 3: No, not talking about the miners. It sounds great because

785
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:12,840
Speaker 3: I don't have the story in front of me. But

786
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 3: if I recall correctly, he wants to provide everything for

787
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 3: employees that they find off campus, including daycare.

788
00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:19,880
Speaker 6: Yes, daycare, he talks about that.

789
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 3: That sounds great.

790
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:22,359
Speaker 9: Bring the kids into the mind.

791
00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 6: No, Robin, We're so sorry. We're doing this, but it

792
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:30,320
Speaker 6: was a fascinating story. This guy, Chris Allison. Uh, they're

793
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:33,800
Speaker 6: in Perth Mineral Resources is company. They have a cafe,

794
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 6: a restaurant, a gym, a crush, a.

795
00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:40,760
Speaker 3: Reflection room, I'm told by Elizabeth Cedrin, a crushes, a daycare,

796
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:41,840
Speaker 3: Oh is it okay?

797
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 6: A wellness center, and he says the sixty seven year

798
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:47,440
Speaker 6: old mining veteran said that staff loved working in the

799
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:50,279
Speaker 6: building and its facilities kept them glued there. I have

800
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:52,439
Speaker 6: a no work from home policy. I wish everyone else

801
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 6: would get on board with that. The sooner the better.

802
00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:57,400
Speaker 6: What about balance? Whatever happened to that?

803
00:37:57,480 --> 00:37:57,520
Speaker 9: So?

804
00:37:57,560 --> 00:37:59,919
Speaker 1: What are the things you might not what is? Yeah,

805
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 1: one of the things you might not know about mining

806
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:06,399
Speaker 1: companies is that typically you don't have mining facility in

807
00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 1: a city, right, So these mining or facilities are oftentimes

808
00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 1: in company built towns, like literally, so there's a mine

809
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:19,439
Speaker 1: and they'll build the town around it. So really, where

810
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 1: could you go? But haven't we seen this before? Didn't

811
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:26,920
Speaker 1: you know a big technology company try to do this

812
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:29,279
Speaker 1: with a campus and try to keep workers there twenty

813
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:32,400
Speaker 1: four to seven, we've seen it before.

814
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:34,840
Speaker 6: He is offering that the daycare center, which ares. Just

815
00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 6: they're in US dollars thirteen dollars and fifty eight cents

816
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 6: a day compared to external costs of around this is

817
00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 6: Australian dollars one hundred and eighty dollars a day, so

818
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:45,440
Speaker 6: it's twenty Australian for them.

819
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 5: Let's just say.

820
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 3: Daycare in the US is thousands of dollars a month.

821
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 6: Labor market one of the things that fed watch is

822
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 6: so close to.

823
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 9: You, don't.

824
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:57,799
Speaker 1: I was just going to say, the more that an

825
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:01,920
Speaker 1: organization can offer to their employees, the more likely that

826
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:04,960
Speaker 1: they are to be able to attract and retain those employees.

827
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:08,880
Speaker 1: So I think providing on site daycare is fabulous. I

828
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:13,839
Speaker 1: think providing more well being programs that work. But I

829
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 1: also know that employees right now want flexibility. We did

830
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:21,319
Speaker 1: a survey shocking. I know we're a think tank, but

831
00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 1: sixty five percent of workers said that they beyond a

832
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 1: competitive salary, flexibility was most important to them. And what

833
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:35,359
Speaker 1: happened during COVID was that everyone had to adapt, right,

834
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:38,799
Speaker 1: and it was hard, remember those lockdowns and the quarantines.

835
00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:43,399
Speaker 1: But workers experience more flexibility in their personal lives and

836
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 1: they want that flexibility.

837
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:47,720
Speaker 6: I'm going to do a Twitter survey or x survey,

838
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:50,799
Speaker 6: flexibility or more pay I want to see what people say.

839
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:53,880
Speaker 6: Robin Ericsson. This was fun, vice president Human Capital for

840
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:56,640
Speaker 6: the Conference Board, joining us there in Chicago.

841
00:39:57,239 --> 00:40:01,799
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on apples, Spotify,

842
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:05,640
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843
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,719
Speaker 2: ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

844
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:12,319
Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

845
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:15,520
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846
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:17,320
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