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Speaker 1: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: Fifteen Cuddy Hony, five Thurdy thirty five, Horny Cody.

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Speaker 1: Five fifty can the Chicker Black College Football World Stunners.

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Speaker 2: Good bye, Oh my goodness.

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Speaker 3: He stumbled?

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Speaker 2: And football the lateral turn the counter of the episode.

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Speaker 3: Can't you believe I'm not.

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Speaker 2: Gonna table up the fail to night? By God, it's

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Speaker 2: not the size of the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 3: It's the size of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 2: What's up the general nation?

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. I'm Stucky

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Speaker 4: in with me as always as Colin Wilson. It's our

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Speaker 4: inaugural episode on the new channel. Welcome everyone. I'm glad

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Speaker 4: you found your way here. I'm very excited to have

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Speaker 4: a college only exclusive channel.

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Speaker 2: How goes it come?

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Speaker 1: Well, I mean, we have our own college exclusive channel.

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Speaker 1: We're going to have more college basketball, more college football,

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Speaker 1: more than what we're regular with on the other channel.

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Speaker 1: And there may even be a little bit of college

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Speaker 1: baseball audio to come up next spring. We'll have to

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Speaker 1: see how that goes. But I can't think of a

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Speaker 1: better way to kick off this new podcast channel than

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Speaker 1: to talk about one of our favorite conferences, who's like

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Speaker 1: literally going through breaking news right now. You know, no surprise,

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Speaker 1: looks like KU is in the sights of the Big Ten.

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Speaker 1: Either the Big Ten wants them or KU wants them,

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Speaker 1: and it looks like there's some chatter out there about that.

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Speaker 1: We have started off with the right conference to get

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Speaker 1: off to the right foot.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, if you haven't already checked out our previous episodes,

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Speaker 2: we've covered the Big Twelve, the ACC, and we had

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Speaker 2: a high level, two part overview of the college football

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Speaker 2: landscape and some wind total talk that's on our previous feed.

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Speaker 2: That's it. We won't be there ever again. So if

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Speaker 2: you one of us year, we have PAC twelve coming

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Speaker 2: up next Tuesday, and then we'll get into some group

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Speaker 2: of five. We'll have two episodes for the SEC, one

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Speaker 2: for each division, and then it's week zero is going

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Speaker 2: to be here. So it's coming up quick. But let's

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Speaker 2: dive right into the Big ten Big Ten unders. Look,

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Speaker 2: we just did the ACC. The story over the years

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Speaker 2: has been Clemson dominating the conference. It's a similar story

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Speaker 2: here with Ohio State. Ohio State's going for their fifth

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Speaker 2: straight Big Ten title. Well, they got a little bit

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Speaker 2: of a help last year with a rule change, but

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Speaker 2: they haven't lost to a team in their division in

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Speaker 2: the East since Penn State in a white out at

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Speaker 2: Happy Valley in twenty sixteen. Is the last time that

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Speaker 2: Ohio State lost a game to a team in their division.

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Speaker 2: This year, they're clearly the favorites in the East. They

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Speaker 2: you know, they did lose Justin Fields and Austrey Sermon

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Speaker 2: and seven regulars on defense, including their top three linebackers.

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Speaker 2: So there are some questions, but this is so high State.

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Speaker 2: They reload your four and five star, five stars. Step in.

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Speaker 2: We'll get to them in a second. The West has

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Speaker 2: been very unpredictable over the years. A lot of times

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Speaker 2: the preseason favored doesn't go on to win it. Northwestern

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Speaker 2: is actually going for their third division title in the

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Speaker 2: past four years. As far as coaching changes, to consider.

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Speaker 1: Bilama, Baby Blama is in this conference.

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Speaker 2: We'll get to him in a second. Teams that have

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Speaker 2: both new offensive and defensive coordinators Illinois, Maryland, and Michigan,

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Speaker 2: So you know, Maryland, Michigan, same head coaches, maybe on

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Speaker 2: the hot seat. We know bodog gym Is. Three teams

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Speaker 2: with new offensive coordinators Illinois, Maryland, and Penn State. Seven

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Speaker 2: of the fourteen teams and the Big Ten of new

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Speaker 2: defensive coordinators. Although Ohio State is just going from co

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Speaker 2: defensive coordinators to just Kerrie Coombs, they're included in that

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Speaker 2: list one new head coach, and that head coach is

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Speaker 2: the only head coach in FBS that has Colin Wilson

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Speaker 2: blocked on Twitter Brett Bilo about takes over for love

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Speaker 2: Smith at Illinois in Champagne. So I need another story.

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Speaker 2: Why are you blocked by mister Belina.

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Speaker 1: Love Smith more like Hadi Smith? Right, So, welcome to

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Speaker 1: the new channel. If you're a longtime listener.

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Speaker 3: I'm Devin Alabama Champagne Lovey Smith. His name should be

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Speaker 3: Haiti Smith Champagne.

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Speaker 1: Illinois is a program that we have struggled to handicap

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Speaker 1: for a long time because there's just no consistency. And

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Speaker 1: now Brett Bilama comes in. Yes, I'm blocked on Twitter

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Speaker 1: by Brett Bilama. I believe the tweet was a hashtag.

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Speaker 1: Oh and one is what I.

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Speaker 2: Said, woo pig Suey Colin's talking razorback football.

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Speaker 1: Brett came to our and saw after the John L.

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Speaker 1: Smith and the program just fell into a trench. Bilama

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Speaker 1: came in. He wanted to establish an identity. He ended

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Speaker 1: everything with We're going to go one and oh today.

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Speaker 1: At the same time, his wife Jen Bilama was tweeting

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Speaker 1: at Wisconsin Football saying hashtag karma. So karma, Gen and

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Speaker 1: Brett didn't really work out at Arkansas, not really justify

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Speaker 1: the salary that he was being paid by athletic director

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Speaker 1: John White, who's been fired by Arkansas and since been

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Speaker 1: fired by Kansas. I believe I was blocked around twenty fourteen.

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Speaker 1: He's a little bit sensitive about his image. He's a

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Speaker 1: little bit sensitive when he takes a loss. But I

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Speaker 1: am looking for Wisconsin to thump them because there will

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Speaker 1: be a hashtag karma to come out there. But Brett's

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Speaker 1: back in college football. He's not volunteering for Bill Belichick

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Speaker 1: and the Patriots. He's not drawing a minimum wage salary

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Speaker 1: for the New York Giants. And now that the Razorback

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Speaker 1: Foundation has decided to stop paying Brett Beilama this ridiculous

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Speaker 1: twenty million dollar buyout, he had to get a job.

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Speaker 1: You can find him as the head coach of Illinois,

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Speaker 1: probably waiting and biting his time so that Iowa job

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Speaker 1: could come free. To go back to where he played

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Speaker 1: college football. But yeah, I mean, what is his conference.

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Speaker 1: The characters we got here between Bodog Jim, don't gamble,

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Speaker 1: don't associate with gamblers, avoid it like the plague.

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Speaker 2: Let's check in with Bodog Jim.

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Speaker 1: And if you're new to the podcast and everything, Jim

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Speaker 1: Harbad doesn't like gamblers, he doesn't want associate with him,

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Speaker 1: doesn't anything to do with them. So we call him

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Speaker 1: Bowdog Jim. And now we got Brett Bielman in the conference.

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Speaker 1: And you know, I think it's just it's just a

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Speaker 1: cast of characters from PJ. Fleck to you know, Pat

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Speaker 1: Fitzgerald is just one of my most favorite conferences to

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Speaker 1: talk about.

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Speaker 2: So I'm looking back at some old tweets and Brett

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Speaker 2: believe in them. Here's one, well, here's one. Try to

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Speaker 2: pick out Danny Knows and Brett Belima from this lineup.

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Speaker 2: There's Beavis and butt Head, Dumb and Dummer, Burt and

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Speaker 2: Ernie and there's another one. Twenty sixteen, Brett Belima halftime

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Speaker 2: interviews said second half focus was a real problem and

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Speaker 2: they would try to take care of that against the Bobs.

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Speaker 2: Second half score seven to three, Hogs, Brett Belima. Oh

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Speaker 2: here it is tire Wilson family now blocked by Brette Bolima.

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Speaker 2: So this is great. So I'm gonna retweet something after

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Speaker 2: this comes out on Thursday. Anyway, we'll get We'll get

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Speaker 2: to Illinois. Let's Ohio State, by the ways, minus two

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Speaker 2: hundred to win the Big Ten. Yeah, Penn State plus

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Speaker 2: eight hundred, Wisconcert plus nine hundred, Iowa plus fourteen hundred,

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Speaker 2: and then the drop is pretty precipitous. In the West,

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Speaker 2: it pretty wide open. Wis concept is your favorite right

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Speaker 2: around eating money, Iowa plus two hundred, and those are

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Speaker 2: the two teams that most people think are in the running.

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Speaker 2: Minnesota Northwestern Nebraska kind of that second tier, and then

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Speaker 2: Purdue bringing up the rear. But let's start in the

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Speaker 2: East where Ohio State has just dominated this division. As

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Speaker 2: we said, they're going for their fifth straight Big Ten title.

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Speaker 2: We know they reload. This is year four of Ryan

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Speaker 2: Day Madison is gone as a co defensive coordinator. I

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Speaker 2: do have questions about the defense, specifically the secondary. Now

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Speaker 2: don't we said this on our main podcast. I don't

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Speaker 2: think it really hurts them in the Big Ten, but

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Speaker 2: if they were to get out of the Big Ten,

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Speaker 2: which I think they do get to the College Ball

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Speaker 2: Playoff play an elite passing offense. I have questions about

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Speaker 2: Kerry Coonstone takes over this defense full time, and you know,

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Speaker 2: they losed all three starting linebackers, and on the offensive side,

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Speaker 2: the talent is going to be there. The offensive line

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Speaker 2: is excellent. You know, you lose Trey Sermon, maybe the

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Speaker 2: best they still have to one of the best or

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Speaker 2: maybe the best wide receiver groups in the country. But

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Speaker 2: you lose justin fields as well. And not only do

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Speaker 2: you lose justin fields, you don't have a quarterback on

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Speaker 2: your roster who was thrown a pass in a game

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Speaker 2: at the FBS level. But there's a ton of talent there. C. J.

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Speaker 2: Stroud probably the favorite to get the job. So there

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Speaker 2: are questions with this Ohio State team, but they're clearly

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Speaker 2: the cream of the crop and the rightful favorite to

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Speaker 2: win the Big Ten again and get to the College

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Speaker 2: Football Playoff they get. They have some interesting games on

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Speaker 2: the schedule Penn State in Oregon, but both of them

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Speaker 2: are at home, and they will obviously look to continue

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Speaker 2: their dominance of Michigan. They're away games Minnesota, Rutgers, Indiana,

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Speaker 2: Nebraska and Michigan not bad at all, just that. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: but I do have questions about you know, my main

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Speaker 2: questions there is Sorry, let me see this quarterback. I

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Speaker 2: still think it's not gonna matter in the Big Ten,

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Speaker 2: but we got to see what the quarterback looks like.

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Speaker 2: I want to see what Coombs does with this defense.

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Speaker 2: They allowed one point seventy two yards per play more

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Speaker 2: last year than they did the year before. That was

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Speaker 2: the fourth worst decline in all of college football. And

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Speaker 2: then maybe I'll get a special team shout out early

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Speaker 2: on here. Their kicker kicking situation is a little question

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Speaker 2: whether their kicker went zero to two and in the

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Speaker 2: spring game. But this team's obviously loaded. I'm nitpicking here.

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Speaker 2: Anything with all hot to stay over eleven minus one

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Speaker 2: fifteen right there. So nothing here for me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'd be shocked if they didn't make

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Speaker 1: the college football Playoff. I'd be absolutely stunned if they

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Speaker 1: didn't make the college football playoff. And you know, I

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Speaker 1: think when you're saying that you have questions about the defense,

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Speaker 1: I think Ohio State themselves has questions about the defense. Finally,

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Speaker 1: a scheme change over to a four two five, They're

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Speaker 1: introducing the new bullet position. No player has been assigned

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Speaker 1: to that role. I mean, we're breaking camp here within

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Speaker 1: the next week at all these colleges, and we get

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Speaker 1: to get some more information about who's going to fill

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Speaker 1: this role as the bullet position. And if you're wondering

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Speaker 1: what a bullet position is, it's a floater that can

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Speaker 1: line up defensively in the secondary. Similar to Rokwand Smith

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Speaker 1: of Georgia who played nickelback, Isaiah Simmons of Clemson, who

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Speaker 1: was on the defensive line, he was back in the secondary.

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Speaker 1: This is just a player that they need to create,

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Speaker 1: you know, mismatches to give a quarterback looks, to make

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Speaker 1: them confused, to catch up with traves etns in space.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I mean, this is Ohio State trying to

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Speaker 1: find an answer to them getting beat in the College

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Speaker 1: Football Playoff or the National Championship game. So they're going

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Speaker 1: to run this four two five. They have a schedule

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Speaker 1: that's conducive for them to kind of try some things

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Speaker 1: out until they figure out who that person in that

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Speaker 1: position is going to be. But yeah, the talent is there,

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Speaker 1: especially in the front seven. This true freshman Jack Sawyer,

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Speaker 1: we've been told is ready for the NFL. That's a

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Speaker 1: statement and a half, especially with Chase Young being there

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Speaker 1: before Heisman contention, number four overall player in the twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty one recruiting class. He showed his explosive skills in

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Speaker 1: the spring game. Speaking of that, if we flip over

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Speaker 1: to the other side of the ball, I just don't

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Speaker 1: I don't have any questions about c J. Stroud whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: Justin Fields hit the spring game. Justin Field's transferred in

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Speaker 1: from Georgia, and we all said, why doesn't Georgia love him?

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Speaker 1: Why doesn't Kirby Smart love him? How could this kid

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Speaker 1: be transferring as the same recruiting rank as Trevor Lawrence

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Speaker 1: And he went to the spring game and he was

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Speaker 1: four or thirteen. His accuracy, he was a real issue

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Speaker 1: in that spring game.

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Speaker 2: C J.

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Speaker 1: Stroud not an issue. Sixteen to twenty five in the

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Speaker 1: spring game, one hundred and eighty five yards mistake free football.

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Speaker 1: And that is going to put him alongside the best

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Speaker 1: wide receiver unit in the nation with Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson,

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Speaker 1: and then as far as depth is concerned, we were

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Speaker 1: betting Jeremy Ruckert props in the National Championship so, I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is an offense we love. Ohio State has lost

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Speaker 1: one game since twenty eighteen that wasn't in the College

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Speaker 1: for World Playoffs, and it took a Rondell Moore Purdue

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Speaker 1: effort to get that done. I just I don't have

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Speaker 1: any questions about this team. They reload. Even when they

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Speaker 1: you know, you hear a big thing like they only

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Speaker 1: have four returning starters or they only return half their defense.

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Speaker 1: It just doesn't matter. And when you look at the

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Speaker 1: schedule and you compare it to Penn State schedule, minus

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Speaker 1: two hundred is really it's really not that bad. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if you look at it, I did a posh on

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Speaker 1: distribution piece where I looked at all of your win totals,

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Speaker 1: what your projection is to have one loss in conference,

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Speaker 1: two loss in conferences. Really the numbers should be minus

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Speaker 1: six thirty for the division and more closer to about

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Speaker 1: minus one fifty for the conference. But I mean the

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Speaker 1: case can be made in mind two hundred. There are

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Speaker 1: other numbers I would hit. We'll talk about those at

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Speaker 1: the end of the podcast, But to me, stuck, I

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Speaker 1: just I'm excited to see Jack Sawyer. I don't see

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Speaker 1: a bump on the road with CJ.

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Speaker 2: Stroud.

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Speaker 1: The bullet position, to me is the biggest thing, and

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Speaker 1: not just for Ohio State. There are other teams going

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Speaker 1: to a four two five and trying to identify this

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Speaker 1: bullet position as they try to get ready for the

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Speaker 1: Clemsons and the Alabamas of the world. Devonte Smith, this,

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Speaker 1: Jalen Waddell, Davonte Smith, just every defensive coordinator of the

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Speaker 1: world has to find an answer and not Isaiah Simmons

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Speaker 1: and Rokwon Smith just don't fall off the back of

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Speaker 1: the truck and the recruiting trail.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they were outside the top one hundred in past

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Speaker 2: success freight on defense last year, so it's definitely something

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Speaker 2: to keep an eye on. Now if your defensive front

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Speaker 2: ends up being very elite and there's a lot of

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Speaker 2: promise on the edges that can cover up a lot

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Speaker 2: of the holes that you have. And look, the talent

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Speaker 2: is there at the quarterback position, but it's zero career

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Speaker 2: pass attempts for the first time in the Ohio State

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Speaker 2: quarterback room since nineteen fifty two. So is that And

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Speaker 2: you're going on the road in a conference game to

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Speaker 2: start out your season. So yeah, it's Minnesota it's not

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Speaker 2: a great defense, but that's a tough spot for a

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Speaker 2: kid who's never thrown a pass. So we'll see right away,

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Speaker 2: you know. And then you get Oregon, so it's not

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Speaker 2: it's those first two games with a brand new quarterback.

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Speaker 2: It's not like they're playing you know, Akron to start

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Speaker 2: the season. So we'll see. But yeah, I do agree

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Speaker 2: that they should win the division, and I think they

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Speaker 2: ultimately win the Big Ten. But in that division in

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Speaker 2: the East, I think the way that I would teer

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Speaker 2: it cream of the crop Ohio State, and then I

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Speaker 2: think your primary challengers would be Indiana and Penn State

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Speaker 2: and then the rest. At this point, it's really shocking

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Speaker 2: to say, are pretty you know, I would just bunch

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Speaker 2: them all. Is like in that next year, Like I

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Speaker 2: don't even think Rutgers necessarily in the bottom anymore. They're

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Speaker 2: right there at Michigan State, Maryland, Michigan. Now, you could

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Speaker 2: be a little higher or lower on some of these teams,

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Speaker 2: and some of the win totals dictate that, but I

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Speaker 2: think that those teams are a step below Indiana and

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Speaker 2: Penn State. Let's start with Penn State, who I think

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Speaker 2: was a little unlucky last year, and they started shockingly

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Speaker 2: oh to four and then finished five and oh but

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Speaker 2: they were over They were plus one hundred and two

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Speaker 2: yards per game last year, but they were negative ten

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Speaker 2: in turnovers, the one hundred and seventeenth in turnover margin.

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Speaker 2: But they did win four straight. Now they started oh

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Speaker 2: to five, excuse me, started owing to five and then

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Speaker 2: won four straight to close the season. Clifford started to

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Speaker 2: play a little bit better. I'm still not a believer

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Speaker 2: in Sean Clifford. James Franklin maybe feeling some of the

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Speaker 2: heat this year, brought in a new offensive coordinator, a

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Speaker 2: new defensive coordinator. It's the third offensive coordinator in three years.

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Speaker 2: So while Clifford is back again after being benched last year,

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Speaker 2: you know then he re won his job. He's got

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Speaker 2: another offensive coordinator coming in here. There's talent here the

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Speaker 2: defensive line. Does that have to be rebuilt? They lost

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Speaker 2: a lot of talent on the defensive line, So that's

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Speaker 2: something to watch. The one thing that really sticks out

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Speaker 2: to me with Penn State and their win total over

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Speaker 2: eight and a half minus one twenty five is their

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Speaker 2: three toughest opponents on their schedule Wiscon, Ohio State and Iowa.

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Speaker 2: They get them all on the road, which is not

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Speaker 2: an easy task. What do you see with the Nickney Lions.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think if a new offensive coordinator, Mike Earsicic

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Speaker 1: can fix Sewn Clifford, he should easily be up for

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Speaker 1: the Broyles Award. So you know, Penn State, it's a

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Speaker 1: projection that I make at nine point two. The over

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Speaker 1: eight and a half is juice to minus one twenty five.

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Speaker 1: And there are things happening in the stat sheet and

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Speaker 1: with the coaching staff that just give me a little

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Speaker 1: bit of pause. James Franklin sweeping in to get Mike

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Speaker 1: Irisic because he was on the market and firing Kirk

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Speaker 1: Soroka after you know, getting him from Minnesota, kind of

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Speaker 1: taking him out of Minnesota's mix in a COVID season

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Speaker 1: where you know Soroca was, you know, dealt with Seawan

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Speaker 1: Clifford and you know, fix this and started off zero

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Speaker 1: to five. And you know, I think Franklin is he

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Speaker 1: knew that he wanted Mike Erisic and now that he's

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Speaker 1: got him. And if you're not familiar with who that is, uh,

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Speaker 1: this is an offensive coordinator that made Oklahoma State what

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Speaker 1: you remember it being which is extremely explosive of an

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Speaker 1: extremely successful I here since moved on. You know, I

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Speaker 1: think had a stan at Ohio State and the guy

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Speaker 1: is going to fix offenses. And I think the big

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Speaker 1: thing about the Nitney Lyons is is there are things

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Speaker 1: that happened, you know, outside of the football field that

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Speaker 1: you just you know, the loss of running back Noah Kane,

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Speaker 1: the loss of Journey Brown, you know, some losses on

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Speaker 1: the offensive line itself a sacarate of eighty seventh, you know,

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Speaker 1: highlights an offensive line that had issues protecting Clifford and

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Speaker 1: in the backup Will Levis who's left the program. No

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Speaker 1: Kane does return to the backfield. That's a huge weapon,

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Speaker 1: you know, along with some depth from the transfer portal

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Speaker 1: that they got it on offense, they can get it

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Speaker 1: back go on and Mike Heris such as the offensive

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Speaker 1: coordinator to do it. The defense, I'm I mean had

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Speaker 1: a little question about I mean, Brent Prye. It seems

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Speaker 1: like the defensive coordinator who's been with Franklin forever since

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Speaker 1: I think twenty eleven at Vanderbilt, it just seems like

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Speaker 1: things are going to the wrong direction. Mika Parsons is

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Speaker 1: now at Dallas Cowboy. Ellis Brooks and Jesse Loketa rise

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Speaker 1: up from the depth chart as the top tacklers from

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Speaker 1: last season. The issue with Brooks and Loketta is just

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Speaker 1: the lack of havoc. There was no havoc. Out of

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Speaker 1: the players that are returning to this defense, they recorded

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Speaker 1: just seven tackles for loss in one sack. That is

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Speaker 1: not Penn State defense that I'm used to. The secondary

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Speaker 1: returns two starters over the middle, but they got to

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Speaker 1: improve with the corner position. The opponent's just racked up

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Speaker 1: explosive plays through the air and a coverage rank of

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Speaker 1: seventy six per PFF. It's one of the worst that

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Speaker 1: Franklin's ever had. And Brent pry and that I'm not

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Speaker 1: sure what's going on the defensive side of the ball.

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Speaker 1: The schedule is brutal Wisconsin and Iowa, while Ohio State draws,

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Speaker 1: you know, cross competition against Nebraska and Purdue. All hopes

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Speaker 1: of you know, winning the East resides on a trip

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Speaker 1: to Columbus, but you got to win the rest of

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Speaker 1: your games and it's just not doable. So you know,

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Speaker 1: project them at nine point one. There's coin flips. I said,

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Speaker 1: you know against Iowa. Then there's a coin flip against Auburn.

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Speaker 1: You know, there's a plenty ofppointents on the schedule that

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Speaker 1: are rising. Rutgers in year two of greg Siana will

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Speaker 1: get there. Illinois is going to force a ground attack

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Speaker 1: on you with Brent Bilama. So if you're such a

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Speaker 1: concorrect the offensive line and Probaly can get the havoc

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Speaker 1: back on the defense, then yes, this isn't over eight

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Speaker 1: and a half. But there's not a lot of room

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Speaker 1: for air here with the schedule this tough and the

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Speaker 1: big question mark. Of course, we'll go back to it.

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Speaker 1: Seawan Clifford at quarterback, got to get him fixed.

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Speaker 2: I thought that they were probably going to be gone

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Speaker 2: with frankentmaking wholesale changes because of what that defense did

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Speaker 2: last year. They allowed twenty seven points, seven points per game,

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Speaker 2: most in school history. You mentioned the lack of playmaking,

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Speaker 2: only nine takeaways and twenty one sacks for the whole year.

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Speaker 2: Now it's a whole new defensive line with some reshuffling

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Speaker 2: the linebacker position, so I do have questions about the defense. Look,

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Speaker 2: it's a tough schedule too, those three really tough road games,

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Speaker 2: and you can't slip up anywhere else. You can't slip

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Speaker 2: up against Indiana at home. You can't slip up against

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Speaker 2: Michigan at home unless you steal one of those road

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Speaker 2: games against Iowa, Wisconsin or Ohio State. And then look,

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Speaker 2: you got to go to Maryland, a much improved Maryland

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Speaker 2: team who will get to I ultimately think the number

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Speaker 2: is spot on at over eight and a half minus

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Speaker 2: one twenty five, So nothing with nothing for Penn State

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Speaker 2: for me, all right, and then let's move on to Indiana.

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Speaker 2: Over eight win total, Yeah, over seven and a half

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Speaker 2: at some spots plus one, fifteen and twenty. You can

401
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Speaker 2: find some eights out there as well. The big question

402
00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:11,879
Speaker 2: here is, look you're hearing, is Indiana now football school?

403
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:15,440
Speaker 2: It's like, all right, good, can we can relax nobody?

404
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Speaker 2: He's twenty four to twenty two over five years now,

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Speaker 2: they're trending in the right direction. There were six and

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Speaker 2: two last year, and the big question is going to

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Speaker 2: be at Poenix. The quarterback Michael Poenix was back from

408
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Speaker 2: another injuries. At three seasons that he's played three season

409
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Speaker 2: ending injuries, and last year he tore the same ACL

410
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Speaker 2: he tore back in twenty eighteen, So questions with Phoenix's

411
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Speaker 2: health because behind him it's pretty pedestrian. He's ten and

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Speaker 2: two as a starter during his tenure in Bloomington, so

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of hope if he can stay healthy

414
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Speaker 2: what this Indiana team can do because their defense should

415
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Speaker 2: be excellent. This is arguably a top ten defense. You

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Speaker 2: lose Johnson at the safety position, but you bring Ball

417
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Speaker 2: back at that husky position. It's just a loaded group

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Speaker 2: with a lot of experience. New defensive coordinator, but I

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Speaker 2: don't think they'll change much on the defensive side. Offense,

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Speaker 2: you do have to worry about replacing a center and

421
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Speaker 2: one of your most reliable possession receivers. The running game

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Speaker 2: has been just meh, can you get that going? I

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Speaker 2: mean there were one hundred and twenty fourth in rush

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Speaker 2: explosiveness last year, just no explosiveness from the rushing attack

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Speaker 2: to help out Phoenix in that department. The question is

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Speaker 2: with Indiana, it's a brutal, brutal schedule. I mean, here's

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Speaker 2: their away games are. And I'll tell you right up front,

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Speaker 2: Indiana under is one of my favorite if you can

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Speaker 2: get eight eight, just one of my favorite windows. I'm

430
00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 2: right at about seven, and the schedule is just brutal.

431
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:43,680
Speaker 2: Look seven and five for Indiana this year. You could

432
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 2: finish in the top twenty five. Then it could be

433
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 2: a successful season, just because the schedule is and that's

434
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:52,439
Speaker 2: assuming Phoenix stays healthy, which isn't necessarily a given. But

435
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,639
Speaker 2: at Penn State, they get Ohio State at home, but

436
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 2: Ohio State's off of a bye. I mean those four

437
00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 2: games right there, could easily lose all four. Then you're

438
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 2: talking at Michigan at Maryland, no gimmes, let's even throw

439
00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:06,880
Speaker 2: an at Purdue a ribery game to close the year.

440
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:12,480
Speaker 2: How about Trap City at Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky off

441
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 2: of a bye. Meanwhile, Indiana will be coming off the

442
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:20,360
Speaker 2: game against Cincy with Penn State the week after. I mean,

443
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 2: that's not an easy trip at his flat trap look

444
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:27,119
Speaker 2: ahead City, So right there, I mean those are what

445
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:29,919
Speaker 2: at Maryland, at Michigan, at Purdue, at Western Kentucky in

446
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 2: a bad spot, at Penn State, at Iowa, Cincy in

447
00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 2: Ohio State. I mean that's eight games that if you

448
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:38,200
Speaker 2: told me they lost any one of them, I would

449
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 2: not be shocked. So I'm closer to seven. I'm going

450
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:42,760
Speaker 2: to go under eight, especially for a team that last

451
00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 2: year ran extremely well in the turnover department. I think

452
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 2: there's some regression coming there also in the red zone

453
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,720
Speaker 2: on both sides of the ball, So I think that

454
00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:55,120
Speaker 2: there's some regression coming for this group. The defense will

455
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 2: be excellent, it'll keep them in most games. But I

456
00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 2: think that this is a likely a haven win team

457
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 2: and which would be a successful season given their schedule.

458
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 2: What do you see what the Hoosiers.

459
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:08,359
Speaker 1: Well, considering it's Indiana football, Yeah, that would be very successful.

460
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 1: But I think expectations have been elevated a little bit

461
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,959
Speaker 1: for a program that is very much known for their basketball.

462
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,920
Speaker 1: You did a great job of handicapping Indiana. I'm in complete,

463
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:21,640
Speaker 1: one hundred percent agreeance. I wouldn't even mind playing under

464
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,879
Speaker 1: seven and a half. At plus one ten works for me,

465
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 1: so I project this at seven. But there's just other

466
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,199
Speaker 1: things that really bothered me about the team and some

467
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:31,719
Speaker 1: of the things that came out of their numbers from

468
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:33,760
Speaker 1: last year. You know, they lost two points of power

469
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 1: rating and their offseason power rating for me for second

470
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 1: order win total, indicating that there was a bit of

471
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 1: luck in that record of six and two. They finished

472
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:44,119
Speaker 1: plus eight net turnovers through eight games, and you mentioned

473
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 1: that turnover aggression is coming. But it's really interesting to

474
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 1: look if you look at the turnover battle in each

475
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,879
Speaker 1: individual game. The games that they won the turnover battle

476
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,879
Speaker 1: they won. The games that they lost the turnover battle

477
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:57,119
Speaker 1: they lost against Ohio State and Ole Miss in the

478
00:23:57,119 --> 00:24:00,920
Speaker 1: bowl game. So Penn State, Michigan, Maryland, they all finished

479
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:04,119
Speaker 1: with more total yards than Indiana, but still lost the

480
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 1: game because they lost the turnover bout. So there's just

481
00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 1: a lot of indicators here with Indiana that say that

482
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 1: you cannot do as well as you just did. Am

483
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 1: I a big fan of being thirteenth in havoc on defense, sure,

484
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:17,399
Speaker 1: top ten and defensive finishing drive, sure, but they're you know,

485
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:22,160
Speaker 1: the offense did not provide any rush explosiveness whatsoever. Ninety

486
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 1: eighth and rushing success rate moving the chains is a

487
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,680
Speaker 1: real problem and it's all dependent on their quarterback. Now

488
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:29,920
Speaker 1: he loses his top wide receiver target. It's top leading

489
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 1: you know target, Miles Marshall is now the home run

490
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 1: hitter and a stable of targets for Michael Pennix Junior,

491
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 1: assuming he's healthy to start the season. Now, he did

492
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 1: get up to the podium at Big ten Media Days,

493
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:41,359
Speaker 1: I'm healthy, I'm ready to go. But what's he going

494
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 1: to get up there and say, like, I'm still in pain.

495
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:46,439
Speaker 1: The sophomore quarterback, you know, confirmed that he's going to

496
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 1: be good to go at Kinnick. But that is not

497
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 1: an easy start to the season going to face the

498
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 1: Iowa defense. You know, Indiana finished outside the top ninety

499
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 1: and success rate on both sides of the ball. And

500
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:58,440
Speaker 1: you're right, the changes won't change. It's Tom Allen's in

501
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 1: control of that defense no matter if they have new coordinator.

502
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 1: You know, they averaged just two point five points to

503
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,440
Speaker 1: teams two opponents that made it past the forty yard line.

504
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 1: I think that's sustainable. I think it's just that the turnovers,

505
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:13,679
Speaker 1: you know, the number of successful drives on offense, you know,

506
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 1: missing out on their biggest target, the biggest hole for

507
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 1: to plug for Tom Allen's defense is lineyards and stuff. Right,

508
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,879
Speaker 1: they had ranks in the bottom twenty, which is a

509
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:23,680
Speaker 1: little bit shocking to me when I look at their

510
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,639
Speaker 1: advanced stats. I mean their top fifty almost everything, and

511
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,119
Speaker 1: thirteenth in defensive havoc. But you're one hundred and thirteenth

512
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 1: in lineyards and one hundred and seventeenth and stuff right,

513
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 1: Meaning teams can run on you all day. That doesn't

514
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:35,800
Speaker 1: make Illinois an easy win if they're just going to

515
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 1: run the ball all the time and you're outside the

516
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 1: top one hundred in these advanced rushing stats. So boy,

517
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 1: and you mentioned Western Kentucky, Holy Cal. You're going to

518
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:45,639
Speaker 1: turn this into a Bailey Zappy Hilltopper podcast because that's

519
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:47,879
Speaker 1: all I want to talk about. But there are games

520
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 1: on this schedule. I am not a favorite of Indiana

521
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 1: winning Iowa. Cincinnati, Maryland, who we're going to talk about,

522
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:58,440
Speaker 1: I think is on the rise. Michigan is not garbage.

523
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:02,160
Speaker 1: You know, Minnesota and Purdue all represent games with projected

524
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:05,199
Speaker 1: lines within four points of a pick. So with that

525
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:08,119
Speaker 1: many coin flips, a game like Week one against Iowa

526
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:11,399
Speaker 1: is crucial to the win total. So considering the Indiana

527
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 1: secondary can handle Spencer Petris, I would say, if you

528
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 1: can win that game against Iowa, you're on your way

529
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 1: to getting it over. But I'm just not confident in

530
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 1: this team whatsoever, So I'm siding with you on the under.

531
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 2: I haven't won nine games since nineteen sixty seven, but

532
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 2: I mean, though, the defense is gonna keep me in

533
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:30,919
Speaker 2: games it's they're going to be there, and they have

534
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 2: a top ten secondary. I think, you know, Taiwan Mullen

535
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 2: is excellent at and Jalen Williams a great corner duo.

536
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 2: But I just think this number is too high. That's

537
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 2: the kind of the challengers in the East. Let's get

538
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 2: to the rest. I'll let you take this one. Michigan

539
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 2: over seven and a half minus one twenty. This is

540
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:57,439
Speaker 2: Jim Harball year seventh. Just changes. On defense. Don Brown

541
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 2: is now gone. You're going to see them move to

542
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:05,399
Speaker 2: a different defensive scheme. On offense, it's got us again,

543
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:08,360
Speaker 2: the pro spread, no huddle. Oh year three, can they

544
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:12,160
Speaker 2: find a quarterback? Questions abound? The one thing went positive?

545
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 2: Then you know me many I can say for Michigan

546
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 2: and their win to over seven and a half minus

547
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 2: one twenty. They were dead last and experienced last year,

548
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 2: So that you know, if you think, all right, this

549
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 2: was one of the youngest teams in regards to experience

550
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 2: in the nation last year. Maybe there's a jump this

551
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:36,680
Speaker 2: year in certain positions. I think even the biggest Michigan

552
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 2: fan out there would say that this if everything went

553
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 2: right this year, and it hasn't been a long time.

554
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 2: This ceiling is nine and three. Like they got Ohio

555
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 2: State at home. We know they can't be to Ohio State.

556
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 2: They're at Penn State and they're at Wisconsin. Like that

557
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:54,440
Speaker 2: is where you're starting for your ceiling if everything goes right.

558
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:56,879
Speaker 2: So yeah, you know, if you like this over, you

559
00:27:56,920 --> 00:28:00,640
Speaker 2: don't have much room for air. I kind of lean

560
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 2: under here with Michigan. I'd still Michigan. I think that

561
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:07,680
Speaker 2: there's still some inflation because of the name Michigan. I'm

562
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 2: right around seven. But I'll let you take Boatdog Jim

563
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 2: and your thoughts on the Wolverines.

564
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:16,639
Speaker 1: It's really interesting. I guess it kind of depends on

565
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 1: how old you are as a person. If you're a

566
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 1: gen Zer, if you're a zoomer, then you're probably pretty

567
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:24,479
Speaker 1: used to this kind of Michigan team. If you're a

568
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:27,120
Speaker 1: gen X or a millennial, think about what you've gone

569
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:29,360
Speaker 1: through in the last fifteen years. I mean, you've gone

570
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:32,680
Speaker 1: from a national title contender to a Big Ten contender

571
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 1: to a team that has lost four straight ball games.

572
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh field at a two and fourteen that mercifully

573
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:41,280
Speaker 1: didn't have to play Ohio State last year. The defense

574
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 1: ranked one hundred and tenth and finishing drives and one

575
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 1: hundred and twentieth and havoc. That is not Michigan football

576
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 1: and not what we saw like three years ago. So,

577
00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 1: you know, we're having a little bit of an identity

578
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,240
Speaker 1: crisis and things are not going in the right way.

579
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 1: But if this is a stock market and you want

580
00:28:56,360 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 1: to buy the dip, the question is is this the dip? Yeah?

581
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 1: And you know the Wolverines returned seventy percent of their defense.

582
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 1: They just had five and a half tackles for loss

583
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 1: in four and a half sacks. I am I reading

584
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 1: that for one player, No, I'm reading that for the

585
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 1: team linebacker, nose tackle. Will have fresh faces on the

586
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 1: secondary that returns pieces that were torched last season. A

587
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 1: coverage rank is seventy sixth is in combination with ranks

588
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 1: outside the top one hundred, pass explosiveness and finishing drives.

589
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 1: On defense, opponents are a scoring at will. They are

590
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 1: moving the ball at will. And I there need to

591
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 1: be a change of defensive coordinator, but is that going

592
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 1: to solve everything? You know, we have seventy percent of

593
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:37,040
Speaker 1: the defense returning. You know McDonald, the new defensive coordinator

594
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 1: comes in from the Baltimore Ravens. It's funny the John

595
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:43,840
Speaker 1: to Jim Harbaugh move here. But McDonald has stated that

596
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 1: we want to be multiple. We're gonna go three four,

597
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 1: we're gonna go four to three, we're going to go

598
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 1: six to one. And I'm thinking to myself, you just

599
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 1: finished one hundred and twentieth in defensive havoc, and you're

600
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 1: going to go in and put this playbook on these kids,

601
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 1: and they're supposed to pick up the blitz and sup

602
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 1: there's gonna be mised assignments whether they can learn this.

603
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 1: It's like, you know, David Randa goes into Baylor and

604
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 1: he's got eighteen different variations of how he's running the

605
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 1: three four or two five, you know whatever, two five

606
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 1: to five. He expect these kids to pick it up

607
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 1: on day one. I just don't think it works that way,

608
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 1: especially with the defense. It's been trending this direction, so

609
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 1: you know that remains to be seen offensively. I mean,

610
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 1: Joe Milton's gone, Dylan McCaffrey in transferred out leaves Cade

611
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 1: McNamara and Texas texta transfer. Alan Bowman. I mean you

612
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 1: and I kidded on previous podcast that Alan Bowman you know,

613
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 1: was the hot route quarterback because he was firing to

614
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 1: his first look. But he was doing that because he

615
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:38,360
Speaker 1: was always injured punctured long hospital time. I mean, I'd

616
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:39,960
Speaker 1: be throwing the ball as quick as I could also,

617
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 1: so it'd be interesting to see what Alan Bowman can

618
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 1: do behind an offensive line that went eighteenth in havoc allowed.

619
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 1: That's a great number, twenty fifth in offensive finishing drives.

620
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 1: Hopefully they can put some points up on the board,

621
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 1: but Milton's accuracy needed to go. McNamara had limited action

622
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 1: last year. Biggest stat that sticks out for me is

623
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 1: turnover worthy plays. I've seventy two drop back during twenty

624
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 1: twenty the red shirt freshman log just one turnover worthy play.

625
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 1: If you're looking to buy the dip on a Josh

626
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 1: Gaddis offense, you want a kid that had seventy two

627
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 1: dropbacks and just one turnover worthy play. That's the kind

628
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 1: of stability that this offense needs. Now I've double checked

629
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 1: the numbers. I mean, my win projection is six. That's

630
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:19,160
Speaker 1: not a misprint. If you go to Action Network and

631
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 1: look at all of our win totals for every single

632
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 1: college football team. I'm very low on this team. There's

633
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 1: a new defensive coordinator, there's no havoc experience returning whatsoever.

634
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 1: There's a new scheme, there's turnover at the skill positions

635
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 1: on offense, quarterback. You know, coin flip games are spreads

636
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 1: of six or less. Right when I say coin flip games,

637
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 1: it means the spread is six or less. And that

638
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 1: includes games against Washington, Nebraska, Indiana, Maryland. A double digit

639
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 1: spread against Rutgers. I'm not really sure. Rutgers is the

640
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 1: carpet of this league. You can just walk all over anymore.

641
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 1: Channel's got them roll in the right direction. So the

642
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 1: ceiling for this team is nine wins. There's a high,

643
00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 1: probably the Harbaugh Finchers with six or seven. That makes

644
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 1: this an underplay for me. I'm sticking to my mathematics.

645
00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:06,000
Speaker 1: And you know we do this every summer when we

646
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 1: cut our podcast. If you have a huge scheme change

647
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 1: like this and you have skill positions, you have to

648
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 1: be explosive a college football. You have to be able

649
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:16,720
Speaker 1: to put points up on the board. And if you

650
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 1: can't do any of those things, you're gonna get trounced.

651
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 1: And I just think Michigan is in the spot where

652
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 1: they're not going to get date wins.

653
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 2: Do not disagree with you there, Let's stay in the

654
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 2: Great Lake State and go to Michigan State. Sparty win

655
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 2: total over five minus one point fifteen. Look, mel Tucker

656
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 2: was put in an almost impossible situation last year after

657
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 2: D'Antonio left, and the recruiting under D'Antonio at the end

658
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 2: of his ten there was really starting to dwindle. You know,

659
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 2: it was ugly Michigan State's the offense in particular one

660
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:48,080
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty second and success rate one hundred and

661
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 2: twenty fifth in rushed explosiveness. The old line was bad,

662
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 2: The quarterback play was poor, nineteen point six percent turnover rate,

663
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 2: that's second worst in FBS. Just nothing really went right

664
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 2: on the offensive side of the ball. Is you know,

665
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 2: Anthony Russo the answer the Temple transfer is at Peyton Thorn,

666
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 2: I'm not sure, but there's a lot of questions on

667
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 2: offense outside of Nailor and Reed. They have promised at

668
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 2: wide receiver. They do bring in Kenneth Walker from wake

669
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 2: Forest at running back, but there's questions on this offense

670
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 2: and then on defense, and look, just what's going on

671
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 2: with Michigan. Say, now there's a ton of ton of

672
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 2: players left via the transfer portal. They also brought a

673
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 2: lot in and they're gonna be very reliant on transfers

674
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 2: on the defensive side of the ball, where they have

675
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 2: to replace three stars, one on each level. You know

676
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 2: Brown at corner, Simmons at linebacker, and Jones at defensive tackle.

677
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:39,440
Speaker 2: So there's a lot of work for mel Tucker here.

678
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 3: Uh.

679
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 2: Like I said, win total is over five minus one

680
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 2: fifteen if you know you and they allowed where they

681
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:52,600
Speaker 2: allowed thirty over thirty five points per game last year,

682
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 2: most in school history. If you believe now some of that,

683
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 2: you're gonna hear that stat because they played a conference

684
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 2: only schedule, but the defense wasn't getting it done. The

685
00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 2: office just didn't help them at all. If you believe

686
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 2: in Anthony Russo, you think he's the savior, maybe you

687
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 2: like this over five not something I want to get involved.

688
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 2: What do you see at.

689
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 1: SPARTI, Well, the handicap starts with Rocky Lombardi has moved

690
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 1: on to Northern Illinois. That's it. That's the cap. No,

691
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 1: I mean Anthony Russo coming in from Temple. You have

692
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 1: to go back to his twenty nineteen numbers because of

693
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,319
Speaker 1: last season, and you know, he has a really big arm.

694
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 1: He had twenty one touchdowns twelve interceptions. He can get

695
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:30,960
Speaker 1: himself in trouble with some of the decisions he makes,

696
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:34,239
Speaker 1: but he can hit Michigan State wide receivers down the field.

697
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 1: It's something Rocky Lombardi never had a chance of doing.

698
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 1: So there is a new element to the Michigan State offense.

699
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:43,719
Speaker 1: So we do have to recognize that, especially when they

700
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 1: have ranks that are below one hundred and twenty. And

701
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:48,919
Speaker 1: I mean I'm staring at Havoc allowed one twentieth line yards,

702
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:52,840
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty fourth finishing drives ut or tenties.

703
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 1: That is bad. It's all red. But you know, Rocky

704
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:58,000
Speaker 1: Lombardi out Anthony Russo d means that they're going to

705
00:34:58,040 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 1: be able to make big time throws. Are they gonna

706
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 1: be inner eception still? Of course, at the pace of

707
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 1: Rocky Lombardi, I'm not sure because I've never seen a

708
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:08,960
Speaker 1: kid just so turnover prone. I mean, we've seen a

709
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:11,319
Speaker 1: few and we haven't got to the G five podcast yet,

710
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:13,800
Speaker 1: so you know, we'll see what they can do on offense.

711
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:15,759
Speaker 1: But the Spartans rank of one hundred and twentieth and

712
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:18,719
Speaker 1: Havoc allowed, you know, that may be the floor here

713
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:20,320
Speaker 1: and we'll see if what they bring back in the

714
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:22,279
Speaker 1: two deep on the offensive line can correct some of

715
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:25,319
Speaker 1: that defense. Corneator Scott Hazelton came in from Kansas State.

716
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 1: We thought that he was going to fix everything on defense,

717
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:30,319
Speaker 1: and still, you know, he didn't get them up off

718
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 1: the mat. I think what's interesting about this team what

719
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 1: makes him hard to handicap. I know, in the in

720
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 1: the ACC preview, we talked about how pitt was able

721
00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 1: to win games as underdogs and they were able to

722
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 1: blow things as favorites last year, you know, beating Michigan

723
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,000
Speaker 1: number Michigan was ranked number thirteen at the time in

724
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 1: the second week of the year, beat them and then

725
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 1: beat Northwestern later on in the season. Northwestern was out

726
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 1: of its mind, out of control playing in the Big

727
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 1: Ten championship last year. So pretty impressive stuff for Michigan

728
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:58,400
Speaker 1: State to be able to, you know, turn around and

729
00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:00,799
Speaker 1: get those wins. So, and I think the defense is

730
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:02,920
Speaker 1: going to continue to get better. I think the upgrade

731
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:05,799
Speaker 1: from Lombardi to Russo is good. But this is a

732
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 1: defensive minded coach with a defensive coordinators still struggling for answers.

733
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:12,400
Speaker 1: With an offense that is looking to protect their quarterback,

734
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 1: He's going to make mistakes. You know. The projection for

735
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:16,839
Speaker 1: me on this team is four point four to five.

736
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 1: So the only play is an under five that is

737
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 1: at BETTENMGM over over five is minus one fifteen under

738
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:25,279
Speaker 1: to be minus one oh five. So that's the only

739
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:27,239
Speaker 1: play to make. But I'm not in a rush to

740
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:30,040
Speaker 1: go and fade this team, especially when you're only two

741
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:32,280
Speaker 1: wins last year. We're against number eleven at number thirteen.

742
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 1: That gives me positive think, Hey, they could pull something

743
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 1: off here in this conference.

744
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 2: Moving on to another team in that group of the

745
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:43,920
Speaker 2: rest in the East, Maryland, are you ready what the

746
00:36:43,960 --> 00:36:44,680
Speaker 2: noise brought on you?

747
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:45,400
Speaker 1: Because here it comes.

748
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 2: Yes, that's what Maryland does. Maryland over five and a

749
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 2: half minus one forty five. Haven't had a winning record

750
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:59,240
Speaker 2: in a decade at Maryland, but this is Look Mike Loxley,

751
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 2: it's year three, but he brought in a brand new

752
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:03,880
Speaker 2: staff yet. But the recruiting is also up. I mean

753
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 2: some of the recruits that they're bringing in has to

754
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:10,879
Speaker 2: give Maryland fans some hope about where this football team

755
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 2: is headed. You bring Tagolo back at quarterback. The problem

756
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:18,120
Speaker 2: with this offense is it is so and you could

757
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:19,839
Speaker 2: look at some of their results last year. They would

758
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 2: lose by forty and or they would win and score

759
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 2: fIF they would only score three and then they would

760
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 2: score fifty. Just very hit or miss up and down, inconsistent,

761
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 2: not a lot of efficiency, but a lot of explosives,

762
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 2: a ton of talent at the receiver position that they

763
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 2: brought in. Could dan Enos I don't know, don't We're

764
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 2: not the biggest fans of increase that efficiency. You know

765
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:44,759
Speaker 2: you're probably gonna see more placation, more screens out of

766
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 2: the offense this year. And then on defense the past

767
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:51,120
Speaker 2: defense had a lot of promise last year and has

768
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 2: a lot of potential. Could some of their highly talented

769
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:56,359
Speaker 2: recruits Terrence Lewis, for example, a five star linebacker. Can

770
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 2: they step in and contribute on the defensive side of

771
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 2: the ball. Or Maryland. It's a team with a lot

772
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:05,479
Speaker 2: of potential and a high ceiling this year if things

773
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:07,759
Speaker 2: go right because of the amount of talent they have,

774
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 2: Can they are the scheme changes are positive or do

775
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:14,120
Speaker 2: they hold them back? They need to get more consistent,

776
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,840
Speaker 2: more efficient, but if you look at their schedule, you know,

777
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 2: for their first five are at home. That's a good

778
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,799
Speaker 2: thing when you're trying to implement some changes, built some momentum,

779
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,920
Speaker 2: and I'd argue all but one, all but one of

780
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:30,759
Speaker 2: their games are winnable, you know, besides Ohio State. Would

781
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:33,840
Speaker 2: it shock you if I told you they won any

782
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:35,480
Speaker 2: other game on their schedule?

783
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 1: No, absolutely not.

784
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 2: You know, again, it's a very jeckyle and high team.

785
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 2: You know, they're starting at home against West Virginia. Not

786
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,160
Speaker 2: an easy game, you know, But you get Iowa at home,

787
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:47,160
Speaker 2: you know, you get Indiana at home, you get Penn

788
00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 2: State at home. So your road game, you get Michigan

789
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:54,279
Speaker 2: at home. Your road games and conference are Michigan State, Rutgers, Minnesota, Illinois.

790
00:38:54,320 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 2: Outside of Ohio State, it's a very favorable schedule. You

791
00:38:56,960 --> 00:39:00,120
Speaker 2: get your toughest opponents at home. Uh and you're he's

792
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:03,920
Speaker 2: us opponents on the road, Maryland over five and a

793
00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 2: half minus one forty five. What do you got with

794
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 2: the terms?

795
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:09,839
Speaker 1: I'm buying them. I projected them at six point one.

796
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:12,719
Speaker 1: Obviously this thing is juicing up, and maybe Maryland will

797
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:14,239
Speaker 1: get to six at some point. But I mean that's

798
00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:16,120
Speaker 1: the goal of this team if Mike Loxley's to get

799
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 1: to a bowl game, and hopefully with Dan Enos coming

800
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 1: into town, he plays more of a clipboard holder, maybe

801
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 1: helps out with the quarterbacks, similar to what he did

802
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 1: at Alabama when Locksley was the offensive coordinator and Dany

803
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 1: Noos was there to I don't know, hopefully fetch water,

804
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:33,040
Speaker 1: but I mean Locksley, it should be calling the plays.

805
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 1: It's going to be the system that he ran at

806
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:37,160
Speaker 1: Alabama with two at tackle Bolas if he's going to

807
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:40,359
Speaker 1: be doing with Talio tackle Vola here. So you know,

808
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 1: it didn't give me pause that Enos is there because

809
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:44,960
Speaker 1: I know Locksley is the one in charge of this.

810
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 1: And I think it's important to note that this defense

811
00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:50,839
Speaker 1: returns ninety six percent of its production last year. I

812
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:52,960
Speaker 1: know that they were one hundred and fourteenth and finishing drives.

813
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 1: They gave everything away when teams got past the forty

814
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:57,839
Speaker 1: yard line, but they were forty fifth in defensive success rate.

815
00:39:58,160 --> 00:40:00,319
Speaker 1: That means that they did stop the chains more often

816
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:02,800
Speaker 1: than not, and that is something to build on. Lots

817
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:05,800
Speaker 1: of explosive players on this team, especially on offense, a

818
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:09,279
Speaker 1: big piece being wide receiver Dante Dimas the defense you

819
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 1: know they've got playmakers too. And you mentioned the schedule

820
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:18,480
Speaker 1: to me, there's four games where they should win. Rutgers, Illinois, Howard,

821
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 1: Kent State. Kent State has zero defense. I love their

822
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 1: offense where they have zero defense. You know, Illinois is

823
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:27,760
Speaker 1: a team that likes to rush the ball, but Maryland's

824
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:29,160
Speaker 1: going to be able to stop that. Illinois will have

825
00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 1: no passing attack whatsoever. And then there's Michigan State on

826
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:34,560
Speaker 1: the schedule, a game where Maryland should be about minus

827
00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:37,359
Speaker 1: five and a half, the minus six against another winnable game.

828
00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:39,879
Speaker 1: And then a handful of these games are at home,

829
00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:42,920
Speaker 1: so they're prime for upset. They're short dogs against Indiana

830
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:45,920
Speaker 1: and Minnesota. West Virginia is all defense. We don't think

831
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 1: they're going to get much on offense there. So there

832
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:50,239
Speaker 1: is a lot of ways to get this win total

833
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 1: to six. And they end the season against Rutgers. If

834
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 1: they're sitting on five wins, that's plenty of motivation to

835
00:40:56,680 --> 00:40:59,239
Speaker 1: get the bowl season. And they're facing Rutgers. It's not

836
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:01,439
Speaker 1: like they're facing Ohio sater Pens State or somebody big.

837
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:03,959
Speaker 1: It's it's a win total you can hedge yourself out

838
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:06,120
Speaker 1: of and that's what we like to look for here,

839
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:07,880
Speaker 1: and that's what we give with Maryland. So yeah, I

840
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 1: am over five and a half. I take a pose

841
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:12,280
Speaker 1: at six. But I do love the exposiveess on this team.

842
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:14,960
Speaker 1: I do love everything they return on defense. They get

843
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:17,280
Speaker 1: some success rate on both sides of the ball, especially

844
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:19,600
Speaker 1: on offense. They could be a little dangerous. Maybe they'll

845
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:21,480
Speaker 1: move up from the bottom three teams and into the

846
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:23,560
Speaker 1: top four teams in the in their division.

847
00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 2: Speaking of Rutgers, to close out the East over four

848
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:30,359
Speaker 2: minus one oh five. Look, they ended a twenty Greg

849
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 2: Giano's there. I think he's gonna turn this program around,

850
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 2: get it back to where, you know, just at least respectability.

851
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:39,399
Speaker 2: It's gonna take some time. They ended a twenty one

852
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:41,600
Speaker 2: game big ten losing street last year and went three

853
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:44,720
Speaker 2: and six, which is really good for where this Rutgers

854
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:48,080
Speaker 2: team was, you know, two three years ago, they were

855
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:51,360
Speaker 2: you know, three and six with three one possession losses.

856
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 2: But this is a team that I think was a

857
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:55,759
Speaker 2: bit lucky last year. Do you know a lot of

858
00:41:55,760 --> 00:42:01,319
Speaker 2: trick plays, turnover luck and dominant specialty. There's spose things

859
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 2: will be good again, But I just think all those

860
00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:06,799
Speaker 2: things are probably unsustainable. The defense has some players, you know,

861
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:08,840
Speaker 2: I like their corners and young and Avery. They have

862
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:12,160
Speaker 2: rene from unc Photocossi's a studded linebacker at one hundred

863
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:14,840
Speaker 2: plus tackles last year. And they could start three and

864
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:17,920
Speaker 2: L like to get some momentum at Rutgers. They opened

865
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:21,200
Speaker 2: at Temple, at home at Syracuse, and then home against Delaware.

866
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 2: So the total of four, you'd be sitting in a

867
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:25,920
Speaker 2: good spot if you get three and oh and you

868
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 2: know you probably have to then eat a a Maryland

869
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 2: close here in Michigan state at home, you know, or

870
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:32,440
Speaker 2: you're gonna to steal one of the road at Northwestern

871
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:34,479
Speaker 2: or at Illinois. So it won't be easy, but that'll

872
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:35,759
Speaker 2: help you that you really got to get off to

873
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 2: a fest starter for Rutgers. But you know, I think

874
00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:41,360
Speaker 2: that there's you know, the recruiting's improven. Ciano has this

875
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:44,279
Speaker 2: headed in the right direction. Galase in his back is

876
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:48,239
Speaker 2: an offensive coordinator. Why is that important? Before last year,

877
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:50,800
Speaker 2: we're going into last year. Gleason was their eleventh offensive

878
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:55,360
Speaker 2: coordinator in eleven years. They finally have at least some stability.

879
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:58,360
Speaker 2: But the offense, I think is it's still a mess

880
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:01,600
Speaker 2: to me. The defenses has some problems. There were top

881
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:04,680
Speaker 2: twenty las year tackles for lost and turnovers. I just

882
00:43:04,719 --> 00:43:07,400
Speaker 2: don't know if they're gonna be able to duplicate, you know,

883
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:10,600
Speaker 2: the trick plays the turnovers. You know, we remember that

884
00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:14,200
Speaker 2: Michigan State game as good of special teams play as

885
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 2: last year. This is a past team for me. I

886
00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 2: think has it headed in the right direction, but it's

887
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:20,600
Speaker 2: gonna take some time.

888
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 1: What do you see with Ruckers, Yeah, it's a past

889
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 1: team for me too. At four point six for their

890
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:28,080
Speaker 1: projected win total, you know there it's all moving in

891
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 1: a positive direction. And the fact that they were able

892
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:32,799
Speaker 1: to get as many wins last year speaks to the

893
00:43:32,840 --> 00:43:34,759
Speaker 1: power the great move they did to go back and

894
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:38,080
Speaker 1: get Schiano, have him come in in state recruiting, and

895
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:40,120
Speaker 1: I think one of the best moves he made was

896
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:42,239
Speaker 1: to go down and say, hey, Sean Gleeson, you were

897
00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:47,759
Speaker 1: once the highest scoring coach in FCS at Princeton and

898
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:49,239
Speaker 1: you went down to Stillwater. Why don't you come up

899
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 1: and be my offensive coordinator? And you know, coming back

900
00:43:52,120 --> 00:43:54,040
Speaker 1: to New Jersey. I thought that was a pretty easy

901
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 1: decision for Gleason, And you know, I think the reason

902
00:43:57,239 --> 00:43:58,960
Speaker 1: that you use a bunch of trick plays or you

903
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 1: move the pocket is because you just don't have the

904
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:02,880
Speaker 1: talent to just line up and run it down people's throats.

905
00:44:02,880 --> 00:44:06,279
Speaker 1: And you know, Rutgers played extremely hard. There is a

906
00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:09,920
Speaker 1: lot about Rutgers in Arkansas that remind me so much

907
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 1: of each other. Their advanced splitz are outside the top

908
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:15,760
Speaker 1: one hundred and everything, but they play hard for their coach.

909
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 1: They believe in the direction that they're going. And now

910
00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:21,400
Speaker 1: they have no Vedrol and he's got to increase his efficiency.

911
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:24,080
Speaker 1: Rutgers was one hundred and eight and passing success rate,

912
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:27,399
Speaker 1: but he ended the season with more touchdowns than interceptions.

913
00:44:27,480 --> 00:44:30,080
Speaker 1: That is a massive upgrade for some of the quarterbacks

914
00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 1: they've had in the pass. And if you look at

915
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:34,480
Speaker 1: some of the numbers, like the zones that he threw to,

916
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:37,280
Speaker 1: he had a better passing grade and thirty nine attempts

917
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 1: over twenty yards than the ninety three attempts that he

918
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:44,640
Speaker 1: had between zero and nine yards. So it's really you

919
00:44:44,680 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 1: can expect Rutgers to be able to complete some big

920
00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:51,080
Speaker 1: exposive plays to people like Bo Melton, who leads upperclassmen receivers,

921
00:44:51,080 --> 00:44:53,680
Speaker 1: and there could be a push and expected points with

922
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 1: these guys on offense. Now, Schiano's known for his defense,

923
00:44:57,360 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 1: you know, defensive coordinator Ohio State for three years. You

924
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:04,480
Speaker 1: know previously here at Rutgers, they improved a little bit

925
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:07,000
Speaker 1: across the board, but I mean they got ninety percent

926
00:45:07,040 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 1: of their defense coming back. Front seven is led by

927
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:14,080
Speaker 1: linebackers Fudukasi, Tyson Fogg, the edge Mike Teverdov combined for

928
00:45:14,120 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 1: eighteen tackles for loss and eight sacks. Any opponent on

929
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:20,360
Speaker 1: the schedule that is run based and cannot go downfield

930
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:24,920
Speaker 1: may have issues against the Rutgers front seven. The win total,

931
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:26,880
Speaker 1: you know, like we said said at five, I'm just

932
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:28,879
Speaker 1: a little shade under that. So there's really no play

933
00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 1: here for me. But there's a case I can make

934
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:33,600
Speaker 1: that they take a step forward. The schedule includes Temple

935
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:36,640
Speaker 1: and Delaware games where Rutgers will be favored by double digits.

936
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:39,400
Speaker 1: Two other games or coin flips Michigan State and Syracuse.

937
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:41,800
Speaker 1: I mean, for Rutgers to get over the win total,

938
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:45,200
Speaker 1: they're going to need underdog wins against Illinois, Maryland, and

939
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:47,640
Speaker 1: Michigan State. And then when you sit there and consider that,

940
00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:50,320
Speaker 1: you know the Terrapins and the Spartans have plenty of

941
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 1: skill on the outside and the Rutgers secondary. It may

942
00:45:54,560 --> 00:45:56,160
Speaker 1: be a tough to make a case that they can

943
00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:58,000
Speaker 1: get to six wins. Now with Illinois, I think they

944
00:45:58,000 --> 00:45:59,720
Speaker 1: could beat the because Illinois is gonna be one dimensional,

945
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:02,600
Speaker 1: runs the ball more than anybody else, and that goes

946
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:04,880
Speaker 1: to the skill set of the Rutgers defense. So I

947
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:07,200
Speaker 1: think five is the right number. We're still heading in

948
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:09,279
Speaker 1: a positive direction. This isn't a team we just can't

949
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 1: line up and bet against every week anymore. I think

950
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 1: Shiano's got them going in the right direction. They continue

951
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:14,120
Speaker 1: on that path.

952
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:18,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, the recruiting class for twenty twenty two looks really

953
00:46:18,120 --> 00:46:20,240
Speaker 2: promising for Rutgers. I think they got a hard commit

954
00:46:20,280 --> 00:46:23,160
Speaker 2: from Gavin Wimsatt, a quarterback out of actually down by

955
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:26,439
Speaker 2: Me and Owensborough, Kentucky. I think he's the top ten.

956
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:30,160
Speaker 2: He's a four star, top ten quarterback in the class

957
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:33,960
Speaker 2: for next year. So's it's not guarantee that'll go there,

958
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 2: but and the class over all looks great, so it's

959
00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:38,200
Speaker 2: heading to the right direction. Vedrol has been better than

960
00:46:38,200 --> 00:46:41,040
Speaker 2: some of the quarterbacks that they've had with Artsakowski and

961
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:45,719
Speaker 2: some of those clowns, but it's still the position that's

962
00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:47,719
Speaker 2: going to hold them back until they get, you know,

963
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:50,680
Speaker 2: one of these big quarterback recruits that sticks, and they

964
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:53,040
Speaker 2: might have one on the way. All right, let's move

965
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:55,200
Speaker 2: over to the west the way that I kind of

966
00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:58,760
Speaker 2: tier the west. The contenders are Wisconsin and Iowa. Next

967
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 2: tiers Minnesota, Northwestern Nebraska, and then kind of your men

968
00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:07,520
Speaker 2: are Purdue in Illinois. And there's not that much difference

969
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:09,200
Speaker 2: between the next and the man. This has been a

970
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:12,400
Speaker 2: division that has produced surprise winners over the past few years.

971
00:47:12,800 --> 00:47:14,480
Speaker 2: A lot of times it ends up being Northwestern. But

972
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 2: let's start at the top with Wisconsin and Iowa. Paul

973
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:23,960
Speaker 2: Chris back for year seven and Kirk Franz back for

974
00:47:24,080 --> 00:47:26,760
Speaker 2: year twenty three, I believe. So you have some coaches

975
00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:28,600
Speaker 2: that have been here for a while. Christens makes some

976
00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:32,359
Speaker 2: staff changes here and O hope the quarterback coach will

977
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 2: call plays. Hopefully they can just produce some more exposive plays.

978
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:38,359
Speaker 2: There are one hundred and twenty seventh in the nation

979
00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:40,239
Speaker 2: and thirty plus yard plays, but a lot of that

980
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 2: look they were crushed by COVID last year. Wisconsin and

981
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 2: Graham Mertz the core quarterback. Was he healthy? Know? How

982
00:47:48,239 --> 00:47:51,719
Speaker 2: much better will he be being healthy? That's a question

983
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 2: we have to answer. Iowa gets Petris back at quarterback.

984
00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 2: Both defenses should be very good. What do you see

985
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:02,879
Speaker 2: at the tip of the West division of the Big Ten.

986
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:05,279
Speaker 2: By the way, Iowa o over eight and a half

987
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:08,120
Speaker 2: minus one oh five and wisconstant over nine and a

988
00:48:08,200 --> 00:48:10,000
Speaker 2: half minus one twenty five.

989
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:13,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, Wisconsin, I make nine point nine, so over nine

990
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:15,440
Speaker 1: and a half is where the lean would be. And

991
00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:17,600
Speaker 1: then with Iowa, I'm actually a little bit under that

992
00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:21,560
Speaker 1: at seven point seven. And really that game, Iowa goes

993
00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 1: to visit Wisconsin, and really you have to you have

994
00:48:25,239 --> 00:48:27,479
Speaker 1: to ask yourself, do you believe are you just gonna

995
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:29,359
Speaker 1: read the stats and believe the stats that you saw

996
00:48:29,400 --> 00:48:31,759
Speaker 1: from Wisconsin last year, or are you gonna go look

997
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:34,320
Speaker 1: a little bit between the Lions and see how excellent

998
00:48:34,360 --> 00:48:36,720
Speaker 1: they were against Illinois and the opener, especially Graham Mertz

999
00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:40,120
Speaker 1: and then Covid played a factor. The offensive line, you know,

1000
00:48:40,440 --> 00:48:42,319
Speaker 1: had to deal with that. There was injuries in there,

1001
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:45,120
Speaker 1: especially to Graham Mertz, and that would explain why jalen

1002
00:48:45,160 --> 00:48:48,080
Speaker 1: Berger was, you know, averaging a mass ton of carry

1003
00:48:48,600 --> 00:48:52,239
Speaker 1: highlight yards and yards after contact and then you know,

1004
00:48:52,480 --> 00:48:55,120
Speaker 1: completely fell off the map. I believe he averaged over

1005
00:48:55,160 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 1: five point one three yards after contact against Michigan, and

1006
00:48:57,640 --> 00:49:00,360
Speaker 1: that number came down when the offensive line are to

1007
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:03,200
Speaker 1: get their tolls. So you know, Burger has the bursts

1008
00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:06,319
Speaker 1: and Mertz has the arm. But I think if you

1009
00:49:06,400 --> 00:49:09,040
Speaker 1: just purely stare at the stats from last season, you'd think, oh,

1010
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:11,480
Speaker 1: Wisconsint fell off a cliff. They they must be having

1011
00:49:11,480 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 1: some regression and they're going to come back to the pack.

1012
00:49:13,680 --> 00:49:16,160
Speaker 1: I kind of think the opposite. I think COVID, everything

1013
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:17,560
Speaker 1: they had to do with the you know, with with

1014
00:49:17,640 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 1: the college football in general and life in general, with

1015
00:49:19,760 --> 00:49:23,120
Speaker 1: the pandemic, everything just kind of piled on top of Wisconsin.

1016
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:26,239
Speaker 1: And you know, when making the Duke's Male Bowl was

1017
00:49:26,280 --> 00:49:28,640
Speaker 1: a really big deal with them, and I think they

1018
00:49:28,680 --> 00:49:30,480
Speaker 1: they overcame a lot of stuff off the field and

1019
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:32,560
Speaker 1: it showed and how much they loved being at Duke's

1020
00:49:32,560 --> 00:49:36,080
Speaker 1: Mayo Bowl and celebrating after the wins. So, you know,

1021
00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:36,759
Speaker 1: with the exception of.

1022
00:49:36,800 --> 00:49:39,080
Speaker 2: Cornina and they have their their receivers were hurt too.

1023
00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:42,799
Speaker 2: Davis Empire, We're out here, those seniors and like this

1024
00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:44,480
Speaker 2: is and you could said the same when we get

1025
00:49:44,520 --> 00:49:47,800
Speaker 2: to Iowa. This is a development team that's well coached,

1026
00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:52,239
Speaker 2: have a coach that's been there forever. They're development team, right,

1027
00:49:52,280 --> 00:49:57,040
Speaker 2: they value the spring, they value developing players and having

1028
00:49:57,040 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 2: players there for a long time. They missed that last year.

1029
00:49:59,480 --> 00:50:01,960
Speaker 2: And then case of Iowa, you know, you saw them

1030
00:50:02,040 --> 00:50:03,200
Speaker 2: really come on strong at the end of the year.

1031
00:50:03,200 --> 00:50:05,160
Speaker 2: I think they won six straight to close close, dear,

1032
00:50:05,160 --> 00:50:06,960
Speaker 2: but head get back to the Badgers.

1033
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:10,680
Speaker 1: Well, I think the I think the difference between the

1034
00:50:11,440 --> 00:50:15,239
Speaker 1: love for Wisconsin versus I like Iowa they're in the

1035
00:50:15,239 --> 00:50:19,120
Speaker 1: friendship zone is the fact that you know, Wisconsin loses

1036
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:21,920
Speaker 1: just you know, one player, Rashad Wildgoose going to the Bills.

1037
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:27,480
Speaker 1: Besides that, Wisconsin's defense remains completely intact, you know, over

1038
00:50:27,520 --> 00:50:29,919
Speaker 1: eighty three percent. And this is you know, a unit

1039
00:50:29,960 --> 00:50:31,960
Speaker 1: that is very high in success for a year in and

1040
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:33,799
Speaker 1: year out, even last year. I mean they carried the

1041
00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:37,000
Speaker 1: water for Wisconsin last year. The offense couldn't couldn't move

1042
00:50:37,040 --> 00:50:39,239
Speaker 1: the chains for anything. So but when you pivot over

1043
00:50:39,280 --> 00:50:42,680
Speaker 1: to Iowa, it's a different story. Right, We've lost a

1044
00:50:42,719 --> 00:50:45,400
Speaker 1: lot in the front seven for a team that is

1045
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 1: generally defensive based. They're good in every unit, but they

1046
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:50,200
Speaker 1: do lose a lot in the front seven, and that

1047
00:50:50,239 --> 00:50:52,800
Speaker 1: makes me a little bit nervous. I do love Spencer

1048
00:50:52,840 --> 00:50:56,880
Speaker 1: Petros as a quarterback. I mean absolutely the guy you

1049
00:50:56,880 --> 00:50:59,279
Speaker 1: know your turns for his sophomore season. He has a

1050
00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:02,719
Speaker 1: huge arm. I'm not sure Iowa has the explosive playmakers

1051
00:51:02,760 --> 00:51:05,799
Speaker 1: on the outside to make the big plays for him.

1052
00:51:05,880 --> 00:51:08,080
Speaker 1: Now that they have lost some of their top targets,

1053
00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:11,480
Speaker 1: you know, the tight ends will be good. He'll be supported.

1054
00:51:11,520 --> 00:51:13,719
Speaker 1: Petris will be supported by two other sophomore running back

1055
00:51:13,760 --> 00:51:16,800
Speaker 1: Tyler Goodson and tight end Samuel Porter. But they lose

1056
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:20,920
Speaker 1: some key players on offense and Spencer Petris may take

1057
00:51:20,960 --> 00:51:23,560
Speaker 1: the next step and he's definitely got a cannon for

1058
00:51:23,600 --> 00:51:25,239
Speaker 1: an arm, But who's going to be there to catch

1059
00:51:25,280 --> 00:51:28,839
Speaker 1: these twenty plus yard passes his quarterback rating? I think

1060
00:51:28,880 --> 00:51:33,479
Speaker 1: what else is interesting is when you're handicapping Iowa this year.

1061
00:51:33,840 --> 00:51:36,759
Speaker 1: I won't get too deep into it, but Spencer Petris

1062
00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:42,160
Speaker 1: on deep right corner past twenty yards was impeccable, flawless.

1063
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:45,799
Speaker 1: He couldn't hit his blind side past twenty yards, He

1064
00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:48,960
Speaker 1: couldn't hit in between the hashes. All four touchdowns that

1065
00:51:48,960 --> 00:51:52,400
Speaker 1: were exposed to plays came deep right zone. And the

1066
00:51:52,440 --> 00:51:54,440
Speaker 1: reason why I mentioned that is there are teams that

1067
00:51:54,480 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 1: have shut down corners that play on either you know,

1068
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:58,080
Speaker 1: one side of the field and that's all they play.

1069
00:51:58,360 --> 00:52:00,239
Speaker 1: So keep that in mind when you're handicapping eye IA

1070
00:52:00,320 --> 00:52:02,920
Speaker 1: individual games. Take a look at their corners and specifically

1071
00:52:02,920 --> 00:52:04,360
Speaker 1: look who plays on the right side of the field.

1072
00:52:04,360 --> 00:52:08,480
Speaker 1: Because Petris's number on the right was fantastic. So, like

1073
00:52:08,520 --> 00:52:10,920
Speaker 1: I said about the defense, you know, they were twelve

1074
00:52:10,960 --> 00:52:13,720
Speaker 1: in coverage ranking and pff I expect that to continue

1075
00:52:13,719 --> 00:52:16,200
Speaker 1: because that's just how they coach their teams. They were

1076
00:52:16,200 --> 00:52:18,880
Speaker 1: top five national rank and defensive EPA. They keep everything

1077
00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:20,440
Speaker 1: in front of you so you can't get really some

1078
00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:22,560
Speaker 1: big bombs on them. And the beef of the defensive

1079
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:25,360
Speaker 1: front seven has moved on. Like I said, Johnson Goldson, Nickneman,

1080
00:52:26,080 --> 00:52:28,600
Speaker 1: those are big losses for me. So I am on

1081
00:52:28,640 --> 00:52:30,840
Speaker 1: the Iowa under I don't think they beat Wisconsin for

1082
00:52:30,880 --> 00:52:33,680
Speaker 1: the division. You know, I still think that they're going

1083
00:52:33,719 --> 00:52:36,400
Speaker 1: to be fantastic against some of their other teams. I

1084
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:39,400
Speaker 1: put them above you know, Indiana, I put them above

1085
00:52:40,200 --> 00:52:42,040
Speaker 1: you know some of the teams on their schedule from

1086
00:52:42,080 --> 00:52:44,439
Speaker 1: Iowa State to Wisconsin to Penn State. I think Iowa

1087
00:52:44,520 --> 00:52:45,759
Speaker 1: is going to do some damage here. It's not going

1088
00:52:45,800 --> 00:52:46,719
Speaker 1: to be against Wisconsin.

1089
00:52:47,840 --> 00:52:49,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Wisconsin has all their tough games at home.

1090
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:53,080
Speaker 2: I mean Wisconsin's road games this year at Illinois, they're

1091
00:52:53,080 --> 00:52:56,400
Speaker 2: true road games at Illinois, at Purdue, at Rutgers, and

1092
00:52:56,480 --> 00:53:00,640
Speaker 2: at Minnesota. That is it. They have four true games.

1093
00:53:00,960 --> 00:53:04,239
Speaker 2: Now they also play Notre Dame in Chicago, but that's

1094
00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:05,919
Speaker 2: their four true road games. They get all their tough

1095
00:53:05,920 --> 00:53:08,680
Speaker 2: games at home. I mean, if I want to kind

1096
00:53:08,680 --> 00:53:10,839
Speaker 2: of if I wanted to talut for Iowa, they only

1097
00:53:10,880 --> 00:53:13,600
Speaker 2: had six practices last year. They're the fifth youngest team

1098
00:53:13,680 --> 00:53:15,960
Speaker 2: and they almost went undefeated. They lost their final six.

1099
00:53:16,160 --> 00:53:18,120
Speaker 2: There are only two losses were by five total points

1100
00:53:18,160 --> 00:53:21,760
Speaker 2: and they blew leads late. But it's a tough schedule.

1101
00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:24,319
Speaker 2: This year they get they get Indiana and Penn State

1102
00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:26,720
Speaker 2: out of the East, and they play at Wisconsin, which

1103
00:53:26,760 --> 00:53:29,640
Speaker 2: is what I think is going to ultimately decide this division.

1104
00:53:29,719 --> 00:53:31,879
Speaker 2: The defense, they did lose a lot in the front

1105
00:53:31,920 --> 00:53:34,920
Speaker 2: seven either. They were so young. They've gone twenty two

1106
00:53:34,920 --> 00:53:36,960
Speaker 2: straight games. By the way, I line twenty five points

1107
00:53:37,080 --> 00:53:40,480
Speaker 2: or fewer. That's the longest current streaking FBS. I do

1108
00:53:40,520 --> 00:53:42,719
Speaker 2: have also questions about the offensive line. They've lost a

1109
00:53:42,719 --> 00:53:44,759
Speaker 2: lot on the offensive line over the past years. Now,

1110
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:46,319
Speaker 2: I know Lindar Bounds one of the best centers in

1111
00:53:46,320 --> 00:53:49,440
Speaker 2: the country, and Farrence usually just gets he was an

1112
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:51,279
Speaker 2: ex NFL, he was an next offensive line coach in

1113
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 2: the NFL. He usually just gets these guys up to

1114
00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:56,480
Speaker 2: speed and fines offensive lineman. But I don't know if

1115
00:53:56,480 --> 00:53:58,040
Speaker 2: the offensive line is going to be as good as

1116
00:53:58,040 --> 00:54:00,799
Speaker 2: it has been in recent years. They lost some talent

1117
00:54:00,840 --> 00:54:03,400
Speaker 2: on the outside as well. I'm a little higher on

1118
00:54:03,480 --> 00:54:07,359
Speaker 2: eyeer than you, but not for an overplay. I have

1119
00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:11,920
Speaker 2: a play on the division that I'll get to later on.

1120
00:54:12,040 --> 00:54:15,040
Speaker 2: Let's get to the second tier in the west, Minnesota

1121
00:54:15,120 --> 00:54:19,719
Speaker 2: Northwestern and Nebraska Northwestern over six and a half minus

1122
00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:24,279
Speaker 2: one oh five. It's too high for me, way too

1123
00:54:24,400 --> 00:54:27,520
Speaker 2: high for me. But I don't want any part of

1124
00:54:27,560 --> 00:54:31,399
Speaker 2: the under Maybe I'll find a way to play against them.

1125
00:54:31,480 --> 00:54:34,200
Speaker 2: And Pat Fitzgerald in year sixteen. That makes me feel

1126
00:54:34,200 --> 00:54:37,000
Speaker 2: old that he's been there for sixteen years, just signed

1127
00:54:37,040 --> 00:54:39,319
Speaker 2: a ten year contract, I believe. But they've lost a

1128
00:54:39,360 --> 00:54:41,880
Speaker 2: ton they lost as much as anybody in the country.

1129
00:54:41,920 --> 00:54:45,160
Speaker 2: Is one of the lowest returning productions in the nation.

1130
00:54:45,239 --> 00:54:47,920
Speaker 2: But this is the team that just always overperforms. They

1131
00:54:48,000 --> 00:54:51,560
Speaker 2: just find ways to voodoo a couple games. So I'm

1132
00:54:51,560 --> 00:54:53,560
Speaker 2: not tying up my money on a Northwestern under even

1133
00:54:53,600 --> 00:54:55,480
Speaker 2: though I like it. But they have a lot of

1134
00:54:55,600 --> 00:54:58,239
Speaker 2: questions on both sides of the ball. They were the

1135
00:54:58,320 --> 00:55:01,359
Speaker 2: number two most experienced team year and they lose a ton.

1136
00:55:01,400 --> 00:55:03,799
Speaker 2: I mean, he lose two of the three Irish law

1137
00:55:03,840 --> 00:55:06,839
Speaker 2: firm linebackers, lose your top four wide receivers. I mean,

1138
00:55:06,840 --> 00:55:09,040
Speaker 2: it goes on and on and on. They do avoid

1139
00:55:09,080 --> 00:55:10,399
Speaker 2: the top three out of the East, and they get

1140
00:55:10,400 --> 00:55:12,520
Speaker 2: Iowa at home. It's one of the reasons you're seeing

1141
00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:14,239
Speaker 2: six and a half out there. But I have a

1142
00:55:14,280 --> 00:55:16,399
Speaker 2: lot of questions about this Northwestern team, but they find

1143
00:55:16,440 --> 00:55:21,280
Speaker 2: ways the ugly up games and win. Talking about Nebraska,

1144
00:55:21,560 --> 00:55:26,240
Speaker 2: Scott Frost questions about this offense. Adrian Martinez in this offense,

1145
00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:30,160
Speaker 2: and Scott Frost find it maybe there's a resurrection with

1146
00:55:30,200 --> 00:55:32,680
Speaker 2: the Black Shirt d there's some potential on this defense.

1147
00:55:32,719 --> 00:55:37,840
Speaker 2: Over six minus one twenty for Nebraska, and finally in

1148
00:55:37,920 --> 00:55:42,200
Speaker 2: that kind of second tier in the West Minnesota over

1149
00:55:42,360 --> 00:55:47,040
Speaker 2: seven minus won ten PJ. Fleck. Can he row the

1150
00:55:47,120 --> 00:55:52,720
Speaker 2: boat with the Gophers? Tanner Morgan is back. Morgan didn't

1151
00:55:52,760 --> 00:55:55,439
Speaker 2: have a great year in twenty twenty. They've lost some

1152
00:55:55,560 --> 00:55:57,359
Speaker 2: a lot of talent at the wide receiver position over

1153
00:55:57,400 --> 00:56:01,760
Speaker 2: the past two years. Lots of questions for Minnesota as well.

1154
00:56:02,320 --> 00:56:06,520
Speaker 2: So this is this is a very interesting tier in

1155
00:56:06,520 --> 00:56:09,960
Speaker 2: the west to me of Minnesota, Northwest Nebraska because I've

1156
00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:12,919
Speaker 2: heard interesting cases of people being high and low on

1157
00:56:13,320 --> 00:56:15,480
Speaker 2: each of them. So where do you stand ticket where

1158
00:56:15,480 --> 00:56:15,880
Speaker 2: you want to go?

1159
00:56:16,239 --> 00:56:18,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't like any of these three teams, but

1160
00:56:18,440 --> 00:56:20,279
Speaker 1: you know, I think two of them are actionable. One

1161
00:56:20,280 --> 00:56:22,440
Speaker 1: of them's a stay away from me, and I'll start

1162
00:56:22,480 --> 00:56:24,440
Speaker 1: with Northwestern at six and a half. I mean, this

1163
00:56:24,520 --> 00:56:26,279
Speaker 1: is a projection that I make at four point four.

1164
00:56:26,360 --> 00:56:29,960
Speaker 1: But oh, does Pat Fitzgerald like to make me look

1165
00:56:30,040 --> 00:56:32,080
Speaker 1: bad and take money out of my pocket every time

1166
00:56:32,080 --> 00:56:35,360
Speaker 1: you count these guys out. Fitzgerald's got something up his pocket.

1167
00:56:35,840 --> 00:56:38,840
Speaker 1: And you know, I think what's interesting about this offense

1168
00:56:38,920 --> 00:56:40,719
Speaker 1: is they're going from a dink and dunk style with

1169
00:56:40,760 --> 00:56:43,520
Speaker 1: Peyton Ramsey to an extreme dink and dunk style with

1170
00:56:43,640 --> 00:56:47,080
Speaker 1: Ryan Helenski. The South Carolina Import had just six snaps

1171
00:56:47,120 --> 00:56:49,040
Speaker 1: last year. But if you go back to twenty nineteen,

1172
00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:52,600
Speaker 1: two hundred and thirty six pass completions, only forty of

1173
00:56:52,600 --> 00:56:55,200
Speaker 1: them went longer than nine yards. I will repeat that

1174
00:56:55,239 --> 00:56:58,240
Speaker 1: because when I read this like this can't be true.

1175
00:56:58,520 --> 00:57:01,360
Speaker 1: Two hundred and thirty six pass completions in twenty nineteen,

1176
00:57:01,800 --> 00:57:04,680
Speaker 1: forty of them were longer than nine yards. The top

1177
00:57:04,680 --> 00:57:07,160
Speaker 1: four targets from twenty twenty have moved on from Northwestern,

1178
00:57:07,239 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 1: and the offensive front that ranked one hundred and twentieth

1179
00:57:09,160 --> 00:57:12,200
Speaker 1: in the line yards is still there, and Northwestern has

1180
00:57:12,760 --> 00:57:15,360
Speaker 1: twenty eight percent returning on offense. So it's just not

1181
00:57:15,440 --> 00:57:17,000
Speaker 1: a good look for me. Right, even if you have

1182
00:57:17,120 --> 00:57:19,680
Speaker 1: explosive players, which they don't, even if you had your

1183
00:57:19,720 --> 00:57:22,840
Speaker 1: offensive line there, which you don't, you have a quarterback

1184
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:26,439
Speaker 1: never throws it fast nine yards down the field. Big

1185
00:57:26,480 --> 00:57:28,960
Speaker 1: problem if you look at the defense, I mean that

1186
00:57:29,000 --> 00:57:31,680
Speaker 1: was the MVP of twenty twenty, right, you know the

1187
00:57:31,840 --> 00:57:34,720
Speaker 1: leading Havoc players Patty Fisher gone, key pieces from one

1188
00:57:34,720 --> 00:57:38,040
Speaker 1: of the best secondaries, also had their college clock expire.

1189
00:57:38,800 --> 00:57:41,320
Speaker 1: They have a TARP of fifty percent. That's transfer activity,

1190
00:57:41,320 --> 00:57:44,560
Speaker 1: which during production combined. You know, the national average is

1191
00:57:44,600 --> 00:57:46,800
Speaker 1: seventy seven percent. They're down at fifty. I mean, that's

1192
00:57:46,840 --> 00:57:50,360
Speaker 1: a huge problem in the in the year that's going

1193
00:57:50,400 --> 00:57:53,280
Speaker 1: to be called the super Senior. So Wildcat should regress

1194
00:57:53,280 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 1: from a finishing drives rank of second and the success

1195
00:57:55,440 --> 00:57:58,280
Speaker 1: rate of twentieth. And you know, it's just not I

1196
00:57:58,280 --> 00:58:01,280
Speaker 1: don't see the wins getting to evan here on the schedule.

1197
00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:05,160
Speaker 1: We've been fooled by Northwestern before. But there's a lot

1198
00:58:05,160 --> 00:58:06,919
Speaker 1: of reasons why we knock them down a power rating

1199
00:58:06,960 --> 00:58:10,040
Speaker 1: from second order win total, you know, just not just

1200
00:58:10,080 --> 00:58:14,120
Speaker 1: the returning experience Indiana State. This is the only win

1201
00:58:14,160 --> 00:58:16,360
Speaker 1: on the schedule. I mean, the only clear cut win

1202
00:58:17,120 --> 00:58:20,720
Speaker 1: is Duke going to come back from the depths Ohio

1203
00:58:20,840 --> 00:58:23,640
Speaker 1: and Rutgers. You know, Northwestern will be no greater than

1204
00:58:23,640 --> 00:58:26,600
Speaker 1: a touchdown against those two teams. I would rather catch

1205
00:58:26,600 --> 00:58:28,200
Speaker 1: Ohio in the first game of the season than later

1206
00:58:28,240 --> 00:58:31,120
Speaker 1: on after they find an identity. But you know, Rutgers

1207
00:58:31,200 --> 00:58:33,280
Speaker 1: is a team on the rise with Shiano. So the

1208
00:58:33,360 --> 00:58:37,200
Speaker 1: Wildcats will be underdogs in their final six games. They

1209
00:58:37,240 --> 00:58:39,960
Speaker 1: will be underdogs, clearcut underdogs. So I don't understand this

1210
00:58:40,000 --> 00:58:45,600
Speaker 1: win total of six and a half when you actually yeah,

1211
00:58:46,240 --> 00:58:47,560
Speaker 1: and so if you go six and oh in the

1212
00:58:47,560 --> 00:58:49,400
Speaker 1: first half, you're still going under six and a half.

1213
00:58:49,400 --> 00:58:50,960
Speaker 1: So under six and a half, I'd played all the

1214
00:58:51,000 --> 00:58:52,920
Speaker 1: way down to five and a half. I don't think

1215
00:58:52,960 --> 00:58:54,880
Speaker 1: there's getting enough attention. And I think people are still

1216
00:58:54,880 --> 00:58:57,160
Speaker 1: in love with players that have left. And the Ryan

1217
00:58:57,200 --> 00:59:01,560
Speaker 1: Alensky thing that amazing. But you know, Nebraska is a

1218
00:59:01,600 --> 00:59:03,920
Speaker 1: thing where I'm not going to get deep into the stats.

1219
00:59:04,320 --> 00:59:06,480
Speaker 1: This is really a thing where on two sides of

1220
00:59:06,520 --> 00:59:09,400
Speaker 1: the ball, Adrian Martinez is still playing quarterback and he

1221
00:59:09,440 --> 00:59:11,600
Speaker 1: has not resolved his issues with turning the ball over,

1222
00:59:11,880 --> 00:59:13,960
Speaker 1: and Eric Schanander is still calling a three to four

1223
00:59:14,000 --> 00:59:18,160
Speaker 1: boomer Bus defense where they can't get stops, they try

1224
00:59:18,560 --> 00:59:21,600
Speaker 1: to blitz and make big plays happen. They have increased

1225
00:59:21,600 --> 00:59:24,840
Speaker 1: their success rate, they have a better defense. They have

1226
00:59:24,960 --> 00:59:27,040
Speaker 1: players in the secondary, and they have players in the

1227
00:59:27,080 --> 00:59:31,360
Speaker 1: front seven. But the style of defense worked at Central

1228
00:59:31,400 --> 00:59:34,200
Speaker 1: Florida against group of five teams, it is not translated

1229
00:59:34,240 --> 00:59:36,800
Speaker 1: at Nebraska whatsoever. You can hold your opponents and you

1230
00:59:36,800 --> 00:59:38,840
Speaker 1: can get stops, you can get some third down stops,

1231
00:59:38,880 --> 00:59:41,640
Speaker 1: but they still give up some explosive plays in the

1232
00:59:41,680 --> 00:59:43,680
Speaker 1: long run, when they're playing in Ohio, states of the world,

1233
00:59:43,720 --> 00:59:47,040
Speaker 1: anybody with explosive players, it just hasn't worked. So Nebraska

1234
00:59:47,160 --> 00:59:49,960
Speaker 1: is not a team that I'm aiming to bet on whatsoever.

1235
00:59:50,200 --> 00:59:52,080
Speaker 1: And then we get to Minnesota, a team that you know,

1236
00:59:52,120 --> 00:59:54,960
Speaker 1: I'm not going to play against. The Gophers over seven

1237
00:59:55,040 --> 00:59:57,160
Speaker 1: minus one ten. I mean, they had a defensive dip

1238
00:59:57,280 --> 01:00:00,000
Speaker 1: for the ages in twenty twenty. They ranked a hundred

1239
01:00:00,120 --> 01:00:02,920
Speaker 1: twenty third success rate in one hundred and seventeenth in

1240
01:00:03,080 --> 01:00:05,200
Speaker 1: havoc on defense. I mean, this is not the Minnesota

1241
01:00:05,240 --> 01:00:06,760
Speaker 1: defense from a couple of years ago. And now they

1242
01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:09,760
Speaker 1: return eighty seven percent of that unit. So are they

1243
01:00:09,800 --> 01:00:13,880
Speaker 1: going to improve? I mean there has to be. All

1244
01:00:13,880 --> 01:00:15,960
Speaker 1: these numbers are outside the top one hundred sac rate

1245
01:00:16,040 --> 01:00:20,760
Speaker 1: lineyards just eighteen tackles for loss, Like they couldn't even

1246
01:00:20,800 --> 01:00:23,720
Speaker 1: accidentally get into the backfield of their opponents last year.

1247
01:00:23,800 --> 01:00:27,120
Speaker 1: So you know, of the top tackles from twenty twenty

1248
01:00:27,120 --> 01:00:30,520
Speaker 1: fifteen of sixteen return is that a good thing? I Mean,

1249
01:00:30,520 --> 01:00:32,720
Speaker 1: that's one thing that I just don't understand, is like, yeah,

1250
01:00:32,720 --> 01:00:34,520
Speaker 1: we we return a lot, but you didn't get a

1251
01:00:34,560 --> 01:00:36,600
Speaker 1: lot out of these guys last year and you know,

1252
01:00:36,720 --> 01:00:38,800
Speaker 1: Joe Rossi is a defensive coordinator. He took over the

1253
01:00:38,840 --> 01:00:41,480
Speaker 1: role in twenty eighteen as an interim before he took

1254
01:00:41,480 --> 01:00:43,600
Speaker 1: the role full time in twenty nineteen. And Rossie was

1255
01:00:43,680 --> 01:00:47,120
Speaker 1: given a one year extension this past May. It is

1256
01:00:47,200 --> 01:00:49,040
Speaker 1: a head scratcher to me. I don't know how you

1257
01:00:49,080 --> 01:00:51,360
Speaker 1: could do your job more poorly and get extended for

1258
01:00:51,400 --> 01:00:56,080
Speaker 1: another year. It's PJ flex program. So from an offensive perspective,

1259
01:00:56,120 --> 01:00:59,680
Speaker 1: you know, the Gophers dipped with transition from Kirk Saraka

1260
01:00:59,720 --> 01:01:03,240
Speaker 1: to my Sanford junior. That was predictable. We said that

1261
01:01:03,360 --> 01:01:07,040
Speaker 1: last year. Mike Sandford Junior not a guy to bet on.

1262
01:01:07,160 --> 01:01:09,520
Speaker 1: We have said that for years. Why he was a

1263
01:01:09,520 --> 01:01:11,120
Speaker 1: part of the Notre Dame staff for a couple of

1264
01:01:11,160 --> 01:01:13,080
Speaker 1: years where they went all the way down to four

1265
01:01:13,080 --> 01:01:16,240
Speaker 1: and eight. After that he went to Western Kentucky. He

1266
01:01:16,360 --> 01:01:18,920
Speaker 1: was barely there long enough to you know, to make

1267
01:01:19,000 --> 01:01:21,040
Speaker 1: enough money to pay his rent. He had one year

1268
01:01:21,040 --> 01:01:23,160
Speaker 1: in Utah State. It was their worst year that they

1269
01:01:23,200 --> 01:01:25,920
Speaker 1: had after you know, all the Jordan love and the

1270
01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:28,760
Speaker 1: CHUCKI Keatons and all the success Utah State had not

1271
01:01:28,840 --> 01:01:31,400
Speaker 1: there when Mike Sanford was there. Everywhere he has gone

1272
01:01:31,640 --> 01:01:33,560
Speaker 1: and this is not. I mean, I'm not going to

1273
01:01:33,600 --> 01:01:34,960
Speaker 1: go deep into the stats. I'll save it for the

1274
01:01:35,040 --> 01:01:38,000
Speaker 1: ride up on Action Network. Everywhere Mike Sanford Junior has

1275
01:01:38,000 --> 01:01:40,840
Speaker 1: gone as an offensive mind, the success rate has taken

1276
01:01:40,880 --> 01:01:43,760
Speaker 1: a massive dip, the explosiveness has taken a massive dip.

1277
01:01:44,120 --> 01:01:46,600
Speaker 1: He is not getting it done as an offensive coordinator.

1278
01:01:46,800 --> 01:01:49,280
Speaker 1: And for that reason, Minnesota is going to be one dimensional.

1279
01:01:49,440 --> 01:01:54,280
Speaker 1: Mohammed Ebram returns. You know, offensive line is massive, He'll

1280
01:01:54,320 --> 01:01:56,480
Speaker 1: get an offensive line is massive. They're going to run

1281
01:01:56,520 --> 01:01:58,919
Speaker 1: the balls. So you look around, who can we beat? Well,

1282
01:01:58,960 --> 01:02:01,440
Speaker 1: Minnesota can give Eye problems because the front seven is

1283
01:02:01,440 --> 01:02:03,960
Speaker 1: missing out a little bit. You can give anybody that's

1284
01:02:03,960 --> 01:02:07,280
Speaker 1: missing some defensive front seven some problems with You can't

1285
01:02:07,280 --> 01:02:10,040
Speaker 1: beat everybody with just this one single game plan of

1286
01:02:10,120 --> 01:02:12,520
Speaker 1: one dimensional running. And Mike Sanford Junior just ain't gonna

1287
01:02:12,520 --> 01:02:16,280
Speaker 1: get it done from a passing perspective. So I'm out

1288
01:02:16,320 --> 01:02:18,800
Speaker 1: on Minnesota. You know, I mean, the projected wintal was

1289
01:02:18,840 --> 01:02:22,120
Speaker 1: seven point six. Mathematically says I shouldn't be playing this.

1290
01:02:22,760 --> 01:02:24,880
Speaker 1: But I don't like Mike Sanford Junior, and I don't

1291
01:02:24,960 --> 01:02:26,880
Speaker 1: like the offense, and I don't like what they don't return,

1292
01:02:26,920 --> 01:02:29,560
Speaker 1: and Joe Rossie getting a one year extension makes zero

1293
01:02:29,880 --> 01:02:31,840
Speaker 1: sense to me, So prove me wrong.

1294
01:02:31,960 --> 01:02:32,200
Speaker 2: PJ.

1295
01:02:32,320 --> 01:02:34,280
Speaker 1: Fleck, take my money out of my pocket. But I'm

1296
01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:37,240
Speaker 1: not taking the over here, and I'm strongly considering taking

1297
01:02:37,240 --> 01:02:38,960
Speaker 1: it over. I am going to play an under here.

1298
01:02:39,120 --> 01:02:41,120
Speaker 1: I don't like Mike Sanford Junior. He's been a money

1299
01:02:41,120 --> 01:02:42,840
Speaker 1: maker in a pass by fading him, so I'm gonna

1300
01:02:42,840 --> 01:02:43,240
Speaker 1: do it again.

1301
01:02:44,720 --> 01:02:46,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're an interesting team last year and that they

1302
01:02:46,640 --> 01:02:48,960
Speaker 2: lost two games in overtime because of miss kicks. So

1303
01:02:49,000 --> 01:02:51,080
Speaker 2: they did bring in tricket from Kent State, which would

1304
01:02:51,120 --> 01:02:55,000
Speaker 2: help their kicking game. But their opponents went five of

1305
01:02:55,160 --> 01:02:58,920
Speaker 2: fourteen on field goals, which was the third lowest and FBS.

1306
01:02:59,160 --> 01:03:03,040
Speaker 2: And they should have lost to Purdue on that ridiculous

1307
01:03:03,120 --> 01:03:06,440
Speaker 2: PI and the offensive PI call that they called in

1308
01:03:06,480 --> 01:03:10,640
Speaker 2: that game. They should have lost that game. It allowed

1309
01:03:10,680 --> 01:03:13,520
Speaker 2: six point three yards per carry last year. Yikes. They

1310
01:03:13,520 --> 01:03:16,120
Speaker 2: did simplify the d late and it got a little better,

1311
01:03:16,160 --> 01:03:18,480
Speaker 2: but there's a lot of questions on this defense. You're right,

1312
01:03:18,480 --> 01:03:25,160
Speaker 2: they got no tackles for loss, just nothing in the backfield. Yeah,

1313
01:03:25,160 --> 01:03:27,760
Speaker 2: tackle for lost percentage dead last in the nation, dead last.

1314
01:03:27,800 --> 01:03:29,800
Speaker 1: Ye Oh yeah. I mean that is something to mention.

1315
01:03:29,880 --> 01:03:31,560
Speaker 1: And the year before that, I think there were one

1316
01:03:31,640 --> 01:03:33,160
Speaker 1: hundred and thirteenth, and then last year they went to

1317
01:03:33,200 --> 01:03:36,080
Speaker 1: dead last tackles for lost per game. It's just striking

1318
01:03:36,120 --> 01:03:37,760
Speaker 1: to me. The whole thing is striking to me. What's

1319
01:03:37,760 --> 01:03:40,320
Speaker 1: going on at Minnesota. I think one thing that we

1320
01:03:40,360 --> 01:03:42,480
Speaker 1: need to point out a big handicap of why I

1321
01:03:42,520 --> 01:03:44,640
Speaker 1: want to take the under is look at who they

1322
01:03:44,640 --> 01:03:47,360
Speaker 1: play on their schedule and will they be able to

1323
01:03:47,400 --> 01:03:50,320
Speaker 1: contain the Minnesota rushing attack. Miami of Ohio is a

1324
01:03:50,440 --> 01:03:53,960
Speaker 1: must win, but they have a top four front seven

1325
01:03:54,000 --> 01:03:57,360
Speaker 1: defense in the MAC. Colorado has the number one ranked

1326
01:03:57,400 --> 01:04:00,600
Speaker 1: linebackers in all of Pac twelve, and when you look

1327
01:04:00,640 --> 01:04:03,280
Speaker 1: at their cross division games, Maryland might not have the

1328
01:04:03,360 --> 01:04:06,480
Speaker 1: front seven to handle Minnesota Minnesota and get a win there,

1329
01:04:06,720 --> 01:04:09,120
Speaker 1: but Indiana has one of the best front sevens in

1330
01:04:09,200 --> 01:04:10,160
Speaker 1: all of the Big ten.

1331
01:04:10,360 --> 01:04:11,640
Speaker 2: So it's just not.

1332
01:04:11,680 --> 01:04:14,120
Speaker 1: A schedule where I think they're gonna be able to

1333
01:04:14,160 --> 01:04:15,960
Speaker 1: do a whole bunch of damage with this one dimensional

1334
01:04:16,040 --> 01:04:18,800
Speaker 1: offensive attack. Colorado. I mean, that's a sneaky play with

1335
01:04:18,840 --> 01:04:21,479
Speaker 1: Colorado and their linebackers. Miami, Ohio has a good front

1336
01:04:21,480 --> 01:04:23,920
Speaker 1: seven for who they are Indiana, You're just you're not

1337
01:04:23,920 --> 01:04:26,360
Speaker 1: gonna be able to run on Indiana's front seven. So yeah,

1338
01:04:26,440 --> 01:04:27,080
Speaker 1: under here for me.

1339
01:04:28,480 --> 01:04:31,360
Speaker 2: Let's move on to the final two teams in the West.

1340
01:04:31,400 --> 01:04:34,240
Speaker 2: We'll start with Purdue. Purdue over five minus one twenty

1341
01:04:34,400 --> 01:04:37,880
Speaker 2: Jeff brom year five, six and twelve. The past years,

1342
01:04:37,880 --> 01:04:40,440
Speaker 2: at least they were in every game. Last year they

1343
01:04:40,440 --> 01:04:43,840
Speaker 2: were robbed against Minnesota new defensive coordinator for the third

1344
01:04:43,880 --> 01:04:46,840
Speaker 2: straight year. My question, they want to be more aggressive.

1345
01:04:46,880 --> 01:04:49,760
Speaker 2: I mean last year five sacks for the whole year,

1346
01:04:50,000 --> 01:04:52,400
Speaker 2: five sacks, one hundred and twenty fifth and stack ray

1347
01:04:52,480 --> 01:04:55,440
Speaker 2: on the one hundred and twenty third and explosive play

1348
01:04:55,760 --> 01:05:00,200
Speaker 2: rate allowed. The offense also has no explosiveness, so you

1349
01:05:00,200 --> 01:05:02,240
Speaker 2: know you're gonna get They have both their quarterbacks who

1350
01:05:02,240 --> 01:05:05,080
Speaker 2: split time coming back this year in Aidan O'Connell and

1351
01:05:05,160 --> 01:05:09,280
Speaker 2: Jack Plumber, and they're gonna be throwing to David Bell,

1352
01:05:09,320 --> 01:05:11,480
Speaker 2: who's excellent, and they're gonna have to throw it to

1353
01:05:11,560 --> 01:05:14,160
Speaker 2: him fifty times. They get down and score a touchdown,

1354
01:05:14,200 --> 01:05:15,960
Speaker 2: they just keep throwing for eight and then on third

1355
01:05:16,000 --> 01:05:17,920
Speaker 2: times you have to keep completing. You can't have any mistakes,

1356
01:05:18,240 --> 01:05:21,960
Speaker 2: no exposedness in offense, new defensive coordinator, new defensive staff.

1357
01:05:22,000 --> 01:05:24,479
Speaker 2: They want to get more aggressive, that's what they're saying,

1358
01:05:24,480 --> 01:05:26,720
Speaker 2: and they need to. They implemented a four to three

1359
01:05:26,720 --> 01:05:30,120
Speaker 2: in spring, so there's some defensive changes. They're gonna bring

1360
01:05:30,120 --> 01:05:33,440
Speaker 2: in some transfers to try to help that defense. Just

1361
01:05:33,480 --> 01:05:35,840
Speaker 2: this team overall, it just seems kind of soft. I

1362
01:05:35,840 --> 01:05:37,720
Speaker 2: don't know what their identity is. I mean, is their

1363
01:05:37,760 --> 01:05:44,000
Speaker 2: identity short passes and like I think, and they have

1364
01:05:44,080 --> 01:05:47,640
Speaker 2: five brutal, brutal, brutal road games. You know, you're at

1365
01:05:47,720 --> 01:05:52,520
Speaker 2: Notre Dame, You're at Iowa, you have Wisconsin at home,

1366
01:05:52,520 --> 01:05:55,400
Speaker 2: which was probably lost. You're at Ohio State, so you're

1367
01:05:55,400 --> 01:05:58,880
Speaker 2: talking about a ceiling of probably seven. If everything goes right,

1368
01:06:00,080 --> 01:06:02,600
Speaker 2: better beat out Oregon State and then win at Connecticut

1369
01:06:02,640 --> 01:06:04,680
Speaker 2: to start off to and O. But I think if

1370
01:06:04,680 --> 01:06:08,120
Speaker 2: everything goes right, you're most likely looking at a team

1371
01:06:08,160 --> 01:06:14,640
Speaker 2: that has five wins heading into the finale at home

1372
01:06:14,640 --> 01:06:21,560
Speaker 2: against Indiana. So you know, this is a team that

1373
01:06:22,160 --> 01:06:24,600
Speaker 2: has a lot of questions on defense. I did their

1374
01:06:24,680 --> 01:06:27,080
Speaker 2: offense is just not It's not a sustainable way to

1375
01:06:27,160 --> 01:06:29,520
Speaker 2: go up and down the field, especially when you don't

1376
01:06:29,560 --> 01:06:34,480
Speaker 2: have a Rondel Miller and a David Bell. So I

1377
01:06:34,560 --> 01:06:37,640
Speaker 2: think this number is about right. If you like Purdue

1378
01:06:39,240 --> 01:06:40,920
Speaker 2: and you think they're going to get the Bowl eligibility,

1379
01:06:40,920 --> 01:06:42,720
Speaker 2: I think it's probably gonna come down to that Indiana game.

1380
01:06:42,760 --> 01:06:45,440
Speaker 2: Then the year. Thoughts on the boil.

1381
01:06:45,280 --> 01:06:48,600
Speaker 1: Maker Well, I mean, I'm gonna start off. I like,

1382
01:06:48,680 --> 01:06:51,040
Speaker 1: I like Purdue football, I like betting on Purdue football.

1383
01:06:51,080 --> 01:06:53,480
Speaker 1: I like watching Perdue offense. We have for years. But

1384
01:06:53,720 --> 01:06:55,600
Speaker 1: uh yeah, you got to play a little bit of defense.

1385
01:06:55,680 --> 01:06:57,840
Speaker 1: I think it's best that I start off there. Brad

1386
01:06:57,920 --> 01:07:01,080
Speaker 1: Lambert slides in is a defensive role and he's got

1387
01:07:01,120 --> 01:07:03,880
Speaker 1: plenty to work with. The Boilermakers were one hundred and

1388
01:07:03,880 --> 01:07:05,680
Speaker 1: twenty fifth and coverage and one hundred and twenty sixth

1389
01:07:05,680 --> 01:07:09,360
Speaker 1: and sacrate. They've created zero pressure, they had zero ability

1390
01:07:09,360 --> 01:07:11,720
Speaker 1: to close the gap on balls in flight, and the

1391
01:07:11,760 --> 01:07:13,520
Speaker 1: HAVOC rating of one hundred and fifth must improve, and

1392
01:07:13,520 --> 01:07:15,360
Speaker 1: there's a good chance of it. If you think COVID

1393
01:07:15,400 --> 01:07:17,360
Speaker 1: had to do with everything, I mean COVID had a

1394
01:07:17,400 --> 01:07:20,080
Speaker 1: ton of players out from the counting stats, the defensive

1395
01:07:20,080 --> 01:07:22,960
Speaker 1: front seven. I mean even Jeff Brahm himself couldn't coach

1396
01:07:22,960 --> 01:07:24,360
Speaker 1: a game, and his brother had to coach a game

1397
01:07:24,400 --> 01:07:26,440
Speaker 1: for the first time ever. So, I mean it's just

1398
01:07:26,480 --> 01:07:30,000
Speaker 1: a thing where the team really struggled with the pandemic season.

1399
01:07:30,520 --> 01:07:33,520
Speaker 1: You know, defensive end George Cloftus will look to return

1400
01:07:33,600 --> 01:07:36,439
Speaker 1: to for him as all NFL eyes are on him.

1401
01:07:36,720 --> 01:07:39,840
Speaker 1: He's done so so you know, when Havoc has come

1402
01:07:39,880 --> 01:07:41,400
Speaker 1: on this side of the ball the last two seasons,

1403
01:07:41,440 --> 01:07:43,400
Speaker 1: it's been in the front seven. But you know, like

1404
01:07:43,400 --> 01:07:45,200
Speaker 1: you said, five sacks and six games is just not

1405
01:07:45,240 --> 01:07:47,720
Speaker 1: going to get it done. But the hiring of Lambert

1406
01:07:48,000 --> 01:07:49,520
Speaker 1: may give us a little bit of reason to think

1407
01:07:49,520 --> 01:07:51,600
Speaker 1: that that's going to change. Last year, Marshall, the Herd

1408
01:07:51,680 --> 01:07:56,280
Speaker 1: finished top ten in plenty of defensive categories rushing success rate,

1409
01:07:56,560 --> 01:07:59,960
Speaker 1: rush explosiveness, coverage and second in the nation and TAC.

1410
01:08:00,560 --> 01:08:03,440
Speaker 1: That's right, Marshall. Last year, of all the teams who

1411
01:08:03,480 --> 01:08:07,240
Speaker 1: played football defensively, that is second in tackling per PFF.

1412
01:08:07,760 --> 01:08:10,480
Speaker 1: That tells me that is a direct correlation to coaching.

1413
01:08:10,560 --> 01:08:13,160
Speaker 1: That is a direct correlation to Brad Lambert, and that's

1414
01:08:13,160 --> 01:08:16,360
Speaker 1: why I'm positive that his four to three front is

1415
01:08:16,360 --> 01:08:19,519
Speaker 1: going to be able to stabilize this defense. He has

1416
01:08:19,600 --> 01:08:21,439
Speaker 1: a little bit of a wrinkle with his four to three,

1417
01:08:21,880 --> 01:08:24,759
Speaker 1: his weak side defensive end generally stands up and floats around.

1418
01:08:24,760 --> 01:08:27,200
Speaker 1: I know we talked about the bullet position with Ohio State,

1419
01:08:27,479 --> 01:08:29,840
Speaker 1: but Lambert can give a different look. Now. That player

1420
01:08:29,880 --> 01:08:32,200
Speaker 1: is going to be DeMarcus Mitchell, who transferred in from

1421
01:08:32,240 --> 01:08:35,559
Speaker 1: Southwest Mississippi Community College before twenty twenty. I think he's

1422
01:08:35,560 --> 01:08:38,640
Speaker 1: a player that gets that hybrid position. And Lambert, in

1423
01:08:38,680 --> 01:08:42,200
Speaker 1: my opinion from Marshall, is a sneaky good higher. This

1424
01:08:42,360 --> 01:08:45,200
Speaker 1: is somebody just well out. Even talking about the offense,

1425
01:08:45,240 --> 01:08:47,400
Speaker 1: I think, you know, betting over five when I projected

1426
01:08:47,400 --> 01:08:50,240
Speaker 1: at six based on that alone. There, they're going to

1427
01:08:50,280 --> 01:08:53,800
Speaker 1: come back and be better on defense. You're right, David

1428
01:08:53,800 --> 01:08:55,800
Speaker 1: Bell returns, Milton Wright is going to turn heads in

1429
01:08:55,840 --> 01:08:58,120
Speaker 1: college fantasy leagues, and there's just a set of tight

1430
01:08:58,200 --> 01:09:00,599
Speaker 1: ends here that are going to be able to have plays.

1431
01:09:01,120 --> 01:09:03,440
Speaker 1: You know, not a lot of success right here for Purdue,

1432
01:09:03,560 --> 01:09:07,360
Speaker 1: but Purdue does have one thing that most teams don't,

1433
01:09:07,400 --> 01:09:10,519
Speaker 1: and that's experience at the quarterback position. Jake Jack Plumber

1434
01:09:10,560 --> 01:09:13,160
Speaker 1: and Aidan O'Connell, they have plenty experiences backups for a

1435
01:09:13,280 --> 01:09:16,120
Speaker 1: number of years. They combined for a twenty five to

1436
01:09:16,200 --> 01:09:19,120
Speaker 1: four td I in t ratio, and it's good news

1437
01:09:19,160 --> 01:09:20,880
Speaker 1: for an offense as one of the lowest rush rates

1438
01:09:20,880 --> 01:09:23,200
Speaker 1: of the nation at thirty six percent. Jeff Brohm wants

1439
01:09:23,240 --> 01:09:27,120
Speaker 1: to throw more than anybody. You're right stuck. It's not sustainable.

1440
01:09:27,600 --> 01:09:33,720
Speaker 1: It's exciting, but I see huge, huge jump on the

1441
01:09:33,760 --> 01:09:36,679
Speaker 1: defensive side of the ball with Brad Lambert. The schedule

1442
01:09:36,680 --> 01:09:41,679
Speaker 1: includes Yukon, Northwestern, Michigan State, Illinois. These are all expected

1443
01:09:41,680 --> 01:09:44,880
Speaker 1: wins with spreads seven or less. Yukon maybe a little

1444
01:09:44,880 --> 01:09:48,000
Speaker 1: bit higher. I think coin flips against Minnesota, Nebraska, and

1445
01:09:48,040 --> 01:09:50,439
Speaker 1: Indiana are what's going to determine this win total. But

1446
01:09:50,720 --> 01:09:52,639
Speaker 1: there's just I'm looking at the schedule. I don't see

1447
01:09:52,640 --> 01:09:55,160
Speaker 1: how it lands on four right, I mean five maybe,

1448
01:09:55,200 --> 01:09:57,240
Speaker 1: but at six is where the projection is. And I

1449
01:09:57,240 --> 01:09:59,800
Speaker 1: think we're not talking enough what Brad Lambert's doing with

1450
01:09:59,840 --> 01:10:01,120
Speaker 1: this It's going to do with this defense.

1451
01:10:02,280 --> 01:10:08,040
Speaker 2: My prediction is Purdue beats Indiana to end the season

1452
01:10:08,040 --> 01:10:10,479
Speaker 2: to get to six wins and bulls. But about his

1453
01:10:10,520 --> 01:10:13,360
Speaker 2: play him in that game and it'll help and then

1454
01:10:13,360 --> 01:10:17,680
Speaker 2: it'll cash my Indiana winterital under and Indiana window under

1455
01:10:17,720 --> 01:10:20,559
Speaker 2: could still go under. You know if Indiana wins that game,

1456
01:10:20,560 --> 01:10:22,240
Speaker 2: which is why I'm playing the Indiana win total under

1457
01:10:22,320 --> 01:10:24,120
Speaker 2: that's my prediction there. All right, let's close up the

1458
01:10:24,120 --> 01:10:28,479
Speaker 2: Big ten with your boy Brt Bilima and the Illinois

1459
01:10:28,560 --> 01:10:31,080
Speaker 2: fight in the line. I win total over three and

1460
01:10:31,120 --> 01:10:33,640
Speaker 2: a half minus one thirty at at MGM. Obviously the

1461
01:10:33,720 --> 01:10:38,080
Speaker 2: new staff here, it just wasn't happening with Lovey Smith.

1462
01:10:38,600 --> 01:10:42,800
Speaker 2: Brandon Peters back at quarterback this six year in college.

1463
01:10:43,240 --> 01:10:46,439
Speaker 2: I don't know who he's throwing to. The Williams quarterback

1464
01:10:46,520 --> 01:10:48,280
Speaker 2: last year. I think he might start a receiver as

1465
01:10:48,320 --> 01:10:50,759
Speaker 2: a chance of that. But this is a Belm offense,

1466
01:10:50,800 --> 01:10:53,400
Speaker 2: so it's it's gonna be a power rushing attack, focus

1467
01:10:53,479 --> 01:10:56,599
Speaker 2: on tight ends, offensive line, and that's what they want

1468
01:10:56,600 --> 01:10:58,920
Speaker 2: to do. Illinois obviously was hurt by COVID last year.

1469
01:10:58,960 --> 01:11:00,760
Speaker 2: To yes, I get at Illinois offense and three of

1470
01:11:00,800 --> 01:11:04,599
Speaker 2: you out there, so the defense was just horrific. And

1471
01:11:04,640 --> 01:11:06,960
Speaker 2: this is one area where I think, you know they're

1472
01:11:07,680 --> 01:11:09,760
Speaker 2: they're gonna have an identity. Now how quickly can they

1473
01:11:10,200 --> 01:11:12,680
Speaker 2: implement all this? And you want to be the way

1474
01:11:12,680 --> 01:11:15,479
Speaker 2: you're gonna be a rushing offense. On the defense, they

1475
01:11:15,479 --> 01:11:17,519
Speaker 2: want to be aggressive and play a lot more Man

1476
01:11:17,720 --> 01:11:21,719
Speaker 2: new defensive coordinator Ryan Walters's get a three to four base.

1477
01:11:22,880 --> 01:11:26,000
Speaker 2: They were so bad on like early downs past defense,

1478
01:11:26,000 --> 01:11:28,559
Speaker 2: they just played a four to three cover two shell

1479
01:11:28,760 --> 01:11:31,880
Speaker 2: all the time. His most predictable defense under Lovely Smith.

1480
01:11:32,080 --> 01:11:35,400
Speaker 2: Just an outdated dinosaur when it comes to calling defenses

1481
01:11:35,439 --> 01:11:37,880
Speaker 2: at the college level. So I think that just scheme

1482
01:11:37,920 --> 01:11:41,040
Speaker 2: wise on the defensive side of the ball for defense

1483
01:11:41,040 --> 01:11:43,280
Speaker 2: that has been hard in recent years, this is one

1484
01:11:43,320 --> 01:11:47,840
Speaker 2: of the most. This is a team that has the

1485
01:11:47,880 --> 01:11:51,320
Speaker 2: most promise, that can jump in productions just from changing

1486
01:11:51,320 --> 01:11:55,080
Speaker 2: the scheme. So I love Jay Cansen and linebacker, but

1487
01:11:55,120 --> 01:11:57,640
Speaker 2: there's a lot of questions with this team. Can they

1488
01:11:57,680 --> 01:12:00,120
Speaker 2: play that aggressive style because the past team is so

1489
01:12:00,240 --> 01:12:01,720
Speaker 2: bad last year, So there's gonna be a lot of

1490
01:12:01,920 --> 01:12:05,320
Speaker 2: focus on how the Corners perform over three and a

1491
01:12:05,360 --> 01:12:08,600
Speaker 2: half minus one thirty. You look at their schedule. You know,

1492
01:12:08,680 --> 01:12:12,920
Speaker 2: you start at home against Nebraska and utsa winnable games

1493
01:12:13,320 --> 01:12:15,960
Speaker 2: that's gonna go a long way and determining where you go.

1494
01:12:16,080 --> 01:12:18,360
Speaker 2: You know you're hosting Maryland and you're at Virginia, and

1495
01:12:18,400 --> 01:12:20,840
Speaker 2: you know you have Charlotte at home, and then the

1496
01:12:20,880 --> 01:12:23,680
Speaker 2: schedule gets you know, pretty tough. Late, but there's some

1497
01:12:23,760 --> 01:12:27,080
Speaker 2: winnable games this schedule. You know, you're you finished with

1498
01:12:27,160 --> 01:12:30,400
Speaker 2: Northwestern at home. You have Rutgers at home later in

1499
01:12:30,439 --> 01:12:32,519
Speaker 2: the year, so there's some winnable games on the schedule.

1500
01:12:32,520 --> 01:12:35,240
Speaker 2: It's a question of how this is gonna be a

1501
01:12:35,280 --> 01:12:37,360
Speaker 2: drastic turnaround that Bilaman wants to do. It wants to

1502
01:12:37,439 --> 01:12:40,439
Speaker 2: come in and establish his identity wholesale changes on the

1503
01:12:40,439 --> 01:12:42,680
Speaker 2: defensive side of the ball from a scheme perspective, So

1504
01:12:42,680 --> 01:12:44,760
Speaker 2: there's a lot of questions. It's tough to do in

1505
01:12:44,880 --> 01:12:48,000
Speaker 2: year one. What are your thoughts on your boy Beilama?

1506
01:12:48,520 --> 01:12:52,160
Speaker 1: Oh, my boy, my boy, Brett Beilama. So, surprisingly enough,

1507
01:12:52,240 --> 01:12:54,600
Speaker 1: with all the nice things I had to say with

1508
01:12:54,680 --> 01:12:57,080
Speaker 1: him at the beginning of the podcast, I'm actually going

1509
01:12:57,120 --> 01:12:59,920
Speaker 1: to put a little sunshine on the Illinois program because

1510
01:12:59,920 --> 01:13:01,320
Speaker 1: I think three and a half was a little bit

1511
01:13:01,320 --> 01:13:04,280
Speaker 1: too low. The question with Illinois is Bilin is not

1512
01:13:04,320 --> 01:13:06,559
Speaker 1: the kind of coach that comes in and says, these

1513
01:13:06,600 --> 01:13:08,599
Speaker 1: are the players I have on hand, So these are

1514
01:13:08,600 --> 01:13:10,200
Speaker 1: the kind of plays that I'm going to run until

1515
01:13:10,240 --> 01:13:12,080
Speaker 1: I get my guys in. This is not how it works.

1516
01:13:12,360 --> 01:13:14,120
Speaker 1: He's going to come in and he doesn't care if

1517
01:13:14,160 --> 01:13:16,200
Speaker 1: his offensive line all the way two hundred and forty pounds,

1518
01:13:16,240 --> 01:13:18,120
Speaker 1: He's going to try to pound the ball. So the

1519
01:13:18,200 --> 01:13:20,120
Speaker 1: question is is what do they have on hand and

1520
01:13:20,240 --> 01:13:22,559
Speaker 1: will it work? So eighty four percent of the offense

1521
01:13:22,600 --> 01:13:25,720
Speaker 1: from transfer activity and returning production come back in. That

1522
01:13:25,800 --> 01:13:27,719
Speaker 1: includes a rank of one hundred and fifth and success

1523
01:13:27,800 --> 01:13:30,080
Speaker 1: rate one hundred and thirteenth and finishing drives not very

1524
01:13:30,080 --> 01:13:33,120
Speaker 1: good numbers. You know with the Bilman team that the

1525
01:13:33,200 --> 01:13:35,519
Speaker 1: goal will be to pound the rock and standard downs

1526
01:13:35,560 --> 01:13:37,960
Speaker 1: and pound the rock and passing down. So it doesn't

1527
01:13:38,080 --> 01:13:39,840
Speaker 1: matter that Brandon Peters don't have anyone to throw to

1528
01:13:40,040 --> 01:13:41,840
Speaker 1: or maybe he can't even make those passes. They're going

1529
01:13:41,920 --> 01:13:44,320
Speaker 1: to run the ball third and nine. So and I

1530
01:13:44,360 --> 01:13:47,160
Speaker 1: think the question is Tony Peterson the offensive coordinator? And

1531
01:13:47,160 --> 01:13:49,360
Speaker 1: if you have any like mixed feelings and you think

1532
01:13:49,400 --> 01:13:50,840
Speaker 1: that they're going to pass the ball, and then I'm

1533
01:13:50,840 --> 01:13:52,680
Speaker 1: just saying this because Brett Bielman likes to run the ball.

1534
01:13:52,720 --> 01:13:55,280
Speaker 1: They went out got Tony Peterson's the offensive coordinator. He

1535
01:13:55,360 --> 01:13:57,519
Speaker 1: just comes in after this doing the same role at

1536
01:13:57,520 --> 01:14:00,439
Speaker 1: app State where they ran the ball over sixty four percent.

1537
01:14:00,560 --> 01:14:02,640
Speaker 1: So the writing is on the wall. This is going

1538
01:14:02,680 --> 01:14:04,000
Speaker 1: to be a heavy rush unit, and if you're in

1539
01:14:04,040 --> 01:14:06,600
Speaker 1: college fantasy, gotta be drafted in the Illinois wide receivers,

1540
01:14:06,800 --> 01:14:09,320
Speaker 1: you know, and he's got a long history of improving

1541
01:14:09,400 --> 01:14:13,480
Speaker 1: rush attacks everywhere he's been from East Carolina, LA Tech, Marshall.

1542
01:14:13,960 --> 01:14:15,840
Speaker 1: This is a big jump for him up in job

1543
01:14:15,880 --> 01:14:18,400
Speaker 1: title and program that he's at, but he's proved it before.

1544
01:14:18,840 --> 01:14:21,599
Speaker 1: The offensive line returns almost everyone except kinder Green, who's

1545
01:14:21,640 --> 01:14:24,799
Speaker 1: now on the Steelers' rosters. So Bilma has a stable

1546
01:14:24,840 --> 01:14:27,360
Speaker 1: of offensive linemen who are big and can play in

1547
01:14:27,439 --> 01:14:29,560
Speaker 1: the in this conference, but he's got a lot of

1548
01:14:29,600 --> 01:14:33,280
Speaker 1: unproven backs. Western Michigan transfer Chase Brown, maybe not big enough,

1549
01:14:33,360 --> 01:14:37,559
Speaker 1: kind of a shifting back, Arkansas East Carolina transfer Chase Hayden.

1550
01:14:37,600 --> 01:14:39,240
Speaker 1: I haven't even thought of Chase Hayden until I read

1551
01:14:39,240 --> 01:14:43,880
Speaker 1: about him transferring into Illinois. Was a shifting back at Arkansas,

1552
01:14:43,880 --> 01:14:46,439
Speaker 1: but just did not have the beef to play many games.

1553
01:14:46,439 --> 01:14:48,920
Speaker 1: So we'll see what his size is coming into camp.

1554
01:14:48,920 --> 01:14:50,759
Speaker 1: But that's what Beilam is going to do, there's no doubt.

1555
01:14:51,040 --> 01:14:53,200
Speaker 1: And the defense, you know, has some really low marks

1556
01:14:53,240 --> 01:14:55,280
Speaker 1: and just about everything from what they returned to what

1557
01:14:55,320 --> 01:14:58,040
Speaker 1: they did on the field last year. Defensive coordinator Ryan

1558
01:14:58,080 --> 01:15:01,439
Speaker 1: Walters moves in from Missouri, but there's just not a

1559
01:15:01,439 --> 01:15:03,920
Speaker 1: lot here to believe in Missouri's rank of one hundred

1560
01:15:03,920 --> 01:15:06,759
Speaker 1: and twenty six, then finishing drives last year, it's certainly

1561
01:15:06,800 --> 01:15:10,000
Speaker 1: a stat that's like, it's not wanting me to back

1562
01:15:10,080 --> 01:15:14,240
Speaker 1: Illinois spreads or back Illinois unders because the defense I

1563
01:15:14,280 --> 01:15:16,400
Speaker 1: do not think is going to improve because the defensive

1564
01:15:16,400 --> 01:15:19,280
Speaker 1: coordinator didn't prove that he could do it before. Illinois

1565
01:15:19,360 --> 01:15:20,880
Speaker 1: wins and losses are going to be determined by the

1566
01:15:20,920 --> 01:15:24,559
Speaker 1: ability to run five plus minutes sustained drives on the

1567
01:15:24,600 --> 01:15:29,400
Speaker 1: ground and score once they get past the forty yard line.

1568
01:15:29,680 --> 01:15:30,960
Speaker 1: And you have to go and look at who they

1569
01:15:30,960 --> 01:15:33,479
Speaker 1: play on their schedule. Nebraska's going to have a bottom

1570
01:15:33,479 --> 01:15:36,599
Speaker 1: half defensive front seven in the Big Ten. UTSA does

1571
01:15:36,680 --> 01:15:39,719
Speaker 1: have a top four front in Conference USA, but Virginia

1572
01:15:39,800 --> 01:15:43,439
Speaker 1: might have the worst linebackers in the ACC. Maryland and

1573
01:15:43,439 --> 01:15:47,240
Speaker 1: Minnesota are easily the two worst defensive front sevens heading

1574
01:15:47,240 --> 01:15:51,680
Speaker 1: into the season, especially Minnesota just Smoking Crater couldn't be

1575
01:15:51,720 --> 01:15:55,200
Speaker 1: any worse. So there's chances for Illinois to get wins

1576
01:15:55,280 --> 01:15:57,280
Speaker 1: on this schedule even if they're coin flip games. There

1577
01:15:57,280 --> 01:16:00,280
Speaker 1: are just mismatches already that I see, or defensive runts

1578
01:16:00,280 --> 01:16:02,120
Speaker 1: are not going to be able to contain whatever Beilam

1579
01:16:02,200 --> 01:16:04,600
Speaker 1: is going to do from a double tight set, or

1580
01:16:04,640 --> 01:16:07,240
Speaker 1: he's going to do from pounding the rock. You know,

1581
01:16:07,720 --> 01:16:11,760
Speaker 1: underdogs against Maryland, Nebraska, Northwestern Virginia. All winnable games, all

1582
01:16:11,760 --> 01:16:13,680
Speaker 1: winnable games. The over three and a half is the

1583
01:16:13,720 --> 01:16:17,639
Speaker 1: play Listen what I have to say about Brett Miela

1584
01:16:17,680 --> 01:16:19,960
Speaker 1: Bielman at the beginning of the podcast comes from somebody

1585
01:16:20,000 --> 01:16:21,920
Speaker 1: that donates to the Razorback program. But I got news

1586
01:16:21,960 --> 01:16:23,800
Speaker 1: for you. I love my wallet more than anything else,

1587
01:16:24,240 --> 01:16:27,720
Speaker 1: and I think this team is completely being undervalued. I

1588
01:16:27,720 --> 01:16:29,920
Speaker 1: don't think they could do anything on defense, but what

1589
01:16:30,000 --> 01:16:32,640
Speaker 1: Bilama wants to do is a huge mismatch for a

1590
01:16:32,640 --> 01:16:34,559
Speaker 1: lot of teams on this schedule, So I think four

1591
01:16:34,640 --> 01:16:35,520
Speaker 1: is easily attainable.

1592
01:16:37,080 --> 01:16:39,880
Speaker 2: I think that I don't disagree with you, but I

1593
01:16:39,920 --> 01:16:41,640
Speaker 2: disagree with you on the defensive side. I think that's just

1594
01:16:41,720 --> 01:16:44,040
Speaker 2: that their scheme was so bad last year that there's

1595
01:16:44,080 --> 01:16:47,200
Speaker 2: gonna be a bump there regardless. And if it's funny

1596
01:16:47,240 --> 01:16:50,000
Speaker 2: that there's an x Arkansas running back running for Belima

1597
01:16:50,040 --> 01:16:52,400
Speaker 2: here for Illinois. Yeah, you're pumping them up. They have

1598
01:16:52,479 --> 01:16:54,639
Speaker 2: they have good tight ends Luke Ford and Daniel Barker,

1599
01:16:55,600 --> 01:16:59,000
Speaker 2: and the receivers are just so bad, like teams are

1600
01:16:59,000 --> 01:17:01,400
Speaker 2: going to be stacking the boy against them. I think

1601
01:17:01,680 --> 01:17:04,679
Speaker 2: Navarro might be their second receivers, a walk on performer,

1602
01:17:04,760 --> 01:17:07,759
Speaker 2: walk on the Williams their ex quarterback. Moving a receiver

1603
01:17:07,840 --> 01:17:11,360
Speaker 2: might be like I think High Towers the Miami Transfers

1604
01:17:11,360 --> 01:17:14,400
Speaker 2: is the best receiver. It's the receivers are are bad,

1605
01:17:14,479 --> 01:17:16,360
Speaker 2: so like, I don't know if they can get any balance,

1606
01:17:17,640 --> 01:17:19,599
Speaker 2: and you're just gonna have loaded boxes. But I don't

1607
01:17:19,640 --> 01:17:21,519
Speaker 2: I don't disagree with you. I think it's over nothing

1608
01:17:21,560 --> 01:17:24,519
Speaker 2: here with the ALIGNI all right, before we get out

1609
01:17:24,560 --> 01:17:28,800
Speaker 2: of here, great stuff covered every team, but let's kind

1610
01:17:28,800 --> 01:17:33,000
Speaker 2: of wrap it up by going three and out.

1611
01:17:33,280 --> 01:17:35,400
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1612
01:17:36,840 --> 01:17:40,919
Speaker 2: All right, first down, let's go with our favorite win total.

1613
01:17:41,439 --> 01:17:47,320
Speaker 2: I will start, and I'm gonna say Indiana under eight wins.

1614
01:17:47,960 --> 01:17:52,439
Speaker 2: I talked about the schedule at Iowa, since at Penn State,

1615
01:17:52,560 --> 01:17:55,439
Speaker 2: Ohio State at home, but it's off of a bye

1616
01:17:55,520 --> 01:17:59,120
Speaker 2: at Maryland and at Michigan and at Purdue. Those aren't gimmes.

1617
01:17:59,520 --> 01:18:03,320
Speaker 2: Then Western Kentucky in the middle of your Cincinnati and

1618
01:18:03,320 --> 01:18:05,639
Speaker 2: Penn State games, and Western Kentucky's off of a bye.

1619
01:18:05,800 --> 01:18:08,200
Speaker 2: Just Land mines all over this schedule, which I think

1620
01:18:08,280 --> 01:18:10,680
Speaker 2: is very difficult. I think there's some regression coming for

1621
01:18:10,760 --> 01:18:14,479
Speaker 2: this Indiana team in the turnovers and red zone departments. Look,

1622
01:18:14,520 --> 01:18:16,880
Speaker 2: they could have a top twenty top twenty five year

1623
01:18:16,880 --> 01:18:18,519
Speaker 2: and GOO seven and five, which is where I think

1624
01:18:18,560 --> 01:18:20,800
Speaker 2: this team ultimately ends up. I make the win their

1625
01:18:20,840 --> 01:18:24,600
Speaker 2: win total seven point one, and there's reasons why I

1626
01:18:24,760 --> 01:18:26,679
Speaker 2: want to fade this team. So I bought under eight.

1627
01:18:27,080 --> 01:18:31,160
Speaker 2: And that's all assuming Michael Poenix stays healthy all year long,

1628
01:18:31,320 --> 01:18:34,000
Speaker 2: and he's had three season ending injuries, We'll see how

1629
01:18:34,000 --> 01:18:37,200
Speaker 2: you can. I've had two ac al tears as well.

1630
01:18:37,360 --> 01:18:40,479
Speaker 2: It's not easy psychologically. Hopefully you can stay healthy for

1631
01:18:40,520 --> 01:18:42,960
Speaker 2: Indiana fans sake, But I do not think this is

1632
01:18:43,000 --> 01:18:46,800
Speaker 2: the first time Indiana gets to nine wins in the

1633
01:18:46,840 --> 01:18:51,160
Speaker 2: past whatever fifty plus years. So I'm going Indiana under.

1634
01:18:50,920 --> 01:18:52,720
Speaker 1: Eight where you had it. I'm going to join you

1635
01:18:52,760 --> 01:18:54,360
Speaker 1: on that. But I've got two inin Tols. I just

1636
01:18:54,400 --> 01:18:57,439
Speaker 1: can't decide which one I like better. So let's go

1637
01:18:57,680 --> 01:18:59,639
Speaker 1: with the fate of Michigan. I'm gonna go under seven

1638
01:18:59,680 --> 01:19:01,080
Speaker 1: and a half. Half though it's a win total, I

1639
01:19:01,120 --> 01:19:04,280
Speaker 1: make it six. Not a believer in Jim Harbaugh. Josh

1640
01:19:04,280 --> 01:19:07,600
Speaker 1: Gaddis was supposed to be the next coming of everything.

1641
01:19:07,680 --> 01:19:10,559
Speaker 1: Offensive coordinators could be bringing this style from Alabama up

1642
01:19:10,560 --> 01:19:14,000
Speaker 1: to Michigan. It has not happened. We've got questions at quarterback,

1643
01:19:14,160 --> 01:19:17,439
Speaker 1: We've got questions on defensive schemes. We got so many questions,

1644
01:19:17,439 --> 01:19:19,599
Speaker 1: and hardball is long enough into this tenure there shouldn't

1645
01:19:19,640 --> 01:19:23,160
Speaker 1: be questions. We are going in the wrong direction, and

1646
01:19:23,439 --> 01:19:25,400
Speaker 1: I think that's going to continue in this win total.

1647
01:19:28,040 --> 01:19:32,800
Speaker 1: It's interesting I feel and I don't like to say

1648
01:19:32,920 --> 01:19:35,879
Speaker 1: I think and I feel stuff, but to be honest,

1649
01:19:36,280 --> 01:19:39,559
Speaker 1: I feel like this win total is a reflection of

1650
01:19:39,680 --> 01:19:44,080
Speaker 1: where some of the consumer bases right. There are a

1651
01:19:44,120 --> 01:19:46,400
Speaker 1: lot of people betting in the state of Michigan. There

1652
01:19:46,400 --> 01:19:48,160
Speaker 1: are a lot of people betting in New Jersey, state

1653
01:19:48,160 --> 01:19:51,639
Speaker 1: of Michigan and Las Vegas, and I'm not sure Michigan

1654
01:19:51,640 --> 01:19:53,479
Speaker 1: football is ever going to be allowed to be what

1655
01:19:53,560 --> 01:19:57,000
Speaker 1: their actual win total is. So I know my projection

1656
01:19:57,120 --> 01:19:59,920
Speaker 1: is well lower, and I've looked at other power ratings

1657
01:20:00,080 --> 01:20:03,880
Speaker 1: people I trust, and you know SP plus is below

1658
01:20:04,040 --> 01:20:06,439
Speaker 1: seven and a half. So I don't like this mission.

1659
01:20:06,439 --> 01:20:08,240
Speaker 1: Everything about the Michigan thing I don't like. And I

1660
01:20:08,280 --> 01:20:10,720
Speaker 1: think the number was put there because they know that

1661
01:20:10,720 --> 01:20:12,439
Speaker 1: there's going to be an appetite for the over on

1662
01:20:12,520 --> 01:20:14,719
Speaker 1: this team no matter what they put on the field.

1663
01:20:14,800 --> 01:20:18,560
Speaker 1: So under on Michigan for all the analytics we've said before,

1664
01:20:18,680 --> 01:20:21,040
Speaker 1: also under for that reason. But hey, I'm going to

1665
01:20:21,080 --> 01:20:23,479
Speaker 1: help you out with your Indiana bet and I'm going

1666
01:20:23,520 --> 01:20:26,280
Speaker 1: to take Purdue over five. To me, this is still

1667
01:20:26,280 --> 01:20:29,080
Speaker 1: in a very exciting team. It's not the most talented

1668
01:20:29,120 --> 01:20:31,600
Speaker 1: two sets of quarterbacks, but they're experienced and I like

1669
01:20:31,640 --> 01:20:34,760
Speaker 1: their TD to I int ratio. You know, they dealt

1670
01:20:34,760 --> 01:20:36,720
Speaker 1: with so much off the field, I don't, you know,

1671
01:20:36,760 --> 01:20:39,880
Speaker 1: from a COVID perspective, just like Wisconsin. I'm going to

1672
01:20:39,960 --> 01:20:42,559
Speaker 1: go with Purdue over five. This is a team I

1673
01:20:42,560 --> 01:20:45,839
Speaker 1: think can get to five and then we've got motivation

1674
01:20:45,920 --> 01:20:47,080
Speaker 1: the rest of the year to get to six and

1675
01:20:47,080 --> 01:20:50,800
Speaker 1: make a Bowl and hopefully that's over Indiana and right,

1676
01:20:51,240 --> 01:20:52,040
Speaker 1: good stuff there.

1677
01:20:52,240 --> 01:20:55,960
Speaker 2: Moving on to second down, it's our favorite Big Ten future.

1678
01:20:56,520 --> 01:20:59,360
Speaker 1: Here's the thing about the future, every time you look

1679
01:20:59,400 --> 01:21:02,120
Speaker 1: at it, the changes because you looked at it.

1680
01:21:03,080 --> 01:21:06,360
Speaker 2: I'm going and this is something. I played Wisconsin to

1681
01:21:06,400 --> 01:21:08,200
Speaker 2: win the West. I got him plus one ten. I

1682
01:21:08,240 --> 01:21:10,960
Speaker 2: think it's even money minus one ten. Now. I know

1683
01:21:11,160 --> 01:21:14,480
Speaker 2: playing the favorite in the West is a risky proposition

1684
01:21:14,560 --> 01:21:17,479
Speaker 2: in the Big Ten, there's usually surprises, and this means

1685
01:21:17,479 --> 01:21:19,800
Speaker 2: of Northwestern is probably gonna go undefeated and win the

1686
01:21:19,800 --> 01:21:23,800
Speaker 2: West this year. But I think it's between them and Iowa.

1687
01:21:24,680 --> 01:21:27,040
Speaker 2: Looking at the rosters, and I think Wisconsin has a

1688
01:21:27,040 --> 01:21:30,400
Speaker 2: better rouser and Wisconsin hosts Iowa. Wisconsin has all their

1689
01:21:30,439 --> 01:21:33,479
Speaker 2: tough games at home this year, only four true road games,

1690
01:21:33,520 --> 01:21:37,240
Speaker 2: all winnable. I think, you know, COVID and injuries to

1691
01:21:37,320 --> 01:21:40,880
Speaker 2: keep skill position players really really just hurt them last year.

1692
01:21:41,080 --> 01:21:44,120
Speaker 2: Graham Mertz I think will be much better. There is

1693
01:21:44,160 --> 01:21:46,680
Speaker 2: some subjective input here in how I'm projecting Mertz, but

1694
01:21:46,720 --> 01:21:49,679
Speaker 2: I think will be much better now that he's healthy.

1695
01:21:50,320 --> 01:21:52,639
Speaker 2: There's gonna be some running game. I love Jim leighter

1696
01:21:52,680 --> 01:21:54,800
Speaker 2: than that defense which returns a ton. And if it

1697
01:21:54,840 --> 01:21:57,840
Speaker 2: comes to this, Wisconsin hosts Iowa, I think they win

1698
01:21:57,880 --> 01:22:00,760
Speaker 2: that game. That's a difference in the division. So yeah,

1699
01:22:00,800 --> 01:22:05,439
Speaker 2: I think Wisconsin wins the West. I'm going with the favorite, yeah, and.

1700
01:22:05,360 --> 01:22:06,680
Speaker 1: I'm going to back you up on that, and I'm

1701
01:22:06,720 --> 01:22:08,639
Speaker 1: going to put a little bit more on it. I mean,

1702
01:22:08,680 --> 01:22:10,720
Speaker 1: if they were these two teams, Wisconsin I were to

1703
01:22:10,720 --> 01:22:13,639
Speaker 1: play each other on a neutral site, you'd be looking

1704
01:22:13,640 --> 01:22:15,280
Speaker 1: at a point spread about three and a half to

1705
01:22:15,360 --> 01:22:18,000
Speaker 1: four and a half right now in favor of Wisconsin.

1706
01:22:18,120 --> 01:22:20,080
Speaker 1: This isn't being played at a neutral site. This is

1707
01:22:20,120 --> 01:22:22,559
Speaker 1: being played at one of the toughest places in college

1708
01:22:22,560 --> 01:22:25,280
Speaker 1: football to play. So you know there are mismatches. I

1709
01:22:25,320 --> 01:22:28,240
Speaker 1: think Wisconsin has advantages in so this number at minus

1710
01:22:28,280 --> 01:22:30,639
Speaker 1: one fifteen at bet MGM, it needs to be bet.

1711
01:22:30,720 --> 01:22:32,519
Speaker 1: It needs to be bet a lot more. And considering

1712
01:22:32,520 --> 01:22:35,720
Speaker 1: what the point spread would be in a projection right now,

1713
01:22:35,920 --> 01:22:38,320
Speaker 1: Iowa and Wisconsin, this is a playable line up to

1714
01:22:38,400 --> 01:22:40,280
Speaker 1: minus one fifty, so I think it's got a lot

1715
01:22:40,280 --> 01:22:40,799
Speaker 1: of room.

1716
01:22:40,600 --> 01:22:43,320
Speaker 2: To be hit right now. Where are you going for

1717
01:22:43,360 --> 01:22:43,880
Speaker 2: your future?

1718
01:22:45,320 --> 01:22:48,840
Speaker 1: I'm joining you Wisconsin one fifteen. Yeah, I'm not only

1719
01:22:48,880 --> 01:22:50,920
Speaker 1: just backing you up, I'm telling you it should be

1720
01:22:51,000 --> 01:22:52,280
Speaker 1: you should buy this up to one.

1721
01:22:52,240 --> 01:22:58,240
Speaker 2: Fifty perfect consensus on the future. I completely agree, And

1722
01:22:58,320 --> 01:23:01,479
Speaker 2: let's finish up with third down. It's are Big Ten

1723
01:23:02,120 --> 01:23:06,840
Speaker 2: Conference Championship prediction. I'll start here. Look like the ACC.

1724
01:23:07,439 --> 01:23:10,320
Speaker 2: It's the Big Ten. There's not many surprises here. It's

1725
01:23:10,800 --> 01:23:15,240
Speaker 2: college football, your power conferences. Guess what Clemson wins the ACC,

1726
01:23:15,640 --> 01:23:18,880
Speaker 2: Ohio State wins the Big Ten. Not going out or

1727
01:23:18,880 --> 01:23:21,880
Speaker 2: a limb here, I've already just told you that I

1728
01:23:21,920 --> 01:23:24,479
Speaker 2: really think Wisconsin wins the West. So obviously I'm going

1729
01:23:24,560 --> 01:23:28,920
Speaker 2: Ohio State over Wisconsin. My prediction is Ohio State wins,

1730
01:23:29,880 --> 01:23:32,080
Speaker 2: Wisconsin covers and it's a competitive game.

1731
01:23:33,840 --> 01:23:36,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I'm gonna stick with you here. I mean,

1732
01:23:36,640 --> 01:23:38,760
Speaker 1: there's there's no reason for me to veer outside of

1733
01:23:38,760 --> 01:23:41,320
Speaker 1: Ohio State and Wisconsin being the Big Ten champions. I

1734
01:23:41,320 --> 01:23:43,080
Speaker 1: think it was the first piece I wrote back in March.

1735
01:23:43,120 --> 01:23:45,799
Speaker 1: I'm like, as the sun rises in the east, Ohio

1736
01:23:45,880 --> 01:23:47,920
Speaker 1: State and Wisconsin are going to meet each other again

1737
01:23:48,560 --> 01:23:50,840
Speaker 1: in the Big Ten Championship. I think, really, price point

1738
01:23:50,880 --> 01:23:52,880
Speaker 1: is something that needs to be discussed right now. Ohio

1739
01:23:52,880 --> 01:23:54,720
Speaker 1: State minus two twenty five, and so you have to

1740
01:23:54,760 --> 01:23:56,479
Speaker 1: ask yourself, is that what the money line would be

1741
01:23:56,560 --> 01:23:59,479
Speaker 1: in a potential matchup, and it's in the ballpark, it's

1742
01:23:59,520 --> 01:24:02,800
Speaker 1: pretty close. Projection would be about minus two ten. But

1743
01:24:02,840 --> 01:24:05,120
Speaker 1: the Wisconsin number right now is plus six fifty, and

1744
01:24:05,160 --> 01:24:06,640
Speaker 1: that's not what the money line is going to be.

1745
01:24:07,479 --> 01:24:09,320
Speaker 1: In a game on a neutral site with these two

1746
01:24:09,320 --> 01:24:13,519
Speaker 1: teams against each other, you get Wisconsin back to full

1747
01:24:13,560 --> 01:24:15,639
Speaker 1: speed to what they were in years past. It could

1748
01:24:15,640 --> 01:24:18,240
Speaker 1: be a little bit lower than that. So the target

1749
01:24:18,240 --> 01:24:20,920
Speaker 1: for Wisconsin should be about five to one considering what

1750
01:24:20,960 --> 01:24:23,679
Speaker 1: the money line will be in the conference championship game.

1751
01:24:23,960 --> 01:24:26,400
Speaker 1: So Wisconsin is a small by a plus six fifty,

1752
01:24:26,840 --> 01:24:29,160
Speaker 1: but that number needs to be hedged once you actually

1753
01:24:29,200 --> 01:24:31,280
Speaker 1: get to the Big Ten championship game, which is why

1754
01:24:31,280 --> 01:24:33,680
Speaker 1: price point is so important here. You don't want to

1755
01:24:33,680 --> 01:24:35,960
Speaker 1: take Ohio State over minus two hundred, and you don't

1756
01:24:36,000 --> 01:24:38,040
Speaker 1: want to take Wisconsin anything less than five to one.

1757
01:24:39,960 --> 01:24:44,639
Speaker 2: There you have good stuff, all things Big ten, as

1758
01:24:44,680 --> 01:24:48,040
Speaker 2: comprehensive as you're going to find on our first official

1759
01:24:48,080 --> 01:24:52,320
Speaker 2: episode of Big Bets on Campus. Thank you for migrating

1760
01:24:52,400 --> 01:24:57,599
Speaker 2: over to our primary feed. Make sure you leave a review,

1761
01:24:57,720 --> 01:25:01,840
Speaker 2: subscribe if you have it already, Tell a friend, tell

1762
01:25:01,880 --> 01:25:04,240
Speaker 2: an enemy. We are very important to us. We're going

1763
01:25:04,280 --> 01:25:06,160
Speaker 2: to grow this feed and bring you just tons of

1764
01:25:06,160 --> 01:25:09,640
Speaker 2: college content, and only college content to your feed, so

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01:25:09,760 --> 01:25:12,480
Speaker 2: help us out with a review and we'll do giveaways

1766
01:25:13,479 --> 01:25:16,479
Speaker 2: throughout the season. Thank you for listening. It's time for

1767
01:25:16,560 --> 01:25:19,280
Speaker 2: us to go get to work on the Pac twelve,

1768
01:25:19,280 --> 01:25:22,800
Speaker 2: which will be out next Tuesday. Thanks again, Colin, and

1769
01:25:22,800 --> 01:25:26,519
Speaker 2: thanks all of you for listening. We'll catch all next time.

1770
01:25:26,720 --> 01:25:28,120
Speaker 1: Cheers, peace out.