1 00:00:00,640 --> 00:00:04,160 Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly john Fast and this is Fast Politics, 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,120 Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of 3 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:11,640 Speaker 1: today's best minds. And Elon Musk warns that excessive spending 4 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 1: will plunge the US into debt slavery. Yeah, now he's 5 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:17,120 Speaker 1: worried about it. 6 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:20,439 Speaker 2: We have such a great chill for you today. 7 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: Risk Reversal's own Dan Nathan stops by to tell us 8 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 1: about businesses reactions to. 9 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 2: Trump's insane tariffs. 10 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:33,839 Speaker 1: Then we'll talk to Alan Alrod about his brilliant article 11 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 1: You're not crazy, America has gone mad. 12 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 3: But first of the news, so Molly, the CBO, which 13 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 3: this weekend, Mike Johnson had to say, you know is 14 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:45,199 Speaker 3: a woke institution and you should believe it. But then 15 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 3: they pointed out how often he cites it. He says 16 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 3: that the trunk tax bill will add two point four 17 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 3: trillion to the deficit a leave ten point nine million 18 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 3: more on insured. Great work, great work, really serving the 19 00:00:57,360 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 3: American people. 20 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 1: I want to talk about this bill because I know 21 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 1: that I keep talking about this bill, but I just 22 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 1: want all of our listeners to just take a minute 23 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 1: to realize how stupid this fucking thing is. Okay, first, 24 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 1: of all all Republicans in the House signed off on it, 25 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:18,040 Speaker 1: everyone from Marjorie Taylor Green to Mike Lawler. So if 26 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:21,119 Speaker 1: you're Mike Lawler and you're in a D plus one 27 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 1: or an R plus one, you know a very swingy district, 28 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:26,399 Speaker 1: which he is. Jesse is now going to look up 29 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:30,040 Speaker 1: what his district is, but it's a very tight district 30 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:33,399 Speaker 1: that is not supposed to elect a Marjorie Taylor Green. 31 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:37,040 Speaker 1: That guy also voted for this, so all of them 32 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 1: have voted for this. In it, nearly a thousand pages, 33 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 1: is a ton of pork, including crazy stuff like this 34 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 1: crazy thing that limits judicial power and oversight of this administration. 35 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 1: You're shocked to hear that, but I bet you're actually 36 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 1: not shocked to hear that. 37 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 2: And in it there's also a ton of other stuff. 38 00:01:56,320 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 1: Work requirements for parents with children over seven for Medicaid 39 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:04,880 Speaker 1: and food stamps. That's right, if you have a child 40 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:08,080 Speaker 1: over seven, you need to be working. You need to 41 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:11,680 Speaker 1: be having a job, Okay, because children. 42 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 2: Over seven are adults. I mean, this is what this 43 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:14,839 Speaker 2: bill does. 44 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 1: And what this bill does is it saves a little 45 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 1: bit of money clawing back Medicaid. That means rural hospitals 46 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:23,920 Speaker 1: and nursing homes, and then it spends a lot of 47 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:26,800 Speaker 1: money doing crazy tax stuff. And I want to have 48 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 1: one second to talk about the crazy tax stuff because basically, 49 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: this bill BBB, big beautiful bullshit is the purest distillation 50 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 1: of MAGA. Right, it's a lot of Trump's campaign promises, 51 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 1: no tax on tips. 52 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 2: How will they do? 53 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 1: No tax on tips? I feel like I'm going crazy, right, 54 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 1: what's a tip? What's not a tip? There's no way 55 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 1: to deliver this, And there's just a lot of more 56 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 1: tax bullshit. And then there's also stuff in this big 57 00:02:56,360 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 1: beautiful bullshit that is, you know, besides the judicial power stuff, 58 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 1: there's other stuff in there that's just pork. So Elon 59 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:06,919 Speaker 1: Musk has said now that it's a bad bill. Now 60 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:10,919 Speaker 1: I want to redo something from Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News, 61 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:16,079 Speaker 1: who was a really really really sourced congressional reporter, and 62 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 1: he said a Republican aid on Elon Musk opposing the 63 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 1: Reconciliation bill, the guy was pro the package until he 64 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 1: realized he wasn't going to get his way on the 65 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:30,520 Speaker 1: ev tax credits. Right, none of these people give a 66 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 1: fuck about the deficit. Elon wanted the ev tax credits 67 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 1: because he thinks it'll be good for TESLA. I want 68 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 1: people to realize, like, nobody here is acting out of 69 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 1: any interest but their own self interest. 70 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, strong agree. So we're going to have a real 71 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 3: survey of stupidity today, and analysis finds the majority of 72 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 3: Trump cabinet tied to Project twenty twenty five groups. What 73 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 3: a shocker. It's almost like we said this a year. 74 00:03:56,720 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 1: Ago, since you and I did this whole twenty twenty 75 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 1: five thing, this YouTube series, and we kept at every point, 76 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 1: we kept being like, I think you and I together 77 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 1: would be like, oh my god, these people are just 78 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 1: going to do twenty twenty five. 79 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 3: And yeah, the last episode we did of the thing 80 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:19,560 Speaker 3: where like we point out Trump lying and showing all 81 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:21,480 Speaker 3: the evidence that he's going to put exactly who he 82 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:23,599 Speaker 3: put in, Well, we were right. 83 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:27,160 Speaker 1: It's like I definitely spend time in this election cycle 84 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:29,599 Speaker 1: thinking about the ways I was wrong. Well here's one 85 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 1: where I was fucking right, And so we're you know, 86 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 1: this was always the play. 87 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:35,120 Speaker 2: Project twenty twenty five was the ethos. 88 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 1: Now there are things happening in this administration that are actually, 89 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 1: I think scarier than Project twenty twenty five, and I'm 90 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 1: thinking about like what RFK is is doing right now 91 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,800 Speaker 1: to research and science and health. 92 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 2: But do not. 93 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 1: Underestimate the damage that Ross Fought is doing at the 94 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:58,359 Speaker 1: Office of Management and Budget. And he was on the 95 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: Sunday shows last week. He's doing that because they're trying 96 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:03,840 Speaker 1: to push this bills through the Senate and he's trying 97 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:08,720 Speaker 1: to get senators on board. On this show, Dana Bash asks, 98 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:10,920 Speaker 1: is it fair to say what you're doing now is 99 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: in part enacting Project twenty twenty five, And of course Russvott. 100 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 2: Says absolutely not. 101 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 1: But this smart reporter pointed out that sixty to seventy 102 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:26,039 Speaker 1: percent of Project twenty twenty five's executive action proposals have 103 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 1: been implemented or initiated, and those are things like environment education, 104 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:35,480 Speaker 1: and then thirty to forty percent of their proposals are 105 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:39,120 Speaker 1: being proposed as legislation, and those are Look, you and 106 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 1: I both remember the goal of Project twenty twenty five 107 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: expand presidential power, take power away from Congress. This Congress 108 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 1: was really happy to give it to Trump and to 109 00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:54,600 Speaker 1: sort of make the presidency an imperial presidency. 110 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 2: And that's what we're watching happen in real time. 111 00:05:57,160 --> 00:05:59,720 Speaker 3: Yep. Well, the good news is is what we often 112 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 3: see is that the small elections in between the big 113 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:07,719 Speaker 3: mid terms and the of course every four years where 114 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:10,599 Speaker 3: we pick up president, that we're seeing a lot of 115 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:14,480 Speaker 3: really good news in districts that could spell good things 116 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:17,920 Speaker 3: for us pushing back against this administration. Since we had 117 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:21,359 Speaker 3: just achieved a landslide election when in South Carolina for 118 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 3: the Democrats. 119 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, you know this is like history rhymes right, Remember 120 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:32,159 Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen, Democrats won every election, and there's a 121 00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:37,120 Speaker 1: reason why. It's because the Republicans are doing something wildly unpopular. 122 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 1: Work requirements for food stamps, for Medicaid, these are unpopular things. 123 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:45,839 Speaker 1: The reason Republicans are in such a hurry to get 124 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 1: it past is a because they know that when people 125 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 1: read the bills they. 126 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 2: Won't like it, right like what happened with Marjorie Dale Green. 127 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 1: And b because ultimately they know this is super unpopular. 128 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 2: So I think we'll definitely see. 129 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:05,159 Speaker 1: More of these kind of amazing democratic landslides. You know, 130 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:07,640 Speaker 1: there are people listening to this podcast right now. A 131 00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 1: lot of people listen to this podcast, and you tend 132 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:12,640 Speaker 1: to be very civic minded, smart people. 133 00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 2: So here's my. 134 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:16,600 Speaker 1: Question for you. We see that there's going to be 135 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:19,600 Speaker 1: this grand swell, we see that Democrats are going to win. 136 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 1: Why don't you run for office? If you're listening to 137 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 1: this podcast you live in a red state or a 138 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 1: blue state, or a city or a town, like, we 139 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:32,200 Speaker 1: cannot wait for these people to fix our problems. They 140 00:07:32,280 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 1: are not motivated, they are not capable. So maybe you 141 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 1: listeners are the ones that we've been waiting for. 142 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, especially when we see incompetence like this that the 143 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 3: White House is being mocked after they admit that they 144 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:51,559 Speaker 3: sent letters to remind countries about trade deal deadlines and 145 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 3: now we're begging for them to cut deals. 146 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 2: Yes, well, you know who we haven't seen in a 147 00:07:57,200 --> 00:07:59,680 Speaker 2: long time. Tell me Peter Navarro. 148 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 3: Oh where is that? Follow? 149 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:03,480 Speaker 2: Where is Peter Navarro? 150 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:07,880 Speaker 1: Because Peter Navarro promised me ninety deals in ninety days. 151 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 3: Mall, you're going to be in DC soon, you're going 152 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 3: to put up missing signs. 153 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 2: Yes, I'm going to be like Peter. I think Peter's 154 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:14,000 Speaker 2: definitely going. 155 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 1: To come to my book reading. 156 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 2: He's a known reader. Yeah, so where are those ninety 157 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 2: deals in ninety days? 158 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:24,119 Speaker 1: You know how many deals. We have tell me one 159 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:26,720 Speaker 1: O one, we have one deal. And it's not even 160 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 1: a deal, it's a framework of a deal. Dan Nathan 161 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:37,080 Speaker 1: is a c NBC contributor and the host of the 162 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 1: Risk Reversal podcast. 163 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 2: Dan Nathan, Welcome to Fast Politics. 164 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:45,079 Speaker 4: Favorite podcast other than my own, Molly Dalnas. Great to 165 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:47,560 Speaker 4: be here. I have a book to read, by the way, 166 00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 4: I'm really excited about I'm excited for you. 167 00:08:49,840 --> 00:08:53,079 Speaker 2: Thank you. How to was your mother out yesterday? Because 168 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 2: you know, we got to self promote. 169 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 1: I was on a television show interviewing someone who is 170 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 1: a very smart money guy economists, not an economist, but 171 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:06,679 Speaker 1: someone who does does what you do, and he was expressing, 172 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:10,280 Speaker 1: I think a lot of anxiety about the fact that 173 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:16,320 Speaker 1: the market seemed to be behaving quite rationally at this moment. 174 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: Is that still true and can you explain to us why. 175 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:22,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, A couple things here, So it depends which market 176 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:24,560 Speaker 4: you're talking about, right, So the stock market was the 177 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:28,280 Speaker 4: primary focus of most people, most citizens in this country 178 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:31,199 Speaker 4: when we were you know, post liberation day. I say 179 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:34,959 Speaker 4: that obviously in air quotes, because we saw the S 180 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 4: and P koreem lower. That's the largest, you know, stock 181 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:40,840 Speaker 4: market in the US or at least indussy. And you know, 182 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 4: but there's other markets, right. There's the US treasury market, 183 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 4: which you know is basically one of the most important 184 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 4: you know, interest rates that a lot of stuff is 185 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 4: kind of quoted against. Right. And then there was the 186 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 4: currency market, the US dollar. 187 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:55,839 Speaker 1: I want you to stop and talk about the treasury market, 188 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 1: because that's been the really important indicator of this moment. 189 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 2: This treasury market is bond people. 190 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:06,120 Speaker 1: Usually when the market goes down by bonds because it's 191 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:08,400 Speaker 1: a hedge against volatility. 192 00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 2: But that's not what's happening right now. 193 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:14,679 Speaker 4: Right, So Americans have been accustomed to buying US treasury 194 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 4: bonds because the fact that the US Treasury is not 195 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:20,000 Speaker 4: going to default, right, And so you have this incidence 196 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:22,200 Speaker 4: where if you're pulling money, let's say, out of the 197 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:25,200 Speaker 4: stock market because you think it's risky for whatever reason, 198 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:28,440 Speaker 4: you can park money in the treasury market. Okay. But 199 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:30,800 Speaker 4: the problem is in this last couple months or so, 200 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:33,360 Speaker 4: is that some of the biggest holders of our debt 201 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 4: of US treasuries are China, are Japan. And when you 202 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:41,359 Speaker 4: come at some of these countries with like really exorbitant 203 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:44,559 Speaker 4: tariff rates and they are getting ready to go into 204 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 4: a protracted trade war because they don't want to be 205 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:51,400 Speaker 4: bullied right into basically eating this kind of a whole 206 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 4: new world order as it relates to trade in such 207 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 4: a short period of time. They have leverage, they own 208 00:10:57,280 --> 00:11:00,640 Speaker 4: these treasuries, right, if they start selling them, that means 209 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 4: interest rates go higher. And you know, when you think 210 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:05,960 Speaker 4: back to back in you know, March or so, when 211 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 4: Treasury Secretary Besson started to kind of prepare investors for 212 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 4: what might come right if they start, you know, kind 213 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 4: of putting these big tariffs on, they said, we're more 214 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 4: focused on the ten year treasure yield. They want that 215 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 4: to go lower. They have to refinance a lot of debt. 216 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:24,440 Speaker 4: The higher the treasure yield is, the more expensive it 217 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:27,520 Speaker 4: is to refinance that debt. And they said, we're not 218 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:30,880 Speaker 4: worried about the stock market. Well, the stock market koreamed 219 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 4: in early April, and the US ten year treasure yield 220 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 4: went up. Why because there were foreign sellers of our debt. 221 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 4: It did the exact opposite of what the Treasury and 222 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 4: the White House wanted to happen. And that's why, that's 223 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 4: why we had that first taco experience back on April ninth, 224 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 4: which got the stock market going back higher. But the 225 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 4: real problem is that the US ten year treasure yield 226 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:56,440 Speaker 4: is stuck at four point four or five percent, and 227 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 4: it was where you know, it basically was in early April. 228 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 4: And the US dollar has not rallied because those same 229 00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:06,320 Speaker 4: sellers of treasuries have also been selling dollars and dollar 230 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 4: denominated assets. 231 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 1: So the dollar is down, the debt is more expensive, right. 232 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 4: I would think about it this way. So the dollar 233 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:18,520 Speaker 4: is where it was in early April, and US treasury 234 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 4: yields are basically in the ten year about the same spot. 235 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:23,760 Speaker 4: So to the point you were making about that market 236 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 4: participant who says that the markets are not acting rationally, 237 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 4: well that's the stock markets not acting rationally. Basically, investors 238 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 4: are saying that the taco thing is going to happen. 239 00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 4: It's going to happen again. He's going to chick it 240 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 4: out again because pretty soon we're going to get to 241 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:42,439 Speaker 4: that ninety day period where he pushed out reciprocal tariffs 242 00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:45,680 Speaker 4: right on the Chinese. He tweeted out last night that 243 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:48,080 Speaker 4: g is going to be a hard guy to do 244 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:50,840 Speaker 4: a deal with. I think he's already lowering expectations there. 245 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 4: So then the question is do they ratchet it back 246 00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:55,959 Speaker 4: up right, because we know that Chinese are going to 247 00:12:56,040 --> 00:12:58,280 Speaker 4: ratchet it back up. And it brings me back to 248 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 4: the first Trump administration. They put tariffs on China in 249 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:05,959 Speaker 4: March of twenty eighteen. They did not have a framework 250 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:09,920 Speaker 4: for a Phase one deal until January of twenty twenty. 251 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 4: If you think trade wars are easy to prosecute, well 252 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:16,319 Speaker 4: good luck with that. We've already seen that they're very difficult. 253 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 4: And we also know that our major adversary is going 254 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:21,920 Speaker 4: to call our bluff. And it's also interesting to know 255 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:25,040 Speaker 4: that the first two countries that we came after, Mexico 256 00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 4: and Canada to where our biggest trading partners, have yet 257 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:30,080 Speaker 4: to come to the table. And I think that emboldens 258 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 4: the Chinese. Also. 259 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 1: I want to talk about Mexico and Canada because what 260 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 1: happened there was such a self inflicted wound, right Mexico 261 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:40,600 Speaker 1: and Canada. You have to work really hard to make 262 00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 1: these people furious, and he did right, especially Canada, like 263 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:46,679 Speaker 1: they're run by a banker. 264 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:48,360 Speaker 2: At this point. He's a liberal. 265 00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:51,600 Speaker 1: All he wants is to not have drama tried as 266 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:54,560 Speaker 1: hard as possible to keep Brexit from blowing up the 267 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:59,400 Speaker 1: UK economy. Now, Brexit fucking disaster. But Mark Carney is 268 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 1: really like the leader you would want, Like, I mean, 269 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 1: isn't he kind of your and mind too a little 270 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 1: bit our dream president? 271 00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:06,960 Speaker 2: Yeah? 272 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 4: I mean, you know, here's a guy who actually has 273 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 4: a strong fundamental knowledge of how markets work. 274 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:12,640 Speaker 3: Right. 275 00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:16,480 Speaker 4: He understands the inner complexities of what we just went through. Right, 276 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 4: what does the treasury market mean? What are interest rates mean? 277 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 4: What is FED policy, which is meant to be independent 278 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 4: of politics? What does that mean? What does the stock 279 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 4: market tell you at certain times? The stock market, you 280 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 4: hear this expression all the time, is a discounting mechanism, right, 281 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:33,720 Speaker 4: It looks at all the available news, and then investors 282 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 4: kind of put their money to work. And so you 283 00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 4: could say, right now, maybe that is what the stock 284 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 4: market is telling you, that the worst case scenarios are 285 00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:44,640 Speaker 4: off the table and maybe some like cooler heads like 286 00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 4: Mark Carney might prevail. If you think about Mexico, shine, 287 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:52,720 Speaker 4: they haven't really been engaging in a way that's particularly antagonistic. 288 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 4: The EU has suggested that they will come to the table, 289 00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 4: but they don't know who they're negotiating with or what 290 00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 4: we want that sort of thing. The UK that deal 291 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 4: was a bit of a fugazy They just said, let's 292 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 4: just get this out. 293 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:06,960 Speaker 2: One works of a deal, right. 294 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 4: So to your point, I think that there's like some 295 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:12,920 Speaker 4: definitely level headed folks. But then let's go to a 296 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 4: topic us. Let's go to a topic that I know 297 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 4: is near and dear to your heart. Somebody who's kind 298 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 4: of off kilter a little bit. That would be Elon Musk, 299 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 4: who just left the administration and now all of a 300 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:26,960 Speaker 4: sudden he's got some real big issues with the tax policy, 301 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 4: the tax plan. And don't think for a second that 302 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:32,960 Speaker 4: these things are not kind of related, because they really 303 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:34,960 Speaker 4: are important if you think about it. If we're trying 304 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:37,680 Speaker 4: to reorient global trade, if we're trying to work on 305 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:40,120 Speaker 4: bringing down our national debt, I. 306 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 2: Mean, to re orient global trade. 307 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 1: In tariffs are that it's like taking a chainsaw, I mean, 308 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 1: much better to give incentives to use a carrot rather 309 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 1: than a step. I also wonder how much of Elon 310 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:58,880 Speaker 1: Musk's newfound frugality is his irritation that EV credits are 311 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 1: no longer the I mean, this is a guy who 312 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 1: democratic legislation created him, right, he became the richest man 313 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:10,520 Speaker 1: in the world, EV tax credits, all of this sort 314 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 1: of you know, the help that his company's got. 315 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, the one thing I just say about 316 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:20,600 Speaker 4: Elon and you know, I think he's a much more 317 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 4: effective chaos agent than Donald Trump. 318 00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:23,320 Speaker 5: Right. 319 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 4: But the one thing that's consistent between the two of 320 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 4: them is they always say the quiet part out loud, right, 321 00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 4: And so Elon coming out this tax bill, he has 322 00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 4: not really mentioned, you know, these EV tax credits. He's 323 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 4: gone back and forth on that. By the way, over 324 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:39,920 Speaker 4: the last few years, he's gone back and forth over 325 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 4: you know, some sort of trade barriers as it relates 326 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:45,000 Speaker 4: to China and evs. We don't really know where he 327 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:47,440 Speaker 4: stands on this. I think one of the positions as 328 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 4: it relates to Tesla in particular, has been that they're 329 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:52,760 Speaker 4: in a much better spot than not say GM and 330 00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:56,160 Speaker 4: Ford to kind of have these credits go away. But 331 00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 4: that's actually not the case anymore. The fundamentals of their 332 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 4: business could not be worse. Right now, the auto gross margins, 333 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 4: the profit that they make on their evs is now 334 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:06,679 Speaker 4: in line with that of GM and Ford. GM and 335 00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:09,360 Speaker 4: Ford are pulling back from the ev market and they're 336 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:12,199 Speaker 4: going more for these plug in hybrids. So when I 337 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,120 Speaker 4: think about the way that he has gone about kind of, 338 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 4: you know, dealing with a price war, the Chinese are 339 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 4: eating their lunch. He's expected to have the second consecutive 340 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 4: decline in deliveries this year at a time where the 341 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 4: price war is eating into their margin. So he needs 342 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 4: these credits. It's very important. But they haven't said it yet, 343 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:34,480 Speaker 4: and Trump hasn't come out and said it yet, and 344 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 4: this thing is going to be a bit worse. And 345 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 4: I just think that the lobbing of the grenade at 346 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 4: the tax bill is something that basically he's trying to 347 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:45,879 Speaker 4: maybe reorient the kind of what's going on with tax 348 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 4: and the expectations about cuts to lower the taxes versus 349 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:52,360 Speaker 4: what's going on with trade and the fact that our 350 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 4: government appears to be mired in problems with both of 351 00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 4: them at the same time. It goes back to the 352 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:01,840 Speaker 4: first administration. They went for tats Gary Khan came in. 353 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:04,440 Speaker 4: He wanted to get tax cuts through. They got them through. 354 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 4: It was a tailwind for the economy, it was a 355 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:09,800 Speaker 4: tailwind for the stock market, and then they focused on 356 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 4: terrafts and trade. And I'm not saying that was effective, 357 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,360 Speaker 4: but it was a much more effective way about it. 358 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:17,080 Speaker 2: Oh much more right. 359 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:19,840 Speaker 1: I mean, you choice the economy with the tax cuts 360 00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 1: and then you go in there with the tariffs and 361 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:26,680 Speaker 1: it ends up being actually quite good because it tamps 362 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:29,439 Speaker 1: down some of the inflationary you know. 363 00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:32,360 Speaker 2: I mean that with Gary Cohen is not the same. 364 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 1: As you know, the people who are in charge right now, 365 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:37,600 Speaker 1: which is Donald Trump's lizard brain. I want to talk 366 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:42,359 Speaker 1: about China for another minute, because there's so much anxiety 367 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 1: about China right what the next step is here? What's 368 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 1: happening with Taiwan? We are really vulnerable to them. Also, 369 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:51,639 Speaker 1: the other thing I want to ask you about selling 370 00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:55,000 Speaker 1: the bonds. I didn't realize that this was actually China 371 00:18:55,080 --> 00:19:01,240 Speaker 1: Japan selling bonds. So that is now that's indisputable. It's 372 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:04,159 Speaker 1: not like technical traders. 373 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:07,000 Speaker 4: No, I mean, like there's definitely market participants here and 374 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:10,120 Speaker 4: around the globe who basically have a trade on they 375 00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:12,640 Speaker 4: called the carry trade. They kind of sell over there 376 00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:15,000 Speaker 4: and they use the proceeds and they buy higher yielding 377 00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:17,040 Speaker 4: assets over here. And one of the reasons why you 378 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:20,439 Speaker 4: saw that market volatility in most markets. You know, this 379 00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 4: is back in April, but we also saw it in 380 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:25,679 Speaker 4: late July in early August. When you see an unwind 381 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:28,879 Speaker 4: of that, that's when you see markets go haywire. And 382 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:32,160 Speaker 4: so when you think about who has the leverage right 383 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:35,360 Speaker 4: in a situation like this, the largest holders of your 384 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,120 Speaker 4: debt have the leverage right. We also had a situation 385 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:39,960 Speaker 4: a few weeks ago where moody is one of the 386 00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:43,199 Speaker 4: big rating agencies, came out and lowered the rating on 387 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:46,840 Speaker 4: our debt, which also makes us vulnerable. Treasury Secretary Bessett 388 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,560 Speaker 4: said the other day that we will not default on 389 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 4: our debt, but we almost did, you know, about twelve 390 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:54,760 Speaker 4: years ago. And so there's a lot of unknowns here. 391 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:56,480 Speaker 4: And so when you think about I'll just kind of 392 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:58,400 Speaker 4: bring it back to China, which you wanted to kind 393 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 4: of talk about. You know, Okay, let's take the over 394 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 4: on what they might do with Taiwan. You know, some 395 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,040 Speaker 4: of the easiest things they might do, or some sorts 396 00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 4: of blockades or some sort of trade sort of situations 397 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,600 Speaker 4: and that sort of thing. That is important because when 398 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:13,919 Speaker 4: you think about generative AI chips and this is the 399 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,520 Speaker 4: new world order that we live in. This is going 400 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 4: to be the most important commodity going forward, especially as 401 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 4: we deal with our adversaries going forward. They are made 402 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:27,320 Speaker 4: in Taiwan, Okay, so if the Chinese try to disrupt 403 00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 4: anything as it relates to Taiwanese production of those chips, 404 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,760 Speaker 4: that could be a real problem for the entire globe. Right, 405 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 4: So I think about, you know, how this kind of 406 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:39,800 Speaker 4: new world order is going to be set, Well, we 407 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 4: can't afford to have any disruption there. So when we 408 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 4: think about China, you know, the national security as it 409 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:48,280 Speaker 4: relates to supply chains is really important. So how do 410 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,600 Speaker 4: the Chinese have leverage on our manufacturing? Okay? They are 411 00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:54,640 Speaker 4: thirty percent of the global manufacturing, right, so we went 412 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 4: through this with COVID that was a bit of a problem. 413 00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 4: They also own a lot of the rare earth materials 414 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:02,639 Speaker 4: that into EV batteries and magnets in this sort, and 415 00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 4: they also own the purchasing power of let's say Boeing planes, right. 416 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:10,240 Speaker 4: So a headline that hit today is that they're considering 417 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:14,679 Speaker 4: by hundreds of planes from Airbus, which is obviously you know, 418 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 4: a European company, it's French, and that would be in 419 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:20,760 Speaker 4: place of Boeing planes. Boeing has been mired in problems 420 00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:22,480 Speaker 4: for the last six or seven years. They had those 421 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:25,320 Speaker 4: plane crashes, these issues with the seven forty seven Max, 422 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:28,280 Speaker 4: and they've been missed you executing for a while. That 423 00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:30,919 Speaker 4: could be a real big hit to our economy, not 424 00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,760 Speaker 4: just from a manufacturing standpoint, but really from our stature, 425 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 4: you know around the globe for American exceptionalism. 426 00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:39,720 Speaker 2: American exceptionalism. Ha haha. 427 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 1: It's so funny that you just said this thing about Boeing, 428 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:46,680 Speaker 1: because I really do think part of what happened with Boeing, 429 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:50,879 Speaker 1: right is a question of regulation, right. I mean, things 430 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: got at a hand because the regulatory environment wasn't what 431 00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:58,680 Speaker 1: it needed to be to make sure these planes were safe. 432 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 1: And remember Trump was in fact president from twenty sixteen 433 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 1: to twenty twenty. I just wonder how much like one 434 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,520 Speaker 1: of the things Trump loves to do is dismantle regulation, 435 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 1: and we never ever see why that's bad, right, We 436 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:19,400 Speaker 1: only ever see him dismantling regulation and then a catastrophe 437 00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:23,320 Speaker 1: like that trained derailment in Ohio. I feel like there 438 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 1: is a straight line between deregulation and environmental fallout but 439 00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 1: also economic fallout. 440 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean that's the story of the two thousands, right, 441 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 4: and a lead up to the financial crisis. You know, 442 00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:38,160 Speaker 4: we had some significant regulations as it really to our 443 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 4: financial institutions, and you know it was the Clinton administration 444 00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 4: that actually rolled a puncture those back, right. And you know, 445 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,199 Speaker 4: as you think about folks who have incentives right to 446 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,960 Speaker 4: kind of take financial instruments and kind of repackage them 447 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 4: and do them in a way where they can make 448 00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:54,680 Speaker 4: a lot of money on them and they can get 449 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:56,960 Speaker 4: around regulations. I mean, that's really what happened in the 450 00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,400 Speaker 4: financial crisis, and you have thought on the way out 451 00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,679 Speaker 4: of that where so many individuals were really burned. They 452 00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:04,800 Speaker 4: were the bag holders in that, and you had you know, 453 00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,240 Speaker 4: Elizabeth Warren put in the CFPB and all that sort 454 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:08,800 Speaker 4: of stuff. And I think this is the point you're 455 00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,360 Speaker 4: getting to, is that the administration comes in in this 456 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:13,439 Speaker 4: new administration, it's one of the first things they do 457 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:17,560 Speaker 4: they get rid of the Consumer Protection Organization that was 458 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:21,479 Speaker 4: meant to shield everyday citizens from that sort of you know, 459 00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:23,240 Speaker 4: predatory behavior. 460 00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:26,200 Speaker 2: And so here's because of two thousand and eight. 461 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:28,640 Speaker 4: Because of the financial crisis, and then you can look 462 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:32,080 Speaker 4: to twenty and eighteen. So the Trump administration rolled back 463 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:37,199 Speaker 4: some regulation about capital levels for smaller banks. Okay, so 464 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 4: do you remember in March of twenty twenty three, Silicon 465 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:41,880 Speaker 4: Valley Bank went down. There was a handful of other 466 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,919 Speaker 4: banks that went down. You can draw a line back 467 00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 4: to these capital requirements that were rolled back in the 468 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 4: twenty eighteen deregulation. And we lost some really important banks, 469 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:55,919 Speaker 4: and we also had some threats to the financial system 470 00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,320 Speaker 4: at the time, different than two thousand and eight, but 471 00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 4: in some ways they could have had big not gun effects. 472 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:02,480 Speaker 4: And what did the government have to do And this 473 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:04,880 Speaker 4: was under obviously the biderministration. They had to go bail 474 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 4: them out, right, And so we see this again and again. 475 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,959 Speaker 4: If you give these financiers, if you give these folks 476 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,680 Speaker 4: enough room or enough rope, they will ultimately hang themselves 477 00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:16,160 Speaker 4: because the incentives are too great in the near term, 478 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:19,080 Speaker 4: and they know that they can socialize the losses if 479 00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:19,760 Speaker 4: things go bad. 480 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, I was just going to say, privatize the gain, 481 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:26,880 Speaker 1: socialize the losses. Speaking of socializing the losses, the BBB, 482 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:32,200 Speaker 1: big beautiful bullshit bell will in fact cut a lot 483 00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,719 Speaker 1: of things right. It'll cut snap benefits, food for hungry children, 484 00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:39,639 Speaker 1: it will cut Medicaid, which will cut rural hospitals, nursing homes, 485 00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:43,399 Speaker 1: but it will also provide these insane tax cut no 486 00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:46,479 Speaker 1: tax on tips. I mean, what is that even? Like, 487 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:49,840 Speaker 1: no tax on tips? How would that even be implemented? 488 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,680 Speaker 1: What does that look like? And what would the financial 489 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:55,000 Speaker 1: sort of fall out be? Right? I mean, clearly it'll 490 00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,679 Speaker 1: juice the public markets, but what do you think it'll 491 00:24:57,720 --> 00:24:59,040 Speaker 1: look like in six months? 492 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:01,520 Speaker 4: Well, it's funny that sun tips thing is obviously a 493 00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:03,880 Speaker 4: populous sort of move. When he would go to Nevada 494 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,439 Speaker 4: during the campaign, he would talk about that and you know, 495 00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:08,919 Speaker 4: and again this goes back to maybe some of his 496 00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,920 Speaker 4: political genius, but his lack of acumen when it comes 497 00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,359 Speaker 4: to policy and the likes. So to me, that is 498 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 4: probably a bit of a rounding era if you think 499 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,280 Speaker 4: about all the folks that will benefit from that, however 500 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:23,119 Speaker 4: they implement it, versus the expected maybe ten thirteen million 501 00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:26,440 Speaker 4: people in America. We're going to lose access to healthcare 502 00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,560 Speaker 4: or to your point about snap or you know, free 503 00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:33,080 Speaker 4: lunches and breakfast for you know, students of you know, 504 00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:36,000 Speaker 4: lower income sort of families in the like, and I mean, 505 00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:38,960 Speaker 4: those are the big things and ultimately, I think those 506 00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:40,560 Speaker 4: are the things that are going to get felt right 507 00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:42,159 Speaker 4: out of the gate. Do you feel them? How do 508 00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:45,119 Speaker 4: these things get implemented? You know, who knows. But at 509 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:47,639 Speaker 4: the end of the day, I mean this sort of 510 00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:50,040 Speaker 4: cuts in a lot of red states. And that's the 511 00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:52,080 Speaker 4: other thing. If you think about some of these policies 512 00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:54,040 Speaker 4: that were put in place during the Biden administration, you 513 00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:55,879 Speaker 4: could say, well, the IRA and the Chips Acts and 514 00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,720 Speaker 4: all this sort of stuff, they deliberately put them in 515 00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,600 Speaker 4: some of these red states, so the folks would actually 516 00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,840 Speaker 4: have all the benefits of this government spend if you 517 00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,160 Speaker 4: think about it, right, and it goes back to really 518 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 4: a social safety net. If Republicans want to push through 519 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,440 Speaker 4: a four and a half trillion dollar tax cut over 520 00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 4: the next ten years and throw three or four trillion 521 00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:19,119 Speaker 4: dollars onto the national debt, which is the thing that 522 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:22,440 Speaker 4: they're supposed to care about, then they better be prepared 523 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:26,200 Speaker 4: for the repercussions because they lose the soul of the party. Right. 524 00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:28,240 Speaker 4: If this is what and this is why Ran Paul 525 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:30,399 Speaker 4: and some of these folks, and even Elon Musk, we 526 00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:32,919 Speaker 4: don't know Elon Mus's intention. I never knew him to 527 00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:35,440 Speaker 4: be a fiscal hawk by any means, and you think 528 00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:39,680 Speaker 4: of the beneficiaries he's been able to enjoy from government spending. 529 00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,320 Speaker 4: But this is one where I don't think it gets 530 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:45,359 Speaker 4: fixed too quickly. I don't think President Trump, as his 531 00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:49,080 Speaker 4: approval rating goes down over these economic issues, especially as 532 00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,240 Speaker 4: the trade thing gets pushed out, is going to have 533 00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:53,879 Speaker 4: this sort of leverage over the Senate as he did 534 00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:55,800 Speaker 4: over the House in the last few weeks. 535 00:26:56,000 --> 00:27:00,919 Speaker 2: That's the twenty four tillion dollar question. Danny. Then, thank you, 536 00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:02,720 Speaker 2: thank you. I hope you'll come back. 537 00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 4: Thanks Bally. Great to be here. 538 00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:06,879 Speaker 2: Allan L. 539 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:10,200 Speaker 1: Rod is the President and CEO of the Pulaski Institute 540 00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:12,400 Speaker 1: and a contributor to Liberal Currents. 541 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:16,240 Speaker 2: Welcome to Fast Politics, Alan L. Rod. 542 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:18,960 Speaker 1: You write a bunch of stuff, very smart. You write 543 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,360 Speaker 1: for Liberal Currents, which I think of as a very 544 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:26,040 Speaker 1: very smart literary magazine in the tradition of the New Republic, 545 00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 1: a little more lefty. And I want to talk about 546 00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,919 Speaker 1: this essay, which is why I knew we had to 547 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,560 Speaker 1: have you on, because I was like, Holy moly, this 548 00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:39,000 Speaker 1: is how I feel this. Why didn't I write this piece? 549 00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:43,480 Speaker 1: And the title is You're not crazy America has gone mad. 550 00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:47,080 Speaker 2: So talk to me about sort of how you got here. 551 00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:50,159 Speaker 5: I've only been doing the sort of writing commentary pieces 552 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,040 Speaker 5: for a few years, and really it kind of came 553 00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:55,880 Speaker 5: out of I head also trying to get this policy 554 00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:58,399 Speaker 5: type organization off the ground here in Arkansas called the 555 00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:03,560 Speaker 5: Plaski Institution that I started in twenty twenty one, and 556 00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,760 Speaker 5: it is focused on a lot of the problems I 557 00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,320 Speaker 5: think I described in this piece and some other pieces, 558 00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:15,119 Speaker 5: which is challenges that are happening with democracy and with popularism, 559 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,119 Speaker 5: not just in the US, but in really a lot 560 00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:20,560 Speaker 5: of Western countries where there's a lot of breakdown in 561 00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,399 Speaker 5: not just the electoral politics, but also just sort of 562 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:26,480 Speaker 5: broad cultural commitments to the important things that make a 563 00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:29,399 Speaker 5: liberal democracy work. But I've tried to think about that 564 00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:31,560 Speaker 5: in sort of heartland places, So that was sort of 565 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:33,960 Speaker 5: the idea I started writing to sort of try to 566 00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:35,879 Speaker 5: get these ideas out there and bring attention to what 567 00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:38,440 Speaker 5: I'm trying to do. And I've been really lucky. I 568 00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:42,400 Speaker 5: think that that's turned into its own sort of separate 569 00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:45,640 Speaker 5: and really rewarding journey. In terms of I started writing 570 00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:49,800 Speaker 5: an arc digital back in twenty twenty two, and really 571 00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:53,239 Speaker 5: clicked with Brady Belvite or there and Nicholas Grossman, and 572 00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:55,720 Speaker 5: luckily got to do some pieces for other places. And 573 00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,680 Speaker 5: Liberal Currents was a place I got connected with thanks 574 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 5: to anac Manus, who's actually a fellow at the plast Constitution. 575 00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:05,800 Speaker 5: He said, you know, reach out to Adam Gurry if 576 00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:07,520 Speaker 5: you're just sting in pitching them, and I did, and 577 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:09,400 Speaker 5: it was one of those kind of we all just 578 00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:12,400 Speaker 5: sort of clicked. I got in the little discord with 579 00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,880 Speaker 5: the other editors and writers at Liberal Currents and there 580 00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:18,320 Speaker 5: was a I think a very happy marriage of thought 581 00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:21,400 Speaker 5: and opinion, and so lip O Currens became you know, 582 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:22,640 Speaker 5: I'm a contributing enditor. 583 00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:25,600 Speaker 1: Now, yeah, that's so great. But let's talk about what 584 00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:30,040 Speaker 1: this idea is. So you start with a passage from 585 00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:34,920 Speaker 1: Hannah Rand's origins of totalitarianism. Never has our future been 586 00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:39,160 Speaker 1: more unpredictable. Never have we depended so much on political 587 00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:42,840 Speaker 1: forces that cannot be trusted to follow the rules. And 588 00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:45,320 Speaker 1: I think this is the most important point here, of 589 00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:49,800 Speaker 1: common sense and self interest forces that look like sheer 590 00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:53,960 Speaker 1: insanity if judged by the standard of other centuries. So 591 00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:58,320 Speaker 1: much of Trump administration at this moment. You know, from 592 00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:04,280 Speaker 1: RFK Junior to Elon Musk, there's so many things that 593 00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:07,120 Speaker 1: they are doing in this administration that strike me as 594 00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:11,600 Speaker 1: just completely I mean, obviously there's often profit motives behind it, 595 00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:15,200 Speaker 1: but I wonder if you could just talk us through 596 00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:17,840 Speaker 1: some of these things that you see. 597 00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:20,200 Speaker 5: Yeah, So, I think I'm really trying to do at 598 00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:22,760 Speaker 5: this piece is to capture something that I think is 599 00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:26,240 Speaker 5: happening that's observable at a few different levels. Right, So 600 00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:29,560 Speaker 5: when I think about you know, I'm not being sort 601 00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,880 Speaker 5: of literal, right and kind of madness. I understand mental 602 00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:35,640 Speaker 5: illness and that language can sometimes be touchy for people. 603 00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:39,080 Speaker 5: But what I am trying to capture is there are 604 00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:42,160 Speaker 5: a lot of ways in which we are not behaving 605 00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:44,840 Speaker 5: in ways that really makes sense. Right. You know, you 606 00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:47,840 Speaker 5: mentioned profit motives, So there's clearly some self interest in 607 00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,120 Speaker 5: the Trump administration, but there's a lot of things where 608 00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 5: the kind of even just rational principles of self preservation 609 00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 5: self interest don't feel like they're functioning. I mean, you know, 610 00:30:56,640 --> 00:31:00,080 Speaker 5: what we're doing to our health system right now is crazy, 611 00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,760 Speaker 5: and even since I wrote the piece, it's gotten crazier. Right. 612 00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:06,000 Speaker 5: He said he wants to basically withdraw vaccines for most 613 00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:10,200 Speaker 5: age groups. Right, there's all kinds of further downsizing of 614 00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:13,120 Speaker 5: the FDA. They want to take fluoride, not just not 615 00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:16,200 Speaker 5: you know, earlier they were talking about discouraging fluoride. Now 616 00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:19,440 Speaker 5: there's talks about banning it in multiple states. It's really, 617 00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,120 Speaker 5: I mean, this is just in the wealthiest country in 618 00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:26,320 Speaker 5: the world, crazy, right, And he talks about fixing chronic disease, 619 00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:28,840 Speaker 5: even and even if you wanted to take him at 620 00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:31,400 Speaker 5: face value in that that's not being done right because 621 00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:35,400 Speaker 5: they're defunding all of these research initiatives that have run 622 00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:38,160 Speaker 5: for a year, some of them decades on the sorts 623 00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:40,760 Speaker 5: of disease as he says are important. So I think 624 00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:42,640 Speaker 5: the Health Science Fund is a good place to look 625 00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:45,880 Speaker 5: at that because you have individual kind of madness, you 626 00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:48,440 Speaker 5: have influencers or are sort of peddling this stuff, and 627 00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:50,880 Speaker 5: you can see how it got into the groundwater over 628 00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:54,240 Speaker 5: time in the US. But you also have the institutional 629 00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:57,840 Speaker 5: problem of like, our institutions are not behaving the way 630 00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:00,680 Speaker 5: they should behave they are fully at this point captured 631 00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:05,920 Speaker 5: by this, I think completely. I kind of feel dystopian 632 00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:09,200 Speaker 5: to me world view of yes, it's grift. But I 633 00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:11,959 Speaker 5: always think that grift is a bad way to think 634 00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:14,360 Speaker 5: about it sometimes because that implies it's just as simple 635 00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:16,719 Speaker 5: as oh, they're just telling you a lie so they 636 00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:19,360 Speaker 5: can get money. And I think that it's just far 637 00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:25,200 Speaker 5: more irrational and sort of dysfunctional and chaotic than that. 638 00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:29,200 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I wonder what you think about MAHA Make 639 00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:32,600 Speaker 1: America Healthy Again. I wonder how much of MAHA is 640 00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:34,840 Speaker 1: an It seems to me there's a straight line between 641 00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:39,560 Speaker 1: the pandemic, MAHA sort of the corruption of multi level 642 00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:41,400 Speaker 1: marketing and MAGA. 643 00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:43,360 Speaker 2: Do you think that's right? And how? 644 00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:44,040 Speaker 4: Yeah? 645 00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 5: I mean, I do think that that's correct. I think 646 00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:47,840 Speaker 5: what you saw on the pandemic was something that was 647 00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,880 Speaker 5: already starting, which was a lot of these sort of 648 00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:55,600 Speaker 5: health influencers who have just deeply on scientific beliefs about 649 00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,280 Speaker 5: a lot of different things. That was really the I 650 00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:00,560 Speaker 5: think the convergence point with them in MAGA, because there 651 00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:03,320 Speaker 5: was a huge amount of objection to just the various 652 00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:06,520 Speaker 5: health precautions that were being sure. I think in the 653 00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:10,160 Speaker 5: pandemic you saw I think a convergence. It had been 654 00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 5: building for a bit, but you saw this convergence between 655 00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:17,320 Speaker 5: a lot of health influencers and people who were more 656 00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:22,040 Speaker 5: I think you're sort of typical RFK type person, voter 657 00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:25,360 Speaker 5: or just kind of interested in his stuff. That kind 658 00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:28,160 Speaker 5: of person really get into the sort of maga world. 659 00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:29,720 Speaker 5: And that's kind of what Maha is right. It is 660 00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:32,440 Speaker 5: this convergence of those two things. And some of that 661 00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:34,680 Speaker 5: was about vaccine hesititency, but I think a lot of 662 00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,400 Speaker 5: it was just more broadly about you know, the sort 663 00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:39,720 Speaker 5: of existential dread of the pandemic and a lot of 664 00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:45,479 Speaker 5: very unscientific and emotional reactions right to the pandemic. And 665 00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:49,600 Speaker 5: so I think what is troubling to me about like Maha, 666 00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:52,520 Speaker 5: is some of it is absolutely grift, but some of 667 00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,720 Speaker 5: it is belief, right, and I think we have to 668 00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:56,480 Speaker 5: reckon with that. 669 00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:56,800 Speaker 1: Right. 670 00:33:56,880 --> 00:34:00,000 Speaker 5: If I thought it was all just opportunism and grift, 671 00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:01,680 Speaker 5: I don't think I would have written an essay called, 672 00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:04,760 Speaker 5: you know, We've all Gone mad, because then it would 673 00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:08,160 Speaker 5: just be sort of we're all cynical and we're all opportunists. 674 00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:11,040 Speaker 5: But really, you know, for people to just kind of 675 00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:16,919 Speaker 5: at once in large numbers reject these advancements we saw, 676 00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:19,200 Speaker 5: I think the pandemic was just rocket fuel for this stuff. 677 00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:21,760 Speaker 5: It pushed something that had been there for a long time, 678 00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:25,520 Speaker 5: existing in a kind of particular corner of Instagram and YouTube, 679 00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:29,680 Speaker 5: and it just propelled it into a collision with the 680 00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:32,040 Speaker 5: maga stuff that had been coming really since since Trump 681 00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:35,640 Speaker 5: came down the escalator, and that combination I think has 682 00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:39,600 Speaker 5: been really quite powerful and dangerous. 683 00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:40,280 Speaker 2: Oh for sure. 684 00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:43,719 Speaker 1: And I do think like part of it is there 685 00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:49,000 Speaker 1: is real anxiety in modern life about what all of 686 00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:52,080 Speaker 1: the things around us do and what they cause and 687 00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:55,320 Speaker 1: what the possible. You know, we have younger people getting 688 00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:57,680 Speaker 1: cancer things like that, that is real. 689 00:34:58,400 --> 00:34:59,920 Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know my own person. 690 00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:04,440 Speaker 1: Pecadillo is why is RFK Junior, you know, not focusing 691 00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:07,520 Speaker 1: on the stuff that he you know, there's some of 692 00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:10,479 Speaker 1: this stuff is not as crazy, right, this stuff about 693 00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,960 Speaker 1: organic food or whatever, But that's not what he's focused on, right, 694 00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:18,720 Speaker 1: He's focused on the stuff that's really vaccines, the stuff 695 00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:21,640 Speaker 1: that the stuff that we were really scared he was 696 00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:23,319 Speaker 1: going to do he is in fact doing. 697 00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:27,640 Speaker 5: Yeah, there is a kind of I think fundamental disorder. 698 00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:29,120 Speaker 5: And this is kind of what I do mean is 699 00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,200 Speaker 5: like to his thinking and to a lot of this 700 00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:34,520 Speaker 5: thinking where he'll talk about and I think what it 701 00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:38,040 Speaker 5: means is that we misunderstand him when we just let 702 00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:40,960 Speaker 5: him say, oh, chronic disease is a real problem. We 703 00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:42,600 Speaker 5: take that at face value when we say, that's not 704 00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:45,839 Speaker 5: so crazy. But that's not actually the sort of most 705 00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:49,400 Speaker 5: front facing part of his belief system, Right, that's actually 706 00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:52,640 Speaker 5: kind of a that's really a vestige of all this 707 00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:55,839 Speaker 5: other stuff, right, and so, and I think that's made 708 00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:58,040 Speaker 5: obvious in the fact that, like, when he actually says 709 00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:00,279 Speaker 5: we're going to fix chronic disease, they're not doing that. 710 00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:03,080 Speaker 5: And the things he seems to think count as chronic 711 00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:06,600 Speaker 5: disease is also a bit strange. Right, So you already 712 00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:09,719 Speaker 5: are in a weird place. Once you probe that language 713 00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:12,960 Speaker 5: even a little bit, I think what I am kind 714 00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,560 Speaker 5: of You're right, there's there's this anxiety. There's this huge 715 00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:18,400 Speaker 5: amount of anxiety. And I find that really interesting in 716 00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:21,480 Speaker 5: the way anxiety has the capacity to disrupt and disorder 717 00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,439 Speaker 5: our thinking and get us to cling to sometimes very 718 00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:28,520 Speaker 5: sometimes emotionally comforting or persuasive ideas that are also quite 719 00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:31,560 Speaker 5: erratic and actually not very good for us. Right. I Mean, 720 00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:33,160 Speaker 5: there's a sense in which a lot of this stuff 721 00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:36,319 Speaker 5: I think got popular because people turn to things that 722 00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:38,120 Speaker 5: made them feel better. 723 00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:40,400 Speaker 2: They needed answer, so yeah. 724 00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:42,279 Speaker 5: Yeah, and provide answers they kind of I mean, there's 725 00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:44,600 Speaker 5: a religious aspect to this right where it kind of 726 00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:47,799 Speaker 5: is it's basically sort of like it's providing a kind 727 00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:50,919 Speaker 5: of you know, compass or map for how the world 728 00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:54,080 Speaker 5: works and where you stand in it, and a certain 729 00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:57,520 Speaker 5: set of truths that can make you feel I guess comforted. 730 00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:00,719 Speaker 5: But it's all I mean, it's very it's I think 731 00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:02,560 Speaker 5: disaggregated from reality. 732 00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,120 Speaker 4: And I do think. 733 00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:08,280 Speaker 5: That that that mixture of anxiety and disorder or what's 734 00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:11,840 Speaker 5: so troubling because it doesn't feel like people are following tradition, 735 00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:16,400 Speaker 5: the idea that the American electorate would say somebody who 736 00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:20,719 Speaker 5: wants to put this guy in power is trustworthy. I mean, 737 00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:23,120 Speaker 5: I just you know, we talk all the time like 738 00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:27,279 Speaker 5: Richard Nixon was a crook and a criminal and an opportunist, 739 00:37:27,520 --> 00:37:32,360 Speaker 5: but Richard Nixon also helped, you know, enshrining the EPA 740 00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:35,760 Speaker 5: and the Clean Air Act, because Richard Dixon wasn't actually 741 00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:38,839 Speaker 5: a crazy person, right, And that's the distinction I think 742 00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:40,759 Speaker 5: I'm kind of getting at is like Grift just to 743 00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:44,239 Speaker 5: me does not feel like an explanation for what's happening here. 744 00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:48,400 Speaker 5: Oh yeah, a disintegration of ordered thinking feels like a 745 00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:51,880 Speaker 5: better explanation. And it's happening at a cultural level, and 746 00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:54,400 Speaker 5: it's also happening at an institutional level. Institutions that are 747 00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:58,480 Speaker 5: supposed to mediate our thinking and our actions in rational 748 00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:00,799 Speaker 5: ways are not doing that. If we think of them 749 00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:05,640 Speaker 5: as communicative communicative sites, they're not functioning the way rational 750 00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:07,040 Speaker 5: communication works anymore. 751 00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:08,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. 752 00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:12,320 Speaker 1: And I think I think that's a I think that 753 00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:19,080 Speaker 1: irrationality is, you know, And I mean there's so many 754 00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:25,000 Speaker 1: different hallmarks of it, from things like the tariffs, to 755 00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:33,680 Speaker 1: things like the anti vax stuff, to the scientific stuff. 756 00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:37,719 Speaker 1: Can we talk about something that I am a little 757 00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:41,560 Speaker 1: bit obsessed with, which is this idea that Elon Musk 758 00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:44,520 Speaker 1: is the richest man in the world, has made almost 759 00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:49,480 Speaker 1: all of his money on technology, right, stuff that has 760 00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:55,920 Speaker 1: been created from science done in labs like at Harvard, Right, 761 00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:59,480 Speaker 1: the kind of stuff that's made possible by. 762 00:38:59,160 --> 00:38:59,799 Speaker 2: Things like Ana. 763 00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:04,640 Speaker 1: So why do you think, I mean that irrationality is 764 00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:07,880 Speaker 1: so striking to me? What do you think the operating 765 00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:10,319 Speaker 1: principle there is or do you think this is all 766 00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:16,319 Speaker 1: just kind of like post printing press madness that America 767 00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:17,279 Speaker 1: is engaging in. 768 00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:20,160 Speaker 5: I'm glad you said the printing press, because I do 769 00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:23,719 Speaker 5: think that, like a the the printing press challenge of 770 00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:26,840 Speaker 5: our era, right, which is social media, it is invalant. Like, yeah, 771 00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:28,840 Speaker 5: I mean, I think with Elon, it's this is a 772 00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:32,879 Speaker 5: guy who you know, I can't speak to like how 773 00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:35,719 Speaker 5: smart or insightful Elon might have been a decade ago, 774 00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:37,719 Speaker 5: but I think it's pretty obvious that for the last 775 00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:40,360 Speaker 5: few years he's spent his time. You know, he admits 776 00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:42,800 Speaker 5: to taking inordinate amounts of ketamine. 777 00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:44,799 Speaker 2: Right, and the New York Times just had a big 778 00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:45,279 Speaker 2: piece on that. 779 00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:47,560 Speaker 5: Yeah, go on, he spends like twenty hours a day 780 00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:50,680 Speaker 5: just absolutely soaking in social media, and I mean, I 781 00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:52,520 Speaker 5: think that is a place that just you know, it 782 00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:56,719 Speaker 5: obliterates your sense of up and down. So you know, 783 00:39:57,160 --> 00:39:59,640 Speaker 5: I mean, if he's just taking drugs and he's the 784 00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:01,600 Speaker 5: richest man in the world, which itself can be kind 785 00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:05,520 Speaker 5: of a narcotic, and he's spending more hours a day 786 00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:10,480 Speaker 5: than many people are awake on his own social media platform, right, 787 00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:13,640 Speaker 5: to me, that's just you're just swimming in a kind 788 00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:18,120 Speaker 5: of sea of irrational and sort of disordered behavior. I mean, 789 00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:21,560 Speaker 5: social media doesn't bring out our best in most of us. 790 00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:23,759 Speaker 5: And then you also have places like what he's turned 791 00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:26,080 Speaker 5: to accent to, which is just a full on cess pool. 792 00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:29,680 Speaker 1: Let's go another minute on the printing press here, because 793 00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:33,160 Speaker 1: I do really want to talk about that. I once 794 00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:38,279 Speaker 1: was on a panel interviewing a very famous tech bro, 795 00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:40,600 Speaker 1: you know, and he said everything. 796 00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:43,240 Speaker 2: Very you know, a lot. 797 00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:45,719 Speaker 1: Of that kind of stuff, the tech bro stuff. And 798 00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:48,840 Speaker 1: then I said to you, do you think we're better off? 799 00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:52,160 Speaker 1: And he said, well, we will eventually be better off, 800 00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:53,960 Speaker 1: but it's like the printing press, we may have one 801 00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:55,520 Speaker 1: hundred years of fuckeray. 802 00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:58,359 Speaker 2: Do you think that it's a one to one there? 803 00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:02,440 Speaker 5: No, because I think this is true of a lot 804 00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:04,600 Speaker 5: of people who are in kind of the liberally you know. 805 00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:07,279 Speaker 5: I came of age under the Obama years camp I 806 00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:10,439 Speaker 5: was at one point fairly optimistic about this stuff, right. 807 00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:13,040 Speaker 5: I was like, oh, Twitter in the Arab spring, and 808 00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:15,040 Speaker 5: like look at Facebook and like this is pretty great. 809 00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:17,200 Speaker 5: I say that as someone who did not start as 810 00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:18,759 Speaker 5: a as a kind of lttite. 811 00:41:18,520 --> 00:41:19,399 Speaker 4: Or anything like that. 812 00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:22,399 Speaker 5: But no, because I think what we've seen is that 813 00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:25,800 Speaker 5: one we know for a fact that the effect of 814 00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:27,880 Speaker 5: screens is different. And I don't mean that in a 815 00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:30,000 Speaker 5: kind of screen addiction way, which is its own thing. 816 00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:33,320 Speaker 5: I mean we know psychologically that our capacity to recognize 817 00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:35,480 Speaker 5: the humanity of a person we're interacting with on a 818 00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:38,720 Speaker 5: phone screen is reduced, Like our brain just doesn't process 819 00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:41,319 Speaker 5: it the way we process in person interaction. And when 820 00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:44,600 Speaker 5: you read a text that someone wrote, that person is 821 00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:47,520 Speaker 5: not there for you to scream at. Actually, right, you 822 00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:50,600 Speaker 5: go and find other paper and write about them. Social 823 00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:54,440 Speaker 5: media is combining these things, so it's taking like the 824 00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:56,399 Speaker 5: text you know, if you're on Twitter, the text based 825 00:41:56,480 --> 00:41:59,480 Speaker 5: aspects right of the printing past, and it's fusing them 826 00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:01,719 Speaker 5: with a bunch of other stuff that we're not evolutionary 827 00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:05,960 Speaker 5: equipped for at all, like just interacting with millions of 828 00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:09,000 Speaker 5: anonymous people. And I think we've seen very clearly that 829 00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:11,239 Speaker 5: the stuff we're willing to say and do there is 830 00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:14,719 Speaker 5: just absolutely unhinged. And there's no you know, because of 831 00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:17,160 Speaker 5: the whole debate over you know, we're not a publishing platform, 832 00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:20,680 Speaker 5: et cetera. There's no editorial process right too. I stud 833 00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:23,000 Speaker 5: wanted to try to write a book about how Molly 834 00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:24,359 Speaker 5: is a terrible person. 835 00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:26,160 Speaker 2: Right now, you can write it. 836 00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:29,440 Speaker 5: I could self publish sure today, but like you know, 837 00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:32,120 Speaker 5: at one point there'd be like a process somebody would 838 00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:34,280 Speaker 5: have to be like agreed to run that and print 839 00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:37,359 Speaker 5: that and like actually do it. And now I could 840 00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:40,600 Speaker 5: just go onto these websites and say really anything I want. 841 00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:43,359 Speaker 5: And so I just think the printing press analogy is 842 00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:48,439 Speaker 5: it's seductive because what it says is don't worry. Look 843 00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:51,920 Speaker 5: how great things are. Thinks to those advancements. That's how 844 00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:54,200 Speaker 5: they'll be because of this. But I think it really 845 00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:55,880 Speaker 5: obscures all the way is that they're just not the 846 00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:56,399 Speaker 5: same at all. 847 00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:59,920 Speaker 1: Oh so interesting, thank you saying you, saying you, saying 848 00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:07,400 Speaker 1: thank you, thank you, thank you. 849 00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:11,120 Speaker 4: Now, Dan Nathan, Yes, Molly jonathast. 850 00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:12,920 Speaker 2: You are a special moment of fuckery guest. 851 00:43:13,080 --> 00:43:16,600 Speaker 1: So I'm going to set you up for a doozy Okay, 852 00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:17,360 Speaker 1: are you ready? 853 00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:18,040 Speaker 4: I'm ready. 854 00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:23,360 Speaker 1: So it involves America's most I want to say something generous, 855 00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:27,040 Speaker 1: but I'm not going to worst congress Woman Marjorie Taylor Green. 856 00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:28,759 Speaker 2: So in the big. 857 00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:31,839 Speaker 1: Beautiful whatever the fuck that thing is, there is an 858 00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:37,440 Speaker 1: insane little bit of whatever that says. 859 00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:38,440 Speaker 2: And I'm going to read it to you. 860 00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:43,399 Speaker 1: It basically says that states cannot regulate AI. So it 861 00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:46,239 Speaker 1: is the opposite of everything that Republicans have been saying 862 00:43:46,239 --> 00:43:49,279 Speaker 1: for so long. And but you know, AI companies want 863 00:43:49,320 --> 00:43:53,000 Speaker 1: it full transparency. I didn't know about this section on 864 00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:56,839 Speaker 1: page two seventy eight to seventy nine of the obb 865 00:43:57,640 --> 00:44:00,520 Speaker 1: B that strip states for the rights to make laws 866 00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:04,680 Speaker 1: or regulate AI for a decade. I'm adamantly opposed all 867 00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:07,719 Speaker 1: caps to this, and it is a violation of state laws. 868 00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:10,520 Speaker 1: And I would have voted no had I known what 869 00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:15,239 Speaker 1: was in there or AKA read the bill, thought Stan Nathan. 870 00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:17,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, well, let's read the bills here, people, and maybe 871 00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:20,480 Speaker 4: you make these big, beautiful bills something that are digestible 872 00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:23,839 Speaker 4: of all people opining on. This is probably not one 873 00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:25,520 Speaker 4: that I'm going to take to the bank and listen 874 00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:27,360 Speaker 4: to what she has to say here. But at the 875 00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:29,840 Speaker 4: end of the day, I think you nailed it. It's like, okay, 876 00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:33,560 Speaker 4: if Republican politics, okay, for the last call it, one 877 00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:37,120 Speaker 4: hundred and fifty years have centered around whatever the party was, 878 00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:39,880 Speaker 4: you know, prior to that have centered around you know 879 00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:42,160 Speaker 4: what I mean, the states being able to kind of 880 00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:44,440 Speaker 4: make their own laws. And put the power back in 881 00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:47,759 Speaker 4: the people's hands as it relates to whatever the demographics 882 00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:50,960 Speaker 4: or geographic issues specific to them. It just doesn't make 883 00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:52,399 Speaker 4: a whole heck of a lot of sense. You want 884 00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:54,600 Speaker 4: to turn this thing upside down, you know. And some 885 00:44:54,680 --> 00:44:57,880 Speaker 4: of the folks that are these aisars or cryptosars that 886 00:44:57,880 --> 00:45:01,120 Speaker 4: have come into the administration, you know, you would think 887 00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:04,160 Speaker 4: that these people have a code, right, like they've kind 888 00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:07,600 Speaker 4: of built things over amazing things and so it gote valid, 889 00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:09,719 Speaker 4: you know, over the last thirty forty years, that sort 890 00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:12,880 Speaker 4: of thing that have actually advanced the quality of life 891 00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:15,719 Speaker 4: for so many you know, millions of not billions of 892 00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:19,200 Speaker 4: people here, and that's some sort of conformity about this. 893 00:45:19,360 --> 00:45:23,240 Speaker 4: They recognize what the stakes are with AI. That would 894 00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:25,000 Speaker 4: make a whole heck of a lot of sense. So 895 00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:27,520 Speaker 4: in some ways, you know, taking the power from the 896 00:45:27,560 --> 00:45:30,080 Speaker 4: States and taking the power from folks like Marjorie Taylor 897 00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:32,920 Speaker 4: Green who don't understand any of it makes some sense 898 00:45:32,960 --> 00:45:35,160 Speaker 4: to me. But these people better get their act together 899 00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:38,560 Speaker 4: because this technology is advancing at a pace that we've 900 00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:41,400 Speaker 4: never seen right now, and it's really at the center 901 00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:44,000 Speaker 4: of a lot of the sort of battles that are 902 00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:46,560 Speaker 4: going to be fought over the next hundred years for 903 00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:50,919 Speaker 4: like global supremacy. I know that sounds really dramatic. Backtion 904 00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:54,040 Speaker 4: one hundred years and let's see how important this is 905 00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:56,279 Speaker 4: right now that we get it right, because you know what, 906 00:45:56,640 --> 00:45:59,239 Speaker 4: you know, who doesn't kind of mess around with this? 907 00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:01,000 Speaker 4: I know is the moment fuckery, so I could say, 908 00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:05,120 Speaker 4: is the Chinese. They're taking a fifty year view about 909 00:46:05,120 --> 00:46:07,479 Speaker 4: this and we are taking an every two year view 910 00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:09,000 Speaker 4: as it relates to our midterms. 911 00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:11,400 Speaker 2: Thank you, thank you, thank you, Dan Nathan. 912 00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:13,279 Speaker 4: All Right, Mollie, thanks for having me. 913 00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:18,359 Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in 914 00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:24,120 Speaker 1: every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday to hear the best 915 00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:28,480 Speaker 1: minds and politics make sense of all this chaos. If 916 00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:31,560 Speaker 1: you enjoy this podcast, please send it to a friend 917 00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:33,640 Speaker 1: and keep the conversation going. 918 00:46:34,080 --> 00:46:35,240 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening.