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Speaker 3: I want to go to Nvidio though, because we are
Speaker 3: going to see their numbers drop probably any moment now,
Speaker 3: and we are seeing the stock up about eight tenths
Speaker 3: of a percent here in the after market. Obviously a
Speaker 3: big deal, biggest semiconductor company. What they have to say
Speaker 3: about the AI trade, and it's not just the hyperscalers
Speaker 3: but beyond as we heard from Kunjohn Sabania Bloomberg Intelligence,
Speaker 3: So second tier companies are they also biding buying into
Speaker 3: and video chips. So we'll have to see what they
Speaker 3: have to say say. And Vidia is app folks, let's
Speaker 3: get to it. First quarter just to DPS eighty one
Speaker 3: cents a share.
Speaker 4: That's a miss. Street was looking.
Speaker 3: For ninety three cents, so twelve cents shy what the
Speaker 3: street was expected expecting revenue is expected to be forty
Speaker 3: five billion plus or minus two percent. First quarter revenue
Speaker 3: forty four point one billion, that was a beat the
Speaker 3: street expectations was forty three point twenty nine billion. First
Speaker 3: quarter adjusted gross margin that was a miss sixty one
Speaker 3: percent versus an estimate of seventy one percent. Company, though
Speaker 3: saying that the second.
Speaker 4: Quarter outlook reflects a loss in H twenty revenue of
Speaker 4: about eight billion.
Speaker 3: Keep in mind that when that ban came from the
Speaker 3: administration and vide did do a write down of about
Speaker 3: five and a half billion dollars, and Kunjan said it
Speaker 3: was a little noisy because not all of the estimates
Speaker 3: on the street had incorporated that full H twenty ban.
Speaker 5: Yeah, shares bouncing around right now of about eight tenths
Speaker 5: of one percent in the after hours. They were down earlier.
Speaker 5: The company said that global demand for AI infrastructure is
Speaker 5: quote incredibly strong, also saying that Blackwell's NVL seventy two
Speaker 5: AI supercomputer is in full scale production. The company also
Speaker 5: said the second quarter outlook reflects a loss in H
Speaker 5: twenty revenue of about eight billion dollars. So I wonder
Speaker 5: if that charge, Carol that they took was relatively conservative,
Speaker 5: The company also saying it was unable to ship and
Speaker 5: add a two point five billion dollars of H twenty
Speaker 5: revenue in the first quarter. The company also saying it
Speaker 5: will pay a quarterly dividend of one cent per share
Speaker 5: that will happen on July third. Shares right now in
Speaker 5: the after hours are moving higher, up about two point
Speaker 5: five percent.
Speaker 4: Yeah, up about two yeah, exactly.
Speaker 3: The CEO, Jensen Wong, who we're going to hear from
Speaker 3: our Ed Ludlow's going to talk with him at six
Speaker 3: thirty pm Wall Street time on Bloomberg TV and radio.
Speaker 3: The CEO saying the company stands at the center of transformation.
Speaker 3: Go back to what he said about global demand for
Speaker 3: AI infrastructure, incredibly strong adjectives, and so we're going to
Speaker 3: want some more numbers around that. We're getting more on
Speaker 3: the first quarter at comput revenue thirty four point sixteen billion,
Speaker 3: a little light. Street was looking for thirty five point
Speaker 3: forty seven billion. First quarter networking revenue four point ninety
Speaker 3: six billion. Street estimate was three point forty five billion,
Speaker 3: So that's a bit of a big beat. But again,
Speaker 3: the key headlines seem to be what it says about
Speaker 3: second quarter revenue forty five billion plus or minus two percent.
Speaker 3: The estimate on the street is forty five point five billion,
Speaker 3: So we could have some upside.
Speaker 4: Tim from it, or we could see some downside from it.
Speaker 5: We're seeing shares right now hire about about three point
Speaker 5: two percent in the after hours. Want to bring in
Speaker 5: Jay Goldberg, senior analyst Semiconductors and Electronics at Seaport Research Partners.
Speaker 5: Jay joins us from San Francisco. Jay, I want to
Speaker 5: get your reaction to earnings in just a minute. I
Speaker 5: should note that you are the only analyst listed on
Speaker 5: the Bloomberg terminal with a cell rating for Nvidia. Does
Speaker 5: today's result keep you at a cell rating?
Speaker 6: So I have to go through numbers first, but I
Speaker 6: would say yes.
Speaker 7: I mean, my take is that in video, the most
Speaker 7: scrutinized company in the planet, we all have a pretty
Speaker 7: good sense of what their numbers should look like this year,
Speaker 7: what their capacity is working backwards from that, there's not
Speaker 7: a lot of room.
Speaker 6: Left for upside. Right.
Speaker 7: There's a few things here and there, but there's not
Speaker 7: much upside possible. But on the downside, there's still a
Speaker 7: lot of risks. There are a lot of things that
Speaker 7: could go wrong. There's lots of problems with the supply chain,
Speaker 7: the fact that they keeper mentioning that Blackwell is ramping.
Speaker 7: That was in doubt for a while. There's just a
Speaker 7: lot of questions the companies. It's a good company, it's
Speaker 7: well run, it's just gotten so big so quickly.
Speaker 6: I don't think they can keep this.
Speaker 7: The level of expectations beating that they've had for the
Speaker 7: last three years, that just can't keep going.
Speaker 6: And I think the headwinds are continuing to mount.
Speaker 3: In the earning statement, in video, CEO Jensen Wong saying
Speaker 3: global demand for Nvidia's AI infrastructure is incredibly strong. AI
Speaker 3: inferenced token generation has surged tenfold in just one year,
Speaker 3: and as AI agents become mainstream demand for AI computing,
Speaker 3: we'll accelerate. Jay obviously sounds upbeat, but again, you know,
Speaker 3: this is where we want to have some numbers around things.
Speaker 3: The CFO saying sales of their H twenty products four
Speaker 3: point six billion for the first quarter of twenty twenty six.
Speaker 4: It continues to cross.
Speaker 3: You know, is there anything that could kind of make
Speaker 3: you say, well, wait a minute, maybe I need to
Speaker 3: say it's not a sell maybe there is something interesting here.
Speaker 7: So I think the underlying question is what are we
Speaker 7: going to do with AI? Like there's a lot of
Speaker 7: excitement around AI, but it's still in very early stages,
Speaker 7: you know. I like to think of this as the
Speaker 7: Internet in the nineteen seventies. We knew it was something,
Speaker 7: but we didn't know what it would become. I think
Speaker 7: that's where we are with AI now, and I think
Speaker 7: it's going to take a few years for us to
Speaker 7: really as an industry figure out what the actual consumer
Speaker 7: use cases and applications are. And in that process there's
Speaker 7: going to be some fits and starts, and don't I
Speaker 7: just don't think we can keep this momentum going forever.
Speaker 7: I know demand is good now, but we start to
Speaker 7: look in the next year. I think people are starting
Speaker 7: to ask good questions about what is the ROI and
Speaker 7: these massive GPU investments all the hyperscalers and the enterprises
Speaker 7: have made, and I don't think we've seen those yet.
Speaker 7: I think what would sort of alter my belief is
Speaker 7: if somebody invents some incredible consumer application for AI that
Speaker 7: would radically accelerate things.
Speaker 3: Hey, I just want to point out first quarter adjusted
Speaker 3: EPs ninety six cents a share. That was three pennies
Speaker 3: better than what the street was expecting. I think we
Speaker 3: had a number that crossed earlier that was not accurate,
Speaker 3: So again they did be in terms of first quarter
Speaker 3: adjusted EPs. The second quarter forecast, just to rehash, second
Speaker 3: quarter revenue forty five billion plus or minus two percent.
Speaker 3: The estimate on the street is forty five point five billion.
Speaker 3: Second quarter forecast also reflects eight billion dollars in loss
Speaker 3: sales to China, and we know that that ban that
Speaker 3: went into effect in April, and just continuing to check
Speaker 3: and Video shares right now up about two point nine
Speaker 3: percent in the aftermarket.
Speaker 5: There's also another correction crossing right now in video. First
Speaker 5: quarter adjusted gross margin coming in at seventy one point
Speaker 5: three percent versus estimates of seventy one percent, so I
Speaker 5: want to make sure that gets there. In Vidia says
Speaker 5: the charge relates to H twenty excess inventory and by
Speaker 5: obligations in first quarter auto revenues driven by self driving
Speaker 5: platform sales. I want to get back to Jay Goldberg. Jay,
Speaker 5: you made an interesting comment that this is like you know,
Speaker 5: AI is like the Internet in the nineteen seventies. I
Speaker 5: got to tell you playing around with chat GPT and
Speaker 5: anthropics Claude, it blows my mind every single day getting
Speaker 5: in a way MO blows my mind. I mean, I
Speaker 5: mean to me, this feels like, certainly the new frontier.
Speaker 5: What's the vision that you have if we're in the
Speaker 5: early stages, if we're in the early innings of this game,
Speaker 5: like what is the impact going to be? And where
Speaker 5: will Nvidia be in that?
Speaker 6: I think those are two separate questions, right.
Speaker 7: I think in terms of where in Vidio is going
Speaker 7: to be ultimately will depend on what we end up
Speaker 7: using AI for right, And I, like I said, chat
Speaker 7: GPT is incredible technological achievement, but in terms of like
Speaker 7: changing everybody's day to day life, it's it's not quite
Speaker 7: there yet. It's very useful for some people. It's it's
Speaker 7: very useful if you're if you're writing web content or
Speaker 7: if you're coding, but for sort of average day to
Speaker 7: day use. I think of my my my nine year
Speaker 7: old father or my twenty five year old niece, they
Speaker 7: don't they don't use chat GIPT.
Speaker 5: It's just not that useful for what Really the twenty
Speaker 5: five year old is not using chat GPT. No, that's shocking.
Speaker 6: No, I'm basic. I'm using it.
Speaker 5: I'm using it more than I not more than I
Speaker 5: use Google. But like I'll go there first.
Speaker 3: I got to say my house, I think all of
Speaker 3: a sudden has kind of amped up and you've got
Speaker 3: a range of ages and using it for different things
Speaker 3: and things like even grock and you know, yeah, it's happening.
Speaker 6: It's I think it is happening. I think we have
Speaker 6: a long way to go though. Forward.
Speaker 7: The utility is really really clear, Like if you look
Speaker 7: at if you look at search even it's not clear
Speaker 7: how that's going to anetize.
Speaker 6: Are we going to start adds there? What impact will
Speaker 6: that have when we start seeing ads and jat GPT search.
Speaker 6: I'm just making of that example.
Speaker 7: I have no idea they're actually going to do that,
Speaker 7: but that's going to I think that will have an impact.
Speaker 7: I actually think I'm a big optimist about it. I
Speaker 7: think it can be much much more than what it
Speaker 7: is today. And I don't think it's really exciting until
Speaker 7: we get something along those lines.
Speaker 3: All right, We are talking with Jay Goldberg, Senior analyst
Speaker 3: of Semiconductors and Electronics Effort Support Research Partners from San
Speaker 3: Francisco and Video earnings. They have crossed, folks, and we
Speaker 3: continue to see the stock up about two point nine
Speaker 3: percent in the aftermarket. Ian King, with a write through
Speaker 3: on the Bloomberg terminal, and Video forecast revenue of about
Speaker 3: forty five billion in the fiscal second quarter, despite losing
Speaker 3: eight billion in revenue from China due to export controls
Speaker 3: imposed by the Trump administration. The company is ramping up
Speaker 3: production of its latest semiconductor design, Blackwell, and expect strong
Speaker 3: demand for its AI infrastructure, which the company believes will
Speaker 3: tran form the economy.
Speaker 4: And Video's growth is driven by its.
Speaker 3: Dominance as you know, in the AI market or in
Speaker 3: the market for AI accelerator chips. Companies increasingly offering its
Speaker 3: chips as part of whole computer systems to speed up
Speaker 3: the deployment of complex technology.
Speaker 5: So Jay got a little bit of an update there
Speaker 5: from Carol and from our OWNI and King about the
Speaker 5: write through when it comes to Invidia results. Going back
Speaker 5: to remind everybody, you're the only analyst listed on the
Speaker 5: Bloomberg terminal with accelerating on in Video. What would you
Speaker 5: need to see from the company today to have you
Speaker 5: reverse course with that decision?
Speaker 7: So I think one of the things sort of stands
Speaker 7: out for me is a year ago there was a
Speaker 7: line out the door for in video products. Everybody was
Speaker 7: buying everything they could, right and if one company couldn't
Speaker 7: take its allocation, there was somebody else who was more
Speaker 7: than willing to step in. I think the same is
Speaker 7: true of this eight twenty product. The company wrote it
Speaker 7: down a couple months ago. I kind of wonder why
Speaker 7: no one else bought that product. It's different, you know,
Speaker 7: there's all kinds of technical things there, but still it's
Speaker 7: compute at the right price, it would have been attractive
Speaker 7: to somebody.
Speaker 4: Hey what and so yeah, Oh I'm sorry, please continue.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 7: So I'm just wondering how much more demand there is
Speaker 7: right now. Again, I think AI long term is important.
Speaker 7: In the near term, though, I think we're sort of
Speaker 7: running out of steam as people are taking a pause
Speaker 7: to assess what they want to do with it.
Speaker 3: One thing I want to ask you, is it tough
Speaker 3: to have a cell rating Considering the stock Nvidia has
Speaker 3: rallied about twenty four percent since you initiated coverage on
Speaker 3: April thirtieth.
Speaker 7: Oh, it's fantastic having being the only celerated analyst on
Speaker 7: a stock I like being the sober contrarian.
Speaker 3: But even with the stock, you know, rallying as much
Speaker 3: as it did, I understand it's a bounce from being
Speaker 3: perhaps you know, taking quite a beating like many names did,
Speaker 3: courtesy of some of the news coming out of the administration.
Speaker 3: But I mean you still kind of conviction you're going
Speaker 3: to hold to it.
Speaker 6: Oh, absolutely absolutely.
Speaker 7: I mean I have a good sense of you know,
Speaker 7: Jensen is going to get on the call and it
Speaker 7: can drive the stock price higher because he's a fabulous,
Speaker 7: fabulous marketer. He really knows how to sell this company,
Speaker 7: does a great job of that. But I think the
Speaker 7: substance there is still I have lots of questions about it,
Speaker 7: and I'll I'll say in you know, in the two
Speaker 7: three months i've had this celerating out there, I haven't
Speaker 7: got a lot push back from the street.
Speaker 6: I haven't had investors and clients telling me that I'm crazy.
Speaker 6: I've had a few people say I'm too too soon.
Speaker 7: I've had a few people say I'm too late, but
Speaker 7: nobody is sort of questioning my thesis.
Speaker 5: We're getting some additional details about challenges in China and
Speaker 5: China restrictions are any in King writing on the live
Speaker 5: blog that Nvidia missed out on two and a half
Speaker 5: billion dollars of sales in the fiscal first quarter and
Speaker 5: will not getting projected eight billion dollars in the fiscal
Speaker 5: second quarter. It's an amount per quarter roughly equal to
Speaker 5: its nearest rival, AMD's total sales. You mentioned demand of
Speaker 5: the H twenty specifically. Is that what you see as
Speaker 5: the biggest risk? China and a lack of demand from China, Jay.
Speaker 7: I think China is a big X factor, just because
Speaker 7: the US government's China policy is, let's call it dynamic
Speaker 7: and rapidly changing day to day.
Speaker 6: I don't think that's the biggest risk. I think the
Speaker 6: biggest question.
Speaker 7: I have about in Nvidia is long term demand for AI,
Speaker 7: where it's going, what it's going to be like in
Speaker 7: the near term. I think when I speak to corporate CIOs,
Speaker 7: they've all tested AI pilots, they've all demoed it, and
Speaker 7: what they're finding is that they get sort of ten
Speaker 7: twenty percent cost reductions around their AI deployments. It helps
Speaker 7: them reduce call center costs, things like that, which is good,
Speaker 7: but it's not necessarily enough to justify the massive investments
Speaker 7: needed to keep in video growing the way it has
Speaker 7: been growing.
Speaker 5: Okay, Jay, I want to go to a story I'm
Speaker 5: just going through. I was exchanging some texts with some
Speaker 5: friends earlier because it doesn't sound like I have a
Speaker 5: group of friends and like some of them are very
Speaker 5: concerned about AI and about impacts on jobs, and we're
Speaker 5: watching this really closely. Dario Amidae, the CEO of Anthropic,
Speaker 5: I've interviewed him before. Axios out this morning with a
Speaker 5: story that he basically said that AI could wipe out
Speaker 5: about half about all entry level white collar jobs I'm
Speaker 5: reading from Axios right now, and spike unemployment to ten
Speaker 5: to twenty percent in the next one to five years.
Speaker 5: He said this in an interview to Axio in San Francisco.
Speaker 5: Axios in San Francisco, do you disagree with that? It
Speaker 5: sounds like you're not as bullish when it comes to
Speaker 5: the actual effect of AI on the workforce.
Speaker 7: I think that again, I'm a techno optimist, if anything,
Speaker 7: I think there will be absolutely there will be disruptions
Speaker 7: to the labor force, but there will also be new
Speaker 7: opportunities over the long term. So you know, I think
Speaker 7: certain low level coding jobs, certain low level copy eating jobs,
Speaker 7: Those will start to get pretty tough. Anyone who does
Speaker 7: image creation, they're going to be challenged for a while
Speaker 7: until we find new ways to make use of these tools.
Speaker 7: So absolutely, you know, in the nineteen hundreds, all the
Speaker 7: buggy whip and you know carriage, you know, carriage makers
Speaker 7: and horse trainers, they were very disrupted, and we're going
Speaker 7: to see something similar. But the economy will still continue
Speaker 7: to grow and hopefully we'll find ways to use those
Speaker 7: people to do new things with the tools we get.
Speaker 5: I mean hopefully, or else we're in for a real
Speaker 5: reckoning when it comes to the labor force.
Speaker 7: Yeah, and again I think it's I think it's very
Speaker 7: premature to talk about these sort of massive, big term
Speaker 7: impacts of AI because the things.
Speaker 6: We actually use day to day aren't aren't quite there yet.
Speaker 7: You know, again, a few small categories where there is disruption,
Speaker 7: but in a broader sense, we haven't really grasped the
Speaker 7: full potential for AI and what it's going to do.
Speaker 6: So then it's ways to.
Speaker 5: Go if okay, So then it raises the question about
Speaker 5: other companies than your view that could be beneficiaries of
Speaker 5: the way that technology is moving. If in video in
Speaker 5: your view has limited upside. Right now, where in your
Speaker 5: view should investors be putting their money Broadcom?
Speaker 6: Right?
Speaker 7: I think today, anytime in video loses share, it's to
Speaker 7: one of its big customers, the hyperscalers, Intel, micros off Google,
Speaker 7: not Intel, So our Google, Microsoft, Amazon, those companies are
Speaker 7: all in various stages of designing their own GPU alternatives,
Speaker 7: and Broadcom is going to make a lot of money
Speaker 7: helping those those chips come to market.
Speaker 5: When do you think those chips will be able to
Speaker 5: hold a candle to what Nvidia has developed.
Speaker 6: I think we're already there today.
Speaker 7: I think Google Google has the TPU, their tensor processing unit.
Speaker 7: They're on their fifth or sixth generation of those. Those
Speaker 7: are incredibly performative. They work very well for Google and
Speaker 7: what Google needs to do, and I think other Google's
Speaker 7: peers are going to start to see the benefits of
Speaker 7: that and move down that path as well.
Speaker 3: All Right, you are listening and watching Bloomberg Business Week
Speaker 3: Daily Carol Master along with Tim Stanevik live in our
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. We're talking to Jay Goldberg, Senior
Speaker 3: analyst of Sevenconductors and Electronics over at Seaport Research Partners.
Speaker 3: As we said, he's the only analyst listed on the
Speaker 3: Bloomberg with a cell rating on Nvidia, and yet here
Speaker 3: in the after market, we are definitely not seeing investors
Speaker 3: sell shares of Nvidia stock is up about three point
Speaker 3: three percent.
Speaker 4: This as the company did come out and post.
Speaker 3: Its latest quarterly update as well as outlook, and as
Speaker 3: our ian King rights, the company it's the world's largest
Speaker 3: semiconductor company, giving an upbeat forecast even as China slowed
Speaker 3: down Mars some of the growth slow down in China
Speaker 3: weight on results, but sales will be about forty five
Speaker 3: billion dollars in the fiscal second quarter that runs through July.
Speaker 4: That included the loss of roughly.
Speaker 3: Eight billion dollars in revenue from China because of export
Speaker 3: controls from the United States.
Speaker 4: The forecast was in line with the analyst estimates according
Speaker 4: to our data.
Speaker 3: So what's interesting is that even with that loss we're
Speaker 3: talking about, sales will be about forty five billion dollars.
Speaker 3: And as our ian King rights on our live blog,
Speaker 3: how many companies could frontload their earnings release with details
Speaker 3: of what they're missing out on and still get a
Speaker 3: positive reaction from investors.
Speaker 4: So the stock as we said, still.
Speaker 3: Holding on to about a three and a half percent
Speaker 3: gain here in the aftermarket.
Speaker 5: Our colleague Carmen Ryanikey writing on our live blog that
Speaker 5: it seems traders are acting to the company's revenue forecast,
Speaker 5: which is still basically in line even with an expected
Speaker 5: eight billion dollar loss. When it comes to H twenty revenue,
Speaker 5: that signals in Vidia is making up for the loss elsewhere. Jay,
Speaker 5: I want to bring you back in with the caveat
Speaker 5: that you haven't necessarily had the time to comb through
Speaker 5: these results. But in your view, where do you think
Speaker 5: in Nvidia could be making up for the loss in
Speaker 5: H twenty revenue.
Speaker 7: I think there's still a lot of demand from the hyperscalers.
Speaker 7: We have a bunch of massive data center buildouts taking place.
Speaker 7: We had, you know, big announcements in Salary, Rabia last week,
Speaker 7: Stargate earlier this year, UAE, ku Wait, lots of big
Speaker 7: Gulf nations are building out data center capacity.
Speaker 6: The hyperscalers.
Speaker 7: You know have you know, building these plans these data
Speaker 7: centers takes multiple years and so they've had commitments and
Speaker 7: plans in place for a long time now. So those
Speaker 7: are going to continue, right I think the question is
Speaker 7: next year, can the capex continue to be at these levels?
Speaker 6: What happens there?
Speaker 7: But a lot of what we're seeing today is stuff
Speaker 7: that was planned on and committed to months ago.
Speaker 5: So I guess it also raises the question about demand
Speaker 5: from these hyperscalers, which you said continues to remain strong.
Speaker 5: You also said that it does seem like, especially when
Speaker 5: it comes to Google, that they could have some products that,
Speaker 5: in your view at this point, hold a candle to
Speaker 5: in video in terms of where in Nvidia needs to
Speaker 5: go next. Over the last few months, we've talked a
Speaker 5: little bit about the way, and we're going to hear
Speaker 5: from Jensen Wong six thirty Wall Street Time just in
Speaker 5: a little under two hours. Ed Ludlow is going to
Speaker 5: have an Nvidia Earning special six thirty pm Wall Street
Speaker 5: Time on Bloomberg TV and Radio. But Jay, I'm wondering
Speaker 5: about where you think the area of growth is for
Speaker 5: in Nvidia right now in terms of products. We've seen
Speaker 5: Jensen Wong talk in recent months about humanoid robots, about
Speaker 5: self driving cars as areas of potential growth. Where do
Speaker 5: you see that the company needs to go.
Speaker 7: I think the two critical areas for them are in inference,
Speaker 7: compute and robots. Inference is the stage of AI computing
Speaker 7: where it sort of goes into wide adoption when we
Speaker 7: built the model and then we.
Speaker 6: Need to use it.
Speaker 7: How that actually gets deployed I mentioned earlier, It depends
Speaker 7: a lot on what we're actually doing with it. Inference
Speaker 7: is going to be the big battleground. I think in
Speaker 7: Vidia has a lock on the training side of the
Speaker 7: model building, but the inference question is is looming large.
Speaker 7: How we're actually going to deploy this. We as consumers
Speaker 7: when we interact with with AI, where are those chips?
Speaker 7: Are they in our phones? Is that where the AI
Speaker 7: is being done or is it in the data center?
Speaker 7: And I think that that's a big open question. Nobody
Speaker 7: has a clear answer to that yet, and it's going
Speaker 7: to matter a lot too, you know, I guarantee they're
Speaker 7: going to talk about on the call. And the other
Speaker 7: one is, like you mentioned, is robots. Jensen has talked
Speaker 7: a lot about robots. It's a big theme of his
Speaker 7: I think I think it's an area where there's there's
Speaker 7: you know, dozens of companies building humanoid robots that can
Speaker 7: do all kinds of interesting things. And I'm just waiting
Speaker 7: for a robot that can help me fold laundry.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and you and me both. Jay, Hey, Jay, appreciate
Speaker 5: you joining us. Got to come back soon. Jake Goldberg,
Speaker 5: Senior Analyst, semi Conductors and Electronics and Seaport Research Partners,
Speaker 5: joining us from San Francisco.
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Speaker 5: A lot's happening in the universe of Elon must on
Speaker 5: the ground and up in the sky, Up in the sky.
Speaker 5: Space Ex's starship suffering a midflight loss, its third consecutive setback,
Speaker 5: and it raises questions about the company's progress on the
Speaker 5: project Close to Earth.
Speaker 6: Though.
Speaker 5: In an interview to CBS News, Elon Musk expressed dissatisfaction
Speaker 5: with President Trump's giant tax bill, saying it undercut his
Speaker 5: effort to slash government spending.
Speaker 8: I was like disappointed to see the massive spending bill, frankly,
Speaker 8: which increases the budge deps that does decrease it, and
Speaker 8: that reminds the work that Podoche team is doing.
Speaker 6: I actually thought that when this big beautiful bill came along.
Speaker 9: I mean, like everything he don On does gets wiped
Speaker 9: out in the first year.
Speaker 8: I think it both can be big, board can be beautiful.
Speaker 5: So that's a portion of the CBS interview with Elon
Speaker 5: Musk gets set to air fully on CBS Sunday morning
Speaker 5: this weekend. We should note that just the last couple
Speaker 5: of hours, President Trump did dismiss criticism from Elon Musk
Speaker 5: over the cost of his signature to AX bill. He
Speaker 5: told reporters on Wednesday that compromises were made to secure
Speaker 5: the necessary votes. We got Max Chafkin with us, the
Speaker 5: co host of the podcast Everybody's Business and Elon Ink.
Speaker 5: He's also senior reporter for Business Week. He joins us
Speaker 5: here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio, You've got a
Speaker 5: new story out about Elon and whether or not he
Speaker 5: actually is leaving politics.
Speaker 4: I feel like.
Speaker 9: Every time we start to say he looks like he's
Speaker 9: leaving politics, there is again making news in politics, and
Speaker 9: you know, kind of here we go again, right. We
Speaker 9: saw this at the end of last year when there.
Speaker 6: Was talking the budget bill.
Speaker 9: A Republican Congressional Republicans reaching compromise to fund the government
Speaker 9: must kind of came out unexpectedly against that. I think
Speaker 9: we're seeing something similar, right. He's attempting, I think, to
Speaker 9: influence Congress here to at least shape this bill, if
Speaker 9: not a torpedo at all together, which of course puts
Speaker 9: him at odds in some sense with President Trump. Although,
Speaker 9: as you heard from Trump right, Trump is also negotiating
Speaker 9: with Congress right now over the exact contents of the bill.
Speaker 5: So you think he actually has a goal with comments
Speaker 5: like this, He actually has a goal of shaping policy.
Speaker 6: And look clearly.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, like I don't know why else he
Speaker 9: would be saying this. I mean, he seems to be
Speaker 9: saying that this bill is insufficiently hawkish on the deficit.
Speaker 9: That's a point of view, you know, that's pretty consistent
Speaker 9: with Elon Musk. Also, there's a pretty substantial contingent in
Speaker 9: the Republican Party that agrees with him. I also think
Speaker 9: it might be worth looking at some of the specific
Speaker 9: aspects of this bill. You know, this bill has his
Speaker 9: implications for the electric vehicle industry. It gets rid of
Speaker 9: these tax credits that have been very important to Elon Musk.
Speaker 9: And other electric car companies. I don't know to what
Speaker 9: extent those are still in play, but we don't know
Speaker 9: what the final bill is going to look like. And
Speaker 9: you could imagine getting Musk on side would be worth
Speaker 9: something to support us this bill. So I suppose we'll see.
Speaker 3: As long as Elon Musk Max is a financial supporter
Speaker 3: of Donald Trump and Republicans, he's going to have a
Speaker 3: direct line to the president.
Speaker 4: Is that fair to make that assumption?
Speaker 9: Yeah, I think it is fair, And I think even
Speaker 9: in Trump's reaction here, you know, people, it's unclear to
Speaker 9: me from that clip whether Elon Musk is intending to
Speaker 9: criticize congressional Republicans or Donald Trump, although he did sort
Speaker 9: of mock the name, you know, Trump's big beautiful bill formulation,
Speaker 9: Trump responding to it in a pretty accommodating way, like
Speaker 9: he's he's not punching backs, He's taking it like a
Speaker 9: criticism from a friend or something like that. Elon Musk
Speaker 9: is going to be very is still very important to
Speaker 9: Donald Trump and to Republicans as a potential funder in
Speaker 9: the midterm elections and as also a very very visible supporter,
Speaker 9: right he you know, he's very polarizing now, but he's
Speaker 9: still a successful business person, you know, an American industrialist.
Speaker 9: You know, his support matters beyond money.
Speaker 5: Carol made an interesting comment, I can't remember if it
Speaker 5: was this week or last week, during one of our
Speaker 5: editorial calls about the press that Elon Musk has been
Speaker 5: doing lately.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's like the Eras tour.
Speaker 5: I think it's notable for a couple of reasons. One,
Speaker 5: when he bought X, it seemed like he was doing
Speaker 5: everything directly to his followers and directly to the world
Speaker 5: through X. He put his head down and worked a
Speaker 5: lot with Doge. There were some Fox interviews over that
Speaker 5: period of time. But as he's moved away from the
Speaker 5: White House and over the last few weeks, we've we've
Speaker 5: heard more and more from him, and especially through like
Speaker 5: quote unquote traditional like legacy media.
Speaker 3: That's what kills me because you guys make fun of me,
Speaker 3: like my little Sunday morning shows that I watch.
Speaker 4: But it's Sunday morning. It's a very mass wide audience.
Speaker 9: So I think what's going on is Musk is suffering
Speaker 9: a lot of blowback from customers.
Speaker 10: Right.
Speaker 9: He talks all the time about you know, the legacy
Speaker 9: media and the Democrats and the and his various sort
Speaker 9: of political adversaries. But what's happened when you look at
Speaker 9: opinion polling is regular people, the people who buy musk stuff,
Speaker 9: have turned on him. There was a really interesting poll
Speaker 9: published the other day by Harris and Axios. They ask
Speaker 9: people to rate how they basically how much they trust
Speaker 9: well known companies. And you look at Tesla and SpaceX
Speaker 9: over the last five years, and it is stunning. They
Speaker 9: went from being some of the companies with the best
Speaker 9: reputation to some of the companies in this universe of
Speaker 9: one hundred companies with the worst reputation. And I think
Speaker 9: what he's trying to do is get both investors and
Speaker 9: consumers to focus on the other stuff, the non political stuff.
Speaker 9: So we had this rocket launch yesterday, which, as he said,
Speaker 9: Tim did not go very well for SpaceX, but there
Speaker 9: was a big media role out. He did a bunch
Speaker 9: of interviews with various outlets. I assume, although don't know
Speaker 9: for sure, that this CBS interview was part of that,
Speaker 9: essentially saying like, look at the space stuff, look at
Speaker 9: the technology, which I think is smart from a messaging perspective,
Speaker 9: because SpaceX is just inherently going to be less political
Speaker 9: than you know, attacking various parts of the federal government.
Speaker 9: On the other hand, Musk still needs this relationship with
Speaker 9: Donald Trump, and SpaceX still needs this relationship with Donald Trump.
Speaker 9: So it's going to be a difficult dance. I think
Speaker 9: it's going to be very hard for him to undo
Speaker 9: some of the damage that was caused with certain consumers,
Speaker 9: especially you know, left leaning consumers.
Speaker 3: You know, I always think about money with everything we do,
Speaker 3: rightfully so, but there's a story on the Bloomberg about
Speaker 3: Elon Musk's Neuralink raising six center million in a deal
Speaker 3: that values that company at nine billion. This is coming
Speaker 3: from Semaphore siding unidentified people. So people, it sounds like
Speaker 3: if this is true, like still committing money to his ventures.
Speaker 3: I mean, I wonder, Max, we live in a funny world.
Speaker 3: Could it be six months, twelve months, eighteen months where
Speaker 3: all of a sudden, like everybody's kind.
Speaker 5: Of back in on Eli because we have brain chips.
Speaker 4: Because we have brainchips.
Speaker 8: Is that what?
Speaker 4: Maybe there is brain chips?
Speaker 3: But you know what I mean, Like, I don't know,
Speaker 3: does he do something I don't know.
Speaker 9: I think he's in a very difficult political position. I
Speaker 9: think certainly that is what investors are hoping, you know, right.
Speaker 9: He made some comments on the earnings call about a
Speaker 9: month ago, essentially saying, you know, maybe I'll spend one
Speaker 9: to two days a week advising President Trump rather than
Speaker 9: you know, full time.
Speaker 5: And I was saying twenty four to seven, he's going
Speaker 5: to be on company.
Speaker 4: Sleeping somewhere on the floors.
Speaker 8: Who knows.
Speaker 9: I mean, you know, investors like this. The issue is
Speaker 9: he is now closely tied to Donald Trump, and I
Speaker 9: don't I don't think short of really like turning critic
Speaker 9: and saying, okay, now I support a different political party,
Speaker 9: which could happen. I think it's going to be very
Speaker 9: hard for him to walk that line because all you know,
Speaker 9: politics is very polarized in this country, and it's going
Speaker 9: to be hard to avoid, you know, winning back these
Speaker 9: people he's alienated without in turn alienating you know, this
Speaker 9: kind of new cohort or conservatives who still very much
Speaker 9: support Donald Trump.
Speaker 5: Just twenty seconds left on the SpaceX launch that didn't
Speaker 5: go exactly as planned? Can can they still spin it
Speaker 5: as a win. That's what they're doing.
Speaker 9: You know, all these launches are experiments. That's they're going
Speaker 9: to say so, so you shouldn't really focus on the result.
Speaker 9: That said, a lot has to go right between now
Speaker 9: and next year for them to hit the timeline. And
Speaker 9: each time one of these launches does not go right,
Speaker 9: it gets harder.
Speaker 5: Max Chafkin, the co host of the podcast Everybody's Business
Speaker 5: and Elon Ink, also senior reporter for Bloomberg BusinessWeek. He's
Speaker 5: joining us here in the Bloomberg Interactive at Brokers Studio.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live
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Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 5: It is one of the most read stories on the
Speaker 5: Bloomberg terminal right now. ETFs have a mass trillions of
Speaker 5: dollars by offering investors greater tax efficiency, liquidity, and lower
Speaker 5: costs than mutual funds. It's why we've seen inflows that
Speaker 5: are so huge into ETFs and not into mutual funds. Now,
Speaker 5: a regulatory shift is poised to bring ETFs and mutual
Speaker 5: funds closer together, but it also threatens to complicate the
Speaker 5: very features that fueled the ETF boom. Done Emi Grafeo
Speaker 5: and Wildona Hire right about the dual share class structures
Speaker 5: that could be approved as soon as the summer, and
Speaker 5: the warnings about what could transpire if the market becomes stressed.
Speaker 5: They're both Bloomberg News Crossouts reporters and they join us
Speaker 5: here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio. Emily, I want
Speaker 5: to start with what this looming shift is, this regulatory shift.
Speaker 5: Explain what exactly it is and why it's happening.
Speaker 10: Okay, so right now, when you're an investor and you
Speaker 10: buy a fund, you buy a mutual fund, or you
Speaker 10: buy an ETF, and ETFs have one share class. It's
Speaker 10: just an ETF, you get the ticker you buy. If
Speaker 10: you buy a mutual fund, depending on what avenue you're
Speaker 10: buying it through, you'll be in a different share class.
Speaker 10: You could be in the institutional one, the retail one,
Speaker 10: the advisor friendly one.
Speaker 1: Sometimes their price differently.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I was going to say, sometimes the share class
Speaker 5: has a different expense ratio or I don't know, like
Speaker 5: that's the difference, right, Yeah, yetifically exclusively through your private wealth.
Speaker 1: Matter or something exactly.
Speaker 10: So maybe you get like a discount because you're using
Speaker 10: it through like your employer or something, but ETFs don't
Speaker 10: have that. Twenty over twenty years ago, actually Vanguard made
Speaker 10: this patent where they could create a dual share class
Speaker 10: fund where they have a mutual fund and an ETF
Speaker 10: all in one, so you have multiple mutual fund share
Speaker 10: classes and then one share class of that is exchange traded.
Speaker 10: The reason why they did this and they patented it
Speaker 10: is because it makes the fund in total more tax efficient.
Speaker 10: Basically takes all the tax efficiency of the ETF and
Speaker 10: puts it onto the mutual fund. So they figured this out.
Speaker 10: They were like, great idea, let's patent it, make sure
Speaker 10: no one else does it, and they save their clients
Speaker 10: billions on taxes over the years.
Speaker 1: The patent expired two years.
Speaker 10: Ago, so now everyone else on Wall Street is trying
Speaker 10: to get in on it.
Speaker 4: Can anybody and everybody do it? Goes on it? Well
Speaker 4: not yet.
Speaker 11: So we have more than fifty firms that have applied
Speaker 11: for the dual share class, but we are still waiting
Speaker 11: from regulators to hear from regulators. We are expecting, you know,
Speaker 11: the industries, expecting the SEC to greenlight this and to
Speaker 11: actually allow it, maybe possibly as soon as this summer.
Speaker 11: But you know, right now we're just in in wait
Speaker 11: and see mode to see if we can actually get
Speaker 11: approval on this.
Speaker 5: Build on what's the concern here? If there is stress
Speaker 5: to the market, if there are liquidity issues, like what
Speaker 5: are the risks that some of your sources are sharing
Speaker 5: with you.
Speaker 11: Well, there's a couple of different concerns, but one of
Speaker 11: the main ones is, you know, issues related to what
Speaker 11: Emily was just talking about in terms of the tax efficiency.
Speaker 11: So if you have a mutual fund and ETF together
Speaker 11: and you and the mutual fund has to pay out
Speaker 11: capital gains distributions, then in that new structure, the ETF
Speaker 11: investors could potentially also be hit. And there is some
Speaker 11: historical precedent. There actually is a fund of anguart fund
Speaker 11: that back in two thousand and nine had huge outflows
Speaker 11: and so the ETF share class investor, you know, the
Speaker 11: ETF investors were also hit with a fourteen percent distribution.
Speaker 4: So there is some.
Speaker 11: Precedent and so a lot of market watchers or you know,
Speaker 11: people who are maybe looking at this from a critical
Speaker 11: angle or thinking ahead and saying that potentially this is
Speaker 11: an issue that could come up.
Speaker 4: All right, I'm going to age myself.
Speaker 3: But when I started this career about three decades in accounting,
Speaker 3: one of my first things I did was like a
Speaker 3: mutual fund show and it was just like it was
Speaker 3: kind of everybody was all of a sudden, you know,
Speaker 3: getting investment plans at their companies, and it was the
Speaker 3: big thing. And I guess and then now we've kind
Speaker 3: of seen the ETF rush over what the last decade
Speaker 3: or so in counting?
Speaker 4: Do we need both?
Speaker 9: Like?
Speaker 4: Is it just a case?
Speaker 3: Like as I saw this story, I'm like, Okay, here
Speaker 3: it goes the mergeover to ETFs. Is this a first
Speaker 3: step of eventually everything being converted? Or are there are
Speaker 3: advantages to having one pure bread ETF versus one pure.
Speaker 4: Bread mutual fund?
Speaker 10: Yeah? I think when we started out writing this story,
Speaker 10: we wanted to understand. There was this report from Seruly
Speaker 10: and they posed this question of like, why would you
Speaker 10: buy if you're an investor in an ETF, why would
Speaker 10: you buy an ETF attached to.
Speaker 1: A mutual fund if you could just buy a standalone one?
Speaker 9: Right?
Speaker 1: Because the sec one of their.
Speaker 10: Concerns that they flagged, and issuers will say that they've
Speaker 10: answered them. One of the concerns is is there going
Speaker 10: to be this issue of like cross subsidization, one class
Speaker 10: subsidized in the other. To answer your question, though, there
Speaker 10: are some advantages to mutual funds. A lot of mutual
Speaker 10: funds are already in tax exempt accounts, So a lot
Speaker 10: of mutual funds in people's four to one k's. That's
Speaker 10: probably the four to one k technology. It's not really
Speaker 10: suited to hold ETFs. So most of our sources expect
Speaker 10: that that that's a pretty big part of the market
Speaker 10: that will.
Speaker 1: Stay in mutual funds.
Speaker 10: This structure is more for maybe if you're an investor
Speaker 10: that you've been sitting in a mutual.
Speaker 1: Fund in like your brokerage account for years and years,
Speaker 1: and you have all.
Speaker 10: Of these embedded capital gains that if you were to
Speaker 10: sell you would pay a huge.
Speaker 1: Capital gains tax on.
Speaker 10: You could tax free convert into the ETF with this
Speaker 10: and maybe wash out at least some of the taxes.
Speaker 1: That's the idea here.
Speaker 5: Build on our people or firms still launching mutual funds,
Speaker 5: are they going all in on atfs?
Speaker 11: I mean, we're atf reporters, so I'm gonna say they're
Speaker 11: all going all in on the.
Speaker 10: Coperation vice.
Speaker 5: But it has seemed like even some of the huge
Speaker 5: traditional mutual fund companies, like a Capitol Group for example,
Speaker 5: I think you spoke to them at Milken Carol.
Speaker 11: MFS is one hundred and one years old and they
Speaker 11: launched five ETFs.
Speaker 5: Lash like that's that's a big deal.
Speaker 11: I think all of them are watching where the money
Speaker 11: is flowing, and mutual funds as a category are seeing outflows,
Speaker 11: and ETFs are seeing record inflows every single year. And
Speaker 11: obviously we're seeing like hundreds of new ETFs every single year,
Speaker 11: and not all of them are you know, home runs,
Speaker 11: but you just need one. If you're a small etf
Speaker 11: issuer and you have one hit, that's it.
Speaker 1: Like that, you're you're set.
Speaker 11: Like you know, if you have one strategy that that
Speaker 11: you know, maybe a ton of retail investors are attracted to,
Speaker 11: or something new, something that truly is innovative, it can.
Speaker 1: Work out really well for you.
Speaker 11: So a lot of people are looking at that and
Speaker 11: thinking about.
Speaker 4: Well why not.
Speaker 11: It's pretty cheap actually to file and a lot of
Speaker 11: times to launch ETFs. It's a bit obviously, it's very
Speaker 11: difficult to attract assets and attention and eyeballs, et cetera.
Speaker 11: But if you can do it, you know, you can
Speaker 11: get you can get a home run.
Speaker 3: I mean, is there something to learn by what Vanguard
Speaker 3: did and kind of where this then maybe ultimately goes Yeah.
Speaker 10: I mean, well, one, using the structure, they were able
Speaker 10: to save clients in mutual funds a lot on taxes.
Speaker 10: Vanguard gets consistent inflows. So then this this concern about
Speaker 10: the capital gains distributions like bleeding into the ETF, it's
Speaker 10: really only concern concerning if the mutual fund gets a
Speaker 10: ton of outflows and has to like sell shares to
Speaker 10: meet a redemption. They've been really successful. But I mean, Carol,
Speaker 10: they are Vanguard. That's why get huge flows. They have
Speaker 10: a huge audience. I think everyone saw Vanguard's success. I
Speaker 10: think most fund managers are realistic and that like, they
Speaker 10: don't have the scale the Vanguard has. Fair but if
Speaker 10: this is a way to maybe squeeze a little bit
Speaker 10: out and get a couple more assets through now having
Speaker 10: an ETF, might as well try.
Speaker 11: But if I can add, yeah, you know, market watchers
Speaker 11: critics people We've talked to analysts who are anticipating any
Speaker 11: of the potential conflicts with this. They say it's not
Speaker 11: a panacea for mutual fund managers to stench outflows like
Speaker 11: mutual funds still are expected to.
Speaker 4: Keep seeing outflows.
Speaker 11: So even if you get this dual share class structure approved,
Speaker 11: it doesn't mean that your outflows are going to You
Speaker 11: know that you'll be all set terms of performance is
Speaker 11: bad saying exactly, Bill.
Speaker 5: Donnie, you mentioned that if you have a successful ETF,
Speaker 5: it can be game changing for a smaller term. What
Speaker 5: about if it's Trump Media and Technology, for example, you
Speaker 5: wrote about this company recently. It's majority owned by the
Speaker 5: President of the United States, and you wrote that they're
Speaker 5: laying the groundwork to come out with some ETFs.
Speaker 1: They are.
Speaker 11: It's actually an unusual move to pre announce that you
Speaker 11: are planning to launch ETFs. Usually, issuers keep their ideas
Speaker 11: close to their what's the saying, to their vest, to
Speaker 11: their heart, and close to the vest, and so it's
Speaker 11: very unusual to pre announce that you're going to be
Speaker 11: doing something. But Trump Media did say that they are
Speaker 11: planning on soon filing and launching ETFs, and separately Managed
Speaker 11: accounts SMAs with three different themes, oil and gas, made
Speaker 11: in America, and cryptocurrencies.
Speaker 4: The catch here is.
Speaker 11: Obviously all of that is tied to the president's various policies,
Speaker 11: whether they're terrifilated or cryptocurrency related. Obviously, oil and gas
Speaker 11: was a big theme when he was running for re election, right,
Speaker 11: But more than sixty oil and gas ETFs already exist,
Speaker 11: more than sixty focus. There's even a handful of made
Speaker 11: in America ETFs already, and so what a lot of
Speaker 11: ETF you know, analysts ETF.
Speaker 1: The industry is looking.
Speaker 11: At this and thinking it's you know, you're adding to
Speaker 11: the mix of an already saturated, oversaturated market. But it
Speaker 11: does come with potentially the president being able to, you know,
Speaker 11: maybe go out and say you can buy my phones
Speaker 11: or something along those lines, and that that might you know,
Speaker 11: hinder or hurt his competitors, the people who already have
Speaker 11: these et al.
Speaker 3: Right, that's a great story that you have on the terminal.
Speaker 3: We're gonna give you guys equal love because you guys
Speaker 3: did a story together, that was your story, and well
Speaker 3: you've got another ETF story. We've just got about forty
Speaker 3: seconds left here about State Street looking to kind of
Speaker 3: double down on it's a bit to bring private assets
Speaker 3: to a broader spectrum of investors. So this is an ETF.
Speaker 3: This is an ets the private market world.
Speaker 10: Yeah, this is a private credit ETF. They have one
Speaker 10: already and launched in February. The flows have been very lackluster,
Speaker 10: especially for Stage Street. They're a big issuer. They've only
Speaker 10: seen like five million inflows over a couple of months.
Speaker 10: But they are doubling down. This one's going to be
Speaker 10: a short duration private acid ETF. The one they have
Speaker 10: now it's a little bit longer duration.
Speaker 4: Markets are longer duration.
Speaker 10: Well they said, yeah, they said this one's one to
Speaker 10: three years. It's still in the early stages.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 3: Maybe you guys might you should do.
Speaker 4: I know we have an ATF podcast, but you guys
Speaker 4: should do an ETFO.
Speaker 8: Show.
Speaker 3: And La Grafe the Donna Hirich so appreciated both Bloomberg
Speaker 3: News crocessset reporters.
Speaker 4: Check them out on the Bloomberg and a Bloomberg dot com.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, available on Apple,
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