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Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making

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Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know

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Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news

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Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is

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Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier,

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Speaker 1: and more trustworthy mainstream by becoming a Breaking Points Premium

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Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money

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Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and

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Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage

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Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most

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Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for?

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Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 1: What do we have, Crystal. Indeed, we do a lot

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Speaker 1: of interesting stuff going on in the world world, some

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Speaker 1: GOP in disarray, a lot of finger pointing already about

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Speaker 1: potential underperformance in the midterms. This is pretty interesting. McConnell's involved,

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Speaker 1: Trump's involved, Tucker's involved, Hannity's involved. So we'll break all

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Speaker 1: of that down for you. We also have some brand

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Speaker 1: new polling from NBC News. That is pretty interesting, very complex.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you really could see this election in any

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Speaker 1: number of ways. There are some numbers that are terrible

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Speaker 1: for Democrats, there are some numbers that are not good

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Speaker 1: for Republicans. So it's all very, very much less predictable

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Speaker 1: than I expected it to be just a couple of

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Speaker 1: months ago. Also, a carbomb killing a Kremlin ally in Moscow,

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Speaker 1: A lot of questions about who is responsible, what it means,

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Speaker 1: very dangerous situation ultimately that you know, has the potential

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Speaker 1: for escalation, putting domestic political pressure on Putin to do

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Speaker 1: even more and be even more aggressive in this war.

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Speaker 1: So we'll break all of that down for you. A

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Speaker 1: lot of questions remain there. Also the very latest in

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Speaker 1: terms of the Trump Ma a lago raid. The judge

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Speaker 1: actually said, and this surprised me, you know, the Department

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Speaker 1: of Justice said, we don't want the affidavit that justified

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Speaker 1: the search. We don't want that to be released. They

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Speaker 1: argued in favor of keeping that completely sealed. Coalition of

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Speaker 1: news organizations said no, there is a public interest in

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Speaker 1: knowing what is in this document. The judge has taken

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Speaker 1: kind of a middle ground and said, hey, I think

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Speaker 1: we should release it, but let's let the DOJ put

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Speaker 1: in what they think should be redacted from this, so

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Speaker 1: we'll break all of that down. And also, guys, I

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Speaker 1: know you are heartbroken. This morning, the Brian Stelter Show

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Speaker 1: Reliable Sources has officially come to an end. We're going

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Speaker 1: to get through this together. Guys. We'll bring you his

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Speaker 1: final stirring commentary from his final show and solemn Occasion. Yeah, indeed,

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Speaker 1: indeed solemn Occasion this morning. But before we get to

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Speaker 1: any of that live show, live show. Only a couple

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Speaker 1: tickets left. Let's go and put it up there on

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Speaker 1: this screen. September sixteenth, Atlanta. We are coming, Crystal, myself,

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Speaker 1: many other friends of the show. It's going to be

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Speaker 1: an awesome time. Go ahead and buy those. We want

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Speaker 1: to officially sell this thing out, folks, Let's go ahead

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Speaker 1: and do it. Like I said, only a few remaining,

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Speaker 1: go ahead and nab them and send us an email

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Speaker 1: if there are any issues. As a reminder to the

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Speaker 1: lifetime members, if you had gone ahead and bought tickets,

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Speaker 1: just forward your receipt as well to the customer service

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Speaker 1: line and those will be refunded closer to the day

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Speaker 1: of the show. Looking forward to it. I genuinely cannot wait.

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Speaker 1: You know, it is getting close because I've actually gotten

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Speaker 1: my babysitting logistics for my three kids secure, serious stuff

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Speaker 1: ready to go. So all of the obstacles have been cleared.

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Speaker 1: It is happening, and it is happening in less than

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Speaker 1: a month. All right, let's get to the Republicans in

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Speaker 1: disarray storyline here at the top. So Mitch McConnell gotten

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Speaker 1: put this NBC tear sheet up on the screen, really

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Speaker 1: cause a bit of a stir with some comments that

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Speaker 1: he made to the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce. He

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Speaker 1: says Republicans might not win Senate control, citing candidate quality specifically.

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Speaker 1: Here were his comments are here. He says, I think

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Speaker 1: there's probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate.

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Speaker 1: Senate races are just different. Candidate quality has a lot

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Speaker 1: to do with the outcome. Now, when you are the

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Speaker 1: once and potentially future majority leader, Mitch McConnell on the

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Speaker 1: Republican side, and you are outright admitting, this far from

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Speaker 1: election day, that you think the Senate might not flip,

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Speaker 1: I mean that in and of itself is quite noteworthy. Hue,

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Speaker 1: and it's very much seen as shots fired at Trump

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Speaker 1: because it's a lot of his chosen candidates who are

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Speaker 1: really underperforming. Here, let's go ahead and put the five

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Speaker 1: thirty eight numbers up on the screen, and you know, guys,

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Speaker 1: this can change. The polls have been very wrong. They

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Speaker 1: have consistently underestimated Republicans. So I really want you to

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Speaker 1: keep all of that in mind as we're evaluating this data.

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Speaker 1: But as of right now, Democrats are favored by sixty

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Speaker 1: three percent to thirty seven percent to win control of

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Speaker 1: the Senate. They are feeling so bullish that there are

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Speaker 1: some who are starting to whisper maybe will not just

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Speaker 1: keep control of the Senate, maybe we will actually pick

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Speaker 1: up a few seats and pick up a little bit

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Speaker 1: of ground. Now, the candidates who are kind of widely

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Speaker 1: seen at underperforming are we've talked about all of them

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Speaker 1: are Herschel, Walker, doctor Oz certainly those to your top

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Speaker 1: of the list, also JD. Vanson Ohio, who is by

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Speaker 1: quite a lot of polls, including their own Republican internals,

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Speaker 1: down to Tim Ryan right now, Blake Masters out in Arizona.

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Speaker 1: All four of these seats should have been basically lay

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Speaker 1: ups for Republicans with the overall political landscape that we're facing,

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Speaker 1: and not only are they struggling in some of these seats,

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Speaker 1: they are just outright losing. And it's pretty hard to deny.

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Speaker 1: The last piece that I'll put up here before getting

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Speaker 1: your reactions, Tager is part of the problem, and that

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Speaker 1: reveals a lot about flagging Republican sort of enthusiasm and momentum.

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Speaker 1: The fundraising numbers for these Republicans almost across the board

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Speaker 1: is pretty dismal. Let's go ahead and put this up

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Speaker 1: on the screen. Huge disparis. I know it's a little

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Speaker 1: bit hard to see, but I'll read you some of

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Speaker 1: the numbers here between the Democratic candidates and what they

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Speaker 1: have cash on hand and the Republican candidates. So as

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Speaker 1: a couple of examples, down in Georgia, you have Rafael

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Speaker 1: Warnock with twenty two million in the bank versus Herschel Walker,

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Speaker 1: who's actually in better shape than most of the other Republicans,

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Speaker 1: was six point eight million, but still a massive disparity there.

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Speaker 1: You've got Mark Kelly out in Arizona with twenty five

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Speaker 1: million cash on hand versus Blake Masters only has one

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Speaker 1: and a half million, and This one is really quite stunning.

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Speaker 1: Tim Ryan pulling in three point six million. That's his

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Speaker 1: cash on hands house, that's what he has in the

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Speaker 1: bank jd vance less than a million dollars, only six

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars in his bank account at the end

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Speaker 1: of last quarter. And this is consistent something we've been tracking,

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Speaker 1: you know, sort of at every level. The grassroots fundraising

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Speaker 1: has dried up. There's a lot of questions about how

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Speaker 1: the National Republican Senatorial Committee has been spending their money.

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Speaker 1: They blew through a whole lot of cash and now

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Speaker 1: are having to pull ads down in key battleground states.

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Speaker 1: They're having to spend money in places like Ohio that

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Speaker 1: they really didn't think they were going to have to

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Speaker 1: spend money on in order to win. And so they're

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Speaker 1: a lot of structural issues here that are kind of

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Speaker 1: cropping up for the Republicans. Absolutely, and I just think

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Speaker 1: though it's always important to present the caveats. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Susan Collins was down what ten right before election day.

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Speaker 1: Tom Tillis was supposed to be a dead man walking

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Speaker 1: in North Carolina. There were a couple of other Senate seats.

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Speaker 1: I mean, even if you go back to twenty eighteen.

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Speaker 1: If you'll recall Marsha Blackburn was supposedly, you know, in

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Speaker 1: a tight race. Remember also even Jamie Harrison. They said

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Speaker 1: it's like, oh, within two or three point I mean

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Speaker 1: lost by seventeen points, right, So anyway, that's the caveat. Also,

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Speaker 1: you know, I was talking with some people who work

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Speaker 1: in these circles. Their counter to this is that the

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Speaker 1: Democrats are a wash in post Dobbs cash and in

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Speaker 1: a way may actually be blowing their wad a little

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Speaker 1: bit too early. Part of the problem is that because

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Speaker 1: right now it's in August, they have all this cash,

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Speaker 1: they have the media spots available. Is that the Republicans. Again,

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Speaker 1: this is the counter So I am not saying this

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Speaker 1: is necessarily the case. They're like, look, we're not going

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Speaker 1: to spend our money in the summer, We're going to

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Speaker 1: try and spend our money all the way come to election.

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Speaker 1: Well that's obviously cope. When they just don't have as

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Speaker 1: much money, they don't have, you, right, it would be

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Speaker 1: one thing if yeah, Democrats had raised a bunch of

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Speaker 1: money and they spent it all. But Republicans are in

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Speaker 1: the very bad position of yeah, Democrats have been in

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Speaker 1: a lot of these races out spending them and defining

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Speaker 1: them on the airwords and we think about Fetterman and

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Speaker 1: O how Fetterman jumps right to OZ isn't even on

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Speaker 1: the air. And yet you know they're behind in terms

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Speaker 1: of fundraising, so they're in a position where they need

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Speaker 1: to make up the gap with a flood of post

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Speaker 1: Labor Day advertising and as of right now, you know

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Speaker 1: they are very much behind. One indication of how dire

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Speaker 1: the cash situation has gotten for some of these Republicans.

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Speaker 1: Blake Masters, who's the Sena nominee in Arizona aforementioned, who

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Speaker 1: was backed by Trump, and Trump really kind of cleared

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Speaker 1: the field for him and put him in position to win.

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Speaker 1: He also had a lot of support from Peter Teal

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Speaker 1: financially in the in the primer used to work for him,

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Speaker 1: and not clear that Teal is going to come in

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Speaker 1: for him or jd Vance, who was his other big

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Speaker 1: candidate in the general election, So that's kind of a

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Speaker 1: big question mark. But Masters, in order to win the primary,

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Speaker 1: he went all in and like trashing Mitch McConnell, who

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Speaker 1: I'm cool, was saying he would not support him for leadership,

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Speaker 1: that he was going to vote for, he said, Tom

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Speaker 1: Cotton or I don't remember, somebody else, Josh Holly or

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Speaker 1: something like that. Now that he is struggling in terms

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Speaker 1: of cash and behind in cash on hand by like

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Speaker 1: twenty four million dollars to Mark Kelly. Now exchanged this too,

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Speaker 1: let's go and put this up on this screen. It

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Speaker 1: says he's hopeful the GOP leader is going to offer

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Speaker 1: financial support. He says, I think he'll come in and

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Speaker 1: spend Arizona's going to be competitive. It's going to be

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Speaker 1: a close race. I hope he does come in and sager.

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Speaker 1: He says, we'll find a way to work together. He

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Speaker 1: goes on to make his spitch. I mean, this is

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Speaker 1: just shamelessly begging for Gash here. I think I'm a

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Speaker 1: much better candidate than Mitch mcconald gives me credit for.

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Speaker 1: He says, let me just say this is not goun

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Speaker 1: unnoticed in Washington, and as fans passed around quite a

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Speaker 1: bit in certain circles and made its way to me,

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Speaker 1: and I was like, hey, you know, it's actually a

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Speaker 1: good story. I got to give it to him. So

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of gloating in some closed doors here,

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Speaker 1: in DC saying like, oh yeah, body trashes him till

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Speaker 1: they need the money. Until here's what people forget. Not

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Speaker 1: only the NRSC, which is run by Rick Scott, but

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Speaker 1: the Senate Leadership Fund, which is directly controlled by Mitch

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Speaker 1: McConnell and his super pack is tens to hundreds of

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Speaker 1: millions of dollars potentially. And look, Masters is fighting for

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Speaker 1: his life. He's already down probably. See. This is the

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Speaker 1: hard part to parse, which is that the advance poll

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Speaker 1: I just honestly don't believe it. I'm like, look, I

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Speaker 1: think he's gonna win. I think he'll probably win by

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Speaker 1: like four, he should have won by ten, but he'll

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Speaker 1: probably still pull it out. OZ for him is that

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Speaker 1: they're having to spend money there exactly. Yea, So the

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Speaker 1: problem for them is they're gonna have to spend money.

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Speaker 1: But I just don't see it. OZ. I still think

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Speaker 1: it's like fifty five to forty five. I don't think

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Speaker 1: it should be. I'm talking to Fetterman's direction is still

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Speaker 1: a little bit too close. But I have confidence he

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Speaker 1: might be able to pull it across the finish line,

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Speaker 1: but it will be incredibly tight. Masters is legitimately I

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Speaker 1: think in trouble because Mark Kelly not only in terms

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Speaker 1: of candidate quality, but the guy is not a nationally

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Speaker 1: defined Democrat in the way that Cinema or any of

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Speaker 1: the other any of the other people who are kind

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Speaker 1: of up are in the same way. For the media.

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Speaker 1: You know, Mark Kelly did his very first Sunday interview

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Speaker 1: as a senator this weekend. The guy has no profile,

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Speaker 1: and I was actually doing some reading over the weekend.

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Speaker 1: Almost all the interviews he gives are like to the

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Speaker 1: Arizona Central or you know, the Phoenix newspaper or something,

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Speaker 1: and all he talks about is like water access issues

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Speaker 1: for ranchers. He's actually quite a localist politician, doesn't play

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Speaker 1: up his you know, machinations behind the scenes. He has

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Speaker 1: votes with Biden, but very rarely seen with Biden. These

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Speaker 1: are all things that I think defined, you know, a

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Speaker 1: popular politician. On top of it, Look, he's got a

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Speaker 1: good bio right, married to Gabby Gifford. It's very popular

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Speaker 1: in the state. There's a lot of sympathy not only

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Speaker 1: for her, and he's a hero astronaut. So it's like

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Speaker 1: you put those couple of things together. This is the

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Speaker 1: tough and you know, masters shot himself in the foot

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Speaker 1: two different cases. Number one was the Griswold thing that

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Speaker 1: he put on his the birth control contraception case. You know,

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Speaker 1: and he's not going to vote for any Supreme Court

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Speaker 1: justice that doesn't commit to overturning that. He put it

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Speaker 1: on his website in the primary. There's no reason to

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Speaker 1: do that, right except I mean there really literally is

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Speaker 1: no reason. Second, you know, saying he wants to privatize

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Speaker 1: social Security, so you put the abortion contraception thing on

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Speaker 1: one end, which is getting bombarded with on the air.

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Speaker 1: And then if I was Mark Kelly, I know I

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Speaker 1: would just run that privatizing social Security clip all day long.

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Speaker 1: He is and he is. That's what done already, of

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Speaker 1: course he is. And that's what if we'll recall the

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Speaker 1: way this is always funny because Cinema, now that we

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Speaker 1: remember her, the way that she beat Martha McSally is Obamacare.

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Speaker 1: It was all Martha McSally voted to take away Obamacare.

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Speaker 1: And Martha McSally is on record saying that vote is

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Speaker 1: almost definitively what sunk her in the state of Arizona. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: in her post interviews, even though she was like appointed

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Speaker 1: and then she ran. She lost again, which is pathetic.

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Speaker 1: She was also didn't we interview her We might have.

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Speaker 1: I think we interviewed her, and she was like the

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Speaker 1: most wooden, just terrible candidate. She has a nice story

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Speaker 1: that you can possibly imagine. Yeah, I mean, you know

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Speaker 1: they're listen as I keep saying the Republican it should

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Speaker 1: be a slam done for a lot of these candids.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they shouldn't have to spend money in Ohio,

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Speaker 1: and they're spending a lot. So the NRSC is spending

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Speaker 1: twenty eight million dollars I think in OHI is a

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Speaker 1: huge number that they're having to spend in Ohio to

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Speaker 1: try to get JD Vance across the finish line. And

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Speaker 1: I agree with you, it's Ohio. I don't think Tim

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Speaker 1: Ryan's going to win, but you shouldn't be having to

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Speaker 1: put down cash in that state. That should have been

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Speaker 1: an absolute layup. So you now have a lot of

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Speaker 1: Republican consultants and Senate hopefuls who were like, what the

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Speaker 1: hell happened to all your money too? At the national level,

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Speaker 1: let's go and put this up on the screen. This

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Speaker 1: is also kind of hilarious. It's a ripoff. GOP spending

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Speaker 1: under fire a Senate hopefuls seek rescue. You have all

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Speaker 1: these people who are calling for an audit of the

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Speaker 1: National Republican Senatorial Committee. They say they're getting you know,

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Speaker 1: the Senate hopefuls are getting crushed on the airways across

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Speaker 1: the country while their national campaign fund is pulling ads

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Speaker 1: and running low on cash, leading some campaign advisors to

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Speaker 1: ask where all the money went and demand an audit

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Speaker 1: of the committee's finances. Corny Republican strategist involvement discussions the

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Speaker 1: nrsc's retreat cam after months of touting record fundraise, saying

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Speaker 1: topping one hundred and seventy three million dollars so far

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Speaker 1: this election cycle, but the committee has burned through nearly

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Speaker 1: all of it, with their cash on hand dwelling to

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Speaker 1: twenty eight million dollars by the end of June. So

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Speaker 1: this is another you know, we saw this in the

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Speaker 1: Trump campaign too. Remember they had that massive war chest

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Speaker 1: and we were heading into that election like, jeez, the

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Speaker 1: Democrats aren't going to be swamped by this amount of

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Speaker 1: money that he's been able to raise. And then oh,

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Speaker 1: a Brad Parscal and I don't know who else got

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Speaker 1: their hands in the cookie jar, but that money was gone,

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Speaker 1: and towards the end, the Trump campaign was having to

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Speaker 1: pull ads in like you know, key back. I think

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Speaker 1: it in Wisconsin, another key battleground states, because they just

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Speaker 1: literally didn't have the money. And there's echoes of that here.

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Speaker 1: They had plenty of money in the bank, one hundred

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Speaker 1: and seventy three million dollars so far, and now where

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Speaker 1: is it. It's gone as you come down the stretch,

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Speaker 1: and Republican online donations have flagged, so they're raising money

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Speaker 1: at a slower clip, and they've had to pull pull

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Speaker 1: their advice in some of these critical areas. So again,

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Speaker 1: I don't know that these things are going to be determinive,

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Speaker 1: especially in a sort of national environment where a lot

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Speaker 1: of what's going to happen here is going to be

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Speaker 1: based on the national wins, how people feel about the country,

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Speaker 1: how people feel about Joe Biden potentially if Trump were

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Speaker 1: to announce, but how they feel about Trump, all these

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Speaker 1: other factors. Certainly, Dobs plays into all of this, but

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Speaker 1: it is an indication of number one, like total disorganization,

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Speaker 1: foolish decision making, and then the terrible candidates who have

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Speaker 1: ended up in some of these races. In phenomia. It

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Speaker 1: is funny too, because of course the establishment wing wants

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Speaker 1: to blame you know, Trump for all of this, but hey,

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Speaker 1: Rick Scott is the one running the NRSC and by

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Speaker 1: the way, I don't know if people know this, Rick

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Speaker 1: Scott is worth like one hundred million dollars because the

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Speaker 1: way that he even came to office was he was

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Speaker 1: like CEO of some healthcare company which eventually was investigated

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Speaker 1: I think for fraud. But anyway, he made it quite

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Speaker 1: a bit of money there. And what his pitch was

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Speaker 1: when he's running for governor and later centered He's like,

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Speaker 1: I'm a businessman, I understand how the free market works

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Speaker 1: all of that. And yet what they're quoting is that

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Speaker 1: National Republican consulting and he says if they were a corporation,

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Speaker 1: the CEO would be fired and investigated. It's like, well,

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Speaker 1: I guess, you know, given Scott's track record, kind of

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Speaker 1: makes sense. Yeah, the way this money has been burned,

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Speaker 1: there needs to be an audit or investigation because we're

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Speaker 1: not going to take the Senate now and this money

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Speaker 1: has been squandered. I mean, blaming it all on money

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Speaker 1: I think is obviously cove candidate quality is going to

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Speaker 1: have an immense amount to do with it. That being said,

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Speaker 1: they should not have spent one hundred and fifty million dollars.

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Speaker 1: I mean, where did it go? Nothing? I mean to

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Speaker 1: have all their candidates basically losing. And if I think

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Speaker 1: back to the Democratic point that I made earlier about

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Speaker 1: how Dems have all this money came in after Dobbs

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Speaker 1: through Act Blue and this big money and this like

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Speaker 1: the national fundraising infrastructure, and the whole point was they

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Speaker 1: were blowing their money early. Well, then the Republicans blew

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Speaker 1: it even earlier if they add one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: So where is this money happening? I mean, I think

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Speaker 1: that is actually the I mean gigantic scandal, not a

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Speaker 1: real one as in, I'm not going to cry for

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Speaker 1: you know, like I'm not going to cry for big

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Speaker 1: money donors who pay their money away and it was

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Speaker 1: pissed away. But you know, these things are given to

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Speaker 1: a certain political end, and we don't see a hell

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Speaker 1: of a lot of that. So I think that is

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Speaker 1: a major one. I mean the also there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of finger pointing as you were talking about Crystal, let's

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Speaker 1: show this up there. You know, Donald Trump is now

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Speaker 1: inclined to wait until November midterms to announce his twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four candidacy as part not to be blamed if

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Speaker 1: Republicans underperform in the election, which is telling because that

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Speaker 1: tells you he thinks Republicans may well underperform in the election.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he's not wrong, right, which is that as

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Speaker 1: you and I said, frankly, I would never expect this

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Speaker 1: of Trump because Trump should know that now is the

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Speaker 1: best time to announce. He's never been more popular. He's

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Speaker 1: raking in one million dollars per day on the campaign

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Speaker 1: or in terms of his online fundraising. He's never had

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Speaker 1: more support within the institutional GOP. Like, why wouldn't you

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Speaker 1: just announce right now? Since when does he care? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I am a little skeptical skeptical of this as well,

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Speaker 1: that he would be so like, let me let me wait,

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Speaker 1: because it does seem like strike while the iron is hot,

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Speaker 1: and like he usually has a good sense of those things,

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Speaker 1: so we'll see. Also interesting if you saw this, Maggie

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Speaker 1: Haberman sort of floated he may not run at all,

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Speaker 1: which I don't know where these things coming. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if it was anybody else, I would think they were

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Speaker 1: just bullshitting, but she is very well sourced in that world,

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Speaker 1: so I did take note of that. I don't know

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Speaker 1: what it means. He's very hard to predict. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know this, it wouldn't be the first time that

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Speaker 1: he really teased a presidential run hard and then back

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Speaker 1: down at the last minute for whatever reason. So I

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Speaker 1: don't put it totally off the table. But my expectation

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Speaker 1: is still very much that he's gonna run. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think you're right. I mean, I will tell you about

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Speaker 1: a year ago. I remember asking around. I said, hey,

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Speaker 1: is Trump going to run again or not? And there

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Speaker 1: was some there was here's what the line was. If

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Speaker 1: he's able to, he will run, And everyone was like,

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Speaker 1: what does that mean? He's able to? So people were like,

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Speaker 1: is he healthy or not? I mean looks, frankly, it

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Speaker 1: looks better than he did whenever he was in the

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Speaker 1: White House. So I don't really know if he has

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Speaker 1: any health problems. I mean, it's not like anybody's particularly

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Speaker 1: forthcoming about these days when it comes to our geriatric presidency,

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Speaker 1: our president, so you know, it would not be uncommon

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Speaker 1: for there to be an issue. So that's a pair Carently,

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Speaker 1: what's out there and now here's what I was alluding

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Speaker 1: to earlier. Let's throw this up there. Trump also trying

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Speaker 1: to point fingers and blame over at Mitch McConnell's saying

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Speaker 1: that Mitch McConnell is a quote broken down hack as

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Speaker 1: and you know, questioned his ability in order to win

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Speaker 1: back the Senate. Why do Republican centers allow broken down,

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Speaker 1: hacked politician Mitch McConnell to openly disparage hard working Republican

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Speaker 1: candidates for the US Senate. This is an affront to

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Speaker 1: honor into leadership. He should spend more time and money

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Speaker 1: helping them get elected, in less time helping his crazy

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Speaker 1: wife and family get rich on China. By the way,

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Speaker 1: he employed that wife as his was it Commerce secret

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Speaker 1: no Transportation secretary? So I always think things are funny

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Speaker 1: when he throws bombs, even though he literally literally Look,

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Speaker 1: this is all comes comes me back to what like

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Speaker 1: November and December of twenty twenty, when both sides had

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Speaker 1: a legitimate case, which is the Trump case against McConnell.

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Speaker 1: Was you held up the two thousand dollars Stemius checks

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Speaker 1: for no reason? And that's part of the reason why

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Speaker 1: Georgia Senate candidates sunk, and then McConnell was like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: well you told everybody the election was stolen, and then

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Speaker 1: a lot of people didn't come out to vote, and

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Speaker 1: Democrats came out to vote because they thought you were

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Speaker 1: out of your goddamn mind. Both sides have a point

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Speaker 1: in terms of what exactly the downstream effect is. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I don't really know who is the worst politician at

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Speaker 1: least who is more damaging to the GOP cause, But

428
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 1: I think there is like mutual They've mutually hurt national

429
00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:27,080
Speaker 1: chances in their own very unique waves. It's their own problem, right,

430
00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:29,879
Speaker 1: I mean, both have inflicted this upon themselves. And of

431
00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,000
Speaker 1: course everybody has their own camp in DC. Who's spinning

432
00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,399
Speaker 1: each other? Yeah, of course, I mean, And like I said,

433
00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:37,840
Speaker 1: I think the most revealing thing is that here we are,

434
00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:40,919
Speaker 1: we haven't even hit Labor Day, and you already have

435
00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:44,119
Speaker 1: everybody pointing figures and trying to assign blame and trying

436
00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:48,600
Speaker 1: to pre cook the narrative of what went wrong. If

437
00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 1: something does go wrong, now that doesn't mean, you know,

438
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:53,199
Speaker 1: they can just be covering their bases and then you

439
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:56,320
Speaker 1: still have the red wave. But especially given how high

440
00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:59,800
Speaker 1: expectations were that this was going to be a historic wave,

441
00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:02,240
Speaker 1: that you were going to have historic margins for Republicans

442
00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:03,760
Speaker 1: in the House, that they were going to just wipe

443
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:05,879
Speaker 1: on the Democrats in the Senate, that there was just

444
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:08,160
Speaker 1: no doubt about it, given the state of the economy,

445
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:10,040
Speaker 1: the state of Joe Biden's approval rating, and just the

446
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:13,640
Speaker 1: historical record of how the party in power typically does

447
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 1: in their first midterm elections. The fact that you now

448
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:21,440
Speaker 1: have all of this, you know, in advance, finger pointing

449
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 1: and throwing under the bus is pretty interesting, And of

450
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 1: course the folks over at Fox News had to get

451
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:32,159
Speaker 1: in on it as well. We have let's start with

452
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 1: Sean Hannity here and his take on Mitch McConnell and

453
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 1: his comments, how about you get out there, Mitch and

454
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 1: fight for your team. What's your agenda? Mitch? Would you

455
00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 1: rather just sip by and watch helplessly as Democrats light

456
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 1: on your face pass another five hundred billion dollar green

457
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 1: energy boondoggle next year? Or is it maybe Mitch McConnell

458
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 1: hates Donald Trump so much that he would probably rather

459
00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,959
Speaker 1: see Trump endorse candidates lose. He thinks that might hurt

460
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 1: Donald Trump his time as a leader. Needs to come

461
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 1: to an end. So you can pretty much assume whatever

462
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:09,640
Speaker 1: Jean Hannity is saying is whatever the line from absolute

463
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 1: Trump is. I mean, it just just goes straight from

464
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:13,399
Speaker 1: whatever the phone call is he had with the President

465
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:15,720
Speaker 1: earlier in the day to his audience here. But you

466
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 1: can also see, I mean, those McConnell comments, even though

467
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:22,280
Speaker 1: he delivers them in this very monotone Mitch McConnell way,

468
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 1: they really stirred up quite a frenzy. Tucker Carlson also

469
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:31,639
Speaker 1: responding to Mitch McConnell's comments, and I thought what he

470
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 1: had to say was actually kind of interesting in a

471
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 1: couple of ways. Let's taill usen to that doctor Oz

472
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:38,160
Speaker 1: is getting crushed by a stroke victim who was already crazy.

473
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:42,679
Speaker 1: It's bizarre. The question is why is this happening. We

474
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:44,359
Speaker 1: spent some time on the phone the other day calling

475
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 1: around to various smart political people to find out why

476
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 1: it's happening. We heard a lot of theories, almost all

477
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:52,239
Speaker 1: of which boiled down to Doc d Oz is a

478
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 1: bad candidate. Mitch McConnell, who's in charge of electing more

479
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 1: Republicans and the Senate gave virtually the same explanation yesterday

480
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:03,119
Speaker 1: any Chamber of Commerce launch quote. Candidate quality has a

481
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 1: lot to do with outcome, he said, In other words,

482
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 1: not my fault, they sent me bad candidates. Unfortunately, donors

483
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 1: and party leaders often do complicate it. They want candidates

484
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,680
Speaker 1: to talk about issues that they care about, which are

485
00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 1: often very different from the issues that the public cares about.

486
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 1: So he goes on to say that, you know, there's

487
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:22,879
Speaker 1: no bad candidates, there's just candidates that talk about the

488
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:27,160
Speaker 1: wrong issues. And he doesn't outright say stop talking about

489
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:29,960
Speaker 1: the economy, but he goes on to say the right

490
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 1: issues in his view, to talk about our immigration and crime,

491
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 1: which I thought was very interesting because there's also this

492
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 1: NBC News poll that we're going to cover. The number

493
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:42,159
Speaker 1: one issue isn't inflation anymore. It's actually threats to democracy,

494
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 1: which surprised the heck. Oatomy and gas prices have gone down.

495
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 1: So I'm not saying that there isn't still a lot

496
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:51,879
Speaker 1: of pain over inflation, that isn't going to still be

497
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,560
Speaker 1: an extremely important factor. But it's also very clear that

498
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,399
Speaker 1: the reason that Democrats have the shot they do in

499
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,880
Speaker 1: the midterms is because a cultural issue, and so he's

500
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 1: trying to say, like, we got to throw some red

501
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 1: meat to our own base, on our own cultural no question.

502
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 1: I mean, the thing is is that the Republican advantage

503
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 1: a couple of months ago was all economic. Dobbs, as

504
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:13,880
Speaker 1: we both said, threw a wrench into that and has

505
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:17,800
Speaker 1: caused an unleashed chaos. Even if Dobbs had not happened,

506
00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:20,160
Speaker 1: I still think that even at gas at what three

507
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:22,200
Speaker 1: point fifty or something like that right now a gall

508
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:24,640
Speaker 1: I think it's three eighty something like that National Prime,

509
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 1: it's still a dollar higher than it was when Joe

510
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:29,880
Speaker 1: Biden got elected. Without Dobbs, if Republicans could still prosecute

511
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,399
Speaker 1: you that case, they could remind people like, hey, remember

512
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 1: when you were paying X dollars a gallon? Continue to

513
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 1: look at your grocery store bill. But the scrambling of

514
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 1: everything and then look part of the frustrating thing in politics.

515
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 1: People are very short memories. I mean, you know, things

516
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 1: were very popular and then a monthly it's like gas prices.

517
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,639
Speaker 1: Everybody was like, oh, I'll pay high grass prices to

518
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 1: support Ukraine. Three months later they're like, I'm gonna kill

519
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 1: someone if the gas goes up by thirty cents. Some

520
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,679
Speaker 1: of us said that would happen. But the problem is

521
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,919
Speaker 1: is that in politics, especially whenever you're doing this up

522
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 1: and down game, you respond to whatever the it thing

523
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:06,640
Speaker 1: is at the moment. And because and Tucker's also not wrong,

524
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 1: which is that the GOP did never had a real

525
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 1: economic case to make. It was just everything sucks under Biden. Right,

526
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:17,440
Speaker 1: But that's a converse because now Biden is like, you're

527
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 1: getting one hundred dollars a month raised because gas prices

528
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:22,119
Speaker 1: are gone. Now I's like, well that's not really how

529
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:23,879
Speaker 1: it works, but you know, gas you are saving one

530
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 1: hundred dollars. But in a way, when you're like everything

531
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,119
Speaker 1: sucks because of Biden, if things get better under Biden,

532
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 1: he can say, hey, things got better under me, even

533
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 1: though we had no hand whatsoever in lowering gas price.

534
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:36,959
Speaker 1: The gas prices are just like this blaring sign that

535
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,919
Speaker 1: you drive by multiple times a day that tell you

536
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 1: how it's going right and so, and obviously have a

537
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 1: dramatic impact on people's bank accounts, and especially working class

538
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:50,360
Speaker 1: people are trying to like just drive to work. So

539
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 1: when you have it going up and up and up

540
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 1: and escalating every time you see it and hitting five

541
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,160
Speaker 1: dollars gallon and more in certain parts of the country,

542
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:01,919
Speaker 1: it does just feel like you're being squeezed tighter and

543
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,919
Speaker 1: tighter and tighter. And so even though the gas prices

544
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 1: are still very high in comparison and when he came right,

545
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 1: the fact that you have them starting to ease up

546
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 1: and go down, you know, that does change the landscape

547
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 1: ultimately here for how people are feeling now. Again, Republicans

548
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 1: were not actually planning on running on anything. I mean,

549
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 1: that was the real like in terms of elite Republicans

550
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:30,200
Speaker 1: and what their strategy was. Outside of Rick Scott and

551
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 1: his terrible idea to run on like a tax hike

552
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,880
Speaker 1: for working class people and getting rid of Social Security

553
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 1: or whatever his bogus idea was. Mitch McConnell and his

554
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 1: ILK were like, no, we're gonna run on nothing because

555
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 1: we don't need to, because things are bad enough and

556
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 1: Biden's approval is bad enough. We're just gonna make it

557
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 1: a rougherendum on Biden. And if it hadn't been for Dobbs,

558
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:54,200
Speaker 1: that would have worked out and worked out beautifully for them,

559
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 1: and they would have, you know, the Red Wave would

560
00:26:56,280 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 1: be in full effect. Dobbs has definitely changed that tous

561
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 1: and so now the fact that they are like literally

562
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 1: have nothing in particular that they are offering affirmatively to

563
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 1: the American people is definitely creating problem for them. So

564
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 1: lots of interesting finger pointing and recriminations here. Absolutely all right,

565
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:15,879
Speaker 1: let's go ahead and get to those pull numbers that

566
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 1: we've referenced now a couple of times. So a lot

567
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 1: of interesting things here, a lot of data points that

568
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:23,640
Speaker 1: could point really in either direction in terms of which

569
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:25,960
Speaker 1: party is going to do the best in the midterms.

570
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 1: So let's go and put this up on the screen.

571
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 1: This is from NBC News. They find that Bind's approval

572
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 1: is forty two percent, which is terrible, but actually is

573
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 1: a little better than he had been previously. The Republicans

574
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:42,119
Speaker 1: lead the Democrats forty seven to fifty five in terms

575
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 1: of I mean sorry, forty seven to forty five in

576
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 1: terms of the generic ballot, so they have a two

577
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:52,440
Speaker 1: point edge. You've got voters ranking threats to democracy as

578
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 1: the number one issue ahead of cost of living. That

579
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 1: was a surprise. And you have fifty seven percent saying

580
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:01,639
Speaker 1: the Trump investigations should continue you as opposed to forty

581
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 1: percent who say it should stop. If you dig into

582
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 1: the article that they have here, they also say it

583
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 1: paints a mixed picture of the twenty twenty two midterm landscape.

584
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 1: As I mentioned, President Joe Biden's job rating is mired

585
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 1: in the low forties. Republicans narrowly lead on the congressional

586
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 1: preference and by the way, if they lead it all

587
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 1: that means they're going to take the House, because it's

588
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:24,199
Speaker 1: the way that these districts are ultimately drawn. But with

589
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 1: Democrats nearly tying Republicans on voter enthusiasm, that is different

590
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 1: because earlier in the cycle, Democrats very apathetic, Republicans highly motivated.

591
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,159
Speaker 1: So the fact that you now have Democrats tying Republicans

592
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 1: on voter enthusiasm is a big deal. And as we

593
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 1: mentioned before, cost of living dropping to the second most

594
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 1: important issue, and I think jobs is number three, and

595
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 1: threats to democracy number one, which you know could mean

596
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,239
Speaker 1: any number of things to any number of people, and

597
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 1: very hard to say which party actually benefits from that

598
00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:00,959
Speaker 1: being the top issue. I think your instant would be like, oh, well,

599
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,480
Speaker 1: Democrats are talking about January sixth and the fake you know,

600
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 1: they're worried about the fake electric scheme. And all of this,

601
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 1: But we saw some polling previously that said basically the

602
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 1: parties were tied or Republicans even had a little bit

603
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 1: of an edge in terms of overall who voters thought

604
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 1: were more sort of trustworthy with democracy. That's a democracy

605
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 1: to a media trained ear is like January sixth. To

606
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 1: some people, it's like voter id or like you know,

607
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 1: like voter laws or whatever. I mean, or stop no,

608
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 1: it's stopped the steals. I mean, it's import everything. Yeah.

609
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 1: For so, if you're a Republican voter who believes the

610
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 1: election was stolen, you consider that a threat to democracy,

611
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 1: and that may well be your number one issue. The

612
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 1: reason I always think these are just a little bit

613
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 1: silly is look, cost of living is number two and

614
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 1: number three is jobs and economy. So I'm like, okay,

615
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:43,960
Speaker 1: you obviously combined the two and you get thirty percent,

616
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 1: so that is dramatically over the economy. Still put those together,

617
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 1: because it's not like people inextricable, right, And people aren't

618
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 1: just offered sort of an open ended like what do

619
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 1: you think is the most important issue. They're given a

620
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 1: list of choices to pick from, and so I actually

621
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 1: back to look at oh, how did this compare to

622
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 1: the last NBC News poll and the issue ranking, And

623
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 1: they didn't even ask about threats to democracy, so it

624
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 1: was hard to even have a baseline comparison. And I

625
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 1: also just think that people are pretty bad at assessing

626
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 1: what they're actually going to vote based on and like

627
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 1: what's really shaping their view of the party in power

628
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 1: the potential candidates that they have to evaluate. So but

629
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 1: I did think that that was interesting that there was

630
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 1: something other than inflation is number one, just because every

631
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 1: poll we have seen for months and months and months

632
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 1: now that has been the number one is shure, no question.

633
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:36,280
Speaker 1: Let's go to the next one up there, which is

634
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 1: also quite fascinating in terms of the overall image of

635
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 1: Democrats and Republicans, not a great sign. So images of

636
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 1: Democrats is thirty four percent positive, fifty one percent negative.

637
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 1: Not things that much better there for the Republicans thirty

638
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 1: four percent positive, forty nine percent negative. Fascinating. Yeah. Image

639
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 1: of Biden though, this is where things get very interesting.

640
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 1: He's forty percent positive, forty eight percent negative. Trump thirty

641
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 1: six percent positive, fifty four percent negative, Harris thirty two

642
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 1: percent positive, fifty percent negative. And Pence twenty five percent,

643
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 1: positive forty four percent. So I think that, you know,

644
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 1: the overall takeaway his Trump, that Trump favorability rating, that's

645
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 1: basically the same it's been since like twenty seventeen, thirty six,

646
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 1: and those people they don't just like him, they love him.

647
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 1: With Biden, I think it's a little bit softer, but

648
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 1: also there's a reason that his negatives are not as

649
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 1: high because people don't hate Biden. They're just like, eh, whatever,

650
00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 1: outside of certain people, whereas most of the people who

651
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 1: hate Trump really really really hate Trump. My personal favorite

652
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 1: is the Harris positivity figure at thirty two percent, and

653
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 1: Mike Pence also at twenty five, which you know, if

654
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 1: your Pence, maybe you look at that and you're like, oh,

655
00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:45,720
Speaker 1: there's no way I could beat Donald Trump in a

656
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 1: Republican primary. But apparently these people are delusional enough in

657
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 1: order to think that that is somehow possible. I think,

658
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:55,440
Speaker 1: of course, on top of this, Dobbs really did change everything.

659
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 1: Let's put this up there, which is that sixty eight

660
00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:00,120
Speaker 1: percent of Republicans express a high level of interesting the

661
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 1: upcoming election, expressing either a nine or ten scale versus

662
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 1: sixty six percent for Democrats. But the two point GOP

663
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 1: advantage is down from a seventeen point advantage in March

664
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,680
Speaker 1: and eight points in May. And the Polsters said that

665
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 1: they increase in enthusiasm is almost entirely attributable to the

666
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 1: Supreme Court decision. And that was always the issue. The

667
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 1: reason why everybody thought it was going to be a

668
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 1: blowout in March and in May was because Dems didn't

669
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:27,360
Speaker 1: have any real reason to come. They felt very apathetic.

670
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 1: Obviously the Inflation Reduction Act hadn't happened, there was no

671
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 1: you know, there's no legislative achievement, complete stasis on top

672
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 1: of the economic wreckage. Well now they have a reason

673
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 1: to get registered, to get involved, and when that happens,

674
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 1: it erases the ability of the massive sweep that we

675
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 1: were probably going to see in the Senate, and it

676
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 1: introduces that uncertainty combined with candidate quality, which could could

677
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 1: result in Democrats keeping the Senate. So that is kind

678
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 1: of how I look. It's like a confluence of so

679
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 1: many different things to feed into one another. Midterms turnout

680
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 1: is king because it's all about are your voters motivated

681
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 1: enough to show up? Did you give them a reason

682
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 1: why they're going to show up and vote for you.

683
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 1: As obviously, turnout is much lower in midterm elections than

684
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 1: it is in presidential years, So which side is able

685
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 1: to motivate their people and get them out that is

686
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 1: usually determinative. If you think back to twenty ten, the

687
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 1: year I had the glory of running for Congress, the

688
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 1: big problem for Democrats nationally where they just suffered. You

689
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 1: know what Obama characterized as a show lacking was their

690
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 1: side was just completely demoralized and apathetic. They just didn't

691
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,680
Speaker 1: show up. And on the other side, the Tea Party

692
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 1: energy was raging at the time and they were highly

693
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 1: highly motivated to turn out. So I still think Republicans

694
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 1: are extremely motivated. That's why you know this is going

695
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 1: to ultimately, I think end up. If I had to guess,

696
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 1: I'd say this is going to end up being a

697
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 1: very very close in terms of which party performs better.

698
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 1: With Dobbs, you now have given Democratic voters a very

699
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 1: clear reason why they should show up and vote, and

700
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 1: what is at stake and what is on the line

701
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 1: that's showing up in some new data of who has

702
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:11,560
Speaker 1: been registering to vote postdobs. So we covered the results

703
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:15,279
Speaker 1: in Kansas where the pro choice position prevailed overwhelmingly, even

704
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 1: in a state as conservative as Kansas, on that ballot

705
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:23,840
Speaker 1: question about amending the Kansas state Constitution. While part of

706
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:26,720
Speaker 1: that story was the fact that you had a massive

707
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:30,920
Speaker 1: wave of women postdobs registering to vote and then showing

708
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 1: up to vote on that ballid initiative, but there are

709
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:37,320
Speaker 1: some new data that indicates it's not just Kansas where

710
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 1: this phenomenon is occurring. They look in particular to go

711
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:42,719
Speaker 1: and put this up on the screen. They look in

712
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 1: particular at Wisconsin and Michigan. These are states where who

713
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 1: controls the governor's mansion and who controls the legislatures is

714
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:53,720
Speaker 1: really going to matter in terms of what the abortion

715
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 1: landscape looks like in the state. In Wisconsin, you have

716
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:03,800
Speaker 1: women out registering men by almost sixteen percentage points since Dabbs,

717
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:07,560
Speaker 1: and you have Democrats making up fifty two percent of

718
00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:11,440
Speaker 1: all those newly registered voters compared with seventeen percent of

719
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 1: new voters registering as Republicans. So you have a gender

720
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:17,320
Speaker 1: gap that is sizable, and you have a partisan gap

721
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 1: that is even more sizable. In Michigan, the story is

722
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 1: not quite as dramatic, but similar portrait that the registration

723
00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:28,960
Speaker 1: numbers paint here women out registering men by eight percentage points,

724
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:34,359
Speaker 1: Democrats outregistering Republicans by eighteen percentage points. Interestingly, and this

725
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:36,799
Speaker 1: is part of what made this data so compelling, is

726
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:40,439
Speaker 1: in states where abortion access is not really at risk,

727
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:44,440
Speaker 1: for example New York, they don't see this gender gap

728
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 1: and they don't see this partisan registration gap. So it

729
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 1: really is in the states like the more viscerally people

730
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:53,360
Speaker 1: feel like their vote is going to be connected to

731
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 1: what happens in the post Row environment, the larger these

732
00:35:57,520 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 1: numbers are and the greater the disparity is. So it's

733
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 1: pretty impelling evidence that Dobbs is driving a lot of

734
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:04,920
Speaker 1: voter behavior right now. I think that's quite obvious, and

735
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 1: you know it was dramatically underestimated, I think by the Republicans,

736
00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 1: and they are still flailing around. They really don't know

737
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 1: what to do with the message. You see this over

738
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 1: and over again, and you have some of these candidates

739
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 1: which are really shooting him toutor Dixon. You're saying not

740
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 1: even exceptions in the life of a mother once again,

741
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,040
Speaker 1: you can hold that position if you would like, but

742
00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 1: you are running in a definitively purple state. So it's

743
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 1: like the cad that's it's like, and actually doing yourself

744
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 1: no favor by running on that nationally and continuing to

745
00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 1: defend it. I mean, one of the things you should

746
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:36,279
Speaker 1: conclude is they actually believe it. And okay, that's fine.

747
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:38,719
Speaker 1: I respect this country and it's freedom of beliefs. But

748
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 1: don't be surprised then if a dramatically unpopular idea they

749
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 1: continue to defend is going to punish you at the

750
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:46,319
Speaker 1: ballot box. The next one on the corollary of whether

751
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:49,879
Speaker 1: it is actually screwed or not, those is also important. Yeah.

752
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:53,200
Speaker 1: So this is the major, major, major caveats, which I

753
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:57,879
Speaker 1: think is really important. And why you know, I am

754
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 1: not on the on the train of like Democrats are

755
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 1: going to have a great year. I think it is

756
00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:06,160
Speaker 1: decidedly a very mixed picture right now. To goad and

757
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:08,359
Speaker 1: put this up on the screen. And this is the

758
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 1: reason why you have seventy four percent of voters saying

759
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:16,320
Speaker 1: this country is on the wrong track. You have Biden

760
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 1: approval still only a forty two percent, You have the

761
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 1: generic ballot still at R plus two, and you have

762
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:24,880
Speaker 1: a lot of voters who say that their whole reason

763
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:27,280
Speaker 1: that they want to vote is to send a message

764
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 1: of opposition to Joe Biden. And this is the you know, ordinarily,

765
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:35,400
Speaker 1: if you saw these numbers, you would say it's done.

766
00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 1: Like Republicans are gonna rop this is you know, it's

767
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 1: a FATA company. There's basically nothing Democrats can do to

768
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 1: reverse the tide because you've got seventy four percent of

769
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:47,719
Speaker 1: people saying we're on the wrong track. They hate the president.

770
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,960
Speaker 1: It's not going well. It's done. But you know, there

771
00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 1: are some other countervailing factors. But if you still were

772
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:57,360
Speaker 1: gonna bet, you would ultimately bet on these longer term trends.

773
00:37:57,400 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 1: You would look at the fact that the polls have

774
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:03,319
Speaker 1: consistently understated Republicans, and you would say that even though

775
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:06,800
Speaker 1: the polling portrait when you look at these individual races

776
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:08,880
Speaker 1: might look like Democrats have a shot not only to

777
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 1: hold the Senate but to potentially to pick up races.

778
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 1: I would be very, very skeptical of the sort of

779
00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:19,040
Speaker 1: like overwhelming democratic hopes that are starting to emerge here. Yeah,

780
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 1: and the reason why I always present the caveat is, look,

781
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:23,960
Speaker 1: it happened in twenty sixteen. And here's the thing. All

782
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:26,680
Speaker 1: of the cope around the polls, they say they're going

783
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 1: to get better. It didn't happen. They were way worse

784
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty, right, And then since then, you know,

785
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 1: there was this whole convoluted theory about how Democrats are

786
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:36,920
Speaker 1: more likely to work from home, which means that they

787
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:39,320
Speaker 1: were answering more phone calls, which means that everything was

788
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:41,720
Speaker 1: weighted in their favor. I mean, I think that's probably true.

789
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:44,839
Speaker 1: But what that really just taught me is the insanity

790
00:38:44,960 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 1: and the chaos of our society over the last three

791
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:52,320
Speaker 1: years has injected uncertainty into all elements of American politics,

792
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 1: and that includes data science, polling, and economics. Of course,

793
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 1: that makes sense. So when I have lived through and

794
00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:02,719
Speaker 1: you did too, watching Live Susan Collins coming back from

795
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:05,360
Speaker 1: a twelve point deficit to win by a couple of points,

796
00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 1: Jamie Harrison losing by seventeen, Donald Trump almost winning Wisconsin,

797
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:13,680
Speaker 1: wheneverybody supposedly down seventeen points a day before the election,

798
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 1: I'm like, I don't know if I believe this stuff.

799
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 1: And in a lot of ways, whenever I see, you know,

800
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:21,839
Speaker 1: whenever I see what's Tim Ryan up seven, I'm like, yeah,

801
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:23,840
Speaker 1: I'm like, I don't believe it. Like Trump won the

802
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:25,759
Speaker 1: state by eight points, I'm like, I just simply don't

803
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:28,359
Speaker 1: believe that's the case. It's possible if he does win

804
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:31,319
Speaker 1: by eight I'll be like, wow, that's crazy. Frankly, only

805
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:34,520
Speaker 1: that would only confirm my insanity thesis. But this is

806
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:37,880
Speaker 1: the point of this, is that wrong There are certain

807
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 1: things with fundamentals that the Trump people would always point to.

808
00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:44,400
Speaker 1: They're like, yeah, look he's got bad ratings on the economy,

809
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 1: or he's got bad ratings I'm sorry on the pandemic. Yeah,

810
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 1: people say we're divided, but look at the economy, and

811
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 1: overwhelmingly a lot of voters it was always like a

812
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:55,040
Speaker 1: slight majority said the economy was better under Trump and

813
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 1: that they've trusted him in order to bring it back again.

814
00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:01,600
Speaker 1: Powerful message and one that ultimately was vindicated. Same on culture,

815
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 1: but more importantly, even though the wrong track number was very,

816
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 1: very high under Trump, you had to dig down and

817
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:10,600
Speaker 1: be like, okay, well, people who people trust in order

818
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:13,319
Speaker 1: to bring it back. And so with Biden to have

819
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:15,719
Speaker 1: a wrong track at seventy four, to still have a

820
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 1: generic ballot at R plus two, remember this too, you know,

821
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:22,880
Speaker 1: generic ballots of historically what is it underestimated Republican support

822
00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 1: by a couple of points, So maybe it's our plus

823
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:28,960
Speaker 1: four in that environment. Yes, it's still possible with candidate

824
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 1: quality and all that. The Senate stays Democrat, but you're

825
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:34,520
Speaker 1: still looking at I wouldn't call it a massive wave,

826
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 1: but in a way we may have almost done a

827
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:39,799
Speaker 1: Republicans may have done a disservice by predicting such a

828
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 1: massive wave that if they only modestly win, I mean

829
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 1: still win, like that's what a victory is. Well, and

830
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:47,319
Speaker 1: that is kind of where I think we circle back

831
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:49,520
Speaker 1: to McConnell's comments that we've brought you at the beginning,

832
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:51,760
Speaker 1: because I also see it it's a shot at Trump.

833
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 1: It's also a way of tempering expectations because they set

834
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:58,399
Speaker 1: the bar so high in expectations, so high that then

835
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:02,080
Speaker 1: if they just take the Senate and only by one seat,

836
00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:04,160
Speaker 1: people will be like, what the heck happened to the

837
00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 1: red wave here? So I think very much sort of

838
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:10,480
Speaker 1: tempering expectations and trying to lower the bar. Yeah, I

839
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:13,680
Speaker 1: mean I saw a poll out in Pennsylvania Oz and

840
00:41:13,719 --> 00:41:18,440
Speaker 1: Fetterman by Trafalgar that had a Fetterman up by was

841
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:21,759
Speaker 1: four or five points. To me, that's more likely the

842
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:24,280
Speaker 1: race of what we're talking about. I think he's probably

843
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:28,400
Speaker 1: ahead because Oz is just like determined to run the worst,

844
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 1: most out of touch campaign that he possibly can. But

845
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 1: do I buy that it's you know, last week there

846
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:35,640
Speaker 1: was a poll that had Fetterment up by like freaking

847
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:39,280
Speaker 1: eighteen points or something crazy. It's not that right. It's Pennsylvania.

848
00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 1: It's a tough year for Democrats. It's gonna you should

849
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 1: bet that it's going to be a close race in

850
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:49,279
Speaker 1: that state. And you know, Trafalgar, as skeptical as I

851
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 1: was of them back in twenty twenty, they ended up

852
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:56,359
Speaker 1: being a lot closer to reality than where a lot

853
00:41:56,440 --> 00:41:59,719
Speaker 1: of the other polsters were, So I kind of took

854
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:02,839
Speaker 1: in that at a point, was like, yeah, that's probably

855
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:05,680
Speaker 1: closer to what the actual reality on the ground. Here's

856
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:06,920
Speaker 1: the truth in a lot of Dems don't want to

857
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,320
Speaker 1: admit it. Tony Fabrizio, who worked for Trump, his polls

858
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:11,960
Speaker 1: were actually shockingly good. Yeah, ahead of twenty twenty, and

859
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:13,880
Speaker 1: so is Trifalger, Like those are the guys who I

860
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 1: look at what I'm like, Okay, although now let me

861
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:18,120
Speaker 1: just throw the wrench in the total other direction, which

862
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:20,680
Speaker 1: is that these couple of special elections we've had in Kansas,

863
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:22,960
Speaker 1: and where was the other one? It was another sort

864
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 1: of like Midwestern take dramatically underestimated democratic performance. So anyway,

865
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:30,439
Speaker 1: this is all just a way of saying I think

866
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:34,319
Speaker 1: the picture is extremely, extremely murky. You could put pick

867
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:37,080
Speaker 1: data points that would say Democrats are actually going to

868
00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 1: have a decent year. You could look at it and say, no,

869
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 1: there's no way Republicans are going to have a massive wave.

870
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 1: And I just think anyone who is predicting anything with

871
00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:47,439
Speaker 1: certainty is kind of foolish and full of shit. Yeah,

872
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 1: absolutely correct. Okay, let's move on. Let's talk about some

873
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:58,320
Speaker 1: geopolitics stories. A fascinating and interesting move happening over in Moscow.

874
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:00,800
Speaker 1: Let's go and put this up there on the screen.

875
00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:05,840
Speaker 1: Daria Duguina, she's the daughter of Alexander Dukan of Putin

876
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:09,920
Speaker 1: ally was killed in a car bomb on the highway

877
00:43:10,080 --> 00:43:14,560
Speaker 1: outside of Moscow. So Duguina, the daughter of Alexander Dugan,

878
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:16,919
Speaker 1: who I've spoken about, actually did an entire monologue about

879
00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 1: him after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. You know, people

880
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:22,800
Speaker 1: describe him as an ultranationalist, but I think the better

881
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:28,040
Speaker 1: way is a true like Russian czar raventist, you know,

882
00:43:28,160 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 1: somebody who genuinely believes in like the premissy of the

883
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:35,839
Speaker 1: Russian nation, of like the Russian people, of like restoring

884
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 1: essentially the Russian Empire. It hasn't a lettal to do

885
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:40,480
Speaker 1: with the Soviet Union in more like the hundreds of

886
00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:43,319
Speaker 1: years of Russian history that preceded him. As I said,

887
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 1: if you're interested, you go back and watch that monologue.

888
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:47,120
Speaker 1: I quoted some of the things that he talks about

889
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:49,840
Speaker 1: in the way that Putin allies can see the world.

890
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 1: To be clear, Putin and his circle have always kind

891
00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 1: of held him at an arms length and kind of

892
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:56,239
Speaker 1: seen him as a kind of crazy figure, which you know,

893
00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:59,560
Speaker 1: he almost looks like Rasputin, so makes sense. Anyway, His

894
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:02,719
Speaker 1: daughter was killed in a Toyota land Cruiser driving just

895
00:44:02,760 --> 00:44:06,560
Speaker 1: twenty miles west outside of Moscow. Now reportedly Dugan himself

896
00:44:06,600 --> 00:44:08,680
Speaker 1: was actually supposed to be in the car, and so

897
00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:12,200
Speaker 1: he was very likely the target of this assassination attempt.

898
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 1: Now in terms of the assassination attempt, and then obviously

899
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:19,480
Speaker 1: she was killed as well. A major murder investigation has

900
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:22,200
Speaker 1: now been launched by the Russian police, and this is

901
00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:25,720
Speaker 1: where things of course become interesting, because it can create

902
00:44:26,320 --> 00:44:30,759
Speaker 1: political pressure from all different sides. Immediately, the Ukrainians and

903
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:32,680
Speaker 1: Ukrainian officials were like, we didn't have anything to do

904
00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:35,239
Speaker 1: with this, Yes, we hate Dugan, this was not us,

905
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:37,439
Speaker 1: you know, don't try and do this. So they're trying

906
00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:40,800
Speaker 1: to distance themselves obviously from the attack. At the same time,

907
00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:45,399
Speaker 1: they are now opening investigations and pointing fingers in many

908
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:48,480
Speaker 1: different directions Crystal, which you have some of the details on, yeah,

909
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:51,160
Speaker 1: which is interesting, But like the major point is is

910
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:54,080
Speaker 1: that to have an assassination of such a high profile

911
00:44:54,440 --> 00:44:58,520
Speaker 1: Putin ally ulternationalists in the city, there's a variety of options.

912
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:02,440
Speaker 1: It could be legitimate Russian opposition. It could be you know,

913
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:06,560
Speaker 1: a targeted killing by the Russian state, allies or whatever

914
00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 1: in order to put pressure on Putin in order to

915
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:12,200
Speaker 1: ramp things up and have a revenge campaign. Or it

916
00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:14,840
Speaker 1: could be a domestic operation. You should put none of

917
00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:17,400
Speaker 1: these things past and with the Kremlin and their opponents.

918
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:19,840
Speaker 1: Could be the Ukrainians, I mean it really also could

919
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:22,000
Speaker 1: who knows, or Ukrainian affiliated people, I mean, who the

920
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:24,799
Speaker 1: hell knows. Right, So, before we get into, you know,

921
00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:28,480
Speaker 1: what the FSB is saying, and there was another dude

922
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:31,360
Speaker 1: who actually claimed credit that you should be very skeptical of.

923
00:45:31,440 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 1: Before I get into all of that, I think the

924
00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:36,960
Speaker 1: really important thing to understand is that, you know, this

925
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 1: is quite an extraordinary whoever is behind it, it really

926
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:46,280
Speaker 1: does sort of scramble the domestic political landscape for Putin

927
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:48,960
Speaker 1: and could potentially put more pressure on him. Because remember,

928
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:52,400
Speaker 1: as much as Putin is like, you know, an asshole

929
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:55,319
Speaker 1: and a hardliner and what all of that, people don't

930
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:58,759
Speaker 1: realize there are much more hardline elements who want him

931
00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:03,160
Speaker 1: to go even further, who want him to outright declare war,

932
00:46:03,200 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 1: which he hasn't done with his population team. Though it's

933
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:07,359
Speaker 1: very clear to you know, anyone who's looking at this

934
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:10,839
Speaker 1: is a war who wants a more general sort of

935
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:15,520
Speaker 1: like draft, to have a larger scale mobilization and to

936
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:20,160
Speaker 1: really justify like a maximalist, maximalist approach to Ukraine. There's

937
00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:22,799
Speaker 1: a lot of chest thumping this morning about we got

938
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 1: to hit the Ukrainian like official government buildings, and we

939
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 1: got to go after their intelligence services and those sorts

940
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:32,520
Speaker 1: of things. So whoever is responsible for it, it looks

941
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:36,240
Speaker 1: like that is the likely domestic political outcome in Russia

942
00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:39,640
Speaker 1: is potentially strengthening the hand of the hardliners who say

943
00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:43,560
Speaker 1: we should be going further now. The other possibility is

944
00:46:43,600 --> 00:46:45,720
Speaker 1: that it goes in the other direction and it freaks

945
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:48,080
Speaker 1: people out about like, oh geez, we thought that this

946
00:46:48,160 --> 00:46:51,040
Speaker 1: whole Ukraine situation could just stay in Ukraine and wasn't

947
00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:53,320
Speaker 1: really going to affect our daily lives here in Moscow,

948
00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:55,799
Speaker 1: and now we're freaked down about this and we want

949
00:46:55,840 --> 00:46:59,560
Speaker 1: to wind this whole war and military occupation back. So

950
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:02,640
Speaker 1: that's sort of the domestic political landscape. So the FSB

951
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:06,279
Speaker 1: says that they have solved the murder and you'll never

952
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 1: guess who they say was behind it. They're blaming the Ukrainians.

953
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:13,760
Speaker 1: They say it was a Ukrainian woman named Natalia Voth.

954
00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:15,840
Speaker 1: I don't know how you say this, rented a flat

955
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:19,480
Speaker 1: in Jugina's building, trailed her, planted the car bomb and

956
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 1: escaped to Estonia. As Maxidon at his Moscow burea chief

957
00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 1: at the Financial Times rights a lot of odd details

958
00:47:26,080 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 1: in this claim by the FSB. The woman who they're

959
00:47:29,200 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 1: blaming for the murder apparently carried out this professionalized car

960
00:47:32,160 --> 00:47:34,839
Speaker 1: bombing with her twelve year old daughter in tow and

961
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:38,400
Speaker 1: she allegedly followed Yuguina in a mini cooper with Kazakh,

962
00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:42,800
Speaker 1: Ukrainian and Danetsk People's Republic plates and then also fled

963
00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 1: to Stony through Estonia. So you're like, you know, and

964
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:48,960
Speaker 1: they putin they all hate like Estonia right now too,

965
00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:51,320
Speaker 1: so you're like, it's the Ukrainians and also screw Estonian.

966
00:47:51,320 --> 00:47:54,400
Speaker 1: It's all very convenient for their narrative. There was another

967
00:47:54,520 --> 00:47:58,440
Speaker 1: dude who was like a Kremlin critic who was expelled

968
00:47:58,480 --> 00:48:02,239
Speaker 1: from the Duma, who claimed responsibility for it and said

969
00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:06,040
Speaker 1: he was part of this like secret Republican partisan army

970
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 1: underground resistance to the Krumlin. There's reason to be very

971
00:48:09,160 --> 00:48:12,479
Speaker 1: skeptical of those claims as well, including the fact that

972
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:16,360
Speaker 1: this guy has apparently made up bullshit claims in the

973
00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:18,600
Speaker 1: past and got caught for it. Number one. Number two,

974
00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:21,799
Speaker 1: he put up some website that was like, if you're

975
00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 1: also interested in domestic political terror like, message me here.

976
00:48:26,880 --> 00:48:29,400
Speaker 1: I don't think yeah, can you imagine submitting some like

977
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:31,840
Speaker 1: internet form of like I would like to be a

978
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:34,239
Speaker 1: domestic political terrorists. I'm sure this isn't going to get

979
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:36,880
Speaker 1: swept up by an intelligence that so be skeptical, that

980
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:39,719
Speaker 1: has claims. Very hard to say, like who ultimately is

981
00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:41,960
Speaker 1: behind this? But everybody is sort of picking their favorite

982
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 1: villain here and spinning the story to their own ends.

983
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:47,080
Speaker 1: But I think the bottom line is it creates a

984
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:51,480
Speaker 1: lot of volatility and could potentially lead to, you know,

985
00:48:51,480 --> 00:48:54,440
Speaker 1: pressure for an escalation. Yeah, so, and like who benefits

986
00:48:54,440 --> 00:48:56,640
Speaker 1: from that? Right, There's a lot of people who benefit

987
00:48:56,680 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 1: from these things. It's not past the Russian state in

988
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:00,919
Speaker 1: order to do so. I meanbab wouldn't put it past

989
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:04,279
Speaker 1: some Ukrainian sympathizer or some rogue operation or whatever to do.

990
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:07,400
Speaker 1: So who knows how exactly these things go rogue also

991
00:49:07,440 --> 00:49:10,440
Speaker 1: in terms of the Russian sense, so I think undeniably

992
00:49:10,760 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 1: it creates a new set of conditions which both sides

993
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:16,480
Speaker 1: of course have to react to. Zelenski is actually a

994
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:19,600
Speaker 1: warning that a major Russian offensive could be coming in

995
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:24,160
Speaker 1: preparation for Ukrainian Independence Day, which is sometime soon, and

996
00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:26,759
Speaker 1: that this could be a prelude to blaming them in

997
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:30,040
Speaker 1: order to launch maybe more of a full scale type operation.

998
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:33,800
Speaker 1: So that's certainly possible. Putin apparently has been setting in

999
00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:36,759
Speaker 1: sits on the city of Odessa, as that's a strategic

1000
00:49:36,840 --> 00:49:39,279
Speaker 1: port in which a lot of the Green leaves from.

1001
00:49:39,320 --> 00:49:42,120
Speaker 1: Perhaps capturing that would be much more of a major victory.

1002
00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:44,400
Speaker 1: Perhaps this is a prelude to that. I mean, perhaps

1003
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:46,840
Speaker 1: she was just killed, you know, somebody was targeting Dougan

1004
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:50,319
Speaker 1: for some other reason. Again, though nobody knows, I will say,

1005
00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:52,680
Speaker 1: car bombings are not that rare, you know, in the

1006
00:49:52,760 --> 00:49:56,640
Speaker 1: form or in the in Russia. Political opponents of Putin

1007
00:49:56,719 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 1: and many other people have died in them in the past.

1008
00:49:59,200 --> 00:50:01,560
Speaker 1: But of course, you know, his opponents also know that.

1009
00:50:01,640 --> 00:50:04,600
Speaker 1: So the point is is that what this does is

1010
00:50:04,680 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 1: create a major flashpoint in domestic Russian politics. It's being

1011
00:50:08,239 --> 00:50:12,160
Speaker 1: covered there on state television, and you know, hardliner assets

1012
00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:14,360
Speaker 1: who were allied with Dugan are going to be pressuring

1013
00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:17,640
Speaker 1: Putin regardless even though they already were in lead up

1014
00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:19,800
Speaker 1: to this. And also it's going to bolster you know,

1015
00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:22,440
Speaker 1: how the Ukrainians are going to respond to whatever is

1016
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:24,600
Speaker 1: going on. So that's the reason why this, you know,

1017
00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:28,640
Speaker 1: one particular murder is so important is that it unleashes

1018
00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:30,839
Speaker 1: all of these new conditions with people on the ground

1019
00:50:30,840 --> 00:50:32,279
Speaker 1: are going to have to react to. It was a

1020
00:50:32,360 --> 00:50:34,400
Speaker 1: kind of situation. I was talking to our friend Diegor

1021
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:36,560
Speaker 1: about this and trying to understand it in the Russian

1022
00:50:36,600 --> 00:50:38,960
Speaker 1: domestic political context, and he was saying, you know, this

1023
00:50:39,080 --> 00:50:41,839
Speaker 1: guy kind of what he was best at is, yes,

1024
00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:47,880
Speaker 1: his sort of grand philosophy here Putin takes elements from

1025
00:50:47,920 --> 00:50:50,040
Speaker 1: and is you know, in line with some of his thinking,

1026
00:50:50,080 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 1: et cetera. But that what this guy is really good

1027
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:55,920
Speaker 1: is sort of like at marketing and branding himself, especially

1028
00:50:55,960 --> 00:50:59,520
Speaker 1: to Western journalists and the Western alt right. So his

1029
00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:01,960
Speaker 1: influen u wins as Putin's brain and all this has

1030
00:51:02,000 --> 00:51:04,520
Speaker 1: been kind of overstated in terms of the Western media.

1031
00:51:04,880 --> 00:51:08,160
Speaker 1: That being said, you know, he's someone that certainly, like

1032
00:51:08,320 --> 00:51:11,879
Speaker 1: the hard ultra nationalists in Russia see very much as

1033
00:51:11,960 --> 00:51:14,359
Speaker 1: an ally and they see this as you know, as

1034
00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:16,840
Speaker 1: a really really big deal. He also was saying, in

1035
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:20,680
Speaker 1: terms of the general Russian population, this isn't someone who

1036
00:51:20,880 --> 00:51:24,000
Speaker 1: is Dugan, is not actually a household name. Yes, So

1037
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:26,799
Speaker 1: to the extent that this was sort of like, you know,

1038
00:51:26,840 --> 00:51:30,439
Speaker 1: if it was a targeted killing to drive some kind

1039
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 1: of domestic political outcome, it would be targeted more at

1040
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:39,000
Speaker 1: that elite circle of ultranationalists or you know, Krumlin insiders,

1041
00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:44,000
Speaker 1: because the general population is not like super super knowledgeable

1042
00:51:44,080 --> 00:51:46,400
Speaker 1: about who Dugan is or like super sort of like

1043
00:51:46,480 --> 00:51:49,759
Speaker 1: caught up in whatever his philosophy is and obsessed with

1044
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:51,600
Speaker 1: him in his life. Very well said. You know, as

1045
00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:53,600
Speaker 1: I said, the Putin people have kind of shoved him

1046
00:51:53,600 --> 00:51:55,040
Speaker 1: to a side at a certain point. They got him

1047
00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:57,759
Speaker 1: fired from his job. They didn't actually like him kind

1048
00:51:57,800 --> 00:52:01,520
Speaker 1: of pitching himself and writing often in English, you know,

1049
00:52:01,560 --> 00:52:04,280
Speaker 1: for a very specific audience. So he's a complicated figure,

1050
00:52:04,320 --> 00:52:05,840
Speaker 1: you know, in his own right. And I'm sure this

1051
00:52:05,880 --> 00:52:08,279
Speaker 1: will only just bolster more of his calls for like

1052
00:52:08,360 --> 00:52:12,040
Speaker 1: the total subjugation of Ukraine. But anyway, it's going to

1053
00:52:12,080 --> 00:52:14,480
Speaker 1: create some conditions on the ground. Now, speaking of that,

1054
00:52:14,560 --> 00:52:16,360
Speaker 1: let's move on to this part, and let's put this

1055
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:18,920
Speaker 1: up there on the screen. This is something that we

1056
00:52:18,960 --> 00:52:21,279
Speaker 1: have been focused on very intently. So you guys might

1057
00:52:21,280 --> 00:52:23,880
Speaker 1: have seen this, but the Ukrainian government has been putting

1058
00:52:23,880 --> 00:52:27,400
Speaker 1: out all sorts of these propaganda videos of them striking

1059
00:52:27,520 --> 00:52:33,080
Speaker 1: CRIMEA targets, so Russian arms depots and others using specifically

1060
00:52:33,200 --> 00:52:36,800
Speaker 1: US provided weapons. Now here's the reason why that mattered,

1061
00:52:36,840 --> 00:52:40,239
Speaker 1: which is that Crimea of course taken by force and

1062
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:43,920
Speaker 1: annexation by the Russians in twenty thirteen. They later you know,

1063
00:52:44,320 --> 00:52:46,480
Speaker 1: confirmed it as some sort of like plebiscite and like

1064
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:48,080
Speaker 1: the people of Crimea want to be part of Russia.

1065
00:52:48,200 --> 00:52:52,279
Speaker 1: So anyway, Russia regards it as its own territory, as

1066
00:52:52,320 --> 00:52:55,840
Speaker 1: an official part of the Russian Federation. So of course

1067
00:52:55,880 --> 00:52:59,239
Speaker 1: this is contested international you know, circles, never recognized by

1068
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:02,520
Speaker 1: the United States, recognized by Ukraine, by Europe, by any

1069
00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:06,759
Speaker 1: international body. That being said, this is still the first

1070
00:53:06,800 --> 00:53:10,280
Speaker 1: strike by Ukrainians. Now, of course they consider it their territory.

1071
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:14,680
Speaker 1: So that being said, they're using our weapons to strike

1072
00:53:14,840 --> 00:53:20,280
Speaker 1: this territory which the Russians consider part of the Russian Federation.

1073
00:53:20,360 --> 00:53:22,040
Speaker 1: I'm not saying that's not a reason to do it,

1074
00:53:22,280 --> 00:53:24,799
Speaker 1: only that it does change the stakes a little bit

1075
00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:28,000
Speaker 1: in terms of past years by the United States and

1076
00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:31,600
Speaker 1: by many others that the Ukrainians would actually use US

1077
00:53:31,719 --> 00:53:36,200
Speaker 1: provided weapons to strike other AMMO depots and other things

1078
00:53:36,239 --> 00:53:39,760
Speaker 1: in actual Russia across from the border, or at least

1079
00:53:40,400 --> 00:53:44,279
Speaker 1: traditional Russia, you know, pre twenty thirteen Russia, and that

1080
00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:47,040
Speaker 1: could be regarded as an escalation on behalf of the

1081
00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:50,759
Speaker 1: United States and now we do know after the State

1082
00:53:50,840 --> 00:53:54,759
Speaker 1: Department was pressed that the United States has approved of

1083
00:53:54,800 --> 00:53:59,239
Speaker 1: these strikes of Ukrainian strikes on Russian occupied Crimea. Here's

1084
00:53:59,239 --> 00:54:01,719
Speaker 1: what they said, quote, we don't select targets, of course,

1085
00:54:01,719 --> 00:54:04,440
Speaker 1: and everything we've provided is for self defense. Any target

1086
00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:09,000
Speaker 1: they choose to pursue on sovereign Ukrainian soil is by

1087
00:54:09,120 --> 00:54:12,160
Speaker 1: definition self defense. So of course you know we're sticking

1088
00:54:12,360 --> 00:54:15,200
Speaker 1: with our definition. Now Listen, I am obviously partial to

1089
00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:17,520
Speaker 1: this definition. But the other side gets a vote to

1090
00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:21,799
Speaker 1: and so this could lead to some escalation on their

1091
00:54:21,840 --> 00:54:24,080
Speaker 1: behalf or look, I mean, it could just lead to

1092
00:54:24,360 --> 00:54:25,960
Speaker 1: some things that we really don't want to see, in

1093
00:54:25,960 --> 00:54:28,520
Speaker 1: which we've seen in the past. Anytime the Russians feel

1094
00:54:28,520 --> 00:54:30,919
Speaker 1: like the West is moving in a certain direction, they'll

1095
00:54:30,920 --> 00:54:34,440
Speaker 1: strike Leviv or they'll strike Kiev for no particular reason,

1096
00:54:34,520 --> 00:54:37,360
Speaker 1: you know, with these horrific weapons and you know bomb,

1097
00:54:37,440 --> 00:54:40,080
Speaker 1: you know, a bunch of civilians, theirs could lead to

1098
00:54:40,480 --> 00:54:43,279
Speaker 1: also some sort of strike back in that regard. But

1099
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:45,799
Speaker 1: I just think it's very very noteworthy for US to

1100
00:54:45,840 --> 00:54:49,600
Speaker 1: see very specifically that we are supportive as official Biden

1101
00:54:49,640 --> 00:54:53,560
Speaker 1: administration policy of US provided weapons being used by Ukraine

1102
00:54:53,680 --> 00:54:57,680
Speaker 1: to strike targets in Crimea, which also is very sensitive

1103
00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:00,319
Speaker 1: from a diplomatic point of view on our end, which

1104
00:55:00,360 --> 00:55:03,320
Speaker 1: is that the Ukrainians. Zelensky specifically said, we're going for

1105
00:55:03,400 --> 00:55:05,720
Speaker 1: it all. We will never see Crimea. I mean, listen,

1106
00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:08,680
Speaker 1: I'm sympathetic. You know I wouldn't do it either. Now though,

1107
00:55:08,840 --> 00:55:11,000
Speaker 1: does that mean though, that the war is going to

1108
00:55:11,040 --> 00:55:13,640
Speaker 1: drag on for years and years? I mean, these people, frankly,

1109
00:55:13,800 --> 00:55:16,359
Speaker 1: so far have not even able to retake territory in

1110
00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:18,319
Speaker 1: the eastern part of Ukraine that they already lost. How

1111
00:55:18,360 --> 00:55:20,479
Speaker 1: are you going to take back Crimea? You're already still

1112
00:55:20,480 --> 00:55:22,959
Speaker 1: fighting a defensive war. And even the New York Times

1113
00:55:22,960 --> 00:55:25,839
Speaker 1: Crystal put a story out this morning almost is kind

1114
00:55:25,880 --> 00:55:30,040
Speaker 1: of like a calmed down folks type thing. To its

1115
00:55:30,080 --> 00:55:33,759
Speaker 1: major supporters, they were like, Hey, these strikes that are

1116
00:55:33,800 --> 00:55:38,799
Speaker 1: happening on Crimea, they're mostly for social media purposes and

1117
00:55:39,200 --> 00:55:42,439
Speaker 1: they will have very limited effect. Russians actually keep most

1118
00:55:42,440 --> 00:55:46,040
Speaker 1: of their AMO depots outside of the range of Ukrainian weapons,

1119
00:55:46,080 --> 00:55:49,560
Speaker 1: so don't think that this is making some major effect

1120
00:55:49,840 --> 00:55:51,520
Speaker 1: on the war. So I found it very I found

1121
00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:54,839
Speaker 1: it very very telling that the Times felt the need

1122
00:55:54,880 --> 00:55:57,160
Speaker 1: this morning to come out with an update to all

1123
00:55:57,200 --> 00:56:00,520
Speaker 1: of its readers to just say, hey, this is not

1124
00:56:00,800 --> 00:56:05,440
Speaker 1: like any major strategic new offensive by the Ukrainians, right,

1125
00:56:05,440 --> 00:56:08,360
Speaker 1: It's mostly a social media campaign. Well, and it should

1126
00:56:08,400 --> 00:56:10,680
Speaker 1: be seen too in the context of the fact that

1127
00:56:10,719 --> 00:56:13,640
Speaker 1: the Ukrainians have been signaling for a while that they're

1128
00:56:13,640 --> 00:56:16,799
Speaker 1: going to have this new major counter offensive which we

1129
00:56:16,920 --> 00:56:20,000
Speaker 1: have not actually really seen, and so perhaps this is

1130
00:56:20,080 --> 00:56:22,880
Speaker 1: a way to create some splashy headlines that give the

1131
00:56:22,920 --> 00:56:27,080
Speaker 1: illusion of some sort of progress and ability capability to

1132
00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:31,399
Speaker 1: retake territory even beyond the line, you know, the sort

1133
00:56:31,440 --> 00:56:35,919
Speaker 1: of status quo before the latest Russian invasion. So it yeah,

1134
00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:38,839
Speaker 1: the the that it's mostly for social media purposes kind

1135
00:56:38,880 --> 00:56:41,719
Speaker 1: of makes sense in that regard, But I also do

1136
00:56:41,800 --> 00:56:46,240
Speaker 1: think it's worth keeping in mind that this is very serious.

1137
00:56:46,320 --> 00:56:49,480
Speaker 1: I mean, the policy of the US government had been

1138
00:56:49,600 --> 00:56:52,759
Speaker 1: sort of, you know, it had been very left intentionally

1139
00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:57,400
Speaker 1: unclear whether Crimea and the parts of eastern Ukraine that

1140
00:56:57,480 --> 00:57:01,000
Speaker 1: had already been taken by Russia before this latest invasion,

1141
00:57:01,520 --> 00:57:06,080
Speaker 1: whether striking in those regions was considered defensive, whether we

1142
00:57:06,080 --> 00:57:08,640
Speaker 1: were okay with our missiles being used for those purposes

1143
00:57:08,760 --> 00:57:11,400
Speaker 1: or not. Now they're clarifying that it is. And I

1144
00:57:11,440 --> 00:57:14,240
Speaker 1: mean it is hard not to describe that as an escalation,

1145
00:57:14,280 --> 00:57:16,600
Speaker 1: because it's saying, Okay, we don't want to just retake

1146
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:20,640
Speaker 1: the territory that we had before this initial, this most

1147
00:57:20,680 --> 00:57:23,680
Speaker 1: recent invasion. We want to actually go all the way back,

1148
00:57:24,040 --> 00:57:26,360
Speaker 1: even though you know, the reality facts on the ground,

1149
00:57:26,400 --> 00:57:28,720
Speaker 1: even though they weren't fully acknowledging that, hey, you know,

1150
00:57:28,800 --> 00:57:30,720
Speaker 1: Russia has taken these places over the facts on the

1151
00:57:30,720 --> 00:57:33,080
Speaker 1: ground were they had these parts of eastern Ukraine and

1152
00:57:33,120 --> 00:57:35,680
Speaker 1: they had Crimea. Nobody was really doing a lot to

1153
00:57:35,760 --> 00:57:39,080
Speaker 1: try to, especially in Crimea, take that territory back. So

1154
00:57:39,200 --> 00:57:41,920
Speaker 1: I think it's hard not to characterize this as an escalation.

1155
00:57:42,200 --> 00:57:47,400
Speaker 1: And you know, a major, a major move forward in

1156
00:57:47,480 --> 00:57:50,800
Speaker 1: terms of the at least signaling maximum's aims of the

1157
00:57:50,920 --> 00:57:53,840
Speaker 1: Ukrainian government and backed by the US. Let's put it

1158
00:57:53,840 --> 00:57:56,959
Speaker 1: this way. In twenty and sixteen, you know, a couple

1159
00:57:56,960 --> 00:57:59,080
Speaker 1: of years at the Crimea, there's a hot war waging

1160
00:57:59,200 --> 00:58:02,640
Speaker 1: in the east. Obama had shipped by the way, the

1161
00:58:02,640 --> 00:58:04,600
Speaker 1: major debate, and this is why I love actually knowing

1162
00:58:04,920 --> 00:58:06,840
Speaker 1: something about this. The major debate at that time was

1163
00:58:06,840 --> 00:58:09,800
Speaker 1: should we provide the Ukrainian's offensive weapons to you know,

1164
00:58:09,880 --> 00:58:12,439
Speaker 1: contest territory in the eastern part of the country. Yeah,

1165
00:58:12,480 --> 00:58:15,440
Speaker 1: there was never even a debate around providing and with

1166
00:58:15,480 --> 00:58:18,240
Speaker 1: weapons to go after crime that would have been seen

1167
00:58:18,440 --> 00:58:21,240
Speaker 1: as like an effective declaration of war against the Russian

1168
00:58:21,280 --> 00:58:24,680
Speaker 1: state in twenty sixteen, and you know, the debate was

1169
00:58:24,720 --> 00:58:27,280
Speaker 1: confined solely there. Now, of course, look, Russia invaded Ukraine.

1170
00:58:27,280 --> 00:58:29,360
Speaker 1: They're the ones who change the game, not us. Now

1171
00:58:29,600 --> 00:58:33,000
Speaker 1: though we get to decide, We're like, hey, where diplomatically

1172
00:58:33,080 --> 00:58:35,480
Speaker 1: are we drawing lines here? You know, because if you

1173
00:58:35,560 --> 00:58:38,880
Speaker 1: start striking territory which is you know, disputed also in

1174
00:58:38,920 --> 00:58:41,840
Speaker 1: the past, well, you know, that opens up all sorts

1175
00:58:41,880 --> 00:58:44,800
Speaker 1: of doors as to what does this all mean. And look,

1176
00:58:44,920 --> 00:58:48,920
Speaker 1: it just does. What worries me about it is if

1177
00:58:48,960 --> 00:58:51,880
Speaker 1: that's the aim, that's fine, You're welcome to fight your war.

1178
00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:54,560
Speaker 1: But our policy, and I'm doing my home monologue on

1179
00:58:54,560 --> 00:58:56,880
Speaker 1: this is effectively a blank check to Ukraine and say,

1180
00:58:56,880 --> 00:58:59,120
Speaker 1: you guys, do whatever you want. And I don't think

1181
00:58:59,120 --> 00:59:01,560
Speaker 1: that that's acceptable, not when we provide the vast majority

1182
00:59:01,800 --> 00:59:03,480
Speaker 1: of the arms, and if we are going to be

1183
00:59:03,600 --> 00:59:06,480
Speaker 1: the basically the sole funder of the Ukrainian military and

1184
00:59:06,520 --> 00:59:08,440
Speaker 1: the only reason that they exist. Then I think we

1185
00:59:08,480 --> 00:59:10,320
Speaker 1: should have a say as to what's good for us

1186
00:59:10,600 --> 00:59:12,680
Speaker 1: and to make sure they're like, hey, it's not actually

1187
00:59:12,680 --> 00:59:14,120
Speaker 1: in our interest that we have to keep providing the

1188
00:59:14,200 --> 00:59:16,360
Speaker 1: hundreds of billions of dollars of weapons for like a

1189
00:59:16,400 --> 00:59:18,880
Speaker 1: decade to fight over Crimea. They're like, you know, if

1190
00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:20,560
Speaker 1: you want to contest the East, fine, you know, be

1191
00:59:20,640 --> 00:59:23,240
Speaker 1: my guess odessa, et cetera. But we should have some

1192
00:59:23,360 --> 00:59:25,760
Speaker 1: say also in the prosecution of the war. Instead, we're

1193
00:59:25,760 --> 00:59:29,000
Speaker 1: taking a total backseat to what's happening there, which would

1194
00:59:29,000 --> 00:59:31,760
Speaker 1: effectively only guarantee that it goes on and on and

1195
00:59:31,800 --> 00:59:34,360
Speaker 1: on again. You know, I'm not saying if I was Ukrainian,

1196
00:59:34,360 --> 00:59:36,600
Speaker 1: I wouldn't want Crimea back too. They get to decide,

1197
00:59:36,600 --> 00:59:39,040
Speaker 1: of course, and do what they want with their resources,

1198
00:59:39,040 --> 00:59:41,160
Speaker 1: but when we are the major funder, then we should

1199
00:59:41,200 --> 00:59:42,880
Speaker 1: also have a say as well, that's what we think

1200
00:59:42,960 --> 00:59:45,240
Speaker 1: is good for us and for global for global peace.

1201
00:59:45,240 --> 00:59:46,960
Speaker 1: Although I think what's good for us as first always

1202
00:59:47,440 --> 00:59:52,120
Speaker 1: and yet again another potentially highly consequential decision that we'll

1203
00:59:52,120 --> 00:59:54,560
Speaker 1: be seen as a provocation from Russia that is being

1204
00:59:54,600 --> 00:59:57,760
Speaker 1: taken with no literally no public debate, yes, which has

1205
00:59:57,800 --> 01:00:01,680
Speaker 1: been the way of this entire war. Things are just done.

1206
01:00:01,800 --> 01:00:04,880
Speaker 1: The media doesn't explain what it means, what the risks are,

1207
01:00:05,200 --> 01:00:09,240
Speaker 1: what the possible blowback is. No, it's just presented as

1208
01:00:09,320 --> 01:00:12,280
Speaker 1: like this is what we must do, without any sort

1209
01:00:12,320 --> 01:00:14,680
Speaker 1: of case built on the other side for why there

1210
01:00:14,720 --> 01:00:17,400
Speaker 1: are risks involved in our course of action. Very true. Okay,

1211
01:00:17,480 --> 01:00:21,960
Speaker 1: let's talk about Donald Trump. This has always been following affidavit, saga,

1212
01:00:22,000 --> 01:00:24,400
Speaker 1: the warrants, the FBI. It almost feels like ancient history,

1213
01:00:24,440 --> 01:00:27,120
Speaker 1: even though it just started. It's funny how that was

1214
01:00:27,680 --> 01:00:30,400
Speaker 1: the latest in all of these wars. Let's put this

1215
01:00:30,480 --> 01:00:32,640
Speaker 1: up there on the screen, which is that, as you

1216
01:00:32,680 --> 01:00:35,680
Speaker 1: alluded to earlier times, the New York Times many other

1217
01:00:35,680 --> 01:00:38,840
Speaker 1: news organizations sued the FBI. The Department of Justice said, hey,

1218
01:00:38,880 --> 01:00:41,400
Speaker 1: you need to release the affidavit which was used and

1219
01:00:41,440 --> 01:00:44,480
Speaker 1: sworn before a judge which justified the search warrant on

1220
01:00:44,720 --> 01:00:47,840
Speaker 1: Mar Lago. Now, what we knew previously from the search

1221
01:00:47,880 --> 01:00:51,560
Speaker 1: warrant which was released, where the specific crimes and laws

1222
01:00:51,640 --> 01:00:54,200
Speaker 1: that which the FBI the Department of Justice alleged a

1223
01:00:54,200 --> 01:00:57,080
Speaker 1: criminal violation of which could be furthered and found evidence

1224
01:00:57,240 --> 01:00:59,840
Speaker 1: at mar Lago, which we know based on reporting and

1225
01:01:00,040 --> 01:01:02,320
Speaker 1: all these other things have to do not only with

1226
01:01:02,360 --> 01:01:06,600
Speaker 1: classified documents, but the you know, misstorage or hanging on

1227
01:01:06,640 --> 01:01:09,520
Speaker 1: to things too long based upon months of negotiation and

1228
01:01:09,600 --> 01:01:12,440
Speaker 1: possible you know, there's all sorts of allegations to what

1229
01:01:12,640 --> 01:01:14,720
Speaker 1: exactly the documents are and why Trump held onto them.

1230
01:01:14,720 --> 01:01:16,480
Speaker 1: But we seem to know that he held onto some

1231
01:01:16,640 --> 01:01:19,640
Speaker 1: documents and that under three separate statues of US law,

1232
01:01:19,880 --> 01:01:23,800
Speaker 1: the FBI raid happened. However, what we don't know is

1233
01:01:23,840 --> 01:01:27,960
Speaker 1: the actual probable cause and investigation and the past meetings

1234
01:01:27,960 --> 01:01:30,680
Speaker 1: with the Trump organization, the Trump lawyers that have occurred

1235
01:01:30,720 --> 01:01:34,600
Speaker 1: in the past. All of that is contained within the affidavit.

1236
01:01:34,760 --> 01:01:36,360
Speaker 1: Now we know a little bit as to why the

1237
01:01:36,440 --> 01:01:38,760
Speaker 1: DOJ doesn't want to release it. They say it would

1238
01:01:38,800 --> 01:01:41,960
Speaker 1: reveal the identity of potential cooperating witnesses. Now I don't

1239
01:01:41,960 --> 01:01:43,400
Speaker 1: know why they would say that unless they have a

1240
01:01:43,480 --> 01:01:47,200
Speaker 1: cooperating witness. We don't know who said cooperating witnesses. Some

1241
01:01:47,200 --> 01:01:49,240
Speaker 1: sort of mole, some sort of rat or whatever in

1242
01:01:49,280 --> 01:01:51,760
Speaker 1: either the Trump org, Secret Service or whatever. Somebody in

1243
01:01:51,800 --> 01:01:54,880
Speaker 1: the organization knows something. We also know that based on

1244
01:01:54,920 --> 01:01:58,880
Speaker 1: subpoenas of surveillance video and others. They claimed that even

1245
01:01:58,960 --> 01:02:02,320
Speaker 1: after the Trump people had said, yes, we're securing documents

1246
01:02:02,360 --> 01:02:05,480
Speaker 1: in this room because they actually have surveillance video, part

1247
01:02:05,520 --> 01:02:07,040
Speaker 1: of the search warrant was to get their hands on

1248
01:02:07,040 --> 01:02:10,400
Speaker 1: the video and also based on past testimony more to

1249
01:02:10,480 --> 01:02:13,080
Speaker 1: confirm that there was like a violation of law and

1250
01:02:13,080 --> 01:02:16,600
Speaker 1: an agreement of things that had been said. So based

1251
01:02:16,640 --> 01:02:19,160
Speaker 1: on that there has been an extraordinary public interest in

1252
01:02:19,200 --> 01:02:21,600
Speaker 1: this affidavit. What is in this affidavit? What was the

1253
01:02:21,800 --> 01:02:25,360
Speaker 1: probable cause with the government's case that judge found enough

1254
01:02:25,480 --> 01:02:28,720
Speaker 1: to say to grant a warrant for the FBI raid

1255
01:02:28,960 --> 01:02:32,000
Speaker 1: on Marlaco. Doj initially was like, no, we're not going

1256
01:02:32,040 --> 01:02:34,560
Speaker 1: to release it now. Usually they get an extraordinary amount

1257
01:02:34,600 --> 01:02:37,080
Speaker 1: of defference. But what's actually cool is that the judge

1258
01:02:37,200 --> 01:02:40,520
Speaker 1: finally actually in this case said that the government should

1259
01:02:40,520 --> 01:02:45,200
Speaker 1: propose redactions to the affidavit to the judge based upon

1260
01:02:45,320 --> 01:02:48,120
Speaker 1: and what will be a prolonged process from here on out,

1261
01:02:48,320 --> 01:02:52,600
Speaker 1: because he thinks the extraordinary public interest is so important

1262
01:02:52,920 --> 01:02:56,400
Speaker 1: that he is going to possibly order a public version

1263
01:02:56,440 --> 01:02:59,760
Speaker 1: of this affidavit now again, it will be heavily redacted,

1264
01:03:00,080 --> 01:03:02,200
Speaker 1: and having seen some of these, it is so annoying

1265
01:03:02,200 --> 01:03:04,160
Speaker 1: when you're reading through them. You just have whole pages

1266
01:03:04,400 --> 01:03:06,640
Speaker 1: which are black. But it can't hide everything. And my

1267
01:03:06,720 --> 01:03:09,080
Speaker 1: personal favorite is sometimes they forget to redact stuff that

1268
01:03:09,080 --> 01:03:10,960
Speaker 1: they were supposed to and you learn a hell of

1269
01:03:11,000 --> 01:03:14,320
Speaker 1: a lot more from that. Not necessarily fair to the

1270
01:03:14,320 --> 01:03:17,280
Speaker 1: people who it's supposed to be redacted to, but doesn't.

1271
01:03:17,280 --> 01:03:19,240
Speaker 1: We're in the news business. I'm going to take everything. Yeah,

1272
01:03:19,280 --> 01:03:22,560
Speaker 1: we're in favor of as much disclosure as least the

1273
01:03:22,560 --> 01:03:25,360
Speaker 1: whole thing. Yeah, yeah, absolutely that that would definitely be

1274
01:03:25,920 --> 01:03:28,400
Speaker 1: in the best interest of the of us in the

1275
01:03:28,480 --> 01:03:32,240
Speaker 1: news media. Yeah, I mean, I'm actually I'm surprised. I

1276
01:03:32,240 --> 01:03:34,560
Speaker 1: thought this judge, given the government was making the case

1277
01:03:34,560 --> 01:03:36,960
Speaker 1: and that they you know, could say, point to confidential

1278
01:03:36,960 --> 01:03:39,680
Speaker 1: informants and an ongoing criminal investigation, all of these things.

1279
01:03:39,680 --> 01:03:42,480
Speaker 1: They basically like, listen, we can't listen the information get

1280
01:03:42,520 --> 01:03:44,720
Speaker 1: out to the public. So the fact that the judge

1281
01:03:44,760 --> 01:03:46,959
Speaker 1: is even taking kind of a you know, a half

1282
01:03:47,000 --> 01:03:50,360
Speaker 1: measure here or a middle stance saying you can propose

1283
01:03:50,440 --> 01:03:52,439
Speaker 1: redactions will put some of it down. And he does

1284
01:03:52,480 --> 01:03:54,440
Speaker 1: go on to say, like, I don't know how interesting.

1285
01:03:54,480 --> 01:03:56,680
Speaker 1: By the time we get the redactions done, the public

1286
01:03:56,720 --> 01:04:00,440
Speaker 1: is going to ultimately find this, but that is better nothing.

1287
01:04:00,560 --> 01:04:03,680
Speaker 1: So I think the expectation is that the reactions are

1288
01:04:03,960 --> 01:04:05,960
Speaker 1: proposed redactions are supposed to be submitted this week, so

1289
01:04:06,000 --> 01:04:08,480
Speaker 1: I don't know exactly when we might get access to

1290
01:04:08,640 --> 01:04:11,840
Speaker 1: some portion of this affidavit. But you're exactly right. I mean,

1291
01:04:11,840 --> 01:04:15,760
Speaker 1: the search warrant contains certain information about exactly what crimes

1292
01:04:15,960 --> 01:04:18,400
Speaker 1: they expect to find, you know, evidence of and that,

1293
01:04:18,480 --> 01:04:21,880
Speaker 1: and that justifies the search. But the AFPHI davit gives

1294
01:04:21,920 --> 01:04:25,439
Speaker 1: all the detail about what led them up to concluding

1295
01:04:25,560 --> 01:04:28,400
Speaker 1: that there were crimes being committed and that you would

1296
01:04:28,400 --> 01:04:31,320
Speaker 1: have evidence at this location. It also would you know,

1297
01:04:31,520 --> 01:04:34,720
Speaker 1: very likely give up who it was that was informing

1298
01:04:34,760 --> 01:04:38,400
Speaker 1: on Trump or multiple people potentially who was informing on Trump,

1299
01:04:38,560 --> 01:04:40,720
Speaker 1: and all the reportings suggest that it's someone who is

1300
01:04:40,760 --> 01:04:43,320
Speaker 1: fairly close to him, close enough to know, like very

1301
01:04:43,360 --> 01:04:46,440
Speaker 1: specifically what these documents were and where they could be

1302
01:04:46,600 --> 01:04:51,240
Speaker 1: located within mar A Laco in typical Trumpian fashion. This

1303
01:04:51,360 --> 01:04:52,920
Speaker 1: is interesting, and this is something you and I were

1304
01:04:52,960 --> 01:04:55,800
Speaker 1: sort of talking about debating, like whether Trump wanted the

1305
01:04:55,800 --> 01:05:00,240
Speaker 1: affidavit to be released publicly on truth Social and we

1306
01:05:00,280 --> 01:05:03,320
Speaker 1: can put this up on the screen. He's calling for

1307
01:05:03,400 --> 01:05:07,600
Speaker 1: the release, pushing for the unredacted affidavits release, et cetera,

1308
01:05:07,640 --> 01:05:12,520
Speaker 1: et cetera. But while he's saying that publicly on truth Social,

1309
01:05:13,040 --> 01:05:16,880
Speaker 1: his legal team did not push for this to be

1310
01:05:17,120 --> 01:05:20,600
Speaker 1: released at all. In fact, they say that his lawyers

1311
01:05:20,600 --> 01:05:25,040
Speaker 1: were conspicuously absent from the legal proceedings surrounding the unsealing process.

1312
01:05:25,440 --> 01:05:28,400
Speaker 1: At any time, mister Trump and his team could have

1313
01:05:28,480 --> 01:05:31,760
Speaker 1: filed papers asking Judge Reynhart to make the affidavit public,

1314
01:05:32,080 --> 01:05:35,160
Speaker 1: but he chose not to. So I think he finds

1315
01:05:35,200 --> 01:05:39,479
Speaker 1: it publicly beneficial to posture like he's got nothing to hide.

1316
01:05:39,480 --> 01:05:41,360
Speaker 1: And of course he wants this affidavit on in the

1317
01:05:41,360 --> 01:05:43,560
Speaker 1: public and it's going to expose the DOJ and the

1318
01:05:43,600 --> 01:05:47,080
Speaker 1: FBI's crimes, et cetera, et cetera. But in reality, is

1319
01:05:47,200 --> 01:05:50,440
Speaker 1: he in there with his team fighting for the release

1320
01:05:50,480 --> 01:05:53,680
Speaker 1: of the affidavit. No, he is not, because you know,

1321
01:05:53,720 --> 01:05:56,120
Speaker 1: he doesn't know exactly what's in here, and it's very

1322
01:05:56,120 --> 01:05:58,440
Speaker 1: possible that there are things in here that are actively

1323
01:05:58,520 --> 01:06:00,320
Speaker 1: damaging to him and a problem for him. Well that's

1324
01:06:00,320 --> 01:06:02,720
Speaker 1: what you said too, which is beyond him. It's like, look,

1325
01:06:02,760 --> 01:06:04,560
Speaker 1: this is the government's case. You know. The Trump people

1326
01:06:04,600 --> 01:06:06,440
Speaker 1: haven't even had a chance to respond, like maybe the

1327
01:06:06,480 --> 01:06:09,320
Speaker 1: government is lying. Maybe use some informat you. So it's

1328
01:06:09,360 --> 01:06:11,200
Speaker 1: not actually fair, And that's part of the reason why

1329
01:06:11,240 --> 01:06:13,439
Speaker 1: these things don't come out, part of the reason why

1330
01:06:13,520 --> 01:06:16,040
Speaker 1: I think that in general, beyond a news interest, that

1331
01:06:16,080 --> 01:06:18,400
Speaker 1: it all should come out. This is a public interest case,

1332
01:06:18,520 --> 01:06:21,000
Speaker 1: deal with it. Yes, I understand that it's different and

1333
01:06:21,080 --> 01:06:24,080
Speaker 1: that Trump is not above the law, but in terms

1334
01:06:24,160 --> 01:06:27,200
Speaker 1: of Donald Trump and his potential to actually pressure the

1335
01:06:27,200 --> 01:06:29,200
Speaker 1: system and whatever, that is all going to come from

1336
01:06:29,280 --> 01:06:32,120
Speaker 1: small d democratic means, and from his perspective, you should

1337
01:06:32,120 --> 01:06:36,160
Speaker 1: release anything possible. And look, I mean to Trump's case

1338
01:06:36,800 --> 01:06:40,880
Speaker 1: during Ukraine Gate, even though the quote perfect phone call

1339
01:06:41,240 --> 01:06:44,520
Speaker 1: was not good for him, he released it and eventually

1340
01:06:44,520 --> 01:06:47,160
Speaker 1: convinced most people it was a quote perfect phone call,

1341
01:06:47,200 --> 01:06:49,320
Speaker 1: even if there was some stuff in there which you know, sketch.

1342
01:06:49,320 --> 01:06:50,920
Speaker 1: I'm not saying it was a criminal act, by the way,

1343
01:06:50,960 --> 01:06:53,080
Speaker 1: but just like, okay, well, you know, it's clearly a

1344
01:06:53,080 --> 01:06:56,000
Speaker 1: pressure in a certain way. As I've always said, the

1345
01:06:56,080 --> 01:06:58,680
Speaker 1: most disgusting part to me of Zelensky's phone call with

1346
01:06:58,720 --> 01:07:00,880
Speaker 1: Trump is when he's like, oh, wasn't we stay in

1347
01:07:00,920 --> 01:07:04,520
Speaker 1: Trump Tower? And I was like, uh, so cool. This

1348
01:07:04,680 --> 01:07:06,880
Speaker 1: was before he was Heroes the List, before he was

1349
01:07:06,880 --> 01:07:09,800
Speaker 1: Winston Churchill. He was stroking Trump and be like, I

1350
01:07:09,840 --> 01:07:12,960
Speaker 1: loved your hotel. You have the best hotel, Trump Tower.

1351
01:07:13,000 --> 01:07:15,840
Speaker 1: That's where we are see that. I find, frankly a

1352
01:07:15,920 --> 01:07:19,240
Speaker 1: lot more objection is really whatever was happening with the military.

1353
01:07:19,400 --> 01:07:22,480
Speaker 1: But again, I just think that transparency probably only helps him,

1354
01:07:22,600 --> 01:07:25,360
Speaker 1: you know, prosecute this case. Everybody can always find picking

1355
01:07:25,360 --> 01:07:29,040
Speaker 1: and choosing of what convenient facts or whatever are there

1356
01:07:29,080 --> 01:07:32,320
Speaker 1: for why he's quote exonerated as he always would claim

1357
01:07:32,400 --> 01:07:34,960
Speaker 1: so to his own public interest case. I think it's

1358
01:07:35,080 --> 01:07:38,040
Speaker 1: well he could maybe at least of the affidavit was revealed,

1359
01:07:38,200 --> 01:07:41,040
Speaker 1: he could maybe like actually figure out what his defense

1360
01:07:41,160 --> 01:07:43,400
Speaker 1: is and lean into like pick a narrative, you know,

1361
01:07:43,560 --> 01:07:47,040
Speaker 1: because they have just been throwing everything against the wall

1362
01:07:47,080 --> 01:07:51,200
Speaker 1: that they possibly can was that it was planted, it's confidential,

1363
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:54,320
Speaker 1: it's you know, actually ID classified this. So it's totally

1364
01:07:54,400 --> 01:07:56,520
Speaker 1: cool and I take I mean, they've just gone cycled

1365
01:07:56,520 --> 01:07:59,160
Speaker 1: through everything that they could possibly think of, so maybe

1366
01:07:59,200 --> 01:08:01,320
Speaker 1: if they knew a little bit more information, they could

1367
01:08:01,360 --> 01:08:05,120
Speaker 1: like construct one crazy narrative and sort of stick with

1368
01:08:05,160 --> 01:08:07,680
Speaker 1: it and keep pursuing that, because that's what they seem

1369
01:08:07,720 --> 01:08:10,640
Speaker 1: to be most successful at. Absolutely correct. Okay, it's time

1370
01:08:10,640 --> 01:08:13,560
Speaker 1: for a solemn occasion here points They always say that,

1371
01:08:13,600 --> 01:08:15,120
Speaker 1: you know, you should never rub it in when people

1372
01:08:15,160 --> 01:08:17,479
Speaker 1: are down. So we have a moment of silence, and yeah, well,

1373
01:08:17,600 --> 01:08:19,320
Speaker 1: if some people listen to this a podcasts so I

1374
01:08:19,320 --> 01:08:21,040
Speaker 1: don't think that would work. But you guys can take

1375
01:08:21,080 --> 01:08:24,080
Speaker 1: your own moments of silence while we continue to describe

1376
01:08:24,080 --> 01:08:26,559
Speaker 1: the story. So we got the tragic, tragic news for

1377
01:08:26,600 --> 01:08:28,240
Speaker 1: the country. Let's go ahead and put it up there

1378
01:08:28,280 --> 01:08:33,720
Speaker 1: on the screen. CNN has officially fired Brian Stelter of

1379
01:08:33,800 --> 01:08:39,160
Speaker 1: Reliable Sources, canceling his show unceremoniously and giving him only

1380
01:08:39,200 --> 01:08:41,519
Speaker 1: a couple of days notice. Please put the New York

1381
01:08:41,560 --> 01:08:44,440
Speaker 1: Times story up there on the screen. What they describe

1382
01:08:44,439 --> 01:08:47,200
Speaker 1: in here is that Stelter was called into Chris Lick,

1383
01:08:47,200 --> 01:08:50,400
Speaker 1: who's the new boss over at CNN's office, on Wednesday.

1384
01:08:50,680 --> 01:08:54,519
Speaker 1: Reporting indicates he emerged ashen and after that meeting, the

1385
01:08:54,560 --> 01:08:58,240
Speaker 1: news slowly broke his show with a last show would

1386
01:08:58,280 --> 01:09:00,680
Speaker 1: air on Sunday. It has aired in Fortunately, we do

1387
01:09:00,720 --> 01:09:02,599
Speaker 1: have a clip of bet for all of you to see,

1388
01:09:02,720 --> 01:09:06,080
Speaker 1: but it is interesting only in this light. As we

1389
01:09:06,120 --> 01:09:08,519
Speaker 1: have discussed, we had the video of that many of

1390
01:09:08,560 --> 01:09:10,479
Speaker 1: you saw on our channel about John Malone, he's a

1391
01:09:10,600 --> 01:09:14,519
Speaker 1: major investor in Discovery, which is the parent company of CNN,

1392
01:09:14,600 --> 01:09:16,920
Speaker 1: has said I want to see CNN back, get back

1393
01:09:17,080 --> 01:09:19,559
Speaker 1: to hard news. We know that Chris Licked was tasked

1394
01:09:19,560 --> 01:09:23,120
Speaker 1: by David Zaslav, who's a new CEO of Discovery, to

1395
01:09:23,520 --> 01:09:27,559
Speaker 1: completely undo the Zucker era over at CNN. One of

1396
01:09:27,560 --> 01:09:30,080
Speaker 1: his first acts that the network is no more stupid

1397
01:09:30,120 --> 01:09:33,200
Speaker 1: breaking news banners unless it's real. The next one was

1398
01:09:33,280 --> 01:09:38,919
Speaker 1: cleaning out many of Zucker's people, also immediately canceling CNN Plus.

1399
01:09:39,040 --> 01:09:42,200
Speaker 1: Since then, there has been open reporting that Chris Licked

1400
01:09:42,360 --> 01:09:46,240
Speaker 1: and David Zaslav, the brass over there, cannot stand Jim

1401
01:09:46,240 --> 01:09:51,080
Speaker 1: Acosta and Brian Stelter's posturing as partisan as going after

1402
01:09:51,160 --> 01:09:54,439
Speaker 1: Fox becoming basically just clowns on the network which are

1403
01:09:54,520 --> 01:09:58,720
Speaker 1: open partisan hacks. And it is not a surprise then

1404
01:09:59,000 --> 01:10:02,120
Speaker 1: that Chris is first first real fire and firing and

1405
01:10:02,160 --> 01:10:05,680
Speaker 1: re shape of the schedule is to specifically go go

1406
01:10:05,800 --> 01:10:09,160
Speaker 1: after Stelter, who was the real face of this kind

1407
01:10:09,200 --> 01:10:13,280
Speaker 1: of contingent at CNN. So what that led to the

1408
01:10:13,320 --> 01:10:16,799
Speaker 1: final cancelation of the show. And I think, actually, Crystal,

1409
01:10:17,000 --> 01:10:20,559
Speaker 1: the sign off by Stelter just tells us exactly why

1410
01:10:20,840 --> 01:10:23,280
Speaker 1: he really needed to go in the first place. We

1411
01:10:23,360 --> 01:10:25,400
Speaker 1: have some of that. Let's take a listen. You know,

1412
01:10:25,439 --> 01:10:28,040
Speaker 1: I love this show, This small but mighty show punged

1413
01:10:28,080 --> 01:10:32,679
Speaker 1: above its weight for so many years. Even a former

1414
01:10:32,720 --> 01:10:37,000
Speaker 1: president commented on the cancelation. Reliable Sources has been a

1415
01:10:37,080 --> 01:10:39,720
Speaker 1: one of a kind show and a popular show. This

1416
01:10:39,800 --> 01:10:43,040
Speaker 1: is one of CNN's highest rated weekend shows. So I

1417
01:10:43,080 --> 01:10:45,120
Speaker 1: want to say thank you to all of you watching

1418
01:10:45,160 --> 01:10:47,240
Speaker 1: around the world. And by that he means a couple

1419
01:10:47,320 --> 01:10:51,400
Speaker 1: hundred thousand people, but highest rated weekend out the weekends

1420
01:10:51,400 --> 01:10:56,800
Speaker 1: on cable news are garbage. Yeah, yeah, even a one

1421
01:10:56,880 --> 01:11:01,280
Speaker 1: of THEO and I also love him being like like

1422
01:11:01,320 --> 01:11:05,160
Speaker 1: they're David versus the life like small but mighty show

1423
01:11:05,240 --> 01:11:07,519
Speaker 1: the punched above. It's way, are you kiddy? Like you

1424
01:11:07,560 --> 01:11:12,800
Speaker 1: work for this gigantic, multi billion dollar multinational brand and

1425
01:11:12,840 --> 01:11:15,240
Speaker 1: you're acting like you'res that like just the little guy

1426
01:11:15,280 --> 01:11:20,799
Speaker 1: out there doing his best hilarious licked has said after

1427
01:11:21,160 --> 01:11:24,160
Speaker 1: Stelter's firing. He said, there will be moves to CNN

1428
01:11:24,200 --> 01:11:27,040
Speaker 1: employees at editorial meeting. There will be moves you may

1429
01:11:27,040 --> 01:11:29,880
Speaker 1: not agree with or understand. I want to acknowledge everyone

1430
01:11:29,920 --> 01:11:32,160
Speaker 1: that this is a time of change. I know that

1431
01:11:32,320 --> 01:11:36,040
Speaker 1: it is unsettling. So I mean, I've given my sort

1432
01:11:36,040 --> 01:11:41,400
Speaker 1: of assessment of all of this Stelter. Stelter kept his

1433
01:11:41,520 --> 01:11:46,320
Speaker 1: slot when he was like very clearly not good at

1434
01:11:46,320 --> 01:11:49,360
Speaker 1: being in televisioning or put aside his ideology or any actions.

1435
01:11:49,520 --> 01:11:54,360
Speaker 1: He's just like not good at being a television as always,

1436
01:11:54,360 --> 01:11:55,840
Speaker 1: Like I'm not going to claim I don't sit weird

1437
01:11:55,880 --> 01:12:00,479
Speaker 1: like up sometimes I've told the story before. I mean

1438
01:12:00,520 --> 01:12:02,439
Speaker 1: I went on that show and I don't remember what

1439
01:12:02,439 --> 01:12:04,640
Speaker 1: we were talking about, impeachment or something like that. I

1440
01:12:04,680 --> 01:12:07,000
Speaker 1: said something which was, you know, kind of a bomb

1441
01:12:07,000 --> 01:12:09,000
Speaker 1: in terms of cable news world, like not something that

1442
01:12:09,040 --> 01:12:12,040
Speaker 1: people normally say on these shows. And he was very

1443
01:12:12,160 --> 01:12:14,920
Speaker 1: unable to process in real time what I was saying.

1444
01:12:14,960 --> 01:12:17,560
Speaker 1: It was very clear he had a list of questions,

1445
01:12:17,640 --> 01:12:19,880
Speaker 1: and he asked me the question and then it didn't

1446
01:12:19,880 --> 01:12:21,439
Speaker 1: matter what I said. He was going to go on

1447
01:12:21,520 --> 01:12:24,960
Speaker 1: to question number two and just very robotically so this

1448
01:12:25,200 --> 01:12:28,439
Speaker 1: was anyway, the reason he kept the slot in spite

1449
01:12:28,479 --> 01:12:32,240
Speaker 1: of poor ratings and poor performance was because he was

1450
01:12:32,360 --> 01:12:35,360
Speaker 1: willing to toe the line for Jeff Sucker when it counted.

1451
01:12:35,680 --> 01:12:39,200
Speaker 1: And this became really clear in the whole Chris and

1452
01:12:39,200 --> 01:12:42,519
Speaker 1: Andrew Cuomo scandal when he went out on the late

1453
01:12:42,600 --> 01:12:46,040
Speaker 1: night shows Brian Stelter did and was willing to defend

1454
01:12:46,800 --> 01:12:51,400
Speaker 1: CNN's handling of the whole Chris Cuomo situation in spite

1455
01:12:51,439 --> 01:12:53,880
Speaker 1: of that, I mean, it was a clear violation of

1456
01:12:53,920 --> 01:12:57,040
Speaker 1: journalistic norms, and your job as the media critic is

1457
01:12:57,040 --> 01:13:00,000
Speaker 1: supposed to be not just to criticize other media platforms,

1458
01:13:00,280 --> 01:13:03,000
Speaker 1: but to apply that critical lens to your own media

1459
01:13:03,040 --> 01:13:05,920
Speaker 1: platform as well. And so the whole reason he was

1460
01:13:05,960 --> 01:13:09,080
Speaker 1: there was because he was a Zucker loyalist and he

1461
01:13:09,160 --> 01:13:11,720
Speaker 1: was willing to toe the sort of CNN propagy and

1462
01:13:11,800 --> 01:13:15,800
Speaker 1: the line. And so once his benefactor was gone, immediately

1463
01:13:15,880 --> 01:13:18,320
Speaker 1: the reporting started that his head was probably on the

1464
01:13:18,400 --> 01:13:22,360
Speaker 1: chopping block. Now, listen, I am skeptical, number one, I'm

1465
01:13:22,400 --> 01:13:25,439
Speaker 1: skeptical that the Chrystlick changes are really actually going to

1466
01:13:25,479 --> 01:13:29,160
Speaker 1: improve CNN. My problem isn't that CNN has an ideological lens.

1467
01:13:29,160 --> 01:13:31,519
Speaker 1: My problem is that they get stories wrong and that

1468
01:13:31,560 --> 01:13:35,280
Speaker 1: they have a total partisan bias, just like MSNBC does

1469
01:13:35,320 --> 01:13:37,840
Speaker 1: and just like vox News does as well. That makes

1470
01:13:37,840 --> 01:13:44,120
Speaker 1: them boring, predictable, and oftentimes like inaccurate, and like causes

1471
01:13:44,160 --> 01:13:47,080
Speaker 1: them to lie in service of sort of Democratic party elites.

1472
01:13:47,479 --> 01:13:50,080
Speaker 1: I don't know that the changes that he is proposing here,

1473
01:13:50,160 --> 01:13:52,519
Speaker 1: which is to make it more quote unquote centrist, where

1474
01:13:52,520 --> 01:13:54,719
Speaker 1: it's like, well, this size says, but that side also

1475
01:13:54,800 --> 01:13:57,080
Speaker 1: says this is going to make it any better. It

1476
01:13:57,160 --> 01:13:59,080
Speaker 1: just means you're sort of just like carrying water for

1477
01:13:59,160 --> 01:14:02,479
Speaker 1: Beltway conventional wisdom and like, you know, a similar cadre

1478
01:14:02,600 --> 01:14:04,840
Speaker 1: of the leads we'll see. I'm also skeptical that those

1479
01:14:04,920 --> 01:14:07,559
Speaker 1: changes are ultimately going to last. That's the real because

1480
01:14:07,640 --> 01:14:11,479
Speaker 1: Trump is going to be back, and you know what's

1481
01:14:11,520 --> 01:14:14,600
Speaker 1: going to happen. The hosts who are willing to be

1482
01:14:14,760 --> 01:14:16,640
Speaker 1: sort of the most out there in terms of what

1483
01:14:16,680 --> 01:14:18,839
Speaker 1: they're saying about Trump are going to get the highest ratings.

1484
01:14:19,240 --> 01:14:21,759
Speaker 1: And ultimately it's a business, and is he really gonna

1485
01:14:21,920 --> 01:14:26,120
Speaker 1: like focus on or promote the hosts who are getting

1486
01:14:26,120 --> 01:14:28,360
Speaker 1: poor ratings because they're staying at this sort of like

1487
01:14:28,640 --> 01:14:32,200
Speaker 1: you know, Centristy milk Toast. One side says, but the

1488
01:14:32,200 --> 01:14:35,160
Speaker 1: other side says Lane, when the people who are willing

1489
01:14:35,200 --> 01:14:37,640
Speaker 1: to throw the bombs are getting all the eyeballs. So

1490
01:14:37,760 --> 01:14:42,920
Speaker 1: I'm very skeptical that ultimately the business model of Trump

1491
01:14:43,000 --> 01:14:45,200
Speaker 1: derangement isn't going to be what prevails in the end.

1492
01:14:45,240 --> 01:14:47,439
Speaker 1: I completely agree with you, and just to give everybody

1493
01:14:47,479 --> 01:14:50,320
Speaker 1: a trip down memory Lane, Media Research Center put together

1494
01:14:50,320 --> 01:14:53,720
Speaker 1: a highlight reel over on Brian Stelter's career. Let's take

1495
01:14:53,760 --> 01:14:57,720
Speaker 1: a listen to understand why so many Republicans have abandoned democracy.

1496
01:14:57,920 --> 01:15:01,080
Speaker 1: You have to hear the poisonous proper what if folks

1497
01:15:01,120 --> 01:15:03,960
Speaker 1: in the reality based, reality based, reality based media do

1498
01:15:04,080 --> 01:15:06,840
Speaker 1: in the coming weeks? Biden secret emails. This is a

1499
01:15:06,880 --> 01:15:10,120
Speaker 1: classic example of the right wing media machine. When we're

1500
01:15:10,160 --> 01:15:13,040
Speaker 1: not able to say that Hunter Biden's laptop is a

1501
01:15:13,080 --> 01:15:16,799
Speaker 1: story worth pursuing, you say we're not allow age. Who's

1502
01:15:16,880 --> 01:15:19,960
Speaker 1: the people stopping the conversation? Who are they? Is it

1503
01:15:20,000 --> 01:15:22,400
Speaker 1: possible to make Fox News viewers change their minds about

1504
01:15:22,439 --> 01:15:25,439
Speaker 1: key issues just by having them change the channel. Entire

1505
01:15:25,560 --> 01:15:29,000
Speaker 1: media companies essentially exist to tear down Joe Biden. Can

1506
01:15:29,040 --> 01:15:31,880
Speaker 1: we have an honest conversation about gas prices. Has the

1507
01:15:31,880 --> 01:15:34,360
Speaker 1: coverage been out of proportion, out of step with the

1508
01:15:34,400 --> 01:15:36,880
Speaker 1: American public? Too much of the US media chatter is

1509
01:15:36,960 --> 01:15:39,559
Speaker 1: distorted to the point of being dishonest. Jan A. Milbank

1510
01:15:39,600 --> 01:15:41,559
Speaker 1: here's his column for The Post this weekend, and he

1511
01:15:41,600 --> 01:15:44,080
Speaker 1: says he has data to show that the press has

1512
01:15:44,120 --> 01:15:47,920
Speaker 1: turned more negative against Biden than the press was against Trump.

1513
01:15:48,040 --> 01:15:49,760
Speaker 1: What do you think about that? Does it ring true

1514
01:15:49,800 --> 01:15:52,200
Speaker 1: to you? Trump might have committed treason? What does putin

1515
01:15:52,280 --> 01:15:55,599
Speaker 1: have on Trump? The US president possibly working for the Russians?

1516
01:15:55,760 --> 01:15:58,600
Speaker 1: Is President Trump a racist? Is the Trump presidency a

1517
01:15:58,640 --> 01:16:02,880
Speaker 1: criminal presidency? Look, it's perfect. That's what he excelled at

1518
01:16:03,560 --> 01:16:06,639
Speaker 1: when I best heard him described as the media's janitor,

1519
01:16:06,880 --> 01:16:09,040
Speaker 1: as in like the clean up guy to always make

1520
01:16:09,080 --> 01:16:11,519
Speaker 1: sure and look, I mean the there was a real cry.

1521
01:16:11,600 --> 01:16:13,479
Speaker 1: It's funny if if you go on Twitter and you'll

1522
01:16:13,479 --> 01:16:16,280
Speaker 1: see the nation's press is in mourning right now. This

1523
01:16:16,439 --> 01:16:19,880
Speaker 1: is their number one defender. And I said, oh, thank you,

1524
01:16:19,960 --> 01:16:22,320
Speaker 1: Brian for standing up for the First Amendment. First of all,

1525
01:16:22,320 --> 01:16:24,720
Speaker 1: this guy never stood up for actual free press or

1526
01:16:24,800 --> 01:16:27,840
Speaker 1: free expression. It was purely as a defender of the

1527
01:16:28,000 --> 01:16:30,640
Speaker 1: establishment media and its wing. But second, I think this

1528
01:16:30,680 --> 01:16:33,240
Speaker 1: is the real tragedy of Stelter's story. Here's what people forget.

1529
01:16:33,320 --> 01:16:35,160
Speaker 1: He was actually good at his job once upon a

1530
01:16:35,200 --> 01:16:37,360
Speaker 1: time when he was working at the New York Times

1531
01:16:37,400 --> 01:16:41,240
Speaker 1: as a media reporter covering the morning shows like and Curry.

1532
01:16:41,439 --> 01:16:43,760
Speaker 1: Did you say his Morning Show book was actually great book?

1533
01:16:43,800 --> 01:16:45,759
Speaker 1: I read It's twenty thirteen. I don't know if people

1534
01:16:45,800 --> 01:16:48,080
Speaker 1: know this. The Apple TV series The Morning Show is

1535
01:16:48,120 --> 01:16:50,880
Speaker 1: based on Stelter's book. This is another thing you stand

1536
01:16:51,000 --> 01:16:53,800
Speaker 1: media all too often though, is like, okay, he would

1537
01:16:53,840 --> 01:16:56,559
Speaker 1: I trust your judgment that this was a good book

1538
01:16:56,560 --> 01:16:58,280
Speaker 1: and that you know, I certainly know he was a

1539
01:16:58,360 --> 01:17:01,360
Speaker 1: well sourced reporter, would get good scoops and do a

1540
01:17:01,360 --> 01:17:03,280
Speaker 1: good job on some of his reporting when he was

1541
01:17:03,320 --> 01:17:05,640
Speaker 1: in that lane. Is like they all want to be

1542
01:17:05,680 --> 01:17:10,280
Speaker 1: TV stars and again putting the ideology aside, this was

1543
01:17:10,320 --> 01:17:13,720
Speaker 1: not someone who's not good out for this to mean.

1544
01:17:14,000 --> 01:17:17,040
Speaker 1: The greatest crime he committed was just how he was

1545
01:17:17,280 --> 01:17:22,479
Speaker 1: completely willing to tow the CNN corporate line and be

1546
01:17:22,640 --> 01:17:25,559
Speaker 1: in play cleanup, like, do the cleanup job for them

1547
01:17:26,040 --> 01:17:29,479
Speaker 1: whenever Sucker asked him to. He was reliable, He was

1548
01:17:29,600 --> 01:17:33,800
Speaker 1: reliably there, to use a borrow pun from their name,

1549
01:17:34,200 --> 01:17:37,839
Speaker 1: reliably there, to just carry water for his own management.

1550
01:17:37,920 --> 01:17:40,519
Speaker 1: So to me, that was the greatest crime he committed. Now,

1551
01:17:40,560 --> 01:17:42,559
Speaker 1: as to what's coming next, let's put this up there.

1552
01:17:42,600 --> 01:17:46,320
Speaker 1: CNN's new boss actually hinted to the stelters, to the staff,

1553
01:17:46,479 --> 01:17:48,680
Speaker 1: there will be many more changes, and you might not

1554
01:17:48,800 --> 01:17:51,439
Speaker 1: understand it or like it all, he said on Friday morning.

1555
01:17:51,720 --> 01:17:54,320
Speaker 1: And as I actually tweeted this out this morning, Crystal,

1556
01:17:54,479 --> 01:17:57,559
Speaker 1: some new reporting also from Puck News that Jeffrey Tubin

1557
01:17:57,720 --> 01:18:01,759
Speaker 1: is the first of many pay aid contributors. His contracts

1558
01:18:02,160 --> 01:18:04,759
Speaker 1: will be not will not be renewed at the network.

1559
01:18:04,840 --> 01:18:07,360
Speaker 1: So look, is their whole strategy going to work? Probably not.

1560
01:18:07,600 --> 01:18:09,960
Speaker 1: Will I watch a bunch of people, you know, I joked.

1561
01:18:10,200 --> 01:18:12,719
Speaker 1: I joked, it's like, oh and never Trump former CIA

1562
01:18:12,840 --> 01:18:16,320
Speaker 1: recession is coming. If all these people lose their jobs,

1563
01:18:16,320 --> 01:18:18,600
Speaker 1: Am I going to cry tears for them? No? Absolutely not.

1564
01:18:19,040 --> 01:18:20,960
Speaker 1: I keep thinking about the line from the joker, only

1565
01:18:20,960 --> 01:18:24,240
Speaker 1: going to paraphrase it. You get what you deserve. Although honestly,

1566
01:18:24,320 --> 01:18:25,920
Speaker 1: I could see him being the type that would like

1567
01:18:25,960 --> 01:18:28,880
Speaker 1: bring in a bunch of never Trump CIA types and

1568
01:18:28,960 --> 01:18:31,240
Speaker 1: in the interest of like being non part so like

1569
01:18:31,280 --> 01:18:34,120
Speaker 1: these are Republicans, you know. See, I mean, I'm just

1570
01:18:34,160 --> 01:18:36,679
Speaker 1: back to the Black Bill. Yeah, there is no saving

1571
01:18:36,720 --> 01:18:38,559
Speaker 1: this whole thing. I just I just want to come

1572
01:18:38,600 --> 01:18:41,240
Speaker 1: for expectations that the changes here, even though you might

1573
01:18:41,280 --> 01:18:43,240
Speaker 1: be happy, though Brian Stelter is ount that the changes

1574
01:18:43,240 --> 01:18:45,080
Speaker 1: here are ultimately going to amount to any sort of

1575
01:18:45,160 --> 01:18:48,639
Speaker 1: anything we might views progress in terms of journalistic integrity. Yes,

1576
01:18:48,680 --> 01:18:53,840
Speaker 1: I think you're absolutely right, all right, seybody're looking at well,

1577
01:18:53,920 --> 01:18:56,200
Speaker 1: it's been nearly one hundred and eighty days since Russia

1578
01:18:56,200 --> 01:18:58,680
Speaker 1: invaded Ukraine, six full months of war the likes of

1579
01:18:58,720 --> 01:19:00,679
Speaker 1: which we have not seen on the European continent since

1580
01:19:00,680 --> 01:19:02,960
Speaker 1: World War II. In the early days of the war,

1581
01:19:03,040 --> 01:19:05,040
Speaker 1: certain things were not allowed to be debated in the

1582
01:19:05,040 --> 01:19:07,560
Speaker 1: public square in the West, such as is it a

1583
01:19:07,600 --> 01:19:10,240
Speaker 1: good idea to pull the ripcord on the global petroleum

1584
01:19:10,280 --> 01:19:13,120
Speaker 1: market for the Russian invasion of Ukraine? How long should

1585
01:19:13,160 --> 01:19:15,760
Speaker 1: the West pay high gas prices? Will our sanctions have

1586
01:19:15,840 --> 01:19:18,479
Speaker 1: the intended effect? What is our end goal is it

1587
01:19:18,520 --> 01:19:22,120
Speaker 1: in Ukraine? Is it total Ukrainian military victory? Is it

1588
01:19:22,120 --> 01:19:25,280
Speaker 1: a stalemate? If so, what kind what is our diplomatic

1589
01:19:25,400 --> 01:19:28,120
Speaker 1: end goal? Militarily. What does that even look like in

1590
01:19:28,200 --> 01:19:30,599
Speaker 1: terms of the weapons that we're shipping them month after month?

1591
01:19:30,720 --> 01:19:32,960
Speaker 1: Are we sure they're being used as intended? Are we

1592
01:19:33,000 --> 01:19:34,720
Speaker 1: sure they will stay in the right hands if they

1593
01:19:34,760 --> 01:19:36,400
Speaker 1: even make it to them at all? Do we have

1594
01:19:36,439 --> 01:19:39,120
Speaker 1: a plan in place to ensure stability, not just temporary

1595
01:19:39,320 --> 01:19:42,400
Speaker 1: military victory? Now, of course we asked all those questions

1596
01:19:42,439 --> 01:19:44,519
Speaker 1: on this show, and of course not one of them

1597
01:19:44,560 --> 01:19:47,320
Speaker 1: was ever entertained by the US Congress in general. The

1598
01:19:47,360 --> 01:19:49,679
Speaker 1: media and the political establishment smeared you as a Putin

1599
01:19:49,720 --> 01:19:52,360
Speaker 1: apologist if you asked even one of those questions, not

1600
01:19:52,439 --> 01:19:55,320
Speaker 1: that I particularly care. Now, at its core, the case

1601
01:19:55,360 --> 01:19:57,960
Speaker 1: for defending Ukraine by the West was simple. All those

1602
01:19:58,040 --> 01:20:00,000
Speaker 1: questions aside. We must stand up to Putin and US

1603
01:20:00,040 --> 01:20:02,800
Speaker 1: Ukraine so he and other autocratic countries do not feel

1604
01:20:02,800 --> 01:20:05,519
Speaker 1: emboldened to go further and threaten our NATO allies who

1605
01:20:05,600 --> 01:20:09,479
Speaker 1: either share a border with Russia or are nearby. Okay, now,

1606
01:20:09,640 --> 01:20:12,360
Speaker 1: much was made of the Transatlantic alliance, not only in

1607
01:20:12,360 --> 01:20:14,920
Speaker 1: between the US and the UK, but France, Germany and

1608
01:20:14,960 --> 01:20:17,160
Speaker 1: the rest of the continent. The pledge was made by

1609
01:20:17,160 --> 01:20:20,000
Speaker 1: this so called United West for everyone to step up

1610
01:20:20,040 --> 01:20:23,000
Speaker 1: and take action. There is just one problem. Just like

1611
01:20:23,080 --> 01:20:25,080
Speaker 1: at the core of the NATO Alliance, there has been

1612
01:20:25,080 --> 01:20:27,840
Speaker 1: a rot for decades. The same problem has now reared

1613
01:20:27,840 --> 01:20:31,200
Speaker 1: its head with respect to the Ukrainian conflict. July, for example,

1614
01:20:31,280 --> 01:20:33,759
Speaker 1: was a rough month for Ukraine and for the West policy.

1615
01:20:33,960 --> 01:20:37,520
Speaker 1: July saw record profits by Russia from oil. Ukraine definitively

1616
01:20:37,560 --> 01:20:40,000
Speaker 1: lost a major military campaign in the East, and it

1617
01:20:40,040 --> 01:20:43,160
Speaker 1: was regrouping for an offensive to retake territory. The US

1618
01:20:43,240 --> 01:20:46,200
Speaker 1: recognized US by passing and sending billions of dollars of

1619
01:20:46,200 --> 01:20:49,000
Speaker 1: military aid to Ukraine. Now you would think, then, well,

1620
01:20:49,040 --> 01:20:51,719
Speaker 1: the rest of the European country, since we're all united,

1621
01:20:51,760 --> 01:20:54,280
Speaker 1: we're all in this together, are stepping up too. That's

1622
01:20:54,280 --> 01:20:57,240
Speaker 1: actually completely wrong. In fact, new data tells us that

1623
01:20:57,320 --> 01:20:59,519
Speaker 1: not only did they not even send any of the

1624
01:20:59,520 --> 01:21:03,559
Speaker 1: pitlies support they had previously, but that Europe's six greatest

1625
01:21:03,600 --> 01:21:08,200
Speaker 1: powers and largest economies did not send one euro of

1626
01:21:08,320 --> 01:21:12,519
Speaker 1: bilateral military aid in the entire month of July. Those

1627
01:21:12,560 --> 01:21:17,080
Speaker 1: powers include the UK, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy and Poland,

1628
01:21:17,320 --> 01:21:20,080
Speaker 1: all of which have far more to lose from any

1629
01:21:20,439 --> 01:21:23,360
Speaker 1: general war in Europe than we do, and who literally

1630
01:21:23,439 --> 01:21:26,720
Speaker 1: are both closer to Russia, but have fought wars with

1631
01:21:26,960 --> 01:21:30,360
Speaker 1: them for hundreds of years prior. And as shocking as

1632
01:21:30,360 --> 01:21:33,280
Speaker 1: a zero figure is, it's even more shocking when you

1633
01:21:33,320 --> 01:21:36,519
Speaker 1: look at things in terms of absolute aid. In terms

1634
01:21:36,560 --> 01:21:39,759
Speaker 1: of overall aid, the United States to date has provided

1635
01:21:39,840 --> 01:21:43,400
Speaker 1: Ukraine with twenty five billion euros of military aid. So far,

1636
01:21:43,960 --> 01:21:48,599
Speaker 1: no other country even comes close to one fifth of that. Yes,

1637
01:21:48,640 --> 01:21:51,519
Speaker 1: you heard me correctly. The only ones who even though

1638
01:21:51,680 --> 01:21:55,439
Speaker 1: approached the one fifth figure is the United Kingdom, which

1639
01:21:55,479 --> 01:21:58,720
Speaker 1: has sent four billion euros. Of eight After that, there

1640
01:21:58,760 --> 01:22:01,400
Speaker 1: are so called EU tutions which barely counts as they're

1641
01:22:01,400 --> 01:22:04,400
Speaker 1: supposed to represent, like twenty nine different countries and Poland,

1642
01:22:04,640 --> 01:22:08,040
Speaker 1: and they have provided one point eight billion. Germany, the

1643
01:22:08,160 --> 01:22:11,679
Speaker 1: fourth largest economy on earth, a so called great ally

1644
01:22:11,760 --> 01:22:14,960
Speaker 1: of the US, which has the biggest GDP on the continent,

1645
01:22:15,240 --> 01:22:19,320
Speaker 1: has sent one point two billion. France, the seventh largest economy,

1646
01:22:19,439 --> 01:22:22,479
Speaker 1: the second largest European power, has sent point two to

1647
01:22:22,520 --> 01:22:26,200
Speaker 1: three billion. Italy has sent point one five which means

1648
01:22:26,240 --> 01:22:29,439
Speaker 1: to date the United States has provided more military a

1649
01:22:29,560 --> 01:22:33,599
Speaker 1: to Ukraine than all of the European continent combined. So

1650
01:22:33,640 --> 01:22:36,240
Speaker 1: I compose a very simple question if this is a

1651
01:22:36,320 --> 01:22:39,840
Speaker 1: war against putent aggression. Why should the United States care

1652
01:22:39,920 --> 01:22:43,000
Speaker 1: more about peace in Europe and the greatest powers on

1653
01:22:43,120 --> 01:22:47,120
Speaker 1: the European continent unless the so called European powers know

1654
01:22:47,200 --> 01:22:49,799
Speaker 1: that they don't actually have to do anything, they continue

1655
01:22:49,800 --> 01:22:52,760
Speaker 1: to subsidize their vast welfare states, and that we will

1656
01:22:52,760 --> 01:22:55,840
Speaker 1: continue to foot the bill because of our politicians, media,

1657
01:22:55,880 --> 01:22:59,360
Speaker 1: and establishment class are far dumber than theirs. Ours. What

1658
01:22:59,439 --> 01:23:02,840
Speaker 1: made things especially comical is as I was riding this

1659
01:23:02,920 --> 01:23:06,400
Speaker 1: monologue an announcement came across the wire. The Department of

1660
01:23:06,479 --> 01:23:09,280
Speaker 1: Defense has announced we will provide an additional seven hundred

1661
01:23:09,280 --> 01:23:11,639
Speaker 1: and seventy five million dollars in military aid to Ukraine

1662
01:23:11,760 --> 01:23:14,360
Speaker 1: to mark the six month anniversary of the war. Those

1663
01:23:14,400 --> 01:23:18,400
Speaker 1: include HIMAR rocket systems, artillery, ammunition, drones, and mine resistant

1664
01:23:18,400 --> 01:23:21,120
Speaker 1: troop vehicles. This seven hundred and seventy five million in

1665
01:23:21,240 --> 01:23:26,400
Speaker 1: aid outstrips entire European nations on the continent in dollar terms,

1666
01:23:26,640 --> 01:23:30,160
Speaker 1: and just another routine resupply by the United States. The

1667
01:23:30,240 --> 01:23:33,080
Speaker 1: simple fact is the US is getting ripped off to

1668
01:23:33,120 --> 01:23:36,400
Speaker 1: a historic degree by the people who are supposedly such

1669
01:23:36,400 --> 01:23:39,120
Speaker 1: great allies. They talk a big game, they appear at

1670
01:23:39,120 --> 01:23:41,920
Speaker 1: the conferences. They say it's all about them and about us.

1671
01:23:42,200 --> 01:23:44,839
Speaker 1: When the bill comes due, we are the only people

1672
01:23:44,880 --> 01:23:47,639
Speaker 1: paying it. And here's the thing, our payment may cost

1673
01:23:47,680 --> 01:23:50,599
Speaker 1: us big time in the future. A Pentagon official recently

1674
01:23:50,640 --> 01:23:54,080
Speaker 1: revealed shocking information before Congress which nobody in the press

1675
01:23:54,120 --> 01:23:56,519
Speaker 1: thought to warn the American people about. The United States

1676
01:23:56,560 --> 01:23:59,519
Speaker 1: supply of Javelin anti tank missiles is currently at a

1677
01:23:59,520 --> 01:24:02,960
Speaker 1: full reduced one third capacity because of the support for

1678
01:24:03,080 --> 01:24:06,760
Speaker 1: Ukraine and will take years to replace that stock. Our

1679
01:24:06,760 --> 01:24:09,240
Speaker 1: supply of Stinger missiles is also reduced by one fourth.

1680
01:24:09,360 --> 01:24:11,800
Speaker 1: The Stinger missiles in particular are a problem because they

1681
01:24:11,880 --> 01:24:15,639
Speaker 1: literally are not in production anymore rate. Theeon CEO says

1682
01:24:15,640 --> 01:24:17,800
Speaker 1: that if you want them back our production line, it

1683
01:24:17,840 --> 01:24:21,240
Speaker 1: will take almost eighteen months to even begin. Furthermore, while

1684
01:24:21,280 --> 01:24:23,840
Speaker 1: everyone is worried about Ukraine, we also have interests in

1685
01:24:23,880 --> 01:24:27,040
Speaker 1: Asia where Stinger missile deliveries for Taiwan that were scheduled

1686
01:24:27,120 --> 01:24:29,880
Speaker 1: had to be pushed back because of Ukraine. Now tell

1687
01:24:29,880 --> 01:24:32,920
Speaker 1: me what if China invades Taiwan tomorrow. Do you want

1688
01:24:32,920 --> 01:24:34,559
Speaker 1: to be in a position where we have to choose

1689
01:24:34,600 --> 01:24:38,360
Speaker 1: between sending them nothing and then keeping our defense readiness intact.

1690
01:24:38,760 --> 01:24:41,320
Speaker 1: Those are all questions the people in power do not

1691
01:24:41,520 --> 01:24:44,240
Speaker 1: want you to have answers to, because if you did,

1692
01:24:44,479 --> 01:24:47,439
Speaker 1: you would be outraged. The extent to which the US

1693
01:24:47,760 --> 01:24:51,280
Speaker 1: is underwriting so called peace in Europe is nowhere even

1694
01:24:51,439 --> 01:24:54,719
Speaker 1: close to the balance of fairness, even when you factor

1695
01:24:54,800 --> 01:24:58,519
Speaker 1: in our superpower status. Worse, this actually feeds the notion

1696
01:24:58,760 --> 01:25:01,680
Speaker 1: that this purely is a proxy war between the two

1697
01:25:01,760 --> 01:25:07,160
Speaker 1: great powers and undercuts any great so called Western alliance. Furthermore,

1698
01:25:07,280 --> 01:25:11,960
Speaker 1: it actually indicates how much Ukraine needs solely the United States.

1699
01:25:12,120 --> 01:25:15,000
Speaker 1: If they need us so badly, well maybe then we

1700
01:25:15,040 --> 01:25:17,160
Speaker 1: should have more say in the conflict and guide and

1701
01:25:17,160 --> 01:25:20,400
Speaker 1: pressure the government to a solution which is best for US.

1702
01:25:20,760 --> 01:25:23,840
Speaker 1: I say this by acknowledging the Ukrainian causes just but

1703
01:25:23,880 --> 01:25:25,679
Speaker 1: there are a lot of just causes on planet Earth.

1704
01:25:25,840 --> 01:25:28,880
Speaker 1: The question of geopolitics is simple, what's best for US?

1705
01:25:29,200 --> 01:25:32,200
Speaker 1: I posit it is insane to underwrite a conflict like

1706
01:25:32,240 --> 01:25:35,439
Speaker 1: this for years to come with an effective blank check,

1707
01:25:35,640 --> 01:25:38,800
Speaker 1: while letting other European powers mooch off of US for

1708
01:25:38,880 --> 01:25:41,800
Speaker 1: their physical security, and to then take a back seat

1709
01:25:41,840 --> 01:25:45,400
Speaker 1: in how the actual conflict itself goes. The further along

1710
01:25:45,479 --> 01:25:49,000
Speaker 1: this path that we stray, the more likely it becomes

1711
01:25:49,160 --> 01:25:52,439
Speaker 1: that the US expends billions of dollars in a conflict

1712
01:25:52,560 --> 01:25:55,400
Speaker 1: where our actual interests do not lie. That in the

1713
01:25:55,439 --> 01:25:58,679
Speaker 1: long run will only make us less safe, less secure

1714
01:25:58,760 --> 01:26:01,960
Speaker 1: should a real conflict arive. We did this twice in

1715
01:26:02,000 --> 01:26:04,559
Speaker 1: the last twenty two years. You would really think that

1716
01:26:04,600 --> 01:26:07,439
Speaker 1: we would learn our lesson, but we don't. We continue

1717
01:26:07,439 --> 01:26:10,920
Speaker 1: to let vague delusions about democracy and alliances cloud our judgment,

1718
01:26:11,160 --> 01:26:14,960
Speaker 1: only to eventually be smacked in the face with reality. Sadly,

1719
01:26:15,120 --> 01:26:17,200
Speaker 1: I think that that day will come, and at least

1720
01:26:17,240 --> 01:26:19,720
Speaker 1: historians will know that there were some sane people who

1721
01:26:19,760 --> 01:26:22,160
Speaker 1: were speaking out about it at the time. I mean,

1722
01:26:22,640 --> 01:26:25,840
Speaker 1: everyone says the United West united, We're united together, We're

1723
01:26:25,840 --> 01:26:28,599
Speaker 1: fighting together. And if you want to hear my reaction

1724
01:26:28,680 --> 01:26:32,360
Speaker 1: to Sager's monologue, become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints

1725
01:26:32,400 --> 01:26:37,519
Speaker 1: dot com. Crystal, what are you taking a look at? Well? Guys.

1726
01:26:37,600 --> 01:26:40,479
Speaker 1: In one of the early scenes in Netflix's new docu

1727
01:26:40,600 --> 01:26:43,840
Speaker 1: series Would Stock ninety nine, the festival's opening act, James

1728
01:26:43,840 --> 01:26:47,240
Speaker 1: Brown is refusing to take the stage. His manager screams

1729
01:26:47,240 --> 01:26:50,000
Speaker 1: at the festival organizers that Brown will not go on

1730
01:26:50,200 --> 01:26:53,439
Speaker 1: until he gets all of his cash up front. The

1731
01:26:53,479 --> 01:26:57,559
Speaker 1: festival organizers refuse, and a standoff ensues. Brown is trying

1732
01:26:57,560 --> 01:27:00,400
Speaker 1: to secure his bag and the festival organizers, of course,

1733
01:27:00,439 --> 01:27:03,200
Speaker 1: are trying to secure theirs. It ends up being a

1734
01:27:03,200 --> 01:27:06,320
Speaker 1: good enough metaphor for the entire film, which documents Woodstock

1735
01:27:06,400 --> 01:27:10,679
Speaker 1: ninety nine in all its grotesque glory. Something happened between

1736
01:27:10,680 --> 01:27:15,080
Speaker 1: the original Woodstock of nineteen sixty nine and its millennial reincarnation,

1737
01:27:15,439 --> 01:27:18,479
Speaker 1: and I think that's something says a lot about the decadence,

1738
01:27:18,600 --> 01:27:22,040
Speaker 1: venality and rot at the core of our society. Here's

1739
01:27:22,080 --> 01:27:24,320
Speaker 1: a look a little bit of the official trailer for

1740
01:27:24,439 --> 01:27:29,120
Speaker 1: train Wreck Woodstock ninety nine. Woodstock ninety nine, It was

1741
01:27:29,160 --> 01:27:32,400
Speaker 1: going to be the biggest party on the planet. But

1742
01:27:32,560 --> 01:27:40,040
Speaker 1: that's not what any of us remember it for. What

1743
01:27:40,120 --> 01:27:42,400
Speaker 1: the hell happened? What sort of setup do you have

1744
01:27:42,439 --> 01:27:45,599
Speaker 1: for accountability? How many security guards do you have on site?

1745
01:27:45,680 --> 01:27:49,839
Speaker 1: They were glossing over all of that. Make that riplep

1746
01:27:50,240 --> 01:27:53,400
Speaker 1: They're all about making money off us in work case,

1747
01:27:53,920 --> 01:27:58,160
Speaker 1: but the show was going to go on. I think

1748
01:27:58,240 --> 01:28:02,760
Speaker 1: we need to see a whole hell. When you see

1749
01:28:02,800 --> 01:28:06,000
Speaker 1: it in your own eyes, this just two times more.

1750
01:28:06,040 --> 01:28:10,840
Speaker 1: It's shocking once you become part of our herd. You

1751
01:28:11,000 --> 01:28:14,200
Speaker 1: become like animals. Here isn't you carry out of control?

1752
01:28:15,600 --> 01:28:23,559
Speaker 1: And all of these people were acting like animals. We

1753
01:28:23,640 --> 01:28:29,519
Speaker 1: got funs. We were to look at the kerosene match. Now,

1754
01:28:29,840 --> 01:28:32,559
Speaker 1: the most obvious thing to say about Woodstock ninety nine

1755
01:28:32,600 --> 01:28:34,800
Speaker 1: is that it was completely ruined by greed. It was

1756
01:28:34,840 --> 01:28:37,880
Speaker 1: like capitalism chewed up and puked down the original Woodstock

1757
01:28:38,080 --> 01:28:41,200
Speaker 1: and booked Corn and Limp Biscuit as headliners. Now nineteen

1758
01:28:41,240 --> 01:28:43,439
Speaker 1: sixty nine. Sure, the organizers hope that they would turn

1759
01:28:43,439 --> 01:28:45,880
Speaker 1: a profit, but that wasn't the only or even the

1760
01:28:45,920 --> 01:28:48,240
Speaker 1: main goal at that point. I went back and watched

1761
01:28:48,240 --> 01:28:51,080
Speaker 1: the original nineteen seventy documentary about the festival to get

1762
01:28:51,080 --> 01:28:52,840
Speaker 1: the best sense of it that I could, And at

1763
01:28:52,840 --> 01:28:55,040
Speaker 1: one point in nineteen sixty nine, the organizers are actually

1764
01:28:55,080 --> 01:28:57,240
Speaker 1: running short on time in the run up to the concert,

1765
01:28:57,280 --> 01:28:59,040
Speaker 1: and they've got to make a choice. They can either

1766
01:28:59,120 --> 01:29:02,360
Speaker 1: build out the stage to maximize performance quality, or they

1767
01:29:02,400 --> 01:29:04,880
Speaker 1: can build out the fence to ensure that everyone has

1768
01:29:04,960 --> 01:29:07,960
Speaker 1: to pay for a ticket. They pick the stage, and many,

1769
01:29:08,000 --> 01:29:10,200
Speaker 1: if not most, concertgoers end up coming in for free,

1770
01:29:10,240 --> 01:29:13,160
Speaker 1: causing the whole thing initially to be a disaster from

1771
01:29:13,200 --> 01:29:16,840
Speaker 1: a money making perspective, But without this choice, Woodstock would

1772
01:29:16,840 --> 01:29:20,040
Speaker 1: have been just another concert, not a generation defining cultural

1773
01:29:20,080 --> 01:29:23,000
Speaker 1: touchtomee now. Even though in nineteen ninety nine the main

1774
01:29:23,120 --> 01:29:26,360
Speaker 1: visionary behind the original festival was still running the show,

1775
01:29:26,800 --> 01:29:29,760
Speaker 1: whatever idealism had existed in his young self had long

1776
01:29:29,800 --> 01:29:32,680
Speaker 1: ago curdled into a cynical desire to cash in on

1777
01:29:32,800 --> 01:29:36,400
Speaker 1: his legacy. At every turn, the leadership team cut corners

1778
01:29:36,520 --> 01:29:39,960
Speaker 1: on the location, and on food, and on sanitation and

1779
01:29:40,120 --> 01:29:44,760
Speaker 1: everything else, leading to a miserable, disgusting, and dangerous experience

1780
01:29:44,800 --> 01:29:48,400
Speaker 1: for the festival goers. For example, in order to maximize

1781
01:29:48,400 --> 01:29:52,040
Speaker 1: their profits, they subcontracted out the concession rights and cheaped

1782
01:29:52,040 --> 01:29:55,880
Speaker 1: out on sanitation, so as temperatures blazed into one hundred

1783
01:29:55,920 --> 01:29:58,479
Speaker 1: degrees with no shade in sight and a bunch of

1784
01:29:58,760 --> 01:30:04,000
Speaker 1: drunken and dehydrated concertgoers desperate for water, concession stands jacked

1785
01:30:04,080 --> 01:30:07,639
Speaker 1: up the price to twelve dollars for a single bottle

1786
01:30:07,680 --> 01:30:10,640
Speaker 1: of water. In nineteen sixty nine, concert goers made the

1787
01:30:10,640 --> 01:30:13,519
Speaker 1: best of rainy weather, sliding and frolicking in the resulting mud.

1788
01:30:13,560 --> 01:30:17,120
Speaker 1: You've probably seen the pictures. In nineteen ninety nine, concertgoers

1789
01:30:17,280 --> 01:30:20,320
Speaker 1: also played in what they thought was mud, except this

1790
01:30:20,479 --> 01:30:24,799
Speaker 1: time the mud was the direct result of overflowing porta potties,

1791
01:30:25,080 --> 01:30:30,920
Speaker 1: creating literal shit rivers. The overflowing feces then contaminated the

1792
01:30:30,960 --> 01:30:34,519
Speaker 1: free water supply, causing attendees who drank and showered in

1793
01:30:34,560 --> 01:30:37,000
Speaker 1: that water to be stricken with a World War One

1794
01:30:37,160 --> 01:30:41,000
Speaker 1: era illness called trench mouth. Teens were falling out left

1795
01:30:41,000 --> 01:30:44,080
Speaker 1: and right from heat, exhaustion, trench mouth, and other injuries,

1796
01:30:44,240 --> 01:30:47,760
Speaker 1: completely overwhelming the on site paramedics. But it wasn't just

1797
01:30:47,840 --> 01:30:50,479
Speaker 1: the organizers who were lacking in that peace and love spirit.

1798
01:30:50,720 --> 01:30:53,439
Speaker 1: In nineteen sixty nine, concertgoers came to Woodstock, Yes to

1799
01:30:53,479 --> 01:30:55,759
Speaker 1: gather and enjoy the experience, but they had a shared

1800
01:30:55,760 --> 01:30:58,600
Speaker 1: set of values and beliefs. As members of the counterculture,

1801
01:30:58,800 --> 01:31:01,400
Speaker 1: they had a commitment to each other into a larger cause.

1802
01:31:01,800 --> 01:31:04,360
Speaker 1: In nineteen ninety nine, the concert callers mostly appeared to

1803
01:31:04,400 --> 01:31:07,559
Speaker 1: just one a few days of total hedonistic debauchery. Those

1804
01:31:07,600 --> 01:31:09,439
Speaker 1: who showed up with any sort of peace and love

1805
01:31:09,479 --> 01:31:11,840
Speaker 1: spirit had it immediately sucked out of them by the

1806
01:31:11,880 --> 01:31:15,000
Speaker 1: animalistic treatment that they were subjected to. Now, the sixties

1807
01:31:15,040 --> 01:31:18,639
Speaker 1: counterculture ethos of free love had turned into teen girls

1808
01:31:18,680 --> 01:31:21,280
Speaker 1: being badgered to show their tits. The whole scene was

1809
01:31:21,320 --> 01:31:23,960
Speaker 1: a kind of combination of girls gone wild meets entitled

1810
01:31:24,040 --> 01:31:26,800
Speaker 1: frat culture, and culminated with a young girl who was

1811
01:31:26,880 --> 01:31:29,639
Speaker 1: passed out being raped in the back of a stolen

1812
01:31:29,680 --> 01:31:32,879
Speaker 1: ambulance in the middle of a rave. Another girl reported

1813
01:31:32,880 --> 01:31:35,720
Speaker 1: being pulled into a mosh pit and raped. Now, this

1814
01:31:35,760 --> 01:31:38,000
Speaker 1: whole dynamic actually made me look a little differently in

1815
01:31:38,000 --> 01:31:39,880
Speaker 1: my own college and high school years, and also made

1816
01:31:39,920 --> 01:31:42,479
Speaker 1: me grateful for the best ideals of the Me Too movement,

1817
01:31:42,760 --> 01:31:45,200
Speaker 1: which was an effort on a mass scale to try

1818
01:31:45,240 --> 01:31:47,280
Speaker 1: to make it clear this type of behavior is not

1819
01:31:47,360 --> 01:31:51,000
Speaker 1: remotely acceptable or cool, to try to impose some penalty

1820
01:31:51,040 --> 01:31:53,360
Speaker 1: of shame and disgrace for those who would treat girls

1821
01:31:53,439 --> 01:31:55,680
Speaker 1: as prey. Now, those who made it to the end

1822
01:31:55,760 --> 01:31:58,640
Speaker 1: of the festival, who suffered through the shit rivers and

1823
01:31:58,680 --> 01:32:02,600
Speaker 1: dehydration and extreme temperatures and disgusting trash filled landscape and

1824
01:32:02,640 --> 01:32:05,599
Speaker 1: sexual harassment, price gouging and all the rest, they made

1825
01:32:05,600 --> 01:32:08,400
Speaker 1: it through in part because they had been promised some

1826
01:32:08,479 --> 01:32:11,479
Speaker 1: sort of big surprise at the conclusion of the festival. Now,

1827
01:32:11,560 --> 01:32:14,040
Speaker 1: rumors were flying about some major surprise act that could

1828
01:32:14,080 --> 01:32:16,880
Speaker 1: close out the experience with something positive to hold on to,

1829
01:32:17,880 --> 01:32:21,160
Speaker 1: but of course that would be expensive, so instead, the

1830
01:32:21,280 --> 01:32:24,200
Speaker 1: organizers decided they would surprise everyone with some sort of

1831
01:32:24,280 --> 01:32:28,479
Speaker 1: vigil tend gun violence, a perfectly corporate attempt to paint

1832
01:32:28,520 --> 01:32:31,400
Speaker 1: over the whole mess with some nice liberal virtue signaling

1833
01:32:31,680 --> 01:32:34,040
Speaker 1: their way of pretending that this festival was about something

1834
01:32:34,080 --> 01:32:36,760
Speaker 1: other than the cash. But as if that wasn't bad enough,

1835
01:32:37,040 --> 01:32:41,559
Speaker 1: they also worked total colossal morons, and after building up

1836
01:32:41,560 --> 01:32:45,479
Speaker 1: an explosive, rage filled atmosphere for days on end, they

1837
01:32:45,520 --> 01:32:48,920
Speaker 1: then handed one hundred thousand lit candles into the crowd

1838
01:32:49,240 --> 01:32:52,400
Speaker 1: as part of their fake virtue signal gun violence thing. Well,

1839
01:32:52,439 --> 01:32:55,599
Speaker 1: what do you think happened next? Yes, the crowd burned

1840
01:32:55,600 --> 01:32:58,639
Speaker 1: the place to the ground. Fires were everywhere, Concessions were looted,

1841
01:32:58,840 --> 01:33:02,000
Speaker 1: organizers were forced to flee the scene. Now, when it

1842
01:33:02,040 --> 01:33:04,679
Speaker 1: was all over, the place looked like a trash drown

1843
01:33:04,880 --> 01:33:10,040
Speaker 1: charred healthscape, unfit for animals, let alone for humanity. Thousands

1844
01:33:10,080 --> 01:33:13,760
Speaker 1: were sickened, untold numbers preyed upon by looters and sex offenders.

1845
01:33:13,880 --> 01:33:17,040
Speaker 1: Three people died, and after watching the documentary, I gotta

1846
01:33:17,080 --> 01:33:18,960
Speaker 1: be honest with you, it kind of feels like a miracle.

1847
01:33:19,080 --> 01:33:21,479
Speaker 1: The body count was not any higher. So how do

1848
01:33:21,560 --> 01:33:24,320
Speaker 1: I sum all of this up? Well? In nineteen sixty nine,

1849
01:33:24,320 --> 01:33:26,600
Speaker 1: the overriding spirit was a commitment to the community. In

1850
01:33:26,680 --> 01:33:29,240
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety nine, it was every man and woman for

1851
01:33:29,320 --> 01:33:32,679
Speaker 1: him or herself, using the people around you to get yours.

1852
01:33:33,000 --> 01:33:35,720
Speaker 1: Now there's a larger cultural commentary here. Of course, in

1853
01:33:35,760 --> 01:33:38,599
Speaker 1: the ensuing years between sixty nine and ninety nine, the

1854
01:33:38,640 --> 01:33:41,479
Speaker 1: revolutionary ethos and wins of the sixties were hollowed out,

1855
01:33:41,600 --> 01:33:44,760
Speaker 1: leaving only a cruel caricature of that original spirit. The

1856
01:33:44,840 --> 01:33:47,400
Speaker 1: hippie ethos itself was bottled and sold as a kind

1857
01:33:47,439 --> 01:33:50,200
Speaker 1: of a lifestyle brand and esthetic that you could purchase

1858
01:33:50,240 --> 01:33:52,640
Speaker 1: it free people, the spirit of which advertiser told you

1859
01:33:52,640 --> 01:33:55,439
Speaker 1: could embody by drinking a pepsi. The Reagan and Clinton

1860
01:33:55,439 --> 01:33:59,080
Speaker 1: neoliberals let us have some of our individualistic cultural wins,

1861
01:33:59,120 --> 01:34:02,240
Speaker 1: but everything else was destroyed. The universalist communal spirit and

1862
01:34:02,320 --> 01:34:06,080
Speaker 1: associated policy sold for scrap to the billionaire class. Unions died,

1863
01:34:06,200 --> 01:34:09,880
Speaker 1: wages slipped, greed became good. That ethos took its toll

1864
01:34:09,920 --> 01:34:12,800
Speaker 1: on creativity as well. The nineteen ninety nine headliners have

1865
01:34:12,960 --> 01:34:16,120
Speaker 1: by and large not stood the test of time. People

1866
01:34:16,200 --> 01:34:18,679
Speaker 1: still listen to the acts of the original Woodstock lineup.

1867
01:34:18,960 --> 01:34:21,519
Speaker 1: Can't imagine a whole lot of folks are dying to

1868
01:34:21,520 --> 01:34:24,040
Speaker 1: hear the live version of Pretty Fly for a White

1869
01:34:24,080 --> 01:34:26,400
Speaker 1: Guy and I Did It All for the Nookie. Now.

1870
01:34:26,439 --> 01:34:28,519
Speaker 1: The very fact that the ninety nine festival was a

1871
01:34:28,560 --> 01:34:32,439
Speaker 1: regurgitated attempt to recapture the creativity of a previous generation,

1872
01:34:33,000 --> 01:34:36,479
Speaker 1: that in and of itself says a lot about how

1873
01:34:36,560 --> 01:34:39,559
Speaker 1: much our creativity has flagged, And then as echoes in

1874
01:34:39,600 --> 01:34:41,640
Speaker 1: the way, so many of our popular films, music and

1875
01:34:41,680 --> 01:34:44,639
Speaker 1: fashion just seemed to be a rehash of previous eras

1876
01:34:44,800 --> 01:34:47,719
Speaker 1: Top Gun Anyone. Now, it turns out commitment to money

1877
01:34:47,760 --> 01:34:51,200
Speaker 1: and self above all leads to nothing but a rapacious,

1878
01:34:51,360 --> 01:34:54,680
Speaker 1: sickening wasteland, as true in nineteen ninety nine as it

1879
01:34:54,800 --> 01:34:59,640
Speaker 1: is today. And it's just very clear it's where it

1880
01:34:59,720 --> 01:35:01,920
Speaker 1: is where watching me and if you want to hear

1881
01:35:02,040 --> 01:35:05,439
Speaker 1: my reaction to Crystal's monologue, become a premium subscriber today

1882
01:35:05,520 --> 01:35:11,240
Speaker 1: at Breakingpoints dot com. Hey everybody. Unfortunately there was a

1883
01:35:11,240 --> 01:35:14,439
Speaker 1: scheduling problem, missed flights, production schedules, all that we want

1884
01:35:14,479 --> 01:35:16,160
Speaker 1: to make sure we get this show out on time,

1885
01:35:16,200 --> 01:35:18,320
Speaker 1: so we will book Adam for a later date, but

1886
01:35:18,400 --> 01:35:20,360
Speaker 1: we hope that you guys all have a great day.

1887
01:35:20,560 --> 01:35:22,280
Speaker 1: As a reminder, go ahead and buy those live show

1888
01:35:22,320 --> 01:35:24,880
Speaker 1: tickets if you can. As far as the premium subscribers,

1889
01:35:24,960 --> 01:35:26,760
Speaker 1: we love you guys so much. We've got big things,

1890
01:35:26,800 --> 01:35:29,320
Speaker 1: as I said, in the works literally designing and everything

1891
01:35:29,360 --> 01:35:31,760
Speaker 1: right now. It is only because of all of you

1892
01:35:31,880 --> 01:35:34,080
Speaker 1: we appreciate you. If you want to join us, link

1893
01:35:34,160 --> 01:35:36,400
Speaker 1: is in the description. Otherwise we'll see you all later.

1894
01:35:36,560 --> 01:35:37,120
Speaker 1: Love y'all.