1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:31,640 Speaker 2: Julia Cornet on Now Micropolicy Perspectives on the Fed on 7 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 2: our economy, Did Julia there's a dual mandate jobs inflation? 8 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 2: I'm sorry, real economic growth matters too. Are you marking 9 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 2: down your real GDP and your nominal GDP? 10 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 3: Well, we're definitely marking down our real GDP. We do 11 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 3: now expect a recession to start in the second half 12 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 3: of this year in the United States. And nominal GDP 13 00:00:57,200 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 3: that's another question, because we do expect a burst of 14 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 3: infla from these tariffs. That's one of the things that 15 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 3: one of the factors we expect we'll take the US 16 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 3: economy into recession is the hit to profits, the hit 17 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:13,039 Speaker 3: to purchasing power. Yeah, it looks like it's a difficult 18 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 3: road ahead. 19 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:17,200 Speaker 2: Could you model out a five percent and plus unemployment rate? 20 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:19,679 Speaker 2: Or someone this weekend said, can we go to six percent? 21 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:23,679 Speaker 3: Sure? Sure, I don't see I mean, there's two there's 22 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 3: two ways to look at a potential recession in the US. 23 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 3: On the one hand, the US economy has been an 24 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 3: extraordinary shape going into this. There aren't obvious imbalances in 25 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 3: the US economy. We don't have an over indebted consumer. 26 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:41,680 Speaker 3: The banking sector looks pretty healthy, so that would argue 27 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:44,960 Speaker 3: for maybe a milder recession. On the other hand, I mean, 28 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 3: we're just seeing a generational change. This is an existential 29 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 3: shift in the role of the US economy and the 30 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 3: global economy and the global world order and capital markets, 31 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 3: and that could certainly argue for a deeper recession. So 32 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 3: on average, we put pencil in an average post war recession, 33 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:06,560 Speaker 3: and that certainly gives you an unemployment rate close to 34 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 3: six percent. 35 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 4: So, Julia, I guess if you think about these tariffs here, 36 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 4: what are the upside from your perspective for this tariff policy. 37 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 3: You know, I don't see a lot of upside. I 38 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 3: don't see a coherent strategy. It is, you know, a 39 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 3: strategy of pushing our allies away rather than pulling them 40 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:34,400 Speaker 3: closer to address maybe some of the real issues we 41 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 3: have in terms of trading practices with China. So the 42 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 3: and the method of on again, off again, not knowing 43 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:48,639 Speaker 3: what the ask is in terms of these bilateral negotiations, 44 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 3: it just seems very chaotic. So in addition to the 45 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 3: actual hit from the tariffs themselves, there's just tremendous uncertainty 46 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 3: as to you know, what the policy will be if 47 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 3: you negotiate a deal, will it stick or will that 48 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:05,520 Speaker 3: be renigged upon you know a few months down the road. 49 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 3: The US has become an unreliable negotiating partner. 50 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:14,359 Speaker 4: So Julia, let's you know, we talk about this economy, 51 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:16,960 Speaker 4: we have to talk about about the consumer here. How 52 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:20,320 Speaker 4: do you view the consumer here today? How precarious a position, 53 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 4: if any, is the consumer facing right now? 54 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 3: So going into this, you know, the labor market is 55 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:28,840 Speaker 3: pretty solid, but it has cooled a lot. And what 56 00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 3: we had seen was that we'd seen a rotation away 57 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:37,119 Speaker 3: from strength amongst the lower wage consumer towards the economy 58 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 3: really being driven by kind of the wealth effects and 59 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 3: the higher end consumer. Last year. So middle consumers had 60 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 3: already gotten pretty budget conscious, pretty you know, they had 61 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 3: been hit more disproportionately by higher interest rates, so they 62 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 3: were already feeling a bit of a squeeze and hiring 63 00:03:56,560 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 3: can consumers have been doing well and certainly had really 64 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 3: strong portfolios going into this year, but now that foundation 65 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 3: has taken a bit of a hit, and we would 66 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 3: certainly affect some additional downside ahead in terms of asset valuations. 67 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 2: We welcome all of you across the nation this morning. 68 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:19,280 Speaker 2: Paul Sweeny and Tom Kane. This is Bloomberg Surveillance on YouTube. 69 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 2: Good morning, humbled by the global reach of YouTube. Subscribe 70 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:27,040 Speaker 2: to Bloomberg podcasts and of course on Android Auto Apple 71 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 2: car play as well. Good morning to Bloomberg eleven three 72 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 2: to zero in New. 73 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 5: York, Julia Cornado with us. 74 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 2: Megan Clark of Saint John's University will join us here 75 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 2: in a bed, Doctor Coronado. The tumultuous time that we're in, 76 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:47,599 Speaker 2: does a FED find a new process, a new path, 77 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 2: or do they just say we're going to get through 78 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 2: April May June out to Jackson Hall. 79 00:04:56,360 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 3: You know, I think the FED is going to approach 80 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:01,840 Speaker 3: its mandates the the way it always has. It's going 81 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:04,960 Speaker 3: to look at the state of the economy and the 82 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 3: risks to the economy. I think what we've heard is 83 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:11,719 Speaker 3: a sort of stern message from share Powell in the 84 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 3: sense that they're facing difficult trade offs, at least in 85 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:17,680 Speaker 3: the near term. They don't know. They see risks to 86 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 3: their employment mandate, they see risks to their inflation mandate. 87 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 3: They go in opposing directions in terms of the policy prescription. 88 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:28,560 Speaker 3: So they're just going to have to see which one 89 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 3: is the dominant influence. But the starting point in terms 90 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 3: of their own assessment is that we are in balance 91 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 3: in the labor market. So they're checking the box on 92 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 3: their full employment mandate right now, but they are not 93 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 3: checking the box on their inflation mandate. We are not 94 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 3: at two percent. We've gotten a lot closer. The underlying 95 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 3: dynamics look okay, but if we experience an inflationary shock 96 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:56,520 Speaker 3: on top of that, that pushes them further away from 97 00:05:56,920 --> 00:05:59,919 Speaker 3: already a gap that they're not particularly happy with. 98 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:03,480 Speaker 2: Doctor Cornetta, Thank you so much, Greatly appreciated, Julia cornetto 99 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 2: micropolicy Perspectives. 100 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 101 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:12,279 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 102 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 103 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 104 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty Paul. 105 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:24,720 Speaker 2: Sween and I begin our coverage of the death of 106 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:27,640 Speaker 2: Pope Francis, and what we're trying to do is bring 107 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 2: you informed people about his life, the present, and the 108 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 2: future that we will see for the Catholic Church and 109 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:39,919 Speaker 2: it's reach across one point four billion people worldwide. We 110 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:44,800 Speaker 2: start strong with Excellence out of Fordham University, Boston College. 111 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:49,039 Speaker 2: Meghan Clark joins US now with Saint John's at University, 112 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:55,559 Speaker 2: where she does important work on moral theology, among others. Meghan, 113 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 2: thank you so much for beginning our coverage of the 114 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:02,000 Speaker 2: death of the Pope. You wrote a while back on 115 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:05,480 Speaker 2: Thomas Aquinas and you said good is to be done 116 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 2: and pursued, and evil is to be avoided. How permanent 117 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 2: is the method, the process, the pastoral effort of Pope 118 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 2: Francis or do you look at it as a one 119 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:21,440 Speaker 2: off pope versus what the future would bring. 120 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 6: I think that Pope Francis, I don't think anyone it's 121 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 6: wise to call him a one off in terms of 122 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 6: the impact that he had on both the Roman Catholic 123 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 6: Church and the world. What Pope Francis really showed us 124 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 6: is how to take the method of Vatican two and 125 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 6: really globalize it and live it in ways that inspired 126 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 6: billions of people. 127 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:54,920 Speaker 2: Do we understand how unique he was? I've always thought 128 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:58,160 Speaker 2: from a distance from the church that we really don't 129 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 2: understand the there where he took over from Pope Benedict. 130 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 2: How unique was I believe thirteen twelve years ago. 131 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 6: We knew something was a little bit different when he 132 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 6: came out in all white and insisted that before he 133 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 6: give the audi the Square his blessing, that he asked 134 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 6: everyone to pray for him. I think that every pope 135 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 6: is a little bit unique, and they bring all of 136 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 6: their life experience and their challenges and their gifts and 137 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:38,920 Speaker 6: their graces. But there is something about Pope Francis's humility 138 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:42,680 Speaker 6: and humanity that just deeply connected with people. 139 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:46,679 Speaker 4: Megan Now, the Catholic Church, in the Holy See and 140 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:48,960 Speaker 4: the cardinals they turned their attention to electing. 141 00:08:48,679 --> 00:08:49,320 Speaker 7: A new pope. 142 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:52,640 Speaker 4: What are the pulls and pushes in that we're going 143 00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 4: to see over the coming days. 144 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 6: So it's going to take a while, and Pope Francis 145 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:04,679 Speaker 6: will have all of the papal funeral process, and a 146 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 6: whole lot of people have to get to Rome before 147 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:11,360 Speaker 6: they will begin a conclave. But really the most important 148 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:15,080 Speaker 6: thing for everyone in that room is going to be 149 00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:20,840 Speaker 6: really trying to figure out and pray where is the 150 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 6: Holy Spirit guiding them to really figure out what the 151 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:28,199 Speaker 6: church needs? And that's you know, we're here in the 152 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 6: United States, but it's a global church, and so kind 153 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:34,560 Speaker 6: of what we think of here often as kind of 154 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:37,320 Speaker 6: the big issues aren't always the big issues for the 155 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 6: cardinals coming from places like Congo or Al Salvador or 156 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 6: all across the world. 157 00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:47,960 Speaker 4: And Megan, you know, the Catholic Church, the Holy see 158 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 4: it is not unlike or not too dissimilar to a 159 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:53,200 Speaker 4: lot of countries around the world where there are profound 160 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 4: liberal elements of the church and profound conservative elements of 161 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:01,840 Speaker 4: the church. To what extent will they have to, I guess, 162 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:05,079 Speaker 4: agree on electing a next pope who was maybe the 163 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:05,600 Speaker 4: upper hand? 164 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 7: Do you think? 165 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 6: I think the realities the majority of the College of 166 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 6: Cardinals were elevated to the status of cardinal by Pope 167 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:18,240 Speaker 6: Francis at this point, and so I think that's going 168 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:22,840 Speaker 6: to be something that because he has been pope for 169 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 6: for quite time. I think the reality of how to 170 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 6: continue the level of engagement globally, not just of kind 171 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 6: of church leaders, but of the people. That happened over 172 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 6: the last two three years with the Synod, you had 173 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 6: really mobilizing and conversations starting in every small diocese across 174 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:51,360 Speaker 6: the world. And so I think there is going to 175 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 6: be attention to continuing this to be a listening church, 176 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:00,440 Speaker 6: as Pope Francis has tried to show us how to 177 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:02,839 Speaker 6: be to be a listening Meghan. 178 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 2: Clark at Saint John's with us as we continue our 179 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 2: coverage of markets challenged this morning, looking to the events 180 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:13,359 Speaker 2: in Washington as well, and also the death of Pope Francis. 181 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:17,040 Speaker 2: Meghan Clark again out of Fordham in Boston College. Just 182 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 2: with very early work, her book The Vision of Catholic 183 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:25,920 Speaker 2: Social Thought was profound in twenty fourteen, Megan, as simple 184 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 2: as I can, this is a pope that had to 185 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:31,560 Speaker 2: deal with social media. I go back through my childhood, 186 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:34,440 Speaker 2: pauled all of us in our experience. These are popes 187 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:35,720 Speaker 2: that moved its slow motion. 188 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:36,880 Speaker 5: How does a. 189 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:41,839 Speaker 2: Catholic church and your study of its theology, how does 190 00:11:41,880 --> 00:11:44,320 Speaker 2: it change in a world of social media. 191 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:51,120 Speaker 6: It has to be more responsive and more visibly present 192 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 6: in ways it didn't have to before. And I think 193 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 6: we saw that with Pope Francis's attention to the environment. 194 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:02,800 Speaker 6: He really focused our attention most on the environment, on 195 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:06,920 Speaker 6: the plight of migrants around the world, and did that. 196 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:10,080 Speaker 6: He knew how to do that by both what he said, 197 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 6: but also where he went and who he met with, 198 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:16,200 Speaker 6: and he would go to the people in places and 199 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 6: so things like his first visit was to migrants at 200 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 6: Lampadusa was something that was a pastoral choice to do, 201 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:28,199 Speaker 6: but it also was in a global media world something 202 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:29,079 Speaker 6: that was astute. 203 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 2: Okay, But his parents were Italian, he was in Argentina, 204 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 2: the first pope since the fifteenth century I believe to 205 00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 2: be outside of the Italian European orbit. You're saying that 206 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 2: it is now entrenched with his work of twelve years. 207 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 6: I think the institutional changes that Pope Francis made, as 208 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 6: well as the pastoral message of really focusing our attention 209 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 6: on the margins of society and the world and on 210 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:06,359 Speaker 6: the need to protect our common home. 211 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:08,720 Speaker 3: Are they were. 212 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:13,720 Speaker 6: They were priorities before Francis, but he moved them to 213 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 6: the center. And I think that that's that's something that's 214 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 6: going to stick around. 215 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 7: Megan, is there a front runner to be the next hope? 216 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:23,680 Speaker 4: Is there maybe a geographic part of the world that 217 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:26,120 Speaker 4: maybe needs to show leadership. 218 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:33,080 Speaker 6: I think that there's really no way. I'm a scholar 219 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:38,600 Speaker 6: and uh a theologians, so I'm not going to I'm 220 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 6: not I'm not going to play into the politics. I 221 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 6: will say that, you know, with Pope Francis, the Holy 222 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 6: Spirit certainly surprised everybody. So we will see. 223 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 2: Megan, that was beautifully answered, and that a compliance at 224 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 2: Saint John's University is in of your ability to dodge 225 00:13:57,800 --> 00:13:59,960 Speaker 2: Pole's difficult question. 226 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 5: And Megan, what to me is so interesting? 227 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 2: And thank you so much for forgetting our coverage of 228 00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:10,440 Speaker 2: this process, if you will, of the Catholic Church. We 229 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 2: all have our images, but one of them is a 230 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 2: recent movie. 231 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:15,439 Speaker 5: Did you see Conclave? 232 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 7: I did? 233 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 2: I did? 234 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 5: How often? Mark was it? Professor? 235 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 6: Well, Hollywood always takes its liberties. But the thing that 236 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 6: I will say about that movie is that I do 237 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 6: think you get a sense of the difficulty that lays 238 00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 6: before the cardinals in the coming weeks, as well as 239 00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 6: everything else aside everybody who will be in that room 240 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 6: to determine who will lead my church. It is going 241 00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 6: to be people who, in goodwill are prayerfully trying to 242 00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 6: figure out who is the best, because it's not about ideologies, 243 00:14:57,320 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 6: it's not about positions theological or political. You know, you're 244 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 6: you're electing a person and the person that Mark Sorry 245 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 6: for him, Mario Bergoglio had had the grace to lead 246 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 6: the church really powerfully and beautifully. One of the highlights 247 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:24,440 Speaker 6: most important moments of my life is getting to meet 248 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:29,600 Speaker 6: Pope Francis after working on a project in twenty twenty two. 249 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 2: And. 250 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:32,720 Speaker 3: You know, there. 251 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:38,360 Speaker 6: There is just something that was communicated by just being 252 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 6: around a holy man that yeah, they got to try 253 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 6: and figure out who has the grace and the strength. 254 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:50,920 Speaker 2: And thank you so much, we hope we can call 255 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 2: on you in the next coming days. A full bite 256 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 2: scholar out of Fordham and Boston College and now at 257 00:15:56,640 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 2: Saint John's University. It's shocking Paul hurt accomplishments in so 258 00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 2: many short years. The only equivalent I can think of 259 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 2: is Elizabeth. 260 00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 5: Economy on China. It's just overwhelming what Megan. 261 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:15,520 Speaker 2: Clark has accomplished within the academics of the Catholic shirt. 262 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:24,320 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Catch US live 263 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:27,560 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 264 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 1: Apple Karplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, 265 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 1: or watch US live on YouTube. 266 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:35,040 Speaker 5: Got to Makunda with us this morning. 267 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 2: He's at Yale University with some outstanding books out, including 268 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 2: Picking Presidents. Thrilled that he could join us today. Very 269 00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 2: busy news cycle here the Vick's thirty one point eighty 270 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:50,600 Speaker 2: two dollar in retreat. So at Yale, you can't get 271 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 2: admitted unless you read eight hundred seventy six pages of 272 00:16:55,920 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 2: Jonathan Spence. The Search for Modern China can't go to Yell. 273 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 2: I've actually read it cover to cover every word it was, 274 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:07,440 Speaker 2: you know, to write a passage in all that if 275 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 2: you know, forget about giving the Chinese leadership. Jonathan Spence 276 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:14,480 Speaker 2: is a search for modern China. What if we gave 277 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 2: him your book Picking Presidents? What do you see out 278 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 2: of Beijing? Is they look back on the presidency You've 279 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:24,000 Speaker 2: studied so well? 280 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:24,720 Speaker 5: Oh? 281 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 8: I will quote so I lived in Beijing in twenty sixteen, 282 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:30,679 Speaker 8: the first time Trump won, And I will quote a 283 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 8: senior Chinese official who said to me, if you guys 284 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 8: want to give US leadership of the world. 285 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:36,359 Speaker 7: We will take it. 286 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:40,200 Speaker 8: And that's basically the simplest answer, except this time it's 287 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:43,440 Speaker 8: that on steroids. If there is a source of American 288 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:46,400 Speaker 8: influence and power relative to China that has been weakened 289 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:48,560 Speaker 8: by that has not been wetted by this administration, I 290 00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:49,199 Speaker 8: don't know what it is. 291 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:53,280 Speaker 2: Urgent message here for surveillance World. David Gura sends it 292 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 2: a note thank you, David for listening this morning. 293 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:59,359 Speaker 5: In your three hour work week. Gura also read every 294 00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:01,959 Speaker 5: page China. 295 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 2: So in twenty sixteen you were in Beijing and those 296 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 2: red doors were shocked at what was happening. How do 297 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 2: they negotiate? I don't people say we're negotiating. I'm like, 298 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 2: after the Japanese news this weekend, really are we negotiating? 299 00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 5: Professor? 300 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,840 Speaker 8: I mean, I'm sure that they're talking, because they'll be 301 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:23,960 Speaker 8: back channel discussions at all times. But yeah, it is 302 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:26,200 Speaker 8: a cliche to quote Sansu about the Chinese. I'm not 303 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:27,240 Speaker 8: going to do that, but I'll say it is a 304 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:29,760 Speaker 8: general rule of strategy that when your enemy is making 305 00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:31,879 Speaker 8: a mistake, get out of the way, exactly, and I 306 00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 8: think the Chinese see that quite clearly. 307 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:36,160 Speaker 2: Oh, I just don't see negotiation going on, whether it's 308 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:38,280 Speaker 2: with Vietnam or Poland, I just don't get. 309 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 4: I don't know, but yeah, I guess one of the 310 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:45,080 Speaker 4: questions if you talk the administration, what we're experiencing now 311 00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 4: is short term pain for a longer term gain of 312 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 4: re ordering global economics where more manufacturing comes back to 313 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:53,399 Speaker 4: the US. 314 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 7: Is that a how do you kind of view that? 315 00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:56,640 Speaker 5: Look? 316 00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 8: So I find this astonishing that they have made a 317 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:02,600 Speaker 8: diagnosis that's not crazy, right, Like, the US probably should 318 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:04,680 Speaker 8: have a lot more manufacturing, both for economic and for 319 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:07,639 Speaker 8: national security reasons. That's something you'd find a consensus on 320 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:11,639 Speaker 8: across the political spectrum. Except every policy they've adopted is 321 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:14,600 Speaker 8: going to take us further away from that goal, not closer. Taxing, 322 00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:16,880 Speaker 8: intermediate imports. Much of the stuff that the United States 323 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:20,320 Speaker 8: imports is things that are used as components in manufacturing. 324 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:22,919 Speaker 8: This is going to cripple American manufacturing. It's not going 325 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:23,399 Speaker 8: to help it. 326 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:27,840 Speaker 7: So how do you think this plays out here? 327 00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:33,880 Speaker 4: I mean, at some point the economic pushback, whether it's inflation, 328 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,879 Speaker 4: whether it's slower economic. 329 00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:39,239 Speaker 7: Growth, that's going to become an issue for people. How 330 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 7: do you think that's going to play out. 331 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 8: It is I'm Thorston's slock from Apollo yesterday or just 332 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 8: set on emails, and he's predicting a four percent drop 333 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 8: in US GDP this year with nonlinearities that could make 334 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,200 Speaker 8: it much worse, right, because that doesn't account for, say, 335 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:54,880 Speaker 8: supply chain collapses that are worse than anything we saw 336 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:56,640 Speaker 8: in COVID, which we're already starting to see the first 337 00:19:56,680 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 8: lines up that's about the same size decrease in GDP 338 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:03,640 Speaker 8: is the two thousand and eight financial crisis with more 339 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:07,960 Speaker 8: potential on the downside than the arsen This administration is 340 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:11,040 Speaker 8: not insensitive political pressures. We just saw that back off 341 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:13,360 Speaker 8: with the tariffs, when the bond market clearly frightened even 342 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:15,520 Speaker 8: Donald Trump into saying we can't, we need to back off. 343 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 8: But this is not primarily, from what I can tell, 344 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:22,280 Speaker 8: a set of economic policies. This is a cultural reorientation 345 00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:25,159 Speaker 8: of the country, you know, a cultural revolution. Al Krugman 346 00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:26,880 Speaker 8: said this morning, which a lot of people are starting 347 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:28,959 Speaker 8: to make a comparison. I'm not sure economics are going 348 00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 8: to be a driver in the short term. 349 00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:32,719 Speaker 2: I Gotama Kundu with us here at Yale University, with 350 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,439 Speaker 2: wonderful books and the presidency. This is off your remit, 351 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 2: but I got to ask Hannah Jang writing it up 352 00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:44,359 Speaker 2: in Secondaries Investors, which is a wicked internal investment website. 353 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:47,360 Speaker 5: If you will. For like private credit, private equity, your. 354 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:51,520 Speaker 2: Yale is rumored from four sources to sell up to 355 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:56,640 Speaker 2: six billion of private equity portfolio. Harvard's been turned upside 356 00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 2: down fourteen. Oh, this was maybe Yale's out dodged a 357 00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 2: bullet so far. And I don't want you to speak 358 00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:06,800 Speaker 2: for Yale on the unleashing of private equity, but I 359 00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:09,520 Speaker 2: do want you to speak about your study of the 360 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:14,160 Speaker 2: silence of leverage that's out there. We're all walking around, Oh, 361 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 2: we're not leveraged like eighty seven or ninety eight, really 362 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:18,239 Speaker 2: are we? 363 00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,720 Speaker 8: So there's so much of the market that has become 364 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:25,399 Speaker 8: less and less transparent over time, right between private credit, 365 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:28,720 Speaker 8: sort of different things. I'm actually my greatest concern is 366 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 8: we don't know. We don't know, right, Yeah, that the 367 00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:33,399 Speaker 8: FED is going to try to make policy in the 368 00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,679 Speaker 8: dark to an extent that is not like you know, 369 00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 8: it's not new, but it's not easy. At the same 370 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:41,439 Speaker 8: time that the President is putting enormous pressure on it, 371 00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 8: and threatening to fire the chairman of the FED. That's 372 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:45,080 Speaker 8: not a great combination. 373 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 7: So where do you think we go over the next 374 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:49,960 Speaker 7: six to twelve months here? 375 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,919 Speaker 4: Is there a role for Congress to push back or 376 00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:54,640 Speaker 4: do we just kind of sit back and say, let's 377 00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:56,680 Speaker 4: see how these policies play out. 378 00:21:57,080 --> 00:22:00,359 Speaker 8: I mean, of course there's a role for Congress, sure 379 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,639 Speaker 8: that I see them taking it, partly because of jerry mandering, 380 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:06,200 Speaker 8: partly because the Senate is such a favorable terrain for 381 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,879 Speaker 8: the Republicans in this midterm that a lot of the 382 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:10,440 Speaker 8: Republican senators are going to say, hey, I'm fine, my 383 00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:13,520 Speaker 8: only challenge is from the right. That being said, if 384 00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:16,200 Speaker 8: we really take a two thousand and eight style downturn 385 00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:18,680 Speaker 8: or worse as was in the offing a couple of 386 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:21,119 Speaker 8: weeks ago, Republicans are going to be worried. They're going 387 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,080 Speaker 8: to see something that looks a lot like nineteen thirty two, 388 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:25,600 Speaker 8: right where essentially a Republican power was wiped out for 389 00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:29,320 Speaker 8: a generation. And at that point the party may respond, 390 00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:31,000 Speaker 8: it's just my fears it'll be too late. 391 00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,400 Speaker 2: There's a lot of portraits in the Oval Office right now, 392 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 2: which is the most important presidential portrait for President Trump, 393 00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:43,480 Speaker 2: is it Andrew Jackson or someone else I'm missing, so. 394 00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:45,080 Speaker 8: It used to be Andrew Jackson. I don't think he 395 00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,680 Speaker 8: put the portrait up. But he has somehow become obsessed 396 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:51,400 Speaker 8: with William McKinley, who he believes that McKinley's tariffs made 397 00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:53,320 Speaker 8: the United States more prosperous than it's ever been. He 398 00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:55,880 Speaker 8: says this over and over again. It's I genuinely think 399 00:22:55,880 --> 00:23:00,560 Speaker 8: he's like, maybe only secure policy belief is the value tariffs, 400 00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,280 Speaker 8: but just not that that McKinley's tariffs. Any economists will 401 00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,240 Speaker 8: tell you we're not a success. They were a disaster. 402 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:06,920 Speaker 5: And he renigged on him. 403 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:12,359 Speaker 2: He renigged maybe two harsh folks, but President McKinley reversed. 404 00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:16,640 Speaker 8: I believe McKinley was, however, was a more much more 405 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,680 Speaker 8: traditional Republican. He was an establishment Republican. He was backed 406 00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:22,560 Speaker 8: by the reproblem of establishment. Mark Hannah, the call Rove 407 00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:24,399 Speaker 8: of his generation, was the sort of the. 408 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:25,720 Speaker 5: Power fact to you. 409 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:28,359 Speaker 8: He was the power factor by. 410 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,040 Speaker 5: Lane and Ma and all that. 411 00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:34,080 Speaker 2: Trump is not like, yeah, I got I got one 412 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,719 Speaker 2: minute left here. But one day I woke up, folks 413 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:40,120 Speaker 2: in my ute, and I realized I had no clue 414 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:45,200 Speaker 2: about late nineteenth century America. It was unspoken. My grandparents 415 00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:46,840 Speaker 2: would talk about it. I grew up in a really 416 00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:51,000 Speaker 2: strange house, so I read the two volume Allan Nevins. Yeah, 417 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:55,440 Speaker 2: on Grover Cleveland, Alexander. I always say that nobody in 418 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:59,160 Speaker 2: the modern day gets what I'm doing anyways from Glover clear, 419 00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,920 Speaker 2: I mean it was all party politics. 420 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:02,080 Speaker 3: Then. 421 00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:06,200 Speaker 2: There's a lot of similarities between a political system now 422 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:08,080 Speaker 2: and back then, isn't there there are? 423 00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:11,520 Speaker 8: And the American political system does not function well when 424 00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:13,879 Speaker 8: it is evenly split like that is a rule of 425 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:15,960 Speaker 8: American politics that goes back right to the beginning that 426 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,040 Speaker 8: we forget all the time. What we have when we 427 00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,600 Speaker 8: have a well functioning government is a dominant party and 428 00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 8: a subordinate party, and usually that goes for a generation 429 00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:26,560 Speaker 8: or two at a time. If the downturn right now, 430 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:28,960 Speaker 8: Republicans have the power. But if this collapse, if we 431 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,040 Speaker 8: get a collapse, we. 432 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,679 Speaker 2: Could keep this a four hour conversation. I got thirty 433 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:37,200 Speaker 2: seconds wearing God's name. Are the Democrats if they took 434 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:38,359 Speaker 2: forty nine percent of the. 435 00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:42,680 Speaker 8: Vote, struggling emerging and I think coming out of their shock. 436 00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:45,520 Speaker 8: Corey Booker's twenty five hour marathon. When he did it, 437 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:46,760 Speaker 8: you know I was, we were all very. 438 00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:49,200 Speaker 5: Skeptical for twenty of your lectures. That Yeah, he got. 439 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 8: Three hundred and fifty million likes on TikTok, three hundred 440 00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:55,119 Speaker 8: and fifty million. I think we're still they are starting 441 00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,359 Speaker 8: to understand this new social media environment, and maybe some 442 00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,320 Speaker 8: players are starting to get their subtraction. 443 00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:02,160 Speaker 2: Never enough time got him, Thank you so much got 444 00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:05,040 Speaker 2: him a Kunda. Can't say enough about his efforts here 445 00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,679 Speaker 2: with the Yale School, and of course picking presidents is 446 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:09,080 Speaker 2: the book. 447 00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:13,480 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 448 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 449 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 450 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,920 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 451 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty tru Menus. 452 00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,919 Speaker 2: With us with met Life here this morning, as we 453 00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:33,000 Speaker 2: pick up the pieces with a challenging market, I'm just 454 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:34,760 Speaker 2: going to cut to the chase. You got the best 455 00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,160 Speaker 2: title of a note. I've seen trade war as hell. 456 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,479 Speaker 2: And there we were at seven pm last night watching 457 00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:44,000 Speaker 2: gold out over thirty four hundred dollar weakness bring that 458 00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:49,359 Speaker 2: back to the vanilla Barbell's sixty forty portfolio. Or are 459 00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:52,800 Speaker 2: they separate from how you would look money out three years? 460 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:54,280 Speaker 9: I mean, they're not separate. 461 00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:54,919 Speaker 5: You know. 462 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:56,520 Speaker 9: One of the things I've always looked at is the 463 00:25:56,560 --> 00:26:00,879 Speaker 9: relationship between gold and the behavior of financial assets, and 464 00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,080 Speaker 9: when people are moving towards gold, it's a sign that 465 00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:06,360 Speaker 9: they've lost faith in something. Right, We're not really sure what, 466 00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:09,560 Speaker 9: you know. Typically I'd always looked at that as a 467 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,159 Speaker 9: measure of FED credibility, but this could just be a 468 00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:16,320 Speaker 9: policy credibility story. And it's pretty clear that the policy 469 00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:19,639 Speaker 9: credibility story is beginning to weaken and that's creating problems. 470 00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:22,720 Speaker 9: And with the rollback in those tariffs we saw last week, 471 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:25,360 Speaker 9: you know, we actually moved to a recession call when 472 00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:27,639 Speaker 9: the tariffs were put in place. We waited until that 473 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,119 Speaker 9: Wednesday for them to actually be put in place because 474 00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,359 Speaker 9: we figured he could pull back before then. But you know, 475 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:35,160 Speaker 9: once he put him in place, the damage was done. 476 00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:37,160 Speaker 9: By the time two o'clock in the afternoon rolled around, 477 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:40,560 Speaker 9: they and they pulled them back. You know, Equity markets 478 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 9: have been down sharply, the wealth effect has been crippled, 479 00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:45,960 Speaker 9: and upper income consumers are the ones you have to 480 00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:48,399 Speaker 9: watch going forward now, and my guesses are going to 481 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:50,240 Speaker 9: pull back and start saving a little more for a 482 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:50,920 Speaker 9: rainy day. 483 00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:56,680 Speaker 4: How much damage does just the discussion of tariffs in 484 00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:58,160 Speaker 4: the back and forth and back and forth. 485 00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,879 Speaker 7: How much real economic damage has that done? Well, we 486 00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:05,440 Speaker 7: see that in significantly lower GDP numbers going forward. 487 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:06,000 Speaker 5: Do you think. 488 00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:09,240 Speaker 9: I think you'll see it because it hit the equity 489 00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:12,679 Speaker 9: market so hard, you know, in terms of actually you know, 490 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,320 Speaker 9: the terriffs themselves. I think you know, as long as 491 00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:18,480 Speaker 9: there is a tariff policy put in place and companies 492 00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:20,440 Speaker 9: can figure out how they have to adapt to it, 493 00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:23,800 Speaker 9: it's when it keeps changing, right, And so it's a 494 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,320 Speaker 9: matter of you know, you can't adapt to something that's 495 00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:30,199 Speaker 9: constantly changing. And if you can't adapt because something is 496 00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,560 Speaker 9: constantly changing, you're just going to wait to figure out 497 00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:33,480 Speaker 9: where to put your money. 498 00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 5: Right. 499 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:35,560 Speaker 9: So there's two reasons you wait to put your money. 500 00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 9: One is there's no time value to money, right, So 501 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:40,560 Speaker 9: zero interest rates. That's why zero interest rates are bad. 502 00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,280 Speaker 9: And now we have you can have the best idea 503 00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:45,919 Speaker 9: in the world and you put it in place, and 504 00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:49,119 Speaker 9: you put the money up to do it and then 505 00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:51,960 Speaker 9: there's a policy pronouncement that completely makes it an irrational 506 00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,359 Speaker 9: decision that you've just made and spend a lot of 507 00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:56,399 Speaker 9: money on. So the smart thing to do then is 508 00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:57,480 Speaker 9: just not to spend the money. 509 00:27:57,880 --> 00:27:59,440 Speaker 7: What's your recession call these days? 510 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:01,840 Speaker 9: So we're sixty percent that we're going to have a 511 00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:03,720 Speaker 9: recession that looks like ninety ninety one. 512 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,760 Speaker 7: So ninety ninety one that wasn't very fun. No, it 513 00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:08,600 Speaker 7: wasn't very fun. 514 00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 9: But you know, there was a shock, right, We had 515 00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:13,320 Speaker 9: a new World order shock right where we thought kind of, oh, 516 00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:14,639 Speaker 9: there's no wars that are going to be fought, and 517 00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:16,439 Speaker 9: all of a sudden there was a war, and it 518 00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:19,119 Speaker 9: was a big war, and there was a price shock 519 00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:21,119 Speaker 9: attached to it, so kind of like the tariff shock. 520 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:22,119 Speaker 5: You know. 521 00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,800 Speaker 9: The difference this time around, though, is it's not really 522 00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:28,320 Speaker 9: clear how you retreat from that. Right in ninety ninety one, 523 00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:30,119 Speaker 9: once it was clear that the Allies were going to 524 00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 9: win the war, it was very obvious what was going 525 00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:34,800 Speaker 9: to happen, and then people could move on and kind 526 00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:37,520 Speaker 9: of begin to kind of invest again. This time around, 527 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:39,440 Speaker 9: it might you know, the faith might be damaged a 528 00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:41,040 Speaker 9: little more and it might take a little longer to 529 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 9: get out. 530 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:44,360 Speaker 7: Of so a procession risk at sixty percent, where was that, 531 00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:44,920 Speaker 7: I don't know. 532 00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:48,760 Speaker 9: Three or four months ago, we were at thirty when 533 00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:52,080 Speaker 9: the initial tariff talk started. We went to forty. We 534 00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:55,080 Speaker 9: went up to seventy five when you know when we 535 00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:57,640 Speaker 9: made our recession call, and then they pulled tariffs back 536 00:28:57,640 --> 00:28:59,520 Speaker 9: and that obviously took the risk down a little bit, 537 00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:01,640 Speaker 9: but we still think the damage has been done. 538 00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:07,040 Speaker 2: In nineteen ninety, yeah, that's the year that the Red 539 00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:07,760 Speaker 2: Sox waved. 540 00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:09,880 Speaker 5: Jim Rice is right, it's like. 541 00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:11,760 Speaker 7: The worst thing ever red Lynd Jim Rice. 542 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:14,800 Speaker 2: The Red Sox in nineteen ninety set a record for 543 00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:17,920 Speaker 2: most double plays in a season. 544 00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:18,800 Speaker 7: Hitting into double plays. 545 00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:21,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, we're I mean, Mayna said he'd only come 546 00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:22,760 Speaker 2: out on Patriots States. 547 00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:22,880 Speaker 5: So we'll do. 548 00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 9: The minor leagues are tough. 549 00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:27,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, well they sent Buckner down to them, the minor 550 00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:28,680 Speaker 2: leagues in nineteen ninety. 551 00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:30,360 Speaker 5: I mean, it's difficult to. 552 00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:33,239 Speaker 2: Say the least. Okay, this is all great, but the 553 00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:37,080 Speaker 2: bottom line is, I don't get Catharsis, I don't get panic. 554 00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:41,480 Speaker 2: Everything's waiting for a policy maturity at the White House. 555 00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:44,320 Speaker 5: I don't want you to predict that. 556 00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 2: But that's one outcome, right that they go, oh, Gilda 557 00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:50,400 Speaker 2: Radner economy, Gilda Radner trade. 558 00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:53,240 Speaker 5: Wark, Oh never mind, that's out there, Drew. 559 00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:53,560 Speaker 7: Isn't it. 560 00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,280 Speaker 9: And that's the problem. Once again. You can put any 561 00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:58,800 Speaker 9: policy in place almost and people will figure out how 562 00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:00,600 Speaker 9: to adapt to it. Right. There are a lot of 563 00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:03,240 Speaker 9: smart people trying to figure these things out. They'll figure 564 00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:06,040 Speaker 9: it out, but you can't figure out something that's constantly 565 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,440 Speaker 9: moving around. It's harder to hit a moving target than 566 00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:10,720 Speaker 9: it is to hit a stationary target. And what Wall 567 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:12,120 Speaker 9: Street needs are stationary target. 568 00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:14,480 Speaker 5: Okay, so you're an insurance company. Do you buy bonds? 569 00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 5: Is that the answer? 570 00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:19,000 Speaker 9: You take a real hard look at what bonds you're 571 00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,520 Speaker 9: buying and make sure that they are all weather bonds 572 00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:26,680 Speaker 9: and bonds that can basically are unlikely to be hit 573 00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:32,160 Speaker 9: by teriff implications, unlikely to see massive credit changes to those. 574 00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:35,560 Speaker 9: But it becomes increasingly difficult because once again, you're never 575 00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:37,520 Speaker 9: sure which one's going to actually go into place and 576 00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:38,640 Speaker 9: how long it's going to last. 577 00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,000 Speaker 5: For you didn't wear your surveillance bow tie today. 578 00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,120 Speaker 9: I didn't wear my surveillance bow tie. But on my 579 00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:45,600 Speaker 9: way in here, I noticed more people in suits wearing 580 00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:48,560 Speaker 9: ties and begin to wonder what I'd like to see 581 00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:51,120 Speaker 9: as a study about whether people who wear ties to 582 00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:52,720 Speaker 9: work make better decisions. 583 00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:54,880 Speaker 5: You were legendary ubs. 584 00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:57,600 Speaker 2: You work for a guy named Maury Harris, and you 585 00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:00,280 Speaker 2: guys would do these twelve and fourteen page reports, which 586 00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:03,240 Speaker 2: we all hated because it was like ed Heim and stuff. 587 00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:03,959 Speaker 5: You had to read it. 588 00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:06,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, It's like you couldn't like read page one and 589 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:08,720 Speaker 2: you know, look smart. You had to actually read the thing, 590 00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:11,960 Speaker 2: and buried on page seven or page nine was a 591 00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:15,840 Speaker 2: maddest wisdom buried on page seven, page nine. Right now, 592 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:18,160 Speaker 2: where's your wisdom on the labor economy? 593 00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:21,160 Speaker 9: Well, I think we were having labor problems before all 594 00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:25,040 Speaker 9: the tariff noise. And the number I'm really paying the 595 00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:27,680 Speaker 9: most attention to right now is the work week, which 596 00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,000 Speaker 9: had been in kind of free fall for a long time, 597 00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:33,160 Speaker 9: and it's just at a level that's not consistent with 598 00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:36,440 Speaker 9: having all these people employed. And so you know, the 599 00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:39,880 Speaker 9: solution to that obviously becomes, you know, once a firm 600 00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,200 Speaker 9: has to figure out or make sure that they don't 601 00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:44,960 Speaker 9: miss their earnings estimates. So the more volatile equities become, 602 00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:46,880 Speaker 9: the more important it is for firms not the misser 603 00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:50,280 Speaker 9: earnings targets. And when you're worried about missing your earnings targets, 604 00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:53,080 Speaker 9: you worry about your expenses. And if you've got people 605 00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:55,480 Speaker 9: working the shortest work week they've worked since the Great 606 00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:58,560 Speaker 9: Financial Crisis, it's pretty obvious to figure out where those 607 00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:00,120 Speaker 9: expense cuts are going to come from. 608 00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,760 Speaker 7: So tie that into the consumer. How's the consumer doing 609 00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:05,640 Speaker 7: out there? Is the consumer as. 610 00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:08,120 Speaker 4: Concerned as the financial markets on my screen show over 611 00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:09,160 Speaker 4: the last three or four months. 612 00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:14,000 Speaker 9: I think the change is actually that we had lower 613 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:16,880 Speaker 9: income workers facing more and more strains, and you saw 614 00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:19,520 Speaker 9: them straining to kind of save the holidays for their families, 615 00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:22,480 Speaker 9: and we saw a big pickup in consumer credit, and 616 00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:25,160 Speaker 9: then right after that we saw a big decline or 617 00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:26,960 Speaker 9: a big increase in people saying they're not gonna be able 618 00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:29,600 Speaker 9: to make their payment minimum payment in the next three months. 619 00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:34,760 Speaker 9: I think the shock from the tariff story is going 620 00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:38,040 Speaker 9: to really impact the wealth effect because for the wealth 621 00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,760 Speaker 9: effect to work on the equity basis, it really needs 622 00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:44,200 Speaker 9: to be a sustained equity market rally, or it needs 623 00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:46,960 Speaker 9: to seem permanent, and it takes longer for that to 624 00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,720 Speaker 9: seem permanent than other wealth effects like housing, because home 625 00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,560 Speaker 9: prices don't tend to be as volatile, and so the 626 00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:55,760 Speaker 9: disruption that we saw in equities from that is going 627 00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:58,480 Speaker 9: to have long lasting effects in terms of people's willingness 628 00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:00,320 Speaker 9: to spend money. 629 00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:02,640 Speaker 7: So where do you think the FED fits in here? 630 00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:03,120 Speaker 5: Real quick? 631 00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:07,200 Speaker 9: Their job basically is to just stay out of the way. 632 00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:11,120 Speaker 9: They can't actually cut rates because the data is not there, 633 00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:12,600 Speaker 9: so they're gonna have to lag. They're gonna have to 634 00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:15,280 Speaker 9: wait for unemployment to move noticeably higher before they can 635 00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:16,960 Speaker 9: cut rates. With political cover. 636 00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:19,400 Speaker 2: Drew, Thank you so much, Tremadus with us with Matt 637 00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:24,040 Speaker 2: Lives today. 638 00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:30,440 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 639 00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,880 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 640 00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:36,719 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us 641 00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:40,640 Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal. 642 00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:42,360 Speaker 5: With our newspapers. 643 00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:46,000 Speaker 2: This morning, future is negative seventy two, A bit of lightness, 644 00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:47,920 Speaker 2: lead some a tale with the newspapers. 645 00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:48,880 Speaker 7: What do you have, Let's do it. 646 00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:51,040 Speaker 10: Let's talk about the Massa marathon. All right, so it's 647 00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:54,040 Speaker 10: getting underway right this morning. It brings in a lot 648 00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:57,640 Speaker 10: of business. Though, for like the local restaurants from Framingham 649 00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:00,800 Speaker 10: to Brookline to the Boston Stretch, so some of them 650 00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:04,280 Speaker 10: are actually opening early. So places like Eastern Standard a 651 00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:06,960 Speaker 10: kitchen and drink breakfast Bloody Mary start pouring. 652 00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:07,320 Speaker 7: At eight o'clock. 653 00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:10,399 Speaker 3: Can't be that. 654 00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:12,160 Speaker 10: That's of course not for the runners, but for the 655 00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:14,319 Speaker 10: spectators want to get there early and have that. 656 00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:16,120 Speaker 7: And then for the runners they have a lot. 657 00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,479 Speaker 10: Of deals too, because after you're finished, you need something 658 00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:21,239 Speaker 10: to eat, right, you gotta get your energy back in yes, 659 00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:24,200 Speaker 10: carbs exactly. So you can get like a free cup 660 00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:27,279 Speaker 10: of clam chowder, legal seafood. If you're a runner, you 661 00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:31,120 Speaker 10: can get a twenty guinness. But you know what after 662 00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:33,680 Speaker 10: a race, actually I did they gave you like I 663 00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:35,600 Speaker 10: think it was like bud lighter cordsely. I don't even know, 664 00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:38,000 Speaker 10: but they say having a beer after the race. 665 00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:42,360 Speaker 2: You where you have the aluminum foil around you afterwards. 666 00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:51,359 Speaker 10: I wore that proudly around. I would not. You could 667 00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:54,480 Speaker 10: have a beer after it's actually very good for you. Okay, 668 00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:57,000 Speaker 10: So we've talked about you know, there's talking about women 669 00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,279 Speaker 10: getting cosmetic anti aging procedures. 670 00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:01,600 Speaker 7: Well, interest face. You know, yes, invest in the face. 671 00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:05,040 Speaker 10: But it's not just women. It's men really who are 672 00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:08,440 Speaker 10: doing it too, So this is plastic surgeon spoke to 673 00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:13,160 Speaker 10: Business Insider. He told them some of the most popular treatments. Okay, 674 00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:18,400 Speaker 10: really are you ready for The first is actually the 675 00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:21,120 Speaker 10: link to baldness. I'm not pointing anyone answer. You all 676 00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:23,680 Speaker 10: have a beautiful out of hair here. 677 00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:24,680 Speaker 5: You can't see. 678 00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:25,759 Speaker 7: That folks exactly. 679 00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:30,880 Speaker 10: But they're getting these platelet rich plasma injectables because they 680 00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:33,239 Speaker 10: don't want the plugs anymore. So these are apparently a 681 00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:38,200 Speaker 10: little bit less invasive, less expensive. Yes, the botox, so yes, 682 00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:39,920 Speaker 10: you can get a couple of those injections. Men are 683 00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:40,719 Speaker 10: getting more of those. 684 00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:43,560 Speaker 4: But an on lift that No, no, that's not the one. 685 00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:47,040 Speaker 4: The headline is breast reduction is more common than you think. 686 00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:51,719 Speaker 10: All right, they well, you know you think about it, 687 00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:54,000 Speaker 10: like when everyone's talking about weight loss drugs. No, they're 688 00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:56,920 Speaker 10: just going for the straight on surgery can get down question. 689 00:35:57,200 --> 00:36:00,520 Speaker 2: Of course, if you do repeat bowtox doesn't at some 690 00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:01,560 Speaker 2: point not work. 691 00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:05,360 Speaker 10: No, it keeps it stimuluated. Again, Yeah, you have to 692 00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:08,239 Speaker 10: keep doing it, like every six months maybe or so. 693 00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:11,760 Speaker 5: Someone has it you can tell, right. 694 00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:13,880 Speaker 10: You can tell by the lines up here, like if 695 00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:16,959 Speaker 10: they don't look surprised, if you don't seen any lines 696 00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:21,840 Speaker 10: on the forehead, that's kind of a Telltickly, okay, quickly. 697 00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:24,879 Speaker 10: So Wall Street Journal is talking about baseball's greatest hitters, 698 00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:28,360 Speaker 10: right Babe, Ruth Lugaric, Joe Demajo, Mickey Mantle. But they're saying, 699 00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:32,160 Speaker 10: who is on the way to become the next time? Yes, 700 00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:36,720 Speaker 10: Aaron Judge six foot seven, ten season with the Trust 701 00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:41,240 Speaker 10: fun he does no blue eyes. He celebrated his thousands 702 00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:44,120 Speaker 10: MLB game by hitting his three hundred and twenty first 703 00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:47,600 Speaker 10: home run, the exact number that Ruth had in one 704 00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:51,359 Speaker 10: thousand games with the Yankees. So he's setting like all 705 00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:53,479 Speaker 10: these records. But they're saying, the only thing that may 706 00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:56,319 Speaker 10: keep him from heading that like highest echelon is kind 707 00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:59,600 Speaker 10: of his age because most of those, you know, elite 708 00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:03,000 Speaker 10: hitters were regulars by twenty one, but you know, Judge 709 00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:04,839 Speaker 10: joined the Yankees at twenty four, so he has kind 710 00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:07,480 Speaker 10: of a late start. But he's catching up, Like, sure. 711 00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:08,359 Speaker 7: Yeah, we're watching it now. 712 00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:10,719 Speaker 4: I bet they got to win a World Series with 713 00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:11,759 Speaker 4: him in his prime and. 714 00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,400 Speaker 5: He's got to show up and we're seeing through this weekend. 715 00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:18,600 Speaker 5: I think it was the second base of magnificence. 716 00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:20,080 Speaker 7: He's got a gun. You can watch a basis. 717 00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:24,799 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's really really quite good, is that it? Yes, 718 00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:27,560 Speaker 5: thank you, Lisa, Thank you so much. 719 00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:30,520 Speaker 2: On some Monday newspapers needed over. 720 00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:32,359 Speaker 5: We can greatly appreciate that. 721 00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:37,279 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 722 00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:41,160 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 723 00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:45,040 Speaker 1: weekday seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com, 724 00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:49,000 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 725 00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:52,400 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 726 00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:54,720 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal