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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites to the podcast presented by BET

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Speaker 1: three six five, part of the Action Network. I am

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Speaker 1: Shad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Today

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Speaker 1: is our week two Thursday NFL episode. This is the

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Speaker 1: episode where we get feedback from the wise guys who

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Speaker 1: listen to the show. We narrow down our bets to

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Speaker 1: say five to seven we are leaning towards. In our

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Speaker 1: new totally free Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro

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Speaker 1: Football Pick Them contest, Folks, we reached the ten thousand

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Speaker 1: entry number that Matt Mitchell dreamed of, and we did

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Speaker 1: it much much sooner than we thought we would. Thank

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Speaker 1: you for that. You can still join the contest though,

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Speaker 1: make your picks, get your chance at all our fabulous

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Speaker 1: weekly and season long cash prizes by visiting Favorites dot

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Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com. That's also where you will see the

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Speaker 1: five official picks when Simon and I lock them in

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Speaker 1: before kickoff on Sunday. We will lock them in usually

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Speaker 1: between eleven and forty five and noon on Sunday. Don't forget,

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Speaker 1: the contest will drop your two lowest scores once we

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Speaker 1: get past Thanksgiving, So if you haven't signed up. Don't worry,

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Speaker 1: you still got time. Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. You

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Speaker 1: can also track all the bets Simon and I lock

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Speaker 1: in before kickoff Sunday by following two accounts on the

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Speaker 1: award winning Action Network app. Those accounts are called the

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Speaker 1: Faves five and the Favorites Podcast. Let's Bring in My Costs,

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Speaker 1: my companion, my compadre, MYBFF, professional better Simon Hunter, et.

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Speaker 2: Oh, I am in sad? How we doing, brother?

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Speaker 1: You know what? Sunday night? We were miserable. Monday. I

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Speaker 1: was sick to my stomach, so sick to my stomach

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Speaker 1: that people felt it from the Sunday show and they

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Speaker 1: were texting me on Monday to ask me if I

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Speaker 1: was okay during the day. Felt better after the Jets win,

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Speaker 1: felt really good after our Tuesday podcast, Thursday comes around,

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Speaker 1: I'm ready to dig in. How about you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, honestly, I could talk about all sixteen games again.

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Speaker 2: I got this this week, all the movement everything. I

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Speaker 2: know we won't, but it's so much has changed and

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Speaker 2: updated just since Tuesday. A lot of what we've talked about,

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Speaker 2: the lines moved, and it is just the exciting time

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Speaker 2: of the year where you know I started those Week

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Speaker 2: one lines chats for about three four months. This week

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Speaker 2: is just fun that it's different lines, there's different angles,

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Speaker 2: and everyone's opinions have completely shifted on teams. So definitely

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Speaker 2: been a fun week for not only sharp calls, but

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Speaker 2: just talking to you know, runners and other guys in

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Speaker 2: the books, and it's just everyone's just so fired up

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Speaker 2: that football back. So yeah, I couldn't wait to get

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Speaker 2: back on here and dive in a Week two.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by

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Speaker 1: bet three sixty five. Bet three six y five doesn't

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Speaker 1: do ordinary. They believe that every sport should be epic.

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Speaker 1: Every touchdown, every game, every point, every play from the

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Speaker 1: moments that are legendary are the ones that fly under

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Speaker 1: the radar. See for yourself when you sign up today

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Speaker 1: with Code Action and you'll get three hundred and sixty

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Speaker 1: Whatever the sport, whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at

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Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older.

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Speaker 1: Only must be present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio,

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Speaker 1: or Virginia. If you or someone you know has a

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Speaker 1: gambling problem and wants help. Call one eight hundred gambler

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Speaker 1: in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia or one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms and conditions apply. Simon,

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Speaker 1: you said it like a lot of the stuff we

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Speaker 1: talked about on Sunday in the New Sunday Show. A

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Speaker 1: lot of the stuff we talked about on Tuesday in

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Speaker 1: regard to lines moving, where money was gonna come, where

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Speaker 1: wise guys were gonna be has come to fruition. I

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Speaker 1: love having the ability to react to the overreaction from

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Speaker 1: week one. I think we're seeing a lot of opportunities there.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned it. There's a ton of games we could

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Speaker 1: talk about. I think we have more games that we

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Speaker 1: still like than we normally do. Got about ten or

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Speaker 1: eleven games normally, We've got seven or eight. Week two

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Speaker 1: kickoff is on the way, Opportunities all over the board.

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Speaker 1: Let's not dilly dally. It's time for sharp calls.

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Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain range telephone range. Somebody

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Speaker 2: say it baby lunch?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, man, what do we got some?

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Speaker 2: So you're pretty quick one, I'll just run through them

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Speaker 2: right off the top. Kind of knew where the boys

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Speaker 2: were gonna go. They were gonna go in Minnesota. So

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Speaker 2: I took a lot of heat saying I would take

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Speaker 2: the Eagles no matter what. Once it dropped under seven,

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Speaker 2: I'm sticking to it. Still gonna take them. But just

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Speaker 2: because I respect these guys. Not only did they do

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Speaker 2: they like the Vikings. I saw our guys, you know,

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Speaker 2: Nick and Sean on the luck rankings. They love the

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Speaker 2: Vikings and the spot is Drankings. So Eagles got some

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Speaker 2: injuries to their secondary, got some injuries to the safety position.

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Speaker 2: Our number two corners out, our starting mintal linebackers out

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Speaker 2: are literally our play colors out of Kobe Dean. All right,

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Speaker 2: I'll lick my winter. I'll just take I'll take the

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Speaker 2: Eagles and a teaser or the Giants. Like I told you,

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Speaker 2: I'm all in on faith in this Arizona team. So

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Speaker 2: they go right there. You got a nice Wong teaser.

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Speaker 2: Just get it down to a pick. The pros love

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Speaker 2: the Vikings in the spot, So the next three I'll

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Speaker 2: run through quick. They love New England a game me

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Speaker 2: and you were going to dive into. They love Atlanta

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Speaker 2: a game we're going to dive into. They love Houston

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Speaker 2: a game we're going to dive into. So those were

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Speaker 2: the three teams that a lot of guys were in

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Speaker 2: linement with us on the big one. They hated my

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Speaker 2: pick chat, they hate my Browns pick, They like Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 2: They think we're buying too high on the Browns. Here.

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Speaker 2: I get where they're coming from. I really do hate

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Speaker 2: taking road favorites, especially on Monday Night. But I just

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Speaker 2: I just think this Browns team is undervalued by a

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Speaker 2: lot of professionals. So that was definitely when we butt

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Speaker 2: head on is another game we're going to talk about.

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Speaker 2: You know, the pros love Tennessee. So it's definitely a

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Speaker 2: week of a lot of home dogs, a lot of

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Speaker 2: professionals loving the home dogs.

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Speaker 1: Oh my god, this never fucking happens. Simon, I love Atlanta.

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Speaker 1: You don't love Atlanta. Now the otherwise, guys love Atlanta.

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Speaker 1: I love Tennessee. You're like, that's going to be a

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Speaker 1: public dog. You don't love Tennessee. But the other wise,

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Speaker 1: guys love Tennessee. But what's killing me? I hate when

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Speaker 1: you and Nick and Sean and like all of the

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Speaker 1: metrics and sort of instincts that I rely on aren't

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Speaker 1: lining up on a game and you're saying around the Eagles,

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Speaker 1: I haven't really hesitant to pull the trigger because I

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Speaker 1: just thought the vikings were so bad, like could be

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Speaker 1: institutionally bad. So it's been nervous for me. I don't

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Speaker 1: have to do about this game still, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: It just scares that that's what I'm doing. The teaser

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Speaker 2: where Kirk is, I don't even know. I think he's

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Speaker 2: I think Evan our guy said he's three and twelve

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Speaker 2: straight up on primetime games. I saw some stet that

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Speaker 2: he was two and sixteen on primetime games straight up.

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Speaker 2: So whatever the number is, he might cover this because

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Speaker 2: I know he's five and two since two thousand in

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Speaker 2: primetime games. But he just doesn't win these games. So

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Speaker 2: it feels a lot like I'm not the biggest teaser guy,

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Speaker 2: but this spot Eagles at home, I'll take them on

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Speaker 2: a teaser.

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Speaker 1: So it's funny.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: The other day we did our favorite film session video

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Speaker 1: where you and I YouTube only go check it out.

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Speaker 1: It's really fun. We break down own a play from

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Speaker 1: the previous week. Each of us choose a play and

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Speaker 1: we break it down and you chose Miles Garrett rushing

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow and after that I was so convinced that

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Speaker 1: the Browns were just an elite team offensive line, a

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Speaker 1: defensive line. I immediately bet the Browns, and within by

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Speaker 1: the afternoon, I immediately regretted it. I'm like, why would

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Speaker 1: I overreact to the I do? That was everything that

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Speaker 1: was wrong, a road favorite, less than a field goal

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Speaker 1: division game, prime time, and like overreacting to the Steelers

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Speaker 1: thinking and the Browns being amazing. It could be because

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Speaker 1: we bet both of those games and we're so off

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Speaker 1: on the Steelers and so right on the Browns.

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Speaker 2: But well, I mean, we'll talk about it here, Chad,

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Speaker 2: but this is a big week two to me. Not

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Speaker 2: only is it a big week for my model, but

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Speaker 2: it's a big tone set of for teams in their

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Speaker 2: season where Miami, if Miami really is going to win

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Speaker 2: their division right and two, is going to take that

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Speaker 2: next step and go into that where you hit you

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Speaker 2: ranked the top ten head of the season. He takes

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Speaker 2: that next step. This is a game they win. They

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Speaker 2: go into Foxborough and they win this game and they

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Speaker 2: cover that number. And it feels the same thing here

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Speaker 2: with this Browns team, Like the Browns, same old Browns

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Speaker 2: would go into this game on Monday Night. The public's

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Speaker 2: all over them, and they just completely choke and lose

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Speaker 2: this game to Pittsburgh. So there's a couple of games

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Speaker 2: here this week we're talking about they're literally tone setters

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Speaker 2: for their season. Like we know the stats. You start

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Speaker 2: two to zero, you're gonna probably make the playoffs. And

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Speaker 2: these other teams that start owing too, it's like eleven

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Speaker 2: percent chance you can make it into the playoffs. So

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Speaker 2: Week two is such a tone setter for a lot

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Speaker 2: of these teams upcoming season.

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Speaker 1: By the way, I wanted to compliment you. I watched

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Speaker 1: the Favorite Film Session video the other day and you

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Speaker 1: noticed two things in the play that I chose, which

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Speaker 1: was brock Perty's touchdown pass to Brandon I you sort

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Speaker 1: of fade into the end zone. It was a fifty

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Speaker 1: to fifty ball, and you notice two things. One, you

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Speaker 1: noticed the free runner, the running back for the Niners

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Speaker 1: was a free runner. That's where the checkdown, that's where

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Speaker 1: most quarterbacks would go, which I hadn't even seen. But

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Speaker 1: you autos also noticed the depth of the Steeler's safety

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Speaker 1: was off. Like Simon, he knows this stuff. He's watching

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Speaker 1: a lot of films. Listen, let's do one thing for

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Speaker 1: producer Tito, so he doesn't yell at us, and this

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Speaker 1: way people in the comments can yell at him. As

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Speaker 1: a reminder, you can catch every episode of The Favorites

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Speaker 1: live on YouTube. For those who are watching us on

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Speaker 1: YouTube right now, don't forget to give us a like

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Speaker 1: smash that like. Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.

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Speaker 1: We love it. It's so kind. We appreciate it. Dude.

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Speaker 1: We got so many games. We got to start narrowing

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Speaker 1: it down. We've got to get to our Foxhole bet.

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Speaker 1: We've got to get to our Survivor pick. We have

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Speaker 1: a request from an email er to do two Survivor picks,

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Speaker 1: and of course our big Balls bet of the week.

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Speaker 1: I've got a strong opinion on this right now, let's

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Speaker 1: see if we are aligned. We haven't talked about it.

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Speaker 1: Games we talked about most on Tuesday. Some we can

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Speaker 1: just quickly knock off because we might not like the

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Speaker 1: line anymore. We like Kansas City minus three at Jacksonville.

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Speaker 1: They're now three and a half in a contest play.

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Speaker 1: I feel like we might find five games with lines

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Speaker 1: that are more advantageous from a from an ev point

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Speaker 1: of view.

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Speaker 2: We might have to take the Jags chot. I mean,

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Speaker 2: if this goes up, if Kelsey gets cleared and this

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Speaker 2: is four and a half by contests, Yeah, why would

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Speaker 2: we not take the Jaguars there? Four and a half dog?

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Speaker 2: We think Mahomes will win, But what does Mahomes doing

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Speaker 2: Win's close games? And you know, watching the Jaguars offense

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Speaker 2: with Calvin Ridley, what they lose by last year in

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Speaker 2: the playoffs, I think it was seven points. We knew

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Speaker 2: they could compete. And if you put Calval Rindley in

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Speaker 2: that game against the Chiefs last year, you know, it's

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Speaker 2: a totally different game. So definitely a game I'm excited for.

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Speaker 2: But yet, if you got two and a half three

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Speaker 2: on the Chiefs, you got a great number. Clearly we

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Speaker 2: knew it was gonna shift. So yeah, no longer would

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Speaker 2: that be a player for us on the Chiefs. We

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Speaker 2: might start looking Jaguars by kickoff?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, right now, it's three and a half at bet

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Speaker 1: three six five. By the way, Vikings are now at

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Speaker 1: plus six against the Eagles at bet three six five.

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Speaker 1: So let's put a pin in Kansas City because the

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Speaker 1: other game that I think is really important that's gotten

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Speaker 1: a lot of conversation and Stucky in raybon on The

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Speaker 1: Action Network Podcast talked about this one. It's a big

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Speaker 1: game for the luck rankings. You know, we love the

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Speaker 1: luck rankings. Sean Kerner, Nick Giffen, Billy Ward. They'll put

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Speaker 1: out their list of sort of they basically clean up

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Speaker 1: the mess, right and they say, all right, these are

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Speaker 1: the teams that got luckiest. They won, but the perception

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Speaker 1: on them is high because they had random events that

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Speaker 1: helped them win more than the quality of their play.

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Speaker 1: Raiders in their luck rankings, third luckiest team in Week one,

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Speaker 1: by the way, Eagles number one. We're going to get

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Speaker 1: to the Lions and the Seahawks. Lions were number two.

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Speaker 1: So right now, Simon says, Buffalo eight and a half

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Speaker 1: was the number that we got on Tuesday. Right now,

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Speaker 1: the buff Bills are nine and a half point favorites

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Speaker 1: against the Raiders. Stucky in the Action Network Podcast with

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Speaker 1: Raybund on Thursday and the Sunday six Pack, maybe my

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Speaker 1: favorite episode of a podcast we do still likes the

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Speaker 1: Bills at nine and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I told you I made the line ten. So

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Speaker 2: anything under ten, I think you're getting good bye. In

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Speaker 2: the Bills and we're just betting on Josh Allen to

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Speaker 2: bounce back spot again another team that we think there'll

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Speaker 2: be a playoff team, Chad, we expect the Bills to

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Speaker 2: bounce back. If they blow this game, then you start

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Speaker 2: getting worried because this is a great spot for this

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Speaker 2: Bills team at home and a get right spot against

258
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Speaker 2: a Raiders team coming off a huge last drive playoff

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Speaker 2: win against a divisional arrival. So yeah, the numbers are

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Speaker 2: going to say it's good, and the situation says it's good.

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Speaker 2: So those are just one of those where I'm making

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Speaker 2: Chad forcing a favorite. This will most likely be one

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Speaker 2: of the favorites. If we get a nine and a

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Speaker 2: half in contest, I'll try to force this one in.

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Speaker 1: I don't feel like you'd be forcing it. Like Raybon

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Speaker 1: had a great stat on the podcast.

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Speaker 2: I just love a lot of dogs like you, That's

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Speaker 2: what I mean. Like, it's gonna be hard to find

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Speaker 2: a favorite to force in. This is the one we'll

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Speaker 2: probably have to. Well.

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Speaker 1: Raybon had a stat thirty seven of fifty three career

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Speaker 1: wins by Josh Allen have been by a touchdown or more. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: like when they win and we said this last year.

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Speaker 1: When they win, they blow out. When they lose, they

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Speaker 1: lose close. When they win, they win big. And there's

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Speaker 1: already people saying, well, maybe Josh Allen isn't as good

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Speaker 1: as we thought. We can do away with that. Josh

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Speaker 1: Allen is still a top to top three quarterback in

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Speaker 1: the NFL, and this is a pretty good spot. So

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Speaker 1: you and I completely aligned on the Bills as a

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Speaker 1: potential contest entry.

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Speaker 2: And another team if you're thinking about putting them in

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Speaker 2: Survivor as a favorite or seven more points. Josh Allen

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Speaker 2: is sixteen and one straight up. So if you do

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Speaker 2: want to burn your Bills play, I get it. But

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Speaker 2: to me, I still think the Giants is the play

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Speaker 2: and we'll talk at the end of the show.

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Speaker 1: I was just going to say, last night somebody was

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Speaker 1: tech to me asking me for for Survivor picks, and

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Speaker 1: I said, and you and I haven't even talked about it.

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Speaker 1: I said, I'd probably go with the Giants because I

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Speaker 1: don't want to use the Chiefs or the Bills or

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Speaker 1: anybody else that early. But I do wanna I do

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Speaker 1: wanna like make a call and like that that felt

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Speaker 1: like the right one to do.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you want to use average and bad teams. That's

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Speaker 2: that's usually my method early on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and we'll get we'll get to that. Sunday night,

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Speaker 1: we said take the Bengals. Line's going to move. The

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Speaker 1: lines moved. They're three and a half point home favorite

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Speaker 1: now against the Ravens. I don't feel the need to

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Speaker 1: put the Bengals in the contest, but I do want

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Speaker 1: to talk about at what point do we say, all right,

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Speaker 1: we just take we bet the Ravens against the Bengals

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Speaker 1: at what number?

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Speaker 2: I don't know. Obviously, if I got the four to

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Speaker 2: four and a half, i'd think more about it. But

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Speaker 2: if you're sitting on a Bengals three, you just need

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Speaker 2: to let this play out. I think that's the good

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Speaker 2: number in this game, and your bet on Joe Brow

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Speaker 2: to bounce back against a banged up Ravens team. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's it's a pretty split game. I think it's I

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Speaker 2: thought it was even more professionals versus Joe's and it

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Speaker 2: seems like, you know, there's some pros on the Baltimore

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Speaker 2: Ravens side. Yeah, I saw some stat I think Action

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Speaker 2: tweeted out eighteen and five Lamar as an underdog ats

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Speaker 2: so definitely get get why those guys that like to

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Speaker 2: play the trends will come back on the Ravens. So

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Speaker 2: I'll just take my small bed in the three and

320
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Speaker 2: let that ride. It's just not there's not much value

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Speaker 2: in this game.

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Speaker 1: No, all right, let's talk about the Titans. Like, here's

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Speaker 1: what I do. I don't get your sort of lack

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Speaker 1: of belief in this team as a three point home dog,

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Speaker 1: I feel like I'm being mocked for loving the Titans.

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Speaker 1: Mike Vrabel as a dog. Evan can back me up here,

327
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Speaker 1: but Mike Vrabel as a dog. I'm in my notes

328
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Speaker 1: something like, what is it heaven in front of me?

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Speaker 1: Twenty four to nine and one in his career when

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Speaker 1: the spread is three or higher. He's twenty four fifteen

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Speaker 1: and one overall against the spread during his career as

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Speaker 1: an underdog. I don't know why this isn't an automatic

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Speaker 1: play for us.

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Speaker 2: Probably will be now I'm I'm coming around to Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: It's just it's hard for me if this game turns

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Speaker 2: into a shootout that Tannehill can keep up with Herbert,

337
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Speaker 2: And that's what I'm worried this will turn into. Because

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Speaker 2: Tennessee has the best run one of the best run

339
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Speaker 2: defense in the football, but they have one of the

340
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Speaker 2: worst passing defenses in all football. And Derek Carr just

341
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Speaker 2: threw for three hundred yards on them last week in

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Speaker 2: his first game as a Saint. So yeah, it's a

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Speaker 2: little scary, Chad. But yeah, if we're going by what

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Speaker 2: all the pros want to do and what the book says,

345
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Speaker 2: we're supposed to take Tennessee here, I think my issue

346
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Speaker 2: is I just have I have definitely have the Chargers

347
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Speaker 2: power rated too high. That's like, that's a thing I'm

348
00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:02,639
Speaker 2: going to learn here for this game, where if they

349
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Speaker 2: don't win this game and cover it, I'm gonna knock

350
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Speaker 2: them down because I really didn't move them at all

351
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Speaker 2: from that Miami game. I just think that's just one

352
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Speaker 2: of those games where you know, they put up thirty

353
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Speaker 2: four points in a loss. It's hard for me to

354
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Speaker 2: really get move too much of the Chargers. I think

355
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Speaker 2: that gets lost in Miami's great game. It's like Fangs

356
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Speaker 2: is are great, one of the best coordinators in all football.

357
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Speaker 2: He went to Miami to fix that defense. Herbert hung

358
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Speaker 2: thirty four on them. So I'm trying not to overreact

359
00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:29,879
Speaker 2: to it. That's just the fear in this game. But

360
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Speaker 2: I think you nailed it where it's like we're going

361
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Speaker 2: by the book and you're playing the early trends. We're

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Speaker 2: supposed to take the home dog here at three, and

363
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Speaker 2: I'm hoping against the three and a half because that

364
00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:43,399
Speaker 2: I could take in contest, which we might get. But

365
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Speaker 2: if it's two and a half in contest, Chad, it's

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Speaker 2: gonna be hard for me to get convinced to take it.

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Speaker 1: Vrabel eight and four straight up and against the spread

368
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Speaker 1: as a home dog as well.

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Speaker 2: So in real life, I might just be the move

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Speaker 2: take the money one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. By the way, you know, I'm thinking about this week.

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Speaker 1: Like last week, I kind of sprayed the board and

373
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Speaker 1: I bet on so many different games. This week, I

374
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Speaker 1: haven't bet on as many games, but I'm thinking of

375
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Speaker 1: sort of putting more units, you know, going a little

376
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Speaker 1: bit bigger on the games that I like a lot,

377
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Speaker 1: or you know, money line, a little bit of like

378
00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:27,200
Speaker 1: a quarter unit on the money line for the Titans

379
00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:32,480
Speaker 1: and plus a full unit on the Titans of plus

380
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:34,360
Speaker 1: three those kinds of formulas.

381
00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:37,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can knock get So for what I do

382
00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:39,640
Speaker 2: is I go really heavy in week one, especially because

383
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:41,719
Speaker 2: I think I have good spots and I can bet

384
00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:45,000
Speaker 2: it for months ahead of time. Now next week two,

385
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:48,080
Speaker 2: Week three, Week four. I don't go too crazy because

386
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Speaker 2: I'm still trying to form my model and my info

387
00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:55,800
Speaker 2: for this upcoming season. So me personally, and when we

388
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Speaker 2: haven't talked about my two biggest bet games right now,

389
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Speaker 2: I definitely think Houston is gonna be is one of them.

390
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:03,719
Speaker 2: Like that's what I'm like, we'll talk about. I just

391
00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:06,480
Speaker 2: I just love this spot for this Houston team. Another

392
00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:08,399
Speaker 2: game we're going to dive into. It's it's going to

393
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Speaker 2: be the New England. I can't quit them. I know

394
00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:14,439
Speaker 2: they heard me last week, but it's just it's getting ridiculous.

395
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Speaker 2: Now it's up to plus three.

396
00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:18,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's no reason I bet New England plus three

397
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:20,040
Speaker 1: yesterday as soon as it hit the three.

398
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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's crazy.

399
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Speaker 1: We're gonna we're going to talk about a lot about that,

400
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:25,480
Speaker 1: and that might be a game where I might actually

401
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:30,159
Speaker 1: extend beyond my normal one unit maybe one. Here we

402
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:34,000
Speaker 1: are because because I like I I just I know

403
00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,119
Speaker 1: what I saw and I know what not just what

404
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:38,879
Speaker 1: I saw, but I know what the box score showed me.

405
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:40,760
Speaker 1: I know what the luck rankings are telling me, and

406
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Speaker 1: I want to get to that game. I want to

407
00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:46,920
Speaker 1: get to that game all right. First, Simon, you know them,

408
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411
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413
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Speaker 1: going to game Time right now. From my house here

415
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:19,680
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416
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Speaker 1: game right now six bucks. I can see the New

417
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418
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419
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420
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425
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:54,240
Speaker 1: a passionate conversation for us. Another one that I think

426
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 1: we love and I'm feeling stronger and stronger about at

427
00:21:57,080 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 1: Seattle plus five and a half at Detroit. This is like, Look,

428
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:06,480
Speaker 1: the Lions were second in the luck rankings as the

429
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:09,880
Speaker 1: luckiest team, and look I went back. I went back

430
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:14,880
Speaker 1: pretty hard in that game. And the Lions offense only

431
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:20,920
Speaker 1: scored fourteen points against a Chris Jones list Chiefs defense.

432
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Speaker 1: They had to pick six, So I know they're going

433
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,880
Speaker 1: to be at home. I know this. This this crowd

434
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:32,959
Speaker 1: is going to be raucous, but this is over reaction

435
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 1: city man.

436
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 2: And I honestly think this is a great get right

437
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:39,119
Speaker 2: spot for this Detroit offense. Like this, this should be

438
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 2: an over Both teams should put up a lot of points.

439
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 2: You're going from you know a Chiefs team that these

440
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 2: guys were open, they were dropping the passes. I can

441
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,960
Speaker 2: tell you metcalf Lockett, They're not going to be dropping passes.

442
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,360
Speaker 2: So a nice spot for Sea. How I get right?

443
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:57,879
Speaker 2: This was hyping me up. Chet. We got up to

444
00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 2: six at one point. I got this at six and

445
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:02,720
Speaker 2: then it's come down. I've seen a lot of books

446
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 2: move down to four and a half now, So definitely

447
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 2: a game where I think you read some crazy stat

448
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,680
Speaker 2: that I love just because it really catered to taking

449
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 2: the Bears, which I knew no matter what, chat was

450
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 2: gonna try to some get us on the Bears. But

451
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 2: it was what that twenty four to one.

452
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:19,919
Speaker 1: Twenty four and one team since twenty twelve, And this

453
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:23,160
Speaker 1: is an Evan Abrams No, this was in Brandon Anderson.

454
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,240
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson talked about this in the Action Network wrap

455
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 1: Up podcast that comes out late Sunday early Monday morning.

456
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:32,680
Speaker 1: Teams that are off of a double digit loss since

457
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 1: twenty twelve against teams that are not off a double

458
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 1: digit loss. So it could be a team that lost

459
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 1: by nine or a team that won anything of that category,

460
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 1: and that double digit loss team is on the road

461
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,119
Speaker 1: since twenty twelve, twenty four and one against the spread.

462
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:53,920
Speaker 1: There are two teams that fit that mold this week,

463
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks and the Chicago Bears. So we'll get

464
00:23:57,320 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 1: to the Bears. We're narrowing down our list already.

465
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:03,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, if Seahawks are four and a half, I could

466
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:05,679
Speaker 2: see us putting it in. It's just a good number.

467
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:08,159
Speaker 2: Anytime we would be down, even if it was by

468
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 2: two touchdowns, I would still think of my mind, we

469
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 2: could still backdoor this just because the lines. They clearly

470
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:15,880
Speaker 2: have gotten better at the pass rush. I just don't

471
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 2: think they have good corners. And now they're going up

472
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,400
Speaker 2: against a really high powered offense with great receivers, so

473
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 2: should should be a shootout.

474
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:25,439
Speaker 1: This is what makes the contest that we're doing a

475
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 1: little bit more challenging than contests we've done in the past,

476
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 1: because in the past the lines locked sort of Tuesday Wednesday.

477
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:33,959
Speaker 1: These lines are dynamics, so we could have made our

478
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:37,199
Speaker 1: bets on Tuesday and locked them in. But if we

479
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 1: decided we wanted to change a game because of injuries

480
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 1: or whatever, we'd have to undo all the bets and

481
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,880
Speaker 1: take whatever lines are available. These lines are dynamic right now.

482
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 1: Seeattle's a four and a half point dog at bet

483
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 1: three six five. But I'm still putting it in right.

484
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 2: Now, like it's that I still like that number for them.

485
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, right now are the three games that I think

486
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:59,640
Speaker 1: we're feeling really good about. Bill's nine and a half

487
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 1: Tennessee plus three, Seattle plus four and a half. I

488
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:05,640
Speaker 1: know you're on the fence about Seattle. I don't know

489
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 1: what your problem is there, but whatever, Falcons plus one

490
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:17,040
Speaker 1: and a half. The Millman loves it. The wise guys

491
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 1: love it. It's down to one. This was my exact

492
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 1: decision on Tuesday. Why is Atlanta a home dog against

493
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 1: Green Bay? It makes no sense to me. Think about

494
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 1: variants for a second. Okay, the Cowboys have a quarterback

495
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 1: who's starting his second game, third game, but first year

496
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:42,119
Speaker 1: as a full starter. They went against a defense that

497
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 1: was horrendous that gave Jordan Love a lot of short fields.

498
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 1: We don't know the status of Aaron Jones, we don't

499
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 1: know the status of Christian Watson. The Falcons defense is

500
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:57,919
Speaker 1: better than the Bears, especially in the secondary. Aj Terrell

501
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:01,879
Speaker 1: one of the best cornerbacks in football. And we know

502
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 1: Arthur Smith is going to do everything he can to

503
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 1: minimize mistakes by his offense, basically by keeping the ball

504
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 1: on the ground. Makes no sense to me. The Falcons

505
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 1: have ever been underdogs in this game. Yeah, Wise guys

506
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 1: agree with me, Simon.

507
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:21,960
Speaker 2: They do. They do, but you have to understand a

508
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 2: lot of them are agreeing with you. F plus two

509
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 2: plus one and a half. So I got up there

510
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:27,199
Speaker 2: and now it's been bet down a plus one. I

511
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,359
Speaker 2: think I still agree, but I was hoping it was

512
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 2: gonna get two and a half because that I would

513
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,159
Speaker 2: agree on. I'd be like, Okay, this is a no brainer.

514
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 2: But I'm telling you that motherfucker in the back, des

515
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 2: Been Ridder is not real. He's not a real quarterback.

516
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 2: Chat So I don't know what the hell to do

517
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 2: with it. Like he's driving me crazy. I try to

518
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:48,719
Speaker 2: go back to the film and watch it and convince

519
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 2: myself that, like, no mean checking back this against the Packers.

520
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 2: It's hard. It's a hard pill to swallow. Like he's

521
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:59,240
Speaker 2: so he's so bad. Whenever he can make the wrong read,

522
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 2: he makes it, remix the set the safe read. He's

523
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 2: killing me. So yeah, like again going by the book,

524
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 2: we are supposed to take him. Oh god, damn you,

525
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 2: Matt Mitch. Matt Mitch just put a stat in Desmond

526
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 2: Ridder as a starter at home twenty nine and oh

527
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 2: Ad as a pro.

528
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:16,959
Speaker 1: In a college.

529
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:22,199
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's tough where it's like all the

530
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 2: pros are telling me we got to take it. Me

531
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:28,399
Speaker 2: and Chad know we got it because it's by the book. Yeah,

532
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 2: damn it, Chad. So this is when he's a hot

533
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 2: Chad's proba gonna get a hold of me on some dames, like,

534
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 2: we got to put it in because I've been betting it.

535
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:36,639
Speaker 2: I've been I took the plus two, I took the

536
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 2: one and a half. I've teased this game. But yeah,

537
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:43,399
Speaker 2: I'm telling you that guy in the back design Rinners

538
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 2: is not a real quarterback. We got to bet it,

539
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 2: I guess. So it's it's hard where this is kind

540
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:51,440
Speaker 2: of a what we talked about, like if if Green

541
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:54,320
Speaker 2: Bay starts too, and oh, they could easily win their

542
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 2: division and be a playoff team. If Atlanta starts here too,

543
00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 2: and oh, it could be team that fights for a

544
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 2: winning this division in the playoff team. So this is

545
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 2: such a huge game. It's really tearing me. But yeah,

546
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 2: Chad's right, like, we have to take it in here,

547
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:09,879
Speaker 2: and it's just killing me inside to do it.

548
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell's at some point we're gonna have to put

549
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,720
Speaker 1: together a sizzle of all the time. Simmon says, I'm right,

550
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 1: because it's happening. It's happening so much more often, so

551
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 1: much more often. And Evan Abra have just put a

552
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:26,480
Speaker 1: great stat up in our in our chat that I'm

553
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 1: going to bring up in a little bit that is

554
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 1: applicable to a different game that I think is going

555
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:34,400
Speaker 1: to make us feel really sick to our stomachs. But yeah,

556
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 1: the Falcons are still on the list, all right, duh.

557
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:43,959
Speaker 1: Bears opened it for now down to was it two

558
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 1: and a half last night when I was doing my research.

559
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:49,920
Speaker 1: Wait at night, because I'm dedicated to this podcast. I

560
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 1: don't ever stop the Bears right now plus two and

561
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:57,320
Speaker 1: a half line's moving, Jesus, don't minus one o five

562
00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 1: at bet three six five. The Bears are the other

563
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 1: team that fit this stat that we talked about for

564
00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 1: this Seahawks is a double digit loser on the road

565
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 1: against a team that did not lose by double digits.

566
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 1: But I do want to highlight a couple of things

567
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 1: that I said on Tuesday because I think it bears

568
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 1: repeating like this this Bears team. So, in addition to

569
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 1: the Brandon Anderson stat twenty four and one teams on

570
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 1: the road in that position twenty four and one against

571
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 1: the spread since twenty twelve, the Bears offense had twenty

572
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:35,680
Speaker 1: two first downs more time of possession than the Packers.

573
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 1: Also had three turn turnovers and four sacks. Okay, so

574
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 1: this offense, well, justin Field's like clearly made massive mistakes.

575
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 1: It wasn't as bad as people think. And so meanwhile,

576
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay gave up three hundred and forty four passing

577
00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 1: yards six yards per play, not yards per past attempt

578
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 1: six yards per play. Kirk Cousins was thirty three of

579
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 1: forty four seven yards per attempt. Minnesota lost that game

580
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 1: because they had three turnovers, including Kirk in the red

581
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 1: zone at the end of the first half when they

582
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 1: could have gone up seventeen to ten. The Bucks, by

583
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 1: the way, one, two, three four, fifth luckiest team according

584
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 1: to luck rankings in week one. The only question is

585
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 1: do you still like the number at two and a half?

586
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 1: Would you still bet it? Forget about the contest? Would

587
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 1: you bet this number at two and a half?

588
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 2: Stuck?

589
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 1: You did?

590
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, you bet at two and a half. But yeah,

591
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 2: we felt great about three, and I was hoping it

592
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 2: would keep getting pushed up where the public could be like,

593
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 2: keep buying this Bucks team. But their eyes have shifted elsewhere,

594
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 2: so they're not getting as much money as I thought

595
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 2: they would be. Got. Yeah, pros are going to come

596
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 2: in on this Bears team. That's just a good number.

597
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 2: They're getting them at a low value. Like people are

598
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 2: just off this Bears team now, like just took one week.

599
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 2: We're totally off these guys after getting blown out by

600
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 2: Green Bay. But you said it, Chad, if you really

601
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 2: go through it, it was pretty pretty interesting the numbers

602
00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 2: looking at that team, they left a lot of players

603
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 2: in the field. So hopefully Claypool doesn't play in this game.

604
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 2: That guy looks like he needs to sit out and

605
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 2: just reevaluate what he wants to do in his life

606
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 2: by playing football, because he was sleepwalking through that game.

607
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 2: If you go back and watch film, he just wasn't blocking,

608
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 2: wasn't running hard on routes. Just a complete embarrassment. Yeah,

609
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 2: you'rein't gonna paid millions of dollars play a kids game.

610
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 2: And that's that's the kind of attitude he goes out

611
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 2: there and plays with. So you know, that's a big

612
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 2: deal for a team that needs or wide receivers to block.

613
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 2: The Bears like to run the ball and fields like

614
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 2: to run the ball, so you need guys who're gonna

615
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 2: be blocking on the outside. So from what I've seen,

616
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 2: they're playing on not playing him this game, which I

617
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 2: think is a big deal for this Bears team. That.

618
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 2: You know, they need to bounce back here. We already

619
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 2: talked about the staff. They start owing too. You can

620
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 2: pack it up. That's that's the Bear season pretty much.

621
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 2: So it feels like a huge game for this Bears team.

622
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 2: I like it still as a plus two two and

623
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 2: a half plus three if you can find it dog.

624
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's really interesting what's happened with Claypool. Like the

625
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 1: Bears basically gave him a first round pick to get him.

626
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 1: They thought he would be the guy that helps justin

627
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 1: fields evolve. He hasn't been close to that. I think

628
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 1: he got the benefit of the doll last year coming

629
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 1: in middle of the season. But look, he's He's was

630
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 1: a clear number three behind Darnel Mooney and DJ Moore

631
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 1: when the season began. He's basically not on the roster

632
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 1: right now.

633
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, horrible trade, horrible.

634
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 1: So, look this is getting interesting for us Simon right now, Bills, Tennessee, Seattle, Falcons,

635
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 1: Bears all still on our list. That's five and I

636
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 1: know for a fact we got four more games, three

637
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 1: of which at least two of which we really love.

638
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got too. I definitely think we're going to

639
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 2: have in out of so like The five we just

640
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 2: gave out are just all games all on embedding.

641
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 1: Me too, I've bet all of these games. I'll put

642
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 1: them all in the Action Network app. I know there's

643
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 1: one game we're going to talk about that will definitely

644
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 1: be in there. So something's getting knocked out already. Giants

645
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 1: minus five and a half at Arizona. We liked it

646
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 1: a lot when it was five. I think this is

647
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 1: going to be our survivor pick at least one of them.

648
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 1: I would still bet it at five and a half

649
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:29,239
Speaker 1: kind of a dead number, so I don't know if

650
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 1: it ends up being contest worthy.

651
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:33,000
Speaker 2: Now I'm with the public on the Giants. It just

652
00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 2: feels like a great spot to take this team. So

653
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 2: it could be tempted come Sunday if this is four

654
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 2: and a half in our contest line. But I could

655
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 2: see a game back up to five and a half

656
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 2: six by kickoff.

657
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, the next game on our list rams

658
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:56,000
Speaker 1: they've moved. The number was eight and a half. Now

659
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 1: it's down to seven and a half.

660
00:33:58,240 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 2: And one book still has an eight and a half

661
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 2: if you want to go rabbit people. Hopefully that book

662
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 2: is in your state. But it's a great number, like

663
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 2: I've seen all the numbers. Shanahan owns the Rams. He

664
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 2: doesn't lose to them. That's great, Like we're not playing

665
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 2: who's gonna win this, straight up, we're playing who's gonna

666
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:16,759
Speaker 2: cover the number. So the fact that you could get

667
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 2: eight and a half still at a couple of books,

668
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:21,480
Speaker 2: that that's a really important number. We talk all the

669
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:24,800
Speaker 2: time like people go for two now, like weird numbers

670
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 2: land a lot. Eight and a half lands more often

671
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,799
Speaker 2: than you would realize. So yeah, don't don't get just

672
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:31,239
Speaker 2: grabbed a seven and a half. Try to get that

673
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 2: eight and a half because it is such a key number.

674
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 2: But I just don't know if we'll having this in

675
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 2: the contest, just because I could see it getting down

676
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 2: to seven. That means it would be six and a

677
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 2: half come Sunday morning our contest, and that's no good

678
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:42,880
Speaker 2: to us. And we're both playing eight and a half.

679
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:47,839
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's pretty surprising that the pros did

680
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 2: come in on the Rams, Like I just thought they'd

681
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:51,400
Speaker 2: be scared off by this fort nine ers team. But

682
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 2: that's just the play here. You're taking a home divisional

683
00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 2: dog eight and a half points. There's no way, there's

684
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 2: no way, we couldn't take this number. So it sucks

685
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 2: and moves so much because we can't take a contest,

686
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:05,279
Speaker 2: which I was hoping for, and I was going to

687
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:07,440
Speaker 2: make my Big Balls Better of the Week, but we're

688
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:09,319
Speaker 2: getting We're getting a bad number year. So that's why

689
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 2: I'm not going to make it.

690
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:13,920
Speaker 1: Listen, we haven't we haven't done a Foxhole and we

691
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:15,439
Speaker 1: haven't done a Big Balls.

692
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:17,719
Speaker 2: I said both games. I said both the games we're

693
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:19,359
Speaker 2: going to do with that. But if you have something

694
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 2: else you want to do, you can, you can say it.

695
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:22,279
Speaker 2: But I definitely know what those two games are for

696
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:22,960
Speaker 2: those two.

697
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:25,840
Speaker 1: Well, I we haven't talked about what I think the

698
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 1: Big Balls bet should be and so. But but from

699
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:37,279
Speaker 1: your perspective, have we mentioned either of the games that

700
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 1: we think should be one of those? I don't think

701
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:39,480
Speaker 1: we have.

702
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, we mentioned both at the top of the show,

703
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 2: but we'll get to it.

704
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 1: No, no, no, But I mean we haven't mentioned him since

705
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:49,359
Speaker 1: we started talking about like in the body of the show. No, okay, Well,

706
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:50,920
Speaker 1: one of them that I think we might want to do,

707
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 1: we didn't mention at the top of the show. So, uh,

708
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 1: but one of them we're going to talk about right now.

709
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:59,480
Speaker 1: I think Pats plus three at home against Miami.

710
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:05,360
Speaker 2: Big all bet of the week. Okay, it's gotta be no.

711
00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 2: No one wants to take this Patriots team this. This

712
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:10,919
Speaker 2: is such a scary spot because you're really stepping into

713
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 2: it where two in this offense right meet. Really it

714
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 2: might be the real deal and we're back in the

715
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:20,920
Speaker 2: Patriots team again that we think their defense is much improved,

716
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:22,840
Speaker 2: and we saw him last week. Mac Jones looked a

717
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 2: lot better. We're gonna learn real quick how important those

718
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 2: offensive corners and defensive corniers were to the Eagles because

719
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 2: that could have just been matchups that you know, they

720
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:35,279
Speaker 2: exploited this Eagles inexperienced coaching staff, and we're not gonna

721
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:36,839
Speaker 2: get that here with Miami. Like a lot of these

722
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 2: Miami guys. You know, Fangs is a great defensive corner

723
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,760
Speaker 2: and we've seen McDaniel's offense. It's been incredible for Tua.

724
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 2: So to me, this takes some balls. Yeah, we're going

725
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:48,319
Speaker 2: against you know, the mice hyped up, pumped up team

726
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:51,920
Speaker 2: this week. Miami to a second and MVP. Right now,

727
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:54,480
Speaker 2: I'm betting on those sports books. I think it's plus

728
00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:56,839
Speaker 2: seven to fifty he might be tied with like Mahomes,

729
00:36:57,000 --> 00:37:01,839
Speaker 2: so little scary bending this team. But we're just how

730
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 2: do we not take a divisional home dog in a

731
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:06,360
Speaker 2: primetime game in week two and such a good spot

732
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:08,400
Speaker 2: where it's like, you know, two and a half, I

733
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:11,719
Speaker 2: like the Patriots. Now it's three, So it feels like

734
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 2: this is going to take some balls. Chat how many

735
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 2: people are going to join us on this party.

736
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:17,840
Speaker 1: Pros Joe's game. Sixty six percent of the bets on

737
00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:21,400
Speaker 1: the Dolphins, about sixty percent of the money on the Patriots. Reminder,

738
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:23,759
Speaker 1: when I say bets, and I check all this at

739
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:26,320
Speaker 1: the Action Network, in the Action Network app and Actionnetwork

740
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 1: dot com, it's available for free. The the When I

741
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 1: say bets, that's basically the public, the Joe's. When I

742
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 1: say money, that is the That is the professionals. And

743
00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 1: I'm stalling here. I'm hesitating because, no joke, the numbers

744
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 1: changed as I was talking. More money just came in

745
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 1: on the Patriots. I don't know if that's because we're

746
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:56,560
Speaker 1: talking about it, but no joke. It went from like

747
00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 1: sixty percent to sixty three percent. It flashed up like

748
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:03,240
Speaker 1: a little like a little ticker at like a Bloomberg terminal.

749
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 1: It just flash, and so it threw me off there

750
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:07,319
Speaker 1: for a second, so I apologize.

751
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 2: But now I'll say one of the most public books

752
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:11,800
Speaker 2: out there, they're showing eighty percent of the bets and

753
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:15,520
Speaker 2: eighty two percent of the money is on this Miami team.

754
00:38:15,640 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 2: So it makes sense to publical level them. Because we

755
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 2: talked about it. If you believe in Miami, this is a

756
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:23,759
Speaker 2: game they should cover and win. If two is that guy,

757
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:25,240
Speaker 2: and if not, they won't.

758
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 1: Yep, all right, so the paths to me are a must.

759
00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:32,879
Speaker 1: The game I was going to mention is are big

760
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 1: balls which we won't put in the contest the New

761
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:38,400
Speaker 1: York Jets.

762
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 2: That doesn't take any It doesn't take big balls, though I.

763
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 1: Think it does listening like it doesn't take it for us.

764
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 1: Of course we're going to bet the Jets.

765
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say that's like everyone's going to be

766
00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:54,360
Speaker 2: betting the Jets. Though I'd say more people will betting

767
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 2: the Jets and more people will be teasing the Cowboys.

768
00:38:56,920 --> 00:39:01,200
Speaker 2: I feel like most people won't be taking that number. Yeah,

769
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:04,359
Speaker 2: because even even as bad as Zach Wilson looked, it's

770
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 2: still that's still a top three, top four defense going

771
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 2: against McCarthy. So I get where you're coming from. But yeah,

772
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:19,279
Speaker 2: I just, I just I don't know that's fair. We

773
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 2: could end up with this in the contests. Just we

774
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 2: sit here right now. I was just hoping this would

775
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:26,120
Speaker 2: get to ten. So yeah, that's that's fair, dude.

776
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:28,640
Speaker 1: It may like I'm looking at the numbers right now

777
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 1: and fifty five percent of the bets are on the Cowboys,

778
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 1: but seventy percent of the money. And when there's that

779
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 1: kind of discrepancy, what that tells me is that the

780
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 1: public is loading up on the Cowboys in a different

781
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 1: kind of way. Normally, when it's the bets on one

782
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 1: side the money on the other side, you know, it's

783
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 1: a pro joe split. I think this could get to ten,

784
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 1: and I think you're looking at it inside out. You're

785
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 1: looking at it from a better's point of view. I'm

786
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:57,919
Speaker 1: looking at it for more of a public perception point

787
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 1: of view. Where the Jets just lost Rogers. They they

788
00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 1: won on prime time, but the Cowboys beat the Giants

789
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 1: by forty points and dominated them in prime time. So

790
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 1: from a narrative perspective, the Jets are done and the

791
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:15,840
Speaker 1: Cowboys are going to the Super Bowl. So anyone listening

792
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 1: to this who doesn't know betting as well would be like,

793
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 1: oh my god, that's big balls. You're betting on the Jets.

794
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:21,839
Speaker 1: That's what I'm thinking about.

795
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:25,839
Speaker 2: And I would also advise people to stay away from

796
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:28,759
Speaker 2: this one if you're thinking Dallas money line or taking

797
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:32,080
Speaker 2: them a survivor. This just this reeks of a dak

798
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:34,400
Speaker 2: meltdown game. And they lose this game out right.

799
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 1: Fucking reeks stinks. Here's the other game. So immediately after

800
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 1: the Favorite film session, I bet the Browns minus two

801
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 1: on the road and it's been my bet. Regret to

802
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 1: coin a phrase from Stuckey and Colin Wilson on their

803
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:55,719
Speaker 1: podcast Let Meet Just read a stat here teams who

804
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 1: opens the underdog and closes the favorite forty four eighty

805
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:04,200
Speaker 1: two against the spread since twenty eighteen, by the way,

806
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:04,920
Speaker 1: breaking news.

807
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:08,279
Speaker 2: Line change.

808
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:10,959
Speaker 1: Remember the old days when we had the line change

809
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:14,680
Speaker 1: where the line mood while we were talking Atlanta while

810
00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 1: we were talking flipped from one and a half to

811
00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:20,439
Speaker 1: minus one during the show. So here's what I think.

812
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:24,239
Speaker 1: Between the Patriots getting more money while we're talking in

813
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:29,080
Speaker 1: Atlanta moving while we're talking, we are market makers right now, Simon.

814
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:30,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, we move numbers.

815
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 1: Ched, we move numbers, and Cleveland open as a one

816
00:41:33,160 --> 00:41:33,840
Speaker 1: point underdog.

817
00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:37,279
Speaker 2: So yeah, not good. So that's when we'll take out.

818
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:39,360
Speaker 2: I've already bet it, like Chad, so I'm gonna ride it.

819
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:41,920
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna buy in my position, but we're going

820
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 2: against trends going we're doing something we hate to do,

821
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:47,480
Speaker 2: which is taking favorites on the road in primetime games

822
00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 2: after a big win. So I'm going to trust in

823
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 2: our future position in my model that Cleveland's better than

824
00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:57,319
Speaker 2: people are giving them credit for, and tying my boat

825
00:41:57,360 --> 00:42:00,520
Speaker 2: to Watson and riding it out. But I'll make Chat

826
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:02,239
Speaker 2: put this in the contest. We'll leave this one out.

827
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:04,799
Speaker 1: We screwed that one up. We screwed the perch we made,

828
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:06,600
Speaker 1: and we made a wrong decision.

829
00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:07,799
Speaker 2: I don't know we got I got a good number.

830
00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:10,520
Speaker 2: I got them at minus one. Now it's minus two

831
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:11,000
Speaker 2: and a half.

832
00:42:11,040 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 1: So oh that's pretty good. I got him at two,

833
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 1: and I don't bet him that much longer after you did,

834
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 1: so you probably moved it. Fucker. Uh. Can I make

835
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:24,440
Speaker 1: a suggestion, I would say, let's make Jets big balls,

836
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:27,160
Speaker 1: and let's make Patriots foxhole.

837
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 2: All right, we didn't talk about the game. I want

838
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 2: to pitch though, all right, Oh go ahead, Houston. Oh

839
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:38,200
Speaker 2: my god, that's right. We didn't talk Houston. Okay, to

840
00:42:38,239 --> 00:42:39,800
Speaker 2: me that that was gonna be a foxhole bet you

841
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:41,239
Speaker 2: just because it's it would just be us on the

842
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 2: pros like, Okay, Anthony Richardson's list.

843
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 1: I loved it on Tuesday. We talked about it on Tuesday.

844
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:49,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, it does suck that it's moved from one and

845
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:53,879
Speaker 2: a half, but it was one, so you know, I'm

846
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:55,720
Speaker 2: hoping in contests we still get one and a half,

847
00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:57,920
Speaker 2: but we'll see when it closes. But I just I

848
00:42:57,960 --> 00:43:00,879
Speaker 2: love this spot for Houston, like that that Golds team

849
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 2: played incredibly well against the Jaguars, and Anthony Richardson is

850
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:08,319
Speaker 2: just getting loved by everyone in the ambling community and

851
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:12,799
Speaker 2: the fantasy community. So I look at this matchup and

852
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:15,400
Speaker 2: I think I'm getting a home dog in a divisional

853
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:18,880
Speaker 2: game with two rookie quarterbacks and two rookie head coaches.

854
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:21,799
Speaker 2: We're always going to go towards the home team and

855
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:23,800
Speaker 2: the fact that you're getting at a plus number. I

856
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 2: told the people on Tuesday show, this was a great

857
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:28,279
Speaker 2: Wong teaser. That's what's so annoying They moving it off

858
00:43:28,280 --> 00:43:29,719
Speaker 2: the one and a half, so they moved it down

859
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:32,200
Speaker 2: to plus one. I think I'll keep dropping. Like it

860
00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 2: just feels like the Pros are going to keep it

861
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:37,040
Speaker 2: in this number. So wouldn't be shocked to see Houston

862
00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:41,719
Speaker 2: closes the favorite come Sunday. But yeah, this is the Jets, Dad,

863
00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:43,400
Speaker 2: that feels fine if you want to make this or

864
00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:46,160
Speaker 2: the Jets are foxhole because I like them both, Like

865
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 2: I really, I really do like them both. I think

866
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:49,400
Speaker 2: you're getting good value on both numbers.

867
00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:52,640
Speaker 1: Well, I would say, all right, so you want to

868
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:54,719
Speaker 1: keep Patriots's big balls?

869
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:57,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, because of all the games, that scares me the most.

870
00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:00,479
Speaker 1: All right, isn't it funny? I'm so I'm not afraid

871
00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:03,360
Speaker 1: of that game. I feel like this is such a good.

872
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 2: Spot for to It looked really good on tape.

873
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:11,719
Speaker 1: He looked really good against a poorly coached team.

874
00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:14,279
Speaker 2: It's true, it's true, but a lot of.

875
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:16,560
Speaker 1: Stuff you're not a poorly coached team.

876
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 2: A lot of stuff he's doing is like this guy

877
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:23,800
Speaker 2: has crazy confidence. Like he was moving up, stepping in

878
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 2: the pocket, throwing downfield off one foot, hitting guys in stride,

879
00:44:27,600 --> 00:44:30,319
Speaker 2: which is like that's Aaron Rodgers stuff, Like, there's just

880
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:32,719
Speaker 2: not that many quarterbacks could do that. That's the fear

881
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 2: right now is that he's hit that level for me.

882
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:37,480
Speaker 2: So that's why it's like, I feel like you're so Nonchalanta,

883
00:44:37,520 --> 00:44:40,240
Speaker 2: but where me, I'm putting so much money on the Patriots.

884
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:42,480
Speaker 2: It's literally every time I'm putting another grand on it,

885
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:44,239
Speaker 2: it's like someone stabs me in the stomach. It just

886
00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 2: hurts where it's like, oh God, I gotta do this,

887
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:49,000
Speaker 2: but it's just painful every time. So that's why it

888
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:51,719
Speaker 2: just feels like big balls where the public is going

889
00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:54,880
Speaker 2: to especially if they're chasing. If the public gets slaughtered

890
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:57,480
Speaker 2: on Sunday, this could get to three and a half

891
00:44:57,480 --> 00:44:59,319
Speaker 2: because they are going to come in so heavy on

892
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 2: this Miami team. So I really do hope you get

893
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:03,680
Speaker 2: three and a half in contest, but I feel like

894
00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:06,239
Speaker 2: they're tough on these lines, so I feel like they're

895
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:07,200
Speaker 2: going to give us two and a half, but I'm

896
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:08,360
Speaker 2: hoping we get three and a half.

897
00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:11,880
Speaker 1: All right, Well, listen, in honor of sort of the

898
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:15,200
Speaker 1: tremendous amount of bank you've put on this game, we

899
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 1: will make the Patriots plus three our big balls bet

900
00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:24,560
Speaker 1: of the week, even though I couldn't be more confident.

901
00:45:24,600 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 1: And I don't mean to mush you, but this just

902
00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:30,800
Speaker 1: doesn't it doesn't feel that scary to me. I would say, foxhole,

903
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 1: Let's go Houston.

904
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:36,920
Speaker 2: Let's clog down into the foxhole.

905
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:42,480
Speaker 1: Anyone who just looked at final scores thought Houston was

906
00:45:42,560 --> 00:45:44,800
Speaker 1: terrible where you know, we talked about this on Tuesday.

907
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:48,399
Speaker 1: I loved their defense. I was really impressed. I feel

908
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:51,319
Speaker 1: like Indy had the right spot against the Jags, who

909
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:53,600
Speaker 1: gave them short fields a bunch of times by going

910
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:58,120
Speaker 1: forward on short fourth downs, you know, practically in cults territory.

911
00:45:58,200 --> 00:46:04,040
Speaker 1: So love Houston. Here the last game. I do want

912
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:07,040
Speaker 1: to say for the Browns. You know, we've talked about

913
00:46:07,160 --> 00:46:13,280
Speaker 1: the contest, and the contest is the tiebreaker is really important, okay,

914
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:16,759
Speaker 1: and if you want to cash. Last week we had

915
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:21,360
Speaker 1: a ten way tie because folks nailed the tiebreaker. So

916
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:25,040
Speaker 1: this week we commissioned predictive analyst Billy Ward, one of

917
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:27,720
Speaker 1: the creators of the Luck Rankings, to write an article

918
00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 1: on the tie breaker topic every week starting this week.

919
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:39,400
Speaker 1: This week the tiebreaker is longest Pittsburgh reception. The link

920
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:42,319
Speaker 1: for that story is in the episode description. It's a

921
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 1: very helpful tool if you want to do more than

922
00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:48,600
Speaker 1: just guests. But don't forget the tiebreaker when you fill

923
00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:53,239
Speaker 1: out your entries for the favorites contest Favorites dot Actionnetwork

924
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:57,560
Speaker 1: dot Com. All right, Simon, so here's what I would say.

925
00:46:58,239 --> 00:47:00,840
Speaker 1: We're going to get to the money line under round Robin.

926
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:05,280
Speaker 1: We're going to get to survivor. Right now, the games

927
00:47:05,280 --> 00:47:14,840
Speaker 1: that we'll be looking at Bills, Tennessee, Seattle Falcons, Bears, Pats, Jets, Texans.

928
00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:17,719
Speaker 1: That's one, two, three, four, five, six, seven.

929
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:19,640
Speaker 2: Eight.

930
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 1: That's about right. Normally when we go into the Sunday,

931
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:25,040
Speaker 1: we've got eight games and there's two or three of

932
00:47:25,040 --> 00:47:27,160
Speaker 1: that are the last out and two or three of

933
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:30,279
Speaker 1: the last in. So I feel good about this sort

934
00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 1: of tightening up.

935
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:34,200
Speaker 2: Now, this feels good. The worst week's are the ones

936
00:47:34,239 --> 00:47:35,719
Speaker 2: we only love, like three or four games and we

937
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:39,040
Speaker 2: got to force up one or two. So yeah, I'm

938
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:43,319
Speaker 2: enjoying these days where it feels easy. Chad, so usually

939
00:47:43,360 --> 00:47:44,719
Speaker 2: a little bit of a red flag, but there's just

940
00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:47,439
Speaker 2: so many games that we just we don't have a choice,

941
00:47:47,440 --> 00:47:49,680
Speaker 2: like we just have to play. We're getting a great

942
00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:52,640
Speaker 2: number played by the book and make these teams prove us,

943
00:47:52,640 --> 00:47:54,200
Speaker 2: prove it to us why they should be these bigger

944
00:47:54,200 --> 00:47:57,239
Speaker 2: favorites on the road. So yeah, another week. We just

945
00:47:57,280 --> 00:47:59,200
Speaker 2: love a lot of home dogs.

946
00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:04,320
Speaker 1: Money line underdog round robin Tennessee.

947
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:09,680
Speaker 2: No brainer. It sucks Atlanta flip because that would have

948
00:48:09,719 --> 00:48:14,160
Speaker 2: been a nice one. Yeah, gotta go Seahawks. That's a

949
00:48:14,160 --> 00:48:19,520
Speaker 2: great number. That's such a big number. Houston's kind of

950
00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:21,880
Speaker 2: cheating because it's only plus one.

951
00:48:22,520 --> 00:48:24,880
Speaker 1: But I was gonna say Houston, but it felt a

952
00:48:24,920 --> 00:48:26,520
Speaker 1: little bit weak.

953
00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:28,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's go big on this one. Then let's go

954
00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 2: Jets too. So we got Jets.

955
00:48:31,840 --> 00:48:32,640
Speaker 1: Why would you do that?

956
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:41,359
Speaker 2: We got Jets, Seahawks, Tennessee, Tennessee Patriots.

957
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:43,360
Speaker 1: I like that a lot.

958
00:48:45,840 --> 00:48:47,560
Speaker 2: And there's a couple I could put here in the

959
00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:50,760
Speaker 2: five spot that are like small small dogs.

960
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 1: I'm trying to find a guy like eight thousand tabs

961
00:48:56,040 --> 00:48:57,240
Speaker 1: open here, so hold.

962
00:48:57,040 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 2: On, I mean, it could be fun going Jaguars pull

963
00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:01,080
Speaker 2: up the big up. So I just I just can't

964
00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:02,560
Speaker 2: see my homes losing back to back.

965
00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:04,920
Speaker 1: No, we're not. I don't want to jinx that in

966
00:49:04,960 --> 00:49:05,480
Speaker 1: any way.

967
00:49:05,800 --> 00:49:08,040
Speaker 2: You want to go. I can't do it. I can't.

968
00:49:08,040 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 2: I can't believe the Panthers might win.

969
00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 1: It's not a terrible spot.

970
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 2: No, you know what, Let's go Commanders.

971
00:49:21,640 --> 00:49:24,320
Speaker 1: Hold on. Let me give one last review here.

972
00:49:25,160 --> 00:49:27,520
Speaker 2: Because we can't go Rams even though I really want

973
00:49:27,560 --> 00:49:28,160
Speaker 2: to believe in it.

974
00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:30,040
Speaker 1: Dude, why wouldn't we do the Ravens.

975
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:35,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Ravens, Ravens because I have minus three. So

976
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 2: now I'm the cheer for the Ravens money line too.

977
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:39,880
Speaker 2: Goddamn it. But I guess that is the that is

978
00:49:39,920 --> 00:49:41,000
Speaker 2: for the fans of the show.

979
00:49:41,600 --> 00:49:46,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right, for the fans. Do it for the people,

980
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:48,680
Speaker 1: all right, Survivor. We both like the Giants. If we

981
00:49:48,719 --> 00:49:52,000
Speaker 1: had to choose a second one, I know it sounds crazy.

982
00:49:52,200 --> 00:49:56,200
Speaker 1: I would do the Broncos, would you, I'd go Bills.

983
00:49:56,239 --> 00:49:59,240
Speaker 2: Just that. That's that. I gave us Josh Allen sixteen

984
00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:02,359
Speaker 2: on one as a seven point favorite or more. So,

985
00:50:02,440 --> 00:50:05,000
Speaker 2: that's a nice stat just to take them. If you

986
00:50:05,040 --> 00:50:06,360
Speaker 2: just want to get rid of a guy that's in

987
00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:10,279
Speaker 2: really tough division, Take the Bills, all right?

988
00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:13,440
Speaker 1: Did I miss anything? We got the money line round Robin,

989
00:50:14,080 --> 00:50:17,960
Speaker 1: we got the Survivor. We narrowed it down to eight teams.

990
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:21,719
Speaker 1: We did sharp calls. I'm looking at my notes. I

991
00:50:21,719 --> 00:50:22,800
Speaker 1: don't think I missed anything.

992
00:50:24,040 --> 00:50:27,319
Speaker 2: Nope. We'll see you, beautiful people Sunday night. We will.

993
00:50:27,600 --> 00:50:32,040
Speaker 1: Please remember you can catch every episode of The Favorites

994
00:50:32,320 --> 00:50:37,080
Speaker 1: live on YouTube every Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday. If you're

995
00:50:37,080 --> 00:50:39,400
Speaker 1: watching us on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like.

996
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:44,239
Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page also as a

997
00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:47,919
Speaker 1: reminder of The Favorites podcast is presented by bet three

998
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Speaker 1: sixty five. Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary. They

999
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Speaker 1: believe that every sport should be epic, every touchdown, every game,

1000
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Speaker 1: every point, every play, from the moments that are legendary

1001
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Speaker 1: to the ones that flight under the radar. See for

1002
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Speaker 1: yourself when you sign up today with Code Action and

1003
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Speaker 1: you'll get three hundred and sixty five dollars in bonus

1004
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Speaker 1: whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five.

1006
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Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older. Must be president in Colorado, Iowa,

1007
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:24,440
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia. If you or someone you

1008
00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:27,399
Speaker 1: know has a gambling problem and wants help, call one

1009
00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:31,480
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia

1010
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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms and

1011
00:51:35,120 --> 00:51:40,640
Speaker 1: conditions apply. Final recap The Foxhole Bet Houston minus one,

1012
00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:45,880
Speaker 1: Now Big Balls, New England plus three. Exec Decision Atlanta

1013
00:51:46,200 --> 00:51:48,800
Speaker 1: plus one and a half. The Signon says was Buffalo

1014
00:51:48,840 --> 00:51:54,320
Speaker 1: minus eight and a half. The Round Robin Tennessee, Seattle,

1015
00:51:54,600 --> 00:52:01,520
Speaker 1: The Jets, Washington, Baltimore. Before we sign off, reminder that

1016
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:03,960
Speaker 1: Simon and I will be back with our week two

1017
00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:08,319
Speaker 1: recap episode live on app, on amp and the Action

1018
00:52:08,400 --> 00:52:14,120
Speaker 1: Network YouTube page this Sunday and every Sunday at seven

1019
00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 1: thirty Eastern. This has been the favorite podcast part of

1020
00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:24,879
Speaker 1: the Action Network. I am Chad Milman for Simon Hunter.

1021
00:52:25,480 --> 00:52:28,960
Speaker 1: Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your podcast,

1022
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1023
00:52:31,320 --> 00:52:35,400
Speaker 1: want feedback as a gift until Sunday Nights. Love you.

1024
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:45,640
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1025
00:52:45,680 --> 00:52:48,480
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