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Speaker 1: Hello everybody, and welcome to a special episode of.

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Speaker 2: College football Game Day Live.

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Speaker 1: I am your host, Thorneistrom, joined as always by the

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Speaker 1: godfather of recruiting, Mike Farrell Mike Farrell Sports. Over the

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Speaker 1: next sixty minutes, Mike and I will handicap the twelve

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Speaker 1: bowl games between December twenty eighth and December thirtieth. We

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Speaker 1: have a lot to get to today, so let's get

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Speaker 1: right into it. We're going to begin with the Military

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Speaker 1: Ball in Annapolis, Maryland, on Wednesday, December twenty eighth, at

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Speaker 1: one pm Eastern. Duke is a three point favorite against UCF.

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Speaker 1: We have a total on this game of sixty two

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Speaker 1: and a half.

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Speaker 2: Mike, who do you like in the Military Ball?

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Speaker 3: I think this is going to be a defense, a

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Speaker 3: defensive struggle of sorts. Duke is a pretty good defensive team.

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Speaker 3: Mike Elco's got a good fingerprint on their defense. They

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Speaker 3: stop the run. Well, we know that UCF has. You

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Speaker 3: know obviously they're passing quarterbacks in the portal, so that's

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Speaker 3: not good. You know, Rice Plumbley, who John Ryce Plumley,

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Speaker 3: who you hate it on all season long as the

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Speaker 3: guy that I like as a runner, But he's not

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Speaker 3: really a delite passer. I think they're going to stuff

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Speaker 3: him a little bit. You know, Blue Devils are very

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Speaker 3: good against the spread this season. They won money five

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Speaker 3: and one in the last six games. Overall, they usually

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Speaker 3: cover the line. They're usually the underdog, But in this case,

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Speaker 3: I always like UCP. But I'm gonna take Dooke care

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Speaker 3: because I think this is a better matchup for the

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Speaker 3: better defense, and I think they have the better defense,

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Speaker 3: and I would parlay this with the under. This is

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Speaker 3: a high number. This could be a high scoring game,

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Speaker 3: but I doubt it. There's gonna be a whole lot

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Speaker 3: of running on both sides here. The over is the trend.

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Speaker 4: You know. The over is you know five four.

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Speaker 3: And one for the Knights in the last five games

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Speaker 3: and six and zero in the last six Bowl games

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Speaker 3: for the Blue Devil's over. But take the under here.

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Speaker 3: It's a high number, and take Duke with that quarterback

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Speaker 3: situation that you see.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Mike, you mentioned Mikey Keenan and the transfer portal,

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Speaker 1: which is a big deal. With the health issues that

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Speaker 1: John Rice Plumbley has had down the stretch, John Rice

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Speaker 1: Plumley has had the shoulder issue the hamstring issue most recently,

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Speaker 1: but he's had it throughout November.

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Speaker 2: He also had the concussion issue.

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Speaker 1: He has not finished or even played in five of

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Speaker 1: the last six games for UCF. That that brings Thomas

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Speaker 1: Castellanos to QB three for UCF, potentially to the four

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Speaker 1: if if John Rice Plumbley cannot finish this game. You

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Speaker 1: see also out the door for them their wide receiver

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Speaker 1: one Ryan O'Keeffe.

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Speaker 4: Uh.

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Speaker 1: They also have Jean Baptiste, one of their best defenders

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Speaker 1: out the door the linebacker, and also their top cornerback

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Speaker 1: Devonte Brown, all starters. They're all all high impact players.

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Speaker 1: UCF sort of stumbled down the stretch because John Rice

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Speaker 1: Plumbley his health issues. Duke meanwhile, sort of off the radar.

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Speaker 1: They played really well down the stretch and and the

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Speaker 1: breakout season that they had going eight and four. I

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Speaker 1: really like the way that that Duke plays, you know,

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Speaker 1: and and and the breakout. Like I was mentioning, Duke

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Speaker 1: can play multiple on offense in a way that you

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Speaker 1: SEEF can't. Again, I really let the way that that

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Speaker 1: they play. I'm gonna lay the points with Duke in

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Speaker 1: that game. I think that they're going to win it

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Speaker 1: moving on to the next game, the Liberty Ball.

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Speaker 2: In that one same day kickoff.

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Speaker 1: There we have a five thirty Eastern kickoff on Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: the twenty eighth. Arkansas is a three point favorite in

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Speaker 1: the market right now with a total of sixty nine.

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Speaker 2: Who do you like in that one, Mike?

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Speaker 3: You know, I'm gonna take Kansas here. Arkansas has a

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Speaker 3: bit of a mess. I mean that they've lost so

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Speaker 3: many players to the portal. It's hard to figure out

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Speaker 3: what this roster is all about. How interested they're going

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Speaker 3: to be in this bowl game. There's a disappointing year

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Speaker 3: for Sam Pittman. Meanwhile, Kansas hasn't been to a bowl

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Speaker 3: game in one hundred years. They're going to be very

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Speaker 3: excited about this. This is almost like a New Year's

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Speaker 3: six Bowl to them. They haven't lost nearly as much

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Speaker 3: of their roster to attrition as well to you know,

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Speaker 3: the portal itself.

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Speaker 4: I like Sam Pittman as a coach.

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Speaker 3: You know, I don't like Kansas's defense, so I I'm

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Speaker 3: leaning towards Kansas to cover this in a high scoring game.

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Speaker 4: I like Kansas and the over.

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Speaker 1: I like where your head's at in that one. And yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're You're totally right. Kansas lost very little in terms

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Speaker 1: of opt outs in this game. Arkansas lost a metric

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Speaker 1: ton Jayden hazel Wood their their top receiver out in

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Speaker 1: this one. Key Tron Jackson, another starting receiver, has opted out.

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Speaker 1: War Warren Thompson UH one of the top backup wide

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Speaker 1: receivers in the transfer portal as well, which matters because

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Speaker 1: of the two starters being out. Trey Knox, a former

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Speaker 1: wide receiver who was starting a tight end for them,

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Speaker 1: has also transferred out. Starting center UH Ricky Stromberg has

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Speaker 1: also opted out, and then a whole bunch of starting

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Speaker 1: defenders as well, most notably Drew Sanders UH their top linebacker,

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Speaker 1: but also Bumper Pool and then multiple guys in the secondary. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: Catalan's injured. Also, Miles Flusher has has has quit the

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Speaker 1: team and he transferred out as well. Because of all

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Speaker 1: that different stuff, my justin on this one has shifted

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Speaker 1: all the way to Kansas being favored. During the season,

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Speaker 1: if both these teams were at full strength on a

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Speaker 1: neutral field, I think my justice line would have been

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Speaker 1: Arkansas by something like five or six points. But it

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Speaker 1: shifted all the way to Kansas being favored by two points,

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Speaker 1: and then you have to add in the motivation. Kansas

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Speaker 1: hasn't played in a ball game since two thousand and eight.

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Speaker 1: That was so long ago, Mike I was a senior

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Speaker 1: in college at Kansas at that time. Kansas prioritized, obviously

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Speaker 1: getting back to the ball. They talked about all season long.

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Speaker 1: They were able to persevere through their quarterback being injured

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Speaker 1: to get there. Kansas has a top twenty offense in

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Speaker 1: the nation by all the advanced metrics this season despite

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Speaker 1: playing through their starting quarterback being injured Jalen Daniels, and

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Speaker 1: now Jalen Daniels is back to being fully healthy for

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Speaker 1: the first time since early October. I really like Kansas

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Speaker 1: in this game. They were able to move the ball

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Speaker 1: season despite Daniels being injured, and now he's back, They're

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Speaker 1: going to be able to slice up Arkansas defense. And

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Speaker 1: I like what you said about this game being a shootout.

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Speaker 1: Arkansas is going to be able to move the ball

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Speaker 1: on this crappy Kansas defense. But with Arkansas their defense

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Speaker 1: being depreciated, Kansas certainly gonna be able to move the

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Speaker 1: ball on them as well. And getting the three points

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Speaker 1: with Kansas, I'm going to take that and I think

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Speaker 1: Kansas is going to win this game outright as well.

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Speaker 1: Moving to the next one on that Wednesday, This one

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Speaker 1: is an eight pm Eastern kickoff on that day, the

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Speaker 1: Holiday Ball in San Diego, California. Oregon is laying fourteen

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Speaker 1: and a half points live in the market right now

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Speaker 1: in a game that has a whole bunch of opt outs,

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Speaker 1: Oregon against North Carolina. In that one, like I said,

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Speaker 1: fourteen a half point favorite, seventy three and a half

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Speaker 1: point total. In this one, I'll run through the opt

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Speaker 1: outs really quick because we have a whole bunch.

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Speaker 2: I'll try to stick just to the notable ones.

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Speaker 1: Oregon has a whole bunch of tertiary ones, but some

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Speaker 1: of the ones there Dante Thornton, a kid who is

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Speaker 1: playing more down the stretch wide receiver, and Justin Flow

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Speaker 1: who is playing a little bit down down the stretch

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Speaker 1: as well. Ballyhood linebacker and then specifically their lockdown corner

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Speaker 1: Christian Gonzalez for the Ducks. Then on the North Carolina side,

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Speaker 1: Joshua Downs their stud Speed Merchant wide receiver and then

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Speaker 1: their secondary specifically on the North Carolina side got absolutely decimated.

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Speaker 1: Tony Grimes, Storm Duck and Cameron Kelly opting out Mike.

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Speaker 2: Who do you like in that game?

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Speaker 3: So the over strikes me first, because there's no way

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Speaker 3: North Carolina. North Carolina lost their entire defense pretty much,

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Speaker 3: which wasn't a good defense. But they're still going to

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Speaker 3: be playing a lot of young guys with a lot

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Speaker 3: of not a lot of experience going against an Oregon

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Speaker 3: offense where blow Knicks is coming back. They still have

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Speaker 3: a lot of weapons despite some losses to the Portal

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Speaker 3: and to the NFL.

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Speaker 4: But I like the over first.

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Speaker 3: The line is really high, you know, I think Oregon's

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Speaker 3: going to really thump them. I think it's gonna be

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Speaker 3: a high scoring game and they might win by twenty.

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Speaker 3: But I prefer the over here. I think it's just

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Speaker 3: sort of a shootout where Oregon's probably going to put

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Speaker 3: up forty you know, North Carolina's going to put up

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Speaker 3: I don't know, thirty eight something like crazy like that.

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Speaker 3: I wouldn't take the side that I would take the

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Speaker 3: over here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, my adjusted line when I'm you know, trying to

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Speaker 1: do my best to bake in all the opt outs

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Speaker 1: and everything like that, my adjusted line came out at

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Speaker 1: Oregon minus fifteen point one.

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Speaker 2: Which is really.

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Speaker 1: Close to what the Vegas line is. So I'm going

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Speaker 1: to stay away from that handicap. But my adjusted total

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Speaker 1: on this game is actually eighty. So Mike, I'm in

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Speaker 1: total agreement with you. I'm going with the over on

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Speaker 1: this one. In the regular season, both these teams had

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Speaker 1: top fifteen offenses sp plus and both of them were

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Speaker 1: sixty fifth or lower in terms of defense. Oregon was

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Speaker 1: the one that had the sixty fifth sp plus defense

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Speaker 1: and UNC was lower than one hundredth And like you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: both teams lost very key defenders U n C. It's like,

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Speaker 1: how could that the backups be worse than what they lost?

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Speaker 1: But they are. I suppose you know, I mean and

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Speaker 1: you and se that the guys they lost, we're sort

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Speaker 1: of valued recruits Grime specifically, who had transferred to Texas

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Speaker 1: A and M. But the big guys on offense are

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Speaker 1: all staying. You know, bow Knicks, Drake May specifically. This

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Speaker 1: game is going to be a shootout, and a crazy

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Speaker 1: shootout at that you're taking aim at these defenses that

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Speaker 1: we're bad as is and now they've been riddled with

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Speaker 1: all these defections. I'm going to say something like forty

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Speaker 1: eight to thirty one type Oregon win or something like that.

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Speaker 1: I'm I'm gonna go over on this one. Moving to

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Speaker 1: the next one, the Texas Ball in Houston, Texas. We

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Speaker 1: are now moving on to Thursday, December twenty ninth. This

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Speaker 1: is a two pm kickoff. On that day, we have

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Speaker 1: Ole Miss and Texas Tech. I'm sorry, this one's actually

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Speaker 1: on Wednesday, the twenty eighth. Pardon me, nine yea on

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Speaker 1: this one, Ole Miss and Texas Tech. Ole Miss is

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Speaker 1: favored by three and a half points in this one, with

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Speaker 1: a total of sixty nine and a half.

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Speaker 2: What do you like in this one, Mike?

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Speaker 4: The totals too high for me. I know you're going

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Speaker 4: to disagree, but I think that totals too. But I

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Speaker 4: like the side here.

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Speaker 3: I like Old Miss to cover this. You know, Old

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Speaker 3: Miss kind of flounder down the stretch. The lane kiff

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Speaker 3: and distractions were in everybody's heads. They didn't play that well.

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Speaker 4: He's back. I think this team is going to be refocused.

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Speaker 3: Their losses were the better football teams than Texas Tech's losses.

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Speaker 4: I like what Julian McGuire's doing there.

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Speaker 3: I think they held their own in a big twelve

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Speaker 3: that was looked great and wasn't as great and it wasn't

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Speaker 3: as deep. Old Miss knows how to play with the

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Speaker 3: big boys. I think they're going to be focused with

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Speaker 3: their coach back despite losses on either side.

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Speaker 4: Of course, we've got.

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Speaker 3: Portal losses, We've got you know, everything that goes into

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Speaker 3: a bowl game. Ole Miss going to cover this one

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Speaker 3: by you know, I'd say they're gonna win by a touchdown,

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Speaker 3: so lay the three and a half.

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Speaker 1: I yeah, I'm going to go over on this one.

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Speaker 1: Plays at at at such a quick tempo that the

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Speaker 1: fastest in the nation when you when when you look

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Speaker 1: at the adjusted tempo, they obviously they have such a

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Speaker 1: good rushing offense that that's the thing that is that

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Speaker 1: is held serve the the the entire season. They're getting

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Speaker 1: the emotional boost with with Lane Kiffin having turned down

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Speaker 1: Auburn and everything like that, and then everybody returned. You

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Speaker 1: look at these other games that we talked about, we

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Speaker 1: have to go through all these different opt outs and stuff.

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Speaker 1: Ole Miss didn't have as many. You know, you're mostly

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Speaker 1: talking about backups and stuff like that, you know, like

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Speaker 1: Altmeyer and and and some of those guys, and then

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Speaker 1: on Texas Tech. It's it's mostly the same. You had

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Speaker 1: the injury earlier in the season to Tyree Wilson, which

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Speaker 1: was unfortunate, but then you're most you know, and Baron

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Speaker 1: Morton I suppose as well. You know, he's questionable, but

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Speaker 1: then you know, like Donovan Smith, you know, uh, you know.

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Speaker 2: Guys like that.

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Speaker 1: But Texas Tech can put up points as well. It

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Speaker 1: looks like it's gonna be shock starting again for them.

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Speaker 1: I think both these teams are gonna put up points.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go over in that one as well.

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Speaker 1: Moving on to the next game on our docket now,

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Speaker 1: we're moving on to to Thursday, the twenty ninth. This

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Speaker 1: is a two pm Eastern kickoff in the Pinstripe Ball

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Speaker 1: in the Bronx. Minnesota has now moved up to being

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Speaker 1: a ten point favorite against Syracuse, who has sort of

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Speaker 1: a de facto home game here. We have a total

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Speaker 1: on this one of forty two points. Mike, who do

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Speaker 1: you like in this one?

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Speaker 3: You know Syracuse, you think, okay, it's a defect of

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Speaker 3: home game, as you mentioned, but they're a Dome team.

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Speaker 3: You know, this is going to be a cold football game.

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Speaker 3: It's going to be a run focused football game. It's

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Speaker 3: going to be who's stronger, who's bigger, who can wear

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Speaker 3: you down? And Minnesota's made for this type of weather

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Speaker 3: in this type of game.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if the snow, I don't know. Maybe

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Speaker 3: it'll be unseasonably warm. I don't know, but I just

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Speaker 3: know in a cold game. You know, SYRACU has been

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Speaker 3: horrible down the stretch, just absolutely horrible, not just in games,

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Speaker 3: but against the spread. You've lost money if you took

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Speaker 3: Syracuse down the stretch. I think they were zero and

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Speaker 3: five in the last five games.

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Speaker 4: Against the spread.

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Speaker 3: Minnesota is a solid team that usually covers ten and

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Speaker 3: five in the last fifteen games against the Spread's not great,

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Speaker 3: but it's certainly not bad. They're gonna run over Syracuse.

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Speaker 3: Syracuse has some key opt outs here, and I just

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Speaker 3: think that defense is kind of held up.

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Speaker 4: You know, they lost their DEFENSI quarter, they lost their

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Speaker 4: offensive quarter.

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Speaker 3: They're a mess. They're an absolute mess. Take Minnesota. They

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Speaker 3: could win this game by twenty points.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Mike.

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Speaker 1: And to your point, and you know, first of all,

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Speaker 1: the coordinator thing, Robert and I he's gone to NC State.

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Speaker 1: Tony White, the defensive coordinator he's gone to Nebraska, and

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Speaker 1: then the huge opt out on Syracuse is Sean Tucker.

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Speaker 1: They do have other ones, you know, in this they

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Speaker 1: have a couple in the secondary that there's an injury

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Speaker 1: in the secondary. There's a couple of transfers in the secondary.

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Speaker 1: They have a couple, they have an injury in the

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Speaker 1: defensive front seven, they have a couple transfers in the

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Speaker 1: defensive front of and but that the huge opt out

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Speaker 1: there is is Sean Tucker.

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Speaker 2: Just absolutely enormous.

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Speaker 1: We see in the past couple of years when Seawn

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Speaker 1: Tucker's out, the whole offense just creators. And and when

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Speaker 1: Syracuse jumps up, it's when Shaan Tucker is playing, and

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Speaker 1: when he's playing well. On the Minnesota side, when when

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Speaker 1: Tanner Morgan went down with injury, Minnesota's offense played down.

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Speaker 1: You know, when when Kaliacmanus came in, that the offense

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Speaker 1: played down a bit. But it's not as precipitous as

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Speaker 1: when Sean Tucker has been out for for Syracuse. I

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Speaker 1: do think it's gonna be Colliacmanis again for Minnesota. I've

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Speaker 1: heard some differing things from my Minnesota sources about that. Uh,

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Speaker 1: I like what I'm hearing is that Tanner Morgan is

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Speaker 1: back in a limited capacity at practices.

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Speaker 2: I I've heard that.

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Speaker 1: Uh there's a shot that we see Tanner Morgan like

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Speaker 1: in what could be a swan song for him. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you know like that that there there could be interests

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Speaker 1: if Tanner More wants to play in his last game,

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Speaker 1: that that the coaching staff could allow him to do that.

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Speaker 1: But like you know that that probably they're going to,

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Speaker 1: you know, allow Kaliac Monas to finish out the season.

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Speaker 1: So I like, you know, in terms of your handicap,

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Speaker 1: you you know, you should assume that this is going

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Speaker 1: to be Kliac Manus's game, you know, and sort of

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Speaker 1: bake that in or whatever, and and and sort of

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Speaker 1: assume that Minnesota is not gonna have much of a

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Speaker 1: passing attack again.

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Speaker 2: Because it's not just that that Tanner More.

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Speaker 1: Don't matter, yeah, his injury, it's it's also atman Bell's right,

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Speaker 1: like they didn't have much of a receiving core before,

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Speaker 1: but then when as Belk got hurt as well, it's.

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Speaker 4: It's going to be the three hundred and thirty pound

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Speaker 4: offensive lineman that p J.

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Speaker 3: Fle loves leaning on those Syracuse guys and that depleted

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Speaker 3: defense and run, run, run, and where I'm down to destroyer.

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Speaker 1: And that's exactly right. It's been the mo Ibrahim show.

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Speaker 1: Mo Ibrahim has been awesome again this year, as he's

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Speaker 1: been throughout his career when he's been healthy. And here's

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Speaker 1: where the rubber meets the road of this handicap and

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Speaker 1: this line getting up to ten with with Sean Tucker

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Speaker 1: being out and why I think this is correct. Not

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Speaker 1: only is Syracuse's offense crater when when Tucker's out the

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Speaker 1: biggest weakness of the Syracuse team all season, their run

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Speaker 1: defense stinks one hundred and twenty second in the nation

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Speaker 1: in success rate against the run. Minnesota. All they can

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Speaker 1: do on offense when when Collie Amantis is in, it's

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Speaker 1: run the ball and they're still super good at it.

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Speaker 1: They are going to run the ball down Syracuse's throat.

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Speaker 1: This one is Minnesota or stay away, lay whatever you

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Speaker 1: got to Minnesota all the way in that one.

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Speaker 4: It's forty two is on one. I like the under two.

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Speaker 3: I think this could be like a you know, I

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Speaker 3: don't know, like a thirty to ten type of pacing,

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Speaker 3: But I don't think it's going to go over forty two.

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Speaker 1: Moving on to our next one, the Alamobile on Thursday,

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Speaker 1: December twenty ninth. This is a nine pm Eastern kickoff.

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Speaker 1: Texas laying four points against Washington. We have a total

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Speaker 1: on this one of sixty seven and a half. Mike,

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Speaker 1: who do you like in the Alamo Bile between Texas

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Speaker 1: and Washington.

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Speaker 4: And let's not forget Florida State Oklahoma. So we'll go

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Speaker 4: back to that one because that's the.

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Speaker 1: Totally skip Oh yeah, but it's okay, Sorry, Texas, I'm sorry.

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Speaker 3: No, no, no, because that one's my big money game. I mean,

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Speaker 3: that's one you're going to Lady mortgage on. So we'll

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Speaker 3: get to Florida State the second. But Texas, you know,

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Speaker 3: both of these.

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Speaker 4: Teams have good news in the offseason.

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Speaker 3: Okay, you know Texas hasn't lost a lot of people

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Speaker 3: when yours is developing.

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Speaker 4: Obviously things are going well in the recruiting department.

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Speaker 3: There there's a lot of excitement. Of course, Bijon Robinson

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Speaker 3: not being in it's going to hurt them. Michael Pennix

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Speaker 3: coming back for Washington is good news. I mean, both

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Speaker 3: these teams are.

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Speaker 4: Kind of on a high.

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Speaker 3: But Bijon is Bijon. Without him, I don't trust Texas.

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Speaker 3: I don't trust their offense even kind of with him.

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Speaker 3: So I'm going to take Washington here, and I think,

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Speaker 3: you know, I think we're both going to agree on this.

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Speaker 3: It's just I don't know what I'm going to get

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Speaker 3: from Texas in a bowl game. I know there's like

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Speaker 3: I said, there's positivity and momentum towards next season. I

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Speaker 3: don't think of a crap about this. I know Washington does.

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Speaker 3: I know they do. They're building momentum and the bower

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Speaker 3: as the seen headed in the right direction.

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Speaker 1: So gim me Washington one thousand percent. You know, you

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Speaker 1: talk again. Going back to the opt out thing. And

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Speaker 1: I was talking about this with a handicapper last night,

379
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Speaker 1: actually about and I don't want to toot my own horn,

380
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Speaker 1: but I'm about to. I've started out really hot during

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Speaker 1: ball season, like at this point, it's like eleven and

382
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Speaker 1: two against the spread er, twelve and two against the

383
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Speaker 1: spread something like that on the sides. And you know,

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Speaker 1: he was asking me like about it, like you know

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Speaker 1: how whatever. And I did well last year as well.

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Speaker 1: Opt outs inform a lot of the handicaps. Now it's

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Speaker 1: a different ballgame now with handicap and the sides of

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Speaker 1: the balls than it was two years ago. Right up,

389
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Speaker 1: tilts are informant a lot of what you see with

390
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Speaker 1: these side handicaps or whatever. This game is a great

391
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Speaker 1: example of it, where on the Texas side you have

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Speaker 1: so many different defections.

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Speaker 2: On the Washington side for they have very few.

394
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Speaker 1: Michael Pennix, who is worth a whole bunch of points

395
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Speaker 1: on the side, he comes out and says emphatically, I

396
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Speaker 1: am playing. I've never played in the Bowl game before.

397
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Speaker 1: I want to play in this game. I'm super stoked

398
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Speaker 1: about playing in this game. Michael Pennick, who started his

399
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Speaker 1: career played most of it in Indiana, never got to

400
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Speaker 1: play in a Bowl game, you know, in part of

401
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:33,439
Speaker 1: the COVID season where they were good whatever. You know,

402
00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:35,359
Speaker 1: he ain't gonna play in the Bull game, so he

403
00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:37,600
Speaker 1: really wants to play in it. On the Texas side,

404
00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:42,080
Speaker 1: Bjon Robinson has opted out, which makes sense. His awesome

405
00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:45,960
Speaker 1: backup Roacheawan Johnson also opted out. Roachan Johns is gonna

406
00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:48,240
Speaker 1: play in the NFL for a long time. But Texas

407
00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:51,120
Speaker 1: goes from arguably the best running back room in America

408
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Speaker 1: to now that they I mean, they have very talented

409
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Speaker 1: running backs behind them, but the kids who haven't played

410
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Speaker 1: a lot, right, so we'll see how that goes. But

411
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Speaker 1: then also you know they're wide receiver route. You know,

412
00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:04,960
Speaker 1: they still have good receivers. But the depth has taken

413
00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:07,479
Speaker 1: a big shot. They had a couple of offensive linemen

414
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:11,000
Speaker 1: who have transferred out their their edges. The depth took

415
00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:16,000
Speaker 1: a big shots and then over showing uh he has

416
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Speaker 1: also opted out as well. So so Texas lost a

417
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:21,400
Speaker 1: lot of value there when you add it all up,

418
00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:24,720
Speaker 1: my line on that game became a pick on, whereas

419
00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,440
Speaker 1: the Vegas line it took a long time to even

420
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Speaker 1: come down to four. So the ticket I got on

421
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Speaker 1: this one, I think I have Washington plus six or

422
00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:34,560
Speaker 1: Washington plus five and a half or whatever. Now it's

423
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Speaker 1: down to four, I'm still happy taking Washington plus four

424
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:39,800
Speaker 1: on that one. I also got the money line tickets

425
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 1: on Washington and everything like that. Washington's gonna be able

426
00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:44,560
Speaker 1: to throw all over Texas.

427
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Speaker 2: In this game.

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Speaker 1: So I'm I'm taking Washington this one, and I'm also

429
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:51,360
Speaker 1: taking Washington outright in that game as well. And now

430
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Speaker 1: I'll move back to Florida State and Oklahoma I apologize

431
00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,040
Speaker 1: to Florida State, and in this one, I apologize to you, Mike.

432
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Speaker 1: Definitely not apologizing to Oklahom. They disrespect to Oklahoma was

433
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:04,280
Speaker 1: intended in this one. But let's move back to the

434
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 1: cheese a ball in Orlando, Florida. Well, rewind the clock

435
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 1: to five thirty Eastern on Thursday, December twenty ninth, and

436
00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:13,359
Speaker 1: go and bring it to Orlando, Florida. Mike, who do

437
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:14,280
Speaker 1: you like in the cheese a ball?

438
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:18,080
Speaker 4: And Noville's going to be taking the cheese at bath?

439
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,000
Speaker 4: Because this is to me easy.

440
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 3: There's two elements here that I think are easy, that

441
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,080
Speaker 3: the line take the side. Florida State is a team

442
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:29,959
Speaker 3: that believes in themselves. They had a nine and three season.

443
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:32,200
Speaker 3: You know, we expected them to be this good, including me.

444
00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:35,680
Speaker 3: You know, they've got excellent quarterback play, which we haven't

445
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,720
Speaker 3: seen in kind of some time. They've they've really killed

446
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:40,880
Speaker 3: it in the transfer portal. A lot of guys are

447
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:44,920
Speaker 3: buying in here. They're looking at this as a big,

448
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:49,840
Speaker 3: big game for them. Oklahoma's defense is wretched, it's awful.

449
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 3: They have no chance of holding down to Florida State

450
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:56,800
Speaker 3: offense in this game. So I like the over as well.

451
00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,639
Speaker 3: I think this is going to be, like you know,

452
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,360
Speaker 3: I could this could be a fifty point not win,

453
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,720
Speaker 3: but the fifty points on Florida State side, and maybe

454
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 3: you know, Oklahoma comes back and gets in the thirties.

455
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:12,639
Speaker 3: But I don't do adjusted lines like you do. But

456
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:16,160
Speaker 3: when I see sixty six for this, I think more

457
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 3: seventy eight. And when I see this line of nine,

458
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 3: I think more fifteen. So take Florida State, parlay it

459
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 3: with the over, and make a ton of.

460
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 1: Money on one thousand percent. This game is a you know,

461
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 1: last we're recording this is going to come out a

462
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:32,360
Speaker 1: little bit later than the day were recorded, but we're

463
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 1: recording this on Friday, December twenty third. Last night, you

464
00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 1: know live from when we're recording this was it was

465
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 1: Baylor Air Force. This game is a bigger example of

466
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 1: what we saw last night where it was Baylor and

467
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,920
Speaker 1: air Force, where air Force was a really bad matchup

468
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:52,240
Speaker 1: for Baylor, even if they'd both been at full strength,

469
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:56,159
Speaker 1: because air Force had an awesome rushing attack and Baylor

470
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 1: had a bad run defense even as this, but then

471
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 1: Baylor suffered all these defections SEAKEI ECA and then also

472
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:05,359
Speaker 1: you know that the three hundred and fifty eight pounds

473
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:08,480
Speaker 1: you know, head knocker in the middle, and then also

474
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 1: Baylor's best run defender on the edge also opted out,

475
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:14,680
Speaker 1: then two of their starting corners, and then also two

476
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 1: offensive linemen that Baylor had and and air Force had

477
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:21,119
Speaker 1: had had none or whatever. The market didn't adjust to

478
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 1: it at all. It was still the same line even

479
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,639
Speaker 1: after that. Going back to my initial point out how

480
00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:28,360
Speaker 1: the market just doesn't adjust for for these opt outs

481
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 1: at all and even in these bad matchup games, but

482
00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 1: the adjustments that the market doesn't make at all.

483
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 2: This is another game sort of like that.

484
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 1: Oregon State and Florida earlier in ball season was another

485
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 1: example of this of one where it's it's a mismatch

486
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 1: as is, and then you have the opt outs on

487
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 1: one side and the market doesn't adjust.

488
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 2: This is This is Florida State and Oklahoma is another

489
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:52,120
Speaker 2: example of this.

490
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:55,480
Speaker 1: Florida State they don't really have the opt outs or

491
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 1: the defections and they match up super duper good. Here

492
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:02,920
Speaker 1: Florida State. They come out Jordan Travis, the star quarterback.

493
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:04,880
Speaker 1: He says that he's playing in this game and he's

494
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 1: returning next year. Jared Verse says he's playing in this game.

495
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 1: The stud edgdresher, Jammie Robinson, the star safety. They all

496
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 1: say that they're playing in this game.

497
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:16,360
Speaker 2: On and on and on.

498
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,880
Speaker 1: Oklahoma, who had the terrible season, they have all these

499
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 1: opt outs. Eric Gray, who was one of the shining

500
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,120
Speaker 1: lights of their offense, he opts out and he goes

501
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:26,200
Speaker 1: into the NFL draft.

502
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 2: Theo Weeze is out.

503
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 1: Both the starting tackles Wania Morris and Anton Harrison, who

504
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 1: are both standouts, they opt out. They go into the draft.

505
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 1: Jalen Redman, the defensive tackle, he leaves as well. And

506
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 1: then they had transfers in the linebacking corps. In the

507
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:49,160
Speaker 1: cornerback room. They have an injury in the linebacking corps

508
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:52,719
Speaker 1: as well. You mentioned it, Mike. Their defense stunk, as is.

509
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 1: Anybody can run on Oklahoma that was even a full strength.

510
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:58,760
Speaker 1: Florida State's rushing attack is one of the best in

511
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,400
Speaker 1: the nation. Even if if this one was straight up,

512
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,679
Speaker 1: I would still be taken Florida State to cover this number.

513
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:06,200
Speaker 2: With the opt outs.

514
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:11,360
Speaker 1: I think Florida State is going to blast Oklahoma Florida

515
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 1: State minus whatever at this number.

516
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 3: Absolutely, this is Florida, Oregon State again, you know, people

517
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 3: know Oklahoma better than they do I mean, people know

518
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 3: Florida State better than they did Oregon State, right, you know,

519
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:26,680
Speaker 3: Oregon State people didn't really know Florida's a big brand.

520
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:28,440
Speaker 4: Blah blah blah.

521
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,119
Speaker 3: This is the same situation. This is going to be

522
00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:33,600
Speaker 3: a blowout, There's no doubt about it. There's no way

523
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 3: to stop this offense. And so this is probably as

524
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 3: high as we were on Oregon State covering that and

525
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:42,879
Speaker 3: you know, turned up thirty to three with an embarrassing

526
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 3: field goal to stop it, you know, shut out streak

527
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 3: or whatever.

528
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:46,640
Speaker 4: This is going to be the same way.

529
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 3: Oklahoma is going to claw their way back to some respectability,

530
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 3: but we're.

531
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 4: Going to lose this game by three touchdowns at least.

532
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 1: My My whole overarching point is there's it's so hard

533
00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 1: to find value in the batting market, you know, it

534
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 1: is so sharp, but you can find it in ball

535
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:06,359
Speaker 1: season with these opt outs. It's one of the last

536
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 1: frontiers where you actually can. And if you want an

537
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 1: example on my point, go back to the live show

538
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 1: that Mike and I did and go back and listen

539
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 1: to when we were talking about Florida and Oregon State.

540
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 1: Go back and listen to what Mike was saying about

541
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 1: Jack Miller. Just go back and listen to those five

542
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:24,439
Speaker 1: minutes and then go back and look at what the

543
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:25,920
Speaker 1: market was doing with that line.

544
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 2: In the two hour lead.

545
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:31,360
Speaker 1: Up to kickoff, it went from Oregon State minus ten

546
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 1: to Oregon State minus eight. VSI N had me on

547
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 1: their show in the two hour lead up to that,

548
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 1: and the guy asked me. He's like, thora we know

549
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 1: that you're on Oregon State minus ten. Are you nervous

550
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:45,200
Speaker 1: that the line has gone down to only Oregon State

551
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:48,119
Speaker 1: minus eight? And I was like no, And he's like,

552
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 1: why not. There's all this heavy money coming in on Florida.

553
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 1: And I was like, I don't care. And he's like,

554
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 1: he's like why not, And I'm like, because because Florida

555
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 1: started Jack Miller at all these backups at Oregon State's

556
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 1: gonna deck. It's it's like, yeah, I mean, Florida State

557
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 1: walked into that, gave the I mean a gun. It's

558
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 1: just from a personnel standpoint, it just it just is

559
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 1: what it is. You can find the value with with

560
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,400
Speaker 1: the opt out stuff in both seasons in a way

561
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 1: that you can't during during the regular season. Again, it's

562
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 1: it's sort of the last frontier with with stuff like

563
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,199
Speaker 1: that that the market just misses on stuff like that

564
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:23,000
Speaker 1: if you're willing to do the dig in with it.

565
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:27,240
Speaker 1: So I just wanted to make that point. Guys, if

566
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:30,120
Speaker 1: you want, I'm gonna put it up on the screen

567
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 1: really quick.

568
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 2: For those who watching this.

569
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:33,880
Speaker 4: You did it, you nailed it.

570
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:35,159
Speaker 2: I did it. Guys.

571
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 1: If you want a shot to win that. Mike and

572
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:40,480
Speaker 1: I are very excited about this because this this giveaway

573
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 1: is only going on for a little bit longer through

574
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 1: the holiday season. But if you and Mike and I

575
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 1: want you guys to win this. If you want a

576
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 1: shot to win, assigned ISAA McKenzie Buffalo Bill's mini helmet

577
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 1: courtesy of our friends at Pristine Auction. You need to

578
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:57,679
Speaker 1: subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now, comment

579
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:00,639
Speaker 1: below on this video and that's it. We will be

580
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 1: announcing a winner right here on this channel. So make

581
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 1: sure to turn on those notifications so you can be

582
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 1: alerted when new episodes are up.

583
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:11,680
Speaker 2: And to claim your.

584
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,399
Speaker 3: You get a comment, you got to say we're handsome

585
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 3: or something, or say you know, this is our lame

586
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:20,199
Speaker 3: attempt at Travis Hunter. You know we're looking for one

587
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:23,639
Speaker 3: hundred thousand subscribers to this and we'll let you know

588
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 3: the lack of the week.

589
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 1: Mike, I loved your your joke about the Travis Hunter

590
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,120
Speaker 1: when you said if you get one hundred thousand, then

591
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:32,680
Speaker 1: you would announce where he was going.

592
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 3: Come on, man, you don't even get me started on

593
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 3: these kids.

594
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:37,200
Speaker 4: Mike.

595
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 1: You you had to love when Travis Hunter pulled off

596
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 1: that floy to get one hundred thousand, when we all

597
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 1: knew he was going to when Dion had said the

598
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:47,240
Speaker 1: week before, like, guys, he's coming to Colorado.

599
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 3: Travis, right, you got over one hundred and fifty thousand,

600
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 3: and people are too lazy to unsubscribe, so he's gonna.

601
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 4: It's genius, but the idiotic.

602
00:28:56,840 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 3: So for us, we're giving away something tangile, something real,

603
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 3: something you could physically hold, instead of garbage information that

604
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 3: we already knew, like trappers Hunter day.

605
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 2: I wish I was eligible. I put it up there,

606
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:10,479
Speaker 2: right up there.

607
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 3: Somebody walked into I don't think somebody walked into my

608
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 3: place last week in their big bills and they go,

609
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 3: you don't have any bills helmets.

610
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 4: I did have an O. J. Simpson, but I would.

611
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 4: I would certainly put right up there.

612
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 2: I would put I would put up by Jay over

613
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 2: O J.

614
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 1: Simpson for sure. Yeah. Moving on to our next game.

615
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 1: We are now we've moved on to we're getting near

616
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,640
Speaker 1: the new year, Mike. We're now on the Friday, December thirtieth.

617
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 1: This is a noon kickoff Maryland against U North Carolina State.

618
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 1: And oh my gosh, Mike, we've we've reached the Mayo

619
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,400
Speaker 1: Ball and there was an enormous announcement by the Mayo

620
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 1: Ball yesterday they confirmed that both coaches have confirmed that

621
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 1: they will receive the mail Ball if indeed they win.

622
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 1: So we're gonna get the Mayo bath like we did

623
00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 1: last year when when Shane Beamer won.

624
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 2: I don't know if Dennis Dodd is going to complain

625
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 2: about it again.

626
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 1: I'm guessing he learned his lesson last year when he

627
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 1: got dunked on by.

628
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 2: Shane Biemer after they won.

629
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 1: But Maryland is a one and a half point favorite

630
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 1: right now in the market. We have a total on

631
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 1: this game of forty seven. What side do you like

632
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 1: in this on, Mike.

633
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be a close game. I think

634
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 3: both teams have you know, solid defenses. You know, we

635
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 3: got some quarterback issues obviously Fantasy State, but they're growing

636
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 3: through those with their young quarterback. But I like the

637
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 3: way Maryland has sort of played this season. Has been

638
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:34,960
Speaker 3: very under the radar in a very difficult Big Ten.

639
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 3: And I know people say that they can's overrated, but

640
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 3: their division is not, and they've been competitive in a

641
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 3: lot of football games. They've given some tough teams a

642
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 3: difficult time. Mike Loxley is a good coach. He's going

643
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 3: to have his team focused and ready to play here.

644
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:49,720
Speaker 3: Dorin's a good coach too, but I think they're a

645
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 3: little bit under man. So give me Maryland to cover

646
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 3: this one in like maybe a twenty seven to twenty

647
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:58,480
Speaker 3: three type of win. And also, there's one hundred percent

648
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 3: no doubt in my mind that Mike Locke would look

649
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:04,560
Speaker 3: better with Manning's on his head than Dave Doran. I mean,

650
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:09,160
Speaker 3: I've known Locksley for twenty five years. I want to

651
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 3: see Mayo on his bald head much is anything I

652
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 3: want this bold season, and it's gonna happen.

653
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:20,200
Speaker 1: Man Uh, Yeah Doran is Uh.

654
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 2: Doran's a little more how surly I think.

655
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, franky son of a bitch. He would not like

656
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 4: it at all, would be like, oh wait whatever.

657
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, but we haven't had many disagreements in this show,

658
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 1: but this this one, we got a disagreement. And and

659
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 1: a part of it is I'm struggling to see, you know,

660
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,479
Speaker 1: going back to the opt outs right like, and she stayed.

661
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 1: They on their in in their instance on offense, it's

662
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 1: the injuries, right Like Leary you know, is injured.

663
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 2: Now he's out the door.

664
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 1: He's he's transferring to Kentucky, but he wouldn't have played

665
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:57,600
Speaker 1: anyone because he's injured. And then now they're they're down

666
00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 1: the depth chart in with their quarterback injuries. We actually

667
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 1: don't know who's gonna start this game. Is it gonna

668
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 1: be MJ. Morris? Is it gonna be the the Finley kid.

669
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 1: It seems like they soured on that Jack Chambers kid

670
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 1: real quick, so I think it's gonna be yeah, exactly.

671
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 1: All that kid could do is scramble around. He can't

672
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 1: he can't throw. But it's it's gonna be one of

673
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 1: those two kids. It's gonna be m J. Morris if

674
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 1: if he can go. If not, it's it's gonna be

675
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 1: the Findley kid.

676
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 2: So you have that.

677
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 1: We we know that that's what it's gonna be. On

678
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 1: the Maryland side, though tago By Lowe was able to

679
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 1: come back. He was banged up at the end of

680
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 1: the year, but he'd be played in the finale. He

681
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 1: was able to finish it, so we know we're gonna

682
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 1: get him. So that's good. But Maryland had all the

683
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:42,400
Speaker 1: defections in the wide receiver room. That wide receiver room

684
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 1: was awesome when it was at full strength. But the

685
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 1: Dante DIMIs opted out for the NFL Draft, Jacob Cobland

686
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:51,959
Speaker 1: opted out for the NFL draft. Rackem Jared opted out

687
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 1: for the NFL Draft. And then in addition to that,

688
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 1: uh CJ. DePree who Mike as you know, transferring out

689
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 1: that kid. Every one came after him in the transfer portal.

690
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 4: He was like.

691
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 3: That yeah and toss and all this ni L money.

692
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 1: He was like the pretty girl at the dance when

693
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 1: you entered the transferport I heard some of them. I'm

694
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 1: sure you heard a lot more than I did, but

695
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:17,960
Speaker 1: I I some of the rumors about some of the

696
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 1: figures that were being tossed to mister CJ.

697
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 2: Deprie.

698
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 1: Uh it was yeah anyway, so like uh, Tago bay

699
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 1: Loa who had all these weapons at the beginning of

700
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 1: the season. Now it is shrunk all the way down

701
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 1: to uh what Jayshawn Jones and then the the other

702
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 1: tight end that he had the platoon guy uh Dikes,

703
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 1: Corey Dice and not a lot else. And then Maryland

704
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 1: that the run game, which they basically just used, as

705
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 1: in baseball parlance, to get me over pitch. You wonder,

706
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 1: now will they have to run a little bit more?

707
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 1: NC State they did have a risky defense, right, and

708
00:33:57,200 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 1: they didn't lose as many defenders, right, so like NC

709
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 1: State retains their frisky defense. You wonder if they'll be

710
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 1: able to shut out the lights on that Maryland offense

711
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:10,160
Speaker 1: now that that Maryland's offense is depreciated now because Tago

712
00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 1: by law, it's you know, I mean, he's basically a

713
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 1: poor man's version of his brother, maybe even a homeless

714
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 1: man's version of his brother. And now that he doesn't

715
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:21,560
Speaker 1: have all those weapons, you know again, can they shut

716
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 1: out the lights on it? And in a more effective

717
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 1: way than Maryland's defense, which definitely is not as good

718
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 1: that they can do against the NC State offense that

719
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,280
Speaker 1: is playing the you know, with with the kid or whatever.

720
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:37,759
Speaker 1: So I'm going to go in Alwaukee game, you know,

721
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:40,239
Speaker 1: with with some of these offenses that are gonna look

722
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:42,239
Speaker 1: different than certainly than they did at the beginning of

723
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:44,840
Speaker 1: the season. But I'm going to side with NC State

724
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 1: my justed number. And you have to make some situational

725
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 1: assumptions here for sure, but trying to bake all this

726
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:55,359
Speaker 1: different stuff in. My justed number became NC State by

727
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:59,440
Speaker 1: three point six. Who knows if I'm making some missteps

728
00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 1: with with the I'm baking some of this stuff in.

729
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:05,239
Speaker 1: But I do like NC State in that one, And

730
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 1: and you do have to say too it it's more

731
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:10,319
Speaker 1: of a home field advantage here for NC State with

732
00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:12,239
Speaker 1: the game being played in Charlotte, So we'll see how

733
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:13,000
Speaker 1: that one plays out.

734
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:15,799
Speaker 4: Is a good play here too, I think that forty

735
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 4: seven too hot.

736
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:19,840
Speaker 1: Yes, and and Mike to your point that with it

737
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 1: being a forty seven, my systems adjusted total on that

738
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:24,840
Speaker 1: one is forty three, So would definitely agree with you

739
00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 1: on that one. Moving to our next game on Friday,

740
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:30,320
Speaker 1: December thirtieth, we got the sun Bolt in El Paso,

741
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:34,359
Speaker 1: Texas two pm Eastern kickoff. In this one, we got

742
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:37,200
Speaker 1: a weird line in this one, Mike, Ucla only favored

743
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:40,440
Speaker 1: by three and a half against Pittsburgh despite a bevy

744
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 1: of opt outs that I will get to in just

745
00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:44,759
Speaker 1: one second. We got a total on this one of

746
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 1: fifty four and a half. Let me run through the

747
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:51,359
Speaker 1: opt outs in this one really quick. We don't have

748
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 1: many right this second on Ucla. In fact, we basically

749
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 1: don't have any ones of note on on Ucla at

750
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:02,239
Speaker 1: the moment. There are, uh, you know, I guess status

751
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:05,120
Speaker 1: checks that that you know before you make your bag.

752
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:07,400
Speaker 1: I guess that you'd want to check on on Ucla.

753
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 1: That the the ones uh to think about? It's Dorian Thompson, Robinson,

754
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:16,320
Speaker 1: Zach Charboney, and Jake Bobo. I checked with a source

755
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:20,239
Speaker 1: yesterday because I this line had come all the way

756
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 1: down to UCLA minus three, and I was scratching my

757
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:26,279
Speaker 1: head so much because my adjusted line on this game,

758
00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 1: based on the Pittsburgh opt outs that I'll bring up

759
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 1: in a second, have become UCLA minus six sixteen point one,

760
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,080
Speaker 1: which you guys will understand the second one I.

761
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 2: Go through them.

762
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,359
Speaker 1: But I asked him for the odds that those got

763
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 1: you know, what he had heard, like if they were

764
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:44,360
Speaker 1: gonna opt out, and he gave me. He said he

765
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,799
Speaker 1: thinks that Etr will end up playing. He said seventy five,

766
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 1: He thought seventy five percent on d TR. He said

767
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 1: he thinks that Sharbonnay will end up opting out, but

768
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:54,879
Speaker 1: he you know, he is not yet. He said ten

769
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 1: percent on Sharboney. He thinks Bobo ends up playing. He

770
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 1: said one hundred percent on Bulba. You know who knows

771
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 1: because but those guys haven't announced yet, so you know,

772
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 1: again just guessing as of yesterday.

773
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:08,000
Speaker 2: The on the Pittsburgh side, you.

774
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:08,520
Speaker 1: Ready for this?

775
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 2: Keaton Slovas is he's transferring. He's out the door.

776
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:16,280
Speaker 1: Nick Patty he's had an ankle injury for most this season.

777
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:20,360
Speaker 1: He's back now. He's practicing with the ones. Nick Yarnell

778
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 1: their their quarterback three. He was in an open competition

779
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 1: with Patty, but he has been sick for most of December,

780
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 1: so he has fallen behind in that competition. I don't

781
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 1: know if he's gonna play or not. Is he Abaconda,

782
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:33,759
Speaker 1: who is their breakout start at running back? He has

783
00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 1: opted out and into the NFL draft. Two of their

784
00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 1: top rotational receivers, Jalen Bardon and Jayden Bradley have have transferred.

785
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:47,920
Speaker 1: There gone Jared Wayne. Their top wide receiver has not announced,

786
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 1: but it was sort of troubling. They ask Nor Doozy

787
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:53,520
Speaker 1: about his status and he was very noncommittal about it.

788
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 2: So you'll have to watch on that. A couple offensive.

789
00:37:57,040 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 1: Tackles, Gave Huey and Carter Warren have both opted out.

790
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 1: They basically shared one of the starting tackle jobs this year,

791
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 1: so pitt is down to their tackle four at one

792
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:10,440
Speaker 1: of the tackle spots, and then one of the other

793
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 1: starting tackles is still there. The defensive tackle Elijah Kansky

794
00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 1: has opted into the NFL draft. One of the best

795
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 1: defensive tackles in all of America and he's gonna be

796
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 1: a stud in the NFL for a while.

797
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:23,439
Speaker 2: Uh.

798
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:28,239
Speaker 1: John Morgan the third and edge rusher, he's really good.

799
00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:31,840
Speaker 1: He's transferring. And then they had they had a cluster

800
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:36,520
Speaker 1: of of edge defections and or injuries. Nate Tempo is injured,

801
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 1: Sam Williams in the transfer portal, Deslin Alexander a solid player,

802
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:44,760
Speaker 1: he opted out. And then this kid named Baladondo is injured.

803
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:46,319
Speaker 1: We don't know if he's gonna play or not. They

804
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 1: could really use him with all the other stuff there

805
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 1: on the edge. Then starting inside linebacker, this kid in Dennis,

806
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 1: he made all the line calls.

807
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 2: He is opted out into the NFL draft.

808
00:38:56,760 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 1: Starting safety Hill has opted out, and then this talent

809
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 1: under a kid another state.

810
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:02,959
Speaker 2: He is in the transfer portal, Mike.

811
00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 1: With all that being set on the pit side, that's

812
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 1: why my line had gotten all the way to UCLA

813
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:10,839
Speaker 1: minus sixteen point one. My adjusted line, now that being set,

814
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:13,520
Speaker 1: it doesn't accounte for any of the hypotheticals on the

815
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 1: UCLA side. If they don't have any, though, that's what

816
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:19,400
Speaker 1: my adjusted line will be. Obviously if DTR or sharpening

817
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:21,400
Speaker 1: or any of that stuff, if that were to come

818
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:25,880
Speaker 1: to fruition, the thing would change. But for me, the

819
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:29,359
Speaker 1: line is very very suspicious and or weird. With all

820
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:31,000
Speaker 1: that being set, What do you like in this game?

821
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:32,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, it makes no sense. I mean this is a

822
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 3: really low line. UCLA should last them, you know, Pits.

823
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 3: The team has sort of been disappointing this season. Even

824
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:42,400
Speaker 3: with all those players you just mentioned, They're gonna have

825
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 3: to play a whole lot of young guys, whole lot

826
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,399
Speaker 3: of inexperience. I just don't see a way that they're

827
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 3: gonna be able to stay in this football game.

828
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 4: Even if UCLA does have some late.

829
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 3: Out outs or you know, some guys that aren't going

830
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:54,399
Speaker 3: to play, this is a better football team. So take

831
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:58,239
Speaker 3: UCLA easily cover this by ten points. This is kind

832
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:01,200
Speaker 3: of kind of easy money set for the one thing

833
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:03,920
Speaker 3: you worry about a line that's so crazy like this

834
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 3: is somebody knows something and I don't know what that is.

835
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 3: Maybe you know the bust will breakdown and UCLA won't

836
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:11,160
Speaker 3: show up to the stadium.

837
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 4: But this makes me no sense. Take Ucla.

838
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 1: It makes no sense. And and and this is one

839
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:19,239
Speaker 1: where someone knows something that I don't. You can take

840
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 1: my money Vegas, like this is one. If this is

841
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 1: a stick me up, you can have it. I've made

842
00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:29,359
Speaker 1: my bet. I've made my bed. Go ahead and take it.

843
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 1: If Nick Patty, who hasn't played all year with the

844
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:35,359
Speaker 1: leg injury, if he can come in and rise up

845
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:38,720
Speaker 1: against you know, even if if dtr ends up opting

846
00:40:38,719 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 1: out and Sharboney ends up opting out, and Bobo is

847
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 1: a surprise opt out, and even if UCLA has a

848
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:47,320
Speaker 1: couple more, it would take all three of those guys

849
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 1: opting out and a couple more UCLA guys opting out

850
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:54,480
Speaker 1: and no other pit guys opting out for my line

851
00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:56,799
Speaker 1: to even catch up to where the Vegas line is

852
00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:02,279
Speaker 1: right now, That's what's so stunning about where this line is. Yeah,

853
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:05,839
Speaker 1: I mean it's it's suspicious, I guess, but like it's

854
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:09,839
Speaker 1: the discrepancy is so enormous that like it's not just

855
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:12,239
Speaker 1: one or two things that it would take for it

856
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 1: to it to line up. It is numerous ones, Like

857
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 1: it would take cataclysmic event for for the things to

858
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:22,080
Speaker 1: line up. And and yeah, it's it's suspicious. But like

859
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 1: I said before, like you know, I've started to notice

860
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:27,560
Speaker 1: over the the last couple of years with this during

861
00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 1: the regular seasons, there are times where like there will

862
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 1: be information that it's not that I miss it, it's

863
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,920
Speaker 1: that I don't have access to that information, like you know, like, uh,

864
00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:41,319
Speaker 1: the COVID season was a great example where like there

865
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:43,920
Speaker 1: was this one game during the COVID season where a

866
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:47,480
Speaker 1: Boston College game where like right before the game, Jerkovec

867
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 1: and I think it was Garwoh they were both ruled

868
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 1: out like right before the game, and the line was weird,

869
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:55,440
Speaker 1: and I was on Boston College and I just kicked

870
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 1: myself for for not realizing that something was off, you know,

871
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 1: but like, you know whatever, But like in Bull season,

872
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:05,799
Speaker 1: with the with the opt outs, I just don't think

873
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 1: that the market these past couple of years accurately bakes

874
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:12,359
Speaker 1: them in. And I'm not sure why, and and so

875
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:14,920
Speaker 1: with this this game and and other ones like it,

876
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 1: you know, the Baylor Air Force one, the Oregon State,

877
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:22,480
Speaker 1: Florida one, Florida State, Oklahoma. I just for whatever reason,

878
00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 1: the market just does not seem to be accurately baking

879
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 1: the opt outs in. So, if there's something off with

880
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:30,680
Speaker 1: this that I'm just not understanding, if a mass affection

881
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:35,360
Speaker 1: for UCLA is coming, whatever, you can have my money.

882
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 1: I've I've made enough from ball season so far. I'm

883
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 1: taking Ucla.

884
00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:42,880
Speaker 2: It just is what it is. I'm I'm laying those points.

885
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 1: Mike, move in to our next game here same day, Friday,

886
00:42:48,640 --> 00:42:51,880
Speaker 1: December thirtieth. This is a three thirty Eastern kickoff. Notre

887
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 1: Dame right now in the market is laying too. This

888
00:42:54,719 --> 00:42:57,399
Speaker 1: is another game with a whole bunch of opt outs

889
00:42:57,440 --> 00:42:59,880
Speaker 1: against South Carolina, who right now has has more of

890
00:42:59,920 --> 00:43:01,480
Speaker 1: the opt outs. The team that was playing really well

891
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:03,319
Speaker 1: at the end of the season. But this a South

892
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:05,560
Speaker 1: Carolina team is going to be looking a whole lot

893
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:07,680
Speaker 1: different in this game. We have a total in this

894
00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:09,440
Speaker 1: one of fifty one and a half in the Gator

895
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 1: Bowl in Jacksonville, Florida'll try to run through these ones

896
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 1: really quick for you, Mike.

897
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:15,799
Speaker 2: The opt outs on both sides.

898
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:18,319
Speaker 1: On the Notre Dame side, Drew Pine, the guy who

899
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:20,839
Speaker 1: started for most of the season at quarterback for Notre Dame,

900
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:24,080
Speaker 1: he has opted out. The reason he was starting a

901
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:26,719
Speaker 1: quarterback is because Tyler Buckner, the guy who began the

902
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:29,520
Speaker 1: season as the starter for Notre Dame, was injured. Notre

903
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:31,800
Speaker 1: Dame has said that Tyler Buckner as an outside chance

904
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 1: of starting this game. He returned to practice in a

905
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:36,560
Speaker 1: limited capacity. They said that he has to prove that

906
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:39,440
Speaker 1: he's healthy in practices well to see about that. If

907
00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:42,640
Speaker 1: he can't do that. Steven Jelly, the young freshman quarterback,

908
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:46,800
Speaker 1: he would start. The quarterback three, the big one on offense,

909
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:48,960
Speaker 1: the opt out for Notre Dame. Michael Mayer at the

910
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:51,720
Speaker 1: one weapon they had in the receiving game, the singular talent,

911
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,560
Speaker 1: the first round tight end that they have, the matchup nightmare.

912
00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 1: He was going to the NFL. And then Isaiah Fosky,

913
00:43:57,880 --> 00:44:00,799
Speaker 1: the edge rusher for Notre Dame. He is also going

914
00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 1: to the NFL Draft. The other big one of note

915
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:07,720
Speaker 1: for them for Notre Dame, cornerback Cam Hart is injured

916
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:10,520
Speaker 1: and will not play in this game. And then for

917
00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:14,560
Speaker 1: South Carolina a longer list. Marshawn Lloyd and NFL talent

918
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:17,440
Speaker 1: at running back. He is transferring out, will not play

919
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:21,960
Speaker 1: in this game. His backup, Christian Bale Smith, who had

920
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:24,360
Speaker 1: transferred in from Wake Forest, he is injured.

921
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 2: We don't know if he's gonna play. Mike, our mutual friend.

922
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:31,200
Speaker 1: And I want to say the name, but a guy

923
00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:35,279
Speaker 1: who goes to South Carolina, he told me that that

924
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:37,440
Speaker 1: Christian Bale Smith has been walking around campus in a

925
00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 1: walking but we know that he is questionable to play

926
00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:43,319
Speaker 1: in this one with with the injury that he has

927
00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:45,880
Speaker 1: had the the entire season or you know, for the

928
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:48,600
Speaker 1: latter part of the season. We'll have to see, you know,

929
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:51,600
Speaker 1: the beat reporters have said the same thing, so we'll

930
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 1: see how that goes. Josh Van the wide receiver, he

931
00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 1: is also questionable. Antoine Wells, he is also questionable with

932
00:44:57,239 --> 00:45:00,719
Speaker 1: an injury. Another receiver Corey Rucker is tree insferring out

933
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:05,560
Speaker 1: another receiver. The tight end rooms has gotten even more decimated.

934
00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:09,799
Speaker 1: Jaheem Bell is transferring out, Austin Stogner transferred out, and

935
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:13,240
Speaker 1: then Treveon Kenyan, who would have played a whole bunch,

936
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:16,240
Speaker 1: was the tight end three. He retired two days after

937
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:18,799
Speaker 1: those guys announced that they were transferring out, so they

938
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 1: fall way down on on on the Dutch chart. And

939
00:45:21,239 --> 00:45:23,759
Speaker 1: then this kid named Chad Terrell who was like a

940
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 1: tight end wide receiver, sort of hybrid guy. He's he uh,

941
00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 1: he's injured, so we don't know if he's gonna play.

942
00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:35,360
Speaker 1: Then on defense for South Carolina, Terrell Dowkins ed rusher,

943
00:45:35,440 --> 00:45:39,439
Speaker 1: he's injured, Gilbert Edmund is in the transfer portal, another

944
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 1: EDG dresser.

945
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:42,640
Speaker 2: Linebacker Mohammed Kaba is injured.

946
00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:46,160
Speaker 1: Then the big one for South Carolina, Cam Smith opted out,

947
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:50,920
Speaker 1: the singular talent at cornerback, and then Darius Rush, the

948
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 1: other starting cornerback, he's injured, but he's also opted out.

949
00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:57,919
Speaker 1: And then one of the starting safeties is transferring out

950
00:45:57,960 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 1: and another one is injured Michael.

951
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:01,800
Speaker 2: All that being said, who do you like in that one?

952
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:05,600
Speaker 4: I like South Carolina and it makes no sense, right.

953
00:46:05,719 --> 00:46:09,160
Speaker 3: But here's the thing. Notre Dame is favored in this

954
00:46:09,320 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 3: game because it's Notre Dame. It doesn't mean they're you know,

955
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:15,879
Speaker 3: you're going to care about this game. Doesn't mean they're

956
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:18,759
Speaker 3: a better football team. It doesn't mean that they're you know,

957
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 3: Shane Beamer rallies the troops man, he's he's got a

958
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:25,400
Speaker 3: great culture going on there and this team wants to

959
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 3: play for him. Now again, all the transfers would speak

960
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:32,479
Speaker 3: otherwise to that. But honestly, this is a situation where

961
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:34,680
Speaker 3: some of these kids, you know, Stockham went back home.

962
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:37,799
Speaker 4: You Bell wanted a better l deal, ends up Florida State.

963
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 3: This is a situation where I think there's there's a

964
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:46,040
Speaker 3: baked in favoritism for Notre Dame here just because they're

965
00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:48,760
Speaker 3: the big name and it's a bowl. You know, that's

966
00:46:48,800 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 3: that's on whatever, you know, New Year's Eve. South Carolina

967
00:46:52,800 --> 00:46:58,160
Speaker 3: is a good football team. Despite the losses they play.

968
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:01,560
Speaker 3: They've gotten thumped times, but they've been playing very well

969
00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:04,799
Speaker 3: down the season. Obviously that went against Clempson. They're on

970
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 3: a high. So momentum wise, care about game wise, also

971
00:47:09,160 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 3: rally the troops wise, Okay, we had some guys defects.

972
00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:15,879
Speaker 3: You know, forget those guys. I just like at South

973
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:18,640
Speaker 3: Carolina to cover this game probably won't out right because

974
00:47:18,640 --> 00:47:22,200
Speaker 3: Notre Dame a questionable quarterback situation scares the heck out

975
00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:26,640
Speaker 3: of me for them because I can't play, I don't

976
00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:28,359
Speaker 3: know what we're gonna get. I just have no idea.

977
00:47:28,440 --> 00:47:30,239
Speaker 4: And if he does play, I'll bang up. Is he

978
00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:30,600
Speaker 4: gonna be?

979
00:47:31,760 --> 00:47:32,040
Speaker 2: Yeah?

980
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:36,200
Speaker 1: And Mike, I'm with you in this one too. I'm

981
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 1: on South Carolina. My justin line on this one actually

982
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:41,440
Speaker 1: is South Carolina minus three point nine.

983
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:43,840
Speaker 2: Despite those myriad defections.

984
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:47,839
Speaker 1: And like, I don't know if I'm crazy or what,

985
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:51,280
Speaker 1: but South Carolina they played so well down the stretch.

986
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:54,239
Speaker 1: One of those games that was it against you know,

987
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:58,359
Speaker 1: they they blasted Tennessee in the second to the last game.

988
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 1: They did that with out literally any running backs on

989
00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:05,720
Speaker 1: the entire rost. So like in in you know Jahem

990
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:08,600
Speaker 1: Bell who you know he transferred out or whatever, but

991
00:48:08,719 --> 00:48:12,319
Speaker 1: that game he functioned as the lead back, like he

992
00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:14,400
Speaker 1: ran for over one hundred yards in that game. That

993
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:16,880
Speaker 1: the tight end at h back or whatever. Uh and

994
00:48:17,040 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 1: behind him that the guys that they were you know,

995
00:48:19,080 --> 00:48:20,440
Speaker 1: bringing in the backup running back.

996
00:48:20,640 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 2: They were backup receivers.

997
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:24,880
Speaker 1: Or you know, they were you know, functioning as wildcat

998
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 1: running you know whatever in in that game.

999
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:30,600
Speaker 2: Uh So, like yeah, I mean they're they're you know

1000
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:31,719
Speaker 2: in this game.

1001
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 1: I actually don't know who's gonna be the running backs

1002
00:48:34,040 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 1: for them in this one or playing some of these

1003
00:48:36,160 --> 00:48:40,920
Speaker 1: different positions. But Beamer has proven himself as a coach, Like,

1004
00:48:41,040 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 1: I trust that he's gonna cobble together some of these things.

1005
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:48,520
Speaker 1: And I also know that their special teams is gonna

1006
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:51,360
Speaker 1: be awesome no matter what. They had the best special

1007
00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:54,200
Speaker 1: teams in America this year. And that was something when

1008
00:48:54,239 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 1: when when he came in, you just sort of assume

1009
00:48:57,440 --> 00:48:59,680
Speaker 1: Beamer Ball was going to take off at some point.

1010
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 1: It did this year like full force. Beamer Ball is

1011
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:07,120
Speaker 1: here to stay. Now. They're doing all the things that

1012
00:49:07,160 --> 00:49:10,879
Speaker 1: we saw Frank do at Virginia Tech. The field positions there,

1013
00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:14,000
Speaker 1: the block and the kicks is there. All the situational

1014
00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:17,360
Speaker 1: football is there. Notre Dame better be ready for sixty

1015
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:21,439
Speaker 1: minutes a hell in special teams of like stuff off

1016
00:49:21,480 --> 00:49:24,279
Speaker 1: the edge of the I mean, you gotta be ready

1017
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:27,799
Speaker 1: for people screaming off there for the deflected kicks, all

1018
00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:31,600
Speaker 1: that different stuff. South Carolina is gonna benefit from the

1019
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:35,719
Speaker 1: field position game that this entire time and again, you

1020
00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:38,640
Speaker 1: just sort of just sort of bake in that that

1021
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:42,239
Speaker 1: South Carolina is gonna figure out some of the down

1022
00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:44,640
Speaker 1: the depth chart stuff at some of these positions where

1023
00:49:44,640 --> 00:49:47,239
Speaker 1: you're like, what's gonna happen there? And then at the

1024
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:50,520
Speaker 1: quarterback thing, whereas it seems like Notre Dame's gonna have

1025
00:49:50,560 --> 00:49:52,680
Speaker 1: to go with Angeli at quarterback, you have no idea

1026
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:54,640
Speaker 1: what you're gonna get there. You know, he's not gonna

1027
00:49:54,640 --> 00:49:56,800
Speaker 1: be able to throw to anybody because Notre Dame is

1028
00:49:56,840 --> 00:49:58,799
Speaker 1: way down the depth chart. At tight end, you go

1029
00:49:58,840 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 1: from a first round tight end in Mayer, so who knows,

1030
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:04,800
Speaker 1: and then they don't have anyone at receiver. Avery Davis

1031
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 1: was the only kid in the preseason and then he

1032
00:50:06,600 --> 00:50:08,960
Speaker 1: got injured, so they didn't have anyone at receiver. Now

1033
00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:11,040
Speaker 1: they don't have anybody at tight end, and they don't

1034
00:50:11,040 --> 00:50:13,439
Speaker 1: have a quarterback South Carolina at least as Spencer Ratler,

1035
00:50:13,480 --> 00:50:17,080
Speaker 1: who's playing awesome down the stretch. So I'm definitely going

1036
00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 1: with South Carolina. I'm gonna take those two points Mike

1037
00:50:19,600 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 1: moving on to our next one. Definitely not as marquee

1038
00:50:21,560 --> 00:50:23,040
Speaker 1: of a game here. We also don't have as many

1039
00:50:23,040 --> 00:50:26,640
Speaker 1: opt outs, although I'll mention just right out the gate Ohio.

1040
00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:31,000
Speaker 1: In this one, we have a also mentioned four to

1041
00:50:31,080 --> 00:50:34,880
Speaker 1: thirty kickoff on Friday, December thirtieth in the Arizona Ble Tucson, Arizona,

1042
00:50:34,960 --> 00:50:37,719
Speaker 1: Ohio laying one point two Wyoming forty two and a

1043
00:50:37,760 --> 00:50:40,840
Speaker 1: half point total Ohio. In this game out there starting

1044
00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:45,440
Speaker 1: quarterback Curtis Work, Wyoming though does have in Curtis Work

1045
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:48,960
Speaker 1: was the highest rateed PFF quarterback this year. They're dropping

1046
00:50:48,960 --> 00:50:52,400
Speaker 1: down to their backup CJ. Harris Wyoming, Ohio doesn't have

1047
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:56,440
Speaker 1: any other opt outs. Wyoming though does have a series

1048
00:50:56,480 --> 00:51:01,840
Speaker 1: of defections unfortunately at a couple of positions Titus where

1049
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:04,560
Speaker 1: they're starting running back in the transfer portal. They also

1050
00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:10,040
Speaker 1: had three backup running backs that have status things Joey

1051
00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:14,080
Speaker 1: Brash transfer portal at running back, and then two backup

1052
00:51:14,560 --> 00:51:18,800
Speaker 1: other backup running backs McNeely and James injured top wide

1053
00:51:18,800 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 1: receiver Cobbs Is in the transfer portal, one of their

1054
00:51:21,640 --> 00:51:24,839
Speaker 1: top edge rushers in the transfer portal, and then their

1055
00:51:24,920 --> 00:51:28,239
Speaker 1: top cornerback is in the transfer portal, Mike in this one,

1056
00:51:29,040 --> 00:51:31,040
Speaker 1: I'm off the radar game. Who do you like in

1057
00:51:31,080 --> 00:51:31,439
Speaker 1: this one?

1058
00:51:31,800 --> 00:51:34,560
Speaker 3: Well, you got a good offense that you have to

1059
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:36,359
Speaker 3: question how good they're going to be with out their

1060
00:51:36,360 --> 00:51:40,840
Speaker 3: starting quarterback. A horrible offense for Wyoming against an awful

1061
00:51:40,840 --> 00:51:45,520
Speaker 3: Ohio defense. It's a tough game. I'm going to take Ohio.

1062
00:51:46,440 --> 00:51:48,600
Speaker 3: They're five and zero in their last five games. Are

1063
00:51:48,600 --> 00:51:51,040
Speaker 3: the favorite that they're a good play, They're a consistent

1064
00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 3: play when it comes to being your favorite. All bets

1065
00:51:54,040 --> 00:51:55,919
Speaker 3: are off on this one though, because you just don't

1066
00:51:55,960 --> 00:51:58,200
Speaker 3: know what you're going to get offensively. But Wyoming can't

1067
00:51:58,239 --> 00:52:01,719
Speaker 3: put up any points, so you know, I would lean

1068
00:52:01,760 --> 00:52:04,759
Speaker 3: the under if you don't like the sides. You know,

1069
00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 3: mice one's essentially a pick them forty two and a half.

1070
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:09,960
Speaker 3: It's probably gonna come under that number. But give me

1071
00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:12,759
Speaker 3: Ohio and if you want to parlay it, take the under.

1072
00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:15,799
Speaker 1: Yes, this is one of the true coin flips of

1073
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:18,319
Speaker 1: the entire ball season. Like it you know in a

1074
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:20,120
Speaker 1: confidence pool is this was like the one that I

1075
00:52:20,160 --> 00:52:23,040
Speaker 1: had like one or two and you know, with a

1076
00:52:23,120 --> 00:52:26,400
Speaker 1: spread of one, my adjusted line on this game I

1077
00:52:26,440 --> 00:52:29,080
Speaker 1: have Wyoming fit. My system has Wyoming favor but it's

1078
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:32,040
Speaker 1: by zero point four points and the line is Ohio

1079
00:52:32,120 --> 00:52:34,719
Speaker 1: minus one, Like I don't see much value here. And

1080
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:37,319
Speaker 1: then on the total it's forty two point five. My

1081
00:52:37,440 --> 00:52:39,839
Speaker 1: total is forty four. So it's not like I see

1082
00:52:39,920 --> 00:52:43,239
Speaker 1: much value there. I do lean Wyoming just by the

1083
00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:46,560
Speaker 1: slightest of margins, you know, because Curtis Rourke. He was

1084
00:52:46,600 --> 00:52:49,280
Speaker 1: the reason that Ohio was doing so good during the season,

1085
00:52:49,360 --> 00:52:52,520
Speaker 1: and he was the highest grade at PFF quarterback and

1086
00:52:53,080 --> 00:52:53,799
Speaker 1: everything like that.

1087
00:52:53,840 --> 00:52:55,880
Speaker 2: And now you go down to a CJ.

1088
00:52:55,960 --> 00:52:58,279
Speaker 1: Harris who can throw, he can run a little bit,

1089
00:52:58,360 --> 00:53:00,520
Speaker 1: you know, and stuff like that. But a lot of

1090
00:53:00,520 --> 00:53:02,920
Speaker 1: the Ohio offense has been neuter. But then you look

1091
00:53:02,960 --> 00:53:06,360
Speaker 1: at the Wyoming team. They were a run for they

1092
00:53:06,400 --> 00:53:08,799
Speaker 1: were a run dominant team, and now their top four

1093
00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:11,719
Speaker 1: running backs are out. I don't know what's down the

1094
00:53:11,760 --> 00:53:15,080
Speaker 1: depth chart there. It's a total unknown. Are they gonna

1095
00:53:15,080 --> 00:53:17,799
Speaker 1: start throwing? I doubt Craig Bull is gonna do that,

1096
00:53:18,160 --> 00:53:20,799
Speaker 1: and then their top receivers out too, So even if

1097
00:53:20,840 --> 00:53:23,480
Speaker 1: they try to do that, you know, like you sort

1098
00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:24,279
Speaker 1: of toss up your.

1099
00:53:24,160 --> 00:53:26,400
Speaker 2: Hands, and then they play decent defense.

1100
00:53:26,440 --> 00:53:29,440
Speaker 1: But then their top edge rushers out, their top cornerbacks out.

1101
00:53:30,040 --> 00:53:33,120
Speaker 1: I do trust Craig ball in the postseason and as

1102
00:53:33,160 --> 00:53:36,480
Speaker 1: a coach overall, but like it's just to toss your

1103
00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:39,000
Speaker 1: your hands up kind of a game. So I don't

1104
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:40,960
Speaker 1: see much value either way. I don't really know what

1105
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:45,439
Speaker 1: I'm gonna get it. Again, this is a true degenerate game.

1106
00:53:45,520 --> 00:53:48,000
Speaker 1: It's a true you don't know what you're gonna get game,

1107
00:53:48,320 --> 00:53:50,920
Speaker 1: and Mike, you know, I'm definitely betting it anyway.

1108
00:53:51,239 --> 00:53:52,759
Speaker 4: Of course, you are moving on.

1109
00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:55,680
Speaker 1: To our last game on the docket for today, last

1110
00:53:55,680 --> 00:53:59,239
Speaker 1: game on Friday, December thirtieth, eight pm kickoff. We have

1111
00:53:59,360 --> 00:54:04,160
Speaker 1: the Orange Ball in Miami Gardens, Florida. Clemson live in

1112
00:54:04,200 --> 00:54:07,560
Speaker 1: the market, six point favorite against Tennessee. We have a

1113
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:09,880
Speaker 1: total on this game up sixty three and a half.

1114
00:54:10,080 --> 00:54:12,440
Speaker 1: A couple injuries and opt outs of note to get

1115
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:16,880
Speaker 1: to real quick Hendon Hooker Obviously, the very unfortunate injury

1116
00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:21,120
Speaker 1: that changed Tennessee's fortune probably changed the national implication that

1117
00:54:21,160 --> 00:54:25,280
Speaker 1: college football playoff and everything like that. Then it also changed,

1118
00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:28,200
Speaker 1: you know, the opt out situation everything for for Tennessee

1119
00:54:28,239 --> 00:54:32,200
Speaker 1: as well. Jalen Hyatt ends up opting out that may

1120
00:54:32,320 --> 00:54:35,480
Speaker 1: end up going in the first round. This stud slot receiver,

1121
00:54:35,560 --> 00:54:38,960
Speaker 1: the speed merchant. Then Cedric Tillman also opted out. You know,

1122
00:54:39,120 --> 00:54:41,279
Speaker 1: a kid that had struggled with with injuries during the

1123
00:54:41,320 --> 00:54:44,479
Speaker 1: season but probably could have ended up playing in this game.

1124
00:54:44,520 --> 00:54:46,960
Speaker 1: He has opted into the NFL draft. They had a

1125
00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:51,000
Speaker 1: couple other tertiary wide receivers off the bench that that

1126
00:54:51,160 --> 00:54:54,160
Speaker 1: went into the transfer portal. So Tennessee's wide receiver depth

1127
00:54:54,239 --> 00:54:59,279
Speaker 1: has also taken a shot Callaway and Holiday and then yeah,

1128
00:54:59,280 --> 00:55:02,520
Speaker 1: that's pretty mu a ship for the Tennessee side. Then Clemson,

1129
00:55:03,960 --> 00:55:07,040
Speaker 1: Clemson was one of the only was there any other team?

1130
00:55:07,200 --> 00:55:10,960
Speaker 1: Clemson and I actually upgraded their their quarterback position because

1131
00:55:10,960 --> 00:55:14,280
Speaker 1: of a transfer, but with Le transferring and then putting

1132
00:55:14,320 --> 00:55:18,719
Speaker 1: in uhh Klubnick or whatever, but you Augulele transferred. Uh,

1133
00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:21,080
Speaker 1: but that you know again they're they're upgrading a quarterback

1134
00:55:21,120 --> 00:55:24,160
Speaker 1: with Klubnick should have been starting in September. Uh. But

1135
00:55:24,239 --> 00:55:27,319
Speaker 1: then uh, let's see, oh, Miles Murphy opted into the

1136
00:55:27,320 --> 00:55:28,120
Speaker 1: the NFL draft.

1137
00:55:28,160 --> 00:55:28,600
Speaker 2: That hurts.

1138
00:55:28,960 --> 00:55:34,239
Speaker 1: Uh. Xavier Thomas uh, another edge rusher was injured before uh.

1139
00:55:34,440 --> 00:55:36,919
Speaker 1: Justin Foster had left the team earlier in the fall.

1140
00:55:37,080 --> 00:55:39,880
Speaker 1: Another edge rusher, so so they that the edge position,

1141
00:55:40,120 --> 00:55:43,960
Speaker 1: which earlier this season was just super duper deep. You

1142
00:55:44,000 --> 00:55:47,040
Speaker 1: know that the depth is way shallower there now. And

1143
00:55:47,080 --> 00:55:49,880
Speaker 1: then uh, Trenton Simpson was another opt out on the

1144
00:55:49,880 --> 00:55:53,799
Speaker 1: Clemson side, and fred Davis, uh the third or Fred

1145
00:55:53,840 --> 00:55:57,120
Speaker 1: Davis the second is in the transfer portal the the cornerback,

1146
00:55:57,160 --> 00:55:59,480
Speaker 1: and Malcolm Green another cornerback is injured.

1147
00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:01,560
Speaker 2: Mike in Clemson Tennessee, who do you like?

1148
00:56:02,000 --> 00:56:03,920
Speaker 3: You know, Tennessee was a good team against the spread

1149
00:56:03,960 --> 00:56:06,359
Speaker 3: all season long nine and three, but that was with

1150
00:56:06,760 --> 00:56:09,600
Speaker 3: their offense. The offense is going to take a big

1151
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:14,080
Speaker 3: drop down here. I don't believe in Joe Milton. I

1152
00:56:14,080 --> 00:56:16,319
Speaker 3: don't believe in you know, Bo McCoy is a good

1153
00:56:16,320 --> 00:56:18,440
Speaker 3: wide receiver, but the depth of wide receiver has kind

1154
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:23,759
Speaker 3: of shot Clemson's culture, Dabbo culture, Everything's culture. You know,

1155
00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:26,359
Speaker 3: Miles Murphy broken up that he has to opt out.

1156
00:56:26,440 --> 00:56:28,920
Speaker 3: Trentson broken up that they opt out. You know, Brian

1157
00:56:28,960 --> 00:56:30,799
Speaker 3: Bersey looks like he's going to play in this game,

1158
00:56:31,120 --> 00:56:33,160
Speaker 3: although I think that decision is still sort of pending,

1159
00:56:33,880 --> 00:56:36,040
Speaker 3: but that it comes down to the quarterback. They play

1160
00:56:36,080 --> 00:56:39,120
Speaker 3: harder for Clipman. They play as a team that are

1161
00:56:39,200 --> 00:56:42,239
Speaker 3: with will Shipley still is an effective running back. But

1162
00:56:42,320 --> 00:56:44,399
Speaker 3: this is a team that when you saw Climman come

1163
00:56:44,440 --> 00:56:48,000
Speaker 3: in when things were struggling for them, and I have

1164
00:56:48,120 --> 00:56:49,040
Speaker 3: no idea why.

1165
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:52,279
Speaker 4: He didn't play in the South Carolina game, but.

1166
00:56:52,239 --> 00:56:54,839
Speaker 3: When he came against Syracuse, he didn't throw the ball

1167
00:56:54,880 --> 00:56:57,600
Speaker 3: a lot, didn't have to, but the energy was different.

1168
00:56:57,640 --> 00:56:59,920
Speaker 4: You know, you watch the Jets game, and I know

1169
00:57:00,160 --> 00:57:01,560
Speaker 4: this is being taped on Friday.

1170
00:57:01,239 --> 00:57:03,560
Speaker 3: But it you know, Dack Wilson goes out all of

1171
00:57:03,600 --> 00:57:06,640
Speaker 3: a sudden, the team plays harder. Uh, DJ's gone. This

1172
00:57:06,680 --> 00:57:09,040
Speaker 3: team is gonna play harder. So gimme Clemson to cover here.

1173
00:57:09,800 --> 00:57:12,720
Speaker 3: I don't like the over. I think it's gonna come under.

1174
00:57:12,560 --> 00:57:17,240
Speaker 1: That so Well said, I like I so Well said. Uh,

1175
00:57:17,840 --> 00:57:21,240
Speaker 1: totally different team. When when Kluban came in, it was

1176
00:57:21,280 --> 00:57:25,920
Speaker 1: like night and day, right, and and with with Hooker

1177
00:57:26,000 --> 00:57:28,600
Speaker 1: to Milton, it's almost night and day the other way,

1178
00:57:28,680 --> 00:57:31,000
Speaker 1: and you didn't totally get to see it, you know,

1179
00:57:31,040 --> 00:57:34,240
Speaker 1: with the was it the Vanderbilt game or whatever, But uh,

1180
00:57:34,560 --> 00:57:36,960
Speaker 1: Milton is a It's just a different deal than with

1181
00:57:37,080 --> 00:57:41,040
Speaker 1: Hendon Hooker. Milton has the physical ability, but he makes

1182
00:57:41,120 --> 00:57:44,400
Speaker 1: wonky decisions and he doesn't have the accuracy or placement

1183
00:57:44,840 --> 00:57:48,320
Speaker 1: that is going to manifest against the talented defense. And

1184
00:57:48,480 --> 00:57:53,520
Speaker 1: on the Clemson side, Uh you mentioned brise kJ, Henry

1185
00:57:53,920 --> 00:57:59,840
Speaker 1: uh MSCA and Davis Mike you mentioned they're like right

1186
00:57:59,880 --> 00:58:02,440
Speaker 1: now now they're practicing. They've all said that they planned

1187
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:04,440
Speaker 1: to play in the game. It could change, you know,

1188
00:58:04,640 --> 00:58:06,800
Speaker 1: like a day or two before. We've seen that, like

1189
00:58:06,880 --> 00:58:08,560
Speaker 1: mc Dwayne McBride for UA B.

1190
00:58:09,040 --> 00:58:09,440
Speaker 2: There's been a.

1191
00:58:09,440 --> 00:58:12,120
Speaker 1: Couple of examples earlier in ballseason where they said one

1192
00:58:12,160 --> 00:58:14,360
Speaker 1: thing and then like the day before the day even

1193
00:58:14,400 --> 00:58:16,800
Speaker 1: the day of McBride he got off the plane in

1194
00:58:16,800 --> 00:58:18,760
Speaker 1: the Bahamas, then he's like, yeah, I'm not playing, So

1195
00:58:19,000 --> 00:58:21,080
Speaker 1: like you never know, like after we get done recording.

1196
00:58:21,120 --> 00:58:22,800
Speaker 1: But those guys at least they all say that that

1197
00:58:22,800 --> 00:58:25,960
Speaker 1: that they're gonna play Clemson if they're at you know,

1198
00:58:26,120 --> 00:58:28,680
Speaker 1: if those guys all end up playing, that's a bad

1199
00:58:28,720 --> 00:58:32,160
Speaker 1: situation for Joe Milton on you know, on on that side,

1200
00:58:32,440 --> 00:58:37,120
Speaker 1: especially if Tennessee's UH, with how depreciated their wide receiver

1201
00:58:37,200 --> 00:58:40,000
Speaker 1: room is gonna end up being without Hyatt and with

1202
00:58:40,000 --> 00:58:43,560
Speaker 1: without Tillman, et cetera, et cetera. I expect that Clemson

1203
00:58:43,600 --> 00:58:45,440
Speaker 1: will be able to shut off the lights there. And

1204
00:58:45,480 --> 00:58:49,080
Speaker 1: then then Klubnick with with the Clemson offense with Will Shipley,

1205
00:58:49,400 --> 00:58:53,960
Speaker 1: like you mentioned, Tennessee's pass defense even when it was

1206
00:58:54,000 --> 00:58:57,160
Speaker 1: you know, have full strength whatever this season, anybody could

1207
00:58:57,160 --> 00:59:00,800
Speaker 1: throw on Tennessee. Spender Ratler was in the tank all

1208
00:59:00,840 --> 00:59:04,960
Speaker 1: season long. All he needed the tonic that Spencer Ratler

1209
00:59:05,000 --> 00:59:07,720
Speaker 1: needed to turn back the clock to freshman year with

1210
00:59:07,760 --> 00:59:11,240
Speaker 1: Lincoln Riley was to face the Tennessee pass defense. All

1211
00:59:11,280 --> 00:59:17,280
Speaker 1: of a sudden he was Spencer Ratler again. So thrown Well, okay,

1212
00:59:17,840 --> 00:59:21,960
Speaker 1: Bill Levis, nothing, nothing can turn around Will Lemison's.

1213
00:59:21,560 --> 00:59:23,040
Speaker 4: Career, but nobody else can.

1214
00:59:23,640 --> 00:59:26,800
Speaker 3: They can't stop anybody, even a freshman quarterback like club Nick.

1215
00:59:27,040 --> 00:59:28,880
Speaker 4: That's gonna have the offense a little dumb down. They

1216
00:59:28,880 --> 00:59:29,320
Speaker 4: can't stop.

1217
00:59:29,440 --> 00:59:34,120
Speaker 1: You're right exactly, I'm going with Clemson here. Klutnick should

1218
00:59:34,120 --> 00:59:37,040
Speaker 1: have been starting from the very beginning. The Klubnik era

1219
00:59:37,280 --> 00:59:40,360
Speaker 1: begins with a bank. Clemson's gonna win that game by

1220
00:59:40,480 --> 00:59:43,480
Speaker 1: double digits. Guys, That is all the time that we

1221
00:59:43,560 --> 00:59:46,440
Speaker 1: have for today. This is the second to the last

1222
00:59:46,480 --> 00:59:49,120
Speaker 1: podcast that me and Mike Ferrell are doing a special

1223
00:59:49,120 --> 00:59:52,400
Speaker 1: Bowl podcast on the Betting FROs feed. So join us

1224
00:59:52,440 --> 00:59:54,480
Speaker 1: for the last one that we're gonna do, which is

1225
00:59:54,480 --> 00:59:56,960
Speaker 1: gonna come off a little bit before the new year,

1226
00:59:57,000 --> 00:59:59,440
Speaker 1: for the last of the Bowl games that we're gonna do.

1227
01:00:00,880 --> 01:00:04,520
Speaker 1: Thank you for joining us for this one. For Mike Farrell,

1228
01:00:04,600 --> 01:00:07,000
Speaker 1: I'm thorn Ice from for Betting Pros. Good luck with

1229
01:00:07,040 --> 01:00:10,840
Speaker 1: your bets, enjoy the rest of the bowl games and

1230
01:00:10,920 --> 01:00:12,240
Speaker 1: we'll see you next time.