WEBVTT - Trump's Tariff Turmoil 0:00:03.360 --> 0:00:07.080 Welcome to a little special edition of the Chuck Podcast, 0:00:07.160 --> 0:00:11.280 specifically for my YouTube subscribers. And so this is what 0:00:12.119 --> 0:00:15.120 I want to deal with this morning, on this Friday morning, 0:00:15.160 --> 0:00:17.079 which is a question I've already been getting over the 0:00:17.160 --> 0:00:20.560 last forty twenty four hours, which is simply what do 0:00:20.640 --> 0:00:25.639 all these tariffs mean for us politically? So look, here's 0:00:25.680 --> 0:00:28.319 what we do know at the moment. This is not 0:00:28.800 --> 0:00:30.720 going to go This does not look like it's going 0:00:30.760 --> 0:00:34.160 to go very well. You have this kind of economic 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:37.600 shock to the system, this kind of you know, record 0:00:37.640 --> 0:00:41.479 breaking balls in the stock market. It's the type of 0:00:41.520 --> 0:00:44.000 story that everybody pays attention to. This is not the 0:00:44.040 --> 0:00:46.159 type of stories that it's just people that are invested 0:00:46.159 --> 0:00:48.760 in the stock market, or just wealthy people invested in 0:00:48.760 --> 0:00:51.440 the stock market. This is a global story. This is 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:57.120 arguably the lead story in every major news organization around 0:00:57.200 --> 0:01:03.640 the world because these tariffs have impacted everybody. So look, 0:01:03.800 --> 0:01:07.520 I think a few things here that we both overestimated 0:01:07.560 --> 0:01:10.920 with Trump and underestimated with Trump. And it has to 0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:14.399 do with the idea that he's a transactional guy. And 0:01:14.440 --> 0:01:16.880 the assumption was and frankly, this is what many in 0:01:16.880 --> 0:01:20.160 the business community because Donald Trump campaigned on this, he 0:01:20.200 --> 0:01:22.319 said he was going to do this. He is believed 0:01:22.360 --> 0:01:25.440 in tariffs. It goes back to nineteen eighty seven. Back 0:01:25.440 --> 0:01:28.039 in nineteen eighty seven, when Roger Stone was trying to 0:01:28.080 --> 0:01:32.760 help create Donald Trump the politician, Donald Trump bought a 0:01:32.840 --> 0:01:34.559 full page ad in the New York Times. I believe 0:01:34.600 --> 0:01:36.039 it was in New York Times, maybe been the Post 0:01:36.080 --> 0:01:38.440 Times in journal actually, but it was definitely a full 0:01:38.480 --> 0:01:42.920 page ad that talked about how Japan was ripping off 0:01:42.959 --> 0:01:46.240 America and that Japan our trade deficit, and you know, 0:01:46.280 --> 0:01:50.680 we had idiot negotiators. If you recall nineteen eighty seven, 0:01:50.720 --> 0:01:56.320 Ronald Reagan was president, so he in some ways, Donald Trump, 0:01:56.360 --> 0:01:59.000 who doesn't have much of an ideology, right he was 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:01.840 one time pro jo and now he's pro life and 0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:05.680 all these things. If there's one issue has been consistent on, 0:02:05.800 --> 0:02:11.200 it's this belief that the American economy should and should 0:02:11.200 --> 0:02:16.200 all be sort of within the borders of America. So 0:02:16.400 --> 0:02:19.040 he does I think this is one of his actual 0:02:19.160 --> 0:02:23.200 core beliefs, that this is the way the system should work, 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:26.800 that there should be more manufacturing in the country, that 0:02:26.840 --> 0:02:30.280 if you have that that and he sees everything through 0:02:30.320 --> 0:02:34.000 this binary way, there's winners and losers, and America is 0:02:34.040 --> 0:02:38.480 the winner, so therefore they shouldn't have trade deficits with anybody. 0:02:38.639 --> 0:02:41.600 People should have trade deficits with America, but it shouldn't 0:02:41.600 --> 0:02:45.680 be the other way around. So he's somebody that doesn't 0:02:45.760 --> 0:02:49.280 really you know. If I were, if I were a critic, 0:02:49.320 --> 0:02:53.080 I'd say he doesn't understand the global economy. But he 0:02:53.160 --> 0:02:59.400 certainly doesn't. I would say he doesn't really, he doesn't 0:02:59.440 --> 0:03:03.760 buy in to this idea that the global economy has 0:03:03.760 --> 0:03:06.280 been a success. I for the life of me, I 0:03:06.320 --> 0:03:09.239 don't see how people don't look why most people don't 0:03:09.320 --> 0:03:12.519 understand that if you essentially look from post World War 0:03:12.520 --> 0:03:17.160 two to now, America has written the rules for the 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:22.840 global economy and it has benefited America immensely. Still the 0:03:22.880 --> 0:03:26.120 wealthiest nation still, you know, and I say little things. 0:03:26.360 --> 0:03:30.040 Go to any other country and ask yourself if you'd 0:03:30.120 --> 0:03:33.160 rather live there or hear when it comes to simple 0:03:33.200 --> 0:03:36.920 things like the mail service or the quality of toilet paper, 0:03:37.360 --> 0:03:41.160 never mind the availability of goods and services, the availability 0:03:41.160 --> 0:03:44.200 the fact that we do have a lot more cheap 0:03:44.240 --> 0:03:46.880 goods available to us. Why do I grew up in Miami, 0:03:48.000 --> 0:03:50.280 people used to fly in from other countries in order 0:03:50.360 --> 0:03:54.840 to simply go shopping in the United States. Okay, is 0:03:55.200 --> 0:03:58.920 this has been what the global economy has done for America. 0:03:59.040 --> 0:04:01.680 So I know it's not cool to be for the 0:04:01.680 --> 0:04:04.520 status quo these days. Right, everybody wants to disrupt and 0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:07.800 change and disrupt and change. But this is one disruption 0:04:08.400 --> 0:04:10.440 that doesn't make a lot of sense because one could 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:15.240 argue that since America has essentially decided that the cause 0:04:15.280 --> 0:04:17.880 of World War two was that we didn't have enough 0:04:18.200 --> 0:04:21.159 the economic ties with each other, and the more economic 0:04:21.160 --> 0:04:22.760 ties you have, that less likely you're going to fight 0:04:22.800 --> 0:04:26.080 each other. And so guess what. The last time we 0:04:26.120 --> 0:04:29.159 went through this tariff business, it was followed by World 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:33.360 War Two, and there's plenty of evidence that it was 0:04:33.400 --> 0:04:38.960 a pretty direct link. The nineteen twenty nine stock market 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:43.160 crash essentially was the beginning of the collapse of the 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:47.560 German economy was already fragile. It sort of accelerated the 0:04:47.560 --> 0:04:50.760 collapse of the German economy, which of course accelerated the 0:04:50.839 --> 0:04:54.040 rise of Adolf Hitler. And I don't think I need 0:04:54.080 --> 0:04:57.080 to tell you what happened after he took over Germany. 0:04:57.360 --> 0:05:01.880 So The point is is that this the American leadership 0:05:01.960 --> 0:05:05.200 post World War Two concluded we can't have this type. 0:05:05.320 --> 0:05:11.120 So what was born all of these multi national multilateral organizations, 0:05:11.160 --> 0:05:14.760 whether it's NATO, the IMF, all of these things, and 0:05:15.720 --> 0:05:19.800 it has been a success. We went nearly eighty years 0:05:19.800 --> 0:05:24.800 without a war in Europe essentially, or almost eighty years. 0:05:24.839 --> 0:05:28.080 There was the Balkan War. We can't ignore that, and 0:05:28.160 --> 0:05:31.120 obviously we have the war now with Ukraine. But the 0:05:31.160 --> 0:05:33.559 fact of the matter has been relative peace on Europe, 0:05:33.760 --> 0:05:39.000 the longest arguably period of peace in Europe if for 0:05:39.040 --> 0:05:42.520 a thousand years, if you want a nitpick on this. 0:05:43.080 --> 0:05:48.040 So this is a radical change and it isn't going 0:05:48.120 --> 0:05:51.760 to get better overnight. So what does this mean politically? 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:56.080 It's already pretty clear to me that most elected Republicans, 0:05:56.400 --> 0:06:00.880 if they could vote without fear of Donald Trump, would 0:06:00.880 --> 0:06:05.119 take back tariff authority tomorrow. You're already seeing some Senate 0:06:05.160 --> 0:06:08.200 Republicans Chuck Grassley is introduced to bill with Maria Cantwell 0:06:08.600 --> 0:06:11.000 that I think we'll have majority support, probably not yet 0:06:11.080 --> 0:06:15.200 sixty votes, but trust me, it'll get there. But let's 0:06:15.200 --> 0:06:19.640 talk realistically. What do I how should you watch the 0:06:19.680 --> 0:06:24.599 next eighteen months, essentially between now and the midterms, because 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:26.599 if there is a change in control of either house 0:06:26.640 --> 0:06:30.000 in Congress the midterms, I do think these teriffs will 0:06:30.000 --> 0:06:34.760 go away almost immediately. So if let's make this, I 0:06:35.160 --> 0:06:37.359 believe right now, if there were a Democratic House and 0:06:37.400 --> 0:06:42.760 a Republican Senate that they would collectively grab the tariff 0:06:42.800 --> 0:06:47.000 keys away from Donald Trump. And so the likelihood of 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:50.279 a Democratic House and a Republican senate's pretty high come 0:06:50.360 --> 0:06:53.120 January of twenty twenty seven. But between now and then, 0:06:53.160 --> 0:06:54.919 the question is would there be a majority in the 0:06:55.000 --> 0:06:57.280 House and a majority in the Senate to do this 0:06:57.440 --> 0:06:59.440 with the Republicans in charge of the House. In the 0:06:59.480 --> 0:07:02.479 answer to that, that is likely. No. There is a 0:07:02.520 --> 0:07:06.000 big distinction between House Republicans and Senate Republicans. House Republicans 0:07:06.000 --> 0:07:09.720 are more reliant on the base of Donald Trump's party. 0:07:09.880 --> 0:07:12.680 They're more reliant on Donald Trump, and they're frankly, you know, 0:07:12.920 --> 0:07:17.400 their political careers would be dead if Donald Trump decided 0:07:17.440 --> 0:07:21.880 to kill their careers. I'm not saying Senate Republicans aren't 0:07:22.080 --> 0:07:26.080 fragile to potential threats from the Donald Trump base, but 0:07:27.320 --> 0:07:29.720 there's certainly a bit more inoculated and many of them 0:07:30.200 --> 0:07:32.400 don't have to run in twenty six. Not all of 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:34.160 them have to be on the ballot in twenty six, 0:07:34.720 --> 0:07:36.400 So there's a little bit In fact, many of them 0:07:36.440 --> 0:07:38.600 won't be on the ballot ever again with Donald Trump 0:07:38.720 --> 0:07:41.680 or with Donald Trump as president, So there's a little 0:07:41.760 --> 0:07:46.480 bit more security that they have in their minds to 0:07:46.640 --> 0:07:50.560 try to separate themselves from Trump. And frankly, even if 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:52.880 you are on the ballot in twenty six, senators are 0:07:52.880 --> 0:07:56.560 dealing with a general election electorate. Okay, so a guy 0:07:56.640 --> 0:07:58.920 like Tom Tillis may be vulnerable to a Trump primary. 0:07:59.000 --> 0:08:01.640 Challenge of the matter is he only wins a reelection 0:08:01.720 --> 0:08:03.240 if he can figure out how to win the middle 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:06.080 and on this tariff business, which really hurts a state 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:10.160 like North Carolina. To he's going to have to sit 0:08:10.200 --> 0:08:12.680 here and walk a line. He doesn't want to antagonize 0:08:12.680 --> 0:08:14.960 Trump because I think he would struggle in a primary 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:18.240 in North Carolina. And at the same time, you know, 0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:20.600 if somebody to is right beat him in a primary, 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:22.200 I don't think that person can win a general election 0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:25.680 in these midterms of North Carolina. So that's just one example. 0:08:25.720 --> 0:08:28.720 But the point is this is what I would watch 0:08:28.800 --> 0:08:32.600 for over the next sort of three to six months. 0:08:33.240 --> 0:08:37.040 I think the don't assume that Donald Trump is negotiating 0:08:37.040 --> 0:08:40.200 with countries. Do I think some countries will get some 0:08:40.360 --> 0:08:44.480 negotiated reprieve. Yes, I think the UK will not much. 0:08:44.480 --> 0:08:47.440 Anybody else in Europe, anybody aligned with the EU know, 0:08:47.520 --> 0:08:50.600 but I think the UK, because of Brexit, he will 0:08:50.640 --> 0:08:52.959 be more inclined to do a deal there. I think 0:08:53.040 --> 0:08:54.520 he's likely to do a one on one deal with 0:08:54.600 --> 0:09:01.120 Japan because the Japanese have basically been courting him very carefully. 0:09:01.120 --> 0:09:05.480 They've been obsessed with courting him multiple leaders, certainly this 0:09:05.559 --> 0:09:09.240 ruling party has, and I think he is likely to 0:09:09.400 --> 0:09:12.640 reward them with some sort of side deal. But for 0:09:12.679 --> 0:09:16.000 the most part, I think he believes this in his bones, 0:09:16.200 --> 0:09:17.600 and so I don't think there's going to be a 0:09:17.640 --> 0:09:21.000 ton of reprieve. So what does that mean? The markets 0:09:21.040 --> 0:09:23.640 are still going to be volatile, People are not going 0:09:23.720 --> 0:09:27.920 to be happy. Remember who's watching the stock market the 0:09:27.960 --> 0:09:31.440 most these days, it's retirees. What's one other thing about 0:09:31.480 --> 0:09:36.560 retirees that people forget about. They vote, right, the person 0:09:36.600 --> 0:09:39.319 most likely to vote in a special or election or 0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:41.960 a midterm election is somebody over the age of fifty 0:09:42.360 --> 0:09:46.000 they are the most likely voter, so and right now 0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:49.000 they're the ones most sensitive to a loss in value. 0:09:49.000 --> 0:09:52.400 Baby Boomers, people in their thirties and forties, you know, 0:09:52.480 --> 0:09:55.439 you can even look at this moment, Oh, maybe there's 0:09:55.480 --> 0:09:58.120 a buying opportunity. You know, you're still invested for the 0:09:58.160 --> 0:10:01.000 long term ten years, fifteen years, touch in your retirement, 0:10:01.640 --> 0:10:04.280 you might have more patience for this. But if you're 0:10:04.320 --> 0:10:09.040 in your fifties, sixties, or seventies, aka the people who 0:10:09.160 --> 0:10:11.440 are the most likely voter and the people the most 0:10:11.480 --> 0:10:14.040 likely to show up, you're going to be very sensitive 0:10:14.080 --> 0:10:17.679 to these market disruptions. So I think you're going to 0:10:18.840 --> 0:10:21.040 likely to see that this is sort of I would. 0:10:21.200 --> 0:10:23.679 I think this is going to be what the Afghanistan 0:10:23.760 --> 0:10:27.480 withdrawal was to Joe Biden, is what this tariff bomb 0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:31.120 that Donald Trump set off earlier this week is going 0:10:31.160 --> 0:10:34.240 to be for him. That Afghanistan withdrawal for Joe Biden 0:10:34.320 --> 0:10:38.000 dropped his approval rating anywhere below forty five somewhere between. 0:10:38.400 --> 0:10:40.360 You know, sometimes could get as low as thirty eight. 0:10:40.679 --> 0:10:43.840 He never got above forty five again for the rest 0:10:43.840 --> 0:10:46.760 of his presence. At this point, I don't expect Donald 0:10:46.800 --> 0:10:48.840 Trump to get above forty four or forty five for 0:10:48.880 --> 0:10:51.480 the rest of his presidency because of this tariff stuff. 0:10:51.800 --> 0:10:54.679 So this is likely to make him less popular, doesn't 0:10:54.679 --> 0:10:56.600 mean he's going to be less popular among the MAGA base. 0:10:57.640 --> 0:11:00.679 In fact, you see, you know, he's got his propaganda 0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:05.040 machine going his media. The sort of the supportive folks 0:11:05.040 --> 0:11:07.040 of his in the media are sort of putting their 0:11:07.080 --> 0:11:10.640 blinders on and pretending that this is you know, he's 0:11:10.679 --> 0:11:16.200 got some brilliant plan here, but it's it's it's going 0:11:16.280 --> 0:11:19.720 to become toxic. You're going to have I think a 0:11:19.720 --> 0:11:24.080 few things to watch for include House Republicans who decide 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:26.800 not to seek reelection. Some of them may decide I'm 0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:28.320 going to run for governor, I'm going to run for 0:11:28.320 --> 0:11:30.319 the Senate, but I'm not going to run for the House, 0:11:30.360 --> 0:11:32.439 because I think a House Republican is going to be 0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:35.520 a lot more vulnerable in this environment than a Senate Republican. 0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:38.079 Senate Republican might be able to inoculate themselves some you've 0:11:38.080 --> 0:11:40.120 already seen a few of them break away when you 0:11:40.160 --> 0:11:43.720 had ran Paul Mitch McConnell, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins vote 0:11:43.880 --> 0:11:47.360 with the Democrats on that, on the on the Canadian tariffs, 0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:52.000 So I think you will have some some that do that. 0:11:53.960 --> 0:11:57.200 If you start seeing the Republican retirements get into the 0:11:57.200 --> 0:12:03.360 double digits, it almost will be handing the Democrats control 0:12:03.520 --> 0:12:05.320 of the House. And I think that will be something 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:08.880 to watch for because I think you look, we already 0:12:08.920 --> 0:12:13.000 saw in these Monday elections that the Republican base is 0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:15.400 not that engaged. At least Donald Trump's base is not 0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:18.720 engaged enough to win these elections, certainly not in Wisconsin. 0:12:19.240 --> 0:12:22.720 We saw a place like a Scanbia County in Florida 0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:27.520 vote for a Democrat for Congress. For the first time 0:12:28.520 --> 0:12:31.120 since two thousand and six has a Scambia County supported 0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:33.000 a Democrat either for Congress, do you a Senate or 0:12:33.000 --> 0:12:37.400 the presidency. Why is that significant? Well, it's Scambia County 0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:43.440 is home to Pensacola, a naval base. It's got probably 0:12:43.480 --> 0:12:47.160 the largest cohort of federal government workers or federal government 0:12:47.200 --> 0:12:50.880 adjacent workers in the state of Florida because of all 0:12:51.040 --> 0:12:55.480 the adjacent aspects that come with a major naval base 0:12:55.559 --> 0:13:01.520 like the one in Pensacola. Already see the vulnerability and 0:13:01.559 --> 0:13:05.200 that's just a reaction to all of the all of 0:13:05.240 --> 0:13:07.240 the cuts that have been taking place due to DOGE, 0:13:07.679 --> 0:13:10.440 and certainly some of this comfort onto that now you 0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:13.200 have this economy that's going to hit people right in 0:13:13.240 --> 0:13:15.920 the pocketbooks. I mean, the dollar store is going to 0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:18.240 turn into the ten dollar store. You know, they're not 0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:20.600 going to be able to find things that cost a dollar. 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:24.120 That's going to hit a lot of Trump voters. That's 0:13:24.160 --> 0:13:29.640 going to hit a lot of red districts. So I 0:13:29.679 --> 0:13:32.360 don't think he's going to back down. I think the 0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:35.000 thing that what we all thought about Donald Trump, that 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:37.439 he was transactional, that the markets would be a guardrail. 0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:40.160 I think we now need to realize that this third 0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:44.280 term stuff is such bs. He's more Thelma Louise here. 0:13:44.640 --> 0:13:47.600 He's got nothing to lose in his mind. He actually 0:13:47.720 --> 0:13:49.920 this might be the one thing he has conviction about, 0:13:50.559 --> 0:13:54.520 and he I think has a higher pain tolerance for 0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:58.880 the market chile rations, a higher pain tolerance for maybe 0:13:59.080 --> 0:14:02.600 rich people calling him to complain than the average politician. 0:14:03.960 --> 0:14:08.200 The average politician, Republican or Democrat, has their largest donor 0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:11.280 on speed dial on their cell phone. So I think 0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:13.760 members of Congress are going to be hearing, not just 0:14:13.760 --> 0:14:16.720 from their constituents with fault and gray phone calls into 0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:19.640 the congressional offices, but the members of Congress themselves are 0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:22.000 going to hear from their biggest supporters, who are all 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:26.200 going to look at their stock portfolios and panic. So 0:14:29.320 --> 0:14:33.040 it is hard to see how this gets better for 0:14:33.200 --> 0:14:36.400 Republicans before now and the midterms. And I know we 0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:38.320 consider and say this is a long way to go, 0:14:38.680 --> 0:14:42.560 but this is something, this severing of ties with so 0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:46.880 many allies. I got to read you this one quote 0:14:46.960 --> 0:14:50.720 here from the Canadian Prime Minister, which is just an 0:14:50.760 --> 0:14:55.120 astonishing quote, but it's pretty important. This is the current 0:14:55.160 --> 0:14:58.280 Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, and he said the following 0:14:58.960 --> 0:15:01.240 the eighty year period when the United States embraced the 0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:04.480 Mannal of global economic leadership, when it forged alliances rooted 0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:07.320 in trust, in mutual respect, and champion the free and 0:15:07.400 --> 0:15:10.840 open exchange of goods and services is over. While this 0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:15.440 is a tragedy, it is also the new reality. And 0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:17.800 that's why I don't think I think Trump had the 0:15:17.920 --> 0:15:23.120 miscon conception that somehow America was essentially an essential economy 0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:27.359 and that there's just no way that countries wouldn't essentially 0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:32.160 change their economic behavior to appease the United States. This 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:34.320 is providing a huge opening for China. We now have 0:15:34.360 --> 0:15:37.600 two of our closest Asian economic allies, Japan and South Korea, 0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:40.080 who are coordinating with the Chinese on how to respond 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:43.080 to the US tariffs. We have the Canadians figuring out 0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:46.400 with the EU how to coordinate. We have now thrown 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:49.360 people countries that we thought were allies of the United 0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:52.480 States into the arms of China, which seems to be 0:15:52.720 --> 0:15:57.680 an absolute you know, the unintended consequence that nobody should 0:15:57.720 --> 0:16:02.920 want left or right. I mean, if we lose our 0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:08.560 alliances to our chief economic and frankly cultural rival for 0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:13.160 global supremacy, what have we done? You know, we're not 0:16:13.200 --> 0:16:14.440 going to like that. So that's why, you know I 0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:16.360 always say to people who don't want America to be 0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:19.520 the beat cop, I said, Okay, if America is not 0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:22.960 the world's policeman, somebody will be. And you're not going 0:16:23.040 --> 0:16:25.480 to like any other country being the world's cop. You're 0:16:25.480 --> 0:16:27.360 going to be a lot happier for the world's cop. 0:16:27.840 --> 0:16:31.200 And we're just seating this turf we are giving China 0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:36.400 and opening all around the world with countries that were 0:16:36.400 --> 0:16:39.200 so aligned with US, I never thought those bonds would 0:16:39.200 --> 0:16:44.320 be shaken. So look, I think this is a Republican 0:16:44.360 --> 0:16:47.200 Party that's quoting disaster. I'm going to quote Ran Paul, 0:16:47.320 --> 0:16:49.640 who made a various stute point a couple nights ago. 0:16:49.800 --> 0:16:52.000 Ran Paul one of the few Republican senators who's been 0:16:52.800 --> 0:16:55.960 publicly pushing back against these tariffs. This is his sort 0:16:55.960 --> 0:16:59.840 of core libertarianism in him. A libertarian doesn't want any 0:16:59.880 --> 0:17:04.560 time gariffs on anything. But he pointed out a very 0:17:04.560 --> 0:17:07.840 important fact. The Republican Party pre World War Two was 0:17:08.840 --> 0:17:11.800 very similar to the current Republican Party of today, a 0:17:11.800 --> 0:17:14.480 bit isolationist. It was the party of business, and back 0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:18.400 then in the nineteen tens, twenties, and thirties, America's businesses 0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:22.080 were afraid of foreign competition, and so they did want 0:17:23.000 --> 0:17:27.040 tariffs because it protected their businesses, it protected their wealth. 0:17:27.440 --> 0:17:30.480 This is not how the economy works anymore. This is 0:17:30.480 --> 0:17:36.280 the equivalent of Donald Trump trying to somehow manufacture the 0:17:36.320 --> 0:17:39.320 ice block industry again. You know, there was the ice 0:17:39.320 --> 0:17:41.640 block industry used to be a big deal in Europe 0:17:42.359 --> 0:17:45.320 until we figured out refrigeration and we didn't need blocks 0:17:45.359 --> 0:17:48.359 of ice to cool our food. And this is the 0:17:48.440 --> 0:17:51.879 equivalent of trying to turn back the clock to an 0:17:51.920 --> 0:17:54.920 era that doesn't exist. You know, we put those tariffs 0:17:54.960 --> 0:17:57.639 in when we were we weren't using airplanes for cargo. 0:17:57.720 --> 0:18:01.680 Then we were using ships and certainly in this country trade. 0:18:01.760 --> 0:18:05.840 So it is there's no part of this that makes sense. 0:18:06.480 --> 0:18:08.399 And trying to look back and say this was some 0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:11.600 golden age, it wasn't a golden age. We had extreme 0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:15.400 poverty back in the late nineteenth century, early twentieth century, 0:18:15.640 --> 0:18:19.520 we had child labor issues, we had terrible work conditions. 0:18:19.560 --> 0:18:23.680 So I'm not sure what part of that era of business, 0:18:23.720 --> 0:18:26.640 what part of that era of the economy, is actually 0:18:26.680 --> 0:18:32.040 something to wish we had again. So you know, this 0:18:32.320 --> 0:18:35.760 is and you know what happened after that. The Republican 0:18:35.800 --> 0:18:39.080 Party wasn't trusted with control of the legislative branch for 0:18:39.160 --> 0:18:44.240 nearly sixty years. Sixty years. You know, they had a 0:18:44.280 --> 0:18:46.760 brief period where they controlled the House the two elections 0:18:46.760 --> 0:18:49.600 in the fifties thanks to the popularity of Dwight Eisenhower, 0:18:50.000 --> 0:18:53.120 but that went away quickly and they went forty straight 0:18:53.200 --> 0:18:56.480 years with control of the House. This all goes back 0:18:57.040 --> 0:19:00.600 to the Republican Party and their trade issue and being 0:19:00.680 --> 0:19:05.359 essentially punished for essentially wrecking the economy in the twenties 0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:10.080 that led to the Great Depression, and many economists have 0:19:10.160 --> 0:19:13.399 concluded it was the bad tariff regime, among other things, 0:19:13.800 --> 0:19:17.880 that put us in that situation. So I can't see 0:19:17.880 --> 0:19:22.399 a positive outlook politically here for the Republicans. And the 0:19:22.480 --> 0:19:27.440 question is how when do how many congressional Republicans break 0:19:27.480 --> 0:19:30.399 for him? And when do they break for him? I 0:19:30.440 --> 0:19:33.800 explained earlier, I highly doubt the House Republicans will crack 0:19:34.560 --> 0:19:37.959 because they got there because of Trump. So in some ways, 0:19:38.080 --> 0:19:41.000 in for a diamond for a dollar, the Senate Republicans 0:19:41.000 --> 0:19:44.600 want to break, Maybe they'll wait till after they passed 0:19:44.640 --> 0:19:46.239 the tax cut because they're going to need a lot 0:19:46.240 --> 0:19:48.440 of help from Trump on that. By the way, you 0:19:48.440 --> 0:19:51.080 want to talk about stupidity with this legislative agenda by 0:19:51.080 --> 0:19:54.800 this White House. If he knew he always wanted to 0:19:54.800 --> 0:19:57.679 do this teriff for all these tariffs, he should have 0:19:57.720 --> 0:20:02.919 waited six months, gotten his tax cut, then done this. Instead, 0:20:03.240 --> 0:20:06.200 he's now the tax I think he's put his tax 0:20:06.240 --> 0:20:08.679 cuts in jeopardy here, because I think this economy is 0:20:08.720 --> 0:20:12.880 just going to be in terrible shape. Come the end 0:20:12.880 --> 0:20:14.880 of the summer into the fall, we're going to see 0:20:14.920 --> 0:20:16.920 all sorts of horrible warning signs. You're going to see 0:20:17.040 --> 0:20:19.560 a rise of unemployment rate. We've already seen that the 0:20:19.600 --> 0:20:23.320 parent company of Chrysler and Cheep has already announced TERFF 0:20:23.359 --> 0:20:27.480 related layouts. And so the tax cut's going to come. 0:20:27.560 --> 0:20:30.440 I'm sure Donald Trump's going to try desperately to come 0:20:30.520 --> 0:20:33.879 up with some sort of rebate check of some sort 0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:36.200 to try to and call it like sort of hey, 0:20:36.200 --> 0:20:38.960 I'm going to give the first, you know, the first 0:20:39.040 --> 0:20:40.959 chunk of tariff money that comes in the country. I'm 0:20:41.000 --> 0:20:42.800 going to give it back to my farmers. I'm going 0:20:42.840 --> 0:20:45.239 to give it back. And it really isn't you know. 0:20:45.280 --> 0:20:48.439 All it is is our own money that we paid 0:20:49.000 --> 0:20:53.200 that essentially is covering the tariff costs then being sent 0:20:53.280 --> 0:20:56.680 back perhaps in check form. But I'm not sure Congress 0:20:56.720 --> 0:20:58.960 is going to be comfortable going along with that because 0:20:58.960 --> 0:21:03.160 whether it'll even come as as believable. But I think 0:21:03.160 --> 0:21:05.640 he will try something to mitigate this, but I don't 0:21:05.680 --> 0:21:07.400 think it's going to be getting rid of the tariffs. 0:21:07.520 --> 0:21:09.080 And even if he gets rid of him, it's not 0:21:09.119 --> 0:21:12.280 going to solve the larger problem he has already severed. 0:21:12.280 --> 0:21:16.800 He's already severed all of these economic and potentially national 0:21:16.840 --> 0:21:20.120 security ties with so many key allies that putting these 0:21:20.160 --> 0:21:23.159 partnerships back together is going to take decades. It's going 0:21:23.240 --> 0:21:25.760 to take decades, and it's going to take because the 0:21:26.520 --> 0:21:31.080 concern this is now twice that America's elected him, and 0:21:31.359 --> 0:21:37.600 this disruptive ideology. So our European our traditional European partners, 0:21:37.680 --> 0:21:40.960 are traditional Asian partners. They're not going to quickly get 0:21:41.000 --> 0:21:44.440 back into bed with us, even if the next term 0:21:44.600 --> 0:21:47.320 is sort of somebody who is a non a president 0:21:47.320 --> 0:21:52.800 who isn't in favor of trump Ism. But it's going 0:21:52.840 --> 0:21:56.440 to be a long seventeen months, so I think people 0:21:56.480 --> 0:21:59.120 will have to prepare accordingly. I think you will see 0:21:59.119 --> 0:22:02.480 a pullback and spend and that will be just all 0:22:02.520 --> 0:22:06.959 of that will be a domino effect. But I do 0:22:07.040 --> 0:22:11.320 expect Congress will finally find its spine and take its 0:22:11.359 --> 0:22:15.119 tariff power back from the presidency. But it may not 0:22:15.240 --> 0:22:19.560 happen until you have at least one chamber in Democratic hands. 0:22:19.960 --> 0:22:21.800 And I think of at the House, if the Democrats 0:22:21.800 --> 0:22:25.159 pick up the House and Republicans, even if it's you know, 0:22:25.240 --> 0:22:29.200 Republicans don't lose a single senency. I promise you there's 0:22:29.240 --> 0:22:32.440 a large majority that if they know it, can they 0:22:32.480 --> 0:22:34.479 know they have the votes in the House to do it, 0:22:34.800 --> 0:22:38.359 they will take the tariff keys away from the mad 0:22:38.440 --> 0:22:42.880 King here. And I think that likelihood is quite high 0:22:43.160 --> 0:22:47.080 that this is This is potentially one of the greatest 0:22:47.160 --> 0:22:50.840 political disasters. This is I'm trying to come up look 0:22:50.880 --> 0:22:53.520 for other equivalents. Maybe this could be as bad as 0:22:54.000 --> 0:22:59.240 what happened to Democrats in ninety four with the assault 0:22:59.240 --> 0:23:03.800 weapons ban, with healthcare. Perhaps this is as bad as 0:23:03.800 --> 0:23:07.960 the Tea Party for the Republicans for the Democrats in 0:23:08.160 --> 0:23:11.800 twenty ten. Perhaps it's Watergate nineteen seventy four. But I 0:23:11.840 --> 0:23:14.479 think this is not going to be a small ripple. 0:23:14.840 --> 0:23:18.159 This is going to be a gigantic crack here. And 0:23:18.200 --> 0:23:21.840 who knows it. Perhaps perhaps this leads to a new 0:23:21.880 --> 0:23:25.280 fight inside the Republican party. Maybe there are primaries. I'm 0:23:25.320 --> 0:23:28.320