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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.

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Speaker 1: We are an Action Network podcast. I'm branding Kravitz, your host.

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Speaker 1: Back at it with partials of the crew. The first

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Speaker 1: lady of the pod, Kendra Middleton, is with me. Stucky,

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Speaker 1: still reeling from the end of the first two rounds

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Speaker 1: of the NCAA tournament as a single tear drops from

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Speaker 1: his cheek. Brackets are busted, hearts are broken, Cinderella officially

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Speaker 1: booted from the dance.

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Speaker 2: How you doing, Kendra?

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Speaker 3: I'm doing okay.

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Speaker 2: My bracket sucks.

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Speaker 3: I've had the worst betting streak of my entire existence.

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Speaker 3: I don't care what I put in the app fade

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Speaker 3: me for the rest of eternity. In this tournament. I'm

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Speaker 3: hoping my futures can save me. But yeah, tough tournament

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Speaker 3: for me. I will say I did admit this on

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Speaker 3: social media. I am the and on the air on

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Speaker 3: my other shows. I'm the first person to admit when

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Speaker 3: I'm wrong, and this tournament might be it proof.

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Speaker 1: So I have an issue with your take on this

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Speaker 1: in two different directions because I think that your initial take,

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Speaker 1: which was Cinderella is dead.

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Speaker 2: The tournament is broken.

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Speaker 1: You had that was, you had that one in case,

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Speaker 1: you had you had it laminated and everything full year.

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Speaker 1: Then we had a decent opening round of the tournament,

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Speaker 1: and you broke the glass and said I was wrong.

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Speaker 1: I actually think your initial take was the right one.

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Speaker 1: Not that the tournament is broken. The tournament is fun,

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Speaker 1: but it's not what it was. Yeah, like we have

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Speaker 1: if we could get the voice of God, Evan Abramson

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Speaker 1: here he hit us up in the chat just now

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Speaker 1: and said that Cinderella is alive in the Texas Longhorns.

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Speaker 1: The day that Texas, which has a bigger nil budget

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Speaker 1: than anybody else in the country, becomes our Cinderella, IOWA

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Speaker 1: in the Big Ten, one of the best, if not

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Speaker 1: the best, basketball conference in the country, If that's what

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Speaker 1: we're determining that, I think your original take was right,

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Speaker 1: and I don't think you ever should have apologized for it.

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Speaker 3: I just think that, like the competition is better, Like

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Speaker 3: these Cinderellas are playing up to big teams better, but

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Speaker 3: we're obviously not getting those big upsets. So it's entertaining

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Speaker 3: good basketball. But I'm having I will say, maybe you

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Speaker 3: are correct, because I'm having way more fun watching the

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Speaker 3: women's tournament. Even though these like number one and number

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Speaker 3: two seeds are beating the shit out of everybody else.

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Speaker 2: You can't smasgine.

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Speaker 1: Evan, you cube, Evan, Please tell me you were joking

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Speaker 1: when you called Texas a Cinderella.

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Speaker 4: It just depends on.

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Speaker 5: What you're talking about, right, Like, we haven't.

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Speaker 4: Seen a a mid major team the last two years

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Speaker 4: is deep, but Texas was fifteen hundred to one, So like,

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Speaker 4: it depends on what you're looking at in terms of

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Speaker 4: mid major Like, yeah, obviously the uh you know, the

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Speaker 4: low what.

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Speaker 2: I mean, where the fuck is this school?

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Speaker 4: That?

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Speaker 2: To me, that's what that's a Cinderella.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I see even high Like if High Point had

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Speaker 1: made it to the sweet sixteen, that's a perfect example.

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Speaker 1: I get that Texas was in the first four, but

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Speaker 1: Texas will never ever ever be a Cinderella story.

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Speaker 3: We are getting corn mgeddon do you guys have you

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Speaker 3: guys seen no Nebraska Iowa?

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Speaker 5: Oh yeah, no, we understand it.

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Speaker 1: I definitely thought you said something else. Never mind, all right, moving.

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Speaker 5: On, thank you have to go. Sorry, my mom's here.

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Speaker 6: All right, Kendri, what's on your mind today?

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Speaker 1: Okay?

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Speaker 3: The question of the week. If you had to use

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Speaker 3: a vegetable to defend yourself in combat, what vegetable are

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Speaker 3: you using?

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Speaker 1: I I'm cheating because I looked ahead in the dock,

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Speaker 1: so I have put some thought into this. I'm using

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Speaker 1: a holopeno. What I'm using, first of all, very discreet.

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Speaker 1: You don't even know I have a weapon. I will

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Speaker 1: cut it in half. I will squeeze it into your eyeball,

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Speaker 1: and now you're blinded.

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Speaker 3: My sweet potato in a tube sock is gonna beat

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Speaker 3: the ship out of your julapeno bit.

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Speaker 2: I will duck.

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Speaker 1: I will duck your sweet potato, squeeze the halopano juice

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Speaker 1: right into your eye.

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Speaker 3: That is a terrible answer, Kravitz.

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Speaker 2: I was. I was once.

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Speaker 1: Once it popped into my head, I thought, well, this

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Speaker 1: this experiment is done for me, because clearly this is

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Speaker 1: the best answer we were trying would be the answer.

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Speaker 3: We were trying to predict what your answer was going

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Speaker 3: to be before you got on and Evan said that

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Speaker 3: he would shape a carrot into a shank.

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Speaker 2: Evan, do you still do you still stand by that?

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Speaker 2: Is it? Is it still carrot shank for you?

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Speaker 4: I mean it's like that or a yuka or a

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Speaker 4: sweet potato. I mean, if you had like handicapped this

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Speaker 4: this and bringing Kerner and like set odds, it's gotta

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Speaker 4: be one of those the show an onion?

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Speaker 1: Why would why would you choose a potato over an onion?

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Speaker 2: It's the same level of density.

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Speaker 4: The onion and halapeno take too long to come together.

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Speaker 4: Like by the time you've you've gotten me with either

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Speaker 4: of those, I have killed you with Mike Carrot, I can.

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Speaker 2: Make you with the onion and whap you over the

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Speaker 2: head with the oven.

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Speaker 3: Now, I would cut a pumpkin open and cover myself

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Speaker 3: and it's guts, so I would be slippery before you

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Speaker 3: could even get to me with that damn halapeno. Or

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Speaker 3: I would just throw tomatoes at you and boo you Kravitz.

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Speaker 2: That's not not the worst idea of the pumpkin one.

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Speaker 2: I kind of like that. Let's get to our main

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Speaker 2: dish today.

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Speaker 1: JSN got paid. The reigning Offensive Player of the Year

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Speaker 1: signed a four year, one hundred and sixty eight million

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Speaker 1: dollar contract with the Seahawks forty two per year. Guys

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Speaker 1: twenty four years old, He's a super professional just now

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Speaker 1: entering his prime. Best receiver in football last year and

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Speaker 1: he's got a ring. I have no issue with this whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure friend of the show Nick Lee also very

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Speaker 1: happy with this as well.

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Speaker 2: Two thumbs up for Seattle. An obvious move. You are

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Speaker 2: shaking your head.

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Speaker 3: Shot out, Nicklee. I love him to death, love him

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Speaker 3: to death. I understand why they had to pay him,

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Speaker 3: but I just kind of hate it. Like Sam Darnold,

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Speaker 3: he needs him as a security blanket. But I would

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Speaker 3: much rather have a young quarterback that elevates, you know,

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Speaker 3: a cheaper receiver than pay JSN this amount of money.

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Speaker 1: I know that's kind of well yeah, because they're like,

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Speaker 1: they're going in the opposite direction. Usually you pay the

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Speaker 1: quarterback that the quarterback elevates average receivers, makes them good,

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Speaker 1: or makes a good receiver great. You're taking your great

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Speaker 1: receiver and hoping that he makes an average quarterback great.

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Speaker 2: But really it worked.

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Speaker 1: And that's what happens when you win a Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: is you end up paying the people that help.

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Speaker 2: Get you there.

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Speaker 3: The thing that made my first thing that came to

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Speaker 3: mind is, holy fucking shit, Pooka Nakua is about to

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Speaker 3: make so much money it makes me want.

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Speaker 2: To throw up.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but the difference is, are we sure Pooka Nakua

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Speaker 1: is that super professional? I think part of the reason

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Speaker 1: you pay jsentence because you don't even worry about him.

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Speaker 1: He's just, you know, he's a lunch paiale guy who

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Speaker 1: happened to be super athletic.

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Speaker 3: It doesn't really matter. We see these like diva receivers

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Speaker 3: still get paid in the NFL all the time, like

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Speaker 3: AJ Brown, Like he's the definition of a diva and

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Speaker 3: he's still making money and people are going to give

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Speaker 3: up a first and a second round pick to get

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Speaker 3: him if he's not gone by Jude first like it does.

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Speaker 3: It doesn't matter. If you're good enough, you're gonna get paid.

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Speaker 3: Look at freakin' Deshaun Watson. He's a piece of crap

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Speaker 3: and made a bag.

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Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, Well, I blame the Browns. I blame the

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Speaker 1: Browns ownership. Jimmy has them for that one. I don't

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Speaker 1: know that anybody else has given him that, but at

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Speaker 1: least I hope that that's the case. Now that's not

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Speaker 1: the only wide receiver news we have in Seattle. I

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Speaker 1: am sure that you are absolutely gutted as the Seahawks

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Speaker 1: are matching a Jaguars qualifying offer for wide receiver Jake Bobo.

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Speaker 3: What I would you believe me if I told you

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Speaker 3: I almost cried about this because I did.

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Speaker 5: I was so pissed.

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Speaker 3: The marriage of North Andover Massachusetts and Jacksonville.

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Speaker 5: Florida was so close for me.

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Speaker 3: I needed a Bobo jersey like that that would go

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Speaker 3: so crazy in teal. I hated this.

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Speaker 5: I hated this so much.

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Speaker 3: I was like, Okay, JSN, good to go in the clear.

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Speaker 3: No dagger to the heart. Literally, just take me out back.

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Speaker 1: Do we have an early candidate for Bete jail? Is

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Speaker 1: Jake Bobo gonna enter early off season?

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Speaker 2: Bete?

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Speaker 3: He's dead to me. He's literally dead to me. It's

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Speaker 3: not his fault at all. It's literally it has nothing

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Speaker 3: to do with him. It has it's nothing and no,

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Speaker 3: but I can't, and good faith, I cannot carrot dagger

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Speaker 3: to the heart. Yes, David Payne, harrot Shank.

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Speaker 1: We also have, uh, speaking of heart, so we have

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Speaker 1: America's sweetheart, Travis Kelsey locked in for twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: He signed a three year, fifty four million dollar deal,

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Speaker 1: putting him right behind George Kittle and Trey McBride in

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Speaker 1: terms of average annual value. Those two, by the way,

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Speaker 1: at this stage in their career, significantly better than what

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Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey is. This feels very much like a thank

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Speaker 1: you contract for Kelsey.

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Speaker 3: Disgusting, disingenuous. This isn't a thank you contract. This is

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Speaker 3: a Taylor Swift is making us so much money. Will

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Speaker 3: pay you whatever you want because we're selling.

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Speaker 1: Your Do you honest Do you honestly think she has

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Speaker 1: something to do with the dollar amount here?

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Speaker 5: Babe? I'm a girl.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna hold your nostril hairs when I tell you this, Okay.

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Speaker 3: I have gone to so many women's sporting events in

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Speaker 3: the grocery store, it does not matter. Every casual sports

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Speaker 3: fan I have seen is in a Travis Kelcey jersey.

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Speaker 3: And these girls, and I'm not shaving women who want

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Speaker 3: to get into football or anything like that, but they

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Speaker 3: think that they know absolutely everything because they've watched one

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Speaker 3: season of football, because they're a swifty And nothing drives

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Speaker 3: me more insane than these girls who just hopped on

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Speaker 3: this bandwagon. I'm happy to have you, happy to have you.

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Speaker 3: I'm not gay keeping shit, but please read a book,

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Speaker 3: get off of swifty Twitter. If you actually want to

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Speaker 3: care about football. You got to care about football, not

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Speaker 3: just Travis Kelsey, babe. Like it has opened such a

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Speaker 3: swifty portal of the female sports fan that it makes

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Speaker 3: me so irrationally angry.

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Speaker 1: Uh yeah, when you have fans that are only tuned

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Speaker 1: in for those particular occasions where the Chiefs and Kelsey

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Speaker 1: are on the screen, I don't know if that helps

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Speaker 1: the sport. There's obviously a much bigger conversation to have

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Speaker 1: here about you know, if you want to do the

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Speaker 1: whole dad's watching football with their daughter's thing and all

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Speaker 1: of that. But you're talking about folks at the bar

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Speaker 1: pretending like they've been locked in on the NFL for

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Speaker 1: a decade. That's my only issue in regards to what

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Speaker 1: you're saying is when any and that's when anybody does

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Speaker 1: this in any walk of life. And this seems to

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Speaker 1: happen in sports more than anything else where people show

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Speaker 1: up to the party and act like they've been at

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Speaker 1: the party for twenty years. You gotta kind of know

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Speaker 1: I would never walk in I know nothing about cars.

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Speaker 1: I would never decide one day that I'm into cars

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Speaker 1: and then walk into a mechanic shop being like, all right,

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Speaker 1: we are the wug nuts, you know, Like I don't know,

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Speaker 1: so I think it's there's there's some pretender that's going on,

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Speaker 1: but it is.

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Speaker 2: It is cranking out the cash for the NFL.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, they had to pay him whatever he wanted

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Speaker 3: because she's making them so much money.

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Speaker 1: And in look and I think eye test wise, and

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Speaker 1: compared to his previous statistics, there was clearly a drop

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Speaker 1: off with him. I was looking at some of the

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Speaker 1: advanced numbers. He wasn't actually as bad as our eyes

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Speaker 1: would tell us. He was still fourth in yards at

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Speaker 1: the position, third in yards after catch, he was third

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Speaker 1: in total EPA per play.

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Speaker 2: He wasn't a bad tight end. He's just not what

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Speaker 2: he was. So it's slow as shit.

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Speaker 1: But in some respects now they use the shit out

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Speaker 1: of him, so I think that helps booy some of

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Speaker 1: those statistics.

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Speaker 2: I don't think he's as official as it used to be,

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Speaker 2: but because.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, they had to.

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Speaker 3: They had so many injuries to start the season, like

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Speaker 3: they had to rely on him. He had to be

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Speaker 3: a security blanket, whether he was a shell of himself.

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Speaker 2: Or not shell of himself.

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Speaker 1: But still, maybe it's just because there aren't many great

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Speaker 1: tight ends.

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Speaker 2: In the NFL.

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Speaker 1: He's still better than a lot of tight ends. I

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Speaker 1: think that's an accurate thing to say at this point.

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Speaker 3: I just with another year and all of these miles

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Speaker 3: on him, I would be shocked if he's a top

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Speaker 3: ten this year. And like that sounds crazy to say

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Speaker 3: because he's still Travis Kelcey, but I will legitimately be

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Speaker 3: shocked if he is a top ten tight end this year.

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Speaker 3: He should have walked off into the rainbow sunset. Go

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Speaker 3: get married, Go start a family, Go do your podcast

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Speaker 3: with your brother, and help her mom renovate her home.

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Speaker 3: You're gonna It's one of those things where we deal

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Speaker 3: with it in sports all the time, where we see

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Speaker 3: someone that was so beloved for quite some time just

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Speaker 3: stick around too long that it ruins their legacy. Look

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Speaker 3: at Bill Belichick, You should have rolled off into the sunset,

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Speaker 3: been a legend, you know you had.

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Speaker 2: Look at gros he could be Gronk.

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Speaker 3: Like Gronk knew when to walk away. Know when to

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Speaker 3: walk away. Don't ruin your legacy. Go live this next

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Speaker 3: chapter of your life, because your height of fame is

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Speaker 3: never going to be this high again.

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Speaker 2: Walk away.

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Speaker 1: I think in this is getting really pop psychology on you.

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Speaker 1: I think part of it is that Travis Kelcey is

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Speaker 1: scared because he doesn't know what's next outside of being

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Speaker 1: on a podcast, which doesn't provide you the same level

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Speaker 1: of fame or meaning as being a star football player

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Speaker 1: does the same level of attention and love and admiration,

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Speaker 1: and as though his future wife has that more than

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Speaker 1: anyone on planet Earth. And if he walks away, he

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Speaker 1: becomes complete second fiddle. So I think there's probably there's

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Speaker 1: gotta be some paranoia, like if I I can't stop

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Speaker 1: doing this, because then I lose all meaning.

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Speaker 2: In this relationship.

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Speaker 3: Every athlete goes through that, man like get a therapist, babe.

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Speaker 1: We're about to dive deep into Major League Baseball regular

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Speaker 1: season win totals with the guru of all things Baseball,

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Speaker 1: Sean Zarillo.

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Speaker 2: But first a word from DraftKings.

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Speaker 3: The Favorites podcast is sponsored by Droptking Sportsbook, and you

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Speaker 3: should know. DraftKings is the sportsbook for betting on NBA stars.

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Speaker 3: It is Tuesday, which means all customers have a shot

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Speaker 3: at a share of two million dollars in bonus bets

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Speaker 3: when they place a five dollars pre game player prop

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Speaker 3: bet on the night's pra Leader. King of the Court

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Speaker 3: is live every week of the NBA season. Bet must

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Speaker 3: be on the pre Leader which NBA star will rule

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Speaker 3: the court. Sign up now using promo code of Favorites

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Speaker 3: to get in on the action Now.

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Speaker 1: Sean Zarillo baseball betting analysts for US here at Action Network,

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Speaker 1: a man who mopped up in the World Baseball Classic.

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Speaker 1: Thank you Sean for that. You can catch him on

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Speaker 1: the Payoff Pitch podcast all season long. Baseball season has

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Speaker 1: essentially arrived, Sean, you must be pretty jacked up about that.

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Speaker 7: Oh yeah, one more day and then we got a

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Speaker 7: game on Netflix for some reason, I don't love the

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Speaker 7: monetization and corporatization of.

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Speaker 5: The game that we love.

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Speaker 7: But then a full slate on Thursday, and I never

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Speaker 7: understand why a lot of these teams end up having

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Speaker 7: an off day after their first game either. I don't

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Speaker 7: really understand the scheduling of that. But we'll launch fully

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Speaker 7: into things on Saturday, I think with all teams playing,

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Speaker 7: so yeah, full weekend of Baseball ahead Survivor pools does

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Speaker 7: make it a little bit difficult fantasy as well. Normally,

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Speaker 7: I feel like for Fantasy Survivor they give you that

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Speaker 7: like ten day first week. They compressed everything into a

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Speaker 7: four or five three four five day first week here,

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Speaker 7: So that's a little weird, but I couldn't be more

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Speaker 7: excited to have two four hundred and thirty regular season

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Speaker 7: games to handicap and then all the playoffs behind it.

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Speaker 7: So yeah, we've been fully launched into baseball already with

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Speaker 7: the WBC and got the warm up out of the

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Speaker 7: way and ready for the regular season.

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Speaker 1: Well, look, these massive contracts aren't going to pay for themselves,

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Speaker 1: so they got to come up with creative ways to

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Speaker 1: generate that sort of revenue. You get the one off

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Speaker 1: with the Yankees and the Giants on Wednesday night and

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Speaker 1: then the traditional opening day on Thursday. We're talking mL

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Speaker 1: BE season long win totals on today's podcast. Primarily we

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Speaker 1: might fit some other things in there as well, but

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Speaker 1: this is your last chance to get in pre flop

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Speaker 1: on the win totals across the league. What's the first

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Speaker 1: thing that people need to look at when diving into

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Speaker 1: baseball win totals? And I ask because we're in an

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Speaker 1: NFL betting podcast. In the NFL, you start with the schedule.

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Speaker 1: In baseball, I would think that that's a lot less

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Speaker 1: irrelevant because you're playing everybody in the NBA. It's very

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Speaker 1: player driven with new additions to the team because one

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Speaker 1: player makes such a massive difference on what your season

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Speaker 1: outlook is, what's and there are multiple factors, but what's

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Speaker 1: the number one key to baseball totals?

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Speaker 2: Where do you start at?

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Speaker 5: Number one?

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Speaker 7: I would say is the fact that if you add

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Speaker 7: up all the win totals at a specific book, you're

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Speaker 7: going to get higher than the possible number of wins

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Speaker 7: you could have in a season. So books are going

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Speaker 7: to overinflate their win total market by eight wins, fifteen wins,

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Speaker 7: what have you. So generally speaking, unders are more profitable

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Speaker 7: or there's going to be more value on unders, just

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Speaker 7: because there's more possible wins listed for these teams than

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Speaker 7: they could possibly win in a season. Now, even beyond that,

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Speaker 7: I think there's a wide range of publicly available win

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Speaker 7: total projections, not only my own, which you can find

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Speaker 7: on Action network dot com, but also and you could

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Speaker 7: find this in my article as well, so you don't

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Speaker 7: have to jump around and do all the work, but

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Speaker 7: other publicly available projections from Fangrafts, Pacoda ATC again if

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Speaker 7: you go to my article, you can find on the

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Speaker 7: tabs for these divisions my win total and then all

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Speaker 7: the other win totals that are out there, so you

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Speaker 7: can kind of paint a picture of the expected range

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Speaker 7: of outcomes that these teams have. And some teams have

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Speaker 7: very narrow ranges, just two or three wins. Other teams

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Speaker 7: have much wider ranges, which are closer to ten wins

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Speaker 7: in their projection gap. So finding where there is consensus

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Speaker 7: value on specific teams. For example, a team like the

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Speaker 7: Mariners who can get to but everybody thinks the Mariners

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Speaker 7: are winning their division over fifty percent of the time.

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Speaker 7: There's other consensus teams like the Marlins, who I'm really

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Speaker 7: high on. Every single prediction out there, every public projection

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Speaker 7: thinks the Marlins are going over their win total this year,

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Speaker 7: and I'm actually at the little bit of the higher

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Speaker 7: end of that range. So you can use publicly available

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Speaker 7: data to form a consensus opinion, but no going in

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Speaker 7: when you form that consensus that you're likelier to have

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Speaker 7: more value on the unders as opposed.

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Speaker 2: To the overs.

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Speaker 1: Amen to that love betting a good baseball under. Is

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Speaker 1: there anything that happened in spring training? That change your opinion.

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Speaker 1: I guess we can layer the World Baseball Classic into

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Speaker 1: this as well, though that's more players specific than teams specific.

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Speaker 1: But admittedly, and I love watching baseball, I ignore spring training.

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Speaker 1: I mean to me, it's just like background noise. I

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Speaker 1: don't factor that in. But you're much more keyed in

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Speaker 1: on this stuff than I am. Are you looking at

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Speaker 1: spring training performances from teams, from specific players and factoring

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Speaker 1: that into your season long analysis to degree?

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Speaker 7: I think something you can find noise in or something

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Speaker 7: you could find signal in in small samples. As a

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Speaker 7: post the noise is strikeout rate. Strikeout rate tends to

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Speaker 7: stabilize much more quickly than other data points. Sixty plate appearances,

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Speaker 7: one hundred plate appearances. You can actually paint a pretty

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Speaker 7: good picture of a player's strikeout rate expected strike out rate,

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Speaker 7: both for hitters and for pitchers, so it could be

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Speaker 7: extremely useful. Somebody who've been monitoring the strike out rate

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Speaker 7: very closely for this year is Ronald the Kunu Junior.

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Speaker 7: Because you go back to his MVP season, Acunya struck

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Speaker 7: out like eleven percent of the time. You look at

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Speaker 7: the rest of his career history, it's north of twenty percent.

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Speaker 7: So if Ronald the Kuna Junior is able to cut

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Speaker 7: a strikeout rate down in half where he had it

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Speaker 7: fro him previously, he's an MVP candidate immediately. Again, his

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Speaker 7: strikeout rate between the WBC and Spring is kind of

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Speaker 7: where it was previously, but his walk rate is shot up,

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Speaker 7: and his walk right shot up last year too, So

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Speaker 7: I think you're sort of seeing the evolution of a

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Speaker 7: Ronald Lacunya that is going to be a little bit

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Speaker 7: more patient at the plate and hunting for power and

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Speaker 7: big swings at the dish and looking for home runs.

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Speaker 7: So maybe not going to get that forty forty season again,

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Speaker 7: but maybe tilting towards getting closer to fifty home runs,

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Speaker 7: potentially closer to thirty steels, just because he's not going

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Speaker 7: to be standing on first base as much so finding

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Speaker 7: strikeout rate differentials relative to previous performance. Obviously, injury news

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Speaker 7: is the biggest factor with your note about you know

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Speaker 7: teams who have been impacted most by Spring. It's clearly

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Speaker 7: the braves, the braves of Blast, Spencer, schwellenbach Hurst and

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Speaker 7: Waldrop and now Spencer Strider is on the ale as well.

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Speaker 7: Ranaldo Lopez's velocity is down, and Jerickson Profar got suspended.

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Speaker 7: So five key players for the Braves that were expected

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Speaker 7: to be there at the starter spring are either on

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Speaker 7: the IL or gone for the season. The Braves are

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Speaker 7: a team who I bet the win total under, and

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Speaker 7: I've also bet them to miss the playoffs during spring.

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Speaker 7: And as I just mentioned with the Marlins, I think

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Speaker 7: a team like the Marlins or a team like the

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Speaker 7: Pirates now have a path to potentially finding a back

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Speaker 7: end playoff spot because if you assume the Mets and

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Speaker 7: Phillies will probably get playoff spots, the Cubs and Brewers,

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Speaker 7: I think will both get playoff spots. The Doughters, we know,

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Speaker 7: will get a playoff spot. That's five of the six

439
00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 7: playoff teams in.

440
00:20:58,320 --> 00:20:58,960
Speaker 5: The National League.

441
00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:00,560
Speaker 7: So if you're going to kick Atlanta out of there,

442
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:02,800
Speaker 7: it does open the window for a team like Miami

443
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,760
Speaker 7: or the Giants, or for the Pirates. So I think

444
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:08,600
Speaker 7: there's a chance, or I think there's a good chance

445
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 7: that we get a quote unquote surprise playoff team from

446
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:14,159
Speaker 7: the NL as a result of how poorly the first

447
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:17,199
Speaker 7: month prior to the season has gone for Atlanta. Just

448
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,400
Speaker 7: the other thing about your point. For the World Baseball Classic,

449
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:21,679
Speaker 7: the Red Sox and Royals players performed really well.

450
00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:22,800
Speaker 5: I know it's a small.

451
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:27,240
Speaker 7: Sample, but those guys were heavily involved on good teams

452
00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:30,120
Speaker 7: and having good performances. And I think, you know, concerning

453
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:34,960
Speaker 7: the Royals players, specifically Pasquentino, Jackkaggs, Michael Garcia who won

454
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:38,440
Speaker 7: tournament MVP, I think they all just showed great play discipline.

455
00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 7: They're all young hitters who are continuing to get better,

456
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 7: and in key spots and high pressure at bats, they

457
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 7: showed that they were willing to wait for their pitch

458
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:49,200
Speaker 7: and take very patient abs and you know, not swing

459
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,920
Speaker 7: at balls and only swing at strikes. And that is

460
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 7: the general like thesis that I have going forward, or

461
00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:57,960
Speaker 7: the corner that I want to be gone going forward,

462
00:21:57,960 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 7: and what I plan to incorporate more to the data

463
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:03,760
Speaker 7: MO is swing selection data, swinging at strikes, not swinging

464
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 7: at balls, knowing the swing at the right pitches, because

465
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:09,200
Speaker 7: that is a very process driven stat and the more

466
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,440
Speaker 7: good pitches you're swinging at, the more bad pitches you're

467
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,399
Speaker 7: avoiding swinging at, the more production you should ultimately have.

468
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 7: So I think that's a really good data point and

469
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:19,200
Speaker 7: something that people do not look at yet that I

470
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:21,680
Speaker 7: think a year from now, two years from now will

471
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 7: have a number and people will will ave a debate

472
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 7: who has the best swing selection.

473
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,440
Speaker 3: So I am not the biggest baseball better in the world.

474
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 3: I will say the pitch clock has drawn me back in.

475
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 3: And I know that the World Baseball Classic drew better

476
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:37,160
Speaker 3: ratings than the NBA Finals last year. So maybe we're

477
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 3: seeing baseball move back up into that second slot of

478
00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:42,639
Speaker 3: America's favorite sport behind football. In your opinion, I know

479
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 3: we're talking win totals today, but do you think that

480
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,159
Speaker 3: that has the best of value in futures? Would it

481
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 3: be cy Young's, would it be MVPs? Would it be

482
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:53,120
Speaker 3: World Series futures? Where can casuals like myself maybe find

483
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:54,200
Speaker 3: the best value.

484
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think some of these divisional prices, like I

485
00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,680
Speaker 7: mentioned with Seattle. I make Seattle about minus four hundred

486
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 7: and you can still bet them at plus money, and

487
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 7: every other projecting system aside from my own, says they're

488
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 7: a value bet to win their division, win the al wells.

489
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 7: So there can be some humongous edges in terms of

490
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:15,399
Speaker 7: divisional odds, not necessarily win totals or World Series. It's

491
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:17,920
Speaker 7: tough to find bigger edges or big edges in those markets.

492
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 7: Seattle again is a consensus World Series value pick. But

493
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 7: I'd say to make the playoffs, to make or miss

494
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 7: the playoffs, and then the divisional odds are where you're

495
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 7: going to find the biggest values in the team futures market.

496
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,360
Speaker 7: I bet Houston at plus one fifty five plus one

497
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,479
Speaker 7: sixty five to miss the playoffs. I bet San Diego

498
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:34,239
Speaker 7: in a similar range. They're both minus one ten.

499
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:34,439
Speaker 3: Now.

500
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 7: So a month ago, you know, six weeks ago, if

501
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 7: you had jumped on those bets, I thought there was

502
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 7: a fifteen to twenty percent edge on those bets, like

503
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:45,439
Speaker 7: a humongous edge, and edge you'll never find on a

504
00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:48,440
Speaker 7: single regular season game. Right now, that bet that has

505
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:51,400
Speaker 7: the humongous edge is Seattle to win the Ale West.

506
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 5: So I think that's the best bet on the board.

507
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 7: And not only is it the best bet on the board,

508
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 7: I think it's like a twenty or thirty percent edge,

509
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:57,920
Speaker 7: it's a massive edge. You will never find that edge

510
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 7: that big during the season. When you're talking about where

511
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 7: in general you could find the best edges or where

512
00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 7: in general there's the most value I think it's actually

513
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:10,119
Speaker 7: the milestone props I put out. Was on an episode

514
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 7: a couple weeks ago here on the Favorites, we talked

515
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 7: about player props team props. I pointed out that as

516
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,320
Speaker 7: opposed to taking the player to lead his category and

517
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:21,360
Speaker 7: home runs or player to lead his category in picture wins,

518
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 7: finding the sixteen plus pitcher wins or thirty plus home

519
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 7: run projections, and again you can find all that in

520
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:31,400
Speaker 7: my content with projections on them. But those bets offered

521
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 7: much bigger edges relative to the leader props or relative

522
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 7: to any other type of player props, just because I

523
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 7: think it's more difficult for people to project out the

524
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:41,200
Speaker 7: limits on those are a little bit lower, and also

525
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 7: the range of outcomes could be a little bit wider

526
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:46,160
Speaker 7: on these players. So if you're not being very diligent

527
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 7: in terms of projecting them out, I think you can

528
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 7: over or under project their ability to hit those certain milestones.

529
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:55,719
Speaker 7: But in general, aside from these specific divisional or make

530
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:57,640
Speaker 7: the playoff futures, where I thought there were huge edges

531
00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:00,399
Speaker 7: in the team market, it's the player milestones and the

532
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 7: you know players, pick a player or two you like

533
00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 7: this year, bet them thirty plus home runs forty plus

534
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 7: home runs. If it's a steals guy, bet them forty steals,

535
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 7: fifty steals. Kind of ladder them up to where you

536
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 7: think they may eventually get. And if you think there's

537
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,159
Speaker 7: value on one, I can almost assure you there's value

538
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 7: on the ladder.

539
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 3: I want to piggyback off of your World Baseball Classic

540
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 3: comment and the Red Sox. I'm looking at Roman Anthony

541
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:25,480
Speaker 3: after the World Baseball Classic and maybe some of his

542
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 3: milestones or maybe like a long shot at MVP. Do

543
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 3: you see any value in that? I know Bryce Harper

544
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 3: won won at twenty three. I think by the time

545
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 3: those awards come around Roman anthe will probably be twenty one.

546
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,880
Speaker 3: Is there any value in getting ahead on anything Roman Anthony?

547
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 3: Just because I feel like locally up here in Boston,

548
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 3: he's obviously the hero, but nationally he's not getting the

549
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 3: recognition in comparison to the other names. After the World

550
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 3: Baseball Classic.

551
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:49,439
Speaker 7: Yeah, he hits the ball as hard as anybody. If

552
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 7: you look at his stackass page, I think the highest

553
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 7: hard hit rate in baseball this season, and if you

554
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 7: compare the guys who hit the ball the hardest, it's

555
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 7: all the top pitters in the league.

556
00:25:57,280 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 5: It's Aeron Judge, it's you know, Wan.

557
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:01,360
Speaker 7: Soto, it's it's the players you'd expect are all near

558
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 7: the top of the leaderboard. Anthony only had three hundred

559
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 7: plate appearances as a rookie because he ended up getting hurt.

560
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 7: If you actually just look solely at projections, the projections

561
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 7: would say there's value on his home run under this season.

562
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 7: I do not agree with that and cannot agree with that,

563
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:17,639
Speaker 7: even though the mass says that, and my mask says that,

564
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 7: just because I know how hard this dude hits the ball,

565
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:21,920
Speaker 7: and really it's a matter of just changing the swing

566
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 7: path in the swing angle and being able to lift

567
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:27,120
Speaker 7: more balls out. So it's tough to say that he's

568
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,680
Speaker 7: potentially an MVP candidate right now. I think he's maybe

569
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 7: a year or two away from winning an MVP. He

570
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:35,959
Speaker 7: may get some down ballot MVP votes this year. It

571
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 7: could be potentially the milestone props though in the thirty

572
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 7: plus forty plus for him, because the projections say, well,

573
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:45,679
Speaker 7: the projections say under on him. If he ends up

574
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 7: going over that bar, it's probably going to be way

575
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:50,479
Speaker 7: over that bar, because it's going to be the result

576
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 7: of a swing path change and him lifting more balls

577
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:53,360
Speaker 7: in the air.

578
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 5: We know how hard he can hit the ball.

579
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 7: We know that he has all the skills to square

580
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:00,280
Speaker 7: the ball up what I was talking about before learning

581
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 7: swing decisions. He already seems like he's one of the

582
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 7: best at that, and that's why he's such a highly

583
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 7: ranked prospect, because he's swinging good pitches for him to drive.

584
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 7: So yeah, I would say it's probably the milestone props

585
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:13,639
Speaker 7: for Anthony, and specifically the thirty plus forty plus angles

586
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:15,879
Speaker 7: if he has, if he has a good enough season

587
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 7: to go over twenty, I think there's a good chance

588
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 7: he's getting close to thirty.

589
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 1: I like that Roman, Anthony. Look, his star is only

590
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 1: getting brighter. And let's stay in the division. This is

591
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 1: a perhaps the best division in baseball.

592
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 2: Would you agree with that? Just in general?

593
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:32,360
Speaker 5: San Ales?

594
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 7: Absolutely, We've never had four teams from one division make

595
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 7: the playoffs together in the three team wildcard era. Every

596
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 7: projection system essentially projects the Yankees, Jays, Orioles, and Red Sox.

597
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 5: All to go over five hundred. But also they're all

598
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:48,640
Speaker 5: minus money to make the playoffs.

599
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 7: So yeah, our our old friend Anthony Deobundo picked four

600
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:53,640
Speaker 7: alas teams to make the playoffs. I have a very

601
00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 7: tough time picking four teams for the division to make

602
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 7: They're going to beat up on more than favored to

603
00:27:58,240 --> 00:27:58,640
Speaker 7: make it.

604
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:00,160
Speaker 5: It has to be the best division of baseball.

605
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you have. I'm an Orioles fan.

606
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 1: I love the addition of Pete Alonzo as good a one,

607
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 1: two three as you'll find in baseball. With Gunner and

608
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 1: Adleie Rutchman and Pete Alonzo in the lineup, the rotation

609
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 1: always has its question marks. With the Orioles, you have

610
00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 1: Roman Anthony and the Red Sox double down on pitching

611
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 1: as well. The Blue Jays were busy in the offseason,

612
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 1: and the Yankees or the Yankees, and then we always

613
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:29,399
Speaker 1: forget to mention the Rays. But yet they're perhaps the

614
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 1: best run organization dollar for dollar in Major League Baseball.

615
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:36,920
Speaker 1: So how do you see this shaking out the pecking order?

616
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 1: If teams you think getting four in the playoffs is

617
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:42,960
Speaker 1: that's asking a lot. But how do you see it

618
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 1: shaking out in terms of which teams you're higher on

619
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:49,480
Speaker 1: than market, which teams you're lower on than market?

620
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, only had two bets here in terms of team props.

621
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 5: It was or team bets.

622
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 7: It's the Yankees under ninety two and a half in

623
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,320
Speaker 7: the Rays over seventy six and a half. The Yankees

624
00:28:57,400 --> 00:28:59,600
Speaker 7: is gone. It's down to ninety and a half. The

625
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 7: Rays over would remain a bet because I have them

626
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 7: closer to eighty wins eighty one wins. The public projection

627
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 7: market generally also has them going over as well, they

628
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 7: have them near seventy nine. I know it's a very

629
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 7: tough and deep and difficult division, as we just alluded to,

630
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 7: but the Rays are also going back to Tropicana Field,

631
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 7: where they've spent the majority of their time as a

632
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 7: Major League club, and we have data going back to

633
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 7: two thousand and five on the trop the Rays have

634
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:27,040
Speaker 7: been the most profitable home underdog in our database. They're

635
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 7: often underrated at the trop They build their team to

636
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:33,960
Speaker 7: play low scoring pitching games there, and I think in general,

637
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 7: playing at Stan Brederfield last year, where we saw a

638
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:38,480
Speaker 7: lot more offense, ended up hurting them. Not only was

639
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 7: it a reduced home field in general, the Yankees are

640
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 7: used to playing in those dimensions, but there were just

641
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 7: a lot of goofy games with you know, those short

642
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 7: porch home runs going out to right field tipping over

643
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 7: the wall that ended up swinging out comes. The wind

644
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 7: bulling in or blowing out was drastically effected games. So

645
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 7: I think going back to the trop is going to

646
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 7: be a massive lift for the Raised chances, especially in

647
00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 7: home games. But I do think in general, because everybody

648
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 7: is so high in the other four teams in this division,

649
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 7: they have forgot about Tampa Bay and for that reason,

650
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 7: there's a lot of value on Tampa Bay in the

651
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 7: futures market. My favorite way to bet them, and I

652
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 7: love that win tot over. As I said at seventy

653
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 7: six and a half, my favorite way to bet them

654
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 7: is Kevin Cash to win Manager of the Year. This

655
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 7: is a team who's plus three hundred to make the playoffs,

656
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 7: just plus three hundred, and their manager to win Manager

657
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 7: of the Year in the toughest division in baseball is

658
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 7: north of.

659
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 5: Twenty to one.

660
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 7: Why are the odds five six, seven times higher than

661
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 7: their odds to make the playoffs? If the Rays make

662
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 7: the playoffs, Kevin Cash is top two in Manager of

663
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:35,560
Speaker 7: the Year voting easily, So I always think there's a

664
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 7: better way to bet something. I would much rather bet

665
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 7: Kevin Cash to win Manager of the Year at twenty

666
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 7: to one fifteen to one, then I would bet the

667
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 7: race to make the playoffs at three to one. I

668
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 7: think that's a tremendous bet. You could do the same

669
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 7: thing with the Pittsburgh Pirates as well. Their odds for

670
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 7: Don Kelly to win Manager of the Year are substantially

671
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 7: better than their odds to make the playoffs. The Marlins two.

672
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 7: Their odds for Clayton mccolly, I believe to win Manager

673
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 7: of the Year substantially better than the odds to make

674
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 7: the playoffs.

675
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 5: So there's always a better way to what be's something.

676
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 7: I think that manager angle for Tampa is really good,

677
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 7: but I like the wind Towle little over too.

678
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 3: What's scaring you off about the Yankees? Because a lot

679
00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 3: of people are really high on them. I know that

680
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 3: they're getting Garrett coleback. Do you think that he's just

681
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 3: not going to be able to step back into that

682
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 3: ace role? Ass that the Aaron Judge is a massive choker.

683
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 3: What's what's scaring you off about the Yankees?

684
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 2: Probably Judge.

685
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 5: The shaded Judge is appropriate. Just standing there.

686
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 7: In the WBC final is an image that will be

687
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 7: his legacy for now unless he ends up winning gold

688
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 7: medal in the Olympics, So yeah, killed his legacy briefly.

689
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 7: You know, the Yankees do have a lot of upside.

690
00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 7: Ryan Weathers at the back end of their rotation. Uh,

691
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 7: there's a number of pitching prospects that they have that

692
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 7: they could bring up. We saw Louis Heel when the

693
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 7: rookie of the year. He's not even projected to be

694
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 7: in their opening their rotation. So Schlitzler, you know, Slitler

695
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 7: was great in the playoff last year. There's a lot

696
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:55,440
Speaker 7: of upside on this roster, a lot of upside. But

697
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:58,280
Speaker 7: I do think all of the win total projections just

698
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 7: have them closer to eighty nine and again, and I

699
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 7: think the compression of this division the top to the

700
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 7: bottom is a little bit closer than what people think

701
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 7: it is. You know, the Yankees, the Orioles, and the

702
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 7: Red Sox are all kind of projected in a similar

703
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 7: range last year. Yankees just a little bit ahead of them.

704
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:17,560
Speaker 7: I think you look at the win total projections this

705
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 7: year and everybody who was beneath them is just a

706
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 7: little bit closer. So it is tougher for them to

707
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 7: clear that ninety bar if the other three alias teams

708
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,480
Speaker 7: behind them are going to be pushing closer to eighty

709
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 7: five wins, and then the Rays as well pushing closer

710
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 7: to a five hundred team. So I think it's just

711
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 7: the difficulty of the vision and having to play each

712
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 7: of those teams thirteen times makes it really hard for

713
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 7: any of them to get higher.

714
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 5: Than ninety ones.

715
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 3: Okay, you're not giving the blue Jays any love, and

716
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 3: I'm all over the blue.

717
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 2: Jays this season.

718
00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 5: What's with the Blue Jay hate? It's not hate.

719
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 7: In fact, I think the Blue Jays are maybe the

720
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 7: likeliest team to add pieces in season, potentially even likelier

721
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 7: than the Yankees. They just missed out on essentially all

722
00:32:56,200 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 7: of their offseason targets aside from Dylan Cees, Trey is

723
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:02,920
Speaker 7: on the IL to start the season. He was phenomenal

724
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 7: in the playoffs last year. I do think vladd is

725
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 7: going to have an MVP caliber season. Vladd made some

726
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 7: swing changes with their hitting staff near the end of

727
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 7: the year. I think that's why you saw him take

728
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 7: off in the playoffs and then have such a great

729
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 7: World Baseball Classic as well. So I do think Vladd

730
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:18,880
Speaker 7: is kind of back to his peak form that you

731
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 7: saw when he had that forty plus home run season

732
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 7: earlier in his career. But largely, this is a team

733
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 7: built on depth, and this is a team built to

734
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 7: win in the regular season and then if they're able

735
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 7: to make the playoffs, which they should because they have

736
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 7: a very high floor, they will be competitive. But they

737
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:35,680
Speaker 7: may not have the most talented playoff roster top to bottom.

738
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 7: So I do think this is a more of a

739
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 7: regular season team. I'm sorry, I'm sorry, but I do

740
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:46,040
Speaker 7: think they are a very competent and well built club

741
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 7: and it's very likely that they'd make the playoffs. It's

742
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 7: just the question of what they add in season. Because

743
00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:53,760
Speaker 7: they really wanted to get Kyle Tucker in addition to

744
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 7: Dylan Ceas they only ended up getting seased, So I

745
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 7: think they're going to be looking for one more bad

746
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 7: particularly and outfield, there is that Jesus Sanchez Nathan Lucas

747
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 7: combo that they're running out in the left field.

748
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 5: I think you can upgrade.

749
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 1: So I'm by the way, I'm feverishly taking notes over here.

750
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 1: We'll have many bets placed by the time we wrap

751
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 1: up this podcast. So love in the info from Sean Zarillo.

752
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 1: One team that I've been looking at is the I'm

753
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,880
Speaker 1: not sure what city they're in. Athletics. They were fifty

754
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:24,080
Speaker 1: three and forty six in their last ninety nine games

755
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 1: last year. They had a twenty A one and twenty

756
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:32,680
Speaker 1: run at one point in the season, and they still

757
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:34,439
Speaker 1: won seventy six games last year.

758
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 2: I kind of like the talent on this team.

759
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,920
Speaker 1: Where are they playing, where are they still in Sacramento

760
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 1: And would we be wise to look at a win

761
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 1: total over for the Athletics as a team that might

762
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 1: be a lot better than people expect.

763
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 7: Yeah, these Sacramento Athletics, they are still there this year.

764
00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 7: The biggest you know, on our Payoff Pitch pod, every

765
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 7: single time we mentioned Oakland and I'm gonna mention it

766
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 7: by name specifically because I'm referencing it. We do have

767
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 7: to give out fun facts about the city of Sacramento.

768
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:09,880
Speaker 7: It's our self impost punishment every time it's it's the

769
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 7: city of Trees there. I believe it's where the Pony

770
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 7: Express was also founded. So I've become a lot more

771
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 7: aware of the city of Sacramento in general. They're playing

772
00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:20,800
Speaker 7: in West Sacramento specifically too. They like to highlight that part,

773
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 7: but I think the biggest takeaway from the a Is

774
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 7: last year was apparently, and Sacramento is very hot during

775
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,799
Speaker 7: the summer, it was expect that park was expected to

776
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 7: play like Course Field at the height of summer. Apparently,

777
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 7: it was a relatively temperate or moderate heat summer last year,

778
00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 7: so we didn't even see the park play to its

779
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 7: full potential. I think this year, assuming we get back

780
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 7: to full temperatures or expected temperatures, you're going to see

781
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:46,759
Speaker 7: even more runs in that park this year, a park

782
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 7: which already played about twenty percent over the Major League gaverage.

783
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:51,399
Speaker 7: So a lot of runs for the A's, but they're

784
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:53,400
Speaker 7: also going to give up a lot of runs. I

785
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 7: think their offense is great. I think their pitching is

786
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 7: potentially terrible. We did see them develop some guys for

787
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:03,080
Speaker 7: their pitching staff came up and looked pretty solid. But

788
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 7: getting them to eighty one wins, getting them over five hundred,

789
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 7: I think is going to be difficult. Even in a

790
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 7: vision that I don't like a lot of teams in.

791
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:12,440
Speaker 7: I make them about seventy three wins. The public projection

792
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 7: market has them right on the nose with their total

793
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 7: at seventy six, so it's a pass for me. I

794
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:18,799
Speaker 7: think you're going to bet a lot of overs with

795
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 7: this team, though.

796
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:23,399
Speaker 1: So another team that was bad but a whole lot

797
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 1: worse last year. The Colorado Rockies lost one hundred and

798
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 1: nineteen games. Last year, they finished a meager fifty games

799
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 1: out of first place in the West. Is it possible

800
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 1: that they might actually get worse this year or do

801
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:41,279
Speaker 1: you have to look over for them because of the

802
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 1: rarity of losing that many games.

803
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 2: Their win total over.

804
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 1: On DK fifty four and a half as it stands

805
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:48,120
Speaker 1: right now.

806
00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:50,480
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think in the second half they ended up

807
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:53,920
Speaker 7: playing closer to that fifty five win pace, So they

808
00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:56,919
Speaker 7: did play you know, what their expectations are this year,

809
00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 7: They did play to that expectation of the second half

810
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:01,720
Speaker 7: last year. I'm by far the lowest in the market

811
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 7: on the Rockies. I put them at fifty two wins

812
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 7: fifty two point one. The average public projection has them

813
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:09,880
Speaker 7: at sixty two. Again, I'm at fifty two. The average

814
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:13,360
Speaker 7: public direction is at sixty two, and everybody is higher

815
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:17,279
Speaker 7: on the Rockies than they're fifty five win total. I

816
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 7: bet it's small, but at fifty one and a half,

817
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:22,439
Speaker 7: at fifty five or whereever it is, currently I can't

818
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 7: bet the over, but the public projection market would absolutely

819
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 7: say to still bet the over on this team. I

820
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 7: think there's different approaches you could take, though, rather than

821
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:31,879
Speaker 7: just betting the Rockies over. At this point, I still

822
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 7: think San Diego is under is a better bet, and

823
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:39,880
Speaker 7: it's relatively correlated to Colorado's over as well, because you

824
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:41,880
Speaker 7: need the Rockies to probably steal some of those games

825
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:43,399
Speaker 7: in order to go over that total, and you need

826
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 7: them to probably steal some games and for the Podres

827
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:49,239
Speaker 7: to go under. So there's different approaches you could take.

828
00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:52,720
Speaker 7: You know, a lot of these bets are correlated. For example,

829
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:54,239
Speaker 7: if we went to the nl East, I have an

830
00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 7: opinion on every NLA and every nleaset team, but largely

831
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:00,319
Speaker 7: those opinions are all correlated to one or other, So

832
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 7: it's very important. I think that's another good note not

833
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 7: to overallocate within one specific division, because all of those

834
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 7: bets are going to kind of need one another to

835
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 7: hit in order to hit with each other.

836
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 3: I'm going to trigger everyone by bringing up the Dodgers.

837
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 2: Come on, I am Dodgers.

838
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 3: I personally don't think that they're well, I don't think

839
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:24,759
Speaker 3: that they're ruining baseball. But that's the question I want

840
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:28,359
Speaker 3: to ask right now World Series future. I don't think

841
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:29,920
Speaker 3: that their odds are going to get any better if

842
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 3: you like them. But in this current moment, would you

843
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 3: take the Dodgers or would you take the field?

844
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:35,799
Speaker 2: And why I.

845
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:38,279
Speaker 7: Would take the field because the field includes Seattle. I

846
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:40,399
Speaker 7: also think the Mets or the Brewers could be good

847
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 7: enough to potentially take on the Dodgers leave, they could

848
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 7: be good enough to come take on the Dodgers come

849
00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:48,800
Speaker 7: playoff time. You know, to your point about the dodds

850
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:52,239
Speaker 7: maybe ruining baseball, it actually does play in to how

851
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 7: this year play might play out. So we do have

852
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 7: Dodgers sign Kyle Tucker, they signed Edwin Diaz, right, they

853
00:38:57,640 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 7: had the best team, They signed the two best free agents.

854
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 7: You could make an argument that that's not good for

855
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:04,880
Speaker 7: the game. That said, it is good for the players.

856
00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 7: The players are getting the most money they're able to.

857
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 7: We should root for the players to make bank and

858
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:12,359
Speaker 7: maximize their value. But as a result of this, we

859
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:14,960
Speaker 7: may lock out next year. But as the result of

860
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:17,359
Speaker 7: the fact that we may lock out next year, you

861
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 7: may see teams be a little bit more aggressive this

862
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:22,959
Speaker 7: year in terms of going for it, or in terms

863
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:25,920
Speaker 7: of selling, or in terms of bringing prospects up, that

864
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 7: may be a year away. So, for example, the Brewers

865
00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:32,439
Speaker 7: have a nineteen year old kid named Jesus made who

866
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:34,439
Speaker 7: is one of the top prospects, if not the top

867
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,279
Speaker 7: prospect in the minor leagues. We saw Jan Soto come

868
00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:40,400
Speaker 7: up at nineteen. This kid, by all the noise he's made,

869
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:44,160
Speaker 7: has indicated that he may be ready this year. Well,

870
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 7: if we're locking out in twenty twenty seven and you're

871
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 7: not going to get that your service time for your

872
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 7: prospects anyway, and this kid is maybe ready to be

873
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 7: your major league shortstop by September, do you bring up

874
00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 7: a nineteen twenty year old to play shortstop in the

875
00:39:58,000 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 7: playoffs this year? I think if it's going to happen,

876
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:01,359
Speaker 7: it's going to be this year. And I think as

877
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:04,320
Speaker 7: a result, there is value in going against the Dodgers,

878
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 7: because everybody may be going for it if the next

879
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,800
Speaker 7: baseball is not happening for two years. In particularly, I

880
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:13,439
Speaker 7: think Seattle is the team worth betting on at about

881
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:15,359
Speaker 7: twelve to one or thirteen to one. So I am

882
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:18,399
Speaker 7: against the Dodgers specifically, if you want to bet though,

883
00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:20,800
Speaker 7: in the NL West Giants to finish in second place.

884
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:21,279
Speaker 5: I think the.

885
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:24,720
Speaker 7: Dodgers are a huge favorite to win the NL West,

886
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 7: and I make them like minus seven hundred. Other public

887
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:29,879
Speaker 7: projections have them at like minus three thousand. You know,

888
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 7: they make them like an edge at minus six hundred

889
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 7: to make the playoffs. So as a result, betting the

890
00:40:34,120 --> 00:40:36,120
Speaker 7: Giants to finish in second place, I think it's around

891
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 7: three to one is my favorite way to bet this division.

892
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 7: You're essentially just locking in the Dodgers in first place

893
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 7: and I'm against the Podres, so that leaves San Francisco

894
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 7: as the second place bet. So I take the field

895
00:40:48,280 --> 00:40:50,360
Speaker 7: to your Dodgers recommendation, but I would also think the

896
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 7: Giants to finish in second place behind them.

897
00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:53,399
Speaker 5: If you need an NL West bet.

898
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:57,120
Speaker 3: In particular, my follow up would be, there isn't really

899
00:40:57,200 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 3: such thing as like a dynasty in baseball, but you can.

900
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:02,480
Speaker 3: Are the Dodgers a dynasty in baseball?

901
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 5: Absolutely?

902
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 7: I don't even remember when the last time they lost

903
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:08,560
Speaker 7: the NLS, aside from when the Giants and them both

904
00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:11,080
Speaker 7: had one hundred plus wins and the Giants just had

905
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 7: more than them that year, They've they've either won the

906
00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 7: division or had one hundred wins every year for the

907
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:17,760
Speaker 7: past ten years. So and they've won two world titles

908
00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 7: I believe in that time, three world titles in that time.

909
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:22,080
Speaker 7: It's it's tough to count the COVID title as a

910
00:41:22,080 --> 00:41:24,440
Speaker 7: full title, so like two and a half titles in

911
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 7: that time.

912
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:25,879
Speaker 2: Yeah.

913
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:28,560
Speaker 7: No, this is absolutely a dynasty. I mean, if you're

914
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:31,279
Speaker 7: a threat to cancel the sport because you're too good,

915
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 7: I think you've already become a dynasty.

916
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:34,399
Speaker 5: If they win this.

917
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:36,640
Speaker 7: Year and make it three straight, they start to go

918
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 7: from dynasty to all time lists.

919
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:41,400
Speaker 3: Have they ruined the sport if that's the case, No, I.

920
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:42,839
Speaker 5: Don't think so. I don't think so.

921
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:45,680
Speaker 7: I think I think the teams, the Pirates owners ruined

922
00:41:45,680 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 7: the sport. You know the fact that people are talking

923
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 7: about the Pirates and should they trade Paul Skins, Well,

924
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:53,960
Speaker 7: they should fire their They the owner should be kicked out.

925
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:56,120
Speaker 5: Of the sport before Paul Skins gets traded. Like, what

926
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:56,760
Speaker 5: are we doing?

927
00:41:57,040 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 7: Why are we making this argument? The Daughters are doing

928
00:41:59,080 --> 00:42:01,880
Speaker 7: nothing wrong there playing the game. It's the other teams

929
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:03,640
Speaker 7: that are not playing the game, the other ownership groups

930
00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:04,359
Speaker 7: that are not playing the game.

931
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 2: With them.

932
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:07,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, amen to that, and it's very on brand for baseball,

933
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:10,120
Speaker 1: a sport that I love. But boy, do they know

934
00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:12,279
Speaker 1: how to shoot themselves in the foot when they gain

935
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:13,399
Speaker 1: the most popularity.

936
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:15,359
Speaker 2: Yes, it is so frustrating.

937
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:18,839
Speaker 1: It feels like this sport, to Kendri's point earlier, has

938
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 1: worked itself back into a conversation of right behind the NFL.

939
00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:25,160
Speaker 1: Whether it is or it's not, it's there is a

940
00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:27,440
Speaker 1: conversation to be had there and they go, oh, you

941
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:29,319
Speaker 1: know what, you know what will really help that? What

942
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:32,360
Speaker 1: if we stop playing games and get into a labor dispute?

943
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:33,319
Speaker 2: People love that shit.

944
00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:38,719
Speaker 1: Anyway, Let's talk about one of the other divisions I've

945
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 1: got my eye on, and I think there could be

946
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 1: some value here. The AL Central is one of the

947
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:47,320
Speaker 1: least competitive divisions in baseball. We all love the Tigers.

948
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 1: This year, Fangrafts has the Tigers is the only team

949
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:53,360
Speaker 1: in the division projected to have a winning record. I

950
00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:55,760
Speaker 1: really like this Royals team. You're talking about some of

951
00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 1: their young stars, so there could be a potential over

952
00:42:59,239 --> 00:42:59,920
Speaker 1: for them.

953
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:02,359
Speaker 2: The Twins might be undervalued here.

954
00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:06,640
Speaker 1: Where do you see the AL Central value within the

955
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:07,440
Speaker 1: Central Division?

956
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:09,680
Speaker 7: I think the Tigers could end up being the one

957
00:43:09,680 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 7: seed in the American League. I think the Tigers and

958
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:14,000
Speaker 7: the Mariners will be the top two seeds in the

959
00:43:14,040 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 7: American League. This is another team. To the point I

960
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:20,080
Speaker 7: was just talking about with Kendra about teams being aggressive

961
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 7: in terms of prospect promotion, Kevin McGonagall, I would be

962
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:25,080
Speaker 7: surprised at this point if he's not on the opening

963
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:27,600
Speaker 7: day roster for the Tigers. He's the number one prospect

964
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 7: in baseball. To the other points I was talking about

965
00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:32,920
Speaker 7: about swing decisions, that is his best skill. This is

966
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:34,560
Speaker 7: not a guy who's gonna come up and go thirty

967
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:35,600
Speaker 7: thirty like Bobby Wick.

968
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:36,520
Speaker 5: He doesn't have.

969
00:43:36,560 --> 00:43:40,120
Speaker 7: Insane power, insane speed, insane athleticism combo.

970
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:42,719
Speaker 5: His best skill is swinging at strikes.

971
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:45,280
Speaker 7: And not swinging at balls, and also playing short stop,

972
00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 7: and when he connects with the ball or when he

973
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 7: wants to put bat on the ball, he can do

974
00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:50,200
Speaker 7: it like They're not the.

975
00:43:50,120 --> 00:43:53,760
Speaker 5: Most esthetically pleasing skills.

976
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:55,720
Speaker 7: He's not gonna hit thirty five home runs and steal

977
00:43:55,760 --> 00:43:58,719
Speaker 7: thirty bases, but he will constantly give you good at

978
00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 7: bats and probably hit close.

979
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:02,840
Speaker 5: To three hundred with a high on base percentage and

980
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:03,480
Speaker 5: hit a ton.

981
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:06,840
Speaker 7: Of doubles, so he's probably going to be on the

982
00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:09,400
Speaker 7: opening day roster for the Tigers. I think if he's not,

983
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 7: it's going to be due to service time and he'll

984
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 7: be up in two weeks. But they have another guy

985
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 7: named Max Clark, who you might have seen messing up

986
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:19,320
Speaker 7: grotesquely in spring while wearing like ten chain necklaces around

987
00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:22,360
Speaker 7: his neck and sunglasses and having a camera crew on

988
00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:24,520
Speaker 7: him at all times, because the dude is like a

989
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 7: social media star in addition to trying to be a

990
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:30,839
Speaker 7: first round pick major League baseball player. But the Tigers

991
00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:34,280
Speaker 7: seem like they are going for it, and I think

992
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:36,799
Speaker 7: you don't normally see a team like this add a

993
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:38,719
Speaker 7: ton of talent in season. I think they will be

994
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:41,680
Speaker 7: willing to cash in prospects to put themselves in position

995
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:44,279
Speaker 7: to be a better team. Seattle's kind of already done

996
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:46,480
Speaker 7: those things. They've already gone out and cashed in prospects

997
00:44:46,520 --> 00:44:48,319
Speaker 7: for pieces who they want to have at the start

998
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:50,080
Speaker 7: of the year, and I think their team is almost complete,

999
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:51,920
Speaker 7: Like I would be happy if that team went into

1000
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,120
Speaker 7: the playoffs with the roster they have right now. The

1001
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:56,239
Speaker 7: Tigers do have a few spots where you look like

1002
00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:58,280
Speaker 7: you get an upgrade, and I think they will ultimately

1003
00:44:58,360 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 7: fill in those holes, especially if they're going to be

1004
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:01,800
Speaker 7: on top of the division. I bet this team to

1005
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 7: win the division last year. Obviously they ended up collapsing it.

1006
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:07,080
Speaker 7: It's one of the worst futures losses they've ever had.

1007
00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:09,480
Speaker 7: I am all over them again this year, and I

1008
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:11,600
Speaker 7: think I bet them at like plus one sixty five,

1009
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 7: and now we're close to even money or minus money,

1010
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 7: to the point where I don't even project value on

1011
00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 7: them anymore. The public projections say they're still value on

1012
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:20,640
Speaker 7: this team to win the division. I just don't at

1013
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 7: this point. So I think you can still bet them

1014
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:24,279
Speaker 7: to win the division, just most of the value has

1015
00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:27,400
Speaker 7: been sucked out of it. The Royals Brandon I do

1016
00:45:27,520 --> 00:45:29,919
Speaker 7: like as a potential playoff team. The problem with them

1017
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:33,879
Speaker 7: is roster depth. If they get anybody hurt, they don't

1018
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 7: have the prospects or the guys on their forty men

1019
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:38,880
Speaker 7: to necessarily replace them. So I do think there's a

1020
00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:40,600
Speaker 7: ton of talent there. They're just going to need to

1021
00:45:40,640 --> 00:45:43,319
Speaker 7: stay healthy. But I do make them a playoff edge.

1022
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:46,160
Speaker 7: I think I bet them to make the playoffs just

1023
00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:48,520
Speaker 7: before the season started and then the third team you

1024
00:45:48,560 --> 00:45:52,360
Speaker 7: mentioned is Minnesota. They're an interesting case because they have

1025
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:54,799
Speaker 7: an ownership battle going on or they ended up they

1026
00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 7: were going to sell the team. They ended up selling

1027
00:45:57,320 --> 00:46:00,200
Speaker 7: shares of the team to a minority ownership group. It

1028
00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:02,280
Speaker 7: doesn't seem like they're going to invest in their roster

1029
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:05,160
Speaker 7: at all. Even the minor league free agents and stuff

1030
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:07,320
Speaker 7: that they tried to sign in the offseason, none of

1031
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:09,319
Speaker 7: them ended up making the roster, and they cut all

1032
00:46:09,320 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 7: those guys, so they made no improvements to their roster.

1033
00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:14,880
Speaker 7: Buckston was able to stay healthy last year for the

1034
00:46:14,920 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 7: first time in forever. There's a lot of injury risk

1035
00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:19,680
Speaker 7: on this roster too. Pablo Lopez got hurt. Joe Ryan

1036
00:46:19,760 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 7: is probably going to get traded at some point. The

1037
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:25,759
Speaker 7: point is, the average public projection has this team at

1038
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:27,840
Speaker 7: seventy seven and a half wins. Their win total is

1039
00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:30,640
Speaker 7: seventy two point five, so everybody says go over. The

1040
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:33,120
Speaker 7: problem is, even though right now this is a seventy

1041
00:46:33,160 --> 00:46:35,920
Speaker 7: seven to seventy eight win team, in July, it's probably

1042
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:37,719
Speaker 7: not going to be. This was the most active team

1043
00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:39,960
Speaker 7: at the trade deadline last year. They'll probably be one of,

1044
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:42,480
Speaker 7: if not the most active teams in terms of selling

1045
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 7: off pieces this year. So you're looking at a team

1046
00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:47,400
Speaker 7: that right now maybe a seventy eight win team and

1047
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:49,560
Speaker 7: right now in the betting market, especially for opening Day

1048
00:46:49,560 --> 00:46:51,680
Speaker 7: woand up getting there. But right now in the betting

1049
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:53,799
Speaker 7: market in terms of a game by game basis, they

1050
00:46:53,800 --> 00:46:57,440
Speaker 7: may be undervalued. But from a season long perspective, I

1051
00:46:57,480 --> 00:46:59,880
Speaker 7: think the public projections are pointing in the wrong direction

1052
00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:04,040
Speaker 7: just because they're not able to accurately capture how much

1053
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 7: this team will sell in seasons.

1054
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:07,000
Speaker 5: So be careful.

1055
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:10,080
Speaker 7: You know, we talked about averaging out the public projections,

1056
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:12,719
Speaker 7: using that to help before because that's his opinion. You

1057
00:47:12,760 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 7: do have to weigh that against news and things that

1058
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:18,520
Speaker 7: are going on in the real world, and the news

1059
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:21,640
Speaker 7: is all pointing downward for the Twins, So do not

1060
00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:25,320
Speaker 7: trust the public projection there. I make them seventy point six,

1061
00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:27,520
Speaker 7: and I actually bet the under for that team.

1062
00:47:27,680 --> 00:47:31,480
Speaker 3: Okay, final question from me, not a betting question, but

1063
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:34,279
Speaker 3: I've been fighting with baseball fans since my show on

1064
00:47:34,320 --> 00:47:36,160
Speaker 3: Sunday where I said the Red Sox should come out

1065
00:47:36,160 --> 00:47:38,200
Speaker 3: with the cool food stuff that all the other teams

1066
00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:40,399
Speaker 3: have been coming out with. Yesterday, they announced that they

1067
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 3: were coming out with some stuff, but it caused such

1068
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:46,439
Speaker 3: an uproar with our callers and on social media about

1069
00:47:46,480 --> 00:47:48,919
Speaker 3: how people like me are ruining the baseball experience because

1070
00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 3: real baseball fans want to go to the game and

1071
00:47:51,160 --> 00:47:54,000
Speaker 3: they're content with their shitty hot dog. What are your

1072
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:57,759
Speaker 3: thoughts on all of these crazy MLB team food combinations

1073
00:47:57,760 --> 00:47:59,520
Speaker 3: and stuff that are coming out to drive people.

1074
00:47:59,320 --> 00:47:59,680
Speaker 2: To the park.

1075
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 3: Because I think it's incredible. I think it's awesome. I

1076
00:48:01,760 --> 00:48:03,840
Speaker 3: think it's helping grow the game and get people to

1077
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:06,879
Speaker 3: the park. But real baseball people are saying that I'm

1078
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 3: a loser and I'm ruining the game. What are your

1079
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:11,280
Speaker 3: thoughts on all of these crazy concoctions?

1080
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:15,000
Speaker 5: So you're not a loser. I love all the good

1081
00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:15,640
Speaker 5: food stuff.

1082
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:18,520
Speaker 7: I mean, I'm a Mets fan, so city Field I

1083
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:20,520
Speaker 7: feel like kind of started this trend a little bit.

1084
00:48:21,040 --> 00:48:22,680
Speaker 7: I will tell you though, Kender, the first time I

1085
00:48:22,719 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 7: ever went to Fenway Park, my dad bought tickets for us.

1086
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:26,680
Speaker 5: It was probably like seventeen or eighteen.

1087
00:48:26,680 --> 00:48:28,360
Speaker 7: We went to the Baseball Fame went up to Fenway

1088
00:48:28,640 --> 00:48:31,960
Speaker 7: amazing Birthday weekend. But our seats, our first seats that

1089
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 7: we try to sit in like kind of off center

1090
00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:36,840
Speaker 7: behind on plate. We go to fold down the seats,

1091
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 7: the seat doesn't fold all the way down. It gets

1092
00:48:38,680 --> 00:48:41,640
Speaker 7: stuck on the seat in front of it. So when

1093
00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:45,359
Speaker 7: you're talking about like people saying Baseball's Fenway Park doesn't

1094
00:48:45,360 --> 00:48:47,120
Speaker 7: even have seats that work, and most of the seats

1095
00:48:47,120 --> 00:48:49,600
Speaker 7: are facing like right field or left field, would you

1096
00:48:49,680 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 7: rather have a seat facing towards home plate in the

1097
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:52,680
Speaker 7: picture Sox.

1098
00:48:52,440 --> 00:48:54,600
Speaker 5: Fans are going to cancel you, I assume where it's

1099
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:55,520
Speaker 5: a baseball tradition.

1100
00:48:56,200 --> 00:48:59,120
Speaker 7: No, I think I think the food and any way

1101
00:48:59,120 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 7: you could get people into sitting coming to the ballpark.

1102
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:03,360
Speaker 7: Anyway you could get people interested in not just watching

1103
00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:05,440
Speaker 7: the game on TV, getting out of the house, getting

1104
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:07,440
Speaker 7: in the sun for today, but also you know, moving

1105
00:49:07,440 --> 00:49:09,319
Speaker 7: around the park, trying some good food, seeing all the

1106
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 7: history that's on the walls. Because I have no problem

1107
00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:14,520
Speaker 7: with people getting up during a game and checking out,

1108
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:16,359
Speaker 7: like all of the war inside of the ballparks one

1109
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 7: of the best experiences I've ever had. And we'll move

1110
00:49:18,600 --> 00:49:20,080
Speaker 7: on to Brandon's question in a second, but I do

1111
00:49:20,120 --> 00:49:22,440
Speaker 7: want to share this story. I went to Minnesota for

1112
00:49:22,440 --> 00:49:24,319
Speaker 7: a wedding. My wife and I went to a Twins game.

1113
00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:26,560
Speaker 7: We walked around the stadium before the game. There's a

1114
00:49:26,600 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 7: bar on the top floor. I hope she's still there.

1115
00:49:28,560 --> 00:49:30,240
Speaker 7: If you go to a Twins game this year, please

1116
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:32,480
Speaker 7: try to visit her. Her name is Sue Nelson. She

1117
00:49:32,600 --> 00:49:35,840
Speaker 7: was the organist in the stadium. We met Sue. She

1118
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 7: plays her organ in a bar at the top of

1119
00:49:38,120 --> 00:49:41,160
Speaker 7: the stadium. Introduced ourselves, told her how cool she was.

1120
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:43,040
Speaker 7: We were just watching it for a bit. She goes

1121
00:49:43,080 --> 00:49:45,560
Speaker 7: hold on, tells the bartender she's taking a break, and

1122
00:49:45,640 --> 00:49:48,240
Speaker 7: this woman in her eighties takes me and my wife

1123
00:49:48,280 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 7: and walks us all the way around the stadium, takes

1124
00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:53,879
Speaker 7: us into every special access place you can go. But

1125
00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:57,239
Speaker 7: more importantly, she's showing us the history of Minnesota town

1126
00:49:57,280 --> 00:49:59,759
Speaker 7: Ball and all of the history of baseball and it's

1127
00:50:00,040 --> 00:50:01,680
Speaker 7: actions to Minnesota and.

1128
00:50:01,640 --> 00:50:02,520
Speaker 5: All of the history.

1129
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:06,960
Speaker 7: And I'm going to find memorability that they have in

1130
00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:09,840
Speaker 7: the stadium. So my point is there's so much history

1131
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:11,920
Speaker 7: and memorabilia and cool things to look at in a

1132
00:50:11,960 --> 00:50:15,000
Speaker 7: stadium that what is the issue with people getting up

1133
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 7: to get food and walk around and look at that

1134
00:50:17,239 --> 00:50:19,480
Speaker 7: stuff while they're doing it, walk around the ball park

1135
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:21,880
Speaker 7: toward the ballpark. That's my only issu shoot the pitchclock

1136
00:50:21,960 --> 00:50:24,360
Speaker 7: is they will removed thirty minutes from every game to

1137
00:50:24,440 --> 00:50:26,400
Speaker 7: do that stuff and enjoy yourselves in the building.

1138
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:28,640
Speaker 5: So not a loser take whatsoever.

1139
00:50:28,719 --> 00:50:30,319
Speaker 7: I think anything you can do to get people in

1140
00:50:30,360 --> 00:50:31,799
Speaker 7: the ballpark is a good sign.

1141
00:50:32,120 --> 00:50:34,560
Speaker 5: Let me get my mobster poutine in peace.

1142
00:50:35,800 --> 00:50:41,000
Speaker 1: Being first of all, being upset about a creative hot dog.

1143
00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:43,439
Speaker 3: People want, didn't you kill me, dude.

1144
00:50:43,719 --> 00:50:46,480
Speaker 2: Lobster French fries? Whatever?

1145
00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:51,759
Speaker 1: Wild take be that upset about a doughnut on top

1146
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:52,520
Speaker 1: of a milkshake.

1147
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 3: Literally, we're telling me to go back to Jacksonville and

1148
00:50:56,680 --> 00:50:59,480
Speaker 3: shut up because I wasn't a real sports fan and

1149
00:50:59,520 --> 00:51:01,840
Speaker 3: that I should go home and enjoy my pool in

1150
00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:03,440
Speaker 3: my stadium and shut up.

1151
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:09,920
Speaker 5: Well, wow, Franks are just a hot talk they really are.

1152
00:51:10,120 --> 00:51:10,560
Speaker 4: Thank you.

1153
00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:14,440
Speaker 1: And then, by the way, after that whole story, that

1154
00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:19,640
Speaker 1: moving story about the old lady at the Twins ballpark,

1155
00:51:21,400 --> 00:51:22,680
Speaker 1: let me remind you.

1156
00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:23,439
Speaker 2: So, what's her name again?

1157
00:51:24,239 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 5: Nelson?

1158
00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:25,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, Sue Nelson.

1159
00:51:26,320 --> 00:51:29,400
Speaker 7: Sue Nelson used to play the organ for the Minnesota

1160
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:31,600
Speaker 7: north Stars when they were still in their old building.

1161
00:51:31,600 --> 00:51:33,560
Speaker 7: That's how long she's been around the Minnesota sports scene.

1162
00:51:33,600 --> 00:51:35,799
Speaker 7: Absolute legend. If you go to a Twins game this year,

1163
00:51:35,840 --> 00:51:37,560
Speaker 7: go find her one of the coolest people I've ever

1164
00:51:37,600 --> 00:51:38,280
Speaker 7: met in the stadium.

1165
00:51:38,320 --> 00:51:40,440
Speaker 1: And how does Sean say thank you? He bet the

1166
00:51:40,520 --> 00:51:46,279
Speaker 1: Twins under come on, Sean average move. All right, it's

1167
00:51:46,280 --> 00:51:50,160
Speaker 1: time to get to our plant the Flag segment, presented

1168
00:51:50,320 --> 00:51:53,600
Speaker 1: by Draft Kings. We are going to plant our flag

1169
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:55,040
Speaker 1: on a baseball team.

1170
00:51:57,640 --> 00:52:00,560
Speaker 5: Up, I'm trying to plant my flag here. You're really

1171
00:52:00,600 --> 00:52:01,920
Speaker 5: planning your flag in that day.

1172
00:52:02,400 --> 00:52:06,480
Speaker 1: We'll start with our guests, Sean Zarillo, your favorite team

1173
00:52:06,640 --> 00:52:08,880
Speaker 1: bet of the Year, presented by DK.

1174
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:11,160
Speaker 7: Yeah, I'm gonna give out two because I talked about

1175
00:52:11,160 --> 00:52:13,560
Speaker 7: it five times that the Mariner's Division is the best

1176
00:52:13,560 --> 00:52:15,640
Speaker 7: bet on the board. My favorite win total over we

1177
00:52:15,640 --> 00:52:17,560
Speaker 7: didn't get to them, the Marlins over seventy two and

1178
00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:17,839
Speaker 7: a half.

1179
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:19,160
Speaker 5: You could take that up to seventy five.

1180
00:52:19,600 --> 00:52:23,960
Speaker 3: Kendra, I think I'm gonna switch gears here and I'm going.

1181
00:52:23,760 --> 00:52:26,600
Speaker 2: To go with Nelson.

1182
00:52:27,200 --> 00:52:27,920
Speaker 1: No, I'm gonna go.

1183
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:30,120
Speaker 3: Yes, I'm gonna go with my boy Paul Skians to

1184
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:33,840
Speaker 3: make the postseason plus two twenty five on DraftKings.

1185
00:52:34,200 --> 00:52:35,240
Speaker 2: Now, that would be fun.

1186
00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:39,000
Speaker 1: We all need that, all right, Pirates into the postseason.

1187
00:52:39,480 --> 00:52:43,720
Speaker 1: You've got Sean on the Mariners Division. Marlin's over seventy

1188
00:52:43,719 --> 00:52:46,480
Speaker 1: two and a half wins. I'm gonna take Seawn's advice here.

1189
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:50,400
Speaker 1: He says that we should we should shade ourselves towards

1190
00:52:50,440 --> 00:52:51,040
Speaker 1: the under.

1191
00:52:51,480 --> 00:52:52,239
Speaker 2: I'm gonna do that.

1192
00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:54,680
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Astros under eighty six and a

1193
00:52:54,719 --> 00:52:57,160
Speaker 1: half wins. I think this number is too close to

1194
00:52:57,200 --> 00:53:00,319
Speaker 1: the ceiling for a team that is trending down. They

1195
00:53:00,320 --> 00:53:03,800
Speaker 1: missed the playoffs last year. They have Hunter Brown, he's great.

1196
00:53:03,880 --> 00:53:07,160
Speaker 1: Behind that, it's a giant question mark. They lost fran Barveldez.

1197
00:53:07,640 --> 00:53:10,240
Speaker 1: Jeremy Painea's status. It looks like he might be available

1198
00:53:10,239 --> 00:53:12,760
Speaker 1: for opening Day, but that's up in the air loaded

1199
00:53:12,760 --> 00:53:17,960
Speaker 1: division and partially correlated to Shawn's love for the Seattle

1200
00:53:18,000 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 1: Mariners as well. So I'll go under eighty six and

1201
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:22,879
Speaker 1: a half wins for the Houston Astros. So I get

1202
00:53:22,920 --> 00:53:25,680
Speaker 1: a rubber stamp of approval because I'm going to bet

1203
00:53:25,719 --> 00:53:27,360
Speaker 1: this the second we end this podcast.

1204
00:53:27,440 --> 00:53:28,040
Speaker 2: If I get to.

1205
00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:30,279
Speaker 7: Undred percent, that's my favorite win total under. Right now,

1206
00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:32,399
Speaker 7: I just I gave the favorite win total over out.

1207
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:35,920
Speaker 7: But if I was picking one under it's the astros.

1208
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:36,520
Speaker 2: Phenomenal that'll do it.

1209
00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:39,800
Speaker 1: For today's episode special thanks to our producers David Payne

1210
00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:42,920
Speaker 1: and Gifford Gold, Stats Hoound Evan Abrams, and our wonderful

1211
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:47,000
Speaker 1: guest from the Payoff Pitch podcast, shan Zaillo. The Favorites

1212
00:53:47,000 --> 00:53:49,520
Speaker 1: will return on Thursday afternoon, and we might even be

1213
00:53:49,520 --> 00:53:53,560
Speaker 1: able to dig Stucky out of March Madness Mayhem. You

1214
00:53:53,560 --> 00:53:55,680
Speaker 1: can find it right here on the Action Network YouTube

1215
00:53:55,719 --> 00:53:59,200
Speaker 1: page or wherever you download your favorite podcasts. Our Show Today,

1216
00:53:59,200 --> 00:54:02,920
Speaker 1: presented by Draft King, the Crown is yours happy baseball season.

1217
00:54:13,520 --> 00:54:18,040
Speaker 5: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1218
00:54:18,080 --> 00:54:20,840
Speaker 5: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1219
00:54:20,880 --> 00:54:23,960
Speaker 5: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler