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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Blue Big Day Baker at podcast. Good morning,

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Speaker 2: It's Tuesday, the seventeenth of February. I'm Caroline Hepga in

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Speaker 2: London and.

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Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Caroline Brussels. Coming up today. UK unemployment rises

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Speaker 1: to the highest level in five years as traders bet

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Speaker 1: on more interest rate cuts from the Bank of England.

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Speaker 2: American and Iranian negotiators meet in Geneva as President Trump

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Speaker 2: warns of consequences if Tehran doesn't make a deal.

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Speaker 1: Plus, India and Germany become the latest countries to debate

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Speaker 1: age limits for social media as the backlash to inappropriate

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Speaker 1: AI content grows.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 1: The UK's jobless rate has risen to its highest in

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Speaker 1: five years as more signs emerge of the labor market weakening.

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Speaker 1: Official data for December showed the unemployment rate ticking up

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Speaker 1: to five point two percent in the last three months

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Speaker 1: of twenty twenty five. Growth also slowed, with the Bank

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Speaker 1: of England's preferred measure of private sector pay slowing to

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Speaker 1: growth of three point four percent. That's the lowest level

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Speaker 1: in over five years. Bloomberg's Chief UK economist Dan Hansen

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Speaker 1: says it's not yet time to ring alarm bells, but.

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Speaker 3: The job's market is still loosening. There's no doubts about that.

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Speaker 3: But I think we're not yet at a stage where

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Speaker 3: this looks like it's what I would say snowballing, which

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Speaker 3: is what can happen with the jobs market. It can

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Speaker 3: move very very quickly, so I think that's the main takeaway. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: we have wages cooling, but that was broadly as expected.

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Speaker 3: I think the main surprise this morning is on the

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Speaker 3: unemployment rate.

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Speaker 1: Dan Hanson was speaking as traders have increased bets on

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Speaker 1: raycots from the Bank of England, with two twenty five

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Speaker 1: basis point reductions now priced in for this year. The

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Speaker 1: pound was also weakened against the dollar.

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Speaker 2: Two high profile sets of negotiations are taking place today

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Speaker 2: in Geneva, the US and Ivana holding a second round

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Speaker 2: of nuclear talks. US Sector of State Marco Rubiu says

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Speaker 2: he's hopeful Tevan and Washington can broke it and agree

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Speaker 2: on Air Force one. President Trump said that he will

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Speaker 2: be following the talks closely.

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Speaker 3: So I'll be involved in those talks. Indirectly, and they'll

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Speaker 3: be very important and we'll see what can happen.

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Speaker 4: And it spen typically run to very jump negotiating, and

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Speaker 4: I think.

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Speaker 1: They want to make a deal.

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Speaker 4: I don't think they want the consequences of not making

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Speaker 4: a deal.

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Speaker 1: They want to make a deal.

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Speaker 2: President Trump has moved forces to the region and threatened

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Speaker 2: to strike Iran unless it agrees to a deal curbing

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Speaker 2: its nuclear program. Tehran has begun conducting military drills around

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Speaker 2: the Straits of hor moves, according to the Tasnim news agency,

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Speaker 2: and Iran's foreign minister Abasar Ragchi did hold talks with

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Speaker 2: the head of the UNS Atomic Watchdog on Monday, but

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Speaker 2: facing that American pressure, he said in a social media

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Speaker 2: post that there would be no submission before threats well.

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Speaker 1: Meanwhile, expectations are low for any breakthrough on discussions to

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Speaker 1: end the war in Ukraine, also taking place in Geneva.

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Speaker 1: Western officials and analysts say President Vladimir Putin believes time

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Speaker 1: is on his side and the support for Ukraine will

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Speaker 1: peter out. Spokesperson for President Putin, Dmitri Paskov, says Russia

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Speaker 1: is taking the talk seriously.

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Speaker 4: This time.

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Speaker 5: We intend to discuss a broader range of issues related

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Speaker 5: to the territories and other matters connected to our demands.

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Speaker 5: The presence of the chief negotiator, that is Medinski, is

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Speaker 5: now essential. Indeed, the delegation will now be expanded this time.

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Speaker 5: In addition to Medinski, Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin and other

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Speaker 5: officials will be there.

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Speaker 1: Dmitriy Pastov, speaking via a translator. Russia has spent months

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Speaker 1: repeatedly striking Ukrainian cities, leaving hundreds of thousands without power,

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Speaker 1: in a bid to bring the country to its knees,

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Speaker 1: but Bloomberg analysis suggests the wars that human and economic

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Speaker 1: cost to Russia is rising, especially in border regions. Both

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Speaker 1: sides say any potential progress today would need to be

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Speaker 1: agreed by their respective leaders.

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Speaker 2: In other news, whose India and Germany have become the

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Speaker 2: latest countries to discuss placing age limits on social media use.

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Speaker 2: India's technology minister says New Delhi is talking to tech

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Speaker 2: companies about the issue. It comes as Germany looks to

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Speaker 2: set limits to access when it comes to social media

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Speaker 2: platforms for people under sixteen. After the Chancellor of Friedrich

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Speaker 2: Mertz's coalition partners announced their support for the proposal. Similar

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Speaker 2: discussions are being had in countries including France, the UK,

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Speaker 2: and Ireland, which could set the stage for a new

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Speaker 2: showdown with some of the biggest US companies. Meanwhile, Spain's

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Speaker 2: Prime minister says his government will ask prosecutors to open

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Speaker 2: a probe into x Meta and TikTok over possible crimes

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Speaker 2: through the creation and distribution of child pornography using AI.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg has learned that Eon Mosk's SpaceX is competing in

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Speaker 1: a US military contest to produce autonomous drones. The company

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Speaker 1: and its subsidiary Xai are hoping to break into the

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Speaker 1: weapons second there by winning a secret of one hundred

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Speaker 1: million dollar contest to build voice activated drones. SpaceX and

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Speaker 1: Xai didn't respond to requests for comment. The news comes

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Speaker 1: as Anthropics talks about extending a contract with the Pentagon

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Speaker 1: are being held up. Boom We're going to stands. The

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Speaker 1: company wants guardrails that prevent Claude from being used to

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Speaker 1: develop weapons or to spy on Americans.

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Speaker 2: The mining giant BHP posted bumper profits thanks to a

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Speaker 2: surge and demand for copper and a broader metals rally.

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Speaker 2: Earnings rose twenty two percent year on year as a

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Speaker 2: year's long effort to boost copper production paid off. According

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Speaker 2: to the firm CFO and DITA pand BHP is set

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Speaker 2: to boost its offering of the metal even further.

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Speaker 6: For the first time. Fifty percent more than just about

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Speaker 6: fifty percent of our earnings EBITDA came from copper and

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Speaker 6: performance across our essets has been very good, to take

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Speaker 6: example of Escondida, which is our largest mine that we

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Speaker 6: run in Chile. We are revising the guidance up for

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Speaker 6: this year and next year.

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Speaker 2: BHP's Danti Dapant. They're speaking after the latest earnings announcement.

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Speaker 2: After the news, BHP shares in Sydney hit a record high.

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Speaker 2: In London, shares up as much as three point seven percent.

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Speaker 1: The executive chairman of Hyatt Hotels, Tom Pritzker, says he's

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Speaker 1: retiring from his position at the company and won't stand

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Speaker 1: for re election to its board. Pritzker cited an association

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Speaker 1: with the disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein and his partner Gallaine Maxwell.

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Speaker 1: In a statement, he said he quote exercised terrible judgment

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Speaker 1: in maintaining contact with them and feels deep sorrow for

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Speaker 1: the pain they inflicted on their victims. I had named

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Speaker 1: its president and CEO, Mark Hopplomazian to succeed Pritzker as chairman,

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Speaker 1: effective immediately.

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Speaker 2: And those are our top stories for you this morning.

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Speaker 2: Looking at the markets, you have pinstocks are up by

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Speaker 2: two tenths of one percent fifty one hundred and four

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Speaker 2: tenths of one percent. The pound is still weaker after

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Speaker 2: the UK jobs figures out this morning, down three tens

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Speaker 2: of one percent one thirty five eighty eight. Looking at

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Speaker 2: stop futures for the US market open as that future

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Speaker 2: is down by half of one percent. We had lackluster

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Speaker 2: trading in Asia because of the lunar New Year holidays,

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Speaker 2: very thin trading. In terms of the bond market. US

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Speaker 2: yields on the tenure approaching four percent four spot zero

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Speaker 2: two percent, so down three basis points of four ten

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Speaker 2: year treasuries. UK gilts down four basis points are four

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Speaker 2: thirty six and you have gold weeker one point four percent.

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Speaker 2: Oil also down by more than one percent for brain

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Speaker 2: creed futures, those are the market.

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Speaker 3: Stephen.

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Speaker 1: In a moment, we'll dig into the detail of the

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Speaker 1: latest UK jobs data plus what to expect from today's

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Speaker 1: nuclear talks in Geneva. But another story that we've been

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Speaker 1: reading this morning about how the world has changed since

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Speaker 1: the era of lean In and Girl Boss. Alice Rab's

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Speaker 1: been writing about this way new wave of books by

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Speaker 1: women about their relationship with work and Heather focusing on

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Speaker 1: the pleasures of giving up the likes of a year

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Speaker 1: of nothing life after our Ambition and Exit interview look

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Speaker 1: at the excesses of hustle culture that was epitomized by

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Speaker 1: Cheryl Sandberg's Manual, which sold millions of copies in the

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Speaker 1: twenty tens. The neuro volumes are more focused on a

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Speaker 1: harsher reality, dealing with workplace sexism, balancing pregnancy and motherhood

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Speaker 1: with demanding jobs. And this is a big, perhaps bigger

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Speaker 1: rethink out of the zeitgeist which has changed now. But

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Speaker 1: it's also reflective of something that's emerging in the data

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Speaker 1: as well, of more women pulling back from ambition for promotion.

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Speaker 1: The gender pay gap is widening. The picture in the

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Speaker 1: reality looks a lot bleaker than perhaps we're painted in

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Speaker 1: those era of lean In.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look, I remember when Sandberg's book came out. I

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Speaker 2: was in the US and there was just such a frenzy.

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Speaker 2: She was a leading women in business. She was saying,

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Speaker 2: you know, this guy's the limit for women. On the

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Speaker 2: other hand, there was quite a lot of criticism even

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Speaker 2: at the time that maybe she was blind to the

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Speaker 2: kind of systemic issues that even her own readers were facing.

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Speaker 2: But I kind of feel like read it and weep

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Speaker 2: now is a pendulum swinging too far the other way?

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Speaker 2: Women saying that they increasingly doubt whether they can actually

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Speaker 2: get promoted and move up, and somehow, you know, child

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Speaker 2: rearing being the solution to that. I have lots of

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Speaker 2: questions about this. We surely people should have more choices,

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Speaker 2: not fewer.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the kind of idea that Alice bloaws

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Speaker 1: in her piece that there was an exception between twenty

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Speaker 1: thirteen and twenty twenty to the trend certainly food for

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Speaker 1: thought as well. We'll put a link to that article

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Speaker 1: in our podcast show notes.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's bring you more now on the latest UK

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Speaker 2: job's data, which shows signs of weakening. The pound has

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Speaker 2: also dropped as Trader's price in more interest rate cuts

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Speaker 2: on the Bank of England are UK Economy reporter Arena

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Speaker 2: Angel joins us now for more arena. Good to have

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Speaker 2: you How significant then is the weakness in this data.

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Speaker 4: Well, the data does paint a dire picture, but it's

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Speaker 4: important to note, you know, it's not a step change,

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Speaker 4: there's no snowball effects. Rather, it confirms the jobs market

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Speaker 4: is unraveling as it's been you know.

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Speaker 6: For the for the last few months.

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Speaker 4: UK unemployment has climbed, that was a surprise, to five

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Speaker 4: point two percent, and that's the highest since the pandemic.

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Speaker 4: And then pay growth, private sector pay growth, the measure

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Speaker 4: the measure that is truck by the Bank of England,

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Speaker 4: that one's low to a five year low of three

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Speaker 4: point four percent. However, there are some signs of stability.

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Speaker 4: You know, payrolls fell less than expected and vacancye is

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Speaker 4: even you know, increased bits in the three months to January.

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Speaker 1: You've been looking in particular arena, the trend of youth

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Speaker 1: unemployment continuing to rise there as well, what we know

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Speaker 1: about the factors driving that.

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Speaker 4: That's right. So you know, whilst the when you know,

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Speaker 4: could you know, overall unemployment that's you know, ticked up

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Speaker 4: a bit. When it comes to youth unemployment, you know,

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Speaker 4: that's the worst in over a decade. So you know,

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Speaker 4: one in eight sixteen to twenty four year olds is unemployed,

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Speaker 4: and it seems like young people have been bearing the

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Speaker 4: brunt of the job slowed down after labor increased employment costs,

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Speaker 4: you know, hiring I contributions and large increases in the

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Speaker 4: minimum wage. These discouraged hiring for graduate roles and also

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Speaker 4: discouraged hiring in sectors like retail and hospitality, and these

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Speaker 4: are of course the ones that employ a large number

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Speaker 4: of young people. Interestingly, the UK seems to be diverging

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Speaker 4: from the European Union when it comes to youth unemployment trends.

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Speaker 4: So over where you are, Stephen, youth unemployment has been

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Speaker 4: coming down in recent years and it's nowhere near pandemic levels.

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Speaker 4: So it's interesting to see this difference playing out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that is very interesting. And also this

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Speaker 2: ied that the Bank of f England the traders are

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Speaker 2: uprising into twenty five basis point right, Cauds. Also for

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Speaker 2: this year, you know, many of our guests talking about

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Speaker 2: whether that might take up at some point to three

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Speaker 2: or not. We shall see. I mean, thanks so much

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Speaker 2: for your time, thanks for being with us our UK

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Speaker 2: Economy Report. Arena and girl stay with US from Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Daybaqube coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: The talks between Iranian and American officials are taking place

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Speaker 1: today in Geneva over efforts to curb Tehran's nuclear program.

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Speaker 1: It's the second round of negotiations this month, as the

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Speaker 1: US has continued to build up its military presence in

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Speaker 1: the region. Bloomberg's Gonor mota Vali, who leads our coverage

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Speaker 1: of Iran, joins US now for more. Goner, how much

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Speaker 1: pressure is Tehran under them to come to an agreement

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Speaker 1: with the US given the American threat of air strikes.

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Speaker 7: I think the pressure is tremendous. I think on if

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Speaker 7: you look at if you look at Iran, at the

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Speaker 7: way that the situation for Iran has changed over the

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Speaker 7: past couple of years, it's quite extraordinary the shift in

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Speaker 7: the country's fortunes. If you look at regionally, they don't

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Speaker 7: have the same level of strength in their access of

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Speaker 7: resistance around the region. Their economy is weakening successively, currency

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Speaker 7: crashes every month, inflation spiraling. That's a large part to

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Speaker 7: do with sanctions, and other part is to do with

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Speaker 7: endemic mismanagement. And this relationship with the US obviously is

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Speaker 7: getting increasingly hostile, and the situation for the islat Republic,

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Speaker 7: I would say is extremely fragile right now in.

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Speaker 2: Terms of where the compromises could be found. Then in

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Speaker 2: terms of these negotiations and the nuclear issues, where do

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Speaker 2: you think they might be?

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Speaker 7: So I think just looking at the signals we've been getting,

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Speaker 7: the interesting thing that I think is this time around

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Speaker 7: the Trump administration, and even if you look at what

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Speaker 7: US Secretary of State Marc Rubio was saying yesterday, you know,

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Speaker 7: this is someone who's been extremely hostile towards the Republic

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Speaker 7: throughout his political career, and yet yesterday he was saying

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Speaker 7: that he was hopeful with all the caveats he has

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Speaker 7: and reservations he has about dealing with the Islamic Republic,

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Speaker 7: he said, I'm hopeful that we can get to a deal.

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Speaker 7: And I think there are areas in which they are

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Speaker 7: willing to get to a compromise. And my sense is

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Speaker 7: that on the Iranian side, they're willing to provide attractive

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Speaker 7: financial incentives for the Trump administration. And we had something

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Speaker 7: similar back last year around April last year, when we

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Speaker 7: had those around the first attempt between this second Trump

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Speaker 7: administration before the Israeli attacks. In June, when Arakchi, the

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Speaker 7: Iranian foreign minister, met Steve Witkoff for the first time,

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Speaker 7: he wrote pend an op ed for one of the

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Speaker 7: big US papers, saying, our economy is a trillion dollar

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Speaker 7: opportunity for the US. And I think that sentiment still

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Speaker 7: stands because I think they feel that they know what

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Speaker 7: they need to do to entice Donald Trump, the US President.

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Speaker 7: I think the issue they have right now is they

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Speaker 7: have a lot of hardline within the Iranian establishment itself

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Speaker 7: that just resent the idea altogether of speaking to the Americans,

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Speaker 7: but at the same time understand that if they don't,

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Speaker 7: there's real peril on the horizon for them.

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Speaker 1: Color How does these do these negotiations play into the

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Speaker 1: story of the protests in Iran as well? I mean,

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Speaker 1: how do those pressures combine when we're thinking about what

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Speaker 1: happens next.

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Speaker 7: I think that's a really important question, and it's something

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Speaker 7: that obviously when we kind of get into the weeds

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Speaker 7: of the geopolitics and the diplomatic back and forth, that

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Speaker 7: we kind of forget the fact that we had this

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Speaker 7: massive uprising, this huge expression of dissent and opposition to

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Speaker 7: the current system. And I think the truth is, I

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Speaker 7: think a lot of people in Iran will be disappointed,

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Speaker 7: people who are very opposed to the current regime, because

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Speaker 7: they will interpret any success in these talks and any

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Speaker 7: deal as just buying time for a system, a regime

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Speaker 7: of political rule that simply hasn't been serving people's needs

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Speaker 7: for a.

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Speaker 2: Very long time.

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Speaker 7: And so, you know, I think domestically there are going

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Speaker 7: to be people who are going to be kind of

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Speaker 7: divided quite fiercely over this, and I think, on the

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Speaker 7: other hand, there are people who do just want to

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Speaker 7: be able to get along with their lives, who need

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Speaker 7: who desperately need economic relief and don't care which way

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Speaker 7: it comes.

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