WEBVTT - Will Protests Spread The Virus? 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:08.800 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day eighty five 0:00:09.160 --> 0:00:13.960 since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Our main story. 0:00:15.160 --> 0:00:18.560 Public health officials have been working hard to reopen the US, 0:00:19.239 --> 0:00:21.880 and social distancing has been the guiding principle and how 0:00:21.920 --> 0:00:25.159 to get there. But no one could have foreseen the 0:00:25.200 --> 0:00:29.920 densely packed protests after George Floyd's death in police custody. 0:00:31.040 --> 0:00:33.839 The tragedy has plunged the country into a painful re 0:00:33.920 --> 0:00:39.280 examination of racism and police brutality, and it has brought 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:43.040 tens of thousands of people into close contact on the streets, 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:46.879 all in the wake of months of mounting evidence that 0:00:47.000 --> 0:00:51.680 the pandemic has taken a disproportionate toll on minorities and 0:00:51.760 --> 0:00:56.320 people of color. Could the protests now set off a 0:00:56.520 --> 0:01:01.360 new wave of infections? Michelle Cortes spoke to scientists about 0:01:01.520 --> 0:01:12.720 just that, But first, here's what happened today. The fight 0:01:12.880 --> 0:01:17.120 terrain in the pandemic continues. The US now says it 0:01:17.200 --> 0:01:20.560 is developing a test that can simultaneously check for seasonal 0:01:20.560 --> 0:01:25.920 influenza and COVID nineteen that could help health authorities determine 0:01:25.959 --> 0:01:28.759 whether there may be a second wave of the coronavirus 0:01:29.280 --> 0:01:33.720 later this year, and in the latest sign that many 0:01:33.760 --> 0:01:36.800 people are trying to get back to normal life, American 0:01:36.840 --> 0:01:41.720 Airlines said it would boost July flights sev as US 0:01:41.840 --> 0:01:45.840 travelers freed from shelter and place orders begin to return 0:01:45.920 --> 0:01:50.680 to the skies. July's planned four thousand daily flights would 0:01:50.720 --> 0:01:55.720 nearly double this month's take off and landings. Still, that 0:01:55.760 --> 0:02:00.600 would amount to only about of the traffic flowing July. 0:02:02.600 --> 0:02:06.200 Even his, conditions in the pandemics epicenter New York City 0:02:06.480 --> 0:02:10.360 continue to improve, and the city makes plans to gradually reopen. 0:02:11.040 --> 0:02:13.840 Elsewhere around the globe, the news is not so good. 0:02:14.840 --> 0:02:19.040 Iran reported its highest number of daily cases yet, and 0:02:19.280 --> 0:02:22.880 Mexico and Brazil each had a record increase in deaths. 0:02:27.639 --> 0:02:33.480 And now our main story mass protests and the coronavirus. 0:02:34.600 --> 0:02:37.040 Though it will take weeks for any impact of the 0:02:37.080 --> 0:02:40.600 protests to show up in the data, US health officials 0:02:40.680 --> 0:02:46.919 are concerned chanting, singing, and prolonged exposure impact conditions may 0:02:46.960 --> 0:02:51.520 be a recipe for spreading the virus, especially when some 0:02:51.560 --> 0:02:57.320 protesters aren't wearing masks. I spoke to Michelle Cortez about 0:02:57.360 --> 0:03:04.000 this latest worry. Over the last few weeks, the US 0:03:04.120 --> 0:03:07.000 has not only continued to be in the grip of 0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:11.400 the coronavirus pandemic, but also has seen dozens of protests 0:03:11.400 --> 0:03:14.960 in cities throughout the country. Just to start off very broadly, 0:03:15.360 --> 0:03:20.240 how is one affecting the other? So we had gotten 0:03:20.280 --> 0:03:23.200 to the point with the coronavirus outbreak that things were 0:03:23.200 --> 0:03:26.720 starting to warm up, people were getting outside more. We 0:03:26.880 --> 0:03:31.959 flattened the curve by following social distancing guidelines, and public 0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:34.000 health officials thought we could do this in a very 0:03:34.040 --> 0:03:37.440 controlled and careful way, that we could test people now 0:03:37.480 --> 0:03:40.760 that we have tests, track their contacts, and make sure 0:03:40.800 --> 0:03:43.800 that the virus doesn't get out of control again. The 0:03:43.880 --> 0:03:47.000 problem is is that with these protests and these masses 0:03:47.000 --> 0:03:50.080 of people coming together, any sense of control is just 0:03:50.160 --> 0:03:54.680 out the window. And so as health officials are watching 0:03:54.720 --> 0:03:58.360 these protests happen from a health perspective and in the 0:03:58.400 --> 0:04:02.240 context of the coronavirus, what has been their response to 0:04:02.320 --> 0:04:06.320 the protests. Public health officials were immediately concerned about the 0:04:06.320 --> 0:04:09.520 coronavirus outbreak some people because of what they do with 0:04:09.600 --> 0:04:12.120 their day to day jobs. They realized as soon as 0:04:12.160 --> 0:04:15.080 they started seeing these images that there could be lasting 0:04:15.120 --> 0:04:19.000 and devastating effects from the protests on the protesters themselves. 0:04:19.320 --> 0:04:21.960 I talked to Bill Schaffner, who is an infectious disease 0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:25.159 expert at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, and he laid it 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:28.520 out really beautifully. Oh, the moment I saw the demonstrations, 0:04:28.560 --> 0:04:32.560 I was concerned because I thought that the COVID virus 0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:36.440 might have joined the demonstrations. It's a lot of people 0:04:36.560 --> 0:04:40.200 brought together for prolonged periods of time. There's a fair 0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:44.320 amount of chanting and shouting, so they're, you know, inhaling 0:04:44.400 --> 0:04:48.839 and exhaling a lot. And sure, so that's an environment 0:04:49.040 --> 0:04:53.800 where the coronavirus can spread fairly readily from person to person. 0:04:54.160 --> 0:04:57.400 He realized right away that these protesters were putting themselves 0:04:57.400 --> 0:05:02.719 at risk, perhaps knowingly and willingly, but nonetheless there's the 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:07.120 potential harm to themselves personally from being in such crowded conditions. 0:05:08.560 --> 0:05:11.240 And is there a way to know or when will 0:05:11.320 --> 0:05:14.520 we know whether the protests that we've been seeing over 0:05:14.560 --> 0:05:18.560 the past week have caused new outbreaks of the virus. 0:05:20.520 --> 0:05:26.239 The virus itself doesn't immediately cause symptoms or cause any 0:05:26.360 --> 0:05:29.960 outward signs of impact when you first pick it up. 0:05:30.200 --> 0:05:32.800 The way a virus works is you you bring it 0:05:32.839 --> 0:05:37.400 into your system, it lodges itself. It's it has a 0:05:37.480 --> 0:05:41.159 hook that spike protein that it uses to attach to 0:05:41.200 --> 0:05:44.200 a healthy cell. It gets into the healthy cell and 0:05:44.240 --> 0:05:47.520 then starts replicating itself over and over and over again. 0:05:47.839 --> 0:05:50.279 It explodes that cell and goes on to the next one. 0:05:50.800 --> 0:05:53.200 And this takes a few days. In some people, it 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:55.640 can actually take a few weeks, and we don't know 0:05:55.760 --> 0:05:59.440 at what point you start showing the symptoms. So the 0:05:59.560 --> 0:06:02.039 issue when it comes to being at a protest is 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:04.800 that the people who are there who are infected might 0:06:04.880 --> 0:06:07.720 have no idea that they're causing any kind of risk 0:06:07.800 --> 0:06:10.359 or harm to anyone else. And the people who actually 0:06:10.400 --> 0:06:14.120 get infected at any of these kind of events also 0:06:14.200 --> 0:06:17.479 won't know for days or weeks that they are infected. 0:06:17.960 --> 0:06:22.240 So public health officials are telling protesters that in a 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:24.360 week or two, maybe they want to get tested, even 0:06:24.360 --> 0:06:26.839 if they're showing no symptoms, just to make sure that 0:06:26.920 --> 0:06:30.359 they didn't get the virus. They're also asking those people 0:06:30.480 --> 0:06:34.159 to perhaps avoid going home to their families, and it 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:37.280 is a it is a real concern other people say, 0:06:37.360 --> 0:06:40.520 it's too soon to know if you're infected. If you're 0:06:40.560 --> 0:06:42.640 not showing symptoms, you don't need to go out there. 0:06:42.920 --> 0:06:47.919 But they're suggesting that you take different approaches to protesting 0:06:47.960 --> 0:06:51.679 that might lower your risk. So I would advise anyone 0:06:51.720 --> 0:06:54.960 who's going to these demonstrations and people really have it 0:06:55.000 --> 0:06:59.200 in their hearts to participate, then wear a mask by 0:06:59.240 --> 0:07:03.599 all means, try to keep yourself as separate as possible 0:07:03.640 --> 0:07:07.159 from others. And rather than yelling and chanting, how about 0:07:07.160 --> 0:07:12.120 holding up the sign. What are super spreader events and 0:07:12.520 --> 0:07:16.640 is there a risk that some of these protests could 0:07:16.720 --> 0:07:21.160 become these events. We don't really know a lot about 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:24.120 who becomes a super spreader, but we know what a 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:27.400 super spreader is. That's a situation where you just get 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:32.200 one person who has the virus, who's infected. Perhaps there 0:07:32.320 --> 0:07:35.000 they have symptoms, they're coughing, but we're not really even 0:07:35.040 --> 0:07:38.480 sure about that piece. And what happens is that person 0:07:39.120 --> 0:07:43.720 somehow is able to very efficiently spread that virus to 0:07:44.000 --> 0:07:47.960 dozens of other people. So that person might be coughing 0:07:48.120 --> 0:07:50.560 and not have on a mask. That person might be 0:07:50.640 --> 0:07:56.200 eating or chanting, and they are essentially spraying viral particles 0:07:56.520 --> 0:07:58.760 and everyone in their vicinity picks them up at a 0:07:58.840 --> 0:08:01.600 very high rate. And then those people, of course don't 0:08:01.640 --> 0:08:04.560 realize for a few days that they've been sick, and 0:08:04.560 --> 0:08:06.320 then they go out and they bring it back to 0:08:06.360 --> 0:08:09.400 their communities and start spreading it to other people. Most 0:08:09.440 --> 0:08:12.119 of what we know about super spreader events come from 0:08:12.240 --> 0:08:17.480 dramatically smaller gatherings and generally inside. Right, we have the 0:08:17.560 --> 0:08:21.920 case of a choir in Washington State that gathered. There 0:08:22.000 --> 0:08:25.239 was about, you know, sixty five sixty sixty five people 0:08:25.280 --> 0:08:29.360 at that event, and fifty one of them became infected. 0:08:29.600 --> 0:08:31.560 And if you think about what they're doing, it's a choir, 0:08:31.640 --> 0:08:35.720 so they're singing and talking. And certainly we're seeing a 0:08:35.720 --> 0:08:38.200 lot of that in these protests where people are all 0:08:38.280 --> 0:08:41.320 chanting together, and they're singing together, and they're yelling together. 0:08:41.840 --> 0:08:45.400 So you have more than one person who's doing it 0:08:45.440 --> 0:08:49.600 in different areas. But then it's outside, and are there 0:08:49.640 --> 0:08:53.920 other concerns regarding the risks of exposure to coronavirus with 0:08:53.960 --> 0:08:58.640 regard to the protesters the communities involved in these protests. 0:08:58.800 --> 0:09:02.800 Thinking back to how hard black communities and other communities 0:09:02.800 --> 0:09:06.679 of color have been hit by the virus. The challenges 0:09:07.000 --> 0:09:11.040 that minorities and people of color face isn't just limited 0:09:11.080 --> 0:09:15.520 to things like, you know, police brutality or other kinds 0:09:15.520 --> 0:09:20.360 of systemic disadvantages that we are that are being protested. Now. 0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:23.680 We have seen over and over again in healthcare that 0:09:23.760 --> 0:09:27.320 being a minority does put you at increased risk. But 0:09:27.440 --> 0:09:31.960 we have already seen with coronavirus that Black Americans and 0:09:32.040 --> 0:09:37.280 minorities are much more strongly hit, much higher risk of 0:09:37.360 --> 0:09:40.920 developing coronavirus and getting very sick from it. I talked 0:09:40.920 --> 0:09:44.160 to Bill Schaffner from Vanderbilt about that as well. Obviously, 0:09:44.240 --> 0:09:48.360 many of the participants were from communities of color, and 0:09:48.440 --> 0:09:53.839 those communities have already been disproportionately affected by COVID, and 0:09:53.920 --> 0:09:58.079 so I was distressed that perhaps folks might pick up 0:09:58.160 --> 0:10:01.040 the virus at one of these demons rations, take it home, 0:10:01.160 --> 0:10:04.920 spread it to their family and friends and neighbors. Now, 0:10:04.960 --> 0:10:09.680 of course, the protests have occurred roughly at the same 0:10:09.720 --> 0:10:13.920 time as many states are starting to loosen their their 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:17.520 lockdown restrictions, their stay at home orders. Is there any 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:21.400 way to know if we do start to see a 0:10:21.440 --> 0:10:23.959 spike in new cases in a week or so, maybe 0:10:24.000 --> 0:10:28.199 two weeks, whether or not this is an outcome of 0:10:28.240 --> 0:10:32.800 these losening restrictions or from the protests. I think that 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:36.160 we never are going to know. It's very difficult to 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:40.079 be able to tell what is causing the virus to spread. 0:10:40.520 --> 0:10:43.600 As you point out, we are opening up, and not 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:47.000 only that, we've already seen a very steady rate and 0:10:47.040 --> 0:10:50.319 in some cases increases in infection rates in certain areas 0:10:50.600 --> 0:10:54.400 where there has been an opening. Now having other folks 0:10:54.720 --> 0:10:58.920 joined together in these protests, if that's an accelerant, how 0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:02.559 do we know exact a how widespread the virus is 0:11:02.600 --> 0:11:05.559 going to be in the absence of protests. There are 0:11:05.640 --> 0:11:08.920 certain things that epidemiologists will be able to do. Looking backwards, 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:11.559 we'll be able to look at areas where the protests 0:11:11.559 --> 0:11:14.320 were really widely held. We might be able to look, 0:11:14.480 --> 0:11:19.840 to some extent in different groups how widely spreading the viruses, 0:11:19.920 --> 0:11:23.640 perhaps in black and minority communities, although in all honesty, 0:11:23.880 --> 0:11:26.679 there has been a lot of of white people attending 0:11:26.679 --> 0:11:29.040 these protests as well, so they could be bringing the 0:11:29.120 --> 0:11:33.080 virus back to their communities if they're coming from communities 0:11:33.120 --> 0:11:35.600 that aren't as diverse. So it's going to be very 0:11:35.600 --> 0:11:43.120 difficult to tease these things out. That was Michelle Quartets 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:46.760 and that's our show today. For coverage of the outbreak 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:51.360 from one bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com 0:11:51.480 --> 0:11:56.080 slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please leave 0:11:56.120 --> 0:11:58.920 us a review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or 0:11:58.960 --> 0:12:02.839 spotifyl It's the best way to help more listeners find 0:12:02.840 --> 0:12:07.520 our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily Edition is produced by 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:13.520 Topher foreheads Jordan Gaspore, Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. 0:12:14.400 --> 0:12:19.200 Today's main story was reported by Michele Portez. Original music 0:12:19.320 --> 0:12:24.120 by Leo Sidrin. Our editors Our Francesca Levie and Rick Shine. 0:12:24.920 --> 0:12:29.960 Francesca Levie is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.