1 00:00:03,800 --> 00:00:08,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day eighty five 2 00:00:09,160 --> 00:00:13,960 Speaker 1: since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Our main story. 3 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:18,560 Speaker 1: Public health officials have been working hard to reopen the US, 4 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:21,880 Speaker 1: and social distancing has been the guiding principle and how 5 00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:25,159 Speaker 1: to get there. But no one could have foreseen the 6 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 1: densely packed protests after George Floyd's death in police custody. 7 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:33,839 Speaker 1: The tragedy has plunged the country into a painful re 8 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:39,280 Speaker 1: examination of racism and police brutality, and it has brought 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 1: tens of thousands of people into close contact on the streets, 10 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:46,879 Speaker 1: all in the wake of months of mounting evidence that 11 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 1: the pandemic has taken a disproportionate toll on minorities and 12 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:56,320 Speaker 1: people of color. Could the protests now set off a 13 00:00:56,520 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 1: new wave of infections? Michelle Cortes spoke to scientists about 14 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 1: just that, But first, here's what happened today. The fight 15 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:17,120 Speaker 1: terrain in the pandemic continues. The US now says it 16 00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:20,560 Speaker 1: is developing a test that can simultaneously check for seasonal 17 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 1: influenza and COVID nineteen that could help health authorities determine 18 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:28,759 Speaker 1: whether there may be a second wave of the coronavirus 19 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 1: later this year, and in the latest sign that many 20 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 1: people are trying to get back to normal life, American 21 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 1: Airlines said it would boost July flights sev as US 22 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 1: travelers freed from shelter and place orders begin to return 23 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 1: to the skies. July's planned four thousand daily flights would 24 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 1: nearly double this month's take off and landings. Still, that 25 00:01:55,760 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 1: would amount to only about of the traffic flowing July. 26 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 1: Even his, conditions in the pandemics epicenter New York City 27 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:10,360 Speaker 1: continue to improve, and the city makes plans to gradually reopen. 28 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:13,840 Speaker 1: Elsewhere around the globe, the news is not so good. 29 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 1: Iran reported its highest number of daily cases yet, and 30 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 1: Mexico and Brazil each had a record increase in deaths. 31 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 1: And now our main story mass protests and the coronavirus. 32 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 1: Though it will take weeks for any impact of the 33 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 1: protests to show up in the data, US health officials 34 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:46,919 Speaker 1: are concerned chanting, singing, and prolonged exposure impact conditions may 35 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:51,520 Speaker 1: be a recipe for spreading the virus, especially when some 36 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 1: protesters aren't wearing masks. I spoke to Michelle Cortez about 37 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 1: this latest worry. Over the last few weeks, the US 38 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 1: has not only continued to be in the grip of 39 00:03:07,040 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 1: the coronavirus pandemic, but also has seen dozens of protests 40 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 1: in cities throughout the country. Just to start off very broadly, 41 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:20,240 Speaker 1: how is one affecting the other? So we had gotten 42 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 1: to the point with the coronavirus outbreak that things were 43 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 1: starting to warm up, people were getting outside more. We 44 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:31,959 Speaker 1: flattened the curve by following social distancing guidelines, and public 45 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: health officials thought we could do this in a very 46 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: controlled and careful way, that we could test people now 47 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: that we have tests, track their contacts, and make sure 48 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 1: that the virus doesn't get out of control again. The 49 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 1: problem is is that with these protests and these masses 50 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 1: of people coming together, any sense of control is just 51 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 1: out the window. And so as health officials are watching 52 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 1: these protests happen from a health perspective and in the 53 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 1: context of the coronavirus, what has been their response to 54 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 1: the protests. Public health officials were immediately concerned about the 55 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 1: coronavirus outbreak some people because of what they do with 56 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 1: their day to day jobs. They realized as soon as 57 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 1: they started seeing these images that there could be lasting 58 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 1: and devastating effects from the protests on the protesters themselves. 59 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 1: I talked to Bill Schaffner, who is an infectious disease 60 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:25,159 Speaker 1: expert at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, and he laid it 61 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 1: out really beautifully. Oh, the moment I saw the demonstrations, 62 00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 1: I was concerned because I thought that the COVID virus 63 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 1: might have joined the demonstrations. It's a lot of people 64 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 1: brought together for prolonged periods of time. There's a fair 65 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 1: amount of chanting and shouting, so they're, you know, inhaling 66 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:48,839 Speaker 1: and exhaling a lot. And sure, so that's an environment 67 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 1: where the coronavirus can spread fairly readily from person to person. 68 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 1: He realized right away that these protesters were putting themselves 69 00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:02,719 Speaker 1: at risk, perhaps knowingly and willingly, but nonetheless there's the 70 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 1: potential harm to themselves personally from being in such crowded conditions. 71 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 1: And is there a way to know or when will 72 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 1: we know whether the protests that we've been seeing over 73 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 1: the past week have caused new outbreaks of the virus. 74 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:26,239 Speaker 1: The virus itself doesn't immediately cause symptoms or cause any 75 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 1: outward signs of impact when you first pick it up. 76 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 1: The way a virus works is you you bring it 77 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 1: into your system, it lodges itself. It's it has a 78 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:41,159 Speaker 1: hook that spike protein that it uses to attach to 79 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 1: a healthy cell. It gets into the healthy cell and 80 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: then starts replicating itself over and over and over again. 81 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:50,279 Speaker 1: It explodes that cell and goes on to the next one. 82 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 1: And this takes a few days. In some people, it 83 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 1: can actually take a few weeks, and we don't know 84 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 1: at what point you start showing the symptoms. So the 85 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:02,039 Speaker 1: issue when it comes to being at a protest is 86 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,800 Speaker 1: that the people who are there who are infected might 87 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:07,720 Speaker 1: have no idea that they're causing any kind of risk 88 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:10,359 Speaker 1: or harm to anyone else. And the people who actually 89 00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 1: get infected at any of these kind of events also 90 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:17,479 Speaker 1: won't know for days or weeks that they are infected. 91 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: So public health officials are telling protesters that in a 92 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:24,360 Speaker 1: week or two, maybe they want to get tested, even 93 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:26,839 Speaker 1: if they're showing no symptoms, just to make sure that 94 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:30,359 Speaker 1: they didn't get the virus. They're also asking those people 95 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:34,159 Speaker 1: to perhaps avoid going home to their families, and it 96 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:37,280 Speaker 1: is a it is a real concern other people say, 97 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 1: it's too soon to know if you're infected. If you're 98 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 1: not showing symptoms, you don't need to go out there. 99 00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:47,919 Speaker 1: But they're suggesting that you take different approaches to protesting 100 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:51,679 Speaker 1: that might lower your risk. So I would advise anyone 101 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:54,960 Speaker 1: who's going to these demonstrations and people really have it 102 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 1: in their hearts to participate, then wear a mask by 103 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:03,599 Speaker 1: all means, try to keep yourself as separate as possible 104 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:07,159 Speaker 1: from others. And rather than yelling and chanting, how about 105 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:12,120 Speaker 1: holding up the sign. What are super spreader events and 106 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 1: is there a risk that some of these protests could 107 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 1: become these events. We don't really know a lot about 108 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 1: who becomes a super spreader, but we know what a 109 00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 1: super spreader is. That's a situation where you just get 110 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:32,200 Speaker 1: one person who has the virus, who's infected. Perhaps there 111 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:35,000 Speaker 1: they have symptoms, they're coughing, but we're not really even 112 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 1: sure about that piece. And what happens is that person 113 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 1: somehow is able to very efficiently spread that virus to 114 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:47,960 Speaker 1: dozens of other people. So that person might be coughing 115 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 1: and not have on a mask. That person might be 116 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:56,200 Speaker 1: eating or chanting, and they are essentially spraying viral particles 117 00:07:56,520 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 1: and everyone in their vicinity picks them up at a 118 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 1: very high rate. And then those people, of course don't 119 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 1: realize for a few days that they've been sick, and 120 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 1: then they go out and they bring it back to 121 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 1: their communities and start spreading it to other people. Most 122 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:12,119 Speaker 1: of what we know about super spreader events come from 123 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 1: dramatically smaller gatherings and generally inside. Right, we have the 124 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:21,920 Speaker 1: case of a choir in Washington State that gathered. There 125 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:25,239 Speaker 1: was about, you know, sixty five sixty sixty five people 126 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 1: at that event, and fifty one of them became infected. 127 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 1: And if you think about what they're doing, it's a choir, 128 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:35,720 Speaker 1: so they're singing and talking. And certainly we're seeing a 129 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 1: lot of that in these protests where people are all 130 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 1: chanting together, and they're singing together, and they're yelling together. 131 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 1: So you have more than one person who's doing it 132 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:49,600 Speaker 1: in different areas. But then it's outside, and are there 133 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:53,920 Speaker 1: other concerns regarding the risks of exposure to coronavirus with 134 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 1: regard to the protesters the communities involved in these protests. 135 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 1: Thinking back to how hard black communities and other communities 136 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:06,679 Speaker 1: of color have been hit by the virus. The challenges 137 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 1: that minorities and people of color face isn't just limited 138 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 1: to things like, you know, police brutality or other kinds 139 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:20,360 Speaker 1: of systemic disadvantages that we are that are being protested. Now. 140 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:23,680 Speaker 1: We have seen over and over again in healthcare that 141 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 1: being a minority does put you at increased risk. But 142 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 1: we have already seen with coronavirus that Black Americans and 143 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 1: minorities are much more strongly hit, much higher risk of 144 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:40,920 Speaker 1: developing coronavirus and getting very sick from it. I talked 145 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 1: to Bill Schaffner from Vanderbilt about that as well. Obviously, 146 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 1: many of the participants were from communities of color, and 147 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:53,839 Speaker 1: those communities have already been disproportionately affected by COVID, and 148 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:58,079 Speaker 1: so I was distressed that perhaps folks might pick up 149 00:09:58,160 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 1: the virus at one of these demons rations, take it home, 150 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 1: spread it to their family and friends and neighbors. Now, 151 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:09,680 Speaker 1: of course, the protests have occurred roughly at the same 152 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 1: time as many states are starting to loosen their their 153 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 1: lockdown restrictions, their stay at home orders. Is there any 154 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 1: way to know if we do start to see a 155 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:23,959 Speaker 1: spike in new cases in a week or so, maybe 156 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:28,199 Speaker 1: two weeks, whether or not this is an outcome of 157 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 1: these losening restrictions or from the protests. I think that 158 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 1: we never are going to know. It's very difficult to 159 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:40,079 Speaker 1: be able to tell what is causing the virus to spread. 160 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 1: As you point out, we are opening up, and not 161 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 1: only that, we've already seen a very steady rate and 162 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:50,319 Speaker 1: in some cases increases in infection rates in certain areas 163 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 1: where there has been an opening. Now having other folks 164 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:58,920 Speaker 1: joined together in these protests, if that's an accelerant, how 165 00:10:58,920 --> 00:11:02,559 Speaker 1: do we know exact a how widespread the virus is 166 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:05,559 Speaker 1: going to be in the absence of protests. There are 167 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 1: certain things that epidemiologists will be able to do. Looking backwards, 168 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:11,559 Speaker 1: we'll be able to look at areas where the protests 169 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:14,320 Speaker 1: were really widely held. We might be able to look, 170 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:19,840 Speaker 1: to some extent in different groups how widely spreading the viruses, 171 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 1: perhaps in black and minority communities, although in all honesty, 172 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:26,679 Speaker 1: there has been a lot of of white people attending 173 00:11:26,679 --> 00:11:29,040 Speaker 1: these protests as well, so they could be bringing the 174 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:33,080 Speaker 1: virus back to their communities if they're coming from communities 175 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 1: that aren't as diverse. So it's going to be very 176 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 1: difficult to tease these things out. That was Michelle Quartets 177 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 1: and that's our show today. For coverage of the outbreak 178 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 1: from one bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com 179 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:56,080 Speaker 1: slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please leave 180 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 1: us a review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or 181 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:02,839 Speaker 1: spotifyl It's the best way to help more listeners find 182 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 1: our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily Edition is produced by 183 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:13,520 Speaker 1: Topher foreheads Jordan Gaspore, Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. 184 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:19,200 Speaker 1: Today's main story was reported by Michele Portez. Original music 185 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 1: by Leo Sidrin. Our editors Our Francesca Levie and Rick Shine. 186 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:29,960 Speaker 1: Francesca Levie is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.