WEBVTT - Greg Davis on Vanguard Portfolio Management

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<v Speaker 1>This is Master's in Business with Barry rid Holds on

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>This week on the podcast, I have an extra special guest,

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<v Speaker 2>Greg Davis, chief investment officer at a little shop called

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<v Speaker 2>the Vanguard Group, which manages eight trillion dollars. He's only

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<v Speaker 2>responsible for seven point three trillion of it, so kind

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<v Speaker 2>of a slacker. I found this conversation to be absolutely

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<v Speaker 2>a masterclass in how to think about investing risk, how

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<v Speaker 2>to think about where your returns come from, what sort

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<v Speaker 2>of behavioral problems lead to bad outcomes, and all of

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<v Speaker 2>the usual things that we've learned over the years from

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<v Speaker 2>the success of Vanguard. Few people are in a position

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<v Speaker 2>to see what's going on in the world of investing,

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<v Speaker 2>whether it's institutional or retail, better than Vanguard's CIO, and

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<v Speaker 2>Greg Day just does an amazing job. I thought this

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<v Speaker 2>was a really fascinating conversation. I think you will also

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<v Speaker 2>with no further ado, my interview with Vanguard CIO Greg Davis.

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<v Speaker 2>Greg Davis, Welcome to Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks very great to be here with you.

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<v Speaker 2>Great to have you. So let's talk a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>about your background, which is kind of interesting. Undergraduate you

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<v Speaker 2>get a BSN insurance from Penn State. What led to

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<v Speaker 2>an interest in insurance.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a long story, but originally I went to school

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<v Speaker 3>for engineering. Got to school, realized that I wasn't very

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<v Speaker 3>good at mechanical drawing, which is a big part of

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<v Speaker 3>aerospace engineering curriculum. So I started to look at other

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<v Speaker 3>opportunities and primarily in a business space, so start examining

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<v Speaker 3>opportunities in finance, real estate, and insurance. Penn State was

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<v Speaker 3>one of the few schools that actually had an insurance major,

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<v Speaker 3>and you know, with the goal of actually getting becoming

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<v Speaker 3>gainfully employed. When I graduated college, I thought, hey, having

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<v Speaker 3>a a somewhat unique background would be helpful and it

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<v Speaker 3>worked out. And had multiple job offers coming out of

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<v Speaker 3>school from a number of different insurance companies and had

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<v Speaker 3>an opportunity to be an underwriter for a few years

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<v Speaker 3>before I decided to go back to school to get

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<v Speaker 3>the NBA.

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<v Speaker 2>How'd you end up at Merrill Lynch in the nineteen nineties,

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<v Speaker 2>So I ended up going through the Wharton program.

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<v Speaker 3>I did an internship in the summer at City Bank

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<v Speaker 3>Securities and fixing come sales and trading, got a couple

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<v Speaker 3>different job offers across the Street. But the reason I

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<v Speaker 3>went to Meryl was because they had this unique global

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<v Speaker 3>debt rotation program that allowed you to rotate through a

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<v Speaker 3>couple of different business units in fixingcome sales, and trading,

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<v Speaker 3>and I knew I wanted to do trading.

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<v Speaker 2>Were you at the Downtown the World Final Financial by

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<v Speaker 2>the way, that could be the most amazing trading desk.

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<v Speaker 2>I've been there a couple of times, and in the

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<v Speaker 2>nineteen nineties, when you walked onto the equity floor, you

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<v Speaker 2>were just hit with a wall of sound and energy.

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<v Speaker 2>I've never seen or experienced anything like that anywhere else.

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<v Speaker 3>And the fixed income floor was equally sized, just on

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<v Speaker 3>a different floor, but also a similar type environment. But

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<v Speaker 3>it was a very interesting place to start a career

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<v Speaker 3>after grad school. But that experience got cut short because

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<v Speaker 3>right around that time when my class started, it was

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<v Speaker 3>the tail end of the Asian financial crisis, the.

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<v Speaker 2>Russian roue seven or ninety eight.

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<v Speaker 3>I started in the beginning of I started in September

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<v Speaker 3>of ninety eight, and that happened in ninety seven, but

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<v Speaker 3>you had the Asian financial crisis, the Russian ruble devaluation,

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<v Speaker 3>and then you had long term capital management blowing up.

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<v Speaker 3>So there was a lot of changes that was happening

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<v Speaker 3>across the street in terms of you know, layoffs happening,

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<v Speaker 3>and our program got cut short, ended up getting placed

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<v Speaker 3>in a non trading role, and you know, decided to

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<v Speaker 3>look at other opportunities outside and came across this great

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<v Speaker 3>opportunity to pursue trading at Vanguard, you know, twenty four

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<v Speaker 3>years ago.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's talk about that, and your bio explains how

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<v Speaker 2>you were recruited to Van Guard. I thought that was

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<v Speaker 2>a really interesting story. Tell us a little bit about

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<v Speaker 2>what brought you to Vanguard.

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<v Speaker 3>So it was interesting because I was pretty pretty keen

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<v Speaker 3>on staying in New York. I had a number of

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<v Speaker 3>relationships that I built up and had another job lined

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<v Speaker 3>up in New York City. But one of my best

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<v Speaker 3>friends that I grew up with actually worked in the

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<v Speaker 3>HR department at Vanguard, and she was like, you should

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<v Speaker 3>come down and talk to some people at Vanguard, And

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<v Speaker 3>at first I kind of blew it off, but she

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<v Speaker 3>was pretty persistent. So I came down, met with our

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<v Speaker 3>head of the portfolio review department, which oversees our external managers,

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<v Speaker 3>met with our head of brokerage, and then met with

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<v Speaker 3>the head of Bond Indexing, who was Ken Volpert at

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<v Speaker 3>the time, and me and him had an instant connection,

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<v Speaker 3>and so Ken was the main reason I came to Vanguard.

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<v Speaker 3>Vanguard had a great reputation already we were much smaller

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<v Speaker 3>at the time, but Ken had a track record of

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<v Speaker 3>bringing new people onto his team, developing them and seeing

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<v Speaker 3>them move into bigger jobs over time. And as somebody

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<v Speaker 3>who was relatively new to the industry, that's the kind

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<v Speaker 3>of mentor and boss I was looking for. So, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>Ken ended up being, you know, one of the best

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<v Speaker 3>bosses I've ever had in my career.

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<v Speaker 2>We'll talk a little bit about leadership and crew development

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<v Speaker 2>a little later. It's really a fascinating subject. But you

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<v Speaker 2>eventually serve as director of Vanguard Australia and Asia Pacific

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<v Speaker 2>and CIO of the region. Tell us a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>about that experience in the two thousands, I mean, the

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<v Speaker 2>nineties was its own unique animal, but the two thousands

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<v Speaker 2>certainly weren't boring.

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<v Speaker 3>Now, So my family and I we moved to Melbourne,

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<v Speaker 3>Australia where offices. It was a just a fabulous experience,

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<v Speaker 3>both professionally and personally. Just having an opportunity to work,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, in a different country, embracing the Australian culture,

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<v Speaker 3>but being part of the Asia pac region because at

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<v Speaker 3>the time we had an office in Hong Kong as well,

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<v Speaker 3>where we were starting up our ETF business. But it

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<v Speaker 3>was a tremendous experience because I had started off in

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<v Speaker 3>bond trading, worked my way into portfolio management and running

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<v Speaker 3>the bond the nexting team for a number of years,

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<v Speaker 3>and then it got asked to take this responsibility which

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<v Speaker 3>was much broader. So I was a mile deep on

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<v Speaker 3>a subject matter of bond indexing, but now I had

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<v Speaker 3>the opportunity to lead an equity indexing group, the entire

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<v Speaker 3>fixed income team, our investment strategy team that does research

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<v Speaker 3>for our clients around portfolio construction, those types of things.

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<v Speaker 3>But the other big part of it was having an

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<v Speaker 3>opportunity to be on the Australian executive team that actually

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<v Speaker 3>ran the business. So from a broadening standpoint, I'm an

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<v Speaker 3>investment guy, but that was an opportunity to actually learn

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<v Speaker 3>about the business, how Vanguard Australia operates in the ecosystem,

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<v Speaker 3>how we're trying to market our products and services, how

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<v Speaker 3>we're engaging with regulators, the media, the whole nine yards,

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<v Speaker 3>and then also being part of the board of directors

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<v Speaker 3>down there. So from a broadening standpoint, that experience was unbelievable,

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<v Speaker 3>so valued every minute that I was down there. And

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<v Speaker 3>unfortunately or fortunately depending on how you look at it,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, the three to four year assignment ended up

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<v Speaker 3>being thirteen months, but I got a great opportunity to

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<v Speaker 3>come back to run the fixed income group as you

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<v Speaker 3>had As you had mentioned, but the time in Australia

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<v Speaker 3>was fabulous for both myself, my wife and the kids.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. You know, what's really interesting is everybody tends to

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<v Speaker 2>think of Wall Street and investing in finance in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of the investing side, but the business side is really intriguing.

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<v Speaker 2>There are a lot endless variety of business models and

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<v Speaker 2>seeing how people operate that it's really an education one

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<v Speaker 2>that I think a lot of people coming out of

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<v Speaker 2>school don't think about goes. You think about the sexy things. Hey,

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<v Speaker 2>I want to do venture capital, I want to do this,

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<v Speaker 2>I want to do that. The business side is really

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<v Speaker 2>quite fascinating and somewhat overlooked.

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<v Speaker 3>That's very, very true, but it's also one of those

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<v Speaker 3>things that you don't necessarily appreciate it until you've been

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<v Speaker 3>doing a certain job for a while. So if you

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<v Speaker 3>would have said to me, you know, when I first

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<v Speaker 3>came out of grad school and you said to me, hey,

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<v Speaker 3>I want you to go to the business side, you

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<v Speaker 3>know I would have said, no, thank you, I really

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<v Speaker 3>want to do trading and portfolio management. But you get

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<v Speaker 3>to a point in your career where you feel like, hey,

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<v Speaker 3>you've you've learned a lot, You've developed a team, and

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<v Speaker 3>you're looking for new challenges and a chance to stretch

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<v Speaker 3>yourself and grow and learn.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's exactly what that opportunity provided.

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<v Speaker 2>So now you eventually get you go to fixed in

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<v Speaker 2>and then you're elevated to chief investment officer of all

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<v Speaker 2>a vangroup. Take us through a day in the life

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<v Speaker 2>or or a week in the life of Vanguard CIO.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, it's a lot.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, there's a there's a tremendous amount of meetings

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<v Speaker 3>and the way I would the way I would describe it, Barry,

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<v Speaker 3>it's a mix. It's you know, client related, it's media

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<v Speaker 3>like we're doing today. It's also being part of the

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<v Speaker 3>senior team that runs Vanguard, the business of Vanguard right

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<v Speaker 3>from a client strategy marketing standpoint, and then you know, overseeing,

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<v Speaker 3>overseeing the the the investment team, So a variety of

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<v Speaker 3>risk meetings, a variety of economic meetings. So it's a

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<v Speaker 3>any given day could be slightly different, but it typically

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<v Speaker 3>will capture those categories over time. And so you know,

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<v Speaker 3>it's uh, there's there's always plenty of stuff going on

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<v Speaker 3>in the marketplace and then the business that that that

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<v Speaker 3>keeps us very busy.

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<v Speaker 2>And you've now been with Vanguard for almost twenty five years.

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<v Speaker 1>You have to be twenty four in November.

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<v Speaker 2>So you're you're year away from a big milestone. That

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<v Speaker 2>period very much encompasses Vanguard going from and admittedly successful

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<v Speaker 2>but not enormous entity till you know, I think the

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<v Speaker 2>two thousands, especially the financial crisis, changed how people thought

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<v Speaker 2>about managed assets, indexing advisory versus transactional and Vanguard along

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<v Speaker 2>with black Rock, have been two of the biggest beneficiaries

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<v Speaker 2>of this. Tell us a little bit about what you've

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<v Speaker 2>experienced over the arc of those twenty four years that

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<v Speaker 2>you were really there as the company ramped up and

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<v Speaker 2>then went they found a whole other gear and just exploded.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's absolutely right, Barry I mean, it's been a

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<v Speaker 3>lot in terms of, you know, just the changing perception

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<v Speaker 3>in the marketplace of how investors invest right. And you're right,

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<v Speaker 3>So you think back thirty years, you know, there are

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<v Speaker 3>so many people who are focused on individual security selection,

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<v Speaker 3>picking individual stocks and the reality is that you know,

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<v Speaker 3>we know that's very difficult to do and outperforming a

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<v Speaker 3>broader market. So does a big push for folks to

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<v Speaker 3>get the appropriate level of asset allocation in a highly diversified,

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<v Speaker 3>low cost way. And you know, the ETF the ETF rapper,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, allowed people to get that exposure inexpensively holding

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<v Speaker 3>it in a brokerage account. So it really provided a

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<v Speaker 3>nice tailwind to folks in the indexing space who provided

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<v Speaker 3>those products. In Vanguard, is you know, one of the

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<v Speaker 3>big beneficiaries of that that migration away from individual stock

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<v Speaker 3>selection to to broad based index exposure to.

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<v Speaker 2>Say the very least. So let's discuss leadership and what

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<v Speaker 2>you do to develop crew members and to identify and

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<v Speaker 2>foster other people's leadership skills.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so it's a great question.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, one of the things that we try to

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<v Speaker 3>focus on is you know, as part of our interview process,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, always trying to assess and gauge the the

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<v Speaker 3>willingness and the interest for folks to develop the leadership

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<v Speaker 3>competencies in addition to the technical competencies. So you know,

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<v Speaker 3>when we think about our investment professionals, clearly they have

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<v Speaker 3>to be technically sharp, they have to learn those skills

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<v Speaker 3>to do their jobs day to day. But if they

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<v Speaker 3>also want to be the head of a trading desk

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<v Speaker 3>and lead a major function within our group or within

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<v Speaker 3>broader vanguard, they also have to be really good at

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<v Speaker 3>identifying talent, developing talent, maintaining really strong relationships, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>being strategic thinkers and things of that nature. And so,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, these are the types of things that we

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<v Speaker 3>have a number of programs that we run to help

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<v Speaker 3>us assess how people are progressing through that leadership journey.

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<v Speaker 1>We help develop people on that leadership journey along the way.

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<v Speaker 3>But the assessment process also allows us to figure out,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, where people might have gaps and need an

0:11:35.400 --> 0:11:38.600
<v Speaker 3>opportunity to go back and do a bit of a refresher.

0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:41.360
<v Speaker 3>So you know, we've been very actively involved in that

0:11:41.400 --> 0:11:44.240
<v Speaker 3>whole process for our investment professionals, and you know, it's

0:11:44.240 --> 0:11:47.080
<v Speaker 3>paid off. It's paid spades in terms of you know,

0:11:47.280 --> 0:11:49.240
<v Speaker 3>it helps us make sure that we're recruiting the right people.

0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:52.000
<v Speaker 3>It helps us in terms of retaining folks because when

0:11:52.000 --> 0:11:54.680
<v Speaker 3>you work for a great boss, you're motivated to stay

0:11:54.679 --> 0:11:57.280
<v Speaker 3>at that firm because we know, you know, it's difficult

0:11:57.320 --> 0:11:59.959
<v Speaker 3>to make a strong connection with the boss at times.

0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:02.440
<v Speaker 3>And to the extent that Vanguard has great leaders in

0:12:02.480 --> 0:12:04.400
<v Speaker 3>the seats and we feel like, hey, we have some

0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:06.880
<v Speaker 3>of the coolest jobs that are available to people. You

0:12:07.040 --> 0:12:09.000
<v Speaker 3>couple that with great leadership. I mean, it's a win

0:12:09.080 --> 0:12:11.640
<v Speaker 3>win formula for long term success for our organization.

0:12:12.240 --> 0:12:15.680
<v Speaker 2>That's really interesting. A lot of people in finance have

0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:19.800
<v Speaker 2>been saying it's difficult to find people in this environment.

0:12:20.440 --> 0:12:24.360
<v Speaker 2>What is Vanguard doing to keep the seats filled and

0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:27.920
<v Speaker 2>make sure you have an ongoing source of talent coming

0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:29.040
<v Speaker 2>to Pennsylvania.

0:12:29.120 --> 0:12:32.079
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so we are very heavily involved. We have you

0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:32.760
<v Speaker 1>in our group.

0:12:32.800 --> 0:12:35.920
<v Speaker 3>Specifically, we have the Investment Management Development Program where every

0:12:36.000 --> 0:12:38.199
<v Speaker 3>year we have a cadre of summer interns as well

0:12:38.240 --> 0:12:41.280
<v Speaker 3>as full time folks who just finished their undergraduate studies

0:12:41.320 --> 0:12:43.760
<v Speaker 3>who come to us in a rotational program that gives

0:12:43.800 --> 0:12:46.920
<v Speaker 3>them exposure to equities various points in fixed income and

0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:50.800
<v Speaker 3>risk and our portfolio reviewed department as a nice entry

0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:52.800
<v Speaker 3>point for people to explore and see what they really

0:12:52.840 --> 0:12:55.040
<v Speaker 3>want to do. And so we just had a cadre

0:12:55.120 --> 0:12:57.880
<v Speaker 3>that launched to their final placement earlier this week, and

0:12:57.920 --> 0:13:01.280
<v Speaker 3>so there were seven individuals that span the range from

0:13:01.400 --> 0:13:05.120
<v Speaker 3>risk to high yield trading to investment grade research. And

0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:08.080
<v Speaker 3>you know, it's a nice talent pipeline. And the great

0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:10.640
<v Speaker 3>thing is the talent that we're seeing today is so

0:13:10.760 --> 0:13:12.559
<v Speaker 3>much greater than the talent that we were able to

0:13:12.640 --> 0:13:15.400
<v Speaker 3>attract twenty years ago. And so, you know, just the

0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:19.679
<v Speaker 3>level of awareness, understanding of markets, the technical skills from

0:13:19.720 --> 0:13:22.360
<v Speaker 3>an IT and data science standpoint that these folks are

0:13:22.360 --> 0:13:25.280
<v Speaker 3>bringing to the table today is pretty amazing. And so

0:13:25.440 --> 0:13:27.800
<v Speaker 3>that's really the pipeline for us. And then you know,

0:13:27.840 --> 0:13:30.800
<v Speaker 3>we will supplement that with experienced senior hires, you know,

0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:33.160
<v Speaker 3>as we you know, if there's turnover and we don't

0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:34.880
<v Speaker 3>have somebody on a bench ready to go to move

0:13:34.920 --> 0:13:36.480
<v Speaker 3>into a bigger seat as well, or if we're trying

0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:38.400
<v Speaker 3>to build that new capabilities like we've done in the.

0:13:38.360 --> 0:13:42.200
<v Speaker 2>Past, huh, really impressive. Let's talk a little bit about

0:13:42.559 --> 0:13:47.679
<v Speaker 2>the Vanguard total market index that's become the largest fund

0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:52.600
<v Speaker 2>in the world. What goes into managing a fund of

0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:55.760
<v Speaker 2>that size and that importance to Vanguard.

0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:57.640
<v Speaker 3>I mean, it really starts, It really starts with the people,

0:13:58.240 --> 0:14:00.240
<v Speaker 3>you know, just making sure that we have humble, really

0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:03.720
<v Speaker 3>talented professionals who you know are truly dedicated to managing

0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:06.760
<v Speaker 3>these uh these index funds on a day to day basis.

0:14:06.800 --> 0:14:08.680
<v Speaker 3>And you know, the way the way we think about

0:14:08.720 --> 0:14:11.360
<v Speaker 3>it are our pms also service traders, and so they're

0:14:11.400 --> 0:14:15.800
<v Speaker 3>working very closely day by day making sure that Total

0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:18.320
<v Speaker 3>Stock Market Index fund and all of our other equity

0:14:18.320 --> 0:14:21.760
<v Speaker 3>index funds are you know, minimizing the tracking here, also

0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:24.200
<v Speaker 3>trying to make sure that we're minimizing transaction costs as

0:14:24.240 --> 0:14:27.280
<v Speaker 3>we're transacting in the marketplace, also being cognizant of the

0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:31.280
<v Speaker 3>tax implications of trading activity, and then also looking to

0:14:31.320 --> 0:14:34.640
<v Speaker 3>add value at the margin through opportunistic ideas and you know,

0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:37.680
<v Speaker 3>through rebalancing corporate actions, new issues and things that nature

0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:41.080
<v Speaker 3>to try to eat into the expense ratio at the margin,

0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:44.240
<v Speaker 3>but again in a highly highly riskcontrolled way. And the

0:14:44.280 --> 0:14:46.360
<v Speaker 3>great thing is we have, you know a team of

0:14:46.360 --> 0:14:49.040
<v Speaker 3>folks who have been doing this for decades, and you know,

0:14:49.080 --> 0:14:52.119
<v Speaker 3>they're unmatched in the industry because they're dedicated to doing indexing.

0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:54.160
<v Speaker 3>A lot of firms you find folks who start with

0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:56.920
<v Speaker 3>indexing and move on to something else. At Vanguard, this

0:14:56.960 --> 0:14:58.720
<v Speaker 3>is a career destination for a lot of these folks

0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:00.200
<v Speaker 3>and they love every minute of what they do.

0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:05.280
<v Speaker 2>So a lot of indexers will track somebody else's index.

0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:09.920
<v Speaker 2>The Vanguard Total Market Index is something that Vanguard itself creates.

0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:13.040
<v Speaker 2>There's a separate index group and there's a whole bunch

0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:19.320
<v Speaker 2>of technical ways that's set up. What goes into making

0:15:19.440 --> 0:15:22.640
<v Speaker 2>changes in stock memberships tell us a little bit about

0:15:22.880 --> 0:15:24.120
<v Speaker 2>what that process is like.

0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:27.640
<v Speaker 3>So so for total stock market, the Total Stock Market

0:15:28.160 --> 0:15:31.160
<v Speaker 3>Index fund that is a CRIPS fund that is you know,

0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:34.560
<v Speaker 3>run by the University Chicago. They create the benchmark. We

0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:37.720
<v Speaker 3>help them in terms of identifying and creating the parameters

0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:38.400
<v Speaker 3>around how.

0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:40.280
<v Speaker 1>That that that index should be constructed.

0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:44.280
<v Speaker 3>The biggest things are you know, primarily when there's corporate actions,

0:15:44.280 --> 0:15:47.120
<v Speaker 3>there's there's I pos. Those are the things that typically

0:15:47.200 --> 0:15:50.000
<v Speaker 3>drive changes because again this represents the total market. So

0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:53.120
<v Speaker 3>you have small cap, small cap, MidCap, large cap, you

0:15:53.240 --> 0:15:56.480
<v Speaker 3>have growth value and blend in there. So the turnover

0:15:56.560 --> 0:15:59.720
<v Speaker 3>is primarily driven by corporate actions and I pos and

0:15:59.760 --> 0:16:01.280
<v Speaker 3>then you know, the team spends a lot of time

0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:03.680
<v Speaker 3>just making sure they handle those you know, really really

0:16:03.720 --> 0:16:07.400
<v Speaker 3>well to minimize costs, make sure that tracking are remains

0:16:07.440 --> 0:16:10.240
<v Speaker 3>relatively tight, and the other thing the team does. And

0:16:10.280 --> 0:16:13.200
<v Speaker 3>we have a securities lending team that that also spends

0:16:13.200 --> 0:16:15.200
<v Speaker 3>a lot of time making sure that we're getting value

0:16:15.240 --> 0:16:17.400
<v Speaker 3>for the securities that are in demand, and that that

0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:20.560
<v Speaker 3>those earnings from the securities lending revenue, net of the

0:16:20.600 --> 0:16:22.480
<v Speaker 3>cost to run that group, goes right back to the fund.

0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:25.160
<v Speaker 3>So our shareholders benefit whenever there's a lot of demand

0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:28.080
<v Speaker 3>for certain securities that we own. So that's a that's

0:16:28.120 --> 0:16:30.840
<v Speaker 3>another contributing factor to performance in those funds as well.

0:16:30.920 --> 0:16:34.720
<v Speaker 2>That's a performance enhancer that ultimately leads to the ability

0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:37.120
<v Speaker 2>to lower costs to that fund.

0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:39.480
<v Speaker 3>Well, it lowers the ultimate drag that you would have

0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:40.840
<v Speaker 3>from transaction costs exactly.

0:16:41.080 --> 0:16:41.280
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:16:41.360 --> 0:16:44.840
<v Speaker 2>So so how often does Vanguard create a new index?

0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:46.040
<v Speaker 2>So what's that process?

0:16:46.120 --> 0:16:47.840
<v Speaker 1>Like, we tend not to create the index. You know,

0:16:47.880 --> 0:16:49.120
<v Speaker 1>that's an outsourced process.

0:16:49.240 --> 0:16:51.280
<v Speaker 3>So you know it's really function of you know, do

0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:53.840
<v Speaker 3>we have gaps in our lineup, and so you know,

0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:56.200
<v Speaker 3>we get we get input from, you know, the various

0:16:56.200 --> 0:16:58.560
<v Speaker 3>business divisions, whether or not it's our retail group or

0:16:58.600 --> 0:17:01.920
<v Speaker 3>institutional group, our financial advisor services group. You know, are

0:17:01.960 --> 0:17:04.120
<v Speaker 3>there gaps where we feel like, hey, we don't have

0:17:04.600 --> 0:17:07.600
<v Speaker 3>a relevant offering that's that's needed by our clients. And

0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:10.160
<v Speaker 3>then we find out we do research. The portfolio review

0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:12.720
<v Speaker 3>department does the research to figure out who would be

0:17:12.760 --> 0:17:16.160
<v Speaker 3>the best and most well equipped you know, index provider

0:17:16.200 --> 0:17:18.280
<v Speaker 3>for that type of mandate, and then our team works

0:17:18.359 --> 0:17:20.880
<v Speaker 3>very closely with them in terms of the due diligence

0:17:20.920 --> 0:17:25.040
<v Speaker 3>process and making sure that that index is constructed in

0:17:25.080 --> 0:17:27.800
<v Speaker 3>a way that we're comfortable and the right levels of

0:17:27.840 --> 0:17:30.040
<v Speaker 3>controls are in place. And then you know, once that's

0:17:30.040 --> 0:17:32.080
<v Speaker 3>set up, the team is ready to go to start

0:17:32.080 --> 0:17:34.320
<v Speaker 3>managing against that newly defined index.

0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:37.960
<v Speaker 2>And when you say there are gaps in your lineup,

0:17:38.000 --> 0:17:41.160
<v Speaker 2>you're not talking about trendy things like hey we don't

0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:44.119
<v Speaker 2>have a metaverse index. Oh look, we don't have an

0:17:44.160 --> 0:17:50.320
<v Speaker 2>AI index. It's always much broader and more permanent if

0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:52.200
<v Speaker 2>that's the right word, or long lasting on.

0:17:52.200 --> 0:17:55.119
<v Speaker 3>That yeah, yeah, you know, again, these need to have enduring,

0:17:55.160 --> 0:17:57.600
<v Speaker 3>long term investment merit. That's one of the key defining

0:17:57.640 --> 0:18:00.280
<v Speaker 3>principles before we launch a fund, is it is there

0:18:00.280 --> 0:18:03.280
<v Speaker 3>real value long term for this type of investment strategy.

0:18:03.480 --> 0:18:05.679
<v Speaker 3>And you're absolutely right, Vanguard is not the type of

0:18:05.720 --> 0:18:09.000
<v Speaker 3>firm that, you know, we'll launch thematic products that you

0:18:09.040 --> 0:18:12.560
<v Speaker 3>know are focused on when not it's AI water whatever,

0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:15.760
<v Speaker 3>That's just not what Vanguard does. We're looking for long term, enduring,

0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:19.879
<v Speaker 3>you know, investment solutions and products that will be you know,

0:18:20.000 --> 0:18:23.040
<v Speaker 3>we'll provide our investors with you know, long term opportunity

0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:24.480
<v Speaker 3>that will serve them really well.

0:18:24.800 --> 0:18:27.800
<v Speaker 2>So a couple of years ago I wrote a column

0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:31.840
<v Speaker 2>about this shocking little aspect of Vanguard that I think

0:18:31.880 --> 0:18:36.720
<v Speaker 2>nobody understood, which is the patents that Vanguard had on

0:18:36.880 --> 0:18:40.800
<v Speaker 2>the way you manage taxes for mutual funds, which made

0:18:40.800 --> 0:18:43.920
<v Speaker 2>your mutual funds behave more like atfs and that there

0:18:44.040 --> 0:18:48.440
<v Speaker 2>was no tax pass through typically. It kind of made

0:18:48.440 --> 0:18:53.080
<v Speaker 2>me think of a question. When you're the size of Vanguard,

0:18:53.200 --> 0:18:57.119
<v Speaker 2>how do you balance discipline on the one hand with

0:18:57.880 --> 0:19:01.520
<v Speaker 2>the need for creativity and occasionally thinking out of the box.

0:19:01.880 --> 0:19:05.600
<v Speaker 2>You would think they might be at odds. What's that like?

0:19:05.720 --> 0:19:08.119
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, the main thing very it's a great question. The

0:19:08.119 --> 0:19:10.360
<v Speaker 3>main thing goes back to, like what's the enduring philosophy.

0:19:10.440 --> 0:19:12.359
<v Speaker 3>What are we trying to accomplish for our clients. And

0:19:12.480 --> 0:19:13.560
<v Speaker 3>you know, at the end of the day, they come

0:19:13.600 --> 0:19:15.919
<v Speaker 3>to us to try to get long term exposure to

0:19:16.080 --> 0:19:17.760
<v Speaker 3>a segment of the market, and we want to do

0:19:17.840 --> 0:19:20.720
<v Speaker 3>that in the best possible way, making sure they're getting

0:19:20.760 --> 0:19:23.880
<v Speaker 3>the market return, you know, minus the expense ratio, which

0:19:23.880 --> 0:19:27.040
<v Speaker 3>again we will try to you know offset with security

0:19:27.119 --> 0:19:31.479
<v Speaker 3>lending revenue and you know thoughtful rebalancing strategies. But at

0:19:31.520 --> 0:19:33.399
<v Speaker 3>the end of the day, it's really boils down to

0:19:33.720 --> 0:19:37.760
<v Speaker 3>you know, broad based exposure in a low cost, diversified

0:19:37.760 --> 0:19:39.520
<v Speaker 3>way for our clients, which we think will ultimately serve

0:19:39.560 --> 0:19:42.040
<v Speaker 3>them really well as they're constructing their portfolios.

0:19:42.720 --> 0:19:47.000
<v Speaker 2>Most people think of Vanguard as passive. First, tell us

0:19:47.000 --> 0:19:50.000
<v Speaker 2>a little bit about what the chief investment officer does

0:19:50.520 --> 0:19:53.240
<v Speaker 2>for the passive side of an investment business.

0:19:53.280 --> 0:19:54.800
<v Speaker 3>A big part of it is really around when there's

0:19:54.840 --> 0:19:57.119
<v Speaker 3>more complicated corporate actions that are happening that you know,

0:19:57.320 --> 0:19:59.719
<v Speaker 3>entail a level risk. There's conversations that happen with our

0:19:59.760 --> 0:20:03.320
<v Speaker 3>risk management department to make sure we're comfortable in terms

0:20:03.320 --> 0:20:05.760
<v Speaker 3>of what kind of exposure that that that creates in

0:20:05.800 --> 0:20:06.240
<v Speaker 3>the fund.

0:20:06.320 --> 0:20:08.560
<v Speaker 2>And when you say corporate actions, we're talking about M

0:20:08.640 --> 0:20:13.240
<v Speaker 2>and A, I POS bankruptcies. Anytime somebody outside of your

0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:16.400
<v Speaker 2>decision making process either exits or enters.

0:20:16.800 --> 0:20:18.000
<v Speaker 1>A market, yeah, exactly.

0:20:18.000 --> 0:20:19.840
<v Speaker 3>So when you know when there's major turnover like that

0:20:19.840 --> 0:20:22.400
<v Speaker 3>that happens, you know you always have the option, Hey,

0:20:22.440 --> 0:20:24.159
<v Speaker 3>can you do it exactly on the time that it

0:20:24.280 --> 0:20:25.000
<v Speaker 3>enters the benchmark?

0:20:25.080 --> 0:20:26.280
<v Speaker 1>Do you need to do some of it ahead of time?

0:20:26.320 --> 0:20:28.840
<v Speaker 3>Do you need to do some of it afterwards to

0:20:28.880 --> 0:20:31.480
<v Speaker 3>try to smooth out the process. And you know that's

0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:33.040
<v Speaker 3>a risk decision that you have to make. You know

0:20:33.080 --> 0:20:34.560
<v Speaker 3>how much liquidy is going to be there when there's

0:20:34.560 --> 0:20:37.280
<v Speaker 3>a major activity that happens. Is the pricing more attractive

0:20:37.800 --> 0:20:40.000
<v Speaker 3>right away versus waiting until it starts trading in the

0:20:40.040 --> 0:20:43.080
<v Speaker 3>secondary market. Those are the considerations and the conversations that

0:20:43.119 --> 0:20:45.200
<v Speaker 3>we have with our risk team and our senior investment

0:20:45.240 --> 0:20:46.680
<v Speaker 3>professionals on the equity side.

0:20:46.840 --> 0:20:51.560
<v Speaker 2>So it's pretty well established amongst the academic research that

0:20:51.840 --> 0:20:56.000
<v Speaker 2>passive on the equity side beats active over the long haul,

0:20:56.560 --> 0:20:59.159
<v Speaker 2>but that's not true on the fixed income side. Active

0:20:59.200 --> 0:21:03.199
<v Speaker 2>on the fixed income tends to be passive because the

0:21:03.400 --> 0:21:06.359
<v Speaker 2>choices amongst fixed income are just so much greater than

0:21:06.400 --> 0:21:09.119
<v Speaker 2>what you have in equity. Tell us a little bit

0:21:09.119 --> 0:21:12.320
<v Speaker 2>about what USCIO do on the bond side.

0:21:12.440 --> 0:21:14.199
<v Speaker 3>So on the bond side, we have both, so you know,

0:21:14.240 --> 0:21:17.760
<v Speaker 3>we do bond indexing in a highly diversified way, cutting

0:21:17.800 --> 0:21:22.960
<v Speaker 3>across segments including you know, treasuries and including governments, corporates,

0:21:23.960 --> 0:21:26.679
<v Speaker 3>mortgages and things of that nature, global portfolios that give

0:21:26.680 --> 0:21:29.119
<v Speaker 3>you a tremendous amount of diversification that's headed back to

0:21:29.119 --> 0:21:32.560
<v Speaker 3>the US dollar, which in a highly diversified way is

0:21:32.600 --> 0:21:35.600
<v Speaker 3>a great way to get to get bond exposure. To

0:21:35.640 --> 0:21:37.919
<v Speaker 3>your point, in terms of you know, active fixed income,

0:21:38.440 --> 0:21:41.359
<v Speaker 3>we do have a very large active fixed income team

0:21:41.880 --> 0:21:44.080
<v Speaker 3>where that team has been very successful in terms of

0:21:44.080 --> 0:21:46.240
<v Speaker 3>being able to add value over the long term. And

0:21:46.280 --> 0:21:48.280
<v Speaker 3>so when you look at some of the results, and

0:21:48.640 --> 0:21:51.320
<v Speaker 3>a big chunk of that comes from, you know, our

0:21:51.400 --> 0:21:54.679
<v Speaker 3>credit research capabilities within the team, both investment grade, emerging

0:21:54.760 --> 0:21:58.200
<v Speaker 3>market as well as high yield. But ninety two percent

0:21:58.200 --> 0:22:00.119
<v Speaker 3>of our active bond funds have done better than the

0:22:00.440 --> 0:22:02.880
<v Speaker 3>average fund over their lipper group averages over a five

0:22:02.920 --> 0:22:05.560
<v Speaker 3>year period and eighty seven percent of our active fixed

0:22:05.560 --> 0:22:08.080
<v Speaker 3>income fund of outperform at benchmarks on a three year

0:22:08.119 --> 0:22:10.560
<v Speaker 3>basis against their benchmarks. And then you know, if you

0:22:10.600 --> 0:22:13.399
<v Speaker 3>look at a five year time horizon's seventy seven percent.

0:22:13.480 --> 0:22:16.600
<v Speaker 3>So you know our active team has been successful outperforming

0:22:16.600 --> 0:22:18.919
<v Speaker 3>at benchmarks. And you know, big part of it is

0:22:18.960 --> 0:22:20.399
<v Speaker 3>do you have the credit team that can do to

0:22:20.480 --> 0:22:23.199
<v Speaker 3>due diligence because credit is where we think we can

0:22:23.240 --> 0:22:25.800
<v Speaker 3>add the most value by credit research, and we see

0:22:25.840 --> 0:22:27.720
<v Speaker 3>that on the municipal bond side as well, where we

0:22:27.760 --> 0:22:31.240
<v Speaker 3>have a very active municipal bond franchise, and the credit

0:22:31.280 --> 0:22:34.800
<v Speaker 3>research allows that team to consistently add value relative to

0:22:34.800 --> 0:22:38.080
<v Speaker 3>the benchmarks, providing better, better outcomes for our client's long term.

0:22:38.200 --> 0:22:40.840
<v Speaker 2>It's really quite fascinating. On the equity side, two or

0:22:40.880 --> 0:22:43.679
<v Speaker 2>three percent of the stocks are where all the value

0:22:43.760 --> 0:22:47.080
<v Speaker 2>is created. On the fixed income side, it seems like

0:22:47.640 --> 0:22:51.240
<v Speaker 2>eliminating the worst ten twenty thirty percent of stocks in

0:22:51.359 --> 0:22:55.040
<v Speaker 2>terms of either risk or duration is where all the

0:22:56.280 --> 0:22:57.400
<v Speaker 2>alpha gets generated.

0:22:57.440 --> 0:22:59.400
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean in fixed income because again it tends

0:22:59.440 --> 0:23:01.280
<v Speaker 3>to be a defense into act class. What you want

0:23:01.320 --> 0:23:03.040
<v Speaker 3>to do is you want to try try to avoid

0:23:03.040 --> 0:23:05.159
<v Speaker 3>the losers, right, where you know, what's the what's the

0:23:05.240 --> 0:23:07.320
<v Speaker 3>upside When you invest in the bond, you know, you

0:23:07.320 --> 0:23:08.680
<v Speaker 3>get your money back, You get your money back, you

0:23:08.720 --> 0:23:10.480
<v Speaker 3>get your coup on payments and your principal. You know,

0:23:10.520 --> 0:23:13.560
<v Speaker 3>at maturity on time, the downside is you get zero

0:23:13.600 --> 0:23:16.200
<v Speaker 3>because the company files for bankruptcy and there's no recovery value.

0:23:16.920 --> 0:23:19.399
<v Speaker 3>So you know, again, for defensive asset class, we've always

0:23:19.440 --> 0:23:22.320
<v Speaker 3>thought that you want to limit the amount of risk

0:23:22.359 --> 0:23:24.479
<v Speaker 3>that you take in in what's supposed to be ballanced

0:23:24.480 --> 0:23:27.040
<v Speaker 3>in the portfolio. And you know, the way we're able

0:23:27.080 --> 0:23:29.720
<v Speaker 3>to accomplish that is that, you know, because we are

0:23:30.520 --> 0:23:33.320
<v Speaker 3>we have so much scale and ability, you know, to

0:23:33.400 --> 0:23:36.200
<v Speaker 3>keep costs low. At Vanguard at the end of the day,

0:23:36.720 --> 0:23:39.000
<v Speaker 3>our active fix income managers don't need to take the

0:23:39.000 --> 0:23:40.960
<v Speaker 3>same level of risk as some of our competitors, simply

0:23:41.000 --> 0:23:43.239
<v Speaker 3>because they don't have the same level of headwind. Our

0:23:43.240 --> 0:23:45.800
<v Speaker 3>expense ratios are lower, so when things don't look attractively

0:23:45.840 --> 0:23:48.479
<v Speaker 3>priced in the marketplace, you don't need to sit there

0:23:48.480 --> 0:23:51.200
<v Speaker 3>and try to overcome a heavy expense ratio all the time.

0:23:51.240 --> 0:23:53.120
<v Speaker 3>We can be patient, we can wait, we can wait

0:23:53.160 --> 0:23:55.439
<v Speaker 3>till the market's a bit more attractive. And when we

0:23:55.520 --> 0:23:58.520
<v Speaker 3>feel what we feel, we're being rewarded for risk taking.

0:23:58.800 --> 0:24:02.639
<v Speaker 2>There's a little mold ultiplier effect from the low cost

0:24:02.760 --> 0:24:07.399
<v Speaker 2>side of Vanguard in that you don't have to swing

0:24:07.440 --> 0:24:10.200
<v Speaker 2>at every pitch. The ability to say no, no, we're

0:24:10.200 --> 0:24:12.960
<v Speaker 2>good with this, We'll wait till opportunities look a lot

0:24:13.000 --> 0:24:16.120
<v Speaker 2>more attractive. I don't get that sense from a lot

0:24:16.119 --> 0:24:19.840
<v Speaker 2>of people in finance. They're judged every month, they're judged

0:24:19.880 --> 0:24:23.600
<v Speaker 2>every quarter, and they feel like, what's the old joke,

0:24:24.119 --> 0:24:27.160
<v Speaker 2>never never mistake activity for progress?

0:24:27.200 --> 0:24:27.600
<v Speaker 1>That's right?

0:24:27.640 --> 0:24:29.919
<v Speaker 2>That seems to be really common in Wall Street.

0:24:30.000 --> 0:24:30.200
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:24:30.200 --> 0:24:32.840
<v Speaker 3>I mean for our teams, our active teams, their performance

0:24:32.840 --> 0:24:34.919
<v Speaker 3>is valued on a three year basis, so you know,

0:24:35.520 --> 0:24:38.080
<v Speaker 3>three years, Ye, it's amazing. So when we think about

0:24:38.080 --> 0:24:41.160
<v Speaker 3>how how those teams are evaluated, it's a three year number.

0:24:41.160 --> 0:24:41.960
<v Speaker 1>So how did you perform?

0:24:42.000 --> 0:24:44.959
<v Speaker 3>Because in any given quarter, any given year, you know,

0:24:45.640 --> 0:24:47.760
<v Speaker 3>you could have you know, winners and losers in terms

0:24:47.800 --> 0:24:50.000
<v Speaker 3>of strategies. But what you're trying to do is you're

0:24:50.000 --> 0:24:53.120
<v Speaker 3>trying to string you know, good periods together and over

0:24:53.160 --> 0:24:55.439
<v Speaker 3>three year period, we feel like there's enough opportunities for

0:24:55.480 --> 0:24:57.359
<v Speaker 3>teams if they're good at what they do to add value,

0:24:57.520 --> 0:24:59.480
<v Speaker 3>and that's what we've been able to demonstrate over time.

0:25:00.000 --> 0:25:05.040
<v Speaker 2>It's so fascinating because I would assume that intellectually everybody

0:25:05.119 --> 0:25:09.639
<v Speaker 2>understands that's true, but emotionally two bad quarters and it's like,

0:25:09.720 --> 0:25:12.040
<v Speaker 2>we know, we told you three years, but we're getting

0:25:12.040 --> 0:25:14.320
<v Speaker 2>pressure from investors and we have to make a change,

0:25:14.560 --> 0:25:16.880
<v Speaker 2>Like to stay with that is really challenging.

0:25:16.920 --> 0:25:19.399
<v Speaker 3>Well, you know, it's a great point, Barry, but the

0:25:19.440 --> 0:25:21.240
<v Speaker 3>reality is, like when you're running portfolio is in a

0:25:21.320 --> 0:25:24.120
<v Speaker 3>highly risk controlled way. You're trying to manage the downside, right,

0:25:24.160 --> 0:25:26.159
<v Speaker 3>So when you have three years, you have three years

0:25:26.560 --> 0:25:28.239
<v Speaker 3>again because you're trying to make sure people have an

0:25:28.240 --> 0:25:31.159
<v Speaker 3>opportunity for their strategies to play out over time. But

0:25:31.200 --> 0:25:33.280
<v Speaker 3>you're also making sure that you're contraining the risk that

0:25:33.280 --> 0:25:34.720
<v Speaker 3>even if you do have a bad year, it's not

0:25:34.760 --> 0:25:37.680
<v Speaker 3>going to be it's not going to be so bad

0:25:37.680 --> 0:25:39.720
<v Speaker 3>that investors start running for the hills.

0:25:39.800 --> 0:25:40.000
<v Speaker 1>Again.

0:25:40.040 --> 0:25:42.000
<v Speaker 3>We want investors to stay in each product long term

0:25:42.040 --> 0:25:45.639
<v Speaker 3>because we think they provide good, long term, enduring value

0:25:45.640 --> 0:25:46.720
<v Speaker 3>for our clients.

0:25:46.720 --> 0:25:51.000
<v Speaker 2>And Vanguard famously, during the financial crisis, not only did

0:25:51.040 --> 0:25:54.359
<v Speaker 2>you not see outflows, you actually saw inflows. I got

0:25:54.480 --> 0:25:58.160
<v Speaker 2>to imagine a year like twenty twenty two wasn't horrible

0:25:58.160 --> 0:25:59.840
<v Speaker 2>for Vanguard's asset growth.

0:26:00.160 --> 0:26:01.800
<v Speaker 1>You know, it's interesting.

0:26:01.840 --> 0:26:04.240
<v Speaker 3>I mean, there's certain segments of markets that did quite well,

0:26:04.320 --> 0:26:06.480
<v Speaker 3>certain segments of the business. But you know, you also

0:26:06.560 --> 0:26:09.000
<v Speaker 3>have you also have a period of time when there's

0:26:09.000 --> 0:26:11.840
<v Speaker 3>repricing that happens in the fixed income space, like we

0:26:11.880 --> 0:26:13.879
<v Speaker 3>saw and it was pretty rapid last year, right, and

0:26:13.920 --> 0:26:14.399
<v Speaker 3>you had a.

0:26:14.480 --> 0:26:16.800
<v Speaker 2>Five hundred basis points of rate increases.

0:26:16.600 --> 0:26:18.760
<v Speaker 3>Exactly, that's exactly. And when you saw you know, the

0:26:19.240 --> 0:26:22.439
<v Speaker 3>US AD down thirteen percent last year. For folks who

0:26:22.400 --> 0:26:24.600
<v Speaker 3>again who are investing for retirement and in their five

0:26:24.680 --> 0:26:27.200
<v Speaker 3>twenty nine plans, they're not concerned about it. But when

0:26:27.240 --> 0:26:30.280
<v Speaker 3>you translate that to folks who might have a heavy

0:26:30.960 --> 0:26:34.720
<v Speaker 3>municipal bond portfolio, right, and those folks who are in retirement,

0:26:34.880 --> 0:26:37.399
<v Speaker 3>and you know, they don't like principal losses. They like

0:26:37.480 --> 0:26:40.200
<v Speaker 3>tax free income, but they also don't like principal losses.

0:26:40.200 --> 0:26:42.199
<v Speaker 3>So when you have a big backup like that, you

0:26:42.280 --> 0:26:44.560
<v Speaker 3>tend to see outflows in that segment of the market

0:26:44.600 --> 0:26:46.360
<v Speaker 3>more than you would see in the taxable market, which

0:26:46.440 --> 0:26:49.080
<v Speaker 3>tends to be in our case more long term retirement

0:26:49.119 --> 0:26:50.840
<v Speaker 3>orient in things of that nature. So you will see

0:26:50.840 --> 0:26:53.880
<v Speaker 3>some pressure on unis in those types of interest rate environments.

0:26:53.960 --> 0:26:57.440
<v Speaker 2>Huh. Really interesting. So let's talk a little bit about

0:26:57.640 --> 0:27:01.840
<v Speaker 2>last year, where all I heard was the sixty portfolio

0:27:02.119 --> 0:27:02.920
<v Speaker 2>is dead.

0:27:03.240 --> 0:27:07.119
<v Speaker 3>Discuss it's interesting. I mean, we've heard that over and

0:27:07.160 --> 0:27:10.119
<v Speaker 3>over again. You know, it was a tough year for

0:27:10.200 --> 0:27:12.440
<v Speaker 3>investors in terms of both stocks and bonds being down,

0:27:12.520 --> 0:27:15.399
<v Speaker 3>where stocks were down about twenty percent, the USAG was

0:27:15.440 --> 0:27:16.399
<v Speaker 3>down thirteen percent.

0:27:17.359 --> 0:27:19.480
<v Speaker 2>When was the last time we saw stocks and bonds down?

0:27:19.520 --> 0:27:21.680
<v Speaker 2>Double jigg It's like eighty one something like.

0:27:21.600 --> 0:27:23.560
<v Speaker 1>That somewhere in that type of horizon. Yeah, exactly.

0:27:23.640 --> 0:27:25.720
<v Speaker 3>So it's not something that many investors have been accustomed

0:27:25.720 --> 0:27:28.560
<v Speaker 3>to or have seen in their lifetimes. But the reality is,

0:27:28.640 --> 0:27:31.879
<v Speaker 3>the reality is when you think about the components in

0:27:31.920 --> 0:27:34.920
<v Speaker 3>the terms of long term investing, the bond portion of

0:27:34.960 --> 0:27:38.359
<v Speaker 3>the of the equation provides that balance in diversification. Now, again,

0:27:38.520 --> 0:27:41.919
<v Speaker 3>in any one given year, you will have a sixty,

0:27:41.960 --> 0:27:44.280
<v Speaker 3>You can have a sixty forty portfolio that underperforms and

0:27:44.760 --> 0:27:46.679
<v Speaker 3>both sides of the equation go down. But for a

0:27:46.680 --> 0:27:49.760
<v Speaker 3>long term investor who's saving for retirement, that balance and

0:27:49.840 --> 0:27:55.320
<v Speaker 3>diversification has has proved and developed delivered really good long

0:27:55.400 --> 0:27:58.000
<v Speaker 3>term returns. So when you go back to nineteen twenty six,

0:27:58.560 --> 0:28:01.160
<v Speaker 3>if you were an investor since then, sixty forty portfolio

0:28:01.160 --> 0:28:02.240
<v Speaker 3>has returned eight point eight.

0:28:02.119 --> 0:28:05.040
<v Speaker 1>Percent on average over that time horizon, which is impressive.

0:28:05.200 --> 0:28:07.920
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, because you know, again it provides you diversification and

0:28:08.000 --> 0:28:10.240
<v Speaker 3>reduces some of the volatility. But there will be periods

0:28:10.280 --> 0:28:13.879
<v Speaker 3>of time where again that type of portfolio when you know,

0:28:13.920 --> 0:28:16.600
<v Speaker 3>we were an environment where interest rates were held down

0:28:16.720 --> 0:28:20.720
<v Speaker 3>to historically low levels, so you know, when they repriced,

0:28:20.720 --> 0:28:22.640
<v Speaker 3>it's not surprising that you see losses on the bond

0:28:22.640 --> 0:28:25.320
<v Speaker 3>side of the equation. But if you go back to

0:28:25.320 --> 0:28:29.199
<v Speaker 3>the period before twenty twenty two, from twenty nineteen to

0:28:29.200 --> 0:28:32.480
<v Speaker 3>twenty twenty one, a sixty forty portfolio actually produced fourteen

0:28:32.520 --> 0:28:35.119
<v Speaker 3>percent returns over that time horizon, which is above the

0:28:35.160 --> 0:28:37.160
<v Speaker 3>long term average. So you know, in a grand scheme

0:28:37.200 --> 0:28:40.440
<v Speaker 3>of things, it's not surprising that there's periods of outperformance

0:28:40.640 --> 0:28:42.680
<v Speaker 3>and that ultimately will lead to periods of underperformance.

0:28:42.840 --> 0:28:45.560
<v Speaker 2>That's right, and I'm glad you mentioned the period before that.

0:28:45.600 --> 0:28:48.680
<v Speaker 2>Go to the decade before twenty twenty two. The equity

0:28:48.720 --> 0:28:51.600
<v Speaker 2>side was something like thirteen percent, and then whatever you

0:28:51.640 --> 0:28:53.920
<v Speaker 2>got from bonds was just a bonus. That's exactly the

0:28:53.960 --> 0:28:56.600
<v Speaker 2>top of that. People forget that when they see a

0:28:56.640 --> 0:29:00.479
<v Speaker 2>single year like twenty twenty two, and they really forget

0:29:00.520 --> 0:29:04.400
<v Speaker 2>that in a year like twenty twenty three where everything

0:29:04.480 --> 0:29:07.000
<v Speaker 2>is going up, I mean other than gold, what hasn't

0:29:07.000 --> 0:29:09.640
<v Speaker 2>been going up this year? How do you deal with

0:29:09.800 --> 0:29:14.040
<v Speaker 2>the opposite of last year with the first half like

0:29:14.080 --> 0:29:14.480
<v Speaker 2>this year.

0:29:14.600 --> 0:29:17.160
<v Speaker 3>Well, look, you know, clearly the equity market has been

0:29:17.480 --> 0:29:19.840
<v Speaker 3>on a tremendous tear so far this year, up eighteen

0:29:20.000 --> 0:29:23.360
<v Speaker 3>eighteen nineteen percent year to date. But the key thing

0:29:23.400 --> 0:29:25.840
<v Speaker 3>there is, like again, investors have to keep in mind

0:29:25.880 --> 0:29:29.880
<v Speaker 3>that that's probably not sustainable long term. And so again

0:29:30.000 --> 0:29:33.480
<v Speaker 3>the importance of having a diversified portfolio is critically important.

0:29:33.880 --> 0:29:36.240
<v Speaker 3>And just think about, you know, fixed income and money

0:29:36.240 --> 0:29:38.640
<v Speaker 3>markets as an asset class. You know, for a decade

0:29:39.120 --> 0:29:41.640
<v Speaker 3>you weren't earning anything in a money market fund because

0:29:41.760 --> 0:29:44.120
<v Speaker 3>interest rates by the Federal Reserve were pegged to zero

0:29:44.760 --> 0:29:47.040
<v Speaker 3>and you have to take on significant duration risk and

0:29:47.080 --> 0:29:49.320
<v Speaker 3>credit risk just to earn a couple percentage points. And

0:29:49.360 --> 0:29:52.080
<v Speaker 3>now you know you're in an environment where money market

0:29:52.120 --> 0:29:54.960
<v Speaker 3>funds are yielding five and a quarter percent. You have,

0:29:55.160 --> 0:29:57.360
<v Speaker 3>you know, the US AG that's yielding somewhere close to

0:29:57.400 --> 0:30:00.040
<v Speaker 3>five percent, so four and a half five percent, And

0:30:00.080 --> 0:30:02.000
<v Speaker 3>so in a grand scheme of things, investors are actually

0:30:02.040 --> 0:30:04.360
<v Speaker 3>being rewarded for having exposure.

0:30:03.880 --> 0:30:05.440
<v Speaker 1>To money markets and bond funds.

0:30:05.480 --> 0:30:07.800
<v Speaker 3>And so, you know, if people are truly concerned about

0:30:07.800 --> 0:30:09.800
<v Speaker 3>a sixty forty portfolio, they should be concerned about it

0:30:09.880 --> 0:30:12.160
<v Speaker 3>for ten years. Now's not the time when you're back

0:30:12.200 --> 0:30:14.400
<v Speaker 3>to an environment where you're actually getting a real yield

0:30:14.480 --> 0:30:16.040
<v Speaker 3>when it comes to the bond market.

0:30:16.160 --> 0:30:19.160
<v Speaker 2>I'm glad you brought up money markets because it's this

0:30:19.320 --> 0:30:24.440
<v Speaker 2>overlooked area that when you have rates at ultra low levels,

0:30:25.160 --> 0:30:28.480
<v Speaker 2>it kind of gets forgotten about. But is it fair

0:30:28.520 --> 0:30:32.240
<v Speaker 2>to say that this year and perhaps last year you

0:30:32.280 --> 0:30:36.920
<v Speaker 2>saw a big shift of client cash assets into money markets.

0:30:36.960 --> 0:30:39.160
<v Speaker 3>We definitely saw we definitely saw a number of clients

0:30:39.160 --> 0:30:42.480
<v Speaker 3>who started embracing money markets. And the reality is for

0:30:42.520 --> 0:30:45.040
<v Speaker 3>a lot of investors, it truly is free money. Right,

0:30:45.080 --> 0:30:46.880
<v Speaker 3>So when you think about what people are earning in

0:30:46.960 --> 0:30:50.280
<v Speaker 3>their deposit accounts at their banks, and banks have historically

0:30:50.280 --> 0:30:53.400
<v Speaker 3>been very slow, today very slow in terms of raising

0:30:53.440 --> 0:30:56.560
<v Speaker 3>deposit rates because those deposits tend to be very sticky.

0:30:56.800 --> 0:30:59.680
<v Speaker 3>And I've had people stop me, even at Vanguard in

0:30:59.720 --> 0:31:01.920
<v Speaker 3>the hall way and say, wow, I didn't realize that

0:31:01.960 --> 0:31:03.760
<v Speaker 3>I've been leaving this much money on the table by

0:31:03.800 --> 0:31:06.400
<v Speaker 3>keeping you know, a sizeable amount of deposits at my bank.

0:31:06.560 --> 0:31:08.080
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I've moved it to a money market.

0:31:08.160 --> 0:31:09.840
<v Speaker 3>Now I'm getting a you know, five and a quarter

0:31:09.840 --> 0:31:12.600
<v Speaker 3>percent type yield, which is amazing when some folks are

0:31:12.600 --> 0:31:14.680
<v Speaker 3>still getting you know, less than half a percent in

0:31:14.760 --> 0:31:16.680
<v Speaker 3>many cases at the in the in the bank.

0:31:16.800 --> 0:31:19.920
<v Speaker 2>So it's shocking that this has gone on. How much

0:31:20.000 --> 0:31:24.280
<v Speaker 2>inertia there is in finance that even if you're just

0:31:24.360 --> 0:31:27.600
<v Speaker 2>getting your December bonus that you're going to pay Uncle

0:31:27.640 --> 0:31:31.320
<v Speaker 2>Sam in April, leaving that money in a savings account

0:31:31.400 --> 0:31:33.320
<v Speaker 2>for a third of the year, you're leaving a chunk

0:31:33.360 --> 0:31:33.680
<v Speaker 2>of change.

0:31:33.800 --> 0:31:35.840
<v Speaker 1>Free money. It's free money. It's free money.

0:31:36.360 --> 0:31:40.280
<v Speaker 2>Quite interesting. So at what point do you think high

0:31:40.440 --> 0:31:44.600
<v Speaker 2>yields become a headwind for stocks or is it just

0:31:45.120 --> 0:31:48.440
<v Speaker 2>overall part of the sixty forty portfolio? And hey, we'll

0:31:48.480 --> 0:31:50.520
<v Speaker 2>either taken on the equity have for the bond half.

0:31:50.560 --> 0:31:51.080
<v Speaker 2>We don't care.

0:31:51.440 --> 0:31:52.880
<v Speaker 3>Well, you know, I think if you look at if

0:31:52.880 --> 0:31:55.680
<v Speaker 3>you look at what our return expectations are for the

0:31:55.720 --> 0:31:59.480
<v Speaker 3>global balance portfolio, we're expecting that over the next decade

0:31:59.560 --> 0:32:01.960
<v Speaker 3>or so, somewhere in the neighborhood of about you know,

0:32:02.040 --> 0:32:04.560
<v Speaker 3>five and a half percent for a global balance portfolio,

0:32:04.720 --> 0:32:09.960
<v Speaker 3>so combination of equities, bonds, US and international stocks. And

0:32:10.520 --> 0:32:13.560
<v Speaker 3>the reality is, you know, our return expectations for the

0:32:13.640 --> 0:32:15.480
<v Speaker 3>US equity market is a bit more muted. You know,

0:32:15.520 --> 0:32:18.760
<v Speaker 3>we're expecting US equity market returns to help our somewhere

0:32:18.760 --> 0:32:22.400
<v Speaker 3>around five percent or so were international equities because of valuations,

0:32:22.400 --> 0:32:23.960
<v Speaker 3>probably seven to seven and a half perc.

0:32:24.120 --> 0:32:28.800
<v Speaker 2>So let's talk about that because that gap invaluation has

0:32:28.960 --> 0:32:32.400
<v Speaker 2>persisted for a long time. Certainly for a few years

0:32:32.840 --> 0:32:37.720
<v Speaker 2>after the financial crisis, it seemed like US stocks were pricey,

0:32:39.120 --> 0:32:44.520
<v Speaker 2>forward return expectations were low, and the opposite was true overseas,

0:32:45.080 --> 0:32:47.600
<v Speaker 2>but the US seemed to be the only place to be.

0:32:48.480 --> 0:32:54.120
<v Speaker 2>How durable is that shift, given how large that gap

0:32:54.120 --> 0:32:58.160
<v Speaker 2>has gotten in valuation between US stocks and the rest

0:32:58.200 --> 0:32:59.240
<v Speaker 2>of the developed world.

0:32:59.440 --> 0:33:01.560
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean, if you were to take a look

0:33:01.600 --> 0:33:05.800
<v Speaker 3>at what's happened over the last last ten years, looking

0:33:05.800 --> 0:33:07.920
<v Speaker 3>at the s and P five hundred index versus you know,

0:33:07.960 --> 0:33:11.440
<v Speaker 3>like the Footz Global Allcap XUS there was a seven

0:33:11.560 --> 0:33:15.240
<v Speaker 3>percentage point difference per year by being seven seven hundred

0:33:15.280 --> 0:33:18.600
<v Speaker 3>basis points of outperformance by the US market relative to

0:33:19.040 --> 0:33:21.720
<v Speaker 3>the international markets. But you know, so if you were

0:33:21.760 --> 0:33:23.960
<v Speaker 3>to take a look at where PE ratios are today

0:33:24.520 --> 0:33:26.400
<v Speaker 3>between the S and P, which has an earning yield

0:33:26.440 --> 0:33:28.400
<v Speaker 3>of about five percent, and you look at the Footz

0:33:28.560 --> 0:33:31.640
<v Speaker 3>Global Allcap x US, it has an earning yield of

0:33:31.680 --> 0:33:34.959
<v Speaker 3>eight point three percent, right, and so not in substantial

0:33:35.200 --> 0:33:37.840
<v Speaker 3>there's a substantial difference. Now, there are sector differences, so

0:33:38.000 --> 0:33:39.840
<v Speaker 3>you know, and we could talk about that to some

0:33:39.920 --> 0:33:41.920
<v Speaker 3>degree as well, but the reality, even if you adjust

0:33:41.960 --> 0:33:44.720
<v Speaker 3>for sector differences, there's still a big gap. There's still

0:33:44.720 --> 0:33:47.000
<v Speaker 3>a big gap in terms of the PE ratios across

0:33:47.040 --> 0:33:49.080
<v Speaker 3>the US market relative to the rest of the world.

0:33:49.520 --> 0:33:53.680
<v Speaker 3>And so unless we expect earnings for US companies to

0:33:53.960 --> 0:33:57.680
<v Speaker 3>vastly outpace what's happening in the international markets, and it might,

0:33:58.120 --> 0:33:59.840
<v Speaker 3>but there's a lot of great news already priced into

0:33:59.840 --> 0:34:02.320
<v Speaker 3>the marketplace. And when you think about translating S and

0:34:02.360 --> 0:34:05.560
<v Speaker 3>P five hundred PE to a you know, an implied

0:34:05.640 --> 0:34:09.680
<v Speaker 3>equity risk premium. By looking at the ten year treasury yield,

0:34:10.400 --> 0:34:12.279
<v Speaker 3>you know, you're two hundred basis points below what it's

0:34:12.320 --> 0:34:13.560
<v Speaker 3>been for the last ten years.

0:34:13.920 --> 0:34:18.200
<v Speaker 2>So let's let's do a little comparison. Because I'm always

0:34:18.520 --> 0:34:22.480
<v Speaker 2>skeptical when we're people focus on a single metric like

0:34:22.560 --> 0:34:26.280
<v Speaker 2>price to earnings. I want to make that more three dimensional.

0:34:26.560 --> 0:34:29.960
<v Speaker 2>So if Europe is at an eight point three earning

0:34:30.000 --> 0:34:33.640
<v Speaker 2>shield and we're about a five percent, what's the growth

0:34:33.719 --> 0:34:37.719
<v Speaker 2>rate difference between the two? Meaning are people willing to

0:34:37.760 --> 0:34:40.160
<v Speaker 2>give up a little bit of earnings in order to

0:34:40.520 --> 0:34:44.360
<v Speaker 2>accept a faster growth rate that certainly we've seen on

0:34:44.400 --> 0:34:47.600
<v Speaker 2>the tech side. I can't speak across every sector.

0:34:47.920 --> 0:34:49.600
<v Speaker 3>Well, I think there's a couple of things. There's a

0:34:49.600 --> 0:34:51.080
<v Speaker 3>couple of things that are very I mean, one of

0:34:51.120 --> 0:34:53.520
<v Speaker 3>it is, you know, you know, do you expect the

0:34:53.560 --> 0:34:55.840
<v Speaker 3>earnings growth to live up to the expectations that are

0:34:55.880 --> 0:34:59.799
<v Speaker 3>already priced into the US market. And if so, that's

0:35:00.080 --> 0:35:01.880
<v Speaker 3>fine for where we are, but that's not necessarily going

0:35:01.920 --> 0:35:04.120
<v Speaker 3>to lead to multiple multiple expansion, right, And a big

0:35:04.200 --> 0:35:07.799
<v Speaker 3>driver of the outperformance over the last decade of US

0:35:07.840 --> 0:35:11.360
<v Speaker 3>stocks for relative the international evaluation expansion. So that's all sentiment

0:35:11.920 --> 0:35:13.719
<v Speaker 3>that's exactly it, and a lot of we would say,

0:35:13.719 --> 0:35:15.920
<v Speaker 3>a lot of that's probably already baked into the marketplace

0:35:15.920 --> 0:35:17.839
<v Speaker 3>and is run its course. Could it go further, of

0:35:17.840 --> 0:35:20.560
<v Speaker 3>course it could, but at some point there is a

0:35:20.600 --> 0:35:23.399
<v Speaker 3>tipping point where people start saying, well, in the US,

0:35:23.440 --> 0:35:26.560
<v Speaker 3>I have alternatives. I have alternatives because I can go

0:35:26.600 --> 0:35:28.239
<v Speaker 3>out and buy a money market fund at five and

0:35:28.280 --> 0:35:30.640
<v Speaker 3>a quarter percent and I don't have to take a

0:35:30.640 --> 0:35:33.479
<v Speaker 3>lot of risk. And you know, if if again based

0:35:33.520 --> 0:35:38.000
<v Speaker 3>on our forecast for US equity markets, they're somewhat muted

0:35:38.040 --> 0:35:40.719
<v Speaker 3>because valuations are stretched in our view relative to our

0:35:40.760 --> 0:35:43.440
<v Speaker 3>fair value model. And so I think a lot of

0:35:43.440 --> 0:35:45.880
<v Speaker 3>investors have alternatives. They can buy money markets, they can

0:35:45.880 --> 0:35:49.000
<v Speaker 3>buy bond funds, where there was no alternative ten you know,

0:35:49.040 --> 0:35:50.680
<v Speaker 3>for the last ten years, because we didn't get any

0:35:50.680 --> 0:35:52.960
<v Speaker 3>real yield when it came to the fixed income or

0:35:53.000 --> 0:35:55.160
<v Speaker 3>a money market space. But there's really alternatives today for

0:35:55.239 --> 0:35:57.480
<v Speaker 3>investors either in fixed income money markets.

0:35:57.480 --> 0:35:58.759
<v Speaker 1>Are international stocks? Right?

0:35:58.840 --> 0:36:02.280
<v Speaker 2>The twenty ten's were certainly the Tina decade. It's funny

0:36:02.280 --> 0:36:05.880
<v Speaker 2>you mentioned multiple expansion. When you look at the eighty

0:36:05.880 --> 0:36:09.560
<v Speaker 2>two to two thousand bull market, something like seventy five

0:36:09.600 --> 0:36:12.719
<v Speaker 2>percent of those gains came not from earnings growth, but

0:36:12.880 --> 0:36:16.480
<v Speaker 2>from a multiple expansion. I'm curious if that's kind of

0:36:16.520 --> 0:36:22.719
<v Speaker 2>repeating now and the twenty twenty pandemic fiscal stimulus, which

0:36:22.840 --> 0:36:26.920
<v Speaker 2>was massive under two presidents, What does that do in

0:36:27.000 --> 0:36:31.200
<v Speaker 2>terms of resetting the cycle? And can we stay pricey

0:36:31.320 --> 0:36:34.160
<v Speaker 2>forget higher for longer? Can we stay pricey for longer

0:36:34.200 --> 0:36:37.240
<v Speaker 2>given all the stimulus that's coursing through the system.

0:36:37.400 --> 0:36:39.400
<v Speaker 3>Well, I think there's a couple of things. One, it

0:36:39.520 --> 0:36:42.319
<v Speaker 3>becomes a factor. Yeah, you know, the economy can clearly

0:36:42.440 --> 0:36:45.760
<v Speaker 3>keep rowing along, which we've seen, you know, the fiscal

0:36:45.760 --> 0:36:48.000
<v Speaker 3>stimulus that we've seen. You know, you know there's over

0:36:48.040 --> 0:36:51.320
<v Speaker 3>two trillion dollars that was saved. You know, our reports

0:36:51.360 --> 0:36:53.040
<v Speaker 3>show and some of the data out in the marketplace

0:36:53.080 --> 0:36:56.200
<v Speaker 3>shows that about a trillion dollars of that has already

0:36:56.239 --> 0:36:59.280
<v Speaker 3>been spent down. So we you know, investors and savers

0:36:59.360 --> 0:37:01.879
<v Speaker 3>are definitely eating into that that that safety net, which

0:37:02.239 --> 0:37:04.360
<v Speaker 3>over time is that continues to decline, should slow the

0:37:04.360 --> 0:37:05.800
<v Speaker 3>economy down to some degree.

0:37:06.560 --> 0:37:08.080
<v Speaker 1>So I think that's going to be a big factor.

0:37:08.120 --> 0:37:09.880
<v Speaker 3>But then you know, when you think about you know,

0:37:09.920 --> 0:37:14.200
<v Speaker 3>the broader equity markets, again, the biggest thing that would

0:37:14.200 --> 0:37:16.640
<v Speaker 3>be concerning if you start seeing a continued rise in

0:37:16.640 --> 0:37:20.840
<v Speaker 3>interest rates and that has to put pressure on equity valuations.

0:37:20.880 --> 0:37:24.120
<v Speaker 3>I mean, equities are a ultra long duration asset, and

0:37:24.160 --> 0:37:27.799
<v Speaker 3>if you're discounting those future cash flows at higher interest rates,

0:37:27.840 --> 0:37:29.520
<v Speaker 3>that means you get a lower present value and at

0:37:29.520 --> 0:37:31.960
<v Speaker 3>some point that will bite. Who knows when that's going

0:37:32.000 --> 0:37:34.000
<v Speaker 3>to be. Nobody knows when when you could see that

0:37:34.080 --> 0:37:37.279
<v Speaker 3>kind of that kind of return to normal, but you

0:37:37.320 --> 0:37:39.520
<v Speaker 3>know you would you would definitely expect that higher interest

0:37:39.600 --> 0:37:42.600
<v Speaker 3>rates will put continued pressure on the equity market and

0:37:42.640 --> 0:37:46.239
<v Speaker 3>get valuations back to something that's more more normalized over time,

0:37:46.280 --> 0:37:48.680
<v Speaker 3>because you do expect if you're investing in equities, to

0:37:48.719 --> 0:37:50.920
<v Speaker 3>earn equity risk premium, and the fact that it's so

0:37:51.000 --> 0:37:53.319
<v Speaker 3>much lower than what we've seen historically, it starts to

0:37:53.320 --> 0:37:55.440
<v Speaker 3>beg the question how much exposure. If I'm a shorter

0:37:55.520 --> 0:37:57.800
<v Speaker 3>term investor, how much exposure do I want in that space?

0:37:58.080 --> 0:37:59.640
<v Speaker 3>For long term investors, it doesn't matter.

0:37:59.760 --> 0:38:02.640
<v Speaker 2>So let's let's stay with interest rates for a moment.

0:38:03.200 --> 0:38:06.040
<v Speaker 2>Interest rates are much higher than they've been over the

0:38:06.080 --> 0:38:09.520
<v Speaker 2>past decade, But let's look at the past fifty or

0:38:09.800 --> 0:38:14.200
<v Speaker 2>seventy five years. Interest rates today are clearly above where

0:38:14.239 --> 0:38:17.880
<v Speaker 2>they were, but they're not especially high by historical standards.

0:38:17.880 --> 0:38:19.560
<v Speaker 2>I think a lot of people confuse those two.

0:38:19.760 --> 0:38:21.480
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think I think a lot of investors end

0:38:21.520 --> 0:38:25.160
<v Speaker 3>up succumbing to recency biases. Right, So, the fact that

0:38:25.200 --> 0:38:29.080
<v Speaker 3>we've been in an environment where interesting zero anymore, that's

0:38:29.120 --> 0:38:31.759
<v Speaker 3>exactly so people think that that's the end. I think

0:38:31.800 --> 0:38:33.480
<v Speaker 3>what you have to look at, and our team has

0:38:33.480 --> 0:38:35.520
<v Speaker 3>done work on this, you have to look at what

0:38:35.600 --> 0:38:39.759
<v Speaker 3>do you think is the appropriate level for FED funds

0:38:39.760 --> 0:38:43.160
<v Speaker 3>in the neutral state where it's not stimulative or you know,

0:38:44.360 --> 0:38:47.200
<v Speaker 3>or you know, contracting the marketplace. And so some of

0:38:47.200 --> 0:38:49.280
<v Speaker 3>the research our team has done it says that, look,

0:38:49.480 --> 0:38:52.160
<v Speaker 3>you know, long term FED funds could be higher than

0:38:52.160 --> 0:38:54.000
<v Speaker 3>what the market is pricing in the market, and the

0:38:54.040 --> 0:38:56.320
<v Speaker 3>Fed have said, you know, probably when they put our stars,

0:38:56.680 --> 0:38:58.880
<v Speaker 3>you know, fifty basis points or half a percent. You

0:38:58.920 --> 0:39:00.799
<v Speaker 3>have two percent inflation on top of that, that gives

0:39:00.800 --> 0:39:02.320
<v Speaker 3>you a long term FED funds at two and a

0:39:02.360 --> 0:39:05.759
<v Speaker 3>half percent, right. You know, our Investment Strategy group, through

0:39:05.800 --> 0:39:08.960
<v Speaker 3>their analysis, they estimate that our star is probably closer.

0:39:08.719 --> 0:39:09.560
<v Speaker 1>One and a half percent.

0:39:09.920 --> 0:39:11.600
<v Speaker 3>So that brings you to a longer term FED funds

0:39:11.640 --> 0:39:13.359
<v Speaker 3>target of closer to three and a half if they're

0:39:13.360 --> 0:39:16.879
<v Speaker 3>successful at bringing rates back down to two inflation back

0:39:16.880 --> 0:39:18.640
<v Speaker 3>down to two, I should say, and then if you

0:39:18.640 --> 0:39:21.480
<v Speaker 3>build a normal you know, term structure on top of

0:39:21.480 --> 0:39:24.719
<v Speaker 3>that between you know, three month treasury bills and ten

0:39:24.760 --> 0:39:27.120
<v Speaker 3>year bonds of about one hundred basis points, you know,

0:39:27.080 --> 0:39:28.520
<v Speaker 3>and that brings you to a ten year that's probably

0:39:28.520 --> 0:39:31.799
<v Speaker 3>fair around four and a half percent. And so, but

0:39:31.880 --> 0:39:33.680
<v Speaker 3>it all depends on you know, what happens from a

0:39:33.880 --> 0:39:38.080
<v Speaker 3>you know, an inflation perspective, economic growth perspective, and how

0:39:38.120 --> 0:39:40.719
<v Speaker 3>aggressive the Fed will have to be, you know, going

0:39:40.760 --> 0:39:42.200
<v Speaker 3>down and going down the path here.

0:39:43.040 --> 0:39:44.360
<v Speaker 1>But again we think.

0:39:44.160 --> 0:39:46.680
<v Speaker 3>That you know, there is some risks that you know,

0:39:46.760 --> 0:39:48.960
<v Speaker 3>rach will have to go a bit higher here, you know,

0:39:49.040 --> 0:39:50.800
<v Speaker 3>just giving everything that's going on in the economy, in

0:39:50.840 --> 0:39:51.960
<v Speaker 3>the marketplace.

0:39:51.719 --> 0:39:53.719
<v Speaker 2>And the ten year is not all that far away

0:39:53.760 --> 0:39:55.520
<v Speaker 2>from four and a half. It's not that that's something

0:39:55.600 --> 0:39:58.799
<v Speaker 2>that end of year is not unthinkable, that's right, Huh.

0:39:58.880 --> 0:40:03.720
<v Speaker 2>Really interesting, So everybody seems kind of shocked by what's

0:40:03.760 --> 0:40:07.239
<v Speaker 2>taking place in twenty twenty three, although to be fair,

0:40:07.400 --> 0:40:10.879
<v Speaker 2>everybody seemed shocked at what took place in twenty twenty two.

0:40:11.640 --> 0:40:14.120
<v Speaker 2>What are your thoughts about how Wall Street plays this

0:40:14.280 --> 0:40:19.759
<v Speaker 2>forecasting game where everybody's thrown a dart, someone randomly gets

0:40:19.800 --> 0:40:22.520
<v Speaker 2>it right, But it just seems like it's a weird

0:40:22.560 --> 0:40:25.880
<v Speaker 2>game to be playing with people's serious money.

0:40:26.120 --> 0:40:29.440
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, we try not to be in the short term

0:40:29.480 --> 0:40:32.520
<v Speaker 3>forecasting game. And you know, forecasting is really hard, and

0:40:32.600 --> 0:40:34.920
<v Speaker 3>it's even harder to the extent you're doing it for

0:40:34.960 --> 0:40:37.600
<v Speaker 3>the short term. And so you know, when we think

0:40:37.600 --> 0:40:40.239
<v Speaker 3>about the vang Or Capital Markets model, which drives a

0:40:40.239 --> 0:40:44.239
<v Speaker 3>lot of our advice engines and the recommendations that we

0:40:44.320 --> 0:40:47.759
<v Speaker 3>provide the client, the truly not point forecast in the

0:40:47.880 --> 0:40:50.719
<v Speaker 3>narrow sense of how people tend to do forecast. It's

0:40:50.760 --> 0:40:55.600
<v Speaker 3>really the median results of a large simulation that shows

0:40:55.640 --> 0:40:58.920
<v Speaker 3>a probabilistic you know, determination of results, and it runs

0:40:58.920 --> 0:41:01.759
<v Speaker 3>a scale and then meetiing is basically that midpoint of

0:41:01.840 --> 0:41:04.279
<v Speaker 3>all those observations, and so you know, we have a

0:41:04.320 --> 0:41:07.200
<v Speaker 3>distribution around that, and so again, you know there's gonna

0:41:07.200 --> 0:41:08.640
<v Speaker 3>be periods of time when you're in the tail, both

0:41:08.640 --> 0:41:11.879
<v Speaker 3>positively and negatively. But again, what we try to say

0:41:11.920 --> 0:41:14.640
<v Speaker 3>to our clients, you have no control about how volatile

0:41:14.680 --> 0:41:16.480
<v Speaker 3>the market it's going to be. What you can control

0:41:16.520 --> 0:41:19.120
<v Speaker 3>at the end of the day is how diversified you are,

0:41:19.800 --> 0:41:23.120
<v Speaker 3>how cognizant you are to the cost that you're paying

0:41:23.160 --> 0:41:26.160
<v Speaker 3>for the funds that you're investing in, and doing that

0:41:26.200 --> 0:41:28.080
<v Speaker 3>in a highly diversified, low cost way, we think is

0:41:28.080 --> 0:41:30.360
<v Speaker 3>going to provide investors the best chance for their investment

0:41:30.520 --> 0:41:35.080
<v Speaker 3>success long term, versus focusing on you know, daily news announcements,

0:41:35.120 --> 0:41:38.640
<v Speaker 3>what's happening. Those are the types of things that create

0:41:38.680 --> 0:41:41.520
<v Speaker 3>trading activity but don't tend to add value for long

0:41:41.600 --> 0:41:42.320
<v Speaker 3>term investors.

0:41:42.560 --> 0:41:47.319
<v Speaker 2>So you recently came out and criticized some of the

0:41:47.360 --> 0:41:51.840
<v Speaker 2>market timing that's been going on. What I found shocking

0:41:51.880 --> 0:41:55.200
<v Speaker 2>about that was we really have to warn people about

0:41:55.200 --> 0:41:59.239
<v Speaker 2>the dangers of market timing and overtrading to hasn't that

0:41:59.719 --> 0:42:04.360
<v Speaker 2>isn't had an issue that the academics have long ago resolved.

0:42:04.800 --> 0:42:06.200
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, but it is.

0:42:06.280 --> 0:42:09.080
<v Speaker 3>It is very I mean, the data will show that

0:42:09.160 --> 0:42:12.680
<v Speaker 3>it is not fruitful. It is not helpful to long

0:42:12.760 --> 0:42:15.040
<v Speaker 3>term investors to engage in that type activity. But we

0:42:15.080 --> 0:42:17.799
<v Speaker 3>don't have to look too far past with the meme

0:42:17.880 --> 0:42:20.960
<v Speaker 3>stocks and things of that nature, where you know, a

0:42:21.080 --> 0:42:23.839
<v Speaker 3>variety of reasons. Things pop on the headline and there's

0:42:23.880 --> 0:42:26.759
<v Speaker 3>a lot of momentum, and folks get involved, and you know,

0:42:26.840 --> 0:42:29.120
<v Speaker 3>people get caught up and believe it's you know, it's

0:42:29.160 --> 0:42:31.560
<v Speaker 3>easy money and it's free money, and the reality is

0:42:31.600 --> 0:42:35.399
<v Speaker 3>that's speculation and not investing. And so, you know, speculating

0:42:35.520 --> 0:42:39.000
<v Speaker 3>is you know, that's a very risky strategy, and you know,

0:42:39.040 --> 0:42:41.040
<v Speaker 3>when we think about investing, that's not the way you

0:42:41.080 --> 0:42:43.200
<v Speaker 3>construct an investment portfolio. If you want to do that

0:42:43.280 --> 0:42:47.200
<v Speaker 3>from a speculative, speculative standpoint, that's fine, do that with

0:42:47.280 --> 0:42:50.080
<v Speaker 3>a very small portion of your portfolio, but the majority

0:42:50.080 --> 0:42:52.279
<v Speaker 3>of it should be investing in long term strategies that

0:42:52.280 --> 0:42:54.040
<v Speaker 3>will add value and are enduring.

0:42:54.560 --> 0:43:01.640
<v Speaker 2>My favorite part of TikTok were the TikTok speculative traders. Hey,

0:43:02.320 --> 0:43:05.040
<v Speaker 2>investing is easy just by stocks that are going up

0:43:05.440 --> 0:43:07.279
<v Speaker 2>and when they stop going up, you sell them. And

0:43:07.680 --> 0:43:10.960
<v Speaker 2>what could be an easier way to support your lifestyle?

0:43:11.440 --> 0:43:14.880
<v Speaker 2>And as that was happening in real time during twenty twenty,

0:43:15.640 --> 0:43:17.960
<v Speaker 2>I'm sure you felt the same thing. I felt like,

0:43:18.600 --> 0:43:21.239
<v Speaker 2>I've seen this movie. I know exactly how this is

0:43:21.280 --> 0:43:21.759
<v Speaker 2>going to end.

0:43:21.960 --> 0:43:23.920
<v Speaker 3>That's exactly right, very I mean, I've been in this

0:43:23.960 --> 0:43:28.719
<v Speaker 3>industry long enough. I started my career in finance in

0:43:28.840 --> 0:43:32.319
<v Speaker 3>nineteen ninety eight and very familiar with the dot com

0:43:32.360 --> 0:43:35.359
<v Speaker 3>era and what happened there, and it was very very

0:43:35.400 --> 0:43:38.399
<v Speaker 3>reminiscent of that period of time where you know, during

0:43:38.400 --> 0:43:42.160
<v Speaker 3>that period, anything with a dot com behind it, you know,

0:43:42.520 --> 0:43:45.240
<v Speaker 3>ran to the moon and you couldn't go wrong. Well,

0:43:45.440 --> 0:43:47.319
<v Speaker 3>that works until it doesn't, and then one day you

0:43:47.360 --> 0:43:49.799
<v Speaker 3>realize that these companies actually they have to be real

0:43:49.840 --> 0:43:53.440
<v Speaker 3>companies that make money, produce earnings, and our viable businesses.

0:43:53.680 --> 0:43:57.399
<v Speaker 3>And you know, in a speculative fever, people lose sight

0:43:57.520 --> 0:44:01.160
<v Speaker 3>that you know, having cash flow, having earnings matters in

0:44:01.200 --> 0:44:03.600
<v Speaker 3>the long run. And you know, sometimes people have to

0:44:03.640 --> 0:44:07.400
<v Speaker 3>learn a hard, hard lesson that again, that's not investing

0:44:07.480 --> 0:44:11.080
<v Speaker 3>and that's really speculative. And you know it's a lesson

0:44:11.080 --> 0:44:13.360
<v Speaker 3>to learn early on in your career. Huh, when you

0:44:13.400 --> 0:44:15.200
<v Speaker 3>don't have a lot of money, versus later on in

0:44:15.200 --> 0:44:17.680
<v Speaker 3>your career where you start to accumulate some massets, you

0:44:17.719 --> 0:44:19.880
<v Speaker 3>definitely want to be more of an investor versus the speculator.

0:44:19.960 --> 0:44:22.839
<v Speaker 2>Right making mistakes early. You know, there's a chapter in

0:44:23.440 --> 0:44:25.759
<v Speaker 2>I want to say it's Adam Smith's The Money Game

0:44:25.840 --> 0:44:30.320
<v Speaker 2>from the nineteen sixties where he talks about a fund

0:44:30.360 --> 0:44:35.120
<v Speaker 2>manager running a bunch of you know, young run and

0:44:35.200 --> 0:44:38.920
<v Speaker 2>gun managers. Why do you have these young kids working

0:44:38.920 --> 0:44:41.719
<v Speaker 2>for you? Oh, because they'll buy all this stuff that

0:44:41.800 --> 0:44:44.719
<v Speaker 2>I won't buy, and we'll make money in it, and

0:44:44.760 --> 0:44:47.440
<v Speaker 2>when it blows up, I'll sell early and fire them

0:44:47.440 --> 0:44:49.759
<v Speaker 2>all and go on to the next group. I was

0:44:49.840 --> 0:44:54.240
<v Speaker 2>reminded of that last time, but it seems shocking. I guess,

0:44:54.440 --> 0:44:58.600
<v Speaker 2>like the market timing argument, we're still in a debate

0:44:58.680 --> 0:45:04.359
<v Speaker 2>between me stock pickers and indexers. It's fascinating that every

0:45:04.400 --> 0:45:07.719
<v Speaker 2>new generation has to learn the hard lessons over and

0:45:07.760 --> 0:45:08.280
<v Speaker 2>over again.

0:45:08.960 --> 0:45:10.360
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you just have to look at history.

0:45:11.000 --> 0:45:13.200
<v Speaker 3>But you know, some people have to learn the hard way,

0:45:13.320 --> 0:45:16.560
<v Speaker 3>using real money to do that. But eventually most people

0:45:16.560 --> 0:45:20.040
<v Speaker 3>find religion and start thinking about, Hey, how do I

0:45:20.040 --> 0:45:23.400
<v Speaker 3>actually construct a portfolio that's durable that will provide the

0:45:23.400 --> 0:45:26.839
<v Speaker 3>type of economic return that's required to you know, meet

0:45:26.880 --> 0:45:30.240
<v Speaker 3>their retirement needs, college saving needs, or you know, buying

0:45:30.280 --> 0:45:31.719
<v Speaker 3>that new house or whatever the case may be.

0:45:32.400 --> 0:45:35.920
<v Speaker 2>So let's talk about some adult decision making around a

0:45:36.000 --> 0:45:41.600
<v Speaker 2>durable portfolio. Internally, we've been having discussions about extending duration.

0:45:41.760 --> 0:45:44.879
<v Speaker 2>If you tightened up duration in twenty one or even

0:45:44.920 --> 0:45:48.880
<v Speaker 2>twenty two, you did better than the index. At what

0:45:49.000 --> 0:45:52.920
<v Speaker 2>point do you say, hey, I'm not getting paid to

0:45:53.080 --> 0:45:57.439
<v Speaker 2>take risk short term because of the possibility of those

0:45:57.520 --> 0:46:00.839
<v Speaker 2>rates dropping. Whether it's twenty four or twenty five, where

0:46:00.840 --> 0:46:04.160
<v Speaker 2>do you start thinking about going back out on the

0:46:04.239 --> 0:46:06.960
<v Speaker 2>duration curve for fixed income?

0:46:07.360 --> 0:46:09.080
<v Speaker 3>I think you have to get to a place where

0:46:09.120 --> 0:46:12.719
<v Speaker 3>you feel like the FED is done and inflation is

0:46:12.760 --> 0:46:16.040
<v Speaker 3>starting to be you know, you can you're convinced that

0:46:16.480 --> 0:46:18.920
<v Speaker 3>inflation is under control and path towards you know, the

0:46:18.960 --> 0:46:22.000
<v Speaker 3>Fed's two percent target. So we think there's still some

0:46:22.200 --> 0:46:25.440
<v Speaker 3>ways for that to go. And again, you know, if

0:46:25.480 --> 0:46:26.839
<v Speaker 3>you if you go back to what I was saying

0:46:26.880 --> 0:46:30.440
<v Speaker 3>earlier about our star and the neutral FED funds, Right,

0:46:30.480 --> 0:46:32.120
<v Speaker 3>if we believe that's three and a half percent with

0:46:32.200 --> 0:46:33.920
<v Speaker 3>a normal shape y old curve at four and a half,

0:46:34.239 --> 0:46:37.000
<v Speaker 3>we're not far from that, but it's also that's far

0:46:37.040 --> 0:46:38.640
<v Speaker 3>from neutral. Right if we think four and a half

0:46:38.640 --> 0:46:41.560
<v Speaker 3>percent is fair value, like, we're not at fair value yet,

0:46:41.760 --> 0:46:44.120
<v Speaker 3>so that means it also means that, hey, it's not cheap,

0:46:44.480 --> 0:46:47.120
<v Speaker 3>so you don't want to dive in with both feet.

0:46:47.680 --> 0:46:49.480
<v Speaker 3>You know, when you're approaching a fair value, want things

0:46:49.520 --> 0:46:51.640
<v Speaker 3>to actually be cheap before you do that. So you know,

0:46:51.719 --> 0:46:53.959
<v Speaker 3>the risk is that, you know, rates back up more,

0:46:54.920 --> 0:46:56.479
<v Speaker 3>and so I think you still want to be somewhat

0:46:56.480 --> 0:46:58.880
<v Speaker 3>conservative when it comes to duration positioning in a portfolio.

0:46:58.960 --> 0:47:01.960
<v Speaker 2>So I always have a question about that two percent

0:47:03.200 --> 0:47:08.200
<v Speaker 2>UH inflation target. It not to be flippant, but it

0:47:08.280 --> 0:47:12.480
<v Speaker 2>seems like a made up number. I hunted for some

0:47:12.760 --> 0:47:16.400
<v Speaker 2>academic research that said here's why, and I came up

0:47:16.400 --> 0:47:19.600
<v Speaker 2>with something. The former FED Vice chair I wrote a

0:47:19.600 --> 0:47:22.320
<v Speaker 2>paper that said, oh, it's a thing from New Zealand

0:47:22.360 --> 0:47:25.000
<v Speaker 2>in nineteen eighties. It's kind of a made up round number,

0:47:25.080 --> 0:47:28.560
<v Speaker 2>and everybody adopted it. Can it be that simple? We're

0:47:28.640 --> 0:47:31.840
<v Speaker 2>using a FED inflation target that's just a made up number.

0:47:31.920 --> 0:47:33.640
<v Speaker 3>Well, that's that's what the that's what the market is

0:47:33.680 --> 0:47:36.279
<v Speaker 3>gravitating towards. That is what the FED is operating off of.

0:47:36.400 --> 0:47:40.399
<v Speaker 3>And until they decide to communicate a different message, that's

0:47:40.440 --> 0:47:42.239
<v Speaker 3>what the market is going to continue to follow. Right,

0:47:43.200 --> 0:47:46.319
<v Speaker 3>And you know their behavior says that, hey, they want

0:47:46.320 --> 0:47:47.759
<v Speaker 3>to see inflation coming down.

0:47:47.800 --> 0:47:48.840
<v Speaker 1>It's also difficult.

0:47:49.000 --> 0:47:52.759
<v Speaker 3>It's also difficult to be you know, changing, you know,

0:47:52.920 --> 0:47:55.720
<v Speaker 3>changing the strategy when you're falling behind your current strategy.

0:47:55.719 --> 0:47:57.680
<v Speaker 3>Because if you say, hey, I'm going from a two

0:47:57.719 --> 0:48:00.560
<v Speaker 3>percent target to three percent, well you're at three percent

0:48:00.600 --> 0:48:02.919
<v Speaker 3>because you couldn't hit two percent. Well it is three

0:48:02.920 --> 0:48:05.799
<v Speaker 3>percent the right number, and so well.

0:48:05.719 --> 0:48:07.719
<v Speaker 2>If you're going to make up a number, make up

0:48:07.800 --> 0:48:09.799
<v Speaker 2>one you can reach as opposed to one you can.

0:48:09.920 --> 0:48:11.440
<v Speaker 3>But we have to we have to be realistic too,

0:48:11.520 --> 0:48:14.680
<v Speaker 3>right Berry. I mean, the reality is, for ten years,

0:48:14.680 --> 0:48:16.440
<v Speaker 3>we couldn't hit two percent inflation. We were on the

0:48:16.440 --> 0:48:20.160
<v Speaker 3>other side, downside, yea, right, we were underneath that two percent.

0:48:20.200 --> 0:48:22.000
<v Speaker 3>They were working really hard to try to get to

0:48:22.040 --> 0:48:23.359
<v Speaker 3>two percent, and they couldn't achieve it.

0:48:23.480 --> 0:48:27.640
<v Speaker 2>So, in an era of low monetary policy and almost

0:48:27.800 --> 0:48:32.240
<v Speaker 2>non existent fiscal stimulus, upside target of two percent doesn't

0:48:32.239 --> 0:48:34.560
<v Speaker 2>seem to make a lot of sense. Fast forward to

0:48:34.560 --> 0:48:37.040
<v Speaker 2>the twenty twenties. Now we're in an era of massive

0:48:37.040 --> 0:48:40.960
<v Speaker 2>fiscal stimulus, not nearly as much monetary stimulus. Does it

0:48:41.000 --> 0:48:43.480
<v Speaker 2>make sense to have the same target when you're coming

0:48:43.520 --> 0:48:46.040
<v Speaker 2>from five percent above it as opposed to zero percent

0:48:46.560 --> 0:48:46.920
<v Speaker 2>under it.

0:48:46.960 --> 0:48:48.200
<v Speaker 3>Well, the thing is it's supposed to be a long

0:48:48.239 --> 0:48:50.680
<v Speaker 3>term target, and it's supposed to be an average target over time.

0:48:50.880 --> 0:48:53.440
<v Speaker 3>So you know, I haven't heard anything that would say

0:48:53.480 --> 0:48:55.279
<v Speaker 3>that they're in the process of deciding to switch it

0:48:55.320 --> 0:48:57.920
<v Speaker 3>to a higher number. I think that's something to be debated.

0:48:57.960 --> 0:49:01.040
<v Speaker 3>Once you get back to close to your target and

0:49:01.120 --> 0:49:03.480
<v Speaker 3>that gives you greater credibility over time, which you don't

0:49:03.480 --> 0:49:05.160
<v Speaker 3>want to do, is you don't want to change. You

0:49:05.160 --> 0:49:08.040
<v Speaker 3>don't want to change the you know, the the mile

0:49:08.120 --> 0:49:10.640
<v Speaker 3>post while you know the cars, the car still in

0:49:10.719 --> 0:49:13.040
<v Speaker 3>motion and you're running the race. You want to basically say, hey,

0:49:13.400 --> 0:49:16.080
<v Speaker 3>we're anchored to this, we believe in this, and ultimately

0:49:16.080 --> 0:49:18.200
<v Speaker 3>we think this is going to allow us to pursue

0:49:18.200 --> 0:49:20.400
<v Speaker 3>a level of economic growth that continues to give us

0:49:20.400 --> 0:49:24.320
<v Speaker 3>full employment, you know, moderate price increases. Again, it's debatable

0:49:24.320 --> 0:49:26.200
<v Speaker 3>when not two percent is the right number three percent.

0:49:26.280 --> 0:49:28.080
<v Speaker 3>All I would say is that it took us a

0:49:28.200 --> 0:49:29.840
<v Speaker 3>long time to get north of two percent.

0:49:30.160 --> 0:49:31.080
<v Speaker 1>We finally got to.

0:49:31.280 --> 0:49:36.160
<v Speaker 2>Six trillion dollars in physical stimulus. But that raises the question, Hey,

0:49:36.200 --> 0:49:37.920
<v Speaker 2>you know, when it gets icy out, you got to

0:49:37.960 --> 0:49:38.600
<v Speaker 2>slow down.

0:49:38.920 --> 0:49:39.759
<v Speaker 1>You do have to slow down.

0:49:39.760 --> 0:49:41.640
<v Speaker 3>But the reality is, like that stimulus is starting to

0:49:41.640 --> 0:49:43.840
<v Speaker 3>wear off, Like those savings are starting to be consumed.

0:49:43.880 --> 0:49:45.640
<v Speaker 3>You're starting to see you're starting to see the Fed

0:49:45.680 --> 0:49:48.480
<v Speaker 3>reduce its balance sheet slowly, but it's starting to happen.

0:49:48.480 --> 0:49:51.319
<v Speaker 3>And you've seen you've seen the Federal Reserve clearly, you know,

0:49:51.440 --> 0:49:54.000
<v Speaker 3>raise interest rates dramatically five hundred and twenty five basis

0:49:54.000 --> 0:49:57.560
<v Speaker 3>points in fifteen months. That they're they're definitely trying to

0:49:57.600 --> 0:49:59.880
<v Speaker 3>slow the economy down, and so you know, we'll have

0:49:59.920 --> 0:50:04.239
<v Speaker 3>to wait and see if that's enough. But again, we

0:50:04.320 --> 0:50:06.680
<v Speaker 3>have to remember and we can't be blindsided by the

0:50:06.719 --> 0:50:09.759
<v Speaker 3>fact that, you know, inflation has been well above their

0:50:09.760 --> 0:50:12.319
<v Speaker 3>target because of all this stimulus. But this stimulus was

0:50:12.360 --> 0:50:16.600
<v Speaker 3>slowly ebbing out of the system and we're gradually going

0:50:16.640 --> 0:50:18.919
<v Speaker 3>back to We're going in the right direction. The question

0:50:18.920 --> 0:50:20.239
<v Speaker 3>is how long will it take for us to get there?

0:50:20.280 --> 0:50:22.759
<v Speaker 2>Huh? Really interesting. I'm going to throw you a curveball

0:50:23.160 --> 0:50:26.480
<v Speaker 2>question which I did not disclose in advance, as I

0:50:26.560 --> 0:50:31.160
<v Speaker 2>wanted to surprise you. You're born in Germany, raised in

0:50:31.200 --> 0:50:35.080
<v Speaker 2>a military family, and you speak fluent German with your

0:50:35.080 --> 0:50:37.799
<v Speaker 2>mom and English with your dad. Tell us a little

0:50:37.840 --> 0:50:41.680
<v Speaker 2>bit about your experience growing up overseas as a military brat.

0:50:41.920 --> 0:50:44.719
<v Speaker 3>It was a phenomenal, phenomenal experience. I mean, I had

0:50:44.760 --> 0:50:50.680
<v Speaker 3>the privilege of growing up in a bilingual household, and

0:50:50.920 --> 0:50:54.080
<v Speaker 3>my maternal grandmother was also home and she spoke primarily

0:50:54.120 --> 0:50:57.239
<v Speaker 3>primarily German to me. So what was challenging for me

0:50:57.400 --> 0:50:58.920
<v Speaker 3>was like, actually, when we moved to the US when

0:50:58.920 --> 0:51:01.520
<v Speaker 3>I was seven years old, I was always good with math,

0:51:01.920 --> 0:51:03.960
<v Speaker 3>but my English, my English.

0:51:03.760 --> 0:51:05.200
<v Speaker 1>Was below average.

0:51:05.800 --> 0:51:08.520
<v Speaker 3>And what I my wife is an English She taught

0:51:08.520 --> 0:51:13.040
<v Speaker 3>English at the college level. She said, you, you dummy,

0:51:13.280 --> 0:51:15.440
<v Speaker 3>English was a second language for you, because and it

0:51:15.520 --> 0:51:17.279
<v Speaker 3>really was. I didn't know it, even though you know,

0:51:17.320 --> 0:51:19.920
<v Speaker 3>I went to a US Department of Defense school in Germany.

0:51:19.920 --> 0:51:22.920
<v Speaker 3>But my primary language I was spoken by my grandmother

0:51:22.960 --> 0:51:24.760
<v Speaker 3>who I spent most of my time with, was German.

0:51:24.960 --> 0:51:25.120
<v Speaker 2>Huh.

0:51:25.440 --> 0:51:27.439
<v Speaker 1>So you know that.

0:51:27.440 --> 0:51:30.200
<v Speaker 3>Was that was interesting. And I loved the experience of

0:51:30.600 --> 0:51:32.440
<v Speaker 3>living over in Germany. And I had the benefit as

0:51:32.440 --> 0:51:35.200
<v Speaker 3>a kid, you know, during my teenage years going back

0:51:35.200 --> 0:51:37.480
<v Speaker 3>to visit family members and friends over the years going

0:51:37.520 --> 0:51:41.160
<v Speaker 3>back to Germany, which is also a very rewarding and

0:51:41.200 --> 0:51:42.440
<v Speaker 3>memorable part of my childhood.

0:51:42.520 --> 0:51:44.920
<v Speaker 2>Huh. Really interesting. So I only have you for a

0:51:44.920 --> 0:51:47.879
<v Speaker 2>few more minutes. Let's jump to our favorite questions that

0:51:47.920 --> 0:51:50.359
<v Speaker 2>we ask all of our guests that are a little

0:51:50.360 --> 0:51:52.959
<v Speaker 2>bit revealing of who they are. Tell us a little

0:51:52.960 --> 0:51:55.799
<v Speaker 2>bit about what you've been streaming. What's been keeping you

0:51:56.000 --> 0:51:57.040
<v Speaker 2>entertained these days?

0:51:57.239 --> 0:52:00.960
<v Speaker 3>So from a streaming standpoint, there was a series went

0:52:01.000 --> 0:52:02.640
<v Speaker 3>through the first season that ended. They're going to start

0:52:02.640 --> 0:52:05.960
<v Speaker 3>a new one in twenty twenty four. It's called Night Agent, Yeah,

0:52:06.000 --> 0:52:08.279
<v Speaker 3>which was really interesting. There was an FBI agent who

0:52:08.320 --> 0:52:12.840
<v Speaker 3>was manning a telephone in the basement of the White House, right.

0:52:12.960 --> 0:52:13.160
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:52:13.239 --> 0:52:15.239
<v Speaker 3>It was actually a really good series, and the good

0:52:15.280 --> 0:52:16.839
<v Speaker 3>news is it got picked up and I think they're

0:52:16.840 --> 0:52:18.640
<v Speaker 3>coming out with new episodes in twenty twenty four.

0:52:18.680 --> 0:52:21.439
<v Speaker 1>But it was a really, really interesting.

0:52:20.920 --> 0:52:22.600
<v Speaker 2>He kind of gets the crappiat out of him in

0:52:22.600 --> 0:52:23.560
<v Speaker 2>the first episode.

0:52:23.600 --> 0:52:24.120
<v Speaker 1>I saw that.

0:52:24.120 --> 0:52:26.640
<v Speaker 3>It was very fun. It was a really interesting So

0:52:26.760 --> 0:52:30.520
<v Speaker 3>that's one. And then because of my kids also been

0:52:31.120 --> 0:52:34.080
<v Speaker 3>you know, big fans of All American and bel Air,

0:52:35.320 --> 0:52:38.040
<v Speaker 3>which are also really cool series that we've been watching.

0:52:38.120 --> 0:52:39.200
<v Speaker 3>So those were a couple.

0:52:39.640 --> 0:52:41.839
<v Speaker 2>Tell us a little bit about your early mentors who

0:52:41.920 --> 0:52:43.560
<v Speaker 2>helped to shape your career.

0:52:44.000 --> 0:52:46.719
<v Speaker 3>I had a number and I'll go back to the

0:52:46.760 --> 0:52:49.200
<v Speaker 3>first two I had when I started in this industry.

0:52:49.880 --> 0:52:54.200
<v Speaker 3>Darryl Thomas was leading investment grade capital market the City Bank.

0:52:54.239 --> 0:52:56.360
<v Speaker 3>He actually helped me, helped me get my internship. I

0:52:56.360 --> 0:52:58.879
<v Speaker 3>met him at a career fair. He helped me get

0:52:58.880 --> 0:53:01.960
<v Speaker 3>my first internship on Wall Street with somebody I kept

0:53:01.960 --> 0:53:05.239
<v Speaker 3>in contact with over the years and he helped me,

0:53:05.320 --> 0:53:08.160
<v Speaker 3>you know him. And there was another individual, carmin Or Cilio,

0:53:09.200 --> 0:53:11.600
<v Speaker 3>who also worked at City at the time. Those two

0:53:11.600 --> 0:53:13.759
<v Speaker 3>individuals gave me a lot of perspective when I was

0:53:13.800 --> 0:53:16.280
<v Speaker 3>thinking about moving from Wall Street to the by side,

0:53:16.760 --> 0:53:20.120
<v Speaker 3>and thanks to some of the words of wisdom from Carmine,

0:53:20.560 --> 0:53:22.120
<v Speaker 3>you know. He said to me when I was thinking

0:53:22.120 --> 0:53:23.760
<v Speaker 3>about making a change, he said, if you could.

0:53:23.600 --> 0:53:24.719
<v Speaker 1>If you could join.

0:53:26.000 --> 0:53:29.560
<v Speaker 3>A well regarded, well respected asset manager, you're going to

0:53:29.640 --> 0:53:32.120
<v Speaker 3>have a much longer and more fruitful career than if

0:53:32.120 --> 0:53:34.400
<v Speaker 3>you stay on the cell side. And that was advice

0:53:34.440 --> 0:53:37.879
<v Speaker 3>he gave me back in nineteen and ninety nine.

0:53:38.200 --> 0:53:40.080
<v Speaker 2>Good good advice and good time.

0:53:40.520 --> 0:53:43.640
<v Speaker 3>I send Carmine chats every once in you know, every

0:53:43.680 --> 0:53:46.160
<v Speaker 3>once in a few years, saying thank you for the advice,

0:53:46.200 --> 0:53:49.160
<v Speaker 3>and I appreciated it really interesting. And then along the

0:53:49.200 --> 0:53:52.560
<v Speaker 3>way Ken Volpert, who hired me huge Huge Mentor. He

0:53:52.640 --> 0:53:54.640
<v Speaker 3>hired me to trade treasuries and mortgages on the team

0:53:54.760 --> 0:53:58.440
<v Speaker 3>Big Mentor Advocate sponsored friend, and of course Tim Buckley

0:53:58.480 --> 0:54:00.000
<v Speaker 3>who put me, who gave me the opportunity to go

0:54:00.040 --> 0:54:03.200
<v Speaker 3>to Australia and then ultimately the Fixed Income Group and

0:54:03.200 --> 0:54:04.640
<v Speaker 3>then put me in the seat that I'm in today.

0:54:04.840 --> 0:54:07.080
<v Speaker 3>I've only had two bosses at Vanguard in twenty four

0:54:07.160 --> 0:54:08.920
<v Speaker 3>years and they've both been phenomenal.

0:54:09.040 --> 0:54:12.359
<v Speaker 2>Wow, really really interesting. Let's talk about books. What are

0:54:12.400 --> 0:54:14.440
<v Speaker 2>some of your favorites and what are you reading right now?

0:54:14.800 --> 0:54:19.120
<v Speaker 1>Right now, I'm reading Plunder by Brendan Below.

0:54:19.160 --> 0:54:21.720
<v Speaker 3>It talks about the private equity, the private equity world.

0:54:21.719 --> 0:54:24.160
<v Speaker 3>I have a daughter who wants to do private equity investing,

0:54:24.200 --> 0:54:30.040
<v Speaker 3>so I'm doing some some due diligence and the book

0:54:30.080 --> 0:54:32.319
<v Speaker 3>is actually an interesting read, but it talks a bit

0:54:32.320 --> 0:54:34.640
<v Speaker 3>about the dark side of private equity with it versus

0:54:34.680 --> 0:54:36.520
<v Speaker 3>some of the favorable things that come out of that

0:54:36.560 --> 0:54:38.960
<v Speaker 3>space as well. And then there was another book that

0:54:39.000 --> 0:54:42.200
<v Speaker 3>I read, you know previously, that I thought was really interesting.

0:54:42.760 --> 0:54:45.080
<v Speaker 3>It's non market related, but it talks a lot about

0:54:45.160 --> 0:54:47.520
<v Speaker 3>history in the US. It's called From Here to Equality

0:54:48.160 --> 0:54:51.720
<v Speaker 3>by William Darty. And Kirsten Mullen, and it really examines

0:54:51.760 --> 0:54:54.280
<v Speaker 3>a lot of American history that isn't covered in in

0:54:54.280 --> 0:54:56.520
<v Speaker 3>in school. You know, it's a deep look at some

0:54:56.600 --> 0:54:58.760
<v Speaker 3>of the you know, really pivotal points in the nation's

0:54:58.800 --> 0:55:02.120
<v Speaker 3>history that you know, where we had a number of

0:55:02.160 --> 0:55:04.840
<v Speaker 3>opportunities to create a more equal in just society, where

0:55:05.000 --> 0:55:09.000
<v Speaker 3>we chose to go left instead of right, and you know,

0:55:09.040 --> 0:55:11.840
<v Speaker 3>we're still dealing with some of those ramifications in today's

0:55:11.840 --> 0:55:13.439
<v Speaker 3>modern age. So I thought it was a really really

0:55:13.440 --> 0:55:14.799
<v Speaker 3>interesting book about American history.

0:55:15.000 --> 0:55:18.919
<v Speaker 2>Huh, really interesting. What sort of advice would you give

0:55:18.920 --> 0:55:22.280
<v Speaker 2>a recent college grad who was interested in a career

0:55:22.520 --> 0:55:25.920
<v Speaker 2>in either asset management or finance.

0:55:26.680 --> 0:55:28.840
<v Speaker 1>I would say a couple of things. One is, be

0:55:28.920 --> 0:55:31.400
<v Speaker 1>a continual learner. Master your craft.

0:55:31.400 --> 0:55:33.239
<v Speaker 3>So spend the time and energy and the effort to

0:55:33.800 --> 0:55:37.839
<v Speaker 3>learn and become an expert. And you know, the key

0:55:37.880 --> 0:55:41.480
<v Speaker 3>thing is, you know, continuous learning, and there's opportunities to

0:55:41.560 --> 0:55:44.319
<v Speaker 3>learn from everybody that you interact from and interact with.

0:55:44.440 --> 0:55:47.440
<v Speaker 3>And so the other thing I would say is, you know,

0:55:47.480 --> 0:55:49.600
<v Speaker 3>for young people, you have to remember a career as

0:55:49.600 --> 0:55:52.160
<v Speaker 3>a marathon and not a sprint. The problem that people

0:55:52.160 --> 0:55:55.080
<v Speaker 3>face is that they're constantly comparing themselves with somebody else

0:55:55.080 --> 0:55:56.839
<v Speaker 3>who started at the same time, or one of their

0:55:56.880 --> 0:55:59.360
<v Speaker 3>peers who is working at a different firm. And what

0:55:59.360 --> 0:56:01.560
<v Speaker 3>I always say to the younger joiners to our firm

0:56:01.600 --> 0:56:04.080
<v Speaker 3>is run your own race. Judge your success by how

0:56:04.120 --> 0:56:05.680
<v Speaker 3>you're doing. Are you getting better than where you were

0:56:05.719 --> 0:56:07.600
<v Speaker 3>a year before, are you continuing to learn?

0:56:07.640 --> 0:56:08.680
<v Speaker 1>Are you being developed?

0:56:09.160 --> 0:56:12.000
<v Speaker 3>And if you focus on yourself about getting better every day,

0:56:12.000 --> 0:56:13.759
<v Speaker 3>you're going to have a much more fruitful and long

0:56:13.800 --> 0:56:17.279
<v Speaker 3>living career than somebody who's constantly comparing themselves to somebody else.

0:56:17.520 --> 0:56:21.279
<v Speaker 2>Huh. Really good advice. And our final question, what do

0:56:21.320 --> 0:56:23.799
<v Speaker 2>you know about the world of investing today? You wish

0:56:23.880 --> 0:56:27.200
<v Speaker 2>you knew thirty or so years ago when you were

0:56:27.239 --> 0:56:28.680
<v Speaker 2>really first getting started.

0:56:28.880 --> 0:56:31.360
<v Speaker 3>I would say, the power of compounding is such a

0:56:31.360 --> 0:56:33.720
<v Speaker 3>beautiful thing. I just thought wish i'd learn that lesson

0:56:33.760 --> 0:56:36.720
<v Speaker 3>earlier on. And you know what we were speaking about before,

0:56:36.800 --> 0:56:40.239
<v Speaker 3>the idea of investing versus speculating as a youngster. You know,

0:56:40.280 --> 0:56:44.000
<v Speaker 3>it's always it's always interesting to you know, you think

0:56:44.000 --> 0:56:46.480
<v Speaker 3>about an industry or a company and you're like, oh,

0:56:46.520 --> 0:56:49.040
<v Speaker 3>it'd be a great investment, But what you what you're

0:56:49.080 --> 0:56:51.440
<v Speaker 3>doing is speculating, and you should be investing and let

0:56:51.440 --> 0:56:54.680
<v Speaker 3>that investment compound over thirty forty fifty years, and you

0:56:54.680 --> 0:56:56.799
<v Speaker 3>can see that even small amounts of money will grow

0:56:56.800 --> 0:56:58.480
<v Speaker 3>into a rather large sum if you do it on

0:56:58.480 --> 0:57:01.080
<v Speaker 3>a consistent basis. So I wish I'll learn those lessons

0:57:01.080 --> 0:57:02.800
<v Speaker 3>earlier and early in my lifetime.

0:57:02.960 --> 0:57:06.760
<v Speaker 2>Huh, really great stuff. We have been speaking with Greg Davis.

0:57:07.040 --> 0:57:10.760
<v Speaker 2>He is the chief investment officer at the Vanguard Group.

0:57:11.280 --> 0:57:14.239
<v Speaker 2>If you enjoy this conversation, please check out any of

0:57:14.280 --> 0:57:17.520
<v Speaker 2>the five hundred previous interviews we've done over the past

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<v Speaker 2>eight years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, YouTube,

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<v Speaker 2>wherever you find your favorite podcasts. Sign up for my

0:57:26.160 --> 0:57:29.000
<v Speaker 2>daily reading list at rid Halts dot com. Follow me

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<v Speaker 2>on Twitter at Barry Underscore rit Halts until I get

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<v Speaker 2>back my hacked Twitter account at rit Holts. Follow all

0:57:37.360 --> 0:57:41.000
<v Speaker 2>of the Bloomberg Family of podcasts on Twitter at podcast

0:57:41.520 --> 0:57:43.520
<v Speaker 2>I would be remiss if I did not thank the

0:57:43.560 --> 0:57:47.240
<v Speaker 2>Crack team who helps put these conversations together each week.

0:57:47.560 --> 0:57:52.880
<v Speaker 2>Paris Wald is my producer, Attika Valbrun is my project manager.

0:57:53.280 --> 0:57:57.440
<v Speaker 2>Justin Milner is my audio engineer. Joan Russo is my researcher.

0:57:58.120 --> 0:58:02.360
<v Speaker 2>I'm Barry Ridholts. Been listening to Masters in Business on

0:58:02.440 --> 0:58:03.400
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Radio