Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York Bloomberg eleven, Rio to Washington,
Speaker 1: d C, Bloomber to Boston, Bloomberg Well Under to San Francisco,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg to the Country is at Damn General one nineteen
Speaker 1: and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus athen Bloomberg
Speaker 1: dot com. This is taking Stock. I'm Kathleen Hayes along
Speaker 1: with pim Fox. Two days to the big Brexit vote.
Speaker 1: Will the United Kingdom vote to leave the European Union?
Speaker 1: The polls suggests that the vote will be heading towards
Speaker 1: remain stay in the EU. Nevertheless, markets and central banks
Speaker 1: around the world remain on high alert. PIM and We're
Speaker 1: gonna go to look now not just at what the
Speaker 1: vote means on Friday, but but the longer term consequences
Speaker 1: will be Yes, We've got Alberto Galla, portfolio manager ahead
Speaker 1: of macro strategies at Algebra Investments. Right now, let's go
Speaker 1: to Charlie Pellet and the Bloomberg news room for a
Speaker 1: Bloomberg business flash. I thank you him, Thank you Kathleen.
Speaker 1: Stocks fluctuating right now the now. The SMP nez dank
Speaker 1: all advancing. We do have the SMP five hundred Index
Speaker 1: up seven points to two thousand ninety, a gain of
Speaker 1: four tenths of one percent. Town Industrials up forty five,
Speaker 1: a gain of three tenths of one percent, as stack
Speaker 1: up three points to gain of point one percent. FED
Speaker 1: Chair Janet Yellen today signaling more caution on the economic
Speaker 1: outlook for comments coming in testimony that we carried live
Speaker 1: right here on Bloomberg Radio. Equities of zig zagged as
Speaker 1: energy producers rose for a third session, the longest in
Speaker 1: two months, even as crude prices dropped. West Texas Intermediate
Speaker 1: Crew down now by fifty two cents and Barrel a
Speaker 1: drop there of one percent. Apple shares their climbing by
Speaker 1: one percent, leading tech shares higher. Now, what about the
Speaker 1: big picture in terms of the economy. Peter Orzag is
Speaker 1: managing director at Lazard and former direct sure of the
Speaker 1: Office of Management and Budget. He's also a Bloomberg View columnist. Well,
Speaker 1: here's the thing. The economy is kind of math to
Speaker 1: use a technical term. It's not great, it's not terrible.
Speaker 1: And the problem is with growth rates that are you know,
Speaker 1: one and a half to two percent. Uh, you can
Speaker 1: have really bad offensibly really bad numbers that are close
Speaker 1: to zero, much more likely than if we were growing
Speaker 1: at three, when a bad number would then be, you know,
Speaker 1: a one and a half percent rate. So one of
Speaker 1: the dimensions here is that we're kind of skirting effectively.
Speaker 1: The plane is just barely flying, and that's a dangerous situation.
Speaker 1: And to thirty two on Wall Street. Now, let's take
Speaker 1: a look at other news from around the world on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Thank you Charlie from the Bloomberg News Room.
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Speaker 1: Willoby's corner of Fifth Avenue and thirty first Street. Hillary
Speaker 1: Clinton's campaign is attacking Donald Trump's economic strategy. In a
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Speaker 1: only put our country in more debt. According to the
Speaker 1: Independent Tax Policy Center, it would increase the national debt
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Speaker 1: past year. The White House is slamming the Senate for
Speaker 1: rejecting a series of gun control measures in the wake
Speaker 1: over the Orlando mass shooting. Press Secretary Josh Ernest as
Speaker 1: lawmakers are all talk when it comes to keeping a
Speaker 1: gun out of the hands of suspected terrorists. Continue to
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Speaker 1: having ties with terrorism to be able to walk into
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Speaker 1: has led to the discovery of a massive counterfeit designer
Speaker 1: goods operation on Long Island. Newsday reports Nassau police found
Speaker 1: three thousand boxes stuffed with clothes and merchandise at a
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Speaker 1: and Asensio. This is Bloomberg, Charlie and again recapping stocks
Speaker 1: higher smp ops seven now to two thousand ninety, a
Speaker 1: gain of four tenths of one percent. I'm Charlie Peloton.
Speaker 1: That's of Bloomberg Business Flash. This is Taking Stock with
Speaker 1: Kathleen Hayes and Pim Fox on Bloomberg Radio. Two days
Speaker 1: to go until the United Kingdom votes on whether or
Speaker 1: not to stay or go, whether or not to leave
Speaker 1: the European Union. This is the famous Brexit vote. In fact,
Speaker 1: today the polls getting very close again between the remains
Speaker 1: and the Brexits. Those in the latest i G Servation
Speaker 1: poll in the UK put the remain vote at and
Speaker 1: leave with forty four percent. The last few days the
Speaker 1: polls had swung more in the direction of Remain. We
Speaker 1: are now going to take an in depth look at
Speaker 1: where this vote is, where it's heading, and what it
Speaker 1: means for the UK, for the European Union and the
Speaker 1: markets with our Alberto Gallo, not only author of the
Speaker 1: Silver Bullet, a great read on the markets around the world,
Speaker 1: he is portfolio manager and head of macro Strategies at
Speaker 1: Algebra's Investments. Alberto, welcome and congratulations on your new role.
Speaker 1: Thanks to me Hi so we're all watching the polls
Speaker 1: uh and you know, the base case we have is
Speaker 1: that there's gonna be a small victory for main but
Speaker 1: obviously the swings can be the last minute wings can
Speaker 1: be very large, as we have learned from past referendums
Speaker 1: here in the UK, So belt is there a macro
Speaker 1: credit trade to be put on in anticipation of what
Speaker 1: you describe. Look, the most people have gone on the sideline,
Speaker 1: so there's a lot of cash and portfolios. So if
Speaker 1: there is a remain obviously you're going to have a
Speaker 1: rally in stocks, and you're probably gonna have a bit
Speaker 1: more rally and sterling towards one and a half one
Speaker 1: point five versus the dollar. But we also want to
Speaker 1: have some hedges because even though it's a low probability,
Speaker 1: you know, less than fifty percent, it's still very possible
Speaker 1: that you have a leave vote and that could unleash
Speaker 1: a series of political consequences. It would it would make
Speaker 1: for periphery risks come back. So Greece Portugal, you know,
Speaker 1: look relatively weak fundamentally, and also especially in case of
Speaker 1: Brexit and and on, these government balls would would go
Speaker 1: up and yield by at least one percent. UH in case,
Speaker 1: but if not more so, we're you know, we're cautiously
Speaker 1: optimistic here, but we're still keeping some hedges, particularly Greece
Speaker 1: and Portual in particular, looks like the weak link in
Speaker 1: the thirty three. It's kept in the ECB Quantity Division
Speaker 1: program only by one rating agency. Well, of course, I
Speaker 1: think that the broader fear for central banks, and of
Speaker 1: course the European Central Bank has made it clear that
Speaker 1: it's ready to take steps, and in fact there's the
Speaker 1: six currency swap arrangement is in play apparently, so there
Speaker 1: could be big steps to support the pound if the
Speaker 1: vote is to leave and the pound gets hammered. Uh,
Speaker 1: you call the relationship between you can eat you a
Speaker 1: troubled love story. You note that the UK has already
Speaker 1: had but four opt outs if they go Alberto. This
Speaker 1: is not just they leave tomorrow. This takes a while.
Speaker 1: What does that mean for financial markets? If if Britain votes,
Speaker 1: if there's a two year period of complete uncertainty, during
Speaker 1: which there would be negotiations around the exit, which needs
Speaker 1: to be voted by EU member countries. During this period, Also,
Speaker 1: the UK will have to negotiate freight agreements with over
Speaker 1: a hundred countries on its own. Uh and UM, you
Speaker 1: have really two scenarios here, a good friendly exit where
Speaker 1: the UK would be allowed and on some leeway by
Speaker 1: the EU, but also bad exit where Germany could and
Speaker 1: France could toughen the rules also withdraw some banks from
Speaker 1: London that d c B could not allow clearing of
Speaker 1: euro government bonds in London for example, in some other restrictions,
Speaker 1: and all of this could mean a big loss for
Speaker 1: the UK economy. This is the most likely scenario if
Speaker 1: Leave gets voted, that you have a slow downing growth.
Speaker 1: I also have to say all these all this comes
Speaker 1: into a situation where the UK recovery is already is
Speaker 1: already slowing down. There's been a lot of spending in
Speaker 1: the first years of the of the Commeron Osborne government.
Speaker 1: But after election, Uh, there needs to be in after
Speaker 1: fifteen we're looking at austerity. We're looking at cuts and spending.
Speaker 1: We're looking at higher taxes and slow down in housing prices.
Speaker 1: So the UK has a twin deficit, very high deficit.
Speaker 1: It relies on capital coming to the UK is a
Speaker 1: safe and the more entertainly you introduced, the more votes,
Speaker 1: the more uncertain situation is. The less capital is going
Speaker 1: to come here and and and this is going to
Speaker 1: really affect the UK economy negatively. So you know, a
Speaker 1: live vote is really bad. Even without a lead vote,
Speaker 1: wild remain stilled, recovery is going to be weak. Albert Ill,
Speaker 1: just give you about thirty seconds here morning, if you
Speaker 1: could tell us sovereign credits, government bonds around the world
Speaker 1: that you favor for investors. Okay, I think that, um,
Speaker 1: we're gonna be in a in a que infinity low
Speaker 1: yield environment for a long time. You know, treasury is
Speaker 1: will go lower, inflation is nor where it should be.
Speaker 1: I think Greece is on a past recovery. It's going
Speaker 1: to be volatile during the vote here in the UK
Speaker 1: as as a sort of proxy rich country, but I
Speaker 1: think Greece is recovering, and Spain as well. It has
Speaker 1: elections next weekend, but I think it's gonna be a
Speaker 1: better vote and they will be able to form a government.
Speaker 1: Thank you very much for spending time with us. Alberto Gallop,
Speaker 1: his portfolio manager and head of a macro Strategies at
Speaker 1: Algebra's Investments, based in London, speaking about the Brexit vote,
Speaker 1: which takes place this Thursday, June the twenty three, we'll
Speaker 1: find out whether the United Kingdom will remain united with
Speaker 1: Europe or whether it will vote to leave. You're listening
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