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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read a lot. They're all for running a gay so

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Speaker 1: smoothe so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 2: Sisting just glorious execution.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

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Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that shop with mind bog buddy, And

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Speaker 3: that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 2: Shut up, I'm trying the one.

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Speaker 1: It's left to one, the wide eyed drill pibus How

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Speaker 1: Old Earth pickup happens?

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Speaker 2: Hello everybody, and welcome back to a wonderful the Soccer

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Speaker 2: Betting podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael

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Speaker 2: lebuff and joining me for season two of our beloved

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Speaker 2: podcasts are my friends and colleagues Anthony de Bundo and

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Speaker 2: BJ Cunningham and gentlemen. The Premier League starts a week

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Speaker 2: from Friday, that's August fifth, with Arsenal and Crystal Palace

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Speaker 2: three pm kickoff here in the States in the Eastern

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Speaker 2: time zone. But before we do that, before we get

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Speaker 2: to that, we have a boatload of preview content. This

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Speaker 2: is your mega preview, your English Premier League Mega Betting

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Speaker 2: Preview that on Monday we did a Premier League Points

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Speaker 2: Total Draft episode with Alain Shapiro of the fml FPL podcast.

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Speaker 2: Tuesday YouTube gentlemen will have a preview podcast the betting

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Speaker 2: Preview for the other European leagues, and then Thursday back

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Speaker 2: in our regular Rhythm Week one betting preview, looking at

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Speaker 2: all ten Premier League games from Matt tweek one, doing

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Speaker 2: our little jaunt around Europe, giving out our best bets,

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Speaker 2: our favorite underdogs. You know the drop by now, so

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Speaker 2: let's just jump right to it. Before I bring these

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Speaker 2: two gentlemen in, let's just run through the odds for

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Speaker 2: the twenty twenty two twenty twenty three Premier League season.

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Speaker 2: These are to win odds, Man City odds on favorite

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Speaker 2: once again minus one sixty five Liverpool's second choice plus

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Speaker 2: two fifty Spurs they've shortened all the way to twelve

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Speaker 2: to one, Chelsea sixteen to one, Man United twenty eight

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Speaker 2: to one, Arsenal thirty five to one. Those are your

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Speaker 2: big six and then we jump right into triple digits,

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Speaker 2: starting with Newcastle at one hundred to one, lester Villa

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Speaker 2: west Ham two hundred to one, each Everton two fifty

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Speaker 2: to one, also Brighton two fifty to one, and then

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Speaker 2: we're getting real dp per Palace, Brentford, Nottingham, Forest, Leeds, Southampton,

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Speaker 2: Wolves all five hundred to one. Fulham and Bournemouth they're

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Speaker 2: both one thousand to one. And we always run into

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Speaker 2: this problem with the Premier League, right because we know

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Speaker 2: we know how these title races go. So the title

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Speaker 2: market usually isn't the most exhilarating bet to me, right,

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Speaker 2: are you gonna lay minus one sixty five with Man City?

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Speaker 2: Are you gonna play plus two to fifty on Liverpool?

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Speaker 2: You know, Spurs Chelsea twelve to one, sixteen to one.

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Speaker 2: Other than that, like, it's just unrealistic too, imagine another

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Speaker 2: team gate crashing. Of course, this is the league that

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Speaker 2: famously had a five thousand to one winner just a

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Speaker 2: couple of years ago, about five years ago. So Anthony,

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Speaker 2: I'll start with you. Just looking at the title odds,

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Speaker 2: all three of us are pretty much in agreement's there's

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Speaker 2: not much to play here. But what sticks out to you?

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Speaker 3: I think it has to be the love for Spurs

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Speaker 3: in the market. You know, Spurs have gotten so much

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Speaker 3: credit and you know they've had a good summer. I

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Speaker 3: don't think they've had a splash wow kind of summer

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Speaker 3: where you're like, wow, Spurs are going to really take

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Speaker 3: a huge step forward this year. But it also should

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Speaker 3: be noted that Spurs in the second half of last

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Speaker 3: season weren't that far behind the level of City and Liverpool.

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Speaker 3: They played not to their level, but close enough to

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Speaker 3: the point where you could say, Okay, maybe there's a

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Speaker 3: chance that they were to, you know, things were to

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Speaker 3: really break right. But I really don't see Spurs breaking

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Speaker 3: into that top two particularly well. I think the biggest

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Speaker 3: thing you can make is one you can't lay money

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Speaker 3: minus one sixty the entire season on a title future.

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Speaker 3: That's just not a good use of your money. You know,

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Speaker 3: put it in the stock market, do something else with

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Speaker 3: it because or maybe don't, but but you know, there's

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Speaker 3: better ways to tie up all your money than laying

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Speaker 3: minus one sixty on a Premier League title future. But

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Speaker 3: I do think you can make the case that City

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Speaker 3: and Liverpool aren't that different. I think, based on last

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Speaker 3: season alone, you could say Liverpool expect a goals difference.

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Speaker 3: We watched them play three times last season. In all

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Speaker 3: three of those games were extremely highly competitive two draws,

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Speaker 3: and then Liverpool win in the FA Cup, so we

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Speaker 3: can say, hey, you know we're gonna see them play

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Speaker 3: next week. I don't think it's the gonna learn a

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Speaker 3: ton from that match. But if Holland gets hurt a

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Speaker 3: couple of times and he misses ten fifteen games and

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Speaker 3: City does slip up here and there, I don't think

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Speaker 3: it would take too much for Liverpool to win the league.

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Speaker 3: So I think that's the only bet I would make.

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Speaker 3: I don't think the number is good enough for me

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Speaker 3: to play. It's not good enough. But I think you

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Speaker 3: can make a case for Liverpool being just as good

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Speaker 3: or very close to his the city and then putting

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Speaker 3: a bet on them, but not not quite for me.

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Speaker 2: I think you said it. The love for Tottenham is

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Speaker 2: the story. If you look at the kind of big

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Speaker 2: picture betting board, twelve to one, and it was fourteen

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Speaker 2: to one just a couple of days ago, twenty eight

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Speaker 2: to one, basically pre transfer market stuff. So the number

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Speaker 2: just keeps crashing. I actually think that the gap between

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Speaker 2: Tottenham City and the Tottenham and then City in Liverpool

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Speaker 2: is pretty small relative to what we've usually seen. I

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Speaker 2: have a different bet we'll get to later with Spurs

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Speaker 2: that I like, rather than playing twelve. I think twelve

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Speaker 2: to one is just way, way too short unless you're

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Speaker 2: a Spurs fan and you just want to have a

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Speaker 2: little skin in the game. By all means, go for it,

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Speaker 2: because they should be the third best team and if

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Speaker 2: you know, one of these guys fall off, who knows

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Speaker 2: stores open.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you can make a case maybe like

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Speaker 3: a top a Christmas type bet, you know, even in

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Speaker 3: the Marinho season when they weren't that good, because Cana

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Speaker 3: and Sown are the you know, very prolific finishers and

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Speaker 3: Laris has traditionally been a great shot stopper. There's a

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Speaker 3: world where they run really well and they get to

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Speaker 3: that level that City and Liverpool are at City and

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Speaker 3: Liverpool both breaking in new strikers this season. Could be

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Speaker 3: a little bit of continuity there issue there early in

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Speaker 3: the season World Cup as well, so you can make

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Speaker 3: the case that they're in the mix, But I don't

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Speaker 3: ultimately see them holding for thirty eight matches.

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Speaker 2: Right, all right, BJ, what about you just kind of

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Speaker 2: a thirty thousand foot view of the betting board, the

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Speaker 2: title race as we get going here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean It's like for City Liverpool. He's pretty

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Speaker 1: much the exact same uns last year. So if you

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Speaker 1: really felt strongly about one of the two last year,

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Speaker 1: then you might as well go. I mean I would

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Speaker 1: like anthey say, I would never let in minus one

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Speaker 1: sixty with Manchester City. I do think there might be

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Speaker 1: an opportunity, kind of going off of your Tottenham topic

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Speaker 1: Christmas type out where if you wade throughout the season

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Speaker 1: you might be able to get a better number on

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Speaker 1: City or Liverpool. You know, we've seen it two years

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Speaker 1: ago at Christmas Manchester City was eighth and I went

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Speaker 1: on this crazy run and they won the league by

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Speaker 1: seventeen points I believe it was or fifteen points. So

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Speaker 1: these teams like Liverpool City can just pull off these

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Speaker 1: crazy type runs where I don't think Chelsea or Todden

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Speaker 1: them Arsenal and Manchester citing Mitch United, are really capable

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Speaker 1: of doing that at this point. I mean, you said

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Speaker 1: they're in the class of their own right now. The

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Speaker 1: Chelsea line is kind of interesting to me. All get

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Speaker 1: to Chelsea in a second, but if that floats to

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Speaker 1: twenty to one, I might have to play Chelsea. I

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Speaker 1: understand they looked bad in preseason. They overperformed last year.

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Speaker 1: They're a lot went wrong for them last year. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they did overperform, but then they had they had to

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Speaker 1: change owners, they had injuries, they had Lukaka situation. That

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Speaker 1: just a whole bunch of things happened. And guess what,

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Speaker 1: they still finished third. They still finished with the third

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Speaker 1: best expected gold differential. And now they just added one

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Speaker 1: of the most underrated center backs in the entire world

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Speaker 1: in Kubali from Napoli. So I don't hate Chelsea. If

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Speaker 1: they flowed to twenty to one, I don't. I highly

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Speaker 1: doubt you're gonna get that price on them.

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Speaker 2: You'll get it after they to Everton, right exactly.

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Speaker 1: Match week one. You might get after that. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: and also I mean in terms of a long shot,

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Speaker 1: I view a long shot as anything twenty five to

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Speaker 1: one or greater. I'd say Arsenal, of all the long shots,

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Speaker 1: has the best shot of any of them. Yeah, with

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Speaker 1: the transfer activity they've made, they should not be priced

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Speaker 1: below United. That's just crazy. I don't understand that at all.

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Speaker 1: So if you wanted to play a long shot, I

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Speaker 1: would say Arsenal is like legitimately the only team that

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Speaker 1: has a chance to actually win the league. But City

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Speaker 1: and Liverpool are in a class their own. You might

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Speaker 1: if there's just a situation, then this is probably gonna,

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Speaker 1: probably not gonna happen. But if a team other than

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Speaker 1: Liverpool or City about two months of the season is

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Speaker 1: at the top of the table and those two have

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Speaker 1: kind of struggled a little bit, I mean, obviously, you know,

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Speaker 1: injuries play a factor into this, but you might get

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Speaker 1: a good number on them because these teams aren't capable

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Speaker 1: of just ripping off ten eleven wins in a row.

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Speaker 1: So we'll get into a lot of things later on

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Speaker 1: in the show, but with the Jampeck schedule in the

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Speaker 1: World Cup and everything like that, But yeah, the title

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Speaker 1: futures really have no interest for me.

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Speaker 2: This year, all right, So then let's move on to

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Speaker 2: top four odds once they're correlated obviously the title futures, right,

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Speaker 2: So it's tough to squeeze value out of here. There's

189
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Speaker 2: one team that I think is interesting as a long shot,

190
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Speaker 2: and that would be Crystal Palace just because we saw

191
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Speaker 2: them last year. We fell in love with this team

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Speaker 2: last year. Are they going to finish in the top four?

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Speaker 2: Almost certainly not. But they're thirty five to one to

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Speaker 2: finish top four. I think you can obviously then go

195
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Speaker 2: top six or top half and you'll just find value.

196
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Speaker 2: I think on Palace in basically any future market, top

197
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Speaker 2: four is definitely asking too much. But I just think

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Speaker 2: that after City, Spurs and Liverpool, I can see the

199
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Speaker 2: door kind of opening because there's just a lot of

200
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Speaker 2: question marks around Chelsea. You talked about it, BJA, with

201
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Speaker 2: all the off field stuff last year, there could just

202
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Speaker 2: be a lot of chaos and Thomas Touple is the

203
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Speaker 2: type of guy who just wants to be able to

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Speaker 2: control everything. If that goes south and Tuko falls out

205
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Speaker 2: of favor with the new ownership group, things get off

206
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Speaker 2: to a slow start for Chelsea. I could just see

207
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Speaker 2: that season going paywire. Obviously, we know United and Arsenal

208
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Speaker 2: both have some serious blow up potential, and then I

209
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Speaker 2: don't view Palace as I kind of view them in

210
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Speaker 2: that next tier. I think Newcastle and Villa are better

211
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Speaker 2: than then west Ham are better than them, but they're

212
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Speaker 2: not that far off. So I just think that there's

213
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Speaker 2: a path for Palace to go up the table, whether

214
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Speaker 2: it be we saw like Wolves and Burnley qualify for

215
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Speaker 2: Europe over the past few years, right, Like, we'll see

216
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Speaker 2: that happen in this league. So I just think that

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Speaker 2: there's kind of a ramp for Palace. Top four is

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Speaker 2: probably asking too much, but in terms of the rest

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Speaker 2: of the odds, like, I don't see another number here

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Speaker 2: that is even close to appealing for me, So I'll

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Speaker 2: stick with the Eagles as my favorite play there. What

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Speaker 2: about you, b J.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So I do actually like Chelsea minus one thirty

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Speaker 1: five for top four. So generally the top four is

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Speaker 1: basically just for the big six. So going back all

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Speaker 1: the way twenty years in the past, only three times

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Speaker 1: I have a team outside of the top six six

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Speaker 1: crash the top four. Newcastle two thousand and two thousand

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Speaker 1: and three, your Everton Toffees two thousand and four, two

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Speaker 1: thousand and five, they had a minus one gold differential

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Speaker 1: that year. I found that kind of interesting.

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Speaker 2: That's David moise Ball, baby.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the David moise Ball and then obviously Lester when

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Speaker 1: they won the title in twenty fifteen sixteen. So it's

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Speaker 1: kind I mean, you can say it's a fools Aaron

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Speaker 1: to bet long shots for top four. I agree with you,

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Speaker 1: Michael that there definitely is some value on some teams

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Speaker 1: like Crystal Palace and Brentford for top four. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we'll talk about him later. I have more in betting them,

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Speaker 1: you know, in better markets, like a top ten. But

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Speaker 1: Chelsea's interesting because I think the moves they made this

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Speaker 1: offseason are fantastic. Radheem Sterling kind of went under the

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Speaker 1: radar as a signing he was. He's still really really

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Speaker 1: good for City last year point sixty seven x g

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Speaker 1: per ninety scoring rate that was good for about fifth

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Speaker 1: or sixth in the Premier League. So you add him

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Speaker 1: along Kai Evertz and a bunch of other attackers that

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Speaker 1: Chelsea has, and then shuring themselves up in defense with Kubale,

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Speaker 1: it looks like, you know, they missed out on Koonde

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Speaker 1: who into Barcelona, but they're still going to be in

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Speaker 1: the market for another center back. So I do believe

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Speaker 1: that Chelsea. I have Todd him and Chelsea projected right

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Speaker 1: on with each other about seventy nine points, and then

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Speaker 1: there's about a fourteen point drop off to Arsenal at

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Speaker 1: sixty five. So you know, five point thirty eight has

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Speaker 1: Chelsea I believe at minus one fifty for top four.

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Speaker 1: So I do think you're getting a decent amount of

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Speaker 1: value on the Blues, who I view as pretty much

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Speaker 1: the third or fourth best team in the Premier League

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Speaker 1: by a pretty wide margin. So Chelsea top four minus

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Speaker 1: one thirty five is the most realistic bet that I

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Speaker 1: believe still has some value on board.

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Speaker 2: You know, I was just talking about the blow up

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Speaker 2: potential with Chelsea because I do think it's there. But

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Speaker 2: they also obviously have a very very high ceiling and

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Speaker 2: we see this usually every season, where it was Liverpool

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Speaker 2: last year, where everyone kind of just like step off

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Speaker 2: a team that they'll expect them to take a step backwards.

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Speaker 2: The team kind of becomes maybe a little boring to

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Speaker 2: talk about. I think Chelsea is that team this year

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Speaker 2: where they're just going to fly completely under the radar.

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Speaker 2: Spurs is sucking up all that oxygen, and then obviously

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Speaker 2: the City Liverpool thing is just being expected. So Chelsea

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Speaker 2: I think does have some under the radar potential. I

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Speaker 2: just don't think the number is there that, like you

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Speaker 2: were saying before, like can we get a twenty on

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Speaker 2: Chelsea maybe in a couple of weeks, you know, if

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Speaker 2: things kind of like hold hold, if everyone kind of

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Speaker 2: holds serve at the top. But yeah, they're just an

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Speaker 2: interesting team in that regard because I think a team

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Speaker 2: like Chelsea you just never expect them to fly under

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Speaker 2: the radar, but they kind of are right now just

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Speaker 2: because of you know, the other teams that are in

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Speaker 2: the room. Anthony, what about you for top four?

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Speaker 3: I think I agree on Chelsea being a little bit

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Speaker 3: overlooked generally speaking. You know, people aren't really lumping them

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Speaker 3: in with the top two because they aren't in my opinion,

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Speaker 3: And Chelsea is a team that I've faded quite a

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Speaker 3: bit in the second half and most of the last season.

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Speaker 3: I think this whole podcast did I disagree a little

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Speaker 3: bit on the sense that they had a great summer.

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Speaker 3: I don't think they addressed their biggest weakness, which was midfield. Conte, Covid,

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Speaker 3: Chic and Georgino are all aging. Conte and Georgino actually

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Speaker 3: now on the wrong side of thirty a lot of

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Speaker 3: minutes logged, and they both missed a lot of time

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Speaker 3: last year. Conte was under twenty twenty nineties last year,

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Speaker 3: I mean nineteen and change in terms of matches played.

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Speaker 3: So I think there's a real concern that they didn't

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Speaker 3: properly address that, and you could say that Connor Gallagher

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Speaker 3: was the solution to that, but I'm not quite buying

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Speaker 3: that either. When you look at his type of game,

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Speaker 3: he's someone who relies on not being on the ball

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Speaker 3: a ton, showing up in the right places, adding a goal,

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Speaker 3: scoring and insisting punch on the edge of the box.

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Speaker 3: It's not really what Chelsea needs. They have somebody like

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Speaker 3: Mason Mount who does a lot of that from a

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Speaker 3: more advanced position. I don't really know if Gallagher is

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Speaker 3: equipped to play in a two, and I don't think

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Speaker 3: they're going to play him in a three, so I'm

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Speaker 3: not really sure what his role is. I'm really interested

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Speaker 3: to see how he fits into this Toogal system. But

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Speaker 3: I have my doubts about Chelsea's midfield being able to

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Speaker 3: stay healthy, and I think that's the biggest question mark

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Speaker 3: with them. I don't think they'll be the most injured

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Speaker 3: team in the league. They were one of the most

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Speaker 3: injured teams last year, so that's one reason to say, hey,

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Speaker 3: you know, probably should cool it. Like I don't think

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Speaker 3: they're going to go into free fall, but I just

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Speaker 3: think everybody around them got better. I think Spurs got better.

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Speaker 3: I think Arsenal got better, and I do think Man

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Speaker 3: United is going to be better this year. So on

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Speaker 3: that front alone, I'm kind of skeptical of Chelsea's chances

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Speaker 3: of getting top four. I think, if I have to

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Speaker 3: bet this, I'm gonna go small on Arsenal plus one fifty.

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Speaker 3: I love the move they made getting Gabrielle jay Zeus.

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Speaker 3: I think we've seen him at City have a finishing

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Speaker 3: issue that may always persist, but I think he does

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Speaker 3: other enough other things to link the play and to

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Speaker 3: come short and pass it and fit that Arteta kind

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Speaker 3: of style to overcome those potential finishing deficiencies. Because I

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Speaker 3: think at this point in his career we have enough

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Speaker 3: of a sample to say he's never going to be

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Speaker 3: an above average finisher, but he may have an okay

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Speaker 3: season and that maybe enough. Because he was getting zero

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Speaker 3: point seven point eight per ninety at one point at City.

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Speaker 3: He didn't get that the last two years. But I

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Speaker 3: do like what Arsenal's done. I think the gap between

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Speaker 3: them Chelsea and Spurs, and even if United is pushing

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Speaker 3: up again, I think it's pretty small. And so at

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Speaker 3: plus one fifty there's four spots. Two teams I think

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Speaker 3: they're you know, maybe two and a half if I

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Speaker 3: have to rank them, you know, a little bit behind

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Speaker 3: Spurs and a little bit behind Chelsea, but not much.

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Speaker 3: So I'm going to go with Arsenal there to get

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Speaker 3: in the top four and return to the Champions League.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to the top six market.

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Speaker 2: There's one thing I want to note. If some sports

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Speaker 2: books will deal whin or without the Big Six, and

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Speaker 2: you might be able to get better odds on long

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Speaker 2: shots betting it that way rather than just betting a

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Speaker 2: top six tickets. So just shop around, kind of do

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Speaker 2: the logic in your head. Which brings me back to

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Speaker 2: Crystal Palace.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I like aston Villa in that market, but we'll get

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Speaker 3: to them later.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Palace last year, I don't want to say that

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Speaker 2: they were unlucky, but they were unlucky. I think a

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Speaker 2: lot of times we kind of convolute bluck and talent,

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Speaker 2: and if Crystal Palace had just a little bit more talent,

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Speaker 2: they probably would have been a little bit luckier because

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Speaker 2: they were creating chances, they were generally out playing opposition.

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Speaker 2: They just some games would finish nil nil or one

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Speaker 2: one because they just didn't have enough game breakers to

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Speaker 2: steal the results against against teams that did six best

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Speaker 2: expectacle differential in the Premier League last year. That's ahead

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Speaker 2: of United, it was ahead of Brighton, it was ahead

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Speaker 2: of west Ham. You couldn't make the argument that Palace

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Speaker 2: was probably like in terms of just how they played

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Speaker 2: the seventh or Ace eighth best team in the Premier

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Speaker 2: League last year. A little bit better luck, a little

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Speaker 2: bit of better way for we're talking about Palace finishing

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Speaker 2: in that kind of area of the table. So I

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Speaker 2: know they lose Connor Gallagher, but theirs summer business is

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Speaker 2: in pretty encouraging. They have a great center back partnership.

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Speaker 2: They solidified their goalkeeping position. They still have enough scoring

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Speaker 2: depth with with Zaha as a Michael Elise. But Beneke,

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Speaker 2: like you, there's enough goals in this team, so I

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Speaker 2: think there's just a path for Palace to get there.

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Speaker 2: Their Top six odds are nine to one, but if

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Speaker 2: you bet Palace to win the Premier League without the

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Speaker 2: Big Six, they're fourteen to one. I like both of those, Anthony,

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Speaker 2: you already spoiled it, but you have a different team

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Speaker 2: that you're looking at here.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I'm not disagreeing on Palace, but I'm going

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Speaker 3: to go with aston Villa, I think for similar reason,

387
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Speaker 3: for similar reasons, they have the most depth of all

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Speaker 3: these teams in that little group, you know, and for

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Speaker 3: me it is the top six and I fully expect

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Speaker 3: them to finish one to six. That's how I have

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Speaker 3: them rated. I think BJS two and when it comes

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Speaker 3: to seventh, it's actually kind of hard, like I don't

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Speaker 3: think there is a clear seventh. You could make an

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Speaker 3: argument for Palace. You could make an argument that right

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Speaker 3: now it may not be Newcastle, but by August, by

396
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Speaker 3: the September first, it may well be depending on who

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Speaker 3: they add. I'm a little hesitant on that. I'm not

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Speaker 3: buying the Newcastle hype at the moment, but the one

399
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Speaker 3: team that I am buying who improved quite a bit

400
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Speaker 3: throughout the course of last season is Aston Villa. Now

401
00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:48,959
Speaker 3: their point total is lined at fifty one and a half,

402
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Speaker 3: so it is a little bit lower than a couple

403
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Speaker 3: of teams around them, namely west Ham, So they're a

404
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Speaker 3: little bit low or a little bit lower, but not

405
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Speaker 3: much and so so I think at six to one.

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Speaker 3: What I like about Villa is that they strengthened the defense,

407
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Speaker 3: adding Diego Carlos to play next to Tyrone Mings, so

408
00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:14,320
Speaker 3: that's an upgrade. Lucadinie Michael's guy. You know, he provided

409
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Speaker 3: a pretty strong crossing punch for them last season once

410
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Speaker 3: he joined the club, and I think that really helped

411
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Speaker 3: open up their attack just a little bit. And of

412
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Speaker 3: course Gerrard, this is what he was known for at

413
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Speaker 3: his past jobs. When he took over, the first thing

414
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Speaker 3: that happened, they stopped conceding chances, the defense made huge

415
00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:35,520
Speaker 3: strides and in the second half of the season. I

416
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Speaker 3: know they didn't finish in the top half of the table,

417
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Speaker 3: but they played like the eighth ninth best team in

418
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Speaker 3: the league under Gerrard. So I don't think Villa could

419
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Speaker 3: take a step forward. They have a full season Iccatino.

420
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Speaker 3: Now I'm seeing all the by signals on them. And

421
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Speaker 3: like I said, with the depth west Ham stayed remarkably

422
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Speaker 3: healthy last year. Depth questions with them now with you know,

423
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Speaker 3: also being in Europe, so that's an issue. Lester hasn't

424
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Speaker 3: really added anybody. I'm pretty skeptical on that. And then

425
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Speaker 3: Brighton has lost a couple of players and hasn't made

426
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Speaker 3: it much of an addition. Yet I do like Cato

427
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Speaker 3: in the midfield, but they they do have some question

428
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Speaker 3: marks as well, So I think Villa at six to

429
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Speaker 3: one is worth a shot to be the seventh best team.

430
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Speaker 3: But I also definitely don't hate a look on Palace.

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Speaker 3: I bet them to be in the top ten.

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Speaker 2: All right, BJ, what about you?

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Speaker 1: Well, I'm actually I'm gonna go a little different route here.

434
00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:24,919
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go not to make the top six and

435
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,560
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a Manchester United at plus one sixty five.

436
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:31,480
Speaker 1: I don't buy the ten hog hype one bit right

437
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:35,000
Speaker 1: now because I am not in at all. He does

438
00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,679
Speaker 1: not have the personnel to run his system. If you

439
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:39,679
Speaker 1: really think about how he played at I as he

440
00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:43,240
Speaker 1: overwhelmed teams in the Ara to Visa. They played a

441
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,040
Speaker 1: pretty weak group in the Champions League. I mean, let's

442
00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 1: be honest, they were able to overwhelm team.

443
00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:50,439
Speaker 3: Wait a minute, you're gonna say I X wasn't actually

444
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:51,119
Speaker 3: that good.

445
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:53,680
Speaker 1: Well, they weren't good, but they were an easy group.

446
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:56,520
Speaker 3: Last year.

447
00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 1: I mean they didn't run through the Group of Death.

448
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 1: I mean they ran through Dortmund Sporting in Bashitas and

449
00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:04,160
Speaker 1: let's be honest, that's not that great of a group.

450
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:07,840
Speaker 1: But my point is is that I ACTS dominates possession. Okay,

451
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,720
Speaker 1: they held sixty two percent in the air to VSA,

452
00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:13,120
Speaker 1: thirty eight percent of that possession was in the opponent's

453
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 1: final third. So they basically just have everybody going forward.

454
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 1: They're very reliant on their wing backs getting forward and

455
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,520
Speaker 1: really helping out the attack. And then also when they're

456
00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 1: out of possession, they're very reliant on pressing really quick,

457
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:26,800
Speaker 1: getting the ball back quickly. We saw last season that

458
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 1: United had no interest in pressing as a team. I

459
00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:32,120
Speaker 1: mean they were twelfth and pass per defensive action under Ragnik,

460
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:36,720
Speaker 1: fourteenth and high turnovers forced. So suddenly the same essentially

461
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:39,400
Speaker 1: the same group of players is going to buy into

462
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 1: a system where they're just going to press, press, press. No,

463
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:44,760
Speaker 1: that's not going to happen. I mean, you lose Paul

464
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 1: pog but who was I understand he was injured for

465
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:48,959
Speaker 1: most of the season, but you saw without Paul Pogba

466
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:53,639
Speaker 1: how bad United was in transition. I mean, Scott mctomenay

467
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,679
Speaker 1: and Fred were terrible for large stretches of the season.

468
00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 1: So now suddenly United, who hadn't even expected gold differential

469
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 1: is gonna make the leap and really contend for the

470
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:06,639
Speaker 1: top four. No, that's not gonna happen. And if this

471
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,159
Speaker 1: team truly gets off to a bad start, I mean

472
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,240
Speaker 1: it's kind of crater. We saw how much it just

473
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:14,479
Speaker 1: fell off for them last season. So I mean they

474
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 1: are there point toll sixty five and a half, which

475
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,120
Speaker 1: is obviously way too high. They should not be priced

476
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,879
Speaker 1: above Arsenal. And you know, to Michael's point, if a

477
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,439
Speaker 1: team like a Crystal Palace or an aston Villa, one

478
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:25,800
Speaker 1: of these teams that's not playing in Europe and with

479
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,920
Speaker 1: our condensed schedule, with a World Cup and everything like that,

480
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 1: it's very likely that United gets burnt out and that

481
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:35,600
Speaker 1: these players don't buy into ten Honks system. And we're

482
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,200
Speaker 1: sitting here as we go into the World Cup and

483
00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 1: United's in the bottom half the table. And guess what,

484
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:44,440
Speaker 1: Christiano Ronaldo is begging for a transfer. So I don't

485
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 1: get the United hype. I don't think ten Hook has

486
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 1: the players to fit his system. Eventually, he might, Eventually,

487
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:51,600
Speaker 1: he might get the system right, you know, going in

488
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:54,680
Speaker 1: the right direction, United might become a top four contender.

489
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 1: But right now, no, this team is not even close

490
00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 1: to the top four. So I think you're getting a

491
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:02,720
Speaker 1: decent price on United to finish outside the top six

492
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 1: and plus one sixty five.

493
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 2: I've been very excited for the Premier League to come back,

494
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:09,439
Speaker 2: but listening to you right there, BJ just took it

495
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:11,719
Speaker 2: up at an extual level. I just can't wait. Now.

496
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:13,440
Speaker 3: I guess we have to talk about United now. Do

497
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:15,000
Speaker 3: you have to do that, because like I don't know.

498
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:16,480
Speaker 1: I want to hear. I want to hear your your

499
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:17,440
Speaker 1: belief intent.

500
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:19,640
Speaker 2: I think before we get to you, Anthony, I think

501
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:22,679
Speaker 2: your point BJ is the right way to actually just

502
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 2: look at this market as a whole. The top six

503
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 2: is someone needs to fall out of the Big six

504
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 2: for there to be an opening for, you know, a

505
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 2: value side to get through, whether it's Newcastle, Villa, west

506
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 2: Ham Palace, Everton, whoever you want to whoever you want

507
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,640
Speaker 2: to throw in there. And I think that United's floor

508
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:45,200
Speaker 2: of those six teams is miles below the other five

509
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 2: teams of the Big six. But I do think that

510
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 2: there is a world here where it clicks.

511
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 1: You know, it can definitely happen. I just I don't

512
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 1: see the personnel being able to click after what we

513
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:58,359
Speaker 1: saw under Regnick I mean, they had no interest in

514
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:03,360
Speaker 1: pressing as a team, so I was a circumstance.

515
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:05,719
Speaker 3: It was like everything went wrong, right.

516
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 2: It was like a lame duck kind of season for them,

517
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 2: I believe. So, yeah, I definitely don't think that. I

518
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 2: think that if you're looking at it from last year,

519
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,639
Speaker 2: after like the first three weeks of Ragnick, when they like,

520
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 2: what is this guy even doing here? He's still a consultant. Like,

521
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 2: it was just such a strange season that it's kind

522
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 2: of hard to read into what happened there.

523
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 3: The biggest thing is they did improve. There was like

524
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,200
Speaker 3: a six to seven match stretch and I know the

525
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:34,040
Speaker 3: schedule wasn't that good, right, but we had this conversation

526
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 3: on the pod. I remember saying like, hey, look guys,

527
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 3: like United's like kind of taking a step forward. There

528
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 3: was the Southampton game, the Burnley game. There was another

529
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,439
Speaker 3: couple of games in there, Brighton game, where they they

530
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 3: played well and they were doing the things that Ragnick

531
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 3: wanted and they got football. A couple of times they

532
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:51,120
Speaker 3: didn't get the results, and then you could you could

533
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,199
Speaker 3: see it. I mean the rolling x G chart. It

534
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 3: was like, Okay, we're down, down, down, We fire Ola.

535
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:57,720
Speaker 3: Now we're I mean, it was a little bit of

536
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 3: a wabble and then straight up they did proved and

537
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:03,639
Speaker 3: then like a cliff, they just fell off the cliff.

538
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:05,719
Speaker 3: And I think to that point it was, yeah, we're

539
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:09,440
Speaker 3: quitting on on Ralph, like this, who's this guy? He's

540
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 3: not going to be here next year, He's not going

541
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 3: to be our manager. They had all these other issues.

542
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 3: The Rinaldo saga is an interesting one because I don't

543
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 3: think Ronaldo is a net positive for United and I

544
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 3: will take that to the grave, especially in a ten

545
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 3: hog system where you kind of do need the forward

546
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 3: to do some defensive work. So that's an interesting one.

547
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,360
Speaker 3: The other thing is I feel like we're selling low

548
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:31,679
Speaker 3: here on United. You know, at this point last season

549
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:34,680
Speaker 3: we looked at a very similar squad and said, yeah,

550
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 3: they should be fourth or fifth. And I understand, like

551
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 3: I said, Spurs and Arsenal have gotten better. I thought

552
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:42,440
Speaker 3: United was going to comfortably finish fourth last year going

553
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 3: into the season, and everything went wrong right and they

554
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 3: still managed to get six. They weren't actually six. But

555
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 3: so I think the argument here for United is, look,

556
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 3: we know how good Jayden Sancho is. We know how

557
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:58,359
Speaker 3: good Bruno Fernandez is. Fred actually didn't have a terrible season.

558
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:01,120
Speaker 3: Mcdonmin Ay's not great, but they did make some additions

559
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:04,280
Speaker 3: with the Sandra Martinez good ball playing center back. Harry

560
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 3: McGuire can't be as bad as he was last year.

561
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:08,360
Speaker 3: That's another thing. McGuire went from one of the best

562
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 3: center backs, not just in the league but in the world.

563
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:13,959
Speaker 3: I mean, he had a great Euro, I thought, and

564
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,919
Speaker 3: then just turns into a pumpkin, you know. So I

565
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:19,879
Speaker 3: don't think he's a pumpkin. I think he'll be fine.

566
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,159
Speaker 3: And so all these all these kind of things that

567
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 3: went wrong for United. I'm not saying I'm buying United

568
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 3: because the number hasn't given them a lot of respect.

569
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:28,919
Speaker 3: I thought I was gonna get like a plus two

570
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 3: to fifty to finish top four, and then I was

571
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 3: gonna have to bet it and I was gonna hate it.

572
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 3: But at sixty five and a half, the point total

573
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 3: set in a space where I can just say, ah,

574
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 3: I'll pass. But I'm not selling United, even if I'm

575
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,440
Speaker 3: not necessarily, you know, buying them at the current number.

576
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:44,399
Speaker 2: I think we're all in agreement that you should we

577
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 2: should be flipping United in Arsenal just on the big

578
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:48,120
Speaker 2: board here.

579
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:50,879
Speaker 3: Yes, but it's close, Like I don't think it's a

580
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:51,399
Speaker 3: huge Yeah.

581
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:54,120
Speaker 2: I mean the odds are close twenty eight thirty five

582
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 2: to one, don't they tell you that those two teams

583
00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:59,119
Speaker 2: are very close? But I think the wrong number on

584
00:26:59,160 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 2: the wrong team.

585
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:03,119
Speaker 3: Also like Arsenal's squad just generally being one of the

586
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,679
Speaker 3: youngest teams in the league. Addingson Chenko, I think he

587
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 3: adds important depth in certain areas. Williams Liba, I know

588
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,679
Speaker 3: Bja is very excited about him from the Marseille, one

589
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 3: of the greatest clubs of all time. You know he

590
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:18,920
Speaker 3: could they finished second, yep, yeah, sure we could say that.

591
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 3: I can't wait for them the Champions League, but you know,

592
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,119
Speaker 3: we'll We'll see with Arsenal. But I do think that

593
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:26,399
Speaker 3: when you have a squad this young and they're trending

594
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:27,879
Speaker 3: up in the right direction, all you need is one

595
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 3: or two players to take a leap, someone like Martinelli

596
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 3: or Soka who took a step last year. If they

597
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 3: take a leap, we could be having a very different

598
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:37,199
Speaker 3: conversation about Arsenal come May. That's why I took them.

599
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:38,400
Speaker 3: Tomirson top four all.

600
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:41,479
Speaker 2: Right, let's move to top ten here. I've seen kind

601
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:43,960
Speaker 2: of saga dance with Palace there plus two seventy five.

602
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 2: I think all three of us like there. I like

603
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 2: a team to not finish in the top ten. That's

604
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:49,479
Speaker 2: Leicester City. But I have a lot more to say

605
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,359
Speaker 2: about them, so I'll save it. But I think at

606
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 2: even odds, getting even odds on them to finish in

607
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 2: the bottom half is is a good bet. BJ What

608
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:57,360
Speaker 2: do you have here?

609
00:27:57,720 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love Brentford five to one for top ten.

610
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 1: You know, second league, a second year in the Premier

611
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 1: League is you know, generally teams start to dip a

612
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 1: little bit, but I think Brentford's one of these clubs

613
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 1: that's a little bit different. So last season one of

614
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 1: the biggest hunderformers along with Pallas. You know, about a

615
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 1: ten point differential between their actual points and their expected points.

616
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,239
Speaker 1: Now you can make the argument that towards the end

617
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:22,480
Speaker 1: of the season, Christian Eriksson coming in made a gigantic

618
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 1: difference and was the reason that basically they finished with

619
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 1: a minus one point three expected goal differential, which was

620
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 1: eighth in the Premier League. And you know, if you

621
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 1: look at the on offf split see, he made a

622
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,919
Speaker 1: huge difference. They went from one point one five actually

623
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 1: for ninety to one point five, so it was a

624
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 1: big difference. So losing him obviously hurts. But with that

625
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:42,960
Speaker 1: being said, the competition around him and we've already you know,

626
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 1: kind of touched on it. But when you get outside

627
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 1: the top six, I mean you can make an argument

628
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 1: for a lot of different teams to finish in that

629
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 1: seventh spot. And Brentford if everything goes according to plan

630
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 1: and they continue to play it the way they did

631
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 1: last year, and they added a few young pieces that

632
00:28:57,600 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 1: I really like that can give them some good depth.

633
00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 1: And you know, I'm a big fan of Keen Lewis

634
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 1: Potter from Whole City. I think him playing a left

635
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 1: wing along with Tony and and Boemu is going to

636
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 1: be huge for them. I think five to ones just

637
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 1: a little too high for a team that was eight

638
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 1: had the eighth best expected gold differential. And also there

639
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 1: was a point in the middle of the season last

640
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 1: year where Brentford, even Tony was out, Sergey Canals was out,

641
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 1: David Rya was out, and they got they got beaten

642
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 1: up by Southampton and a couple other teams. So you

643
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 1: can factor that in along with Christian Eriks and helping

644
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 1: them towards the end of the season. I do believe

645
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 1: in the Bees, and I believe that they should not

646
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 1: be priced around a relegation battle's I mean, it's kind

647
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 1: of crazy. I don't I don't see that at all.

648
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:43,840
Speaker 1: So the hell's obviously big for them, you know, as

649
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 1: it is with any of these lower type clubs. You know,

650
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 1: if if Tony and and Buaimou and one other guy

651
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 1: gets hurt, I mean, it could create very fast. But

652
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 1: the price on Brentford is too good at plus five

653
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 1: hundred to finish in the top ten. And I'm with

654
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 1: you guys also on Palace. I'm just echoing everything you

655
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 1: guys have already said. So my two main bets are

656
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:03,520
Speaker 1: Palace plus two seventy five for top ten and Brentford

657
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 1: plus five hundred.

658
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 2: Brentford is the only team in the Premier League that

659
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 2: won't have a new kit this year. They go on

660
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 2: a two year cycle tip, so you get a more

661
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 2: mileage out out of your kit as a fan, Anton

662
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 2: if anything for you top ten market.

663
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll echo the sentiments of Palace. You mentioned why

664
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 3: you like Pallas. I'll talk about some of their new

665
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 3: additions that I happen to really like. Adding Richards one,

666
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 3: we love our Americans in the prem but two, I

667
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 3: think a lot of it is his ability to be

668
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 3: a good ball playing center back alongside Gay He We're

669
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 3: not exactly sure what the minutes breakdown will look like there,

670
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 3: but I think it fits the profile of what they

671
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 3: wanted and check the core. Adding him from France pretty

672
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 3: impressive profile of a player who can do some ball winning,

673
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 3: who can do some passing, does a little bit of everything.

674
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 3: He's not going to be some elite, you know, game

675
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 3: changing player, but good depth to help replace Connor Gallagher.

676
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 3: They're going to lose his scoring punch, which I think

677
00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 3: will hurt. But what we say off from them last

678
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 3: season top six defensive team in the league, I think

679
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:07,479
Speaker 3: they can maintain a top eight or nine defensive team

680
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 3: this year based on their personnel. We might even see

681
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 3: some three at the back, which is what's kind of

682
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 3: been rumored, which will be really interesting. But I like

683
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 3: Pallace generally because they also have a good depth in attack.

684
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 3: We named all the names, they didn't have good finishing

685
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 3: seasons from a lot of those guys and still put

686
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 3: together enough, and I think that's gonna be the case again. No,

687
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 3: I think with Brentford that kind of scares me. We

688
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 3: love them because they cashed a lot for us. It's

689
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 3: a big underdog against these big six teams. What if

690
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 3: that just doesn't happen this year? What if? What if? Like, yeah,

691
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 3: they're a not great team who loses two better teams.

692
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 3: They don't get ten points off the top six. That's

693
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,320
Speaker 3: the only scary thing that I think the market is

694
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 3: pretty sour on them for. I'm still gonna bet them

695
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 3: at home when they played Chelsea Arsenal Liverpool Spurs like

696
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:55,720
Speaker 3: we're probably gonna do this song and dance all year,

697
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 3: where I'm like, well, I'm kind of not sure about Brentford.

698
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 3: And then the market shows them zero respect because they're

699
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 3: like plus three hundred to be relegated and they're I

700
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 3: think fourth worst, and like, I don't think they're that bad,

701
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 3: but I could see a world where they are and

702
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 3: if the attack just doesn't fire without Ericson and they

703
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 3: look like that second half of the team team who

704
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 3: couldn't score for a while and then was just kind

705
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 3: of hanging on for dear life until Ericson kind of

706
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 3: provided that jolt and they shot right back up at

707
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 3: the end of the season. If they don't get that,

708
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 3: I think it could get really dicey for Brentford. But

709
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 3: there's also a world where yes, that positive aggression comes

710
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 3: and they end up in the top ten. I don't

711
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 3: hate them as a long shot, but I like Pallace.

712
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 3: I think they're a good, good value bet at plus

713
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 3: two seventy five to get into the top ten.

714
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk relegation here. Bourne myth, Nottingham Forrest

715
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 2: and Fulham are the new teams in the Premier League promoted.

716
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 2: It's nice to have Nottingham Force back in a Premier League.

717
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 2: Last time they were up, Anthony, probably before you were born,

718
00:32:55,960 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 2: so your first look at the former European champions. Yeah,

719
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 2: an absolute massive club back in the seventies and eighties,

720
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,280
Speaker 2: and they're back along with Fulham and Bournemouth, who are

721
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 2: yo yoing back and forth between the Championship and the

722
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 2: Premier League of late. Bournemouth are your favorites to be

723
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 2: relegated nineus one ninety the only team odds on forced

724
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 2: r plus one ten, Fulham plus one, twenty Leeds plus

725
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 2: two twenty five Brentford plus two to fifty, Southampton three

726
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 2: to one, Everdon three and a half to one, seven

727
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 2: to two, Wolves five to one, Palace five and a

728
00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 2: half to one, Brighton eight to one, Villa twelve to one,

729
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 2: Leicester fourteen to one Newcastle West Ham in the mid twenties.

730
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:42,160
Speaker 2: And that's really all we should get into because the

731
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 2: other teams help freeze is over maybe, but b Jo,

732
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 2: let's start with you for your favorite bet to get

733
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 2: relegated here.

734
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 1: Well, I think it's all our favorite bets. Wolves five

735
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 1: to one. I mean, we talked with them so much

736
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 1: last year about the over performance and it's just insane.

737
00:33:56,320 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 1: I mean, tenth place, fifty one points minus five actual

738
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 1: goal deferential. If you looked at that, you'd probably say, Okay,

739
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 1: they're bid level club, like who really cares. They'll probably

740
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 1: finish eleventh ten something like this year minus twenty four

741
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:14,279
Speaker 1: point four expected goal differential forty point five expected points,

742
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:18,320
Speaker 1: which would put them in seventeenth place. So we're getting

743
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:20,400
Speaker 1: a decent price on them at five to one. I

744
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:22,800
Speaker 1: don't think jose Saw is the greatest keeper in the world.

745
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 1: I'll just say it. Maybe I'll be wrong, but I

746
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 1: went and did a little research because he had the

747
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:30,960
Speaker 1: best post shot x G plus minus last year at

748
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 1: plus nine point six. Over the last two or three years,

749
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:36,800
Speaker 1: and basically since we started kind of tracking this type

750
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 1: of metric, it's happened a couple of times. You know,

751
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:41,440
Speaker 1: Hugo your East has done it a couple times. But

752
00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:43,840
Speaker 1: I view him as a pretty you know, well rounded,

753
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 1: you know, one of above average keeper. Fabianski did it

754
00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 1: head over a plus ten at west Ham in twenty

755
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 1: eighteen nineteen. The following season he went minus du breka.

756
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty twenty twenty one season for Newcastle he

757
00:34:57,160 --> 00:34:59,399
Speaker 1: had over plus ten. He went down to plus one

758
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 1: the next So I don't think that Jill J. Sah

759
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 1: is going to continue to save shots the way that

760
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 1: he has been. And if Wolves continues to play ultra

761
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 1: compact and give up a ton of shots, especially inside

762
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 1: the box, because they gave Brown seven and a half

763
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 1: shots for ninety inside the eighteen yard box, which was

764
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:17,319
Speaker 1: the fourth worst market in the Premier League, they're going

765
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:21,799
Speaker 1: to regress a lot defensively and you know, offensively. It

766
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:23,359
Speaker 1: just came out, you know, he meant as it's hurt

767
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,799
Speaker 1: for a little while, and I don't really know where

768
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 1: the goals are coming from this team. You know, you

769
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 1: can say NATO's back, he's healthy, Okay, that's fine. You

770
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 1: know Chang is going to be up top. But I

771
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:35,680
Speaker 1: don't really see where it's coming from. I mean, nobody

772
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 1: on their team had over a point twenty five xgp

773
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:40,760
Speaker 1: P ninety last year. I mean, this offense was terrible

774
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,480
Speaker 1: for large stretches of the season. I mean they're at

775
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:47,080
Speaker 1: one point. I mean if you go from January first,

776
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 1: on the average point nine to five. Actually for ninety minutes,

777
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 1: they only accumulated over one expected goal six times in

778
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 1: the last twenty matches. So at five to one, it's

779
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:00,200
Speaker 1: a really good price on a team that's due for

780
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 1: a lot of negative regression if they continue to play

781
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:06,239
Speaker 1: this style continually. So I think you have to play

782
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 1: Wolves at plus five hundred for relegation.

783
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:11,319
Speaker 2: One thing on Wolves, I agree with you. I think

784
00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:14,560
Speaker 2: that they're a good punt on to be relegated. Here

785
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 2: here's their opening schedule leads Fulham, Spurs, Newcastle, Bournemouth, Southampton.

786
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:23,640
Speaker 2: You probably could get it if they go through that

787
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 2: pretty well, which they probably should, like you'd expect them

788
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 2: to put you know, a couple of points in the

789
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 2: bank against Fulham, Bournemouth and your Southampton leads, you might

790
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,319
Speaker 2: be able to get a better number. So you can

791
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:37,560
Speaker 2: kind of do a song and dance with with Wolverhampton

792
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 2: and maybe wait for to see if they start hot,

793
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:43,719
Speaker 2: people get you know, tongues get wagging. That maybe that

794
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:50,239
Speaker 2: Bruno lage. The revolution is truly starting now with with

795
00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:53,759
Speaker 2: with the Wolves overs the relegation be I like I

796
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 2: think outside of Wolves is some sportsbooks will post exact

797
00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:01,880
Speaker 2: or relegation exactas or or trebles, and so you have

798
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:05,280
Speaker 2: to put bet all three teams. The three teams. I

799
00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:08,920
Speaker 2: wanted to bet eighty to one on bournemth Fulham, Leicester

800
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:14,319
Speaker 2: those that's my favorite long shot. You know, put in

801
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:18,760
Speaker 2: your pocket, sprinkle a little Christmas money unlesser to get relegated,

802
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 2: and that's how I would do it. Put them with

803
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:23,319
Speaker 2: two other teams. Anthony, what's your favorite relegation bet?

804
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:25,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going to back you up on Wolves. I'm

805
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 3: gonna say that I agree with Wolves. We can talk

806
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 3: a little bit more about it.

807
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 1: You know.

808
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 3: The one thing that I was kind of curious to

809
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:34,439
Speaker 3: go through and see was okay, is it true? That

810
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 3: maybe because they were winning all these games. Let's say

811
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 3: they got lucky early in games, and because they were winning,

812
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 3: they were just sitting back and kind of just defending

813
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:46,399
Speaker 3: what they had and because Saa was so good, they

814
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:48,840
Speaker 3: got away with it, and that maybe if they weren't

815
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 3: winning all the time, they wouldn't have given away as

816
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 3: many chances. Right, that's like a theory a game. The

817
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:58,479
Speaker 3: classic game stand of argument that people will make. People

818
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:00,359
Speaker 3: made it for Tottenham a couple of years ago when

819
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:01,759
Speaker 3: they would go out one nill and then just sit

820
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:05,479
Speaker 3: there and then they kept tying Wolves last season when

821
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 3: tied or losing, so that's they needed a goal. The

822
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:12,080
Speaker 3: objective was, we need to go score a goal. Only

823
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:16,799
Speaker 3: created point nine expected goals for per ninety that's the

824
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 3: fourth worst in the prem So their attack might be

825
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:24,759
Speaker 3: a bigger story than their defense, because yes, we don't

826
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 3: expect Jose Soada continue on this run, but they were

827
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:32,719
Speaker 3: downright terrible in attack last season. And I think the

828
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 3: injury to Humanez that means that they're pretty much rolling

829
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 3: out Hwang Hi Chen as their striker and I'm not

830
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:43,359
Speaker 3: buying him long term in this league. So you know

831
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:45,759
Speaker 3: there's a problem there. And the other thing is the

832
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:48,200
Speaker 3: second half of the season, it continued to get worse.

833
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 3: Even if they you know, they were chasing for Europe

834
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,680
Speaker 3: and they had a legitimate chance to get into Europe.

835
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 3: They were fourth worst defensively next year against second half.

836
00:38:57,920 --> 00:38:59,719
Speaker 3: That being said, I did bet some Wolves. That was

837
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:02,040
Speaker 3: the first that I made. I wanted to make sure

838
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 3: that it was symbolic. So my first bet was Wolves

839
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 3: to be relegated. My second bet was Leads on the

840
00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:11,720
Speaker 3: money line against Wolves in the first week of the season.

841
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 3: So I've i've I'm gonna go poor this year with

842
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 3: this damn Jose Sagui. But you know what, We're going

843
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:23,040
Speaker 3: down with the ship. So my actual favorite relegation bet

844
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 3: besides Wolves, of course, is Nottingham Forest, because I do

845
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:31,000
Speaker 3: think the market is overreacting to all of these signings.

846
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 3: I mean, every time I check sports books, their odds

847
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:36,799
Speaker 3: just keep going up. And I get it, like Jesse

848
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:41,359
Speaker 3: Lingard is cool, and tywle iwan Ye is cool, and

849
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 3: we like Nico Williams, but they were not good in

850
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:48,280
Speaker 3: the championship. And and I know Michael likes Steve Cooper

851
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 3: and maybe I'll look dumb in like three weeks when

852
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:54,279
Speaker 3: there this year is Brentford and they made some really

853
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:57,000
Speaker 3: smart signings and they've improved their team enough to stay up.

854
00:39:57,280 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 3: But the baseline of how low they are starting from

855
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 3: is so low that I can't get them to be odds.

856
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,279
Speaker 3: There's a plus one twenty out there. You can't get

857
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 3: me to the point where they should be plus money

858
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:15,879
Speaker 3: to be relegated, minus money to stay up. Because they're

859
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:19,319
Speaker 3: actually four in the championship. Last year was fifth. They're

860
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:22,759
Speaker 3: actually against was seventh, so they weren't even good enough

861
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:25,719
Speaker 3: to really get promoted. They kind of luck box their

862
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:29,279
Speaker 3: way into some good results first for luckbox reference of

863
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:32,439
Speaker 3: the season. So I'm gonna take forest and I'm gonna

864
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:34,239
Speaker 3: say that even if they improve, which I do think

865
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:36,320
Speaker 3: they'll be better than their numbers were in the Championship,

866
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:38,359
Speaker 3: they added some decent players, I don't think they get

867
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:38,959
Speaker 3: some far enough.

868
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:42,399
Speaker 1: Yeah to your point, Anthony, just for everybody out there,

869
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:44,840
Speaker 1: So coming up to the Premier League from the Championship,

870
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:47,040
Speaker 1: it's the hardest league to do. It's the hardest league

871
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:50,040
Speaker 1: to stay up. I went back and you know, did

872
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 1: a data set to twenty fourteen, when you know expected

873
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:55,280
Speaker 1: Wilson is widely being tracked in most leagues and expand

874
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:59,280
Speaker 1: the Championship as well, essentially coming up using the expected

875
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 1: goals from your season in the Championship comparing it to

876
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 1: the season first season in the Premier League, your expectacles

877
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 1: four go down by about thirty one percent and your

878
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:10,359
Speaker 1: expectacles allowed go up by about fifty one percent. So

879
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:13,560
Speaker 1: to your point, Nottingham Forrest had about a plus point

880
00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:19,800
Speaker 1: three x G ninety actually differential per ninety if you know, basically,

881
00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 1: if I go through and do the math, they'd be

882
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:26,279
Speaker 1: minus point eight two actually differential in the Premier League,

883
00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:28,759
Speaker 1: which put them nineteenth this past year. And even if

884
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 1: I give them, you know, positive adjustments for defensively for

885
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:34,759
Speaker 1: all these signings and positive adjustments for you know allan

886
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:37,760
Speaker 1: nowI and Lnding guard, I mean I gave I'll be honest,

887
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:39,959
Speaker 1: I gave them zero point one five and end point

888
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 1: two five for defense and defense. So I'm giving them

889
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:46,840
Speaker 1: basically a pretty significant bump for all these signings. And

890
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:49,440
Speaker 1: there's still I still have them projected right on with Bournemouth,

891
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:51,239
Speaker 1: So I agree with you that they're one of the

892
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 1: hardest teams projects. I probably will just pass on it,

893
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:56,359
Speaker 1: but I do agree with you that I don't. I mean,

894
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 1: I get the new Nottingam Force love, but I think

895
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:00,520
Speaker 1: the market also, I agree with you that it is reacting.

896
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:04,759
Speaker 3: And Tywo was good in the Bundesliga rightly system, so

897
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:06,800
Speaker 3: it's the same system, Like they're playing in the same formation.

898
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:08,400
Speaker 1: He's going to play a front two with probably Brendan

899
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:11,120
Speaker 1: Johnson would be my guess. So it's gonna be the

900
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:13,879
Speaker 1: same system. He'll be hopefully will but is he really

901
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 1: going to be good if he's not getting three and

902
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 1: a half four shots for ninety if he's getting you know,

903
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 1: a half or one, is he really going to be

904
00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:20,680
Speaker 1: that effective?

905
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 3: So the Bundesliga tax is real. And if you you know,

906
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 3: there was a certain striker last year and I think

907
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:30,239
Speaker 3: Taiwa was better than Wu, but you know, Wu came

908
00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:32,880
Speaker 3: into the prem from like a two and a half

909
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:36,160
Speaker 3: shots per ninety in the Bundesliga type of role and

910
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:38,400
Speaker 3: he wasn't even getting a shot per ninety. He was

911
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 3: getting like a shot And for Burnley, and I know

912
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 3: Burnley and Noddingham Forest are a little bit different, but

913
00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:48,480
Speaker 3: are they you know, like yeah, Forrest definitely different managers

914
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:53,080
Speaker 3: are definitely different. Yes, but Forrest, like this midfield doesn't

915
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 3: look like a midfield of a team who's going to

916
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:56,879
Speaker 3: be competitive in this league.

917
00:42:57,080 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, and to your point, I mean, they were the

918
00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:01,240
Speaker 1: one of the heaviest counter attacking teams in the Championship

919
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 1: last year. They had the most direct attacks of anybody.

920
00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:06,279
Speaker 1: So I'm guessing they're probably gonna play ultra defensive and

921
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:09,000
Speaker 1: then try to hit teams on the counter, so, which

922
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:11,439
Speaker 1: is kind of what Union Berlin did and the bon

923
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,640
Speaker 1: is they are like the one team that like didn't

924
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 1: press and like sat back and tried to counter. So

925
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:17,719
Speaker 1: I mean you can make the argument that it's the

926
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 1: same system Brown nowI like he's just not going to

927
00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 1: be that much big ye that this team is kind

928
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 1: of used to not having the ball. But again, like

929
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:25,879
Speaker 1: it's it's gonna be it's gonna be a big time

930
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:27,160
Speaker 1: challenge to stay up for Forrest.

931
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Forrest, I'm buying them. I like Steve

932
00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 2: Cooper as a manager. I think the Brentford kind of

933
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 2: drawing a line from from Forrest to Brentford. Maybe he's

934
00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:40,400
Speaker 2: a little too convenient just because of their newly promoted status,

935
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:42,360
Speaker 2: but I think Forrests are going to take a couple

936
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:46,520
Speaker 2: big results in their first season with Cooper at the helm,

937
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:51,440
Speaker 2: and like he's he took over this team last year

938
00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:54,680
Speaker 2: and just turned them into, like like you just said,

939
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:57,880
Speaker 2: a counter attacking force that just didn't stop trudging up

940
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:00,799
Speaker 2: the championship table like they were they were at the

941
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:02,359
Speaker 2: bottom of the league. I think they lost their first

942
00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:06,240
Speaker 2: four games last year in the championship and got promoted.

943
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:09,320
Speaker 2: If it's quite the story. I have no interest in

944
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:11,360
Speaker 2: betting them because I think the numbers are not worth

945
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 2: getting into. But on a game two game basis, for sure,

946
00:44:14,760 --> 00:44:17,760
Speaker 2: I'll be on the trees. All right, Let's talk about

947
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:21,759
Speaker 2: our favorite markets top and bottom at Christmas. Always love

948
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:24,759
Speaker 2: to sprinkle some money on these ones. And it'll be

949
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:28,239
Speaker 2: a little different this year because usually you play the

950
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 2: first game against every team in the in the home

951
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:35,279
Speaker 2: and away by Christmas. This year, because of the World Cup,

952
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:37,200
Speaker 2: you won't, so they'll be I think, what is it, PJA.

953
00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 1: Three games, Yeah, so it'll be sixty. Everybody gets plays

954
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:45,200
Speaker 1: in barring obviously reschedulements for whatever sixteen games. So there's

955
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 1: three teams that each team will not play before the

956
00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:47,680
Speaker 1: World Cup.

957
00:44:47,920 --> 00:44:50,040
Speaker 2: So still a good you know, chunk of your schedule,

958
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:52,040
Speaker 2: right third of your schedule. So I've got two. I

959
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 2: got a top and a bottom. I want to start

960
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 2: with the bottom. Leicester City forty to one to be

961
00:44:57,120 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 2: bottom at Christmas. And there's a little game theory here.

962
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 2: I think that Leicester City with Brendan Rodgers, with the

963
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 2: same kind of core team has just they've they've peaked,

964
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 2: They've now slowly kind of slunk downwards and they need

965
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 2: a reboot, right. They need like an infusion somewhere, and

966
00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:19,880
Speaker 2: maybe they're getting it, you know, with with Harvey Barnes

967
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:23,320
Speaker 2: and uh the guy whose name sounds like a almost

968
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 2: like a sports book, uh Dewsbury Hall, not a sport,

969
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:31,040
Speaker 2: like a like a music ven you music than you Dewsberry.

970
00:45:31,120 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 1: You're gonna probably gonna play a lot one.

971
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:37,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, the they just need they need something like Pats

972
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:40,360
Speaker 2: and Dacas fun whatever. But there's there's a world here

973
00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:42,480
Speaker 2: where where they just are going to the season as

974
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:44,960
Speaker 2: a lame duck. They've had no transfer business in or out.

975
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:48,920
Speaker 2: Don't really see them link to anybody except for exits,

976
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:54,640
Speaker 2: right Telaman's Schmichael, Like, there's I could see this really

977
00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:58,080
Speaker 2: bottoming out for Leicester and by backing them to finish

978
00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:01,680
Speaker 2: last at Christmas, you're getting them. You're getting like a

979
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 2: shorter runway, which is good I think with this type

980
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:05,920
Speaker 2: of team, because are they going to get relegated? Probably not.

981
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:07,799
Speaker 2: Are they going to finish last they will probably not.

982
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:11,239
Speaker 2: Over thirty eight games like Bortonmouth, Fulham Forrest like these

983
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:15,279
Speaker 2: these teams are much worse than Leicester. Southampton too, like Wolves,

984
00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:19,560
Speaker 2: but over a shorter, shorter period. You can see it

985
00:46:19,600 --> 00:46:22,239
Speaker 2: happening like it's one six game, you know, losing streak

986
00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:24,640
Speaker 2: or winless streak away from being in a lot of trouble,

987
00:46:24,640 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 2: and all of a sudden you're like, okay, like this,

988
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:29,600
Speaker 2: this BET's alive. So Leicester City forty to one finished

989
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:33,359
Speaker 2: bottom for me, Anthony, your thoughts on Leicester and some

990
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 2: Christmas bets from you?

991
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:36,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't have any Christmas bets. I know BJ

992
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:38,640
Speaker 3: did some good work on this, so I'm gonna let

993
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:40,600
Speaker 3: him do that. But I do agree with you on

994
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 3: the lester to be in the bottom half. I took

995
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:45,200
Speaker 3: them plus one hundred. The thing with Leicester City was

996
00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:46,960
Speaker 3: that they had a really young team like two or

997
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 3: three years ago, and we kept saying, Oh, they're gonna

998
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:50,400
Speaker 3: take the step forward. They're gonna take the step forward,

999
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:52,720
Speaker 3: and they just haven't gotten better. They've actually gotten worse.

1000
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:55,439
Speaker 3: And I understand that set pieces were a big part

1001
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 3: of why they struggled last year, and I don't expect

1002
00:46:57,480 --> 00:47:01,560
Speaker 3: that to continue at the extent that it did. But

1003
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:03,960
Speaker 3: if they lose Schmichael, I mean, who's playing goal. They

1004
00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 3: haven't made it clear on.

1005
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:06,520
Speaker 1: That, Sandyward.

1006
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:10,240
Speaker 3: He's been the captain forever and that's like a big loss.

1007
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:13,400
Speaker 3: Bartie is at the age now where you just expect

1008
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:15,200
Speaker 3: him to be injured a good amount of the time,

1009
00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:18,279
Speaker 3: and you also expect that there's going to be some

1010
00:47:18,840 --> 00:47:21,960
Speaker 3: downturn or decline in his performance in his production, even

1011
00:47:21,960 --> 00:47:23,719
Speaker 3: though we didn't really see it in limited minutes he

1012
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:26,200
Speaker 3: played last year. Pats and Daca looked good, but the

1013
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 3: minutes weren't there for me to believe in him doing

1014
00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:31,279
Speaker 3: it over a full thirty eight. Ian Nacho took a

1015
00:47:31,320 --> 00:47:34,360
Speaker 3: huge step backwards. Madison and Barnes were okay, but Madison

1016
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:37,520
Speaker 3: may be leaving too, so there's all kinds of uncertainty.

1017
00:47:37,560 --> 00:47:40,239
Speaker 3: Tieleaman's doesn't do a lot of defensive work. He's kind

1018
00:47:40,239 --> 00:47:42,880
Speaker 3: of just a passer and they don't really get enough

1019
00:47:42,960 --> 00:47:45,319
Speaker 3: him indeed he So there's there's all these pieces were like, yeah,

1020
00:47:45,520 --> 00:47:46,960
Speaker 3: this guy could be good, this guy could be good.

1021
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:48,880
Speaker 3: We're like, that's a great bit of business, you know.

1022
00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:51,400
Speaker 3: Sama last year we thought was going to be a

1023
00:47:51,400 --> 00:47:53,719
Speaker 3: great signing and then he just kind of wasn't. So

1024
00:47:53,760 --> 00:47:55,880
Speaker 3: there's all these like pieces that we thought we're going

1025
00:47:55,920 --> 00:47:57,839
Speaker 3: to fit together really well and then sometimes it just

1026
00:47:57,880 --> 00:48:00,759
Speaker 3: doesn't happen. And what ended up actually happening was it

1027
00:48:00,840 --> 00:48:03,799
Speaker 3: Leicester ran really well and despite being outside the top

1028
00:48:03,840 --> 00:48:06,359
Speaker 3: ten in pretty much every metric you could possibly look at,

1029
00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:09,239
Speaker 3: they found themselves in the top ten by the year's end.

1030
00:48:09,320 --> 00:48:12,000
Speaker 3: So I'm selling Lester this year. I think Rogers first

1031
00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:14,759
Speaker 3: manager fired is live. I think there's a good chance

1032
00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:17,600
Speaker 3: they make no signings. I remember Spurs made no signings.

1033
00:48:17,600 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 3: They had had a great season year before, didn't make

1034
00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:21,760
Speaker 3: any signings. Things got stale, they turned on the manager,

1035
00:48:22,080 --> 00:48:24,399
Speaker 3: they fired, they were horrible. I think there's a chance

1036
00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:27,560
Speaker 3: Lester does the same thing. So maybe that's convenient as well.

1037
00:48:27,600 --> 00:48:29,279
Speaker 3: Like Michael said, you know a team I like in

1038
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:32,640
Speaker 3: the recency bias, But I'm selling Lester pretty hard in

1039
00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:36,200
Speaker 3: this twenty twenty two season and we'll see how that

1040
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:36,759
Speaker 3: goes for me.

1041
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:38,560
Speaker 2: I mean, it didn't go well for us last year.

1042
00:48:38,560 --> 00:48:40,680
Speaker 2: We were trying to do that all all season and

1043
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:43,239
Speaker 2: they kept especially in the kind of dog days of

1044
00:48:43,239 --> 00:48:46,200
Speaker 2: winter where we're getting results, scratching results.

1045
00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:48,480
Speaker 3: I mean I was betting on them at some point,

1046
00:48:48,560 --> 00:48:54,480
Speaker 3: like the Liverpool games. But yeah, generally, generally speaking, they

1047
00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:56,319
Speaker 3: had some pretty fortunate results there.

1048
00:48:56,719 --> 00:48:59,800
Speaker 2: They were kind of like the anti Palace where Palace

1049
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:02,839
Speaker 2: finished on I think forty two points and fifty two

1050
00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:07,680
Speaker 2: expected points. Lester was the opposite, a ten point delta

1051
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:11,200
Speaker 2: in between their expected points and their actual points in

1052
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:14,439
Speaker 2: the going in the wrong direction. So yeah, Leicester team

1053
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:17,600
Speaker 2: that I'll be betting against in the future market. And

1054
00:49:17,640 --> 00:49:19,919
Speaker 2: then on a game, will they start with Bford? Yeah?

1055
00:49:19,920 --> 00:49:22,719
Speaker 1: I know it was terrible. Yeah, I can read it

1056
00:49:22,719 --> 00:49:25,839
Speaker 1: off really quick because it's it's it adds into the bed. Yeah,

1057
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:30,040
Speaker 1: it's great. Yeah, Brentford, Arsenal, Southampton, Chelsea, Manchester United, Brighton,

1058
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:31,400
Speaker 1: Aston Villa, Tottenham.

1059
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:34,080
Speaker 3: So yeah, we we have to bet first manager fired.

1060
00:49:34,160 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 1: I don't know.

1061
00:49:34,840 --> 00:49:36,279
Speaker 3: I don't think legal books are going to offer it,

1062
00:49:36,280 --> 00:49:37,880
Speaker 3: so maybe we'll have to we'll have to find our

1063
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:40,120
Speaker 3: way to sleuth it in. But uh, we are going

1064
00:49:40,120 --> 00:49:42,239
Speaker 3: to do our wonder goal trip to London, Yes, and

1065
00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 3: we're going to find a market where we can get that.

1066
00:49:44,080 --> 00:49:46,359
Speaker 2: That is that's how, that's how.

1067
00:49:46,400 --> 00:49:48,160
Speaker 3: What are the actual odds on that twelve to one?

1068
00:49:48,600 --> 00:49:52,280
Speaker 2: He was in the double digits BJ Christmas.

1069
00:49:51,840 --> 00:49:55,040
Speaker 1: Bet Southampton six to one to be bottom at Christmas.

1070
00:49:55,080 --> 00:49:58,680
Speaker 1: So the schedule actually matters this year for bottom at Christmas.

1071
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:01,360
Speaker 1: So we're gonna play sixteen man November twelfth is the

1072
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:05,280
Speaker 1: cop we're coming back on Boxing Day. Southampton and Fulham

1073
00:50:05,480 --> 00:50:08,239
Speaker 1: are the only two teams that are gonna have to

1074
00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:11,799
Speaker 1: play all Big six teams before the World Cup. The

1075
00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:15,760
Speaker 1: three teams that Southampton is not going to play before

1076
00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:20,680
Speaker 1: the World Cup, it's gonna be Brighton, Nottingham, Forrest in Bournemouth.

1077
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 1: That's a tough schedule when you don't have to play

1078
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:26,200
Speaker 1: those three teams. And it's a Southampton team that you listen.

1079
00:50:26,280 --> 00:50:29,399
Speaker 1: I think we were all touting them for relegation last year.

1080
00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:31,480
Speaker 1: They somehow, you know, went on a big stretch in

1081
00:50:31,520 --> 00:50:34,399
Speaker 1: the middle of the season survived. I mean we're in

1082
00:50:34,520 --> 00:50:37,560
Speaker 1: what year three to four of Hassen rule ball. I mean,

1083
00:50:37,600 --> 00:50:40,200
Speaker 1: this team just burns out so quickly from all the pressing.

1084
00:50:41,400 --> 00:50:44,000
Speaker 1: They made some signings this summer, a lot of young

1085
00:50:44,040 --> 00:50:46,040
Speaker 1: guys to try to maybe get more in depth, but

1086
00:50:46,520 --> 00:50:50,040
Speaker 1: Bros Is gone. He was a massive part of their attack.

1087
00:50:50,080 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 1: They're gonna roll with Chay Adams Adam Armstrong as their

1088
00:50:53,360 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 1: front two in the four to four two or whatever

1089
00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:57,839
Speaker 1: formation he's gonna switch it to. That's not gonna work.

1090
00:50:58,239 --> 00:51:00,360
Speaker 1: I mean that's maybe the worst striking to it in

1091
00:51:00,440 --> 00:51:03,920
Speaker 1: the Premier League truly. So you have that, and then

1092
00:51:03,960 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 1: you have that coupled with the fact that yes, if

1093
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:09,759
Speaker 1: you look at their goals allowed and basically in the

1094
00:51:09,880 --> 00:51:12,160
Speaker 1: XG allowed, you know it's about a ten goal difference,

1095
00:51:12,200 --> 00:51:14,279
Speaker 1: you know, sixty eight alloud off fifty eight expected. But

1096
00:51:14,880 --> 00:51:18,160
Speaker 1: I mean this team allows seventy one big scoring chances

1097
00:51:18,200 --> 00:51:21,160
Speaker 1: last year. That was the by far and away the

1098
00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:23,960
Speaker 1: worst market Premier League, more than Norwich of all teams.

1099
00:51:24,880 --> 00:51:28,080
Speaker 1: This team, especially with how bar their schedule is get

1100
00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:31,360
Speaker 1: leading up till Christmas, I mean, this could get bad

1101
00:51:31,960 --> 00:51:35,440
Speaker 1: really fast for Southampton. So I think six to one

1102
00:51:35,640 --> 00:51:38,359
Speaker 1: is a fantastic price. You know, three to one on

1103
00:51:38,400 --> 00:51:40,920
Speaker 1: them to be relegated. I think also is is a

1104
00:51:40,960 --> 00:51:43,000
Speaker 1: decent price. You know, five thirty eight has them about

1105
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:45,000
Speaker 1: plus two thirty to be relegated, so you're getting a

1106
00:51:45,000 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 1: little bit of value on that. And you know the

1107
00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:49,360
Speaker 1: second half drop off is real for them. I mean

1108
00:51:49,440 --> 00:51:52,879
Speaker 1: last year January first on fourth worst expect a goal

1109
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:57,400
Speaker 1: diferential unexpected points. So we'll see. I mean, Southampton's like

1110
00:51:57,600 --> 00:51:59,839
Speaker 1: their day is coming at some point if they can

1111
00:51:59,840 --> 00:52:02,640
Speaker 1: take with Hassen Hoodles. So I'm gonna bet that this

1112
00:52:02,840 --> 00:52:05,680
Speaker 1: that's gonna be this year. So, uh, six to one

1113
00:52:05,719 --> 00:52:07,880
Speaker 1: to be bottom of Christmas think is a fantastic given

1114
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:10,360
Speaker 1: obviously how difficult their schedule is going to be.

1115
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:13,399
Speaker 3: Are we too hard on Ralph? I mean I think

1116
00:52:13,440 --> 00:52:16,160
Speaker 3: we like that team's you just mentioned it. That seems terrible.

1117
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:18,279
Speaker 3: The fact that they were playing as well as they

1118
00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:20,040
Speaker 3: were at certain points last season I think is a

1119
00:52:20,040 --> 00:52:22,399
Speaker 3: credit to Hassen Hoodle. They just don't they just don't

1120
00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:24,680
Speaker 3: back him. I mean, they buy these terrible players, they

1121
00:52:24,680 --> 00:52:26,640
Speaker 3: buy a lot of cheap options and hope they become

1122
00:52:26,680 --> 00:52:28,880
Speaker 3: good players when they're young, and then then Hassenho just

1123
00:52:28,880 --> 00:52:31,520
Speaker 3: has them run around a bunch. I think Haston Hoodle

1124
00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:35,040
Speaker 3: would be second on my first manager fired list because

1125
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:37,600
Speaker 3: similar to Rogers, you just see that, you see the

1126
00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:39,840
Speaker 3: case you mentioned the tough schedule. They go into the

1127
00:52:39,840 --> 00:52:42,400
Speaker 3: World Cup bottom of the table. Is he coming back

1128
00:52:42,800 --> 00:52:45,640
Speaker 3: after the World Cup? I feel like that's that might

1129
00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:48,920
Speaker 3: be the inflection point for the first manager fired, Like

1130
00:52:49,480 --> 00:52:52,839
Speaker 3: who's going in? I think like that's an incredibly correlated bet.

1131
00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:55,279
Speaker 3: You know, you're looking at Southampton, You're like, Okay, they

1132
00:52:55,320 --> 00:52:58,560
Speaker 3: go into the World Cup in dead last, Lester's way

1133
00:52:58,600 --> 00:53:00,520
Speaker 3: down the table, neither of them going to have a

1134
00:53:00,560 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 3: ton of players at the actual World Cup. Could be

1135
00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:04,480
Speaker 3: a good time to say, hey, we got a month off,

1136
00:53:04,560 --> 00:53:06,279
Speaker 3: let's get a new manager in here. And so I

1137
00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:10,040
Speaker 3: think Southampton's also live for that and Hassenhodle, even though

1138
00:53:10,040 --> 00:53:12,000
Speaker 3: I think Hastondodle got hard done by here, but you

1139
00:53:12,040 --> 00:53:14,319
Speaker 3: mentioned I mean the team's terrible. If wod Prowse just

1140
00:53:14,400 --> 00:53:16,680
Speaker 3: dials back the magic a little bit and that runs out,

1141
00:53:17,080 --> 00:53:18,720
Speaker 3: they're in. They're in serious trouble.

1142
00:53:19,040 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 1: Ten goals off of like what five and change expected

1143
00:53:21,160 --> 00:53:21,560
Speaker 1: last year.

1144
00:53:21,719 --> 00:53:23,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, and like you can just say he's always going

1145
00:53:23,400 --> 00:53:25,000
Speaker 3: to be great at that, but there comes a time

1146
00:53:25,040 --> 00:53:27,279
Speaker 3: where he may just be okay for a season and

1147
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:30,080
Speaker 3: that might be enough to relegate them one topic, but

1148
00:53:30,120 --> 00:53:32,440
Speaker 3: the number is not there for me for relegation. I

1149
00:53:32,440 --> 00:53:34,600
Speaker 3: mean it's too short short.

1150
00:53:34,640 --> 00:53:36,560
Speaker 1: That's why. That's why I like Christmas six to one,

1151
00:53:36,680 --> 00:53:37,240
Speaker 1: just because.

1152
00:53:37,000 --> 00:53:38,960
Speaker 3: They were they were plus five fifty last year. I

1153
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:42,680
Speaker 3: think they're considerably similar. And they actually did blow more

1154
00:53:42,760 --> 00:53:44,719
Speaker 3: leads than anybody else last year. That's another thing that

1155
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:47,839
Speaker 3: should be noted. Like you could argue the way they press,

1156
00:53:47,880 --> 00:53:50,239
Speaker 3: they run out of gas maybe, but they also just

1157
00:53:50,280 --> 00:53:52,279
Speaker 3: dropped more points from winning positions than any team in

1158
00:53:52,280 --> 00:53:56,160
Speaker 3: the league last year. That tends to be generally noisy.

1159
00:53:56,719 --> 00:53:59,160
Speaker 2: The topic Christmas bed I like I teased this before,

1160
00:53:59,200 --> 00:54:01,680
Speaker 2: Alex first ten to one, twelve to one to win

1161
00:54:01,719 --> 00:54:04,400
Speaker 2: the title and tend to want to be top at Christmas.

1162
00:54:04,440 --> 00:54:05,080
Speaker 3: It is crazy.

1163
00:54:05,280 --> 00:54:07,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that it doesn't make sense. So I'll take

1164
00:54:07,800 --> 00:54:09,480
Speaker 2: Spurs at uh ten to one.

1165
00:54:09,560 --> 00:54:11,800
Speaker 3: I might I might have to sprinkle that, Yeah.

1166
00:54:11,400 --> 00:54:13,040
Speaker 1: What a great what a great Christmas that'll be.

1167
00:54:13,800 --> 00:54:16,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll tell you what we were top at Christmas?

1168
00:54:16,760 --> 00:54:19,640
Speaker 3: Like I think it was we were either topic, we

1169
00:54:19,640 --> 00:54:23,560
Speaker 3: were top. On December seventeenth, with in the Marie yeah. Yeah,

1170
00:54:24,440 --> 00:54:26,759
Speaker 3: and then they ended up in seventh, so.

1171
00:54:27,200 --> 00:54:28,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they were Christmas.

1172
00:54:28,520 --> 00:54:30,600
Speaker 3: Christmas can be misleading, you.

1173
00:54:32,160 --> 00:54:32,200
Speaker 2: Know.

1174
00:54:32,239 --> 00:54:35,280
Speaker 3: The last time Arsenal was top at Christmas, I don't

1175
00:54:35,360 --> 00:54:38,560
Speaker 3: know it was or they were top at New Year's

1176
00:54:38,719 --> 00:54:40,360
Speaker 3: They were top at some point in that week. The

1177
00:54:40,440 --> 00:54:43,640
Speaker 3: later year it was the laster year because the Spurs

1178
00:54:43,680 --> 00:54:44,399
Speaker 3: bottled the title.

1179
00:54:44,440 --> 00:54:46,040
Speaker 1: But yes, one of the great one of my greatest

1180
00:54:46,040 --> 00:54:49,279
Speaker 1: moments as an Arsenal fan was the Ozill free kick

1181
00:54:49,360 --> 00:54:52,000
Speaker 1: to uh Danny wellback for the header. Arsenal wins two

1182
00:54:52,080 --> 00:54:54,000
Speaker 1: one over Leicester. I thought they were winning the league

1183
00:54:54,160 --> 00:54:55,440
Speaker 1: and it didn't happen.

1184
00:54:55,719 --> 00:54:58,920
Speaker 2: No, Leicester won it Leicester one over Arsenal and Spurs

1185
00:54:59,640 --> 00:55:00,000
Speaker 2: I picked.

1186
00:55:00,120 --> 00:55:02,279
Speaker 3: I picked Roan Yery to be first manager fired that year.

1187
00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:04,960
Speaker 3: So maybe that means we were so bad the year

1188
00:55:04,960 --> 00:55:08,719
Speaker 3: before they were so bad the year before they pulled

1189
00:55:08,719 --> 00:55:10,920
Speaker 3: off a great escape the year before yep, yep.

1190
00:55:10,960 --> 00:55:13,920
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about the Golden boot market and

1191
00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 2: then we'll talk about other bets and we'll get out

1192
00:55:16,120 --> 00:55:19,319
Speaker 2: of here. Also, I should note that, like I said,

1193
00:55:19,360 --> 00:55:22,680
Speaker 2: we did a point total draft with Alon Shapiro from

1194
00:55:22,840 --> 00:55:27,319
Speaker 2: fml FPL podcast. So if we haven't touched on. We've

1195
00:55:27,360 --> 00:55:29,400
Speaker 2: touched on almost all the teams in the league, but

1196
00:55:29,440 --> 00:55:32,280
Speaker 2: there's a few, like everten that we haven't really sunk

1197
00:55:32,280 --> 00:55:35,399
Speaker 2: our teeth into yet. That podcast, which will come out

1198
00:55:35,800 --> 00:55:38,640
Speaker 2: on Monday, is a good one to listen to to

1199
00:55:38,920 --> 00:55:41,239
Speaker 2: kind of get our thoughts as a group on all

1200
00:55:41,280 --> 00:55:44,239
Speaker 2: twenty teams. But now with from teams to players, let's

1201
00:55:44,239 --> 00:55:47,840
Speaker 2: look at the Golden Boot. No surprise here, Early Holland

1202
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:51,160
Speaker 2: coming over to man City. Finally he is your favorite

1203
00:55:51,200 --> 00:55:54,000
Speaker 2: plus two seventy five to score the most goals, Harry

1204
00:55:54,080 --> 00:55:58,200
Speaker 2: Kane five to one, Most Sala five to one. Gabrielle

1205
00:55:58,280 --> 00:56:01,520
Speaker 2: Jaesus is twelve to one now at Arsenal, Darwin Nunez

1206
00:56:01,560 --> 00:56:03,879
Speaker 2: for some reason, as fourteen to one in his first

1207
00:56:03,880 --> 00:56:04,920
Speaker 2: season at Liverpool.

1208
00:56:05,920 --> 00:56:09,279
Speaker 1: These people, I mean, come on, Sonny.

1209
00:56:09,160 --> 00:56:13,600
Speaker 2: Is fourteen to one, Ronaldo fourteen to one. Our consensus

1210
00:56:13,640 --> 00:56:16,440
Speaker 2: pick is twenty five to one. I'll just leave it

1211
00:56:16,480 --> 00:56:19,440
Speaker 2: at that before I spoil it. Rahiem Sterling twenty five

1212
00:56:19,480 --> 00:56:22,720
Speaker 2: to one, Jamie Vardi twenty five to win, Julian Alvarez

1213
00:56:22,760 --> 00:56:25,480
Speaker 2: twenty five to one, Callum Wilson thirty five to one.

1214
00:56:25,520 --> 00:56:29,200
Speaker 2: Could he stay healthy? Rhiann Marez, Kevin de Bruyna, Luis

1215
00:56:29,200 --> 00:56:31,919
Speaker 2: Diaz and Kay Averts also thirty five to one. We'll

1216
00:56:31,920 --> 00:56:35,000
Speaker 2: touch on some long shots as well, but let's stop there, Anthony,

1217
00:56:35,640 --> 00:56:37,520
Speaker 2: Like I said, all three of us like one bet

1218
00:56:37,600 --> 00:56:40,160
Speaker 2: in that twenty five to one range. You're the Liverpool

1219
00:56:40,160 --> 00:56:42,960
Speaker 2: fan on the podcast, so we'll let you dive into it.

1220
00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:46,320
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, it's all about opportunity, right, and Diego

1221
00:56:46,400 --> 00:56:48,919
Speaker 3: Jotta had a lot of competition at his positions last

1222
00:56:48,960 --> 00:56:51,560
Speaker 3: year with Mane taking some striker minutes for me, no

1223
00:56:51,680 --> 00:56:54,719
Speaker 3: taking striker minutes, he did still get a decent amount

1224
00:56:54,760 --> 00:56:56,960
Speaker 3: of minutes, and when he was playing in those minutes,

1225
00:56:57,000 --> 00:56:59,920
Speaker 3: he was incredibly good. He was the fourth in the

1226
00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:02,640
Speaker 3: league and next year for ninety and I think he

1227
00:57:02,680 --> 00:57:06,040
Speaker 3: was getting a lot of shots. And now those minutes

1228
00:57:06,080 --> 00:57:10,480
Speaker 3: are gone for me, no, potentially likely and Mane being gone,

1229
00:57:10,600 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 3: they do bring in Darwin Nunez, but it seems to

1230
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:15,800
Speaker 3: me based on the preseason. You know, Klopp was talking

1231
00:57:15,800 --> 00:57:17,640
Speaker 3: the other day saying, look, you can't expect him to

1232
00:57:17,680 --> 00:57:19,600
Speaker 3: just walk right in and be at his top level.

1233
00:57:19,600 --> 00:57:21,200
Speaker 3: He's going to take some time to gel in, and

1234
00:57:21,240 --> 00:57:23,520
Speaker 3: I think that will definitely be the case. For him,

1235
00:57:23,560 --> 00:57:26,440
Speaker 3: especially in a system like Liverpool's. He's a little bit

1236
00:57:26,480 --> 00:57:30,800
Speaker 3: different from how the traditional Liverpool striker front three group

1237
00:57:30,880 --> 00:57:33,479
Speaker 3: kind of goes. He's not like a Louis Diaz where

1238
00:57:33,480 --> 00:57:35,919
Speaker 3: that was a much more seamless transition. But we've seen

1239
00:57:35,920 --> 00:57:40,520
Speaker 3: with Jota that Jhota fits generally what Liverpool has traditionally

1240
00:57:40,560 --> 00:57:42,560
Speaker 3: done better than Nuna's.

1241
00:57:42,600 --> 00:57:42,800
Speaker 1: Now.

1242
00:57:42,920 --> 00:57:45,080
Speaker 3: It doesn't mean that Liverpool won't change, and I do

1243
00:57:45,160 --> 00:57:47,520
Speaker 3: think Nunias in the long run will be fine. I

1244
00:57:47,560 --> 00:57:49,840
Speaker 3: know Bja's a little bit more skeptical and I understand why,

1245
00:57:50,160 --> 00:57:53,440
Speaker 3: but I'm buying Jhota as the main striker for this

1246
00:57:53,560 --> 00:57:58,200
Speaker 3: team with Sala and Diaz next to them. I don't

1247
00:57:58,200 --> 00:57:59,720
Speaker 3: love that he's not on pens, but at twenty five

1248
00:57:59,760 --> 00:58:02,760
Speaker 3: to given his goals per ninety record, given his actually

1249
00:58:02,840 --> 00:58:05,760
Speaker 3: per ninety record, I think he's a pretty good shoe

1250
00:58:05,800 --> 00:58:07,600
Speaker 3: in if he gets the minutes to be in the

1251
00:58:07,600 --> 00:58:09,680
Speaker 3: top five. So at twenty five to one, it's worth

1252
00:58:09,680 --> 00:58:11,120
Speaker 3: a shot for me. I also don't hit a Gabby

1253
00:58:11,160 --> 00:58:14,000
Speaker 3: jay Zus look, but the numbers not quite there for me.

1254
00:58:14,080 --> 00:58:15,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, it should be higher.

1255
00:58:16,680 --> 00:58:18,560
Speaker 3: If he was twenty five twenty five and one, I'd

1256
00:58:18,560 --> 00:58:20,920
Speaker 3: buy jay Esus, but fourteen to one, I get it,

1257
00:58:20,960 --> 00:58:22,960
Speaker 3: like he's the striker for Arsenal, but he's not gonna

1258
00:58:22,960 --> 00:58:25,280
Speaker 3: be on Pens and so you know, it's just very hard.

1259
00:58:25,640 --> 00:58:28,720
Speaker 2: One thing about Jota that I think this might be

1260
00:58:28,760 --> 00:58:30,240
Speaker 2: getting two in the weeds with a bet like this

1261
00:58:30,400 --> 00:58:33,160
Speaker 2: is he's so good in the air and the service

1262
00:58:33,160 --> 00:58:36,440
Speaker 2: on Liverpool is just ridiculous with Robertson and Trent Alexander

1263
00:58:36,520 --> 00:58:40,440
Speaker 2: Arnold as well, So he scores in a variety different way.

1264
00:58:40,440 --> 00:58:43,520
Speaker 2: He's great finisher and I don't see any reason why

1265
00:58:43,560 --> 00:58:48,480
Speaker 2: he wouldn't be kind of above dsh and Nunias in

1266
00:58:48,480 --> 00:58:51,920
Speaker 2: the pecking order right now, just he hasn't done anything

1267
00:58:51,960 --> 00:58:53,280
Speaker 2: to play himself out of that.

1268
00:58:53,480 --> 00:58:57,080
Speaker 3: So he's also versatile, like he could play on the

1269
00:58:57,080 --> 00:59:00,480
Speaker 3: wing if they go solid Jota Nunez too, if Diez

1270
00:59:00,560 --> 00:59:02,439
Speaker 3: is gonna come off the bench or you know, they're

1271
00:59:02,440 --> 00:59:04,280
Speaker 3: gonna play a lot of matches again, so there's gonna

1272
00:59:04,280 --> 00:59:07,960
Speaker 3: be a lot of rotation. So I think there's all

1273
00:59:08,040 --> 00:59:09,360
Speaker 3: kinds of bicygnles on the short time.

1274
00:59:09,720 --> 00:59:12,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have another long shot. I'll get to him

1275
00:59:12,200 --> 00:59:15,000
Speaker 2: in a sect with Bju. What are you looking at here?

1276
00:59:15,320 --> 00:59:17,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you, guys, Joe Tes twenty five to one.

1277
00:59:17,920 --> 00:59:20,360
Speaker 1: You guys already mentioned he plays he's gonna play the

1278
00:59:20,400 --> 00:59:23,320
Speaker 1: Formino central role would be I'd imagine that was Clop's

1279
00:59:23,320 --> 00:59:24,960
Speaker 1: gonna do. I think it'd be a massive mistake to

1280
00:59:25,440 --> 00:59:27,560
Speaker 1: just throw Nunias in there day one and just hope

1281
00:59:27,560 --> 00:59:29,160
Speaker 1: that he's going to be this out and out striker.

1282
00:59:29,240 --> 00:59:32,120
Speaker 1: He might eventually be that, but I mean, if he's

1283
00:59:32,120 --> 00:59:35,160
Speaker 1: playing in the central role for essentially the one, first

1284
00:59:35,240 --> 00:59:37,840
Speaker 1: or second best offense in the Premier League, that's gonna

1285
00:59:37,840 --> 00:59:40,680
Speaker 1: score you know, ninety plus goals, like as a team,

1286
00:59:40,760 --> 00:59:44,280
Speaker 1: like that's incredibly valuable. You know, he had three point

1287
00:59:44,280 --> 00:59:46,880
Speaker 1: two seven shots per ninety last year, only Kane Ronaldo

1288
00:59:46,920 --> 00:59:49,840
Speaker 1: and solid top of that, he was third in total XG,

1289
00:59:50,200 --> 00:59:53,760
Speaker 1: So you're getting essentially the third best pretty much the

1290
00:59:53,760 --> 00:59:55,600
Speaker 1: third best option in terms of you know, shots for

1291
00:59:55,680 --> 00:59:58,280
Speaker 1: ninety and XG at twenty five to one, So it's

1292
00:59:58,320 --> 01:00:00,120
Speaker 1: it's too good of a price to pass up. He

1293
01:00:00,160 --> 01:00:03,280
Speaker 1: also had a better ex cheaper shot than Rinaldo kanan

1294
01:00:03,320 --> 01:00:06,080
Speaker 1: Sala as well, so you know, like he already mentioned

1295
01:00:06,080 --> 01:00:08,160
Speaker 1: Anthy with money gone, it gives him a ton more

1296
01:00:08,160 --> 01:00:10,360
Speaker 1: breathing room. So I would assume he's the you know,

1297
01:00:10,480 --> 01:00:13,160
Speaker 1: central option in that for Meino type role for Liverpool,

1298
01:00:13,160 --> 01:00:16,160
Speaker 1: which will give him ample opportunity to win the Golden Boot.

1299
01:00:16,600 --> 01:00:19,040
Speaker 2: A couple of long shots. I like here, Phil Foden,

1300
01:00:19,600 --> 01:00:22,840
Speaker 2: there's a world where Erling Holland just it doesn't work,

1301
01:00:23,080 --> 01:00:26,080
Speaker 2: gets hurt. Yeah, something happened, right, Like, let's just say

1302
01:00:26,080 --> 01:00:27,320
Speaker 2: he just has an off year, and I still know

1303
01:00:27,360 --> 01:00:30,200
Speaker 2: that the wealth will still be spread in city with

1304
01:00:30,200 --> 01:00:33,760
Speaker 2: with Maras de Bruyna, Julian Alvarez, et cetera. You can

1305
01:00:33,800 --> 01:00:37,040
Speaker 2: find bets on like PFL Player of the Year or

1306
01:00:37,080 --> 01:00:39,400
Speaker 2: PFA Player of the Year two if you look hard enough.

1307
01:00:40,120 --> 01:00:42,000
Speaker 2: And I like voted in that market too, at a

1308
01:00:42,240 --> 01:00:44,160
Speaker 2: at A at a big price. I just think this

1309
01:00:44,240 --> 01:00:45,640
Speaker 2: is going this is going to be the year where

1310
01:00:45,680 --> 01:00:48,760
Speaker 2: he kind of steps into that echelon of players like

1311
01:00:48,840 --> 01:00:52,520
Speaker 2: where de Bruyna is and and Salons and so forth.

1312
01:00:52,720 --> 01:00:55,200
Speaker 2: So I'm just betting on a huge year from Foden

1313
01:00:55,240 --> 01:00:58,960
Speaker 2: now that Jaesus and Sterling have kind of moved out. So,

1314
01:00:59,080 --> 01:01:01,480
Speaker 2: like Anthony said, it's all bout opportunity. Do I think

1315
01:01:01,480 --> 01:01:03,040
Speaker 2: this is a great bet? It probably should be a

1316
01:01:03,040 --> 01:01:06,400
Speaker 2: little bit longer, but he'd be my favorite bet in

1317
01:01:06,400 --> 01:01:09,520
Speaker 2: this range. I don't mind Sokka either on Arsenal. So

1318
01:01:09,880 --> 01:01:11,640
Speaker 2: those are the two guys that kind of had my

1319
01:01:11,720 --> 01:01:15,120
Speaker 2: interest in this range. Bja, you have any lunch shots.

1320
01:01:15,400 --> 01:01:17,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna play Jared Bone at forty to one.

1321
01:01:18,400 --> 01:01:21,200
Speaker 1: I'm not a big fan of Skamaka, the striker they

1322
01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:24,280
Speaker 1: brought in. Antonio showed that even if he stays healthy

1323
01:01:24,320 --> 01:01:27,480
Speaker 1: for an entire season, he's not a consistent goal scoring

1324
01:01:27,480 --> 01:01:30,240
Speaker 1: threat for them. And listen what I'm betting on here

1325
01:01:30,240 --> 01:01:32,160
Speaker 1: at forty to one, and I do you know the odds.

1326
01:01:32,240 --> 01:01:34,360
Speaker 1: I would like fifty to one or greater. But I'm

1327
01:01:34,440 --> 01:01:36,160
Speaker 1: just a huge fan of Jared Bone. I think he's

1328
01:01:36,240 --> 01:01:39,640
Speaker 1: probably the best winger outside of any of the top

1329
01:01:39,680 --> 01:01:42,680
Speaker 1: six teams. There was a stretch for about a month

1330
01:01:42,760 --> 01:01:45,600
Speaker 1: last year where he scored five goals and five matches.

1331
01:01:45,640 --> 01:01:47,880
Speaker 1: He have like a point seventy five. Actually for ninety

1332
01:01:47,880 --> 01:01:49,920
Speaker 1: he was getting you know, three and a half shots

1333
01:01:49,920 --> 01:01:53,000
Speaker 1: per ninety. Now he's not gonna, you know, sustain that

1334
01:01:53,080 --> 01:01:55,000
Speaker 1: over a full season, but if he can do that

1335
01:01:55,120 --> 01:01:59,520
Speaker 1: for two, three, maybe four months, there is a scenario

1336
01:01:59,640 --> 01:02:05,360
Speaker 1: where he potentially just chose ballistic and really threatens for

1337
01:02:05,680 --> 01:02:07,800
Speaker 1: the you know, for the Golden Boot if some of

1338
01:02:07,840 --> 01:02:09,840
Speaker 1: the guys at the top, either they get injured or

1339
01:02:10,120 --> 01:02:12,240
Speaker 1: they're not playing as much because they're focusing on Champions

1340
01:02:12,320 --> 01:02:15,160
Speaker 1: League or whatever it is, where Jared Bone kind of

1341
01:02:15,200 --> 01:02:18,600
Speaker 1: just slides into that Golden Boot type discussions. So I

1342
01:02:18,640 --> 01:02:20,520
Speaker 1: think forty to one is a decent price on him

1343
01:02:21,000 --> 01:02:22,959
Speaker 1: to potentially win the Golden Boot.

1344
01:02:23,160 --> 01:02:24,600
Speaker 3: Who's gonna be on Pens for Arsol?

1345
01:02:24,800 --> 01:02:26,960
Speaker 1: It would be Socca Socca, I'd imagine, I mean, it

1346
01:02:27,040 --> 01:02:29,240
Speaker 1: might make it easy. I don't know. I mean, either

1347
01:02:29,320 --> 01:02:32,680
Speaker 1: one's fine. Soccer was the one taking him last year

1348
01:02:32,760 --> 01:02:33,960
Speaker 1: towards the end of the season.

1349
01:02:33,720 --> 01:02:36,640
Speaker 3: So I mean naturally it'd be Allba and then it

1350
01:02:36,640 --> 01:02:39,520
Speaker 3: was Laka, but then neither of them were playing. Yeah,

1351
01:02:39,760 --> 01:02:42,680
Speaker 3: that's an interesting question because, like you know, Socca does

1352
01:02:42,720 --> 01:02:45,439
Speaker 3: interest me if he's on Pens. If he's not on Pens,

1353
01:02:45,480 --> 01:02:47,160
Speaker 3: I have no interest. I just don't. I think there's

1354
01:02:47,200 --> 01:02:50,920
Speaker 3: too much sharing there. But yeah, Socca becomes interesting if

1355
01:02:51,320 --> 01:02:54,560
Speaker 3: you can manage to get figure out who's gonna be

1356
01:02:54,560 --> 01:02:56,520
Speaker 3: on Pens. But I haven't. I have to go look

1357
01:02:56,720 --> 01:02:58,520
Speaker 3: now through the friendlies. I don't know they've had a pen,

1358
01:02:58,880 --> 01:03:00,560
Speaker 3: but i'd be curious to see who took it.

1359
01:03:01,800 --> 01:03:05,960
Speaker 2: All. Right, let's wrap this puppy up. Like I said Monday,

1360
01:03:06,240 --> 01:03:09,720
Speaker 2: English League Point Total Draft with Alan Shapiro of the

1361
01:03:09,840 --> 01:03:14,040
Speaker 2: fml FPL podcast. Tuesday, these two fine gentlemen break down

1362
01:03:14,120 --> 01:03:18,800
Speaker 2: the other European leagues with their favorite bets across Europe. Thursday,

1363
01:03:19,160 --> 01:03:22,960
Speaker 2: we're back for a week one preview favorite bets. We'll

1364
01:03:22,960 --> 01:03:26,760
Speaker 2: go game by game, favorite underdogs, and we'll also sprinkle

1365
01:03:26,760 --> 01:03:29,160
Speaker 2: in some bets across Europe. But before we get out

1366
01:03:29,200 --> 01:03:31,360
Speaker 2: of there, just a couple other bets that we should

1367
01:03:31,360 --> 01:03:35,280
Speaker 2: touch on. Kulasewski most assists thirty three to one. Oh,

1368
01:03:35,680 --> 01:03:36,960
Speaker 2: don't don't hate that at all.

1369
01:03:37,680 --> 01:03:38,200
Speaker 3: That's fun.

1370
01:03:38,680 --> 01:03:41,080
Speaker 2: The attacking prowess.

1371
01:03:42,240 --> 01:03:43,680
Speaker 3: I think I may have to hop in there.

1372
01:03:43,880 --> 01:03:45,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, so, because he's.

1373
01:03:45,600 --> 01:03:47,120
Speaker 3: Gonna play thirty matches if he's.

1374
01:03:47,000 --> 01:03:51,440
Speaker 2: Helping, right with Charlison, Son and Kane, enough people to

1375
01:03:51,440 --> 01:03:54,840
Speaker 2: feed here. But an interesting thing about the most assists market.

1376
01:03:55,360 --> 01:03:58,040
Speaker 2: Salah won last year, Harry Kane won the year before.

1377
01:03:58,080 --> 01:04:02,040
Speaker 2: It's been the Golden Boot winners also one the most assisted,

1378
01:04:02,120 --> 01:04:04,160
Speaker 2: so it's it's a it's a weird one. Where you'd

1379
01:04:04,160 --> 01:04:04,920
Speaker 2: assumed that it would be.

1380
01:04:05,000 --> 01:04:06,720
Speaker 3: I mean, Caine and Solar are just really good.

1381
01:04:06,840 --> 01:04:08,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, but if you just would assume it would be that,

1382
01:04:08,560 --> 01:04:10,600
Speaker 2: it would be it would be you know, Trent, Alexander

1383
01:04:10,640 --> 01:04:13,320
Speaker 2: Arnold or Mane or they're running me right like it

1384
01:04:13,320 --> 01:04:16,680
Speaker 2: would be Sun if it was Kane. But yeah, I

1385
01:04:16,720 --> 01:04:19,480
Speaker 2: like I like Kulosovski thirty three to one, Caine sixteen

1386
01:04:19,560 --> 01:04:21,120
Speaker 2: to one. I didn't hate that either, but I would

1387
01:04:21,160 --> 01:04:23,800
Speaker 2: take the double the odds on Kolozewski. And like I

1388
01:04:23,800 --> 01:04:27,000
Speaker 2: said before, I like Palace without the Big Six at

1389
01:04:27,040 --> 01:04:29,840
Speaker 2: fourteen to one. If I had to pick a favorite

1390
01:04:29,880 --> 01:04:32,400
Speaker 2: bet before the season, it would either be lesser forty

1391
01:04:32,400 --> 01:04:34,280
Speaker 2: to one at bottom a Christmas or the Palace without

1392
01:04:34,320 --> 01:04:38,280
Speaker 2: the Big Sis six. So essentially to finish seventh fourteen

1393
01:04:38,320 --> 01:04:43,200
Speaker 2: to one, Anthony, what other bets are you thinking about? Here?

1394
01:04:43,400 --> 01:04:45,440
Speaker 3: Where'd you find the Kolosovski Because I'm gonna bet it.

1395
01:04:45,600 --> 01:04:48,240
Speaker 2: That's a bet three six five, Okay.

1396
01:04:47,960 --> 01:04:51,480
Speaker 3: I'm going to bet that because last season there's only

1397
01:04:51,520 --> 01:04:53,560
Speaker 3: one player in the league that played more than ten

1398
01:04:53,640 --> 01:04:58,720
Speaker 3: matches and had a better assist P ninety than day

1399
01:04:58,720 --> 01:05:00,760
Speaker 3: on Kolosovski, and he normally he plays in the league.

1400
01:05:00,760 --> 01:05:02,640
Speaker 3: It's Paul Paul. Remember he had like eighteen assists in

1401
01:05:02,640 --> 01:05:05,160
Speaker 3: the first two weeks and then he got hurt. But

1402
01:05:05,280 --> 01:05:09,480
Speaker 3: if Kulu's healthy, Harvey Barnes is up there. Actually Mosala

1403
01:05:09,960 --> 01:05:13,520
Speaker 3: was one two three, fifth behind reached James Matt Doherty

1404
01:05:13,640 --> 01:05:15,560
Speaker 3: was sixth. So that kind of just shows you like

1405
01:05:15,600 --> 01:05:18,280
Speaker 3: the Spurs thing. Uh, they do a lot of ball

1406
01:05:18,280 --> 01:05:20,600
Speaker 3: progression up the wings. And so I'm in Uncle Sevski,

1407
01:05:20,720 --> 01:05:22,000
Speaker 3: I love that bet now that you mentioned it.

1408
01:05:22,040 --> 01:05:22,360
Speaker 1: I had.

1409
01:05:24,120 --> 01:05:27,600
Speaker 2: H our pre wonderful days when when BJ was was

1410
01:05:27,600 --> 01:05:28,440
Speaker 2: was touting him.

1411
01:05:28,280 --> 01:05:33,280
Speaker 1: Brucelan baby Ruslan Melanoski. Yeah, yeah, you did get an assist.

1412
01:05:33,280 --> 01:05:34,280
Speaker 1: I think in the Euros.

1413
01:05:34,240 --> 01:05:35,280
Speaker 2: That's BJ's favorite.

1414
01:05:35,640 --> 01:05:41,840
Speaker 1: Yeah two yeah, yeah too, But then I think he

1415
01:05:41,880 --> 01:05:44,520
Speaker 1: had three in one game for the Swiss against the Turks.

1416
01:05:45,840 --> 01:05:46,320
Speaker 1: Didn't want it.

1417
01:05:46,400 --> 01:05:49,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, Bj, you have any other bets?

1418
01:05:49,400 --> 01:05:52,320
Speaker 3: Before he won a Golden Boon ticket at the YEA.

1419
01:05:53,120 --> 01:05:54,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, well we'll get to that when we talk about

1420
01:05:54,560 --> 01:05:58,560
Speaker 1: the bun. Yeah. I like on points bet you can

1421
01:05:58,600 --> 01:06:03,680
Speaker 1: do top Midlands Club, which is Lester aston Villa Wolves,

1422
01:06:04,080 --> 01:06:08,200
Speaker 1: Nottingham Forest. Astonville is not the favorite. They're plus one

1423
01:06:08,280 --> 01:06:11,480
Speaker 1: thirty five. Lester is the favorite around plus one ten.

1424
01:06:11,640 --> 01:06:13,440
Speaker 1: I don't get that at all. We've already talked at

1425
01:06:13,520 --> 01:06:16,640
Speaker 1: length about Lester. I mean aston Villa under Jerrard they

1426
01:06:16,680 --> 01:06:19,680
Speaker 1: were about an even expect a gold differential. They were,

1427
01:06:19,720 --> 01:06:23,760
Speaker 1: you know, mid table club. Lester, you know, cratered defensively.

1428
01:06:23,760 --> 01:06:25,680
Speaker 1: I don't see them getting any better. We've already talked

1429
01:06:25,680 --> 01:06:28,600
Speaker 1: about Wolves in their overperformance, and then Nottingham Forest, a

1430
01:06:28,680 --> 01:06:30,920
Speaker 1: team that I'm not is going to be probably near

1431
01:06:30,920 --> 01:06:34,080
Speaker 1: the relegation fight. So there's no reason why aston Villa

1432
01:06:34,120 --> 01:06:37,360
Speaker 1: shouldn't be a pretty heavy favorite to be top Millan's Club.

1433
01:06:37,400 --> 01:06:39,680
Speaker 1: So plus one thirty five. If you're looking for another way,

1434
01:06:40,160 --> 01:06:42,320
Speaker 1: if you're like, you know what you know, I don't

1435
01:06:42,880 --> 01:06:45,760
Speaker 1: really see Lester getting relegated. I don't see Wolves getting relegated.

1436
01:06:45,760 --> 01:06:48,080
Speaker 1: But I really kind of want to bet against them. Well,

1437
01:06:48,080 --> 01:06:49,960
Speaker 1: then just bet aston Villa to be top Millons Club

1438
01:06:50,000 --> 01:06:51,640
Speaker 1: at plus one thirty five. It's a great way to

1439
01:06:51,680 --> 01:06:54,400
Speaker 1: fade both teams. So that is my favorite one, and

1440
01:06:54,400 --> 01:06:55,840
Speaker 1: then I'll throw in Brent for twenty to one for

1441
01:06:55,880 --> 01:06:58,320
Speaker 1: Winter without the Big Six come. I'm just all in

1442
01:06:58,360 --> 01:07:00,680
Speaker 1: on the Bes. I love them so much. I love

1443
01:07:00,760 --> 01:07:02,600
Speaker 1: them so much, and I really do think they're gonna

1444
01:07:02,640 --> 01:07:05,880
Speaker 1: get that positive aggression, kind of similar to what Brighton

1445
01:07:06,080 --> 01:07:07,920
Speaker 1: kind of did this last year. I mean, it wasn't great,

1446
01:07:07,920 --> 01:07:09,360
Speaker 1: but they didn't finish ninth.

1447
01:07:09,160 --> 01:07:12,560
Speaker 3: So and that's just top plus plus nineties.

1448
01:07:13,000 --> 01:07:15,480
Speaker 1: Seventh place is just totally up for grounds right now.

1449
01:07:15,560 --> 01:07:17,480
Speaker 1: So I'll take the longest shot on the board that

1450
01:07:17,520 --> 01:07:20,000
Speaker 1: I think has the most realistic shot of getting there.

1451
01:07:20,480 --> 01:07:22,120
Speaker 3: We have not talked about Fulham. I want to talk

1452
01:07:22,160 --> 01:07:26,080
Speaker 3: about Fulham plus one twenty five top promoted team. Look,

1453
01:07:26,200 --> 01:07:29,600
Speaker 3: I came into this believing that Fulham was clearly better

1454
01:07:29,600 --> 01:07:33,959
Speaker 3: than Bournemouth, sorry, solidly better than Bournemouth, and clearly better

1455
01:07:33,960 --> 01:07:37,720
Speaker 3: than Nottingham Forest, like Miles better. And I understand this

1456
01:07:37,760 --> 01:07:40,160
Speaker 3: whole yoyo thing, the yo yo back, the yoyo fourth.

1457
01:07:40,720 --> 01:07:42,680
Speaker 3: But what Fulham did in the Championship last year was

1458
01:07:42,760 --> 01:07:45,720
Speaker 3: not what normal teams do to normal leagues. And I

1459
01:07:45,760 --> 01:07:47,960
Speaker 3: think when you look at their numbers from twenty nineteen

1460
01:07:48,000 --> 01:07:51,320
Speaker 3: to twenty in the Championship where they were pretty fortunate,

1461
01:07:51,840 --> 01:07:53,320
Speaker 3: they were good, they were good enough to come out

1462
01:07:53,360 --> 01:07:56,240
Speaker 3: but not like WHOA and then they were that same

1463
01:07:56,280 --> 01:07:58,200
Speaker 3: team then went to the Premier League and was not

1464
01:07:58,320 --> 01:08:01,240
Speaker 3: bad enough to be relegated. They were fifteenth ish and

1465
01:08:01,360 --> 01:08:04,080
Speaker 3: expected goal difference. They went down because it's some bad finishing.

1466
01:08:04,800 --> 01:08:08,240
Speaker 3: Then they went down and then they just destroyed the league.

1467
01:08:08,480 --> 01:08:10,880
Speaker 3: Now I understand they're not built for the prem you

1468
01:08:10,880 --> 01:08:15,000
Speaker 3: can make arguments on that, but they're definitely better than Bournemouth,

1469
01:08:15,000 --> 01:08:16,880
Speaker 3: who has not improved at all. It was worse last year.

1470
01:08:16,960 --> 01:08:21,160
Speaker 3: Fulham hasn't made many changes and the Forest gap we

1471
01:08:21,200 --> 01:08:23,120
Speaker 3: already talked about it. Forest may have gotten better, but

1472
01:08:23,160 --> 01:08:25,000
Speaker 3: they have not closed the gap. So I'm gonna take

1473
01:08:25,479 --> 01:08:28,000
Speaker 3: the plus one twenty five on Fulham to be the

1474
01:08:28,000 --> 01:08:28,880
Speaker 3: top promoted team.

1475
01:08:29,320 --> 01:08:31,599
Speaker 1: Yeah, to echo that point, because I had that note

1476
01:08:31,600 --> 01:08:34,000
Speaker 1: written down the last two times they went from the

1477
01:08:34,040 --> 01:08:37,599
Speaker 1: Championship to the prem In the Championship plus point three

1478
01:08:37,640 --> 01:08:41,080
Speaker 1: to five extrag differential for ninety twenty, seventeen eighteen plus

1479
01:08:41,439 --> 01:08:44,400
Speaker 1: zero point one three actually differential in nineteen twenty not

1480
01:08:44,479 --> 01:08:48,320
Speaker 1: even that good. One point three to three this past

1481
01:08:48,320 --> 01:08:50,200
Speaker 1: season to the Championship. I mean, it's just a dressing.

1482
01:08:50,240 --> 01:08:52,000
Speaker 1: And they actually made some I kind of like the

1483
01:08:52,040 --> 01:08:55,080
Speaker 1: signings they made. I like Solomon from Shaktar, you know,

1484
01:08:55,120 --> 01:08:58,000
Speaker 1: Pauline is actually a decent midfielder from Sporting so like

1485
01:08:58,040 --> 01:09:00,719
Speaker 1: I think they and Babu gives them a nice depth

1486
01:09:00,760 --> 01:09:03,280
Speaker 1: and experience a right back. I guess this is not

1487
01:09:03,360 --> 01:09:05,160
Speaker 1: that bad of a team. And there I agree with you.

1488
01:09:05,200 --> 01:09:08,200
Speaker 1: I do think they are way better than Forrest and

1489
01:09:08,240 --> 01:09:09,720
Speaker 1: Born with I'm gonna tell you on that one and

1490
01:09:10,120 --> 01:09:12,960
Speaker 1: ride with you on on Fulham you guys, I just didn't.

1491
01:09:13,360 --> 01:09:14,240
Speaker 1: It's a little too crazy.

1492
01:09:14,280 --> 01:09:16,120
Speaker 3: On It's like, oh there, yeah, you know what going.

1493
01:09:16,120 --> 01:09:19,240
Speaker 1: He's a huge fan of Marco Sila, that great manager.

1494
01:09:20,000 --> 01:09:23,479
Speaker 1: He's never ever just taken a totally down with him.

1495
01:09:23,479 --> 01:09:24,559
Speaker 1: He only brings them up.

1496
01:09:24,600 --> 01:09:29,120
Speaker 2: So you know, Silva and Scott Parker.

1497
01:09:29,920 --> 01:09:32,120
Speaker 1: Sold one to first be first manager. Fire is interesting.

1498
01:09:32,120 --> 01:09:32,840
Speaker 1: I'll say that too.

1499
01:09:33,280 --> 01:09:35,160
Speaker 2: I'm against them. I think that they're the worst team

1500
01:09:35,200 --> 01:09:38,680
Speaker 2: in the in the league by far, so I'll be

1501
01:09:38,680 --> 01:09:41,360
Speaker 2: back in their point total under. But you can listen

1502
01:09:41,360 --> 01:09:44,280
Speaker 2: to that on our point total draft, which will come

1503
01:09:44,280 --> 01:09:48,120
Speaker 2: out Monday morning. Then once again, like I said, Tuesday morning,

1504
01:09:48,280 --> 01:09:50,799
Speaker 2: b J and Anthony go through the other European leagues

1505
01:09:51,360 --> 01:09:55,599
Speaker 2: Thursday morning, we're back baby looking ahead at match week one,

1506
01:09:55,960 --> 01:09:58,439
Speaker 2: go through all ten games and Premier League, a bunch

1507
01:09:58,479 --> 01:10:01,519
Speaker 2: of games in Europe, give out a favorite bets and

1508
01:10:01,600 --> 01:10:04,360
Speaker 2: our favorite underdogs, and we'll wrap those up into a

1509
01:10:04,400 --> 01:10:06,760
Speaker 2: parlay that will lose. But man, it's just so good

1510
01:10:06,760 --> 01:10:10,920
Speaker 2: to be back. The prem is back Friday, August fifth,

1511
01:10:11,120 --> 01:10:13,639
Speaker 2: So for Anthony, Dbundo, b J Cunningham, you'll be hearing

1512
01:10:13,720 --> 01:10:16,680
Speaker 2: a lot more from us coming up in over the

1513
01:10:16,720 --> 01:10:19,800
Speaker 2: next Good God, there's a lot of soccer coming away

1514
01:10:19,800 --> 01:10:21,080
Speaker 2: because we also got the World Cup.

1515
01:10:22,240 --> 01:10:23,639
Speaker 1: Man, it's gonna be fun.

1516
01:10:23,880 --> 01:10:24,360
Speaker 2: It's a lot.

1517
01:10:24,400 --> 01:10:24,960
Speaker 3: I'm excited.

1518
01:10:25,120 --> 01:10:27,880
Speaker 2: Ten months a nice ten month marathon coming your way.

1519
01:10:28,320 --> 01:10:30,120
Speaker 2: This has been wonder goal. We thank you for listening

1520
01:10:30,479 --> 01:10:32,640
Speaker 2: and we'll see you guys on the other side of

1521
01:10:32,640 --> 01:10:33,040
Speaker 2: the weekend.