WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Jim Bianco & Scott Ladner

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>A single best idea. The news flow this August is extraordinary.

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<v Speaker 2>Of course, Ann Marie Horden in Anchorage. We'll have really

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<v Speaker 2>special coverage tomorrow from Alaska on a summit, or as

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<v Speaker 2>Tina Fordham said, maybe it's a non summit. We'll have

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<v Speaker 2>to see on that. Lindy Fox was wonderful with CFR

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<v Speaker 2>in Germany as well, but you know, it'll be interesting

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<v Speaker 2>day at tomorrow. It has been an interesting week as well.

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<v Speaker 2>One of the high points with Jonathan Ferrell's really informative

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<v Speaker 2>interview which let us see a snapshot, if you will,

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<v Speaker 2>a movable feast almost of how the Secretary of Treasure

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<v Speaker 2>he is thinking, this is mister Bessant, and he was

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<v Speaker 2>really quite something about cutting interest rates. There has been

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<v Speaker 2>a firestorm of response on Wall Street. Here's Jim Bianco

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<v Speaker 2>Bianco Research.

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<v Speaker 1>He basically said, any model suggests that that interest rates

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<v Speaker 1>should be cut by one and a half to one

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<v Speaker 1>and three quarter percent, I'll come back and say to

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<v Speaker 1>you that there's no model that says that if you

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<v Speaker 1>have a three percent interest rate, that you should be

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<v Speaker 1>cutting interest rates by that much. And John Author's authored

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<v Speaker 1>does something about that yesterday, and he'll talk more about that.

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<v Speaker 1>That the idea that interest rates should go below the

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<v Speaker 1>inflation rate when the inflation rate is this high is unprecedented.

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<v Speaker 1>It's never been there when it's been above three percent.

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<v Speaker 1>It should stay above the inflation rate by some premium.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's why I think that the current funds rate

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<v Speaker 1>at four and a quarter to four and a half

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<v Speaker 1>is very close to neutral. And that's why I was

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<v Speaker 1>saying earlier. If you want to cut interest rates and

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<v Speaker 1>the fedies looks like they're going to, you're not going

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<v Speaker 1>to get the desired economic growth outcome. You're going to

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<v Speaker 1>get an inflationary outcome.

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<v Speaker 2>Biancle there with one view. Let us remind ourselves that

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<v Speaker 2>eighteen months ago, almost two years ago, he was courageous

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<v Speaker 2>in calling for resilient inflation. He was very lonely in

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<v Speaker 2>that call. Since we taped that, we got the PPI

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<v Speaker 2>report and it was really something. I can't say enough

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<v Speaker 2>about the heat of the research notes coming out after

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<v Speaker 2>eight point thirty this morning, high point of the day.

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<v Speaker 2>We're going to rip up the script here. Scott Ladner

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<v Speaker 2>joined us. He has an incredible career in derivative mathematics

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<v Speaker 2>and in trading investment at WA Covia and now on

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<v Speaker 2>the Horizon and he came in and I said, what's

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<v Speaker 2>up and he said, you know his interns and AI.

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<v Speaker 2>This is riveting for every parent battling the modern technology

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<v Speaker 2>with their kids. On your children and the effect of

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<v Speaker 2>artificial intelligence Scott Ladner Horizon.

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<v Speaker 3>It doesn't look like it actually. That's that's sort of

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<v Speaker 3>the peril of AI right now that we're we're starting

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<v Speaker 3>to trying to figure out is like like how much

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<v Speaker 3>like how much below the surface are some of these

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<v Speaker 3>kids getting and are they using it as a crush

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<v Speaker 3>the sort of like hide how little they actually know?

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<v Speaker 1>You know?

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<v Speaker 3>This is like it's it's a real thing, and we're

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<v Speaker 3>figuring it out in real time, and it's like what

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<v Speaker 3>we've seen so far is it's a little bit scary,

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<v Speaker 3>Like I don't I don't love what I see right

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<v Speaker 3>now out of really really young ones like that twenty

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<v Speaker 3>four to twenty five year old. You know, they're still kids,

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<v Speaker 3>but they but they know enough still to use it

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<v Speaker 3>to be productive. But they're really young ones. I'm worried

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<v Speaker 3>right now they're using it too much, too much of a.

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<v Speaker 2>Crouch and Aside there for August and back to school.

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<v Speaker 2>We're on podcasts, We're on Apple, we're on Spotify, on

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<v Speaker 2>YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea