1 00:00:01,920 --> 00:00:06,200 Speaker 1: Live from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On. 2 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:10,040 Speaker 1: Biden lost a lot of goodwill, He lost a lot 3 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:12,719 Speaker 1: of the trust that was given to him. At the 4 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 1: outset of this year. The Democratic Party can't find its 5 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,480 Speaker 1: way back to the JFK days because it's so far 6 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:22,439 Speaker 1: over to the last Bloomberg sound On Politics, Policy and 7 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 1: perspective from DC's top names. People generally don't have a 8 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:29,639 Speaker 1: favorable view of Congress, but they do of their own Congressman. 9 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: It's got to be something that all fifty Senators, every 10 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 1: single fifty Senator can support. Bloomberg Sound On with Joe 11 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 1: Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. The slow drip of news continues 12 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:47,559 Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill as lawmakers in the House crawl their 13 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:50,560 Speaker 1: way to raise the debt ceiling and avoid of possible default. 14 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 1: This hour, we look across the valley to see what 15 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 1: lies ahead, with another fiscal cliff looming and big decisions 16 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 1: to be made on infrastructure and reconciliation. Will get the 17 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 1: latest from Bloomberg Government's Jack Fitzpatrick, who's on the Hill 18 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:06,560 Speaker 1: right now. We'll talk about the tricky path ahead for 19 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 1: Democrats and the overall Biden agenda as well with Greg Valier, 20 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 1: u S policy strategist at a g F Investments, and 21 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 1: later we'll fast forward to the mid terms with Bloomberg 22 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 1: business Week National corresponded Josh Green to talk about his 23 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 1: reporting on the risks for what he calls two bloodbath 24 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:26,679 Speaker 1: at least the chance for one. The panel today Bloomberg 25 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: Politics contributor Genie Chanzano, and Amy Tarkanian, former chair of 26 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 1: the Nevada State GOP, with us for the hour. Very 27 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 1: busy post market session obviously underway. It's finally about to 28 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 1: happen as well on Capitol Hill. Let's add another Lawmakers 29 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:44,120 Speaker 1: in the House are going to raise the roof on 30 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 1: the debt or so is the expectation, with a vote 31 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 1: on legislation to lift the debt ceilings through the beginning 32 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 1: of December, as we've been discussing since the end of 33 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 1: last week. Now it finally happens in the House, sending 34 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 1: a week's long saga in which Democrats tried to get 35 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 1: Republicans on board, and eventually, of course, Senate Minority Leader 36 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 1: Miss McConnell did just that. Not again, though, he says. 37 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 1: Congressman Jim McGovern, Democrat from Massachusetts, chairs the Rules Committee 38 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 1: in the center of all this today as they prepare 39 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:15,880 Speaker 1: to bring it to the floor, says he thinks Republicans 40 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 1: should be more honest about paying off debt from the 41 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 1: Trump administration. Let's understand this, we are paying Donald Trump's bills. 42 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 1: If you don't want to pay the bills, you shouldn't 43 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 1: have voted for the things that caused this debt to 44 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 1: begin with. Republican Congressman Michael Burgess, also serves on the 45 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:34,440 Speaker 1: Rules Committee from Texas, was in the same markup session, 46 00:02:35,200 --> 00:02:37,400 Speaker 1: and you probably will not be surprised to hear he 47 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 1: sees things differently. I don't know, watching this weekend and 48 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 1: looking at the panoply of manufactured crises that have come 49 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 1: about because of the actions taken by by this administration. 50 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:54,799 Speaker 1: I mean, the border with my state and a major 51 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:59,080 Speaker 1: country in Allied Mexico is in shambles. And so it 52 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 1: will not come as a shock to learn that Democrats 53 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 1: are preparing for a mostly party line vote, even though 54 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 1: it looks like only about half the House decided to 55 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:09,840 Speaker 1: show up here. Let's get the latest from Capitol Hill 56 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:12,959 Speaker 1: right now. Bloomberg Government Congress reporter and friend of sound 57 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:16,119 Speaker 1: On Jack Fitzpatrick is with us as we speak, Jack, 58 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 1: I hear this is a big day for proxy voting. Yes, 59 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 1: there there are going to be a number of proxy 60 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 1: votes casts today because they're supposed to be out of session. 61 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:28,399 Speaker 1: I don't have a final count of exactly how many 62 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 1: people are in and voting on behalf of someone, but 63 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:34,680 Speaker 1: they're using the process set up for the pandemics so 64 00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 1: that one member can vote for at least a few 65 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 1: other members who aren't here. And of course they didn't 66 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:42,480 Speaker 1: want to be in town in the first place for this. 67 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:45,000 Speaker 1: They cut it that close. So this is gonna be 68 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 1: not only probably around a party line vote, but a 69 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 1: pretty almost empty chamber compared to normal votes here. And 70 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 1: it's gonna be easy for Democrats to do this. Or 71 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 1: are they actually whipping votes this afternoon? Uh, well, it's 72 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 1: the it's the leadership position that they should support this. 73 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 1: I don't know how hard they're whipping votes, but you know, 74 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 1: it could end up being close. That they voted in 75 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:13,120 Speaker 1: the House on their Democratic proposal for a longer suspension 76 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 1: of the debt a debt limit, and it was almost 77 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:19,119 Speaker 1: exactly party line, and of course that is a close vote. 78 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:22,240 Speaker 1: They lost two Democrats on that one to moderates and 79 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 1: got one moderate Republican, Adam Kinzinger. So if that's uh 80 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:29,280 Speaker 1: sort of an indication of how this is going to go. 81 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:33,159 Speaker 1: It's gonna be a close vote, but probably pretty predictable 82 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:35,280 Speaker 1: because it's going to be close to party line. I 83 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 1: haven't heard anybody panicking that this isn't going to go through, 84 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 1: but given the narrow majority, uh, it won't be a 85 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:44,280 Speaker 1: total blowout. And then jack lawmakers, at least those who 86 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 1: came to Washington go home for a while here from constituents, 87 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 1: what kind of negotiations are going to be underway and 88 00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 1: either dealing with a long term fix here on the 89 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 1: data or getting into infrastructure and reconciliation, well on the 90 00:04:57,120 --> 00:05:01,120 Speaker 1: debt limit, very few negotiations. It's the tames. The Democrats 91 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 1: are still saying they don't want to do what Republicans 92 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 1: told them to do, which is addressed the debt limit 93 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:09,039 Speaker 1: through reconciliation, because that's a sort of a long and 94 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:11,279 Speaker 1: painful process that leads to a vote a rama in 95 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:15,040 Speaker 1: the Senate with unlimited amendments. Uh. So they're they're looking 96 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:18,480 Speaker 1: for alternatives. But you know, the underlying issue that led 97 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:20,359 Speaker 1: to this standoff is still there. And it could be 98 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 1: a tough one in December because there isn't really substantive 99 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:28,760 Speaker 1: negotiation on infrastructure and the main reconciliation bill. It's really 100 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 1: still a lot of Democrats looking to a couple moderate 101 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:36,159 Speaker 1: senators Senator's Mansion and Cinema, wanting them to be a 102 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 1: little more forthcoming and a little more flexible about where 103 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:41,479 Speaker 1: they could give and where they could meet other Democrats 104 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:43,560 Speaker 1: in the middle. But obviously that's been a slow and 105 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 1: painful process as well. So that's a lot of the 106 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 1: behind the scenes stuff that's coming with with progressives is 107 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:53,159 Speaker 1: every now and then showing some frustration with the moderates. 108 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:57,080 Speaker 1: Great reporting as always from Jack Fitzpatrick Bloomberg, Government Congress Reporter. 109 00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 1: We do appreciate it, Jack. We'll let you get back 110 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 1: to it. This is the man who's to be writing 111 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:03,400 Speaker 1: this up as it happens, the first draft of history, 112 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 1: as they say. And we want to bring in Greg Valier, 113 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:09,680 Speaker 1: us policy strategist at a g F Investments. Welcome back, Gregg. 114 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 1: It's great to have you. What what options do democrats 115 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:14,839 Speaker 1: have before we move on to the bigger stuff in 116 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:17,279 Speaker 1: dealing with the debt ceiling long term? Or is this 117 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:19,800 Speaker 1: something that simply gets kicked down the road again. We'll 118 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 1: be having this conversation in a year. I'm not sure. 119 00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 1: Nice to be with you. I'm not sure that it's 120 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:28,279 Speaker 1: going to be just a quick fix. I think it 121 00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 1: could be for a longer period of time. Most members, 122 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 1: most Democrats certainly want to have this extended through the election. 123 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:40,360 Speaker 1: So what they have to do, and I thought Jack 124 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 1: did a great job and setting this up, what the 125 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:46,760 Speaker 1: Democrats have to do is come up with a proposal 126 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 1: with the reconciliation process. It's very arcane. People's eyes glaze 127 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:54,760 Speaker 1: over when we start talking about this. But if they 128 00:06:54,760 --> 00:06:58,039 Speaker 1: can put this into a budget reconciliation bill, maybe with 129 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 1: some infrastructure stuff it, it could go for a year 130 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,159 Speaker 1: or so before we have to deal with this again. Well, 131 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:07,799 Speaker 1: we live for talking infrastructure and reconciliation around here, Greg, 132 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 1: you know that. So if that we're talking about the 133 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 1: same bill though right not everyone seems to be on 134 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:15,560 Speaker 1: the same page on this. To the Parliamentary and give 135 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 1: Democrats a path to do a separate reconciliation bill just 136 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 1: for for the death ceiling for government spending or do 137 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 1: you see that all being roped into the same big plan. 138 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 1: I see it all being roped into the same big plan. 139 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 1: And you know, when you look at the infrastructure stuff. 140 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:35,480 Speaker 1: The first bill one or so trillion dollars most people 141 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:39,679 Speaker 1: agree on. Mitch McConnell voted for it. It's for highways, bridges, dam's, water, 142 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:43,680 Speaker 1: WiFi stuff like that. The second bill obviously gets an 143 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:47,480 Speaker 1: enormous haircut. It goes from three point five trillion down 144 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: to I don't know, maybe a little under two. I 145 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 1: think that can make it as well. If those two 146 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,680 Speaker 1: can make it, I think in a big reconciliation bill, 147 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 1: they'll throw in the death ceiling as well. All right, 148 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 1: so let's talk about that haircut. Reality appears to be 149 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:03,600 Speaker 1: sinking in when it comes to the we'll call it 150 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 1: the soft infrastructure bill. The reconciliation plan has been held 151 00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 1: up by the likes of Senators Joe Mansion Kirsten Cinema, 152 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 1: neither of whom will accept a price tag, as we've 153 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 1: discussed many times, of three and a half trillion dollars. 154 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 1: Greg just alluded to that. Speaker Nancy Pelosi talked about 155 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 1: it today. The fact is is that if there is 156 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 1: are fewer dollars to spend, their choices to be made, 157 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 1: and members have said, let's get the results that we need, 158 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:32,600 Speaker 1: but we will not diminish the transformative nature of what 159 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:35,719 Speaker 1: it is, kind of acknowledging the debate that we've all 160 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 1: been hearing about for a pretty long time here, Greg, 161 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 1: I was in that briefing today with the Speaker, and 162 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:44,839 Speaker 1: the big topic was the letter Speaker telling her Democratic 163 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 1: membership in a letter coming off the weekend that it's 164 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:51,880 Speaker 1: time to make some tough decisions. She said her members 165 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 1: are giving her guidance, Greg that they prefer doing fewer things. Well, 166 00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:59,559 Speaker 1: that seems like an awfully important line as we try 167 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 1: to figure out whether they're gonna shrink spending on everything 168 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 1: short in the timeline or actually start removing limbs here 169 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:08,719 Speaker 1: and giving up on certain policies that we're supposed to 170 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 1: go inside this bill. I think it's the latter. Joe. 171 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:14,000 Speaker 1: I think they acknowledge that they've got to make some 172 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 1: significant cuts. At some point, you will get Joe Mansion 173 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 1: on board, and you'll get Kirsten Cinema on board. It'll 174 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 1: be for a lot less money, but I think they 175 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:25,400 Speaker 1: will agree. Now, what if I'm wrong, But if but 176 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 1: if this thing totally falls apart, in early December. I 177 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 1: still don't think the US will default. I think the 178 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:36,439 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve will do whatever it takes to keep US 179 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 1: Treasury paper whole. It'll be messy, but I think that 180 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:44,680 Speaker 1: Wall Street and business and the Fed will all come 181 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 1: together and insist that we get something done. I don't 182 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:50,960 Speaker 1: see default. This is gonna be a creeping up on 183 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 1: the holidays end of calendar year. Everyone's freaking out. All 184 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:59,400 Speaker 1: the stories are about the fiscal cliff kind of situation. Though. Yeah, 185 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 1: they they seemed to ruin everyone's holidays with great regularity. 186 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 1: If we're going to see that again, I think this 187 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:08,439 Speaker 1: could drag on. You know, we we haven't even talked 188 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:10,880 Speaker 1: much about the threat of a government shutdown. I mean 189 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 1: that was continued until I think December three. Still got 190 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 1: to deal with that, still got to deal with infrastructure, 191 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 1: and of course the death sailing. So this could come 192 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 1: right up to Christmas eve. So is it possible Democrats 193 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:25,080 Speaker 1: get Republicans to play along with with the clean government 194 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 1: funding abill at least keep that out of the mix here. Yes, 195 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 1: I think there's a good chance that they can get that. 196 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:35,600 Speaker 1: The death ceiling is tougher obviously because McConnell and all 197 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 1: of the Republicans will not raise it again, and I 198 00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 1: take him at his word on that. So it's going 199 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:44,559 Speaker 1: to have to be through this reconciliation process. The Democrats 200 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 1: don't like it, but I don't think they have many options. 201 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:49,560 Speaker 1: Here's the big question for me. Then to wrap this up, 202 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 1: we'll throw this at the panel coming up greg val year. 203 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:54,360 Speaker 1: If this does not come in at three and a half, 204 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:56,520 Speaker 1: let's say it's two point two, I'm just throwing a 205 00:10:56,640 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 1: dark Do Democrats still raise all the taxes they into anyway, 206 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:04,440 Speaker 1: or does that actually shrink the tax likes potentially for 207 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:08,319 Speaker 1: Americans in the next several years. That's a great, great point, 208 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:11,160 Speaker 1: and I think that you probably only need about one 209 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:15,199 Speaker 1: point five one point six in higher taxes. You can 210 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:18,559 Speaker 1: get that. Maybe they leave the controversial stuff alone, the 211 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 1: estate tax, you know, stock buy back. There's a lot 212 00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 1: of controversial things going after the very wealthy, and they 213 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:28,640 Speaker 1: do a small corporate tax hite, a small individual tax site. 214 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 1: I think that one of the stories least publicized is 215 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 1: the likelihood that the tax hit will be less onerous 216 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:37,880 Speaker 1: than we all thought a few months ago. This is 217 00:11:37,920 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 1: why people listen to Bloomberg Radio. Greg Valier, we appreciated 218 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 1: US policy strategist at a GF Investments, has been through 219 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 1: a few of these. This is Bloomberg So On with 220 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:54,720 Speaker 1: Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. So will it be the 221 00:11:54,760 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 1: incredible shrinking reconciliation plan as we just discussed with Greg 222 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:04,160 Speaker 1: Valier that could also mean shrinking tax hikes or will it? 223 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 1: That's why we have the panel with Bloomberg Politics contributor 224 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:12,280 Speaker 1: Jeannie Shenzano with US Today and Amy Tarkanian, Republican strategist, 225 00:12:12,360 --> 00:12:14,679 Speaker 1: former chair of the Nevada State g OP with US 226 00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:17,360 Speaker 1: for the Hour. Welcome to both of you. Gennie, what 227 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 1: do you make of this letter we're talking about from 228 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 1: Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the members, effectively a warning to 229 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:26,000 Speaker 1: her her caucus this will be smaller than many of 230 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 1: you probably wanted, and her members, she says, are giving 231 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 1: her guidance to do fewer things. Well, So, Gennie, what 232 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,720 Speaker 1: gets left on the cutting room floor? Well, I think 233 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:38,560 Speaker 1: that's the thousand dollar question, and you know, you know, 234 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 1: from my perspective, it is the moderates who would like 235 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 1: to do fewer things and do them well. Between that 236 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 1: and what you were just discussing with Greg about the 237 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 1: fact that we will see fewer tax hikes. It looks 238 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:55,280 Speaker 1: like the sign is that progressives are going to be 239 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 1: on the losing end of this. But I would just say, 240 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:01,720 Speaker 1: when I listened to Nancy pell See today, I heard 241 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:04,880 Speaker 1: something of a conflict between her letter and then what 242 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 1: she talked about today versus this shortening the timeline. So so, 243 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:12,600 Speaker 1: in other words, go to the timeline for money on 244 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:15,559 Speaker 1: each issue as opposed to getting rid of entire policies. 245 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:19,040 Speaker 1: That's right, and those are two completely different approaches. You 246 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:22,000 Speaker 1: shorten that timeline, you know, you can still have a 247 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:24,839 Speaker 1: lot in there, a lot of programs built, but they'll 248 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:27,320 Speaker 1: just be there for a shorter time, versus what the 249 00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:29,560 Speaker 1: moderates seem to be inclined to do, which is do 250 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 1: a few things that the Democrats could say, Look at 251 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:35,880 Speaker 1: we got you that you know, child tax credit, we 252 00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 1: got you paid family leave. Those are big programs that 253 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:42,680 Speaker 1: they could run on versus we through in the kitchen sink, 254 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 1: but we did it for four years. As opposed to 255 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:48,079 Speaker 1: ten Amy Tarkanian, what are Republicans prefer on this? If 256 00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:50,560 Speaker 1: you shorten the timeline on some of these issues. It 257 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:53,040 Speaker 1: could make them easier to kill or more difficult, I 258 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 1: should say, to renew in a couple of years time, 259 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:58,800 Speaker 1: as opposed to getting rid of entire issues. What makes 260 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:00,720 Speaker 1: it easier on the other side the isle as they 261 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:05,080 Speaker 1: look forward, I'm presuming to dismantling whatever gets passed. Sure well, 262 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:10,640 Speaker 1: Republicans would prefer to approach these UH topics, these issues 263 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:15,080 Speaker 1: that the Democrats would like to see passed um one 264 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 1: by one, as opposed to everything into one giant conglomerate 265 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:23,840 Speaker 1: of a bill UH. Now, Speaker Pelosi is actually approaching 266 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:28,240 Speaker 1: this um in a very intelligent way because, just like 267 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:32,160 Speaker 1: Jenie mentioned, you have the progressives that are trying to 268 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:35,520 Speaker 1: make the giant push and they want to have something 269 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 1: successful to take home with them for their reelection. And 270 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 1: it seems that the more moderates are now in control, 271 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 1: and that's not going to be the case. So they're 272 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 1: going to have to do some give and take, and 273 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:51,320 Speaker 1: so in order to get anything passed to take home 274 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 1: for for a trophy or when UM, they are going 275 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 1: to have to compromise. I know that can be a 276 00:14:57,760 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 1: dirty word, but they are going to have to compromise. 277 00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:03,360 Speaker 1: And even if Speaker Pelosi shortens the amount of time. 278 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:07,880 Speaker 1: Let's be honest here. Historically, once an entitlement program is implemented, 279 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:11,280 Speaker 1: it rarely gets terminated. It will just be extended. So 280 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:14,000 Speaker 1: this would actually be a win still in the end 281 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:18,240 Speaker 1: for the understood. Who's actually in control though, Genie, I mean, 282 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:21,840 Speaker 1: moderates are cranking down the price tag. But progressives lad 283 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 1: President Biden back to the idea of tying infrastructure and 284 00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 1: reconciliation together. They did. But you know, the real people 285 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:33,920 Speaker 1: in control here are Cinema and Mansion or any one 286 00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 1: of these senators. It just happens to be them. Those 287 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 1: are moderates. They are in control. And let's just say, 288 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 1: what is fueling this fear amongst progressives is this sort 289 00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 1: of idea that they have one bite at the apple. 290 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:47,320 Speaker 1: This is it. They have to go big or go home. 291 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:50,160 Speaker 1: That is realistic way to view this. But on the 292 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 1: other hand, you have moderate saying, if we can do 293 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:55,400 Speaker 1: one thing well and bring it home, we have a 294 00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:58,840 Speaker 1: chance to hold this house hold the Senate next time around. 295 00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 1: Those are both very very real predicaments that they're in 296 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:06,440 Speaker 1: and the viewpoints you can't argue with either of them. 297 00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 1: I want to ask you both about the tax question. 298 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:10,960 Speaker 1: Then if the price tag ends up being below three 299 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 1: and a half trillion dollars, should the tax hikes also 300 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 1: be smaller? Should there be entire tax hikes or tax 301 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 1: adjustments eliminated as part of this conversation because amy they 302 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:26,560 Speaker 1: won't be needed? Um well, I highly doubt that the 303 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:31,680 Speaker 1: Democrats will say that they won't be needing it toute yeah, um, 304 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:35,240 Speaker 1: but but I do believe that there needs to be 305 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:37,800 Speaker 1: some type of reform in face because you're still going 306 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 1: to have the loopholes for the rich. The Democrats like 307 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 1: to say, hey, we need to tax the rich, they 308 00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:46,840 Speaker 1: need to pay their for share. However, there are still 309 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:50,720 Speaker 1: right off that are allowed. There are still loopholes that 310 00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 1: are allowed, and so it just sounds like like we 311 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:58,360 Speaker 1: are doing something important and making it their playing field, 312 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:01,480 Speaker 1: when in reality it's it's smoking marriage. Isn't that a 313 00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:05,280 Speaker 1: political win for Democrats if they can actually pass this genie, 314 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 1: be able to turn around and say, you know what, 315 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 1: we didn't get everything we asked for, but we also 316 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:11,119 Speaker 1: didn't hike taxes as much as you worried. Whether that 317 00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:13,760 Speaker 1: was for families making over four hundred thousand dollars a year, 318 00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:16,119 Speaker 1: or even for businesses. Let's say we end up with 319 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 1: something or lower on the corporate tax rate. Well, the 320 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:22,920 Speaker 1: way Progressives in particular, but I think many Democrats will 321 00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:25,040 Speaker 1: look at this is you know, we heard this from 322 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders tax advisor. If you change the tax code, 323 00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 1: you know, you have that corporate tax hike, the individual 324 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:34,440 Speaker 1: tax hike, so on and so forth, but you do 325 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:38,399 Speaker 1: not change the fact that the incredibly wealthy are still 326 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:41,919 Speaker 1: effectively paying zero. They have not done their job, and 327 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:43,720 Speaker 1: so that is going to be the crux of this 328 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,399 Speaker 1: for Progressives. It's not enough just to say we didn't 329 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:48,400 Speaker 1: raise taxes or we did what we needed to do. 330 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:51,120 Speaker 1: If you still have, you know, the extremely wealthy not 331 00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 1: paying anything, that's a fundamental problem for most Democrats. There's 332 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:58,639 Speaker 1: no point to wait on the mid terms. With the 333 00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:04,440 Speaker 1: debate over the death ceiling, infrastructure, the sweeping Biden economic agenda, 334 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 1: all raging within the Democratic Party, it's already laying the 335 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:15,119 Speaker 1: foundation for two and Bloomberg business Week National political correspondent 336 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:17,840 Speaker 1: Josh Green gets to the heart of the story the 337 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:22,440 Speaker 1: tensions that exist now by bringing us back to the campaign. 338 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:27,960 Speaker 1: But Alexandria Costio Courts has spurns reporters efforts. He writes 339 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:31,359 Speaker 1: to sow division and falls behind Centrist Joe Biden on 340 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:35,399 Speaker 1: the calculation that they would fare better with one of 341 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 1: their own in the White House. Consolidate. Fast forward to 342 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 1: today and listen to Speaker Nancy Pelosi. We have some 343 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,200 Speaker 1: important decisions to make in the next few days so 344 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:53,199 Speaker 1: that we can proceed. I'm very disappointed that we're not 345 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 1: going with the original three point five trillion dollars, which 346 00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:01,439 Speaker 1: was very transformative. It's time to start slimming down and 347 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 1: making the hard decisions, she says. Josh Green is with 348 00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:11,040 Speaker 1: us now. So what happens to that early calculation. Josh, Well, 349 00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:13,000 Speaker 1: I don't think anybody knows. I mean, until the two 350 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:17,120 Speaker 1: parties can come to some kind of agreement. Um, there's 351 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:18,639 Speaker 1: really no clarity at all. I mean, I think that 352 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:22,640 Speaker 1: was reflected in Pelosi's quotes. There was everyone wrong though, 353 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:25,200 Speaker 1: that kind of one side would lean on the other. 354 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:28,439 Speaker 1: You've got a promise for infrastructure, if you give me 355 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:30,880 Speaker 1: this promise for reconciliation, and we all kind of prop 356 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 1: each other up. How come that hasn't happened. Well, it's 357 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:38,840 Speaker 1: it's a plan that worked well in theory that neither 358 00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:42,560 Speaker 1: side would get what they wanted unless they accommodated the 359 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:46,880 Speaker 1: other side. UM. And as I write in in Business Week, 360 00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:50,359 Speaker 1: one of the one of the driving forces behind the 361 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:54,199 Speaker 1: beliefs that this strategy would work was looking at the 362 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:57,080 Speaker 1: last two times that Democrats had a new president in 363 00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:59,639 Speaker 1: the White House and control of both houses of Congress. 364 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:04,520 Speaker 1: That was when they failed to pass hillary Care and 365 00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:06,960 Speaker 1: the Healthcare Plan, and then again when they failed to 366 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:11,640 Speaker 1: pass Obama's Cap and Trademan, and both times the Democrats 367 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 1: experienced a mid term wipe out after the failure of 368 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:17,680 Speaker 1: that legislation. So I think that history led a lot 369 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,639 Speaker 1: of people on both sides to believe, well, look, we 370 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:23,280 Speaker 1: may not know the contours of a deal quite yet, 371 00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 1: what the final numbers will be, what will be in there, 372 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:27,800 Speaker 1: but the one thing that we can all agree on 373 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,400 Speaker 1: is that we can't possibly fail, because that would be 374 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:33,080 Speaker 1: such a terrible outcome. And now, I think, as I 375 00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:35,919 Speaker 1: write in the piece, UM, I think Democrats need to 376 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 1: think hard about whether they'll be able to pull something 377 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:44,200 Speaker 1: out because the process, the strategy that Pelosi and both 378 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 1: sides had laid out, or each side would give something 379 00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,720 Speaker 1: to the other. UM. At least at this point has 380 00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 1: broken down. That was a bold calculation for a party 381 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 1: with such a razor thin majority, as you do point back. 382 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:02,159 Speaker 1: Josh Clinton demurred, referring to the healthcare bill, and Democrats 383 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 1: went on to lose fifty four House seats and eight 384 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 1: Senate seats. They fared no better in people forget losing 385 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:13,359 Speaker 1: sixty three House seats, Josh reminds us and seven Senate 386 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:18,080 Speaker 1: seats and what Obama aptletely characterized as a shellacking. Is 387 00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:22,920 Speaker 1: there a plan for that in the Obama White House? Um? Well, 388 00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:27,399 Speaker 1: the Obama White House so done, sorry, and there doesn't 389 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 1: seem to be a plan for it in the Biden 390 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:31,000 Speaker 1: White House. I mean that with those numbers would be 391 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:35,760 Speaker 1: shocking to this administration if it happened now, would it not? Well, 392 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,479 Speaker 1: I think the parties are more polarized now than they 393 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,119 Speaker 1: were ten years ago, and there are fewer swing seats 394 00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 1: at play. That would certainly be shocking if there were 395 00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:47,720 Speaker 1: losses of that magnitude. But I think the important point 396 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:49,520 Speaker 1: that you made earlier was that they don't need to 397 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,280 Speaker 1: be lost at that magnitude in order for Democrats to 398 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:55,600 Speaker 1: lose their governing majority. It is raised or thin as 399 00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 1: it stands now, and if you look at public approval 400 00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,840 Speaker 1: of Biden, if you look at public approval of Democrats 401 00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:05,960 Speaker 1: in Congress and the fact that uh, their their agenda 402 00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:09,639 Speaker 1: has blogged down, a lot of experts think that expect 403 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 1: Democrats to lose the House next year and maybe the 404 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 1: Senate to UM. I think one of the reasons driving 405 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:18,880 Speaker 1: that alarm if you talk to Democrats on Capitol Hill 406 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:22,240 Speaker 1: is that the Biden administration really doesn't seem to have 407 00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:24,960 Speaker 1: a clear plan for how they're going to bring this 408 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:30,520 Speaker 1: reconciliation bill about Biden as UH courted UH Kirsten Cinema 409 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:34,479 Speaker 1: and Joe Mansion, the two Democratic holdouts, It's still not 410 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,840 Speaker 1: clear at this state what exactly it is that they 411 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,480 Speaker 1: want and they don't want. And until there's some kind 412 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 1: of clarity, it's hard to see how these negotiations go forward. 413 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,800 Speaker 1: And therefore, as I argue in Business Week, I think 414 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:47,720 Speaker 1: we're really going to have to look at the serious 415 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 1: possibility that this entire thing falls apart the Democrats get nothing, 416 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:53,800 Speaker 1: And if indeed that does wind up being the case, 417 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:58,080 Speaker 1: what history says that that's gonna UH lead to next 418 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,840 Speaker 1: year when voters going to polls. Talking to Josh Freed 419 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,600 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Sound On, you point to the September twenty 420 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 1: two Gallop Pole, in which President Biden's approval rating fell 421 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:10,600 Speaker 1: to only the lowest point of his eight month presidency. 422 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 1: His approval rating among independents has fallen twenty four points 423 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 1: since January. To Scent, if you're a member of the 424 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 1: House or the Senate right now, Josh, does your fate 425 00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:28,320 Speaker 1: depend upon the Biden agenda? I think it does certainly, 426 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:31,000 Speaker 1: Or if you're if you're in a swing district or 427 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:35,520 Speaker 1: a competitive district. Historically, members of Congress, when they come 428 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:40,479 Speaker 1: up for reelection um and the president of their party 429 00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:43,320 Speaker 1: is in the White House tend to succeed or fail 430 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,680 Speaker 1: based on how the public feels about how that president 431 00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,520 Speaker 1: is doing, and for a variety of reasons, certainly not 432 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:53,760 Speaker 1: limited the rec atiliation bill, but the ongoing COVID surge, 433 00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:58,639 Speaker 1: the fights over the debt ceiling um, the inflation in 434 00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:01,159 Speaker 1: various parts of the economy. I think there's a general 435 00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 1: since out there among a lot of voters, including voters 436 00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 1: who voted for Biden um, that they had hoped that 437 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:11,119 Speaker 1: there would be a sea change in Washington after Donald 438 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:14,920 Speaker 1: Trump left the White House, and you know, right now today, 439 00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:16,600 Speaker 1: I think to a lot of people it feels as 440 00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,840 Speaker 1: though there hasn't been and they're expressing their disapproval in 441 00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:23,159 Speaker 1: these polls. Um I think that that actually those a 442 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:27,480 Speaker 1: reason why Democrats I might want to get together and 443 00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,840 Speaker 1: negotiate harder on this reconciliation. So maybe it's a motivator. 444 00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:35,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberry Business Week National political correspondent Josh Green really smart piece. 445 00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:37,040 Speaker 1: You can find it on the terminal in Josh, we 446 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:41,159 Speaker 1: do thank you for your insights. This is Bloomberg So 447 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:47,359 Speaker 1: Long with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. But what if 448 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 1: Democrats got it all done? Imagine a world with infrastructure, childcare, 449 00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:58,639 Speaker 1: expanded medicare, universal pre K, maybe free community college, all 450 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:02,000 Speaker 1: passing along with smaller than feared tax hikes to pay 451 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:05,399 Speaker 1: for it all. Could the conventional wisdom just be wrong 452 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,879 Speaker 1: Democrats end up adding to their majority in the mid terms, 453 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:14,120 Speaker 1: realizing it would turn history on its head. We turned 454 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:18,120 Speaker 1: back to the panel with Bloomberg Politics contributor, Democratic analyst 455 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:22,200 Speaker 1: Genie Chanzano, Republican strategist Amy Tarkanian, former chair of the 456 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:25,760 Speaker 1: Nevada State GOP. Genie if a mid term blood bath, 457 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:27,800 Speaker 1: as we just discussed with Josh Green, would be the 458 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,200 Speaker 1: result from getting nothing done here, why wouldn't the opposite 459 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,159 Speaker 1: be true and Democrats pick up seats by passing the 460 00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:36,000 Speaker 1: Biden agenda and doing what they set out to do. Well, 461 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:40,520 Speaker 1: they are probably listening and just loving your Rosie picture, Joe. Um, 462 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,920 Speaker 1: I just wondered, as one happened. If one happens, why 463 00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:48,359 Speaker 1: doesn't the opposite scenario take place, if things actually become law. Well, 464 00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 1: there's you know, the reality is certainly anything could happen. 465 00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:53,360 Speaker 1: But the best we can do is look back at 466 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,960 Speaker 1: recent history as you were talking about with Josh, and 467 00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 1: that doesn't seem to happen. Um. You know, and there 468 00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:02,560 Speaker 1: are several factors. I'll just give you one. We've just 469 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,280 Speaker 1: gone through a census. We've got about three quarters of 470 00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,359 Speaker 1: the state legislatures controlled by Republicans, who are in charge 471 00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:14,080 Speaker 1: in many instances of reapportionment. Those jerrymandering reapportioned districts will 472 00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:16,840 Speaker 1: have an impact. And since this is such a razor 473 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:20,480 Speaker 1: thin majority on the part of the Democrats, any small 474 00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:24,640 Speaker 1: changes like that could make a huge impact. Almost regardless 475 00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 1: of what you're talking about. You know, are they able 476 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:30,320 Speaker 1: to go big in terms of getting their their policies 477 00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:33,400 Speaker 1: agenda passed. So certainly it would help to get everything 478 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,919 Speaker 1: they want passed. UM, But that is a you know, 479 00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:40,720 Speaker 1: a big if, and certainly that's probably not going to happen. Ay, 480 00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,600 Speaker 1: I think Jennie just did your work for you. Yeah, 481 00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,320 Speaker 1: I know that that was great. Um. She hit the 482 00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,040 Speaker 1: nail on the head in a number of areas. And UM, 483 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:53,200 Speaker 1: I actually I looked into the breakdown of what's coming up. UM. 484 00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,840 Speaker 1: As far as the Senate, We've got thirty four total 485 00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,240 Speaker 1: feats that are up in this next election. Fourteen of 486 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:02,359 Speaker 1: those are Democrats, at twenty are Republican. And of course, 487 00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:06,800 Speaker 1: as we just saw in special elections, both Arizona and 488 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:11,000 Speaker 1: Georgia were flipped from red to blue UM, which was unexpected. 489 00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,840 Speaker 1: And if you go back even prior to that, you 490 00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:18,360 Speaker 1: had Illinois and New Hampshire also flips from red to blue. So, UH, 491 00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:20,680 Speaker 1: it's going to be interesting to see, since we're still 492 00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:23,720 Speaker 1: meca neck in the Senate, UM, so to speak, on 493 00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:29,120 Speaker 1: how how much uh this will affect uh the upcoming 494 00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:33,960 Speaker 1: elections as far as what is actually passed UM. Even 495 00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,800 Speaker 1: if it's just uh, portions of what the Democrat wish 496 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:42,040 Speaker 1: list is UM if it moves forward, will be interesting 497 00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:44,959 Speaker 1: because of all the other problems that are going on. 498 00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:49,000 Speaker 1: So if you do decide to raise taxes on top 499 00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:52,160 Speaker 1: of the inflation increasing UM and it's not going down 500 00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:56,399 Speaker 1: anytime soon, that's probably going to hurt Democrats. So they 501 00:27:56,440 --> 00:28:00,440 Speaker 1: need to be very careful on which are as they 502 00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:04,040 Speaker 1: decide to push forward in when they throw the spaghetti 503 00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,720 Speaker 1: at the wall, so to speak. And then as far 504 00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:10,480 Speaker 1: as in the House of Representatives, out of the four well, 505 00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:14,040 Speaker 1: we know they're all up, but Democrats lost seats in 506 00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:18,160 Speaker 1: this last election where the GOP gained. Now Democrats still 507 00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:21,639 Speaker 1: have a slight lead, but you know, it's once again, 508 00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:24,639 Speaker 1: I think it's going to be a toss up and 509 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:27,200 Speaker 1: a very close one if Flynn margin. And I think 510 00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:30,840 Speaker 1: Democrats know that, and that's why they are scrambling to 511 00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,600 Speaker 1: throw everything but the kitchen Saint. Yeah, of course, we're 512 00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:39,160 Speaker 1: talking about the economic agenda. We're talking about infrastructure and reconciliation, 513 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,480 Speaker 1: the Biden economic agenda as opposed to the social issues 514 00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:44,440 Speaker 1: that are also going to be a big part of 515 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,400 Speaker 1: the mid terms, and a lot of them are challenging 516 00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:50,000 Speaker 1: for the administration. I'm thinking about a lot of things 517 00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:54,120 Speaker 1: here from lgbt Q two covid as. I read the 518 00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,480 Speaker 1: headline on the terminal today. This was a big one 519 00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,360 Speaker 1: the news from Texas. I'd like to ask you both 520 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:04,480 Speaker 1: about Texas governor blocks vaccine mandates by private employers. Joe 521 00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:08,200 Speaker 1: Carroll writes, Governor Greg Abbott outlawed vaccine mandates in the 522 00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,400 Speaker 1: second largest US state, setting the stage for a showdown 523 00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:15,200 Speaker 1: with the federal government in Washington, Genie. When President Biden 524 00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:18,479 Speaker 1: was asked about the potential for legal challenges, if not 525 00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:22,320 Speaker 1: a legal mess following his executive order to mandate private 526 00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:26,160 Speaker 1: employers with a hundred employees are more require vaccines or 527 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:30,120 Speaker 1: weekly testing, he said, have at it. Is he going 528 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,480 Speaker 1: to get what he asked for? You know, I think 529 00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:34,720 Speaker 1: it's so interesting. I'm so glad you raised these social 530 00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:38,200 Speaker 1: issues because I, to a large extent, think that what 531 00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 1: Abbott has done in Texas actually helps the Democrats. What 532 00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:46,440 Speaker 1: kind of Republican conservative strategy is it to tell private 533 00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:49,360 Speaker 1: corporations what they can and can't do. That doesn't sound 534 00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,440 Speaker 1: like traditional conservativism to me. And you look at other 535 00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:56,280 Speaker 1: social issues like abortion, I have long said that the 536 00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:58,920 Speaker 1: best thing that can happen to Democrats in this midterm 537 00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:02,280 Speaker 1: is a Donald Trump keeps talking and they keep talking 538 00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:05,000 Speaker 1: about abortion and Abbott and these you know, some of 539 00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:10,640 Speaker 1: these conservative Republican governors keep acting against conservative values that 540 00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:15,239 Speaker 1: will help gin up turnout amongst Democrats. And you know, 541 00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,640 Speaker 1: you know Amy raised the Georgia flip from bread to blue. 542 00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:21,760 Speaker 1: I believe that that would not have happened had Donald 543 00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:24,000 Speaker 1: Trump not been on the top of that ballot. And 544 00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:26,960 Speaker 1: so those kinds of things helped Democrats, and I think 545 00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:29,960 Speaker 1: that is something that we need to keep in mind. Well, 546 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:35,320 Speaker 1: Jensaki was asked about this today that the Texas governor 547 00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,160 Speaker 1: in the White House Press briefing. Here's what she said, Well, 548 00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:42,520 Speaker 1: I know world renowned UM business, travel and health expert 549 00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,680 Speaker 1: Senator Ted Cruz has made that point, but UM I 550 00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:50,600 Speaker 1: wouldn't say that that is widely um UH acknowledged or 551 00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:55,720 Speaker 1: echoed by UM business leaders who have implemented these mandates, 552 00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:58,800 Speaker 1: by health experts who have conveyed the way to get 553 00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:02,160 Speaker 1: out of the pandemic is to keep ensure that we're 554 00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:05,120 Speaker 1: doing exactly the steps the President has announced, and we're 555 00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:09,160 Speaker 1: working to implement she's asked about Ted Cruz commenting on 556 00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:12,280 Speaker 1: on whether people were not returning to work in part 557 00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:15,520 Speaker 1: because of vaccine mandates. Kind of the opposite of what 558 00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:18,840 Speaker 1: Democrats have been saying. And then I find the headline 559 00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:22,720 Speaker 1: on the terminal American Southwest. The airlines here abide by 560 00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:26,480 Speaker 1: Biden vaccine order and defy Texas. This is a major 561 00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:30,040 Speaker 1: development here as American Airlines, the biggest US airline, number 562 00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:34,880 Speaker 1: four Southwest, will follow Joe Biden's mandate requiring that employees 563 00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:39,560 Speaker 1: be vaccinated, defying the order from the Texas governor blocking 564 00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:43,320 Speaker 1: such actions. Amy, this doesn't necessarily play well for the 565 00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:46,320 Speaker 1: governor of a state that does a lot of business 566 00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:49,480 Speaker 1: and is the hub to a lot of major airlines. 567 00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:53,160 Speaker 1: Here is Greg Abbott weighing into deep waters here or 568 00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:57,600 Speaker 1: does this play well for his own local politics? I 569 00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:01,720 Speaker 1: think both Um, both Americans Southwest have made the statement 570 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:07,720 Speaker 1: that basically divided administration's demands will supersede Greg Abbott's order, 571 00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:12,280 Speaker 1: and so they're going to move forward with the federal law. 572 00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:15,480 Speaker 1: And if Greg Abbott decided to take this to court, 573 00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:19,240 Speaker 1: then you know it will um have to unfold and 574 00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,320 Speaker 1: play out there. That what made it easy for him 575 00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:24,000 Speaker 1: to do this though, knowing that the federal mandate would 576 00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,280 Speaker 1: would blanket whatever he comes up with. You may as 577 00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:28,520 Speaker 1: well get the headline of the paper. I would think so. 578 00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,200 Speaker 1: Because let's touch back on the abortion issue, which I 579 00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:35,960 Speaker 1: think was a poorly written UM law, and I think 580 00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:39,719 Speaker 1: it was poorly written on purpos and it was a 581 00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:43,880 Speaker 1: way for Greg Abbott and those who are pro life 582 00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:46,640 Speaker 1: and I am pro life, but to kind of um 583 00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:50,880 Speaker 1: I guess, make their stamps, but then end up getting 584 00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:53,560 Speaker 1: it overturned in the end because it was so poorly written. 585 00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:56,200 Speaker 1: I mean, it's ludicrous to sit there and say that 586 00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:59,360 Speaker 1: you can go ahead and through private entities, you know, 587 00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:04,520 Speaker 1: or or prior that UM participants, uh for for you know, 588 00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:07,960 Speaker 1: taking somebody to get an abortion, and even somebody like 589 00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:11,200 Speaker 1: an uber driver. I mean, that's ludicrot um. So I 590 00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:15,000 Speaker 1: agree with Genie once again, and I'm sorry that we're not, 591 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:19,160 Speaker 1: you know, butting heads, but but I agree that that 592 00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:23,360 Speaker 1: was intentional that looked up my feeling, and I bring 593 00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:26,160 Speaker 1: you also agree that it helps democrats. We're bringing both 594 00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:29,520 Speaker 1: sides together here, Genie. I guess yeah, Amy's just serving 595 00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:31,880 Speaker 1: it right back to you here. This ends up playing 596 00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:35,040 Speaker 1: well for Democrats. Let's say this gets bogged up, bogged down, 597 00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:37,240 Speaker 1: I should say in court leading up to the mid terms. 598 00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:40,000 Speaker 1: Maybe that's something that Joe Biden and the White House 599 00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:43,560 Speaker 1: would like to see it is, and they can consistently 600 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:47,760 Speaker 1: make the case, um, that most thinking people realize, which 601 00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:52,400 Speaker 1: is that to beat the pandemic, people must be vaccinated 602 00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:55,120 Speaker 1: if they are able, and it's within their religious you know, 603 00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:58,280 Speaker 1: with its it's within their religion, you know, except with 604 00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:02,560 Speaker 1: those exceptions. And um, he needs to keep hammering that 605 00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:06,360 Speaker 1: because it is reckless to suggest otherwise, and most thinking 606 00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:09,359 Speaker 1: people understand that. And let's not forget there was a 607 00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:13,120 Speaker 1: time in which the GOP and Conservatives were friendly to business. 608 00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:16,279 Speaker 1: But you look at what Abbott is doing outlawing them 609 00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:19,200 Speaker 1: or saying they can't have a vaccine mandate, and you've 610 00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:22,480 Speaker 1: got you know, American and Southwest bucking up against that. 611 00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:25,960 Speaker 1: That doesn't bode well for moderate conservatives. And it is 612 00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:29,160 Speaker 1: the moderates on both the Democratic and Republican side that 613 00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:31,800 Speaker 1: will decide this race. So the more that you push 614 00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:34,560 Speaker 1: against independence and moderates, the better it is for the 615 00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:36,799 Speaker 1: other side. And in this case, it's better for Democrats. 616 00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,440 Speaker 1: Amy this is our final minute of the program. Here, 617 00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:41,239 Speaker 1: how would you have answered that question if you were 618 00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:47,799 Speaker 1: Jen Saki? Do vaccine mandates keep people out of the workplace? Um? Well, 619 00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:51,200 Speaker 1: it's actually that's a tough question to answer because it's 620 00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:54,840 Speaker 1: a yes and no. It should be like Governor Abbott said, 621 00:34:54,960 --> 00:35:00,520 Speaker 1: voluntarily and never forced. However, you know he's also he's 622 00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:02,680 Speaker 1: also a damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. 623 00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:06,360 Speaker 1: Because if you are a private entity, you are allowed 624 00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:10,799 Speaker 1: to ask of your employees, um certain certain things and 625 00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:13,040 Speaker 1: if one of them is a vaccine mandate, and that 626 00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:16,160 Speaker 1: is your job. I you know, for one, I find 627 00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:19,640 Speaker 1: it difficult to say as a Republican, just like Jeanie 628 00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:23,759 Speaker 1: said that as a private business, you you can't tell 629 00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:25,680 Speaker 1: me what to do. We well, it helps the blunt 630 00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:28,040 Speaker 1: the argument that Democrats have been making that nobody's coming 631 00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:30,239 Speaker 1: back because they're afraid of COVID. Ted crew says, no, 632 00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:34,040 Speaker 1: they're afraid of mandates. Hold that thought. We'll update you 633 00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:37,160 Speaker 1: on the debt ceiling tomorrow. God knows, we'll figure something out. 634 00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:40,759 Speaker 1: Here is we return on the fastest hour in politics. 635 00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:43,080 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg