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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named best betting podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: We're growing in job spect. We're setting it to cash.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kaban you want to pull,

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Speaker 3: and we are bunderway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: I'm your host, Chris Raybon, and this is your NFL

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Speaker 3: Week nine betting preview. I've joined, as always by my

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Speaker 3: Action Network colleague and the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky.

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Speaker 3: What's going on, Stuck? How was your week number eight?

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Speaker 2: It was pretty much a wash week. I mean we

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Speaker 2: just got aft all over all of our six packs.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I have the Raven somehow lose that game

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Speaker 2: with like three hundred more yards. You had Denvers about Rogers,

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Speaker 2: I mean you had Denver.

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Speaker 3: I mean not on the six pack, but I know

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Speaker 3: you took Denver, so congrats. But yeah, that was that

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Speaker 3: pissed me off.

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Speaker 2: Just brutle all the way around. You know, sometimes the

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Speaker 2: bounces don't go your way on a weekend, but overall

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Speaker 2: it was a wash. And moving on to this week.

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Speaker 3: And before we get into our Thursday night preview and

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Speaker 3: the Sunday six Pack where we draft our top six sides,

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Speaker 3: a couple of very quick reminders. Number one, if you

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Speaker 3: plant to bet on the NFL this season and have

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Speaker 3: it downloaded the free Action Network app What are you doing?

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Speaker 3: It's got betting tools, analysis for myself, Stucky and the

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Speaker 3: whole Action Network team and lets you track every bet

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Speaker 3: that you make. To download the Action Network app if

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Speaker 3: you haven't already. You can also follow our six pack

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Speaker 3: picks at the Sunday six Pack on the app, so

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Speaker 3: be sure to check that out. And number two, if

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Speaker 3: now using the link in this episode description. All right, stuck,

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Speaker 3: Let's get into it. Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 4: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 4: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 3: The Green Bay Packers six point favorites act the San

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Speaker 3: Francisco forty nine ers with a total of forty eight

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Speaker 3: and a half at bet MGM, the official provider of

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Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast. Running back Jamal Williams. Running back

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Speaker 3: AJ Dillon for Green Bay on the COVID reserve list,

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Speaker 3: Aaron Jones questionable. Early in the week, we got reports

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Speaker 3: that the team was pessimistic that he would play, but

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Speaker 3: he is listed as questionable he doesn't go. Running backs

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Speaker 3: would be Tyler Irvin, who's kind of a kind of

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Speaker 3: a Tyreek Cohen, more of a receiver than a running back.

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Speaker 3: Kind of guy. And Dexter Williams, who since he was drafted,

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Speaker 3: I don't know if the team is given him five

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Speaker 3: carries in a game yet. So Aaron Jones definitely a

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Speaker 3: situation a monitor for Green Bay. On the other side,

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Speaker 3: San Francisco, I mean, the injuries keep coming. You have

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Speaker 3: Jimmy Garoppolo out, you have Debo Samuel out, George Kittle out,

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Speaker 3: Kendrick Bourne that the number three receiver who is playing

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Speaker 3: number two for much of the year. He goes on

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Speaker 3: the COVID with I mean stuck. What do we make

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Speaker 3: in this game with all of these guys out or

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Speaker 3: questionable for both sides.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a hard game to cap. I don't know

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Speaker 2: if I'll end up betting it. I mean I always

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Speaker 2: look for ways to not bet there's no football. I

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Speaker 2: also still am trying to figure out, like what is

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Speaker 2: the difference between Jimmy G and his backup quarterbacks? Right? Like,

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Speaker 2: Sometimes I'm like, all right, I see Jimmy G and

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Speaker 2: I say, all right, this is a significant drop off.

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Speaker 2: Sometimes I see Jimmy G and I'm like, and Nick

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Speaker 2: Mollens looks really good sometimes and others disaster. Maybe like

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Speaker 2: maybe there's not much of a drop off, So that's

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Speaker 2: a tough thing to figure out here. But all the

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Speaker 2: injuries for san Fran, I mean it's crazy. And then

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Speaker 2: you lose Kittle for eight weeks, effectively ending the season.

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Speaker 2: Not only do you lose your best receiving option, I

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Speaker 2: mean he's a lead in run blocking too, you know.

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Speaker 2: And then you don't have Deebo Samuel, who they could

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Speaker 2: do so many things with and utilize his speed. You

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Speaker 2: don't have Kendrick Bourne. Now the defense is still riddled

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Speaker 2: with injuries across the board. Their backfield is banged up too.

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Speaker 2: But then you look at this matchup and shouldn't sant

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Speaker 2: Fran be able to run the ball on Green Bay?

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Speaker 2: That's how they dominated them last year? And shouldn't Kyle

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Speaker 2: Shanahan be able to cook up basically what we saw

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Speaker 2: all of last year and last week look at Dalvin

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Speaker 2: Cook did at this green Bay run defense. This green

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Speaker 2: Bay run defense is who we thought they were. Well,

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Speaker 2: I'm struggling to set a line here with all the

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Speaker 2: injuries all of the us. You know, green Bay be

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Speaker 2: without their top three backs. Green Bay has some offensive

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Speaker 2: line injuries, but I do think it's too high at six.

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Speaker 2: If that's what it is, I would lean to Sant

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Speaker 2: Fran here. I might not get involved in this Thursday

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Speaker 2: night game. It's a tough one to cap, but you

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Speaker 2: would think that Sant French should be able to move

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Speaker 2: the ball on the grounds. That's the Achilles heel of

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Speaker 2: green Bay And look green Bay is look does this

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Speaker 2: ever run out? They just every every week they play

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Speaker 2: teams who have like fifty starters out. But I do

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Speaker 2: think that it's a little bit of an overreaction mark.

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Speaker 2: It's still too high on green Bay. But tough, tough

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Speaker 2: game to capture on the short week if it even

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Speaker 2: gets played. But lean, I'd lean Sant Fran and potentially

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Speaker 2: the under as well, two teams that don't play necessarily

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Speaker 2: very fast.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the totals come down, I think it opened over fifty.

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Speaker 3: I would lean the under end San Fran as well.

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Speaker 3: Even when I adjusted San Frans line for which seems

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Speaker 3: like every week process. It's like, you know, adjusting San

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Speaker 3: France power rating for the hair long term injuries. And

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Speaker 3: you can find our power ratings and projected spreads at

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Speaker 3: actionnetwork dot com and in the Action Network Gap. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's like adjusting sand Fran for these long term injuries

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Speaker 3: and then adjusting them more because they always have these

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Speaker 3: other injuries that you know, affect the week in question.

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Speaker 3: And even after adjusting, you know, I still couldn't get

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Speaker 3: this line to where the market is, you know, not

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Speaker 3: even quote. I think it should be kind of in

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Speaker 3: that in that dead zone. Uh you know, I initially

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Speaker 3: had it at three. Uh, I think it. I have

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Speaker 3: it at four now, but definitely not six, which the

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Speaker 3: you know, which is a key number in which the

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Speaker 3: market has it at, but would also wean the under

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Speaker 3: I think it's concerning for san Fran that they lose

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Speaker 3: Born because he was playing well in play, you know,

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Speaker 3: filling in for Beebo and I Yuke at times. And

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Speaker 3: green Bay actually has taken away top receivers very well.

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Speaker 3: Uh yeah, we hire they. They do have some injuries.

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Speaker 3: It's King. Is King still out or is he back?

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure that's up in the air too. There's somebody.

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Speaker 2: It's a short week too, so it's hard to write,

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Speaker 2: but he makes it even tougher to project.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's a tough one. But I would worry

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Speaker 3: a little bit about san Fran's offense if they do

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Speaker 3: have to throw the football because Green Bay has been

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Speaker 3: excellent against its hot receivers all year. On the other side,

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Speaker 3: it's the San fran defense not quite the same one

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Speaker 3: is as we saw last year that just completely obliterated

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Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers. And I'll have something up at Action about this,

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Speaker 3: just kind of looking at Rogers and you know, has

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Speaker 3: he actually gotten any better or is it just that

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Speaker 3: he's facing some good matches. But San Francisco still is

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Speaker 3: number six in pressure rate at twenty six percent. The

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Speaker 3: thing is this year they're having a blitz a lot

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Speaker 3: more to get there, so they're blitzing at a top

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Speaker 3: ten rate, whereas last year they were blitzing at the

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Speaker 3: bottom five rate. So I think Aaron Rodgers can beat

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Speaker 3: the blitz if they do it that way, if they're

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Speaker 3: able to get pressure in this green bayal Wine is

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Speaker 3: still banged up. I think it's a little shakier, but

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Speaker 3: either way, i'd probably weed under. And I think the

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Speaker 3: line is too big in favor of Green Bay, but

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Speaker 3: probably wouldn't bet that either way, just with all the uncertainty.

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Speaker 3: So I think under the play I would lean towards

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Speaker 3: the most in this game. So there you have it.

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Speaker 3: Thursday Night Football. Check the Action app for the latest

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Speaker 3: Night Football. As a reminder, you must be twenty one

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Speaker 3: All right, let's get to the main event. The week

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Speaker 3: number nine Sunday six back.

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Speaker 4: Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 3: All right, stuck, first pick is worth two, others are

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Speaker 3: worth one. Total that we give in the next segment

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Speaker 3: will be worth one as well. You are up twenty

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Speaker 3: two eighteen on the year, and you have the first

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Speaker 3: pick this week. Where are you going?

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Speaker 2: All right, let's get very very ugly, and we're going

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Speaker 2: with the Dallas Cowboys plus thirteen and a half at

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Speaker 2: that MGM. But the contest doesn't matter. But there's a

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Speaker 2: chop around. You might get some Steelers like money. There's

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Speaker 2: some fourteens out there about fourteen earlier today. Look, you're

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Speaker 2: gonna either have it's ugly with the Cowboys. You're either

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Speaker 2: going to have Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush starting at quarterback.

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Speaker 2: Only upside compared to Ben Denucci. You know, he didn't

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Speaker 2: really do much last week. So I mean, you still

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Speaker 2: have a very young quarterback making his first collegiate start.

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Speaker 2: I just disagree on the drop off from Dalton to

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Speaker 2: these scrubs. I don't think it could have gotten any worse.

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Speaker 2: We've talked about that before. And the Dallas defense played

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Speaker 2: a little better, which I thought last week. You know,

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Speaker 2: they made those cuts and it was kind of an

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Speaker 2: inspired effort on a defense that's been just a disaster

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Speaker 2: all year long. But mainly I just think this line

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Speaker 2: is too high. I make it closer to ten ish

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Speaker 2: if it all depends on what you're going to grade

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Speaker 2: these quarterbacks at. But it's also just a miserable, miserable

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Speaker 2: spot for the Steelers. Third straight road game. Right They're

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Speaker 2: coming off wins at Tennessee and then at Baltimore. Their

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Speaker 2: offense still has major, major issues. We've talked about this.

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Speaker 2: You look at early down success rate, you look at

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Speaker 2: the explosive rates on the run game in the past game.

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Speaker 2: The offensive line isn't playing as well. Big Ben is

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Speaker 2: not who used to be. The offense is just not great.

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Speaker 2: I mean, well, they have two hundred and twenty total

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Speaker 2: yards against the Ravens last week, and this is your

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Speaker 2: classic Tomlin spot. Tom on the past two weeks. What

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Speaker 2: do you do? He won on the road as an

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Speaker 2: underdog against teams over five hundred in his career. Now

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Speaker 2: he's seventeen to five against the spread in that situation.

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Speaker 2: Number one out of all the coaches in our bat

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Speaker 2: Labs database, its two thousand and three. Well, on the

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Speaker 2: road is a favorite over sub five hundred teams, He's

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Speaker 2: dead last in our database. He's fifteen and twenty eight

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Speaker 2: against the spread. How about if we look straight up

235
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Speaker 2: on the road as a favorite versus a sub five

236
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Speaker 2: hundred team, just winning the game outright, he is twenty

237
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Speaker 2: five to nineteen. That's it, just winning the game. That

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Speaker 2: includes just five and four outright. As a double digit

239
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Speaker 2: favorite over teams under five hundred on the road, that

240
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Speaker 2: all that dead last in our database negative twenty one

241
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Speaker 2: percent ROI. How about on the road straight up as

242
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Speaker 2: an underdog against teams that are over five hundred against

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Speaker 2: winning teams fifteen and seven outright, which we've seen the

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Speaker 2: past two weeks, seventy percent ROI. That's number one. He's

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Speaker 2: won sixty eight percent of his games on the road

246
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Speaker 2: as an underdog against winning teams compared to fifty seven

247
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Speaker 2: percent on the road as a favorite against Louis. And

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Speaker 2: it goes back to Look, you could dig for trends

249
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Speaker 2: for days and come up with backing for a play,

250
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Speaker 2: but this fits one of the few narratives I really

251
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Speaker 2: believe in the NFL. Tomin is your raw raw coach,

252
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Speaker 2: and it's one of the strengths of Tomin. He gets

253
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Speaker 2: this team fired up. It's us against the world. But

254
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Speaker 2: when they're playing these losing teams on the road, you

255
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Speaker 2: see these flat efforts year in and year out. Ask

256
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Speaker 2: any Steelers fan, it wouldn't shock me if this game

257
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Speaker 2: is close late and the Steelers just come out completely flat,

258
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Speaker 2: you know it could end a disaster for the Cowboys.

259
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Speaker 2: But you're also catching fourteen two touchdowns in a game

260
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Speaker 2: with a total of forty two against the broken Steelers offense.

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Speaker 2: If you're looking for more trends, I mean bad teams,

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Speaker 2: teams that have won twenty percent or few of their games,

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Speaker 2: that are catching double digits. Since two thousand and three,

264
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Speaker 2: they're one hundred and fifteen eighty three and three against

265
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Speaker 2: the spread. That's fifty eight percent. November on there's sixty one,

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Speaker 2: thirty nine and three, it's sixty one percent against the spread.

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Speaker 2: So what's that say. I mean, especially later in the years,

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Speaker 2: you're just getting some value on these teams that no

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Speaker 2: one wants to back. And you have a team in

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys that's own eight against the spread. Only one

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00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:08,319
Speaker 2: other team has been own eight against the spreends of

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Speaker 2: two thousand to two thousand and three Raiders, I believe. Meanwhile,

273
00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:12,959
Speaker 2: the Steelers are six and one against the spread. So

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Speaker 2: you have this team that keeps covering and they've been

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Speaker 2: fortunate to do so in a couple of games, and

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Speaker 2: then you have a team that hasn't covered yet. I

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Speaker 2: think it's a great Bi loo Cell high spot in

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Speaker 2: the classic Tomlin fade spot. And ultimately, I think the

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Speaker 2: line is inflated. So I'll take the two touchdowns with

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Speaker 2: Dallas at home. It's ugly, but that's where we're going.

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Speaker 3: I mean, he's kind of summed it up. I'm just

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Speaker 3: glad you took it so I didn't have to because

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Speaker 3: it's it's it's the right play, but it's it's so ugly.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I have in bet Labs, you know, set

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Speaker 3: up here. I have, you know, trends for all these things,

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Speaker 3: and I have count them, seven different trends telling me

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Speaker 3: to bet the Dallas Cowboys and zero telling me to

288
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Speaker 3: bet the Pittsburgh Steelers, which is somewhat rare. Usually we

289
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Speaker 3: you have that many trends on a game, you just

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Speaker 3: have at least one on the other side. And that's

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Speaker 3: the thing about trends. Actually, we should point out like

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Speaker 3: the reason why we always you know, we'll mention some trends,

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Speaker 3: but we're gonna go into the matchup analysis. And that's

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Speaker 3: the basis here is because you can almost always find

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Speaker 3: a conflicting trend on both sides of a game, on

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Speaker 3: every game if you search long enough. But everything is

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Speaker 3: pointing to bet. Dallas teams just don't go this long

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Speaker 3: without covering. When I put this in my motto with

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Speaker 3: the two quarterbacks, I got a fifteen and a half though,

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Speaker 3: So like, the only thing telling me not to bet

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Speaker 3: it is my model.

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Speaker 2: Look the trends searching, it's just something I believe in.

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00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:38,280
Speaker 2: The trends, just back it up. Also buy low, sell

304
00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:40,960
Speaker 2: high spot, which I'm always trying to do. In the NFL, Steelers'

305
00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:44,440
Speaker 2: offense has been broken. I'm always a sucker for a

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Speaker 2: double digit home dog in the NFL, which have performed

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Speaker 2: well historically, and then I'm getting one two touchdowns of

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Speaker 2: total forty two. So hold your nose here taking the Cowboys.

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Speaker 5: And now back to the.

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Speaker 3: Show for my first pick and the second overall pick

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Speaker 3: of the week nine Sunday six pack. I'm going with

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Speaker 3: the New Orleans Saints plus five and a half acts

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Speaker 3: Tampa Bay and listen, Tampa Bay coming off kind of

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Speaker 3: an ugly game. They should be getting some pieces back

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Speaker 3: this week godwins practicing. Antonio Brown will make his debut.

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00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:21,879
Speaker 3: It looks like but this Saints team I think can

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Speaker 3: compete with anybody. They're probably not in those days where

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Speaker 3: they're gonna straight blow teams out anymore, but getting them

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00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:32,120
Speaker 3: is a five and a half point road underdog here.

337
00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:36,760
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay. Their offense, even with the additions, I think

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00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:39,879
Speaker 3: they'll still be a little bit shaky. They're number twenty

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Speaker 3: four in success rate with the pass on early downs

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Speaker 3: and number twenty one overall for the year. They have

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Speaker 3: had guys healthy, you know, it's not been like they've

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00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:54,800
Speaker 3: had guys out every week. So Tampa Bay offense shaky.

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Speaker 3: New Orleans even with all the injuries. Michael Thomas has

344
00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:00,399
Speaker 3: played in one game so far. New Orleans numbers seven

345
00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:03,679
Speaker 3: in early down success rate on offense. And then you

346
00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,600
Speaker 3: look at the spot and Sean Payton as a road

347
00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,600
Speaker 3: underdog thirty twenty one and two in his career, that's

348
00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:12,639
Speaker 3: a fifty nine percent hit ray against the spread. New

349
00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:16,720
Speaker 3: Orleans has been a very solid overall team, even though

350
00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:21,000
Speaker 3: they're not number one in DVLA like Tampa Bay. They're

351
00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,840
Speaker 3: number seven overall number seven on offense, eight on defense,

352
00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:27,439
Speaker 3: five on special teams. Very solid overall team. You have

353
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Speaker 3: Emmanuel Sanders practicing after being on the COVID, WITHT Michael

354
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:34,120
Speaker 3: Thomas practicing as well. We'll see if he actually makes

355
00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:37,560
Speaker 3: his return this week or not. After it looked like

356
00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:40,600
Speaker 3: Alvin Kamara was being held out, but he's gonna play

357
00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:44,760
Speaker 3: as well. So Saints should be relatively healthy at lea's

358
00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:47,240
Speaker 3: healthier than they've been these past few weeks. And I

359
00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:48,800
Speaker 3: think this is going to be a competitive game. You

360
00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:52,640
Speaker 3: also have a division matchup. Those tend to be tighter

361
00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:55,960
Speaker 3: than your average game. It's the second division matchup later

362
00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:59,240
Speaker 3: in the year, so also like the game to be

363
00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:01,960
Speaker 3: a little on the lower scoring side, which also helps

364
00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:05,120
Speaker 3: the dog. So taking the Saints in what I think

365
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,280
Speaker 3: is a good spot for them. I think they could

366
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,560
Speaker 3: keep this competitive with Tampa Bay and even they could

367
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:13,800
Speaker 3: win this game. And always want that when I'm taking

368
00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:17,840
Speaker 3: a dog, try to envision them be able to envision

369
00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:20,720
Speaker 3: them pulling out the upset, and I think New Orleans

370
00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:23,760
Speaker 3: can absolutely do that in this spot. So New Orleans

371
00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:26,000
Speaker 3: plus five and a half at Tampa number one pick.

372
00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:29,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean one of the things. I want to

373
00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:31,840
Speaker 2: get your thoughts on those actually before I share my

374
00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:36,520
Speaker 2: thoughts on the game. What are your thoughts on Michael Thomas?

375
00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:38,199
Speaker 2: Is there something else going on there? Is he going

376
00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:39,920
Speaker 2: to apply? Is he not playing the rest of the year?

377
00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:41,399
Speaker 2: I mean, what is what's the deal there?

378
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:44,000
Speaker 3: So I looked into this. I was kind of wondering

379
00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:47,320
Speaker 3: about this last week. Apparently what would happen for people

380
00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:50,280
Speaker 3: that don't know, is that he got in a fight

381
00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:53,040
Speaker 3: with CJ. Gardner. Johnson in practice punched him. But the

382
00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:56,639
Speaker 3: real issue is that he didn't apologize afterwards and was

383
00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:59,199
Speaker 3: talking back to the coaches and kind of just disrespecting them,

384
00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:02,640
Speaker 3: and so essentially Peyton had no choice but to suspend

385
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,280
Speaker 3: him because you just can't, especially a coach with the

386
00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:07,920
Speaker 3: kind of respect that Sean Payton Garner's like, you can't

387
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 3: have a guy, especially like the star of the team,

388
00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:12,720
Speaker 3: you know, disrespected him. So they held him out that

389
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:15,119
Speaker 3: game and then he picked up another injury when another

390
00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:18,240
Speaker 3: hamstring injury. At least that's what they say. He says

391
00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:20,919
Speaker 3: he was hurt the whole time, So there are conflicting reports.

392
00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:22,959
Speaker 3: I don't know. I think that the Saints are kind

393
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:25,800
Speaker 3: of getting it's kind of turning into an Antonio Brown situation.

394
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 3: It's like best receiver in the league putting up ton

395
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:31,040
Speaker 3: of numbers, but you're seeing it like in front of

396
00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:33,679
Speaker 3: our eyes kind of the it's getting to this dude's

397
00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:35,760
Speaker 3: head because we've seen it on social media with him

398
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:39,560
Speaker 3: going in at Devonte Parker over you know, some comments

399
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:41,280
Speaker 3: that had nothing to do with him in the offseason.

400
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:45,000
Speaker 3: I believe it was so just not a great situation.

401
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:47,880
Speaker 3: But with him on the field, the Saints are obviously

402
00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:50,160
Speaker 3: better than not. I mean they've get they've been getting

403
00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 3: by with oh I mean, I don't even know who

404
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,720
Speaker 3: they had out there last week, Austin Carr and in company.

405
00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:58,520
Speaker 3: They waved Tommy Lewis after a week Dwan Johnson. So

406
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 3: Sanders is back, that's big. Thomas still iffy, but he

407
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:05,119
Speaker 3: is practicing, so we'll see.

408
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:08,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't disagree with you. I think the line

409
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:11,320
Speaker 2: is a little bit inflated. The Bucks also on a

410
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:18,359
Speaker 2: short week. Godwin isn't a definite, but it's the Saints

411
00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:20,159
Speaker 2: have been Look, their defense has just been Yeah, I

412
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:21,400
Speaker 2: thought it was gonna be a lot better, but they're

413
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:23,320
Speaker 2: giving up like touchdowns of like ninety percent of red

414
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:26,800
Speaker 2: zone drives that should regress. They should have a bump

415
00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:30,000
Speaker 2: in their defense the rest of the way. The only

416
00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:32,480
Speaker 2: thing that does concern me here and this might get

417
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:36,919
Speaker 2: into your total later, is the wind. We could potentially

418
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 2: have twenty twenty mile an hour plus wins. Look Tampa

419
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 2: defense short pass as well. They defend the run well.

420
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:45,879
Speaker 2: Breeze doesn't really have a strong arm now, he's a

421
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:48,719
Speaker 2: shoulder injuries, you know with him practice, So what can

422
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:50,720
Speaker 2: New Orleans get anything down the field? I don't know,

423
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:53,320
Speaker 2: but they might be able to run the ball. Here

424
00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:57,760
Speaker 2: you saw the Giants with like nothing to run the ball,

425
00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:00,879
Speaker 2: and that's that's really when you I'd have started to

426
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:04,720
Speaker 2: see the impact of the loss of Vitavea. And they

427
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,119
Speaker 2: also may miss his pressure that he was able to

428
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 2: get up the middle, because that's really how you get

429
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:11,440
Speaker 2: to Breeze and you can really disrupt that Saints offense

430
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,960
Speaker 2: is if you can get pressure up the middle. Because

431
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 2: Breeze buck he's short, we know that. And if you

432
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,639
Speaker 2: can get if you could get pressure, generate pressure up

433
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 2: the middle, that can bother him a little bit. And

434
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:25,480
Speaker 2: then also he just gets rid of the ball so

435
00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:27,520
Speaker 2: quick it's a short passing offense, so it's not like

436
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 2: and they have good tackles, it's not like you're going

437
00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 2: to get much from the edges. So yeah, I think

438
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:33,879
Speaker 2: that I agree with you that that's where the value is.

439
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Saints are number four in adjusted wineyard is

440
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:39,879
Speaker 3: allowed that Bucks are number one, so the Saints can

441
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 3: Plaice and Rundee. Well, I think if there's kind of

442
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 3: a shaky weather situation, it actually it only helps that

443
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,159
Speaker 3: the Saints is a dog in this case. Unfortunately, it

444
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:51,439
Speaker 3: didn't help them, you know, as a favorite, you know,

445
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 3: especially past the three points last week. But uh hey,

446
00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 3: if Breeze is hurt, we have the uh the secret

447
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:02,720
Speaker 3: weapon on a bet for the Saints, jamis Jamis against

448
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 3: his old team and the revenge spot off the bench.

449
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,479
Speaker 3: He can throw it in any weather, so he cannot

450
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:08,919
Speaker 3: throw it, might throw it to the other team, but

451
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 3: he can throw it.

452
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 2: Yep, that would sure be interesting if he comes in.

453
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 2: Just hope he doesn't throw any pick sixes.

454
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 3: And before we move on, here's our coaches pep talk

455
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,359
Speaker 3: for this week. The pep talk this week comes to

456
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 3: us courtesy of George C. Scott in the nineteen seventy

457
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:29,159
Speaker 3: film Paton, and we're dedicating it to the Saints in

458
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,120
Speaker 3: the bucks. Give us some unders in this bad weather.

459
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 2: You want to see me in general? Oh yeah, Chaplin.

460
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:38,240
Speaker 6: I'm sick and tired of Third Army having to fight

461
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 6: the Germans and now this ungodly weather.

462
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:45,400
Speaker 2: I want a prayer, weather prayer, weather prayer, sir.

463
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:48,119
Speaker 4: Yes, let's see if you can't get God working with

464
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 4: us in this thing.

465
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:51,640
Speaker 2: And take a pretty thick rug for that kind of prey.

466
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:53,679
Speaker 3: I don't care if it takes a flying carpet.

467
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 2: I don't know how this is going to be received general.

468
00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 4: And I can assure you, sir, because of my intimate relations.

469
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,120
Speaker 2: With the all, if you write a good prayer, we'll

470
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:05,360
Speaker 2: have good weather. I expect that prayer within an hour.

471
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 3: Yes, sir, there was your coaches pep talk for the week,

472
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 3: high winds. Let's get this under hope you're.

473
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 6: Enjoying this great action network podcast. I want to make

474
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 6: sure you know about the Locked On podcast network Locked

475
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:21,440
Speaker 6: On as a daily podcast on your favorite team.

476
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:23,360
Speaker 2: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers.

477
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 3: You are locked onwn of the Dallas Marriage. He came

478
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 3: everybody to the Locked On Lakers podcast Let's Go.

479
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 6: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

480
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:33,080
Speaker 6: know your team better than anyone and give you the

481
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:35,919
Speaker 6: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

482
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:40,439
Speaker 6: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

483
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 2: For my second pick and the third overall of the

484
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,679
Speaker 2: Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Tennessee Titans minus

485
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 2: six against the Chicago Bears. Look, the Titans. I'm betting

486
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 2: this for a number of reasons. I don't believe in

487
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:01,920
Speaker 2: the Bears. Their offense is terrible and now they might

488
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 2: be without four starting offensive linemen. They went from their

489
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:09,439
Speaker 2: opening roster, they have COVID issues, they have to starters

490
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,239
Speaker 2: that are going to be out multiple weeks, one out

491
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 2: of seat, I mean, so it is a mess what

492
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,120
Speaker 2: the Bears offensive line looks like. You might say, though,

493
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 2: you know, the Titans don't really get pressure, which is

494
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 2: very true. And last week the Bengals had you know,

495
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,639
Speaker 2: all backup offensive linemen everywhere, and that didn't matter. They

496
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 2: didn't sack Burrow a single time. What's going to be

497
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:32,880
Speaker 2: different this week? Well, number one, there's a big drop

498
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:36,239
Speaker 2: off between Burrow and Nick Foles. Nick Foles hasn't been

499
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:40,719
Speaker 2: playing well. But most importantly, it looks like Tennessee is

500
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 2: now going to have a full stable off corners. Two

501
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 2: of the worst corners in the NFL this year, Jonathan

502
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 2: Joseph and Chris Jackson. Chris Jackson in the slot, Joseph

503
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 2: on the outside. I mean, Joseph has been just getting

504
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:54,880
Speaker 2: roasted in last week. He was horrendous, so they cut

505
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 2: him and they signed Desmond King, who could play in

506
00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 2: the slot. Is a little vulnerable deep, but that's not

507
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:02,199
Speaker 2: what the Bears are going to beat you. And it

508
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 2: looks like a Dory Jackson is going to come back

509
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 2: this week because their best corner by far, they have

510
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,680
Speaker 2: two roster spots. They have a roster spot open, and

511
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 2: they haven't said if he's going to play not, but

512
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 2: I think judging from the cottson cutting Joseph that he's

513
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 2: going to be back this week. He practiced last week.

514
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 2: So now you have the Dorri Jackson on the outside

515
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:20,400
Speaker 2: with Malcolm Butler, and now you have Desmond King, which

516
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,920
Speaker 2: is an enormous upgrade over Chris Jackson in the slot.

517
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,360
Speaker 2: So now you have a competent corner group and the

518
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:28,479
Speaker 2: Titans haven't been able to cover all year. It's one

519
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 2: of the reasons that on third down they're allowing teams

520
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:33,880
Speaker 2: to convert at sixty two percent of the time. That's

521
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 2: the most in NFL history. If the season ended today,

522
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 2: by the way, third down conversions across the NFL or

523
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 2: way up at road teams.

524
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:42,120
Speaker 3: Well yeah, because of the Titans.

525
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:45,880
Speaker 2: That well, yeah, the Titans the job. There's a bunch

526
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 2: of teams up there, but third downs in general across

527
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 2: and I think that has to do some with noise.

528
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 2: If you look at road teams specifically, it's up you know,

529
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:54,160
Speaker 2: the third. The Titans third down defense has been bad,

530
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,400
Speaker 2: but they haven't been able to cover anybody. And they're

531
00:26:56,440 --> 00:27:00,200
Speaker 2: playing a Bears offense that is converting third down at

532
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 2: thirty four point eight six percent. That's only better than

533
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 2: the Jets. It's thirty first the NFL. But what I

534
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 2: think most importantly is now that the Titans have their corners,

535
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 2: Rabel will be able to blitz and he has been

536
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 2: to be able to do that. They've just been sitting

537
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 2: back because their corners can covered. I disagree with that,

538
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 2: but he just couldn't trust his corners. Now, if you

539
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:17,919
Speaker 2: can trust your corners.

540
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 3: Actually wanted to get your thoughts on this because I

541
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:23,399
Speaker 3: came across this information and something that it hasn't been

542
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:28,399
Speaker 3: talked about enough. But Rabel, Remember Dean pas is gone now,

543
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 3: Rabel is his own defensive coordinator and didn't hire another one.

544
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 3: I just wondered if you think that is playing into

545
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:37,159
Speaker 3: this defense, because remember, I think we talked about it

546
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:40,639
Speaker 3: in our last week's show. Like Tennessee's defense until this year,

547
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:44,480
Speaker 3: they found a way kind of with okay talent to

548
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:47,199
Speaker 3: be pretty good in points allowed, near the top of

549
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 3: the league two years in a row. So I just

550
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:52,479
Speaker 3: wonder if you had any thoughts on kind of Rabel

551
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 3: taking over in that spot.

552
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean one of the things piece I think

553
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 2: this year it's been more personal than anything in the

554
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,639
Speaker 2: all season. They lack edge rush, so they tried to

555
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:03,880
Speaker 2: sign Vic Bezadet, didn't work out from the start, even

556
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:05,960
Speaker 2: from camp, and he just got cut and then they

557
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 2: signed Clowney. He's been He's definitely not the clowning of

558
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:10,920
Speaker 2: old so they're not generating much of an Edgruss. But

559
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 2: one of the things you got with DPS, he loved

560
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 2: the blitz, but this year Raber hasn't really been doing that.

561
00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:18,120
Speaker 2: He's been disguising blitzes and dropping back, and I think

562
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 2: a lot of that is just personnel with all of

563
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:23,479
Speaker 2: the secondary issues, especially a Dory Jackson, like the difference

564
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:28,159
Speaker 2: between their secondary play when Dorriy Jackson really started to

565
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 2: come on versus before he did his night and day

566
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 2: and he's been hurt. You know, you have Chris Jackson

567
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 2: playing in the slot. Logan Ryan not great, but he

568
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 2: was at least knew what he was doing out there

569
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 2: in the slot last year. So now I think you

570
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 2: finally have you know, Dez King and Dorry Jackson and

571
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 2: Malcolm Butler, so I think you'll see more blitzing here.

572
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:49,560
Speaker 2: The Bears defense has been keeping them in games they're off.

573
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 2: It's been miserable across the board. They're number one on

574
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 2: third down, they're number one in the red zone. But

575
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 2: the Titans, we know, are elite in the red zone.

576
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 2: So I think that watches out what the Bears have

577
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 2: been doing when when they have getting up drives, they've

578
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 2: been shutting teams down in the red zone. But you

579
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 2: can't really do that against the Titans. We know all

580
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 2: bad the Bears offenses, and you know Bears offense also

581
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:11,160
Speaker 2: is thirtieth in red zone offense just across the board.

582
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 2: It's terrible. So I like the minus six. I think

583
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:15,760
Speaker 2: they went by a touchdown plus here on a nice

584
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 2: bounce back after two straight losses.

585
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, and at least if you get to six, you know,

586
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 3: you get that insurance because Goskowski, man, I mean that's

587
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 3: I feel like Gostkowski makes me more nervous than the

588
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 3: than the defense. But I agree. I think this is

589
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 3: a good spot for the Titans. They're gonna be with

590
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 3: outscore most teams, and simply because like you said, they

591
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 3: can finish drives. That defense has been so bad that

592
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 3: it can only get better from here. And uh yeah,

593
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 3: I think with the personnel kind of adjustments, you could

594
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 3: tell that they're kind of at their wit ten and

595
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 3: they getting they should be getting some guys back at

596
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 3: the right time. They cut some guys king will help.

597
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 3: So yeah, I like the Titans as well. I don't

598
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 3: tell you what to do with your money, don't fucking

599
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 3: tell me what to do with mine.

600
00:29:56,560 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 1: Okay, instantly, I regret saying that that was a horrible

601
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 1: thing to say.

602
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 2: I love y'all very much.

603
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 3: For the number four pick and my second pick of

604
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 3: the Week nine Sunday six Pack going with the Kansas

605
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 3: City Chiefs minus ten and a half in arrowhead against

606
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 3: the Carolina Panthers. Listen, the Panthers have been playing well

607
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 3: this year. They've been keeping games close, but we're starting

608
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 3: to see them come back down to earth. That Falcons game,

609
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,239
Speaker 3: I think was a perfect example of a team that

610
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 3: they should have been able to kind of beat, I

611
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 3: would say, and they weren't able to do it. They

612
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 3: weren't even really that competitive outside of a kind of

613
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 3: a what was it a Flea flick or the Curtis Samuel.

614
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 3: They got some injury, bad luck. I think Bridgewater was

615
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 3: out for a series or something. But this Panther team,

616
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 3: I think, as you're getting more film on them, and

617
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 3: I know McCaffrey's coming back, which will help, but you're

618
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 3: getting more film on them, I think it's it's just

619
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 3: tough for them with the talent they have on defense

620
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 3: to hang around in games and then on offense. You know, McCaffrey,

621
00:30:56,600 --> 00:31:00,240
Speaker 3: that's great, but Bridgewater is still what he is. He's

622
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 3: a guy that he's not going to necessarily lose you games,

623
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 3: and that's why he's so good at covering against the

624
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 3: spread or a has been. But that's going to come

625
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 3: back down to earth eventually too, and I think it

626
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 3: does this week against these Chiefs. Listen, Mahomes is still

627
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 3: playing at an MVP level the Chiefs. You know, I

628
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 3: think that stretch they went through early in the year.

629
00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:20,960
Speaker 3: They played the Chargers, and the Chargers just kind of

630
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 3: sat back and didn't with them, which is probably what

631
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 3: Carolina will do. But you know, sat back then. You know,

632
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 3: they had some matchups where they had to kind of

633
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 3: overcome that strategy, and then they played the Jets, who

634
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 3: then they play Fangio and they kind of do it

635
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 3: on defense, and then they play the Jets where they

636
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 3: have to throw it around because they have a good

637
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 3: run defense. Everyone knows you can run on Casey. So

638
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 3: people will look at McCaffrey's return and say, Okay, you

639
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 3: know this, this will help Carolina. But at the end

640
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 3: of the day, Casey gives up runs because they tend

641
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 3: to be up in games. They tend to be in

642
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 3: control of games, and they're not going to dedicate you know,

643
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 3: resources to stop you know, giving you giving you three

644
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 3: yards instead of four or five on a run play.

645
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 3: So if Carolina wants to run the ball in Casey.

646
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 3: I don't think that helps them cover the spread in

647
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 3: this spot. Carolina is just not talented enough on defense.

648
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 3: They're getting Douglass back, but overall I just think not

649
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 3: talented enough on defense to hold down this offense. So

650
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:21,400
Speaker 3: I like this number at ten and a half, probably

651
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:24,720
Speaker 3: like it up to twelve because I think Casey wins

652
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 3: by two touchdowns here. Patrick Mahomes, you know, most quarterbacks

653
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 3: and teams in general, you just don't see them cover

654
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 3: as favorites, especially over longer periods of time, because you know,

655
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:39,120
Speaker 3: it's just so hard. Public likes favorites, they bet favorites,

656
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 3: the lines are inflated. Only Tom Brady Aaron Rodgers I

657
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:45,400
Speaker 3: think have been good at it over the long term.

658
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes now kind of building one of those track

659
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 3: records up to twenty three, thirteen and one, sixty four

660
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 3: percent against the spread as a favorite, including five and

661
00:32:55,040 --> 00:33:00,080
Speaker 3: two this season. So not usually confident about these large favorites.

662
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 3: But like the Chiefs in this spot against the Carolina Panthers,

663
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 3: who because they've been keeping games close, I think are

664
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 3: tracking a little too much under Doug Love.

665
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, don't haate it. I make this thirteen.

666
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 3: Oh that's a high lot.

667
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 2: I'm just had vin consistingly low on the Panthers and

668
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 2: their defense is just overperformed. It's one of those defense

669
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 2: that I expect extreme regression for. They've been playing I

670
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 2: think the mo zone heavy team last year and the

671
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 2: mozone heavy team this year. You know, they if you

672
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 2: look at that Falcons game, and the Falcons just were

673
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 2: the Falcons, but the Falcons should have put up close

674
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 2: to forty points in that game, you know. And it

675
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 2: was also that you had like a month soon at

676
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:37,640
Speaker 2: some point at some points during the game. So I

677
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 2: think that this I still have this as a bottom

678
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 2: three defense to Panthers. They have been grading out this

679
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 2: year closer to average to twentieth, but so I think

680
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 2: there's a lot of regression coming. Dante Jackson dealing with

681
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 2: a toe injury. He's not fully healthy. I don't even

682
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 2: know if we'll go. He met with a specials today

683
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 2: and he said my goal was to just not reaggravate it,

684
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 2: so they might sit him out. But I think, like

685
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 2: guys like Corn Elder, I think he's actually might be

686
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 2: hurt too. Has been over performing. Russell Douglas has been great,

687
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 2: but I think he's been over performing. You know, up front,

688
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 2: curve is still hurt. They lost short. They don't get

689
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 2: after the quarterback. What that's the key with mom? So

690
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:14,439
Speaker 2: how you Mahomes picks apart zones for fun. The only

691
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:17,919
Speaker 2: time that you can you can successfully run a zone

692
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:20,239
Speaker 2: against them is if you can also generate. It's what

693
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:22,880
Speaker 2: the Chargers do. They have elite pass rushers, so you

694
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:24,840
Speaker 2: can kind of sit back and your cover three have

695
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:27,440
Speaker 2: good cover guys, but then you're also having Ingram and

696
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:30,800
Speaker 2: Bosa get pressure on Mahomes. Right, Mahomes will pick apart

697
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:32,720
Speaker 2: the zone, especially because he's not gonna be under pressure.

698
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:36,400
Speaker 2: And that RPO offense that's why Hilaire works so well.

699
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 2: They're all there. RPOs they run were built to just

700
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:44,319
Speaker 2: dominate zone defenses like this. So and then you know

701
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:47,359
Speaker 2: you're gonna have no Keikley in the middle anymore. He's

702
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 2: gonna be able to RP and if the Panthers run

703
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:52,920
Speaker 2: toes might be the worst in the NFL. So I

704
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 2: don't know how this Panthers team stops the Chiefs. You're

705
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 2: gonna have a lot of RPO slants to hill a

706
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,479
Speaker 2: lot of runs. It's just that I think it's gonna

707
00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 2: be a mess. The Panthers. I think, well, we'll put

708
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 2: up a couple of touchdowns on the board, but the

709
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:06,600
Speaker 2: Chiefs should be able to do what they want.

710
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:12,400
Speaker 3: Here, take me hold.

711
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 2: To the pawee below. All right, for my final pick

712
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:26,720
Speaker 2: and the fifth overall the Sunday six pack, I'm going

713
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 2: with the Arizona Cardinals minus four. Back to Cliff. This

714
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:33,399
Speaker 2: is a team I wouldn't bet lest year. They haven't

715
00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 2: let me down once this year. This is your team

716
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 2: last year, and it's been my team this year, which

717
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:38,919
Speaker 2: is pretty funny. There's some surprising stucky picks.

718
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:41,880
Speaker 3: I must say. The Titans is as favorites. The you

719
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 3: need the Titan cards to win is essentially buy a touchdown.

720
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 2: This is this is yes right has been crushing. There's

721
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 2: sixty eight and fifty one against the spread, fifty seven

722
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:52,719
Speaker 2: percent on the year since two thousand. The only year

723
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:54,719
Speaker 2: they've been better than that two thousand and six, So

724
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 2: it can happen. They were one hundred and forty four

725
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 2: hundred and five and seven about fifty eight percent. But

726
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 2: you might see some Russian on dogs. Not why I'm

727
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 2: betting the favorites here, but maybe that works in my favor. Look,

728
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 2: I just think Cardinals number one, coming off of a

729
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 2: bye where I think the Cardinal's gonna win this is

730
00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:09,800
Speaker 2: in the red zone. I think that they're going to

731
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 2: execute more. But then the Dolphins. I just think the

732
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:14,879
Speaker 2: Dolphins are getting too much love here after that win

733
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:17,319
Speaker 2: over the Rams. Go look at that box score the

734
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:19,879
Speaker 2: Dolphins at one hundred and forty five total yards of offense. Yeah,

735
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 2: Gaskin's out now too. And I know that the Cardinals

736
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 2: have injuries. They lost Jones, the Canard is on the

737
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 2: COVID list, Byron Murphy's on the COVID list. But I

738
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 2: just think, look, people are like two of one and

739
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 2: they blew out the Rams. From an EPA per play perspective,

740
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 2: two was the worst quarterback in the NFL last week,

741
00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:43,080
Speaker 2: worse than Ben Denucci. He didn't do anything. He looked bad.

742
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 2: That's okay. I think he's gonna be fine, but he's

743
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 2: still a rookie quarterback. So I I was kind of hedging,

744
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:51,320
Speaker 2: all right, do I downgrade to do I downgrade the

745
00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 2: Dolphins a lot from Fitzpatrick, who's top ten in the

746
00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 2: NFL and EPA per play, by the way, on the year,

747
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 2: the number.

748
00:36:57,320 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 3: One more past success rate on early down.

749
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:00,719
Speaker 2: With yeah, and now all of a sudden you go to

750
00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:02,080
Speaker 2: a Rooie quarterback and I was like, all right, well,

751
00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:04,399
Speaker 2: I liked what Tua did in college. I think he's

752
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 2: gonna be good, so I kind of didn't downnget him

753
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:07,279
Speaker 2: as much. But then I saw last week and I'm like,

754
00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:09,239
Speaker 2: all right, this pass off he has some work to

755
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:11,440
Speaker 2: do in this pass offense definitely took a step back

756
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 2: without Fitzpatrick. Maybe I think this is a more of

757
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:16,400
Speaker 2: a long term move anyway, So I just think the

758
00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:18,760
Speaker 2: Dolphins getting way too much love here, and the Dolphins

759
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:21,360
Speaker 2: play a ton Number one of the Dolphins are thirty

760
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:24,839
Speaker 2: second in the NFL with if you look at most

761
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:29,280
Speaker 2: advanced metrics against the run, horrendous run defense, good corners,

762
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 2: they can't get after the quarterback a little bit. But

763
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:34,720
Speaker 2: they play a lot of man right. This is Brian

764
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:37,759
Speaker 2: Flores is a Bill Belichick from the Bill Belichick. You're

765
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:39,080
Speaker 2: gona play a lot of man defense. What does that

766
00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:41,760
Speaker 2: set up for Kyler Marray running the ball with his legs,

767
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 2: which I think is going to be if he just

768
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:47,279
Speaker 2: gets by that first wave, he's gonna have space to run.

769
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:50,839
Speaker 2: And then just in general, this Cardinals offense, it's an

770
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:54,279
Speaker 2: explosive rushing offense because they spread you out and this

771
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 2: Miami defense is just horrible against the run. So I

772
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:57,319
Speaker 2: think the Cardinals will be able to run the ball.

773
00:37:57,360 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 2: They're gonna execute in the red zone to it. I

774
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:01,960
Speaker 2: didn't see anything last week that's gonna make me believe

775
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 2: this week, all of a sudden, he's going to light

776
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:05,800
Speaker 2: up the scoreboard. So I had to drop the Dolphins

777
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 2: considerably until I see some improvement for Tua. And there's

778
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:11,440
Speaker 2: no reason to panic. He's a rookie quarterback when he

779
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 2: just made his first start. But I think it's going

780
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 2: to take him some time. So yeah, give me the

781
00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:18,399
Speaker 2: Cardinals minus four and Cliff off of a buy at

782
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 2: home in the number I think should be six, a

783
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 2: little over six ish.

784
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:26,280
Speaker 3: Not to why I was initially like on the Dolphins,

785
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:29,160
Speaker 3: like early in the week. It's tough because I started

786
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:31,000
Speaker 3: looking at the numbers and I realized that, yeah, I

787
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:33,719
Speaker 3: have to downgrade this offense more because it's not just

788
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:36,160
Speaker 3: that you have this rookie quarterback, it's that they were

789
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:39,319
Speaker 3: playing so well with Fitzpatrick, like.

790
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 2: He was a top ten quarterback. This year.

791
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:45,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, so you know, all things considered, I think I

792
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 3: just don't see how Miami gets enough offense. I think

793
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:51,440
Speaker 3: this could actually be an undergame too, because you know,

794
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 3: even with the Cardinals losing some defenders, I mean, the

795
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:56,839
Speaker 3: Cardinals have been kind of iffy on offense and they've

796
00:38:56,880 --> 00:38:58,719
Speaker 3: had these stretches that they just take a long time

797
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 3: to get where they're going, and then sometimes I have

798
00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 3: these big plays. But the Dolphins defense against the pass

799
00:39:04,000 --> 00:39:06,600
Speaker 3: has been playing well, so I think it could be

800
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:08,480
Speaker 3: a little bit of an undergame. But yeah, I just

801
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 3: don't see how the Dolphins get much offense in West.

802
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 3: Two is night and day different from last week. So yeah,

803
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 3: I'm with you. Now, I wouldn't have been with you.

804
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 3: Like when this line first drops, I was like, God,

805
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:21,839
Speaker 3: it's too high, but I can see it. Now.

806
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:24,480
Speaker 2: Are you going to place a bet or what?

807
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:26,800
Speaker 3: Dude, I'm gonna take one. I know you're gonna disagree

808
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 3: with me, so this will give you a nice chance

809
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 3: to pad your lead. But I am going for the

810
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:35,720
Speaker 3: sixth and final pick, my third pick of the Sunday

811
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:39,680
Speaker 3: six pack, with the team that never wins big except

812
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:44,680
Speaker 3: last week. The Seattle Seahawks minus three on the road

813
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:47,640
Speaker 3: against Buffalo, and I'm pretty sure you have Buffalo as

814
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:49,880
Speaker 3: a slight favorite in this game stuck, so I'm interested

815
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:53,520
Speaker 3: to hear your opinion on this one. But I actually

816
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:58,160
Speaker 3: have this as Seattle three and a half. I did

817
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 3: make a little adjustment with Seattle for their I think

818
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 3: their defense will get a little bit better with you know,

819
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:09,360
Speaker 3: the additions they made at the deadline, and Adam's coming back.

820
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 3: It looks like he should be a full go this week,

821
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 3: so I think that I also like the over in

822
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:17,160
Speaker 3: this game. I think there will be point score, but

823
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 3: I think Seattle right now is pretty much a lock

824
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:23,920
Speaker 3: week in week out to give you thirty plus points.

825
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:26,759
Speaker 3: I just don't think Buffalo is a better shootout team

826
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 3: than Seattle. And this Buffalo defense, now, I know they've

827
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 3: been missing different pieces at times Milano Norman White's been

828
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:38,520
Speaker 3: banged up, but even a healthy mcgermott defense, I don't

829
00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:42,400
Speaker 3: think they match up particularly well with Seattle. I think

830
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:45,879
Speaker 3: that like, yeah, you have Trey White, Okay, he can

831
00:40:45,960 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 3: guard one of these two guys, but I mean Wilson's

832
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 3: been so good that they're still going to make plays

833
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:54,200
Speaker 3: and this is one of the few teams. I think

834
00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 3: that can actually, you know, like Buffalo, secure everything in

835
00:40:56,719 --> 00:40:59,359
Speaker 3: front of them. I think Seattle better than any team

836
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,279
Speaker 3: in the league at at connecting on deep balls in

837
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 3: tight spaces. So like Seattle. I think they'll be a

838
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:08,399
Speaker 3: little healthy on running in the running backs stable this week,

839
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 3: so they won't have to use DJ Dallas. We'll see

840
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 3: about that. But overall, I just think this is a

841
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:16,319
Speaker 3: good spot for Seattle. I think they are the better team.

842
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:19,239
Speaker 3: I know it's a cross country road trip. I think

843
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:22,719
Speaker 3: that tends to get overrated. Matthew Friedman posted a piece

844
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:26,320
Speaker 3: for his Early bet Trends that looked at these teams

845
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 3: and how they've been undervalued by the market over the

846
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:33,120
Speaker 3: last few years, but particularly Seattle. I believe it's fourteen

847
00:41:33,160 --> 00:41:35,760
Speaker 3: and six against the spread Pete Carroll in these spots,

848
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:40,560
Speaker 3: so like Seattle to get a win here. I think

849
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 3: they probably win this game by more like a touchdown.

850
00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:45,799
Speaker 3: I know you disagree, so tell me why I'm wrong.

851
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:48,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I'm higher on the bills of the market,

852
00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 2: lower in the Seahawks. Their defense should presumably get a

853
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:54,840
Speaker 2: little better, it's still a dumbster fire defense. Do you

854
00:41:54,920 --> 00:41:58,359
Speaker 2: have you know Jamal Adams is hopefully coming back soon.

855
00:41:58,440 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 2: You think you added Carlos on, which helps up front,

856
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:03,920
Speaker 2: although I don't think Carlos still not necessarily moves the

857
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:05,919
Speaker 2: needle anymore, but he helps compared to what they had

858
00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:10,880
Speaker 2: there before. The Bills do have some concerning injuries though,

859
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 2: so I might have to adjust this line. You know,

860
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:17,360
Speaker 2: Mitch Morris is in in concussion proto call. Feliciano looked okay,

861
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:19,880
Speaker 2: he might be able to fill in. But you have Ford,

862
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:23,400
Speaker 2: Goby Ford, who's still banged up. You have Micah Hyde.

863
00:42:23,640 --> 00:42:26,319
Speaker 2: Their safety and their safeties are just the strength the team.

864
00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 2: He's in concussion protocol. So you know Aj Klein, their

865
00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:33,560
Speaker 2: slot Toron Johnson is going to dumpster fire. He's hurt too.

866
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:35,839
Speaker 2: I don't know how much that matters, but if he's playing,

867
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:37,839
Speaker 2: I don't know what else they have behind it. Maybe

868
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:41,799
Speaker 2: Norman comes back and it's just a message. Just Tray

869
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 2: White is really the only reliable one there, so I

870
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:46,239
Speaker 2: have to look to see who's gonna end up playing.

871
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:48,040
Speaker 2: I do like some of the play call play calling.

872
00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:51,399
Speaker 2: The Buffalo Buffle finally started running more play action last week,

873
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:54,879
Speaker 2: which I think can work here. I don't hate the play.

874
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:57,919
Speaker 2: I don't care about Seattle coming across country, but their

875
00:42:57,920 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 2: defense is still a train racket, just Russell Wilson, and

876
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:03,280
Speaker 2: are they going to Are Seattle going to be able

877
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:07,880
Speaker 2: to continue playing that the most were they can't afford

878
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:10,400
Speaker 2: any drop off. I mean, they're scoring touchdowns in the

879
00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 2: reds in like ninety two percent or something. So I mean,

880
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 2: if you see even a little bit of a drop

881
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:17,319
Speaker 2: off of regression from the Seattle offense, you hope that

882
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:19,840
Speaker 2: you get it from the other side on the defensive bump.

883
00:43:20,120 --> 00:43:21,960
Speaker 2: But basically, I mean, I think that I'll end up

884
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:25,080
Speaker 2: making Seattle a slight favorite here after adjusting for some

885
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 2: of these injuries. I gotta wait for the injury report tomorrow.

886
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 2: But to me, I mean, I'll just be teasing Buffalo,

887
00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:33,319
Speaker 2: teasing against Seattle up to over eight, which finally didn't

888
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 2: work out last week because san Feran didn't get a

889
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:35,840
Speaker 2: two point conversion.

890
00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:39,200
Speaker 3: Well we both I believe we both took advantage of that,

891
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 3: Like the line just moved crazy and it seemed like free.

892
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:46,520
Speaker 3: It seemed like a free square because Seattle ended up

893
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:48,840
Speaker 3: being a low was like a one point dog like

894
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:51,279
Speaker 3: right before it closed. So I think we both ended

895
00:43:51,320 --> 00:43:55,760
Speaker 3: up taking Seattle, so that that did work out. But yeah,

896
00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:58,320
Speaker 3: it was like the one week where Seattle wins big.

897
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:00,880
Speaker 3: San Francisco has their own issue. But I mean, I

898
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 3: don't know Seattle again, it's when you have a quarterback

899
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:06,239
Speaker 3: this good, it's like people will continue to wait for

900
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:08,440
Speaker 3: their whatck to run out. And I mean even that

901
00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:11,440
Speaker 3: Arizona game that they blew, I mean, they can control

902
00:44:11,480 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 3: that whole game. But Russell Wilson over the course of

903
00:44:14,160 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 3: his career, I mean thirty seven, thirty five and twenty

904
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 3: seven and four against the spread on the road, thirty

905
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 3: seven and twenty eight at home, you know, and so

906
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:27,840
Speaker 3: overall that's the you know, that's a seventy three, fifty

907
00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:31,240
Speaker 3: five and seven against the spread mark. I mean, it's

908
00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:34,359
Speaker 3: it's that's Russell Wilson, just like Tom Brady for his

909
00:44:34,520 --> 00:44:40,280
Speaker 3: entire career essentially in New England, made them a profitable team. So, uh,

910
00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:42,600
Speaker 3: Seattle's a team that I'm not going to shy away from,

911
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:45,840
Speaker 3: especially because you don't always get them in these in

912
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:48,479
Speaker 3: these small spots these days, because they're playing so well

913
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 3: that they're bound to be overrated when they you know,

914
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:52,759
Speaker 3: when they come back home. So I still think they

915
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:55,759
Speaker 3: can win games by a touchdown, you know, and if

916
00:44:55,920 --> 00:44:58,120
Speaker 3: you know it's three, I mean I lose the contest

917
00:44:58,160 --> 00:45:00,279
Speaker 3: if they wouldn't buy three. But you know, if you're

918
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:02,799
Speaker 3: betting it they push, I still think they win the game.

919
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:06,920
Speaker 3: So going with Seattle here, Uh but I could see

920
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:09,320
Speaker 3: how people that would make people nervous. But like Seattle

921
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 3: in a spot. And oh, one trend I wanted to

922
00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 3: point out with with Seattle in this game. And this

923
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:17,200
Speaker 3: is a trend that I've been noticing. I've been getting

924
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:19,480
Speaker 3: the works foreign bet labs. But when you have an

925
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 3: underdog that's been covering at a with a margin of

926
00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:26,120
Speaker 3: three or worse, which the Buffalo Bills have this year,

927
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 3: those teams have actually usually you're trying to back, you know,

928
00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:32,680
Speaker 3: dogs that haven't been covering, but when that eighth when

929
00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 3: that margin is three points are worse. And they're going

930
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 3: against a favorite that has been covering by you know,

931
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:41,759
Speaker 3: no more than four four and a half points. So

932
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:44,800
Speaker 3: nothing too crazy where you're gonna expect like monster regression.

933
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 3: So the Seahawks fit this trend one thirty five, sixty

934
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:51,919
Speaker 3: nine and seven sixty six percent since two thousand and three,

935
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:55,040
Speaker 3: eight graded trend three and oh this year it rarely happens,

936
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 3: but it's got to be October to December. Obviously you

937
00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:01,320
Speaker 3: need some sample size, but I've noticed here where the

938
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:04,840
Speaker 3: models don't quite pick that up. So I'm going with Seattle.

939
00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:10,080
Speaker 3: So that is the week number nine six pack. Stuck

940
00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:13,360
Speaker 3: went with the Cowboys plus thirteen and a half, the

941
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:18,239
Speaker 3: Titans minus six, and the Arizona Cardinals minus four. I

942
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:21,800
Speaker 3: went with the New Orleans Saints plus five and a half,

943
00:46:22,160 --> 00:46:25,640
Speaker 3: Kansas City Chiefs minus ten and a half, and the

944
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:29,440
Speaker 3: Seahawks minus three. Next up, we have our favorite over

945
00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:33,760
Speaker 3: underplays of the week, so we got our total here.

946
00:46:34,640 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 3: Didn't work out for me in that Pittsburgh game. Did

947
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:39,319
Speaker 3: grab a live number that I think it was like

948
00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:41,440
Speaker 3: fifty seven or something. I mean that total shot up

949
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:43,759
Speaker 3: when all that action happened in the first quarter, but

950
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 3: unfortunately did not connect for the show this week, going

951
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:53,080
Speaker 3: the Saints and Bucks under fifty one and a half.

952
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:58,520
Speaker 3: At BENMGM Official as provider of the Action Network podcast listen,

953
00:46:58,640 --> 00:47:03,719
Speaker 3: you have teen plus mile prow wins projected here. You

954
00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 3: have Tampa Bay great defense. You have New Orleans a

955
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 3: team that still should be able to move the ball

956
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:13,360
Speaker 3: against this defense, the drives might take longer. You have

957
00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:17,520
Speaker 3: New Orleans, a team that is bottom five in situation

958
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 3: neutral pace, not a team that's gonna necessarily go super fast.

959
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:26,440
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay middle of the pack. You have two of

960
00:47:26,480 --> 00:47:30,920
Speaker 3: the better run defenses in this league, which always helps

961
00:47:30,920 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 3: to set up some long third downs. And you have

962
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 3: two old quarterbacks trying to play you know, forty plus

963
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:38,680
Speaker 3: your whole quarterbacks trying to play in some high wins.

964
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:42,640
Speaker 3: So give me the under. In this game. We saw

965
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay's offense look a little shaky in against the Giants,

966
00:47:47,440 --> 00:47:51,000
Speaker 3: the Saints defense getting healthier, So give me the under.

967
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:53,839
Speaker 3: Fifty one and a half in Buck sinks.

968
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:55,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, you stole this one for me. This is my

969
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:58,239
Speaker 2: favorite total of the week. Yeah, I mean, just to throw.

970
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 2: I talked about a little about this earlier. But ye,

971
00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:08,240
Speaker 2: from a pace perspective in situational neutral plays, the Bucks

972
00:48:08,239 --> 00:48:10,120
Speaker 2: are middle of the road. The Saints are snail. I

973
00:48:10,160 --> 00:48:11,960
Speaker 2: think the Saints are like twenty eighth or twenty ninth

974
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:13,560
Speaker 2: in the NFL, so it's not like you're gonna have

975
00:48:13,560 --> 00:48:18,600
Speaker 2: two speed racers here with the wins. I like both defenses,

976
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 2: and I think both teams are gonna have to work

977
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:23,560
Speaker 2: hard to move the ball. Michael Thomas being out and

978
00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:26,120
Speaker 2: Chris Godwin would help, but even with it with the wins,

979
00:48:26,280 --> 00:48:30,680
Speaker 2: I agree with you there. For my favorite total of

980
00:48:30,719 --> 00:48:37,120
Speaker 2: the week, I'm going to go with the Kansas City

981
00:48:37,280 --> 00:48:44,439
Speaker 2: Chiefs and Carolina Panthers over fifty two and a half

982
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:48,720
Speaker 2: at bet MGM. The Panthers don't play that fast, which

983
00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 2: is a bit concerning, but I think they'll be able

984
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:52,880
Speaker 2: to move the ball here some I can count on

985
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:56,920
Speaker 2: them maybe for you know, seventeen to twenty points. And

986
00:48:57,120 --> 00:48:59,719
Speaker 2: I think the Chiefs, like I said before, against that

987
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:04,520
Speaker 2: zone defense that doesn't get any pressure with their RPOs

988
00:49:04,600 --> 00:49:06,840
Speaker 2: with Mahomes, I think they're going to be able to

989
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:09,000
Speaker 2: score at will. So give me the over. I know

990
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:11,000
Speaker 2: the trends with Reid and Unders at home, and if

991
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:12,799
Speaker 2: it gets too much of a blow out, that might

992
00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:14,680
Speaker 2: get concerning. But I think the Panthers can do some

993
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:18,040
Speaker 2: things on offense to give me enough points here, and

994
00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:20,880
Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a feast for the

995
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:23,360
Speaker 2: Chiefs offense it gets to what I expect to be

996
00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:26,800
Speaker 2: a heavily regressing Carolin at defense the rest of the way.

997
00:49:26,960 --> 00:49:29,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Chiefs can put out points. It's really a

998
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:33,359
Speaker 3: question of the Panthers here, and you know, I think they,

999
00:49:33,719 --> 00:49:37,040
Speaker 3: I mean McCaffrey back should help them get enough points

1000
00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:39,680
Speaker 3: to get the total over. We'll see about the we

1001
00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:41,319
Speaker 3: I know there is some weather there, so that is

1002
00:49:41,320 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 3: something to watch. Could be some wins there, but it's not

1003
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:47,239
Speaker 3: like the Panthers are throwing a ton downfield. Don't hate

1004
00:49:47,239 --> 00:49:50,240
Speaker 3: it all right, So that's our favorite totals of the week.

1005
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:54,319
Speaker 3: I went Saints Bucks under fifty one and a half.

1006
00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:58,520
Speaker 3: Stuck went Chiefs Panthers over fifty two and a half.

1007
00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:03,960
Speaker 3: Now let's get in to our weekly teaser segment.

1008
00:50:04,640 --> 00:50:07,799
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1009
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:11,080
Speaker 3: And for those not familiar, a teaser is when you

1010
00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:13,920
Speaker 3: combine two or more bets, and each bet you get

1011
00:50:13,920 --> 00:50:18,200
Speaker 3: an additional amount of points towards the spread. In this case,

1012
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:21,520
Speaker 3: we're doing a standard six point two team teasers. So

1013
00:50:21,600 --> 00:50:24,360
Speaker 3: that means, for example, if you're teasing an eight point

1014
00:50:24,400 --> 00:50:27,239
Speaker 3: favorite with a six point teaser, they become a two

1015
00:50:27,239 --> 00:50:30,760
Speaker 3: point favorite, and if you're teasing an eight point underdog,

1016
00:50:30,880 --> 00:50:34,879
Speaker 3: they become a fourteen point underdog. Stuck has a lot

1017
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:39,479
Speaker 3: of great information and strategy up at actionnetwork dot com.

1018
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:43,120
Speaker 3: You can google it Stucky Teaser and find a lot

1019
00:50:43,120 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 3: of great information on how he goes about his philosophy

1020
00:50:46,239 --> 00:50:48,960
Speaker 3: and what numbers he's looking for when he's teasing. So

1021
00:50:49,000 --> 00:50:50,800
Speaker 3: go check those out. But stuck, where are you going

1022
00:50:51,600 --> 00:50:54,800
Speaker 3: for your two teamer in week number nine?

1023
00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:57,160
Speaker 2: Basically the premise is you want to tease through both

1024
00:50:57,200 --> 00:50:59,759
Speaker 2: three and seven. So if you have two two and

1025
00:50:59,800 --> 00:51:01,799
Speaker 2: a half point underdogs and you can tease them up

1026
00:51:01,800 --> 00:51:04,919
Speaker 2: over eight, even better, you're crossing three, four, six, and seven.

1027
00:51:04,960 --> 00:51:06,960
Speaker 2: Same thing with a seven to seven and a half

1028
00:51:07,000 --> 00:51:10,080
Speaker 2: point favorite, you're teasing down under a field goal and

1029
00:51:10,120 --> 00:51:12,960
Speaker 2: crossing all those key numbers. So for this week, I

1030
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:17,279
Speaker 2: already mentioned the Bills. I love teasing against the Seahawks,

1031
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:21,160
Speaker 2: requiring them by more than two possessions. The Buffalo offense

1032
00:51:21,200 --> 00:51:24,799
Speaker 2: should have some success here and I'm gonna go with

1033
00:51:24,880 --> 00:51:26,800
Speaker 2: Houston teasing them down from seven to seven and a

1034
00:51:26,800 --> 00:51:30,120
Speaker 2: half to one one and a half playing against sixth

1035
00:51:30,320 --> 00:51:32,839
Speaker 2: round rookie and Jake Lutan from Oregon State will make

1036
00:51:32,880 --> 00:51:35,640
Speaker 2: his start here, and both teams off of a buy

1037
00:51:36,360 --> 00:51:40,040
Speaker 2: Texans should be able to just pick apart this horrendous

1038
00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:43,120
Speaker 2: Jacksonville defense and Eve, a rookie six round quarterback making

1039
00:51:43,160 --> 00:51:45,200
Speaker 2: the start. So Texan should win this game.

1040
00:51:45,440 --> 00:51:47,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like that call. I was tempted to pick

1041
00:51:47,920 --> 00:51:51,080
Speaker 3: the Texans against the spread as one of the as

1042
00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:54,080
Speaker 3: one of my picks for the six pack, but like

1043
00:51:54,160 --> 00:51:57,399
Speaker 3: the call there going with the Texans as well down

1044
00:51:57,440 --> 00:52:02,440
Speaker 3: to a half a point and then the Indianapolis Colts

1045
00:52:02,719 --> 00:52:06,839
Speaker 3: up from two and a half point underdog to eight

1046
00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:08,759
Speaker 3: and a half point underdogs. I know you have some

1047
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:12,239
Speaker 3: stats about teasing Rivers up, so you know, this is

1048
00:52:12,320 --> 00:52:14,439
Speaker 3: kind of how I bet on the Coats because don't

1049
00:52:14,560 --> 00:52:17,640
Speaker 3: like to bet on them straight up. Rivers does kind

1050
00:52:17,640 --> 00:52:20,680
Speaker 3: of make some mistakes that make me nervous. But Baltimore

1051
00:52:20,760 --> 00:52:23,799
Speaker 3: all kinds of banged up on the offensive line. They

1052
00:52:23,920 --> 00:52:28,440
Speaker 3: just lost Stanley. Also, we was Marlon Humphrey went on

1053
00:52:28,440 --> 00:52:31,759
Speaker 3: the COVID list, so Baltimore not at full strength, and

1054
00:52:32,160 --> 00:52:35,280
Speaker 3: I mean this offense is a bit of a problem,

1055
00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:38,759
Speaker 3: and they're not the team they were last year. Seems like,

1056
00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:41,960
Speaker 3: you know, the offseason, whatever it was, teams getting some

1057
00:52:42,040 --> 00:52:46,880
Speaker 3: film has really kind of helped this offense or defenses

1058
00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:49,840
Speaker 3: kind of shut down this offense and keep Lamar Jackson

1059
00:52:50,000 --> 00:52:53,799
Speaker 3: in check more so than last season, and it's another

1060
00:52:53,840 --> 00:52:57,520
Speaker 3: good defense Indianapolis. So teasing them up to eight and

1061
00:52:57,520 --> 00:53:00,919
Speaker 3: a half along with those Texans down to a half

1062
00:53:00,920 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 3: point fever.

1063
00:53:02,320 --> 00:53:04,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the Ravens luck you have, you're gonna

1064
00:53:04,520 --> 00:53:06,359
Speaker 2: be missing Marlon Humphrey, who I think is a top

1065
00:53:06,400 --> 00:53:09,359
Speaker 2: two corner in the NFL. Now he has COVID. You're

1066
00:53:09,360 --> 00:53:12,760
Speaker 2: obviously missing Maronnie Stanley and all pro left tackle Tyree

1067
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:15,200
Speaker 2: Phillips are starting guard is out, although there's not much

1068
00:53:15,200 --> 00:53:17,759
Speaker 2: of a drop off between him and his backup. But

1069
00:53:17,880 --> 00:53:19,319
Speaker 2: what they're gonna do with stat like, you're gonna move

1070
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:21,720
Speaker 2: Orlando Brown over from the right side to the left side,

1071
00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:23,640
Speaker 2: and now you're gonna bring in DJ Fluker on the

1072
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:25,360
Speaker 2: right side, not great at pass blocking. I think the

1073
00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:27,759
Speaker 2: Ravens are gonna go very run heavy, and they're just

1074
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:30,000
Speaker 2: struggling to throw the ball right now. If I mean

1075
00:53:30,200 --> 00:53:31,960
Speaker 2: to first play the game or second play the game,

1076
00:53:32,680 --> 00:53:35,719
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson just hands the Steelers a free seven points.

1077
00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:38,120
Speaker 2: So I think they're gonna go very run heavy with

1078
00:53:38,360 --> 00:53:42,600
Speaker 2: some pass potential pass protection issues, and the Colts will

1079
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:45,239
Speaker 2: be sitting back in a lot of their zone and

1080
00:53:45,440 --> 00:53:47,280
Speaker 2: maybe there's not gonna be as many lanes for Lamar

1081
00:53:47,360 --> 00:53:49,720
Speaker 2: to run in the other side of the ball. Look,

1082
00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:51,839
Speaker 2: you have the Ravens. Not only are they missing Marlon

1083
00:53:51,920 --> 00:53:55,000
Speaker 2: Humphrey on the outside, I mean they have seven or

1084
00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:58,000
Speaker 2: eight total players on the COVID list, So you know

1085
00:53:58,120 --> 00:54:03,560
Speaker 2: Judon Bowser, Queen olj Ford, Harrison, Deshaun Elliott. I mean

1086
00:54:03,600 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 2: you might be going with a corner that's been hasn't

1087
00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:08,920
Speaker 2: played yet this year in addition to Jimmy Smith and

1088
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:12,640
Speaker 2: Marcus Peters. Look, the Ravens don't play particularly fast, neither

1089
00:54:12,640 --> 00:54:14,879
Speaker 2: do the Colts. I do still this total is ticked

1090
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:16,960
Speaker 2: up because of all the defensive injuries. I do still

1091
00:54:16,960 --> 00:54:18,840
Speaker 2: think this is an underplay, but I don't hate the

1092
00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:19,359
Speaker 2: tease at all.

1093
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 3: Three cats stuck one with the Buffalo Bills plus nine

1094
00:54:22,120 --> 00:54:24,560
Speaker 3: and the Texans down to a half point. And I'm

1095
00:54:24,600 --> 00:54:26,520
Speaker 3: going with the Texans down to a half point the

1096
00:54:26,560 --> 00:54:29,080
Speaker 3: Colts up to eight and a half. Those were our

1097
00:54:29,440 --> 00:54:33,480
Speaker 3: teasers for this week. Now let's get into our underdog

1098
00:54:33,880 --> 00:54:35,440
Speaker 3: moneyline par.

1099
00:54:35,800 --> 00:54:43,799
Speaker 4: Le turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

1100
00:54:43,960 --> 00:54:45,520
Speaker 4: the money line parlay.

1101
00:54:46,840 --> 00:54:49,120
Speaker 3: All right, Stuck, you got to it to come through

1102
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:52,879
Speaker 3: for you last week, love that one. The Patriots came

1103
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:55,880
Speaker 3: up short with the fumble at the end. Where are

1104
00:54:55,880 --> 00:54:58,240
Speaker 3: you going with your moneyline dog this week?

1105
00:54:58,840 --> 00:55:02,160
Speaker 2: I'll go with the Vegas plus one. I like the

1106
00:55:02,160 --> 00:55:03,840
Speaker 2: way that they're playing. They're gonna play a lot of

1107
00:55:03,920 --> 00:55:06,520
Speaker 2: zone on the defensive side of the ball. Maybe that

1108
00:55:06,520 --> 00:55:09,880
Speaker 2: can that confuses Herbert. I still think that we have

1109
00:55:09,920 --> 00:55:14,840
Speaker 2: a Herbert just shit fest game coming. And I know

1110
00:55:14,880 --> 00:55:17,600
Speaker 2: the Raiders defense is one of the bottom five in

1111
00:55:17,640 --> 00:55:21,120
Speaker 2: the NFL, but their offense should be able to move

1112
00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:23,520
Speaker 2: the ball here. And I want to get them the

1113
00:55:23,520 --> 00:55:25,640
Speaker 2: two and a half too and tease them. I don't

1114
00:55:25,640 --> 00:55:27,640
Speaker 2: really love them at one, one and a half at

1115
00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:29,920
Speaker 2: pretty much a round where I make it. But if

1116
00:55:29,920 --> 00:55:31,399
Speaker 2: you're going to take a shot and a money line

1117
00:55:31,440 --> 00:55:35,120
Speaker 2: dog and for that inevitable Herbert shit fest game, maybe

1118
00:55:35,160 --> 00:55:37,640
Speaker 2: it's here. So I'll go with the uh the Raiders

1119
00:55:37,640 --> 00:55:39,200
Speaker 2: in a game which probably a coin flip.

1120
00:55:39,760 --> 00:55:42,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I go either rure on this one. I mean,

1121
00:55:42,520 --> 00:55:45,359
Speaker 3: on one hand, the Chargers they just can't win games.

1122
00:55:45,400 --> 00:55:48,160
Speaker 3: I mean, they've been sixteen points in the last four

1123
00:55:48,200 --> 00:55:49,680
Speaker 3: games and haven't been able to close it out in

1124
00:55:49,719 --> 00:55:51,719
Speaker 3: the second half against really good teams.

1125
00:55:51,719 --> 00:55:51,839
Speaker 2: Too.

1126
00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:54,560
Speaker 3: I mean, you're talking about the Chargers and the Saints

1127
00:55:54,560 --> 00:55:57,719
Speaker 3: and the Bucks and kind of inexplicable you would figure, Yeah,

1128
00:55:57,760 --> 00:56:01,160
Speaker 3: Herbert probably gets that win or he has that hip

1129
00:56:01,200 --> 00:56:03,560
Speaker 3: fest game. I don't know which comes first, but I

1130
00:56:03,640 --> 00:56:05,440
Speaker 3: think I'm just going to stay away from the Chargers

1131
00:56:05,520 --> 00:56:08,760
Speaker 3: until we start seeing some things even out here because

1132
00:56:09,120 --> 00:56:12,200
Speaker 3: this is a coin flip. But can't disagree with the Raiders.

1133
00:56:12,200 --> 00:56:13,759
Speaker 3: They are playing well. Derrek Cartney at the top of

1134
00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:18,920
Speaker 3: the league in adjusted net yards per attempt. He's been great,

1135
00:56:19,000 --> 00:56:21,560
Speaker 3: and they've been dealing with some injuries, so there's room

1136
00:56:21,560 --> 00:56:25,279
Speaker 3: for improvement here. So it is a coin flip game,

1137
00:56:25,280 --> 00:56:27,720
Speaker 3: not really a road game or much of a travel

1138
00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:33,239
Speaker 3: game for the Raiders going to LA all right. For

1139
00:56:33,520 --> 00:56:39,600
Speaker 3: my moneyline dog going with the New York Giants Divisional

1140
00:56:39,680 --> 00:56:44,200
Speaker 3: game road doug plus one twenty at the Washington Football team. Yeah,

1141
00:56:44,239 --> 00:56:46,520
Speaker 3: the football team's coming off of buye. But I mean,

1142
00:56:46,600 --> 00:56:48,520
Speaker 3: let's be real, this is a coin flip game between

1143
00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:53,280
Speaker 3: two of the worst teams in the NFC. The football

1144
00:56:53,280 --> 00:56:56,240
Speaker 3: team actually did out gain the Giants in that last

1145
00:56:56,239 --> 00:56:59,480
Speaker 3: matchup end up losing twenty nineteen on they went for

1146
00:56:59,480 --> 00:57:02,719
Speaker 3: two at the end Daniel Jones had a red zone interception,

1147
00:57:03,200 --> 00:57:06,160
Speaker 3: seems to make that a habit. But Giants showed some

1148
00:57:06,320 --> 00:57:09,040
Speaker 3: life to me against the Bucks in that spot on

1149
00:57:09,080 --> 00:57:13,880
Speaker 3: Monday night, and I think the Giants have enough to

1150
00:57:13,960 --> 00:57:15,600
Speaker 3: beat this team, Like this is one of the few

1151
00:57:15,640 --> 00:57:18,200
Speaker 3: teams you know every time every I remember being a

1152
00:57:18,200 --> 00:57:20,520
Speaker 3: Giants and Jets fan back in the day, and they

1153
00:57:20,520 --> 00:57:22,200
Speaker 3: were both terrible, and you just kind of looked at

1154
00:57:22,200 --> 00:57:24,840
Speaker 3: the schedule and there were certain teams that you just knew, like, Okay,

1155
00:57:24,840 --> 00:57:27,200
Speaker 3: this team's going to be three and thirteen, but there's

1156
00:57:27,240 --> 00:57:29,880
Speaker 3: these are the wins that they can get, and for

1157
00:57:29,920 --> 00:57:32,200
Speaker 3: the Giants, the football team is one of those wins.

1158
00:57:32,760 --> 00:57:36,840
Speaker 3: They're an underdog, they're on a road. Daniel Jones as

1159
00:57:36,920 --> 00:57:42,040
Speaker 3: a road underdog against the spread is seven and one,

1160
00:57:42,520 --> 00:57:44,800
Speaker 3: so you can think about taking him, you know, that

1161
00:57:44,920 --> 00:57:47,200
Speaker 3: way if you don't like the straight up money line.

1162
00:57:47,440 --> 00:57:49,880
Speaker 3: Jones tends to play better. He's seven and one against

1163
00:57:49,920 --> 00:57:54,760
Speaker 3: the spread on the road, bunch of close losses in

1164
00:57:54,760 --> 00:57:57,840
Speaker 3: those spots and against some some of the better teams

1165
00:57:58,160 --> 00:58:01,160
Speaker 3: in the league. So I think in this spot they

1166
00:58:01,160 --> 00:58:05,600
Speaker 3: can get this win. Like it as a dog in

1167
00:58:05,720 --> 00:58:08,880
Speaker 3: a coin flip game, plus one twenty for the Giants

1168
00:58:09,040 --> 00:58:13,080
Speaker 3: at the football team, any thoughts on this game, which

1169
00:58:13,120 --> 00:58:13,760
Speaker 3: is just ugly.

1170
00:58:14,600 --> 00:58:18,360
Speaker 2: The Giants defense has been playing well sim with Washington's d,

1171
00:58:19,120 --> 00:58:20,920
Speaker 2: while both offense lines have been questionable. I thought the

1172
00:58:20,920 --> 00:58:23,959
Speaker 2: Giants showed some better things in the offensive line last week.

1173
00:58:24,280 --> 00:58:25,960
Speaker 2: Ken Jones just hit a deep throw. I mean they

1174
00:58:25,960 --> 00:58:27,880
Speaker 2: win that game at two touchdowns. He doesn't miss all

1175
00:58:27,920 --> 00:58:30,160
Speaker 2: those touchdowns. The only thing I worry about here in

1176
00:58:30,200 --> 00:58:34,000
Speaker 2: this game is is is it going to be a

1177
00:58:34,040 --> 00:58:36,240
Speaker 2: big time let down for the Giants? It's just a

1178
00:58:36,280 --> 00:58:38,640
Speaker 2: fear of mine on a cut right ready. So's the situationally,

1179
00:58:38,640 --> 00:58:41,080
Speaker 2: it's a great spot for Washington a bye last week,

1180
00:58:41,400 --> 00:58:43,920
Speaker 2: and now you're getting the Giants on a short week

1181
00:58:43,920 --> 00:58:46,320
Speaker 2: at their Monday n football though historically those teams have

1182
00:58:46,360 --> 00:58:49,280
Speaker 2: covered at a ridiculous rate on Monday Night football because

1183
00:58:49,280 --> 00:58:52,680
Speaker 2: the line I think is generally inflated for the spot,

1184
00:58:52,760 --> 00:58:55,160
Speaker 2: and I think that's the case here. It's I make

1185
00:58:55,200 --> 00:58:57,280
Speaker 2: it closer to one and a half, two and it's three.

1186
00:58:57,920 --> 00:59:00,840
Speaker 2: But the Giants have lost games by one, two, three,

1187
00:59:00,920 --> 00:59:02,560
Speaker 2: and four and they still have one win and they

1188
00:59:02,560 --> 00:59:05,680
Speaker 2: lost another heartbreaker to Tampa. So like, is this just

1189
00:59:05,960 --> 00:59:07,840
Speaker 2: the game, they come out and it's just a complete

1190
00:59:07,840 --> 00:59:09,760
Speaker 2: flat effort. But other than that, I like it.

1191
00:59:10,160 --> 00:59:12,400
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean if the Giants, they've been playing quotes

1192
00:59:12,840 --> 00:59:16,160
Speaker 3: if battle every week, right, so it's like, if you're

1193
00:59:16,200 --> 00:59:18,240
Speaker 3: covering in this spot, you're essentially winning the game, which

1194
00:59:18,280 --> 00:59:19,880
Speaker 3: is why I brought up the you know, the seven

1195
00:59:19,880 --> 00:59:22,880
Speaker 3: to one against the spread. Listen, you know, there's uh,

1196
00:59:23,080 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 3: there's not that many options I love in terms of

1197
00:59:25,880 --> 00:59:29,560
Speaker 3: moneyline dogs this week. The Giants, I think the Raiders

1198
00:59:29,640 --> 00:59:31,760
Speaker 3: are are a great one. And after that, I mean

1199
00:59:32,200 --> 00:59:34,440
Speaker 3: you can take a shot on the on the Colts maybe,

1200
00:59:34,520 --> 00:59:37,800
Speaker 3: but there's you know, there's some there's not not in

1201
00:59:37,840 --> 00:59:40,280
Speaker 3: the Broncos that they have some COVID situations, which we'll

1202
00:59:40,280 --> 00:59:43,280
Speaker 3: get to. So anyway, that is our money line parway.

1203
00:59:43,360 --> 00:59:47,000
Speaker 3: Giants plus one twenty the Raiders, even though they're a dog,

1204
00:59:47,040 --> 00:59:49,000
Speaker 3: they're minus one o six at bet MGM, the official

1205
00:59:49,000 --> 00:59:52,000
Speaker 3: odds provider or the pod uh Parway. That together and

1206
00:59:52,160 --> 00:59:57,560
Speaker 3: you get a total payout of three and about three

1207
00:59:57,600 --> 01:00:00,960
Speaker 3: point three to one, So three twenty seven on a

1208
01:00:00,960 --> 01:00:03,040
Speaker 3: one dollar bet for a total payout of four to

1209
01:00:03,040 --> 01:00:06,920
Speaker 3: twenty seven. Now let's get in to the best of

1210
01:00:06,960 --> 01:00:09,240
Speaker 3: the rest, which are the games that did not make

1211
01:00:09,280 --> 01:00:11,360
Speaker 3: it into any other segment. All right, best of the rest.

1212
01:00:11,400 --> 01:00:13,560
Speaker 3: We just got a couple of games that had some

1213
01:00:13,640 --> 01:00:24,120
Speaker 3: COVID situations here. First, Vikings Lions try Vikings hosting. The

1214
01:00:24,280 --> 01:00:27,560
Speaker 3: number was at four. Matthew Stafford went on a COVID

1215
01:00:27,560 --> 01:00:29,800
Speaker 3: witht chance he could play if he gets if he

1216
01:00:30,360 --> 01:00:33,760
Speaker 3: tests negative the rest of the week. But I mean,

1217
01:00:33,800 --> 01:00:35,840
Speaker 3: how many points do you have Stafford worth to spread?

1218
01:00:35,880 --> 01:00:37,720
Speaker 3: And I guess essentially the question here.

1219
01:00:38,440 --> 01:00:42,760
Speaker 2: I have Stafford worth about four points to the spread.

1220
01:00:43,400 --> 01:00:46,520
Speaker 2: You also remember Galladay is out as well, and their

1221
01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:49,360
Speaker 2: offense with and without him is huge. Minnesota di ad

1222
01:00:49,360 --> 01:00:51,720
Speaker 2: a lot of good things on offense last week. Kirk Cousins,

1223
01:00:51,720 --> 01:00:53,960
Speaker 2: by the way, is the number one rated quarterback against

1224
01:00:53,960 --> 01:00:56,040
Speaker 2: man defenses for the past three years. And that's all

1225
01:00:56,040 --> 01:00:58,600
Speaker 2: pretty much the Lions play, and they should be able

1226
01:00:58,640 --> 01:01:02,600
Speaker 2: to run the balls to Lions who also have defensive

1227
01:01:02,640 --> 01:01:07,680
Speaker 2: injuries as well. They lost Flowers, I believe, and Jared Davis.

1228
01:01:07,960 --> 01:01:11,680
Speaker 2: I think it is banged up, so it's not a

1229
01:01:11,800 --> 01:01:14,560
Speaker 2: pleasant situation in Detroit right now from an injury front.

1230
01:01:15,720 --> 01:01:17,600
Speaker 2: Does Minnesota have a bit of a letdown after that?

1231
01:01:17,680 --> 01:01:19,600
Speaker 2: Green Bay win. I don't know, it's all gonna come

1232
01:01:19,640 --> 01:01:22,560
Speaker 2: down to Stafford. And even with Stafford back, just without Galaday,

1233
01:01:22,560 --> 01:01:25,040
Speaker 2: the offense just locked Blacks a lot of pop and

1234
01:01:25,080 --> 01:01:28,600
Speaker 2: they could have done some damage against these Minnesota corners. Yeah,

1235
01:01:28,640 --> 01:01:30,000
Speaker 2: I mean, I have to wait to see the line

1236
01:01:30,480 --> 01:01:33,280
Speaker 2: as without knowing Stafford's status, this game is kind of

1237
01:01:33,280 --> 01:01:33,880
Speaker 2: a mess.

1238
01:01:34,320 --> 01:01:37,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, it went off the board it was for. I

1239
01:01:37,320 --> 01:01:42,160
Speaker 3: would guess it reposts closer to six or seven if

1240
01:01:42,960 --> 01:01:45,960
Speaker 3: Stafford is questionable. But this seems like a game that

1241
01:01:45,960 --> 01:01:49,240
Speaker 3: Minnesota can actually win by a touchdown or more. So

1242
01:01:49,760 --> 01:01:52,520
Speaker 3: That's about all it can say on that one. Don't

1243
01:01:52,560 --> 01:01:56,800
Speaker 3: really have much information there. The other game is the

1244
01:01:56,840 --> 01:02:02,640
Speaker 3: Broncos at the Falcons, goes four point underdogs. Shelby Harris

1245
01:02:02,840 --> 01:02:08,520
Speaker 3: the defensive tackle for the Broncos. When on the COVID list,

1246
01:02:08,520 --> 01:02:10,800
Speaker 3: he's actually rated an eighty six point nine by Pro

1247
01:02:10,840 --> 01:02:14,240
Speaker 3: Football Focus, the second best defender on the team. So

1248
01:02:14,320 --> 01:02:16,160
Speaker 3: I did like the Broncos in this spot. I have

1249
01:02:16,240 --> 01:02:19,360
Speaker 3: the Broncos and Falcons power rated about even. We so

1250
01:02:20,240 --> 01:02:22,959
Speaker 3: you know I didn't. I wasn't buying this four point

1251
01:02:23,040 --> 01:02:25,080
Speaker 3: spread in favor of the Falcons. I know they're on

1252
01:02:25,200 --> 01:02:29,440
Speaker 3: long rest. But the Shelby Harris news is concerning just

1253
01:02:29,480 --> 01:02:32,600
Speaker 3: because there could be additional guys that pop up on

1254
01:02:33,040 --> 01:02:36,080
Speaker 3: that list in the coming days. And I think the

1255
01:02:36,080 --> 01:02:38,200
Speaker 3: strength of the Broncos, regardless of what they did with

1256
01:02:38,280 --> 01:02:40,640
Speaker 3: lock in that fourth quarter against the Chargers, the strength

1257
01:02:40,680 --> 01:02:44,600
Speaker 3: of the Broncos are still their defense. So really not

1258
01:02:44,680 --> 01:02:47,560
Speaker 3: as confident about the four. Still like it. I think

1259
01:02:47,600 --> 01:02:49,400
Speaker 3: it should be more of a field goal. I actually

1260
01:02:49,400 --> 01:02:51,520
Speaker 3: have it two and a half, but that the Harris

1261
01:02:51,560 --> 01:02:53,080
Speaker 3: news a little concerning. What do you think?

1262
01:02:53,760 --> 01:02:55,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you got to keep her with Atlanta.

1263
01:02:55,400 --> 01:02:57,240
Speaker 2: You have to keep your eye on these There are

1264
01:02:57,240 --> 01:03:01,240
Speaker 2: two star receivers. Juya Jones has just been banged up.

1265
01:03:01,600 --> 01:03:03,920
Speaker 2: I'm assuming he's gonna play this week, but he's dealing

1266
01:03:03,920 --> 01:03:06,760
Speaker 2: with a nagon injury. Calvin Ridley didn't practice today, so

1267
01:03:06,800 --> 01:03:10,160
Speaker 2: obviously that's something to keep an eye on. This could

1268
01:03:10,160 --> 01:03:13,400
Speaker 2: be and Denver's defense has been pretty good for most

1269
01:03:13,440 --> 01:03:17,800
Speaker 2: of the year. This could be a sneaky under. One

1270
01:03:17,840 --> 01:03:20,920
Speaker 2: of the things that I saw from Atlanta's defense against

1271
01:03:20,920 --> 01:03:25,160
Speaker 2: Carolina is they blitzed a ton, which is great because

1272
01:03:25,280 --> 01:03:27,080
Speaker 2: you don't have great cover corner guys and they might

1273
01:03:27,080 --> 01:03:29,200
Speaker 2: get the Nard back and dark ose. Thenard's on an

1274
01:03:29,240 --> 01:03:32,120
Speaker 2: all Pro corner, but he's a lot better than some

1275
01:03:32,160 --> 01:03:33,680
Speaker 2: of the guys that they've been trotting out there. And

1276
01:03:33,640 --> 01:03:37,680
Speaker 2: the rookie's going to get better. But you know, Kean

1277
01:03:37,680 --> 01:03:39,960
Speaker 2: O'Neil's played really well. They've been playing him up near

1278
01:03:40,000 --> 01:03:42,280
Speaker 2: the box and they've been blitzing him a lot. And

1279
01:03:43,040 --> 01:03:45,080
Speaker 2: that's what you need to do. When you don't have

1280
01:03:45,200 --> 01:03:48,760
Speaker 2: great coverage on the back end, you need to make

1281
01:03:48,840 --> 01:03:50,120
Speaker 2: up for it. And it's not like you have great

1282
01:03:50,200 --> 01:03:53,680
Speaker 2: edge pressure. It's basically just Grady Jarrett, who's an All

1283
01:03:53,760 --> 01:03:57,760
Speaker 2: Pro type player, but he's just generating pressure from the interior.

1284
01:03:58,400 --> 01:04:00,400
Speaker 2: And you don't have great edge rush. You have to

1285
01:04:00,440 --> 01:04:02,720
Speaker 2: generate it because you can't sit back and let your

1286
01:04:02,760 --> 01:04:06,120
Speaker 2: corners who weren't great cover for a long time. And

1287
01:04:06,480 --> 01:04:08,320
Speaker 2: so I think what the last straw is is. I

1288
01:04:08,360 --> 01:04:12,040
Speaker 2: read some quotes from Raheem Morrison company and All Brek,

1289
01:04:12,080 --> 01:04:15,520
Speaker 2: their defensive coordinator. They were saying that the Lions game

1290
01:04:15,600 --> 01:04:18,520
Speaker 2: was the last straw, Like even though most teams would

1291
01:04:18,520 --> 01:04:21,880
Speaker 2: have most likely sat back in that scenario, they just

1292
01:04:21,920 --> 01:04:24,480
Speaker 2: were sick that they did. Lions just got the ball

1293
01:04:24,480 --> 01:04:26,920
Speaker 2: back and went up the field and then scored a

1294
01:04:26,960 --> 01:04:28,440
Speaker 2: touchdown on the final play of the game. And it

1295
01:04:28,520 --> 01:04:30,680
Speaker 2: was that easy. So they were like, this is the

1296
01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:32,360
Speaker 2: last roll. We need to change things on defense, and

1297
01:04:32,360 --> 01:04:35,960
Speaker 2: it looks like they did, so I like that is

1298
01:04:36,240 --> 01:04:38,560
Speaker 2: something for the Atlanta defense. It's still not a great defense,

1299
01:04:38,880 --> 01:04:41,240
Speaker 2: but you can make some stop more stops now instead

1300
01:04:41,240 --> 01:04:43,440
Speaker 2: of just sitting back and getting picked apart. Yeah, it

1301
01:04:43,480 --> 01:04:45,880
Speaker 2: might be a sneaky under, but there's some injury and

1302
01:04:46,080 --> 01:04:47,280
Speaker 2: COVID questions.

1303
01:04:46,920 --> 01:04:49,640
Speaker 3: Here, all right, So that does it for the best

1304
01:04:49,640 --> 01:04:51,800
Speaker 3: of the rest. Let's get into our Survivor Pick of

1305
01:04:51,800 --> 01:04:52,200
Speaker 3: the week.

1306
01:04:52,840 --> 01:04:59,840
Speaker 4: One pick, one chance to advance Survivor.

1307
01:05:01,600 --> 01:05:04,000
Speaker 3: All right, stuck. We both used the Bucks last week.

1308
01:05:04,040 --> 01:05:07,720
Speaker 3: They barely won. We don't have a perfect record. We

1309
01:05:07,800 --> 01:05:11,000
Speaker 3: both took els five. I believe it was. You have

1310
01:05:11,040 --> 01:05:14,960
Speaker 3: the Chiefs and the the Niners. But who are you

1311
01:05:15,040 --> 01:05:16,440
Speaker 3: going with this week?

1312
01:05:16,880 --> 01:05:19,200
Speaker 2: Well, if you're still around, congrats, is you probably a

1313
01:05:19,200 --> 01:05:21,640
Speaker 2: good shot of winning? They're not probably in a pool

1314
01:05:21,640 --> 01:05:23,840
Speaker 2: with not too many people left. My plan for the

1315
01:05:23,880 --> 01:05:26,960
Speaker 2: whole year, I saved the Chiefs for this week, So

1316
01:05:27,160 --> 01:05:29,600
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take the Chiefs at home against the Panthers,

1317
01:05:30,280 --> 01:05:32,240
Speaker 2: and you don't like because Base I wanted to use

1318
01:05:32,280 --> 01:05:34,680
Speaker 2: the Chiefs and Ravens and the Ravens are a little

1319
01:05:34,720 --> 01:05:36,200
Speaker 2: banged up. But that was my plan going is you

1320
01:05:36,240 --> 01:05:37,840
Speaker 2: want to wait and use the Chiefs. I think the

1321
01:05:37,920 --> 01:05:39,920
Speaker 2: Ravens get like the Jags a week fourteen, which is

1322
01:05:40,040 --> 01:05:41,640
Speaker 2: really if you can get there and you still have

1323
01:05:41,680 --> 01:05:43,960
Speaker 2: the Ravens left, you haven't won your pool already, You're

1324
01:05:44,000 --> 01:05:45,640
Speaker 2: in good shape, but you don't want to use like

1325
01:05:45,640 --> 01:05:48,920
Speaker 2: the Chiefs and Ravens in week sixteen or seventeen. You

1326
01:05:49,000 --> 01:05:50,840
Speaker 2: might this year because there's an extra playoffs, not only

1327
01:05:50,880 --> 01:05:53,640
Speaker 2: one by but in general. I just don't like waiting

1328
01:05:53,680 --> 01:05:55,920
Speaker 2: too long with the elite teams to the final week

1329
01:05:56,000 --> 01:05:58,440
Speaker 2: or two because they might just sit starters and they

1330
01:05:58,520 --> 01:06:00,360
Speaker 2: might be playing at the Chiefs by the Chargers in

1331
01:06:00,400 --> 01:06:03,760
Speaker 2: week seventeen. Now the charters aren't going anywhere, but maybe

1332
01:06:03,760 --> 01:06:06,040
Speaker 2: the Chiefs have everything locked up. You have heard we're playing,

1333
01:06:06,080 --> 01:06:10,600
Speaker 2: but going into the season, that's my thought process. So yeah,

1334
01:06:10,600 --> 01:06:12,080
Speaker 2: I'm going to go with the Chiefs here this week.

1335
01:06:12,280 --> 01:06:14,920
Speaker 2: I think it's a good week to use them if

1336
01:06:14,920 --> 01:06:15,959
Speaker 2: you haven't already.

1337
01:06:17,200 --> 01:06:22,680
Speaker 3: Yep, I will go with the I've used the Chiefs

1338
01:06:22,680 --> 01:06:27,320
Speaker 3: and the Steelers already, so I will go with I've

1339
01:06:27,320 --> 01:06:29,880
Speaker 3: go with the Patriots. I mean that's they're not as

1340
01:06:29,880 --> 01:06:31,959
Speaker 3: good as we thought they were, so no use saving them.

1341
01:06:32,600 --> 01:06:34,360
Speaker 3: Jets on a road don't usually like to do the

1342
01:06:34,400 --> 01:06:37,960
Speaker 3: division games. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if anything happens,

1343
01:06:38,000 --> 01:06:41,040
Speaker 3: but I have used them out of the better teams already,

1344
01:06:41,360 --> 01:06:43,880
Speaker 3: So we're going with the going with the Pats here

1345
01:06:44,400 --> 01:06:47,400
Speaker 3: to keep weighing it on piling it on the New

1346
01:06:47,480 --> 01:06:48,040
Speaker 3: York Jets.

1347
01:06:48,920 --> 01:06:52,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll talk about that more on the Sunday Night

1348
01:06:52,480 --> 01:06:54,560
Speaker 2: Football recap that'll be out on Monday for the Monday

1349
01:06:54,600 --> 01:06:57,080
Speaker 2: Night Football game. And we'll obviously have previous up on

1350
01:06:57,120 --> 01:06:59,800
Speaker 2: all of these games on Action Network dot Com, the

1351
01:07:00,120 --> 01:07:01,440
Speaker 2: Network out yep, be.

1352
01:07:01,400 --> 01:07:03,720
Speaker 3: Sure to check that out, check the pods out with

1353
01:07:04,080 --> 01:07:07,200
Speaker 3: Colin and Stucky. You have the Friday College episode, the

1354
01:07:07,240 --> 01:07:10,720
Speaker 3: Monday recap episode and preview of Monday Night Football, and

1355
01:07:10,760 --> 01:07:15,160
Speaker 3: of course the Fantasy Flex the drops on Wednesday. You

1356
01:07:15,200 --> 01:07:18,439
Speaker 3: can follow Stuck on Twitter and the Action Network app

1357
01:07:18,520 --> 01:07:23,360
Speaker 3: at Stucky two and me at Chris Raymond. Good luck

1358
01:07:23,600 --> 01:07:25,920
Speaker 3: in week nine and let's get this money.

1359
01:07:26,160 --> 01:07:44,160
Speaker 2: How about them Cowboys, We're finished talking.