WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: February 26th, 2026 0:00:00.040 --> 0:00:06.720 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordernt. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.280 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.919 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:37.240 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this out 0:00:37.440 --> 0:00:40.320 as big tech struggles to impress a blowout quarter for Nvidia, 0:00:40.400 --> 0:00:43.120 failing to spark a market rally. Emily Run of John 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:45.879 Hancock Investment Management Rights in the following, It's amazing the 0:00:45.880 --> 0:00:48.800 market doesn't seem to care. It's like in Nvidia's winning 0:00:48.840 --> 0:00:51.559 the game, but investors are giving participation prizes out to 0:00:51.680 --> 0:00:54.360 all the other players. Emily joins us now for more. 0:00:54.600 --> 0:00:57.120 Emily welcome. I think a lot of people feel the 0:00:57.160 --> 0:00:59.920 same way this morning, looking at those numbers yesterday evening, 0:01:00.240 --> 0:01:02.440 looking at the price section this morning, and nobody asking them. 0:01:02.440 --> 0:01:04.280 Stavs the question, what is going on? 0:01:05.520 --> 0:01:08.200 Yeah, John, there has never been anything like this in 0:01:08.360 --> 0:01:12.280 US corporate history. Eighty percent year over year earnings growth. 0:01:12.319 --> 0:01:15.080 The estimate was fifty seven percent, and a five trillion 0:01:15.120 --> 0:01:19.080 dollar company like this is just so remarkable. And then 0:01:19.120 --> 0:01:21.039 you look, you wake up this morning and you look 0:01:21.040 --> 0:01:24.120 at the relative winners again, and it's it's the cost By, 0:01:24.360 --> 0:01:27.280 it's you know, Europe, it's the CAC, it's everything else 0:01:27.400 --> 0:01:31.520 except US technology companies. You know, the market cap of 0:01:31.600 --> 0:01:35.120 Navidia hasn't really changed very much over the past six months, 0:01:35.120 --> 0:01:39.960 and meanwhile we've just seen massive, multiple expansion, massive changes 0:01:39.959 --> 0:01:42.400 in terms of the size of pretty much every other 0:01:42.480 --> 0:01:43.679 company on the planet. 0:01:44.319 --> 0:01:45.760 We've been talking about. 0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:49.200 This sort of idea of march madness coming up to us. 0:01:49.200 --> 0:01:52.800 It's momentum madness that we're watching. And you think about 0:01:52.840 --> 0:01:56.920 the brackets. It's Spain, it's the cost By, it's Europe, 0:01:57.080 --> 0:02:00.240 it's Silver, and that's really where the focus is been. 0:02:00.400 --> 0:02:03.480 And the markets are really not all that impressed by Navidia. 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:06.280 Pretty remarkable to us, given the strength of the earnings, 0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:07.680 the margins, the revenues there. 0:02:07.800 --> 0:02:10.079 I mean, as soon as the year started, straight out 0:02:10.080 --> 0:02:12.280 of the gang, the Costpe off to the racis. South 0:02:12.320 --> 0:02:15.160 Korean equities are up by close to fifty percent today. 0:02:15.400 --> 0:02:18.160 We're not even two full months into the year. You 0:02:18.200 --> 0:02:19.959 talk about the momentum, the team's gonna have plenty of 0:02:20.040 --> 0:02:22.040 questions about tech and what's happening state side, but the 0:02:22.080 --> 0:02:24.640 momentum that's happening gusewere do you really want to fight 0:02:24.720 --> 0:02:25.280 that right now? 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:29.519 I mean, momentum, as we know, is a really powerful force. 0:02:29.560 --> 0:02:32.000 Matt Miskin and I've been watching the COSPY for about 0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:34.320 a year now. It's up one hundred and sixty percent 0:02:34.800 --> 0:02:37.120 over a one year basis, and we're always trying to 0:02:37.160 --> 0:02:40.280 square that with what the fundamentals look like and what 0:02:40.320 --> 0:02:43.120 the economic picture looks like in some of these countries, 0:02:43.160 --> 0:02:46.480 you know. You look, for example, at Europe, the estimate 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:49.680 for earnings growth this quarter was three percent. They barely 0:02:49.919 --> 0:02:52.840 beat that, and then European equities are on fire. In 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:55.720 the United States, the earnings growth estimate for this quarter 0:02:55.880 --> 0:02:59.040 was eight percent, and we're coming in at fifteen percent. 0:02:59.120 --> 0:03:03.960 That's almost technology companies just produce thirty three percent year 0:03:04.000 --> 0:03:06.360 over year earnings growth in the United States, it's not 0:03:06.400 --> 0:03:09.840 getting rewarded. Look at Japan, their stock markets on fire. 0:03:10.000 --> 0:03:11.720 Guess what their GDP growth is. 0:03:12.000 --> 0:03:12.760 It's zero. 0:03:13.240 --> 0:03:16.600 They just missed a technical recession. So it's just hard 0:03:16.639 --> 0:03:20.600 to really square this momentum, this sentiment, the technicals that 0:03:20.639 --> 0:03:24.519 are driving these markets with what's really happening underneath the service. 0:03:24.600 --> 0:03:27.520 We want to participate in this, but investors might want 0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:30.440 to think about right sizing positions in a market that's 0:03:30.440 --> 0:03:31.839 been driven by momentum. 0:03:31.919 --> 0:03:34.120 At the same time, Emily, the US markets have already 0:03:34.160 --> 0:03:36.440 benefited from momentum, right, I mean you look at video shares, 0:03:36.480 --> 0:03:39.080 They've gone from three dollars essentially at the beginning of 0:03:39.120 --> 0:03:42.160 twenty nineteen to almost two hundred dollars today. I mean, 0:03:42.200 --> 0:03:45.640 it's been a tremendous blowout in terms of market capitalization. 0:03:46.200 --> 0:03:48.720 How can you understand, even when we're talking about such 0:03:48.760 --> 0:03:52.000 big numbers, what that's baking in and how many more 0:03:52.080 --> 0:03:54.560 multiples to price in at a time where there are 0:03:54.560 --> 0:03:58.520 many beneficiaries, clearly, and the race is very very intense. 0:03:59.240 --> 0:04:02.160 Yeah, absolutely, and the earnings engine is on in the 0:04:02.240 --> 0:04:05.760 United States, So when we think about valuations, we really 0:04:05.760 --> 0:04:09.200 care a lot more about the denominator, and we've seen that, 0:04:09.800 --> 0:04:12.640 especially in some of these AI beneficiaries. But We just 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:16.120 saw so much momentum to your point last year, it's 0:04:16.240 --> 0:04:18.720 just going to be hard to repeat that, to continue 0:04:18.720 --> 0:04:21.880 to compound that. So we understand this idea that there's 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:24.360 catch up potential in other areas of the market, but 0:04:24.480 --> 0:04:27.679 we are always following earnings. We believe that stock prices 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:31.000 follow profits over time, and that's where the earnings are. Now, 0:04:31.040 --> 0:04:34.120 do you need to protect against the valuation risk that's 0:04:34.120 --> 0:04:36.920 inherent in some of these big large cap companies tech 0:04:36.920 --> 0:04:40.679 companies in the United States. Absolutely, So what we're doing 0:04:40.760 --> 0:04:44.240 is we're looking at sort of our favorite, more quality 0:04:44.320 --> 0:04:47.160 cyclical areas of the market. Industrial that's been a top 0:04:47.200 --> 0:04:50.160 idea for us for quite some time. We're going down 0:04:50.200 --> 0:04:52.840 in market cap and looking at mid cap stocks which 0:04:52.839 --> 0:04:56.560 have elevated earnings, growth prospects, and at least like reasonable 0:04:56.680 --> 0:05:00.240 valuations in a world where everything is expensive right now. 0:05:00.279 --> 0:05:01.560 So it's about owning tech. 0:05:01.600 --> 0:05:04.599 It's about looking for the earnings, following the profits, but 0:05:04.720 --> 0:05:07.760 then diversifying from that down in market cap and looking 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:09.000 for quality value. 0:05:09.080 --> 0:05:11.960 Emily, is it a contradiction to go down in market 0:05:11.960 --> 0:05:14.520 cap to go to smaller, riskier companies and also like 0:05:14.560 --> 0:05:17.080 high quality bonds. I mean is there a contradiction here 0:05:17.200 --> 0:05:20.320 betting on the reacceleration of the economy on one hand, 0:05:20.560 --> 0:05:22.719 but then on sort of the opposite on the other. 0:05:23.800 --> 0:05:24.719 So great question. 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:27.599 So it's a key reason that we're overweight mid versus 0:05:27.680 --> 0:05:30.960 small cap stocks. We look at small caps their lower quality. 0:05:31.080 --> 0:05:33.800 You know, forty percent of the Rustle two thousand indexes 0:05:33.800 --> 0:05:37.920 comprised of unprofitable companies. We really prefer to be up 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:40.680 and in cap to mid caps, which are not our parents' 0:05:40.760 --> 0:05:41.960 mid cap stocks anymore. 0:05:41.960 --> 0:05:43.440 These are pretty large companies. 0:05:44.440 --> 0:05:46.880 But on the fixed income side, that's an area that 0:05:46.920 --> 0:05:49.800 we just think is mispriced. You know, with the ten 0:05:49.880 --> 0:05:54.600 year treasure yields still over four percent, there's opportunity, especially 0:05:54.640 --> 0:05:56.800 in the intermediate part of the curve here, to lead 0:05:56.839 --> 0:06:00.679 into that bonds return four to five percent, seven eight percent, 0:06:00.800 --> 0:06:04.279 like very quietly last year. We think that can happen again. 0:06:04.400 --> 0:06:06.680 Now there's not as much value on the shorter end 0:06:06.720 --> 0:06:09.200 of the curve. Now, you know, given the moves there, 0:06:09.200 --> 0:06:12.200 investors can benefit from roll down, they can get income. 0:06:12.560 --> 0:06:15.240 We don't think that bond investors are sniffing out the 0:06:15.320 --> 0:06:18.680 disinflation and the lower growth that's coming down the pipeline, 0:06:19.200 --> 0:06:22.039 and that's an area that we think offers some relative 0:06:22.160 --> 0:06:23.480 value across markets. 0:06:23.560 --> 0:06:26.920 Emily, if investors like utilities, materials and some of these 0:06:26.920 --> 0:06:30.000 more tangible assets, aren't they also part of the AI trade. 0:06:30.040 --> 0:06:32.400 You have to have a case that the AI buildout 0:06:32.720 --> 0:06:33.440 is going to be real. 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:35.680 Oh, that's a huge part of it. 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:39.400 These are traditionally more defensive assets, but they're also benefiting 0:06:39.440 --> 0:06:43.440 from the buildout of data centers around AI. We're looking 0:06:43.480 --> 0:06:47.440 at industrial production, automation, robotics as key themes. So these 0:06:47.440 --> 0:06:50.919 sort of old school, you know, parts of the economy, 0:06:51.000 --> 0:06:54.080 parts of the market are also you know benefiting from 0:06:54.160 --> 0:06:57.200 this this AI build out, you know, the lack of 0:06:57.240 --> 0:07:00.920 supply that's needed in order to build the infrastructure here. 0:07:01.120 --> 0:07:03.800 So you know, we're looking at that as an opportunity 0:07:04.680 --> 0:07:08.640 again to sort of look at the tertiary beneficiaries of 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:09.320 AI here. 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:11.679 So what didn't the market view that as the AI 0:07:11.760 --> 0:07:14.680 trade is real and when you see blockbuster results like 0:07:14.720 --> 0:07:16.920 you have from n Video overnight, that you want to 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:18.680 buy into it even more this morning? 0:07:19.440 --> 0:07:19.720 Yeah? 0:07:19.760 --> 0:07:22.800 Absolutely, And I think in Mari, the challenge is just 0:07:22.920 --> 0:07:25.200 the size of this. You know, you look at how 0:07:25.280 --> 0:07:28.920 important that the market has become to the economy, and 0:07:28.960 --> 0:07:32.400 it's just remarkable. Consumer net worth right now sitting at 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:35.560 a record one hundred and seventy six trillion dollars the 0:07:35.640 --> 0:07:39.760 stock market, it's sixty trillion dollars dwarfs the size of 0:07:39.800 --> 0:07:43.360 the US economy right now. So we've seen this incredible 0:07:43.440 --> 0:07:47.440 capital appreciation that's been driven by AI as being. 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:48.520 The most important thing. 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:51.720 The market is like the tail that's wagging the dog 0:07:51.760 --> 0:07:55.520 of the economy, and it's usually the opposite. So we 0:07:55.600 --> 0:07:58.560 want to think about diversification given the fact that there's 0:07:58.560 --> 0:08:01.200 so much wealth it's constant created in AI, and it 0:08:01.240 --> 0:08:03.640 puts us in a little bit of a precarious position 0:08:04.160 --> 0:08:05.720 if we do see a challenge here. 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:07.000 You know, there's a lot that's. 0:08:06.760 --> 0:08:10.360 Been written, of course, as of lead around software companies 0:08:10.400 --> 0:08:14.440 and the obsolescence potentially there. We think that is overdone, 0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:16.960 but we've got to think about how much of a 0:08:17.080 --> 0:08:20.280 risk there is given this massive wealth concentration in the 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:23.400 AI trade, and think about other ways other assets to 0:08:23.440 --> 0:08:27.200 own to diversify from that, whether it's infrastructure, whether it's bonds, 0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:29.440 whether it's utilities, et cetera. 0:08:30.360 --> 0:08:33.839 Stay with us mult Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this 0:08:43.240 --> 0:08:46.240 in video in the pre market by zero point nine percent. 0:08:46.320 --> 0:08:48.320 If you have one, Wall Street looks like this. Angela 0:08:48.400 --> 0:08:50.880 Zeno of Cfira with a twenty six price target of 0:08:50.880 --> 0:08:53.200 two fifty. Right in the following in video post a 0:08:53.320 --> 0:08:57.280 JANQ revenue of sixty eight billion, crushing expectations driven by 0:08:57.360 --> 0:09:00.920 continued AI infrastructure build out and success fault blank while 0:09:00.960 --> 0:09:03.880 platform ramp. Angelo joins us now for more. Angelo on 0:09:03.960 --> 0:09:07.480 this name, one Cell four holds seventy eight buys, you're 0:09:07.480 --> 0:09:10.160 one of them, a strong buy and a rally is stilled. 0:09:10.280 --> 0:09:11.320 What's behind it? Angelo? 0:09:12.559 --> 0:09:12.760 Yeah? 0:09:12.840 --> 0:09:16.760 John, I think it has everything to do with just 0:09:17.440 --> 0:09:19.319 and it's something we have written about back into summer. 0:09:19.520 --> 0:09:21.920 It's this changing AI narrative that you're seeing. 0:09:21.640 --> 0:09:24.360 Across the markets right And I think right now the 0:09:24.400 --> 0:09:27.360 street really more focused about the risk tied to AI 0:09:27.880 --> 0:09:30.720 more so than the growth of opportunities here long term 0:09:30.760 --> 0:09:31.360 from AI. 0:09:31.840 --> 0:09:35.559 And I think that the street's really trying to. 0:09:34.760 --> 0:09:37.840 Grasp the two sides, But right now they're really focused 0:09:37.880 --> 0:09:41.480 on this the risks tied to the AI side. You're 0:09:41.520 --> 0:09:45.160 getting this massive AI infrastructure built out, but we have 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:49.280 yet to really see that AI monetization story really play 0:09:49.400 --> 0:09:52.400 out to the extent that I maybe that maybe others. 0:09:52.040 --> 0:09:54.320 Had hoped it would play out to this. 0:09:54.960 --> 0:09:57.240 At this point in time, it's going to take time 0:09:57.520 --> 0:10:00.720 in terms of this AI monetization store, and I think, 0:10:00.880 --> 0:10:02.560 you know, there might be others out there that are 0:10:02.600 --> 0:10:04.120 just taking this weight and see approach. 0:10:04.200 --> 0:10:05.920 So we're getting these beaten raises. 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:09.280 The reporter really didn't tell us anything new with many respects 0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:11.920 in the sense that we expected a beaten raise, in 0:10:11.960 --> 0:10:14.600 the sense that we just had a cute war earning 0:10:14.640 --> 0:10:18.440 season with these hyperscalers all significantly you know, ramped up 0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:21.560 their capex. Then, So twenty six is going to be good. 0:10:21.559 --> 0:10:23.959 I think that's pretty much baked in a sack. Twenty 0:10:24.000 --> 0:10:27.160 twenty seven, I think at this point also looks the 0:10:27.240 --> 0:10:29.560 visibility looks pretty good as well. I think there's street 0:10:29.600 --> 0:10:32.760 and more focused about, you know, really that AI monetization 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:33.880 story at this point time. 0:10:34.360 --> 0:10:36.560 To put simply what you just said, Angelo, is it 0:10:36.600 --> 0:10:39.960 a case of fear porn trumping any kind of fundamental performance, 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:42.320 because ultimately I don't know where the risk factor was 0:10:42.600 --> 0:10:44.360 in the earnings that were reported by Nvidia. 0:10:46.600 --> 0:10:50.080 Yeah, I mean, you know, I think when you look 0:10:50.120 --> 0:10:52.480 at here, yeah, I mean I think you're right. 0:10:52.520 --> 0:10:55.920 I mean, you look at Nvidia, and I don't think. 0:10:55.800 --> 0:10:58.640 You're going to necessarily see, you know, anything that that's 0:10:58.640 --> 0:11:01.240 going to cause you a to raise an eyebrow. Would 0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:03.800 be concerned about the story here this quarter, next quarter, 0:11:04.000 --> 0:11:08.400 the quarter thereafter. I think again, it is just monitoring 0:11:08.440 --> 0:11:11.040 the markets at this point in time. I think on 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:14.480 the software side of things, there's definitely some concern. You know, 0:11:15.200 --> 0:11:17.080 you look at what bet and you guys just you know, 0:11:17.360 --> 0:11:19.839 really talked about Salesforce. But you look at you know, 0:11:19.920 --> 0:11:23.280 benning Off, what he had to say about Salesforce, his. 0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:25.760 Conviction level there. You look at what open ai and 0:11:25.920 --> 0:11:28.440 Rowick are doing. We need to monitor all of that. 0:11:28.559 --> 0:11:32.640 We need to see this agentic AI inflection really start 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:34.960 to pick up in the second half of this year 0:11:35.280 --> 0:11:37.760 into twenty twenty seven. I think you see that, you 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:40.679 see those new use cases emerge. I think then, you know, 0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:43.080 in video also starts to work alongside that. 0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:45.600 One thing that Salesforce did seem to point to is 0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:49.480 agent force his idea of actually using agents AI agents 0:11:49.559 --> 0:11:52.880 to try to monetize this exactly what you're saying that 0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:54.800 in video needs to see and frankly, what Jensen Wong 0:11:54.880 --> 0:11:57.120 was talking about that he is seeing that inflection point 0:11:57.160 --> 0:11:59.720 where you are seeing a monetization. What will it take 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:03.079 to prove to Wall Street, to analysts that the monetization 0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:07.120 is taking place? And ultimately this is kind of the. 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:08.480 Stick in the whole story. 0:12:08.600 --> 0:12:12.160 Is it vast layoffs to justify the expense? Is it 0:12:12.160 --> 0:12:14.440 efficiencies that get born out in other ways that could 0:12:14.440 --> 0:12:17.680 potentially be punitive to the overall economy. 0:12:18.200 --> 0:12:19.959 I mean, you need to see it in the numbers 0:12:20.000 --> 0:12:21.319 from the hyperscalers. 0:12:21.320 --> 0:12:23.320 You need to see it in the numbers from and 0:12:23.400 --> 0:12:25.960 you have seen it to an extent from the hyperscalers, right, 0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:29.160 You've seen them be able to monetize AI to an extent, 0:12:29.240 --> 0:12:31.480 maybe not to the degree that. 0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:32.640 Wall Street has wanted them to. 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:35.600 But when you look at the AI inflection thus far, 0:12:35.679 --> 0:12:41.760 it really has been dominated on the on the consumer side, 0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:44.400 and really you really can't monetize the consumer at this 0:12:44.440 --> 0:12:46.600 point in time because they're getting this stuff for free. 0:12:46.760 --> 0:12:49.120 On the enterprise side, I thinks that's where you need 0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:51.560 to see those applications really start to pick up. You 0:12:51.600 --> 0:12:53.000 need to see a number that you don't need to 0:12:53.040 --> 0:12:56.200 see the entire SaaS community really start to benefit from it. 0:12:56.480 --> 0:12:59.439 But you need to see some you know, some big 0:12:59.480 --> 0:12:59.960 wins there. 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:02.400 You need to see that that inflection in the second 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:04.880 half of this year in terms of revenue acceleration something 0:13:04.920 --> 0:13:08.880 that Benioff had had talked about last night. So you 0:13:08.920 --> 0:13:10.920 need to see some of those use cases really start 0:13:10.960 --> 0:13:13.560 to pick up in terms of the token count, the 0:13:13.640 --> 0:13:16.720 increase in tokens that's going to that's going to play out. 0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:19.359 But again, we need to see the revenue really tied. 0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:23.120 To that and be demonstrated, uh, you know, for Wallstreet 0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:25.480 to really like the story here and to warm up 0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:26.280 to AI again. 0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:29.120 Angel on China, it's the largest market for chips. Do 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:31.079 you think at any point this year in video will 0:13:31.120 --> 0:13:33.120 be able to make some revenue from Beijing? 0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:37.760 I mean, listen, personally, I'm starting to lose hope on 0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:39.000 the China story, right. 0:13:39.040 --> 0:13:40.679 I Mean, it's hard to really. 0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:43.360 You know, continue to pound the table on China just 0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:44.560 on the fact that you've got. 0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:46.480 These geopolitical uncertainties out there. 0:13:47.000 --> 0:13:48.719 The hope would have been at this point in time 0:13:48.800 --> 0:13:51.079 we'd start to see at least some sort of incremental 0:13:51.120 --> 0:13:52.599 revenue tied. 0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:54.559 To China, given that we haven't seen it yet. 0:13:55.320 --> 0:13:58.720 You know, I'm just on the on the sidelines and saying, hey, listen, 0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:03.040 if we see it. If not, you know, at least 0:14:03.040 --> 0:14:06.360 in Nvidia continues to find ways, you know, to see 0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:09.160 their revenue trajectory continued to increase. But you know, if 0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:13.360 you're Jensen, you continue to want to and to some extent, 0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:18.000 need China participation more because of the developer compute community 0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:22.160 there and for those developers to really build on China's 0:14:22.200 --> 0:14:26.000 software ecosystem. But up until this point, and we've seen 0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:27.800 it also from a m D. A D did see 0:14:27.800 --> 0:14:29.960 about three hundred ninety million or so in terms of 0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:32.960 China revenue in Q four. They guide it to only 0:14:33.000 --> 0:14:35.280 about one hundred million here in Q one, and the 0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:37.320 big biggest reason for that is they just don't see 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:40.480 the visibility either, and there's a lot of uncertainty. So 0:14:40.520 --> 0:14:42.360 at this point in time, you know, we're not looking 0:14:42.400 --> 0:14:43.320 for much out of China. 0:14:43.640 --> 0:14:45.320 I'm glad you brought up am D though they are 0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:48.000 making some money off of China. What's the difference between 0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:52.080 what they're doing versus Jensen long, you know, it's hard 0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:52.360 to say. 0:14:52.400 --> 0:14:53.880 I mean, at this point in time, it's really just 0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:57.400 about the type of licenses they're getting approved for. I mean, 0:14:57.800 --> 0:15:01.080 clearly am D is a much smaller skill type company 0:15:01.160 --> 0:15:05.360 relative to in Video, but at this disappoint in time, 0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:08.880 it's all about getting the necessary licenses approved there. 0:15:09.920 --> 0:15:13.400 Stay with us more Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this, 0:15:22.840 --> 0:15:25.600 Andrew Bishop of Signum Global writing, President Trump is not 0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:27.880 eager to go to war with Iran. This means that 0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:31.000 even doubt about whether diplomacy can still succeed, he will 0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:33.640 continue to give it a chance. Andrew joined us now 0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:36.040 for more. Andrew, welcome to the program. The US has 0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:40.280 already demonstrated superior military capability, and the Iranian government has 0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:43.320 already demonstrated how stubborn they're willing to be. Where is 0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:45.520 their space for a diplomatic breakthrough? 0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:49.840 So, frankly, in terms of getting to an actual agreement, 0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:52.880 I think there's very little space. We've been optimistic, I 0:15:52.920 --> 0:15:54.600 don't know have optimistic as the right term, but ever 0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:57.840 since January fourteen, that feedful day when it looked like 0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:01.040 President Trump was going to strike that day, and on 0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:03.840 that day, we've continuously said that the President was not 0:16:03.880 --> 0:16:07.080 going to strike for several months and that continues to 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:10.440 be our view, not because we're optimistic about, as you say, 0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:13.120 the substance of these talks, but because we think the 0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:15.960 President wants to drag them out for as long as possible, 0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:20.160 both to see if there's even the sliverest of possibility 0:16:20.160 --> 0:16:22.800 of getting a breakthrough, but also for calendar reasons. We're 0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:25.280 in the middle of Ramadan, you've gotten to ruz Persian 0:16:25.280 --> 0:16:27.480 New Year. Liberating the irun In people by bombing them 0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:30.120 is not necessarily good pr and then President Trump is 0:16:30.120 --> 0:16:32.240 going to China at the end of the of March, 0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:35.040 and we all know that this would potentially be a 0:16:35.120 --> 0:16:39.080 multi week operation. I don't see how bombing one of 0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:42.480 China's biggest suppliers of oil right before visiting season ping 0:16:42.560 --> 0:16:44.040 is going to help extend the trade truce. 0:16:44.360 --> 0:16:46.000 So when do you think this could start if Trump 0:16:46.080 --> 0:16:48.360 had to use this option of a strike. 0:16:49.200 --> 0:16:52.880 Yeah, we've said since January thirteen that the most likely 0:16:53.000 --> 0:16:56.560 is after April fourth, so essentially after he returns from China. 0:16:56.600 --> 0:16:58.320 But then that would be going into the summer, which 0:16:58.320 --> 0:17:00.440 is peak driving season here in the United States. Andrew, 0:17:00.440 --> 0:17:02.640 how does the president weigh potentially what a spike in 0:17:02.680 --> 0:17:05.360 oil would be Tyler was talking about the Iranians being 0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:08.160 willing to close the Strait of Horrormuz to gas prices 0:17:08.160 --> 0:17:10.560 in the United States ahead of a midterm election. 0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:13.920 Yep, that goes exactly back to both why we think 0:17:13.960 --> 0:17:17.040 he's so reluctant overall, and then on your question about timing, 0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:19.399 that gets to the issue of the fact that the 0:17:19.440 --> 0:17:21.879 Iranians are so hardheaded. I guess my point, and I 0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:24.360 do mean the government in this instance. What I mean 0:17:24.400 --> 0:17:26.960 by that is, I think the President would like to 0:17:27.000 --> 0:17:30.440 get a deal before April, but if we don't get 0:17:30.440 --> 0:17:33.840 a deal, then he will act. I mean, what you 0:17:33.920 --> 0:17:35.840 see is what you get in terms of this government's 0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:39.479 position on striking. They want a diplomatic deal. If they 0:17:39.560 --> 0:17:42.000 really can get one after having tried and tried and tried, 0:17:42.280 --> 0:17:42.879 they will bomb. 0:17:43.280 --> 0:17:45.040 At the same time, Andrew, you could look at the 0:17:45.160 --> 0:17:47.840 troop build up in Iran and around Iran, and you 0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:49.920 can look at the fact that a lot of people 0:17:49.920 --> 0:17:52.680 are saying that if there isn't some sort of military 0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:54.440 encourasion here, it's just going to be kicking the can 0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:57.359 down the road, because ultimately Iran's not going to get 0:17:57.440 --> 0:17:59.840 rid of their ballistic missiles. I mean, at what point 0:17:59.880 --> 0:18:02.440 is is that a real pressure point that challenges the 0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:05.320 thesis that calls for dragging this out and a lack 0:18:05.359 --> 0:18:06.480 of a conflict. 0:18:07.240 --> 0:18:09.200 The argument makes perfect sense. 0:18:09.680 --> 0:18:12.400 But if you follow you know, open source intelligence accounts 0:18:12.600 --> 0:18:16.520 and the like, you can points to about one hundred 0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:20.280 or two hundred signals since mid January that suggested in 0:18:20.320 --> 0:18:23.920 them in an attack. Right sort of, Yes, we're prepositioning 0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:26.320 twenty four f thirty fives, and then the following week 0:18:26.359 --> 0:18:29.280 it's forty eight, and then really we needed forty eight 0:18:29.320 --> 0:18:31.399 all along, so twenty four should not have been the signal. 0:18:32.040 --> 0:18:34.320 The goldpost keeps moving on this, so it's not I 0:18:34.359 --> 0:18:37.159 don't disagree with the logic, it's just finding where that 0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:37.919 limit is. 0:18:38.440 --> 0:18:39.560 We think is a little later. 0:18:40.320 --> 0:18:42.479 And this is very similar to what happened with Maduro 0:18:42.600 --> 0:18:45.040 back in September, I believe of last year, we wrote 0:18:45.080 --> 0:18:47.520 that President Trump was likely to take out Maduro, but 0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:49.800 he would take a lot of time, he would not 0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:53.040 be rushed into it. And by November December, people were 0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:56.119 saying it has to happen now because we've deployed all 0:18:56.119 --> 0:18:59.000 this firepower. The truth is the president can afford to 0:18:59.040 --> 0:19:01.800 run the tab and even from an operational standpoint, he 0:19:01.880 --> 0:19:04.520 does have the several weeks that he wants Andrews. 0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:07.560 You know, Tehran and the Iranian economy right now is 0:19:07.600 --> 0:19:11.399 really strong. Like how well funded Iranian proxies in the 0:19:11.400 --> 0:19:14.080 region right now? What are the capabilities to cause disruption 0:19:14.480 --> 0:19:15.399 if Iran needs them to. 0:19:17.200 --> 0:19:20.399 So their funding went through a hard period following the 0:19:20.840 --> 0:19:23.400 major strikes and not just referring to the June war 0:19:23.440 --> 0:19:27.359 of last year, but Israel's overall operations across the region. 0:19:27.600 --> 0:19:30.439