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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along
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Speaker 2: as big tech struggles to impress a blowout quarter for Nvidia,
Speaker 2: failing to spark a market rally. Emily Run of John
Speaker 2: Hancock Investment Management Rights in the following, It's amazing the
Speaker 2: market doesn't seem to care. It's like in Nvidia's winning
Speaker 2: the game, but investors are giving participation prizes out to
Speaker 2: all the other players. Emily joins us now for more.
Speaker 2: Emily welcome. I think a lot of people feel the
Speaker 2: same way this morning, looking at those numbers yesterday evening,
Speaker 2: looking at the price section this morning, and nobody asking them.
Speaker 2: Stavs the question, what is going on?
Speaker 3: Yeah, John, there has never been anything like this in
Speaker 3: US corporate history. Eighty percent year over year earnings growth.
Speaker 3: The estimate was fifty seven percent, and a five trillion
Speaker 3: dollar company like this is just so remarkable. And then
Speaker 3: you look, you wake up this morning and you look
Speaker 3: at the relative winners again, and it's it's the cost By,
Speaker 3: it's you know, Europe, it's the CAC, it's everything else
Speaker 3: except US technology companies. You know, the market cap of
Speaker 3: Navidia hasn't really changed very much over the past six months,
Speaker 3: and meanwhile we've just seen massive, multiple expansion, massive changes
Speaker 3: in terms of the size of pretty much every other
Speaker 3: company on the planet.
Speaker 4: We've been talking about.
Speaker 3: This sort of idea of march madness coming up to us.
Speaker 3: It's momentum madness that we're watching. And you think about
Speaker 3: the brackets. It's Spain, it's the cost By, it's Europe,
Speaker 3: it's Silver, and that's really where the focus is been.
Speaker 3: And the markets are really not all that impressed by Navidia.
Speaker 3: Pretty remarkable to us, given the strength of the earnings,
Speaker 3: the margins, the revenues there.
Speaker 2: I mean, as soon as the year started, straight out
Speaker 2: of the gang, the Costpe off to the racis. South
Speaker 2: Korean equities are up by close to fifty percent today.
Speaker 2: We're not even two full months into the year. You
Speaker 2: talk about the momentum, the team's gonna have plenty of
Speaker 2: questions about tech and what's happening state side, but the
Speaker 2: momentum that's happening gusewere do you really want to fight
Speaker 2: that right now?
Speaker 3: I mean, momentum, as we know, is a really powerful force.
Speaker 3: Matt Miskin and I've been watching the COSPY for about
Speaker 3: a year now. It's up one hundred and sixty percent
Speaker 3: over a one year basis, and we're always trying to
Speaker 3: square that with what the fundamentals look like and what
Speaker 3: the economic picture looks like in some of these countries,
Speaker 3: you know. You look, for example, at Europe, the estimate
Speaker 3: for earnings growth this quarter was three percent. They barely
Speaker 3: beat that, and then European equities are on fire. In
Speaker 3: the United States, the earnings growth estimate for this quarter
Speaker 3: was eight percent, and we're coming in at fifteen percent.
Speaker 3: That's almost technology companies just produce thirty three percent year
Speaker 3: over year earnings growth in the United States, it's not
Speaker 3: getting rewarded. Look at Japan, their stock markets on fire.
Speaker 3: Guess what their GDP growth is.
Speaker 4: It's zero.
Speaker 3: They just missed a technical recession. So it's just hard
Speaker 3: to really square this momentum, this sentiment, the technicals that
Speaker 3: are driving these markets with what's really happening underneath the service.
Speaker 3: We want to participate in this, but investors might want
Speaker 3: to think about right sizing positions in a market that's
Speaker 3: been driven by momentum.
Speaker 5: At the same time, Emily, the US markets have already
Speaker 5: benefited from momentum, right, I mean you look at video shares,
Speaker 5: They've gone from three dollars essentially at the beginning of
Speaker 5: twenty nineteen to almost two hundred dollars today. I mean,
Speaker 5: it's been a tremendous blowout in terms of market capitalization.
Speaker 5: How can you understand, even when we're talking about such
Speaker 5: big numbers, what that's baking in and how many more
Speaker 5: multiples to price in at a time where there are
Speaker 5: many beneficiaries, clearly, and the race is very very intense.
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, and the earnings engine is on in the
Speaker 3: United States, So when we think about valuations, we really
Speaker 3: care a lot more about the denominator, and we've seen that,
Speaker 3: especially in some of these AI beneficiaries. But We just
Speaker 3: saw so much momentum to your point last year, it's
Speaker 3: just going to be hard to repeat that, to continue
Speaker 3: to compound that. So we understand this idea that there's
Speaker 3: catch up potential in other areas of the market, but
Speaker 3: we are always following earnings. We believe that stock prices
Speaker 3: follow profits over time, and that's where the earnings are. Now,
Speaker 3: do you need to protect against the valuation risk that's
Speaker 3: inherent in some of these big large cap companies tech
Speaker 3: companies in the United States. Absolutely, So what we're doing
Speaker 3: is we're looking at sort of our favorite, more quality
Speaker 3: cyclical areas of the market. Industrial that's been a top
Speaker 3: idea for us for quite some time. We're going down
Speaker 3: in market cap and looking at mid cap stocks which
Speaker 3: have elevated earnings, growth prospects, and at least like reasonable
Speaker 3: valuations in a world where everything is expensive right now.
Speaker 4: So it's about owning tech.
Speaker 3: It's about looking for the earnings, following the profits, but
Speaker 3: then diversifying from that down in market cap and looking
Speaker 3: for quality value.
Speaker 5: Emily, is it a contradiction to go down in market
Speaker 5: cap to go to smaller, riskier companies and also like
Speaker 5: high quality bonds. I mean is there a contradiction here
Speaker 5: betting on the reacceleration of the economy on one hand,
Speaker 5: but then on sort of the opposite on the other.
Speaker 4: So great question.
Speaker 3: So it's a key reason that we're overweight mid versus
Speaker 3: small cap stocks. We look at small caps their lower quality.
Speaker 3: You know, forty percent of the Rustle two thousand indexes
Speaker 3: comprised of unprofitable companies. We really prefer to be up
Speaker 3: and in cap to mid caps, which are not our parents'
Speaker 3: mid cap stocks anymore.
Speaker 4: These are pretty large companies.
Speaker 3: But on the fixed income side, that's an area that
Speaker 3: we just think is mispriced. You know, with the ten
Speaker 3: year treasure yields still over four percent, there's opportunity, especially
Speaker 3: in the intermediate part of the curve here, to lead
Speaker 3: into that bonds return four to five percent, seven eight percent,
Speaker 3: like very quietly last year. We think that can happen again.
Speaker 3: Now there's not as much value on the shorter end
Speaker 3: of the curve. Now, you know, given the moves there,
Speaker 3: investors can benefit from roll down, they can get income.
Speaker 3: We don't think that bond investors are sniffing out the
Speaker 3: disinflation and the lower growth that's coming down the pipeline,
Speaker 3: and that's an area that we think offers some relative
Speaker 3: value across markets.
Speaker 6: Emily, if investors like utilities, materials and some of these
Speaker 6: more tangible assets, aren't they also part of the AI trade.
Speaker 6: You have to have a case that the AI buildout
Speaker 6: is going to be real.
Speaker 4: Oh, that's a huge part of it.
Speaker 3: These are traditionally more defensive assets, but they're also benefiting
Speaker 3: from the buildout of data centers around AI. We're looking
Speaker 3: at industrial production, automation, robotics as key themes. So these
Speaker 3: sort of old school, you know, parts of the economy,
Speaker 3: parts of the market are also you know benefiting from
Speaker 3: this this AI build out, you know, the lack of
Speaker 3: supply that's needed in order to build the infrastructure here.
Speaker 3: So you know, we're looking at that as an opportunity
Speaker 3: again to sort of look at the tertiary beneficiaries of
Speaker 3: AI here.
Speaker 6: So what didn't the market view that as the AI
Speaker 6: trade is real and when you see blockbuster results like
Speaker 6: you have from n Video overnight, that you want to
Speaker 6: buy into it even more this morning?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Absolutely, And I think in Mari, the challenge is just
Speaker 3: the size of this. You know, you look at how
Speaker 3: important that the market has become to the economy, and
Speaker 3: it's just remarkable. Consumer net worth right now sitting at
Speaker 3: a record one hundred and seventy six trillion dollars the
Speaker 3: stock market, it's sixty trillion dollars dwarfs the size of
Speaker 3: the US economy right now. So we've seen this incredible
Speaker 3: capital appreciation that's been driven by AI as being.
Speaker 4: The most important thing.
Speaker 3: The market is like the tail that's wagging the dog
Speaker 3: of the economy, and it's usually the opposite. So we
Speaker 3: want to think about diversification given the fact that there's
Speaker 3: so much wealth it's constant created in AI, and it
Speaker 3: puts us in a little bit of a precarious position
Speaker 3: if we do see a challenge here.
Speaker 4: You know, there's a lot that's.
Speaker 3: Been written, of course, as of lead around software companies
Speaker 3: and the obsolescence potentially there. We think that is overdone,
Speaker 3: but we've got to think about how much of a
Speaker 3: risk there is given this massive wealth concentration in the
Speaker 3: AI trade, and think about other ways other assets to
Speaker 3: own to diversify from that, whether it's infrastructure, whether it's bonds,
Speaker 3: whether it's utilities, et cetera.
Speaker 2: Stay with us mult Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this
Speaker 2: in video in the pre market by zero point nine percent.
Speaker 2: If you have one, Wall Street looks like this. Angela
Speaker 2: Zeno of Cfira with a twenty six price target of
Speaker 2: two fifty. Right in the following in video post a
Speaker 2: JANQ revenue of sixty eight billion, crushing expectations driven by
Speaker 2: continued AI infrastructure build out and success fault blank while
Speaker 2: platform ramp. Angelo joins us now for more. Angelo on
Speaker 2: this name, one Cell four holds seventy eight buys, you're
Speaker 2: one of them, a strong buy and a rally is stilled.
Speaker 7: What's behind it? Angelo?
Speaker 8: Yeah?
Speaker 1: John, I think it has everything to do with just
Speaker 1: and it's something we have written about back into summer.
Speaker 8: It's this changing AI narrative that you're seeing.
Speaker 1: Across the markets right And I think right now the
Speaker 1: street really more focused about the risk tied to AI
Speaker 1: more so than the growth of opportunities here long term
Speaker 1: from AI.
Speaker 8: And I think that the street's really trying to.
Speaker 1: Grasp the two sides, But right now they're really focused
Speaker 1: on this the risks tied to the AI side. You're
Speaker 1: getting this massive AI infrastructure built out, but we have
Speaker 1: yet to really see that AI monetization story really play
Speaker 1: out to the extent that I maybe that maybe others.
Speaker 8: Had hoped it would play out to this.
Speaker 1: At this point in time, it's going to take time
Speaker 1: in terms of this AI monetization store, and I think,
Speaker 1: you know, there might be others out there that are
Speaker 1: just taking this weight and see approach.
Speaker 8: So we're getting these beaten raises.
Speaker 1: The reporter really didn't tell us anything new with many respects
Speaker 1: in the sense that we expected a beaten raise, in
Speaker 1: the sense that we just had a cute war earning
Speaker 1: season with these hyperscalers all significantly you know, ramped up
Speaker 1: their capex. Then, So twenty six is going to be good.
Speaker 1: I think that's pretty much baked in a sack. Twenty
Speaker 1: twenty seven, I think at this point also looks the
Speaker 1: visibility looks pretty good as well. I think there's street
Speaker 1: and more focused about, you know, really that AI monetization
Speaker 1: story at this point time.
Speaker 5: To put simply what you just said, Angelo, is it
Speaker 5: a case of fear porn trumping any kind of fundamental performance,
Speaker 5: because ultimately I don't know where the risk factor was
Speaker 5: in the earnings that were reported by Nvidia.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, you know, I think when you look
Speaker 1: at here, yeah, I mean I think you're right.
Speaker 8: I mean, you look at Nvidia, and I don't think.
Speaker 1: You're going to necessarily see, you know, anything that that's
Speaker 1: going to cause you a to raise an eyebrow. Would
Speaker 1: be concerned about the story here this quarter, next quarter,
Speaker 1: the quarter thereafter. I think again, it is just monitoring
Speaker 1: the markets at this point in time. I think on
Speaker 1: the software side of things, there's definitely some concern. You know,
Speaker 1: you look at what bet and you guys just you know,
Speaker 1: really talked about Salesforce. But you look at you know,
Speaker 1: benning Off, what he had to say about Salesforce, his.
Speaker 8: Conviction level there. You look at what open ai and
Speaker 8: Rowick are doing. We need to monitor all of that.
Speaker 1: We need to see this agentic AI inflection really start
Speaker 1: to pick up in the second half of this year
Speaker 1: into twenty twenty seven. I think you see that, you
Speaker 1: see those new use cases emerge. I think then, you know,
Speaker 1: in video also starts to work alongside that.
Speaker 5: One thing that Salesforce did seem to point to is
Speaker 5: agent force his idea of actually using agents AI agents
Speaker 5: to try to monetize this exactly what you're saying that
Speaker 5: in video needs to see and frankly, what Jensen Wong
Speaker 5: was talking about that he is seeing that inflection point
Speaker 5: where you are seeing a monetization. What will it take
Speaker 5: to prove to Wall Street, to analysts that the monetization
Speaker 5: is taking place? And ultimately this is kind of the.
Speaker 4: Stick in the whole story.
Speaker 5: Is it vast layoffs to justify the expense? Is it
Speaker 5: efficiencies that get born out in other ways that could
Speaker 5: potentially be punitive to the overall economy.
Speaker 8: I mean, you need to see it in the numbers
Speaker 8: from the hyperscalers.
Speaker 1: You need to see it in the numbers from and
Speaker 1: you have seen it to an extent from the hyperscalers, right,
Speaker 1: You've seen them be able to monetize AI to an extent,
Speaker 1: maybe not to the degree that.
Speaker 8: Wall Street has wanted them to.
Speaker 1: But when you look at the AI inflection thus far,
Speaker 1: it really has been dominated on the on the consumer side,
Speaker 1: and really you really can't monetize the consumer at this
Speaker 1: point in time because they're getting this stuff for free.
Speaker 1: On the enterprise side, I thinks that's where you need
Speaker 1: to see those applications really start to pick up. You
Speaker 1: need to see a number that you don't need to
Speaker 1: see the entire SaaS community really start to benefit from it.
Speaker 8: But you need to see some you know, some big
Speaker 8: wins there.
Speaker 1: You need to see that that inflection in the second
Speaker 1: half of this year in terms of revenue acceleration something
Speaker 1: that Benioff had had talked about last night. So you
Speaker 1: need to see some of those use cases really start
Speaker 1: to pick up in terms of the token count, the
Speaker 1: increase in tokens that's going to that's going to play out.
Speaker 8: But again, we need to see the revenue really tied.
Speaker 1: To that and be demonstrated, uh, you know, for Wallstreet
Speaker 1: to really like the story here and to warm up
Speaker 1: to AI again.
Speaker 6: Angel on China, it's the largest market for chips. Do
Speaker 6: you think at any point this year in video will
Speaker 6: be able to make some revenue from Beijing?
Speaker 1: I mean, listen, personally, I'm starting to lose hope on
Speaker 1: the China story, right.
Speaker 8: I Mean, it's hard to really.
Speaker 1: You know, continue to pound the table on China just
Speaker 1: on the fact that you've got.
Speaker 8: These geopolitical uncertainties out there.
Speaker 1: The hope would have been at this point in time
Speaker 1: we'd start to see at least some sort of incremental
Speaker 1: revenue tied.
Speaker 8: To China, given that we haven't seen it yet.
Speaker 1: You know, I'm just on the on the sidelines and saying, hey, listen,
Speaker 1: if we see it. If not, you know, at least
Speaker 1: in Nvidia continues to find ways, you know, to see
Speaker 1: their revenue trajectory continued to increase. But you know, if
Speaker 1: you're Jensen, you continue to want to and to some extent,
Speaker 1: need China participation more because of the developer compute community
Speaker 1: there and for those developers to really build on China's
Speaker 1: software ecosystem. But up until this point, and we've seen
Speaker 1: it also from a m D. A D did see
Speaker 1: about three hundred ninety million or so in terms of
Speaker 1: China revenue in Q four. They guide it to only
Speaker 1: about one hundred million here in Q one, and the
Speaker 1: big biggest reason for that is they just don't see
Speaker 1: the visibility either, and there's a lot of uncertainty. So
Speaker 1: at this point in time, you know, we're not looking
Speaker 1: for much out of China.
Speaker 6: I'm glad you brought up am D though they are
Speaker 6: making some money off of China. What's the difference between
Speaker 6: what they're doing versus Jensen long, you know, it's hard
Speaker 6: to say.
Speaker 1: I mean, at this point in time, it's really just
Speaker 1: about the type of licenses they're getting approved for. I mean,
Speaker 1: clearly am D is a much smaller skill type company
Speaker 1: relative to in Video, but at this disappoint in time,
Speaker 1: it's all about getting the necessary licenses approved there.
Speaker 2: Stay with us more Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this,
Speaker 2: Andrew Bishop of Signum Global writing, President Trump is not
Speaker 2: eager to go to war with Iran. This means that
Speaker 2: even doubt about whether diplomacy can still succeed, he will
Speaker 2: continue to give it a chance. Andrew joined us now
Speaker 2: for more. Andrew, welcome to the program. The US has
Speaker 2: already demonstrated superior military capability, and the Iranian government has
Speaker 2: already demonstrated how stubborn they're willing to be. Where is
Speaker 2: their space for a diplomatic breakthrough?
Speaker 9: So, frankly, in terms of getting to an actual agreement,
Speaker 9: I think there's very little space. We've been optimistic, I
Speaker 9: don't know have optimistic as the right term, but ever
Speaker 9: since January fourteen, that feedful day when it looked like
Speaker 9: President Trump was going to strike that day, and on
Speaker 9: that day, we've continuously said that the President was not
Speaker 9: going to strike for several months and that continues to
Speaker 9: be our view, not because we're optimistic about, as you say,
Speaker 9: the substance of these talks, but because we think the
Speaker 9: President wants to drag them out for as long as possible,
Speaker 9: both to see if there's even the sliverest of possibility
Speaker 9: of getting a breakthrough, but also for calendar reasons. We're
Speaker 9: in the middle of Ramadan, you've gotten to ruz Persian
Speaker 9: New Year. Liberating the irun In people by bombing them
Speaker 9: is not necessarily good pr and then President Trump is
Speaker 9: going to China at the end of the of March,
Speaker 9: and we all know that this would potentially be a
Speaker 9: multi week operation. I don't see how bombing one of
Speaker 9: China's biggest suppliers of oil right before visiting season ping
Speaker 9: is going to help extend the trade truce.
Speaker 6: So when do you think this could start if Trump
Speaker 6: had to use this option of a strike.
Speaker 9: Yeah, we've said since January thirteen that the most likely
Speaker 9: is after April fourth, so essentially after he returns from China.
Speaker 6: But then that would be going into the summer, which
Speaker 6: is peak driving season here in the United States. Andrew,
Speaker 6: how does the president weigh potentially what a spike in
Speaker 6: oil would be Tyler was talking about the Iranians being
Speaker 6: willing to close the Strait of Horrormuz to gas prices
Speaker 6: in the United States ahead of a midterm election.
Speaker 9: Yep, that goes exactly back to both why we think
Speaker 9: he's so reluctant overall, and then on your question about timing,
Speaker 9: that gets to the issue of the fact that the
Speaker 9: Iranians are so hardheaded. I guess my point, and I
Speaker 9: do mean the government in this instance. What I mean
Speaker 9: by that is, I think the President would like to
Speaker 9: get a deal before April, but if we don't get
Speaker 9: a deal, then he will act. I mean, what you
Speaker 9: see is what you get in terms of this government's
Speaker 9: position on striking. They want a diplomatic deal. If they
Speaker 9: really can get one after having tried and tried and tried,
Speaker 9: they will bomb.
Speaker 5: At the same time, Andrew, you could look at the
Speaker 5: troop build up in Iran and around Iran, and you
Speaker 5: can look at the fact that a lot of people
Speaker 5: are saying that if there isn't some sort of military
Speaker 5: encourasion here, it's just going to be kicking the can
Speaker 5: down the road, because ultimately Iran's not going to get
Speaker 5: rid of their ballistic missiles. I mean, at what point
Speaker 5: is is that a real pressure point that challenges the
Speaker 5: thesis that calls for dragging this out and a lack
Speaker 5: of a conflict.
Speaker 7: The argument makes perfect sense.
Speaker 9: But if you follow you know, open source intelligence accounts
Speaker 9: and the like, you can points to about one hundred
Speaker 9: or two hundred signals since mid January that suggested in
Speaker 9: them in an attack. Right sort of, Yes, we're prepositioning
Speaker 9: twenty four f thirty fives, and then the following week
Speaker 9: it's forty eight, and then really we needed forty eight
Speaker 9: all along, so twenty four should not have been the signal.
Speaker 9: The goldpost keeps moving on this, so it's not I
Speaker 9: don't disagree with the logic, it's just finding where that
Speaker 9: limit is.
Speaker 7: We think is a little later.
Speaker 9: And this is very similar to what happened with Maduro
Speaker 9: back in September, I believe of last year, we wrote
Speaker 9: that President Trump was likely to take out Maduro, but
Speaker 9: he would take a lot of time, he would not
Speaker 9: be rushed into it. And by November December, people were
Speaker 9: saying it has to happen now because we've deployed all
Speaker 9: this firepower. The truth is the president can afford to
Speaker 9: run the tab and even from an operational standpoint, he
Speaker 9: does have the several weeks that he wants Andrews.
Speaker 2: You know, Tehran and the Iranian economy right now is
Speaker 2: really strong. Like how well funded Iranian proxies in the
Speaker 2: region right now? What are the capabilities to cause disruption
Speaker 2: if Iran needs them to.
Speaker 9: So their funding went through a hard period following the
Speaker 9: major strikes and not just referring to the June war
Speaker 9: of last year, but Israel's overall operations across the region.
Speaker 9: But they have really recovered quite well, if you'd think
Speaker 9: has love. For example, the smuggling routes for bringing in
Speaker 9: cash had to be reject but they have been rejected.
Speaker 7: The issue, though, is to be very transparent.
Speaker 9: I don't think that the reaction function of these proxies
Speaker 9: is going to depend that much on funding.
Speaker 7: I think it's going to be much more of a
Speaker 7: political decision.
Speaker 9: And we have a slightly nuanced position at signum, which
Speaker 9: is we think that Iran will retaliate extremely forcefully. So
Speaker 9: the President's sort of scenario of a limited strike limited
Speaker 9: retaliation is off the table, but not necessarily in fact,
Speaker 9: not with its proxies. I think the proxies will largely
Speaker 9: set this one out for political self preservation reasons.
Speaker 2: Andrew, could you describe what forceful retaliation would look like then?
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's very simple.
Speaker 9: It's trying to kill Americans and Israelis, which is very
Speaker 9: different than what happened in June. Entering the prior operations,
Speaker 9: where the main goal was trying to demonstrate capability and
Speaker 9: sort of, you know, show symbolic symbolic action. Here, we
Speaker 9: think that they will try to kill as many as possible,
Speaker 9: and from the military experts we speak with, it is
Speaker 9: statistically extremely improbable that.
Speaker 7: We will have a war with Iran and no US casualties.
Speaker 2: Andrew, this is a serious conversation, and I think it's
Speaker 2: a question we need to ask. When you say kill
Speaker 2: is Rieties and Americans, are you talking about in the
Speaker 2: region around Iran or beyond both.
Speaker 9: I think they'll have less success beyond just because their
Speaker 9: capabilities are less good beyond.
Speaker 7: I'm well aware that you know, HAS and.
Speaker 9: Other groups have had success as far as out as
Speaker 9: Latin America and like, so that's not inconceivable. But I
Speaker 9: do think that there's a case to be made that
Speaker 9: short range ballistic missiles have a better chance of killing
Speaker 9: American troops, for example, than Iranian operators have aed conducting
Speaker 9: a successful terrorist operation in the US, which has been
Speaker 9: largely at the table for the past twenty five years.
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