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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites the Super Contest Edition. I am

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Speaker 1: Chad Moment of the Action Network. I am joined by

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Speaker 1: my Action Network brother in arms, black Jack Fletcher. Brother,

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Speaker 1: you're looking so good. I can't wait for people to

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Speaker 1: see the videos that we put out from this because

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Speaker 1: you look ready to roll. I wake up in the morning,

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Speaker 1: ready to roll, Chad, you look ready to roll for

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Speaker 1: our first edition of the Super Contest podcast of the Favorites.

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Speaker 1: If this is your first time ever listening to the podcast,

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Speaker 1: it is certainly the first time listening to this edition

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Speaker 1: to the podcast. Here's how it's gonna work. Every Friday morning,

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Speaker 1: we are going to discuss the entire weekly slate of

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Speaker 1: NFL games. We have to both agree on five picks

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Speaker 1: against the spread. We're going to submit those five as

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Speaker 1: our picks in the Las Vegas Westgate Super Contest. This

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Speaker 1: is the biggest pick up contest in the world and

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Speaker 1: at the end of it, at the end of this season,

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Speaker 1: if we win, we will win one more than one

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Speaker 1: million dollars. So every pick matters, which means that every

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Speaker 1: time we disagree, there's going to be a few that's accurate,

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Speaker 1: and every time we disagree, it means that you have

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Speaker 1: just reduced our chances of winning over a million dollars.

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Speaker 1: That may or may not be true. The good news

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Speaker 1: is at the end of the season, we'll get to

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Speaker 1: calculate how each one of us did and whether or

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Speaker 1: not it was you that cost me a million dollars

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Speaker 1: or only there was an app that did that somewhere. Yes,

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Speaker 1: people should go download the Action Network Gap and they

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Speaker 1: can follow everything we're talking about and everything we're going

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Speaker 1: to be doing throughout the season. Great up, Great up.

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Speaker 1: It shows that I am a markedly better gambler than you.

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Speaker 1: We should just get on with it. Probably we don't

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Speaker 1: have much time because people got to get these picks in.

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Speaker 1: Uh listen, you can always put the Thursday night game

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Speaker 1: in for the Westgates Super Contest. Obviously we're not doing

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Speaker 1: that because this is airing on Friday morning. So let's

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Speaker 1: go to our first game. Let's just get on with

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Speaker 1: it and go to our first game. Pittsburgh Cleveland Steelers

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Speaker 1: by three and a half. I love that. That is

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Speaker 1: a special treat for you. That's fantastic. Just lovely, That's

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Speaker 1: exactly what it is. It's just lovely. It brings some

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Speaker 1: class to this otherwise crass podcast. I bring the class,

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Speaker 1: maybe not so much. All right, here we go though.

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Speaker 1: You know the Browns three and a half point favorites.

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Speaker 1: Here's what's remarkable that's about this game. The Steelers were

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Speaker 1: six and a half point favorites when it opened. It's

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Speaker 1: now down to three and a half. Most of that

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Speaker 1: movement in the past forty hours because of Lady on Bell.

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Speaker 1: They're making it interesting for me. Brother. I don't care,

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Speaker 1: Chad if you yourself for lining up in the backfield

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Speaker 1: for the Pittsburgh Steelers in this game. It doesn't matter.

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Speaker 1: What matters is what's on the other side of it.

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Speaker 1: And the other side of is the Cleveland Browns. And

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Speaker 1: I know people like you were sitting there and you're thinking,

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Speaker 1: maybe this is the year the Browns can turn around

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Speaker 1: and win three games. Who knows, It's not right, Hugh

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Speaker 1: Jackson still the head coach. This team is gonna be

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Speaker 1: a train wreck. It's always a train wreck. The Steelers

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Speaker 1: are loaded with talent. Take the Steelers, lay the three

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Speaker 1: and a half points, and sleep easy tonight. I don't

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Speaker 1: I don't agree with you yet, you guys don't. I'm

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Speaker 1: I'm putting Look when we went, we did a lot

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Speaker 1: of tests of this podcast. We had a lot of

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Speaker 1: practice rounds right and over the course of over the

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Speaker 1: course of our practice rounds, and the Steelers that were like,

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Speaker 1: it's six and a half and then four and a half,

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Speaker 1: and I like them much better at three and a half.

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Speaker 1: There's still a lot a team that I'm putting into

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Speaker 1: my picks to win a million dollars. I'm just not

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Speaker 1: putting a million dollars. I am not putting. Want you

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Speaker 1: to tell me one spot where the Browns are better

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Speaker 1: than the Steelers. One spot this game isn't maybe Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: at New York Giants Jaguars by three. I was waiting

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Speaker 1: for jack I would almost based on how our friend

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Speaker 1: Georgina that's her name, the name of our voice, said Jaguars,

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Speaker 1: I would want to choose the Jaguars. But but I'm

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Speaker 1: telling you right now, I have been on the Giants

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Speaker 1: since this game posted posted it at Giants plus four,

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Speaker 1: it's now plus three. I think that this line is

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Speaker 1: way out of whack. You're paying attacks on the Jaguars

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Speaker 1: for what they did last year. You're not getting credit

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Speaker 1: for what the Giants have done in the preseason to

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Speaker 1: make their in the off season, to make their roster better. Yet,

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Speaker 1: as much as it pains me to say this, chat,

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Speaker 1: I couldn't agree with you more. I've been on the

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Speaker 1: Giants for a while here, three point home favorite. They

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Speaker 1: draft Sae Kwan, Barkley Beckham is back healthy. They add

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Speaker 1: Ogle Tree from the Rams to a defense that was

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Speaker 1: already pretty good. Um Sterley Shepherd is back. I don't

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Speaker 1: see how the Giants don't take a massive step forward

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Speaker 1: this year, and the Jaguars are primed for a step

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Speaker 1: backwards with Blake Bortles and Doug Morons still driving that bus.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm with you here. Giants plus three we one.

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Speaker 1: We got one of the board. Giants plus three against

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Speaker 1: the Jaguars. That is going to be one of our

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Speaker 1: five picks in the Westgate Super Contest. That is gonna

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Speaker 1: make us millionaires. Let's move on San Francisco of Minnesota,

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Speaker 1: Vikings by six and a half. I know where you

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Speaker 1: stand in this game. You think you do, you think

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Speaker 1: you do, but you don't. What is this the real world? Chad?

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Speaker 1: I have been on the Vikings because I am so

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Speaker 1: far against the forty niners. I was on the Vikings

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Speaker 1: at five and a half. Now I'm looking at the

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Speaker 1: six and a half, Chad, and it's concerning me. So

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna ask you convince me, sell me

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Speaker 1: on the Vikings here. Listen, I don't like the Vikings

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Speaker 1: at six and a half. I loved him at five

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Speaker 1: and a half. That's what it opened out. I thought

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Speaker 1: it was a great pick at five and a half.

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Speaker 1: At six and a half, I don't want to convince

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Speaker 1: you because I don't want to put it in in

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Speaker 1: our in our in our pick basket. Here. I can

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Speaker 1: tell you're choosing your words more careful. I'm trying for

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Speaker 1: something else. All right, Well, then I guess it's just

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Speaker 1: not gonna happening. We should move on. Yeah, this is

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Speaker 1: a no. This is an as it often is, this

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Speaker 1: is an absolute Cincinnati at Indianapolis Colts by three. I

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Speaker 1: have almost come completely around on this game in the past,

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Speaker 1: And I don't know why you're you're you're looking at

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Speaker 1: me like that, but I'm telling you right now, I

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Speaker 1: look at this game and I see Cincinnati is the

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Speaker 1: much better team getting points, a much better team getting points,

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Speaker 1: much better. Andy Dalton still the quarterback, better defense, better

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Speaker 1: offensive weapons. You've got an offensive line that I'm just

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Speaker 1: gonna stop you. This isn't gonna be one of the

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Speaker 1: five because I'm not watching this game. I don't want

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Speaker 1: to talk about this game. I don't want to think

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Speaker 1: about this game. Bengals Colts. Who cares? Nobody? Well, that's

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Speaker 1: also the point. This is about game theory, right nobody,

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Speaker 1: no chat. It's about winning. You can use your nerdy

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Speaker 1: little phrases. It's about winning game theory, whatever other fancy

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Speaker 1: words you want to throw out. All that matters is

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Speaker 1: we pick five winners, and I'm going to stop you

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Speaker 1: from getting in the way of that right here. Move along.

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Speaker 1: There's nobody who's going to pick Cincinnati over Indeed, there's

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Speaker 1: a reason for that. Yeah, you know why they're not

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Speaker 1: gonna win the game. You don't know how to play

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Speaker 1: this game. This game is about winning a million dollars.

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Speaker 1: This game is about beating two thousand other people who

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Speaker 1: have entered this contest. No, Chad, this game is about

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Speaker 1: me keeping you in line. That's what it's about. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'm afraid not, Chad. Is it better to go five

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Speaker 1: than our or four and one in this contest? Black Jack,

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Speaker 1: which if you want to go five, and oh you

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Speaker 1: want to go five and oh, and you want to

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Speaker 1: pick the right games to do. You want to go

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Speaker 1: five and put the Steelers in. Well, we're not doing

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Speaker 1: the Steelers. I'm putting you are taking the Bengals. There's

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Speaker 1: no chance, Chad I will stab you. Let's move on. Okay.

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay at New Orleans Saints by nine and how

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Speaker 1: go ahead? Saints, Saints all day. Young defense getting better,

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Speaker 1: Drew Brees, Sean Payton, Cameara going to be the feature

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Speaker 1: back now with Ingram suspended for the first four games.

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Speaker 1: Michael Thomas, in my view, the best wide receiver in

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Speaker 1: the NFC against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with uh Fitzpatrick

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Speaker 1: at quarterback. You know he went to Harvard, right That's

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Speaker 1: that's about all you can say for him. Uh yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'd lay the nine and a half here at New Orleans,

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Speaker 1: I'd lay the nine and a half. I don't think

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Speaker 1: I can support that idea, and of course you can.

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Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be better opportunities. I hope so,

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Speaker 1: because I'm looking at this list and get a little worried.

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Speaker 1: Where the maybe we've got a lot of maybes right now?

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Speaker 1: The problem with me with this game. It's too many

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Speaker 1: points this game. Don't shake your head, don't. I'm kind

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Speaker 1: of agreeing with you a little. I don't know. It's

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Speaker 1: this game opened at seven, it's now at nine and

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Speaker 1: a half. I'm just not going to bet a game

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Speaker 1: where it's almost a double digit spread in the first

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Speaker 1: week of the sea. Yeah, I'm scared because it's a

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Speaker 1: bad idea, because the percentages show you that this is

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Speaker 1: a bad play. Why do I want to purposely put

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Speaker 1: a bad play expected to when's that coming out? I

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Speaker 1: don't need to say it, okay, because you already did. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I guess so. Right now, we have a yes on

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Speaker 1: the Giants as three point dogs against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

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Speaker 1: We have a no on Minnesota's six and a half

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Speaker 1: against San Francisco, and then we're loaded with maybes. We

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Speaker 1: have so many maybes and this schedules running out of room.

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Speaker 1: Let's move on Buffalo at Baltimore Ravens by seven and

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Speaker 1: a half. I don't like that hook. I don't either.

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Speaker 1: I loved it at seven. I played it at seven,

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Speaker 1: but I don't like seven and a half. I loved

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Speaker 1: it at seven, I played it at seven. We're moving

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Speaker 1: on Houston and ni England Patriots by six and a half.

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Speaker 1: Don't screw this up, brother, don't screw it up. This

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Speaker 1: is such a no brainer. It is like I would

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Speaker 1: put the million dollars just on this game. I'm getting

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Speaker 1: nervous if you don't take Houston in this game. It's

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Speaker 1: almost like you're being as irresponsible as you can possibly

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Speaker 1: be as a better chat. You need to come back

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Speaker 1: to reality. You want to take the Houston Texans here

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Speaker 1: getting six and a half points, that's what you want

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Speaker 1: to do. Not only do I want to do it,

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Speaker 1: I have gone into the Action Network app and made

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Speaker 1: that pick. Well, it's going to be yet another loss

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Speaker 1: on the Action Network app. Because let me tell you something, brother,

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Speaker 1: the New England Patriots are the greatest dynasty in all

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Speaker 1: of professional sports over the last five years. They're coming

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Speaker 1: off of a Super Bowl loss to the Eagles. There

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Speaker 1: even home, Chad, They're at home. They've got the Houston

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Speaker 1: Texans with J. J. Watton is busted back coming in

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Speaker 1: in a varsity jacket. They've got the Shawn Watston Watson

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Speaker 1: and his gimp knee coming in for what his seventh

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Speaker 1: career start, and you want to mess with the team

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Speaker 1: coming in angry looking for blood. No chance, Chad lay

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Speaker 1: the six and a half points with the greatest team

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Speaker 1: to ever take a football field in the New England Patriots.

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Speaker 1: So that feels like it's going to be a no

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Speaker 1: to me. This guy is gonna cost me so much money.

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Speaker 1: Moving on. Tennessee at Miami Titans by one and a half.

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Speaker 1: Love Love, Love, Come on, love christ it's Tennessee Titans.

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Speaker 1: Me too, me too? Tell me why? Because they are

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Speaker 1: the better team at every single position on the field.

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Speaker 1: Ryan Tannehill hasn't played a game in law longer than

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Speaker 1: Andrew Luck. It's been a year and a half. And

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Speaker 1: let us not forget, boys and girls, that when Ryan

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Speaker 1: Tannehill was playing football, he wasn't particularly great at it. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so now he's the savior, returning to the field for

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Speaker 1: the first time in a year and a half against

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Speaker 1: the Tennessee Titans, who are a playoff team last year.

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Speaker 1: The fact that you only have to lay one and

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Speaker 1: a half here is a gift. And I think if

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Speaker 1: you want to talk about your game theory, I think

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Speaker 1: very few people are gonna play this game like this

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Speaker 1: game is not desirable to a lot of people, but

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Speaker 1: I find it very desirable. I'm very excited right now

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Speaker 1: this game of it. I am so excited. Not desirable

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Speaker 1: to anybody. In the previous episode of The Favorites with

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Speaker 1: Bob Scucci, book maker Bob Scucci, uh, we called it

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Speaker 1: the corner TV game. That means that it's going on

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Speaker 1: in the corner because nobody's gonna be watching it and

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Speaker 1: very few people are betting it. If you go into

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Speaker 1: the Action Network Gap, one of the features we have

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Speaker 1: is you can see the bet volume on every single

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Speaker 1: game being played this weekend. And uh, this one is

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Speaker 1: one of the three least bet games on the board,

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Speaker 1: the other one Cincinnati Indianapolis. We haven't gotten to the

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Speaker 1: third one yet. But I love the Titans here. I

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Speaker 1: agree with everything you just said. Better team. Just there's

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Speaker 1: no reason not to plan none. I think we've got

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Speaker 1: a second one. We've got number two. We got the Giants.

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Speaker 1: It's a three point dog against the Jaguars, and we've

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Speaker 1: got the Titans as one and a half point favorites

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Speaker 1: against the Miami Dolphins. Let's move on Dallas A Carolina

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Speaker 1: Panthers by three. Let's walk away. Yeah, my initial lean here,

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Speaker 1: Chad is to the Panthers at home, but I have

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Speaker 1: to tell you our own. Jeff Schwartz wrote an article

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Speaker 1: talking about how these offensive lines are basically walking mash units,

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Speaker 1: and I have very little interest in it now because

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Speaker 1: I think cam Newton might just get destroyed behind the

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Speaker 1: line of scrimmage. I don't know. I want to see

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Speaker 1: how the panthers new offense with north Turner works before

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Speaker 1: I bet on it. I'm with you. I don't have

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Speaker 1: a lot of interest in this if anything is. Jeff

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Speaker 1: Schwartz pointed out, I completely agreed black Jack. Thank you Georgina.

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Speaker 1: That is bullshit. By the sweetheart, that is woman of

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Speaker 1: good taste. There better be. I completely agreed Chad. In

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Speaker 1: our little drops here, here's one for the Millie Monster.

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Speaker 1: Oh my god, that is good. All right, here's the

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Speaker 1: point in this game, Dallas of Carolina. Jeff Schwartz has

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Speaker 1: also pointed out that the under is a good play here.

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Speaker 1: It opened it forty four. It's not down to forty two. Um,

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Speaker 1: I played it at forty four just so people can

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Speaker 1: know that I'm giving people for you. It's a little

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Speaker 1: bit of an extra extra benefit. Can we get a

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Speaker 1: drop where Georgina is talking about the benefits that jack,

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Speaker 1: that black Jack and I offer. You should really stop

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Speaker 1: trying to get Georgina to say things. Let's move on.

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Speaker 1: Kansas City at Los Angeles charges Los Angeles by three

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Speaker 1: and a half. I think we got a winner here. Okay,

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Speaker 1: tell me why I am all over the Kansas City Chiefs. No, no, no, no, no, no,

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Speaker 1: tell me why? Tell you why? Because they're starting a

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Speaker 1: rookie quarterback, Chad. He hasn't played a real game. He's

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Speaker 1: from the Big twelve. You want to tell me the

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Speaker 1: last Big twelve quarterback that was any good in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: I'll wait, yeah, We'll be here all day because it

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Speaker 1: doesn't it doesn't work out. Now, you want Pat Mahomes

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Speaker 1: with the Kansas City Chiefs to come in there and

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Speaker 1: beat the Chargers, who are, mind you, Everyone's darling team.

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Speaker 1: Everyone is so high on the Chargers. I'm not high

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Speaker 1: in them either. Okay, I don't like either one of

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Speaker 1: these teams all that much. The Chargers can't get out

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Speaker 1: of their own way. But you've got Pat Mahomes making

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Speaker 1: his first real NFL start. No, thank you. You're ignoring

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Speaker 1: everything that is good about this number. What's so good

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Speaker 1: about it? You have the majority of the money coming

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Speaker 1: in on the Chargers. You've got this number moving up

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Speaker 1: in instead of down the Chargers. This these teams are

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Speaker 1: even at best, and what you're you're seeing is getting

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Speaker 1: You're getting the Chargers. You're getting the Chargers. One team

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Speaker 1: has the far better quarterback at home with no home

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Speaker 1: field advantage, still better than being an arrowhead. So on

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Speaker 1: a neutral field, I would say these teams are even

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Speaker 1: and you're basically you're basically playing on a neutral field.

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Speaker 1: What was the biggest problem that Pat Mahomes had in

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Speaker 1: the preseason and training camp? What was the biggest problem.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, black Jack. Why don't you I know,

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Speaker 1: because you don't pay enough attention to these things. Chad,

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Speaker 1: you don't know. I'm running a business. Okay, I'm keeping

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Speaker 1: you in business. I'm not walking away a cowboy hat

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Speaker 1: and sunglasses and a fake championship belt, fake fake, this

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Speaker 1: has your logo on it. Fake. And besides, I have

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Speaker 1: to carry this around. Chad, looks like a champion, Feel

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Speaker 1: like a champion, Play like a champion. Carrying you of

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Speaker 1: course I'm carrying you. Say, is that what you're gonna

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Speaker 1: say right, you're running a business. Rely in business because

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Speaker 1: of me, baby, paplahomes biggest problem in the preseason and

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Speaker 1: training camps throwing interceptions, And if he continues to do

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Speaker 1: that in this game, the Chiefs are gonna get lit up.

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Speaker 1: No way, if if, if this feels like a note

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Speaker 1: to me, it's a it's a big note. We only

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Speaker 1: have two games and we are running out of schedule.

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Speaker 1: On to the problematic Seattle Broncos by three, don't funk

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Speaker 1: this up. This game used to be Broncos minus two

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Speaker 1: and a half. Don't do it. The line is moved.

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Speaker 1: The Broncos are now favored by three. Don't care. It's

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Speaker 1: not a great number. I would rather have played at

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Speaker 1: a two and a half. But I still really like

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Speaker 1: the Broncos in this scenario. God, you had me worried.

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Speaker 1: Their defense is just so good. They got much better

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Speaker 1: with the draft addition of Bradley Chubb fourth overall pick

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Speaker 1: case keenum can only if he's mediocre, he's still going

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Speaker 1: to be better than any exactly smartest thing you've said

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Speaker 1: all day talk to me. Everything you said is is

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Speaker 1: spot on. Here. Better offensive unit clearly in Denver at

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Speaker 1: this point Seattle has lost so many playmakers over the

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Speaker 1: last couple of years. Earl Thomas just shows up to

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Speaker 1: camp today for the first time that defense has been

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Speaker 1: decimated by departures. You're going into Denver, a tough place

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Speaker 1: to play against the Broncos team with Royce Freeman, who

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Speaker 1: I really like auditions have him, Courtland Sutton, Bradley Chubb

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Speaker 1: on the defensive side. The Broncos have a lot of

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Speaker 1: pieces here, Chad. There's no reason that this shouldn't be

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Speaker 1: a comfortable win for the Denver Broncos. We have a yes.

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Speaker 1: We have our third yes. Okay, we now have the

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Speaker 1: Denver Broncos is three point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks.

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Speaker 1: We are a yes on the Tennessee Titans as one

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Speaker 1: and a half point favorites over the Miami Dolphins. We

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Speaker 1: are yes on the New York Giants. Is three point

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Speaker 1: dogs against the Jacksonville Jaguars. T U s up Chicago

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Speaker 1: at Green Bay Packers by seven and a half. Why

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Speaker 1: don't you go first, black Jack? This is easy. Packers

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Speaker 1: lay the points. Moving on? What do you mean moving off?

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Speaker 1: That is a definitive A bullshit homer pick from I

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Speaker 1: Love You little, your little cubby Bears. They're so cute, terrible, terrible?

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Speaker 1: Why are you off this? I know I'm pretty, but

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Speaker 1: you gotta talk. You can't just stare into my eyes.

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Speaker 1: The Bears defense is much better with a guy who

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Speaker 1: got there five days ago. I think that they can

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Speaker 1: run the ball, and I think they're going to control

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Speaker 1: the clock. And I think if you want to have

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Speaker 1: a seven and a half point spread, you're gonna need

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Speaker 1: more changes of possessions. Too many points for me? What

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Speaker 1: number would you be comfortable at here? Maybe it doesn't

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Speaker 1: matter what number you'd be comfortable at, Chad, I'd be

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Speaker 1: comfortable at ten and a half year. Okay, you're going

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Speaker 1: into lambeau Field. The Green Bay Packers are coming off

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Speaker 1: of a season where they didn't make the playoffs. Aaron

360
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Speaker 1: Rodgers shattered his collar bone. Okay, and this guy is

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Speaker 1: coming back. He's the best quarterback in the NFL. Chad,

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Speaker 1: you realize that he's the best quarterback in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: Lambeau Field is a house of horrors for the Chicago Bears.

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers is coming out, he's looking for blood, and

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Speaker 1: he's got Jimmy Graham Now in the red zone, to

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Speaker 1: throw touchdowns too. And that's what he's gonna do, Baby,

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Speaker 1: He's gonna throw to touchdown after touchdown after touchdown. The

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Speaker 1: Packers win this game. Huge, Aaron Rodgers a man on

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Speaker 1: a mission. He is a locomotive rolling down the tracks

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Speaker 1: at a thousand miles an hour, and your little bears

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Speaker 1: are standard right in the middle. I completely agree, like Jack,

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Georgina, Georgina, can you give us the next game? Place?

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Speaker 1: Washington and Arizona Cardinals by one? I don't like it.

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Speaker 1: I don't like it either. You might as well flip

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Speaker 1: a coin on this. Seriously, Bradford and Alex Smith, can

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Speaker 1: we just watch paint ry instead? Why are you still talking?

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Speaker 1: Someone has to fill the air, Georgina, New York Jets

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00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 1: at Detroit Lions by six and a half. I liked

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Speaker 1: it better at seven. Loved it seven, loved it it seven.

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Speaker 1: Here's the problem. I I love the Jets in this game,

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Speaker 1: um when it was seven. I don't feel good about

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Speaker 1: Sam Donald like I'm just not a believer yet. Frightens

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Speaker 1: me how much we agree on this. Jeff Schwartz. The

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Speaker 1: other day we were we were taping. I'll take that

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Speaker 1: bed for ESPN Plus, and he pointed out that he

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Speaker 1: still loves the Jets in this game because Sam Donald

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Speaker 1: what he showed, his ability to be calm in the pocket,

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Speaker 1: to be comfortable with the play calling, the way he

389
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:31,520
Speaker 1: had some checkdowns, it kind of didn't make sense to me.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to believe him because he played in the

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Speaker 1: NFL and he studied is more than I do. But

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Speaker 1: it still feels like he played his college ball at Oregon.

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Speaker 1: That's not big boy football. I'm not I'm not going

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Speaker 1: with this one. So and neither are you. So we're

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Speaker 1: a no. Yeah, I'm reluctantly. I'm with you. I still

396
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Speaker 1: kind of like the Jets, but I don't love him.

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Speaker 1: Here's the problem, black Jack. We've got one more game

398
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Speaker 1: on the board. Let's hear it. Los Angeles Rams at

399
00:22:56,359 --> 00:23:06,920
Speaker 1: Oakland Rams by four Rams Rams. This is easy. Don't

400
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 1: overthink this. The Raiders are a mess chat their team disarray.

401
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:14,200
Speaker 1: They have no idea what they're doing. Man. They trade

402
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 1: for a J mccaren. What what was that about? You

403
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 1: give her a fifth round pick up for a guy

404
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:20,159
Speaker 1: you could have had in the off season. Doesn't make

405
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 1: any sense. They trade Khalil mac clearly their best defender.

406
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 1: He's gone. They trade a third round pick from Martavis

407
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:28,479
Speaker 1: Bryant and he doesn't play a game for him. They

408
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 1: release him too. I don't know what the Raiders are doing.

409
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 1: I don't think the Raiders know what they're doing. The

410
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 1: rams high powered offense defense is still very good. I

411
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:39,159
Speaker 1: think the Rams go in there and roll them. I

412
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 1: think it's ugly. I gotta tell you, I had no

413
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:44,919
Speaker 1: opinion in this game. I hadn't thought about it. I

414
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 1: never liked it because of the number. It used to

415
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:48,560
Speaker 1: be four and a half. I thought that was too

416
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Speaker 1: many points. I think it's more interesting and for um,

417
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 1: looking at it only from sort of a market perspective,

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00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 1: the Rams are getting significant about more action. Hold On,

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00:23:58,080 --> 00:23:59,679
Speaker 1: let me look at my Action Network gap here and

420
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:03,960
Speaker 1: make sure that I'm accurate with that. Um. But yeah,

421
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 1: here's the problem. Oh boy, this is what I don't like.

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00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 1: Hold On, don't start signing. The Rams right now are

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00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:16,439
Speaker 1: getting seventy six percent of the tickets. I'm looking at

424
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 1: the Action Network app and generally historically road teams getting

425
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 1: close to the money don't cover John. Are you telling

426
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:35,880
Speaker 1: me you like the Raiders here? I don't really like either.

427
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,160
Speaker 1: Of them. How do you what part of this game

428
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 1: on the football field. I'm gonna remove you from your

429
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:45,680
Speaker 1: little world of spreadsheets. Now on the football field, how

430
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 1: do the Oakland Raiders compete with the l A Rams

431
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:51,640
Speaker 1: in this game? Tell me how black Jack? You could

432
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:56,919
Speaker 1: use that logic every single week on the football field. Basically,

433
00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 1: you're saying on paper, You're I'm talking about paper. I'm saying,

434
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 1: tell me a spot where the Raiders can compete with

435
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 1: the ram Right now, you're saying, on paper, look at

436
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 1: these rosters, tell me how they can compete. And then

437
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 1: what happens. You get out on the field and things change.

438
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:16,160
Speaker 1: It's a different environment at home. Something happens to a quarterback.

439
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 1: They don't even want the Raiders in Oakland. They're suing

440
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,399
Speaker 1: them to get out. Here's my point. Here's my point.

441
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:26,920
Speaker 1: Over the years, you want to play a road favorite,

442
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 1: getting close to the tickets, you will lose. Okay, So

443
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 1: make a definitive statement. Are you saying you like the Raiders?

444
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 1: I think I am Jesus Christ's I think he likes

445
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 1: the Bears because they trade for Khalil Mack. He likes

446
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 1: the Raiders because they trade away Khalil Mack, I don't

447
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 1: know what to do with you. Well, what you're gonna

448
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 1: have to do with me is find two games that

449
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 1: we still agree on. Steelers and Rams. Done. Show over

450
00:25:56,880 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 1: right now, let's review. We have the Giants is three

451
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 1: point underdogs against the jack Dogs. We have the Titans

452
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,440
Speaker 1: as one or a half point favorites against the Dolphins.

453
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 1: And we have Seattle and Denver as a three point

454
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:18,920
Speaker 1: favorite against the Sea Harks. We have Maybes and Since

455
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 1: as a three point dog against anywas. We have a

456
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 1: maybe on Tampa Bay as a as in New Orleans

457
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:27,679
Speaker 1: as a nine and a half point favorite. We have

458
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 1: a maybe on the Steelers is three and a half

459
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:35,360
Speaker 1: point favorites over the Browns. I could buy into the Steelers.

460
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 1: Thank god, thank god, it's taken me three weeks to

461
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,880
Speaker 1: get him here. Let's add the Steelers. I would say,

462
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:47,120
Speaker 1: let's add the Steelers, and then you're gonna say, as

463
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:50,719
Speaker 1: we negotiate, we're gonna add the Bengals. No, we're not.

464
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 1: This isn't a negotiation. Don't believe me. I'm about to

465
00:26:57,600 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 1: stuff you in a goddamn locker if I can find

466
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:04,679
Speaker 1: one double down on the Cardinals. Black Jack Fletcher this

467
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 1: is getting sexy in here. I like it. Georgina brings

468
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 1: up the Cardinals. No, no, do we really not like

469
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 1: the Jets? Do we really not like the Jets? Don't

470
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 1: like the Jets? Panthers? God, no, what is the matter

471
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 1: with you? Baltimore? We went Baltimore. No, we went through

472
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:30,639
Speaker 1: these things. Buffalo really stinks. It's the Bengals. Oh no,

473
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 1: I am not going to give our fantastic proxy at

474
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,239
Speaker 1: Football contest dot Com the Bengals as one of these

475
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:40,159
Speaker 1: five picks. I can't give away a plug. Do you

476
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,119
Speaker 1: know how much those things are worth? You know what?

477
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:44,359
Speaker 1: He's a lovely man. I met him and his wife, Tony.

478
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,359
Speaker 1: They're spectacular people. Friends of yours actually, so you should

479
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:50,919
Speaker 1: be thankful, grateful for this instead of just trying to

480
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 1: get every penny you can. I can't find my notes anymore. Patriots, Patriots, No, Patriots,

481
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 1: the tech since they're's so the right sis, I'm going

482
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 1: to make an executive decisions. You can make decision you want.

483
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 1: I got the password to the proxy account. Oh that's

484
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 1: an interesting power play, Blackjack the Mi monster. Tell me,

485
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 1: tell me why why are you so high on the Bengals?

486
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 1: Andy Dalton Marvin Lewis, Why look, I think you're they're

487
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 1: a better team. They're just a better team. And because

488
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 1: of public perception, because everyone thinks Andrew Luck is back

489
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 1: the Colts, who have no offensive line, they have no

490
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 1: running backs, they have no defense. They're getting three points

491
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 1: at home because they're playing at home. That's it. The

492
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 1: Bengals are just a better team. This is a team

493
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 1: that had a crappy year last year because for a

494
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 1: variety of reasons. But it's also a team that two

495
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 1: years ago, with pretty much the same personnel, went to

496
00:28:56,320 --> 00:29:02,479
Speaker 1: the playoffs. They're just a better team. Look at the roster.

497
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 1: But chick toeo. They beat this team on the field.

498
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 1: That's how you that's how you you analyze a football game,

499
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 1: not with a pack in numbers. Well, I'm bringing your

500
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 1: logic to this game. You really want that, and I'm

501
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 1: gonna tell you brother, the Bagels. Come on, let's tell

502
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:25,280
Speaker 1: a better team. They have the better running back, he

503
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 1: better defensive line. They are gonna crush now Colts offensive

504
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 1: line that has so many holes you could run water

505
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 1: through it. Andrew Luck, We'll be lucky to get out

506
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 1: of this game alive. You need a lot of holes

507
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 1: to run water through something that doesn't even make sense.

508
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 1: The point is. The point is, can you name one

509
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 1: of those players at the positions you just talked about?

510
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 1: Geno Atkins nailed it all right, you want it, you

511
00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 1: got it. But if you screw this up, God help you. Boom.

512
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 1: We have come to I gotta say that was hard.

513
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 1: We have come to a consensus. Here are our games.

514
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 1: We are going for one million dollars on these games.

515
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 1: New York Giants plus three against the Jackson phil Jaguars,

516
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals plus. I can't believe we're putting a million

517
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 1: dollars on the Cincinnati Bengals. You can't believe plus you

518
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:30,320
Speaker 1: just sold me on it plus three. I guess they

519
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 1: did that. What's going We are betting a million dollars

520
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 1: on the Tennessee Titans minus one and a half over

521
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:39,440
Speaker 1: the Miami Dolphins. We are betting a million dollars on

522
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 1: the Denver Broncoes minus three over the Seattle Seahawks. Who

523
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 1: do I miss? We are betting a million dollars on

524
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Steelers minus three and a half against the

525
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns. Do you have those to send to Maddie?

526
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 1: I sure do, sure do, be ashamed if that Bengals

527
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:03,200
Speaker 1: one didn't make it. Wow, this is gonna be a

528
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 1: long year, ladies and gentlemen. I don't know what to

529
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:10,480
Speaker 1: say about that. I'm glad you listened. Um, I hope

530
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 1: you followed along. Obviously you'll know what happens because we

531
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 1: will recap next Friday. On Monday, you can listen to me,

532
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 1: Jeff Schwartz, Paula Duca, all from the Action Network. We're

533
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 1: gonna recap what happened over the weekend, and we are

534
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 1: going to get nine picks together looking to the week

535
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 1: ahead for a nine team parlay. Download the Action Network app,

536
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:40,560
Speaker 1: Listen to the favorites, subscribe, rate, review, unsubscribe, resubscribe, all

537
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 1: that good stuff. Thanks for listening. You know, I didn't

538
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 1: know what any of this means.