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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris,

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Speaker 1: joined by Bau mcbraer. We are down to the final

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Speaker 1: event of the PGA Tour season. The Tour Championship not

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Speaker 1: a big deal, just a forty million dollar perse to

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Speaker 1: be divided among thirty players, with the winner getting ten million.

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Speaker 1: We'll get to the Tour cham Championship lickety split, but

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Speaker 1: first a brief recap of last week's BMW Championship. Scotty

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Speaker 1: Scheffler wins the BMW. Scotty trailed Robert McIntyre by four

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Speaker 1: shots going into the final round, but Scheffler closed the

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Speaker 1: gap quickly. In fact, he was in the lead by

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Speaker 1: the time he made the turn. Scheffler was two under

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Speaker 1: for his first nine holes. McIntyre was three over on

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Speaker 1: the front nine, but Scheffler's win was still in doubt

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Speaker 1: until he reached the par three seventeenth hole on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: Scotty's normally superb ball striking was a little off at

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Speaker 1: times on the back nine, and his t shot on

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Speaker 1: the seventeenth missed the green long and left. But then

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Speaker 1: Scheffler chipped in from about eighty two feet clutch from

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Speaker 1: a clutch player. Scotty then made a routine par in

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Speaker 1: the eighteenth for a two shot win over McIntyre. Maverick

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Speaker 1: McNeely shot a bogie free sixty six on Sunday to

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Speaker 1: finish solo third. Sam Burns and Tommy Fleetwood tied for fourth.

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Speaker 1: Bo Any takeaways from the BMW Championship.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was just waiting for that other shoe to drop.

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Speaker 2: With the opening couple rounds that Robert McIntyre had, we

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Speaker 2: were thinking, Okay, Scotty's there, but if Bobby mack keeps

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Speaker 2: playing like this, then he's obviously gonna win. He played

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Speaker 2: that well for three rounds and then got off to

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Speaker 2: a disastrous start on Sunday and that four shot lead

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Speaker 2: was gone by the fifth hole. That's golf for you.

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Speaker 2: And you have the best player in the world paired

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Speaker 2: up with you on Sunday, the pressure is sweltering. I

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Speaker 2: can't even imagine. And then, of course you mentioned the

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Speaker 2: chip in on seventeen, which was one of the best

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Speaker 2: holdouts of Scotty's career, which is remarkable in itself. This

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Speaker 2: guy holds out from all over the place, from the fairway,

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Speaker 2: from the rough. This was a very tricky, straight down

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Speaker 2: hill chip from the primary rough. He had to land

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Speaker 2: it in a certain spot and let it roll all

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Speaker 2: the way down that hill, And much like Tiger Woods

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Speaker 2: at sixteen at Augusta, back in was at nine just

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Speaker 2: trickled right over the edge dead center like he like

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Speaker 2: he walked up there and dropped it in like he

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Speaker 2: q sticked it from from a foot away. That that's

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Speaker 2: just it's amazing. This guy's this guy's amazing. He's just

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Speaker 2: one of the best ever. It's fun to watch. It's

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Speaker 2: it's fun to watch golf look that easy on it

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Speaker 2: in a place that ironically was not nearly as as

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Speaker 2: easy as we thought it would be because they completely

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Speaker 2: redid that golf course, apparently lengthening it and taking away

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Speaker 2: two of the par shots made it extremely difficult, especially

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Speaker 2: since they remodeled all the greens. I didn't know that.

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Speaker 2: I thought they were going same old, same old, just

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Speaker 2: a par seventy and that place had some teeth. The

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Speaker 2: greens had a lot more slope to them, and as

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Speaker 2: we did say last week, the harder if it ends

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Speaker 2: up being tougher with the with the new parameters of

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Speaker 2: that golf course. At the BMW at CAD's Valley. If

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Speaker 2: it gets tougher, Scotty's gonna be really hard to beat

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Speaker 2: because his advantage comes when the courses get tougher. It's

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Speaker 2: like you want a tigerproof for Scotti proof. These courses

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Speaker 2: just make them easier. So everybody's putting up verdies. And

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Speaker 2: that's we got a tougher golf course challenge, and we

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Speaker 2: got another tough one coming up this week for the

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Speaker 2: Tour Championship. East Lake is no joke.

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Speaker 1: It is not bo Did you adhere to your strategy

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Speaker 1: of live betting, Scottie? Did you plunk about that on

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Speaker 1: Scotty at any point?

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Speaker 2: I didn't get a chance. Even when he was I

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Speaker 2: think he was seven shots back, he was still at

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Speaker 2: plus four point fifty, which wasn't good enough. And that

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Speaker 2: was the longest I saw him all week, even when

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Speaker 2: he was he was four shots back entering Sunday and

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Speaker 2: he was plus one eighty.

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Speaker 1: Oh man. The books know better than to get a

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Speaker 1: nice price.

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Speaker 2: If he's within screaming distance. They're not going to give

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Speaker 2: you any juice there. There's no value.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I know. We'll get to the betting preview for

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Speaker 1: the Tour Championship in just a moment, but first.

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Speaker 1: So the FedEx Cleanup Playoffs began with seventy players. The

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Speaker 1: field was trimmed to fifty for the BMW and now

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Speaker 1: it's down to thirty for the Tour Championship. With such

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Speaker 1: a small field, this will be a no cut event.

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Speaker 1: Everyone plays four rounds. The big change at the Tour

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Speaker 1: Championship is the elimination of the starting strokes system. The

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Speaker 1: Tour used to slot the players based on how many

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Speaker 1: FedEx Cup points they had accumulated. The leading points earners

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Speaker 1: started at ten under par, the number two points earner

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Speaker 1: started eight under par. So on all the way down

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Speaker 1: to even par for the last of the qualifying players

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Speaker 1: with the fewest points. The format was meant to reward

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Speaker 1: players for strong season long performances, but it often made

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Speaker 1: for in anti climactic Tour Championship. Now all thirty players

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Speaker 1: are starting at level par, which means betting the Tour

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Speaker 1: Championship is going to be more straightforward. The Tour Championship

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Speaker 1: will once again be played at east Lake Golf Club

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Speaker 1: in Atlanta. It's a Donald Ross design. After playing as

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Speaker 1: a par seventy one last year, east Lake will play

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Speaker 1: as a par seventy measuring seven four hundred and forty yards.

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Speaker 1: The fairways at east Lake are narrow, The rough at

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Speaker 1: east Lake can be rather penal the Bermuda greens that

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Speaker 1: are small. This is a tough test. As you alluded

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Speaker 1: to Bo, the Tour Championship probably is not going to

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Speaker 1: be a birdie fest, even if we get benign conditions.

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Speaker 1: Scotti Scheffler won last year's two Tour Championship. He was

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Speaker 1: twenty under par, not counting his ten strokes starting advantage.

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Speaker 1: Victor Hoblind won here in twenty twenty three. He was

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Speaker 1: nineteen under minus the starting strokes. Rory McElroy won the

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Speaker 1: Tour Championship in twenty twenty two. He was seventeen under

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Speaker 1: for his four rounds and Patrick can't Lay won this

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Speaker 1: event in twenty twenty one. He was eleven under par

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Speaker 1: and needed his ten shot head start that year. But

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Speaker 1: again there will be no starting strokes this year. Everyone

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Speaker 1: is even par to begin the tournament. Bo give me

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Speaker 1: your take on East Lake Golf Club and what it's

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Speaker 1: going to take to win the Tour Championship.

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Speaker 2: It's one of the best golf courses on Tour for

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Speaker 2: a fair test of ball striking, especially. I do see

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Speaker 2: rain in the forecast all four days so far for Atlanta,

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Speaker 2: which is probably just passing thunderstorms. But if this place

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Speaker 2: softens up, it's going to be tougher on if you

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Speaker 2: miss the fairway because Bermuda Rough gets really nasty when

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Speaker 2: it's wet, because the ball just sits down at the

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Speaker 2: ground level and you're dealing with a bunch of grass

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Speaker 2: in between your club face and the ball. And if

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Speaker 2: the ball's wet, it's even crazier. You don't know where

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Speaker 2: the ball is going to go. At the same time,

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Speaker 2: the greens get more receptive. They are very small Bermuda

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Speaker 2: greens that tend to run really fast, but if they're

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Speaker 2: grabbing golf balls on approach, then it gets exponentially easier

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Speaker 2: to score. So I think either way, you're going to

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Speaker 2: get a score around twelve to seventeen under par. For

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Speaker 2: the winner. It's going to come down to who's the

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Speaker 2: most accurate off the tee and who sticks it close

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Speaker 2: on these tiny greens. There's only one guy I can

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Speaker 2: really think of that I would have a lot of

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Speaker 2: confidence and doing that regardless of conditions. And he's right

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Speaker 2: at the top of the board.

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Speaker 1: Yes he is. And glad you mentioned the weather. Yes,

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Speaker 1: scattered thunderstorms Friday and Saturday PM, thunderstorms on Thursday, dry

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Speaker 1: forecast on Sunday, but who knows, light winds throughout the tournament.

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Speaker 1: We will get to the odds in just a moment,

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Speaker 1: Now for the Tour Championship odds. All odds are courtesy

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Speaker 1: of DraftKings. As of Monday afternoon, Scotti Scheffler installed is

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Speaker 1: the overwhelming favorite at plus one fifty with a thirty

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Speaker 1: man field. These are the shortest odds we've seen in

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Speaker 1: a season full of short odds for Scotti. Rory McElroy

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Speaker 1: is plus eight hundred, Tommy Fleetwood is plus fourteen hundred,

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Speaker 1: Ludwig Oberg is plus sixteen hundred, Russell Henley is plus

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Speaker 1: two thousand, Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantler plus twenty two hundred.

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Speaker 1: JJ Spatt is plus twenty five hundred, and at plus

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Speaker 1: twenty eight hundred are Colin Morricawa Cameron Young, Victor Hoblind

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Speaker 1: and Sam Burns. Dare we bet Scottie at plus one

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Speaker 1: fifty vo and if not, where does your betting card begin?

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Speaker 2: You're gonna hear a lot of things that very seldom

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Speaker 2: come out of my mouth this week. Yes, I'm betting

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Speaker 2: sc Scheffler thirty man Field. He's on a dominant run.

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Speaker 2: This golf course is as gettable for him as anybody else.

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Speaker 2: This is a picture perfect golf course for Scotty Scheffler's game,

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Speaker 2: with his accuracy off to tee, his ball striking in general,

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Speaker 2: and with a newfound putting stroke that's been lights out

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Speaker 2: this year. Getting plus money on Scotti Scheffler and this

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Speaker 2: exact case is good enough for me. I was able

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Speaker 2: to snatch him at plus one eighty plus one fifty

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Speaker 2: still fine. Positive odds for Scotty Scheffler in a thirty

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Speaker 2: man event on a golf course that was made for

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Speaker 2: him to win. I gotta do it. It's not much,

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Speaker 2: there's not much juice in the squeeze, but it is

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Speaker 2: gonna be probably a pretty good squeeze.

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Speaker 1: Wow. Yeah, I mean, he's been in fine late season.

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Speaker 1: Fom obviously won the Open Championship, won the BMW Championship

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Speaker 1: in between those two events finished. He's just making it

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Speaker 1: looks so easy. He really is, He really is. He

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Speaker 1: has never been the low man at the Tour Championship

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Speaker 1: if he set aside starting strokes. But he was second

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, third last year.

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Speaker 2: He didn't have to be. That was the thing is

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Speaker 2: the strategy changes with iron buffer. He probably played a

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Speaker 2: little bit more conservatively to gauge where the field was

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Speaker 2: going to come back to him.

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Speaker 1: Very true, good points. So Rory McElroy won here in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty two and he's been top fourteen in each

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Speaker 1: of the last four years. Rory has finished twelfth or

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Speaker 1: better in each of his last four events. But I

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Speaker 1: don't know bo great season for Rory, but it seems

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Speaker 1: like maybe the tank is a little low at this

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Speaker 1: point in the season.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, what he showed last week was very concerning, not

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Speaker 2: for Ryder Cup or anything. I still think Europe completely

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Speaker 2: smashes the US in the Ryder Cup next month, But

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Speaker 2: as far as the rest of these singles golf tournaments,

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Speaker 2: I think Rory's pretty much checked out. I think once

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Speaker 2: he got his green jacket he was mostly checked out

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Speaker 2: and now watching what he did at the BMW last week.

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Speaker 2: Rory is already on vacation time, and honestly, I don't

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Speaker 2: think he beats Scotty at this golf course. I thought

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Speaker 2: he might beat him last week. He wasn't even close.

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Speaker 2: It was just the mental game has already checked out.

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Speaker 2: The physical game not far behind. I cannot endorse, say

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Speaker 2: Rory bet this week, even though I really love watching

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Speaker 2: him play. Honestly, this is the first time in two

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Speaker 2: or three years I'm going to tell you to bet

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Speaker 2: on Tommy Fleetwood to win. Really, it's gonna take. It's

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Speaker 2: gonna take a thirty man field on a perfect again,

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Speaker 2: a golf course that rewards accuracy out the tea check

230
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Speaker 2: and a really strong approach game. And with the way

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Speaker 2: he's been rolling the ball, his putting on Bermuda sixth

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Speaker 2: in this field, which is a lot stronger than I expected,

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Speaker 2: and it seems like he scrambles well. Obviously, he avoids

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Speaker 2: bogies very well. He's number one in this field and

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Speaker 2: strokes gained part four and that's the number one metric

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Speaker 2: I measured for in this par seventy. The par four

237
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Speaker 2: is a tour at eats like are pretty much brutal.

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Speaker 2: The par fours at this golf course are nasty, and

239
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Speaker 2: so I'm looking for guys who can ride that wave

240
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Speaker 2: make the birdies where they're presented. And he's not exactly

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Speaker 2: a birdie maker, but he's in a quintessential grinder and

242
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Speaker 2: the approach game is eleventh in this field putting on

243
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Speaker 2: Bermuda six. That's more than I needed to see for

244
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Speaker 2: Tommy Fleetwood to get my bet at plus fourteen hundred.

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Speaker 2: Right now, that's as good as I want to pay

246
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Speaker 2: up for him. But this is the one time where

247
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Speaker 2: I can actually see him winning because there's only so

248
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Speaker 2: many guys that have the game to match up. And

249
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Speaker 2: he's been top five just about every week.

250
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Speaker 3: Yeah.

251
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Speaker 1: Fleetwood has finished top five in three of his last

252
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Speaker 1: five events, including each of the last two, and he's

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Speaker 1: played pretty well at east Lake the last two years. Yeah, BAA,

254
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Speaker 1: I figured you wouldn't be betting him to win, but

255
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Speaker 1: I was curious if you might have had any interest

256
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Speaker 1: in betting him for a top five at plus one ninety.

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Speaker 2: But hey, tom win, Yes, yes, and yes, and dare

258
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Speaker 2: I say go the ladder if you feel feel little

259
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Speaker 2: frisky for Tommy Ladd wouldn't it be great for his

260
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Speaker 2: first ever PGA Tour win to be the big one.

261
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Speaker 1: That would be triumphant for Tommy and that would be

262
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Speaker 1: a feel good win.

263
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Speaker 2: For I don't think he's hurting for money though.

264
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Speaker 1: Probably not, probably not. Still making some nice checks even

265
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Speaker 1: if he's not catching the big winners. Check. What about

266
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Speaker 1: Ludwig Oberg. He's finished top ten and three of his

267
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Speaker 1: last four events and actually had a chance to finish

268
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Speaker 1: top five at the BMW last week, but closed with

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Speaker 1: a bogie and double bogie on Sunday wound up in

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Speaker 1: a three way tie for seventh. He was nineteen out

271
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Speaker 1: of thirty in the Tour Championship last year, not counting

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Speaker 1: starting strokes. Do we think he could break through?

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Speaker 2: He could, I just don't think it's likely. His once

274
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Speaker 2: illustrious approach game has kind of fallen by the wayside,

275
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Speaker 2: and he's never been a good scrambler, which will be

276
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Speaker 2: required on this golf course with the especially if you

277
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Speaker 2: miss fairways here. Oberg's really good off the teed in general.

278
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Speaker 2: He's just been off this year since the start of

279
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Speaker 2: the year. That we've we've seen we've heard of swing

280
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Speaker 2: changes or a short game approach that he tried to

281
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Speaker 2: change and made it even worse. He's finally starting to

282
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Speaker 2: kind of break out of a funk. But this is

283
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Speaker 2: just isn't his kind of course. This is a This

284
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Speaker 2: is a course that's going to require precision that he

285
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Speaker 2: hasn't had in months, and a scrambling game that he

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Speaker 2: hasn't showed in his entire career. So I can't. I

287
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Speaker 2: can't do Ludwig this week, as much as I like him.

288
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Speaker 1: Oh, you used the s word bow of scrambling, and

289
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Speaker 1: just as I was about to bring up our friend

290
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Speaker 1: Victor Hoblins, so not exactly the most proficient scrambler on

291
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Speaker 1: tour bought. Hoblin was low man here at East Like

292
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Speaker 1: two years ago, heavy, eighth best scorer at the Tour

293
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Speaker 1: Championship last year, fourth best back in twenty twenty one.

294
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Speaker 1: We know he has the ball striking. No interest in

295
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Speaker 1: betting him to win this year.

296
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Speaker 2: I'm more likely to bet on Victor than than Ludwig.

297
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Speaker 2: They are number twenty nine and thirty out of thirty

298
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Speaker 2: in scrambling, but Victor Hovelin's good drives gain tenth birdies

299
00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:13,080
Speaker 2: are better, third approach, tenth proximity on approach third. He's

300
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Speaker 2: got the ball striking and Ludwig traditionally has the ball striking,

301
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Speaker 2: but this year it hasn't been there. So I'm much

302
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Speaker 2: more into Victor Hovlin this week because of course history. Honestly,

303
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Speaker 2: it's gonna be a little bit farther down where I

304
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Speaker 2: go for my next two guys.

305
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Speaker 1: Now, bo, you know I'm betting Russell Henley on a

306
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Speaker 1: venue that has Bermuda greens. It's just course automatic. Henley's

307
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Speaker 1: a Bermuda specialist. He's log six straight top twenties dating

308
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Speaker 1: back to the Memorial in early June, and he has

309
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Speaker 1: fared well at this course. He had the fourth best

310
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Speaker 1: scorities like last year. What about let me ask you

311
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Speaker 1: about two guys sort of horses for courses for this

312
00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:58,440
Speaker 1: course anyway, not counting starting strokes. Justin Thomas has been fourth, fifth,

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Speaker 1: and seventh in his last three trips to Eastlake. The

314
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Speaker 1: thing is he hasn't recorded a top twenty since June,

315
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Speaker 1: and he's obviously struggled with his accuracy off the tea

316
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Speaker 1: this year.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it's a little scary, but again, this is another

318
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Speaker 2: great Bermuda player, like everybody thinks of Brussel Henley, but

319
00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:22,399
Speaker 2: justin Thomas number one, and Birdie's on Bermuda three third

320
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Speaker 2: and strokes gain part four top ten and all the

321
00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:28,840
Speaker 2: approach and putting metrics. Again, the only thing that kind

322
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Speaker 2: of just takes you off of him is the off

323
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Speaker 2: the tea game. Good drives gandes twenty six out of

324
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Speaker 2: thirty in this field, So if he can somehow find

325
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Speaker 2: these fairways, he's a green light. He's eighth in my model,

326
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Speaker 2: really solid. And another guy who's even higher in my

327
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Speaker 2: model that I think you're about to tell me about

328
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Speaker 2: is can Colin Morikawa make enough putts at Eastlake? Because

329
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Speaker 2: other than putting, this guy is lights out at Eastlake.

330
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Speaker 2: He's twenty ninth and putting on Bermuda, he's top ten

331
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Speaker 2: in every single other stat.

332
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Speaker 1: YEP best score in the field last year if you

333
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Speaker 1: exclude the starting strokes, and he was fourth best in

334
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Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. He definitely loves this place. Bo. It's

335
00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:11,480
Speaker 1: just whether he can roll in enough potts, that's it.

336
00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:13,040
Speaker 1: And he has a he's.

337
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Speaker 2: The accurate player that we're looking for.

338
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Speaker 1: Has not been in great form lately, but this this

339
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:20,919
Speaker 1: seems like the kind of track that could get him back.

340
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Speaker 1: On the right track, all right, So let's just run

341
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Speaker 1: through the odds for the rest of the field, since

342
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Speaker 1: they're only thirty players. Stepstraca and Robert McIntyre plus three thousand.

343
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Speaker 1: Ben Griffin is plus thirty five hundred and plus four

344
00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:37,720
Speaker 1: thousand are Keegan Bradley, Hideki Matsuyama, Harris English, Corey Connors

345
00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:41,200
Speaker 1: and Maverick McNeely. Harry Hall and Chris Godderup are plus

346
00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:45,200
Speaker 1: forty five hundred, Justin Roses plus five thousand, Aksha Battias

347
00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,359
Speaker 1: plus fifty five hundred, Brian Harmon and Shane Lowry are

348
00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:51,960
Speaker 1: plus sixty five hundred. Sung jm is plus seventy five hundred.

349
00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:55,760
Speaker 1: Nick Taylor is eighty to one, Jacobridgeman one hundred to one,

350
00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:59,600
Speaker 1: and Andrew Novak one hundred and ten to one. Who,

351
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Speaker 1: if any one do you like from this group.

352
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Speaker 2: Well, it's quite a big group you just mentioned. They're

353
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Speaker 2: the whole rest of the field in the mid range there.

354
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Speaker 2: I do like Sepstraca. I don't think I've ever gotten

355
00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:13,880
Speaker 2: Sepstraca correct. Every time I towed him he misses the cut.

356
00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,320
Speaker 2: There's no cut this week. Every time I think he's

357
00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:18,800
Speaker 2: gonna win he does terrible and every time I think

358
00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:21,440
Speaker 2: he's not a good fit for the course, he lights

359
00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:25,040
Speaker 2: it up. Well. He's number three in my model. He's

360
00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:28,440
Speaker 2: playing great this year. He's in the top fifteen and

361
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:32,600
Speaker 2: every single category that I did, especially number one in

362
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,200
Speaker 2: greens and regulation game. So his approach game is locked

363
00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:38,080
Speaker 2: in number two, and birdies are better number five, and

364
00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:42,880
Speaker 2: bogie avoidance fourth and accuracy off the tee Sepstraca at

365
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:47,120
Speaker 2: those odds thirty to one, fantastic. That's a really nice

366
00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:50,040
Speaker 2: number for me. And then I also like Ben Griffin

367
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:54,000
Speaker 2: at thirty five to one. Ben Griffin coming in another

368
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:57,600
Speaker 2: guy who is as solid as it gets across the

369
00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:00,600
Speaker 2: board fourth and scrambling fourth and strokes game par four

370
00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,520
Speaker 2: fifth and putting or in Bermuda. That surprised me. I

371
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:06,119
Speaker 2: know he's got a great short game, but the putting

372
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:09,879
Speaker 2: on Bermuda really surprised me. With Ben Griffin, And for

373
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Speaker 2: a guy who started his Sunday round at the BMW

374
00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:16,600
Speaker 2: with a triple, a double and then a bogie, he

375
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:20,320
Speaker 2: was seven six over through three holes on his round,

376
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 2: still pulled that round together. It finished under par on Sunday.

377
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:27,960
Speaker 2: After that start, that means this guy is absolutely dialed.

378
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:31,119
Speaker 2: Apparently he overdoes on creatine somehow, and it was all

379
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:35,160
Speaker 2: jittery and flustered and flush. I mean, you fill your

380
00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:38,280
Speaker 2: body with fluid. Had probably not easy to putt like that.

381
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:43,840
Speaker 2: But Ben Griffin has the game. He has the accuracy

382
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:46,560
Speaker 2: in the short game to make it happen here. That's

383
00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:48,480
Speaker 2: a really nice number thirty five to one for a

384
00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 2: guy with that quality of game this season. I really

385
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:54,720
Speaker 2: like that. And my last long shot not that long,

386
00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:57,520
Speaker 2: sixty to one. I couldn't believe it. Shane Lowry is

387
00:20:57,560 --> 00:20:58,200
Speaker 2: sixty to one.

388
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:03,359
Speaker 1: Sign me up? Wow, you think he can? I guess,

389
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:05,480
Speaker 1: like Mari Kama the same question, do enough with the

390
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:07,200
Speaker 1: flatstick to make it happen?

391
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:10,480
Speaker 2: These are guys that are in the same kind of

392
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 2: I think they're in the same tier of golfer at

393
00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:15,800
Speaker 2: this point, and it just for me, it's the value

394
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:19,320
Speaker 2: I could pay up for Morikawa, who's at much shorter odds,

395
00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:22,639
Speaker 2: but I get the same golfer in Shane Lowry at

396
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,159
Speaker 2: sixty to one. That for me, that's a no brainer.

397
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:27,400
Speaker 2: It's a guy who's straight off the tee, really good

398
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,640
Speaker 2: on approaches in the especially in these in distance buckets.

399
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:35,360
Speaker 2: And he catches a hot putter more often than Morikawa does,

400
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:39,840
Speaker 2: and of course a great short game that absolutely beats

401
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:44,040
Speaker 2: Marikawa around the greens. So Shane Lowry for me at

402
00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 2: sixty to one is the craziest number I've seen.

403
00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, Ben Griffin, I was just looking at his numbers

404
00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 1: from this season, marveling at the year. He's had two wins, rates,

405
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 1: one second, nine top tens, fourteen top twenty fives, and

406
00:21:58,160 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 1: twenty seven.

407
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:03,399
Speaker 2: Events under a preciated guy who plays Maris fly golf balls.

408
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 1: Oh Max flying. Yeah, he absolutely needs to be on

409
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:08,359
Speaker 1: the Ryder Cup team without question.

410
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:09,719
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna make it.

411
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, speaking of the Ryder Cup team, what a great

412
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 1: story it would be if Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley

413
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 1: was able to contend this week. But after a strong

414
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:23,439
Speaker 1: season though ball, Keegan has fallen off a bit lately.

415
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 1: I know there's a lot on his plate these days

416
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 1: with the Ryder Cup coming up. And you know he

417
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,479
Speaker 1: was fourth to last at east Lake last year, not

418
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,679
Speaker 1: counting the starting stroke, so probably not worth an investment.

419
00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 1: What about Robert McIntyre Obviously didn't play well Sunday at

420
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:41,000
Speaker 1: the BMW, but he's had a really nice season and

421
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:44,680
Speaker 1: he's contended in some big events, second in the US Open,

422
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 1: where jj Spawn's miracle birdie put on the final hole

423
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:52,120
Speaker 1: beat him. Second at the BMW. Like, I don't hate

424
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:54,880
Speaker 1: a thirty to one price on Bobby McIntyre.

425
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was kind of on the fence with Bobby.

426
00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 2: I kind of just kind of flipped the coin, didn't

427
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 2: really flip a coin. I liked the value on the

428
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 2: two guys. I got in that range a little bit

429
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 2: better with Sepstraca, especially with the accuracy off the tea.

430
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 2: That's the one thing I'm worried about with Bob. Bob

431
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,440
Speaker 2: McIntyre is a good drives game. He's twenty seventh out

432
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,200
Speaker 2: of thirty tea degreen, He's twenty fourth out of thirty,

433
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:22,159
Speaker 2: and that's including great approach. His approach is great, his

434
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:26,199
Speaker 2: plotting is red hot. He's a really good player. I

435
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:28,160
Speaker 2: just think that there's not going to be as much

436
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 2: forgiveness off the tee accuracy wise finding these fairways as

437
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,479
Speaker 2: there was last week. McIntyre was in a lot of

438
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 2: green light positions on approach last week, and those are

439
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 2: probably not going to be there in the same frequency

440
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:42,520
Speaker 2: At East Lake.

441
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 1: Our two more guys to ask you about before we

442
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:47,879
Speaker 1: move on to the early betting cards. Any interest in

443
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:52,680
Speaker 1: either Harris English or Justin Rose, two gamers who kind

444
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:54,840
Speaker 1: of have a knack for showing up in big events,

445
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 1: at least this year.

446
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:58,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, Roses kind of middle of the pack for me.

447
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,880
Speaker 2: He's been more consistent than English this year. English has

448
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 2: just been kind of flying under the radar with a

449
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 2: bunch of top twenties and top thirties. He's somehow an

450
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 2: automatic qualifier for the Ryder Cup for Team USA. I

451
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 2: have no idea how he just accumulated tons of points

452
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 2: by happenstance. I have no idea because he's twenty seventh

453
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 2: in my model, with the only redeeming quality being good

454
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 2: off the tee and accurate accurate off the tea. The

455
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 2: rest of his numbers are atrocious on Bermuda courses. When

456
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:32,200
Speaker 2: I filter it for courses under in that seventy four

457
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 2: hundred yard range, he's even worse. He's twenty ninth. I

458
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 2: honestly have no clue how har Harris English is an

459
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 2: automatic Ryder Cup qualifier. But I'm not going to be

460
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 2: betting on him this week. I will take a look

461
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:47,359
Speaker 2: at Justin Rose because his odds are so sweet and

462
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,680
Speaker 2: he's having a more solid season. I just worry about

463
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 2: his His scrambling's surprisingly bad Justin Rose for savvy and

464
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:58,119
Speaker 2: as wiley as he is as the veteran on tour,

465
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 2: not getting a on the greens quite well, and his

466
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:03,120
Speaker 2: putting is streaky.

467
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, fifty to one. He would have to get hot

468
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 1: with the ball striking as he were a couple of

469
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,239
Speaker 1: weeks ago at the FedEx Saint Jude. All Right, bo

470
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 1: early betting cards, who's on yours?

471
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,399
Speaker 2: Some guy named Scotty Scheffler. Plus one eighty is what

472
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 2: I got him at, even if he's a little shorter,

473
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:21,880
Speaker 2: if he had positive odds this week on Scotty, I'm

474
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:25,640
Speaker 2: endorsing it, and I go against every inclination I've ever

475
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,120
Speaker 2: had about Tommy Fleetwood, and I think he gets it done.

476
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 2: Fourteen to one in a thirty man field. That's a

477
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:33,879
Speaker 2: great value for a guy who is as good of

478
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 2: a fit for this golf course as Scotty Scheffler just

479
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,240
Speaker 2: doesn't have the talent. Really, I think he can still

480
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:41,960
Speaker 2: do it on a four day basis. I have step

481
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 2: Straka at thirty to one. Ben Griffin at thirty five

482
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 2: and Shane Lowry at sixty to one.

483
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,680
Speaker 1: I love this that you are bucking convention in our

484
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:53,560
Speaker 1: final show of the year, Bo by betting Scotty before

485
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:57,919
Speaker 1: the tournament, betting Tommy Fleetwood to win. If you were

486
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 1: betting Brian Harmon this week, we would have the trifecta completed.

487
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 2: So I did look at that. Because I did, I

488
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 2: had some self awareness there. Unfortunately, Brian Harmon is awful

489
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 2: and I will not bet him.

490
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, some things will never change.

491
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:16,359
Speaker 3: Me.

492
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 1: The betting card starts with Russell Henley at twenty one.

493
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:21,879
Speaker 1: I'm also going to throw some money on Victor Hoblind

494
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:24,120
Speaker 1: at twenty eight to one, and right now the only

495
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:27,400
Speaker 1: other bet I have is on Justin Rose at fifty

496
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 1: to one. I take that back. I am betting Tommy

497
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:34,360
Speaker 1: Fleetwood for a top five at plus one ninety, so

498
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 1: you know, take win to the bank, Take it to

499
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 1: the bank. I'm not going to feel quite as good

500
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,360
Speaker 1: as you if he wins, but you know I'll make

501
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 1: a little something off at all. Right. We wrapped up

502
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 1: our one and done competition last week. BO had Colin Morrikawa.

503
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 1: He finished thirty third, tied for thirty third, good for

504
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:55,199
Speaker 1: one hundred and nineteen thousand dollars six excuse me, one

505
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 1: hundred and nineteen one thousand, six hundred and sixty six

506
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:02,040
Speaker 1: and sixty seven cents.

507
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 2: Revolving decimal there.

508
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 1: Yes, Sir, I had lived big Oberg. He tied verse seventh,

509
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:11,199
Speaker 1: earning me six hundred and forty five thousand dollars. I

510
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 1: made up some big ground on bo Bots, it wasn't enough.

511
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,359
Speaker 1: Bo finishes the season with just over eight point nine million.

512
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:20,880
Speaker 1: I finished with just over eight point five million. Bau

513
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:24,159
Speaker 1: mcbraer avenges last season's loss when I beat him in

514
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 1: the cheesiest way pops Mickey Mouse loss, saving Scottie Scheffler

515
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 1: for the tour championship and banking ten million dollars with

516
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 1: the victory, and hence why.

517
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,199
Speaker 2: We had one assive lead last year.

518
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,440
Speaker 1: It was a massive lead. Yes, that's why we decided

519
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 1: to end the one and done with the BMW Championship.

520
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 1: And so that's all for the Betting pros PGA podcast

521
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five. We want to thank all of

522
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 1: you for spending time with us this season. Hopefully you

523
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:53,880
Speaker 1: tailed us and faded us at the right times. Bo,

524
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 1: you are leaving me. You made a bunch of a

525
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,720
Speaker 1: great calls in our two seasons doing this show together.

526
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:02,120
Speaker 1: We had a lot of fun. Thank you for being

527
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 1: such a great tag team partner, and I hope we'll

528
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 1: get together get to work together again sometime down the road.

529
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, the pleasure has been online, Pat Honestly, it's been

530
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:13,640
Speaker 2: a lot of fun.

531
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 1: And the Betting Pros PGA podcast will return in early

532
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,120
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. I will be back with a new

533
00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:23,639
Speaker 1: partner and we will be previewing the Sony Excuse Me

534
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:28,160
Speaker 1: the Century in Hawaii until then, so long everyone.

535
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

536
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 3: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

537
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,919
Speaker 3: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

538
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 3: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and

539
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 3: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

540
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 3: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.