WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: March 7, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio) 0:00:03.880 --> 0:00:07.080 Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Brooker Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:07.160 --> 0:00:10.600 day Break for Monday, March seven two. Coming up this hour, 0:00:10.880 --> 0:00:14.000 equities tumble as stock markets from Europe to Asia head 0:00:14.040 --> 0:00:16.959 for bear markets. Oil sewers on the prospect of the U. 0:00:17.079 --> 0:00:20.360 S Van on Russian supplies. Gold rallies to top two 0:00:20.400 --> 0:00:23.239 thousand dollars announce, and more companies join the effort to 0:00:23.239 --> 0:00:26.759 cut ties with Russia. Former New York Governor Cuomo is 0:00:26.840 --> 0:00:30.480 hinting at a political combat lust. Vice President Harrison marks 0:00:30.520 --> 0:00:34.159 the Bloody Sunday Anniversary in Selma. I'm Michael barn More Ahead. 0:00:34.760 --> 0:00:37.160 I'm trying stas Sharon sports rare wind for the makes. 0:00:37.200 --> 0:00:39.400 They beat the Clippers in l A, the Nets lost 0:00:39.440 --> 0:00:45.040 in Boston, the Rangers one in Winnipeg. That's all straight 0:00:45.080 --> 0:00:49.280 ahead on Bloomberg day Break on Bloomberg eleven Trio, New York, 0:00:49.400 --> 0:00:54.120 Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, 0:00:54.320 --> 0:00:58.840 Bloomberg nine sixties, San Francisco, Sirius x M one nineteen 0:00:59.160 --> 0:01:01.880 and around the world Old on Bloomberg Radio dot Com 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:08.800 and via The Bloomberg Business. Good Morning, I'm Nathan Hagar. 0:01:09.319 --> 0:01:13.000 And I'm Karen. Moscow and global stocks are tumbling again 0:01:13.080 --> 0:01:14.920 to start the week. We are coming up to thought 0:01:14.959 --> 0:01:16.600 on one on Wall Street and gonna check the markets 0:01:16.600 --> 0:01:19.880 every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg. Right now, 0:01:19.920 --> 0:01:22.760 the SMP futures are down sixty four points down, futures 0:01:22.800 --> 0:01:26.240 down four hundred seventy and NASDAG futures down two hundred 0:01:26.319 --> 0:01:29.280 thirty or one point seven percent. A ten year treasury 0:01:29.280 --> 0:01:32.480 down to thirty seconds. They at one point seven three percent, 0:01:32.520 --> 0:01:34.360 and they yield on the two year one point for 0:01:34.560 --> 0:01:36.960 eight percent. Nathan Karen will have more on the sell 0:01:37.000 --> 0:01:39.240 off in just a minute, but first the latest developments 0:01:39.240 --> 0:01:41.720 in the war in Ukraine. Russia says it has agreed 0:01:41.760 --> 0:01:45.000 to a ceasefire to open up humanitarian corridors in some cities, 0:01:45.280 --> 0:01:47.880 but Ukraine says Moscow is still shooting near the capital 0:01:47.960 --> 0:01:50.240 Kiev and near the port city of Mario, Pol where 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:54.280 about two hundred thousand civilians are trapped. Ukraine's president Vladimir 0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:56.840 z Alinski is pleading with the US and Europe for 0:01:56.920 --> 0:02:00.960 a no fly zone. Don't if you don't impose a 0:02:01.000 --> 0:02:03.120 no fly zone, if you at least don't give us 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:06.400 planes so that we can defend ourselves, then there can 0:02:06.440 --> 0:02:09.400 be only one conclusion. You also want us to be 0:02:09.480 --> 0:02:13.960 slowly killed. This is the responsibility of world's politicians Western 0:02:14.080 --> 0:02:17.600 leaders today and forever. President z Lensky spoke with US 0:02:17.639 --> 0:02:20.120 President Joe Biden over the weekend. A third round of 0:02:20.160 --> 0:02:23.480 talks between Ukraine and Russia is set for today. Meantime, 0:02:23.600 --> 0:02:27.000 Nathan the US is planning to send more aircraft to Ukraine, 0:02:27.000 --> 0:02:30.040 and Bloomberg said Baxter has the story. Secretary of State 0:02:30.040 --> 0:02:33.040 Anthony Lincoln says, the US is actively talking with NATO 0:02:33.120 --> 0:02:35.400 countries about getting hell been that gets a green light. 0:02:35.480 --> 0:02:38.760 In fact, we're talking with our Polish friends right now 0:02:39.240 --> 0:02:41.239 about what we might be able to do to backfill 0:02:41.840 --> 0:02:44.760 their needs if in fact they choose to provide these 0:02:44.760 --> 0:02:47.359 fighter jets to to the Ukrainians, So the US would 0:02:47.360 --> 0:02:50.239 be directly and indirectly helping this. As he says, the 0:02:50.280 --> 0:02:53.760 world should expect a long war there, and Russian President 0:02:53.760 --> 0:02:56.120 of Vladimir Putin says that he will not end the 0:02:56.160 --> 0:03:00.320 invasion until Ukraine agrees to all of his demand ends 0:03:00.880 --> 0:03:04.239 In San Francisco, I met Baxter Bloomberg daybreak. Thanks said, 0:03:04.360 --> 0:03:08.239 Russia finds itself increasingly isolated, but China this morning is 0:03:08.280 --> 0:03:11.320 declaring its ties with Moscow to be quote rock solid, 0:03:11.400 --> 0:03:15.480 despite President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine. China's foreign minister 0:03:15.600 --> 0:03:17.840 is also accusing the US of trying to build a 0:03:17.840 --> 0:03:21.120 new version of NATO in the Pacific energy markets. Also 0:03:21.200 --> 0:03:23.799 in focus this morning, Nathan sources say the White House 0:03:23.880 --> 0:03:26.920 is considering whether to prohibit Russian oil import to the 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:30.880 US is considering a unilateral move without the participation of 0:03:30.919 --> 0:03:34.480 allies in Europe, at least initially. Secretary of State Anthony B. 0:03:34.520 --> 0:03:37.800 Lincoln discussed the plans on CNN. We are now talking 0:03:38.280 --> 0:03:40.720 to our European partners and allies to look in a 0:03:40.760 --> 0:03:44.640 coordinated way at the prospect of banning the import of 0:03:44.720 --> 0:03:47.880 Russian oil while making sure that there is still an 0:03:47.880 --> 0:03:50.600 appropriate supply of oil on world markets. That's a very 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:53.840 active discussion as we speak. Secretary of State Anthony Blancoin 0:03:53.960 --> 0:03:57.200 meets with his Israeli counterpart today to discuss the situation 0:03:57.280 --> 0:04:00.600 in Ukraine, among other matters. Following those men scaring we 0:04:00.640 --> 0:04:03.120 saw oil sword to just shy of a hundred forty 0:04:03.160 --> 0:04:05.440 dollars of barrel Right now, Brent crudes at a hundred 0:04:05.480 --> 0:04:07.680 twenty five dollars twenty six cents of barrel, while West 0:04:07.720 --> 0:04:11.680 Texas intermediates at a hundred eighty nine cents. Other commodities 0:04:11.720 --> 0:04:14.920 are also rallying. This morning. Gold futures jumped above two 0:04:14.920 --> 0:04:17.040 thousand dollars and ounced for the first time in more 0:04:17.040 --> 0:04:20.560 than eighteen months, while copper and palladium hit all time highs. 0:04:20.800 --> 0:04:24.200 Nicols spiked as much as thirty one while we slammed 0:04:24.200 --> 0:04:26.600 the daily upward limit for the sixth day in a row. 0:04:26.960 --> 0:04:29.440 Welcome about it. These are searching. Nathan's stocks are selling 0:04:29.480 --> 0:04:31.600 off around the world. We're seeing some of the biggest 0:04:31.640 --> 0:04:34.040 drops in Europe, and we head to London and get 0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:36.480 the very latest live with the Bloombergs. You and Pot's 0:04:36.520 --> 0:04:38.960 good morning You and good morning Counting Nathan. Major stock 0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:42.040 markets from Europe's Asia heading for bear markets today, falling 0:04:42.080 --> 0:04:44.680 more than twenty percent from their highs. That's a made 0:04:44.760 --> 0:04:47.720 fairs of an inflation shock and perhaps a growth shock 0:04:48.080 --> 0:04:50.960 in the world economy. As crude source on the prospects 0:04:51.000 --> 0:04:55.640 of a ban on Russian supplies, Banks, carmakers and retailers 0:04:55.800 --> 0:05:00.360 leading losses today defense companies gaining energy and mining stops 0:05:00.400 --> 0:05:03.400 the only sectors in the green today around Europe Live 0:05:03.560 --> 0:05:05.760 in London, I'm you and part spin by daybreak, Okay 0:05:05.800 --> 0:05:07.800 you and thank you. We also saw heavy selling in 0:05:07.880 --> 0:05:10.920 Asia overnight. Let's get the recap from Bloomberg's Juliette Sally 0:05:10.960 --> 0:05:13.800 in Singapore. Good morning, Juliet, Good morning, Nathan and Karen. 0:05:13.839 --> 0:05:15.880 The m s CI Asia Pacific Index was on course 0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:17.800 for a bear market, a drop of more than twenty 0:05:17.839 --> 0:05:21.120 percent from its February one peak. Japan's n K two 0:05:21.160 --> 0:05:23.400 to five index had its worst session in a year, 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:26.559 falling to November twenty twenty levels, Hong Kong stocks falling 0:05:26.600 --> 0:05:29.479 two July twenty sixteen lows. China c s I three 0:05:29.520 --> 0:05:32.160 hundred entered further into bear market territory, falling fourth at 0:05:32.160 --> 0:05:35.520 the fourth straight session. This despite a policy statement from 0:05:35.520 --> 0:05:38.120 the Nashville People's Congress over the weekend which failed to 0:05:38.160 --> 0:05:42.400 offer meaningful support for the market. In Singapore, Juliette Sally 0:05:42.560 --> 0:05:45.760 Bloomberg Daybreak, Right, Juliet, thank you. As Stark sell off, 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:49.400 more analysts are downgrading their outlook for US equities. We 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:52.400 get the latest forecast live from Bloomberg's Renny to Young, 0:05:52.400 --> 0:05:55.640 Good morning Radia, Good morning Karen. Yourdinly Research predicts the 0:05:55.760 --> 0:05:58.200 S and P five hundred will drop another eight percent 0:05:58.320 --> 0:06:00.960 to about four thousand by the end of this year. 0:06:01.240 --> 0:06:05.279 Chief investment strategist ed Ardini says a recession cannot be 0:06:05.440 --> 0:06:08.880 ruled out given that jump in oil prices. Every corps 0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:10.920 I s I says the S and P could fall 0:06:11.000 --> 0:06:14.960 as low as thirty seven hundred. Chief equity strategist Julian 0:06:15.000 --> 0:06:18.720 Emmanuel says a drop of about fifteen percent from Friday's 0:06:18.760 --> 0:06:22.039 Clothes could trigger action from the Federal Reserve to help 0:06:22.080 --> 0:06:26.080 stabilize markets. Before the war, the median SMP target for 0:06:26.120 --> 0:06:30.799 strategists was around five thousand. Now it's about forty three hundred. 0:06:31.240 --> 0:06:34.200 Live in New York. I'm Ranita Young, Bloomberg, Daybreak. Thanks 0:06:34.240 --> 0:06:37.120 Unitas the war in Ukraine intensifies, the list of companies 0:06:37.120 --> 0:06:39.719 cutting ties with Russia is growing. Let's get the latest 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:43.800 on that from Bloomberg's Lisa Matteo. Netflix, TikTok, Samsung, and 0:06:43.920 --> 0:06:47.159 credit card operators are the latest either cut ties or 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:50.680 review their operations in Russia. Netflix, which has been available 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:53.640 in Russia since two thousand, sixteen has under one million 0:06:53.680 --> 0:06:56.320 customers in the country. Over the weekend, Visa and master 0:06:56.400 --> 0:06:59.719 Card also said they were suspending operations in Russia. Each 0:06:59.760 --> 0:07:02.480 gets about four percent of its net revenue from business 0:07:02.600 --> 0:07:05.839 link to Russia, and yesterday American Express said it was 0:07:05.920 --> 0:07:09.640 the spending its operations in Russia and Belarus. Lisa Mateo 0:07:09.760 --> 0:07:13.040 Bloomberg Daybreak. Okay, Lisa, thanks right now. SMP features are 0:07:13.040 --> 0:07:15.080 down sixty seven points, a drop of one and a 0:07:15.080 --> 0:07:17.640 half percent. Straight ahead your latest local headlines and the 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:24.160 check of sports. This is Bloomberg five oh seven on 0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:26.600 Wall Street, sixty three degrees in Central Park. We gotta 0:07:26.640 --> 0:07:28.920 crash on northbound Root nine year New Brunswick Avenue and 0:07:28.960 --> 0:07:31.720 Board Bridge. Details coming up in traffic. First Michael Barr 0:07:31.840 --> 0:07:33.520 with more on what's going on in New York and 0:07:33.560 --> 0:07:36.200 around the world. Good morning, Michael, Good morning Nathan. Former 0:07:36.240 --> 0:07:38.880 New York Governor Andrew Cuomo appeared to be hitting at 0:07:38.920 --> 0:07:42.680 a political comeback in remarks at a Brooklyn church on Sunday. 0:07:42.880 --> 0:07:47.000 The Democrats said he acknowledged his behavior wasn't appropriate, but 0:07:47.120 --> 0:07:50.240 he had decried the political sharks in Albany who used 0:07:50.320 --> 0:07:54.120 the accusations too in his words, effectively overturned an election. 0:07:54.400 --> 0:07:57.119 Probably no, I've gone through a difficult period the past 0:07:57.160 --> 0:08:01.200 few months. I resigned as governor of the press roasted me. 0:08:01.320 --> 0:08:06.360 My colleagues were ridiculed, my brother was fired. It was ugly. 0:08:07.440 --> 0:08:10.960 It was probably the toughest time of my life. Cuomo 0:08:11.040 --> 0:08:14.720 resigned in August, days after an independent probe concluded he's 0:08:14.720 --> 0:08:18.920 sensually harassed eleven women, something he denies. It's the next 0:08:19.000 --> 0:08:22.160 chapter for New York City about the COVID pandemic. Starting today, 0:08:22.200 --> 0:08:26.080 the city is dropping several mandates, including masks in schools 0:08:26.120 --> 0:08:30.080 and vaccination requirements for businesses. Also, today, restaurants were no 0:08:30.160 --> 0:08:34.040 longer asked for proof of vaccination before entering. Meanwhile, COVID 0:08:34.160 --> 0:08:37.080 nineteen deaths are about to hit the six million mark 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:40.959 in the world. It's another tragic reminder about the deadliness 0:08:41.080 --> 0:08:44.600 of the pandemic. Even as masks are dropping and businesses 0:08:44.640 --> 0:08:47.360 are reopening around the globe, the US is nearing one 0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:51.560 million deaths alone. Vice President Kamala Harris was in Selma, Alabama, 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:54.160 to mark the anniversary of a defining moment and to 0:08:54.200 --> 0:08:58.160 find for equal voting rights. On March seventh, nineteen sixty 0:08:58.240 --> 0:09:02.160 five white state troopers beaten tear gas black voting rights 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:06.000 marchers attempting to cross the Edmund Pettis Bridge. Harris val 0:09:06.200 --> 0:09:10.240 to push for federal legislation that guarantees voting rights across 0:09:10.320 --> 0:09:16.480 the country. States past anti voting lawns laws that banned 0:09:16.600 --> 0:09:20.640 drop boxes and restrict early voting. Vice President Harris says 0:09:20.640 --> 0:09:23.120 the bravery of those fifty seven years ago as a 0:09:23.200 --> 0:09:26.480 reminder that freedom and democracy can never be taken for granted. 0:09:26.840 --> 0:09:29.920 Seven people are dead after tornado swept through central Iowa. 0:09:29.960 --> 0:09:33.319 Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds talked about the hundreds of volunteers 0:09:33.320 --> 0:09:36.080 who showed up to help. We show up, We take 0:09:36.120 --> 0:09:38.480 care of our family, We take care of our neighbors, 0:09:38.840 --> 0:09:41.880 and we take care of our community. Governor Reynolds says 0:09:41.920 --> 0:09:44.160 the deadly tornado had winds of up to a hundred 0:09:44.240 --> 0:09:47.960 sixty five. Global news twenty four hours a day on 0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:52.160 air and on Bloomberg quit think, powered by more than journalists. 0:09:52.160 --> 0:09:54.880 Analyist are more than a hundred twenty countries. I'm Michael Barr, 0:09:54.920 --> 0:10:02.080 This is Bloomberg. Nathan. Thanks Michael five O nine on 0:10:02.120 --> 0:10:04.240 Ball Street time for the Bloomberg Sports up taking morning 0:10:04.280 --> 0:10:07.079 John Stan Showery Nathan Nix in l A. They jumped 0:10:07.080 --> 0:10:09.360 in front of the second quarter at starting the Clippers 0:10:09.360 --> 0:10:12.199 thirty four to eighteen. Forgive Nick fans if they weren't 0:10:12.240 --> 0:10:16.040 celebrating yet. During this stretch of seventh straight losses sixteen 0:10:16.040 --> 0:10:18.520 in their last nineteen, the nixt had size of the 0:10:18.640 --> 0:10:21.320 lead seemingly every game they kept blowing the lads. This 0:10:21.400 --> 0:10:25.199 time they didn't. They beat the Clippers one sixtee R J. 0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:28.480 Barrett sent four point Emmanuel quickly twenty one to coach 0:10:28.880 --> 0:10:32.360 Tom Thibeeau from the All Star break off. We played 0:10:32.400 --> 0:10:34.280 well in the Miami game. We played well. In both 0:10:34.320 --> 0:10:37.439 Philadelphia games. We played well. We don't have anything to 0:10:37.480 --> 0:10:40.280 show for it. That's unfortunate part. We didn't close it out. 0:10:41.120 --> 0:10:45.400 But in tonight we played well from start to finish, 0:10:45.720 --> 0:10:47.959 and so hopefully we can go on it and play 0:10:48.040 --> 0:10:51.120 tonight in Sacramento, chance for their first two game win 0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:54.240 streaking almost two months, as the Nets couldn't stop Jason 0:10:54.280 --> 0:10:57.280 Tatum in Boston. He poured in fifty four points, thirty 0:10:57.320 --> 0:11:00.640 four in the second half. Red hot Celtics one once two, 0:11:00.679 --> 0:11:02.880 one twenty. They've won fourteen of their last six team 0:11:02.920 --> 0:11:05.719 the Nets have lost seventeen of their last twenty. They're 0:11:05.760 --> 0:11:08.600 now under five hundred. Kevin Durrant led Brooklyn with thirty seven. 0:11:08.960 --> 0:11:11.920 He went over twenty five thousand career points twenty three 0:11:12.280 --> 0:11:14.640 in NBA history to do that. Solid win for the Rangers. 0:11:14.679 --> 0:11:16.319 Pair of goals in the first period, two more in 0:11:16.360 --> 0:11:19.120 the third. They won four one at Winnipeg, two goals 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:21.560 for Chris cry At our numbers thirty seven and thirty eight. 0:11:21.840 --> 0:11:24.480 Baseball players made a concession in an effort to end 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:27.280 the lockout, giving their blessings to rule changes like a 0:11:27.360 --> 0:11:30.599 pitch clock and a reduction of shifting, but the economic 0:11:30.720 --> 0:11:33.240 issues remain. In fact, MLB says the two sides are 0:11:33.240 --> 0:11:36.800 now further apart. Another week's worth of regular season games 0:11:36.880 --> 0:11:40.360 may soon get canceled. John Stash, Edward Bloomberg Sports Nathan 0:11:40.640 --> 0:11:43.400 Thanks john SMP futures down to down sixty five points, 0:11:43.400 --> 0:11:46.280 SOUND futures down four undred seventy four, Nanstact futures lowered 0:11:46.320 --> 0:11:49.640 by two hundred twenty seven points Following European stocks lower. 0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:52.320 The decks in Germany is down three point four percent 0:11:52.760 --> 0:11:55.760 CAC and Harris down three percent. Get the latest on 0:11:55.920 --> 0:11:58.920 this market with Lori Calvacin ahead of US Equity strategy 0:11:59.040 --> 0:12:01.880 at RBC Capital Markets, she joins US. Next to this 0:12:02.760 --> 0:12:09.800 is Bloomberg Bloomberg eleven three oh weather created increasing clouds today, 0:12:09.840 --> 0:12:12.760 showers and thunderstorms possible. The high near seventy degrees will 0:12:12.800 --> 0:12:16.200 be mostly sunny, breezy and cooler tomorrow upper forties, mid forties, 0:12:16.320 --> 0:12:19.280 mostly cloudy by Wednesday. Currently sixty three in Central Park 0:12:21.920 --> 0:12:25.280 Markets headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day 0:12:25.440 --> 0:12:28.400 at Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Business Out and at 0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:37.920 Bloomberg Victap. This is a Bloomberg Business flash and I'm 0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:41.120 Karen Moscow. Major stock markets from Europe to Asia heading 0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:44.040 for bear markets following more than twenty percent from highs 0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:46.600 and mid fears of an inflation shock as crude oil 0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:49.240 soars on the prospect of a ban on Russian supplies. 0:12:49.520 --> 0:12:51.880 We checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading 0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:54.800 day on Bloomberg Guess and P future is down sixty 0:12:54.840 --> 0:12:57.640 three points this morning. Down futures down four D seventy 0:12:57.720 --> 0:13:00.959 three and NASDAC futures down two D at seventeen or 0:13:01.000 --> 0:13:04.200 down about one point six percent. The decks in Germany 0:13:04.320 --> 0:13:06.800 is down three and a quarter percent. Pen your treasury 0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:09.360 down one thirty second you have one point seven three percent. 0:13:09.440 --> 0:13:11.720 They yield on the two year one point four eight percent. 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:15.480 Nimex screwed oil is up five point nine percent of 0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:17.880 six dollars eighty seven cents at a hundred twenty two 0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:20.720 dollars fifty five cents a barrel. Comic schoold is at 0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:23.240 one point nine percent or thirty six dollars fifty cents 0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:26.480 at two thousand three dollars thirty cents and ounce. The 0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:29.839 euro one point zero eight three three against the dollar, 0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:32.640 British pound one point three one six eight. The ends 0:13:32.679 --> 0:13:35.839 at one fifteen point o nine Bitcoin this morning, moving 0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:39.079 lower down two percent, is at thirty eight thousand, two 0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:42.080 hundred forty dollars as a Bloomberg Business flash. Now, here's 0:13:42.120 --> 0:13:44.760 Michael Barr with more on what's going on around the world. Muncil. 0:13:44.800 --> 0:13:47.960 Good morning, Good morning, Karen. President Vladimir Putin said again 0:13:48.040 --> 0:13:51.839 the war will continue until Ukraine accepts his demands and 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:56.040 holds resistance, timming hopes for a negotiated settlement. Meanwhile, a 0:13:56.120 --> 0:13:59.559 representative for Kiev has urged the United Nations top court 0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:03.319 to order Russia to hold its devastating invasion of Ukraine. 0:14:03.760 --> 0:14:05.880 In the NBA, the next one, the Celtics beat the 0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:09.719 Nets one twenty. The Wizards won. In the NHL, the 0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:12.800 Devil's beat the Blues and overtime three to the Rangers one. 0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:16.920 Major League Baseball reacted angrily to the latest offer by 0:14:17.040 --> 0:14:21.160 locked out players when bargaining resumes Sunday. Management accused the 0:14:21.240 --> 0:14:24.680 Union of backtracking and showing no sign of a breakthrough 0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:28.240 to get the derailed season back on track. Global News 0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:31.040 twenty four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg 0:14:31.160 --> 0:14:34.320 Quick Take, powered by more than twenty seven under journalists 0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:36.800 and analysts and more than a hundred twenty countries. How 0:14:36.880 --> 0:14:39.920 Michael Bard, this is Bloomberg, Nathan Alright, Michael. Thanks, It's 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:42.920 five nineteen on Wall Street Live from the Bloomberg Interactive 0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:46.560 Broker Studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak and Lori Calvacina is 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:49.080 with us now head of US Equity Strategy at RBC 0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:51.160 Capital Markets, at the start of what's looking to be 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:54.480 a very difficult day for equity investors. Lorie, good morning. 0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:57.760 Are we looking at a bear market here? All right? Well? 0:14:57.800 --> 0:15:00.400 Thanks for having me. We'll look, we're certainly looking at 0:15:00.440 --> 0:15:03.240 a very difficult stretch in the equity market, and I 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:05.800 think at our worst we've been down about twelve percent 0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:08.280 from peak, and we've said that this episode to us 0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:11.280 feels like a growth scare, and growth scares ten take 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:14.160 stocks fourteen down from their peak. So I don't know 0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:15.640 if you want to call that a bear market or 0:15:15.720 --> 0:15:18.880 something worse, UM, but it is. You know, it does 0:15:18.960 --> 0:15:20.880 look to me like that's the kind of period we're in. 0:15:21.000 --> 0:15:22.360 So we don't think that we've you know, in the 0:15:22.520 --> 0:15:24.920 very short term at least uh seen an end to 0:15:25.000 --> 0:15:29.160 the downside. In the past, you've said that you're targeting 0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:32.480 fifty fifty five thousand fifty for the SMP at the 0:15:32.560 --> 0:15:35.120 end of this year. Are you sticking with that? So 0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:37.120 we stuck with it from now, and we put out 0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:39.600 a piece on Friday basically saying we're going to continue 0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:41.320 to be nimble in our forecast. And the way I 0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:43.880 put it with this was was this way that at 0:15:43.960 --> 0:15:45.760 this point in time, we can still see a path 0:15:45.920 --> 0:15:48.880 now that would assume that we get some resolution UM 0:15:49.000 --> 0:15:51.120 in the intermediate term of this crisis and do get 0:15:51.160 --> 0:15:53.320 those loads that I mentioned in the market, those kind 0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:55.840 of growth scare pricing. We basically assumed that we see 0:15:55.880 --> 0:15:58.840 a seventeen percent type drop from the peak that we 0:15:58.920 --> 0:16:01.120 saw earlier this year, which is your average growth scare 0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:03.400 type of clients. And we did do it take a 0:16:03.480 --> 0:16:06.400 quick look, you know, just to see how quickly and 0:16:06.520 --> 0:16:09.360 how powerfully markets recover and those growth scares once they 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:11.880 make those decline, and we did see that the recoveries 0:16:11.920 --> 0:16:14.160 tend to be pretty swift and powerful. You can get 0:16:14.240 --> 0:16:17.080 to get back to pre crisis highs in the market 0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:19.800 within four to five months of making a bottom UM 0:16:19.880 --> 0:16:22.240 and tend to see about twenty seven type games on 0:16:22.320 --> 0:16:24.600 a ten months forward basis, So you know, we do 0:16:24.680 --> 0:16:27.240 see a path now that's very different right from saying 0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:28.920 that I'm pounding the table in the market, and I 0:16:28.960 --> 0:16:31.440 really resist that term UM. But the other thing we 0:16:31.560 --> 0:16:33.480 have talked about is that if you look at sentiment 0:16:33.520 --> 0:16:37.040 gauges like the a AII Net Bullbear Survey UM, they 0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:41.320 have basically been below pandemic lows recently UM, and they 0:16:41.360 --> 0:16:43.280 do tend to give you a very strong BI signal 0:16:43.360 --> 0:16:45.640 on the market on twelve months forward basis. So you know, 0:16:45.640 --> 0:16:48.160 I would emphasize the tone, we can see a path. 0:16:48.280 --> 0:16:50.560 We're not pounding the table here though necessarily and again 0:16:50.600 --> 0:16:52.920 we do see some potential for interim downside that can 0:16:52.920 --> 0:16:54.680 be worse than what we've already seen just based on 0:16:54.760 --> 0:16:57.160 the growth scare analysis. Is there any way to game 0:16:57.200 --> 0:17:00.360 out how long that interim downside lasts? Yea, I mean, 0:17:00.400 --> 0:17:02.800 it's got all depend on how the war goes, doesn't it. 0:17:03.960 --> 0:17:05.920 I think that's right, And I think the problem with 0:17:06.040 --> 0:17:08.280 the war, I mean, there are many many problems with 0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:10.080 the war and the staff market I would put, you know, 0:17:10.160 --> 0:17:12.600 sort of at the bottom of that of that list 0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:15.280 of priorities here. Um. But look, I think the problem 0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:18.800 is that it is an inherently unpredictable situation. And I 0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:20.560 do think that if you look at pricing in the 0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:23.040 S and P five hundreds, it does look like it 0:17:23.240 --> 0:17:25.960 is trying to stabilize. Now. Of course, you know, the 0:17:26.000 --> 0:17:28.160 features are down pretty big this morning, but the market, 0:17:28.240 --> 0:17:30.840 I think sort of that that sideways move we've seen 0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:33.920 in recent weeks is reflecting sort of the inherent uncertainty, 0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:37.479 um that's associated with this crisis right now. So when 0:17:37.520 --> 0:17:39.800 you talk about a growth shock, at least in the interim, 0:17:39.880 --> 0:17:42.920 is is that pointing to stagflation? Is that something you're 0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:45.760 thinking about in your forecast. So I don't love the 0:17:45.880 --> 0:17:48.840 term stagflation. I mean, to me, the most important part 0:17:49.000 --> 0:17:52.960 it is really just the rattling down of economic growth expectations. 0:17:53.600 --> 0:17:56.280 And you know, we we've assumed essentially at this point 0:17:56.320 --> 0:17:59.320 in time that we'll we'll see some erosion and economic 0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:02.960 forecast UM, but not necessarily pulling this into a recession. 0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:05.680 That's something we've consulted very closely with our economists. So 0:18:05.800 --> 0:18:08.320 I've um and that's his view at the moment. But 0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:09.800 you know, if you look at sort of the high 0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:12.000 sleep with the indicators, and I think we're somewhat lucky 0:18:12.080 --> 0:18:14.119 we've come out of this COVID period. People like me 0:18:14.240 --> 0:18:17.280 have a whole arsenal of high frequency economic barometers to 0:18:17.359 --> 0:18:19.720 look at. UM. What we're seeing for the time being 0:18:19.800 --> 0:18:22.360 at least, is that we are continuing to come out 0:18:22.400 --> 0:18:25.240 of COVID. We're continuing to see a recovery and diving 0:18:25.359 --> 0:18:27.639 and flying despite the challenges that emerged. We need to 0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:30.000 see if the consumer does hold up UM, but for 0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:32.080 now we're not seeing reasons to panic in the data. 0:18:32.600 --> 0:18:34.560 In our last minute here Laurie, where do you look 0:18:34.600 --> 0:18:38.200 for havens? Are there stock havens for you? So I 0:18:38.240 --> 0:18:41.000 think it's very difficult when you think about defensive sectors 0:18:41.080 --> 0:18:43.679 to play the safe having game. Consumer staples is an 0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:45.760 area that people have been trying to go to and 0:18:46.280 --> 0:18:48.840 and frankly, it's one of the worst possible areas you 0:18:48.880 --> 0:18:50.919 could be at. And if you look at the intersections 0:18:51.000 --> 0:18:54.960 of risks from this crisis, in particular, things like food prices, sentiment, 0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:59.080 European economic exposure, energy and non commodity and non energy 0:18:59.119 --> 0:19:02.320 commodity prices all intersect there um. The dollar has been 0:19:02.359 --> 0:19:04.840 the safe haven. The US equity market, frankly has been 0:19:04.880 --> 0:19:07.320 the safe haven outperforming rest of the world, and that 0:19:07.440 --> 0:19:10.479 does give us a little bit of a buffer. As always, 0:19:10.560 --> 0:19:12.600 good to have your thoughts. Thanks for this, LORI really 0:19:12.640 --> 0:19:16.040 appreciate it. Lori Calvacina is head of US Equity strategy 0:19:16.200 --> 0:19:19.120 at RBC Capital Markets. And as you look at US 0:19:19.160 --> 0:19:21.920 equities this morning, they're pointing to a much lower open, 0:19:21.960 --> 0:19:24.800 with SMP futures now down sixty points or one point 0:19:24.880 --> 0:19:27.720 four percent down. Futures are down four undred fifty four 0:19:27.760 --> 0:19:30.320 points in NASDAC futures, leading the declines. Right now, they're 0:19:30.359 --> 0:19:32.960 down two hundred fourteen points. That's a drop of about 0:19:33.000 --> 0:19:36.000 one and a half percent. Germany's docks down three percent. 0:19:36.119 --> 0:19:38.520 The cack in Paris down too and two thirds percent. 0:19:38.680 --> 0:19:41.840 Right now, the tenure treasury is down three thirty seconds, 0:19:41.920 --> 0:19:44.480 yield one point seven four percent. The yield on the 0:19:44.520 --> 0:19:48.120 two year right now one point four nine. Oil surging 0:19:48.240 --> 0:19:50.480 once again this morning. We have Brent crewed up six 0:19:50.560 --> 0:19:52.879 point two percent, or seven dollars thirty three cents a 0:19:52.960 --> 0:19:55.840 hundred twenty five dollars forty one cents a barrel. West 0:19:55.880 --> 0:19:58.640 Texas Intermediate's at a hundred twenty two dollars seventy one 0:19:58.720 --> 0:20:01.480 sets day with us for the very latest on the 0:20:01.520 --> 0:20:08.520 war in Ukraine. This is Bloomberg Bloomberg eleven three oh Weather. 0:20:08.600 --> 0:20:11.360 Increasing cloud showers and thunderstorms today with a high near 0:20:11.440 --> 0:20:14.080 seventy degrees. There will be mostly sunny, breezy and cooler 0:20:14.119 --> 0:20:17.399 tomorrow upper forties for highs mid forties by Wednesday. Right 0:20:17.400 --> 0:20:23.600 now sixty two in Central Park, broadcasting live from the 0:20:23.720 --> 0:20:27.680 Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York. Bloomberg E Loving 0:20:27.720 --> 0:20:32.200 Freed to Washington, d C. Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg on 0:20:32.560 --> 0:20:35.639 six one, to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixty to the 0:20:35.680 --> 0:20:39.159 country Sirius XM Total one nineteen and around the globe 0:20:39.240 --> 0:20:42.720 the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This 0:20:43.200 --> 0:20:51.920 is Bloomberg Daybreak. It's five thirty on Wall Street. Good morning. 0:20:51.920 --> 0:20:55.280 I'm Nathan Hagar and I'm Karen Moscow. We're just about 0:20:55.359 --> 0:20:57.960 four hours away from the open of US trading. Let's 0:20:58.000 --> 0:20:59.359 get you up to date on the news. You need 0:20:59.440 --> 0:21:01.800