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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Action.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go from throwing out respect, we're

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Speaker 2: saying it's a cash touchdowns. We see most gamble is

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Speaker 2: when they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Being bank small banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate combine you want to

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Speaker 3: and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I

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Speaker 2: am your host, Evan Abrams, and I am joined by

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Speaker 2: Brandon Anderson for some best bets for NFL Week seven.

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Speaker 2: We'll get to those bets shortly, but first we've got

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Speaker 2: some fun trends, some talking points. Just entering this week's slate,

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Speaker 2: I feel like the only thing to talk about we're

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Speaker 2: talking about this season as a whole, at least so far,

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Speaker 2: is just the unexpected and some of the comebacks. So

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Speaker 2: when I say unexpected, because we really didn't have any

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Speaker 2: four to oats or zero to four ats teams to

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Speaker 2: begin the year, and now we've gone six straight weeks

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Speaker 2: of teams with sixty percent of tickets or meyer under

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Speaker 2: five hundred against the spread. They are fifteen and thirty

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Speaker 2: six against the spread on the season, seventy percent or

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Speaker 2: more four and sixteen against the spread. Ridiculous. Now, this

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Speaker 2: is from Action Network bet Labs data, which has like

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Speaker 2: a conglomerate of a lot of different sportsbooks, but data

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Speaker 2: is good and the numbers are crazy. So that's one

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Speaker 2: part comeback part. So teams who were trailing at the

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Speaker 2: half are fifty three and thirty four sixty one percent

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Speaker 2: against the second half spread this season. They were ten

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Speaker 2: and four second half ats last week, nineteen and eight

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Speaker 2: over the last two weeks, and even if you go

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Speaker 2: back to twenty twenty two, these teams are fifty six

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Speaker 2: point three percent second half ats, So this year kind

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Speaker 2: of continuing the trend of just comebacks. A few other

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Speaker 2: things I'll add before we get Brandon's thoughts here. Panthers

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Speaker 2: are favorite this week if you haven't looked at the

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Speaker 2: board yet, been four years since they last covered as

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Speaker 2: a favorite. Ten straight losses fired head coaches becoming a

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Speaker 2: topic this week with Callahan out, and of course with

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Speaker 2: the Titans ten game ats losing streak at home eleven

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Speaker 2: would be the record for them, So that's on the

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Speaker 2: line against New England, and I feel like the other

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Speaker 2: fund one of the Bears five and zero to their

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Speaker 2: team total over only undefeated team left in the NFL,

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Speaker 2: and contrary to what we've seen mostly lately, which is

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Speaker 2: about five hundred ball from them in terms of team

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Speaker 2: total overs. So, Brandon, what do you want to poke at?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, justice for Ben Johnson, all our Ben Johnson talk

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Speaker 3: coming to fruition with that Bears offense.

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Speaker 1: Titans.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned the Ats losing streak, So I have a

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Speaker 3: stat that was going to come up later. First eight

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Speaker 3: games of season since twenty twenty two home underdogs of

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Speaker 3: seven or more, which looks like the Titans will be

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Speaker 3: eighteen one and two against the spread. That is not

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Speaker 3: a mistake ready, By the way, this year was Giants

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Speaker 3: Eagles upset out right and Brown's Packers upset out right,

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Speaker 3: So maybe a little bit of upset watch in the

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Speaker 3: old Rabel Bowl there. And yeah, Panthers' favorites. We went

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Speaker 3: on Panthers money line plus one hundred on the hot read.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna hold the line. I don't love like I'd

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Speaker 3: rather have them be the underdog edge, but the whole

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Speaker 3: point was that we got the plus one hundred money line,

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Speaker 3: so we'll hold out their road favorites too, not just favorites.

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Speaker 3: So we'll see how that goes. And yeah, the comeback

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Speaker 3: trend continues to be a thing. We kind of lucked

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Speaker 3: into it a little bit Monday night. I'd played Bill's

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Speaker 3: second half, so a thing here if you think a

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Speaker 3: team is going to trail early and maybe be more

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Speaker 3: of a second half team. That wasn't really my play

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Speaker 3: with the Bills, I'll be honest. I just thought they're

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Speaker 3: gonna win. They did not, but they did cover the

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Speaker 3: second half line, which by the time, if you wait

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Speaker 3: till halftime, you're getting a different second half line. And

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Speaker 3: since the Bills were down fourteen and almost twenty one

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Speaker 3: till that last from Drake London, then that line was

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Speaker 3: much longer. We got a two and a half. We

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Speaker 3: kind of accidentally locked into a cover there as the

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Speaker 3: Falcon settled for the late field goal. So if you

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Speaker 3: like a second half play, if you think a team

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Speaker 3: might need a comeback, play that before the game. Don't

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Speaker 3: wait around or even do like the halftime full time

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Speaker 3: or you know, put them together. Make it worth your

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Speaker 3: money if you like that sort of comeback spot.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and to be clear on those numbers, those are

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Speaker 2: second half numbers at the half, so basically that is

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Speaker 2: reacting to whatever happens in the first half, and if

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Speaker 2: you're betting a pregame, getting a completely different number, but

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Speaker 2: also a bit of a different strategy. All right, So

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Speaker 2: before we move on, don't forget to sign up for

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Speaker 2: action Pro real time pick alerts from experts like Brandon Anderson, myself,

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Speaker 2: our entire Action hour team, Plus you can access our

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Speaker 2: pro projections are by Sean Kerner and our predictive analytics team.

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Speaker 2: Just go to actioneerk dot com slash pro. Get twenty

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Speaker 2: of action Pro. All right, it's time to get into

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Speaker 2: some best bets for week seven. So if you want

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Speaker 2: to tail some of these bets, just look for the

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Speaker 2: quick slip link in the podcast and video description or

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Speaker 2: go to actionework dot com slash bet Now. So we

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Speaker 2: have a bit of a new concept here, at least

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Speaker 2: Brandon does. On Action hour dot Com. He's doing something

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Speaker 2: called the Pick six basically every single week, putting together

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Speaker 2: a sixteen parlay of just money lines. It's on the website,

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Speaker 2: check it out. It's already out there. But Brandon kind

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Speaker 2: of walk us through this one of the picks, and

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Speaker 2: then you've got a bit of an extra point something

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Speaker 2: fun us how you already posted.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is really simple.

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Speaker 3: I know we've got our six pack on the podcast already.

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Speaker 3: Those are ats picks. This is a six money line parlay.

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Speaker 3: So just the idea is after Monday night, get some

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Speaker 3: early picks out for the week, mostly favorites usually is

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Speaker 3: probably what's going to happen here, were knowing for huge

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Speaker 3: long shots or else we're gonna get some crazy odds

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Speaker 3: and probably not them. Usually hopefully we hit this two

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Speaker 3: three times end of the season, come out ahead with

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Speaker 3: our parlays. So yeah, just kind of some early games

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Speaker 3: I will be eyeing, and probably some of these ones

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Speaker 3: I'll end up coming back and play against the spread

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Speaker 3: as well. And you know we'll get to some of

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Speaker 3: these today. So the pick six that came out Tuesday

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Speaker 3: was at plus six thirty rams against the Jaguars in

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Speaker 3: London on Sunday morning, Patriots at the Titans. We mentioned

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Speaker 3: that game already, Chiefs and the Raiders, no shocker there,

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Speaker 3: Packers over the Cardinals, and then the doubleheader Monday night

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Speaker 3: apparently our last one maybe for a while. Lions over

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Speaker 3: the Box and Seahawks over the Texans. So those six

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Speaker 3: money lines together this week it is all favorites plus

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Speaker 3: six thirty. And then at the end of that article,

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Speaker 3: if you get a pick six, you get to kick

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Speaker 3: the extra point. So I'm giving myself an extra point.

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Speaker 3: I get one point to the end of the article,

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Speaker 3: just a chance to give out a future talk about

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Speaker 3: something on my mind. This week's extra point was Seattle

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Speaker 3: safety nick imman Wari be defensive Rookie of the Year

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Speaker 3: at sixty to one. Evan, you and I have talked

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Speaker 3: about Abdul Carter is the big favorite there. He's looked good,

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Speaker 3: but it only has like thirteen tackles and half a

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Speaker 3: sack so far. So he's a huge favorite, but hasn't

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Speaker 3: really run away with it statistically. The man Wirri really

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Speaker 3: played his first full game last week, looked awesome. He

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Speaker 3: looks like Mike McDonald's new Kyle Hamilton. Hamilton is the

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Speaker 3: star safety in the league number two PFF. The only

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Speaker 3: guy ahead of him is Nicky Manoir, So he was

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Speaker 3: sixty to one and we gave this out. He has

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Speaker 3: quickly moved up boards. He's now fifteen or twenty to

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Speaker 3: one and fourth favorite for the award at a lot

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Speaker 3: of books. There is still a thirty to one out there.

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Speaker 3: I think there's still some value there. But that article

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Speaker 3: should be coming now Tuesdays, maybe Wednesdays some weeks, just

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Speaker 3: early week picks.

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Speaker 1: And early parlay. We love our parlays, right, Hopefully.

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Speaker 3: Get some winners through there and maybe an extra point

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Speaker 3: along the way.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: At this point, I mean, how could you not I

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Speaker 2: mean the defensive Player of the Year awards, but I

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Speaker 2: mean a defensive Rookie of the Year award, especially in

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Speaker 2: this position, feels like it's up in the air and

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Speaker 2: kind of can go any direction. So week to week,

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Speaker 2: I feel like those odds are going to fluctuate. All right,

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Speaker 2: Let's get into your best bets here. This your bets bet.

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Speaker 2: I am really gonna try to be background noise because

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Speaker 2: you have way more than you usually do that, and honestly,

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Speaker 2: at this point in the season, you guys just want

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Speaker 2: the action. So let's get to the first bet here.

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Speaker 2: You're dealing with rams Jaguars, What are you doing?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll be honest. I spent a lot of time

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Speaker 3: on NBA this week getting all of our futures out

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Speaker 3: at the Buckets podcast. I was like, well, maybe I'll

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Speaker 3: have less picks this week. It turns out I have more.

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Speaker 3: Maybe I didn't have quite as much time to narrow

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Speaker 3: them down, so I'll probably go slightly lighter on these

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Speaker 3: by unit size, but just more bets and you know,

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Speaker 3: we all love the action. So Sunday morning in London,

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Speaker 3: I think probably the best London game of the year.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna take the Rams minus three. It's still a

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Speaker 3: minus one oh five there. I will have a full

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Speaker 3: game guide up on this one. A lot of time

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Speaker 3: talk about while it's the London Jaguars, right, I think

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Speaker 3: they're going to have like the home field advantage.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if I buy that.

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Speaker 3: We've got a new young coaching staff for Jacksonville. I

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Speaker 3: think this is a tough spot for them. This is

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Speaker 3: the youngest coaching staff in the league. They haven't had

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Speaker 3: a thing like this before. The Rams have done a

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Speaker 3: McVeigh has played overseas and McVay is very familiar with

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Speaker 3: Liam Cohen. That was his former assistant, so I think

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Speaker 3: there could be a little bit of an advantage there

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Speaker 3: as well. Normally, in these kind of neutral games, you

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Speaker 3: just want the better team. The Rams, I think are

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Speaker 3: the clearly better team. I have them sixth in my

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Speaker 3: power ratings, have Jacksonville still kind of around league average.

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Speaker 3: I know they're exciting right now, but Jacksonville is about

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Speaker 3: league average basically every phase of the game by Dvoa.

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Speaker 3: Rams are top five offense and defense right now. I

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Speaker 3: think that's pretty aggressive defensively, but I like how it

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Speaker 3: sets up here. We love that young defensive front, Jacksonville's

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Speaker 3: offensive line that looked really good early. Now they're playing

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Speaker 3: some better teams and we're seeing them Falter Trevor Lawrence

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Speaker 3: has been sacked ten times the last two games, so

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Speaker 3: I think this sets up well for the Rams. I

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Speaker 3: will say this where we're still seeing what happens with

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Speaker 3: Puka here right He did not practice again today as

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Speaker 3: we record, so second time. I don't think he's going

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Speaker 3: to play, especially overseas here. I think this is a

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Speaker 3: DeVante game either way. Jacksonville plays a lot of too

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Speaker 3: high safety. I think that's better for DeVante. Maybe Higby

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Speaker 3: as well. And look at some of the lines we've seen.

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Speaker 3: We played JSM last week. He was a huge eight

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Speaker 3: for one hundred and sixty two in a score against

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Speaker 3: Greg Newsom. In the new corner, Nico Collins has had

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Speaker 3: eight for one hundred and four in a score. Jamar

218
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Speaker 3: Chase fourteen for one to sixty five and a score.

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Speaker 3: Think about the style of what those receivers are. That's

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Speaker 3: not your Puka underneath style. That is DeVante. That's the

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Speaker 3: down the field making the big plays. And DeVante Adams

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Speaker 3: last year against Jacksonville had his best game since leaving

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Speaker 3: Green Bay. Nine catches, one ninety eight and two touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: So I want Adams props. I can't give them to

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Speaker 3: you because there's no lines yet because the Puka thing,

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Speaker 3: so I can't tell you we get a touchdown at

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Speaker 3: even odds, two touchdowns is plus six fifty, but we're

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Speaker 3: kind of paying for a discount there. He's usually around

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Speaker 3: one twenty five. We're kind of factoring in that Puka

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Speaker 3: is likely assumed out there. I think we know DeVante

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Speaker 3: scores touchdowns fourteen of his last twenty seven games, so

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Speaker 3: just over half twenty four career games with multiple touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: I kind of want to take just like the huge

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Speaker 3: receiving line too, right, we had Chase one sixty five

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Speaker 3: JSN one sixty two, Adams had the huge line, no

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Speaker 3: yards totals yet, So I like the Rams. I like Davante.

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Speaker 3: Here's my advice on the pick. I think he maybe

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Speaker 3: wait a little bit and see how this shakes out

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Speaker 3: with Puka. If Puoka is out, I think we might

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Speaker 3: get below the three and now you get Rams two

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Speaker 3: and a half and I'm gonna still like that there,

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Speaker 3: and you definitely play the DeVante props. If Pukah's in

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Speaker 3: it maybe moves past the three then. But I think

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Speaker 3: I'll like the pick better because we get both stars

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Speaker 3: and I'm still gonna play DeVante there, and we'll get

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Speaker 3: some better prices because pook will give a discount. So

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Speaker 3: a little convoluted to start us out, but you know

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Speaker 3: it's Sunday morning. Gotta be convoluted to start out in

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Speaker 3: the morning.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I feel like this one is a wait and

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Speaker 2: see on a few levels, just because of what markets

252
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Speaker 2: are available. I mean, the Rams offense has been extremely

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Speaker 2: iffy without Pooka and the games he's missed. But to me,

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Speaker 2: this is more the DeVante play and Whittingham's going to

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Speaker 2: see a lot of routes as well. So wait and see.

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Speaker 2: I mean DeVonta had a double theaid dot of any

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Speaker 2: other player last week with Hooka outed the lineup for

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Speaker 2: a lot of times. So if you assume he's going

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Speaker 2: to be downfield as well, especially in that game last

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Speaker 2: week where didn't even really need him all right, next

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Speaker 2: game here, Vikings Eagles. You like a spread in this one,

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Speaker 2: so you go and fill your Minnesota.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go to Minnesota. Man.

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Speaker 3: I never thought I get so much use of of

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Speaker 3: this Carson Wentz Jersey so early in the season. Here

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Speaker 3: it is both ways the Carson Wentz revenge game. Maybe

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Speaker 3: we don't know who's playing quarterback here yet, but it

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Speaker 3: looks like Wentz maybe will be the guy. With McCarthy's

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Speaker 3: still not fully practicing. Vikings is plus two and a

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Speaker 3: half at a couple of books. Certainly, I think this

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Speaker 3: is a close, tight game. You want every point you

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Speaker 3: can get, so I don't expect this to get to three. However,

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Speaker 3: this goes two and a half, I'll take it.

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Speaker 1: It's a hard pick for me as a Vikings fan.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of Philly PTSD.

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Speaker 3: This has not been a good matchup for the Vikings,

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Speaker 3: but clear home field advantage for this team, one of

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Speaker 3: the better ones in the league. And I don't know

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Speaker 3: that they should have any reason to be home underdogs here.

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Speaker 3: I think there's a lot of reason. I think Minnesota

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Speaker 3: is the better team right now and at home. I

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Speaker 3: think this could easily be in Minnesota favored and even

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Speaker 3: at the key number or longer.

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Speaker 1: So.

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Speaker 3: Eagles we've talked a lot about so far this season

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Speaker 3: on our Sunday Night recap. They're like the lead every week.

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Speaker 3: The offense has been stagnant, the defense has fallen off.

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Speaker 1: It's just a very average team.

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Speaker 3: There's a lot of mid about the Eagles right now,

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Speaker 3: every facet of the game, really, And there's a lot

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Speaker 3: of injuries too. Jalen Carter has missed two games already,

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Speaker 3: one because he's fat on a guy. But you know,

293
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Speaker 3: the injuries are there. Jordan Davis the other tackle, they're

294
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Speaker 3: both kind of banged up. I think they'll play, but

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Speaker 3: we don't know. The big one is quinnyon Mitchell. He's

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Speaker 3: limited this week.

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Speaker 1: He is the star.

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Speaker 3: Corner, and you want your star corner when Justin Jefferson

299
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Speaker 3: and Jordan Addison are over there, so I think that

300
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Speaker 3: could be a big loss if he's limited or out.

301
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Speaker 3: Vikings are coming off the bye, so I think they

302
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Speaker 3: get a lot healthier here. The offensive line maybe his

303
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Speaker 3: whole for the first time all season. Blake Cashman the linebacker,

304
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Speaker 3: He's the green dot. That's huge. This run defense hasn't

305
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Speaker 3: been great. He's the key to the run defense, and

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Speaker 3: frankly that would be a bigger deal, but Philadelphia hasn't

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Speaker 3: run that well this season anyway. I think the best

308
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Speaker 3: unit here is the Vikings pass defense. That's Brian Flores with,

309
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Speaker 3: by the way, two weeks to get ready for this

310
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Speaker 3: Vanilla Eagles offense, two weeks to scheme up blitzes and

311
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Speaker 3: have you own that's what he does, and those are

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Speaker 3: both things that Hurts has really struggled against in his career.

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Speaker 3: So I think this is a good spot for Minnesota.

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Speaker 3: Home trends back the team coming off the buy as

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Speaker 3: a home underdog, so that means Minnesota on the front

316
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Speaker 3: foot Philly off script. That's the thing you want with

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Speaker 3: the Eagles is for them to have to do the

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Speaker 3: thing that they don't want to do. I just think

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Speaker 3: it sets up well for the Vikings.

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Speaker 1: This scares me. I don't feel great as a fan.

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Speaker 3: As a better I see a lot of value here

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Speaker 3: Assaultaic Vikings plus two and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the bet most people make, and then

324
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Speaker 2: they're scared to make it and it's tough to click,

325
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Speaker 2: but you got to do it. In this situation, you're

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Speaker 2: losing the two a little bit, so shot for the number.

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Speaker 2: The two and a half coming down to tad. I

328
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Speaker 2: look this up. I thought it was interesting. Kevin O'Connor's

329
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Speaker 2: last seven games as a home underdog basically and during

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Speaker 2: a home game road team considered better. He scored twenty

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Speaker 2: plus in all seven. So Minnesota just figures it out.

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Speaker 2: You expect some points in this game. You expected them

333
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Speaker 2: to at least keep it close. All right, next game here,

334
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Speaker 2: Giants and Broncos. You're going spread again? Please tell me

335
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Speaker 2: you're going to Giants. Is it happening?

336
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Speaker 1: It's Giants season. Giants.

337
00:15:57,480 --> 00:15:59,840
Speaker 3: There is seven and a half out there. Grab this

338
00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:02,360
Speaker 3: and a half if you can. Otherwise I'll take the seven.

339
00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:02,840
Speaker 1: Lo.

340
00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:05,920
Speaker 3: We just bet a New York team against Denver last

341
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Speaker 3: week and it was ugly, but we didn't. We didn't

342
00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:11,040
Speaker 3: watch it if we're being honest some of us. But

343
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Speaker 3: we hit it either way. And I think in that game,

344
00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:16,320
Speaker 3: the big story is, Oh, Denver's defense amazing. The Jets

345
00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:19,880
Speaker 3: they're so terrible. Jets offense terrible, that's all true. Jets

346
00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:23,520
Speaker 3: offense was awful. Denver's offense wasn't really that much better.

347
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Speaker 3: They honestly deserve to lose that game, and I got

348
00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:28,280
Speaker 3: lucky to pull through at the end. That is not

349
00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:30,800
Speaker 3: a great statement. As bad as the Jets are playing

350
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Speaker 3: right now, Denver's offense has been I think even average

351
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Speaker 3: would be a compliment at this point. Sean Payton does

352
00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:40,800
Speaker 3: not seem to trust Bonnicks, and I think the Giants

353
00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:44,520
Speaker 3: run defense seems beatable, but Shane Bowen's system kind of

354
00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:47,840
Speaker 3: pushes teams toward the pass, so that's more Nicks, more passing.

355
00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:50,920
Speaker 3: They've only allowed one running back more than twelve carries,

356
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Speaker 3: so I don't really know how either team scores a

357
00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:56,120
Speaker 3: lot here. I'm not gonna make a big case for

358
00:16:56,160 --> 00:16:58,880
Speaker 3: you on Jackson Dart and Cam Scattabow against Denver. I

359
00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:01,760
Speaker 3: don't love that, but I looked at the total here.

360
00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:05,560
Speaker 3: Brian Dable road unders has been positive trends sixty one percent,

361
00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:09,040
Speaker 3: dable low total under sixty three percent.

362
00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:10,120
Speaker 1: If it's low.

363
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:12,560
Speaker 3: If it's a low total, it's like forty right now.

364
00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:15,280
Speaker 3: Seven to seven and a half is even more valuable

365
00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:18,919
Speaker 3: then Denver's four wins, but three are by one score.

366
00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:22,240
Speaker 3: So Denver can win this game and win ugly like

367
00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:25,720
Speaker 3: they did last week. And remember bo Nicks, what was

368
00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:27,720
Speaker 3: the invincible last year as a favorite?

369
00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:29,880
Speaker 1: Whatever? And no ats this year?

370
00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:33,879
Speaker 3: One in three? So why not just the under. The

371
00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:35,480
Speaker 3: one thing I haven't led with here, I kind of

372
00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:39,040
Speaker 3: buried the lead where I started on this game is

373
00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:43,440
Speaker 3: a huge schedule advantage spot. The Giants played Thursday night

374
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Speaker 3: last week. They got extra rest here. The Broncos, like

375
00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:50,320
Speaker 3: we just keep talking about, played Sunday in London, did

376
00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:52,879
Speaker 3: not take the buy a week and have that trend.

377
00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:56,080
Speaker 3: I love to look at. Teams coming back from London

378
00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:59,040
Speaker 3: without a buy a week in the fourth quarter have

379
00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:02,720
Speaker 3: tied or tray in fifteen of seventeen games since the

380
00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:04,160
Speaker 3: International Series started.

381
00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:06,360
Speaker 1: If the team, if the.

382
00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:09,480
Speaker 3: Giants are tied or leading in the fourth quarter, they

383
00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,880
Speaker 3: should cover a touchdown. We'll see with the Giants, I'm

384
00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:16,320
Speaker 3: not really trusting too much, but I'll take a seven

385
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:18,479
Speaker 3: and a half certainly if you get the hook, and

386
00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:20,720
Speaker 3: I think a little nibble at three to one on

387
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,480
Speaker 3: the money line, I honestly can't make a case for it.

388
00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:24,880
Speaker 3: But I couldn't have made a case for the Jets

389
00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:27,440
Speaker 3: last week either, and they are almost there. And if

390
00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:29,720
Speaker 3: the trend is right, if the Giants have a lead

391
00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:31,800
Speaker 3: in the fourth quarter, then you have to have a

392
00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:33,639
Speaker 3: piece of the three to one money line too.

393
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:35,639
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think the rest spots what you look at,

394
00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:38,640
Speaker 2: especially with the time with Dable and the Giants. I mean,

395
00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:41,840
Speaker 2: on any extended prep, Dable seven and four against the number.

396
00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:45,160
Speaker 2: He's five hundred ats or better in all three seasons

397
00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:47,720
Speaker 2: on ten plus, as he's five and two against the number,

398
00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:51,280
Speaker 2: you have to assume, even with the roster without neighbors,

399
00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:52,840
Speaker 2: this is and that he's gonna be able to scheme

400
00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:54,960
Speaker 2: something up to be able to keep them in this game.

401
00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:59,119
Speaker 2: But we shall see, all right next game NFC's Battle

402
00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:03,399
Speaker 2: Cowboys and Commanders. This total was as high as fifty five,

403
00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:06,359
Speaker 2: now down to fifty four and a half. See. The

404
00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:08,080
Speaker 2: thing that's interesting to me about this game is I

405
00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:10,119
Speaker 2: believe you tend to play this prop. You played this

406
00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:12,919
Speaker 2: last year. You play this a few times because it's

407
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:15,199
Speaker 2: like something in the series, right it is.

408
00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I think that this game we expect a shootout.

409
00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:19,520
Speaker 1: Right, you see the high.

410
00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:22,680
Speaker 3: Total, you see a line of like a minus two favorite,

411
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 3: and instantly you're like, oh, okay, I know how this goes.

412
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:27,159
Speaker 3: Last team with the quarterback or last team with the

413
00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:29,919
Speaker 3: ball wins the game thirty to twenty seven or something

414
00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:30,239
Speaker 3: like that.

415
00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:31,440
Speaker 1: We see those games.

416
00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:33,960
Speaker 3: I get creative with this bet because that is not

417
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,080
Speaker 3: what this particular rivalryp does.

418
00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:38,520
Speaker 1: So we'll get to that in a second.

419
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:41,719
Speaker 3: Obviously, both offenses are going to score some points here.

420
00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:44,560
Speaker 3: It seems like ceedee Lamb looks like he's probably back.

421
00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:48,320
Speaker 3: These are both top ten offenses. Dallas defense terrible, Like

422
00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:50,879
Speaker 3: I need to tell you that Washington's defense has not

423
00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:54,440
Speaker 3: super impressed me. They are kind of old, and Dallas

424
00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:55,520
Speaker 3: knows Dan Quinn.

425
00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:57,800
Speaker 1: Obviously, it's easy to.

426
00:19:57,760 --> 00:19:59,720
Speaker 3: See a path for either one of these teams a

427
00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:03,359
Speaker 3: score thirty forty points. Right, So naturally we're like, okay,

428
00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,080
Speaker 3: so both back and forth they'll be crazy. But in

429
00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:09,680
Speaker 3: this rivalry, one of the last thirteen games has been

430
00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:13,680
Speaker 3: closer than seven points. For whatever reason, it's a rivalry,

431
00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:16,680
Speaker 3: but we just get blowouts. The average margin of victory

432
00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 3: in those thirteen games nineteen point six points a game,

433
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:23,000
Speaker 3: So these are consistent blowouts, and a bunch of them

434
00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 3: we've watched because they're on Thanksgiving. This is the one

435
00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:27,919
Speaker 3: they feed to us every year, and we're doing the

436
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,919
Speaker 3: trip to fan nap by halftime because these are huge blowouts.

437
00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:35,359
Speaker 3: We've had in those thirteen games margin of fifteen, twenty,

438
00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:38,560
Speaker 3: twenty two, twenty five, twenty eight, thirty one, thirty five,

439
00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:42,320
Speaker 3: and forty two. Sixty two percent of those games by

440
00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,080
Speaker 3: fifteen or more points, so these are not close at all.

441
00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:48,119
Speaker 3: That has kind of been the case with these teams

442
00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:52,000
Speaker 3: outside of the rivalry too. Washington, we just watched lose

443
00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:55,760
Speaker 3: by one every other game this season seven points or

444
00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:59,119
Speaker 3: more in either direction. Last year, over half their games

445
00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:02,280
Speaker 3: that way too, So under Dan Quinn, sixty percent of

446
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,959
Speaker 3: Washington games have been not within under seven points, so

447
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:09,120
Speaker 3: seven points are higher. Dallas not quite as high, forty

448
00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:12,560
Speaker 3: three percent since it started last year, but nine of

449
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:16,040
Speaker 3: their ten such wins games like that have been by

450
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:19,359
Speaker 3: fifteen or more. We've seen huge blowouts in either direction

451
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 3: with Dallas. If the offense is hot on either team,

452
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 3: I think they could put up a big number and

453
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:28,080
Speaker 3: the other opponent just doesn't. Dallas get back that way.

454
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:32,399
Speaker 3: Dallas has had fifteen point margin or more in thirty

455
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:34,960
Speaker 3: nine percent of their games since the start of last season,

456
00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:38,560
Speaker 3: of Washington forty percent, so that's not so far from half.

457
00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:41,680
Speaker 3: So here's how we're doing this. It's complicated. Watch the app.

458
00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:45,840
Speaker 3: We're gonna bet either team to win by seven or

459
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,960
Speaker 3: more points. Here's how we do that. Not as a parlay,

460
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 3: because you can't parlay these. They're the opposite Washington alt

461
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 3: line minus six and a half at plus two ten

462
00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 3: and Dallas alt minus six and a half plus two seventy.

463
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:04,120
Speaker 3: Again not parlayed, that's literally not possible. We're gonna bet both.

464
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:06,840
Speaker 3: Take your units split in a half bet both. You

465
00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:10,119
Speaker 3: basically need to get a combined minus one forty six

466
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,200
Speaker 3: on either team to win by seven, and then we're

467
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,160
Speaker 3: gonna escalate it as well. So either team to win

468
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 3: by fourteen or more. So that's thirteen and a half

469
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:21,160
Speaker 3: either way. Washington it's five to one, Dallas at six

470
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 3: to one, and an either team by twenty or more,

471
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:27,159
Speaker 3: it's about eleven to one. Either direction Washington by twenty

472
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:29,880
Speaker 3: or Dallas by twenty. So we're gonna play that all

473
00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 3: the way and hope that the offense does show up

474
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:35,440
Speaker 3: but only for one of the teams and we get

475
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 3: the blowout and stick with history. And yeah, like you said,

476
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 3: this has just been a spot I like to play

477
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 3: in some of these rivalry games where I think the

478
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 3: rivalry trends are a little more indicative than we give

479
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 3: credit for.

480
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,240
Speaker 2: So on Washington's side of the ball, we still have

481
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,400
Speaker 2: a lot of question marks McLaurin, like, I think we're

482
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 2: still waiting to see what type of what wide receivers

483
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,400
Speaker 2: are going out there for Washington. But you talked about

484
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:58,440
Speaker 2: Dallas's defense, and I gotta say this, so fifteen touchdown passes,

485
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:02,399
Speaker 2: two interceptions and a seven two percent completion percentage is

486
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 2: what opposing quarterbacks are doing against Dallas this year, just

487
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 2: for reference, and I loved doing this. Quarterbacks through six

488
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:14,440
Speaker 2: games in history two have fifteen plus touchdowns, two picks

489
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 2: or less with that high of a completion percentage. It

490
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 2: was Peyton Manning in twenty thirteen and Tom Brady in

491
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,520
Speaker 2: two thousand and seven. They both won MVP. Both teams

492
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:24,879
Speaker 2: went to the Super Bowl. So that is the defense

493
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:28,400
Speaker 2: that the Cowboys are putting out there against random quarterbacks

494
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,679
Speaker 2: week to week. Insane. But again, I think we need

495
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 2: to sit back and see what happens with Washington's pass

496
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 2: catchers or if multiple are out, just play the backups

497
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 2: in fantasy and assume everything just stays the same. Let's

498
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 2: keep rolling here two more before we get to the

499
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 2: lightning round. So we're going to talk about Sunday Night Football.

500
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 2: Forty nine Ers and Falcons, both teams and interesting positions

501
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,880
Speaker 2: heading into this one. Falcons off a massive win. Forty

502
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:56,640
Speaker 2: nine Er is just trying to put a roster out there,

503
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 2: So what are you doing?

504
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the forty nine ers injuries are here.

505
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take the Falcons. It's two and a half.

506
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:04,680
Speaker 3: I will wait here if you can. I think there's

507
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 3: a chance we get to the three. I don't love

508
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 3: the spot for Atlanta. We just watched this team have

509
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:12,919
Speaker 3: a huge win against Buffalo. It's a short week. I

510
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:15,439
Speaker 3: don't love that. You rather have your team hungry. But

511
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 3: it's not like it was an exhausting win. They kind

512
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 3: of dominated at Buffalo, and I just think these are

513
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,119
Speaker 3: two teams kind of going in opposite directions right now.

514
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,360
Speaker 3: Atlanta had the weird Carolina shout out, but otherwise has

515
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 3: played quite well this season both Sunday or primetime games

516
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:34,320
Speaker 3: we've seen. The defense is really impressive. They are flying

517
00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:37,440
Speaker 3: all over the place. Divine Diablo has been awesome at linebacker.

518
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 3: They're getting a ton of pass rush on. And then

519
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 3: the Niners on the other hand, just every injury it's

520
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 3: Niners and Ravens just can't find enough room on injury report.

521
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,120
Speaker 3: We don't know who's playing quarterback yet. Both Mac and

522
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,520
Speaker 3: Purty are limited. We don't know who's playing receiver. Piersill hasn't

523
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 3: a practice yet, Juan Jennings is barely practicing. Maybe Kittle's back,

524
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:00,520
Speaker 3: but we don't know how much he'd play. Poony on

525
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 3: the offensive line might be out. Their top edge and

526
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:06,119
Speaker 3: top cornerback might be out or at least limited. Oh

527
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,919
Speaker 3: and by the way, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are

528
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 3: already out for the season. This defense already is kind

529
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,360
Speaker 3: of fringe bottom ten by the metrics, and I think

530
00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:17,960
Speaker 3: they're worse than that because that's not even factoring in

531
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 3: both on Warner being out and in this particular matchup,

532
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:22,639
Speaker 3: the Niners love.

533
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 1: To play light boxes.

534
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 3: They play like all but a few snaps on the season,

535
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 3: light boxes by far most in the league. The Falcons

536
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:33,600
Speaker 3: destroy light boxes their fourth and EPA per play, And

537
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:35,919
Speaker 3: now kind of the whole point of doing that is,

538
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 3: it's fine, Fred will just clean up behind us, He'll

539
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:41,120
Speaker 3: he'll make all the time. Oh not anymore, he's not there.

540
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 3: And by the way, the Niners are getting almost no

541
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 3: pressure on the opposing quarterback. Atlanta hasn't had great pressure

542
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 3: or very allowed pressure anyway, so I think Pennix can

543
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 3: pick them apart with no Bosa coming after him. On

544
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 3: the flip side, forty nine Ers have not allowed much

545
00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 3: pressure either, but Atlanta has been great pressure in the quarterback,

546
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 3: and the Niners, when they do allow it, have been

547
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,400
Speaker 3: twenty seventh on EPA per play. So if they can

548
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 3: get some pressure, if they're blitzing, gets home, especially against

549
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 3: quarterbacks that maybe are a little less mobile because they're

550
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 3: playing hurt right now, whichever one is out there, I

551
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 3: think that Falcons defense can look at again still somehow

552
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 3: number one in DVOA and I kind of made fun

553
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:21,320
Speaker 3: of it last podcast, but then they went out and

554
00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 3: looked like it on Monday night. They are weaker against

555
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 3: the run. Theananers aren't running the ball at all this

556
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:29,679
Speaker 3: year though. The McCaffrey's getting volume, but it's not been pretty.

557
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 3: So I like the Falcons here two and a half.

558
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 3: I think it could get to three if we get

559
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 3: like mac Jones is in or something like that. I'll

560
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 3: still like Atlanta and I'd rather wait and get the

561
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 3: key number. So I don't mind the two and a half.

562
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 3: I'll definitely play that if it's there, but I think

563
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 3: you can wait and see if we get the key number.

564
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're gonna need some real positive forty nine ers

565
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 2: news to start moving this line in the other direction.

566
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:53,920
Speaker 2: I mean, when you think about six and a half

567
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,640
Speaker 2: was the way you look ahead, when you assumed everyone

568
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 2: was going to be healthy. Then it's four on Sunday,

569
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 2: now down to two in some spots. I'm just worried, Like,

570
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:04,360
Speaker 2: as soon as you hear this, I would bet Atlantic

571
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 2: because I'm just worried that bad news will come out

572
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 2: for San Francisco and I'll kind of keep going the

573
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,879
Speaker 2: other direction. But we will see. Obviously, you mentioned it

574
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:15,439
Speaker 2: first game we've seen without Bosa and Warner since Warner

575
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:17,680
Speaker 2: played every game but one, and Bosa played in that one,

576
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:20,119
Speaker 2: so we haven't really seen this San Francisco side of

577
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 2: the defense. And for what it's worth, San Francisco seven

578
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:27,240
Speaker 2: and fourteen against spread at home last three seasons, pretty

579
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 2: terrible in that area. All right, one more game here.

580
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 2: It is Monday night football. You're picking one of the

581
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 2: two in this slot, and you'll like Seattle and Houston.

582
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 2: What are you doing there?

583
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:39,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna take Seahawks. I might get the Seahawks

584
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 3: minus three. And normally we would wait and just talk

585
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 3: about this on Sunday night, which we will. We'll talk

586
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:46,880
Speaker 3: about it again. Already played the other Monday night game

587
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:49,400
Speaker 3: on the hot read. I want Seahawks, and I want

588
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 3: it today because I almost took this on the hot

589
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 3: Red Seattle and I thought we might get a two

590
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 3: and a half. We're not getting a two and a half.

591
00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:58,679
Speaker 3: And I worry if we wait till Sunday, you might

592
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 3: not get the three either. We're already in some three

593
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 3: and a halfs. That's such a key number. Now, I

594
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,680
Speaker 3: want Seahawks minus three. So just quickly on the case

595
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,080
Speaker 3: and we'll talk more about it Sunday. I'm gonna keep

596
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:10,879
Speaker 3: Ryan the Seahawks. We've been hitting them week after a week,

597
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 3: Top four offense, defense, and special teams by DVA, number

598
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 3: one overall, second best four and two DVA team ever

599
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 3: in their system.

600
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 1: Houston.

601
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,119
Speaker 3: I do like we've been on Houston this season. I

602
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 3: think Pathagoia numbers look pretty good for them. Their DVOA

603
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 3: is up. They blew out Baltimore, they had to buy

604
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,680
Speaker 3: a week. It looks like a good spot for them.

605
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 3: Rested and finally maybe Nick Keyley in the offense, did

606
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 3: they find some answers.

607
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:38,520
Speaker 1: Well, that's still the week link without a doubt.

608
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 3: Whatever answers they found, the Texans offense is the week

609
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 3: link in this matchup. Seattle has been elite, pressuring, struggling

610
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 3: offensive line for the Texans. Alan Houston has any real

611
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 3: shot to run, and Houston is up to twenty fifth

612
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 3: in success right after the Baltimore game. They were last

613
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 3: basically before that. So I think it sets up all

614
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 3: for Seattle. I think they'll be to pass deep Houston.

615
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 3: That's one to fly in there. Otherwise, great defense twenty

616
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 3: first EPA per play against deep balls, and Seattle's been

617
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 3: untouchable one point four to four EPA per play is

618
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 3: just like off the charts, number one, Sam Donald Jason

619
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 3: just killing down the field. So I like Seattle here

620
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 3: minus three again. We'll talk more on Sunday night about it,

621
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 3: but I don't think that minus three is gonna last.

622
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 1: And tell them.

623
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 2: Something needs to change on Seattle's side of the ball.

624
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 2: At home, the numbers are just absolutely insane, So I

625
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 2: at this point this is the time to change it around.

626
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:33,720
Speaker 2: But just so we're clear. On the road, Seattle ten

627
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:35,680
Speaker 2: and one straight up seven to three and one ACS

628
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 2: under McDonald at home four and eight straight up, three

629
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 2: and nine against the spread. To me, this was the

630
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 2: number that blew me away because I wanted to look

631
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 2: up how Seattle has done at home when they're considered good.

632
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 2: Seattle five and twelve straight up at home since twenty

633
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 2: twenty one. When they are above five hundred straight up

634
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 2: on the season, they're good and they're supposed to win.

635
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 2: And at home five and twelve just terrible. And I

636
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 2: don't think it's the team we're looking at. So it

637
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 2: feels just odd to me, and this might be the

638
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 2: time to turn it around.

639
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 1: Conda.

640
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 3: See then lightning round.

641
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 2: All right. When I say lightning round, I mean lightning

642
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 2: round because we have like seven more props in this section,

643
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 2: so we are going to try to get through this quickly.

644
00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 2: But take out your pens and pencils, take out your notepad,

645
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 2: however you'd like to do it. We're going to start

646
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 2: with Chicago and New Orleans. You're looking at some of

647
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 2: the pass catchers in past game for Chicago. What are

648
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 2: you doing there?

649
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, we've played a Rome with Dunesday a couple of times.

650
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 3: I just like Rome to get a touchdown this week.

651
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 3: This looks like an ugly weather sort of game. A

652
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 3: lot of weather impact this weekend, so I'll be sure

653
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:41,000
Speaker 3: to keep an eye on that. Like twenty mili hour

654
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:44,000
Speaker 3: wins some drizzle. My number is actually like the Bears here,

655
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:46,720
Speaker 3: So I looked at them, but in bad weather and

656
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 3: with the line kind of closer to a touchdown, I

657
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 3: don't know if I need it.

658
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 1: Chicago, I do have my eye on. We saw them

659
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 1: Monday and night.

660
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 3: I kind of wonder out of the bye week did

661
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 3: they fix their run game rushing EPA per game first

662
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 3: four weeks twenty sixth thirty seconds, sixteenth and twenty second,

663
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 3: then fifth last week against what was pretty good run

664
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 3: defense previously in Washington run game is key. All was

665
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 3: with Ben Johnson, so that's a huge swing. But Andre

666
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 3: Swift is injured now as we're recording this on Thursday afternoon,

667
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 3: so we'll see and Bears run d was much better.

668
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 1: To you.

669
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:21,840
Speaker 3: I'm not quite back to Bears Island. It's a tough schedule,

670
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 3: but they have my attention. But I am gonna play

671
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 3: Bears with Roma Dunzey this week. We played against the

672
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:31,240
Speaker 3: Saints defense last week. Two passing touchdowns right, and we

673
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 3: tried for receiver Prop Diggs had the long pass taken away.

674
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,960
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go for touchdowns this week. The trend we

675
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:41,479
Speaker 3: said last week every quarterback still this season had at

676
00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 3: least two passing touchdowns against the Saints. So I looked

677
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 3: at it for Kayla, But if Caleb's going to get

678
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,719
Speaker 3: the touchdowns, I think it's a doneesay. He has a

679
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 3: touchdown every game this season except last week, when, by

680
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 3: the way, he had a touchdown on this amazing adjustment

681
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 3: catch that they took away on a goofy offensive line

682
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:01,520
Speaker 3: penalty that nobody thought was a penalty. Otherwise, one every

683
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 3: week opposing receivers a wide receiver. One against the Saints

684
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:08,480
Speaker 3: four of six games have a touchdown. Also, we're still

685
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 3: getting plus money one twenty five for Awosday touchdown.

686
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 1: Two touchdowns plus six fifty just kind of obligatory sprinkle.

687
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 3: If I'm playing one, I'm going to touch the two

688
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 3: touchdowns the Dunes they had one of those already. Kaishaon

689
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 3: Boody had two touchdowns last week on the Saints, so

690
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 3: we could get a couple. And then there is one

691
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 3: book out there that has a special that fits our trend.

692
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 3: Caleb two passing touchdowns in a Bears win at plus

693
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 3: two forty, all right, can't hurt there. We know the

694
00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 3: two touchdown trend. I kind of like the Bears anyway,

695
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 3: we get that way, don't have to worry about that

696
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 3: the higher line, So I'll probably touch that one as well.

697
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 3: But the main play Roma Dunzay went in Rome plus

698
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 3: one twenty five for a touchdown.

699
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 2: We tend to like. I feel like Chicago's in the

700
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:54,200
Speaker 2: same boat as Atlanta. Week to week. You play well,

701
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 2: but you want to play well after a win. That's

702
00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 2: how we see things are progressing when you don't come

703
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 2: back to the mean week after week. Atlanta off a

704
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 2: big win, Chicago off the big win. I need to

705
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 2: see a win against the Saints this week to really

706
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 2: start believing in what you're doing. Saints pass defense twenty

707
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 2: sixth then drop back success or a twenty eighth dropback EPA,

708
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,360
Speaker 2: And to me, it's the rush defense that's played well

709
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 2: on New Orleans aside the past defense that's weak or

710
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 2: so this really has to be the opportunity. I'll give

711
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 2: you one more of nine teams to allow eleven plus

712
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 2: pass touchdowns this year, New Orleans has averaged up. The

713
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 2: target on defense of eight is second highest just to Detroit.

714
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 2: So when you're talking about passing downfield as well, this

715
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 2: should be an opportunity for Chicago. All Right, you are

716
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 2: looking to New England and Tennessee here, what are you

717
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 2: looking at?

718
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 1: Yeah?

719
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 3: Another touchdown prop. I'm gonna go with Remondre Stevenson plus

720
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 3: one twenty for a touchdown. We talked about this game

721
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 3: at the top right. This is the Rabel Bull Rabel

722
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 3: revenge spot. Brian Callahan is out. Do we get the

723
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 3: dead cap bounce with Tennessee.

724
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 1: I don't know. Mike McCoy sucks. I don't know.

725
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 3: Mike McCoy might be a dead cat already that they

726
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 3: hired to coach the teams.

727
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 1: I don't know about that.

728
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 3: I think seven is pretty aggressive, certainly, And we mentioned

729
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 3: the trend that favors at least Tennessee ats here. I

730
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:13,359
Speaker 3: don't want to play aside. I'm just going to play

731
00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 3: another trend we hit last week, Tennessee allowing running back touchdowns.

732
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 3: They're now allowed ten on the season, multiple tds to

733
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:23,879
Speaker 3: running backs in half of those games, and at least

734
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 3: one to every lead running back.

735
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:27,200
Speaker 1: Of the season.

736
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:29,920
Speaker 3: So the question is, who's the lead running back in

737
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 3: New England? Antonio Gibson ain't it He's on IR now,

738
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:36,320
Speaker 3: So is it Stevenson or is it the rookie Travian Henderson.

739
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 3: But I don't know who's number one, but I certainly

740
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:41,840
Speaker 3: know who gets the red zone carries Ramandre fifteen so

741
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:45,879
Speaker 3: far this season, three for Henderson carries inside the ten

742
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:50,800
Speaker 3: eight to one, including both of Stevenson's touchdowns. Last season,

743
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:54,360
Speaker 3: similar seventeen carries for Stevenson inside the ten, five of

744
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:57,279
Speaker 3: the seven touchdowns on the season. This has always been

745
00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:59,799
Speaker 3: how McDaniel's offensive scored. They run the ball in when

746
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 3: they're close, so plus one twenty four touchdown and again

747
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 3: as Alas touch the two touchdowns plus four point fifty

748
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 3: Ramondre Stevenson.

749
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:10,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, you nail the biggest points to me, No, Gibson

750
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 2: and Henderson is not the guy not for that. At

751
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 2: least Henderson might be in there for other opportunities and

752
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:19,359
Speaker 2: other things for Vrabel, he's not the guy for that.

753
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:22,800
Speaker 2: So if they're going to do it, it's gonna be Remandre.

754
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 2: So I agree there, All right, let's keep going here.

755
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:29,440
Speaker 2: So you like the vikings against the Eagles, so obviously

756
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:31,360
Speaker 2: you're going to be taking one of their pass catches

757
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:33,720
Speaker 2: to do something fun. So what's the best.

758
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's a good spot for Justin Jefferson.

759
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 3: Not that he really needs a good spot. He's as

760
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:40,640
Speaker 3: good as anybody. But at injury angle, I think here

761
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:42,959
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take the over seventy five and a half

762
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:45,320
Speaker 3: receiving yards. That line's only up with a few books

763
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 3: now as we're still kind of waiting on injuries. But

764
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 3: two things here we talked about Quinnon Mitchell. If he's

765
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:53,839
Speaker 3: limited or out, that is a great spot for Minnesota.

766
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:56,799
Speaker 3: Jefferson can move all over the field and have a

767
00:35:56,800 --> 00:36:00,440
Speaker 3: big game, and I think favorable for this play, it

768
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 3: looks like Carson Wentz starts again, not JJ McCarthy. So

769
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 3: here's the numbers against the Eagles this season wide receiver

770
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:10,839
Speaker 3: one Okay Ceedee Lamb seven for one hundred and ten,

771
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:15,360
Speaker 3: Khukanakua eleven for one twelve, Agbuca over one hundred, Sutton

772
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 3: eight for ninety nine, even Wandil Robinson six for eighty

773
00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 3: four with Neighbors out last week. Guys are producing on

774
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 3: the Eagles, and then Jefferson with McCarthy two games, three

775
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:29,760
Speaker 3: and a half catches a game for just over sixty yards,

776
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 3: with Wentz seven point three catches one hundred and eight

777
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:36,240
Speaker 3: yards a game, all three games at least seventy five yards.

778
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:38,560
Speaker 3: And that's the line we're getting here. So it's a

779
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:40,799
Speaker 3: bit of a gamble. I won't like it as much

780
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 3: if McCarthy is playing, I will admit it. I won't

781
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:45,919
Speaker 3: like it as much if Quinnon is playing. I think

782
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 3: that's the direction this is going with quinnyon limited her

783
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 3: out and Wentz in, And even if it's not, it's

784
00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 3: still justin Jefferson. We can take our chances here over

785
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:57,239
Speaker 3: seventy five and a half receiving yards and I won't

786
00:36:57,280 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 3: go too hard on the escalator, but one hundred yards at.

787
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:01,240
Speaker 1: Plus two ten and will stop there.

788
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:05,720
Speaker 2: Yes. Since week three when Wentz started JJ twenty four

789
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 2: first read targets. Next most will be twelve with Hockinson,

790
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 2: so getting double there. The looks and to me the

791
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 2: stat that you'd love the most forty four percent of

792
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 2: the team airy ards to Justin Jefferson since week three,

793
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:22,600
Speaker 2: So Wentz looking that way and looking downfield, which should

794
00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 2: help your yardage. All right, two more props here this guy.

795
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:29,319
Speaker 2: I'll give you a stat and you can guess who

796
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 2: it is. Second most carries since week three behind just

797
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 2: Ashton genty. Who are you taking?

798
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:38,160
Speaker 3: I like another rookie and not Gent. I'm gonna go

799
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:41,480
Speaker 3: quin Shawn Judkins, Brown's running back Danny one.

800
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:43,320
Speaker 1: I wasn't even ready to start.

801
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:45,200
Speaker 3: The season, So that's why it's not a full season

802
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:48,480
Speaker 3: stat playing the Dolphins, which is key here, and the

803
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 3: other key is I talked about weather. This looks like

804
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:54,720
Speaker 3: the weatheriest game of the weekend right now. Over twenty

805
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:58,479
Speaker 3: five mile hour wins summer rain. Obviously you're thinking under

806
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:01,279
Speaker 3: With the Browns game, totals dropped from forty one and

807
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 3: a half to thirty seven and a half already, So

808
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:06,240
Speaker 3: I think that that is Browns, but also very much weather.

809
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:09,520
Speaker 3: And if the game is that ugly and that much weather,

810
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:12,720
Speaker 3: now it's the run game, and that is advantage Browns.

811
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 3: They're the number one run defense, but particularly Miami is

812
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:19,920
Speaker 3: dead last in DVA defense. They're thirty first on success rate,

813
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 3: they're twenty ninth against the run. The Browns have a

814
00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 3: top ten EPA per rush. So look at Miami's defense.

815
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:29,400
Speaker 3: Their run defense just got cooked the last two weeks.

816
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 3: By let me just check these names here, Camani Vadal

817
00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 3: and Rico Dowdle is cooking this defense. Eighteen one hundred

818
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 3: and twenty four for Vidal Dowtle two hundred and six yards.

819
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 3: That's the last two games. Add in Breist Hall and

820
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 3: James Cook. Before that four week average against the Dolphins

821
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:49,240
Speaker 3: by the lead running back eighteen and a half carries

822
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 3: one hundred and thirty yards. Miamis allowed over eight hundred

823
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:55,319
Speaker 3: running back rushing yards, number one in the league. Only

824
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:57,799
Speaker 3: seven other teams even have allowed six hundred. They're over

825
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 3: eight hundred right now. And you mentioned with Johns. What's

826
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 3: interesting is he evenna get many runs last week he

827
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:06,760
Speaker 3: only was down to forty percent snaps. They were trailing

828
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 3: all week against Pittsburgh. He's not the guy. If they're trailing,

829
00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:11,920
Speaker 3: then they put Ford out there, the veteran. He had

830
00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:15,440
Speaker 3: five catches. He you know, is the guy for pass blocking.

831
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 3: All right, Well, we think this is a good spot

832
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:21,439
Speaker 3: for Browns, so that's better for Judkins. The previous three

833
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:24,920
Speaker 3: games over twenty carries a game for ninety five yards

834
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 3: eighty two plus all three games two touchdowns over half

835
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 3: the snaps, so over seventy eight and a half yards

836
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 3: rushing for Judkins. And then I kind of skip up

837
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:39,680
Speaker 3: the ladder and hope that the escalator just really hits big.

838
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go one twenty at plus three fifty and

839
00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:45,280
Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty yards at nine to one.

840
00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:46,359
Speaker 1: Just in case he explodes.

841
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:48,440
Speaker 3: I think this could be also a guy that you

842
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 3: take as like leading rusher on Sunday once we get

843
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:53,400
Speaker 3: some of those props up if you want to go

844
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 3: for a really high one. If this line does get

845
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 3: up there and you want to pivot over seventeen and

846
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:01,560
Speaker 3: a half longest ride could be another play, or you

847
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:04,440
Speaker 3: maybe just add to it. Last five running back one

848
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 3: against Miami all have a run of over twenty yards

849
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:09,520
Speaker 3: in the game. So we've heard of Ben, but don't

850
00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:12,360
Speaker 3: break defense. This is just a broken defense. So you

851
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:14,360
Speaker 3: want to play an your running back against him right now?

852
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:17,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, Cleveland being a three point favorite kind of just

853
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:20,360
Speaker 2: tells you the story here what you'd expect out of

854
00:40:20,400 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 2: him in the backfield. And I was going to say

855
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:24,480
Speaker 2: the best thing you could say was what running backs

856
00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 2: have done against Miami because it's disgraceful and this guy

857
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 2: getting this many carries just feels like it's going to

858
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:32,279
Speaker 2: add up by the time we get to the fourth

859
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:35,399
Speaker 2: quarter and the longest rush one feels like the great

860
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:36,919
Speaker 2: bet to me, it's got to come at some point

861
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:40,719
Speaker 2: with that many touches. All right, last bet here we

862
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:43,520
Speaker 2: are looking to Monday night football as well. In the

863
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:47,279
Speaker 2: doubleheader this game, I mean total of fifty two and

864
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 2: a half. Some people would say be high or all healthier,

865
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 2: maybe close to fifty four to fifty five. But what

866
00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:52,760
Speaker 2: are you doing with Detroit Tampa.

867
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:55,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, we talked about this a little bit on Sunday

868
00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 3: night on the recap. I think it was a great,

869
00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:00,360
Speaker 3: great spot for Amenara Saint Brown and so good. I

870
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:02,200
Speaker 3: don't want to wait till Sunday night. We'll talk about

871
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:04,160
Speaker 3: it again then, but I think these lines are going

872
00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:05,759
Speaker 3: to be gone by then, so I want to get

873
00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:09,799
Speaker 3: it out now. Tampa Bay injuries everywhere, Bucky Irving all

874
00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:13,239
Speaker 3: three receivers, but importantly Zion McCollum, and the secondary is

875
00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:16,600
Speaker 3: still impacted by injuries as well. The Bucks have allowed

876
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 3: top ten most receiver yards this season by zero one,

877
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:23,239
Speaker 3: averaging ten point seven targets a game against them. All

878
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 3: six have had nine targets or more. That includes eight

879
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:30,920
Speaker 3: eight and ten reception games two Rake London, Garrett Wilson

880
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 3: JSN last two games, they've allowed one hundred and thirty

881
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 3: two and one hundred and forty two yards to the

882
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:38,560
Speaker 3: lead receiver. That secondary is hurting right now. And we

883
00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:41,120
Speaker 3: talked about this with the hot read. I'm on Lions again.

884
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:44,000
Speaker 3: We'll get back to it Sunday. These teams have played

885
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:47,359
Speaker 3: three times the last two years. The Lions are dominating.

886
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:51,040
Speaker 3: Jared Goff and this offense dominate against Todd Bowles. The

887
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:53,759
Speaker 3: Lions one two of the three. They badly outplayed the

888
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 3: box doubled them up and yardage of the other game,

889
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 3: and am and Ra was a big part of it.

890
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 3: Here's his Lions from those three twelve catches one twenty four,

891
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:06,440
Speaker 3: eight for seventy seven, eleven for one to nineteen, averaging

892
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 3: more than ten catches a game over one hundred yards.

893
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:12,560
Speaker 3: He is a killer to this defense because the Bucks

894
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:15,960
Speaker 3: middle of the field defense number twenty six EPA per play.

895
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:18,400
Speaker 3: The Lions live in the middle of the field, that

896
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:21,399
Speaker 3: is where they attack more than anyone. Box linebackers are

897
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 3: not good enough for this matchup, and Tampa ranks twenty

898
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 3: ninth in EPA on short passes. Guess who's number one.

899
00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:30,279
Speaker 3: It's Detroit. So that's why I like the.

900
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 1: Lions, and Almana is why I like the Lions.

901
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:34,759
Speaker 2: So from the.

902
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 3: Folks that brought you the Puka meg Escalator, it's the

903
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 3: aman Ra Mega Escalator, and I want receptions here more

904
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:43,040
Speaker 3: than anything. But we got a bunch of steps along

905
00:42:43,080 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 3: the way. Here's where we're going. So we talked about

906
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:48,719
Speaker 3: the Bucks allowing almost eleven targets a game to wide

907
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 3: receiver one. Amana eighty six percent catchwrate this season. That's

908
00:42:53,160 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 3: a career high for him. If he gets nine targets,

909
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:58,240
Speaker 3: which every wide receiver one has against Tampa.

910
00:42:58,560 --> 00:42:59,960
Speaker 1: That's already a floor of eight cans.

911
00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:03,759
Speaker 3: Catches he's had this season seven, seven, eight, nine, and

912
00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:06,800
Speaker 3: nine in five of the six games. So start the

913
00:43:06,920 --> 00:43:09,920
Speaker 3: escalator with the overrun receptions. It's six and a half.

914
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:13,360
Speaker 3: Give me the over he's hit that five of six games.

915
00:43:13,680 --> 00:43:15,919
Speaker 3: Then I look for eight. That's the next step up.

916
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 3: But since the start of twenty twenty two, the Ben

917
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:24,120
Speaker 3: Johnson era basically in Detroit, when Saint Brown has eight catches,

918
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:27,160
Speaker 3: he also has one hundred yards fifteen of the twenty.

919
00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:29,520
Speaker 3: So for the next one, we're going to go eight

920
00:43:29,560 --> 00:43:33,440
Speaker 3: catches and hundred yards plus two ninety two. At DraftKings

921
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 3: our sponsor nine catches plus two twenty ten catches similar trend.

922
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:42,840
Speaker 3: He's had ten catches and at least one nineteen five times.

923
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:45,439
Speaker 3: So how about ten for one twenty at plus seven

924
00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:48,319
Speaker 3: to fifty, and you want to keep going, these will

925
00:43:48,360 --> 00:43:51,120
Speaker 3: be in the app Ten catches is plus three eighty

926
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:54,880
Speaker 3: eleven six thirty twelve catches, about ten to one fourteen

927
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 3: at thirty to one.

928
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:58,080
Speaker 1: We'll touch them all on the way up. And I

929
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 1: got a couple more for you.

930
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:03,400
Speaker 3: Jared Goff has had big games in Lea's big games

931
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:06,239
Speaker 3: against the Bucks three hundred and sixteen yards a game

932
00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:09,840
Speaker 3: passing these three, and that makes sense. Tampa's run defense

933
00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 3: is really good and Detroit is very run heavy but

934
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:15,840
Speaker 3: has adjusted and gone pass heavy in these games. So

935
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:20,200
Speaker 3: Amanah eight for one hundred we talked about add in

936
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 3: golf for three hundred yards. That's a seven to one

937
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 3: at DraftKings. And if you want to add on top

938
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:29,239
Speaker 3: of all that a Lions cover sixteen to one.

939
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:30,920
Speaker 1: That to me is the script.

940
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 3: A big golf game, a big Amana game, and the

941
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:36,480
Speaker 3: Lions win and one last step all the way to

942
00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 3: the top. Remember how we bet Puka. We hit our

943
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:43,359
Speaker 3: escalator all the way, but we didn't bet offensive player

944
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:46,799
Speaker 3: of the year. Not this time, Amana thirty five to one.

945
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:51,000
Speaker 3: Offensive Player of the Year. Pooka's hurt. Jonathan Taylor has

946
00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:53,720
Speaker 3: a lot of injury history. I don't see a clear,

947
00:44:53,840 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 3: clear front runner there. Amen already has six touchdowns to

948
00:44:57,520 --> 00:44:59,800
Speaker 3: lead all receivers. I think he has a shot to

949
00:45:00,239 --> 00:45:03,560
Speaker 3: the receiving touchdown record among receivers. I think he has

950
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:06,520
Speaker 3: a shot at the receptions record. I think this game

951
00:45:07,040 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 3: on a Monday night could propel him into that race.

952
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 3: And so I want a piece of that as well. Amen,

953
00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:13,600
Speaker 3: ra all the way to the sun.

954
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:14,239
Speaker 1: Let's go.

955
00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 2: I was gonna say absolutely no notes, but I did

956
00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:20,759
Speaker 2: have one note. I think on the longest bet here,

957
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:23,399
Speaker 2: the sixteen to one, I might have to just put

958
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:25,200
Speaker 2: a few bucks on the other side, with like Bucks

959
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:27,359
Speaker 2: money line or something like that. I just don't want

960
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 2: to be sitting here, and that ticket could be nice

961
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:32,919
Speaker 2: with like a large a monro game, a good golf game,

962
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:35,600
Speaker 2: and then the Bucks to pull out some shenanigans, which

963
00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 2: they continue to do. But you're right on all levels here.

964
00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:42,640
Speaker 2: I'll say one thing. On Tampa Bay's pass defense allowed

965
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:46,520
Speaker 2: twenty explosive plays twenty plus yards on reception six months

966
00:45:46,560 --> 00:45:49,080
Speaker 2: this year, you're gonna say, okay, this year. They were

967
00:45:49,160 --> 00:45:52,239
Speaker 2: eighth in that category last year, so they continue to

968
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:55,920
Speaker 2: really allow in that category. The big play Amurad is

969
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:57,839
Speaker 2: gonna get a ton of looks. He's averaging almost nine

970
00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:01,360
Speaker 2: targets per game in primetime since last year, so the

971
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 2: looks will be there, and the explosive play seems like

972
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:06,759
Speaker 2: it's vulnerable on that side, so it feels like the

973
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:09,400
Speaker 2: right avenue. All right, last one here, we have a

974
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:10,719
Speaker 2: look ahead to week eight.

975
00:46:12,560 --> 00:46:14,280
Speaker 1: Let's look ahead. Just give me a shot.

976
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:15,600
Speaker 2: How about next week?

977
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:17,840
Speaker 1: Back out man, sat.

978
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:24,399
Speaker 2: My mind set. Last week you were on Green Bay

979
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:27,040
Speaker 2: minus four and a half against the Cardinals. Now up

980
00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:29,360
Speaker 2: to six and a half, and I, honestly at this

981
00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:32,799
Speaker 2: point might see some sevens before the weekend. What are

982
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:33,480
Speaker 2: you doing this week?

983
00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:35,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're gonna go with the first game on the

984
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:39,640
Speaker 3: schedule for next week Thursday night, Minnesota at the Chargers.

985
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:42,399
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Vikings. There is a plus three

986
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:43,319
Speaker 1: and a half out there.

987
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:46,480
Speaker 3: Normally I'm picking the favorites on the look ahead and

988
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 3: the hot read because normally the favorites is who the

989
00:46:48,600 --> 00:46:51,000
Speaker 3: line gets longer on. This is of course about the

990
00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:53,279
Speaker 3: key number. I want it on the right side of

991
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:57,239
Speaker 3: the three. So what happens this weekend? Well, both teams

992
00:46:57,320 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 3: kind of coin flippy games, but we talked about the Vikings.

993
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:02,719
Speaker 3: Like the Vikings in that spot, they're getting healthier. They

994
00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:05,120
Speaker 3: would certainly get a bump if they do beat the Eagles,

995
00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:08,279
Speaker 3: the Chargers and the Colts. That's a really interesting game

996
00:47:08,360 --> 00:47:11,640
Speaker 3: to me. Injuries everywhere, and the Chargers especially a lot

997
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:14,240
Speaker 3: of injuries. I think it could be a big Jonathan

998
00:47:14,280 --> 00:47:17,600
Speaker 3: Taylor game. The Chargers have been fading. They're nearly on

999
00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:20,160
Speaker 3: a three game losing streak, so if they are ugly again,

1000
00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:21,560
Speaker 3: the Vikings get a win.

1001
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:23,440
Speaker 1: There's no way we get the right side of the

1002
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:24,919
Speaker 1: key number at the three and a half.

1003
00:47:25,040 --> 00:47:28,919
Speaker 3: Here, Vikings pass defense, I think is the best unit

1004
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:32,000
Speaker 3: on the field. Chargers can't run top two running backs

1005
00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:35,000
Speaker 3: are out, so it's gotta be Herbert and Quinn. Johnston

1006
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 3: is hurt right now, and the Vikings pass defense against

1007
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:40,920
Speaker 3: a bad line and lacking receivers and gets a good

1008
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:43,959
Speaker 3: spot not great home field for the Chargers, of course,

1009
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:46,439
Speaker 3: as we know, so I make this closer to a pick,

1010
00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:48,880
Speaker 3: and then getting the key is really important that the

1011
00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:52,640
Speaker 3: three Chargers already this season have won a game by

1012
00:47:52,719 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 3: two and a game by three, so they can do

1013
00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:58,000
Speaker 3: that and still we get the cover at three and

1014
00:47:58,040 --> 00:48:01,000
Speaker 3: a half. And Minnesota has a three point lost this season,

1015
00:48:01,120 --> 00:48:04,319
Speaker 3: so another spot where the Vikings lose but still get

1016
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:07,200
Speaker 3: the cover. I can't believe this. I am not a

1017
00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:10,240
Speaker 3: person to back my team. I'm picking the Vikings twice

1018
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:12,479
Speaker 3: on one podcast. What can possibly go wrong?

1019
00:48:12,920 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 1: But at three and a half, I gotta do it

1020
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:16,440
Speaker 1: for Thursday night against the Chargers.

1021
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 2: I was gonna say, you can make the case that

1022
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:20,759
Speaker 2: the Chargers are part of the reason for this bet,

1023
00:48:21,080 --> 00:48:23,680
Speaker 2: but you're really just doubling down on the Vikings too.

1024
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:26,879
Speaker 2: At least beat beat the Eagles, stay in the game

1025
00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 2: against the Eagles, if they play the Eagles hard, this

1026
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:31,759
Speaker 2: is the right play on the line. And then you're

1027
00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:33,880
Speaker 2: really doubling down. So I really give it to you, Brandon,

1028
00:48:33,960 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 2: Well done, nice job. All right. That'll do it. Here

1029
00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:39,480
Speaker 2: on the Action Every Podcast for NFL Week seven Best

1030
00:48:39,560 --> 00:48:44,000
Speaker 2: Bets presented by DraftKings. If you want instant notifications when

1031
00:48:44,080 --> 00:48:46,799
Speaker 2: action experts track their bets, go to Action hour dot

1032
00:48:46,880 --> 00:48:49,719
Speaker 2: com slash Pro use a promo code Pod twenty for

1033
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:52,400
Speaker 2: twenty dollars off a year of Action Pro. If you

1034
00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:56,160
Speaker 2: haven't yet, check out our new AI quick Slipbot on

1035
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:59,640
Speaker 2: x just tag Playbook at playbook tell to grab whatever

1036
00:48:59,719 --> 00:49:01,759
Speaker 2: bets you're looking for and it'll create a quick slip

1037
00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:04,359
Speaker 2: link for you in a matter of seconds. And again,

1038
00:49:04,640 --> 00:49:06,239
Speaker 2: if you want to tail some of the bets we

1039
00:49:06,320 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 2: gave out today, make sure to look for the quick

1040
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:10,920
Speaker 2: slip link in the podcast and video description, or go

1041
00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:13,400
Speaker 2: to Action hourk dot com st bet now b E

1042
00:49:13,520 --> 00:49:16,520
Speaker 2: T n OW bet now. We will be back Sunday

1043
00:49:16,600 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 2: night for our NFL recap show that'll be live on

1044
00:49:19,280 --> 00:49:23,000
Speaker 2: Actions YouTube page shortly after Sunday Night football. Thank you

1045
00:49:23,080 --> 00:49:25,799
Speaker 2: for listening, enjoy this good luck with all your bets

1046
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:28,680
Speaker 2: this weekend. Let's go cash some tickets, Go vikings, I guess.

1047
00:49:32,160 --> 00:49:32,399
Speaker 3: Thanks.

1048
00:49:44,280 --> 00:49:48,759
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1049
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:51,600
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1050
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Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler