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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us prow read a lot? They're up for running

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Speaker 2: a game so smooth, so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 3: Six sing just glorious.

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Speaker 1: Ex procution, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent

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Speaker 1: effort four thousand percent of the time. How shot with

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Speaker 1: that shop of mind?

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Speaker 2: God buddy, And that's why you.

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Speaker 3: See nor beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picture them up.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: The wall.

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Speaker 2: It's left too, the wide eyed drill pibus, how old

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Speaker 2: earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hello everybody, Welcome back to Wondergoo, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 1: from the Action Network. My name is Michael Lee buff.

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Speaker 1: This is our third World Cup preview episode. This one

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Speaker 1: will go over our favorite tournament futures. If you want

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Speaker 1: to get into our deep dives through all eight groups,

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Speaker 1: you can do that on this channel, but this one

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Speaker 1: will be a little quick hitting. We'll go over our

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Speaker 1: favorite bets to win the tournament you reach the final

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Speaker 1: semis et cetera, our favorite bets for Golden boot, Golden ball,

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Speaker 1: and other player specific futures. And before I bring in

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Speaker 1: my co hosts Anthony Dbundo and BJ Cunningham. A reminder

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Speaker 1: that Wonder Goal is presented by Bet three six five,

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Speaker 1: the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code

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Speaker 1: action to get Bet three six five's exclusive sign up

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Speaker 1: offer in New Jersey and Colorado. Bet one dollar on

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Speaker 1: any game, get two hundred free, BJ and Anthony. Let's

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Speaker 1: start with the Big Kahuna to win the World Cup.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to run through the odds real quick as

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Speaker 1: they stand at Bet three six five. Now, Brazil's a

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Speaker 1: favorite there four to one, Argentina second favorite plus five fifty,

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Speaker 1: France six to one, England eight to one, Spain just

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Speaker 1: behind them plus eight fifty. Germany's ten to one, the

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Speaker 1: Netherlands twelve to one, Portugal fourteen to one, Belgium sixteen

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Speaker 1: to one, Denmark twenty eight to one. Then we get

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Speaker 1: to a little bit of a jump here with Croatia

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Speaker 1: and Uruguay. They're both fifty to one. Senegal's eighty to one,

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Speaker 1: so are Serbia, Mexico as well. Switzerland one hundred to one.

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Speaker 1: Poland won fifty to one, the United States of America

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Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty to one, Canada two hundred to one,

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Speaker 1: Ecuador two hundred to one, so are Morocco Wales. Cameron

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Speaker 1: is two fifty to one, so is Ghana, so is Japan,

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Speaker 1: so is Katar the host, so is South Korea. Then

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Speaker 1: Australia is three fifty to one. I ran five hundred

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Speaker 1: to one, Tunisia five hundred to one, and then the

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Speaker 1: two biggest long shots at seven hundred and fifty to one,

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Speaker 1: Peace Costa Rica and Saudi Arabia. Anthony, I read through them.

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Speaker 1: Let's start at the top. If you're betting a team inside,

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Speaker 1: basically inside Denmark, so we'll say Denmark starts the next year.

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Speaker 1: Any team below twenty eight to one, who are you backing.

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Speaker 3: It's really tough to say this year because I think

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Speaker 3: there's there's no dominant team. I think Brazil is clearly

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Speaker 3: the best team on paper. Everybody went insane when the

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Speaker 3: draw or when the roster came out, and you're like,

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Speaker 3: if you just took the next ten players from Brazil

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Speaker 3: who didn't make the World Cup team and then put

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Speaker 3: them on the same team, they would probably be good

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Speaker 3: enough to get out of any group in this World

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Speaker 3: Cup because they have so much depth everywhere, so much talent.

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Speaker 3: Vinnie Junior Namar Rodrigo and Antony and it is a

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Speaker 3: lot of fun to watch Brunogi Marus and Lucas Pakeetta.

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Speaker 3: So Brazil is the best team, but you don't make

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Speaker 3: money betting the World Cup by betting on the favorite

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Speaker 3: in a single elimination, knockout tournament. Brazil was the best

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Speaker 3: team going into the twenty eighteen World Cup, most people thought,

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Speaker 3: at least, and then you know, they got soccered against Belgium,

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Speaker 3: lost to one, so they went out. So I tend

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Speaker 3: to look at this from a process elimination point of view.

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Speaker 3: Why can't Team X win the World Cup? For England,

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Speaker 3: it's the midfield pairing and the manager for me that

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Speaker 3: I'm a little bit concerned with them. Argentina, are they

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Speaker 3: good enough without the ball? I think there's a question

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Speaker 3: marks regarding that. I think they have a very complete team,

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Speaker 3: but there's always the defensive question marks.

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Speaker 1: Two.

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Speaker 3: Then you start looking down the list.

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Speaker 2: France.

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Speaker 3: We talked about it on our group preview pod. We

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Speaker 3: think France is a little bit vulnerable. We don't think

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Speaker 3: that they are as good as the sum of the parts. Necessarily,

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Speaker 3: when you look at the talent and you compare that

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Speaker 3: to their performances at the Euros, it wasn't that great.

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Speaker 3: And even going back to the World Cup, yes they

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Speaker 3: won the World Cup and they were awesome, but a

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Speaker 3: lot of set piece goals went into that. So I

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Speaker 3: think you could make the case that maybe they're not

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Speaker 3: quite as good as that World Cup win is suggesting.

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Speaker 3: And you keep going down the list Germany defensive issues.

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Speaker 3: The one team that I settled on doesn't have the

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Speaker 3: best path. That's the scary part here. But I think

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Speaker 3: that they were the best team at the Euros by

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Speaker 3: expect a goal difference, and of course we know that

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Speaker 3: they're going to be solid defensively, They're always going to

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Speaker 3: have the ball. They have a ton a ton a

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Speaker 3: ton of midfield depth, which I think is the most

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Speaker 3: important thing in this World Cup because of the condensed

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Speaker 3: it is and the heat. I like Spain plus a fifty.

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Speaker 3: They're my long, They're they're my favorite favorite. BJ's pumping

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Speaker 3: his fists, so I think I'm out now, But but

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Speaker 3: I just think that, look, there's gonna be flukes and

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Speaker 3: there's gonna be variants either way. And the argument against

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Speaker 3: Spain is that they don't have the finishing, but like

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Speaker 3: they were still a penalty shootout from the world from

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Speaker 3: the Euro Final last year, where they would have been

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Speaker 3: a favorite against England. They should have won that match

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Speaker 3: against Italy. They were clearly the better side. Like, there

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Speaker 3: are flaws in this Spain team, I think, but when

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Speaker 3: you look at the pape on paper, I think they

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Speaker 3: have the fewest of the flaws of the top top

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Speaker 3: teams in this competition.

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Speaker 1: So give me Spain.

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Speaker 3: I understand that they're probably gonna have to be Brazil

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Speaker 3: in the quarterfinals to get there if they win the group.

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Speaker 3: If they come in second, they might even get a

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Speaker 3: better draw, so it gets more interesting that way. But look,

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Speaker 3: it's so we're you're gonna have to beat the best

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Speaker 3: teams to win it. France took out Argentina in the

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Speaker 3: round of sixteen, they took out England, they took out Belgium,

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Speaker 3: clearly a very good team. So I'm gonna take Spain

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Speaker 3: as my favorite favorite of the teams.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it does beg man shooting. As you said,

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Speaker 1: you don't really make money betting the favorite, But the

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Speaker 1: World Cup tests tend to be pretty chalky in terms

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Speaker 1: of who wins it. However, we do see long shots

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Speaker 1: go far we'll see. We've seen Uruguay, they made a

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Speaker 1: semi final about twelve years ago. Turkey and South Korea

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Speaker 1: in the same semi final. This was before you were born, Anthony,

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Speaker 1: back in two thousand and two, and that was just

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Speaker 1: I am not that young. A bananas World Cup in

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Speaker 1: South Korea and Japan. They eventually would would lose in

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Speaker 1: that round. So we will see teams go on runs.

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Speaker 1: It's just eventually one of the big dogs usually does

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Speaker 1: take it. I like Spain too, if I'm taking a

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Speaker 1: team up there, I actually don't mind Portugal. I like

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Speaker 1: another team in their group two as an out right

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Speaker 1: because here's the thing with Portugal. It has to click

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Speaker 1: and if it doesn't. If it doesn't click, the floor

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Speaker 1: is very low. And if it but if it does click,

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Speaker 1: like it did in the Euros in twenty sixteen, when

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Speaker 1: everyone this was a similar conversation around this run though,

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Speaker 1: come on, well, what do you need to do with

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Speaker 1: a tornied it? This is a tourte bit. They drew,

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Speaker 1: they drew, they drew, they got through, and it's just

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Speaker 1: like they only won one match in regular I know,

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Speaker 1: and they but they won the tournament. I'm saying, if

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Speaker 1: things click for this team. We know the talent's there,

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Speaker 1: it's the numbers probably not high enough. I probably won't

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Speaker 1: bet it's being or Portugal for me at this at

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Speaker 1: this section, because I think every other team, like you said,

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Speaker 1: if you're betting a favorite, if you're betting these prices,

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Speaker 1: they off too many flaws. It's it's too wide open.

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Speaker 1: That's why I would prefer just almost bypass it. BJ

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Speaker 1: you're yeah, I mean, and we know y'all know, we

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Speaker 1: know you're going to be betting England.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I know you know you're going to know. I

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Speaker 2: want to say a point about Portugal. The argument for

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Speaker 2: Portugal is a path, aren't it right?

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Speaker 1: Right?

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Speaker 2: Because even though we don't like Portugal, if they win

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Speaker 2: the group, they have a pretty favorable path to at

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Speaker 2: least get to the SEMIS right to play England or

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Speaker 2: to play France. So for me, I agree with you guys.

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Speaker 2: Spain was the first team essentially that I landed on. Again,

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Speaker 2: the path isn't great, but like Anthony mentioned, like they

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Speaker 2: were the best team at the Euros like sent throughout

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Speaker 2: World co qualifying and the Euros second best expected gold

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Speaker 2: differential per ninety only to England. They're incredibly possession dominant,

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Speaker 2: like they're slow, they're intricate and everything like that. But

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Speaker 2: what they do is they adopt a lot of principles

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Speaker 2: of like what Pep Guardiola does at Manchester City where

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Speaker 2: they invert their wingers, like they really like, they're the

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Speaker 2: most accurate passing team in this entire tournament. So it's very,

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Speaker 2: very hard to get the ball off of them. And

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Speaker 2: then yeah, finishing is one thing. We'll get to Alberolmatzs

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Speaker 2: in the Golden Booth segment, but yes, Anthony also mentioned

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Speaker 2: that the midfield of rodri Iago Pedri gave Carlos Stilaire,

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Speaker 2: Sergio bus Gets Cok, Like any combination of that is

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Speaker 2: incredible in the midfield. It can play with anybody in

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Speaker 2: this tournament. So I agree with you guys. Plus eight

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Speaker 2: fifty I think is a little too steep. Are at

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Speaker 2: too long on Spain. Honestly, I think they should be

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Speaker 2: around the second or third favorite to win this tournament.

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Speaker 2: You know, everybody's going to talk about Argentina, the unbeaten

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Speaker 2: run they've been on, and that's going to be, you know,

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Speaker 2: essentially the talking point that they'll have. But if you

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Speaker 2: go through their results, like yes, they won Copa America.

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Speaker 2: Like they weren't particularly great against Brazil in that final,

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Speaker 2: Like they haven't really played the most difficult competition throughout

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Speaker 2: their run. Like they're only a plus point nine actually

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Speaker 2: differential per ninety in South America, while Brazil is up

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Speaker 2: at plus one point four, So it's not like they

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Speaker 2: there's actually quite a little bit of a gap between

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Speaker 2: them and Brazil. And also in full roster talents, I

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Speaker 2: don't think they're one of the three four best talent

200
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Speaker 2: teams in this tournament. Messi like, yeah, he's Lionel Messi,

201
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Speaker 2: but guess what, he's thirty five and he's been injured

202
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Speaker 2: for PSG, so he's not going to be one hundred

203
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Speaker 2: percent company in the tournament. I know that's going to

204
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Speaker 2: come back to bite me, but still it has to

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Speaker 2: be mentioned. Now why I love England to win the

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Speaker 2: World Cup.

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Speaker 1: We could just clip your r preview put it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you just put my euro preview where I gave

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Speaker 2: out England at seven to one and they lost on penalties.

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Speaker 2: Here's the reality is that, yes, Garrett Salgate tends to

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Speaker 2: play a more slow, conservative, possession dominant style that I

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Speaker 2: know a lot of English fans don't like and they

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Speaker 2: think it hinders their attacking, you know, prowess. But the

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Speaker 2: reality is they've been the best defensive team in Europe.

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Speaker 2: Like I already mentioned on our other podcasts, they didn't

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Speaker 2: concede a goal in the Euros until the semi finals,

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Speaker 2: like throughout World Cup qualifying they've only allowed five expected goals. Like,

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Speaker 2: they are an incredible defensive team. And I actually think

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Speaker 2: their midfield pairing of Bellingham and Rice is outstanding in

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Speaker 2: this type of tournament in terms of guys who can

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Speaker 2: not only stop opposing counter attacks but also progress the ball,

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Speaker 2: control the tempo of how England wants to play. They

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Speaker 2: should pretty much cruise through their group. And the reality

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Speaker 2: is is in this tournament, you're gonna want to be

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Speaker 2: on the bottom half of the bracket, right because the

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Speaker 2: top half it's probably going to be Brazil, It's probably

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Speaker 2: gonna be Spain, Argentina, the Netherlands, who we also like,

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Speaker 2: you know, in terms of maybe individual bets throughout the tournament,

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Speaker 2: but their price is not good enough to actually bet

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Speaker 2: them to win the tournament, especially given the path. If

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Speaker 2: England wins Group B, they're gonna play the runner up

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Speaker 2: group at which most likely Senegal, incredibly favorable matchup for them.

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Speaker 2: Then they're been a place. Then they're probably gonna play

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Speaker 2: France another again, a matchup that we think that they

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Speaker 2: can definitely win. And then they get to the Semis,

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Speaker 2: where it's probably gonna be any combination of Belgium, Uruguay

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Speaker 2: or Portugal again another favorable matchup. So then you're getting

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Speaker 2: to a final where you have a chance obviously to hedge.

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Speaker 2: So I do the international Soccer rankings here at the

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Speaker 2: Action Network you can check them out. I have England

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Speaker 2: rated as the number one team in the world. A

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Speaker 2: lot of that has to do with the fact that

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Speaker 2: if you look at transfer market dot Com, they have

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Speaker 2: the most valuable squad of anybody in this entire tournament,

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Speaker 2: the attacking prowess they have with Harry Kane, but kaya

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Speaker 2: Soka Mason Mount. They are one of the two or

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Speaker 2: three best teams in this tournament. And I don't think

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Speaker 2: they should be priced below Argentina in France. So you know,

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Speaker 2: it sucks that Rhys James, Kyle Walker and Ben Schoell

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Speaker 2: are out. If like they were all in, I'd be like,

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Speaker 2: oh my gosh, this England team is so good. But

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Speaker 2: the reality is is that England's a little low at

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Speaker 2: eight to one in my opinion, So I do like

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Speaker 2: them to win the tournament. Like you mentioned, Michael, favorites

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Speaker 2: tend to win tournament.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 2: You go back to at least two thousand and two,

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Speaker 2: I'd imagine Brazil was the favorite in South Korea and Japan.

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Speaker 2: Two thousand and six, Italy was plus eight fifty. You go,

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Speaker 2: twenty ten, it was obviously the peak of the Spain's

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Speaker 2: you know era, and they were obviously the favorite to

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Speaker 2: win that tournament. Twenty fourteen, Germany was plus eight fifty.

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Speaker 2: And then obviously the last World Cup, France was the

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Speaker 2: favorites of five to one. So the favorites do tend

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Speaker 2: to win the World Cups. So that's why I'm looking

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Speaker 2: towards Spain and England because I think their price just

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Speaker 2: a little bit too lower than France or Argentina. I

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Speaker 2: really think those two should be above both France and Argentina.

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Speaker 1: I do think the narrative's gone too far in England.

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Speaker 2: I guess it has. That's and that's the thing is, like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: the media surrounding England is the worst of any team

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Speaker 2: on the planet, right, because they are so negative anytime

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Speaker 2: anything bad happens, right, even what it would be like

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Speaker 2: like they were calling for Southgate to get fired because

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Speaker 2: of a couple of bad Nations League results, like, and

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Speaker 2: that was the thing I was kind of playing into.

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Speaker 2: I was like, Okay, yeah, they have them been good

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Speaker 2: in the Nations League, but really what the Nations League

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Speaker 2: is is for managers to try out different tactics and

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Speaker 2: see what we're and what doesn't into rotate players. It

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Speaker 2: doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things, but

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Speaker 2: it's also a good way to It's almost like glorified friendlies.

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Speaker 2: So I was hoping people would buy into that and

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Speaker 2: we'd get England a better price. But yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 2: the narrative around England is that they suck, They play horribly,

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Speaker 2: like they're gonna lose, like you know, it's never coming home.

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Speaker 2: Guess what football is coming home? Michael.

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Speaker 3: I think on the flip side to the narrative has

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Speaker 3: gone too far. In the argument is that they played

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Speaker 3: almost every game in the Euros at home. Right now

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Speaker 3: they got to go to the desert, So I think

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Speaker 3: that that that has to factor in when we consider

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Speaker 3: how good they were at the Euros.

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Speaker 1: They did go.

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Speaker 3: I think they went on the road for one of

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Speaker 3: their group matches and then it was against there, right,

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Speaker 3: and well also they had the Scotland match, right, so

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Speaker 3: it was so they played one road match, right, and

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Speaker 3: then it was that a home match against Scotland.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, well either way it was it was

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Speaker 1: on the island.

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Speaker 3: Right, yeah, and then they had they had the one

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Speaker 3: neutral site match in Rome and they were back home

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Speaker 3: for the semis in the final. So I think that

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Speaker 3: factor's in like the conditions will not be that great

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Speaker 3: for necessarily all their Premier league players not used to

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Speaker 3: playing in ninety plus degree heat too often, which is

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Speaker 3: the potential for this game for this World Cup. But

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Speaker 3: I think, you know, I like Denmark to win that

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Speaker 3: one group, So if you're looking at the path, then

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Speaker 3: it gets very friendly for England if they're able to

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Speaker 3: win the group in the world where they could see

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Speaker 3: Senegal and then potentially Denmark and in a quarterfinal in

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Speaker 3: a rematch of what we saw at the euro semifinal,

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Speaker 3: which you know, England's clearly better than Denmark. So even

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Speaker 3: though I'll betting Denmark if that match occurs, So I

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Speaker 3: see the case for England, but the numbers not quite

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Speaker 3: there for me.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's let's skip down to Denmark and beyond

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Speaker 1: and we'll talk about some long shots. I think if

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Speaker 1: you listen to our Groups E through H podcast you'll

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Speaker 1: know this. All three of us are pretty high on Uruguay.

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Speaker 1: I think that Uruguay is the best bet in this

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Speaker 1: range at fifty to one. I talked a little bit

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Speaker 1: in the group's A through Deep podcast about Ecuador and

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Speaker 1: how I like South American teams to do well in

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Speaker 1: these tournaments because it comes down to a couple of

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Speaker 1: different things. One, they go to really tough environments throughout

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Speaker 1: their World Cup qualifying, which is incredibly hard. Cononibal is

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Speaker 1: notoriously difficult. You go into places like Bolivia or Colombia

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Speaker 1: and playing in these really hostile environments. So I think

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Speaker 1: that these teams should translate well into these kind of

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Speaker 1: weird adverse conditions. The other thing is that these these

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Speaker 1: are tournament teams. Like Copa America matters so much to

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Speaker 1: every team in South America. So they play these tournaments

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Speaker 1: and where's like the Gold Cup? Do people care about

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Speaker 1: the Gold Cup in Conca kep now? And yeah, the

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Speaker 1: Euros are big, but that's that once every four years,

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Speaker 1: so and the qualifying nobody cares. Like England plays San Marino,

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Speaker 1: it's not it's not a big deal, right, there's.

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Speaker 2: So many pain inflates his.

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Speaker 1: Goal exactly, there's there's very whereas in South America they

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Speaker 1: just play a lot more meaningful games. So I just

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Speaker 1: think these teams are are kind of more cohesive in

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Speaker 1: that and and that bears out. We'll see teams like

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Speaker 1: like you're why make runs. Obviously Brazil and Argentina really

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Speaker 1: good team. Generally, Chile usually does pretty well when they

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Speaker 1: qualify for the World Cup. So just from like a

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Speaker 1: narrative standpoint, I like Uruguay. Obviously the talent's there too,

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Speaker 1: but Darwin Uniez, Fetti Valverde. They should be well structured

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Speaker 1: in the back. Our man Luslera, him and him and

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Speaker 1: Memo Ochoa man. They'll just play in every World Cup

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Speaker 1: from from now until the end of the eternity in

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Speaker 1: goal for their respective sides. I just I like this team.

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Speaker 1: They have Suarez and Cavani, both of them they can

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Speaker 1: kind of rotate. Anthony talked about the conditions you're not

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Speaker 1: going to play ninety minutes of Luis Suarez every match,

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Speaker 1: but you and you're not gonna do it with Cavane,

359
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Speaker 1: but you know, like for like switch there. So there's

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Speaker 1: just a ton of signals on this team as they

361
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Speaker 1: take basically every box for a long shot that you

362
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Speaker 1: want to back, and their group is so manageable Ghana,

363
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Speaker 1: South Korea, Portugal, who we all admit is a vulnerable

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Speaker 1: favorite in the group stage. So the sky Blues. I

365
00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:54,240
Speaker 1: was going to try to pronounce it in Spanish, but

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Speaker 1: my Spanish is terrible. Anthony, talk to me about Uruguay.

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Speaker 2: For a second.

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Speaker 3: I thought you were going to talk about the other

369
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Speaker 3: team you're betting. When I said no at the beginning

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Speaker 3: of this little rant, because I thought they were gonna

371
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Speaker 3: mention stars and stripes, which are they have zero chance

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Speaker 3: of winning the World Cup.

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Speaker 1: Zero, But.

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Speaker 3: My long shot is also Aguay. A lot of agreement.

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Speaker 3: We talked about them, We gushed about how much we

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Speaker 3: like them. I love Benjon current Valverdi. I think they're

377
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Speaker 3: in grade fourm. I think that the biggest weakness for

378
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Speaker 3: this team was the midfield kind of just lacking at

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Speaker 3: the last uh, you know, the last World Cup and

380
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Speaker 3: then the and then you know, even the Copa. But

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Speaker 3: they're a major positive aggression candidate. They went through a

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Speaker 3: huge finishing slump still got through qualifying. Extremely underrated. I

383
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Speaker 3: don't think there's a huge gap between them in Argentina.

384
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Speaker 3: I'm gonna be honest. So I think Uruguay is definitely

385
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Speaker 3: undervalued and the path is good if they win the group,

386
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Speaker 3: which I think they're going to do. So if they

387
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Speaker 3: win the group, you're looking at a pretty favorable round

388
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Speaker 3: of sixteen matchup and then I mean at that point, yeah,

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Speaker 3: the quarterfinals of the World Cup are going to be hard,

390
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Speaker 3: but there's no reason they couldn't make a deep run.

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Speaker 3: So I like Uruguay.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I've stuff doesn't really matter. You know, every

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Speaker 1: World Cup's different, but they are a team that has

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Speaker 1: the pedigree to get through. They normally get through the group.

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Speaker 1: They're really tough tournament team to knock out because it's

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Speaker 1: the style that they played under Oscar Tabarez. He's gone now.

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Speaker 1: He's there for fifteen years though, and so many of

398
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Speaker 1: these players played under him, so they should be able

399
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Speaker 1: to manage games too in situations. So yeah, Uruguay for us,

400
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Speaker 1: BJ are you coming with us on the sky Blue.

401
00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:25,840
Speaker 1: Such a such a cool story too, about how this team,

402
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Speaker 1: how this country just produces great team players and teams.

403
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Speaker 1: Three million people, really small country in South America, kind

404
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Speaker 1: of at the foot of Brazil and above Argentina, the

405
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Speaker 1: lovable underdogs who play a very dark art style of soccer.

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Speaker 2: Right, I mean for what you give you met I

407
00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:43,320
Speaker 2: mean you hit the nail on the head. Right. So

408
00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:47,399
Speaker 2: Tabaris has gone. Dieo Alonso came in after essentially it

409
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:49,440
Speaker 2: was a poor run of form throughout work of qualifying

410
00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 2: and also Copa America, and they just went on a

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00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,960
Speaker 2: run once he once he got in charge. And what Uruguay.

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Speaker 2: What I also love about them with you guys, is

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Speaker 2: that they they're going to play a four to four two.

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Speaker 2: They have good structure defensively and they can sit back

415
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Speaker 2: and they can counter a lot of these bigger sides.

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Speaker 2: I mean. Obviously, Darwin Dunez is starting to come on

417
00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:08,000
Speaker 2: for Liverpool, like he's average the most shots for ninety

418
00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:10,480
Speaker 2: in Europe this season, which is quite impressive. You know,

419
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Speaker 2: he'll play alongside Suarez, it will be a good striking partnership.

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Speaker 2: Valverde is probably the most informed midfielder in the entire

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Speaker 2: world right now, you know, when we get to the

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Speaker 2: player segment, he's one of the guys I like to

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Speaker 2: win Golden Ball. But again it's just a team with

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Speaker 2: a really good structure, has a good path if they

425
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Speaker 2: can win this group, and obviously you know if they

426
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Speaker 2: if they don't, then it's then it becomes a little

427
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Speaker 2: bit more troublesome. But yes, at fifty to one, it's

428
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Speaker 2: a good price on Uruguay. I also like Denmark at

429
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:40,040
Speaker 2: thirty to one. I think no matter the path, whether

430
00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:43,600
Speaker 2: they finish first in Group D or if they finish second,

431
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Speaker 2: I think they're absolutely a live dog against Argentina. And

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Speaker 2: then you know, eventually Hope probably will play the Netherlands

433
00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:52,640
Speaker 2: or the United States and the you know against then

434
00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:56,160
Speaker 2: against the Netherlands, they'll honestly be only a slight underdog.

435
00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,480
Speaker 2: So and then from there it's just you know, like

436
00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:00,200
Speaker 2: we already said, it's a team that's just very well

437
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:02,880
Speaker 2: drilled and playing together for a really really really long time,

438
00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:05,040
Speaker 2: knows what they want to do. Tax Lee, can pressure

439
00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:07,919
Speaker 2: teams very very well, can possess the ball, just a

440
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:11,199
Speaker 2: really really good side. So at thirty to one, you know,

441
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:15,080
Speaker 2: the price maybe isn't isn't that great. But again, if

442
00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:16,600
Speaker 2: you want to look for a long shot that's the

443
00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:19,440
Speaker 2: most likely to win this tournament, it's Uraguay or Denmark

444
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 2: would be the two. So yeah, that's that's where I'm going.

445
00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:24,440
Speaker 3: I think for me, you know, the difference between Uruguay

446
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:28,600
Speaker 3: and Denmark is that I love both teams, but I

447
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 3: think Denmark runs into a wall at a certain point

448
00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 3: where they just don't have the high end attacking talent

449
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:36,880
Speaker 3: to win this, whereas like if you you know, we'll

450
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:38,560
Speaker 3: talk about this in a minute, Like I think Denmark

451
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:41,520
Speaker 3: is definitely a high floor team that like can easily

452
00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:43,440
Speaker 3: make the quarterfinals and I wouldn't be shocked at all.

453
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,359
Speaker 3: But can I see them beating two or three really

454
00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:49,600
Speaker 3: great powerhouses with the lack of attacking talent, Like they'd

455
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:52,159
Speaker 3: have to really magic up some set piece stuff and

456
00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:55,120
Speaker 3: they could do that, Like they're very good on set pieces.

457
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,040
Speaker 3: It's another reason they get an edge over teams. But

458
00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:00,840
Speaker 3: I don't quite see the attacking talent whereas they're you

459
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:03,960
Speaker 3: can see a world where Darwin or Luis Suarez kind

460
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:08,280
Speaker 3: of you know, carries and and Darwin hasn't been great

461
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 3: at Liverpool, but the underlying numbers are very encouraging for

462
00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:14,359
Speaker 3: him there and also the conditions. I think think the

463
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,200
Speaker 3: conditions Denmark kind of ran out of gas by the

464
00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:19,159
Speaker 3: end of that, of the end of that, the end

465
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 3: of the Euro run like they looked really just exhausted

466
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:23,200
Speaker 3: by the end of it. They don't have as much

467
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 3: depth whereas I think one the conditions are more favorable,

468
00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:27,720
Speaker 3: and too they have a little bit more depth in

469
00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 3: attack in midfield. So I think I see the case

470
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 3: for Uguay and more, even if the path might be

471
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 3: a little easier for Denmark. But definitely love All right.

472
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:40,720
Speaker 1: Let's talk about USA. I think I wrote them down.

473
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 1: I think one hundred and fifty to one. Whatever it's

474
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,199
Speaker 1: it's a homer pick. Yeah, it's a homer pick. Like

475
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:45,639
Speaker 1: why why we.

476
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 3: Don't even have a striker?

477
00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 1: Why would you want it for rare Well?

478
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:51,960
Speaker 2: I will do the US saying, but I really think

479
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 2: they should just play Brendan Aronson as a false.

480
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:55,240
Speaker 3: Sign Tim Weia.

481
00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:57,879
Speaker 1: But I mean, I'm going to bet them just as

482
00:21:57,880 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 1: a homer pick, is what I'm saying. I say it's

483
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:01,879
Speaker 1: going to be a good but that's going to be

484
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 1: another long shot out play. But let's skip ahead now

485
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 1: to another way to play them. This is why BJ's playing.

486
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:09,960
Speaker 1: I'm much more realistic. We'll look at some future bets

487
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:12,440
Speaker 1: to reach you know, the final, semi finals and quarterfinals

488
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,200
Speaker 1: will start with the Yanks. BJ. They're plus four to

489
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:18,160
Speaker 1: fifty to make the quarterfinals. Lay it out.

490
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 2: I like that bet. Obviously I love them to get

491
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:23,679
Speaker 2: through here in Group B. We've already we don't need

492
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:25,920
Speaker 2: to rehash the whole whales thing from the last podcast.

493
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,320
Speaker 2: But the most likely scenario for the United States is

494
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:31,280
Speaker 2: they finished second in Group B, which means that they

495
00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 2: have essentially a match against the Netherlands. And so you

496
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,360
Speaker 2: have to ask yourself, is the United States really going

497
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:39,400
Speaker 2: to be plus four to fifty on the two advanced

498
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 2: line against Netlands. I don't see a scenario where that's happening.

499
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 2: So really it's just a price point where if the

500
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 2: United States, and obviously if they win the group that's

501
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 2: even better, they get a more favorable matchup against Senegal

502
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 2: or Ecuador. But the reality is that the United States,

503
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:56,159
Speaker 2: they have the talent right to at least compete in

504
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:58,480
Speaker 2: this tournament to potentially make the quarters for the first time.

505
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:01,920
Speaker 2: And I can't remember how long but the matchup between

506
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:04,040
Speaker 2: the Netherlands is not going to be that great. But again,

507
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:05,479
Speaker 2: for me, it's just a price point thing. I think

508
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:07,439
Speaker 2: you're going to get to a good opportunity where you

509
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:09,679
Speaker 2: can have a ticket on the United States to make

510
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 2: the quarters, in a minus two to fifty ticket on

511
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 2: the Netherlands to advance, and then you're just sitting there

512
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 2: with with house money. So that's the way I'm playing

513
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,160
Speaker 2: the United States, not really saying that I like them

514
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,160
Speaker 2: against the Netherlands, that they're potentially going to beat them,

515
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 2: but I just think the price is way too high

516
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:25,919
Speaker 2: for what the potential the worst possible potential matchup is

517
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:27,440
Speaker 2: for them in the round of sixteen.

518
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 1: We already talked about Denmark. You like them to make

519
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,399
Speaker 1: the semi finals as well, five to one and a

520
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 1: team we haven't touched on in this one, Switzerland another

521
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:36,639
Speaker 1: quarter final bet for you.

522
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, And again it's another path argument, right because if

523
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:43,879
Speaker 2: they finish second in this group with Brazil, which is

524
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,159
Speaker 2: what most likely is going to happen, they're going to

525
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:48,199
Speaker 2: play Portugal or they're going to play Uruguay. And it's

526
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:50,840
Speaker 2: again it's another price argument where I don't see a

527
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 2: scenario where Erguyre Portugal is going to be more than

528
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 2: really minus two hundred to advance for Switzerland. And again

529
00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 2: it's like we've already mentioned, very well drilled set that

530
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 2: has been playing together for a long time, can sit

531
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:05,399
Speaker 2: in a deep low block, can do well out of possession.

532
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 2: Granted shocks in the form of his life right now,

533
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 2: he's the catalyst for their entire build up play. They

534
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:15,440
Speaker 2: have good goalkeeping, good good center backs and wingbacks that

535
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 2: you know, maybe on a club level haven't been that great,

536
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 2: but for the national team, they can get up the pitch,

537
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 2: they can cause some problems, and they have a good

538
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 2: striker in Breal Lombolo. So yeah, at plus thir three

539
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,879
Speaker 2: thirty three to make the quarters, given that, you know,

540
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 2: essentially if they and even if they somehow potentially win

541
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 2: Group G over Brazil, you know they get second place

542
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,200
Speaker 2: in Group PAGE. So really it's a matchup against Uruguay

543
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:40,200
Speaker 2: or Portugal where I do not think they're going to

544
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 2: be plus three thirty three. So I think you're going

545
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:43,399
Speaker 2: to have a great number and a good opportunity to

546
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 2: hedge on the Swiss to make the quarterfinals.

547
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:48,679
Speaker 1: Anthony, you we talked about Uruguay so we don't need

548
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,440
Speaker 1: to talk about your bet about them making the quarterfinals.

549
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:53,159
Speaker 1: You like them at plus two forty, but you do

550
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 1: think the Netherlands have some value here.

551
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, of course, a lot of these bets

552
00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:59,439
Speaker 3: are correlated. So if I like Uraguay fifty to one

553
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 3: is my longch and I'm naturally going to like think

554
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 3: they're undervalued to get to the quarterfinals as well, because

555
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 3: I think they're going to win that group. Win the group,

556
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:09,159
Speaker 3: you have to be kind of be careful with bankroll management.

557
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:10,639
Speaker 3: You know, you don't want to load up on Uruguay

558
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:12,199
Speaker 3: to win the group, or Aguay to make the Semis,

559
00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 3: or Aguay to win the tournament. Then they lose one

560
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 3: game and you're like shit, all those tickets are dead

561
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 3: one game. They shouldn't at least, I just think Holland

562
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 3: is not getting enough love here in the market for

563
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 3: what I think is going to be a very favorable

564
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,400
Speaker 3: path for them to get through. They could you could

565
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 3: make an argument they're the most informed team in all

566
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 3: of Europe. That's kind of been the storyline going into

567
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 3: this tournament. Is Okay, all the European teams seem to

568
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 3: be struggling. They're all in panic mode. England has its issues,

569
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 3: Germany has its issues, France has injuries. Everybody's gonna just

570
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 3: fold up shop Mens will not even show up for

571
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 3: the tournament. Holland is like the.

572
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 2: Opposite of that.

573
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:46,879
Speaker 1: And I think that the.

574
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,359
Speaker 3: Lineup that they could put out there doesn't really have

575
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:50,120
Speaker 3: a clear weakness. And this is something we talked about

576
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,120
Speaker 3: on the group stage pod as well. Where's the weakness?

577
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 3: Vandyke is back, he didn't even play in the Euros.

578
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:58,879
Speaker 3: O will definitely bolster the defense. Cody Gakpo is in

579
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,959
Speaker 3: the middle of an elite breakout season at PSV. One

580
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:03,920
Speaker 3: of the most fun players young players in the tournament.

581
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,680
Speaker 3: Memphis to Pie, we know we're getting consistent production from him.

582
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,399
Speaker 3: The fullbacks Daily Blind is a great passer Frankie Deyong

583
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:11,959
Speaker 3: and midfield great passer Doom Freese gets up and down

584
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 3: the wing very effectively. And the biggest change since the

585
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 3: Euros last summer, when I was not a Netherlins fan

586
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 3: is the manager. De boer is gone. Horrible manager incomes

587
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 3: Louisan Hall. I don't think louisvan Hall is, you know,

588
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:27,960
Speaker 3: a tactical genius or a savant of a manager. But

589
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 3: I think he's a solid international manager who puts his

590
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:32,160
Speaker 3: best players on the pitch and knows how to set

591
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 3: them up. And I think they're a very dangerous team.

592
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,880
Speaker 3: So you look at the path, I think their group

593
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 3: is not easy. There's no there's no gimme in the group.

594
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 3: But they have a clear talent edge over all three

595
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:46,119
Speaker 3: of the teams. They win the group, they're likely to

596
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 3: get what is generally a pretty mediocre second place finished

597
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 3: team out of Group B, which could be the US, Wales, Iran,

598
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 3: we expect even if it's England. Even if it's England,

599
00:26:56,400 --> 00:27:00,560
Speaker 3: it won't be I think that's the worst scenario, right.

600
00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 3: The worst case scenario is were getting the round of

601
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,159
Speaker 3: sixteen against England because either nether Oness slipped up in

602
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:06,360
Speaker 3: the group or England did one or the other. And

603
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:10,159
Speaker 3: even in that scenario, I think I will take my

604
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 3: chances with the Dutch because I think that they are

605
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 3: undervalued here. So they're minus one thirty to get to

606
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:17,919
Speaker 3: the quarters, they're also plus two to fifty to get

607
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 3: to the semis. You go a little further down the

608
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 3: path and you're looking at who could they potentially play

609
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 3: well the same way we talked about how England's path

610
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 3: was favorable. The Dutch could get a similar situation. They

611
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,920
Speaker 3: could get Argentina, which would not be a great matchup,

612
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 3: I don't think. But again, if you think the Dutch

613
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 3: are undervalued, which I do, and I think they're a

614
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:38,359
Speaker 3: team on the rise, then it's worth a look to

615
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:40,399
Speaker 3: make the semifinals at plus two fifty or just to

616
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 3: make the quarters at minus one thirty. I already bet

617
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:46,159
Speaker 3: the quarters one, so I will be making that my

618
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 3: official pick here, but could definitely see them going deep

619
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:51,120
Speaker 3: in this tournament.

620
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,399
Speaker 1: I'm gonna talk about Japan. They're twenty to one to

621
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 1: make the semi final. Let's say they finish in second

622
00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 1: place in their group, which is also with Germany and Spain.

623
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 1: That feels like if they do get through, it will

624
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 1: likely be in second they would take on the winner

625
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:09,160
Speaker 1: of Belgium's group, which is could be Croatia, could be Morocco,

626
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:12,159
Speaker 1: could be Belgium, no matter what. Like, I think Japan

627
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:15,639
Speaker 1: could match up pretty well there and get through, and

628
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 1: then if they win that match, likely it's most likely

629
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:23,159
Speaker 1: Portugal or Uruguay. If there's an upset Serbia or Switzerland.

630
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:26,719
Speaker 1: I mean, it's the softest part of the bracket, and

631
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:28,399
Speaker 1: that's part of the reason we're like Uruguay, right Like,

632
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,680
Speaker 1: So if you like Uruguay, if they win that group

633
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 1: and they get supplanted into this this quadrant, I think

634
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 1: Japan is worth a sprinkle as well, just based on

635
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,240
Speaker 1: the path. We talked a lot about Japan in the

636
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 1: preview pod where we went through groups E through H.

637
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 1: They should be a pretty dynamic counter attacking side. If

638
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 1: they take on Belgium in that first, you know, round

639
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 1: of sixteen match, they should match up our right against them,

640
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 1: a team that just can't defend their way out of

641
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 1: a paper bag. And it's not even worth kind of

642
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 1: you know, projecting too much further past sixteen. But Serbia, Portugal, Switzerland,

643
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 1: I'll take it. Samurai Blue, man, We're gonna be losing

644
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 1: a lot of money Sky Blues and Samurai Blue this

645
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 1: World Cup. Let's talk about some player futures. Now that's

646
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 1: out of the way. This is a reminder the last

647
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 1: World Cup, famously, Michael Leeboff nailed Luca Madrich at two

648
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 1: hundred and one to win the Golden Ball. So we'll

649
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 1: start with the Golden Ball. Let's talk about the last

650
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 1: few winners in the NHL. You never you don't win

651
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 1: playoff MVP without winning the Stanley Cup. That's not the case.

652
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 1: In the World Cup, it's a fallacy. Luca Modrits won

653
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 1: it last year. He was eliminated in the final. Messi

654
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 1: the World Cup. Before that final, Diego Fourlon out of

655
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 1: Uruguay semi final xenidin Zadan in two thousand and six,

656
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 1: even though he got kicked out of the final for

657
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 1: head budding. It was at Matt Darazzi final he was.

658
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 1: He was a runner up. Oliver Kahn, a goalkeeper, Anthony

659
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 1: He's before year time, but he was a goalkeeper for Germany.

660
00:29:58,320 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 1: They lost in the final in two thousand and two.

661
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:03,520
Speaker 1: Nineteen ninety eight, believe it was Ronaldo didn't win. You

662
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 1: have to go all the way back to nineteen ninety

663
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 1: four USA to find the last Golden Ball winner to

664
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 1: be playing for the team that won. So it's not

665
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 1: the assumption is this is going to be correlated to

666
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 1: what you know to a team going the furthest It

667
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 1: definitely helps, but it's not an automatic. I'm going to

668
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:18,960
Speaker 1: start though, and I want to start because I mentioned

669
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 1: Oliver con two thousand and two so we do see

670
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 1: we have seen a goalkeeper win it. I like Jordan

671
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 1: Pittford two hundred to one for England. Here's why I

672
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 1: like Pickford. He's a shot stopper. He's like a manic goalkeeper.

673
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 1: If he has like a big game, he's in your

674
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 1: face like it looks like you're like, wow, Jordan Pickford

675
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 1: made like seven saves today. He's diving all over the place.

676
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 1: That kind of stuff could really like generate a narrative

677
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 1: for him. And at two hundred to one for team

678
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 1: England that they were going to be playing a lot

679
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 1: of close games just given their conservative style, so we

680
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 1: could see him, you know, win them a penalty shootout

681
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 1: like he did against Columbia in the last World Cup.

682
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 1: So I think Pickford just because of the style he plays,

683
00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 1: because the team he plays for makes sense as a

684
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 1: as a goalkeeper. Long shot. I'll save my other two

685
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 1: for later. We have some agreement in this market to BJA,

686
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 1: including one of your guys.

687
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, the argument for a goalkeeper is, you know,

688
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 2: Dounorama just one player of the tournament at the Euros, right,

689
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 2: So there's you know, and like I already mentioned England.

690
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 1: And everything about the the I know this is not

691
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 1: this is little apples oranges, but the Champions League final, right,

692
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 1: who was the player everybody was talking about coming out

693
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 1: of that was Tibo Corta. It's not out of the

694
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 1: question here and right like Pickford, I guessaid. Pickford's style

695
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 1: is just so brash and he really does grab attention.

696
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 1: So that's why I think at twohunchred of one it's

697
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:35,680
Speaker 1: it's definitely worth.

698
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 2: It has nothing to do with the fact that he's

699
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 2: a toffee either. Look, he's in form yeah, yeah, he

700
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:43,480
Speaker 2: is informant. Great, he's been like the best, he's been

701
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 2: like the best goalkeeper in the Premier League, like this year,

702
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:49,040
Speaker 2: did you look a post shout? Actually plus minus anyway, Yeah,

703
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 2: I like Federikov al Verde fifty to one to win

704
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 2: Player of the Tournament. You know, if you like you know,

705
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 2: if you're like like I don't really know if I

706
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 2: like her wife fifty to one, like I mean, I

707
00:31:57,560 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 2: don't know. If I want to pay that price, well,

708
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 2: then just pay to one on Federica Alberta if you

709
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 2: really don't think they're going to win the tournament, because

710
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 2: you're not going to find a more inform midfielder that

711
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 2: can score goals, can control the middle of the park,

712
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 2: that been canting progress the ball off the pitch, and

713
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:15,240
Speaker 2: that when you watch essentially Erguay, you're like, Okay, what's

714
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 2: the reason why Ergwise you're in the semis or what's

715
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 2: the reason why Erguays made it all all the way

716
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 2: to the final? Well, it's because of Federico Valberte. I mean,

717
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 2: he has already scored what eight goals for Real Madrid

718
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 2: this season in all competitions from there always bangers too

719
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 2: from a yeah, from the defensive midfield position. So it's

720
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 2: the Luca madrech argument, right, Like Madre Chavis who was

721
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 2: on penalties for Croatia, but he won it from the

722
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 2: midfield position because of how much how well he does

723
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:41,920
Speaker 2: in controlling the play assisting others. And that's exactly what

724
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:44,719
Speaker 2: Federico Valberta can do at fifty to one. So I

725
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 2: love him at fifty to one. Another one I like

726
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 2: is Pedri at fifty to one, like one of the best, honestly,

727
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 2: one of the best young midfielders in the entire world.

728
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 2: Right now. If you think Spain's going to go deep,

729
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 2: it's probably going to because of Pedri. You know, he's

730
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 2: he's going to be starting in the midfield. He's their

731
00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 2: main attacking role, supplier, creator for everything in you know,

732
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:02,480
Speaker 2: we'll get to the Golden boot segment. But Spain doesn't

733
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:04,760
Speaker 2: have a lot of great finishers on their team, so

734
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:07,880
Speaker 2: you don't really have to worry about essentially a striker

735
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,160
Speaker 2: that's going to score, you know, five six goals in

736
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 2: this tournament might well you might have to worry about it,

737
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 2: but in case it happens. But really, you know, Pedri

738
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 2: is the one controlling the ball in the middle of

739
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 2: the pitch. He's supplying everybody. And if Spain goes deep

740
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 2: and then wins it, I believe it will be because

741
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 2: of him. And I think he is their best player

742
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 2: at fifty to one as well. And then just a

743
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 2: dart throw on Declan Rice at a one hundred to

744
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 2: one for England if they win the World Cup. You know,

745
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:30,920
Speaker 2: if you watch throughout the Euros, you say, all right,

746
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:33,480
Speaker 2: who is England's best player? Who is England's most important

747
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:35,040
Speaker 2: player on the pitch? It was honestly Deklan Rice. The

748
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 2: way he was able to control possession, control the tempo

749
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 2: of the game, stop posing counterattacks, I think at one

750
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 2: hundred to one is a fantastic price. If England's goal

751
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 2: scoring gets kind of spread out like it did at

752
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 2: the Euros where Harry Kane wasn't the one scoring all

753
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 2: the goals, you know it is Raheem Sterling scored quite

754
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 2: a bit. So if England goes deep in their goal

755
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 2: scoring gets kind of spread out like it did, that

756
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 2: definitely brings in a scenario of like you said, Michael Jordan, Pickford,

757
00:33:57,000 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 2: Jude Bellingham, a Declan Rice, someone like that to potentially

758
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 2: win the Golden Ball. So those are my three dart

759
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 2: throws to win the Golden Ball.

760
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's probably you know how you should be

761
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:09,800
Speaker 1: playing in it, right like right, Messi is a favorite

762
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 1: A's eight to one, Naymars eight to one, and bop

763
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,279
Speaker 1: Based ten to one, Benzema's twelve to one, Kevin de

764
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 1: Bruyna twelve to one, Caine sixteen to one, along with

765
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 1: Venetius Junior and then Ronald's twenty five to one. You're

766
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:22,279
Speaker 1: just gonna find a the big names are all going

767
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:24,400
Speaker 1: to be incredibly overvalued, and.

768
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 2: They're also on the best They're on the best teams

769
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:29,319
Speaker 2: right exactly, like somebody like Naymar or Harry Kane or whatever.

770
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:31,000
Speaker 2: Look at the talent they have around him, where it's

771
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 2: not like, oh my gosh, this is the guy, like

772
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:34,879
Speaker 2: he is going to be the number one focal point

773
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 2: of the team. Like there's nobody else on the team

774
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:38,839
Speaker 2: that I can even see potentially winning it, Like no,

775
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 2: like Brazil has a ton of talent, England has a

776
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 2: ton of talent. MESSI you can make an argument for,

777
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 2: but seven to one is way too short to play it,

778
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:47,760
Speaker 2: even if we don't like Argentina, So yeah, I agree

779
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 2: the other two.

780
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 1: I like Pedri, but I know you guys do too,

781
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:53,799
Speaker 1: So I wanted to just kind of move over one

782
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 1: spot and take I think Sergio Busquets at eighty to one.

783
00:34:57,080 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 1: I don't know how much he'll play, which is a

784
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 1: little concerning because he's a older but in that same

785
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:04,480
Speaker 1: kind of argument that this is a guy who's who

786
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 1: can control a game. He's so elegant when he does it.

787
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 1: Barry Luka Modric kind of style. Bet there, and I

788
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 1: like Bernardo Silva. We talked about Portugal. I'd rather bet

789
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 1: this than Portugal at fourteen to one to win the

790
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:20,720
Speaker 1: World Cup because if Portugal does go, you know, advance

791
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 1: deep into this tournament. I think Silva will play a

792
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:25,840
Speaker 1: pretty big role because I don't think it's going to

793
00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 1: be the Ronaldo show. And he's a really good underrated player.

794
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 1: I think you saw how desperately Manchester City wanted to

795
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:35,400
Speaker 1: hold on to him, So fifty to one on Silva,

796
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 1: Who's all action. He's always involved in the box. He'll

797
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 1: score if they're going, he'll be on the score sheet.

798
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 1: He'll be sending stuff up. He's a little magician. Anthony,

799
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:43,480
Speaker 1: who do you like here?

800
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, Donna Ruma was the player of the tournament at

801
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:48,920
Speaker 3: the Euros, but if a penalty shootout had gone the

802
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:51,399
Speaker 3: other way, could have been pick. I think it could

803
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:55,760
Speaker 3: have been Pedrie. Who interesting because if Spain beats Italy,

804
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 3: we're having a conversation about how And the only thing

805
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:00,440
Speaker 3: that's scary about Pedri is that he's so young that

806
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 3: he might just win young Player the tournament. They might

807
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:02,960
Speaker 3: just be like, oh, yeah, we'll give you.

808
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 1: That's I liked you and many too because and the

809
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:09,359
Speaker 1: same thing it's like, like, is he just give him?

810
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 3: Is he better at being young than yeah? You know, so,

811
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 3: same with val Verde also, right, that's the thing. The

812
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 3: thing with Spain though, is the whole narrative around Spain

813
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,799
Speaker 3: last year was it was the Petrie Show and Pedrie

814
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 3: following in the line of traditional incredibly ball playing, incredible

815
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 3: on the ball, great passing midfielders, the nes Is and

816
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 3: the Shabbies of the world, and I think it was

817
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:33,880
Speaker 3: there was I forget what match it was, but there

818
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:35,239
Speaker 3: was a match where he had like one hundred percent

819
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 3: completion rate and everybody was like, oh, my gods, will

820
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 3: consider Spain's path They could very well. They're gonna play Germany.

821
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 3: That's gonna be probably the biggest high profile match of

822
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:48,360
Speaker 3: the entire group stage. Everybody will be watching it. Narratives

823
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:51,360
Speaker 3: are built on matches people watch. If they win that

824
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:54,000
Speaker 3: in advance or if they come in second, they're very

825
00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:56,840
Speaker 3: likely to have a high profile matchup with Brazil potentially

826
00:36:56,960 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 3: or Orguay in the quarterfinals. Again, Spain Brazil will be

827
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 3: build as the two best teams potentially in the tournament,

828
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:04,279
Speaker 3: depending on how it breaks. Could also be like the

829
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 3: match of the quarterfinals, and then they get to the Semis.

830
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 3: If they just even make the final, like who on

831
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:12,400
Speaker 3: Spain outperforms him to the point where he's not in

832
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:15,400
Speaker 3: the mix. So yeah, I like Petrie a lot, so

833
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:17,080
Speaker 3: I played him fifty to one that it's the only

834
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:19,359
Speaker 3: Golden Ball ticket I probably have just because I like.

835
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 1: Spain worth a few bucks.

836
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:23,920
Speaker 3: But definitely I see the case for Pickford.

837
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 1: I think the key is to just kind of pick.

838
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 3: Build your narrative around how X team wins, and then

839
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 3: who's the player that benefits from that?

840
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 1: I agree with if it.

841
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:37,920
Speaker 3: Just goes goes deep right right England, Pickford makes the

842
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:41,120
Speaker 3: most sense because they're so conservative, and you know, Germany

843
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:42,799
Speaker 3: is an interesting case. It's hard to make the case

844
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:44,960
Speaker 3: there's going to be a player that kind of and

845
00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 3: we have not talked about them. I feel like we're

846
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:48,680
Speaker 3: almost sleeping on them by not discussing them at all.

847
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:52,359
Speaker 3: But when the German, who's the German player, I don't

848
00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:53,239
Speaker 3: even know Kimmick.

849
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 2: Like I guess Kimmick or Gundagan, right yeah, Dundagan's on penalties,

850
00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:58,720
Speaker 2: so you can make the argument there if he becomes

851
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:01,360
Speaker 2: you know, he gets a couple of scores, two penalties

852
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:04,240
Speaker 2: and dominates the midfield, and Germany gets.

853
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:07,880
Speaker 3: The final young player of the tournament, Jamal muciallat In.

854
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 3: I think he will I think he will.

855
00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 1: Start at least.

856
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 2: Germany is an interesting case because obviously of Averts.

857
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 3: And you don't know who's going to start to Yeah,

858
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 3: it's a problem.

859
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, Mueller sne and Gnarby like, yeah, where does where

860
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:22,560
Speaker 2: does he find his way into that squad? So yeah,

861
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:25,560
Speaker 2: Germany's Germany's incredibly interesting, you know team and one that

862
00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 2: like for Golden Boots, I don't really see it anybody

863
00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:32,399
Speaker 2: play anybody really because Averts has been on a bad

864
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 2: finishing form for Chelsea. So yeah, and he Warner isn't

865
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:37,440
Speaker 2: there too, which sucks because I was going to bet

866
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 2: him for Golden Boot, no doubt, and you would have lost.

867
00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:40,960
Speaker 2: I would have lost. But that's okay. We'll get to

868
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:42,319
Speaker 2: the best losing goals.

869
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 3: So we talked about Madrich. We have to give Bjay

870
00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:46,759
Speaker 3: a shout out because he gave out Patrick Shick one

871
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:48,560
Speaker 3: hundred last year heros.

872
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 2: Thank god it wasn't uh that was described as top

873
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:54,479
Speaker 2: goal scorer, not Golden Boot, because Ronaldo won Golden Boot

874
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 2: because of assists Patrick Schick. Unfortunately it's not in this tournament.

875
00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:00,720
Speaker 1: But scoring from with us in spirit.

876
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 2: He's with us in spirit, He's with us in spirit.

877
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 1: Let's talk about Golden Boot. Now. That was Golden Ball,

878
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:08,080
Speaker 1: which is given to the player of the tournament. MVP

879
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:12,759
Speaker 1: Luka Mandrich is the defending champion Golden Boot. Here the

880
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 1: odds Kane Harry Kane seven to one favorite. He won

881
00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 1: it last World Cup with six goals. Killianae Tanisia in

882
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:26,400
Speaker 1: Peru kill Is nine to one, neymar twelve, Benza my

883
00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:29,560
Speaker 1: twelfth to one, Messi twelfth to one, Christiano Ronaldo sixteen

884
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 1: to one. That's where I'll stop there. Here's the past winners,

885
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 1: Harry Kane, like I said, six, the World Cup before

886
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:39,400
Speaker 1: that was Ajamas Rodriguez Show. He won it in nailing

887
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 1: what world these and set pieces from outside the box

888
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 1: he had six. Thomas Muhler still playing, still going strong,

889
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:47,440
Speaker 1: He's got one to his name. In twenty ten he

890
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:51,839
Speaker 1: had five. His fellow German Miroslav Closa two thousand and

891
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 1: six on five. So you need five or six goals

892
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 1: basically to get there, which means you're looking for someone who, Yeah,

893
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 1: you want them to be go deep, but it's not

894
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 1: a necessity. Hamas was eliminated to the quarterfinals. So but

895
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:08,759
Speaker 1: you also want someone who's going to play one or

896
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:13,320
Speaker 1: two soft matches in their group to pad their account,

897
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:16,200
Speaker 1: much like Harry Kane I guess did back in the

898
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:19,080
Speaker 1: last World Cup Old Boots the Golden Boot. Yeah, for sure,

899
00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:22,279
Speaker 1: I think there's a few here. We're all on, you know,

900
00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:24,360
Speaker 1: b J and I really like one guy in particular.

901
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 1: We'll save him for later. I'm gonna throw two names

902
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:30,880
Speaker 1: out to start, Gabrielle Jesus thirty five to one for Brazil.

903
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 1: Ri Charleson was their striker for most of the World

904
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:38,320
Speaker 1: Cup qualify and then the Olympics, et cetera. But he's hurt.

905
00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:41,200
Speaker 1: He should be back, but who knows how much you'll play.

906
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:43,360
Speaker 1: They should score a lot in their group, right, They

907
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:46,880
Speaker 1: should dominate a group that has camera roon Serby in Switzerland.

908
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:49,600
Speaker 1: They should be scoring, you know, six or seven goals

909
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:53,360
Speaker 1: pretty easily to a game. It's like the floor. And

910
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:55,920
Speaker 1: I think Jesus is being a little underrated here because

911
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:58,719
Speaker 1: there is a wealth of scoring options I know, like

912
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:03,360
Speaker 1: neymar and Rafina, Vinnie Junior, like, they're all there, so

913
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 1: that that is a knock against the bet, but it

914
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 1: also causes the number to inflate. So I was kind

915
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 1: of going between Vinnie and Jesus, and Jesus was just

916
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 1: a bigger number. So I like the Arsenal striker here

917
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:20,719
Speaker 1: thirty five to one, another guy I like, and hell

918
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:23,239
Speaker 1: de Maria for Argentina, he's one hundred and fifty to one,

919
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:26,840
Speaker 1: and it's a similar situation where I think, like Argentina

920
00:41:26,880 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 1: should be able to just domp like he there's he's

921
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:32,879
Speaker 1: got a good chance where he'll to like bag too.

922
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:35,800
Speaker 1: In a game in the group stages Poland, Mexico Saudi Arabia,

923
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:38,120
Speaker 1: they could beat Saudi Arabia six to one and De

924
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:40,239
Speaker 1: Maria could walk away with the game ball because he

925
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:42,000
Speaker 1: got a hat trick, and you'd be like, you know,

926
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 1: would you be that surprised? I know, Leo Messi's on

927
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:48,280
Speaker 1: this team, Lottorro Martinez, like, there's a lot of scoring

928
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 1: options here too, but de Maria is one hundred and

929
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:52,879
Speaker 1: fifty to one. The numbers just too big. So those

930
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 1: are my two favorite bets on the board, outside of

931
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 1: the one that Bj'll talk about, which is my favorite

932
00:41:58,120 --> 00:41:58,439
Speaker 1: as well.

933
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:03,279
Speaker 2: Alvin Muratz fifty. If you've been if you've been with

934
00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:06,719
Speaker 2: us since the Euros, you know, God bless you, but

935
00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:10,600
Speaker 2: you know how much we loved Alva maraz at the Euros,

936
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:13,320
Speaker 2: and the argument is is that Spain was the best

937
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 2: offensive team at the Euros. They've been the best offensive

938
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:20,359
Speaker 2: team throughout euroqualifying. They're creating close to two point two

939
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:24,400
Speaker 2: expected goals per match. Luis Senrique loves himself some Malvo

940
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:26,960
Speaker 2: Marata and he's gonna be playing up top for Spain.

941
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:30,080
Speaker 2: So I get the striker on the best offensive team

942
00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:34,200
Speaker 2: in the highest scoring group in this competition. I mean

943
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:37,799
Speaker 2: Alvin Marazza. He almost won the EXG Golden Boots at

944
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:40,360
Speaker 2: the Euros. He had four point five expected goals and

945
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 2: five matches, and yeah, he struggled finishing, but guess what,

946
00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 2: He's got five goals off of three expected for Athletico

947
00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:50,320
Speaker 2: this season, so actually his finishing is starting to improve.

948
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 2: So yes, if you think Spain is going to go deep,

949
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:56,360
Speaker 2: if you like them to win the World Cup, Alva

950
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 2: Marazza at a price of fifty to one. And the

951
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 2: reason why I bet three six five is the greatest

952
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:02,640
Speaker 2: sports book in the world is you're not going to

953
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:04,919
Speaker 2: find a fifty to one anywhere else on the board

954
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 2: for Alvin Maraza. So yes, I am looking forward to

955
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:11,960
Speaker 2: watching Alvia Morata mis chance after chance and lead this

956
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:14,000
Speaker 2: tournament in next g but at fifty to one, you

957
00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:15,920
Speaker 2: have to do it, like you have to. And then

958
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:17,919
Speaker 2: a couple other dart throws, they're like uh Mina Mino

959
00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:19,880
Speaker 2: for Japan, like if Japan's going to score a lot

960
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:21,680
Speaker 2: of goals, it's going to because of Minamino. Now that

961
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:23,959
Speaker 2: for Harashi's not you know in the lineup. He scored

962
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:26,359
Speaker 2: ten goals throughout World Up qualifying, like he is their

963
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 2: their main goal scoring threat. And again, like we say

964
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:30,880
Speaker 2: with these awards, you're gonna want somebody who's on penalties.

965
00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 2: Alvin Maraza is on penalties, Minamino's on penalties for Japan,

966
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:37,840
Speaker 2: and Eke Gundigan is on penalties for Germany, Like he

967
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:41,160
Speaker 2: scored five goals throughout World Cup qualifying, and if Germany

968
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:43,000
Speaker 2: doesn't have an out and out striker or we don't

969
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:45,239
Speaker 2: really know where, who's going to score all of the

970
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:47,479
Speaker 2: goals for Germany? Like a dart throw at one hundred

971
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:49,440
Speaker 2: and fifty one on Gundagan in case Germany gets a

972
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:51,400
Speaker 2: couple penalties and maybe he scores a couple of bangers

973
00:43:51,440 --> 00:43:53,480
Speaker 2: from outside the box. It's not crazy to think that

974
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:54,880
Speaker 2: he can win at one hundred and fifty to one.

975
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 2: So the way to play Golden Boot I think for

976
00:43:56,680 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 2: this tournament is really just dart throws. I don't really

977
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 2: see any of the face like, I don't see any

978
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 2: value in taking any of the favorites here. I think

979
00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:04,239
Speaker 2: there's definitely a better path for a lot of the

980
00:44:04,239 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 2: long shots. So those are my art throws for Golden Boot.

981
00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:09,120
Speaker 1: I'll be with you on Marata. Yeah, I can be

982
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:13,120
Speaker 1: talked about. It's Pep Guardiola says he's the best player

983
00:44:13,120 --> 00:44:15,359
Speaker 1: in the world at arriving late in the box as well.

984
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, only the third man run merchant.

985
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:17,919
Speaker 1: Yeah.

986
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:20,719
Speaker 2: Argument. So the argument against gun Gan is that he

987
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:22,839
Speaker 2: has he's he plays a pretty attacking role for City.

988
00:44:22,880 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 2: Because they obviously dominant out of possession, he has to

989
00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 2: play more defensive, so Kimmich can be kind of the

990
00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:29,280
Speaker 2: balls fire and getting forward a little more. But again,

991
00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:31,880
Speaker 2: if they're gonna play Croatia and play Japan, they commit

992
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:35,120
Speaker 2: like Hansei Flick commits a ton of guys in attack,

993
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:37,279
Speaker 2: so it's not crazy to think that they're going to

994
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:39,839
Speaker 2: commit essentially five six guys up there, and he's gonna

995
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:41,800
Speaker 2: be right around the box for some of those chances,

996
00:44:41,800 --> 00:44:43,239
Speaker 2: and again you obviously get the oud of benefit of

997
00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:44,279
Speaker 2: him being on penalties too.

998
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:46,240
Speaker 3: I think we're going to need five or six goals

999
00:44:46,239 --> 00:44:49,279
Speaker 3: per game in the Spain, Germany Japan coast. We can

1000
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:50,960
Speaker 3: to cash all the tickets.

1001
00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:54,359
Speaker 2: We just adan hat trick.

1002
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:58,239
Speaker 1: You know, maybe maybe it'll be a dead heat between.

1003
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:02,480
Speaker 3: And me and m You know, I wouldn't they all

1004
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:04,879
Speaker 3: have five goals coming out of all against Costa Rica.

1005
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 3: Now I agree on the Maraza thing. The most interesting thing, okay,

1006
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:11,160
Speaker 3: so who took the most shots at Euro twenty twenty

1007
00:45:11,320 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 3: played last summer? The top five? Number one was Danny Olmo,

1008
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:19,360
Speaker 3: then it was the Italian trio in Siena a mobile.

1009
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:22,960
Speaker 3: The next person on the list after the Italian Trio

1010
00:45:23,120 --> 00:45:28,640
Speaker 3: and Danielmo and Kieza was Alvaro Marata at sixteen shots.

1011
00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:32,280
Speaker 3: He had the second most don penalty expected goals. Raz

1012
00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:34,480
Speaker 3: Sterling was number one, which I think is also interesting.

1013
00:45:35,239 --> 00:45:38,440
Speaker 3: But also you get to remember who was seventh on

1014
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:42,799
Speaker 3: the list was Braithwaite Chick. After that Gerard Moreno, who

1015
00:45:42,800 --> 00:45:45,480
Speaker 3: has not been informed and not been fit. If his

1016
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:48,920
Speaker 3: minutes go down, that only makes more room, more chances,

1017
00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:51,759
Speaker 3: more shots for Marata and you mentioned Louis Enrique and

1018
00:45:51,800 --> 00:45:53,960
Speaker 3: why he loves Marata so much. It's because Marotta is

1019
00:45:54,000 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 3: so good at everything else. It's why he's a top

1020
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:59,800
Speaker 3: class striker. He's so good at coming short, linking the play, combining.

1021
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 3: He's a ton of progressive passes. I wrote about Spain

1022
00:46:03,320 --> 00:46:06,319
Speaker 3: in our preview team by team previews, and I talked

1023
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:09,040
Speaker 3: about this. Marata does so much well that you can

1024
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:11,520
Speaker 3: get past his inconsistent finishing. Do I think he's become

1025
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:13,440
Speaker 3: a plus finisher this year? I know BJ said that no,

1026
00:46:14,040 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 3: but like you can run hot for like a week

1027
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 3: and you can win the Golden Boom, right, So.

1028
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:20,719
Speaker 2: It's fifty to one. I mean, come on, he's on

1029
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:22,360
Speaker 2: the best offensive team in this tournament.

1030
00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:25,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, So it is Marata or nothing there for me,

1031
00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:28,960
Speaker 3: i'm'm Marata. There's a couple other flyers BJ wants to

1032
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:30,520
Speaker 3: talk about it. There's one that I thought was interesting,

1033
00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:34,160
Speaker 3: which is the highest goalscorer on England at plus seven hundred.

1034
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:39,040
Speaker 3: Is an interesting flyer, and I think it's interesting for

1035
00:46:39,120 --> 00:46:45,279
Speaker 3: two reasons. One, Sterling tends to kind of come in

1036
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 3: like a two ish type.

1037
00:46:47,200 --> 00:46:48,440
Speaker 1: So England's biggest.

1038
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:51,520
Speaker 3: Problem under softgate is that I don't get enough. They

1039
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:55,520
Speaker 3: don't get enough creation, right. So Caine his instinct and

1040
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:58,120
Speaker 3: his tendency is to come short because he's such a

1041
00:46:58,160 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 3: good passer and distributor.

1042
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:00,960
Speaker 1: He comes short or.

1043
00:47:01,000 --> 00:47:04,040
Speaker 3: Comes deep rather and collects the ball away from the

1044
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:06,319
Speaker 3: goal and then the attack kind of suffers for it.

1045
00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:09,520
Speaker 3: But who benefits from that is the wide forward who

1046
00:47:09,520 --> 00:47:11,080
Speaker 3: plays to his left, which is right, which is Ryhian

1047
00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:13,440
Speaker 3: Sterling most of the time. We know he's banged on

1048
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:15,800
Speaker 3: for minutes. We know Southgate loves him. He had excellent

1049
00:47:15,880 --> 00:47:18,400
Speaker 3: numbers last summer. He's been pretty good for Chelsea this

1050
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:20,920
Speaker 3: year and I don't think there's going to be a

1051
00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:24,120
Speaker 3: ton of goals in that group, so I don't think

1052
00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:26,239
Speaker 3: there's going to be high flying action with all these

1053
00:47:26,280 --> 00:47:29,439
Speaker 3: penalties and chances for Harry Kane to get his lead.

1054
00:47:30,160 --> 00:47:33,359
Speaker 3: So at seven to one, Sterling to be England's top

1055
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:36,359
Speaker 3: goal scorer is an interesting wager that I will be

1056
00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:39,120
Speaker 3: betting because I just think that the gap between him

1057
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:42,319
Speaker 3: and Sterling and Kane is not as big in a

1058
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:44,600
Speaker 3: group where you're not expecting a ton of wide open

1059
00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:49,280
Speaker 3: goal scoring and penalties. So that's my potential angle there.

1060
00:47:50,160 --> 00:47:53,880
Speaker 1: Bjay anything else for you in these kind of derivative

1061
00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:55,680
Speaker 1: markets to the goal boot.

1062
00:47:55,480 --> 00:47:57,799
Speaker 2: Put me down for ekegun Gun top goal scorer for

1063
00:47:57,840 --> 00:47:58,480
Speaker 2: Germany as well.

1064
00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:02,040
Speaker 1: Lovely stuff, gentlemen. All right, that will wrap up our

1065
00:48:02,520 --> 00:48:05,560
Speaker 1: tournament futures preview. A reminder you can listen to our

1066
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:08,000
Speaker 1: group Deep Dives A through D and then A through

1067
00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:10,719
Speaker 1: H as well on a wonderful channel. Will also have

1068
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:15,680
Speaker 1: a special episode just looking at Team USA from a

1069
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:20,600
Speaker 1: market perspective, their chances, et cetera later on this week,

1070
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:25,360
Speaker 1: but until then for b J Cunningham, for Anthony Dubundo,

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Speaker 1: Michael Lieboff saying best of luck with all your bets