1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:05,960 Speaker 1: M This is Mesters in Business with Very Results on 2 00:00:06,200 --> 00:00:11,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. This week on the podcast, I have an 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:16,320 Speaker 1: extra special and fascinating guests. His name is David McCraney 4 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 1: and he is a science journalist and author. I first 5 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:25,280 Speaker 1: came to know David's work through his blog and book 6 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:28,520 Speaker 1: You Are Not So Smart, which was a fun review 7 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 1: of all of the cognitive foibles and behavioral errors we 8 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 1: all make. But it turns out that David was looking 9 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:41,520 Speaker 1: at how people change their minds, how you persuade people, 10 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 1: and he thought the answer was found in all of 11 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:49,080 Speaker 1: these cognitive errors. And if you could only alert people 12 00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 1: to the mistakes they were making, whether it be fact 13 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 1: checks or just showing them their biases uh and the 14 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: heuristics they use and the rules of thumb they use 15 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 1: that we're wrong, hey would come around and see the light. 16 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 1: And as it turns out, that approach is all wrong, 17 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 1: and his mia culpa is essentially this book How Minds Change. 18 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:15,320 Speaker 1: It turns out that persuading people about their fundamental beliefs 19 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 1: involves a very very specific set of steps, starting with 20 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:22,640 Speaker 1: they have to want to change. They have to be 21 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 1: willing to change, which only occurs when people come to 22 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 1: the realization that they believe something for perhaps reasons that 23 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:36,319 Speaker 1: aren't very good, and it's a process, it's an exploration. 24 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:41,400 Speaker 1: It's fascinating the people he's met with and discussed, whether 25 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 1: it's deep canvassing or street epistemology, or some of the 26 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 1: other methodologies that are used to persuade people that some 27 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: of their really controversial political beliefs are wrong. He's met 28 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 1: with various people from all everything from flat Arthur's to 29 00:01:56,920 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: antivactors to the folks who have left the Westboro Baptist Church, 30 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: a pretty notorious and controversial institution. I found this conversation 31 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:11,680 Speaker 1: really to be tremendous and fascinating, and I think you 32 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 1: will also. With no further ado, my interview with David McRaney. Well, 33 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 1: I've been a fan of your work and I thought 34 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:21,920 Speaker 1: when this book came out it was a great opportunity 35 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 1: to sit down and have a conversation with you. Before 36 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 1: we get to the book, let's talk a little bit 37 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 1: about your background. You started as a reporter covering everything 38 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 1: from Hurricane Katrina, test rockets for NASA, Halfway Home for 39 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:39,639 Speaker 1: homeless people with HIV. What led you to becoming focused 40 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 1: on behavior in psychology. Well, I thought that's what I 41 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 1: was gonna do for a living. I was. I went 42 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 1: to school to university to study psychology. I thought it 43 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: would be a therapist, got that degree. But then as 44 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:53,800 Speaker 1: I was doing that, uh, there was a sign up 45 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 1: on campus that said opinionated in big helvetica font and 46 00:02:57,360 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 1: I was like, yeah, I am that would mean that 47 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:01,079 Speaker 1: seems what is that? And said, you know, come down 48 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:03,160 Speaker 1: to the offices of the student newspaper. I went down 49 00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:05,080 Speaker 1: there and said, how does this work? They said, just 50 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 1: email us stuff. You have an opinions piece you want 51 00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:10,080 Speaker 1: to do. I'm like m and I I wrote a 52 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: really like uh sophomore thing about Starbucks on campus because 53 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 1: it was just about to come into campus. And I 54 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:17,359 Speaker 1: wrote that and wrote a couple of things. And then 55 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 1: there was a study that had just recently come out, 56 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 1: and who knows if it's replicated or stood the test 57 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 1: of time, but it was when your favorite sports team loses, 58 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 1: men's sperm counts go down. And I thought, our team 59 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 1: at our school had lost every single game that year 60 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 1: so far? What does that mean for the future progeny alumni? 61 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:39,680 Speaker 1: That's right? And I thought it would be a great 62 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 1: headline that would be funny. And the headline I wrote was, 63 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 1: you know, evidence suggests the sperm counts reach record lows 64 00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:49,520 Speaker 1: on campus. And uh one of my professors laughed about 65 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 1: it and asked the whole class that they had read it, 66 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 1: but they didn't know that I was in the class. 67 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 1: And I was like, oh, way, this could be fun 68 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 1: So I switched to journalism, and you know, went all 69 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 1: the way through the student paper and then went into 70 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 1: print journalism and TV journalist. But I once I've reached 71 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 1: a certain point in that world, I wasn't able to 72 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: write anymore. I was doing editing and helping other people, 73 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 1: and I just really wanted to write something. And it 74 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 1: just happened blogs were becoming very popular that time. Uh 75 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 1: my dad says, and uh others that were like, oh, 76 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:18,800 Speaker 1: that's way later. I'm thinking back to uh Yahoo's geo 77 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 1: cities and ye world. I mean, I'm I'm the o 78 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 1: G when it comes to blogging, go way way back. 79 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 1: I just happened to be there when they blew up 80 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:27,600 Speaker 1: on the point of like they got book deals and 81 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 1: I started a blog called you Were Not So Smart 82 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 1: about all the cognitive biases and fallacies and heroistics that 83 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:35,159 Speaker 1: I really enjoyed, and I wrote a piece about brand 84 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 1: loyalty that went viral and the rest is history. That 85 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 1: was asked to write a book about it, and then 86 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:43,559 Speaker 1: I was like, oh, I will continue playing in this world. 87 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 1: But I started. I started the podcast to promote the 88 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:47,720 Speaker 1: second book because the first book did so well. They said, 89 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:49,359 Speaker 1: and do another really quickly, and I did, you are 90 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 1: less dumb now? You are now less dumb yet? And 91 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:54,159 Speaker 1: I just so happened to start a podcast right when 92 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 1: podcasts were becoming a thing. I sent an email to 93 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:57,920 Speaker 1: Mark Mayren because he had the number one podcast. I said, 94 00:04:57,920 --> 00:04:59,280 Speaker 1: how do you do this? And he actually sent me 95 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 1: an email with a a point really h like each 96 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 1: with links to Amazon items and no kidding, and he 97 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 1: was very nice. And I got all this stuff and 98 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:11,599 Speaker 1: started it up, and that has now becomes from the centerpiece, 99 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:13,479 Speaker 1: because that's uh, I was there when I got going. 100 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:18,239 Speaker 1: My My pitch for this podcast was WTF meets Charlie Rose, 101 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:22,360 Speaker 1: and nobody knew what w TF was. I mean, they 102 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 1: didn't know the acronym, nor did they know the podcast. 103 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: Because you know, you have to be a little bit 104 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:30,160 Speaker 1: of a comedy junkie to have found that in the 105 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:34,040 Speaker 1: early days. Later on it was ubiquitous. So sticking with 106 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 1: journalism when you were still writing, you seem to have 107 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 1: covered some really unusual and interesting stories. Tell us about 108 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 1: one of the more surprising things that you covered. I 109 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 1: always wanted to do feature pieces. That was the world 110 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 1: that I loved, and that was always in journalism school 111 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:51,720 Speaker 1: and you know, uh, Frank Sinatra has a cold, electricoli 112 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 1: ascid test. I just wanted to write features. I wanted 113 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 1: to be there in person and and like tell you 114 00:05:56,720 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 1: explore humanity from the inside out my way and I 115 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 1: the Halfway Home for HIV positive men for homeless people 116 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:05,880 Speaker 1: in the Deep South. That was a real turning point 117 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:07,919 Speaker 1: for me because there's uh. I had to spend about 118 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:09,839 Speaker 1: three weeks on that story, and I visited all the 119 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:12,479 Speaker 1: different people, went to all the different meetings, and the 120 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,040 Speaker 1: homelessness is very invisible in the Deep South. They often live, 121 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 1: uh in the woods. You know, they're looking for us 122 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 1: and they there's a lot of people in the Deep South. 123 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 1: I don't think there is a homeless problem. And that 124 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 1: was a really interesting way to break that story into 125 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:27,479 Speaker 1: the public. You know, consciousness of no, no, there's a 126 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 1: problem here. It's just hidden from you in a very 127 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 1: particular way, and a lot of people aren't even wear 128 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 1: their organizations that dealt with that, and that really show 129 00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:36,240 Speaker 1: me this is the world I want to be and 130 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:37,600 Speaker 1: this kind of stuff I want to do. So I'm 131 00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:41,440 Speaker 1: picking up a theme in both your writing columns and books, 132 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 1: which is there's a problem you don't know about it. 133 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:48,080 Speaker 1: It's hidden, and here it is. That's the whole thing, 134 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 1: Like hidden worlds are it for me? Like I grew 135 00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:51,640 Speaker 1: up in a trailer in the woods in the Deep South, 136 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 1: and as an only child, I was always searching for 137 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:56,360 Speaker 1: the others. I didn't know how I was going to 138 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:58,680 Speaker 1: get there, and once I got at a hand was 139 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 1: extended into this stage. It's all I want to do. 140 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 1: Like I call him taramissoum moments because I remember the 141 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:07,839 Speaker 1: first time you had tarremsa I was I went to. 142 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 1: It was when I was still in the working for 143 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 1: a TV station. We had a little conference where people 144 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 1: in my position went and we went there and we 145 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 1: got tarmiseu as a dessert and I remember took a 146 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: bite of it and I was like, oh my god, 147 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 1: this is so damn good. What what is this, and 148 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 1: everyone there was like, uh, it's Tarmissus, And I was like, 149 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 1: oh yeah, yeah, termisous loved the stuff and and but 150 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 1: that's it. That's what I'm pursuing now. I want more 151 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 1: of those things. I didn't know. I didn't know. You know, 152 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 1: that's really quite interesting. So I guess it's kind of 153 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 1: natural that you evolve towards behavior and cognitive issues. I 154 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:42,320 Speaker 1: was going to ask you what led to it, but 155 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 1: it seems like that's something you've been driving for your 156 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 1: whole career. Yeah, it's a unity through humility. It's it's 157 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:51,440 Speaker 1: we're all absolutely stumbling and fumbling in the dark and 158 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 1: pretending like we're we know we're up to even here 159 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 1: in these fantastic, you know, bloomberg offices, like uh. The 160 00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 1: thing I want to avoid is the sense that I've 161 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 1: got it all figured out. And there are massive domains 162 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 1: in psychology, neuroscience, and other social sciences that just start 163 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 1: from that place and then investigate it. And I find 164 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:11,520 Speaker 1: that when I discover these things that we all share 165 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 1: that should give us a pause, should cause us to 166 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 1: feel humility. I feel like I'm in the right spot, 167 00:08:17,440 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 1: and I want to like dig deeper into those places 168 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 1: and reveal them so we can all be on the 169 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: same page that way. So blind spots, unknown unknowns, things 170 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 1: that we are just clearly clueless about, and the biases 171 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 1: that they're When I started out, things like confirmation bias, 172 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:33,360 Speaker 1: wasn't you know there wasn't as just the tip of 173 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:35,640 Speaker 1: the tongue as it is now and survivorship bias, things 174 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:39,559 Speaker 1: like that. So I noticed in this book nothing written 175 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 1: about Dunning Krueger, nothing about Chaldoni's persuasion. Is that a 176 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:49,600 Speaker 1: different approach to decision making and psychology? Like or because 177 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 1: I always assume there would be a little bit of 178 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 1: an overlap there, I didn't want to retread anything there. 179 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:57,079 Speaker 1: There's some foundational stuff that I do talk about in 180 00:08:57,080 --> 00:08:59,200 Speaker 1: the book that feel like you can never not talk about, 181 00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:02,479 Speaker 1: some which go back a century and like the introspection 182 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 1: illusion has to always be uh talked about. We don't 183 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:08,000 Speaker 1: know the antecedence to our thoughts, feelings, behaviors, but we 184 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 1: are very good at creating narratives to explain ourselves to ourselves. 185 00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 1: And if you always have to mention that in any 186 00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 1: book about this topic, as far as concern and so 187 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 1: there's a little bit of that. But like Dunning, Krueger 188 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:21,200 Speaker 1: and uh all the other big heavy hitters, I definitely 189 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:22,840 Speaker 1: did not want to write How to Win Friends and 190 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:25,679 Speaker 1: Influence People, Part Two because I wanted to come from 191 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 1: a very different perspective on all this, and I didn't 192 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 1: want it to be a book specifically about persuasion, because 193 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: I don't even start talking about actual persuasion techniques still 194 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 1: about page two hundred, Like, I show you people who 195 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:37,080 Speaker 1: are doing things that could be labeled as persuasion techniques, 196 00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:38,520 Speaker 1: but I don't get into the like the science of 197 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 1: it till later. Other you mentioned Dunning Krueger. I I 198 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:44,960 Speaker 1: just recently spent some time with Old Dunning, Professor David 199 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 1: Dunning he um a former guest on the show. I 200 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 1: don't think he's that old. I think, yeah, I say 201 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 1: old in the chow me pat you on the back 202 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 1: cut of right he Uh. I keep asking to come 203 00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 1: back on the show, but he's working on a new 204 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:58,679 Speaker 1: project and he's a new book on Dunning Crew. Yeah. Yeah, 205 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 1: because you know that a lot of people has been 206 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:02,559 Speaker 1: all these people who want to knock it down and 207 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:04,959 Speaker 1: and he's there have been attempts, but none have really 208 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 1: landed a blow. So we helped him out, or he 209 00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:09,560 Speaker 1: helped us out. My good friend Johansson has a YouTube 210 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:12,720 Speaker 1: channel and uh it does explore different science Stuff's called 211 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 1: be Smart, and we were talking about that recently. There 212 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:17,760 Speaker 1: was a story about someone who, uh, the pilot you 213 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:20,280 Speaker 1: went unconscious and they've landed the airplane but they got 214 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 1: help from the tower. And we were talking about that 215 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 1: and I was like, I feel like I could land 216 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 1: an airplane based off all my video game experience, and 217 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 1: Joe said he thought he could too, and I said, 218 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 1: this has got to be done in Kruger, right, And 219 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:34,640 Speaker 1: I said it would be cool if you did a 220 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:38,599 Speaker 1: video where you got into like one of those commercial 221 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:41,600 Speaker 1: commercial flight simulator and they just said, yeah, I try, 222 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 1: go ahead, land knock yourself. And so he got I 223 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:46,960 Speaker 1: get I got him in touch with Dunning, and Dunning 224 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:49,439 Speaker 1: was like, I can't wait to be part of this project. 225 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 1: So he both interviews back and forth with Dunning before 226 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 1: and after, and of course he gets in the simulator 227 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 1: and they hand him the controls and they say, okay, landed, 228 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:59,079 Speaker 1: and of course he crashed. And you crashed it three times. 229 00:10:58,920 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 1: That's impressive, you know. Even David Dunning tells a wonderful 230 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:07,880 Speaker 1: story about they never expected the research paper Dunning Krueger 231 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 1: on metacognition to explode. And he goes, I never thought 232 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 1: about trademarking it. He goes, go on, go on Amazon. 233 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 1: You'll see Dunning Krueger University shirts, key chains, all sorts 234 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:21,320 Speaker 1: of stuff. He goes, there's a million dollars there. I 235 00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:23,559 Speaker 1: just had no experience in that, and I got a 236 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:28,679 Speaker 1: little Dunning crugerd did not did not think about the 237 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:31,400 Speaker 1: commercial side of it. So there's a quote I want 238 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:34,959 Speaker 1: to share because it sets up everything. Uh, and I'm 239 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:37,200 Speaker 1: I'm sort of cheating. It's from towards the end of 240 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 1: the book. We do this because we are social primates 241 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:43,880 Speaker 1: who gather information in a bias manner for the purpose 242 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 1: of arguing for our individual perspectives in a pooled information 243 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 1: environment within a group that deliberates on shared plans of 244 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:58,720 Speaker 1: actions towards a collective goal. Kind of sums up everything 245 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:01,440 Speaker 1: we do in a US. That was a lot of work, 246 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 1: with years of work within that little little that A 247 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:07,319 Speaker 1: lot of that comes from something that's called the interactions model. Uh. 248 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:09,080 Speaker 1: They're sort of a peanut butter and chocolate have come 249 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 1: up and in this book because I've spent years talking 250 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 1: to people through you are not so smart, and I 251 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:17,040 Speaker 1: would argue that we're flawed and irrational, right, And that 252 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:19,559 Speaker 1: was there was a big pop psychology movement for that 253 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 1: about a decade ago, things like predictably Irrational and uh, 254 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:26,800 Speaker 1: even the work of Knomen Diversky, like a lot of 255 00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 1: the like interpretation of that was like, oh, look how 256 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:31,839 Speaker 1: dumb we are, right, and look how easily fooled we're 257 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:35,040 Speaker 1: Look how bad we were probabilities. And one of the 258 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:37,320 Speaker 1: incepting moments of this book was I did a lecture 259 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:40,480 Speaker 1: and somebody came up to me afterwards. Her father was 260 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:42,400 Speaker 1: had slipped into a conspiracy theory, and she asked, what 261 00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:45,160 Speaker 1: do I do about that? And I told her nothing 262 00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 1: like but I felt gross saying it. I felt like 263 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 1: I was locking my keys in my car. I felt like, 264 00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 1: I think I know enough to tell you that, but 265 00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:55,439 Speaker 1: I know I don't. And also I don't want to 266 00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:58,120 Speaker 1: be that that pessimistic and centicle. And at the same time, 267 00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:01,080 Speaker 1: the attitudes and norms on same sex marriage the United 268 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 1: States had flipped like very rapidly, We're that. So those 269 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 1: two things together I was like, I would I want 270 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:10,000 Speaker 1: to understand this better. So I invited on my podcast 271 00:13:10,040 --> 00:13:12,559 Speaker 1: Hugo mercy A and he teamed up with Dan Sperber 272 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 1: and they created something called the interactions model, which is 273 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:16,319 Speaker 1: a model that I only want to talk to them about, 274 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 1: you know, changing minds, arguing, and it opened up this 275 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:22,000 Speaker 1: whole world and through them, I also met with Tom Stafford, 276 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 1: and there's the interactionist model, and there's the truth wind scenario, 277 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:27,079 Speaker 1: and those are sort of a peanut butter and chocolate 278 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 1: my come up. And it's because instead of looking at 279 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:30,679 Speaker 1: people as being flawed in irrational, alsa is just as 280 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:34,320 Speaker 1: biased and lazy, which is different. And what you're just 281 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 1: talking about what that paragraph is about the interactionist model, 282 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:39,559 Speaker 1: which is uh, A lot of the research that went 283 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 1: into all those books from about a decade ago. They 284 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 1: were pulling from studies that were done on individuals and isolation. 285 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 1: And then when you pool all of their conclusions together 286 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 1: and you treat people as a group of people based 287 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:55,560 Speaker 1: off that research, we do look kind of flawed, right, 288 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:57,960 Speaker 1: we do look very irrational. But if you take that 289 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,760 Speaker 1: exact same research and you allow people to do liberating groups, 290 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:05,240 Speaker 1: you get much different reactions, much different responses, and that's 291 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:07,320 Speaker 1: been furthered by the work of Tom Stafford. He's been 292 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:09,680 Speaker 1: taking some of the old stuff from those old studies 293 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:13,560 Speaker 1: and putting them to groups and even creating um social 294 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:17,680 Speaker 1: media similarcrooms that work like Twitter and Facebook and stuff, 295 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 1: but have a totally different context, allows people to deliberate 296 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:23,720 Speaker 1: and argue in different ways and you get much different results. 297 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 1: You get better results were much. A good example of 298 00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 1: that is like, uh, you take something from the common 299 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:30,800 Speaker 1: reflection task or something like a I'll make it real 300 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:32,800 Speaker 1: simple so we don't have to like do any weird 301 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:34,400 Speaker 1: math in their heads. Like you're running a race and 302 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 1: you pass the person in second place, what place you in? 303 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 1: And you know the intuitive answer You're start trying to 304 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 1: work it out in your head. But the answer one 305 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 1: if you like lean back, is well I replaced second place. 306 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:46,600 Speaker 1: I'm in second place. But if you ask people individually 307 00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:48,760 Speaker 1: you get a pretty high response fade where they get 308 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:51,320 Speaker 1: the wrong answer. But if you take that exact same 309 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:53,840 Speaker 1: question and you pose it to a group of people 310 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:56,440 Speaker 1: and I do some lectures now and you say, Okay, 311 00:14:56,720 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 1: I'm gonna ask this question, keep the answer to yourself. Now, 312 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 1: does anyone to have the right answer. You know you 313 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:03,680 Speaker 1: have the right answer. Raise your hand. Somebody raised their hand. 314 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 1: I say, okay, what's the answer. They give you the answer. 315 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 1: Then you say, explain your reasoning, and then they explain 316 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 1: the reasoning. When they give their answer, there will be 317 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 1: a grumble on the crowd. When they explain the reasoning 318 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 1: behind it, the crowd goes, Okay. Now, if you took 319 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 1: everyone's individual answer and pulled it together, you'd be like, wow, 320 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 1: this group got their wrong answer. But if you allow 321 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:24,680 Speaker 1: that deliberation moment to take place where I explain how 322 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 1: reasoning to you, you get a group of people who 323 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 1: would go from eight percent in correct correct. And we 324 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:31,800 Speaker 1: really set up for that. And the interactionist model is 325 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 1: all about this the work of Humorocity and Dan Spur 326 00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:35,600 Speaker 1: really have a great book about this, called The Enigma 327 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 1: of Reason. It's a it's not a light read, it's 328 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:40,840 Speaker 1: really sort of you know, academic, but it's great because 329 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 1: they found, looking through the old research and their own 330 00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:47,040 Speaker 1: new research, that we have two cognitive systems, one for 331 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 1: producing arguments, one for evaluating arguments, and the one that 332 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 1: produces arguments does it very lazily and very in a 333 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 1: very biased manner. You can think of it like you 334 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 1: ask where do you want to go eat? And you know, 335 00:15:57,200 --> 00:15:58,880 Speaker 1: I have three or four people after a movie like 336 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:01,640 Speaker 1: hanging out in the lobby like I wanna I want 337 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 1: to go here, I want to go here, I want 338 00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 1: to go here, and UH they have biased reasons for that. 339 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 1: One person's says, hey, let's go get sushi, and the 340 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 1: somebody's like, we're over here and on my ex work there, 341 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 1: or or I someone to say I had sushi yesterday, 342 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:16,160 Speaker 1: or I don't like sushi. That you can't predict what 343 00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 1: are going to be the counter argument, so you to 344 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 1: present your most biased and lazy argument up front, and 345 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 1: you let the deliberation take place in the pooled UH 346 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 1: evaluation process. You all flow the cognitive labor to that 347 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 1: we're all familiar with doing that. Everyone has their ideas, 348 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 1: You trade back and forth, and we decide on the 349 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:34,360 Speaker 1: group goal on the plan, which is what this evolved 350 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:36,080 Speaker 1: to do. But we are also very familiar with the 351 00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 1: way that plays out on the internet, which is not 352 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:40,080 Speaker 1: good for an AUC is removed and you don't get 353 00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:42,720 Speaker 1: the same social cues coming right, So you get like, 354 00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:46,080 Speaker 1: let's say, my good friend Alistair Croll, who runs conferences. 355 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:47,600 Speaker 1: He put it to me like this. He's like, on 356 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:50,320 Speaker 1: the Internet, when you say, uh, I want a grilled 357 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 1: cheese sandwich, Uh, it's not an argument for for who 358 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 1: wants grilled cheese sandwiches? Should we get grilled cheese sandwiches 359 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:58,840 Speaker 1: anywhere else? Agree with me? On the Internet, on most 360 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:01,200 Speaker 1: of the platforms we use today, it's saying I want 361 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:03,000 Speaker 1: grilled cheese sandwiches. Who wants to go with me to 362 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:05,879 Speaker 1: the grilled cheese sandwich room? And so everyone who agrees 363 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:07,600 Speaker 1: with that position and is already like, yeah, that's what 364 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 1: I want to they get pulled off into a community 365 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:12,719 Speaker 1: of people who want this and then a whole new 366 00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:14,520 Speaker 1: set of psychological act that was going to play, which 367 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 1: is all about being a social primate and being a community. 368 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:20,600 Speaker 1: So there's no iteration, there's no debate, there's no consensus 369 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:24,600 Speaker 1: forming as to what the best solution to that problem is. 370 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 1: You just have some salient issue and people form of 371 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,000 Speaker 1: what looks like madness or what looks like some sort 372 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,480 Speaker 1: of nefarious thing going down. One of the things that 373 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 1: the Internet gives us is the ability to group up 374 00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:40,000 Speaker 1: very quickly, and we are social prime rates. If we 375 00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:42,840 Speaker 1: go into a group, we start being worried about motivations 376 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:44,320 Speaker 1: like I want to be a good member of my group, 377 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:46,160 Speaker 1: I want to be to be considered a trustworthy member 378 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:48,639 Speaker 1: of my group, and so on, and you get a 379 00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:50,679 Speaker 1: lot of weird stuff we see today that that falls 380 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 1: into the domain of being polarized or being in a 381 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:55,440 Speaker 1: system where everyone is. If you have in a group 382 00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 1: people who agree with you in your current position, it's 383 00:17:57,160 --> 00:17:58,639 Speaker 1: very difficult to argue out of it because I can 384 00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 1: always fall back to them from back and so that 385 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:02,760 Speaker 1: that's some of the stuff that goes into that paragraph, 386 00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:04,960 Speaker 1: and it gets more complicated from there. But yeah, it's 387 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:06,919 Speaker 1: that was very illuminating to me, and a lot of 388 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 1: the new material in this book relates back to it. 389 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:13,480 Speaker 1: Not that the earlier books were wrong or incorrect in anyway, 390 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:15,439 Speaker 1: but I kind of took this as a little bit 391 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:19,359 Speaker 1: of a mia Kalpa in terms of, hey, I was 392 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:23,240 Speaker 1: focusing on one area, but really we need to focus 393 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 1: on a broader area in terms of not just why 394 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:30,480 Speaker 1: we make these cognitive eras, but how you can change 395 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:35,080 Speaker 1: somebody's mind who's trapped in some heuristic or other cognitive 396 00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 1: problem that is leading them the wrong life. I did 397 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 1: not intend for this to be like some sort of 398 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 1: marketing phrase or trick, but it's the truth. But I 399 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 1: in writing a book of how Minds Change, I changed 400 00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 1: my mind on a lot of stuff that I was 401 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 1: like depending on for like my career, and I'm happy 402 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:51,960 Speaker 1: to do that. It feels really great to be on 403 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:53,400 Speaker 1: the other side of some of these things and see 404 00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:55,800 Speaker 1: it more clearly and more, you know, more dimensionality to it. 405 00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:59,399 Speaker 1: So let's talk a little bit about the blog that 406 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:01,879 Speaker 1: led to the books that really put you on the map. 407 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 1: You are not so smart? Um. I love the title 408 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,480 Speaker 1: of this Why you have too many friends on Facebook? 409 00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:12,680 Speaker 1: Why your memory is mostly fiction? And forty six other 410 00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:16,000 Speaker 1: ways you're deluding yourself? Was there were there forty six chapters? 411 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 1: Was that just a random No? That was that was 412 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 1: exactly how many things are exploring in the book. Yeah, 413 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:23,960 Speaker 1: that's that's great. So we already discussed what led you 414 00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:27,399 Speaker 1: to this area of research. Why did you decide to 415 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:30,879 Speaker 1: go from blogging, which is easy in short form, to 416 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,640 Speaker 1: writing a book, which anyone who has done it will 417 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:35,480 Speaker 1: tell you it can be a bit of a slog 418 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:38,600 Speaker 1: It was. Here's how that happened. I was just blogging 419 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:40,119 Speaker 1: away back in the early days, and maybe you had 420 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:43,280 Speaker 1: a thousand people reading my stuff. And that was back 421 00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:45,159 Speaker 1: way before medium and Twitter and any other way to 422 00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:48,359 Speaker 1: get your stuff out there. And when did you launch? 423 00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:54,520 Speaker 1: You are not so smart. I got into an argument 424 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 1: two of my friends about what was better the PlayStation 425 00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 1: three of the Xbox three six. We got so mad 426 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 1: at each other that it was like I might not 427 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:04,399 Speaker 1: be able to like hang out with them. And this 428 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 1: isn't a political Trump versus Biden debate. This is yeah, 429 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 1: but it's just the same psychology. And I couldn't get over, like, 430 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 1: why would I get mad about this? It's just a 431 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:23,159 Speaker 1: box of wires and uh. And I, since I had 432 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:26,280 Speaker 1: a background in psychology, I went and I had access 433 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:28,439 Speaker 1: to the university library. I was I just was like, 434 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:30,639 Speaker 1: there's got to be some material about this. And I 435 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 1: found a bunch of material and brand loyalty and identification 436 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:36,200 Speaker 1: and group identity, and I wrote a little blog about it, 437 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 1: but I framed it as Apple versus PC. That we 438 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:41,359 Speaker 1: mean those commercials were oute right there. And at that 439 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:46,399 Speaker 1: time the blog Gizmoto had stolen the iPhone prototype. I 440 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,399 Speaker 1: recall that, and like Steve Jobs, and they didn't steal it. 441 00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:52,520 Speaker 1: They found it in a bar. Found they found it 442 00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:55,480 Speaker 1: in a bar, and uh, Steve Jobs sent them emails says, 443 00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:58,320 Speaker 1: give me back my iPhone and they just they just 444 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 1: went for the hits and they super viral. And I 445 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: just assumed they had like a Google alert for stuff 446 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:06,800 Speaker 1: written about Apple stuff. And I got an email said 447 00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:09,520 Speaker 1: can we reblog your blog post on this? And I 448 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 1: was like, yeah, sure, And I went from a thousand 449 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 1: to two hundred and fifty thousand people, and I was like, oh, 450 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:15,480 Speaker 1: I should write a bunch of stuff on And so 451 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,200 Speaker 1: that week I just started going like things in that 452 00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:19,920 Speaker 1: sort of area, and I wrote a lot more things 453 00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 1: about like I learned helplessness and other issues, and I 454 00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:26,240 Speaker 1: had an audience and it and it was maybe four 455 00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:28,639 Speaker 1: months later. An agent reached out who had worked on 456 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:30,920 Speaker 1: pre economics and said, I think this could be a book. 457 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 1: And she still my age. I actually met with her 458 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:35,160 Speaker 1: two days. If I'm in town, I want to always 459 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:37,120 Speaker 1: try to meet with because she changed my life. Alan 460 00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:40,400 Speaker 1: Bar amazing human being. And uh we turned it into 461 00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:42,720 Speaker 1: a book, and about half of it was already in 462 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 1: blog form. I wrote the rest of it for the 463 00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:47,239 Speaker 1: book and that book just really took off, like it's 464 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:49,880 Speaker 1: still even today. It's like in nineteen different languages. It's 465 00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:51,439 Speaker 1: something every once in a while to beating number one 466 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 1: in a different country. It was recently number one in Vietnam. 467 00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:56,359 Speaker 1: Well that's how I went from blog to book world. 468 00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:58,200 Speaker 1: But then they were like, hey, could you write another book? 469 00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:01,440 Speaker 1: And I said, I sure can, and uh, I wanted 470 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:04,560 Speaker 1: to promote it. And at that time, podcasting had just 471 00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:06,919 Speaker 1: become a thing. I was listening to Radio Lab and 472 00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 1: This American Life, and uh, I was like you, I 473 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 1: was listening to WTF and I said, I can. I 474 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:14,399 Speaker 1: want to do something like that, and I just started 475 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:17,280 Speaker 1: up the podcast to promote it. And it just turned 476 00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:19,560 Speaker 1: out that the podcast was really where I could actually 477 00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 1: explore this stuff, and I jumped into it. So so 478 00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:25,240 Speaker 1: there is a quote. I think this might be from 479 00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:27,159 Speaker 1: the back of the book. So I don't know if 480 00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:31,200 Speaker 1: this is your words or a Blurbu'm stealing, but quote. 481 00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,320 Speaker 1: There's a growing body of work coming out of psychology 482 00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:37,800 Speaker 1: and cognitive science that says you have no clue why 483 00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:40,760 Speaker 1: you act the way you do, choose the things you choose, 484 00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:46,439 Speaker 1: or think the thoughts you think that's got the introspecting illusion, 485 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:48,560 Speaker 1: and it's been a real centerpiece of my work for 486 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,520 Speaker 1: a long time. We don't have access to the antecedents 487 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:54,879 Speaker 1: of our thoughts, feelings, and behaviors, but we do have thoughts, 488 00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:58,240 Speaker 1: feelings of behaviors that requires some kind of explanation, and 489 00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:00,760 Speaker 1: we are very good at coming up with these post 490 00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:04,560 Speaker 1: hoc ad hawk rationalizations and justifications for what we're doing, 491 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,880 Speaker 1: and those eventually become a narrative that we live by. 492 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,520 Speaker 1: It becomes sort of the character we portray, and we 493 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:12,639 Speaker 1: end up being an unreliable narrator in the story of 494 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:14,840 Speaker 1: our own lives. And so the two it's like a 495 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,600 Speaker 1: one two punch of you're unaware of how unaware you are, 496 00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:20,119 Speaker 1: and that leads you to being the unreliable narrator in 497 00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:23,920 Speaker 1: the story of your life. And that's fine, Like this 498 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 1: is something that is adaptive in most situations. But there's 499 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:29,480 Speaker 1: when we get into some complex stuff like you know, politics, 500 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,800 Speaker 1: running a business, designing an airplane. You should know about 501 00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:34,600 Speaker 1: some of these things because they'll get you into some 502 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:36,600 Speaker 1: trouble that we never got into, you know, a hundred 503 00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:40,080 Speaker 1: thousand years ago. So a lot of this is evolutionary 504 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 1: baggage that we carry forward. But you touched on two 505 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:47,439 Speaker 1: of my favorite biases. One is the narrative fallacy that 506 00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:51,240 Speaker 1: we create these stories to explain what we're doing, as 507 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:55,960 Speaker 1: well as hindsight bias, where after something happens, of course 508 00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:58,159 Speaker 1: we that was going to happen, We saw it coming. 509 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 1: Tell us about those two dies, well, they're the fallacy. 510 00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:04,040 Speaker 1: I love this. My good friend Will Store, who writes, um, 511 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:07,080 Speaker 1: it's a question I have for you love enemies of science. 512 00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 1: I love Will so much. And he has a book 513 00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,040 Speaker 1: not too long ago he came up with the science 514 00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:15,080 Speaker 1: of storytelling, and uh, I love that domain all the 515 00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:19,159 Speaker 1: whole hero's journey, the Camp of Campbell. Right. The science 516 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:23,080 Speaker 1: side of that is, most storytelling takes place exactly along 517 00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:25,880 Speaker 1: the same lines as retrospection. So your retrospection, looking back, 518 00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:28,639 Speaker 1: prospection looking forward. We tend to look back on our 519 00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,080 Speaker 1: own lives. As you know, we're the hero, were the protagonist, 520 00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:34,080 Speaker 1: and whatever we're looking at specifically, it's like, Okay, we 521 00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:36,520 Speaker 1: started out in this space, and then we went on 522 00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:39,400 Speaker 1: a exploratory journey, and then we eventually came back. Yeah, 523 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:41,639 Speaker 1: eventually we came back around with that new knowledge and 524 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:45,440 Speaker 1: applied it. Yeah, yeah, you know that we have the 525 00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:48,640 Speaker 1: the synthesis and the anti thesis and all those things 526 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:50,720 Speaker 1: are how we kind of see ourselves. Is how we 527 00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,320 Speaker 1: make sense of our past because we couldn't remember everything 528 00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,320 Speaker 1: that would be horrible we had, so we edit it 529 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:57,719 Speaker 1: to be useful in that way. That's when when you're 530 00:24:57,720 --> 00:24:59,360 Speaker 1: watching a movie or reading a book and it doesn't 531 00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:01,159 Speaker 1: seem to be work for you, it's because it's not 532 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:04,639 Speaker 1: really playing nice with that retrospective system. But it's also 533 00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:07,560 Speaker 1: our personal narratives seemed to be very nice and tidy 534 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:11,320 Speaker 1: in that way, and although they never are. If you've 535 00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:13,879 Speaker 1: ever told a story about something with someone who was 536 00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:17,399 Speaker 1: also there and they're like, it didn't happen that. My 537 00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:19,720 Speaker 1: wife says that all the time, I don't know what 538 00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:22,639 Speaker 1: what experience he had, but I was there, None of 539 00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:25,680 Speaker 1: that happened. That's right, And you, uh, if without people 540 00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:27,800 Speaker 1: to check you, what does that say? It says that 541 00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:29,359 Speaker 1: a whole lot of you, what you believe is the 542 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:31,399 Speaker 1: story of your life is one of those things that 543 00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:33,200 Speaker 1: if we had a perfect diary of it or a 544 00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,120 Speaker 1: recording of it, or someone who was there who could 545 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,600 Speaker 1: challenge you, it wasn't exactly the way you think it was. 546 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,480 Speaker 1: Who was the professor after was it nine eleven or 547 00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:44,760 Speaker 1: some big events had everybody right down their notes as 548 00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,120 Speaker 1: to what they saw, what they felt, what they were experiencing. 549 00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:49,399 Speaker 1: And then I guess these were freshmen and then by 550 00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,239 Speaker 1: the time they become seniors they circle back and asked them, 551 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:56,280 Speaker 1: now it's three years later, and not only do they 552 00:25:56,320 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 1: misremember it, but when showing their own notes, they disagree 553 00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:02,200 Speaker 1: with themselves. Yeah. Yeah, that's been repeated a few times. 554 00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:04,399 Speaker 1: I'll talk about it and how mind changed. Robert Burton 555 00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 1: did this experiment after the Challenger incident. That was that 556 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:09,480 Speaker 1: was the big one, right, But the one that in 557 00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:13,160 Speaker 1: that study was when it's signaling above the noise. And yeah, 558 00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 1: that's the most amazing part of it. You they have 559 00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 1: you to write down whatever happened, at what you thought happened. 560 00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 1: They also do a prospection wise, I think they've done 561 00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:21,200 Speaker 1: they've done it where you tell me what you think 562 00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:23,840 Speaker 1: is going to happen, and you put into a Manila envelope, 563 00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:25,920 Speaker 1: and then the thing happened, you know, whatever event takes place, 564 00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:28,720 Speaker 1: and then you ask people, what did you what did 565 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:30,119 Speaker 1: you predict? Was going to happen, and they tell you, 566 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:32,280 Speaker 1: I predicted exactly what happened. You take it out of 567 00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,240 Speaker 1: the minial envelope and it's not that and they're like, oh, 568 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,560 Speaker 1: come on, there's no way. But even though that's my handwriting, 569 00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:39,440 Speaker 1: I never would have written. And that's the weirdest thing 570 00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:43,280 Speaker 1: in the in the Challenger study, uh, when he showed 571 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:46,600 Speaker 1: people that their memory was absolutely not what they thought 572 00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:50,600 Speaker 1: it was, their first reaction was to say, you're tricking me, like, 573 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:54,159 Speaker 1: like this is you wrote this, like somebody else wrote this. 574 00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:57,520 Speaker 1: And that seems so similar to something called anasignosia. And 575 00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:00,520 Speaker 1: anasignosia is the denial of disorder. And you can have 576 00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:02,760 Speaker 1: like a lesion or a brain injury that it calls 577 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:05,919 Speaker 1: some something that's wrong in your body. But then on 578 00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:07,760 Speaker 1: top of that, you have this other thing, which is 579 00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:09,720 Speaker 1: denial of the thing that's wrong your body. So I've 580 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:13,160 Speaker 1: seen cases where people have an arm that doesn't function properly, 581 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:16,359 Speaker 1: and they'll ask, like, why can't you lift your arm? 582 00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:17,919 Speaker 1: Why can't you pick up this pencil? And they'll and 583 00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:19,240 Speaker 1: they'll say, oh, what do you do? And I can 584 00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:21,199 Speaker 1: pick that up? But what's going on with this arm? 585 00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,159 Speaker 1: Like that's my mom's arm. She's playing a joke on 586 00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:25,960 Speaker 1: me right now. Like the split brain patients where they 587 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:28,520 Speaker 1: don't understand what they're seeing when they come up with 588 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:31,280 Speaker 1: This is the greatest example we've been discussing is if 589 00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:34,160 Speaker 1: you if you have someone who has a they called 590 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,800 Speaker 1: split brain patient, the corpus colos and that connects the 591 00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:40,919 Speaker 1: two hemispheres. They corpus colosomy is often performed when a 592 00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,560 Speaker 1: person has a certain kind of they have seizures that 593 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:47,160 Speaker 1: they don't want a cascade. Um, you end up with 594 00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:50,600 Speaker 1: basically two brains, and you can use a divider so 595 00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,160 Speaker 1: that one I is going to one hemisphere wives going 596 00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:55,160 Speaker 1: the other. You can show a person in image. Let's 597 00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,840 Speaker 1: say you show them a terrible carrec mangled bodies, and 598 00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:00,280 Speaker 1: they feel very sick. But the portion of and you're 599 00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:02,440 Speaker 1: showing that too, is not the portion that delivers language. 600 00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:04,560 Speaker 1: So then you ask the person who is feeling sick, 601 00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:06,840 Speaker 1: why you feel sick right now? What's going on? They say, Oh, 602 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:08,399 Speaker 1: I had something bad at lunch. You have we we 603 00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:10,159 Speaker 1: will very quickly come up with a narrative and our 604 00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:13,440 Speaker 1: explanation for what we're experiencing, and we do so believing 605 00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:15,880 Speaker 1: that narrative, even if that narrative is way far away 606 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,680 Speaker 1: from what's actually taking place. So let's quickly run through 607 00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,720 Speaker 1: some of our favorite cognitive bias is going to be tested. 608 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:24,720 Speaker 1: I hope I remember this. Let's go, um. Well, we'll 609 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:28,199 Speaker 1: start with an easy one. Confirmation bias. Confirmation bias. When 610 00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:31,359 Speaker 1: people write about confirmation bias, they usually get it pretty wrong. Uh, 611 00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:35,000 Speaker 1: here's the way it confirms. It's a great way to 612 00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:39,600 Speaker 1: put it. The least sexy term in psychology is that 613 00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:41,760 Speaker 1: makes sense stopping rule. You think they come up with 614 00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,480 Speaker 1: a better phrase, and that that just means when I 615 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:47,000 Speaker 1: go looking for an explanation of something, when when it finally, 616 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:50,280 Speaker 1: when it makes sense, I'll stop looking for information. Confirmation 617 00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:52,440 Speaker 1: bias is what happens. Here's the way I prefer to 618 00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:53,960 Speaker 1: frame it. Let's say you're at a tent in the woods. 619 00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:57,360 Speaker 1: You hear a weird sound and you think, oh, that 620 00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,680 Speaker 1: might be a bear. I should go look. So what 621 00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:01,280 Speaker 1: you have a negative effect in your body, you have 622 00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:03,840 Speaker 1: an anxiety. You go out looking for confirmation that that 623 00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:07,560 Speaker 1: anxiety is just or reasonable because as a social aspect 624 00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:09,400 Speaker 1: to it at all times, because we can't escape our 625 00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,440 Speaker 1: social selves, and so you're looking and maybe you don't 626 00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,280 Speaker 1: find it, you know, maybe you don't find evidence that 627 00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:17,240 Speaker 1: points in that direction. Eventually you you modify your behavior 628 00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,720 Speaker 1: based off what you see with your flash lie. If 629 00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,880 Speaker 1: you do that online though an environment that's an information 630 00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,160 Speaker 1: rich environment. You have some sort of anxiety and you're 631 00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:29,600 Speaker 1: looking for justification that that anxiety is uh is reasonable. 632 00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,120 Speaker 1: You'll find it. You'll find something right, and that will 633 00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,840 Speaker 1: confirm that you that your search was was good and 634 00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,920 Speaker 1: justified and reasonable to other human beings. So confirmation bo 635 00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,920 Speaker 1: is very simply is just something happens that doesn't make sense. 636 00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:44,080 Speaker 1: You want to disambiguate it. It's uncertain. You want to 637 00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:46,400 Speaker 1: reach some level of certainty. So you look for information 638 00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:50,200 Speaker 1: that based off your hunch, your hypothesis, and then when 639 00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:53,920 Speaker 1: you find information that seems to it's like confirm your hunch. 640 00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,720 Speaker 1: You stop looking as if you like, did some something wrong, 641 00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,880 Speaker 1: as if you solved it. Why don't we as a species, look, 642 00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:03,840 Speaker 1: we're disconfirming information just to validate in most situations is 643 00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,360 Speaker 1: not adaptive, like confirmation bias is actually the right move 644 00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:08,320 Speaker 1: in most situations, Like if you're looking for your keys, 645 00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,480 Speaker 1: you know, yeah, you don't go looking for your keys 646 00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:13,680 Speaker 1: on Mars. You go looking for them in your kitchen, right, 647 00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,720 Speaker 1: and like it's the faster solution, and most of our 648 00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:19,080 Speaker 1: most of these biases go back to the adaptive thing 649 00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:21,680 Speaker 1: is the thing that costs the least calories and and 650 00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:23,960 Speaker 1: gets you to this solution as quickly as possible, so 651 00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:25,480 Speaker 1: you can go back to trying to find food not 652 00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:28,440 Speaker 1: getting eaten. And in this case, most of the time, 653 00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:30,680 Speaker 1: most of the time confirmation bias serves as well. It's 654 00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:33,000 Speaker 1: in those instances where it really doesn't serve as well 655 00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:34,600 Speaker 1: that we end up with things like you know, climate 656 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:38,920 Speaker 1: change or what have you. What about ego depletion, Oh, man, 657 00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:40,480 Speaker 1: ego depletion is one of the things that boy that 658 00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:43,959 Speaker 1: it goes back and forth. Uh. The original scientists are 659 00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,720 Speaker 1: still like hardcore into it. I love it. Uh. Whether 660 00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:51,400 Speaker 1: or not ego depletion is properly like defined or categorized, 661 00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:54,400 Speaker 1: the phenomenon does exist. The actual mechanisms of it aren't 662 00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:57,920 Speaker 1: well understood. But when you have been faced with a 663 00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:02,320 Speaker 1: lot of cognitive tasks, uh, you start to have a 664 00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:06,080 Speaker 1: hard time completing more cognitive task and in general, hum 665 00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:09,160 Speaker 1: as well as issues that require willpower and discipline. Right, 666 00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:11,600 Speaker 1: So the more you the more you use willpower, the 667 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:15,720 Speaker 1: less willpower you have to use. It's finite, not not unended. 668 00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:18,000 Speaker 1: And this is not well understood a lot of the like, 669 00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:20,880 Speaker 1: here's why this is happening, Like haven't I failed to replicate? 670 00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:22,720 Speaker 1: So we have this phenomenon, but we still don't quite 671 00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:25,160 Speaker 1: understand what is the mechanism under allowing it. Well, let 672 00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:28,040 Speaker 1: me do one last one. The Benjamin Franklin And that's 673 00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,760 Speaker 1: my favorite Benjamin Franklin effect goes back to you know, 674 00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:32,320 Speaker 1: a lot of my new book is is as in 675 00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:36,320 Speaker 1: this domain of justification and rationalization. Um, Benjamin Franklin had 676 00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:39,239 Speaker 1: someone who was opposing him at every turn. I call 677 00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:41,080 Speaker 1: him a hater in the in the previous book, back 678 00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:44,000 Speaker 1: when that was a term. Yeah, and uh, he just 679 00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,440 Speaker 1: had this political opponent that he, uh, he knew was 680 00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:48,360 Speaker 1: going to cause him real problems for the next thing 681 00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:51,080 Speaker 1: he was going up for. And uh, he also knew 682 00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:53,960 Speaker 1: that this guy had a really nice book collection. And 683 00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,560 Speaker 1: everybody also knew that Benjamin Franklin had a nice book collection, 684 00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:59,320 Speaker 1: and so he sent them a letter and said, there's 685 00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:00,720 Speaker 1: a book that I've always wanted to read. But I 686 00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:02,560 Speaker 1: can never find I hear you've got a copy of it. No, 687 00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:05,640 Speaker 1: the who knows it seems from reading the literature that 688 00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,760 Speaker 1: been Refrancla totally had this book. And uh, but the 689 00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:10,280 Speaker 1: guy gave him the book as a favor, and he 690 00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,440 Speaker 1: was like very honored that been re Franklin asked for it. 691 00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:14,400 Speaker 1: I like to think of Benjamin Franklin just like put 692 00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:16,800 Speaker 1: it on a shelf and then wait, wait, waited a month, 693 00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:19,280 Speaker 1: and then took it back to him. Um, but he said, 694 00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,800 Speaker 1: thank you, I'm forever in your debt. You're the best. 695 00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:24,040 Speaker 1: And from that point forward, that guy never said another 696 00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:26,680 Speaker 1: negative thing about Benjamin Franklin. So what that comes down 697 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:28,960 Speaker 1: to is I just observed my own behavior. I did 698 00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:31,719 Speaker 1: something that produced cognitive dissonance. I have a negative attitude 699 00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:33,200 Speaker 1: toward ben or Franklin, but I did something that a 700 00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:36,240 Speaker 1: person with a positive attitude would do. So I must 701 00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:38,680 Speaker 1: either think a strange thing about who I am and 702 00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:40,440 Speaker 1: what I'm doing, or I could just take the easy 703 00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,160 Speaker 1: rout out and go I like Benjamin Franklin. And that's 704 00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:45,680 Speaker 1: that I think called that the Benjamin Franklin effect. I 705 00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:49,040 Speaker 1: find that really just fascinating that there are two phrases 706 00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:51,680 Speaker 1: that I'm in a note of in one of the 707 00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:55,560 Speaker 1: books that I have to ask about extinction burst, and 708 00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:59,240 Speaker 1: I have to ask what is wrong with Catharsis. Catharsis 709 00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:02,320 Speaker 1: the stincionburst is a real thing that I love. Uh. 710 00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:04,120 Speaker 1: I see that everywhere I see. I see that all 711 00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,680 Speaker 1: in society right now in many different ways. That extinction 712 00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,720 Speaker 1: bursts is u when you have a behavior that has 713 00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:13,640 Speaker 1: been enforced many many times, and you it's your body 714 00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:16,280 Speaker 1: even expects that you're going to perform this behavior, and 715 00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:18,920 Speaker 1: you start doing something like say dieting, or you're trying 716 00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:20,800 Speaker 1: to keep smoking, or you're trying to do you're trying 717 00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:23,920 Speaker 1: to just extinguish the behavior. Right at the moment before 718 00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:27,520 Speaker 1: it fully extinguishes, you will have a little hissy fit. 719 00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:30,960 Speaker 1: You'll have a as they say back home, um, you'll 720 00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:34,440 Speaker 1: have a toddler outburst sort of thing where you're all 721 00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:37,080 Speaker 1: of your systems, cognitive systems are saying, why don't we 722 00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:39,440 Speaker 1: really really try to do that thing again, because we're 723 00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:43,600 Speaker 1: about to lose it? And the they call this an 724 00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:46,040 Speaker 1: extinction bursts. That moment of like if you're watching it 725 00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:48,080 Speaker 1: on a slope, it's sloping down down, down, down, and 726 00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:50,640 Speaker 1: there's a huge spike. And that could either be the 727 00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:54,720 Speaker 1: moment you go back to smoking or relapse, or the fish. 728 00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:56,479 Speaker 1: It could be the death rottle. Depends on how you 729 00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:58,719 Speaker 1: how you deal with your extinction burst. I thought that 730 00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:02,640 Speaker 1: was fascinating, And then of Tharsis comes up. Why is 731 00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:09,279 Speaker 1: the concept of that cathartic surrender or finish the things problematic? 732 00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:13,040 Speaker 1: It's related to the extverse. There's a for a while 733 00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:15,879 Speaker 1: there this, especially in like nineteen fifties psychology, the idea 734 00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:17,560 Speaker 1: that like just get it out, you know, like like 735 00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:19,920 Speaker 1: if you're angry, go beat up a punching bag or 736 00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:22,960 Speaker 1: yell at people from the safety of your car. Yeah. 737 00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:24,520 Speaker 1: There used to be a thing in like the eighties 738 00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:30,520 Speaker 1: scream therapy. Yeah, I recall the unfortunately primal scream. Yeah. 739 00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:35,640 Speaker 1: Unfortunately or fortunately. Uh, the evidence, the evidence suggests that 740 00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:38,920 Speaker 1: what this does is reward you for the behavior, and uh, 741 00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:42,279 Speaker 1: you maintain that level of anger and anxiety and frustrations. 742 00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:46,480 Speaker 1: It's self rewarding, yea. And so it's uh, there are 743 00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:49,160 Speaker 1: ways to have cathartic experiences, but the ones where you 744 00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:51,680 Speaker 1: reward yourself for being angry tend to keep you angry 745 00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:54,200 Speaker 1: that that makes a lot of sense. And last question 746 00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:57,400 Speaker 1: on you are not so smart? Do we ever really 747 00:34:57,520 --> 00:35:01,160 Speaker 1: know things or do we just have a feeling of knowing? 748 00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:06,279 Speaker 1: Is an unanswerable question, thankfully, Uh from from you? No, No, 749 00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:09,120 Speaker 1: I feel like I feel like I know. That's uh. 750 00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:12,240 Speaker 1: Here's what's important to know about the Certainty is an emotion. 751 00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:14,239 Speaker 1: This is something that gets me in trouble. I think 752 00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:17,120 Speaker 1: in like rationalists and uh, you know, circles. But I 753 00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:19,280 Speaker 1: won't get you in trouble here. Well, thank you, because 754 00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:22,040 Speaker 1: like the the ideas like facts not feelings or your 755 00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:27,000 Speaker 1: you know, let's not get emotional, let's not make emotional appeals. Uh, 756 00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 1: there's no dividing emotion from cognition. Emotion is cognition, and 757 00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:33,240 Speaker 1: certainty is one of those things that lets you bridge 758 00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:36,239 Speaker 1: the two because certainty is the emergent property of networks 759 00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:39,120 Speaker 1: waiting something in one direction or another, and you feel like, 760 00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:40,880 Speaker 1: you know, if you want to do percentage wise, it's 761 00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:42,880 Speaker 1: is you can feel it. I ask you percentage wise, 762 00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:45,919 Speaker 1: like if I ask you did you have eggs last 763 00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:48,439 Speaker 1: week on Tuesday? And you're like, I think I did, 764 00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:50,560 Speaker 1: and like, well, like on a scale from one to ten, 765 00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:53,319 Speaker 1: like on a percentage wise on Saturday morning, I went 766 00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:56,640 Speaker 1: to the dinner, I had eggs. So that feeling that 767 00:35:56,719 --> 00:36:02,320 Speaker 1: you're getting, there's something generating that deepeealing, right, So the 768 00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:05,640 Speaker 1: feeling of knowing is something that's separate from knowing, but 769 00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:08,040 Speaker 1: as far as subjectively, it's the exact same thing. We 770 00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:10,120 Speaker 1: only get to see this objectively in some way, especially 771 00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:12,040 Speaker 1: in those like open up the middle envelope, let's see 772 00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:15,200 Speaker 1: what you actually said. So this is a pet peeve 773 00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:18,719 Speaker 1: of mind because here in finance there is this, for 774 00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:24,000 Speaker 1: lack of a better phrase, meme that the markets hate uncertainty, 775 00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:26,279 Speaker 1: and whenever people are talking about what's going to happen 776 00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:30,960 Speaker 1: in the future, well, it's very uncertain, to which I say, well, 777 00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:34,399 Speaker 1: the future is always inherently uncertain. When things are going 778 00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:37,880 Speaker 1: along fine and the market's going up, we feel okay 779 00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:40,800 Speaker 1: with our uncertainty, so we can lie to ourselves about 780 00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,480 Speaker 1: it very very easily, exactly. But when everything is terrible, 781 00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:46,960 Speaker 1: the markets are down, the Feds raising rates, inflation, Oh, 782 00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:50,719 Speaker 1: the market hates uncertainty. Now at the uncertainty level, you 783 00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:53,080 Speaker 1: didn't know the future before, you don't know the future now, 784 00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:55,920 Speaker 1: but you can no longer lie to yourself and you 785 00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,680 Speaker 1: have a sense of of what's going on. This is, 786 00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:01,719 Speaker 1: by the way, a very out liar view, because everybody 787 00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:03,799 Speaker 1: loves the uncertain. So well, I'm happy to sit here, 788 00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:05,879 Speaker 1: I despise. I'm happy to sit here and surrounded about 789 00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:08,600 Speaker 1: all these people and take the position of, uh, you're 790 00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:12,840 Speaker 1: very wrong. Uh, the they are less smart. There is 791 00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:16,200 Speaker 1: no such thing as certainty. This is, you know, from 792 00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:19,879 Speaker 1: the scientific or psychological even philosophical domain. Everything is probabilistic 793 00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:23,000 Speaker 1: and we can like hedge our bets, but the concept 794 00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:24,920 Speaker 1: of certainty is way outside the domain of any of 795 00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:27,520 Speaker 1: these topics. Yeah, and and well, we'll talk about bertrand 796 00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:30,640 Speaker 1: Russell later. But it's a quote from your book that 797 00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:33,920 Speaker 1: always makes me think, well, let's let's talk about it now, 798 00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:38,719 Speaker 1: because it's such an interesting observation quote. The observer when 799 00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:42,360 Speaker 1: he seems to himself be observing a stone is really, 800 00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:46,160 Speaker 1: if physics is to be believed, observing the effects of 801 00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:50,400 Speaker 1: the stone upon himself. Right, Isn't that awesome? That is 802 00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:54,200 Speaker 1: right from this book How Minds Change by Day Man Here, 803 00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:56,359 Speaker 1: it's a good book. The U I got that from 804 00:37:56,520 --> 00:38:00,920 Speaker 1: interviewing the Lately Ross who created the term naive realism. 805 00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:03,960 Speaker 1: It's another phrase I love, and this this is a 806 00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:05,600 Speaker 1: way to kind of get into naive realism. N I 807 00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:07,520 Speaker 1: realism is the assumption that you're getting a sort of 808 00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:10,160 Speaker 1: a video camera view of the world through your eyeballs, 809 00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:12,640 Speaker 1: and that you're storing your memories and some sort of 810 00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:17,120 Speaker 1: database like a hard drive and uh, and that when 811 00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:20,520 Speaker 1: I ask your opinion on say, uh, immigration or gun control, 812 00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:23,120 Speaker 1: that whatever you tell me came from you went down 813 00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:25,400 Speaker 1: to the bowels of your castle to your scrolls and 814 00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:27,920 Speaker 1: pulled out the scrolls by candle light and read them all. 815 00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:30,200 Speaker 1: And then one day came up from that and emerged 816 00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,160 Speaker 1: from the staircase and raised your finger and said, ha, 817 00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:35,960 Speaker 1: this is what I think about gun control. And it 818 00:38:36,239 --> 00:38:39,520 Speaker 1: minded what what's invisible in the process or what becomes 819 00:38:39,520 --> 00:38:42,000 Speaker 1: invisible when we're at we're tasked with explaining ourselves. Is 820 00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:45,560 Speaker 1: that uh, all the rationalization and justification and all the 821 00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:48,239 Speaker 1: interpretation that you've done, and all the elaboration, these all 822 00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:52,520 Speaker 1: these psychological terms, and that you Uh. This concept of 823 00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:55,520 Speaker 1: nairealism is that you see reality for what it is 824 00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:58,200 Speaker 1: and other people are mistaken when you get into moments 825 00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:02,000 Speaker 1: of conflict and the The thing that bergand Russell said 826 00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:04,520 Speaker 1: is so nice because he is alluding to the fact 827 00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:08,480 Speaker 1: that all reality's virtual reality, that the subjective experiences is 828 00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:12,120 Speaker 1: very limited, with the German psychologists called an un velt 829 00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:17,040 Speaker 1: the thing related to naive realism that was so surprising 830 00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:19,480 Speaker 1: in the book. And we keep alluding to evolution in 831 00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:24,240 Speaker 1: various things. I did not realize that the optic nerve 832 00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:28,120 Speaker 1: does not perceive the world in three D. It's only 833 00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:32,040 Speaker 1: two dimensional. And okay, so we have two eyes, so 834 00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:35,239 Speaker 1: we were able to create an illusion of depth of 835 00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,640 Speaker 1: a third dimension, but the human eye does not see 836 00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:41,879 Speaker 1: the world in full three Yeah. I just while while 837 00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:44,360 Speaker 1: I'm in visiting New York, I spent time with Pascal 838 00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:46,319 Speaker 1: who's in the book, and he's the one who like 839 00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:49,719 Speaker 1: ram me through all this. That's amazing, isn't it. It's uh, 840 00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:52,520 Speaker 1: the retina. I mean, you know, obviously at microscopic levels 841 00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:54,759 Speaker 1: it's three dimensional, but for the purpose of the vision, 842 00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:59,040 Speaker 1: it's a two dimensional sheet. And so we create within 843 00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:01,960 Speaker 1: consciousness the third dimension. But it's an illusion, just like 844 00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:04,600 Speaker 1: every color is an elite. It's a very realistic illusion, 845 00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:07,600 Speaker 1: but it's an illusion, right, And and that's why paintings 846 00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:09,920 Speaker 1: can look nice because you play with the rules of 847 00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:15,080 Speaker 1: illusions that to create depth. And even people who who 848 00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:19,719 Speaker 1: gained vision late in life, the understanding depth and three 849 00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:21,840 Speaker 1: dimensionality is something that takes a lot of experience. You 850 00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:23,880 Speaker 1: have to learn how to do it. And they oftentimes 851 00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:26,440 Speaker 1: they'll in experiments with people who just gained vision late 852 00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:29,880 Speaker 1: in life, they'll like put a telephone and run like 853 00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:31,879 Speaker 1: far away from them, and they'll they'll try to reach 854 00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:34,080 Speaker 1: out to it. It's like thirty ft away because you 855 00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:36,279 Speaker 1: have to learn depth. That's something that we learned over time. 856 00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:38,600 Speaker 1: We you know, we did as children. Who don't you remember, 857 00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:41,240 Speaker 1: you don't really think about it. So let's talk about 858 00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:44,040 Speaker 1: how minds change. And I want to start by asking 859 00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:49,400 Speaker 1: how did a flat earther inspire this book? They actually 860 00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:51,160 Speaker 1: came in a little later in the process. I was 861 00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:55,880 Speaker 1: there was a documentary on Netflix. You may have seen it, 862 00:40:56,320 --> 00:40:59,759 Speaker 1: Behind the Curve, uh, and the producers of that were 863 00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:02,359 Speaker 1: ends of my podcast, and then they grabbed a couple 864 00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:03,960 Speaker 1: of my guests for the show and everything, and I 865 00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:05,239 Speaker 1: thought it would be you know, I would love to 866 00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:07,279 Speaker 1: help promote something. I didn't know this, but someone told 867 00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:09,200 Speaker 1: me I was in the credits and I looked in 868 00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:11,040 Speaker 1: the credits it was like, you know David, thanks to 869 00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:13,120 Speaker 1: David McRaney, And I was like, oh wow. So I 870 00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:15,239 Speaker 1: emailed them and said, hey, you want to come on 871 00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:18,040 Speaker 1: my podcast, we'll talk about your documentary. Because if I 872 00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:19,480 Speaker 1: had gotten a chance to make a Netflix show, it 873 00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:21,840 Speaker 1: had have been very similar because that's it seems like 874 00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:24,520 Speaker 1: it's about flat Earth, but it's actually about motivated reasoning 875 00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:27,960 Speaker 1: and identity and community and things like that, and community 876 00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:30,960 Speaker 1: community is a huge part of it. Group identity, and 877 00:41:31,400 --> 00:41:35,920 Speaker 1: um that after that episode, Uh, they a group in 878 00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:38,120 Speaker 1: Sweden do they put on something like south By Southwest 879 00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:40,360 Speaker 1: called the gather Festival. They asked, Hey, we got this 880 00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:43,680 Speaker 1: crazy idea. What if you go to Sweden and we'll 881 00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:46,359 Speaker 1: get h Mark Sargent, who was sort of the spokesperson 882 00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:49,360 Speaker 1: for the flat Earth community, and we'll put you on stage. 883 00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:51,080 Speaker 1: And I know you're writing a book about how minds change, 884 00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:53,040 Speaker 1: you can try to try out some of those techniques 885 00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:54,520 Speaker 1: on them. And I was like, oh, that sounds awesome, 886 00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:58,120 Speaker 1: So um I did. I went and I met Mark, 887 00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:00,919 Speaker 1: and uh, I found it very nice, very lovely man. 888 00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:03,600 Speaker 1: And I did try something at the point where where 889 00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:05,360 Speaker 1: I met him. I was about halfway through and that 890 00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:07,439 Speaker 1: wasn't great at the techniques, but I did an okay job. 891 00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:09,680 Speaker 1: That's that's towards the end of the book where you 892 00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:12,880 Speaker 1: actually describe um. He said it was one of the 893 00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:15,920 Speaker 1: best conversations he ever had. You don't call him an idiot, 894 00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:19,279 Speaker 1: you know challenges views. You're really asking how did you 895 00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:24,360 Speaker 1: come to these sorts of perspectives to get him to 896 00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:26,920 Speaker 1: focus on his own process. That's the whole idea of 897 00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:29,399 Speaker 1: the techniques I learned about in the book. Uh, we're 898 00:42:29,600 --> 00:42:31,800 Speaker 1: writing this book. I met many different organizations. Deeve Campels 899 00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:34,600 Speaker 1: are street epistemology, people who work in motivational interviewing and 900 00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:39,680 Speaker 1: therapeutic practices, UH, professional negotiation and conflict resolution. UH people 901 00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:42,719 Speaker 1: work in those spaces. And what really astounded me was 902 00:42:42,719 --> 00:42:45,160 Speaker 1: when I would bring the stuff that I was witnessing 903 00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:49,760 Speaker 1: to scientists or experts. They there was this underlying literature 904 00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:52,120 Speaker 1: that made sense. But none of these groups had ever 905 00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:54,120 Speaker 1: heard of this literature for the most part, and they 906 00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:56,400 Speaker 1: definitely hadn't heard of each other. But they did a 907 00:42:56,440 --> 00:42:58,879 Speaker 1: lot of a b testing thousands of conversations throw away. 908 00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:00,960 Speaker 1: I didn't work keeping what did and they would arrive 909 00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:02,880 Speaker 1: at this is how you ought to do this, and 910 00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:06,080 Speaker 1: then would also be similar they had it was in steps, 911 00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:08,680 Speaker 1: the steps would be in the same order. And I 912 00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:10,040 Speaker 1: sorted think of it like, you know, if you wanted 913 00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:12,200 Speaker 1: to build an airplane, the first airplane ever built, no 914 00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:14,080 Speaker 1: matter where it was builder who did it, it's gonna 915 00:43:14,080 --> 00:43:16,080 Speaker 1: look kind of like an airplane. It's gonna have wings, 916 00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:18,719 Speaker 1: and it's going to be lighter than because you're dealing 917 00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:21,680 Speaker 1: with the physics that you have to contend with when 918 00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:24,360 Speaker 1: it comes to the kind of conversation dynamics that actually 919 00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:27,560 Speaker 1: persuade people or move people or illuminate them. They have 920 00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:29,080 Speaker 1: to work with the way brains makes sins of the 921 00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:32,160 Speaker 1: world and all of the evolutionary path that pressures all 922 00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:34,719 Speaker 1: of that. And so these independent groups discovered all that 923 00:43:35,360 --> 00:43:37,680 Speaker 1: independent of each other and of the science that supports them. 924 00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:39,880 Speaker 1: And Mark Sargeant, like when I first met him, I 925 00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:41,480 Speaker 1: shook his hand and said, look, I'm not going to 926 00:43:41,520 --> 00:43:43,120 Speaker 1: like make fun of you or anything. Goes Oh, that's fine, 927 00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:44,319 Speaker 1: make fun of me all you want. And he he 928 00:43:44,320 --> 00:43:46,200 Speaker 1: took out his phone and showed me the commercially've done 929 00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:49,280 Speaker 1: for LifeLock, whereas like, if I can do it, anybody 930 00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:51,680 Speaker 1: can do it, and he's totally okay with it. But 931 00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:53,279 Speaker 1: that's not what I did. And then when I sat 932 00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:54,919 Speaker 1: down with him, one of the essences, I know we'll 933 00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:56,239 Speaker 1: get to it, but it's like, you don't want to 934 00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:58,080 Speaker 1: face off and I need to win, you need to lose. 935 00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:00,560 Speaker 1: I'm trying. I'm not even to aiding you. What I 936 00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:02,400 Speaker 1: want to do is get shoulder to shoulder with you 937 00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:05,040 Speaker 1: and say, isn't interesting that we disagree? I wonder why 938 00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:06,799 Speaker 1: you want to pardner up with me and trying to 939 00:44:06,840 --> 00:44:09,479 Speaker 1: investigate that mystery together. And in so doing I opened 940 00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:11,680 Speaker 1: up a space to let him meta cognate and run 941 00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:14,160 Speaker 1: through how did I arrive at this? And that's what 942 00:44:14,239 --> 00:44:15,360 Speaker 1: I did with him on stage, and you know, we 943 00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:17,239 Speaker 1: learned all sorts of things, like he he used to 944 00:44:17,239 --> 00:44:19,640 Speaker 1: be a ringer for a video game company, so that 945 00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:22,239 Speaker 1: so that's where his conspiratorial stuff first came from. Oh 946 00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:25,000 Speaker 1: so of course he wasn't just a guy showing these 947 00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:29,200 Speaker 1: contests weren't fair. They and it's always a name, they 948 00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:33,320 Speaker 1: had somebody skewing the outcome. Going through his whole history, 949 00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:35,480 Speaker 1: it was really clear how he got motivated into this. 950 00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:38,080 Speaker 1: But the thing that really kicked in was, you know, 951 00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:40,319 Speaker 1: flat Earth is a pretty big group of people. They 952 00:44:40,360 --> 00:44:43,560 Speaker 1: have conventions, they have dating apps, and once he became 953 00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:45,680 Speaker 1: a spokesperson for it, and he's traveling around the world, 954 00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:48,200 Speaker 1: is going to Sweden, Like now he's not traveling around 955 00:44:48,200 --> 00:44:52,200 Speaker 1: the world, he's traveling up across surface. That's right. He 956 00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:57,799 Speaker 1: is traversing the geography Cartesian plane of planet, that's right. 957 00:44:57,840 --> 00:45:00,560 Speaker 1: And so that that was a really the sun flat also, 958 00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:03,440 Speaker 1: that's always my question. If the Earth is flat, is 959 00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:06,840 Speaker 1: the Sun of sphere, why would some celestial bodies be 960 00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:09,719 Speaker 1: There are schisms within the flat earth community. There are 961 00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:12,480 Speaker 1: many different models of flat Earth. The one that Mark 962 00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:15,920 Speaker 1: Sergeant is part of. They see the Earth that's sort 963 00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:18,360 Speaker 1: of it's almost like a snow globe. It's flat, but 964 00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:20,920 Speaker 1: there's a dome, there's a there's makes perfect sense to 965 00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:23,960 Speaker 1: and perfectly the Sun and the Moon are are are 966 00:45:24,040 --> 00:45:26,480 Speaker 1: celestial objects that are orbs. And when you ask my 967 00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:29,480 Speaker 1: good question was like, okay, well then it seems manufactured. 968 00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:31,320 Speaker 1: Who made it? God's or aliens? And he goes and 969 00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:35,200 Speaker 1: I remember leaning in and saying it doesn't matter. Isn't 970 00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:38,880 Speaker 1: it the same thing? Well, you know, the Greeks figured 971 00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:41,840 Speaker 1: out five thousand years ago that the Earth was round 972 00:45:41,840 --> 00:45:44,520 Speaker 1: by just looking at the shadow of the sun cast 973 00:45:44,920 --> 00:45:48,239 Speaker 1: at the same time in different cities of different latitudes. 974 00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:52,319 Speaker 1: But five thousand years of progress, just hold a side. Look, 975 00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:55,560 Speaker 1: you wouldn't you would believe that the number of ways 976 00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:58,680 Speaker 1: that that has been explained away in you know, flat 977 00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:01,719 Speaker 1: earth world, there's a plenty of explanations for why that's, 978 00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:04,759 Speaker 1: you know, part of the big conspiracy. My favorite part 979 00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:08,160 Speaker 1: of the flat earth community was flat Earth Meets done 980 00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:11,440 Speaker 1: in Krueger with the guy who built a rocket to 981 00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:14,320 Speaker 1: go up in order to prove that the Earth was flat. 982 00:46:14,880 --> 00:46:18,840 Speaker 1: We don't know what he saw because he crashed and died. 983 00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:21,480 Speaker 1: Do you recall this was like remember three summers ago, 984 00:46:21,640 --> 00:46:23,239 Speaker 1: I can tell I can I know exactly how the 985 00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:26,759 Speaker 1: response would like see see he took him out and 986 00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:30,520 Speaker 1: they took him out. So you mentioned several different groups, 987 00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:36,480 Speaker 1: The Street Epistemology and the deep canvassers were really fascinating 988 00:46:36,560 --> 00:46:41,320 Speaker 1: my book. Right, So a quick background, A well funded 989 00:46:41,360 --> 00:46:46,080 Speaker 1: group in California. We're trying to convince people to support 990 00:46:46,239 --> 00:46:50,080 Speaker 1: the Marriage Equality Act, which ultimately ends up failing in 991 00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:52,879 Speaker 1: California by three or four percent, and they had done 992 00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:56,080 Speaker 1: thousands of home visits, knocked on the door, Hey, we 993 00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:57,960 Speaker 1: want to talk to you about about this act and 994 00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:01,080 Speaker 1: why we think you should support it. And the failure 995 00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:04,319 Speaker 1: of that was a real moment of clarity, and they said, 996 00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:06,840 Speaker 1: we have to rejigger everything we doing because this is 997 00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:10,560 Speaker 1: totally ineffective. And the methodology they came up with that 998 00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:13,520 Speaker 1: standing shoulders shoulder and let's figure out why we think. 999 00:47:14,280 --> 00:47:17,319 Speaker 1: Let's explore why we think so differently. You know, in 1000 00:47:17,440 --> 00:47:21,440 Speaker 1: politics and single issues, if you can move somebody a 1001 00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:25,600 Speaker 1: tenth of a percent, it's huge. Their impact is a 1002 00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:30,640 Speaker 1: hundred times that it's ten. It's astonishing. Tell us a 1003 00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:34,000 Speaker 1: little bit about what this group does that's so effective 1004 00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:37,520 Speaker 1: when they're supporting a specific issue. Yeah, the background you 1005 00:47:37,520 --> 00:47:40,560 Speaker 1: gave exactly what happened. They wanted to understand how they lost, 1006 00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:42,840 Speaker 1: and they went door to door asking They came up 1007 00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:45,560 Speaker 1: with this idea. This Dave Fleischer, who runs the Leadership 1008 00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:49,240 Speaker 1: Lab U c l A or USC and the LGBT 1009 00:47:49,280 --> 00:47:52,200 Speaker 1: Center of Los Angeles, and they're extremely well funded, millions 1010 00:47:52,200 --> 00:47:55,400 Speaker 1: of millions of dollars and the biggest LGBT organization of 1011 00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:57,520 Speaker 1: its kind in the world, and the Leadership Lab was 1012 00:47:57,560 --> 00:47:59,320 Speaker 1: their political action wing. And as they were doing this 1013 00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:02,040 Speaker 1: cavasing thing and they lost in Prop eight, he wanted 1014 00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:04,239 Speaker 1: to know, how could that be because this seems to 1015 00:48:04,280 --> 00:48:05,960 Speaker 1: be an area where we would definitely wouldn't lose this, 1016 00:48:06,480 --> 00:48:08,520 Speaker 1: And so he said, what if we just wouldn't ask people? 1017 00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:10,200 Speaker 1: And so they did the exact same thing again. So 1018 00:48:10,239 --> 00:48:12,160 Speaker 1: this time they knock on doors and say they went 1019 00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:13,880 Speaker 1: to areas they knew that they law that they had 1020 00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:16,400 Speaker 1: lost in help us understand, and if that somebody had 1021 00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:19,040 Speaker 1: voted against it, they asked, why did you vote against it? 1022 00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:22,920 Speaker 1: And they had these listening brigades about fifty seventy five 1023 00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:24,960 Speaker 1: people would go out and knocked or the door, and 1024 00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:28,600 Speaker 1: to their astonishment, people wanted to talk. When they started asking, like, 1025 00:48:28,680 --> 00:48:32,279 Speaker 1: this is a non adversarial thing, it's just hear them out. 1026 00:48:32,600 --> 00:48:35,279 Speaker 1: And when they did that, these conversations we go to 1027 00:48:36,040 --> 00:48:37,840 Speaker 1: forty minutes and they started thinking, well, we need to 1028 00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:40,960 Speaker 1: record these, and they started recording them, and somewhere along 1029 00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:44,160 Speaker 1: the way, about three or four times people talk themselves 1030 00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:46,320 Speaker 1: out of their position when you just stood there and listened, 1031 00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:48,880 Speaker 1: don't You're not You're not nudging them, and you're not 1032 00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:52,040 Speaker 1: challenging them, You're just letting them be heard. And so 1033 00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:54,239 Speaker 1: they wanted to know what did we do there, what 1034 00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:57,000 Speaker 1: happened in that conversation that led to that? So they 1035 00:48:57,000 --> 00:49:00,480 Speaker 1: started reviewing that those specific conversations and taking bits and 1036 00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:02,560 Speaker 1: pieces and testing out was that this wasn't that, was that, 1037 00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:05,200 Speaker 1: this wasn't that. And they eventually when I met them, 1038 00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:08,360 Speaker 1: they had done seventeen thousand of these conversations and recorded 1039 00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:10,960 Speaker 1: on the video and they had a b tested their 1040 00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:13,760 Speaker 1: way to a technique that was so powerful that while 1041 00:49:13,880 --> 00:49:16,080 Speaker 1: I went there several times and went door to door 1042 00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:17,919 Speaker 1: with them everything, but every time I went there would 1043 00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:20,280 Speaker 1: be scientists there, there'd be activists from around the world 1044 00:49:20,280 --> 00:49:22,319 Speaker 1: there because they were like, what have you done? What 1045 00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:25,680 Speaker 1: have you discovered? And it's very powerful. And over the 1046 00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:27,600 Speaker 1: course of writing the book, the research was done a 1047 00:49:27,640 --> 00:49:29,840 Speaker 1: couple different times on them, and they found the numbers. 1048 00:49:29,880 --> 00:49:32,200 Speaker 1: You're talking about twelve ten or twelve percent success, right, 1049 00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:35,600 Speaker 1: And the method is very similar. You only really know 1050 00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:37,640 Speaker 1: two of the steps, but you know it's about ten steps. 1051 00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:39,600 Speaker 1: If you wanted to do it the full thing The 1052 00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:42,200 Speaker 1: most important aspect of this is non judgmental listening and 1053 00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:45,719 Speaker 1: non judgmental listening and holding. You're gonna hold space to 1054 00:49:45,760 --> 00:49:48,160 Speaker 1: let the other person explore how they arrived at their 1055 00:49:48,200 --> 00:49:51,279 Speaker 1: current position. In other words, you're going to help them 1056 00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:56,719 Speaker 1: be very self reflective and figure out their thought problems. 1057 00:49:56,719 --> 00:49:58,840 Speaker 1: It's probably good to give you a foundation of what motivational, 1058 00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:01,799 Speaker 1: what motivated reasoning is right here. So you know, when 1059 00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:03,719 Speaker 1: somebody's falling in love with someone and you ask them 1060 00:50:03,719 --> 00:50:05,440 Speaker 1: like why do you like them? Like why you why 1061 00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:07,040 Speaker 1: are you going to date this person? And they'll say 1062 00:50:07,239 --> 00:50:08,799 Speaker 1: something like the way they talked, the way they walked, 1063 00:50:08,800 --> 00:50:11,160 Speaker 1: where they cut their food, the uh, the music they're 1064 00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:13,560 Speaker 1: introducing me to. When that same person is breaking up 1065 00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:15,319 Speaker 1: with that same person, you ask why you're breaking up 1066 00:50:15,320 --> 00:50:17,759 Speaker 1: with them, they'll say things like, well, the way they talk, 1067 00:50:17,840 --> 00:50:19,279 Speaker 1: the way they walked, where they cut their food, the 1068 00:50:19,600 --> 00:50:21,320 Speaker 1: dumb music they made me listen to. It. So reasons 1069 00:50:21,400 --> 00:50:23,600 Speaker 1: for what will come, reasons against when the motivation to 1070 00:50:23,719 --> 00:50:26,920 Speaker 1: search for reasons that will I rationalize and justify your 1071 00:50:26,920 --> 00:50:30,239 Speaker 1: position change. As you've said all throughout our conversation, we're 1072 00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:32,160 Speaker 1: often are very unaware of that and if someone comes 1073 00:50:32,200 --> 00:50:34,360 Speaker 1: along and gives you an opportunity to self reflecting a 1074 00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:36,400 Speaker 1: way where you will go through your reasoning process, you 1075 00:50:36,400 --> 00:50:41,160 Speaker 1: will often start to feel moments of dissonance and question yourself. 1076 00:50:41,640 --> 00:50:44,080 Speaker 1: And as long as the other party isn't is allowing 1077 00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:46,439 Speaker 1: you to save face. And it's just non judgment and listening. 1078 00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:48,839 Speaker 1: That's a big component of this and their technique. They'll 1079 00:50:48,840 --> 00:50:50,840 Speaker 1: open up and say, okay, we're talking about that that 1080 00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:53,399 Speaker 1: same sex marriage or transgender bathroom laws or something. They're 1081 00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:55,640 Speaker 1: very political organizations, so the sort of the topics they cover, 1082 00:50:56,160 --> 00:50:58,000 Speaker 1: they'll ask a person this is this is the biggest 1083 00:50:58,040 --> 00:51:00,239 Speaker 1: part of everything, and this I urge every you wanted 1084 00:51:00,239 --> 00:51:02,000 Speaker 1: to try this out on yourself and other people. You 1085 00:51:02,000 --> 00:51:03,439 Speaker 1: can just do it on a movie like the last 1086 00:51:03,480 --> 00:51:05,480 Speaker 1: movie that you watch. Let's what's last movie you watched? 1087 00:51:06,719 --> 00:51:10,840 Speaker 1: The Adam Project? Okay, the Adam Project. Did you like it? Yeah? 1088 00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:16,400 Speaker 1: Ryan Reynolds boom. It's so easy to say I liked it. Okay. 1089 00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:18,759 Speaker 1: Now I ask on a scale from zero to ten, 1090 00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:20,200 Speaker 1: like if you're a movie review or what would you 1091 00:51:20,200 --> 00:51:23,560 Speaker 1: give it? Six? Seven? Okay? Why why does six feel 1092 00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:26,000 Speaker 1: like the right number? Um, it's not a great movie. 1093 00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:28,800 Speaker 1: It's not The Godfather, but it was entertaining and silly 1094 00:51:28,880 --> 00:51:32,359 Speaker 1: and fun. You like The Godfather, you know that's a ten. Yeah, 1095 00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:34,200 Speaker 1: you know what what do you think is the Godfather 1096 00:51:34,239 --> 00:51:38,000 Speaker 1: has that this movie doesn't. It's much more sophisticated. It 1097 00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:41,839 Speaker 1: tells a much more interesting tell. It's the characters are 1098 00:51:41,920 --> 00:51:46,160 Speaker 1: much more fleshed out. They're more interesting. Um, the violence 1099 00:51:46,320 --> 00:51:49,200 Speaker 1: is is gripping, whereas the violence and this is sort 1100 00:51:49,239 --> 00:51:51,960 Speaker 1: of cartoony. So we're gonna step out of that conversation 1101 00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:54,239 Speaker 1: when we come back to it. But now what this 1102 00:51:54,280 --> 00:51:56,200 Speaker 1: is what I'm doing. I'm listening to you. I'm not 1103 00:51:56,320 --> 00:51:58,360 Speaker 1: judging you, and I'm giving you a chance to actually 1104 00:51:58,360 --> 00:52:01,239 Speaker 1: explore the reasoning and at and and your values are 1105 00:52:01,239 --> 00:52:02,960 Speaker 1: starting to come up and things that are unique to 1106 00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:04,920 Speaker 1: you and things you like about the world are a 1107 00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:06,600 Speaker 1: lot of times this is the first time a person 1108 00:52:06,600 --> 00:52:08,799 Speaker 1: has ever even experienced that. And this is a moment 1109 00:52:08,840 --> 00:52:10,879 Speaker 1: for you to start to understand yourself in a certain way. 1110 00:52:11,200 --> 00:52:13,319 Speaker 1: And a conversation about a political issue you might start 1111 00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:15,880 Speaker 1: pulling in things about where this actually, you know, the 1112 00:52:15,920 --> 00:52:17,600 Speaker 1: first time you ever heard about this thing, and then 1113 00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:19,600 Speaker 1: will become you see it superceived wisdom or you're being 1114 00:52:19,600 --> 00:52:22,640 Speaker 1: influenced by others, and then all that comes into it's 1115 00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:25,040 Speaker 1: very easy for you to extract that emotion and tell 1116 00:52:25,040 --> 00:52:26,680 Speaker 1: me what you felt. I liked it, I didn't like it. 1117 00:52:27,000 --> 00:52:28,960 Speaker 1: When I ask you to rationalize and justify it for 1118 00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:30,800 Speaker 1: me and come up and go through your own personal 1119 00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:34,120 Speaker 1: reasoning process, not my reasoning process. This is a unique 1120 00:52:34,120 --> 00:52:35,440 Speaker 1: experience for a lot of people. And then the other 1121 00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:37,560 Speaker 1: thing I can do is say you give it a six? 1122 00:52:38,120 --> 00:52:41,839 Speaker 1: How come not say a four? You know, under five 1123 00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:45,120 Speaker 1: I would think is something I didn't especially like. You know, 1124 00:52:45,200 --> 00:52:47,239 Speaker 1: I smiled and laughed throughout it, and it get me 1125 00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:50,600 Speaker 1: up detained for ninety minutes. That's and my nephews, that's 1126 00:52:50,600 --> 00:52:53,400 Speaker 1: all I'm looking at, you see. And so we're getting deeper, 1127 00:52:53,440 --> 00:52:55,440 Speaker 1: more and deeper deeper into the things that you you 1128 00:52:55,480 --> 00:52:58,200 Speaker 1: look for entertainment, but we're talking about a political issue. 1129 00:52:58,600 --> 00:53:00,680 Speaker 1: This something comes out of motivation interviewing, and they weren't 1130 00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:03,520 Speaker 1: even aware of this. The deep camps, people therapists who 1131 00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:07,040 Speaker 1: had dealt with people would come in for say alcoholism 1132 00:53:07,080 --> 00:53:09,799 Speaker 1: or drug addiction, and you know, they already are at 1133 00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:12,040 Speaker 1: a state of ambivalence. They want to do it, and 1134 00:53:12,040 --> 00:53:13,359 Speaker 1: they all and they don't want to do it. That's 1135 00:53:13,360 --> 00:53:16,520 Speaker 1: why they've come for help. But a psychologist would often 1136 00:53:16,520 --> 00:53:18,680 Speaker 1: engage in something called the writing reflect They say, okay, 1137 00:53:18,680 --> 00:53:20,120 Speaker 1: well there's here's what you're doing wrong. Is what you 1138 00:53:20,120 --> 00:53:22,839 Speaker 1: need to do. Here's what you and you you will 1139 00:53:22,880 --> 00:53:25,880 Speaker 1: feel something called reactants, which is that unhand me, you fools, 1140 00:53:25,880 --> 00:53:28,799 Speaker 1: feeling that I'm telling you what to think, I'm shaming you. 1141 00:53:29,280 --> 00:53:31,440 Speaker 1: And when you push away from it, you will start 1142 00:53:31,480 --> 00:53:36,120 Speaker 1: creating arguments to keep pursuing the thing. And they this 1143 00:53:36,200 --> 00:53:39,280 Speaker 1: was such a debacle that they developed something come motivational interviewing, 1144 00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:41,760 Speaker 1: where I would start, I would start trying to evoke 1145 00:53:41,840 --> 00:53:43,680 Speaker 1: from you counter arguments. And I can do that very 1146 00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:46,160 Speaker 1: simply with the scale, because when I ask you why 1147 00:53:46,200 --> 00:53:49,200 Speaker 1: not a four, the only thing you can really produce 1148 00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:51,359 Speaker 1: for me your reasons why you wouldn't go away from 1149 00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:54,040 Speaker 1: the six, which is also kind of going towards a seven. 1150 00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:57,239 Speaker 1: And in a political discussion, that's how they'll open it up. 1151 00:53:57,239 --> 00:54:00,080 Speaker 1: They'll say, we're talking about transitor bathroom law. Here's the 1152 00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:02,359 Speaker 1: position that I'm talking about is coming up for a vote. 1153 00:54:02,360 --> 00:54:03,960 Speaker 1: I'm wondering where you're at on that like a scale 1154 00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:05,920 Speaker 1: one was eer to ten. They'll tell them, and then 1155 00:54:05,920 --> 00:54:08,279 Speaker 1: they'll say why that, And this is a moment. We 1156 00:54:08,320 --> 00:54:10,480 Speaker 1: may stay there for twenty minutes, we go through how 1157 00:54:10,520 --> 00:54:13,960 Speaker 1: you arrived at this number. And then in that the 1158 00:54:14,040 --> 00:54:15,920 Speaker 1: deep campras to do something different from the other groups. 1159 00:54:15,920 --> 00:54:19,240 Speaker 1: They asked the personal if they've had a personal experience 1160 00:54:19,239 --> 00:54:23,760 Speaker 1: with this issue. And on the LGBT same sex marriage issue, 1161 00:54:24,160 --> 00:54:27,040 Speaker 1: what seemed to have come up time and again was hey, 1162 00:54:27,160 --> 00:54:29,520 Speaker 1: is there anybody gain your family? Do you want them 1163 00:54:29,560 --> 00:54:32,120 Speaker 1: to have find love? Do you want them to find happiness? 1164 00:54:32,200 --> 00:54:36,360 Speaker 1: And suddenly when it becomes personal, the political issue gets inverted. 1165 00:54:36,400 --> 00:54:38,080 Speaker 1: That's right. You start really realizing how much of this 1166 00:54:38,120 --> 00:54:40,319 Speaker 1: is abstraction, how much of this has received wisdom, how 1167 00:54:40,360 --> 00:54:43,160 Speaker 1: much of this is political signaling our group I inter singly, 1168 00:54:43,760 --> 00:54:46,279 Speaker 1: and not every time, but many times people who will 1169 00:54:46,320 --> 00:54:48,640 Speaker 1: have a personal experience related to the issue, and that 1170 00:54:48,680 --> 00:54:51,480 Speaker 1: personal experience really issue will create massive amounts of cognitive 1171 00:54:51,480 --> 00:54:53,920 Speaker 1: dissonance on the position I just gave you. There's a 1172 00:54:53,920 --> 00:54:56,640 Speaker 1: phrase which I was going to mention later, but I 1173 00:54:56,719 --> 00:55:01,759 Speaker 1: have to share it. Excruciating disequal a brim is that 1174 00:55:01,880 --> 00:55:05,520 Speaker 1: how you ultimately get to a point where either somebody 1175 00:55:05,640 --> 00:55:08,560 Speaker 1: changes their perspective or or something breaks. This is how 1176 00:55:08,560 --> 00:55:10,600 Speaker 1: we change our minds on everything, Like we're always changing 1177 00:55:10,600 --> 00:55:13,239 Speaker 1: your minds at all times, like the everything is provisional 1178 00:55:13,480 --> 00:55:15,680 Speaker 1: until yeah, and we don't we're not always We're totally 1179 00:55:15,719 --> 00:55:16,880 Speaker 1: not aware of it most of the time. But this 1180 00:55:16,920 --> 00:55:18,920 Speaker 1: comes to the work of a lot of psychologists. But 1181 00:55:18,920 --> 00:55:21,760 Speaker 1: I focus in on p J because there's two mechanisms, 1182 00:55:21,840 --> 00:55:26,279 Speaker 1: assimilation and accommodation. Assimilation is uh when something's ambiguous or 1183 00:55:26,360 --> 00:55:29,000 Speaker 1: uncertain you when you interpret in a way that says basically, 1184 00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:31,360 Speaker 1: everything I thought and felt and believed before now I 1185 00:55:31,360 --> 00:55:33,560 Speaker 1: still think, feeling, believe it. This is just a modified 1186 00:55:33,600 --> 00:55:38,359 Speaker 1: a little bit with you assimilated into your current model reality. Accommodation, 1187 00:55:38,400 --> 00:55:40,200 Speaker 1: on the other hand, is when there's so many anomalies 1188 00:55:40,200 --> 00:55:43,440 Speaker 1: build up or this is so counterattitudinal or counterfactual what 1189 00:55:43,520 --> 00:55:46,200 Speaker 1: you currently have in your model reality are they they 1190 00:55:46,239 --> 00:55:48,520 Speaker 1: had called it a schema, you must accommodate us. You 1191 00:55:48,520 --> 00:55:50,439 Speaker 1: can think of it like a child sees a dog 1192 00:55:50,520 --> 00:55:52,920 Speaker 1: for the first time and they're like, what is that? 1193 00:55:53,000 --> 00:55:55,920 Speaker 1: You say, it's a dog in their minds? Something categorical, 1194 00:55:56,080 --> 00:55:58,640 Speaker 1: something like it's got four legs, walks on four legs, 1195 00:55:58,840 --> 00:56:01,680 Speaker 1: it's not wearing any clothes, as it's furry as a tail, 1196 00:56:02,360 --> 00:56:05,000 Speaker 1: it's non human dog. And then if they see like 1197 00:56:05,040 --> 00:56:09,160 Speaker 1: a a orange dog or a you know, a speckled dog, 1198 00:56:09,239 --> 00:56:11,760 Speaker 1: they can just say they can assimilate that and different 1199 00:56:11,840 --> 00:56:13,960 Speaker 1: versions of the thing. I already understand. When they see 1200 00:56:14,000 --> 00:56:16,920 Speaker 1: a horse, they might point at it and go big dog, 1201 00:56:17,520 --> 00:56:21,120 Speaker 1: and they're really is an attempt to assimilate, Like I'm 1202 00:56:21,120 --> 00:56:24,879 Speaker 1: interpreting it and look, it's got four legs, it walks 1203 00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:27,000 Speaker 1: on four legs, it's non human, it's not wearing clothes. 1204 00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:29,319 Speaker 1: What's going on here? And he said, no, no no, no, 1205 00:56:29,480 --> 00:56:32,600 Speaker 1: that's not a dog, that's a horse. This requires an 1206 00:56:32,600 --> 00:56:34,799 Speaker 1: accommodation moment because you need to create a category that 1207 00:56:34,840 --> 00:56:37,600 Speaker 1: both horses and dogs can fit with it an overarching category. 1208 00:56:37,960 --> 00:56:40,120 Speaker 1: And we're doing that all the time. Like there are 1209 00:56:40,120 --> 00:56:43,600 Speaker 1: moments where we I think of things like that have happened. Uh, politically, 1210 00:56:43,600 --> 00:56:44,759 Speaker 1: I don't know how politically you want to give a 1211 00:56:44,840 --> 00:56:47,960 Speaker 1: let's like think about the insurrection right the For a 1212 00:56:48,000 --> 00:56:50,120 Speaker 1: lot of people, I have positive attitudes toward a certain 1213 00:56:50,160 --> 00:56:54,160 Speaker 1: political persuasion, and people within that positive attitude space did 1214 00:56:54,200 --> 00:56:56,240 Speaker 1: something I don't like. So I have these two feelings. 1215 00:56:56,280 --> 00:56:58,640 Speaker 1: I'm I feel negatively and I feel positively about what 1216 00:56:58,680 --> 00:57:03,120 Speaker 1: has happened. You could accommodate and say, well, it looks 1217 00:57:03,160 --> 00:57:06,160 Speaker 1: like people who share my political views sometimes do bad 1218 00:57:06,200 --> 00:57:08,000 Speaker 1: things and I need to like have a more complex 1219 00:57:08,080 --> 00:57:11,480 Speaker 1: view of things. Or you could assimilate, which is often 1220 00:57:11,480 --> 00:57:14,200 Speaker 1: how we get into conspiratorial thinking, and say, well, I'm 1221 00:57:14,280 --> 00:57:16,040 Speaker 1: looking at this. What if they didn't do that at all? 1222 00:57:16,040 --> 00:57:18,120 Speaker 1: What if those were actors? What if those were people 1223 00:57:18,160 --> 00:57:20,480 Speaker 1: who are pretending to be people that agree with me? 1224 00:57:20,640 --> 00:57:23,400 Speaker 1: So how do you explain from that? Here's the fascinating thing. 1225 00:57:23,840 --> 00:57:30,520 Speaker 1: There was widespread disapproval, especially from Republican leadership, and then 1226 00:57:30,800 --> 00:57:35,840 Speaker 1: very quickly, within a sixty days, maybe even less thirty days, 1227 00:57:35,880 --> 00:57:38,000 Speaker 1: that faded and then it was just a bunch of 1228 00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:42,120 Speaker 1: tourists passing through UH through Congress. So was it just 1229 00:57:42,280 --> 00:57:46,400 Speaker 1: strictly that sort of tribal thing that we needed to 1230 00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:50,840 Speaker 1: to everybody to manage people just reverted back to their 1231 00:57:50,840 --> 00:57:54,640 Speaker 1: tribalism because there was some consensus for a brief period 1232 00:57:54,680 --> 00:57:57,880 Speaker 1: and then it went straight back to partisan politics. Was 1233 00:57:57,920 --> 00:57:59,480 Speaker 1: that there's a there was a long stretch, and there 1234 00:57:59,480 --> 00:58:02,840 Speaker 1: always is where you're you're being pulled in every direction. Uh, 1235 00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:04,480 Speaker 1: you know, I don't want to make a blanket statement. 1236 00:58:04,600 --> 00:58:06,920 Speaker 1: Most people are pretty rational about what happened there. But 1237 00:58:06,920 --> 00:58:09,280 Speaker 1: there's a certain ports and the population that went very 1238 00:58:09,280 --> 00:58:14,200 Speaker 1: conspiratorial with it, and there is a deep crisis of 1239 00:58:14,240 --> 00:58:15,840 Speaker 1: how to make sense of the world and where should 1240 00:58:15,880 --> 00:58:19,440 Speaker 1: I put my allegiances and where my values expressed. And 1241 00:58:19,480 --> 00:58:22,280 Speaker 1: what we would rather do is assimilate if we can 1242 00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:24,320 Speaker 1: get away with it, because that allows us to maintain 1243 00:58:24,320 --> 00:58:27,160 Speaker 1: our current model and move forward. And if we can 1244 00:58:27,200 --> 00:58:29,360 Speaker 1: find an elite who says, no, it's okay to think 1245 00:58:29,360 --> 00:58:31,240 Speaker 1: what you think. In fact, I agree with you. If 1246 00:58:31,240 --> 00:58:33,240 Speaker 1: I can find peers who will who will support me 1247 00:58:33,280 --> 00:58:35,520 Speaker 1: in that, if I can find groups having conversations on 1248 00:58:35,560 --> 00:58:38,080 Speaker 1: the Internet who let me do this, I'll assimilate and 1249 00:58:38,080 --> 00:58:40,360 Speaker 1: I'll stay within it, and as they say in psychology, 1250 00:58:40,400 --> 00:58:43,160 Speaker 1: my social network will reassert its influence. So one of 1251 00:58:43,160 --> 00:58:47,080 Speaker 1: the interesting things about the shift in UH same sex 1252 00:58:47,160 --> 00:58:50,800 Speaker 1: marriage opinion the US is how sudden it was, and 1253 00:58:50,840 --> 00:58:54,240 Speaker 1: when we compare it to things like abortion rights, Vietnam, 1254 00:58:54,480 --> 00:58:58,080 Speaker 1: race voting, even marijuana, all those things seem to have 1255 00:58:58,120 --> 00:59:02,320 Speaker 1: taken much longer or why is that? That was actually 1256 00:59:02,400 --> 00:59:04,080 Speaker 1: the first question I had. I thought that that's what 1257 00:59:04,120 --> 00:59:06,840 Speaker 1: the book was going to be about. There's a dozen 1258 00:59:06,880 --> 00:59:08,560 Speaker 1: different answers of that question. That was sort of a 1259 00:59:08,600 --> 00:59:13,280 Speaker 1: confluence of psychological mechanisms. The most influential part of his contact, right. 1260 00:59:13,920 --> 00:59:17,120 Speaker 1: There's an idea in psychology called pluralistic ignorance, where you know, 1261 00:59:17,360 --> 00:59:19,120 Speaker 1: you ask a lot of people have will have a 1262 00:59:19,120 --> 00:59:22,880 Speaker 1: certain feeling inside of them, attitude or value, and they'll 1263 00:59:22,880 --> 00:59:24,720 Speaker 1: feel like that the only person within their community who 1264 00:59:24,720 --> 00:59:27,520 Speaker 1: has that feeling, and unless you surface the norm in 1265 00:59:27,560 --> 00:59:29,000 Speaker 1: some way, they are not They won't be aware that 1266 00:59:29,000 --> 00:59:30,480 Speaker 1: there are so many other people who feel the same 1267 00:59:30,480 --> 00:59:33,800 Speaker 1: way they feel. Surface the norm, surface the norm, as 1268 00:59:33,840 --> 00:59:36,640 Speaker 1: they put it. When I was asking political scientists about 1269 00:59:37,000 --> 00:59:39,880 Speaker 1: um the shift and attitudes about same sex marriage, they 1270 00:59:39,920 --> 00:59:41,800 Speaker 1: kept telling me this was the fastest recording shifts in 1271 00:59:41,800 --> 00:59:44,080 Speaker 1: public opinion since we've been recording this since the twenties 1272 00:59:44,200 --> 00:59:47,760 Speaker 1: and since then. There was an attitude shift on COVID nineteam, 1273 00:59:47,760 --> 00:59:49,280 Speaker 1: which I put in the book that was a little 1274 00:59:49,280 --> 00:59:53,120 Speaker 1: bit faster, but in this case in which direction towards vaccination. 1275 00:59:53,280 --> 00:59:56,120 Speaker 1: Vaccination yet which is kind of interesting because there was 1276 00:59:56,160 --> 01:00:00,640 Speaker 1: an anti vaxor movement pre COVID that was really kind fringe, 1277 01:00:00,800 --> 01:00:02,480 Speaker 1: and I went to one of the conventions for the 1278 01:00:02,520 --> 01:00:03,800 Speaker 1: book best not in the book. It was part of 1279 01:00:03,800 --> 01:00:06,600 Speaker 1: the cut material, the Lancet article on what is an 1280 01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:09,800 Speaker 1: m R M or R m R and remember which 1281 01:00:09,840 --> 01:00:15,320 Speaker 1: the Musles rebella MOMPS vaccine, which was substantly completely debunked. 1282 01:00:15,600 --> 01:00:18,440 Speaker 1: But what ended up happening is that group seems to 1283 01:00:18,600 --> 01:00:23,200 Speaker 1: gain a little bit of momentum, the anti vaxers, and 1284 01:00:23,280 --> 01:00:29,920 Speaker 1: yet even around the world most countries are vaccinated, most 1285 01:00:30,000 --> 01:00:33,160 Speaker 1: wealthy developed countries that with access to the vaccine, the 1286 01:00:33,280 --> 01:00:38,640 Speaker 1: US is a laggered um, less vaccinations, less boosts, and 1287 01:00:38,800 --> 01:00:43,680 Speaker 1: the most per capita deaths of any advanced economy, which 1288 01:00:43,760 --> 01:00:46,320 Speaker 1: kind of raises the question how much of an impact 1289 01:00:46,320 --> 01:00:49,080 Speaker 1: did the anti vaxers have, even though a lot of 1290 01:00:49,080 --> 01:00:51,960 Speaker 1: people eventually came around and got the vaccine. The reason 1291 01:00:51,960 --> 01:00:53,480 Speaker 1: I like to talk about flat earthers so much is 1292 01:00:53,480 --> 01:00:55,840 Speaker 1: because the same psychological mechanisms are at play and everything 1293 01:00:55,880 --> 01:00:57,680 Speaker 1: else that we like to talk about. But most most 1294 01:00:57,720 --> 01:01:00,680 Speaker 1: people assume they would never be a flat right, But 1295 01:01:00,800 --> 01:01:04,840 Speaker 1: you don't necessarily get that uniformity when it comes to 1296 01:01:04,880 --> 01:01:07,800 Speaker 1: things like same sex matters or or any or any 1297 01:01:07,840 --> 01:01:12,040 Speaker 1: political issue, that anything becomes charged politically. And I use 1298 01:01:12,120 --> 01:01:14,520 Speaker 1: flat earthers so much because they're pretty much neutral and 1299 01:01:14,520 --> 01:01:16,320 Speaker 1: people can feel like they have some distance from it, 1300 01:01:16,360 --> 01:01:18,240 Speaker 1: and the mechanisms. You can see those mechanisms at play, 1301 01:01:18,240 --> 01:01:20,400 Speaker 1: and then I can say, and that's also in this 1302 01:01:20,480 --> 01:01:22,960 Speaker 1: and you can see how it works the with same 1303 01:01:23,000 --> 01:01:26,000 Speaker 1: sex marriage. That it's almost impossible to believe this as 1304 01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:28,160 Speaker 1: a person talking to a microphone right now, in this 1305 01:01:28,200 --> 01:01:32,640 Speaker 1: modern moment, like it wasn't very long ago. The people 1306 01:01:32,720 --> 01:01:35,320 Speaker 1: argued about this as vehemently as they argue about like 1307 01:01:36,000 --> 01:01:38,200 Speaker 1: immigration and gun control and everything else that's that's a 1308 01:01:38,200 --> 01:01:41,800 Speaker 1: wedge issue today. And there were articles that would be 1309 01:01:41,840 --> 01:01:43,840 Speaker 1: that would come out, but like this is something we'll 1310 01:01:43,880 --> 01:01:45,680 Speaker 1: never get over. You should and you shouldn't talk about 1311 01:01:45,720 --> 01:01:49,000 Speaker 1: this and Thanksgiving kind of things, right, And then the 1312 01:01:49,040 --> 01:01:52,240 Speaker 1: course of about twelve years, but very rapidly, of course, 1313 01:01:52,240 --> 01:01:54,320 Speaker 1: with three or four years, we went from more than 1314 01:01:54,360 --> 01:01:56,400 Speaker 1: sixty percent of the country opposed to six in the 1315 01:01:56,400 --> 01:02:00,560 Speaker 1: country in favor and around two thousand twelve ish, and 1316 01:02:00,640 --> 01:02:03,560 Speaker 1: the it seemed like, how could this possibly have happened 1317 01:02:03,600 --> 01:02:05,320 Speaker 1: where it come from. And I want to understand that too, 1318 01:02:05,320 --> 01:02:07,800 Speaker 1: because I thought if I could take most of the 1319 01:02:08,040 --> 01:02:09,560 Speaker 1: of the country and put them on a time machine 1320 01:02:09,560 --> 01:02:11,360 Speaker 1: and send them back a decade, would they argue with 1321 01:02:11,400 --> 01:02:13,360 Speaker 1: themselves and what happened in between these two moments, and 1322 01:02:13,400 --> 01:02:14,960 Speaker 1: if they were going to change their mind about this, 1323 01:02:15,360 --> 01:02:17,720 Speaker 1: what was preventing them from changing their mind the whole time. 1324 01:02:18,640 --> 01:02:20,240 Speaker 1: One answer to that is that a lot of things 1325 01:02:20,320 --> 01:02:22,440 Speaker 1: that have changed when it comes to like social issues, 1326 01:02:23,000 --> 01:02:26,160 Speaker 1: people were separate from one another in social contexts, whereas 1327 01:02:26,280 --> 01:02:29,360 Speaker 1: with same sex marriage and other LGBTQ issues, coming out 1328 01:02:29,400 --> 01:02:31,240 Speaker 1: was a very huge part of that. Any movement that 1329 01:02:31,440 --> 01:02:35,120 Speaker 1: urged people to reveal their identities and to live openly 1330 01:02:35,680 --> 01:02:38,480 Speaker 1: allow people the opportunity to go, well, oh my god, 1331 01:02:38,480 --> 01:02:40,000 Speaker 1: I have a family member like this. I have a 1332 01:02:40,040 --> 01:02:42,280 Speaker 1: person who I care about who's being affected by this issue. 1333 01:02:42,480 --> 01:02:46,800 Speaker 1: I have people who my plumber, my my hairdresser, my 1334 01:02:46,840 --> 01:02:49,680 Speaker 1: brother and my brother, all this whole world, and then 1335 01:02:49,720 --> 01:02:53,000 Speaker 1: that contact was part of that, right, I think that 1336 01:02:53,440 --> 01:02:57,040 Speaker 1: is the key to this being so stealthy. Why nobody 1337 01:02:57,080 --> 01:03:01,240 Speaker 1: saw it Because you go from I know a guy 1338 01:03:01,360 --> 01:03:04,160 Speaker 1: who's gay, or I know a woman who's gay too. 1339 01:03:04,400 --> 01:03:06,959 Speaker 1: I know lots of people who are gay, and over 1340 01:03:07,000 --> 01:03:11,520 Speaker 1: that ensuing decade and the decade before, at least from 1341 01:03:11,520 --> 01:03:15,840 Speaker 1: my perspective, it felt like lots of people both private 1342 01:03:15,960 --> 01:03:19,400 Speaker 1: and public personas were coming out as getting and you know, 1343 01:03:19,480 --> 01:03:21,880 Speaker 1: you had Ellen come out, which was a big deal, 1344 01:03:22,000 --> 01:03:24,760 Speaker 1: and you had Will and Grace on TV. It seemed 1345 01:03:24,800 --> 01:03:27,560 Speaker 1: like it was just, you know, the momentum was building 1346 01:03:27,640 --> 01:03:30,080 Speaker 1: and it was an exchange like that. And you talked 1347 01:03:30,080 --> 01:03:33,240 Speaker 1: about in the book where where it's the cascade is 1348 01:03:33,320 --> 01:03:36,960 Speaker 1: waiting for the network to be ready. That's EXAs where 1349 01:03:36,960 --> 01:03:39,880 Speaker 1: I'm headed up. Thanks for kicking me over to The 1350 01:03:39,960 --> 01:03:42,440 Speaker 1: culture is being influenced by the social change, and then 1351 01:03:42,440 --> 01:03:44,920 Speaker 1: the social change in reflection influence of the culture, and 1352 01:03:44,960 --> 01:03:48,440 Speaker 1: this back and forth is what creates a staggered acceleration 1353 01:03:48,480 --> 01:03:51,800 Speaker 1: of the social change. Right, But what's deep within that 1354 01:03:51,880 --> 01:03:54,960 Speaker 1: is understood a network science as cascades. And the best 1355 01:03:54,960 --> 01:03:57,600 Speaker 1: way I could like quickly explain what a cascade is is, Uh, 1356 01:03:57,920 --> 01:03:59,640 Speaker 1: have you ever been to a party and everything seems 1357 01:03:59,640 --> 01:04:00,560 Speaker 1: to be going up k and then all of a 1358 01:04:00,560 --> 01:04:03,520 Speaker 1: sudden everybody leaves and you're like, what happened? Especially if 1359 01:04:03,520 --> 01:04:05,840 Speaker 1: with the host, or have you ever like waited to 1360 01:04:05,840 --> 01:04:07,880 Speaker 1: get into a restaurant, or if you remember back in 1361 01:04:08,400 --> 01:04:11,240 Speaker 1: a university setting, you're waiting to get into a classroom 1362 01:04:11,360 --> 01:04:13,440 Speaker 1: and uh, there's just a big line of people, and 1363 01:04:13,480 --> 01:04:15,760 Speaker 1: then the door opens up and you could have gone 1364 01:04:15,760 --> 01:04:19,280 Speaker 1: in at any time. These are examples of cascades, up 1365 01:04:19,320 --> 01:04:22,360 Speaker 1: cascades and down castkades. So in a school setting or 1366 01:04:22,360 --> 01:04:24,600 Speaker 1: a restaurant setting, you're waiting a line. The first person 1367 01:04:24,640 --> 01:04:27,280 Speaker 1: that shows up, they have an internal signal because they 1368 01:04:27,320 --> 01:04:30,160 Speaker 1: have no information the doors closed. So maybe in the 1369 01:04:30,160 --> 01:04:32,200 Speaker 1: past they tried to go to a classroom and they 1370 01:04:32,200 --> 01:04:33,760 Speaker 1: open the door and everybody turned and looked at them, 1371 01:04:33,760 --> 01:04:35,920 Speaker 1: and they felt real weird about it. Maybe they just 1372 01:04:35,960 --> 01:04:37,960 Speaker 1: have a certain kind of social anxiety. There are all 1373 01:04:37,960 --> 01:04:40,320 Speaker 1: sorts of nature nurture things to give them an internal 1374 01:04:40,320 --> 01:04:42,640 Speaker 1: signal that says I should wait and see what's going on. 1375 01:04:42,720 --> 01:04:44,320 Speaker 1: So they take out their phone, they're playing with it. 1376 01:04:44,880 --> 01:04:46,960 Speaker 1: The second person that shows up, they don't just have 1377 01:04:47,000 --> 01:04:49,360 Speaker 1: an internal signal. They have one human being who seems 1378 01:04:49,400 --> 01:04:51,360 Speaker 1: to be waiting and maybe they know something I don't, 1379 01:04:51,840 --> 01:04:54,600 Speaker 1: So whatever internal signal they have is magnified by that. 1380 01:04:54,840 --> 01:04:57,080 Speaker 1: They start to wait. Once you show up at a 1381 01:04:57,120 --> 01:04:59,080 Speaker 1: door and there are two people waiting and you don't, 1382 01:04:59,480 --> 01:05:02,080 Speaker 1: you're you're pretty sure you're gonna wait too. Once there 1383 01:05:02,080 --> 01:05:04,520 Speaker 1: are three people waiting at a door, it's almost inevitable 1384 01:05:04,520 --> 01:05:06,080 Speaker 1: you're gonna get a line of people waiting because they 1385 01:05:06,120 --> 01:05:08,640 Speaker 1: assume they're part of something, and everybody knows something they don't, 1386 01:05:09,000 --> 01:05:10,720 Speaker 1: and you're not with a cascade. The only thing that 1387 01:05:10,720 --> 01:05:13,120 Speaker 1: will break the cascade is new information out of the system. 1388 01:05:13,160 --> 01:05:15,080 Speaker 1: The door opens up and like the professor's like, why 1389 01:05:15,080 --> 01:05:17,200 Speaker 1: are you waiting? Or somebody who looks at their watch 1390 01:05:17,280 --> 01:05:19,640 Speaker 1: and it's like, I figure we should have been in 1391 01:05:19,640 --> 01:05:22,720 Speaker 1: here by now. Or you could have a real rabble rouse, 1392 01:05:22,800 --> 01:05:24,800 Speaker 1: or you could have a subversive element. Somebody who's a punk. 1393 01:05:24,840 --> 01:05:26,800 Speaker 1: They have a low threshold for conformity, you know, they're 1394 01:05:26,800 --> 01:05:28,120 Speaker 1: they're like, I don't care what people think of me. 1395 01:05:28,120 --> 01:05:30,280 Speaker 1: I'm gonna open the door, and that person will lead 1396 01:05:30,280 --> 01:05:32,480 Speaker 1: everybody in. So what you end up here with our 1397 01:05:32,520 --> 01:05:35,760 Speaker 1: thresholds of conformity. Uh. Some people need only a few 1398 01:05:35,800 --> 01:05:37,520 Speaker 1: people around them to do something before they do it. 1399 01:05:37,520 --> 01:05:40,120 Speaker 1: Some people need a lot. And any population is going 1400 01:05:40,200 --> 01:05:42,240 Speaker 1: to have a large mix of people who have different 1401 01:05:42,240 --> 01:05:45,000 Speaker 1: thresholds of conformity. If you think of it like an 1402 01:05:45,000 --> 01:05:48,400 Speaker 1: old chemistry molecule with like balls and sticks connect to it, 1403 01:05:48,800 --> 01:05:50,840 Speaker 1: each person is a node and each node has a 1404 01:05:50,840 --> 01:05:54,320 Speaker 1: different threshold of conformity, and that threshold conformity is influenced 1405 01:05:54,360 --> 01:05:56,120 Speaker 1: by how many people they know, so how many sticks 1406 01:05:56,120 --> 01:05:59,040 Speaker 1: are connected to balls around them, and you end up 1407 01:05:59,040 --> 01:06:01,160 Speaker 1: with clumps and claw sters of people who have different 1408 01:06:01,160 --> 01:06:04,080 Speaker 1: thresholds as a cluster. Let's say you're at a party 1409 01:06:04,560 --> 01:06:07,000 Speaker 1: and they want to go because you know they're they're 1410 01:06:07,000 --> 01:06:08,600 Speaker 1: tired of being there, they have work in the morning 1411 01:06:08,680 --> 01:06:10,120 Speaker 1: or whatever. But there are other people in the group 1412 01:06:10,160 --> 01:06:12,400 Speaker 1: who are like I would like to go, but like, 1413 01:06:12,480 --> 01:06:14,720 Speaker 1: I can't just be the first person that leaves. So 1414 01:06:14,800 --> 01:06:16,640 Speaker 1: the person who has a reason to leave, or they 1415 01:06:16,680 --> 01:06:19,280 Speaker 1: just don't care what other people think they leave the party. 1416 01:06:19,560 --> 01:06:21,720 Speaker 1: That that encourages the next group of people who needed 1417 01:06:21,760 --> 01:06:24,000 Speaker 1: one more person to back them up to leave. Now 1418 01:06:24,080 --> 01:06:26,080 Speaker 1: there are people who actually did. They wanted to stay 1419 01:06:26,080 --> 01:06:28,840 Speaker 1: at the party, but hey, if everybody else is leaving 1420 01:06:28,840 --> 01:06:30,600 Speaker 1: but they're threshold conform you just got me out there, 1421 01:06:30,640 --> 01:06:32,520 Speaker 1: like I should probably go. And then now you have 1422 01:06:32,520 --> 01:06:34,560 Speaker 1: the people who are really we're gonna stay all night, 1423 01:06:34,560 --> 01:06:36,160 Speaker 1: and like I guess in the last person here and 1424 01:06:36,160 --> 01:06:37,880 Speaker 1: either they spend the night on your couch or they 1425 01:06:37,920 --> 01:06:39,200 Speaker 1: leave and you're like, oh my god, what happened to 1426 01:06:39,240 --> 01:06:42,480 Speaker 1: my party? This is cascades. This is a It's a 1427 01:06:42,600 --> 01:06:44,880 Speaker 1: very fascinating part of human psychology because we're talking about 1428 01:06:45,040 --> 01:06:47,200 Speaker 1: massive groups of people, and you have a nation of people, 1429 01:06:47,280 --> 01:06:51,760 Speaker 1: you'll have massive clusters of people that will have different thresholds, 1430 01:06:51,760 --> 01:06:53,960 Speaker 1: and we often will have one in that group, many 1431 01:06:54,000 --> 01:06:57,200 Speaker 1: of them called a percolating local cluster. Anyone listening, who's 1432 01:06:57,200 --> 01:06:59,280 Speaker 1: in this world? I hope you're happy that I found 1433 01:06:59,320 --> 01:07:02,080 Speaker 1: your stuff. This stuff was totally unfamiliar to me. The 1434 01:07:02,120 --> 01:07:04,880 Speaker 1: stuff goes into like diffusion science and people studying how 1435 01:07:04,960 --> 01:07:09,640 Speaker 1: rocks sink and floating local climate. So here's the here's 1436 01:07:09,680 --> 01:07:12,960 Speaker 1: the best thing, uh, I've ever seen about to explain this, 1437 01:07:14,080 --> 01:07:18,080 Speaker 1: you're driving down this is Duncan Watts. Yes, Duncan Watts, 1438 01:07:18,480 --> 01:07:22,880 Speaker 1: the great sociologist. Everything is he is. He gave this 1439 01:07:23,040 --> 01:07:25,840 Speaker 1: example to me and thank him forever for it. You 1440 01:07:25,840 --> 01:07:28,080 Speaker 1: can imagine a road that people are driving down in 1441 01:07:28,080 --> 01:07:31,360 Speaker 1: the middle of a forest. There's uh, someone who smokes 1442 01:07:31,360 --> 01:07:33,000 Speaker 1: a cigarette on the way to wherever they're going, and 1443 01:07:33,040 --> 01:07:35,200 Speaker 1: they throw a cigarette out pretty much every time at 1444 01:07:35,240 --> 01:07:36,720 Speaker 1: a certain spot in the forest. And they've been doing 1445 01:07:36,720 --> 01:07:39,840 Speaker 1: this for years and nothing ever happens, and then one day, uh, 1446 01:07:39,880 --> 01:07:42,720 Speaker 1: they tossed that cigarette out and it causes a seven 1447 01:07:42,800 --> 01:07:46,000 Speaker 1: county fire. Now, if you look at this from a 1448 01:07:46,040 --> 01:07:48,120 Speaker 1: sort of a great Man theory of history, or you're 1449 01:07:48,120 --> 01:07:50,280 Speaker 1: looking for people who are innovators, if you look at 1450 01:07:50,320 --> 01:07:52,480 Speaker 1: the whole old tipping point models and things like that, 1451 01:07:52,520 --> 01:07:54,960 Speaker 1: you're looking for the mavens and the connectors and everything. Well, 1452 01:07:55,000 --> 01:07:57,120 Speaker 1: it turns out the science doesn't really support that very well. 1453 01:07:57,800 --> 01:08:00,000 Speaker 1: Has nothing to do with any individual being more connect 1454 01:08:00,040 --> 01:08:02,240 Speaker 1: that are more powerful or more savvy than anybody else. 1455 01:08:02,240 --> 01:08:04,320 Speaker 1: What it has to do with is the susceptibility of 1456 01:08:04,360 --> 01:08:07,320 Speaker 1: the system to anybody throwing out a cigarette, meaning how 1457 01:08:07,480 --> 01:08:11,360 Speaker 1: dry or droughts stricken, something happened in that system. What's 1458 01:08:11,360 --> 01:08:14,640 Speaker 1: going on with dry leaves, with just the vulnerability of 1459 01:08:14,640 --> 01:08:18,000 Speaker 1: that the vulnerable that's exactly how they that they're phrasing 1460 01:08:18,000 --> 01:08:20,320 Speaker 1: the youth. The vulnerability of that particular aspect of the 1461 01:08:20,360 --> 01:08:23,839 Speaker 1: network at that particular moment was quite vulnerable to any nudge, 1462 01:08:23,880 --> 01:08:27,280 Speaker 1: any impact any strike. And the thing that really struck 1463 01:08:27,320 --> 01:08:29,760 Speaker 1: me about his example was it could have been a 1464 01:08:29,760 --> 01:08:32,599 Speaker 1: cigarette he tossed out, it could have been a lightning bolt, 1465 01:08:32,640 --> 01:08:34,840 Speaker 1: it could have been a nuclear bomb. It didn't matter 1466 01:08:34,840 --> 01:08:37,200 Speaker 1: how powerful it was, and it didn't matter how connected 1467 01:08:37,200 --> 01:08:39,360 Speaker 1: the person was. You don't think of it any connection. Uh. 1468 01:08:39,439 --> 01:08:42,080 Speaker 1: In the science of that connectivity everything, it doesn't matter 1469 01:08:42,160 --> 01:08:44,599 Speaker 1: that the cluster was vulnerable at that point. And any 1470 01:08:44,760 --> 01:08:46,680 Speaker 1: complex system is going to be like the surface of 1471 01:08:46,680 --> 01:08:49,760 Speaker 1: the ocean. There are is constantly moving around. So if 1472 01:08:49,800 --> 01:08:52,680 Speaker 1: you think of that molecule model of human connectivity, it's 1473 01:08:52,720 --> 01:08:56,080 Speaker 1: constantly morphing and changing as people their relationships change and 1474 01:08:56,120 --> 01:08:58,559 Speaker 1: they move from one group to another. So the point 1475 01:08:58,640 --> 01:09:01,960 Speaker 1: that's vulnerable is all is moving. So how do you 1476 01:09:02,080 --> 01:09:05,320 Speaker 1: affect great change like same sex marriage or any other 1477 01:09:05,400 --> 01:09:07,760 Speaker 1: social issue that we've seen in the past. You have 1478 01:09:07,800 --> 01:09:11,760 Speaker 1: to strike at the system relentlessly, and if you're an individual, 1479 01:09:11,840 --> 01:09:14,120 Speaker 1: you need to get as many people on your your 1480 01:09:14,160 --> 01:09:17,640 Speaker 1: group to strike together, and because eventually you're going to 1481 01:09:17,720 --> 01:09:20,439 Speaker 1: be the lip match in the dry forest. That's the idea, 1482 01:09:20,479 --> 01:09:22,760 Speaker 1: and you have to let luck be a big part 1483 01:09:22,760 --> 01:09:24,840 Speaker 1: of it, because you're trying to find the percolating local 1484 01:09:24,880 --> 01:09:27,680 Speaker 1: cluster that will create the cascade that will cascade all 1485 01:09:27,840 --> 01:09:30,960 Speaker 1: along the network because you're different, thresholds of conformity are 1486 01:09:30,960 --> 01:09:32,719 Speaker 1: moving in and out of the networks that you're affecting. 1487 01:09:32,760 --> 01:09:35,160 Speaker 1: If you look through any of the history of people 1488 01:09:35,160 --> 01:09:37,720 Speaker 1: who who have affected great social change, especially history of 1489 01:09:37,720 --> 01:09:41,160 Speaker 1: the United States, UH, they had figured out some system 1490 01:09:41,200 --> 01:09:43,400 Speaker 1: by which to get a lot of people together to 1491 01:09:43,520 --> 01:09:46,920 Speaker 1: strike at the system relentlessly, and they were indefatigable. And 1492 01:09:46,960 --> 01:09:48,960 Speaker 1: that was the most important aspect of the whole thing. 1493 01:09:49,520 --> 01:09:51,120 Speaker 1: And there are all sorts of other ways to nudge 1494 01:09:51,160 --> 01:09:53,040 Speaker 1: and move around, but that seems to be the essence 1495 01:09:53,080 --> 01:09:57,559 Speaker 1: of it. And that example from COVID nineteen, that's what 1496 01:09:57,920 --> 01:10:00,360 Speaker 1: the fastest social change now ever recorded. They use this. 1497 01:10:00,840 --> 01:10:02,920 Speaker 1: What they did is they it was people who were 1498 01:10:03,880 --> 01:10:06,240 Speaker 1: very hesitant to get vaccinated because it was in the UK. 1499 01:10:06,840 --> 01:10:09,320 Speaker 1: People in certain religious communities were very hesitant because of 1500 01:10:09,320 --> 01:10:11,599 Speaker 1: their past with the you know, the government of the UK, 1501 01:10:11,760 --> 01:10:14,519 Speaker 1: and they didn't want to necessarily allow these government entities 1502 01:10:14,520 --> 01:10:16,280 Speaker 1: they didn't understand very well to take a needle and 1503 01:10:16,280 --> 01:10:18,280 Speaker 1: put something they didn't understand very well in their bodies. 1504 01:10:18,920 --> 01:10:24,040 Speaker 1: So organizations got together with mosques and said here's the 1505 01:10:24,080 --> 01:10:26,360 Speaker 1: sites where we'll have the vaccinations. And they they got 1506 01:10:26,360 --> 01:10:29,559 Speaker 1: the the elites within that religious community too, to be 1507 01:10:29,640 --> 01:10:31,439 Speaker 1: the first to vaccinate. And so what you end up 1508 01:10:31,439 --> 01:10:34,519 Speaker 1: with is you have this wave effect of the least 1509 01:10:34,560 --> 01:10:37,080 Speaker 1: hesitant among the most hesitants. So these are people with 1510 01:10:37,120 --> 01:10:39,479 Speaker 1: the threshold, the threshold of performity where they will go, well, 1511 01:10:39,520 --> 01:10:41,599 Speaker 1: all I need is one person I trust to do this, 1512 01:10:42,240 --> 01:10:44,599 Speaker 1: they get vaccinated. Well, that's a new wave of people 1513 01:10:44,640 --> 01:10:47,639 Speaker 1: who are vaccinated. So that next level of hesitancy says, well, 1514 01:10:47,960 --> 01:10:50,000 Speaker 1: this number of people that I trust have been vaccinated, 1515 01:10:50,040 --> 01:10:51,920 Speaker 1: I'll get vaccinated. So now you have that next level 1516 01:10:51,920 --> 01:10:54,639 Speaker 1: of hesitancy that they've been they've been saying, told two friends. 1517 01:10:54,680 --> 01:10:58,200 Speaker 1: And you eventually wave your way through the cascades so 1518 01:10:58,240 --> 01:10:59,960 Speaker 1: that when you get to that middle hump that's very 1519 01:11:00,000 --> 01:11:01,919 Speaker 1: hard to get over, you have so many people vaccinated 1520 01:11:01,920 --> 01:11:03,519 Speaker 1: around you, it seems kind of weird that you wouldn't 1521 01:11:03,520 --> 01:11:06,360 Speaker 1: be And it's okay. You only some of the holdouts 1522 01:11:06,360 --> 01:11:08,280 Speaker 1: may take forever, the last people to buy the facts 1523 01:11:08,280 --> 01:11:09,800 Speaker 1: machine or whatever, but they're in a world. But you 1524 01:11:10,720 --> 01:11:12,479 Speaker 1: people that have already, and that's what we're aiming for 1525 01:11:12,600 --> 01:11:15,320 Speaker 1: and so there are ways to UH to catalyze the 1526 01:11:15,320 --> 01:11:17,439 Speaker 1: cascade effects, but you have to you have to think 1527 01:11:17,439 --> 01:11:20,000 Speaker 1: of it in terms of the diffusion model. In this 1528 01:11:20,120 --> 01:11:24,760 Speaker 1: regard is not that old fashioned, the early adopter holdout model. 1529 01:11:24,840 --> 01:11:28,240 Speaker 1: It's it's waves of conformity via the thresholds cafformity, where 1530 01:11:28,240 --> 01:11:31,240 Speaker 1: you want to build up by saying this group influences 1531 01:11:31,280 --> 01:11:33,240 Speaker 1: this group together, they become a new unit, and so 1532 01:11:33,280 --> 01:11:37,160 Speaker 1: on and so on. Quite quite intriguing. So let's talk 1533 01:11:37,160 --> 01:11:41,640 Speaker 1: a little bit about this evolutionary baggage that we have. 1534 01:11:41,760 --> 01:11:46,759 Speaker 1: It seems that so much of our decision making UH 1535 01:11:47,000 --> 01:11:52,680 Speaker 1: is affected by mechanisms and processes which worked great on 1536 01:11:52,720 --> 01:11:56,679 Speaker 1: the savannah, but in a modern world don't really seem 1537 01:11:56,720 --> 01:11:59,320 Speaker 1: to help us and sometimes hurt us. Yeah, yeah, the 1538 01:12:00,400 --> 01:12:01,760 Speaker 1: I mean, that's been a big part of all of 1539 01:12:01,800 --> 01:12:04,080 Speaker 1: my work of the all these things are adaptive, as 1540 01:12:04,160 --> 01:12:06,760 Speaker 1: that's the phrase you want to use, like, in all 1541 01:12:06,800 --> 01:12:09,360 Speaker 1: things being equal, this is probably the best thing to do. 1542 01:12:10,200 --> 01:12:12,799 Speaker 1: But we get in certain situations where that are unique 1543 01:12:12,840 --> 01:12:14,400 Speaker 1: to modern life, and it turns out that he can 1544 01:12:14,400 --> 01:12:17,160 Speaker 1: get us in trouble. So that's the the baggage you're 1545 01:12:17,160 --> 01:12:18,840 Speaker 1: talking about. Is one of those things where most of 1546 01:12:18,880 --> 01:12:21,160 Speaker 1: the time it serves as well, but in very specific 1547 01:12:21,240 --> 01:12:24,880 Speaker 1: situations it goes the other way. Huh. Really intriguing there. 1548 01:12:25,040 --> 01:12:31,599 Speaker 1: There's there is some specific evolutionary or adaptive issues that 1549 01:12:31,840 --> 01:12:37,160 Speaker 1: come up. Why do humans argue? And why is that 1550 01:12:37,360 --> 01:12:41,320 Speaker 1: really a social dynamic that we all do when we 1551 01:12:41,360 --> 01:12:43,800 Speaker 1: all evolved to do? I? You know, this is one 1552 01:12:43,800 --> 01:12:46,519 Speaker 1: of my favorite things that that change the way I 1553 01:12:46,560 --> 01:12:50,040 Speaker 1: see the world. In researching the book The Um, a 1554 01:12:50,080 --> 01:12:51,960 Speaker 1: lot of this also goes back to the interactions model. 1555 01:12:52,000 --> 01:12:55,680 Speaker 1: With that Mercy and Sperber helped put together, UM, why 1556 01:12:55,680 --> 01:13:00,280 Speaker 1: would we argue? Well, the human beings have this nice, uh, 1557 01:13:00,760 --> 01:13:05,320 Speaker 1: complex and dense communication system that eventually became language, and 1558 01:13:05,600 --> 01:13:08,519 Speaker 1: we depend very much on the signals from other units 1559 01:13:08,520 --> 01:13:11,120 Speaker 1: in our social network to help us understand what's going on, 1560 01:13:11,200 --> 01:13:15,560 Speaker 1: to make plans, to settle on goals, shared goals, to 1561 01:13:15,920 --> 01:13:17,800 Speaker 1: decide to just do stuff, and so we do a 1562 01:13:17,800 --> 01:13:22,280 Speaker 1: lot of deliberating and arguing that space. The problem is, uh, 1563 01:13:22,680 --> 01:13:25,759 Speaker 1: imagine it like, UM, there are three people, three proto 1564 01:13:25,840 --> 01:13:27,840 Speaker 1: humans are on a hill and they're all looking in 1565 01:13:27,880 --> 01:13:31,720 Speaker 1: different directions, and the none of us can see what 1566 01:13:31,840 --> 01:13:35,439 Speaker 1: the other two can see, so you would benefit from 1567 01:13:35,479 --> 01:13:37,920 Speaker 1: some sort of worldview that is the combination of all 1568 01:13:37,920 --> 01:13:42,559 Speaker 1: three perspectives. So if I do trust these people, I 1569 01:13:42,600 --> 01:13:45,680 Speaker 1: know them pretty well, and we're talking about going to 1570 01:13:45,720 --> 01:13:47,960 Speaker 1: a certain place in the in the forest together or something. 1571 01:13:48,800 --> 01:13:51,519 Speaker 1: One persons for it, one persons against it, I'll know 1572 01:13:51,560 --> 01:13:54,040 Speaker 1: that the person who's for it is young. It's the 1573 01:13:54,080 --> 01:13:56,160 Speaker 1: first time out. They don't know much about the world. 1574 01:13:56,200 --> 01:13:58,400 Speaker 1: They're eager to show what they can do. That's that's 1575 01:13:58,439 --> 01:14:00,760 Speaker 1: that's why they like that. The other news hesitant. They 1576 01:14:00,760 --> 01:14:02,800 Speaker 1: were in a bear attack two years ago, and they're 1577 01:14:03,200 --> 01:14:04,880 Speaker 1: I don't know if they really are there, maybe a 1578 01:14:04,920 --> 01:14:07,759 Speaker 1: little over scared. This is also I have a pretty 1579 01:14:07,760 --> 01:14:10,360 Speaker 1: good idea of what how to modulate my trust about 1580 01:14:10,400 --> 01:14:14,080 Speaker 1: when it comes into the deliberation process. The more people 1581 01:14:14,120 --> 01:14:16,400 Speaker 1: involved in that process, the more complex against the more 1582 01:14:16,400 --> 01:14:19,120 Speaker 1: I have to worry about. People could be misleading me. 1583 01:14:19,680 --> 01:14:22,160 Speaker 1: They could be wrong just about about no fault of 1584 01:14:22,240 --> 01:14:25,000 Speaker 1: their own, or they could be purposely misleading me because 1585 01:14:25,000 --> 01:14:28,040 Speaker 1: they want to get an advantage over me. So um 1586 01:14:28,120 --> 01:14:30,560 Speaker 1: they use the phrase we have a built in epistemic 1587 01:14:30,640 --> 01:14:34,519 Speaker 1: vigilance for when people might be misleading us. The and 1588 01:14:34,560 --> 01:14:36,680 Speaker 1: that serves as well too. The only problem is that 1589 01:14:36,680 --> 01:14:39,640 Speaker 1: can lead to something they call a trust bottleneck. And 1590 01:14:39,680 --> 01:14:42,840 Speaker 1: a trust bottleneck is when someone does actually in our 1591 01:14:42,840 --> 01:14:45,280 Speaker 1: group come up with a very innovative idea. Maybe it's 1592 01:14:45,320 --> 01:14:48,160 Speaker 1: a some sort of invention. They've created some sort of 1593 01:14:48,160 --> 01:14:50,320 Speaker 1: new way of doing something. They have an idea about 1594 01:14:50,320 --> 01:14:52,599 Speaker 1: going to a new territory where they're there's good things 1595 01:14:52,640 --> 01:14:54,760 Speaker 1: for us to go do there. But it's there's a 1596 01:14:54,840 --> 01:14:57,160 Speaker 1: risk and reward in it and this, but this person 1597 01:14:57,240 --> 01:14:59,880 Speaker 1: really is right. If we get into an argumentation prod 1598 01:15:00,200 --> 01:15:03,240 Speaker 1: yus that's too epistemically vigilant, then we will end up 1599 01:15:03,280 --> 01:15:05,360 Speaker 1: not doing the thing that could benefit the group, And 1600 01:15:05,400 --> 01:15:07,439 Speaker 1: so we have this trust bottleneck that could prevent the 1601 01:15:07,520 --> 01:15:12,519 Speaker 1: calls groups to stagnate. So we developed another evolutionary mechanism 1602 01:15:12,600 --> 01:15:15,480 Speaker 1: to get past trust bottlenecks, and that is arguing itself. 1603 01:15:15,920 --> 01:15:18,240 Speaker 1: The argumentation process is how we get through the trust 1604 01:15:18,240 --> 01:15:21,120 Speaker 1: bottleneck created by epistemic vigilance and go ahead. Ye, So 1605 01:15:21,160 --> 01:15:23,400 Speaker 1: I was gonna ask, why are we so good at 1606 01:15:23,400 --> 01:15:28,320 Speaker 1: picking other people's arguments apart and so terrible at objectively 1607 01:15:28,360 --> 01:15:31,280 Speaker 1: evaluating all loves so much? There's a uh this it 1608 01:15:31,320 --> 01:15:33,880 Speaker 1: reminds me something the psychology called the Solomon paradox. I 1609 01:15:33,920 --> 01:15:36,960 Speaker 1: think it's in business too, with the we're really good 1610 01:15:37,000 --> 01:15:38,800 Speaker 1: at giving out advice, it's very hard for us to 1611 01:15:38,800 --> 01:15:41,200 Speaker 1: actually employ in our own lives. Like you, when somebody 1612 01:15:41,280 --> 01:15:43,160 Speaker 1: has a problem, they tell you and you're like, here's 1613 01:15:43,200 --> 01:15:44,280 Speaker 1: what you ought to do, But then when you have 1614 01:15:44,320 --> 01:15:46,760 Speaker 1: that exact same problem, you don't do that thing. Um. 1615 01:15:47,080 --> 01:15:49,040 Speaker 1: There's some really cool research recently where they have people 1616 01:15:49,040 --> 01:15:51,719 Speaker 1: put on VR headsets and they walk into a room 1617 01:15:51,840 --> 01:15:55,400 Speaker 1: in virtuality and see uh Freud sitting there and uh 1618 01:15:55,680 --> 01:15:57,360 Speaker 1: Freud says, tell me about your problems, and they sit 1619 01:15:57,360 --> 01:15:59,760 Speaker 1: down and they explained the problem they're they're having, and 1620 01:15:59,800 --> 01:16:02,280 Speaker 1: then they run the second time, but the second time, 1621 01:16:02,320 --> 01:16:06,280 Speaker 1: you are Freud and uh you see yourself walk in. 1622 01:16:06,320 --> 01:16:08,200 Speaker 1: It's all been recorded. They even have an avatar with 1623 01:16:08,240 --> 01:16:11,240 Speaker 1: your face and you hear the audio of yourself telling 1624 01:16:11,280 --> 01:16:14,080 Speaker 1: your telling you as Freud what your problems are. And 1625 01:16:14,080 --> 01:16:16,800 Speaker 1: they have around a sixty eight percent success rate of 1626 01:16:16,840 --> 01:16:19,160 Speaker 1: the person having a breakthrough, Oh I see what I 1627 01:16:19,160 --> 01:16:20,920 Speaker 1: ought to do now that they couldn't do on their own. 1628 01:16:20,920 --> 01:16:22,920 Speaker 1: They need to get into this dynamic that we're talking 1629 01:16:22,920 --> 01:16:25,719 Speaker 1: about meaning looking at it from with through a different 1630 01:16:25,720 --> 01:16:27,040 Speaker 1: path they need to be they had to get that 1631 01:16:27,080 --> 01:16:31,400 Speaker 1: evaluation phase. So um, we have two cognitive mechanisms to 1632 01:16:31,439 --> 01:16:34,519 Speaker 1: really simplify this. One for the production of arguments, for 1633 01:16:34,920 --> 01:16:39,680 Speaker 1: the production of justifications and rationalizations, reasons why we are 1634 01:16:39,720 --> 01:16:42,720 Speaker 1: doing something. It's important that in psychology reason is not 1635 01:16:42,760 --> 01:16:45,519 Speaker 1: the big our reason of philosophy with propositional logic and 1636 01:16:45,520 --> 01:16:47,960 Speaker 1: all that. It's just coming up for with reasons for 1637 01:16:48,000 --> 01:16:51,920 Speaker 1: what you think totally rationalization, rationalization and justification and in 1638 01:16:51,960 --> 01:16:56,880 Speaker 1: some cases just explanation and why why do we do this? Well, 1639 01:16:56,920 --> 01:17:00,200 Speaker 1: the the interaccess model is because we're always imagined the 1640 01:17:00,240 --> 01:17:02,639 Speaker 1: audience that's going to be receiving the information. That's why 1641 01:17:02,680 --> 01:17:05,240 Speaker 1: you in your shower you're thinking of how you're gonna 1642 01:17:05,560 --> 01:17:07,280 Speaker 1: really stick it to that person on Reddit that you've 1643 01:17:07,320 --> 01:17:09,880 Speaker 1: been arguing with all day? Right? Why? Because that's the 1644 01:17:10,479 --> 01:17:12,559 Speaker 1: that's how that's how we produce reasons. But we also 1645 01:17:12,560 --> 01:17:14,160 Speaker 1: do it alone. Like if I'm imagining I want to 1646 01:17:14,160 --> 01:17:15,720 Speaker 1: buy something on Amazon or I want to take a 1647 01:17:15,720 --> 01:17:19,400 Speaker 1: trip somewhere, You'll start rationalizing and justifying it to yourself. 1648 01:17:19,680 --> 01:17:20,880 Speaker 1: And when you when you want a piece of cake, 1649 01:17:20,920 --> 01:17:23,200 Speaker 1: you will come up with with a justification. We're getting 1650 01:17:23,200 --> 01:17:24,840 Speaker 1: the cake right, like I didn't need anything to day, 1651 01:17:24,920 --> 01:17:27,160 Speaker 1: or I did or exercise yesterday, or whatever it is 1652 01:17:27,160 --> 01:17:28,720 Speaker 1: you need to do. You want to do it, but 1653 01:17:28,760 --> 01:17:31,960 Speaker 1: you need a justification for it. There's a humongous body 1654 01:17:31,960 --> 01:17:33,720 Speaker 1: of evidence that we don't even make the decisions that 1655 01:17:33,720 --> 01:17:36,520 Speaker 1: are best. We only make the decision that's easiest to justify. 1656 01:17:36,640 --> 01:17:40,080 Speaker 1: And um, huge mercy and spurn all these great experiments 1657 01:17:40,080 --> 01:17:41,920 Speaker 1: where they have people um and one of them, they 1658 01:17:41,960 --> 01:17:45,680 Speaker 1: had people they solve these word problems, and then they 1659 01:17:45,680 --> 01:17:48,880 Speaker 1: would mix the answers up and have people evaluate other 1660 01:17:48,920 --> 01:17:50,800 Speaker 1: people who have been looking at the word problem. But 1661 01:17:50,840 --> 01:17:52,799 Speaker 1: of course the trick is when one of the answers 1662 01:17:52,840 --> 01:17:55,080 Speaker 1: is their own, and they would find that when people 1663 01:17:55,160 --> 01:17:59,400 Speaker 1: were thinking that they were evaluating other people's arguments, they'd 1664 01:17:59,439 --> 01:18:01,800 Speaker 1: find the holes in their own like thinking and their 1665 01:18:01,800 --> 01:18:03,800 Speaker 1: own reasoning, But if they thought they were looking at 1666 01:18:03,840 --> 01:18:06,439 Speaker 1: their own arguments, they'd usually miss it. So it's an 1667 01:18:06,479 --> 01:18:09,639 Speaker 1: effective trick. Maybe trick is the wrong word, but it's 1668 01:18:09,640 --> 01:18:14,840 Speaker 1: an effective technique to get people to objectively self analyzes, 1669 01:18:14,920 --> 01:18:18,200 Speaker 1: to make them believe they're criticizing someone else's argus right, 1670 01:18:18,240 --> 01:18:21,160 Speaker 1: So the there and what it seems to be the 1671 01:18:21,280 --> 01:18:24,840 Speaker 1: function here. Why this is so adaptive is that under 1672 01:18:24,920 --> 01:18:26,599 Speaker 1: a lot of pressure or doesn't even it doesn't even 1673 01:18:26,600 --> 01:18:28,479 Speaker 1: need to be a group selection process. It's just simply 1674 01:18:28,640 --> 01:18:32,200 Speaker 1: how the math works out. If you have a lot 1675 01:18:32,200 --> 01:18:34,160 Speaker 1: of different people with a lot of different experiences, and 1676 01:18:34,200 --> 01:18:35,880 Speaker 1: they have a lot of different value sets, and they 1677 01:18:35,920 --> 01:18:37,840 Speaker 1: have a lot of different skill sets, and you're facing 1678 01:18:37,840 --> 01:18:39,360 Speaker 1: a problem, you're trying to come up with a solution 1679 01:18:39,400 --> 01:18:40,439 Speaker 1: to it, or you have a goal you want to 1680 01:18:40,439 --> 01:18:43,120 Speaker 1: reach it, you will be much more effective as a 1681 01:18:43,160 --> 01:18:48,080 Speaker 1: group if everybody presents their biased individual perspective and they 1682 01:18:48,240 --> 01:18:50,280 Speaker 1: don't put a lot of cognitive effort into the production 1683 01:18:50,320 --> 01:18:54,080 Speaker 1: of it, make it easy, cheap, and bias. Then you 1684 01:18:54,160 --> 01:18:57,320 Speaker 1: offload the cognitive labor to that evaluation process that twelve 1685 01:18:57,360 --> 01:19:00,479 Speaker 1: angry men experience where everyone looks at each other arguments 1686 01:19:00,520 --> 01:19:03,120 Speaker 1: and goes, okay, this that, this, that, this that, and 1687 01:19:03,240 --> 01:19:05,760 Speaker 1: over time that's developed these two mechanisms we have this. Uh. 1688 01:19:05,800 --> 01:19:08,200 Speaker 1: That's why as individuals, and that's not one of the 1689 01:19:08,200 --> 01:19:11,240 Speaker 1: biggest problems on the Internet is that we we do 1690 01:19:11,320 --> 01:19:13,720 Speaker 1: a lot of our deliberating these days and context that 1691 01:19:14,120 --> 01:19:17,080 Speaker 1: incentivize the production of arguments, but don't really give us 1692 01:19:17,120 --> 01:19:20,120 Speaker 1: much opportunity to go through that evaluation together. There's a 1693 01:19:20,200 --> 01:19:22,960 Speaker 1: phrase you had in the book that that caught my eye. 1694 01:19:23,439 --> 01:19:27,080 Speaker 1: Debate leads those who are wrong to change their minds, 1695 01:19:27,160 --> 01:19:29,120 Speaker 1: and as a group, you want to get to the 1696 01:19:29,160 --> 01:19:33,320 Speaker 1: best decision, the best outcome. On the Internet, it's not 1697 01:19:33,439 --> 01:19:38,200 Speaker 1: as much a real collaborative discussion argument debate as it 1698 01:19:38,280 --> 01:19:40,559 Speaker 1: is just people yelling past each other. Yeah, but it 1699 01:19:40,600 --> 01:19:43,280 Speaker 1: feels like, you know, it looks like a real debate, 1700 01:19:43,320 --> 01:19:45,080 Speaker 1: but it's not. Yeah, I feel like I'm doing that, 1701 01:19:45,120 --> 01:19:47,320 Speaker 1: you know, I feel like I'm participating in some sort 1702 01:19:47,360 --> 01:19:50,680 Speaker 1: of marketplace of ideas. It seems like I'm doing that. 1703 01:19:51,120 --> 01:19:53,560 Speaker 1: But the way the platforms are currently set up, for 1704 01:19:53,600 --> 01:19:56,920 Speaker 1: the most part, it's just people yelling people like writing 1705 01:19:56,920 --> 01:19:58,840 Speaker 1: on a piece of paper what they think, feeling believe in, 1706 01:19:58,920 --> 01:20:01,280 Speaker 1: dumping it onto a big pie, and then other people 1707 01:20:01,360 --> 01:20:04,000 Speaker 1: running through the pile and guard like there's it's not 1708 01:20:04,080 --> 01:20:06,880 Speaker 1: like a twelve angry man. We're not actually sitting in 1709 01:20:06,880 --> 01:20:08,760 Speaker 1: a circle and and or you know, it's not like 1710 01:20:08,760 --> 01:20:11,360 Speaker 1: a dinner party where we're I'm sure you've had dinner 1711 01:20:11,400 --> 01:20:13,960 Speaker 1: parties or had guests over who have really wildly different 1712 01:20:14,000 --> 01:20:16,240 Speaker 1: political views in you and you didn't like get into 1713 01:20:16,280 --> 01:20:18,920 Speaker 1: twitter mind with them. You talked it out in some way. 1714 01:20:18,920 --> 01:20:21,280 Speaker 1: That is that that aspect is something we've yet to 1715 01:20:21,280 --> 01:20:23,800 Speaker 1: tweak the system to allow us in certain contexts. There 1716 01:20:23,920 --> 01:20:27,080 Speaker 1: was a very amusing cartoon. I don't remember who who's 1717 01:20:27,120 --> 01:20:31,599 Speaker 1: it was, but the line was, what did you do 1718 01:20:31,680 --> 01:20:34,679 Speaker 1: when the United States was overthrown in the early twenty 1719 01:20:34,680 --> 01:20:38,680 Speaker 1: one century? Oh? I tweeted my disapproval for and it 1720 01:20:38,880 --> 01:20:43,439 Speaker 1: just you know what, what is a hundred forty characters? 1721 01:20:43,560 --> 01:20:48,160 Speaker 1: It's just it scrolls by instantly. It's not really that 1722 01:20:48,320 --> 01:20:50,760 Speaker 1: sort of engaged discussion. I don't mean to be like, 1723 01:20:50,840 --> 01:20:53,280 Speaker 1: you know, I don't mean to to poople on social media. 1724 01:20:53,360 --> 01:20:54,720 Speaker 1: It's it's great for what it is. It's just that 1725 01:20:54,960 --> 01:20:56,640 Speaker 1: it is. But it also is what it is like, 1726 01:20:57,040 --> 01:21:00,000 Speaker 1: it's been a It's a great tool for giving voice 1727 01:21:00,040 --> 01:21:01,880 Speaker 1: to people who haven't been part of the conversation in 1728 01:21:01,920 --> 01:21:04,479 Speaker 1: a long time. It's a great way to gauge what 1729 01:21:04,520 --> 01:21:06,559 Speaker 1: are people thinking and feeling. But if we want to 1730 01:21:06,560 --> 01:21:10,240 Speaker 1: do the deliberation thing, the argumentation thing that moves things around, 1731 01:21:10,320 --> 01:21:13,120 Speaker 1: it's not so great at that yet and the question 1732 01:21:13,200 --> 01:21:16,800 Speaker 1: is will will it ever be? Um? So, so you 1733 01:21:16,840 --> 01:21:18,960 Speaker 1: mentioned twelve angry men. This is a this is a 1734 01:21:19,040 --> 01:21:23,839 Speaker 1: great line in your book. All culture is twelve angry 1735 01:21:23,840 --> 01:21:27,240 Speaker 1: men at scale. Yeah, go into some detail about you know, 1736 01:21:27,280 --> 01:21:29,120 Speaker 1: as plays right off what we were just discussing, like 1737 01:21:29,160 --> 01:21:32,880 Speaker 1: the the everything we've ever achieved as species of note 1738 01:21:32,920 --> 01:21:35,400 Speaker 1: as came out of a lot of people disagreeing and 1739 01:21:35,439 --> 01:21:39,040 Speaker 1: then like sorting it out and there are um we've 1740 01:21:39,040 --> 01:21:41,960 Speaker 1: been great at creating some some institutions that do this 1741 01:21:42,080 --> 01:21:44,760 Speaker 1: on purpose, like science when it's done well is a 1742 01:21:44,800 --> 01:21:46,880 Speaker 1: group of people debating and argument with the other and 1743 01:21:46,880 --> 01:21:48,840 Speaker 1: trying to tear each other's ideas. But there's a good 1744 01:21:48,880 --> 01:21:52,960 Speaker 1: faith in signs and elsewhere that you may not get 1745 01:21:53,040 --> 01:21:55,760 Speaker 1: on on Reddit or Twitter. It's so crucial to create 1746 01:21:55,760 --> 01:21:57,519 Speaker 1: creating the rules of the game, and we all play 1747 01:21:57,600 --> 01:22:00,960 Speaker 1: by it. And you I've that you if I meet 1748 01:22:01,000 --> 01:22:02,879 Speaker 1: you on the street or I meet you on the internet, 1749 01:22:03,040 --> 01:22:04,800 Speaker 1: like we may not be in a good faith environment, 1750 01:22:04,800 --> 01:22:07,200 Speaker 1: we're going to play by those rules that that That's 1751 01:22:07,200 --> 01:22:09,280 Speaker 1: why it was so nice to create these systems of 1752 01:22:09,360 --> 01:22:14,800 Speaker 1: argumentation like law and UH medicine and academia, the and 1753 01:22:14,880 --> 01:22:17,200 Speaker 1: most of the people that we I'm very against the 1754 01:22:17,200 --> 01:22:19,679 Speaker 1: great Man theory of things that where you imagine single 1755 01:22:19,720 --> 01:22:22,040 Speaker 1: inventors coming up with amazing insights like no one ever 1756 01:22:22,080 --> 01:22:24,439 Speaker 1: does anything in isolation like that. The and a lot 1757 01:22:24,520 --> 01:22:26,479 Speaker 1: of the even the people we've lauded throughout history, they 1758 01:22:26,479 --> 01:22:30,360 Speaker 1: had either someone that they bounced ideas with across and against, 1759 01:22:31,000 --> 01:22:36,120 Speaker 1: or they collaborated with, or they were absolutely assaulted over 1760 01:22:36,120 --> 01:22:37,640 Speaker 1: and over again by people who disagreed with them, and 1761 01:22:37,640 --> 01:22:39,479 Speaker 1: they had to refine their arguments in the presence of 1762 01:22:39,520 --> 01:22:42,559 Speaker 1: all of that. And that's why I talk about culture 1763 01:22:42,560 --> 01:22:46,439 Speaker 1: being twelve agrement scale like once any like society five 1764 01:22:46,479 --> 01:22:48,800 Speaker 1: figures out a way to institutionalize those things. That's when 1765 01:22:48,840 --> 01:22:51,799 Speaker 1: you get those massive leaps, and both in the social 1766 01:22:51,800 --> 01:22:54,519 Speaker 1: domain and the political domain and the scientific and technological domains. 1767 01:22:55,160 --> 01:22:58,400 Speaker 1: So so, given all of these things we've been talking about, 1768 01:22:58,760 --> 01:23:03,280 Speaker 1: from tribalism to identity, how do we get people to 1769 01:23:03,520 --> 01:23:06,240 Speaker 1: actually change their mind? What are the three key things 1770 01:23:06,800 --> 01:23:10,840 Speaker 1: people need to have happened to them in order to 1771 01:23:10,880 --> 01:23:13,920 Speaker 1: get a major shift in their position. We know it 1772 01:23:13,960 --> 01:23:16,040 Speaker 1: would be difficult, I think, to pick just three things, 1773 01:23:16,040 --> 01:23:17,240 Speaker 1: but I can think of a couple of things that 1774 01:23:17,320 --> 01:23:19,599 Speaker 1: we fit in here. I think one thing I want 1775 01:23:19,640 --> 01:23:23,519 Speaker 1: people to understand is all persuasion and self persuasion, uh 1776 01:23:23,840 --> 01:23:25,920 Speaker 1: most mostly when it comes to change people's minds, what 1777 01:23:26,040 --> 01:23:27,400 Speaker 1: you're trying to do is alert them the fact that 1778 01:23:27,439 --> 01:23:29,800 Speaker 1: they could change their mind. So a little bit of 1779 01:23:29,840 --> 01:23:34,439 Speaker 1: socratic process is you you're guiding them to something and 1780 01:23:34,479 --> 01:23:36,960 Speaker 1: if they're not willing, then they're never going to change them. 1781 01:23:37,000 --> 01:23:38,840 Speaker 1: And it's you know, we all we talk a lot 1782 01:23:38,880 --> 01:23:41,240 Speaker 1: about how facts don't seem to work so well. Uh, 1783 01:23:41,560 --> 01:23:44,519 Speaker 1: that's only because the usually when you start arguing somebody 1784 01:23:44,520 --> 01:23:46,439 Speaker 1: over an issue you want to present them, you'll say like, hey, 1785 01:23:46,680 --> 01:23:48,880 Speaker 1: read this book, Hey watch this YouTube video, Hey go 1786 01:23:48,920 --> 01:23:51,520 Speaker 1: to this website, and you're like, that should do it. 1787 01:23:51,560 --> 01:23:53,280 Speaker 1: But how's that? Has that ever happened to you? Like, 1788 01:23:53,400 --> 01:23:55,519 Speaker 1: never has anyone sent me a YouTube video? And I've 1789 01:23:55,520 --> 01:23:58,920 Speaker 1: been like, oh, okay, I never know it though, change 1790 01:23:59,080 --> 01:24:01,320 Speaker 1: my mind, said nobody. And that's the idea of that 1791 01:24:01,439 --> 01:24:04,480 Speaker 1: is you there's a reasoning. There's a chain of processing 1792 01:24:04,560 --> 01:24:07,400 Speaker 1: involved in reasoning where you are probably unaware that you 1793 01:24:07,439 --> 01:24:09,280 Speaker 1: went through all this and it landed on a particular 1794 01:24:09,320 --> 01:24:12,120 Speaker 1: conclusion because it made sense to you had matched your 1795 01:24:12,200 --> 01:24:14,160 Speaker 1: values and your attitudes and your beliefs on the matter, 1796 01:24:14,800 --> 01:24:17,400 Speaker 1: and you have to afford the other person the opportunity 1797 01:24:17,439 --> 01:24:19,439 Speaker 1: to go through that same process. You can't meet them 1798 01:24:19,439 --> 01:24:21,200 Speaker 1: at the level of the conclusion, because what ends up 1799 01:24:21,200 --> 01:24:24,200 Speaker 1: happening you just start tossing these these facts that support 1800 01:24:24,240 --> 01:24:27,680 Speaker 1: your position at each other instead of having a conversation 1801 01:24:27,680 --> 01:24:29,720 Speaker 1: in which we're looking at the issue together. Right. So 1802 01:24:29,760 --> 01:24:31,759 Speaker 1: that's one thing, is like you can't copy and paste 1803 01:24:31,760 --> 01:24:34,160 Speaker 1: your reasoning into another person. And when you're trying to 1804 01:24:34,240 --> 01:24:36,280 Speaker 1: argue just based off facts and links and stuff, that's 1805 01:24:36,280 --> 01:24:39,720 Speaker 1: really what you're suggesting they ought to do. So all 1806 01:24:39,760 --> 01:24:42,000 Speaker 1: persuasion self persuasion. I have to open up a space 1807 01:24:42,000 --> 01:24:44,120 Speaker 1: for you to explore your own reasoning, and I have 1808 01:24:44,160 --> 01:24:45,759 Speaker 1: to open up a space for you to to entertain 1809 01:24:45,760 --> 01:24:48,200 Speaker 1: different perspectives and to think about where your stuff comes from. 1810 01:24:48,320 --> 01:24:50,559 Speaker 1: Was what we did earlier in the conversation. Secondly, you 1811 01:24:50,560 --> 01:24:54,840 Speaker 1: have to recognize that we're social creatures, so people are 1812 01:24:54,880 --> 01:24:58,160 Speaker 1: influenced by the signaling and the expectations of the people 1813 01:24:58,200 --> 01:25:01,120 Speaker 1: around them. If you say anything to that person that 1814 01:25:01,120 --> 01:25:03,120 Speaker 1: could be interpreted as you ought to be ashamed for 1815 01:25:03,160 --> 01:25:05,759 Speaker 1: what you think, feeling, believe, conversations over. At that point, 1816 01:25:06,280 --> 01:25:09,440 Speaker 1: no one was willing to be ostracized. The great sociologist 1817 01:25:09,439 --> 01:25:11,200 Speaker 1: Brooke Harrington told me that there was an Eagles mc 1818 01:25:11,320 --> 01:25:14,720 Speaker 1: Square of social science. It would be social death. The 1819 01:25:14,760 --> 01:25:16,320 Speaker 1: fear of social death is greater than the fear of 1820 01:25:16,320 --> 01:25:18,719 Speaker 1: physical death. Literally a quote I have written down because 1821 01:25:18,760 --> 01:25:22,240 Speaker 1: I thought it was so so, and she ran me 1822 01:25:22,240 --> 01:25:23,880 Speaker 1: through a hundred examples where this is the true, from 1823 01:25:23,880 --> 01:25:27,960 Speaker 1: war to excommunication, to go down the list. It is social. 1824 01:25:28,120 --> 01:25:30,960 Speaker 1: Social death is actual death in most of history. And 1825 01:25:30,960 --> 01:25:32,759 Speaker 1: I don't care who you are, what kind of profession 1826 01:25:32,800 --> 01:25:35,160 Speaker 1: you're in. You're worried about other people around you, and 1827 01:25:35,200 --> 01:25:37,519 Speaker 1: that profession think about you, and you're modulating your behavior 1828 01:25:37,560 --> 01:25:39,960 Speaker 1: to go with and your modulating your beliefs, attitudes and values. 1829 01:25:40,560 --> 01:25:43,760 Speaker 1: And when it comes down to it, if the situation 1830 01:25:43,960 --> 01:25:47,599 Speaker 1: requires it, you'll put your reputation on the lifeboat and 1831 01:25:47,640 --> 01:25:49,080 Speaker 1: you will let your body sink to the bottom of 1832 01:25:49,080 --> 01:25:51,080 Speaker 1: the ocean if that's the situation you're put in. And 1833 01:25:51,400 --> 01:25:56,000 Speaker 1: Dueling and all those things we do, I'll talk all 1834 01:25:56,040 --> 01:25:58,720 Speaker 1: about the book Dueling Last a long time was really peculiar, 1835 01:25:58,760 --> 01:26:00,360 Speaker 1: but it was just this system out of ann troll. 1836 01:26:01,000 --> 01:26:03,760 Speaker 1: And if I'm trying to discuss an issue with you 1837 01:26:03,800 --> 01:26:06,080 Speaker 1: and I've put you in that state of mind, you 1838 01:26:06,240 --> 01:26:08,280 Speaker 1: there's no what you're what you're gonna do is react. 1839 01:26:08,520 --> 01:26:10,760 Speaker 1: You're gonna push back against me. Then I'm going to 1840 01:26:10,800 --> 01:26:12,920 Speaker 1: get feel that feeling. I'm going to push back against you, 1841 01:26:12,960 --> 01:26:14,639 Speaker 1: and then you push back harder, I push back harder, 1842 01:26:14,800 --> 01:26:17,439 Speaker 1: and we end up in that stupid phrase of well, 1843 01:26:17,479 --> 01:26:19,599 Speaker 1: let's agree to disagree. Well, we already agree to disagree. 1844 01:26:19,640 --> 01:26:21,719 Speaker 1: That's how we sat down here, right. We're really saying 1845 01:26:21,760 --> 01:26:23,600 Speaker 1: is stopped talking to me, And that's what that is, 1846 01:26:23,680 --> 01:26:26,840 Speaker 1: is a nice we're agreeing to stop arguing with the data. 1847 01:26:27,000 --> 01:26:29,439 Speaker 1: We're agreeing to to never actually advance this issue and 1848 01:26:29,479 --> 01:26:32,320 Speaker 1: never talk to each other again. So never open up 1849 01:26:32,320 --> 01:26:34,960 Speaker 1: the conversation with anything that could be interpreted as you 1850 01:26:35,000 --> 01:26:37,160 Speaker 1: ought to be ashamed, even if they should be ashamed 1851 01:26:37,160 --> 01:26:39,120 Speaker 1: of what they're feeling and thinking. If you're hoping to 1852 01:26:39,160 --> 01:26:41,360 Speaker 1: persuade them, you have to not do that. And then 1853 01:26:41,720 --> 01:26:43,680 Speaker 1: the so be aware that they're a social primate. You're 1854 01:26:43,720 --> 01:26:45,680 Speaker 1: a social primate. Never try to copy and paste your 1855 01:26:45,680 --> 01:26:49,080 Speaker 1: reading and the other person and the most important part 1856 01:26:49,160 --> 01:26:52,479 Speaker 1: is that you have to get out of debate frame. 1857 01:26:53,280 --> 01:26:55,840 Speaker 1: Don't don't create a dynamic work. I want to win, 1858 01:26:55,880 --> 01:26:57,200 Speaker 1: I want you to lose. I want to show that 1859 01:26:57,240 --> 01:27:01,439 Speaker 1: I'm right and you're wrong. This is this is the 1860 01:27:01,479 --> 01:27:03,320 Speaker 1: most crucial thing. If you take nothing else away from it, 1861 01:27:03,360 --> 01:27:06,599 Speaker 1: take this, think of it. We're like hum, I find 1862 01:27:06,640 --> 01:27:09,040 Speaker 1: you a reasonable, rational, interesting human being, and it's ad 1863 01:27:09,160 --> 01:27:11,840 Speaker 1: that I disagree with you on this. I wonder why 1864 01:27:11,920 --> 01:27:15,519 Speaker 1: I disagree with you? Our disagreement is a mystery. What 1865 01:27:15,560 --> 01:27:17,639 Speaker 1: if we teamed up to solve a mystery together why 1866 01:27:17,680 --> 01:27:20,559 Speaker 1: we disagree? And now we're taking all these things that 1867 01:27:20,640 --> 01:27:23,040 Speaker 1: are adaptive and usually in a way that could actually 1868 01:27:23,040 --> 01:27:25,840 Speaker 1: get us further along and settle. And what might actually 1869 01:27:25,840 --> 01:27:28,439 Speaker 1: happen is we both realized we're both wrong. What we 1870 01:27:28,680 --> 01:27:30,960 Speaker 1: we get to vin diagram ourselves. So you go from 1871 01:27:31,000 --> 01:27:33,519 Speaker 1: face off to shoulder shoulder and this if There are 1872 01:27:33,520 --> 01:27:34,960 Speaker 1: many different ways to go about it, but once you 1873 01:27:35,000 --> 01:27:38,200 Speaker 1: get in that dynamic, you're much more likely to persuade 1874 01:27:38,280 --> 01:27:40,920 Speaker 1: each other of something and move the attitude the room 1875 01:27:41,000 --> 01:27:44,800 Speaker 1: quite fascinating. So let's jump to our speed round. I'm 1876 01:27:44,800 --> 01:27:47,800 Speaker 1: going to ask all these questions thirty seconds or less. 1877 01:27:47,920 --> 01:27:50,200 Speaker 1: I'm gonna do my best. These are These are what 1878 01:27:50,240 --> 01:27:53,840 Speaker 1: we ask all of our guests, starting with what are 1879 01:27:53,880 --> 01:27:57,040 Speaker 1: you streaming or listening? To? Tell us what what Netflix, 1880 01:27:57,080 --> 01:28:00,720 Speaker 1: Amazon Prime podcasts kept you entertained the past couple of years? 1881 01:28:00,800 --> 01:28:03,080 Speaker 1: Cool very quickly. My favorite podcast has always been are 1882 01:28:03,120 --> 01:28:05,920 Speaker 1: still is Decoder Ring? I recommended to everybody. I love it. 1883 01:28:05,920 --> 01:28:08,320 Speaker 1: Will A Paskin is amazing best show US stream and 1884 01:28:08,360 --> 01:28:11,200 Speaker 1: recently it's definitely Severance. Everybody should have seen Severance by now. 1885 01:28:11,560 --> 01:28:13,719 Speaker 1: Also the rehearsal. You can see the kind of stuff 1886 01:28:13,720 --> 01:28:16,920 Speaker 1: that I like watch. Someone just recommended the rehearsal and 1887 01:28:16,960 --> 01:28:20,479 Speaker 1: said it reminded them of Severance and how out there? 1888 01:28:20,600 --> 01:28:23,160 Speaker 1: Ye watch that? And then like, I'm among those people 1889 01:28:23,160 --> 01:28:25,160 Speaker 1: that please video games the highest form of art. You 1890 01:28:25,680 --> 01:28:29,599 Speaker 1: definitely play Death Stranding And I replayed BioShock recently because 1891 01:28:29,600 --> 01:28:31,559 Speaker 1: I interviewed Douglas rush Kof and we were talking about 1892 01:28:31,560 --> 01:28:34,160 Speaker 1: BioShock and it still holds up. Who are some of 1893 01:28:34,200 --> 01:28:37,599 Speaker 1: your mentors who helped you develop your your view of 1894 01:28:38,120 --> 01:28:43,200 Speaker 1: psychology and cognitive issues? And you know, persuasion Gene Edwards 1895 01:28:43,240 --> 01:28:45,439 Speaker 1: my first, like the first psychology professor that took me 1896 01:28:45,439 --> 01:28:48,080 Speaker 1: inside aside and said let's be friends and really talking 1897 01:28:48,080 --> 01:28:49,920 Speaker 1: about it. I owe a lot to her, you know 1898 01:28:50,040 --> 01:28:52,760 Speaker 1: people who I've met in real life. Whoever. James Burke 1899 01:28:52,840 --> 01:28:55,040 Speaker 1: is the most influential person in my life. I loved 1900 01:28:55,120 --> 01:28:57,920 Speaker 1: his show years ago. I think it was BBC How 1901 01:28:58,000 --> 01:29:00,360 Speaker 1: the Universe Change, How the Universe change? And can actions? 1902 01:29:00,360 --> 01:29:02,840 Speaker 1: And I can Connections only for people listening to this. 1903 01:29:03,200 --> 01:29:06,559 Speaker 1: I worked with Johnson and UH, James Burke all over 1904 01:29:06,720 --> 01:29:09,479 Speaker 1: all throughout COVID to develop a new Connection series really 1905 01:29:09,680 --> 01:29:11,760 Speaker 1: and I can't say anything else about it, but it 1906 01:29:11,760 --> 01:29:13,879 Speaker 1: will be coming out with in the next year. Very exciting. 1907 01:29:13,920 --> 01:29:16,759 Speaker 1: I love his stuff. What are some of your favorite books? 1908 01:29:16,760 --> 01:29:19,240 Speaker 1: And what are you reading right now? Let me say, 1909 01:29:19,280 --> 01:29:22,800 Speaker 1: as far as authors, I love UH, John Jeremiah Sullivan, UM, 1910 01:29:23,040 --> 01:29:27,680 Speaker 1: Charlie Laduff, Michael Perry, Larry Brown, all these there are 1911 01:29:27,720 --> 01:29:30,040 Speaker 1: either people who are in Southern Gothic literature or or 1912 01:29:30,120 --> 01:29:32,640 Speaker 1: the Southern Gothic literature version of journalism. I can't get 1913 01:29:32,760 --> 01:29:35,160 Speaker 1: enough of that stuff. Our last two questions, what sort 1914 01:29:35,160 --> 01:29:37,599 Speaker 1: of advice would you give to a recent college grad 1915 01:29:38,040 --> 01:29:41,840 Speaker 1: who was interested in a career of either journalism or 1916 01:29:41,920 --> 01:29:46,000 Speaker 1: psychology or anything related to to your field. I'll give you. 1917 01:29:46,000 --> 01:29:48,360 Speaker 1: I'll give you two solid pieces of advice that aren't 1918 01:29:48,360 --> 01:29:50,360 Speaker 1: just high minded like that sounds nice, and they can 1919 01:29:50,360 --> 01:29:52,200 Speaker 1: put it on postcard things. This is what you gotta do. 1920 01:29:52,360 --> 01:29:54,920 Speaker 1: Number one, Email the people that you admire or the 1921 01:29:54,920 --> 01:29:57,240 Speaker 1: people you'd like to interview. I have about a seventy 1922 01:29:57,240 --> 01:30:00,160 Speaker 1: percent success rate of when I was good starting out 1923 01:30:00,160 --> 01:30:01,640 Speaker 1: of people. They will at least email you back and 1924 01:30:01,640 --> 01:30:03,760 Speaker 1: say I can't talk, but you'd be surprised how many 1925 01:30:03,760 --> 01:30:05,840 Speaker 1: people are willing to talk to you. Just do that, 1926 01:30:05,960 --> 01:30:07,679 Speaker 1: and then on this on the back end, make content 1927 01:30:07,680 --> 01:30:09,240 Speaker 1: out of that and give it away for free until 1928 01:30:09,280 --> 01:30:11,479 Speaker 1: you build up an audience. We now live in an 1929 01:30:11,600 --> 01:30:13,360 Speaker 1: environment we've been living in it for about twenty years 1930 01:30:13,400 --> 01:30:15,360 Speaker 1: now where the people who are going to offer their 1931 01:30:15,360 --> 01:30:17,400 Speaker 1: hand to get you on stage, they care about whether 1932 01:30:17,439 --> 01:30:19,400 Speaker 1: or not you have an audience. Yet you can build 1933 01:30:19,400 --> 01:30:22,320 Speaker 1: that audience without anybody's permission right now, and you can 1934 01:30:22,360 --> 01:30:25,040 Speaker 1: do that by making content on TikTok YouTube, putting it 1935 01:30:25,040 --> 01:30:27,320 Speaker 1: out on a medium wherever you put your stuff. So 1936 01:30:27,400 --> 01:30:29,200 Speaker 1: do those two things back to back. Email the people 1937 01:30:29,280 --> 01:30:31,759 Speaker 1: you want, and they make content out of those emails 1938 01:30:31,800 --> 01:30:33,519 Speaker 1: and give it away for free into you have an audience, 1939 01:30:33,600 --> 01:30:37,320 Speaker 1: develop your voice. Love that idea. Final question, what do 1940 01:30:37,360 --> 01:30:41,160 Speaker 1: you know about the world of psychology, changing minds and 1941 01:30:41,280 --> 01:30:44,400 Speaker 1: persuasion today that you wish you knew twenty or so 1942 01:30:44,600 --> 01:30:48,800 Speaker 1: years ago when you were first getting started. No one's unreachable, 1943 01:30:49,120 --> 01:30:52,080 Speaker 1: No one's unpersuadable. There's no such thing. And I think 1944 01:30:52,080 --> 01:30:53,880 Speaker 1: of it more like if you try to reach the 1945 01:30:53,920 --> 01:30:57,439 Speaker 1: moon with a ladder, you'll fail, and if you assume 1946 01:30:57,479 --> 01:30:59,439 Speaker 1: from that that the moon is unreachable, then you really 1947 01:30:59,520 --> 01:31:01,800 Speaker 1: learn nothing right. And that's what I actually had thought 1948 01:31:01,840 --> 01:31:03,640 Speaker 1: for a long time. And it turns out the frustration 1949 01:31:03,640 --> 01:31:05,120 Speaker 1: I was feeling to where other people should have been 1950 01:31:05,160 --> 01:31:08,200 Speaker 1: directed to myself for not trying to understand, well, why 1951 01:31:08,439 --> 01:31:10,320 Speaker 1: is this not working the way I thought it should work. 1952 01:31:10,520 --> 01:31:13,760 Speaker 1: The assumption that they're stupid or they're misled, are there 1953 01:31:14,479 --> 01:31:19,240 Speaker 1: nefarious in some way? That was a real misconception on 1954 01:31:19,320 --> 01:31:23,400 Speaker 1: my part, the misconception that people are just absolutely unreachable 1955 01:31:23,400 --> 01:31:27,000 Speaker 1: and unpersuadable. I have, through the work of this book 1956 01:31:27,280 --> 01:31:29,919 Speaker 1: changed my mind. Thank you, David for being so generous 1957 01:31:29,920 --> 01:31:33,800 Speaker 1: with your time. We have been speaking with David McRaney, 1958 01:31:33,920 --> 01:31:37,240 Speaker 1: the award winning science journalist and author of the book 1959 01:31:37,600 --> 01:31:42,840 Speaker 1: How Minds Change The Surprising science of belief, opinion, and Persuasion. 1960 01:31:44,000 --> 01:31:46,559 Speaker 1: If you enjoy this conversation, be sure and check out 1961 01:31:46,560 --> 01:31:49,320 Speaker 1: any of our four hundred previous discussions over the past 1962 01:31:49,439 --> 01:31:53,919 Speaker 1: eight years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, YouTube, 1963 01:31:54,160 --> 01:31:57,720 Speaker 1: wherever you feed your podcast fix. You can sign up 1964 01:31:57,720 --> 01:32:01,080 Speaker 1: from my daily reading list at rittle dot com. Follow 1965 01:32:01,080 --> 01:32:03,920 Speaker 1: me on Twitter at Ridholts. I would be remiss if 1966 01:32:03,920 --> 01:32:05,960 Speaker 1: I did not thank the crack team that helps put 1967 01:32:06,000 --> 01:32:10,480 Speaker 1: these conversations together each week. Justin Milner was my audio engineer. 1968 01:32:10,880 --> 01:32:14,960 Speaker 1: Atico val Bron is my project manager. Paris Wald is 1969 01:32:15,000 --> 01:32:19,479 Speaker 1: my producer. Sean Russo is my head of research. I'm 1970 01:32:19,560 --> 01:32:23,120 Speaker 1: Barry Ridholts. You've been listening to Masters in Business on 1971 01:32:23,280 --> 01:32:27,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg RADIOA