WEBVTT - Cancer Detection Innovation Could Change Way We Treat 0:00:01.760 --> 0:00:04.400 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:04.440 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovik. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.280 --> 0:00:09.800 you the latest news from the world of business and finance, 0:00:09.800 --> 0:00:13.640 clus technology, politics, economics, all parnessing the power of Business 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:17.119 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:19.960 analyst in more than one twenty countries. You can download 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:23.200 Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. 0:00:23.360 --> 0:00:25.120 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:27.840 pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:32.120 YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Well. Cancer is, according to 0:00:32.120 --> 0:00:35.680 the World Health Organization, one of the leading causes of 0:00:35.720 --> 0:00:39.400 deaths around the world. It accounts for nearly ten million 0:00:39.479 --> 0:00:44.320 deaths a year that was as of so early detection 0:00:44.560 --> 0:00:47.560 is certainly key, and last year Providence became the first 0:00:47.560 --> 0:00:50.360 health system to bring in the cancer screening test Gullery. 0:00:50.800 --> 0:00:53.400 This is a blood test that can provide early detection 0:00:53.640 --> 0:00:56.320 of cancers. To talk more about this, we've got Aura 0:00:56.400 --> 0:00:59.880 Gordon joining us, Regional medical director for Providence Center for 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:04.039 Unical Genetics and Genomics, joining us from Burbank, California. Dr Gordon, 0:01:04.080 --> 0:01:07.800 How are you good afternoon. I'm wonderful. Thank you. Well, 0:01:07.800 --> 0:01:09.600 it's good to have you with us. I gotta tell you, 0:01:09.640 --> 0:01:11.920 before researching this, I'd never heard of the Gallery test. 0:01:12.040 --> 0:01:15.120 Can you tell us what it is and how we 0:01:15.200 --> 0:01:20.600 can learn more about potentially life altering diseases as a 0:01:20.600 --> 0:01:26.399 result of it. Absolutely. So. The Gallery test is based 0:01:26.400 --> 0:01:29.000 on something called self free DNA and it's a blood 0:01:29.000 --> 0:01:31.640 test if you think about COVID or the way we 0:01:31.680 --> 0:01:34.480 test for other infections that we just long been able 0:01:34.520 --> 0:01:38.440 to sequence to figure out what the genetic information is 0:01:38.480 --> 0:01:41.400 for something that's born in our body. So this first 0:01:41.840 --> 0:01:44.480 entered into clinical use about ten years ago with the 0:01:44.480 --> 0:01:47.680 ability to detect DNA from a baby when a woman 0:01:47.800 --> 0:01:50.320 was pregnant to see whether or not the baby had 0:01:50.360 --> 0:01:55.040 problems like chromosome abnormalities, down syndrome, those sorts of things. Well, 0:01:55.040 --> 0:01:57.640 what had happened was and that has taken off and 0:01:57.760 --> 0:02:01.480 is now current standard of care, the non invasive way 0:02:01.600 --> 0:02:04.920 to text detect, you know, prenatal assessment of baby's health. 0:02:05.640 --> 0:02:08.880 But in a few rare cases, there was DNA taken 0:02:08.919 --> 0:02:11.359 from the blood test and the mother that was neither 0:02:11.400 --> 0:02:14.560 the babies nor the moms And what turned out was 0:02:14.600 --> 0:02:17.600 that that was DNA from a cancer and those were 0:02:17.680 --> 0:02:22.359 mutated DNA strands, And this became the beginning of this, 0:02:22.840 --> 0:02:27.519 you know, extraordinary journey too for what is the holy 0:02:27.600 --> 0:02:31.360 grail of trying to detect cancer without any symptoms or signs. 0:02:32.480 --> 0:02:36.400 So yeah, jump on, you had a question. Yeah, so 0:02:36.480 --> 0:02:38.640 this is this is still very early stages. Walk us 0:02:38.680 --> 0:02:44.080 to the timeline here of how we're still progressing. Absolutely, 0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:45.840 So there's been a lot there's been a lot of 0:02:45.960 --> 0:02:49.600 R and D, and AI has gone into studies. But say, okay, fine, 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:52.960 we found this signal now and I'm not part of 0:02:53.000 --> 0:02:56.000 the company. I'm part of a clinical study that is 0:02:56.040 --> 0:02:58.519 really looking at the utility of a test like this. 0:02:59.080 --> 0:03:01.480 So the test can the text not only is their 0:03:01.560 --> 0:03:05.040 cancer present, but then be able to differentiate fifty different 0:03:05.040 --> 0:03:09.160 types of cancer within this one blood test, anything from 0:03:09.280 --> 0:03:12.480 colon to pancreas, to ovary or to blood cancer. So 0:03:12.600 --> 0:03:16.120 this is transformative potentially. Now what we need to know 0:03:16.520 --> 0:03:20.160 is can we actually bend the curve? Can we find 0:03:20.200 --> 0:03:24.120 cancer earlier when it is curable and not you know, 0:03:24.320 --> 0:03:27.079 the devastating late stage disease that we hear about all 0:03:27.080 --> 0:03:29.600 the time in the news, and how does this change 0:03:29.600 --> 0:03:31.800 from an economic standpoint in terms of the care for 0:03:31.840 --> 0:03:34.880 our patients and the ability to save lives. We'll talk 0:03:34.880 --> 0:03:37.880 about early detection here because you mentioned a few cancers 0:03:37.880 --> 0:03:39.440 that I think to a lot of our audience would 0:03:39.440 --> 0:03:43.680 be recognized as essentially having really low rates of survival. 0:03:43.840 --> 0:03:47.240 Pancreatic cancer, for example, some blood cancers that tend to 0:03:47.320 --> 0:03:52.160 kill when you're diagnosed with them, right, so you know, 0:03:52.240 --> 0:03:54.760 when you think about cancer and you think about screening 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:58.440 in our in the US, for example, there are five 0:03:58.600 --> 0:04:03.000 cancers that we have guidelines based recommendations for breast, colon, 0:04:03.160 --> 0:04:06.120 cervical if you've been a smokers, and lung cancer, and 0:04:06.120 --> 0:04:08.760 then there's dialogue around you know, who should have prostate 0:04:08.760 --> 0:04:12.880 cancer screening. Sevent of all cancers, though, are not part 0:04:12.920 --> 0:04:15.600 of any of those that we can screen for. So 0:04:15.800 --> 0:04:18.560 we have tried in earnest to try to figure out 0:04:18.640 --> 0:04:22.280 how do you detect cancers that people may be harboring 0:04:22.360 --> 0:04:26.400 or at risk for. I'm a medical geneticist and internet 0:04:26.520 --> 0:04:29.479 and so I my entire career is devoted to identifying 0:04:29.520 --> 0:04:32.039 those patients who are high risk and doing everything I 0:04:32.080 --> 0:04:35.560 can for prevention and early detection. That's why I was 0:04:35.600 --> 0:04:38.520 so invested, and that's why providence of a health system 0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:43.040 so it's committed to early delivery of a test like 0:04:43.160 --> 0:04:45.520 this to be able to say who is the most 0:04:45.560 --> 0:04:48.279 important patients that need this kind of test. How do 0:04:48.360 --> 0:04:53.120 we help broaden the ability to detect cancer and those 0:04:53.160 --> 0:04:55.920 who may be at elevator risk because they have a 0:04:55.960 --> 0:04:59.640 family history, as they carry a genetic mutation, because they've 0:04:59.640 --> 0:05:02.400 had prior history of cancer, And how do we take 0:05:02.440 --> 0:05:05.760 care of them differently? Yeah, we got about thirty seconds here. 0:05:05.880 --> 0:05:07.320 Why do you answer that? How do we how do 0:05:07.320 --> 0:05:10.360 we move forward? So what we're doing is a five 0:05:10.360 --> 0:05:14.000 thousand person study. People are in various different groups depending 0:05:14.040 --> 0:05:16.160 on whether they have a genetic risk, whether they have 0:05:16.200 --> 0:05:18.479 a personal history that puts them at higher risk. And 0:05:18.520 --> 0:05:21.920 we're doing offering them at no charge blood test, this 0:05:22.080 --> 0:05:25.200 gallery test, with the return of results, and then following 0:05:25.200 --> 0:05:28.080 them forward saying what happens when that test is positive? 0:05:28.080 --> 0:05:30.360 How do we screen them going forward? Do we find 0:05:30.440 --> 0:05:33.440 cancers that we expected? Can we find them earlier stage, 0:05:33.760 --> 0:05:36.000 can we change the course of their disease? And all? 0:05:36.080 --> 0:05:38.960 This is part of a national outcome study called Reflection 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:43.039 and we are, you know, significantly contributing that to try 0:05:43.040 --> 0:05:44.839 to figure out if this is going to be the 0:05:44.920 --> 0:05:47.640 next thing that we start offering everybody on an annual 0:05:47.680 --> 0:05:50.120 basis once we have a kind of outcome data that 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:52.560 we need to really understand who it's best for and 0:05:52.600 --> 0:05:56.040 how to use. Dr Or Gordon, Regional medical director at 0:05:56.080 --> 0:06:00.000 Providence Center for Clinical Genetics and Genomics, joining us from Burbank, California, 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:02.120 talking all about the new gallery tests that they've been 0:06:02.160 --> 0:06:04.240 doing for about a year. Dr Gordon, thank you so 0:06:04.320 --> 0:06:07.600 much for taking the time. Really appreciated. This is Bloomberg 0:06:07.600 --> 0:06:11.320 Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim 0:06:11.320 --> 0:06:14.960 Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, last week we heard from 0:06:15.120 --> 0:06:19.000 x on Mobile Chevron. They posted their highest ever profits, 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:23.320 reaping the rewards from surging commodity prices amidst supply disruptions 0:06:23.600 --> 0:06:27.599 and rising demand. The earnings bananza continues this afternoon after 0:06:27.600 --> 0:06:30.680 the market closes. We're set to hear from Occidental Petroleum 0:06:30.800 --> 0:06:32.800 Corporation and to give us an idea of how we 0:06:32.800 --> 0:06:36.120 should be thinking about all of these companies. And of course, 0:06:36.279 --> 0:06:39.679 the price of oil supply and demanded more is Stuart Glickman, 0:06:39.800 --> 0:06:42.320 head of Energy research at cfr A Research. He joins 0:06:42.360 --> 0:06:44.320 us on the phone from New Jersey. Stewart, how are 0:06:44.320 --> 0:06:47.880 you this afternoon. I'm well, Tim, Thanks for having me well, 0:06:47.960 --> 0:06:49.760 it's really good to have you with us. Um. I 0:06:49.800 --> 0:06:52.200 wanted to just get your take before we get to Occidental, 0:06:52.240 --> 0:06:54.400 before we talk about last week's results at x ON 0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:56.800 and Chevron, I want to get your take on where 0:06:56.839 --> 0:06:59.920 we are when it comes to the energy transition right now. 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:02.600 And when I talk transition, I'm of course talking about 0:07:02.640 --> 0:07:06.720 the movement away from fossil fuels and the movement towards renewables, 0:07:06.800 --> 0:07:09.520 because I think, like a lot of people, I thought 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:11.320 we were further along in that transition than we are. 0:07:11.400 --> 0:07:15.840 Because that's coming to a sharp relief over this last year. Yeah, Tim, 0:07:15.840 --> 0:07:17.960 it really has, and I think part of it is 0:07:19.040 --> 0:07:23.320 arguably wishful thinking on the part of renewables advocates. The 0:07:23.360 --> 0:07:27.400 basic problem Um that renewables are having and filling the 0:07:27.440 --> 0:07:30.200 gap completely for any fossil feels he'd like to substitute 0:07:30.200 --> 0:07:33.080 away from is the problem of intermittency, and so because 0:07:33.120 --> 0:07:35.400 the sun doesn't always shine, the wind isn't always blowing. 0:07:36.000 --> 0:07:41.040 Um it's it's difficult to replace fully and have reliability. 0:07:41.360 --> 0:07:45.720 That's something that Europe I discovered, uh, you know, late 0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:48.360 last year earlier this year with the wind not being 0:07:48.400 --> 0:07:52.320 quite as strong as they had expected, and because of 0:07:52.320 --> 0:07:54.560 what's going on with Russia of course, UM and the 0:07:54.600 --> 0:07:57.600 fact that they've moved away from coal in some cases 0:07:57.600 --> 0:08:01.760 closed nuclear plants. UH, they've been worst to turn back 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:06.000 to uh natural gas power more than they had anticipated. 0:08:06.280 --> 0:08:08.680 I think, certainly, I think the writings on the wall 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:12.240 that eventually we're going to have a bigger transition towards renewables, 0:08:12.240 --> 0:08:15.120 but I think we're probably looking towards more like end 0:08:15.160 --> 0:08:17.680 of this decade and not in the next year or two. Well, 0:08:17.720 --> 0:08:20.679 let's bring it back then to the OPEC story, because 0:08:20.720 --> 0:08:24.400 we have OPEC coming up. Last time around, they said 0:08:24.440 --> 0:08:26.320 that we are going to actually perhaps increase some of 0:08:26.320 --> 0:08:29.080 that production. But I mean, there's so much focused right 0:08:29.080 --> 0:08:31.240 now being put on that spare capacity or lack there 0:08:31.320 --> 0:08:33.280 of at this point, how much of a difference can 0:08:33.280 --> 0:08:37.080 OPEC really make right crazy? So I think there's two issues. 0:08:37.160 --> 0:08:40.320 One is do they have the ability to really ramp 0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:43.120 up production um if they wanted? And then the second 0:08:43.200 --> 0:08:45.920 is the willingness and I think that kind of fall 0:08:46.040 --> 0:08:51.360 short on on both accounts. UM, spare capacity is tight. Uh. Really, 0:08:51.440 --> 0:08:54.319 when we're talking about spirit capacity, we're really talking about 0:08:54.360 --> 0:08:57.920 two major players, uh, Saudi Arabia of course, and then 0:08:57.960 --> 0:09:01.440 you a well the lion share of that UM. And 0:09:01.520 --> 0:09:06.160 with with Russia having more difficulty in finding buyers because 0:09:06.160 --> 0:09:08.720 of what's going on with Ukraine. UM, there's no way 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:12.520 for Saudi Arabia and you A fully replaced everything that's 0:09:12.559 --> 0:09:15.679 that Russia is losing. UM. But then secondly on the 0:09:15.679 --> 0:09:20.400 willingness side, UM, you know the OPEC participants when they meet, 0:09:20.400 --> 0:09:24.640 they're going to be uh concerned along with with you know, 0:09:24.720 --> 0:09:28.559 institutional investors as to whether or not UM we're about 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:31.640 to tip into recession. UM. The factory data hasn't been 0:09:31.720 --> 0:09:35.640 all that stellar lately, and there is a fear that 0:09:36.120 --> 0:09:38.680 you know, high oil prices might be inducing a recession. 0:09:38.720 --> 0:09:41.760 In that case, you know, oil demand could fall apart 0:09:41.800 --> 0:09:46.000 along with GDP. And speaking of when you're talking about okay, well, 0:09:46.040 --> 0:09:47.720 if the Saudi Arabia and the u A you can't 0:09:47.720 --> 0:09:51.000 make up that spirit capacity, Well, there's an entire country 0:09:51.160 --> 0:09:53.920 producers that are waiting to do that which brings me 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:55.679 to the U S profit picture. We do have a 0:09:55.720 --> 0:09:57.319 lot of these big oil names, I mean x On 0:09:57.400 --> 0:10:01.440 Chevron recently reporting these massive profits once again. How long 0:10:01.480 --> 0:10:05.440 does that last? That's a great question, Critty. I think 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:09.800 that the spending discipline that the US oil community has had, 0:10:10.440 --> 0:10:14.040 uh quite honestly was was bought. Was brought into place 0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:19.120 um with a strong push from the institutional investors, because 0:10:19.640 --> 0:10:22.440 the you know, a decade ago, the story in the 0:10:22.440 --> 0:10:25.120 oil community was all about growth. Everyone was talking about 0:10:25.240 --> 0:10:27.120 how much they could be growing production through the drill 0:10:27.160 --> 0:10:30.960 bit and that story began to wane in late and 0:10:31.000 --> 0:10:33.520 really fell apart a couple of years later. And at 0:10:33.520 --> 0:10:36.720 that point institutional investors said, listen, stop telling us about 0:10:36.720 --> 0:10:39.520 your growth plans and start telling us about how much 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:41.600 cash flow you're going to generate, what kind of cost 0:10:41.600 --> 0:10:44.719 efficiencies you're going to um be able to obtain, and 0:10:45.000 --> 0:10:48.320 let's talk about income um you know, in the in 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:51.400 the form of either dividends or buybacks. And that story 0:10:51.559 --> 0:10:54.720 has really remained strong even as oil prices have crested 0:10:54.720 --> 0:10:57.280 over a hundred bucks of barrel. So if you're in 0:10:57.320 --> 0:10:59.400 the oil company, you have to play Kate a whole 0:10:59.440 --> 0:11:03.439 bunch of diff front stakeholders. You've got um right politicians, 0:11:03.440 --> 0:11:06.559 of course, you've got institutional investors, and you have the 0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:10.000 renewable community. So it's it's a very very tight tight 0:11:10.040 --> 0:11:12.520 RELI Walking Stewart. I cannot believe we're out of time. 0:11:12.559 --> 0:11:13.960 We didn't even get a chance to dig into your 0:11:13.960 --> 0:11:15.720 research and on occidental So you've got to come back 0:11:15.720 --> 0:11:17.800 and join us once again soon. Stuart Clickman, head of 0:11:17.920 --> 0:11:20.000 Energy Research at c f A A Research, Joining us 0:11:20.000 --> 0:11:22.920 on the phone from New Jersey. This is Bloomberg Business 0:11:23.000 --> 0:11:26.880 Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg. Quick takes Tim Stinovic 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:30.560 on Bloomberg Radio. Let's check back in on what's happening 0:11:30.760 --> 0:11:34.480 in Taiwan geopolitics front Center, after how speaker Nancy Pelosi 0:11:34.720 --> 0:11:37.720 landing there, becoming the highest ranking American official to visit 0:11:37.760 --> 0:11:39.880 the island in twenty five years, China saying that it 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:43.800 will conduct missile tests and military drills around the island. 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:46.600 Joining us now is my colleague from Bloomberg. Quick takes 0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:49.199 Scarlet Foo. She's with us right now in the Bloomberg 0:11:49.240 --> 0:11:53.200 Interactive Broker's studio. Scarlet Um eager to have you on 0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:55.360 you know you lived and worked in Hong Kong for 0:11:55.440 --> 0:11:57.440 eight years, but you've also got a bit of a 0:11:57.480 --> 0:12:00.440 purse personal history in the region. So before we get 0:12:00.480 --> 0:12:02.760 into talking about Taiwan, I want to hear more about 0:12:02.760 --> 0:12:05.080 your story. Yeah. I used to visit Taiwan regularly. I 0:12:05.080 --> 0:12:07.840 would go every other summer because my grandparents lived there. 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:11.840 My parents grew up in Taiwan. They were born in China, 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:14.280 but they fled to Taiwan with the Nationalist government, grew 0:12:14.320 --> 0:12:16.600 up in Taiwan, and we would go back and visit 0:12:16.640 --> 0:12:20.320 family regularly. So I really was able to see Taiwan 0:12:20.600 --> 0:12:24.960 evolved and developed from a society that lived under martial 0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:28.280 law to a society that was holding free elections. We'll 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:31.240 make of the transition for us from what you understand 0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:35.280 about Taiwan and your experience there and why it's become 0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:38.440 so important in geopolitics today. After all, it's a tiny 0:12:38.520 --> 0:12:41.160 piece of land. Yeah, you and I were talking about 0:12:41.200 --> 0:12:44.760 how geographically the main island of Taiwan is approximately the 0:12:44.880 --> 0:12:47.360 size of what I like to call Red Sox Nation, 0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:51.560 which is Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. But Taiwan also 0:12:51.640 --> 0:12:55.199 claims sovereignty over a bunch of other islands, and it's 0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:56.840 not the only one. There's a bunch of other countries 0:12:56.840 --> 0:12:59.160 that claim sovereignty over these islands too, So there's a 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:04.439 lot of dispute a territory. You've got countries like China, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, 0:13:04.480 --> 0:13:08.120 the Philippines all claiming UH some sovereignty over some of 0:13:08.120 --> 0:13:11.240 those islands. So what is what's so important about it? 0:13:11.440 --> 0:13:14.600 Why do we care about this particular location, Well, Taiwan. 0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:17.800 I mean, in real estate is location, location, location, and 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:19.800 that's kind of the case here because Taiwan is about 0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:23.440 a hundred miles off of china South eastern coast, and 0:13:23.760 --> 0:13:25.160 if you were to look at it on a map, 0:13:25.320 --> 0:13:28.199 it is the biggest land mass between Japan and the Philippines. 0:13:28.320 --> 0:13:31.720 So it's in this crucial position. And so the US 0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:35.160 and every other country in the Asia Asia Pacific region 0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:39.880 sees Taiwan as crucial to containing China and its military 0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:44.240 ambitions and economic ambitions. That's just strategically. Then you've got, 0:13:44.240 --> 0:13:46.559 of course the economics. You guys talk about it all 0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:49.360 the time. The chip industry the world is completely dependent 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:53.040 on Taiwan semiconductors. UH. The island is responsible for about 0:13:53.080 --> 0:13:56.000 nine of the world's most advanced chips. These are the 0:13:56.040 --> 0:13:59.400 chips that power your smartphone, your car, the AI and 0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:01.800 your smartphone, the AI in your car. So it makes 0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:03.800 the world go around right now. So, Scar we were 0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:06.720 talking with the Marlow a little earlier for Bloomberg government, 0:14:06.880 --> 0:14:09.480 and he wrote a story about the flight path of 0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:12.400 Nancy Pelosis that was fascinating. It was fascinating right avoiding 0:14:12.400 --> 0:14:15.199 the South China see very clearly, I mean flying around 0:14:15.240 --> 0:14:17.120 it in a way that you know, it's kind of 0:14:17.120 --> 0:14:20.480 reminiscent of of you know, countries making sure they avoid 0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:24.320 Russia and Ukraine during wartime. So talk to us a 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:28.080 little bit about China's relationship with Taiwan and where it 0:14:28.120 --> 0:14:31.440 stands right now. It's really really complicated, is the short answer. 0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:35.240 It's really actually quite convoluted as well, because if you 0:14:35.320 --> 0:14:39.320 go back to recent history, um Japan had to give 0:14:39.400 --> 0:14:42.280 up Taiwan to China after losing World War Two. But 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:44.800 there was a civil war in China, so the Nationalist 0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:48.400 government that was in China was defeated by the Communist Party. 0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:51.240 They fled the mainland and set up shop in Taiwan. 0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:54.080 They were supported by the US government, which recognized the 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:58.560 Nationalist Party as the rightful government but temporarily displaced government 0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:01.720 of China, and then everything's whitched when the US decided 0:15:01.760 --> 0:15:04.640 to change sides and recognize the Communist government in Beijing instead. 0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:08.600 So in doing so, it recognized that Beijing is the 0:15:08.640 --> 0:15:11.440 seat of government for China. There's only one China, and 0:15:11.520 --> 0:15:14.400 it is the government in Beijing. UH. And China has 0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:17.080 a one China policy. The US agrees with that. UH. 0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:19.840 Taiwan is part of China. The US agrees with that, 0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:23.720 But at the same time, it hasn't really clarified what 0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:26.680 it would do if China were to take Taiwan. And 0:15:26.840 --> 0:15:29.800 taking Taiwan by force, taking Taiwan by welcoming it back 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:33.480 not clear. There's a lot of intentional ambiguity when it 0:15:33.520 --> 0:15:36.040 comes to Taiwan and where it fits in with the 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:38.320 One China policy when it comes to how the US 0:15:38.400 --> 0:15:41.840 is going to act on anything. So why all the 0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:44.640 I want to say chaos when it comes to the 0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:46.840 foreign policy here, because if you said, like you said, 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:51.200 the one China policy, then why support Taiwan. Why is 0:15:51.240 --> 0:15:53.440 this such a big deal? Well, the US has pledged 0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:56.680 to support Taiwan, and it also sells um some military 0:15:56.680 --> 0:16:00.000 equipment to Taiwan as well, and it's very much support 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:04.160 did Taiwan in many ways, but China sees that as 0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:07.040 a threat because China regards Taiwan as a domestic issue. 0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:09.760 If Taiwan is part of China, this is a domestic issue. 0:16:09.800 --> 0:16:11.920 The US has no role or no say in any 0:16:11.920 --> 0:16:15.200 of this. Thirty seconds left, Scarlet, what about the identities 0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:17.240 of the people in Taiwan and they identify that's a 0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:19.640 great question. As time goes by, more and more people 0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:22.920 see themselves as Taiwanese as opposed to Chinese ethnically more 0:16:22.960 --> 0:16:25.800 than the people in Taiwan can trace their roots to 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:28.640 the mainland. But as time goes by, that that taie 0:16:28.720 --> 0:16:32.000 to the mainland really is more and more distant, and 0:16:32.120 --> 0:16:35.800 they start culturally and politically seeing themselves as Taiwanese. Really 0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:38.320 really awesome to speak with you, Scarlet Fu, my colleague 0:16:38.320 --> 0:16:40.240 from Bloomberg quicktake, and this is why I love the 0:16:40.240 --> 0:16:42.640 Bloomberg news room. I mean, you've got people from all 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:46.080 over who've lived and worked in Asia for eight years, 0:16:46.080 --> 0:16:48.480 Scarlet being one of that, and they come back and 0:16:48.520 --> 0:16:51.800 they share their experience with a Scarlet Fu from Bloomberg 0:16:51.880 --> 0:16:57.960 quick take. Really appreciate you taking the time roam a 0:16:58.120 --> 0:17:01.560 journal have but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, 0:17:03.960 --> 0:17:09.480 oh please, I'll do the dride gravels. I want to drive. 0:17:08.160 --> 0:17:17.040 It's good question. This is the drive to the clothes 0:17:18.440 --> 0:17:22.880 well up on Bluebird Radio. Oh my goodness, we're already there. 0:17:22.920 --> 0:17:25.040 We got nine minutes to go to the end of trading. 0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:27.760 The Dow is the clear laggard right now, down by 0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:30.560 more than one percent, being pulled down by Caterpillar. But 0:17:30.600 --> 0:17:32.280 we got a lot to talk about, not just the 0:17:32.320 --> 0:17:34.840 Dow or the SNP or the NASDAC or today, but 0:17:35.040 --> 0:17:37.120 really the big picture right now. We had a great 0:17:37.160 --> 0:17:39.159 guest with us to do that for our drive to 0:17:39.240 --> 0:17:42.200 the closed segment. Abbe desh pon Day is the founder 0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:46.359 and ce IO at Center Stone Investors. Abbe joining us 0:17:46.359 --> 0:17:48.040 once again on the phone from New York City. Abe, 0:17:48.080 --> 0:17:50.080 it's been a few months. How are you all right? 0:17:50.320 --> 0:17:53.400 That's yeah, it's good to have you with us. Um, okay, 0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:54.760 I want to talk about some of your picks. We'll 0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:56.480 do that in just a second. Love hearing you know 0:17:56.520 --> 0:17:58.040 what you've got your eye on. But first I want 0:17:58.080 --> 0:17:59.560 to get your thoughts on where we are in the 0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:05.040 markets is the bottom in It's completely dependent on whether 0:18:05.119 --> 0:18:06.800 or not there is going to be a recession or 0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:09.840 like a real recession, unemployment spiking and all that stuff. 0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:12.040 I don't think we really know yet. There's this in 0:18:12.040 --> 0:18:17.119 between period. So um my, my thoughts are that for 0:18:17.280 --> 0:18:21.200 the most part, other than like a financial crisis, we 0:18:21.359 --> 0:18:24.880 have rolling recessions in this country that affects certain parts 0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:26.560 of the economy, and the interest rates having done with 0:18:26.600 --> 0:18:29.800 they have done, clearly introduces the threat of the recession 0:18:30.480 --> 0:18:34.120 you know in housing related and high ticket capital goods 0:18:34.240 --> 0:18:39.200 type um areas. But that doesn't necessarily be a consumer recession, 0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:43.080 and consumer drives most of the economy. So I'm of 0:18:43.160 --> 0:18:46.240 two minds. Um. One, we could have a recession of 0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:50.560 part of the economy and maybe not in another more 0:18:50.600 --> 0:18:53.840 significant part of the economy, and that allows for the 0:18:53.880 --> 0:18:56.679 stock market to um kind of you know, we went 0:18:56.680 --> 0:19:00.000 do's that's kind of enough. So when you say recession 0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:02.080 and part of the economy, do you mean what are 0:19:02.080 --> 0:19:04.880 you referring to? I mean, are you for into manufacturing retail? 0:19:05.080 --> 0:19:07.240 Mean because they consumers? You know, we're learning some interesting 0:19:07.240 --> 0:19:10.639 stuff from companies, right now yeah, I mean some of 0:19:10.680 --> 0:19:13.560 those interesting things are that there's been no impact on 0:19:15.480 --> 0:19:17.199 unless you're at the lower end, right, like with a 0:19:17.240 --> 0:19:21.040 Target or Walmart. Yeah, and even then that's mostly done 0:19:21.080 --> 0:19:24.280 trying to cycle through. You know, everybody last quarter of 0:19:24.359 --> 0:19:26.639 last year just double ordered a bunch of stuff because 0:19:26.640 --> 0:19:28.919 of the shipping delays and all that. Now they've had 0:19:28.960 --> 0:19:32.080 to discount that. That's that's not because demand has fallen 0:19:32.119 --> 0:19:35.440 off of Cliff, It's because they've got a new product 0:19:35.440 --> 0:19:39.360 out of their stores, perishable products sometimes. Um. I mean 0:19:39.600 --> 0:19:42.640 that you clearly have a lot of you know, um 0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:45.960 stressors and economy of prices having risen in food, you know, 0:19:46.040 --> 0:19:49.440 shortages around the world creating an impact even here in 0:19:49.440 --> 0:19:53.480 the United States, oil prices having been fuel prices having 0:19:53.480 --> 0:19:56.520 gone up. But um, you know you don't quite see 0:19:56.560 --> 0:20:00.000 the impact on the ground yet. Um outside of house 0:20:00.400 --> 0:20:02.560 which is where you expect mortgages rates have gone up 0:20:02.560 --> 0:20:07.639 as much as I think you had it the way. Um. 0:20:07.800 --> 0:20:09.480 You know, for us the answer is always been to 0:20:09.520 --> 0:20:13.800 be diversified. Um. That means across the world, Uh, not 0:20:13.920 --> 0:20:17.639 to be targeted specifically like I don't know, tech stocks 0:20:17.640 --> 0:20:19.880 and what have you, or even just value stocks. We're 0:20:19.960 --> 0:20:23.280 value investors, um, so you know our preferences to find 0:20:23.280 --> 0:20:28.040 securities that traded discounts to their their intrinsic value. But 0:20:28.240 --> 0:20:31.080 there are you know, looking at our portfolio, which we 0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:33.479 center so we build it from the bottom up. There 0:20:33.520 --> 0:20:36.119 are some interesting themes that are developing, you know, so 0:20:36.320 --> 0:20:40.520 walk us through them. Well, one is that you're you know, 0:20:40.520 --> 0:20:44.639 we only a company called Granger. It's industrial parts distribution 0:20:44.840 --> 0:20:48.200 or I guess it feeds industrial plants and what not 0:20:48.400 --> 0:20:52.679 with the parts that they need, um for producing you know, 0:20:52.960 --> 0:20:58.280 anything from cars to windows, and uh, their business is 0:20:58.359 --> 0:21:01.000 really humming. And there's you know, there's there's something to 0:21:01.000 --> 0:21:03.480 be said about a longer term trend of on shoring 0:21:03.520 --> 0:21:07.040 of the supply chain into back into North America, United 0:21:07.080 --> 0:21:10.440 States and Canada. So companies like that maybe as how 0:21:10.600 --> 0:21:12.119 you said you own it, when did you get in 0:21:13.640 --> 0:21:16.240 uh many many years ago. I was looking at the 0:21:16.280 --> 0:21:19.600 stock chart and wow, this is quite the stock chart, folks. 0:21:20.560 --> 0:21:25.480 Wwww and it is actually a massive acceleration from the 0:21:25.480 --> 0:21:29.080 bottom of it's actually at a record high and stock 0:21:29.080 --> 0:21:32.520 price right now. Shares here five are you're not concerned 0:21:32.520 --> 0:21:36.560