WEBVTT - An Inside Exploration of the War in Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Krol Messer and

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<v Speaker 1>Tim Stenebek on Bloomberg Radio. We features Matt soaring as

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<v Speaker 1>much as nine percent in Chicago as Russia issued a

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<v Speaker 1>warning on the safety of new vessels headed to Ukrainian ports.

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<v Speaker 1>The Russian War in Ukraine now and its second year,

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<v Speaker 1>continues to upend and devastate the lives of so many,

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<v Speaker 1>sometimes ritles of the financial markets, testing geopolitical relationships. But

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<v Speaker 1>first and format most, you think of the lives that

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<v Speaker 1>are lost and just the devastation in that country.

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<v Speaker 2>I just can't imagine having a foreign power invade you

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<v Speaker 2>in your country and destroy everything around you, killing friends

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<v Speaker 2>and family or even you, and this has happened to

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<v Speaker 2>them on numerous occasions. I think of the people.

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<v Speaker 1>First, right exactly. We have a guest with us who

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<v Speaker 1>spent time on the ground in Ukraine reported on events

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<v Speaker 1>over the past decade that have really shaped that country.

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<v Speaker 1>Joining us is Christopher Miller, Financial Times correspondent. He's got

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<v Speaker 1>a new book out.

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<v Speaker 3>It's called The War.

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<v Speaker 1>Came to Us, Life and Death in Ukraine. He is

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<v Speaker 1>with us on Zoom from Kiv, Ukraine, and we know

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<v Speaker 1>it's a little bit later there, So thank you so

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<v Speaker 1>much for staying up and joining us. Talk to us

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<v Speaker 1>first of all about your history connection to Ukraine, because

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<v Speaker 1>I think it goes back. I think more than thirteen years,

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<v Speaker 1>fourteen years. You actually worked for the Peace Corps.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's right. Actually it's been just about thirteen and

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<v Speaker 3>a half years now. I first arrived in Ukraine in

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<v Speaker 3>spring of twenty ten, which was a very different a

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<v Speaker 3>very different country at that at that moment in time,

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<v Speaker 3>this was peacetime Ukraine. You know, it had its issues,

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<v Speaker 3>and if you recall the president that was ousted by

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<v Speaker 3>the Euromidon Revolution in twenty fourteen, he had just come

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<v Speaker 3>into office two months before I arrived, so it was

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<v Speaker 3>still a challenging time, but this was pre war time.

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<v Speaker 3>I spent two years living in the eastern Ukrainian city

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<v Speaker 3>of Artielmosk, which now is called Bakhmu, and many of

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<v Speaker 3>your viewers will probably recognize it as more recently the

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<v Speaker 3>site of the grueling ten month long battle that ended

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<v Speaker 3>in May with the city completely raised to the ground.

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<v Speaker 3>And so you know, that was something that was I

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<v Speaker 3>was reporting on very closely and watching very closely because

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<v Speaker 3>I had a lot of friends living there. It was

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<v Speaker 3>a place that I essentially taken as my second home.

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<v Speaker 3>And yeah, so it's been more than thirteen years here.

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<v Speaker 2>And I mean, just tell us what it means to you,

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<v Speaker 2>because you're still there. You've spent a lot of your

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<v Speaker 2>career covering events in Ukraine, the people of Ukraine, the

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<v Speaker 2>culture of the economy. You know, how did it touch you,

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<v Speaker 2>How did it affect you?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean, you know, I've been here for such

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<v Speaker 3>a long period of time because I really do have

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<v Speaker 3>a deep connection to this place. You know, I would

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<v Speaker 3>go so far to say that this is it's become

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<v Speaker 3>an adopted home in a way. I've made a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of very close friends. I've seen them grow up, get married,

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<v Speaker 3>fall in love, have children, and in some cases go

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<v Speaker 3>off to war and even to sacrifice their lives for

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<v Speaker 3>their country. You know, I've seen, as you mentioned, this

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<v Speaker 3>place change politically, economically obviously, moved from peacetime into wartime.

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<v Speaker 3>And in this book, you know that all of that

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<v Speaker 3>is captured, but it's told through the stories of the many,

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<v Speaker 3>many incredible Ukrainians that I've met along the way, and

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<v Speaker 3>through the experiences that I've been lucky enough to have

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<v Speaker 3>over the course of my time here.

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<v Speaker 1>So how to take us to where you were when

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<v Speaker 1>the war broke out February twenty fourth, twenty twenty two.

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<v Speaker 3>Where were you? Yeah, I was actually in a hotel

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<v Speaker 3>in eastern Ukraine and the city of Krematorsk. If you

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<v Speaker 3>recall Vladimir Putin's speech just a few hours before the invasion,

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<v Speaker 3>or maybe even a shorter period of time, actually, he

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<v Speaker 3>had said that this quote unquote special military operation was

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<v Speaker 3>going to focus on capturing the eastern Ukrainian regions of

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<v Speaker 3>Danetsk and Lugansk, which he deemed to be Russian. And

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<v Speaker 3>so with that in mind, even days prior, thinking that

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<v Speaker 3>Putin's war would likely focus on the east, where a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of the fighting had taken place for the previous

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<v Speaker 3>eight years. At that time, because the war began in

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<v Speaker 3>twenty fourteen and went on for years in that region,

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<v Speaker 3>I thought that this would be a war on a

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<v Speaker 3>much greater scale, but that it still would be focused

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<v Speaker 3>largely on the east and likely the south of Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, I didn't. It was really difficult at that

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<v Speaker 3>moment to believe that the Russians would try their hand

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<v Speaker 3>at the sort of blitzkrieg that they did end up

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<v Speaker 3>conducting in an attempt to try to take kav So.

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<v Speaker 3>Early that morning, I was lying wide awake on my

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<v Speaker 3>bed in my hotel in eastern Ukraine when a series

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<v Speaker 3>of missiles exploded just two thousand feet away at the

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<v Speaker 3>Krematorsk airfield, knocking out logistical equipment there and damaging the

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<v Speaker 3>airfield and shaking me and several other journalists in this

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<v Speaker 3>hotel awake, and we quick quickly ran down to the

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<v Speaker 3>bomb shelter until we could figure out what was going on.

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<v Speaker 3>There were a lot of Russian and Ukrainian jets flying

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<v Speaker 3>in the air, missiles overhead, and it was chaos and

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 2>Talk to us about Putin's motivation, and he of course

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<v Speaker 2>had already annex Crimea in twenty fourteen. What are his

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<v Speaker 2>claims as to why you know he's doing this? Is

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<v Speaker 2>that there are so many Russians in the area. I

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<v Speaker 2>know he's also claimed that they're neo Nazis. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>some of those things may be more credible than others.

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<v Speaker 3>What's your view, right, Well, does make a lot of claims,

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<v Speaker 3>and very few of them are grounded in fact and truth.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, he does not view Ukraine as a real country.

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<v Speaker 3>He has said that time and time again, and I

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<v Speaker 3>think he has also pushed this message and so have

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<v Speaker 3>his propagandists in Russian state media, that Ukrainians are not

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<v Speaker 3>a real people, that essentially they are Russians who have

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<v Speaker 3>lost their way. And so what he's trying to do,

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<v Speaker 3>essentially is eradicate this country and its people, to bring

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<v Speaker 3>this place into Russia's fold. He has already in according

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<v Speaker 3>out well under Russian law quote unquote annexed for regions

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<v Speaker 3>of Ukraine where his troops are currently entrenched and occupying.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, obviously the international community does not recognize this annexation,

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<v Speaker 3>nor the annexation of Crimea, which happened back in twenty fourteen.

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<v Speaker 3>But his ultimate goal really is to destroy this country,

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<v Speaker 3>to take it over to uh you know, bend it

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<v Speaker 3>to its to to his will and and and to

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<v Speaker 3>keep it essentially as this buffer state that I think

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<v Speaker 3>much of the Soviet leadership and even post Soviet leadership

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<v Speaker 3>has seen as a way to keep NATO and the

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<v Speaker 3>West further from Moscow.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, the title of your book, Chris, is the

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<v Speaker 1>war came to us? Is it a Is it a

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<v Speaker 1>war that you think could have been avoided. And if so, how.

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<v Speaker 3>That's a really difficult question. You know. In some ways,

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<v Speaker 3>I think, perhaps you know, that all wars could be avoided,

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<v Speaker 3>but you know, in this, in this particular case, I

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<v Speaker 3>do think that, like I said, the claims that of

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<v Speaker 3>Vladimir Putin has made about NATO encroachment, for example, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>are just flat out not true. And this seems more

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<v Speaker 3>like a personal mission of his. You know, he is

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<v Speaker 3>a small man trying to do big things. You know,

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<v Speaker 3>he is trying to restore what he believes is Russia's

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<v Speaker 3>greatness and to restore it to the great power that

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<v Speaker 3>he believed the Soviet Union to be. He said time

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<v Speaker 3>and time again that the collapse of the Soviet Union

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<v Speaker 3>was a major catastrophe. So I'm not sure actually if

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<v Speaker 3>this war could have been avoided. But I think there

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<v Speaker 3>are things that could have been done along the way,

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<v Speaker 3>particularly by our leaders in the West and in the

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<v Speaker 3>United States, that could have perhaps dissuaded Vladimir Raputin from

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<v Speaker 3>launching this full scale war after his annexation of Primea

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<v Speaker 3>and the war in twenty fourteen and the dawn Boss.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to get back to our guest we're talking

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<v Speaker 1>with Christopher Miller, Financial Times correspondent. His new book out

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<v Speaker 1>the War came to Us, Life and Death in Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 1>He's been living in Ukraine and reporting on it for

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<v Speaker 1>more than a decade. He's still with us on Zoom

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<v Speaker 1>in Kiev, Ukraine. And you know, Matt and I were

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<v Speaker 1>talking about kind of past history that kind of got

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<v Speaker 1>us to exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, when when Carol asked Chris if this war

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<v Speaker 2>could have been avoided? I immediately started thinking about the

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<v Speaker 2>appeasement that we saw after the annexation of Crimea. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>the US didn't do anything about it. The Germans not

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<v Speaker 2>only did nothing about it, but continued to buy Russian gas,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, in effect funding Putin's escapades, if I can

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<v Speaker 2>use such a lighthearted term. Are you worried that the

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<v Speaker 2>international community doesn't isn't going to have the resolve that

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<v Speaker 2>the Ukrainian people do, that they're not going to be

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<v Speaker 2>able to stick together because we still Russia's oil and gas.

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<v Speaker 2>We still find ways of buying it even though we sanction.

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<v Speaker 3>Them, right, Yeah, I think you know, I do have

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<v Speaker 3>some concern there, and that concern is rooted in what

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<v Speaker 3>you pointed out, which was a lack of response in

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<v Speaker 3>twenty fourteen. You could even go back further and say

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<v Speaker 3>that the West really didn't learn the lesson after Russia's

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<v Speaker 3>two thousand and eight invasion of Georgia. You know, this

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<v Speaker 3>war in Ukraine has been grinding on now for more

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<v Speaker 3>than nine years. Is certainly a big concern on the

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<v Speaker 3>part of Ukrainians here and its leadership, President Voldemo mad Zelenski,

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<v Speaker 3>is that there will be a Ukraine fatigue that sets in,

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<v Speaker 3>and that the incredible support that Ukraine has been getting

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<v Speaker 3>in terms of military equipment, financial support over the past

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<v Speaker 3>year and a half since the full scale invasion began,

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<v Speaker 3>could start winding down, particularly if Ukraine is unsick ccessful

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<v Speaker 3>in its counter offensive that's happening right now in the

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<v Speaker 3>east and the south of the country. Ukraine's been having

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<v Speaker 3>less success than it had hoped so far. It's going

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<v Speaker 3>a lot more slowly than many people had anticipated. That

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<v Speaker 3>is largely because Russian defenses are really, really strong. They've

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<v Speaker 3>had a long time to dig in and you know,

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<v Speaker 3>certainly with President Zelenski making these these now several trips abroad,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, even beginning last December with his visit to Washington,

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<v Speaker 3>later to London, and then more recently several capitals here

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<v Speaker 3>in Europe and then the NATO summit. This really is,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, his diplomatic efforts to keep Western allies focused

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<v Speaker 3>on the conflict and to ensure long term, long term support.

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<v Speaker 1>Christopher, what I wonder though, if Russia is successful and

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<v Speaker 1>wins this war. Feels like there's no winner in war.

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<v Speaker 2>I can't imagine how that would even happen. But if it.

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<v Speaker 1>Does, I mean, or is it a point where NATO

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<v Speaker 1>allies cannot let him win? Because I do wonder, then

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<v Speaker 1>what's next?

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<v Speaker 3>Right, there's absolutely a concern that if Russia is successful

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<v Speaker 3>in Ukraine, and I think we can argue about what

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<v Speaker 3>certainly success might look like after losing tens of thousands

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<v Speaker 3>of people, you know, seeing your military decimated. But let's

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<v Speaker 3>just say, let's just say things don't turn out well

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<v Speaker 3>for the Ukrainians, Russia, you know, manages some type of

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<v Speaker 3>military victory here, then you know that certainly could embolden China,

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<v Speaker 3>for example. It could also lead Russia to rebuild its

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<v Speaker 3>military over the next few years and perhaps look at

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<v Speaker 3>for example, you know, some people believe that Putin would

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<v Speaker 3>like to invade the Baltics. You know, there there's a

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<v Speaker 3>lot that that could happen. But right now, what's what's uh,

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<v Speaker 3>you know that that that victory or victory for any

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<v Speaker 3>side right now is a lot less clear. It's it's

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<v Speaker 3>very much at the moment a war of attrition. The

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<v Speaker 3>two sides really just duking it out on the battlefield,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, each side trying to gain the upper hand.

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<v Speaker 3>The Ukrainian really banking on Western support to to help

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<v Speaker 3>them gain that upper hand, and hoping that this counter

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<v Speaker 3>offensive is successful in resting back enough territory that perhaps

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<v Speaker 3>in the months to come they could force the Russians

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<v Speaker 3>to the negotiating table and have the momentum when they

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<v Speaker 3>do so.

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<v Speaker 2>Chris, it looks to us, I think, yes, fair to

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<v Speaker 2>say like the Ukrainians have done very well as Wagner

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<v Speaker 2>h falls out of the picture right as Progotion, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>took his toys and marched up to Moscow. Uh, it

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<v Speaker 2>looked like a very weak time for Putin and without

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<v Speaker 2>the Wagner group, the Russian are seems bungling. Is that

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<v Speaker 2>the right view of it?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah? More or less, you know, the Wagner mercenary group

0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:12.080
<v Speaker 3>has been one of the only Russian units and an

0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:16.920
<v Speaker 3>irregular one that has had offensive success on the battlefield. Here,

0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:20.440
<v Speaker 3>you'll recall that the regular Russian Army hasn't really had

0:14:20.800 --> 0:14:26.240
<v Speaker 3>a battlefield victory or the capture of a Ukrainian significant

0:14:26.320 --> 0:14:30.480
<v Speaker 3>Ukrainian city in more than a year now, and Wagner

0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:35.640
<v Speaker 3>was the group that led the Russian offensive in bak Mout,

0:14:35.800 --> 0:14:39.080
<v Speaker 3>eventually capturing that city but completely destroying it and raising

0:14:39.080 --> 0:14:41.440
<v Speaker 3>it to the ground in order to do so. With

0:14:41.520 --> 0:14:44.280
<v Speaker 3>them off the battlefield, Yes, there is some concern that,

0:14:44.840 --> 0:14:48.800
<v Speaker 3>at least on the Russian side right that they may

0:14:48.880 --> 0:14:52.520
<v Speaker 3>struggle in future offensive action. That said, and they've had

0:14:52.560 --> 0:14:56.720
<v Speaker 3>a long time to train up new troops. They are

0:14:56.920 --> 0:14:59.120
<v Speaker 3>really well dug in in the south and the east

0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:01.560
<v Speaker 3>of the country, and they're giving the Ukrainians in their

0:15:01.560 --> 0:15:04.200
<v Speaker 3>counter offensive all kinds of trouble. So right now this

0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:08.480
<v Speaker 3>really is Ukraine's moment foreign offensive. The Russians are playing defense,

0:15:09.400 --> 0:15:12.720
<v Speaker 3>but because of Ukraine's so far lack of success. But

0:15:12.760 --> 0:15:15.600
<v Speaker 3>there's still a lot of time and Ukraine has reserves

0:15:15.600 --> 0:15:19.720
<v Speaker 3>to get success. Yeah, you know, right now Wagner has

0:15:19.760 --> 0:15:23.400
<v Speaker 3>had a minor impact, but we'll see.

0:15:24.000 --> 0:15:26.000
<v Speaker 1>Forgive me for jumping in because we're running out of time.

0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:28.920
<v Speaker 1>Just got about thirty seconds. You're on the ground, you

0:15:29.000 --> 0:15:31.520
<v Speaker 1>know this country, You've seen a lot, and like you said,

0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:33.920
<v Speaker 1>it's not just the last year and a half where

0:15:34.120 --> 0:15:37.200
<v Speaker 1>troubles were brewing. We've obviously it's been happening for a while.

0:15:37.560 --> 0:15:41.200
<v Speaker 1>In terms of Ukraine, thirty seconds, what can you just

0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:44.040
<v Speaker 1>quickly tell us about what maybe we're not we're missing

0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:45.560
<v Speaker 1>from the headlines, or we need to keep kind of

0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:46.840
<v Speaker 1>front and center really quickly.

0:15:48.360 --> 0:15:52.440
<v Speaker 3>I think I think it's the just it's important to

0:15:52.520 --> 0:15:55.120
<v Speaker 3>keep Ukraine in the headlines, to keep talking about Ukraine

0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:59.160
<v Speaker 3>the support that Ukraine needs, you know, right now, the

0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:03.640
<v Speaker 3>Ukrainian's big concerns is that attention will wane and that

0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:06.560
<v Speaker 3>a lot of America will focus this attention on its

0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:10.480
<v Speaker 3>elections and domestic issues, which of course are important. But

0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:12.720
<v Speaker 3>the Ukrainians will tell you this is a fight for

0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:16.480
<v Speaker 3>their freedom and independence, something that should resonate with Americans

0:16:16.920 --> 0:16:20.200
<v Speaker 3>and that it's important for American support to continue.

0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:22.760
<v Speaker 1>Well, so appreciate your time, and I know it's late there,

0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:25.880
<v Speaker 1>but thank you again. Christopher Miller Financial Times corresponded his

0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:28.560
<v Speaker 1>new book, The War Came to us life and death

0:16:28.600 --> 0:16:31.720
<v Speaker 1>in Ukraine, joining us there from Kiev. This is Bloomberg