Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Krol Messer and
Speaker 1: Tim Stenebek on Bloomberg Radio. We features Matt soaring as
Speaker 1: much as nine percent in Chicago as Russia issued a
Speaker 1: warning on the safety of new vessels headed to Ukrainian ports.
Speaker 1: The Russian War in Ukraine now and its second year,
Speaker 1: continues to upend and devastate the lives of so many,
Speaker 1: sometimes ritles of the financial markets, testing geopolitical relationships. But
Speaker 1: first and format most, you think of the lives that
Speaker 1: are lost and just the devastation in that country.
Speaker 2: I just can't imagine having a foreign power invade you
Speaker 2: in your country and destroy everything around you, killing friends
Speaker 2: and family or even you, and this has happened to
Speaker 2: them on numerous occasions. I think of the people.
Speaker 1: First, right exactly. We have a guest with us who
Speaker 1: spent time on the ground in Ukraine reported on events
Speaker 1: over the past decade that have really shaped that country.
Speaker 1: Joining us is Christopher Miller, Financial Times correspondent. He's got
Speaker 1: a new book out.
Speaker 3: It's called The War.
Speaker 1: Came to Us, Life and Death in Ukraine. He is
Speaker 1: with us on Zoom from Kiv, Ukraine, and we know
Speaker 1: it's a little bit later there, So thank you so
Speaker 1: much for staying up and joining us. Talk to us
Speaker 1: first of all about your history connection to Ukraine, because
Speaker 1: I think it goes back. I think more than thirteen years,
Speaker 1: fourteen years. You actually worked for the Peace Corps.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right. Actually it's been just about thirteen and
Speaker 3: a half years now. I first arrived in Ukraine in
Speaker 3: spring of twenty ten, which was a very different a
Speaker 3: very different country at that at that moment in time,
Speaker 3: this was peacetime Ukraine. You know, it had its issues,
Speaker 3: and if you recall the president that was ousted by
Speaker 3: the Euromidon Revolution in twenty fourteen, he had just come
Speaker 3: into office two months before I arrived, so it was
Speaker 3: still a challenging time, but this was pre war time.
Speaker 3: I spent two years living in the eastern Ukrainian city
Speaker 3: of Artielmosk, which now is called Bakhmu, and many of
Speaker 3: your viewers will probably recognize it as more recently the
Speaker 3: site of the grueling ten month long battle that ended
Speaker 3: in May with the city completely raised to the ground.
Speaker 3: And so you know, that was something that was I
Speaker 3: was reporting on very closely and watching very closely because
Speaker 3: I had a lot of friends living there. It was
Speaker 3: a place that I essentially taken as my second home.
Speaker 3: And yeah, so it's been more than thirteen years here.
Speaker 2: And I mean, just tell us what it means to you,
Speaker 2: because you're still there. You've spent a lot of your
Speaker 2: career covering events in Ukraine, the people of Ukraine, the
Speaker 2: culture of the economy. You know, how did it touch you,
Speaker 2: How did it affect you?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you know, I've been here for such
Speaker 3: a long period of time because I really do have
Speaker 3: a deep connection to this place. You know, I would
Speaker 3: go so far to say that this is it's become
Speaker 3: an adopted home in a way. I've made a lot
Speaker 3: of very close friends. I've seen them grow up, get married,
Speaker 3: fall in love, have children, and in some cases go
Speaker 3: off to war and even to sacrifice their lives for
Speaker 3: their country. You know, I've seen, as you mentioned, this
Speaker 3: place change politically, economically obviously, moved from peacetime into wartime.
Speaker 3: And in this book, you know that all of that
Speaker 3: is captured, but it's told through the stories of the many,
Speaker 3: many incredible Ukrainians that I've met along the way, and
Speaker 3: through the experiences that I've been lucky enough to have
Speaker 3: over the course of my time here.
Speaker 1: So how to take us to where you were when
Speaker 1: the war broke out February twenty fourth, twenty twenty two.
Speaker 3: Where were you? Yeah, I was actually in a hotel
Speaker 3: in eastern Ukraine and the city of Krematorsk. If you
Speaker 3: recall Vladimir Putin's speech just a few hours before the invasion,
Speaker 3: or maybe even a shorter period of time, actually, he
Speaker 3: had said that this quote unquote special military operation was
Speaker 3: going to focus on capturing the eastern Ukrainian regions of
Speaker 3: Danetsk and Lugansk, which he deemed to be Russian. And
Speaker 3: so with that in mind, even days prior, thinking that
Speaker 3: Putin's war would likely focus on the east, where a
Speaker 3: lot of the fighting had taken place for the previous
Speaker 3: eight years. At that time, because the war began in
Speaker 3: twenty fourteen and went on for years in that region,
Speaker 3: I thought that this would be a war on a
Speaker 3: much greater scale, but that it still would be focused
Speaker 3: largely on the east and likely the south of Ukraine.
Speaker 3: You know, I didn't. It was really difficult at that
Speaker 3: moment to believe that the Russians would try their hand
Speaker 3: at the sort of blitzkrieg that they did end up
Speaker 3: conducting in an attempt to try to take kav So.
Speaker 3: Early that morning, I was lying wide awake on my
Speaker 3: bed in my hotel in eastern Ukraine when a series
Speaker 3: of missiles exploded just two thousand feet away at the
Speaker 3: Krematorsk airfield, knocking out logistical equipment there and damaging the
Speaker 3: airfield and shaking me and several other journalists in this
Speaker 3: hotel awake, and we quick quickly ran down to the
Speaker 3: bomb shelter until we could figure out what was going on.
Speaker 3: There were a lot of Russian and Ukrainian jets flying
Speaker 3: in the air, missiles overhead, and it was chaos and
Speaker 3: a lot of uncertainty.
Speaker 2: Talk to us about Putin's motivation, and he of course
Speaker 2: had already annex Crimea in twenty fourteen. What are his
Speaker 2: claims as to why you know he's doing this? Is
Speaker 2: that there are so many Russians in the area. I
Speaker 2: know he's also claimed that they're neo Nazis. I mean,
Speaker 2: some of those things may be more credible than others.
Speaker 3: What's your view, right, Well, does make a lot of claims,
Speaker 3: and very few of them are grounded in fact and truth.
Speaker 3: You know, he does not view Ukraine as a real country.
Speaker 3: He has said that time and time again, and I
Speaker 3: think he has also pushed this message and so have
Speaker 3: his propagandists in Russian state media, that Ukrainians are not
Speaker 3: a real people, that essentially they are Russians who have
Speaker 3: lost their way. And so what he's trying to do,
Speaker 3: essentially is eradicate this country and its people, to bring
Speaker 3: this place into Russia's fold. He has already in according
Speaker 3: out well under Russian law quote unquote annexed for regions
Speaker 3: of Ukraine where his troops are currently entrenched and occupying.
Speaker 3: You know, obviously the international community does not recognize this annexation,
Speaker 3: nor the annexation of Crimea, which happened back in twenty fourteen.
Speaker 3: But his ultimate goal really is to destroy this country,
Speaker 3: to take it over to uh you know, bend it
Speaker 3: to its to to his will and and and to
Speaker 3: keep it essentially as this buffer state that I think
Speaker 3: much of the Soviet leadership and even post Soviet leadership
Speaker 3: has seen as a way to keep NATO and the
Speaker 3: West further from Moscow.
Speaker 1: You know, the title of your book, Chris, is the
Speaker 1: war came to us? Is it a Is it a
Speaker 1: war that you think could have been avoided. And if so, how.
Speaker 3: That's a really difficult question. You know. In some ways,
Speaker 3: I think, perhaps you know, that all wars could be avoided,
Speaker 3: but you know, in this, in this particular case, I
Speaker 3: do think that, like I said, the claims that of
Speaker 3: Vladimir Putin has made about NATO encroachment, for example, you know,
Speaker 3: are just flat out not true. And this seems more
Speaker 3: like a personal mission of his. You know, he is
Speaker 3: a small man trying to do big things. You know,
Speaker 3: he is trying to restore what he believes is Russia's
Speaker 3: greatness and to restore it to the great power that
Speaker 3: he believed the Soviet Union to be. He said time
Speaker 3: and time again that the collapse of the Soviet Union
Speaker 3: was a major catastrophe. So I'm not sure actually if
Speaker 3: this war could have been avoided. But I think there
Speaker 3: are things that could have been done along the way,
Speaker 3: particularly by our leaders in the West and in the
Speaker 3: United States, that could have perhaps dissuaded Vladimir Raputin from
Speaker 3: launching this full scale war after his annexation of Primea
Speaker 3: and the war in twenty fourteen and the dawn Boss.
Speaker 1: I want to get back to our guest we're talking
Speaker 1: with Christopher Miller, Financial Times correspondent. His new book out
Speaker 1: the War came to Us, Life and Death in Ukraine.
Speaker 1: He's been living in Ukraine and reporting on it for
Speaker 1: more than a decade. He's still with us on Zoom
Speaker 1: in Kiev, Ukraine. And you know, Matt and I were
Speaker 1: talking about kind of past history that kind of got
Speaker 1: us to exactly.
Speaker 2: I mean, when when Carol asked Chris if this war
Speaker 2: could have been avoided? I immediately started thinking about the
Speaker 2: appeasement that we saw after the annexation of Crimea. You know,
Speaker 2: the US didn't do anything about it. The Germans not
Speaker 2: only did nothing about it, but continued to buy Russian gas,
Speaker 2: you know, in effect funding Putin's escapades, if I can
Speaker 2: use such a lighthearted term. Are you worried that the
Speaker 2: international community doesn't isn't going to have the resolve that
Speaker 2: the Ukrainian people do, that they're not going to be
Speaker 2: able to stick together because we still Russia's oil and gas.
Speaker 2: We still find ways of buying it even though we sanction.
Speaker 3: Them, right, Yeah, I think you know, I do have
Speaker 3: some concern there, and that concern is rooted in what
Speaker 3: you pointed out, which was a lack of response in
Speaker 3: twenty fourteen. You could even go back further and say
Speaker 3: that the West really didn't learn the lesson after Russia's
Speaker 3: two thousand and eight invasion of Georgia. You know, this
Speaker 3: war in Ukraine has been grinding on now for more
Speaker 3: than nine years. Is certainly a big concern on the
Speaker 3: part of Ukrainians here and its leadership, President Voldemo mad Zelenski,
Speaker 3: is that there will be a Ukraine fatigue that sets in,
Speaker 3: and that the incredible support that Ukraine has been getting
Speaker 3: in terms of military equipment, financial support over the past
Speaker 3: year and a half since the full scale invasion began,
Speaker 3: could start winding down, particularly if Ukraine is unsick ccessful
Speaker 3: in its counter offensive that's happening right now in the
Speaker 3: east and the south of the country. Ukraine's been having
Speaker 3: less success than it had hoped so far. It's going
Speaker 3: a lot more slowly than many people had anticipated. That
Speaker 3: is largely because Russian defenses are really, really strong. They've
Speaker 3: had a long time to dig in and you know,
Speaker 3: certainly with President Zelenski making these these now several trips abroad,
Speaker 3: you know, even beginning last December with his visit to Washington,
Speaker 3: later to London, and then more recently several capitals here
Speaker 3: in Europe and then the NATO summit. This really is,
Speaker 3: you know, his diplomatic efforts to keep Western allies focused
Speaker 3: on the conflict and to ensure long term, long term support.
Speaker 1: Christopher, what I wonder though, if Russia is successful and
Speaker 1: wins this war. Feels like there's no winner in war.
Speaker 2: I can't imagine how that would even happen. But if it.
Speaker 1: Does, I mean, or is it a point where NATO
Speaker 1: allies cannot let him win? Because I do wonder, then
Speaker 1: what's next?
Speaker 3: Right, there's absolutely a concern that if Russia is successful
Speaker 3: in Ukraine, and I think we can argue about what
Speaker 3: certainly success might look like after losing tens of thousands
Speaker 3: of people, you know, seeing your military decimated. But let's
Speaker 3: just say, let's just say things don't turn out well
Speaker 3: for the Ukrainians, Russia, you know, manages some type of
Speaker 3: military victory here, then you know that certainly could embolden China,
Speaker 3: for example. It could also lead Russia to rebuild its
Speaker 3: military over the next few years and perhaps look at
Speaker 3: for example, you know, some people believe that Putin would
Speaker 3: like to invade the Baltics. You know, there there's a
Speaker 3: lot that that could happen. But right now, what's what's uh,
Speaker 3: you know that that that victory or victory for any
Speaker 3: side right now is a lot less clear. It's it's
Speaker 3: very much at the moment a war of attrition. The
Speaker 3: two sides really just duking it out on the battlefield,
Speaker 3: you know, each side trying to gain the upper hand.
Speaker 3: The Ukrainian really banking on Western support to to help
Speaker 3: them gain that upper hand, and hoping that this counter
Speaker 3: offensive is successful in resting back enough territory that perhaps
Speaker 3: in the months to come they could force the Russians
Speaker 3: to the negotiating table and have the momentum when they
Speaker 3: do so.
Speaker 2: Chris, it looks to us, I think, yes, fair to
Speaker 2: say like the Ukrainians have done very well as Wagner
Speaker 2: h falls out of the picture right as Progotion, you know,
Speaker 2: took his toys and marched up to Moscow. Uh, it
Speaker 2: looked like a very weak time for Putin and without
Speaker 2: the Wagner group, the Russian are seems bungling. Is that
Speaker 2: the right view of it?
Speaker 3: Yeah? More or less, you know, the Wagner mercenary group
Speaker 3: has been one of the only Russian units and an
Speaker 3: irregular one that has had offensive success on the battlefield. Here,
Speaker 3: you'll recall that the regular Russian Army hasn't really had
Speaker 3: a battlefield victory or the capture of a Ukrainian significant
Speaker 3: Ukrainian city in more than a year now, and Wagner
Speaker 3: was the group that led the Russian offensive in bak Mout,
Speaker 3: eventually capturing that city but completely destroying it and raising
Speaker 3: it to the ground in order to do so. With
Speaker 3: them off the battlefield, Yes, there is some concern that,
Speaker 3: at least on the Russian side right that they may
Speaker 3: struggle in future offensive action. That said, and they've had
Speaker 3: a long time to train up new troops. They are
Speaker 3: really well dug in in the south and the east
Speaker 3: of the country, and they're giving the Ukrainians in their
Speaker 3: counter offensive all kinds of trouble. So right now this
Speaker 3: really is Ukraine's moment foreign offensive. The Russians are playing defense,
Speaker 3: but because of Ukraine's so far lack of success. But
Speaker 3: there's still a lot of time and Ukraine has reserves
Speaker 3: to get success. Yeah, you know, right now Wagner has
Speaker 3: had a minor impact, but we'll see.
Speaker 1: Forgive me for jumping in because we're running out of time.
Speaker 1: Just got about thirty seconds. You're on the ground, you
Speaker 1: know this country, You've seen a lot, and like you said,
Speaker 1: it's not just the last year and a half where
Speaker 1: troubles were brewing. We've obviously it's been happening for a while.
Speaker 1: In terms of Ukraine, thirty seconds, what can you just
Speaker 1: quickly tell us about what maybe we're not we're missing
Speaker 1: from the headlines, or we need to keep kind of
Speaker 1: front and center really quickly.
Speaker 3: I think I think it's the just it's important to
Speaker 3: keep Ukraine in the headlines, to keep talking about Ukraine
Speaker 3: the support that Ukraine needs, you know, right now, the
Speaker 3: Ukrainian's big concerns is that attention will wane and that
Speaker 3: a lot of America will focus this attention on its
Speaker 3: elections and domestic issues, which of course are important. But
Speaker 3: the Ukrainians will tell you this is a fight for
Speaker 3: their freedom and independence, something that should resonate with Americans
Speaker 3: and that it's important for American support to continue.
Speaker 1: Well, so appreciate your time, and I know it's late there,
Speaker 1: but thank you again. Christopher Miller Financial Times corresponded his
Speaker 1: new book, The War Came to us life and death
Speaker 1: in Ukraine, joining us there from Kiev. This is Bloomberg