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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast named vest Vetting Podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go. We're throwing out job spectator.

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Speaker 2: We're setting it to cash touch time.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win.

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Speaker 2: God, that's incredible. Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 4: You want to pull.

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Speaker 3: And we are hooked away.

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Speaker 2: What up, everybody?

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Speaker 3: We are back that time of the year again.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the award winning Action Network podcast. I am

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Speaker 4: your host, Chris Raybond. I'm here with my guy Stucky,

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Speaker 4: and we are back to preview the NFL for the

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Speaker 4: upcoming twenty twenty season. In this episode, we're gonna talk

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Speaker 4: all about the AFC, which teams you should be betting on,

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Speaker 4: which teams you should be betting against. We're gonna have

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Speaker 4: our famous Sunday six pack segment, but instead of drafting

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Speaker 4: spreads and totals, we're gonna go with win totals. So

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Speaker 4: it should be a really good episode. Well, also get

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Speaker 4: to some really good mailbag questions that you guys submitted

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Speaker 4: on Twitter. So if you have questions for future episodes,

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Speaker 4: be sure to hit us up. You can find me

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Speaker 4: at Chris Raybon and Stucky at Stucky two.

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Speaker 3: And before we get into.

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Speaker 4: It, just a reminder to download the award winning Action

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Speaker 4: Network app for real time odds, box scores and the

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Speaker 4: capability to track every bet that you make.

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Speaker 3: It is a game changer, to be sure to check

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Speaker 3: it out.

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Speaker 4: And also want to let you guys know that in

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Speaker 4: the next couple of weeks we will be announcing some

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Speaker 4: exciting contests and promos for you and you'll get a

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Speaker 4: chance to win some sportsbook prizes, some Action Network merch

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Speaker 4: It'll be a really great opportunity, so stay tuned for that.

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Speaker 4: We have the NFC version of this episode out next week,

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Speaker 4: and every week all summer long this podcast feed we'll

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Speaker 4: have you covered with awesome episodes.

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Speaker 3: Peter Jennings and Jason.

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Speaker 4: Sobell cover Stucky's newfound betting love with the PGA Tour

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Speaker 4: every Tuesday, and Matthew Friedman, Sean Corner and I will

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Speaker 4: of course do our NFL Fantasy Flex episodes every week

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Speaker 4: leading up to Fantasy drafts. Already have a couple episodes

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Speaker 4: out where we break down some player props, so be

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Speaker 4: sure to check those out if you're interested specifically in

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Speaker 4: player props and fantasy and all that good stuff.

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Speaker 3: And of course, Stuck and Colin.

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Speaker 4: Wilson doing college football, Matt Moore doing NBA, it'll be great.

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Speaker 4: But Stuck, let's get right into it. First of all,

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Speaker 4: I want to start off by asking you something that

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Speaker 4: I know a lot of listeners out there are going

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Speaker 4: to wonder, what are the odds we actually get a

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Speaker 4: full sixteen game season, and how are the bets going

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Speaker 4: to be affected in the different scenarios.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's good to be back. For of all, I'm

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Speaker 2: excited to be talking to NFL. I repeat a couple

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Speaker 2: things I mentioned on our College Football State of the

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Speaker 2: Sport episode that came out today. While we're recording this

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Speaker 2: Number one, you know, we have Brett mcmurfield. He said,

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Speaker 2: there's about seventy percent chances there's no college football, and I,

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Speaker 2: you know, I'm much more pessimistic. There's Number one. There's

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Speaker 2: a lot more teams. These are college kids might not

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Speaker 2: have classes, and so college football is a different animal altogether.

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Speaker 2: You know, you also have all the liability and so

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Speaker 2: with the NFL it's you know, it's only you know,

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Speaker 2: a quarter of approximate a quarter of the teams. And

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Speaker 2: these are professional athletes, right, this is their job in

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Speaker 2: this The NFL is a machine, and I won't make

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Speaker 2: a joke here about the NFL not caring about player

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Speaker 2: of safety. But it's just a lot easier to manage

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Speaker 2: the NFL. So I'm very confident that the NFL starts

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Speaker 2: on time. I'm very confident that they get all the games,

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Speaker 2: and there's obviously going to be some disruption with you know,

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Speaker 2: players being out, it's not going to be a normal year,

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Speaker 2: but I am very confident. I don't know, I would

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Speaker 2: say eighty ninety percent of the NFL year starts on

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Speaker 2: time and is played to completion and in regards to

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Speaker 2: so that means, you know, with college football, I'm not

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Speaker 2: even looking at wind totals, and obviously the schedules are

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Speaker 2: changing even when they clack out with them. I don't

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Speaker 2: even know if I'll get involved, just because of all

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Speaker 2: the uncertainty and you're tying up your money for you know,

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Speaker 2: four or five months, well the NFL. Since it's so

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Speaker 2: much more confident in the NFL happening, I'm more willing

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Speaker 2: to invest in win totals and what bets would stand

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Speaker 2: and not. You know, obviously win totals would not if

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Speaker 2: you don't play a full sixteen. I will always check

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Speaker 2: with your book. But if there's a modified schedule, your

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Speaker 2: wind totals aren't going to stand. They would be refunded.

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Speaker 2: But your super Bowl futures, your conference futures is you know,

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Speaker 2: assuming that the Super Bowl conference still happens, all those

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Speaker 2: would still be action, you know, to win the division,

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Speaker 2: et cetera. I'm willing to invest money because of that

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Speaker 2: confidence level in some wind totals, you know, even though

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Speaker 2: I'm locking up my money because the other the other

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Speaker 2: side of the coin is if NFL doesn't happen, that

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Speaker 2: means college football is not happen. In college basketball's not happen,

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Speaker 2: and shit is bad, and that means like what to

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Speaker 2: my betting on that? Right, So I'm not as concerned

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Speaker 2: with tying up some money in a couple of NFL

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Speaker 2: win totals because if NFL doesn't happen, we're in trouble

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Speaker 2: in the fall.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, the way I'm looking at it is this is

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Speaker 4: the new normal. That's what I kind of think about

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Speaker 4: this pandemic at this point. It's unfortunate to say that,

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Speaker 4: but there's a lot of variants. But the bottom line

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Speaker 4: is this is the new normal, and businesses throughout the

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Speaker 4: world really have been forced to adjust on the fly

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Speaker 4: and figure out how to keep operating in these circumstances.

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Speaker 4: And I think, you know, as you mentioned, NFL is

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Speaker 4: a machine, it's there's a lot at stake, and so ultimately,

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Speaker 4: I do think that we will see football be played

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Speaker 4: in the fall. I'm less confident that they were, Like

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Speaker 4: I wouldn't say I'm eighty ninety percent confident that the

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Speaker 4: season starts on time, just because we have seen some

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Speaker 4: preseason cancelations. We don't know exactly when players will report

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Speaker 4: to camp and whatnot. But at the same time, we're seeing,

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Speaker 4: you know, they got the new face masks for, you know,

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Speaker 4: to kind of help with the trans limited transmission and whatnot.

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Speaker 4: So I think it's gonna happen, and I'm hoping it happens.

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Speaker 4: And if you're listening to this podcast, you too are

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Speaker 4: hoping it happens. So let's get right into our six pack.

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Speaker 4: We're gonna draft our top six favorite win total bets

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Speaker 4: for the AFC. This upcoming season.

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Speaker 1: Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: All right, here we go, stuck to New Year, another

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Speaker 4: year for you to come back and get your revenge.

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Speaker 4: I think I edged you out in our six pack

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Speaker 4: little friendly competition a year ago. So you're gonna have

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Speaker 4: the first pick here out of all the AFC win totals.

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Speaker 3: Who you got first?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was at sixty percent all year and I

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Speaker 2: could never pull away. You were just your a little pest.

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Speaker 2: You were like one game behind me the entire time,

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Speaker 2: and then you overtook me an impressive fashion in the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: And I think starting in like week sixteen, week seventeen,

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Speaker 2: it was a solid performance by both of us, but

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Speaker 2: especially by you pulling out the win. I still owe

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Speaker 2: you a dinner in New York whenever that next time

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Speaker 2: is going to be. I don't know when I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: be able to travel up to New York City. But AFC,

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Speaker 2: just based on my numbers, it's a pretty simple. I

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Speaker 2: shouldn't say simple, but just when you're when you're playing

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Speaker 2: out what it looks like. There's two elite teams, the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs and the Ravens. Two elite teams in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: I think they're head and shoulders. I would say head

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Speaker 2: and shoulders. They have a point or two above the

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Speaker 2: you know, the Saints, the forty nine ers, maybe a

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Speaker 2: field goal or so above the Cowboys. I actually have them.

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Speaker 2: And I think the Ravens have the best roster in

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Speaker 2: the NFL top to bottom, but the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 2: I actually have them. My power ratings like neck and neck.

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Speaker 2: So home field, which we'll get into the Ravens host

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs week three. I have them as you know,

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Speaker 2: one and a half to two point favorite. And then

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Speaker 2: you have you know, your bottom feeders, which are the

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Speaker 2: Bengals and the Jaguars. The next step down from that

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Speaker 2: is probably the Jets per my numbers. And then you

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Speaker 2: have like nine or ten teams that are all within

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Speaker 2: let me see, they're all within a field goal on

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Speaker 2: a neutral field. That's what makes it have the exciting.

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Speaker 2: And we're gonna have an expanded playoff this year, so

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Speaker 2: you're getting a seventh team in there. You're gonna have

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Speaker 2: you know, an eight and eight team, maybe a seven

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Speaker 2: to nine team make the playoffs. But figuring out you know,

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Speaker 2: that separation in the middle who's going to surprise, who's

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Speaker 2: going to underperform? I think is the most interesting part

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Speaker 2: of the AFC. But for my first win total, I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna start with it's one I don't like, you know

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Speaker 2: in that I wasn't expecting to bet this, and it's

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Speaker 2: the Bengals under. You can find five and a half

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Speaker 2: plus money, but I prefer it's under six minus one

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Speaker 2: twenty you can find out there and I make their

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Speaker 2: win total four point seven. So I see value at

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Speaker 2: there's like three or four win totals that I have

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Speaker 2: over a half of a win different in the AFC.

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Speaker 2: This is one of them. See value five and a

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Speaker 2: half under. I prefer the six for the push at

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Speaker 2: six wins. This is a team that went to and

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Speaker 2: fourteen last year, right, although some of the advanced measures

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Speaker 2: look at, they maybe should have won six games. Right,

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Speaker 2: they were a little unlucky. They were in a lot

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Speaker 2: of close games. And one of a profitable NFL strategy

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Speaker 2: for win totals historically is if you look at you

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Speaker 2: know the thagger and win therem and you see, okay,

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Speaker 2: who overperformed by you know two wins or more? Who

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Speaker 2: underperformed by two wins? Or more and play the under

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Speaker 2: or the over the next year. So the Bengals would

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Speaker 2: fit in that. But this is like an unprecedented year,

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Speaker 2: as we've talked about. I just think that teams that

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Speaker 2: have steady rosters, you know, constants at quarterback are going

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Speaker 2: to do a lot better this year than in the past.

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Speaker 2: You don't your a preseason cut down. We might not

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Speaker 2: have any preseason. You have you know, shortened interrupted preparation

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Speaker 2: during the summer. All that is going to impact the

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Speaker 2: Bengalsh have Joe Burrow coming into quarterback running a completely

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Speaker 2: This is a Sean mcday West Coast offense. I know

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Speaker 2: that they've made some signings. I like the DJ Readers signing.

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Speaker 2: I think their d line is pretty good, although Atkins

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Speaker 2: is getting up there in age. I still have questions

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Speaker 2: about their corners. William Jackson is starting to fall off

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Speaker 2: a cliff. They signed the Vikings corners ex Vikings corners

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Speaker 2: or wasn't a fan of I still hate their linebackers.

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Speaker 2: I hate their offensive line. I know they get Jonah

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Speaker 2: Williams back, but this is just a team that's just

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Speaker 2: going through so much change and they're in a division

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Speaker 2: where you have they're playing one of the best teams

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Speaker 2: in the NFL and the Ravens twice. They're playing which

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Speaker 2: should be a much improved Steelers team twice, right, I mean,

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Speaker 2: last year you're playing Steelers, you're playing some of the

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Speaker 2: worst quarterbacks in the NFL. You assume that Ben Roethlisberger

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Speaker 2: is healthy, the Steelers should be a lot better, and

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Speaker 2: I think the Browns are going to be a lot

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Speaker 2: better based just on the coaching changes alone. So the

218
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Speaker 2: division is tough. You could see three teams from the

219
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Speaker 2: NFC North get in. So this is purely a math play. Also,

220
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Speaker 2: it aligns with me wanting to kind of fade these

221
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Speaker 2: teams that are have drastic changes in this offseason in particular,

222
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Speaker 2: So I'm going Bengals under six minus one ten. I

223
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Speaker 2: make it as I said before, four zo point seven.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm with you in general, I think with win Toto,

225
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Speaker 4: something to keep in mind when you're kind of looking

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Speaker 4: at these things is the unders are going to be

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Speaker 4: the more profit side more often than not, a lot

228
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Speaker 4: of times when you add up all of the totals

229
00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:06,520
Speaker 4: at a particular book, they'll add up to more.

230
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Speaker 3: Than they should.

231
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Speaker 4: And that means that there's value on the unders, and

232
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Speaker 4: you said it. The Bengals are just in a ridiculously

233
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Speaker 4: tough division. I do like Joe Burrow.

234
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Speaker 3: I think he will have a.

235
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Speaker 4: Good fantasy season at least because they're gonna behind a lot.

236
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Speaker 4: They're gonna be thrown a lot, and he can right,

237
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Speaker 4: so I think he will be a positive He will

238
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Speaker 4: have a positive impact. But I don't know how many

239
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Speaker 4: games they could win, so I like that pick. For

240
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Speaker 4: my first pick, I'm going with what has been the

241
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Speaker 4: shores bet, the shore Is bet since he took over.

242
00:11:37,920 --> 00:11:41,920
Speaker 4: Since Andy Reid took over in twenty thirteen, the Chiefs

243
00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:45,040
Speaker 4: have not gone under their win total, not even once,

244
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Speaker 4: and so the one over.

245
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Speaker 3: I always look at.

246
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Speaker 4: Where I go against my rule of betting unders is

247
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Speaker 4: with the Kansas City Chiefs. In the two years since

248
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Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes became the starter, they have been twelve and

249
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Speaker 4: four both years, and that's even with Mahomes a little

250
00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:01,920
Speaker 4: banged up. Laslast year well, their win totals eleven and

251
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Speaker 4: a half, So I'm still taking the over.

252
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Speaker 3: I think they have just such a tremendous edge.

253
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Speaker 4: Over every other team because of Mahomes and Andy Reeves.

254
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Speaker 4: This is the new Brady Belichick. That duo is broken

255
00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:18,840
Speaker 4: up now Brady's in Tampa Bay. And so the predominant

256
00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:22,960
Speaker 4: coach quarterback edge in the NFL, where you just have

257
00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:26,640
Speaker 4: more talent and more savvy at those two spots, is

258
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Speaker 4: with the Kansas City Chiefs. And so this is a

259
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Speaker 4: team that in the postseason against the best that the

260
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Speaker 4: AFC had to offer, they get down each game and

261
00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:36,960
Speaker 4: make a huge comeback, like something like I think it

262
00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:39,640
Speaker 4: was twenty points in all three games they came back from.

263
00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:42,800
Speaker 4: This team could win under any circumstances. It's money in

264
00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:45,480
Speaker 4: the bank. It hasn't lost yet. Bet the Kansas City

265
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Speaker 4: Chiefs over and don't look back.

266
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Speaker 2: The one thing I like about the Chiefs this year

267
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Speaker 2: is they won the Super Bowl this year, and their

268
00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:55,920
Speaker 2: strength of schedule is not terrible. You know, obviously you're

269
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Speaker 2: gonna play a division winners, but per my numbers, it's

270
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Speaker 2: not a terrible And one of the things that I

271
00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:01,480
Speaker 2: love about them and I have in my model is

272
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Speaker 2: potential news starters. I think that's an important metric to

273
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Speaker 2: look at this year in particular. I mean, this team

274
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Speaker 2: is basically all back, right, and they added maybe a

275
00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:13,480
Speaker 2: starting running back, but you're bringing basically everyone back who

276
00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:17,040
Speaker 2: they lose Kendall Fuller Ago. I mean, like this whole

277
00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:18,840
Speaker 2: team is still intact from the Super Bowl win. You

278
00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:21,360
Speaker 2: obviously have Mahomes the only thing that I will say

279
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Speaker 2: about them, and they've won twelve games the last two years.

280
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Speaker 2: I think it's a safe bet that they'll probably do

281
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Speaker 2: so again. They'll probably be favored in every game this

282
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Speaker 2: year outside of at Baltimore. I haven't projected for pretty

283
00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:34,599
Speaker 2: much twelve on the dot. And last year, if you

284
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Speaker 2: look at what they did, they did it with Mahomes

285
00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:38,040
Speaker 2: being hurt. He's out a couple of games. Their O

286
00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:40,720
Speaker 2: line had some injuries, so and they still got the

287
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Speaker 2: twelve wins. They do take a big hit with home

288
00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:46,240
Speaker 2: field advantage if there's no fans, more so than any

289
00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:49,199
Speaker 2: other than other teams, or I should say a lot

290
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Speaker 2: of other teams. But I will say the one thing

291
00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:53,559
Speaker 2: that is a little concerning to me, and I have

292
00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:55,760
Speaker 2: them neck and neck with the Ravens in my power ratings.

293
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Speaker 2: I might I will drop them a tiny bit if

294
00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:02,400
Speaker 2: Chris Jones doesn't Cup doesn't get signed. He's so important

295
00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:05,679
Speaker 2: to that defense, especially interior pass rush. Their D line

296
00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:09,800
Speaker 2: is still yeah, especially against the run, you know, and

297
00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:13,360
Speaker 2: their linebackers still leaves something to be desired. So you know,

298
00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:16,319
Speaker 2: Chris Jones if he comes back, I mean this team again,

299
00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:18,319
Speaker 2: it's fully healthy, and I mean he's been a top

300
00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:20,840
Speaker 2: five defensive tackle since coming to the league at twenty sixteen,

301
00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:24,000
Speaker 2: so not having him would definitely hurt the defense. There

302
00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:26,240
Speaker 2: still would be the cream of the crop. And I

303
00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:27,640
Speaker 2: can't argue with you.

304
00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:30,440
Speaker 3: All right, let's keep going where you going with your

305
00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:30,960
Speaker 3: second pick.

306
00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:33,480
Speaker 2: This is gonna be correlated with the last pick, and

307
00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:36,080
Speaker 2: this is by one of the few overs I like,

308
00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:38,160
Speaker 2: like you with you with the Chiefs. I'm going with

309
00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:41,960
Speaker 2: the Ravens over eleven and a half. I project twelve

310
00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:44,880
Speaker 2: point two. Yeah, they'll be favorite in every game this year,

311
00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:47,760
Speaker 2: assuming no injuries. Look, you can't just take that and say,

312
00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:50,000
Speaker 2: all right, then I'm gonna bet they're over, right, because

313
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Speaker 2: you know, some people say this seems favorite in nine games,

314
00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:54,960
Speaker 2: so I'm gonna take their over seven. It doesn't really

315
00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:56,880
Speaker 2: work like that. If six of the games are favored

316
00:14:56,880 --> 00:14:58,520
Speaker 2: by one or two points, you have to That's why

317
00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:00,680
Speaker 2: you have to look at the win probability, you know,

318
00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:02,880
Speaker 2: and then add up all those to get your win total.

319
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Speaker 2: But I have them at twelve point two, so I'm

320
00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:09,800
Speaker 2: about zero point seven over. They get the Chiefs at home,

321
00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:12,080
Speaker 2: which is huge in week three. But here's the most

322
00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:14,400
Speaker 2: important thing, obviously the most talented roster, that they improve

323
00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:17,800
Speaker 2: their defense significantly. Two of the best cover corners. That

324
00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:19,760
Speaker 2: allows them the blitz. Now their linebackers are going to

325
00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:22,520
Speaker 2: be a lot faster, a lot better. Great coaching staff

326
00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:24,280
Speaker 2: like the Chiefs. Again, I like that in a year

327
00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:27,800
Speaker 2: like this, the preparation, the depth of the team, all

328
00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:30,440
Speaker 2: these things I love. I love the additions of Queen

329
00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:33,240
Speaker 2: and Harrison. And here's the thing that I think really

330
00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:36,080
Speaker 2: sticks out this year. Travel could be difficult, right, there's

331
00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:38,640
Speaker 2: travel restrictions, you got to worry about testing and just

332
00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:42,280
Speaker 2: just increased risk and there's more headaches. The Ravens schedule

333
00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:46,920
Speaker 2: is unbelievable when it comes to travel. I mean, look

334
00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:50,040
Speaker 2: at this is where they play. Their road games are

335
00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:56,920
Speaker 2: at Washington, at Philadelphia, you know, at Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Indianapolis.

336
00:15:57,200 --> 00:15:59,720
Speaker 2: The furthest they go is to Houston. Otherwise they're just

337
00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:03,040
Speaker 2: hanging it out on ninety five, just driving everywhere. I mean,

338
00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:05,760
Speaker 2: there's absolutely no trouble it's the fewest amount of miles

339
00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:08,880
Speaker 2: traveled in the NFL in four or five seasons. When

340
00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:11,080
Speaker 2: that since the Steelers went to the AFC Championship game.

341
00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:14,000
Speaker 2: So I know that the division has improved a little. Bet,

342
00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:16,720
Speaker 2: But with my number, with this travel, with the coaching

343
00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:19,920
Speaker 2: staff and the improvements on defense, I have to go

344
00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:21,400
Speaker 2: over eleven and a half, I think they at least

345
00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:22,200
Speaker 2: get the twelve woins.

346
00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:25,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, Baltimore is way too talented not to be a

347
00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:26,680
Speaker 4: twelve win team.

348
00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:29,640
Speaker 3: I would think. I do like the Chiefs better.

349
00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:32,160
Speaker 4: But you know, if there's another over, I'm gonna bet

350
00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:36,000
Speaker 4: it's probably the Ravens in the AFC anyway, just because

351
00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:38,920
Speaker 4: the talent is so far ahead. And you know, even

352
00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:40,960
Speaker 4: if let's say Lamar Jackson had to miss a game

353
00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:43,480
Speaker 4: or two, at least you have a quarterback that can

354
00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:46,080
Speaker 4: kind of simuate that, you know, very poor man's Lamar

355
00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:49,360
Speaker 4: and Robert Griffin. So his team seems to not miss

356
00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:51,720
Speaker 4: a beat. And uh, yeah, I think the Ravens are

357
00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:53,520
Speaker 4: gonna be again one of the best teams in the league.

358
00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:55,920
Speaker 4: And don't be surprised if Lamar Jackson takes another step

359
00:16:55,960 --> 00:17:00,000
Speaker 4: forward throwing the football. Greg Roman he's done it wherever

360
00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:03,160
Speaker 4: he's gone, Tyrod Taylor, Colin Kaepernick, all these guys have

361
00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:07,679
Speaker 4: shown massive growth as passers. And so we saw Lamar

362
00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:09,880
Speaker 4: go from a guy who they were scared to let

363
00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:11,320
Speaker 4: throw to a guy who had the wee can touchdown

364
00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:14,000
Speaker 4: passes last year. So, just like with Mahomes in case,

365
00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:16,879
Speaker 4: we might not have seen the best of Lamar Jackson

366
00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:18,680
Speaker 4: yet and that's scary for the rest of the league.

367
00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:21,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, And the other thing I'll say with the defense,

368
00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:24,119
Speaker 2: and I mentioned this last year, when Jimmy Smith came

369
00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:26,840
Speaker 2: back from injury, you had, you know, Marlon Humphrey and

370
00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,680
Speaker 2: Marcus Peters, who are elite cover corners on the outside.

371
00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:32,359
Speaker 2: But Jimmy Smith can't play in the slot, right, He's

372
00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:34,800
Speaker 2: just too tall, lank, he's older. So they were having

373
00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:37,320
Speaker 2: to play Humphrey in the slot and it just was

374
00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:40,560
Speaker 2: an ideal. Well, now you have two of the top

375
00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:43,440
Speaker 2: five top ten cover corners in the NFL in Humphrey

376
00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:45,800
Speaker 2: and Peters, you play them on the outside. You know

377
00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:48,639
Speaker 2: you're getting back now is Tayvon Young was the highest

378
00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:51,320
Speaker 2: paid slot corner last year, a great just Swiss army

379
00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:54,680
Speaker 2: piece in Martindale's defense, but he can play on the slot.

380
00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:57,920
Speaker 2: It allows Humphrey and Peters to play on the outside lockdown.

381
00:17:57,920 --> 00:17:59,600
Speaker 2: They're going to come with just a ton of pressure,

382
00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:01,480
Speaker 2: as they all always do, so I love that for

383
00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:03,399
Speaker 2: the defense. And again I can't mention the Ravens with

384
00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:06,560
Speaker 2: They're gonna have eleade special teams again. So yeah, Raven's over.

385
00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,679
Speaker 3: I'll take any motherfucker's money if he geting it away.

386
00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:13,200
Speaker 2: Where are you going next?

387
00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:16,560
Speaker 4: I am going with a team that I'll be betting

388
00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:17,679
Speaker 4: against during the season.

389
00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:19,080
Speaker 3: You know it. I know it.

390
00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,400
Speaker 4: Everyone who's listening knows it. The Denver Broncos. I am

391
00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:24,280
Speaker 4: going under their win total.

392
00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:25,360
Speaker 3: Yeah shocking.

393
00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:27,919
Speaker 4: I know it's seven and a half at most books,

394
00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:31,439
Speaker 4: and to me, that's an easy under. First of all, again,

395
00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:34,960
Speaker 4: just in general, when you're betting win totals, when you're

396
00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:37,960
Speaker 4: looking at the expectations of these teams, remember if you

397
00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:41,840
Speaker 4: consume NFL content at this time of year, before we

398
00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:44,919
Speaker 4: get to September, it's puff p season.

399
00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:46,280
Speaker 3: It's when everyone's talking.

400
00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:48,280
Speaker 4: Up pretty much every team, and there's gonna be a

401
00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:50,720
Speaker 4: lot of these teams that fall short of expectations. The

402
00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:56,760
Speaker 4: Denver Broncos have higher expectations after drafting some competent receiving weapons,

403
00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:59,920
Speaker 4: but if you look at their team, Drew Locket quarterback,

404
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:02,359
Speaker 4: highly unproven, a guy who averaged just six and a

405
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:06,240
Speaker 4: half yards per attempt last year, played five games. They

406
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:09,280
Speaker 4: you know, they were pretty successful, but they average only

407
00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:12,080
Speaker 4: about twenty twenty one points a game. It wasn't really

408
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:14,639
Speaker 4: anything to do with the offense. And this is one

409
00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:17,040
Speaker 4: of those teams that does lack that continuity that you

410
00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:20,080
Speaker 4: talked about Stuck. They're bringing in a new offensive coordinator

411
00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:22,760
Speaker 4: and Sherman coming over from the Giants. They're bringing in

412
00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:25,640
Speaker 4: a quarterback who's only started five games he's working with,

413
00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:29,520
Speaker 4: a new running back, a couple of rookie receivers, a

414
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:33,800
Speaker 4: second year tight end. And then on defense, your longtime

415
00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:36,680
Speaker 4: stud corner Chris Harris is gone. You bring in aj Bouye,

416
00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:40,240
Speaker 4: who really struggled last season and may just not me

417
00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:43,359
Speaker 4: as good as he used to be. And so this team,

418
00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:47,000
Speaker 4: they have some talent at certain spots, you know, obviously

419
00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:50,560
Speaker 4: Bradley Chubb, Von Miller, those guys, but overall, I think

420
00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:52,440
Speaker 4: this team is going to take some time to fully

421
00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:55,200
Speaker 4: reach its peak, and I don't think it's going to

422
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:56,960
Speaker 4: be this season. So seven and a half wins in

423
00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:58,960
Speaker 4: a division with the Chiefs, in a division where the

424
00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:02,440
Speaker 4: Raiders have improved, in a division where the Chargers vastly

425
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:06,199
Speaker 4: underperformed last year, still have a really good defense, and

426
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:10,160
Speaker 4: between Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert Nace have a better

427
00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:14,359
Speaker 4: quarterback situation than the Broncos. So you have just a

428
00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:16,639
Speaker 4: lot of competition within that envision. I don't think the

429
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,840
Speaker 4: Broncos are going to go eight and eight this year.

430
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:20,880
Speaker 4: To me, that's an easy easy under.

431
00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:25,399
Speaker 2: The Broncos are interesting for a couple of reasons. I

432
00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:28,240
Speaker 2: mean one, it's just the there's a lot of upside

433
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 2: and downside. There's just high airs on this offense. Right

434
00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:33,440
Speaker 2: you're probably gonna be starting, but I assume you're starting

435
00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 2: Judy and Hamler to go along with Sutton, So on

436
00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:38,320
Speaker 2: the surface, he probably has more help than he did

437
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,359
Speaker 2: last year. And if you know the Shermer, he is

438
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,879
Speaker 2: still like a it's a shotgu on offense. It's a

439
00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,280
Speaker 2: lot of quick passes. They stretch you horizontally, then they'll

440
00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:47,920
Speaker 2: take their shots. Tries to create out of one on one,

441
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:51,199
Speaker 2: which I think Judy could potentially thrive in. And he

442
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:53,560
Speaker 2: loves the tight end. So no offense could really thrive

443
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:56,359
Speaker 2: in this offense. Is the offensive line better? Maybe that's

444
00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:58,800
Speaker 2: a big question mark holding that holding, but.

445
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 4: I think number seventy one holding number whatever number he is.

446
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:05,119
Speaker 2: Every other player, every other play. I mean, it's a

447
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,000
Speaker 2: lot of it's gonna depend there's a lot you're relying

448
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 2: on a lot of rookie pieces. I mean you're probably

449
00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,439
Speaker 2: gonna have what cushion Barry from LSU come in and

450
00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:14,160
Speaker 2: start at center. You know there is a new OC.

451
00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,360
Speaker 2: There is no quarterback death. If lock strugglers, it gets hurt.

452
00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 2: Who's I think it is Jeff Driscolls their backup, which

453
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:21,760
Speaker 2: is something to keep in mind. But the defense I

454
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:25,159
Speaker 2: think could be really good. I mean it was it

455
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:28,199
Speaker 2: was something that I and Fangio is coming back again.

456
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 2: You know it's his it's progression in his defense over time,

457
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 2: which you expect to get better. You know, he wants

458
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:36,760
Speaker 2: to simulate pressure. He doesn't want to give up big plays,

459
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:38,600
Speaker 2: and I think he has a defense that when healthy

460
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:42,440
Speaker 2: can thrive here he's getting chubbed back. It's the upside

461
00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:45,320
Speaker 2: is there. My numbers say like seven point nine wins.

462
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 2: I think you can find too high you're too high.

463
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,800
Speaker 2: But I would say if you if you like the Broncos,

464
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:53,160
Speaker 2: I would and you like the Broncos, I would rather

465
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:55,680
Speaker 2: go for like a fifty to one super Bowl future

466
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,480
Speaker 2: that an over wins, because if everything comes together right

467
00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:01,199
Speaker 2: and Drew Locke does take that next step forward and

468
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:03,960
Speaker 2: these offensive pieces with you know, Gordon in the backfield

469
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 2: to go with Lindsey, you know, and Fant and a

470
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:08,680
Speaker 2: Shermer offense takes off, and then you have Judy and

471
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 2: Hamler who end up being productive rookies to go along

472
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 2: with Sutton, and all the defensive talent is there, you know,

473
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:17,639
Speaker 2: even starting in the inside with the addition of Casey.

474
00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:20,320
Speaker 2: It's a team that has a high ceiling. But a

475
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 2: lot has to go right with an additional team in

476
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,919
Speaker 2: the AFC playoffs, you know, they're they're still gonna have

477
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:27,920
Speaker 2: a home field advantage even with no offense, they still

478
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,399
Speaker 2: have the altitude. Maybe you take a shot at fifty

479
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 2: to one if you like the Broncos, but I could

480
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:35,600
Speaker 2: see your points. There's a lot that has to go right.

481
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:39,360
Speaker 2: And in a season where shortened preseason shortened prep new

482
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 2: oc you know quarterback, you know new basically a new

483
00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 2: quarter new starting quarterbacks going to come in and start

484
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 2: for the first time for a full season. So I

485
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 2: like some of what they're doing, but a lot has

486
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 2: to go right, especially in a year like this. I

487
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:51,880
Speaker 2: can't argue with you.

488
00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:53,679
Speaker 4: Too many ifs equals six and ten, those are the

489
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 4: teams that go six and ten. Like we can make

490
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:57,919
Speaker 4: a good case of a case for every team to

491
00:22:57,960 --> 00:22:59,920
Speaker 4: go over their win total, and I think that again,

492
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,400
Speaker 4: that's what you see the majority of the content. I'm

493
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:04,159
Speaker 4: sure you know we've even been guilty of this. But

494
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:05,679
Speaker 4: when you want to write up something, a lot of

495
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 4: times it's what do you what should you bet?

496
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 3: Why this team is underrated? Undervalued?

497
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:13,680
Speaker 4: But we never, I think, give equal kind of presidents

498
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 4: to the to the downside.

499
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:15,160
Speaker 3: We don't give.

500
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 4: We don't talk about what could go wrong. And I'm

501
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 4: just there's too many iss with this team. They could

502
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:22,400
Speaker 4: go seven to nine and cash your bet. I think

503
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 4: that's probably the most likely outcome.

504
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 2: Yeah a j boy Aban, I don't know how he's

505
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 2: gonna work out. The corner depth still does worry me

506
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:32,719
Speaker 2: as well. You know that that could hold them back ultimately,

507
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:35,960
Speaker 2: So yeah, right, I can't argue with you. For my

508
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,360
Speaker 2: last pick the two teams with the biggest differential between

509
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:42,040
Speaker 2: my wind total projections and the wind total. There's two

510
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 2: of them left. I already said the Ravens and the Bengals,

511
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 2: and obviously there's semi correlated because they're in the same division.

512
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 2: But there was the Jets and the Patriots unders. And

513
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:55,399
Speaker 2: I'm a little higher on the Bills in the market.

514
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 2: But I mean, Josh Allen, I still have questions about

515
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:00,400
Speaker 2: but that's part of it. But they're there's a lot

516
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:03,639
Speaker 2: I don't like about the Patriots and the Jets. But

517
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 2: the I mean there's just is Cam Newton healthy. Is

518
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:08,880
Speaker 2: he gonna be able to step in into this new offense,

519
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:12,200
Speaker 2: you know, with new pieces. But when I keep coming

520
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:14,400
Speaker 2: back to, I project the Patriots, but their win total

521
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,160
Speaker 2: is nine now I'm at like eight two, eight three.

522
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:18,960
Speaker 2: But there has to be a bump that you just

523
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 2: give Belichick right like he's gonna It's just the Patriots

524
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:26,640
Speaker 2: organization and they're they're basically rebuilding their defense. And it's

525
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 2: interesting what the Patriots are doing. They're always ahead of

526
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 2: the curve. They were running the ball when they went

527
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 2: to the Super Bowl and when everyone was focused on

528
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:35,719
Speaker 2: passing and They basically said, look, corners and secondaries, all

529
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 2: the matters on defense. But they're rebuilding basically their entire

530
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 2: front seven or I guess it's front six. Now we're

531
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 2: gonna play with five dbacks at all times pretty much,

532
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:47,880
Speaker 2: which is which is a question their their defensive front

533
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 2: and their offense. There's still questions there. But I got

534
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 2: to give the Patriots just the benefit of the doubt.

535
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 2: He's gonna find a way to get to nine wins.

536
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 2: So choosing between the Jets and the Patriots, who I

537
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:00,399
Speaker 2: basically have the same amount of different wrench on the

538
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 2: winter totals, I went with the Jets. Look we can.

539
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:04,440
Speaker 2: I think we have a shout out to one of

540
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 2: the reasons that I want to do this, and that's

541
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 2: for their head coach, Adam Gase. I'm not a fan

542
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:13,760
Speaker 2: of Adam Gase. I'm just not. And this team is screaming,

543
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 2: screaming dysfunction right now, and that is the worst thing

544
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 2: that you want going into this year. In particular, I mean,

545
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 2: what's gonna happen with Jamal Adams And there's just so

546
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:24,160
Speaker 2: much drama around the team, and that is not what

547
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 2: you want. In this unprecedented NFL preparation summer. I know

548
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 2: that they tried to address the old line. I'm not

549
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 2: wowed by any of the moves that they did. I'm

550
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 2: also still not wowed by their receivers and Kenna Noon

551
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,880
Speaker 2: will stay healthy. I don't know. I'm not buying this team.

552
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:42,360
Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of dysfunction. And look, they

553
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:45,199
Speaker 2: finished six and two last last year. To get to

554
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:49,119
Speaker 2: seven and nine a complete and utter fluke. I mean

555
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:52,639
Speaker 2: they beat hot Duck Hodges. They beat the Bills backups,

556
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 2: I mean they were playing wide receivers at cornerback. They

557
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,159
Speaker 2: beat the Dolphins on a fluke. They beat the Giants

558
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,440
Speaker 2: and the Skins, I mean a lot. They just smoking

559
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 2: mirror's close wins to get to seven to nine down

560
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 2: the Shutch, I'm not buying it. I also have them

561
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 2: with second hardest schedule in the AFC, only behind the Raiders.

562
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:14,919
Speaker 2: Not only does their schedule difficult just from a numbers perspective,

563
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,680
Speaker 2: two of their first three games are on the road,

564
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 2: and they're playing, you know, at the Bills, home against

565
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 2: the Niners, at the Colts, then home against the Broncos.

566
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 2: I mean, if this team with all of this dysfunction

567
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 2: and turmoil starts oh to three, which is likely. I mean,

568
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 2: I only have a favorite of the two games all year,

569
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 2: and they have a lot of coin flips, but only

570
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 2: a favorite straight out of two games. But they start

571
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 2: oh and three, I mean it could get ugly and

572
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 2: Gays is gone. So not only the two of the

573
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 2: first three on the road, three of their final four

574
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 2: on the road, including back to back trips out West.

575
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 2: They go to Seattle December thirteenth, and then to LA

576
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 2: to play the Rams the week after that. I mean,

577
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:57,679
Speaker 2: that's brutal. So I don't like their schedule. It's difficult,

578
00:26:57,760 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 2: and I think schedule is going to be an important

579
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 2: part of this season more so than past seasons. You know,

580
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:05,680
Speaker 2: they've released both are twenty nineteen starting quarterbacks. I don't

581
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 2: think the Seers a good fit scheme wise. I just

582
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 2: have a ton of questions about this roster, the staff,

583
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 2: the turmoil, throwing the schedule, and then most importantly throwing

584
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:19,439
Speaker 2: my projection. I'm going Jets under six and a half.

585
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 4: So mad that you picked that, that you picked the

586
00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 4: Jets under because I wanted the Jets.

587
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 3: Under so bad. The Jets under that easy money.

588
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 4: First of all, one of the best things the best

589
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:34,680
Speaker 4: predictors of team success. One of the most heavily weighted

590
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 4: things in power ratings and all these different things that

591
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:40,480
Speaker 4: we use to come up with these win totals and

592
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 4: projections and whatnot is quarterback play, quarterback efficiency. And Sam

593
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:46,919
Speaker 4: Darnold has not been good, and that's not a good sign.

594
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:51,440
Speaker 4: Most quarterbacks in this league that are good were good

595
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 4: from the start. I mean, think about the teams that

596
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:56,440
Speaker 4: even if maybe you have them, you're kind of leaning

597
00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 4: one way or another, you give them the benefit of

598
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:01,360
Speaker 4: the doubt because of their quarterback. Russell Wilson the Seahawks,

599
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 4: he was good immediately. Mahomes was good immediately. You know,

600
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,119
Speaker 4: Andrew Luck was good immediately when he was with the

601
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:10,680
Speaker 4: Colt Like these quarterback young quarterbacks should be good when

602
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 4: they're not, when they're just merely you know, competent enough

603
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 4: to retain the starting job because a team invested a

604
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 4: high draft pick on them, that's the best time to

605
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 4: bet against them. Those are That's why you know, Drew

606
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 4: Rock what has he done nothing? Sam Donald, what has

607
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 4: he done nothing? Maybe you say, okay, he can be

608
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:32,640
Speaker 4: a competent starter, But there are a lot of good

609
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 4: starting quarterbacks in this league. Sam Donald is not one

610
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:37,159
Speaker 4: of them, and so it's gonna be hard for the

611
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 4: Jets to win even seven games. They're going against the

612
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 4: Bills really good defense twice a year. You're going against

613
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 4: the Patriots, regardless of who's the starting quarterback, excellent defense

614
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:49,520
Speaker 4: twice a year, and the Dolphins should be improved. That's

615
00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 4: not a gimme to win. To win games against the Dolphins.

616
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 4: So the Jets, to me, are the worst team in

617
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 4: that division. They're one of the worst teams in the league.

618
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 4: And it's because Sam Donald, and whether it's because of

619
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 4: the lack of weapons or just because Sam Darnold is

620
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 4: not very good and hasn't quite lived up to expectations.

621
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 4: Anyway you look at it, it's it's not a good

622
00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 4: situation in New York.

623
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 3: And I totally agree with you.

624
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 4: They were extremely lucky to finish with that with that

625
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 4: record of seven or nine. I mean we did I'm

626
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 4: pretty sure we did bet on them a couple of times,

627
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 4: so it worked out for us. But I don't think

628
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 4: that that's a irrepeatable thing. So I love that pick,

629
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 4: and I'm really upset actually that you that you still.

630
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 2: With People will say, well, look, look at their defense

631
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 2: last year, and I get that you're probably gonna have

632
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 2: Mosley and Williamson back. They finished what I think seventh

633
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 2: overall on defense despite all their injuries. But the schedule,

634
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:38,480
Speaker 2: their past defense schedule was a joke. I mean, the

635
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 2: quarterbacks that they faced an absolute joke. I'm not buying,

636
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 2: you know, a corner of their cornerback group. And then

637
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 2: on the other side, offensive line, it's all new. It's

638
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 2: basically completely new starters or moved around in all new positions.

639
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 2: That's not great in a year like this, and three

640
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 2: West Coast trips. Like I said before, So I'm with

641
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 2: you on fading Gays.

642
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, and we'll have a special edition of Coaches Pep

643
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 4: Talk dedicated to Adam Gase in just a moment. But

644
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 4: let's wrap it up with my final pick. And for

645
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 4: this one, I'm not sure this is going to be

646
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 4: too popular, but I'm going Indianapolis Colts under nine wins.

647
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 4: And the reasoning for that is because when I look

648
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 4: at the market, and a lot of times the way

649
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 4: when you're betting, it's not just about evaluating the team.

650
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 4: It's about evaluating the market and how the market's kind

651
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 4: of valuing the team. That's why we tend to see

652
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 4: a lot of value on unders and a lot of

653
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:33,479
Speaker 4: value on underdogs during the season. Because the betting market

654
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 4: tends to bet overs. They tend to get you buy

655
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 4: into the hype with certain teams, and the Colts, to me,

656
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 4: are a hype team. And if you look at the

657
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 4: other teams in the division, Houston Texans their win total

658
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 4: seven and a half, even though they've won nine or

659
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 4: more games every year with Bill O'Brien except one the

660
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:54,360
Speaker 4: year when Deshaun Watson went down and the defense everyone

661
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 4: got injured. So I think the Texans are being undervalued

662
00:30:57,680 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 4: a little bit.

663
00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 3: People are overrating the DeAndre Hopkins the loss of Hopkins.

664
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 4: I think the Tennessee Titans, they've won nine games in

665
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 4: three straight years and their win totals eight and a half,

666
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 4: I think they're being undervalued a little bit.

667
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 3: And then you look at the Jacksonville Jaguars.

668
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 4: They're projected by the Vegas sportsbooks to be the worst

669
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 4: team in the league, their win totals four and a half,

670
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 4: and so all these things have kind of conspired to

671
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 4: give the Colts, I think, an easy projected schedule. But

672
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 4: in my opinion, the Colts are an average team, and

673
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 4: you look up and down the AFC, and the Colts

674
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 4: to me are not right there with like the Steelers,

675
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 4: for example, who also have a win total of nine.

676
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 4: They are They're not tangibly better than a team like

677
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 4: the Cleveland Browns, especially with the Browns getting what I

678
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 4: think is a better coaching staff in place. So I

679
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 4: don't see how the market is valuing the Colts so

680
00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 4: highly with and all these other teams solowly within a division.

681
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 4: But I think that's what's creating value on us under

682
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 4: So love the under nine for Indianapolis.

683
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:00,520
Speaker 3: This is an eight and eight team that in some years,

684
00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:01,280
Speaker 3: yeah they'll go.

685
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 4: Ten and six, eleven and five maybe, but most of

686
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 4: the time, I think this is a team that's going

687
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 4: to be in that six to eight win range. And

688
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:12,479
Speaker 4: Philip Rivers, that's another reason I think people are buying

689
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 4: in to the hype with the coach a little bit.

690
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 4: And I got a lot of respect for Frank Reich.

691
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 4: First of all, you know the head coach. I think

692
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 4: he's a very good coach. But Philip Rivers, I think

693
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 4: is being overrated. I think he adds about a couple

694
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 4: points to the spread over Brissett. But at the end

695
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:27,720
Speaker 4: of the day, you look at Philip Rivers. Three of

696
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:31,400
Speaker 4: the last five years he hasn't won more than five games.

697
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 4: His team hasn't won more than five games. So Philip Rivers, Yes,

698
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 4: he had a twelve and four season in twenty eighteen,

699
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 4: nine and seven, and twenty seventeen, but four and twelve

700
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 4: and twenty fifteen, five and eleven, and twenty sixteen and

701
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 4: five and eleven last year, Philip Rivers isn't necessarily going

702
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 4: to change the team. You know, this is still kind

703
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 4: of a middling team. Rivers has been near the top

704
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 4: of the league in interceptions for pretty much the last decade.

705
00:32:56,720 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 4: Now twenty last year he is going on thirty He's

706
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 4: you know, thirty.

707
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 3: Nine this year.

708
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 4: I just don't see it how the Colts have such

709
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 4: a huge edge on the other teams in this division.

710
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 4: I think the Titans are probably the best team in

711
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,320
Speaker 4: the division. I think the Textas are being severely underrated

712
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 4: as well.

713
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:15,440
Speaker 2: I can't get to the over on the Colts. I

714
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 2: actually project them. They're runners nine to nine point one.

715
00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 2: A lot of that has to do with their schedule

716
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 2: and people that look at last year's records I mean

717
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 2: you can't do that. I mean, because there's a lot

718
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 2: of luck and injuries. You have saying like, all right,

719
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 2: based on last year's record, I mean this is based

720
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 2: on my projections this year. I have them as the

721
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 2: easiest schedule by far in the AFC. It helps to

722
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 2: play the Jaguars twice, you know, it also helps to

723
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 2: play you know, at the Lions, at the Raiders, non

724
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 2: division road games. You know you're playing at the Bears.

725
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 2: You're playing the Jets at home, the Bengals at home.

726
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 2: You know, the Packers at home. These aren't the Vikings

727
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 2: at home. Their schedule is very, very favorable. There's a

728
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:58,520
Speaker 2: lot of things I do like about this team. I

729
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 2: love the staff, I love the offensive line. You Rivers

730
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:03,760
Speaker 2: is probably going from a bottom three offensive line the

731
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 2: NFL to a top three offensive line. How good is

732
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 2: Rivers still? That is the question? Was it a lot

733
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:12,920
Speaker 2: on the offensive line? His arm is obviously not there anymore.

734
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 2: But this is a run heavy offense, So I mean,

735
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:19,280
Speaker 2: if Rivers has something to give, I think the offense

736
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 2: has potential. As long as you know Hilton can stay

737
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:22,919
Speaker 2: on the field and help stretch the field, that's huge

738
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:25,280
Speaker 2: for their offense, but they're obviously going to be successful

739
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 2: running the ball and the defensive side of the ball.

740
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:29,319
Speaker 2: You know, you get Darius Leonard back. I think they

741
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:32,320
Speaker 2: have a solid lineback and corps. I think the addition

742
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:34,759
Speaker 2: of Buckner in the middle is really going to help.

743
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 2: I do hate the road signing. I mean, you heard

744
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 2: me last year I said, he's watched this is his

745
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 2: z oone heavy defense. So maybe he can be a

746
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:44,880
Speaker 2: little more productive solid safety duo, but just not I

747
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 2: mean not a huge fan of their corners, which is

748
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:49,200
Speaker 2: obviously huge in the NFL. So a lot of it's

749
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 2: gonna come down to what does Rivers have left their

750
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:54,000
Speaker 2: twenty picks last year and how much will we benefit

751
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 2: from a really good running game and a really good

752
00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 2: offensive line. The other thing that I'll mention is they

753
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 2: were five and six in one possession games last year.

754
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:03,319
Speaker 2: They really should have been like eight and three. I

755
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:05,319
Speaker 2: mean how many games the Vinitary cost them. I mean

756
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:08,400
Speaker 2: Vinitary alone subtracting him off of the team. If you

757
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:10,439
Speaker 2: put you in there as the kicker, they win two

758
00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 2: more games. So you're probably gonna have Chase McLaughlin or

759
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 2: Blanket Ship out of Georgia be their kicker. Getting rid

760
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:18,640
Speaker 2: of Vertitary was the best move that they did all

761
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 2: off season. Stuff grid the kicker. Their kicker could be

762
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 2: me kicking left foot of me, better than what Vinitary

763
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 2: did for them last year. He had I don't know,

764
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:28,320
Speaker 2: the highest negative values last year, and he's a kicker,

765
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 2: but it was amazing some of the games that he

766
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:33,560
Speaker 2: lost for them. The Steelers gave him Chicko sticks out.

767
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 2: So I have a nine point one. I can't get there,

768
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:39,560
Speaker 2: mainly just because of the schedule, but if you doubt Rivers,

769
00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:42,280
Speaker 2: it's probably going under. And this would be a tough division.

770
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:43,719
Speaker 2: Go back to what you said at the top of

771
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 2: the show. There are two week teams in the AFC.

772
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 2: That's the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens. And

773
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 2: you said it, there's all these teams that are kind

774
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 2: of in the middle. To me, the way as a.

775
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:57,359
Speaker 4: Better that you make money is betting against the hype

776
00:35:57,440 --> 00:35:59,480
Speaker 4: of those teams in the middle. You know, those teams

777
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:01,360
Speaker 4: in the middle are the Broncos. Those teams in the

778
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:04,320
Speaker 4: middle are the Colts. I'm saying there's a scenario maybe

779
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:06,799
Speaker 4: you know thirty forty percent of the time where the

780
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 4: Colts have a really good year, and there's this, But

781
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 4: I just think if you look at what are they

782
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 4: more likely to do, are they more likely to go

783
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 4: ten and six or eight and eight to me? That's

784
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:17,239
Speaker 4: eight and eight to me. The Coats can lose the

785
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:19,279
Speaker 4: game to the Jaguars. They can lose a game to

786
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:21,400
Speaker 4: any of those teams you mentioned, Like, this is not

787
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 4: a team that you're you're looking at and saying they're

788
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 4: guaranteed to go in and beat you at I just

789
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 4: don't think that the Colts are in the same class

790
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 4: as the Steelers.

791
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 3: I don't think they're near the top of the AFC.

792
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:37,959
Speaker 4: I think it's literally that we're looking at the strength

793
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 4: of schedules too much. I think it's the Jaguars by

794
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:43,080
Speaker 4: themselves are given all these easy strength to schedules, like

795
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:45,120
Speaker 4: giving a boost to them because the Jaguars win totals

796
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 4: four and a half. So let's say the Coats blowing

797
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 4: against the Jaguars, there goes your value right there. So

798
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:51,920
Speaker 4: to me, that's how you make money on these win totals,

799
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:53,680
Speaker 4: is you bet against the hype of these kind of

800
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:54,080
Speaker 4: teams that.

801
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:56,439
Speaker 3: You're like, I could see it. They are pretty good

802
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:57,000
Speaker 3: on paper.

803
00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:00,719
Speaker 4: I can't necessarily, you know, say that they're that bad,

804
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 4: like those are the perfect teams that I think you

805
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 4: bet again.

806
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 2: Breadvers is on the downill and it looks like it is.

807
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 2: I mean, then this isn't all good. This isn't gonna

808
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:08,880
Speaker 2: work all right.

809
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 4: So that does it for our six pack and longtime

810
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:14,840
Speaker 4: listeners will know that during the season we always do

811
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 4: a coaches pep Talk segment and we're bringing it back

812
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:21,920
Speaker 4: even for the season preview pods. So this coach is

813
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 4: pep talk is from the two thousand film Bring It On,

814
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 4: and it's dedicated to none other than Adam Geese.

815
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 2: What are you doing?

816
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:33,840
Speaker 3: You're wrecking everything I built?

817
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:35,360
Speaker 2: So this season should have been gravy.

818
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 3: Okay, I was a real leader. Okay, I did what

819
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:39,400
Speaker 3: I had to choosing.

820
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:41,919
Speaker 2: Ever since I handed the rains over you, you've run

821
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 2: my squad straight into the ground. All right.

822
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 4: There you have it our coaches pep Talk And that

823
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:50,640
Speaker 4: one was pretty funny because you listen to the clip

824
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 4: stuck and immediately within I would say, a millisecond of

825
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 4: listening to the clip, you're like Adam Gates. That's it,

826
00:37:57,200 --> 00:38:00,200
Speaker 4: Sadam Gates. Right away, Jets under I'm I'm still you

827
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:02,880
Speaker 4: took that from me. But let's get into our mailback

828
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 4: segment because we got a lot of good questions on

829
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 4: Twitter and want to kind of use this to talk

830
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:11,240
Speaker 4: through some of the teams that we didn't mention in

831
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 4: the six pack, kind of like we do with our

832
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:15,959
Speaker 4: Best of the Rest segment during the year. So let's

833
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:19,359
Speaker 4: start with a question from b Cotman two three two

834
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 4: five on Twitter. He asks better shot to win the division?

835
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:27,719
Speaker 4: The Texans or the Steelers. And the Steelers, as I mentioned,

836
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 4: have a win total of nine, the Texans are at

837
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:31,960
Speaker 4: seven and a half. Stuff, what are your thoughts on

838
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:34,840
Speaker 4: who has a better shot to win their respective division?

839
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:37,919
Speaker 2: That's a really good question, but I would I would

840
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:41,840
Speaker 2: go with I would end up going with the Texans

841
00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:47,320
Speaker 2: for this reason only, and that's because in both divisions

842
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 2: you have a clear bottom feeder, right, So you have

843
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 2: the Bengals and you have the Jaguars, and then you

844
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 2: have three teams in each that you could argue will

845
00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:59,400
Speaker 2: make the playoffs. Right, you could find an argument for

846
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:01,840
Speaker 2: all six of the other teams, the Texans, the Colts,

847
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:04,719
Speaker 2: the Titans, the Ravens, the Steelers, the Browns. You can

848
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 2: make it argue with that all of them are going

849
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 2: to make the playoffs. The differentiating factor is that I

850
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:13,520
Speaker 2: think that the Ravens are the best clearly of any

851
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 2: team in either one of those divisions, and the second

852
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:20,440
Speaker 2: best team is the Steelers. And I'm looking at my

853
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 2: numbers here, I basically have the Browns the same as

854
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 2: the Colts. Yeah, and the Titans are right there. I mean,

855
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:30,399
Speaker 2: they're all close, but I think that the Ravens being

856
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:33,160
Speaker 2: clearly that elite and just the cream of the crop.

857
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:36,399
Speaker 2: In the AFC, I'd say the Texans. And you can

858
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 2: make an argument that the Steelers, Browns, and Ravens, all

859
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:43,479
Speaker 2: three of those teams are better than those other three

860
00:39:43,480 --> 00:39:44,839
Speaker 2: teams in the IC South.

861
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:46,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, it's wide open.

862
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 4: You have to go with the Texans because that division

863
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:52,880
Speaker 4: is wide open. There are a lot of slightly above

864
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:57,000
Speaker 4: average teams. And you look at the value on the Texans,

865
00:39:57,000 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 4: they're sitting here at plus two fifty to plus three fifty.

866
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:05,320
Speaker 4: Excuse me, so you know to win the AFC South,

867
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:08,560
Speaker 4: whereas the Colts are at plus one ten, the Titans

868
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:11,920
Speaker 4: are at plus one eighty, so you're clearly getting value there.

869
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:14,880
Speaker 4: And then the Steelers are also at plus three fifty,

870
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:17,400
Speaker 4: but you have the Ravens as the clear cut favorite

871
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 4: at minus two twenty five. So just from that perspective

872
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:22,480
Speaker 4: you look at who's out in front of the division,

873
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:26,400
Speaker 4: that gives you a good, I think, perspective on how

874
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:28,440
Speaker 4: likely there is for an upset.

875
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:29,280
Speaker 3: You said it perfectly.

876
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 4: It's just all those teams are close, and in the

877
00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:35,440
Speaker 4: AFC South, we don't know which one is ultimately going

878
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 4: to come out on top. But I again, the Texans

879
00:40:38,200 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 4: have won nine or more games in all but one

880
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:42,080
Speaker 4: of Billbrian's season, so got to go with them. I

881
00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 4: think the way to bet this for me is taking

882
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:48,440
Speaker 4: a higher upside bet. Take them to win the AFC,

883
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:50,879
Speaker 4: you know, without Grady and Belichick in their way.

884
00:40:51,080 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 3: Take them for a super Bowl future.

885
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:54,960
Speaker 4: Maybe they are twelve to one to win the AFC,

886
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 4: they're twenty five to one to win the Super Bowl,

887
00:40:57,560 --> 00:40:59,760
Speaker 4: something like that. It could all come together for the Steelers.

888
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 4: They have really good defense, Ben Roethlisberger's back. That changes

889
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:05,719
Speaker 4: a lot because they had horrid quarterback play year ago.

890
00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 4: But they're still further behind the Ravens than the Texans

891
00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 4: are behind it, and any of those teams in the

892
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:14,719
Speaker 4: AFC South. All right, and before we continue, we're asking you, guys,

893
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:17,319
Speaker 4: our beloved listeners, to head to Apple Podcast and give

894
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:20,240
Speaker 4: us a five star rating and write a quick review.

895
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:23,239
Speaker 4: It only takes about thirty seconds, and if you're not

896
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:25,840
Speaker 4: sure how to do it, it's easy. If you're listening

897
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:28,359
Speaker 4: on an iPhone, you can go to Apple Podcast, tap

898
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:31,879
Speaker 4: the Action Network podcast tile and scroll all the way

899
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 4: down to the episodes with they're at the bottom. You

900
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:38,040
Speaker 4: will see ratings and review. You mentioned how incredibly smart

901
00:41:38,040 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 4: and charming I always am and stucky sometimes is, and

902
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 4: you give us five stars.

903
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:45,600
Speaker 3: We really appreciate it. Let's keep it moving.

904
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 4: Eric underscore Corey on Twitter asks us for a parlay

905
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:54,719
Speaker 4: of division winners. So a lot of division winner questions here.

906
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 4: I think those are interesting because bets that are less

907
00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:00,800
Speaker 4: likely in the event of something unforced happening, maybe the

908
00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:03,640
Speaker 4: season gets short in the fourteen games, these bets will

909
00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:06,399
Speaker 4: still stand regardless, you won't have to re bet them,

910
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:10,560
Speaker 4: so they are interesting. I'm gonna say Buffalo plus one

911
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:15,680
Speaker 4: fifty parlayed with Tennessee plus one eighty. I think Buffalo is,

912
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 4: in my opinion, the best team in the AFC East

913
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:22,160
Speaker 4: with Brady now being in Tampa Bay and not on

914
00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:25,279
Speaker 4: New England. Not sure exactly what to expect out of

915
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 4: Cam Newton, Not even one hundred percent sure he was

916
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 4: brought in to be the starter, given that they waited

917
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:34,279
Speaker 4: to early July to sign him. The Patriots don't seem

918
00:42:34,360 --> 00:42:36,000
Speaker 4: like the team that's just going to bring a guy

919
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:39,839
Speaker 4: in to start after the whole meeting process and all

920
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 4: the Zoom meetings and all that have been kind of

921
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:45,319
Speaker 4: gotten underway for a couple of months. So that is

922
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 4: a question mark for me with the Patriots. I think

923
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:49,359
Speaker 4: their defense is great, but the Bills have a very

924
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:53,000
Speaker 4: strong defense. Love what Sean McDermott is doing in Buffalo

925
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:55,800
Speaker 4: and has done. Remember he dragged that team to the

926
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 4: playoffs a couple of years ago when they had no

927
00:42:58,640 --> 00:42:59,760
Speaker 4: business being in the playoffs.

928
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:01,480
Speaker 3: So I think the Buffalo Bills are.

929
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:03,560
Speaker 4: Actually the best team in the AFC East, the most

930
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 4: well rounded team. I think Stefan Diggs helps a lot.

931
00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:08,879
Speaker 4: Josh Allen was I believe it was three for twenty

932
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:12,399
Speaker 4: one targeting wide receivers not named John Brown deep last year,

933
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 4: Stefan Diggs led the league in deep yardage deep touchdowns,

934
00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 4: all that good stuff. So I think it's gonna make

935
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:19,840
Speaker 4: a big difference on their offense. I think that's the

936
00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:22,279
Speaker 4: best team. And then Tennessee they keep doing it year

937
00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:25,960
Speaker 4: after year. They keep exceeding expectations. Again, I think we're

938
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 4: a little too high on the Coats. The formula is

939
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 4: intact for the Titans to continue doing what they do,

940
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:35,720
Speaker 4: which is Derrick Henry play action. I think, very solid defense,

941
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:38,000
Speaker 4: great game planning team, you know, great game plan in

942
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 4: the playoffs to upset the Ravens and Lamar Jackson. So

943
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:44,760
Speaker 4: this is a team that I think will surprise people.

944
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 4: So going with the Bills and Titans parlay to win

945
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:49,040
Speaker 4: the division.

946
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:50,400
Speaker 3: Curious to hear your thoughts on that stuff.

947
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:53,840
Speaker 2: I love the Bills. They fit a lot of the

948
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:56,760
Speaker 2: criteria we've been talking about. I've been saying the staff

949
00:43:56,800 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 2: that I like. Love the staff. Almost the entire team

950
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:03,319
Speaker 2: is intact. Right. They rebuilt their offensive line last year,

951
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 2: which was a weakness outside of Morse, but they rebuilt

952
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:08,720
Speaker 2: it last year. It was a disaster the year before.

953
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:11,360
Speaker 2: That should be dividends this year. All five starters are returning.

954
00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:13,480
Speaker 2: That's big, And like you said, they had digs the

955
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:16,279
Speaker 2: offense should be more dynamic. Josh Allen obviously still has

956
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:18,720
Speaker 2: to get more accurate. You think he would take another

957
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:21,439
Speaker 2: step in that direction. But it's a heavy run based

958
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:24,200
Speaker 2: team and the defense is excellent. They're great against the pass.

959
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:26,640
Speaker 2: They had Addison and Jefferson, which helped should help them

960
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:29,120
Speaker 2: get pressure, which is a semi weak point last year.

961
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 2: They really are excelled taking away the deep, the deep

962
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:34,120
Speaker 2: pass and the big play. Their linebackers are a little

963
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:36,359
Speaker 2: weak against the run, but I mean we're nitpicking here,

964
00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:38,680
Speaker 2: so their special teams were much improved last year. A

965
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 2: lot of returning production love the staff, so I do

966
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:44,440
Speaker 2: love the Bills, and especially because I'm lower on the

967
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:46,840
Speaker 2: Patriots in the market in regards to the Titans, I

968
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:50,239
Speaker 2: mean that division is very tough for me. I have

969
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 2: the Titans projected at nine point one. I have the

970
00:44:54,920 --> 00:44:58,160
Speaker 2: Colts projected at nine point one. You know, the Texans

971
00:44:58,440 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 2: not a fan of the staff, but they still have

972
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 2: the sh on Watson. I'm not a fan of their

973
00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:03,960
Speaker 2: offseason moves like everybody, and I have them lower around

974
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:05,880
Speaker 2: like seven and a half, between seven and a half

975
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:07,520
Speaker 2: and eight. I think, look, if you want to go

976
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 2: with the Titans, and I think I can't fault you,

977
00:45:10,040 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 2: but I just I think that's a complete toss up

978
00:45:12,440 --> 00:45:15,480
Speaker 2: between the Titans and the Colts and it'll just come

979
00:45:15,520 --> 00:45:17,279
Speaker 2: down to the wire. So I don't disagree with either

980
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:17,759
Speaker 2: of those two.

981
00:45:18,080 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 4: If you make this bet with the Bills plus one

982
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 4: fifty and the Titans plus one eighty, a one hundred

983
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:26,600
Speaker 4: hour bet pays out at six to one, So if

984
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 4: you bet one hundred, you get seven hundred back. If

985
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:32,160
Speaker 4: you swapped into Texans for the Titans, you'd be betting

986
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:35,600
Speaker 4: a parlay with the Bills plus one fifty Texans plus

987
00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:39,640
Speaker 4: three fifty. That would then pay out one twenty five dollars,

988
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:43,440
Speaker 4: So one hundred hour bet would get you eleven twenty

989
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 4: five backs. So you'll pick your kind of bet of choice.

990
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 4: If you want to go for the longer shot. I

991
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:51,600
Speaker 4: don't think it's ever wrong to bet against Deshaun Watson

992
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:54,440
Speaker 4: as well. But I think when you're looking for a parlay,

993
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 4: even if you're looking to maybe parway a favorite like

994
00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:02,840
Speaker 4: the Chiefs for example, with a longer shot underdog, I

995
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 4: think you want to look in the AFC South for

996
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:09,160
Speaker 4: that value because you're getting good odds on pretty much

997
00:46:09,200 --> 00:46:12,320
Speaker 4: everybody on the other two teams that aren't the Colts

998
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:14,880
Speaker 4: in terms of teams that have a good chance of

999
00:46:14,920 --> 00:46:16,799
Speaker 4: winning that division, and the Titans in the Texans. So

1000
00:46:17,360 --> 00:46:19,120
Speaker 4: if you want some value on the Chiefs, who are

1001
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:21,440
Speaker 4: minus four fifty five, you're never going to bet that

1002
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:24,040
Speaker 4: straight up, even though I think it's pretty close to

1003
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:26,719
Speaker 4: a lot that they win that division. It's a great

1004
00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 4: parlay pick to add in with a team like the

1005
00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:34,080
Speaker 4: Titans or the Texts. The Vegas models are obviously very sophisticated,

1006
00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:37,600
Speaker 4: and to beat Vegas and beat their models with our own.

1007
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:40,440
Speaker 4: I think one of the most important thing is to

1008
00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:45,600
Speaker 4: understand which teams get an added edge in terms of

1009
00:46:45,600 --> 00:46:47,799
Speaker 4: their coaching staff. And you kind of alluded to this

1010
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:51,200
Speaker 4: earlier Stuck. I think the Bills are in that category.

1011
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:55,480
Speaker 4: I think the Titans are also in that category. Consistently

1012
00:46:55,840 --> 00:46:58,239
Speaker 4: beating expectations and with the type of players that they

1013
00:46:58,239 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 4: did with Ryan Tannehill kind of coming out of and

1014
00:47:00,840 --> 00:47:05,279
Speaker 4: becoming a completely different quarterback, they are just maximizing what

1015
00:47:05,280 --> 00:47:07,960
Speaker 4: they're able to do. They had no business beating the

1016
00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 4: Baltimore Ravens in that playoff game, but they came with

1017
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:14,319
Speaker 4: an excellent game plan, and they frustrated Lamar Jackson and

1018
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:16,640
Speaker 4: they took away you know, what he wanted to do

1019
00:47:17,160 --> 00:47:18,520
Speaker 4: as a thrower, and they made.

1020
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:20,560
Speaker 3: Him uncomfortable even when he did run the football.

1021
00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:23,280
Speaker 4: So they get a booth from their coaching staff, and

1022
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:26,080
Speaker 4: the Patriots for all these years have gotten that same

1023
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:29,400
Speaker 4: kind of boost where we've seen them cover.

1024
00:47:29,280 --> 00:47:30,319
Speaker 3: As favorites at race.

1025
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 4: You just don't see in sports because the books are

1026
00:47:32,719 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 4: always going to shade the line toward the favorite because

1027
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 4: everyone likes to bet favorite. So these coaching staffs in

1028
00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:41,120
Speaker 4: certain spots a lot of times when you hear me

1029
00:47:41,200 --> 00:47:43,160
Speaker 4: make a pick and it sounds like you too, stuck,

1030
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:46,760
Speaker 4: it seems like that is the differentiating factor in a

1031
00:47:46,880 --> 00:47:48,799
Speaker 4: weege where everyone's kind of projected pretty tight.

1032
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:49,920
Speaker 3: This is the team I'm going with.

1033
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:52,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's where a lot of my edge in the

1034
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:54,440
Speaker 2: NFL comes from. And it's a very efficient market. But

1035
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:57,640
Speaker 2: you know there's situational spots and things of that nature

1036
00:47:57,840 --> 00:47:59,600
Speaker 2: you know to factor in as well. But yeah, I

1037
00:47:59,600 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 2: completely with you. I mean, if you want to make

1038
00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:03,480
Speaker 2: a case for the Texans and their defense, this is

1039
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:05,480
Speaker 2: why it's such an interesting division. They have a new

1040
00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:08,400
Speaker 2: defensive coordinator, Anthony Weaver. They're gonna go to a new scheme.

1041
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:11,120
Speaker 2: They all they did last year. I think Romeo Crust

1042
00:48:11,080 --> 00:48:12,400
Speaker 2: still on the step, but they would just drop that

1043
00:48:12,480 --> 00:48:14,560
Speaker 2: third and longs. They were so bad. They wouldn't blitz.

1044
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:17,360
Speaker 2: They were dropping back. They were dropping back into these zones.

1045
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:19,920
Speaker 2: It was just a very pass But they had their

1046
00:48:19,960 --> 00:48:23,440
Speaker 2: corners stunk, like you have to scheme and they still stink.

1047
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:25,399
Speaker 2: I mean they had some good cuts, I mean get

1048
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:27,760
Speaker 2: rid of Hargreaves and Joseph, but I mean their corners

1049
00:48:27,800 --> 00:48:30,120
Speaker 2: still aren't good. They need to get more pressure. That

1050
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:32,640
Speaker 2: has to be schemed. They have to change that whole

1051
00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 2: defensive scheme to make up for So maybe Anthony Weaver

1052
00:48:35,200 --> 00:48:36,920
Speaker 2: comes in here as the next D line coach. It

1053
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:39,920
Speaker 2: proves you know, you know black Clock coming in, get

1054
00:48:40,000 --> 00:48:42,960
Speaker 2: some development there, and then he schemes this defense to

1055
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:46,000
Speaker 2: be more productive because the defense was just I mean off.

1056
00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 2: They couldn't get off the field. You know, the offensive

1057
00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:49,799
Speaker 2: line has questions, but you have the Sean Watson to

1058
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:51,960
Speaker 2: make up for some of that. Then they could take

1059
00:48:51,960 --> 00:48:54,719
Speaker 2: that next step with an elite quarterback and.

1060
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:56,880
Speaker 3: Let's kind of go to the opposite end.

1061
00:48:56,960 --> 00:49:01,200
Speaker 4: Because I think when people that a lot of time,

1062
00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:04,040
Speaker 4: they start with what looked like the worst teams in

1063
00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:06,920
Speaker 4: the league. Jacksonville is a team that we've kind of

1064
00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:09,000
Speaker 4: been talking about a lot because I think we you know,

1065
00:49:09,080 --> 00:49:12,960
Speaker 4: for different reasons, Jacksonville kind of throws off every team

1066
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:15,600
Speaker 4: in terms of their strength to schedule. Because Jacksonville just

1067
00:49:16,200 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 4: projected so poorly. They're projected for four and a half wins.

1068
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:21,600
Speaker 4: Sounds like you have them pretty well in your in

1069
00:49:21,680 --> 00:49:25,440
Speaker 4: your numbers as well. Do you bet the the under

1070
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:29,520
Speaker 4: for a team like Jacksonville? Are they bad enough? Because

1071
00:49:30,120 --> 00:49:32,799
Speaker 4: truck one two two three on Twitter acts, Are the

1072
00:49:32,880 --> 00:49:36,520
Speaker 4: Jags really that bad to consider betting under four and

1073
00:49:36,560 --> 00:49:36,960
Speaker 4: a half?

1074
00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:40,600
Speaker 2: It all comes down to where you project them ultimately

1075
00:49:40,640 --> 00:49:42,719
Speaker 2: and the diffrench. I mean, I have them projected for

1076
00:49:43,280 --> 00:49:45,560
Speaker 2: right at four wins and they're over unders four and

1077
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:48,319
Speaker 2: a half. It's not enough of an edge for me

1078
00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:50,759
Speaker 2: to bet. I mean, it's a tough division. Last year

1079
00:49:50,760 --> 00:49:53,760
Speaker 2: they were a bottom three offense, a bottom three defense

1080
00:49:54,080 --> 00:49:56,640
Speaker 2: for my number, and a bottom three special teams as

1081
00:49:56,680 --> 00:49:58,439
Speaker 2: bad as you can get. And this is a team

1082
00:49:58,480 --> 00:50:00,720
Speaker 2: that was what four points away for the Super Bowl

1083
00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:05,000
Speaker 2: two years ago. In twenty eighteen, they traded Klayis Campbell.

1084
00:50:05,040 --> 00:50:07,200
Speaker 2: You know, they released Darius, they traded Ramsey. If they

1085
00:50:07,239 --> 00:50:09,440
Speaker 2: traded their cornerback duel, which is one of the strengths

1086
00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:12,320
Speaker 2: of this team, you know, I think that they're in Gockway.

1087
00:50:12,360 --> 00:50:14,680
Speaker 2: Is he not going to play? Is Telvit Smith still retired?

1088
00:50:14,719 --> 00:50:17,440
Speaker 2: And there's just the team's a mess. There's a new

1089
00:50:17,480 --> 00:50:20,600
Speaker 2: offensive coordinator in Jake Gruden. What is he going to do?

1090
00:50:20,840 --> 00:50:25,840
Speaker 2: I mean, they're basically rebuilding an aging and declining defense.

1091
00:50:25,920 --> 00:50:28,400
Speaker 2: I mean, who's their their I mean if Josh Allen,

1092
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:32,080
Speaker 2: Miles Jack are kind of your centerpieces of that defense now,

1093
00:50:32,320 --> 00:50:34,080
Speaker 2: you know, and you hope CJ. Henderson had come in

1094
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:37,000
Speaker 2: and be a productive cornerback right away because you're gonna

1095
00:50:37,040 --> 00:50:39,920
Speaker 2: need them. They have drafted, you know, Chase on a linebacker.

1096
00:50:40,360 --> 00:50:43,200
Speaker 2: It's a rebuilding team in a division with three teams

1097
00:50:43,200 --> 00:50:45,719
Speaker 2: that could potentially go to the playoffs. I think that

1098
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:47,760
Speaker 2: they're going to use more three four looks on defense,

1099
00:50:47,760 --> 00:50:50,680
Speaker 2: which maybe could help. What can Jake Gruden do? I

1100
00:50:50,680 --> 00:50:52,759
Speaker 2: don't know. It's hard for me to find upside with

1101
00:50:52,840 --> 00:50:55,319
Speaker 2: this team. I would play under or nothing To answer

1102
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 2: the question. Probably close to as bad as the market projects.

1103
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:03,120
Speaker 2: I'm staying away from the Jags, but it's under or nothing.

1104
00:51:03,560 --> 00:51:06,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's not one that I would recommend necessarily going

1105
00:51:06,160 --> 00:51:09,160
Speaker 4: and betting, because because again, when you're trying to find

1106
00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:11,439
Speaker 4: value and really stay ahead of the market and beat

1107
00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:14,399
Speaker 4: the market, like, there's a few unders that everyone's gonna

1108
00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:17,440
Speaker 4: look to. I think the Dolphins last year, and they

1109
00:51:17,480 --> 00:51:18,960
Speaker 4: didn't end up going under, did they.

1110
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:22,719
Speaker 2: They won against the Pats to go over the horrific beat.

1111
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:25,839
Speaker 4: So the obvious ones are probably the ones i'd say

1112
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:29,040
Speaker 4: stay away from the most, just because it doesn't take

1113
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:33,359
Speaker 4: much for even a bad team to stumble into five

1114
00:51:33,440 --> 00:51:36,400
Speaker 4: wins and go five and eleven. In case in point,

1115
00:51:36,680 --> 00:51:40,399
Speaker 4: the Jaguars essentially quit down the stretch last season. I mean,

1116
00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:44,080
Speaker 4: if you watch them play, it was inexplicable, the effort

1117
00:51:44,120 --> 00:51:46,080
Speaker 4: that they were given. It was inexplicable, the way they

1118
00:51:46,080 --> 00:51:48,520
Speaker 4: were losing games and getting blown out, and they still

1119
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:51,680
Speaker 4: went six and ten. Their Pythagoran win tota was five

1120
00:51:51,960 --> 00:51:56,360
Speaker 4: point four. So are they in line for some regression? Probably,

1121
00:51:56,480 --> 00:51:59,799
Speaker 4: But Doug Rohan's worst season was five and eleven with

1122
00:51:59,840 --> 00:52:04,200
Speaker 4: the He has never lost fewer than five games. Maybe

1123
00:52:04,239 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 4: this year is the first, But it just kind of shows,

1124
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:08,640
Speaker 4: you know, even when the Jags in twenty eighteen, Blake

1125
00:52:08,640 --> 00:52:13,239
Speaker 4: Bordo started struggling tremendously, they still didn't go under four

1126
00:52:13,239 --> 00:52:15,840
Speaker 4: and a half. So it's just really tough because you

1127
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:18,640
Speaker 4: could have a situation where there's a meaningless week seventeen game.

1128
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:21,120
Speaker 4: There's just a lot of different scenarios that could play

1129
00:52:21,120 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 4: out that could impact a team, and you have such

1130
00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:28,480
Speaker 4: a little margin for error. That's like my favorite bets

1131
00:52:28,840 --> 00:52:31,919
Speaker 4: are always the ones where it's those teams that most

1132
00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:34,719
Speaker 4: people can probably make a better positive case than a

1133
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:37,680
Speaker 4: negative case that are at the end of the day,

1134
00:52:37,760 --> 00:52:40,120
Speaker 4: just kind of average teams like the Broncos and the

1135
00:52:40,200 --> 00:52:42,600
Speaker 4: Colts and the Jets and all those teams.

1136
00:52:43,200 --> 00:52:45,000
Speaker 3: So there's a few teams that we didn't really get to.

1137
00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:49,439
Speaker 4: Let's do a little modified best of the rest segment here,

1138
00:52:49,800 --> 00:52:52,440
Speaker 4: and we have the Miami Dolphins their win total six

1139
00:52:52,520 --> 00:52:55,040
Speaker 4: and a half. We have the Cleveland Browns at eight

1140
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:57,920
Speaker 4: and a half, the Los Angeles Chargers at seven and

1141
00:52:58,000 --> 00:53:02,120
Speaker 4: a half, and the Vegas Raiders is at seven. None

1142
00:53:02,120 --> 00:53:04,479
Speaker 4: of those really stands out to me as a great

1143
00:53:04,560 --> 00:53:08,000
Speaker 4: value either way. But any thoughts on any of those stuff.

1144
00:53:07,960 --> 00:53:11,160
Speaker 2: I mean the Dolphins, I've projected right where they're at

1145
00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:13,640
Speaker 2: five point eight. But I love what they're doing down there,

1146
00:53:13,760 --> 00:53:15,200
Speaker 2: and they have the most cap space in the NFL.

1147
00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:17,520
Speaker 2: I mean, it's amazing that they what they finished five

1148
00:53:17,560 --> 00:53:18,960
Speaker 2: and four last year with that roster. I mean it

1149
00:53:19,080 --> 00:53:22,160
Speaker 2: was basically a practice squad roster. I love what they're

1150
00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:24,680
Speaker 2: doing down there. I love some of their draft picks.

1151
00:53:24,719 --> 00:53:26,800
Speaker 2: I love the additions of Vanny and Jack Laws and

1152
00:53:27,120 --> 00:53:29,160
Speaker 2: it'll help their pass rush. I love their corners. Now

1153
00:53:29,200 --> 00:53:31,319
Speaker 2: they're gonna be very man heavy team. But you know,

1154
00:53:31,440 --> 00:53:33,880
Speaker 2: can Tua come in and give them a spark. I

1155
00:53:33,880 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 2: don't know. I really like what they're building, but I'm

1156
00:53:35,640 --> 00:53:38,080
Speaker 2: at right at five point eight, so no value there. Yeah.

1157
00:53:38,200 --> 00:53:40,520
Speaker 2: With the Raiders, they're an interesting team. The offense. I

1158
00:53:40,560 --> 00:53:42,680
Speaker 2: love the offensive line. You could argue's the best offensive

1159
00:53:42,680 --> 00:53:45,160
Speaker 2: line in football. You know, they have a great running back,

1160
00:53:45,239 --> 00:53:48,960
Speaker 2: they have some talented receiver. I hate their defense. That

1161
00:53:49,160 --> 00:53:51,640
Speaker 2: is what basically what this comes down to. Cut through

1162
00:53:51,680 --> 00:53:54,920
Speaker 2: has to go. I mean, just a horrible, horrible defensive coordinator.

1163
00:53:54,960 --> 00:53:57,400
Speaker 2: I don't know why they keep them, and just the

1164
00:53:57,520 --> 00:54:00,319
Speaker 2: scheme there's way too much zone. They don't blitz it all.

1165
00:54:00,760 --> 00:54:03,160
Speaker 2: They're the first team in NFL history of no sacks

1166
00:54:03,400 --> 00:54:06,680
Speaker 2: from any linebacker or defensive back in a season. I mean,

1167
00:54:06,719 --> 00:54:09,239
Speaker 2: the scheme is just awful. You know, they're an intriguing

1168
00:54:09,320 --> 00:54:12,680
Speaker 2: team in that division if things work out, I mean,

1169
00:54:12,719 --> 00:54:15,400
Speaker 2: if their defense gets better. But what keeps me away

1170
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:17,320
Speaker 2: from them, and I don't see any value in the

1171
00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:19,440
Speaker 2: win total, Well keeps away from them is their is

1172
00:54:19,480 --> 00:54:22,480
Speaker 2: Their schedule is brutal. It's one of the hardest in

1173
00:54:22,480 --> 00:54:26,440
Speaker 2: the NFL. For my numbers. You start at Carolina, see

1174
00:54:26,480 --> 00:54:29,960
Speaker 2: hopefully to win that game because then it's Saints, then

1175
00:54:30,280 --> 00:54:32,960
Speaker 2: at the Pats on a short week, and then home

1176
00:54:33,000 --> 00:54:36,000
Speaker 2: against the Bills, and then at the Chiefs. I mean,

1177
00:54:36,040 --> 00:54:38,439
Speaker 2: and then you getna buy and then your bucks at

1178
00:54:38,480 --> 00:54:42,000
Speaker 2: the Browns. When you're talking, you could potentially start one

1179
00:54:42,080 --> 00:54:44,640
Speaker 2: in five and it could go downhill from there by

1180
00:54:44,680 --> 00:54:46,880
Speaker 2: the way, the coaching needs to get better. And with

1181
00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:50,000
Speaker 2: the Raiders, the Vegas Raiders now it's seventeen third quarter

1182
00:54:50,040 --> 00:54:52,520
Speaker 2: points all season last year. I mean, where are the adjustments?

1183
00:54:52,840 --> 00:54:56,680
Speaker 2: So but no value there. Yeah, Chargers are interesting because

1184
00:54:56,680 --> 00:54:59,040
Speaker 2: their defense is gonna get healthy. They were really unlucky

1185
00:54:59,080 --> 00:55:02,320
Speaker 2: last year. Can their offensive line be better with the additions.

1186
00:55:02,320 --> 00:55:06,319
Speaker 2: They're older, but with Laga and Thomas Ken their offensive better.

1187
00:55:06,360 --> 00:55:08,360
Speaker 2: It's been so bad there's still questions about it. But

1188
00:55:08,360 --> 00:55:10,439
Speaker 2: their defense should be really good. This is everyone's super

1189
00:55:10,480 --> 00:55:12,959
Speaker 2: Bowl sweetheart just a year or two ago. But what

1190
00:55:13,040 --> 00:55:14,920
Speaker 2: are you going to get a quarterback? When is Herbert

1191
00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:16,920
Speaker 2: going to come in? Tyra Taylor is not going to

1192
00:55:17,000 --> 00:55:19,600
Speaker 2: turn the ball over, which Rivers did last year, but

1193
00:55:19,640 --> 00:55:21,799
Speaker 2: they're going to be really conservative. I think an under

1194
00:55:21,840 --> 00:55:24,600
Speaker 2: team early. I don't see any value in the wind total.

1195
00:55:24,600 --> 00:55:27,000
Speaker 2: And the last is the Browns. Everyone loved the Browns

1196
00:55:27,080 --> 00:55:29,319
Speaker 2: last year. There's one of the darlings and then they

1197
00:55:29,360 --> 00:55:31,560
Speaker 2: don't live up the expectations. So I think that they

1198
00:55:31,600 --> 00:55:33,239
Speaker 2: might have some value this year. Probably is they're in

1199
00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:36,880
Speaker 2: a tough, tough division. I don't see any value in

1200
00:55:36,880 --> 00:55:38,560
Speaker 2: the win total, even though I'm a little higher than

1201
00:55:38,560 --> 00:55:40,160
Speaker 2: the market on the Browns, but I think that they're

1202
00:55:40,160 --> 00:55:42,439
Speaker 2: a high upside team. I think the way you invest

1203
00:55:42,440 --> 00:55:44,319
Speaker 2: in them is a potential super Bowl future thirty three

1204
00:55:44,360 --> 00:55:46,120
Speaker 2: thirty five to one, because if it does work out

1205
00:55:46,160 --> 00:55:48,400
Speaker 2: and you have that additional playoff team which could benefit

1206
00:55:48,680 --> 00:55:51,399
Speaker 2: a Cleveland or Pittsburgh you know, if Baker Mayfield could

1207
00:55:51,400 --> 00:55:54,000
Speaker 2: take the next step in this new offense, they're going

1208
00:55:54,040 --> 00:55:55,640
Speaker 2: to use a lot more too tight end sets. I

1209
00:55:55,640 --> 00:55:58,399
Speaker 2: think it's gonna fit and their tackles work out. That's big.

1210
00:55:58,400 --> 00:56:01,280
Speaker 2: They address the tackle position. Will it work out remains

1211
00:56:01,280 --> 00:56:03,319
Speaker 2: to be seen. But if the offense works out, the

1212
00:56:03,360 --> 00:56:06,680
Speaker 2: defense has potential. I love the coaching changes. I think

1213
00:56:06,680 --> 00:56:08,840
Speaker 2: that's gonna be I hate the coaching changes for a

1214
00:56:08,880 --> 00:56:10,480
Speaker 2: lot of teams this year, but this is one of

1215
00:56:10,480 --> 00:56:12,760
Speaker 2: the exceptions where I think it's just a huge upgrade

1216
00:56:12,800 --> 00:56:15,160
Speaker 2: in coaching. So I think it's a high upside team.

1217
00:56:15,280 --> 00:56:16,920
Speaker 2: No value in the win total, But if you want

1218
00:56:16,920 --> 00:56:19,520
Speaker 2: to take a shot for a Super Bowl future, I

1219
00:56:19,560 --> 00:56:21,480
Speaker 2: think the Browns are an intriguing team. I have a

1220
00:56:21,520 --> 00:56:22,600
Speaker 2: small bet on them myself.

1221
00:56:22,719 --> 00:56:24,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think all four of those. If I'm betting,

1222
00:56:24,680 --> 00:56:27,640
Speaker 4: I'm going under. And I totally agree on the Browns

1223
00:56:27,680 --> 00:56:30,920
Speaker 4: because you look at the quarterback and I think Baker Mayfield.

1224
00:56:31,080 --> 00:56:34,240
Speaker 4: Of those four teams, you know, you have Fitzpatrick and Tua,

1225
00:56:34,760 --> 00:56:37,040
Speaker 4: you know two. I think eventually we'll probably have that

1226
00:56:37,920 --> 00:56:40,680
Speaker 4: same upside. But right now, in terms of guys that

1227
00:56:40,719 --> 00:56:43,600
Speaker 4: we've already seen it from Baker Mayfield is the one

1228
00:56:43,600 --> 00:56:46,560
Speaker 4: I think that sticks out with some clear upsides. So

1229
00:56:47,120 --> 00:56:49,440
Speaker 4: in general, again, the books are going to inflate these

1230
00:56:49,560 --> 00:56:51,600
Speaker 4: win totals. I think all of those that we just

1231
00:56:51,640 --> 00:56:54,719
Speaker 4: mentioned are off by at least a half a win

1232
00:56:55,080 --> 00:56:57,719
Speaker 4: towards the over, so would invest in the under.

1233
00:56:58,000 --> 00:57:00,080
Speaker 3: I'm looking for any of those, but that's going to

1234
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:00,719
Speaker 3: wrap it up for us.

1235
00:57:00,719 --> 00:57:04,120
Speaker 4: I hope you enjoyed this episode, first one back of

1236
00:57:04,160 --> 00:57:08,400
Speaker 4: the season of the Action Network NFL Betting podcast.

1237
00:57:08,800 --> 00:57:11,120
Speaker 3: Be sure to follow Stucky.

1238
00:57:11,120 --> 00:57:14,560
Speaker 4: On Twitter and on the Action Network app at Stucky two.

1239
00:57:14,800 --> 00:57:18,080
Speaker 4: You can find me at both places at Chris Raybon

1240
00:57:18,680 --> 00:57:22,360
Speaker 4: and be sure check out our content at actionnetwork dot

1241
00:57:22,400 --> 00:57:26,600
Speaker 4: com and listen and download this podcast Spotify.

1242
00:57:27,000 --> 00:57:29,280
Speaker 3: We've was rating and reviews and all that good stuff.

1243
00:57:29,760 --> 00:57:31,120
Speaker 3: Good luck until next week.

1244
00:57:31,200 --> 00:57:33,160
Speaker 2: Let's get this money chers.

1245
00:57:49,400 --> 00:57:50,440
Speaker 4: We're finished talking