WEBVTT - Israel-Hamas Truce Enters Final Day; Remembering Charlie Munger 0:00:02.480 --> 0:00:03.040 Good morning. 0:00:03.080 --> 0:00:05.920 I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the 0:00:05.960 --> 0:00:07.440 stories we're following today. 0:00:07.920 --> 0:00:10.080 We begin with the war in the Middle East. This 0:00:10.240 --> 0:00:13.000 is the final day of an extended six day ceasefire 0:00:13.000 --> 0:00:16.360 between Israel and Hamas. The Palestinian group handed over a 0:00:16.400 --> 0:00:19.680 dozen more hostages last night, ten Israelis and two citizens 0:00:19.680 --> 0:00:23.319 of Thailand. White House National Security spokesman John Kirby says 0:00:23.320 --> 0:00:26.079 he hopes the ceasefire can be extended so more Americans 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:26.599 can be freed. 0:00:26.880 --> 0:00:29.000 I don't want to I'll give you a handicap here 0:00:29.000 --> 0:00:31.480 on this or bet nods. 0:00:31.800 --> 0:00:32.720 I can just tell you that. 0:00:33.880 --> 0:00:35.400 We want to see all the hostages out. 0:00:35.920 --> 0:00:37.800 The way to do that is these pauses. 0:00:38.040 --> 0:00:40.680 My White House spokesman John Kirby spoke with reporters outside 0:00:40.760 --> 0:00:43.760 Air Force one CIA director Bill Burns is and caught 0:00:43.760 --> 0:00:46.480 her for talks about extending the ceasefire. Secretary of State 0:00:46.479 --> 0:00:48.840 Anthony Blincoln will be back in Israel later this week, 0:00:49.000 --> 0:00:51.720 and in a post on ex President Biden called for 0:00:51.760 --> 0:00:54.040 an end of the fighting. He says Hamas fears nothing 0:00:54.080 --> 0:00:58.120 more than Israelis and Palestinians living side by side in peace. 0:00:58.480 --> 0:01:01.080 And now Nathan the financial world. EA is mourning and 0:01:01.120 --> 0:01:04.640 remembering the life of Charlie Munger. Munger, who helped build 0:01:04.720 --> 0:01:08.640 Berkshire Hathaway with Warren Buffett, died yesterday at the age 0:01:08.680 --> 0:01:11.720 of ninety nine, and we have more with Bloomberg's John Tucker, 0:01:11.880 --> 0:01:12.640 John and. 0:01:12.640 --> 0:01:16.360 Karen with wit, wisdom and one liners. Charlie Munger served 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:19.959 as Warren Buffett's alter ego, often telling it with brutal 0:01:19.959 --> 0:01:23.480 honesty what wouldn't work. Munger was known for steering Buffett 0:01:23.480 --> 0:01:27.280 away from purchasing what Buffett called cigar butts mediocre companies 0:01:27.760 --> 0:01:30.119 had a puff of smoke left and could be bought 0:01:30.120 --> 0:01:34.240 for very cheap prices, and instead favoring quality. A lawyer 0:01:34.280 --> 0:01:38.680 by training, Monger recalled how he was steered toward investing. 0:01:38.560 --> 0:01:39.600 When I met Warren. 0:01:39.800 --> 0:01:43.080 He immediately started telling me how much better his way 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:45.120 of making a living was than mine, and that I 0:01:45.200 --> 0:01:48.440 was too smart to stay in such a silly businesses 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:51.080 law practice when I could go into his business of 0:01:51.160 --> 0:01:54.280 running an investment partnership. And it took me about two 0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:57.760 or three years to realize he was right. 0:01:58.080 --> 0:02:01.240 His death, Lee's Buffett without his law time sounding board 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:05.360 for investors, maybe his most enduring legacy is Berkshire's performance 0:02:05.800 --> 0:02:09.080 under their management. Berkshire average an annual gain of twenty 0:02:09.160 --> 0:02:13.440 percent from nineteen sixty five through twenty twenty two. I'm 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:14.880 John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio. 0:02:15.120 --> 0:02:17.800 All right, John, thanks, of course. Charlie Munger is also 0:02:17.840 --> 0:02:20.600 going to be remembered for his roles as straight man 0:02:20.680 --> 0:02:25.639 and scold of corporate excesses at Berkshire's annual meetings in Omaha. 0:02:25.720 --> 0:02:30.800 Bloomberg Intelligence Senior analyst Matthew Pallasola remembers Monger's special relationship 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:31.880 with Warren Buffett. 0:02:32.120 --> 0:02:37.200 They're recalling individual meetings that they had, you know, forty 0:02:37.280 --> 0:02:41.000 fifty years ago, and Bussett is forgetting a couple of things, 0:02:41.000 --> 0:02:43.799 and Munger's reminding him of, well, this guy said that, 0:02:43.880 --> 0:02:45.920 and we said this, and we made this much money 0:02:46.200 --> 0:02:48.880 in these meetings. I mean it was, you know, truly 0:02:49.120 --> 0:02:52.720 a partnership for all of that time. And their interaction 0:02:52.800 --> 0:02:55.400 was just amazing. They would finished each other sentences. 0:02:55.240 --> 0:02:59.000 And Bloomberg Intelligence Senior analyst Matthew Pallasola there. Charlie Munger 0:02:59.040 --> 0:03:02.240 died yesterday at a hospital in California. He was a 0:03:02.320 --> 0:03:04.280 longtime resident of Los Angeles. 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:07.800 Well Nathan, we turn to the market, specifically the economy 0:03:07.880 --> 0:03:10.920 now and billionaire investor Bill Ackman, who's betting the Federal 0:03:10.919 --> 0:03:14.679 Reserve will begin cutting interest rates sooner than markets are predicting. 0:03:14.919 --> 0:03:17.720 I think there's a risk of a hard landing if 0:03:17.760 --> 0:03:20.160 the FED doesn't start cutting rates, you know, pretty soon. 0:03:20.240 --> 0:03:23.040 So I think the market expects sometime middle of next year. 0:03:23.360 --> 0:03:25.560 I think it's more likely, probably as early as key. 0:03:25.440 --> 0:03:28.000 One and Bill Lackman added that he's not convinced the 0:03:28.080 --> 0:03:31.720 US economy is headed for a soft landing. The billionaire 0:03:31.720 --> 0:03:34.280 investor made the comments in an upcoming episode of The 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:38.160 David Rubinstein Show. Here to Beer Conversations on Bloomberg Television. 0:03:38.280 --> 0:03:40.240 Well Karen Bill Ackman's comments come as two of the 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:43.080 fed's most hawkish rate setter signal they could be comfortable 0:03:43.080 --> 0:03:46.040 holding rates steady for now. Here's what FED Governor Christopher 0:03:46.080 --> 0:03:49.120 Waller told the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. 0:03:49.600 --> 0:03:53.839 I am increasingly confident the policy is currently well positioned 0:03:54.400 --> 0:03:57.800 to slow the economy and get inflation back to two percent. 0:03:58.120 --> 0:04:00.320 Chris Waller's view as echoed by a fellow FED governor, 0:04:00.360 --> 0:04:03.080 Michelle Bowman, who said she remains willing to support great 0:04:03.160 --> 0:04:06.240 hikes if inflation progress stalls, but she did stop short 0:04:06.280 --> 0:04:08.200 of endorsing an increase next month. 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:08.720 Well. 0:04:08.720 --> 0:04:11.520 In Washington, Nathan, the House of Representatives may be voting 0:04:11.600 --> 0:04:14.880 on whether to expel George Santos today or tomorrow, and 0:04:14.880 --> 0:04:16.960 Bloomberg's Ed Baxter has that story. 0:04:17.760 --> 0:04:20.320 Motions in the House have been formally introduced, saying ethics 0:04:20.400 --> 0:04:24.159 findings violate the accepted policies of the body. Now, many 0:04:24.240 --> 0:04:27.560 of those members who voted against the first one November one, 0:04:28.160 --> 0:04:31.920 are saying they will vote to expel now, and Santos 0:04:31.960 --> 0:04:35.120 has responded saying the body is just theater. 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:37.200 I went to San Diego last week. 0:04:37.520 --> 0:04:39.960 It is terrible, terrible. 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:43.279 That's what we should be putting our energy on, not 0:04:43.520 --> 0:04:47.159 on censuring one another, expelling one another, which hunts against 0:04:47.640 --> 0:04:48.599 the political class. 0:04:48.680 --> 0:04:49.720 Nobody cares. 0:04:50.160 --> 0:04:53.080 Congress has forty eight hours to act under the resolution. 0:04:53.720 --> 0:04:55.600 Ed Baxter Bloomberg Radio. 0:04:55.360 --> 0:04:56.240 Okay and thank you. 0:04:56.600 --> 0:05:00.200 President Biden won't be there, but Vice President Kamala Harris 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:03.440 this is attending the COP twenty eighth Climate Summit in Dubai. 0:05:03.600 --> 0:05:05.480 We get details from Bloomberg's Amy Morris. 0:05:05.760 --> 0:05:08.760 Harris will join Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln and other 0:05:08.920 --> 0:05:12.279 US officials at the two week event that begins tomorrow. 0:05:12.560 --> 0:05:15.520 She is expected to address the summit this week. Formal 0:05:15.600 --> 0:05:18.400 negotiations at COP twenty eight will center on the response 0:05:18.480 --> 0:05:22.039 to warnings that countries are falling short and cutting their emissions, 0:05:22.080 --> 0:05:25.839 and possible commitments to phase down fossil fuels in Washington, 0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:27.200 Amy Morris, Bloomberg Radio. 0:05:27.400 --> 0:05:29.359 All Right, Amy, thanks for the Incorporate news and a 0:05:29.400 --> 0:05:33.279 surprise memo. Jack ma urged Ali Baba Group to correct 0:05:33.360 --> 0:05:36.760 course civilionaire call for fundamental change across the company he 0:05:36.839 --> 0:05:40.040 co founded decades ago. Ma has mostly stayed away from 0:05:40.120 --> 0:05:43.080 day to day operations since twenty twenty, and Ali Baba 0:05:43.120 --> 0:05:46.200 wants China's best candidate to become a trillion dollar company 0:05:46.680 --> 0:05:49.839 is trading at a fraction of its peak in twenty twenty. 0:05:54.360 --> 0:05:55.640 Time now for a look at some of the other 0:05:55.760 --> 0:05:58.120 stories making news around the world. For that, we're joined 0:05:58.120 --> 0:05:59.640 by Bloomberg's Amy Morris. 0:06:00.000 --> 0:06:01.839 Good morning, Good morning, Karen. 0:06:01.960 --> 0:06:05.680 Congressional negotiators are reportedly ready to drop plans to use 0:06:05.720 --> 0:06:08.920 the annual defense policy build of Titan controls on US 0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:13.279 investment in Chinese technology. Sourses tell Bloomberg that House Financial 0:06:13.360 --> 0:06:17.400 Services Chairman Patrick McHenry is effectively blocking a measure that 0:06:17.440 --> 0:06:20.920 would require firms to notify the government about certain investments 0:06:20.920 --> 0:06:24.440 in China and other countries of concern. The Biden administration 0:06:24.560 --> 0:06:28.200 meanwhile getting pushedback from auto dealers on those mandates for 0:06:28.240 --> 0:06:32.320 switching over to electric vehicle production. Bloomberg's Nancy Llons has 0:06:32.360 --> 0:06:33.240 that part of the story. 0:06:33.839 --> 0:06:36.440 The mandate calls for two out of every three vehicles 0:06:36.440 --> 0:06:39.640 sold in the US by twenty thirty two be battery electric, 0:06:39.880 --> 0:06:43.040 but nearly four thousand auto dealers, who are calling themselves 0:06:43.120 --> 0:06:46.440 EV Voice of the Customer say most car buyers, even 0:06:46.480 --> 0:06:49.520 with incentives, are disinterested in the technology due to the 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:52.239 higher cost, the lack of charging stations, and the loss 0:06:52.240 --> 0:06:55.000 of driving range and hot and cold weather. The dealers 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:57.479 are asking President Biden to slow down and let the 0:06:57.480 --> 0:07:02.440 battery technology and infrastructure improve before forcing EV purchases. The 0:07:02.440 --> 0:07:05.039 White House says the proposed standards are not a mandate 0:07:05.200 --> 0:07:08.880 and do not ban gas vehicles in Washington, Nancy Lyons 0:07:08.880 --> 0:07:10.000 Bloomberg Radio. 0:07:09.840 --> 0:07:14.240 Republican Congressman Anthony Disposedesposito made a motion on the House 0:07:14.240 --> 0:07:17.280 floor to force a vote on House Ethics Committee Chairman 0:07:17.320 --> 0:07:22.200 Michael Guests resolution that would expel Congressman George Santos. Minutes later, 0:07:22.320 --> 0:07:25.400 Santos took to the House floor himself to defiantly say 0:07:25.680 --> 0:07:26.880 he will not resign. 0:07:27.000 --> 0:07:29.880 Are we to now assume that one is no longer 0:07:29.920 --> 0:07:33.200 innocent until proven guilty, and they are in fact guilty 0:07:33.320 --> 0:07:37.320 until proven innocent, Or are we now to simply assume 0:07:37.680 --> 0:07:40.640 that because somebody doesn't like you, they get. 0:07:40.480 --> 0:07:41.880 To throw you out of your job. 0:07:42.040 --> 0:07:46.040 The House Ethics Committee report alleged Santos used campaign cash 0:07:46.080 --> 0:07:49.640 to pay for personal expenses. He's also facing federal charges. 0:07:50.000 --> 0:07:53.560 A US military Osprey aircraft carrying eight people as crashed 0:07:53.560 --> 0:07:56.760 into the sea off southern Japan. The Japanese Coast Guard 0:07:56.880 --> 0:07:59.360 is heading to the site for search and rescue operations. 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:02.840 Host Guard official says they don't have details yet about 0:08:02.880 --> 0:08:05.320 what happened to the osprey nor to the people on board. 0:08:05.560 --> 0:08:08.160 He says the Coastguard received an emergency call from a 0:08:08.200 --> 0:08:12.040 fishing boat near the crash site off Yakushima. The osprey 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:15.320 was believed to be heading to Okinawa. Global News twenty 0:08:15.360 --> 0:08:17.120 four hours a day and whenever you want it with 0:08:17.160 --> 0:08:20.360 Bloomberg News Now. I'm Maybe Morris and this is Bloomberg Karen. 0:08:20.800 --> 0:08:22.680 All right, Amy, thank you well. We do bring you 0:08:22.760 --> 0:08:25.720 news throughout the day right here on Bloomberg Radio. As 0:08:25.760 --> 0:08:28.560 Amy said, but now you can get the latest news 0:08:28.640 --> 0:08:31.840 on demand whenever you want it. You can just subscribe 0:08:31.880 --> 0:08:34.600 to Bloomberg News Now to get the latest headlines at 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:37.560 the click of a button. Get informed on your schedule. 0:08:37.600 --> 0:08:40.280 You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News Now on 0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:44.400 the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot Com plus Apple, Spotify, 0:08:44.480 --> 0:08:51.320 and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Time now for 0:08:51.320 --> 0:08:55.120 the Bloomberg Sports Update, here's John stash Hour John Darren. 0:08:55.200 --> 0:08:58.440 The NBA started this season with an in season tournament 0:08:58.480 --> 0:09:01.320 to drum up some interest early in the regular season, 0:09:01.360 --> 0:09:04.400 taking a page out of what you see in European soccer. 0:09:04.840 --> 0:09:05.760 Last night they. 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:09.280 Determined which eight teams are advancing to the knockout round 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:12.880 next Monday. In the East, Boston will play at Indiana, 0:09:12.920 --> 0:09:16.320 and then on Tuesday it's the Knicks in Milwaukee. Monday 0:09:16.360 --> 0:09:18.679 in the West, New Orleans and Sacramento, followed the night 0:09:18.760 --> 0:09:21.679 later by Phoenix at the Lakers. The winners will advance 0:09:21.720 --> 0:09:24.520 in the semifinals December seventh in Las Vegas, with the 0:09:24.559 --> 0:09:28.280 championship on December ninth. Minnesota Timberwolves have the best wrecker 0:09:28.360 --> 0:09:30.320 in the West. They won last night. They're thirteen to four. 0:09:30.720 --> 0:09:33.240 They're not advancing, but the Knicks are. They beat Charlotte 0:09:33.240 --> 0:09:36.319 one fifteen to ninety one. The Celtics moving on. They're 0:09:36.360 --> 0:09:37.880 eight to zero. At home, they beat the Bulls one, 0:09:37.960 --> 0:09:42.199 twenty four to ninety seven. Jalen Brown scored thirty. Milwaukee 0:09:42.200 --> 0:09:44.000 got thirty three from Jannis on to the compo in 0:09:44.040 --> 0:09:46.520 a one to thirty one to one twenty four win 0:09:47.040 --> 0:09:51.160 at Miami College Hoops and the sec ACC Challenge the 0:09:51.200 --> 0:09:54.600 SEC one four, including twelfth rank Kentucky beating eighth rank 0:09:54.679 --> 0:09:57.800 Miami ninety five to seventy three. We heard from the 0:09:57.800 --> 0:10:01.079 College Football Playoff Committee. Time we'll hear from them will 0:10:01.120 --> 0:10:04.839 be Sunday with the final four announcing who's going to 0:10:04.920 --> 0:10:08.040 be in the playoffs. Georgia's rank number one. Michigan, with 0:10:08.080 --> 0:10:10.360 the big win over Ohio State, moves up to second. 0:10:10.360 --> 0:10:14.280 Everyone moves up a spot. Washington now third, Florida State fourth, 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:17.800 Oregon fifth. Washington plays Oregon on Friday for the pac 0:10:17.800 --> 0:10:21.079 twelve Championship Ohio State. With the loss dropped the sixth 0:10:21.320 --> 0:10:23.559 John Stasheward Bloomberg Sports. 0:10:26.080 --> 0:10:29.080 From coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, 0:10:29.400 --> 0:10:34.480 Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on siriusxam, the Bloomberg Business 0:10:34.480 --> 0:10:38.240 app in Bloomberg dot com. This is Bloomberg day Break. 0:10:39.320 --> 0:10:39.800 Good morning. 0:10:39.840 --> 0:10:42.959 I'm Nathan Hager. On this final day of an extended 0:10:43.200 --> 0:10:47.520 six day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian militant 0:10:47.559 --> 0:10:51.199 group is handing over more hostages and pressure is building 0:10:51.320 --> 0:10:54.680 on both sides to see if this pause in the 0:10:54.720 --> 0:10:58.160 fighting can be extended even further. For the very latest, 0:10:58.240 --> 0:10:59.959 let's go to Tel Aviv and check in with bloom 0:11:00.360 --> 0:11:03.439 Israel Bureau chief Ethan Bronner. Ethan, it's good to have 0:11:03.480 --> 0:11:05.960 you back with us. What are the prospects that we 0:11:06.000 --> 0:11:08.640 could see this ceasefire extended beyond today? 0:11:10.480 --> 0:11:13.840 Hey, Nathan, I think the prospects are pretty good. I 0:11:13.880 --> 0:11:19.000 think that both sides have been comfortable with this pause, 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:22.440 they would like it to extend. I think it's a 0:11:22.440 --> 0:11:26.360 breather for Hamas, it's a breezer for the Israeli defense forces, 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:30.679 and also it allows more humanitarian aid to get into 0:11:30.720 --> 0:11:33.520 those in great need who are suffering from hunger and 0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:37.000 the outbreak of disease in Gaza. And of course it's 0:11:37.080 --> 0:11:41.560 bringing back to Israel hostages. So the deal is, you know, 0:11:41.720 --> 0:11:47.280 ten hostages a day, another day of a ceasefire, and 0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:49.440 it seems like that could go on at least two 0:11:49.440 --> 0:11:50.319 more days. 0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:54.000 Will it be a ceasefire or could it be a 0:11:54.240 --> 0:11:59.400 resolution to this conflict? We've seen commentary from President Biden 0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:03.640 himself one of his latest posts on the social platform 0:12:04.000 --> 0:12:09.199 X saying that Hamas fears nothing more than Israelis and 0:12:09.240 --> 0:12:12.360 Palestinians living side by side. To continue down the path 0:12:12.400 --> 0:12:17.120 of terror, violence, killing and war is something we can't do. 0:12:17.960 --> 0:12:20.679 Is pressure building to end this war? 0:12:22.240 --> 0:12:22.679 It is? 0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:26.080 And that was an interesting tweet. I don't know if 0:12:26.080 --> 0:12:28.400 you still call it a tweet. An interesting post on 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:33.120 X by the President which suggests that he is slightly 0:12:33.240 --> 0:12:36.480 moving away from a full embrace of an Israeli continuation 0:12:36.600 --> 0:12:40.640 of the war. I think it's a little hard to tell. 0:12:40.800 --> 0:12:44.520 The Israelis very much want to destroy Hamas, and they 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:46.720 believe they can, and they believe they must take this 0:12:46.800 --> 0:12:49.599 opportunity to do so. They believe that they want to 0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:52.760 get as many hostages out as possible and then go 0:12:52.840 --> 0:12:56.120 back into war. It is clearly the case with the 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:59.480 President and many many people abroad think that the war 0:12:59.600 --> 0:13:03.319 has should stop. Too many people have died, too much 0:13:03.360 --> 0:13:07.960 suffering has occurred. And I think that politically President Biden 0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:11.920 is worried. He's also facing internal dissent in his own administration. 0:13:13.240 --> 0:13:16.200 But you know, it could also be that they sort 0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:18.560 of thread this needle in the way that allows the 0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:22.560 Israelis to go ahead in some days time, but in 0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:27.720 a way that is more targeted, there's less civilian death, 0:13:27.920 --> 0:13:31.160 and that allows them to declare a victory. We shall see. 0:13:31.400 --> 0:13:35.120 Are we seeing that play out in the thinking among 0:13:35.320 --> 0:13:39.800 Israeli officials leaders in Israel that we could see a 0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:43.080 more targeted approach and what would that look like? 0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:46.240 Yeah, and what would that look like is a great question. 0:13:47.200 --> 0:13:50.680 We are it's very very hard at the moment to 0:13:50.800 --> 0:13:55.120 get any transparency on what the next military phase will 0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:58.400 look like. When you ask, you're told, sorry, pal, we're 0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:01.240 not sharing it with you. But it is clear from 0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:05.199 public statements and also from pressure from Washington, that they 0:14:05.240 --> 0:14:07.720 have to reduce them the kind of bombardment that began 0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:10.560 in these first weeks of this. This is now almost 0:14:10.600 --> 0:14:14.160 an eight week conflict, and it is clear that they 0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:16.760 want to go after the leaders of Hamas and it's 0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:20.120 military infrastructure. They are saying that they've killed about five 0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:23.640 thousand Hamas guys. They were saying there were about thirty 0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:27.680 thousand of them, So you know, from their perspective, they've 0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:31.440 made progress, but they've hardly gotten everything they need. Now, 0:14:31.480 --> 0:14:33.880 what would it mean to go in a more targeted way. 0:14:34.720 --> 0:14:37.160 You're going to have two million people sort of crowded 0:14:37.200 --> 0:14:39.840 into the southern part of Gaza. I don't know how 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:42.760 you're going to go get underground there without killing people. 0:14:42.880 --> 0:14:44.480 So I don't know how they're going to do it, 0:14:44.520 --> 0:14:47.440 but that's clearly something the Americans are demanding of them 0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:49.360 before they let this go forward. 0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:53.120 What do we know about the hostage releases that are 0:14:53.160 --> 0:14:54.600 expected today. 0:14:55.400 --> 0:14:58.040 Well, we know that these rulis have been given another 0:14:58.120 --> 0:15:02.160 list of ten. Again, only women and children have been 0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:05.840 and gate involved in these exchanges so far, and I 0:15:05.880 --> 0:15:08.280 expect there'll be more women and children in the next 0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:10.880 day or two. Then the question is would they get 0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:14.360 to some men, some soldiers and that's I think a 0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:17.880 more difficult thing. So far, it's been three Israeli three 0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:22.120 prisoners Palston prisoners for each hostage. That may have to change. 0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:24.480 Yeah, we do know that there have been talks underway 0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:27.840 and caught her with the CIA director Bill Burns to 0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:33.360 potentially get that ceasefire and hostage deal extended beyond women 0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:36.360 and children, something else for us to follow. And no, 0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:38.600 we will be doing that as well. Ethan Bronner, thank 0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:40.920 you so much for being with us this morning. Ethan Bronner, 0:15:41.480 --> 0:15:44.480 Israel bureau chief for Bloomberg News, joining us this morning 0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:46.960 from Tel Aviv. And now we want to bring you 0:15:47.000 --> 0:15:50.800 our conversation with the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital, 0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:54.120 Bill Ackman. He says the Fed's going to cut rates 0:15:54.600 --> 0:15:58.240 sooner than many of us expect. Bill Ackman joined Bloomberg's 0:15:58.320 --> 0:16:02.160 David Rubinstein for peer to peer conversations. They discuss the FED, 0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:05.680 the outlook for the US economy, and the twenty twenty 0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:08.240 four presidential elections. So let's bring you part of that 0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:09.520 conversation right now. 0:16:10.080 --> 0:16:13.720 I do think the economy is weakening. We're seeing evidence 0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:16.880 of that in some of our companies. You're seeing I 0:16:16.920 --> 0:16:20.720 have some concerns. There's been a huge subsidy in terms 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:25.320 of low interest rates and companies. Most companies fix their 0:16:25.480 --> 0:16:29.080 rates or their debt at very low rates, and certainly 0:16:29.080 --> 0:16:32.000 real estate investors did the same. And that works until 0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:34.280 it doesn't work, And so I think we're what's going 0:16:34.360 --> 0:16:36.160 to be interesting is to see what happens when people 0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:38.800 get have to reprice their debt, and I think that 0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:40.920 can have sort of a cliff like effect, and you're 0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:43.320 certainly seeing that in real estate now. 0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:45.960 The markets are assuming, and the markets are not always right, 0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:47.680 but the markets are assuming that there's going to be 0:16:47.720 --> 0:16:50.760 a FED discount cut sometime next year. 0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:53.800 As we talk now just about the end of November. 0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:55.920 It's not clear what the Fed will do. 0:16:56.080 --> 0:16:58.600 But some people say that the Fed, if they were 0:16:58.600 --> 0:17:01.160 to cut interest rates next year year, would help the 0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:04.000 Democrats and therefore be seen as very political. The other hand, 0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:05.840 some people say the Fed can't wait till after the 0:17:05.920 --> 0:17:08.440 election because the economy might need a stimulus. 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:09.879 So you have a view on what the Fed is 0:17:09.960 --> 0:17:10.399 likely to do. 0:17:10.640 --> 0:17:12.720 I think they're gonna cut rates, and you know, I 0:17:12.720 --> 0:17:15.560 think they're gonna cut rates sooner than people expect, because 0:17:15.760 --> 0:17:19.120 you know, what's happening is the real rate of interest ultimately, 0:17:19.200 --> 0:17:23.520 which is what impacts the economy, keeps increasing as inflation declines. Right, 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:25.560 So if the FED keeps rates in the sort of 0:17:25.640 --> 0:17:29.400 middle fives and inflation is you know, trending below three 0:17:29.440 --> 0:17:32.000 percent or you know, that's a very high real rate 0:17:32.040 --> 0:17:34.600 of interest, and I think that is having a sort 0:17:34.640 --> 0:17:37.159 of retarding effect on the economy. And then of course, 0:17:37.359 --> 0:17:41.320 again you know, many businesses and certainly many individuals have 0:17:41.359 --> 0:17:44.640 the benefit of fixed rate debt, and that fixed rate debt, 0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:47.639 certainly for companies and for commercial real estate, starts to 0:17:47.720 --> 0:17:50.280 roll off. So I think there's a risk of a 0:17:50.280 --> 0:17:52.720 hard landing if the FED doesn't start cutting rates, you know, 0:17:52.800 --> 0:17:55.080 pretty soon. So you know, I think the market expects 0:17:55.080 --> 0:17:57.480 sometime middle of next year. I think it's more likely 0:17:57.560 --> 0:17:58.840 probably as early as key. 0:17:58.680 --> 0:18:00.959 One by its own and miss and the FED probably 0:18:01.000 --> 0:18:04.879 missed inflation initially they said it was transitory, but they 0:18:05.000 --> 0:18:08.919 played catch up and they've increased rates considerably since that time. 0:18:09.080 --> 0:18:11.280 Do you think the FED made a mistake. 0:18:10.960 --> 0:18:13.840 In not handling inflation differently at the beginning, And how 0:18:13.840 --> 0:18:16.440 do you think they've done since they started increasing interest rates? 0:18:17.080 --> 0:18:18.080 They certainly made a mistake. 0:18:18.160 --> 0:18:20.560 I mean, I think they would have FED generally as 0:18:20.560 --> 0:18:24.000 an institution, would admit that. I think that they caught 0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:28.359 up and effectively. So you give them credit for acknowledging 0:18:28.359 --> 0:18:31.120 the mistake and being pretty aggressive. And then I think, 0:18:31.400 --> 0:18:34.919 you know, you want to make sure that they're you know, 0:18:35.600 --> 0:18:39.320 German Powell's desire not to have a legacy of causing 0:18:39.480 --> 0:18:42.800 or contributing to long term inflation, doesn't, you know, cause 0:18:42.840 --> 0:18:45.160 them to make the opposite mistake, I mean, keep rates 0:18:45.160 --> 0:18:47.879 too high for too long, and I think the market 0:18:47.920 --> 0:18:50.040 expectation is you know, called it middle of next year, 0:18:50.200 --> 0:18:53.520 July something like this for the beginnings of easing. I 0:18:53.560 --> 0:18:57.399 think the economy will likely demand an earlier move. And 0:18:57.440 --> 0:18:59.280 I don't think of the FED as a or at 0:18:59.320 --> 0:19:01.640 least this FED, a particularly political institution. I think they're 0:19:01.640 --> 0:19:02.679 really trying to do the right thing. 0:19:02.840 --> 0:19:07.000 President Biden has called his economic program biden Nomics, which 0:19:07.040 --> 0:19:10.480 has met some derision in Republican circles. You've been an 0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:13.280 active supporter of Democrats, I think more than Republicans. 0:19:13.560 --> 0:19:14.040 Is that right? 0:19:14.080 --> 0:19:17.200 I would say historically I have you know, I would 0:19:17.200 --> 0:19:20.320 say today I certainly consider myself and have for years 0:19:20.320 --> 0:19:23.840 now a centrist, okay, and I'm much more open to 0:19:24.280 --> 0:19:27.359 Republican candidates that I am to re electing President Biden. 0:19:28.040 --> 0:19:30.800 So I you know, you would say otherwise. You know, again, 0:19:31.080 --> 0:19:32.879 I want to elect the best leader of the country, 0:19:32.920 --> 0:19:34.680 whether that person is a Republican or a Democrat. 0:19:34.960 --> 0:19:38.199 But you haven't publicly said you're supporting President Trump if 0:19:38.200 --> 0:19:38.920 he's the nominee. 0:19:39.000 --> 0:19:39.520 Ye. 0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:43.639 I've been supportive of you know, I've been supportive of 0:19:44.400 --> 0:19:45.119 Nikki Haley. 0:19:45.720 --> 0:19:47.520 I've been supportive of Chris Christy. 0:19:48.359 --> 0:19:51.040 I know, the vag Ramswani and I was, you know, 0:19:51.160 --> 0:19:54.560 pre his launch of his candidacy, I was, uh, you know, 0:19:54.640 --> 0:19:58.520 supportive of his having a young, smart, talented, uh you know, 0:19:58.560 --> 0:20:01.720 business leader as a next president. He's just been a 0:20:01.760 --> 0:20:05.600 little too far off, too far to the right, and 0:20:05.680 --> 0:20:09.800 also been disappointed a bit with his you know, geopolitics 0:20:09.920 --> 0:20:12.480 and how he's thinking about dealing with some of the 0:20:12.480 --> 0:20:14.920 wars that we find ourselves in the midst of today. 0:20:14.760 --> 0:20:16.080 For the economy itself. 0:20:16.119 --> 0:20:17.280 Do you think it really is going to make a 0:20:17.280 --> 0:20:20.080 difference if President Trump is if he's the Republican nominee 0:20:20.080 --> 0:20:23.080 it gets selected, or President Biden is the Democratic nominee 0:20:23.080 --> 0:20:25.480 he's selected, who either one. Would it make a big 0:20:25.480 --> 0:20:27.560 difference for the economy in the next year or so 0:20:28.040 --> 0:20:30.879 if either one is the president or the economy. 0:20:30.560 --> 0:20:31.600 Is going to do what it's going to do. 0:20:31.800 --> 0:20:36.000 You know, I do think leadership matters enormously in everything 0:20:36.000 --> 0:20:41.119 from the economy to geopolitics, and I hope we're going 0:20:41.160 --> 0:20:44.480