1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:06,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordernt. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,919 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:36,959 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We'll begin this out 10 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:39,360 Speaker 2: with stock sliding as the tech route deepens. Peter Cheer 11 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 2: of Academy writing is the cost of using AI rising 12 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:45,560 Speaker 2: even faster than the benefits. The growing angst is something 13 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:48,839 Speaker 2: companies need to aggressively address before it becomes a problem. 14 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:51,199 Speaker 2: Pete joins us now from more Peak and Mornic. You 15 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:53,559 Speaker 2: wrote that coming into this month, and already this month 16 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 2: things are shifting pretty quickly. I've got to ask the question, 17 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 2: if were capacively constrained, why is SpaceX, what is matter 18 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 2: have excess capacity? 19 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 3: It is strange here. We just went through three headlines, 20 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 3: all of which certainly could have negative connotations for this industry. 21 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:08,319 Speaker 3: I don't think we've had a day like that, right, 22 00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 3: there's clearly positive interpretations of all these, but I think 23 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 3: it does bring that question have we overbuilt? It reminds 24 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 3: me again we talked about this a couple of years ago, 25 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:17,960 Speaker 3: and we haven't had a strong opinion on it. But 26 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 3: the fiber industry, right, fiber built out everywhere. Then we 27 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 3: had excess fiber for a number of years. So you know, 28 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 3: it's this every small little agentic AI startup, meeting and 29 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 3: willing to pay for compute so they can ipo. It's 30 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 3: hard to tell, but this feels like that some of 31 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:35,440 Speaker 3: this kind of circular narratives starting to break apart. 32 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 2: So one trade, one big trade that developed more recently 33 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 2: over the last few months, was to get long the 34 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 2: campex takers and get shot some of the hyperscalers. So 35 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 2: the trade about to flip. 36 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:45,520 Speaker 4: Whoo. 37 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 3: You know, I feel maybe everything kind of slides for 38 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:50,279 Speaker 3: a little bit. Right, Everything's kind of been pretty highly valued. 39 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 3: We've been building out. It's we've had this kind of 40 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,559 Speaker 3: almost two tier economy, right, the AI build out, everything 41 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 3: associated with the AI build out and everything else and 42 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 3: everything else is doing okay, build those been driving things. 43 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 3: Maybe people start to question that again, there's been all 44 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 3: sorts of debt issues. People are you know, it's come 45 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 3: to the markets come well, people want it. But are 46 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:11,799 Speaker 3: we hitting that point where people say, let's see how 47 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 3: this actually plays out again? I think everyone right now 48 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 3: when I go to conferences we talk to people, no 49 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 3: one wants to hear about AI. Generically they want to 50 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 3: hear what's your use case, what have you done with it? 51 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 3: What have you been successful with it? They want case studies. 52 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 3: And it tells me I think we're all going through 53 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:28,160 Speaker 3: this sort of process where here we're using it. Here 54 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 3: we're now getting our bill for our tokens? Did I 55 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 3: get enough value for that tokens? And that's a very 56 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 3: different conversation than this time last year where everything was 57 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 3: kind of free right, you could play around with it, 58 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 3: it was very cheap. I think this is kind of 59 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:42,359 Speaker 3: where the rubber hits the road and meets the road 60 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 3: and are we getting enough? And do we see a 61 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:45,760 Speaker 3: slowdown in AI spending? 62 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:48,359 Speaker 1: Are you surprised that equity investors are pushing back more 63 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:49,240 Speaker 1: than debt investors? 64 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:52,720 Speaker 3: Not really. I think these companies have such large market 65 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 3: caps such potential that credits so well protected, and again 66 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 3: credit's looking for you know, we've been so dull in credit. 67 00:02:58,680 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 5: It's I used to talk about this all the. 68 00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 3: Time, right, you know, these CDX indicies, the Bloomberg, you know, 69 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:05,680 Speaker 3: corporate oas spread, it barely moves anymore. So I think 70 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 3: anything that gives excess potential returns is you know, taking in. 71 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:12,360 Speaker 3: People want that. And I do think what we're seeing 72 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 3: is people across the globefer US corporate credit to US 73 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 3: government debts. So I think US government debts become very 74 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 3: generic corporate credit with the extra spreads. That's interesting, and 75 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 3: it's the only place to get that is US for tech. 76 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 1: Just to be contrarian, if I'm hearing you talk, I 77 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:29,639 Speaker 1: would say, well, that means that the thesis is still intact. 78 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 1: It's just sort of a question around volatility in a 79 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 1: summer after a lot of gains and pulling back just 80 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 1: a little bit as people get nervous, which is a 81 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 1: positive thing, frankly, and it should make you actually more excited. 82 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:40,960 Speaker 1: Why doesn't it make you more excited to think that 83 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 1: there is some discernment. These are three separate stories, all 84 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 1: talking about pressuring prices lower as demand continues to increase 85 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 1: by pretty much all accounts. 86 00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 3: Well, I think everyone's been very nervous about the valuation side, 87 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 3: and I think you know, the cost me shows this again. 88 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 3: There's so many structured products out there linked to these 89 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 3: names that when you know, buying togets buying, and unfortunately 90 00:03:57,240 --> 00:03:58,000 Speaker 3: selling begets selling. 91 00:03:58,120 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 1: Right. 92 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 3: We have so many leverage each the triple socks, leverye 93 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 3: GTF right, when those go up, they put extra pressure 94 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:06,080 Speaker 3: and no one wants to talk about that. Everyone, No, 95 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 3: it's my decision. 96 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 1: To buy these. 97 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 3: There's a lot of pressure coming from zero data expiration options, 98 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 3: all these leverage gtfs, and unfortunately it works in reverse. 99 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:14,640 Speaker 5: Right the last two days. 100 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:16,520 Speaker 3: We haven't seen yet today how it'll play out, but 101 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 3: we seem about ridiculously well on the month end close. 102 00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 3: Then yesterday seem a particularly week on nothing. So I 103 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:26,479 Speaker 3: feel like the market structure is very weak. There's not 104 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 3: the depth of liquidity people need. And if you really 105 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 3: start seeing hedge funds or faster money say hey, this 106 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 3: trade's over, I think there's more selling pressure because that 107 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:36,840 Speaker 3: liquidy is not true and it hits these other products. 108 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:39,320 Speaker 4: But in the short term, is this a buying opportunity. 109 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 3: I want to wait a little bit. I want to 110 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:43,479 Speaker 3: see where this plays out again. These valuations have gone 111 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:45,719 Speaker 3: phenomenally high, and maybe you want to start looking at 112 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 3: who are some of the companies that you know have 113 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:49,839 Speaker 3: maybe been blamed for spending too much and might pull 114 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 3: back and maybe you see that stock price come back 115 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 3: right agin. You know, we used to talk about the 116 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:56,839 Speaker 3: debt diet where companies kind of get restricted and they 117 00:04:56,920 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 3: did something to take care of their debt. We're not 118 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:00,799 Speaker 3: seeing that yet, but maybe you start seeing a different narrative. 119 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 3: Right this is the first time kind of wake up 120 00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:04,479 Speaker 3: in the morning like we need to spend and the 121 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:06,799 Speaker 3: only problem we could have is not building enough compute. 122 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:09,119 Speaker 3: That doesn't necessarily sound like that's today's problem. 123 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 2: At least I mentioned it. The big signal, the instructive 124 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 2: signal coming from the market. Mets rallied had a really 125 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:16,120 Speaker 2: nice day, and you wanted the c suite over at 126 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:18,280 Speaker 2: say Microsoft pays attention and says, you know what, I'll 127 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 2: have some of that. The issue is and you alluded 128 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 2: to it. It's not just the market story. We've got 129 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 2: an economic story as well. The market story increasingly becoming 130 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:28,400 Speaker 2: one trait and the economy increasingly firing on one engine. 131 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:30,680 Speaker 2: If they start pulling back on spending, do we have 132 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 2: a macro risk starting to build hit I think so. 133 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 3: I think that would certainly hurt the economy. It would 134 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 3: hurt the growth that we have and the flip side 135 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 3: of this, And I'll talk maybe a little bit about 136 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:40,520 Speaker 3: the open EIE story where you're talking about One of 137 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:43,359 Speaker 3: the risks that we've said is that the AI industry 138 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:44,919 Speaker 3: has not done a really good job. I think in 139 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 3: community outreach right, they haven't gone a good job convincing 140 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 3: people A it's important for national security. B it's good 141 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 3: for your community if we build a data center AI 142 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 3: near you. I think they have to get back on track. 143 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:57,479 Speaker 3: And some of this is open AI and you start looking. 144 00:05:57,520 --> 00:05:59,080 Speaker 3: I think it was Utah, one of the people who 145 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 3: lost recent election blame that their support for the data 146 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 3: center cost them that. So I think this is becoming 147 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:08,039 Speaker 3: a political issue and I could see things where you 148 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 3: start seeing politicians run on. 149 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 5: Or we're going to tax the AI. 150 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 3: We're going to tax this. I don't know how they 151 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:14,160 Speaker 3: would do it, but it doesn't really matter. I think 152 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 3: that momentum is building and far faster than I would 153 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:18,240 Speaker 3: have expected. I would have expected that to be a 154 00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 3: twenty twenty eight issue. It feels like some politicians are 155 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:23,599 Speaker 3: going to be savvy and catch this mood. And I 156 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 3: think the AI industry has to get out in front 157 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:27,160 Speaker 3: of it better than they've done. It's really got to 158 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 3: be like the energy industry other things, community outreach, explaining 159 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 3: their story. 160 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:33,280 Speaker 4: Better stay with us. 161 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:46,240 Speaker 2: More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this Premister of JP 162 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:48,279 Speaker 2: Morgan writing, it will be important to look under the 163 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:50,760 Speaker 2: hood and which sanctory is striving jobs to see if 164 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:53,640 Speaker 2: the pace of job creation is broadening and or becoming 165 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 2: a source of inflation. Prayer joins is now for more Preyer, 166 00:06:57,120 --> 00:07:00,720 Speaker 2: Good morning, Larning. What did the early endicated is suggest So, I. 167 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:03,480 Speaker 5: Would say it's it's still not really the labor. 168 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 6: Market doesn't seem to be a source of inflation here. 169 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:08,919 Speaker 6: You know, we're looking at wage wage numbers, they're not 170 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 6: really picking up. The unemployment rate hasn't been falling. We're 171 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 6: in this low higher low fire economy. There's a massive 172 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 6: AI trade, you know, there's this sort of case shaped consumer, 173 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 6: so you know, but we've had a very resilient economy 174 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 6: and we've had. We've had lots of shocks, you know, 175 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:30,680 Speaker 6: between the oil shock, between tariffs, between five hundred basements 176 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 6: of rate hikes, and the economy has been resilient. So 177 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 6: I think the big question you were just talking about 178 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 6: the shifting narrative. I think there's also a shifting narrative 179 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 6: in the macro you know world. There is the labor 180 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 6: market reaccelerating. You know, we've had three months of solid growth. 181 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:48,200 Speaker 6: We at the point where the labor markets about to 182 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 6: take off. The growth is broadening out. If it's broadening out, 183 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 6: then we should be talking about a higher neutral rate. 184 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 5: We should be. 185 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 6: Talking about federate hikes. We're not convinced we're there. I mean, 186 00:07:58,120 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 6: we're expecting some slo but you have to look on 187 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 6: the herd. I would push back. I think the labor 188 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 6: market's extremely important. 189 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:04,200 Speaker 5: I know, if you just. 190 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:07,280 Speaker 6: Watch chair wash, you might say it's all about inflation, 191 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 6: it's about trend inflation. He's actually actually opening the door here. 192 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 5: For we may need to look at more data. 193 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 6: We may need to look at that trend number, and 194 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:18,240 Speaker 6: that's where the labor market comes in. So watch under 195 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 6: the hood, is the still really. 196 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 5: AI and sort of these secular things. 197 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 6: We're all getting older, so you know, if it's all healthcare, 198 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 6: I wouldn't say that that's a source of inflation. Do 199 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 6: we see broad based, you know, job growth. I think 200 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:32,720 Speaker 6: then we would say hikes should be really. 201 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 5: On the data. 202 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:34,079 Speaker 2: Did you think it close to that? 203 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 6: I don't see that. I still see hiring trends remaining low. 204 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 6: You know, we look at all sorts of whether you 205 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:42,640 Speaker 6: look at consumers, So if I'm in the market looking 206 00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:45,560 Speaker 6: for a job, those numbers a week, so centiment numbers 207 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:45,880 Speaker 6: a week. 208 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 5: If I look at companies, what are you doing with 209 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 5: all the money you're raising. 210 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 6: Capex, I still don't hear hiring, So I don't think 211 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 6: we're there. I mean, let's see, the numbers are noisy, 212 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:57,200 Speaker 6: so you can always get that world Cup effect in 213 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 6: a high number. 214 00:08:58,080 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 5: But if it's all. 215 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:01,960 Speaker 6: Leisure, hospitality, if it's healthcare, I'm not convinced that we're 216 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:04,600 Speaker 6: at the point where the labor market's about to take off. 217 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 6: But I think that's the key question, especially as we 218 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 6: sort of contemplate rate hikes in a no forward guidance 219 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:12,560 Speaker 6: or no framework guidance world. 220 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:14,679 Speaker 1: You know what's interesting is in the ADP report, it 221 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:17,079 Speaker 1: wasn't coming as much from leisure in hospitality. I don't 222 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:19,679 Speaker 1: know we can read into it from that. How much 223 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 1: will it matter to you if suddenly we see people 224 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 1: being hired to build out data centers, to do construction work, 225 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:29,439 Speaker 1: to do some of the highly technical mechanics. I mean, 226 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,560 Speaker 1: how much do those jobs give you a sense of 227 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 1: positivity or not? Is that a broadening out or is 228 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 1: that the same trade? 229 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 6: If you just show me it's construction and it's really 230 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:40,679 Speaker 6: non residential. 231 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 5: Constructions, that's data center. 232 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 6: I don't know if I would be convinced that this 233 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 6: is broadening out, it would be good. 234 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:46,080 Speaker 5: Every job is good. 235 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:49,200 Speaker 6: But is that a source of inflation that the FED 236 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 6: might want to clamp down or you know, in this 237 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:54,199 Speaker 6: focus on price stability we need to push back again. 238 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 6: I guess that's what we'll be watching. And do you 239 00:09:57,240 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 6: see that showing up and spending? Look at personal conssumption 240 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:03,800 Speaker 6: this year. I mean, despite the resilience, personal consumption is 241 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:06,959 Speaker 6: actually slowing. So I'd like to see the broadening out 242 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:10,280 Speaker 6: of the job gains as well as personal consumption picking up, 243 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 6: not just the upper part of the KY, but some 244 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:15,679 Speaker 6: broadening out as oil prices decline, do we see that 245 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:18,240 Speaker 6: tailwind for the consumer, and then you know, that might 246 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:20,200 Speaker 6: make us more positive thing that the FED may have 247 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,000 Speaker 6: to raise rates. And then I think the market's going 248 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:24,960 Speaker 6: to struggle it because how much are we talking about 249 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:25,680 Speaker 6: raising rates? 250 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:27,080 Speaker 5: You know, because without. 251 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 6: Forward guidance, is it just a mid cycle adjustment? Is 252 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:32,640 Speaker 6: it risk management hikes or is this a hiking cycle. 253 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 6: I think the market narrative will shift. I'm not even 254 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:36,880 Speaker 6: sure risk assets will love that. 255 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:38,479 Speaker 5: I mean the rates market. 256 00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 6: Will price in some risk premium or rate hikes, but 257 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:44,079 Speaker 6: I think you will need to see that consumption along 258 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 6: with the broadening out of job gains to get there. 259 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 1: Is there anything I'm going to ask you the question 260 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 1: that we were talking about with Mark TNONI, is there 261 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 1: anything you could see in this labor market report that 262 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 1: could put to lie and play? 263 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 5: Oh, wages? 264 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:58,120 Speaker 6: If we see a pickup in wages and I would 265 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:00,199 Speaker 6: like to see that along with you know, no sort 266 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:03,319 Speaker 6: of seasonal impact or this is just driven by one sector, 267 00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 6: then I think July, you know the market's going to 268 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 6: price in this risk premium now that I think we 269 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 6: all have to get used to higher risk premiums, you know. 270 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:13,840 Speaker 5: Chairwah stays of the market is a pure way to 271 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 5: see it. 272 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 6: But if you're not sure of the reaction function, you're 273 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:19,920 Speaker 6: not sure what is that trigger point for the Fed 274 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:22,120 Speaker 6: to actually raise rates, then at that point you're going 275 00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 6: to price in that you know, some decent chance of 276 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 6: a July hike, So wages hours worked broadening out, and 277 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 6: then of course we have CPI in two weeks, so 278 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:33,679 Speaker 6: we'll be watching that. If you see core services starting 279 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:36,880 Speaker 6: to pick up and it's not just software, but it's 280 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 6: actually broader, you know, every service that we spend, then 281 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:43,319 Speaker 6: that will be a sign that maybe the inflation pressures 282 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 6: are not just oil, because we know headline inflation is 283 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 6: going to be negative, I mean most likely month over month. 284 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 5: But if it's broadening. 285 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:51,959 Speaker 6: Out, I think then the Fed will sort of tell 286 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:54,480 Speaker 6: us that they're getting a little impatient with being abuff 287 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:55,560 Speaker 6: target for this long. 288 00:11:55,800 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 5: I think the market then brings July in play. 289 00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 4: Does this metastory actually help them, because Kevin wash almost 290 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 4: yesterday admitted that AI is inflationary in the short term. 291 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 5: I'm glad you bring that up. 292 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:10,880 Speaker 6: I mean, I think Kevin WASH's he said it a 293 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 6: little bit in the press conference, and he brought it 294 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 6: up again yesterday. I think the FED it's easy for 295 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:18,400 Speaker 6: us to see the demand side of AI. It's showing 296 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 6: up in data centers, showing up in software prices. The 297 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 6: supply side is unknown, you know. I go back to 298 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:26,120 Speaker 6: the nineties. It took a long time to show up 299 00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 6: in the productivity data. Jair Walsh is bringing that up. 300 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:32,680 Speaker 6: He brought it up again yesterday. So I don't know 301 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:34,520 Speaker 6: if it's the metal story or a broader but if 302 00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 6: there's a sense that you know, the pricing power aspect 303 00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:40,560 Speaker 6: is there, but you're seeing the pickup in productivity, you 304 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:41,959 Speaker 6: don't need to kill growth. 305 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 5: Then you don't have that cruel. 306 00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:45,520 Speaker 6: Choice to make productivity is picking up. 307 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 5: This is something we were debating. 308 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:50,439 Speaker 6: We just had a quarterly you know, meeting for fixed 309 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:52,680 Speaker 6: income last week and we were debating the expansion is 310 00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 6: there we feel good about the expansion. 311 00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:59,080 Speaker 5: Is it productivity leading or is it? Is it inflationary? 312 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:01,960 Speaker 6: And that has him locations across asset class. I think 313 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:04,199 Speaker 6: we're more in the productivity can but we have to see. 314 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 5: That in the data. 315 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:08,640 Speaker 6: And I think wages, hours, all of these consumption would 316 00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 6: be one source of that. 317 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 2: Oh, let's go there. If we get a meta shift 318 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:13,679 Speaker 2: is that ambullish development for bonds. 319 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:16,320 Speaker 6: And I think bonds actually look good. I don't want 320 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 6: to talk my book. 321 00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 5: But you have the income. 322 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:22,000 Speaker 6: Look at the income you're getting in fixed income, and 323 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 6: I will highlight how much I mean, income's back. 324 00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:28,160 Speaker 5: Really, yields are positive. You've had thirty percent. 325 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:31,360 Speaker 6: Higher investment grate corporate supply this year, and spreads have 326 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:35,960 Speaker 6: been remarkably stable. So people are voting with flows. They're 327 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 6: looking at all in yields of six percent, and you know, 328 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:41,199 Speaker 6: you look under the hood, there's a lot of dispersion 329 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:45,560 Speaker 6: high yield investment grade. We can get high quality investment 330 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:48,360 Speaker 6: grade paper close to six percent. So I think fixed 331 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:50,920 Speaker 6: income I would generally say that there's a case to 332 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 6: be made. I think if this is just a I mean, 333 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:56,120 Speaker 6: I would argue, look at the economy. 334 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 5: It's a lot of it is AI driven. So if 335 00:13:58,520 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 5: some air is coming out. 336 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 6: Of that building, maybe people are going to say, Okay, 337 00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:02,920 Speaker 6: I'd like to see broadening out. 338 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:05,359 Speaker 5: If I'm not convinced, maybe Barnes. 339 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 6: Risk adjusted yields, you're giving me six percent, that looks attractive. 340 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 5: So short a long answer to your question, yes, but. 341 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:14,560 Speaker 6: I would say it's attractive even here, and that's why 342 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:16,080 Speaker 6: we're seeing the influenced. 343 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 2: Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. 344 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 2: So we got the job's number just miments ago, who 345 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 2: came at fifty seven k. The estimate our survey was 346 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:38,000 Speaker 2: one thirteen the previous number. Revised down. The unemployment rate 347 00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 2: for a bunch of reasons. We'll spend some time on 348 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:42,200 Speaker 2: that dropped back from four point three percent to four 349 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 2: point two with this runner table. Stephanie Ratha Wolf Research, Stephanie, 350 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 2: good morning. 351 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 5: Good morning. 352 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:48,760 Speaker 2: What would you put waste on this morning looking at 353 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:49,320 Speaker 2: this report? 354 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 7: Yeah, and I think the main message from the report 355 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 7: is perils had been overstated to some extent in the 356 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 7: recent prints. We're sitting in a labor market that's largely 357 00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 7: in balance. 358 00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 4: The unemployment rate. 359 00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 7: Yes, it took down, but realistically, you know, the household 360 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 7: and the establishment surveys have been telling you slightly different signals. 361 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 5: It kind of makes sense. 362 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 7: It tells you the labor market is fine. There's no 363 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:10,360 Speaker 7: real concern, certainly no urgency for the Fed to be hiking, 364 00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:13,080 Speaker 7: and that buys them time. The longer that they have 365 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 7: to buy time. By that point, inflation will be slowing 366 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 7: down a bit and that will probably allow them to 367 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:18,880 Speaker 7: stay on hold. 368 00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 2: If the chairman used the word to describe this particular 369 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 2: jobs market, he said it was steady. Would you call 370 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:25,360 Speaker 2: it steady the lamb of market? 371 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:26,720 Speaker 4: I think that's exactly. 372 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:28,960 Speaker 7: Right, And I mean there's been a lot of volatility 373 00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:32,000 Speaker 7: in the actual data itself. It seemed odd the extent 374 00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 7: of which payrolls had been running significantly above anyone's estimates 375 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 7: of breaking even for many months, and you weren't really 376 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:40,880 Speaker 7: seeing wages pick up. You weren't seeing it confirmed. That 377 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:43,400 Speaker 7: extent of the tightness confirmed in other surveys. So it 378 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 7: kind of suggests that payrolls had been overstated to some extent. 379 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 7: If you look at the birth death adjustment for this month, 380 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 7: that was a little bit lower than it was last 381 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 7: year at this time, So perhaps that is just adding 382 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 7: to some of the volatility. 383 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:56,720 Speaker 5: It made it a little bit lower than would otherwise 384 00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 5: be the case. 385 00:15:57,280 --> 00:16:00,360 Speaker 1: I remember speaking with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daily 386 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 1: about a year ago, and she said that typically at 387 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:06,560 Speaker 1: turning points to the economy, you can get this churn, 388 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 1: this lack of clarity in the labor market. 389 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 5: It feels like that churn has. 390 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 1: Continued for a really long time, even though usually it 391 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:15,800 Speaker 1: does tend to tip one way or another. 392 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:17,360 Speaker 5: Are we looking at it wrong? 393 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 1: Is there something else that's happening here, some evolution, some 394 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 1: sort of shift in terms of the emphasis going forward 395 00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:27,360 Speaker 1: that we can glean from these successive labor market reports. 396 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:29,800 Speaker 7: I think what we've learned is, certainly there's a lot 397 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 7: of volatility, a lot of surprises. Of course, this time 398 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:34,160 Speaker 7: the surprise has been on the negative side, and the 399 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 7: prior months it's been on the positive side. Realistically, there's 400 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:38,280 Speaker 7: ault somewhere in the middle where lad market seems to 401 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 7: be in pretty good balance. It's running probably close to 402 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 7: break even, whatever your estimate may be of that. Our 403 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:47,240 Speaker 7: estimate is around seventy five thousand, So our estimate is 404 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 7: that you're probably just in a pretty good balance. The 405 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 7: economy is in a decent spot, and the inflationary pressures 406 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 7: don't seem to be generated from. 407 00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 5: The labor market. 408 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 7: It seems to be generated else elsewhere, in which case 409 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:59,240 Speaker 7: that should roll off. We expect about one hundred basis 410 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:02,200 Speaker 7: points off core PC by the end of twenty twenty seven, 411 00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:03,440 Speaker 7: but it'll take a little bit of time. 412 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:06,480 Speaker 1: The market doesn't do well with remaining on hold. Usually 413 00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:08,639 Speaker 1: people are saying, Okay, which direction are you moving in? 414 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:10,400 Speaker 1: Which is the reason why there's a subsession of what's 415 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:11,760 Speaker 1: the next move for the federal reserve? 416 00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:12,720 Speaker 4: Rates up or. 417 00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 1: Rates down, partly because people want momentum. But are we 418 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:17,760 Speaker 1: really looking at is that we are at neutral and 419 00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 1: that essentially this rate is allowing the economy to kind 420 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:24,040 Speaker 1: of muddle through whatever technological transformation is underway. 421 00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:25,360 Speaker 4: I think that's probably right. 422 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,640 Speaker 7: And by the way, the technological transformation doesn't really depend 423 00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 7: on the level of interest rates today, because that's going 424 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:33,000 Speaker 7: to happen regardless of whether rates are plus or minus 425 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:35,679 Speaker 7: twenty five basis points from here. So realistically we're in 426 00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:40,240 Speaker 7: an environment where interest rates are largely neutral. Of course, 427 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 7: that are parts of the economy that it feels restrictive. 428 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 7: Is certainly wors should talk about in terms of housing, 429 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 7: but generally speaking, it seems to be in a pretty 430 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 7: good place. Consumers are spending fairly well. It's been a decent, 431 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:54,120 Speaker 7: call it two percent trend in spending. It's an economy 432 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:56,800 Speaker 7: that is in pretty decent balance, and I think that 433 00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:58,760 Speaker 7: will continue through much of the summer and the rest 434 00:17:58,800 --> 00:17:59,120 Speaker 7: of the year. 435 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 4: What about the participate rate falling by three tens percent. 436 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:04,440 Speaker 5: My guess is a lot of it is noise. 437 00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 7: To some extent. The housefolds are is notoriously volatile. By 438 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:11,200 Speaker 7: falling by three tens is a big move. Seven hundred 439 00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:14,520 Speaker 7: thousand people like we tend to get a lot of 440 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:16,720 Speaker 7: volatility in that report. And my expectation is in the 441 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:18,360 Speaker 7: next print you will see it rebound. 442 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:20,520 Speaker 4: What about revisions make you nervous or no. 443 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 7: No, it makes me feel better because it didn't make 444 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 7: sense of how strong the labor market is relative to 445 00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 7: anybody's expectation of break even, So, you know, seeing some 446 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:35,199 Speaker 7: revisions to the prior months that seemed stronger than what 447 00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:37,480 Speaker 7: made sense I think, you know, it makes me feel 448 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:39,879 Speaker 7: better about sort of the data and the trajectory, and 449 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 7: it makes a little bit more sense relative to where 450 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 7: other indicators are. 451 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:47,760 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Sevendics podcast, bringing you the best 452 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:51,160 Speaker 2: in markets, economics, antient politics. You can watch the show 453 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:54,159 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am to 454 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:58,040 Speaker 2: nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify 455 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen ways on the Bloomberg terminal 456 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 2: and the Bloomberg bused this out. 457 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:07,400 Speaker 3: Mm hmm