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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff give.

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Speaker 3: You, guys, the best independent coverage that is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,

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Speaker 2: let's get to the show.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to Counterpoints.

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Speaker 4: I was going to use my favorite joke, which is

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Speaker 4: I'm joined by Ryan Grimm, but I think I've used

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Speaker 4: it way too many times.

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Speaker 1: Anny thing is, I feel like Ryan Grimm does have

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Speaker 1: more doppelgangers than literally anyone I've ever known on the planet,

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Speaker 1: like really like dead on ringers for him. But I

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Speaker 1: am probably not one of them. Probably not.

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Speaker 4: We let the audience part and Ryan does have that top,

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Speaker 4: but he doesn't usually wear it.

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Speaker 1: Actually, we're going to talk about not on the show.

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Speaker 3: We will talk about this at in the show. We're

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Speaker 3: going to talk about men today. Yes, one block you

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Speaker 3: can see it on the screen. That's just men.

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Speaker 1: Yes, So a lot of good stuff in the show today.

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Speaker 1: We have some Supreme Court rulings that we're going to

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Speaker 1: break down for you, a couple of which are really

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Speaker 1: quite significant. We'll ProView for you. What else is coming up.

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Speaker 1: We've got some big GOP moves with regard to the

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Speaker 1: border and immigration, and a little bit of a retrospective

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Speaker 1: on how the Republican Party has shifted in the Trump era,

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Speaker 1: so that'll be interesting. Also, a big old twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: four blooper from one of the new entrants into the

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Speaker 1: GPE is this is a bad one. This is a

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Speaker 1: really bad one. So we'll play that for you. The

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Speaker 1: aforementioned study on men, Emily and I being that it's

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Speaker 1: you know, the Ladies Show today, we've found this study

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Speaker 1: really interesting. It's about men their level of sensitivity, how

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Speaker 1: often they cry in a month. There's a survey that

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Speaker 1: actually says men cry more often than women. So we'll

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Speaker 1: tell you what we think about all of that. And

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Speaker 1: there is a new report breaking down what supposedly happened

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Speaker 1: in terms of Epstein's uote unquote suicide. We have those

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Speaker 1: details where you. Emily is taking a look at some

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Speaker 1: new comments from Bluce Cheney. I am taking a look

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Speaker 1: at a potentially cataclysmic crash in the commercial real estate market.

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Speaker 1: So a lot of good stuff to get into this morning.

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Speaker 4: That's right, and we're eagerly awaiting as we sit here

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Speaker 4: right now some Supreme Court results that could I think

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Speaker 4: I have really dramatic consequences for the country. But we're

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Speaker 4: going to start with some results from yesterday that actually

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Speaker 4: already have dramatic results for the country.

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Speaker 3: So Crystal, this is in the case of More v. Harper.

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Speaker 1: Yep. So guys, go ahead and put this first one

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Speaker 1: up on the screen. That's from more Perfect Union. In

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Speaker 1: a six to three decision, Supreme Court decides More v.

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Speaker 1: Harper and rejects the so called independent state legislature theory.

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you in a minute what that is, which

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Speaker 1: claims state legislators have total authority over elections. This ruling

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Speaker 1: ensures that courts can still strike down state election laws

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Speaker 1: and maps. So here's the back story. There was a

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Speaker 1: dispute between the North Carolina legislature, which at that time

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Speaker 1: was and still is dominated by Republicans, and the North

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Speaker 1: Carolina state courts, which had more of a liberal bent.

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Speaker 1: The court said, the maps you drew, the jerrymandered maps

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Speaker 1: you drew, these are wrong. These are unconstitutional, and the

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Speaker 1: legislature argued, and this is the case that went all

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Speaker 1: the way up to the Supreme Court, that you don't

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Speaker 1: get to have a say in this. There's this clause

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Speaker 1: in the Constitution that says it's up to us, the

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Speaker 1: state legislature, to determine everything with regard to elections, So

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Speaker 1: you don't get to have a say in this. This

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Speaker 1: theory has been kind of fringe. It's been floated for

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Speaker 1: a while, but the Supreme Court has never affirmed. It

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Speaker 1: came up in the context of actually Bush vy.

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Speaker 3: Gore.

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Speaker 1: There were some dissenting opinions that made reference to this

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Speaker 1: theory and gave it a little bit of credence. But

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Speaker 1: the Court yesterday pretty clearly saying we don't agree with that,

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Speaker 1: and that this really goes to the core of what

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Speaker 1: judicial review even is. They mentioned Marbury versus Madison in

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Speaker 1: the decision. Here is seminal case that established that federal

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Speaker 1: courts can strike down laws. It basically established judicial review.

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Speaker 1: And they're like, so, yes, we think that courts have

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Speaker 1: power and jurisdiction over this, and the fact that it's

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Speaker 1: mentioned in the Constitution that state legislators have power doesn't

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Speaker 1: mean that they have free reign to do whatever they want.

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Speaker 1: This became really important Emily, as you know, because this

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Speaker 1: was one of the theories that was floated in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty by people who wanted to hand the election to

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Speaker 1: Trump even though he had lost. So in a state

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Speaker 1: like Georgia, the argument was, sure, voters might have voted

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Speaker 1: for Biden, although they don't really accept that, but maybe

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Speaker 1: they voted for Biden. But the legislature, since is packed

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Speaker 1: with Republicans, they can pick whatever electors they want. They

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Speaker 1: don't actually have to listen to the will of the people.

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Speaker 1: And one of the theories here was that because the

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Speaker 1: legislator had complete control, they could just discard whatever else

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Speaker 1: had happened and they could pick their electors. So it

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Speaker 1: had far ranging potential consequences here if this one went

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Speaker 1: the other direction. However, it did not, and majority on

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Speaker 1: the court said, now we're not buying it. Courts still

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Speaker 1: have jurisdiction here.

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Speaker 4: Federal elections are one of the most interesting sources of tension,

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Speaker 4: not just on the right, but I think when we

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Speaker 4: talk about what America is, because judicial review obviously is

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Speaker 4: Germane in this case, in this case, but it's also

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Speaker 4: this idea that like the right, at least supports federalism,

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Speaker 4: so the state's ability to determine what's best for its

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Speaker 4: people and for its voting and what that creates is

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Speaker 4: this disastrous patchwork of different election laws. And that's where

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Speaker 4: you have conservatives in some cases saying, well, you actually

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Speaker 4: really need a more robust federal government policy when it

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Speaker 4: comes to election law, because we have this insane patchwork

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Speaker 4: of different laws, which in twenty twenty was a disaster

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Speaker 4: with COVID in particular, that you have very different early

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Speaker 4: voting for instance, you have very different time periods that

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Speaker 4: people are actually going to cast ballots, very different laws

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Speaker 4: for how they cast those ballots depending.

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Speaker 3: On where they live. And you know, maybe that's.

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Speaker 4: The sort of blessing of federalism, or it's the sort

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Speaker 4: of disaster of it. It's a double edged sort of federalism.

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Speaker 4: And this is from Slate. They right in the last

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Speaker 4: part of his majority opinion. That's Chief Justice John Roberts

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Speaker 4: who wrote the majority here. He got the liberal justices

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Speaker 4: to sign onto a version of judicial review that is

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Speaker 4: going to give the federal courts and especially the Supreme

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Speaker 4: Court itself, the last word in election disputes. The court

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Speaker 4: held that, and this is the quote, state courts may

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Speaker 4: not transgress the ordinary bounds of judicial review such that

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Speaker 4: they arrogate to themselves the power vested in state legislatures

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Speaker 4: to regulate federal elections. And that's just all that right there, Like,

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Speaker 4: that's the not the of the issue.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So put the second element up on the screen,

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Speaker 1: because while they did sort of, you know, they did

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Speaker 1: not accept independent state legislature theory, they did put a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a caveat here and they did give

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Speaker 1: themselves a little bit of wiggle room. So part of

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Speaker 1: what they said in the graphic that's at the top

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Speaker 1: right of the screen. Although we conclude the elections Clause

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Speaker 1: does not exempt state legislators from the ordinary constraints imposed

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Speaker 1: by state laws. State courts do not have free rate.

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Speaker 1: State courts are the appropriate tribunals for the decision of

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Speaker 1: questions arising under their local law, whether statutory or otherwise.

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Speaker 1: They say the case. They at the same time, the

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Speaker 1: elections Clause expressly best power to carry out its provisions

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Speaker 1: in the legislature, so expressly saying there, state courts do

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Speaker 1: not have free reign. So they're saying there may be

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Speaker 1: some limiting principle here if the state courts, in our

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Speaker 1: view as a supreme court, get way on over their

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Speaker 1: skis in terms of rejecting what the state legislature does,

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Speaker 1: but in no way do they define what that limiting

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Speaker 1: principle might be. Now, without getting too much into the weeds,

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Speaker 1: may the facts this may become really relevant really quickly,

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Speaker 1: because there are a number of states where you have

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Speaker 1: a mismatch between the partisan balance of the legislature and

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Speaker 1: the partisan balance of the courts. The primary one people

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Speaker 1: are pointing to Emily is Wisconsin, where you have a

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Speaker 1: Republican legislature, you have a jerrymander that was drawn by Republicans,

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Speaker 1: and you have a state supreme court that I don't

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Speaker 1: know if you guys, just remember there was just a

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Speaker 1: huge election where a liberal was elected like a you know,

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Speaker 1: very clear, and ran as a liberal and this actually

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Speaker 1: jerrymandered lines was one of the things that she ran on.

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Speaker 1: And so you're likely to have the same dispute. You

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Speaker 1: actually already have this dispute between the Wisconsin State Supreme

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Speaker 1: Court and the Wisconsin legislature.

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Speaker 3: So is the.

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Speaker 1: Supreme Court going to say, yes, it's within that court's jurisdiction. Yes,

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Speaker 1: it's fine for them to strike down the jerrymandered lines

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Speaker 1: drawn by the Republican legislature. Are they going to use

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Speaker 1: this wiggle room? And they gave themselves to go in

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Speaker 1: the opposite direction when it comes to Wisconsin. A lot

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Speaker 1: of you know, there's a lot of analysis out there

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Speaker 1: that this there's going to be an immediate test to

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Speaker 1: what the sort of limiting principles here are and whether

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Speaker 1: the Court is really giving state courts kind of, you know,

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Speaker 1: an open a blank check to do whatever they want

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Speaker 1: with regard to the jerrymander you know, within the bounds

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Speaker 1: of whatever their judicial process is right.

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Speaker 3: And that's where some people I've seen on the right

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Speaker 3: legal people.

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Speaker 4: I'm reading from Ilia Shapiro right here on Twitter, who's

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Speaker 4: at the Manhattan Institute, And that's where some people are saying, well,

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Speaker 4: Justice sort of pulls back a little bit and has

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Speaker 4: a quote middle of the road decision. He declined to

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Speaker 4: adopt a standard as Ilia rights for determining when state

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Speaker 4: courts cross the line to your point, or even to say.

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Speaker 3: Whether the North Carolina Court did so here, Yeah.

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Speaker 4: This is a ruling that doesn't actually even weigh in

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Speaker 4: on those questions where it could have. And so this

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Speaker 4: is where Ilia says, we basically have to wait until

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Speaker 4: the justices are forced to make that hard balls and

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Speaker 4: strikes call that the Chief Justice referenced at his confirmation hearings,

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Speaker 4: and this decision stops short of doing that. So these

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Speaker 4: questions are now up in the air going forward.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so they haven't really clearly defined where the boundaries

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Speaker 1: of state court power lie and where it that's up

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Speaker 1: against the state legislature. But you know, zooming out from this,

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Speaker 1: the reason people were really watching this closely this particular

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Speaker 1: case was because of what happened in twenty twenty and

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Speaker 1: fears that we could see a repeat of this, especially

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Speaker 1: with Donald Trump very likely the Republican nominee again. And

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Speaker 1: you know, I think it's likely. You can't say one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent, but I think it's likely that they have

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Speaker 1: closed the pathway to them being able to to, you know,

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Speaker 1: a point, a fake elector's slate in a red state

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Speaker 1: like Georgia and just completely overrule the will of the

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Speaker 1: people and do whatever they want if they happen to

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Speaker 1: have a legislature that is pro Trump. So it seems

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Speaker 1: like they've more or less shut the door to that,

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Speaker 1: although they've given themselves a little bit of wiggle room.

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Speaker 1: But you know, this was one of the cases that

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Speaker 1: liberals were really really Concernedive'm frankly, I think everybody should

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Speaker 1: be concerned about, because we do want the will of

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Speaker 1: the people to actually matter in our democracy, and so

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Speaker 1: this is this is one that people should feel fairly

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Speaker 1: good about that it went in the direction of saying like, no,

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Speaker 1: you can't just do any old thing because you happen to, like,

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Speaker 1: you know, one outcome over another outcome.

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Speaker 4: It's so interesting how when we're hitting a fever pitch.

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Speaker 4: I think culturally some of these areas of tension that

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Speaker 4: when you have like more social consensus, like in your

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Speaker 4: constitutional system, start to break down. And I feel like

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Speaker 4: you start to see that kind of first like this

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Speaker 4: is where these mechanisms that work for maybe decades, not certainly,

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Speaker 4: we've had issues with us throughout American history. But it's

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Speaker 4: just a good example of how when we're not getting

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Speaker 4: along as a country, you start to see it show

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Speaker 4: up in some like warning signs like this.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's right. There's another There was another

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Speaker 1: decision yesterday, another ruling that we thought was interesting. Put

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Speaker 1: this next one up on the screen. So the Supreme

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Speaker 1: Court said that a conviction for online threats violated the

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Speaker 1: First Amendment. This is a write up in the Washington Post.

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Speaker 1: The subhad here says prosecutors have to show that a

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Speaker 1: person responsible for threats understood the threatening nature of that speech.

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Speaker 1: So the backstory here, as I understand it, is you

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Speaker 1: had a music artist who was being stalked effectively by

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Speaker 1: this dude who kept sending all these threatening messages. It really,

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Speaker 1: she said, it really impacted her. She was scared for

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Speaker 1: her health and safety. She for a time stopped doing

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Speaker 1: public appearances in public concerts. So impacted her career because

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Speaker 1: she just never knew whether this guy was going to

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Speaker 1: turn up and what he might be capable of doing,

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Speaker 1: et cetera. And so the question here was whether or

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Speaker 1: not you could uphold this conviction for these online threats.

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Speaker 1: And let me give you a taste of what she

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Speaker 1: was being sent here, and she would block his account

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Speaker 1: on Facebook, and then you create a new account and

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Speaker 1: still post these messages, etc. So among the messages that

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Speaker 1: were presented at trial, there was one that said, I'm

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Speaker 1: currently unsupervised I know it freaks me out too, but

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Speaker 1: the possibilities are endless. So listen, no one wants to

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Speaker 1: give that message. That sounds really creepy, but it to

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Speaker 1: me doesn't meet the test of like a direct and

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Speaker 1: specific threat. Another one that said, f off permanently. Another

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Speaker 1: one said you're not being good for human relations. Die

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Speaker 1: don't need you. What the majority decided here in a

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Speaker 1: seven to two ruling, with Elena Kagan writing for the

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Speaker 1: majority and I'm reading the Washington Post now, the court

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Speaker 1: emphasized that true threats of violence are not protected by

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Speaker 1: the First Amendment, of course, but to guard against a

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Speaker 1: chilling effect on non threatening speech, the majority said, states

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Speaker 1: have to prove that a criminal defendant has consciously disregarded

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Speaker 1: a substantial risk that his communications would be viewed as

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Speaker 1: threatening violence. So it's not enough that it is a

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Speaker 1: violent threat, which is not protected by the First Amendment.

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Speaker 1: There also has to be an intentionality around it or

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Speaker 1: a reckless disregard as I'm not sure that's exact language

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Speaker 1: that they use, but that's effectively what they're communicating here,

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Speaker 1: but that there needs to be some sort of understanding

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Speaker 1: of the way that these threats would ultimately be perceived

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Speaker 1: you had Justice Clarence Thomas and Amy Cony Barrett, who

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Speaker 1: wrote the Who Were in the Descent. Barrett wrote that

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Speaker 1: the standard set by the court on Thursday gives quote

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Speaker 1: preferential treatment to a broad range of threatening speech and

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Speaker 1: makes it more difficult for law enforcement to address actual threats.

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Speaker 1: A little bit more from Elena Kagan, she says, our

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Speaker 1: decisions have often insisted on protecting even some historically unprotected

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Speaker 1: speech the adoption of a subjective mental state element. This

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Speaker 1: is writing for the majority. We follow the same path today,

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Speaker 1: holding the state must prove in true threats cases that

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Speaker 1: the defendant had some understanding of his statements threatening character.

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Speaker 1: What do you think of this one?

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Speaker 4: And you know, that's very different than saying you know,

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Speaker 4: to your point, which I think is a good one,

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Speaker 4: whether or not this particular speech met the threshold, whether

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Speaker 4: or not someone knew it as a threat. I think

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Speaker 4: that's probably the more interesting question with those messages, right

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Speaker 4: like is especially now that we live in this online

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Speaker 4: world where people almost feel like they're playing they're seduced

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Speaker 4: into thinking they're playing a video game when they're talking

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Speaker 4: to real human beings.

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Speaker 3: On the other side, because of the way social media functions.

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Speaker 4: I think it's a really interesting question of whether speech

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Speaker 4: where you say die and then you know, but it's

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Speaker 4: not really like I'm going to kill you die constitutes

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Speaker 4: a threat. Like that's to me a more interesting question

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Speaker 4: than whether he knew it was a threat, because I

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Speaker 4: actually kind of tend to side with Barrett and one

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Speaker 4: of the things we should say, like these last two decisions,

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Speaker 4: we've been talking about six three and seven to two, so.

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Speaker 1: They were not just partisan down on the line books.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 4: So you have Justice Roberts writing in the six three decision,

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Speaker 4: and you have just Amy Cony Barrett, and so to

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Speaker 4: Mayor and Gorsach coming together in that really like.

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Speaker 1: That's a beautiful, beautiful, beautiful friendship. Yeah.

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Speaker 4: But I think in this case I am sort of

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Speaker 4: tempted to be with amy Cony Barrett on that because

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Speaker 4: I can envision, especially for people that are are mentally ill,

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Speaker 4: a whole lot of threatening speech, yeah now not being

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Speaker 4: or being protected in ways that it absolutely shouldn't be,

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Speaker 4: because you can make the argument with a good attorney

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Speaker 4: that hey, this person didn't know you, Yeah, they didn't

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Speaker 4: understand this to be threatening because they didn't they lacked

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Speaker 4: the capacity at that particular time.

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Speaker 1: I think that's a fair point. I mean, it's undeniably

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Speaker 1: like it's a subjective judgment. So if you can hire

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Speaker 1: a great if you're wealthy, you can hire a great attorney. Right,

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Speaker 1: they can convince, you know, they can convince a jury

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Speaker 1: that they didn't they didn't even know what they were doing, right,

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Speaker 1: they had no idea the way that this would be

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Speaker 1: perceived as so threatening. Then you potentially, you know, allow

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Speaker 1: an avenue for people to get off the hook for

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Speaker 1: things that really should not be accepted. I tend to

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Speaker 1: go in the other direction, though, just because you know,

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Speaker 1: I think the First Amendment rights are so foundational that

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Speaker 1: I would always err on the side of protecting them

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Speaker 1: more and have more concern about, you know, potentially chilling

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Speaker 1: effect of non threatening speech if you do not have

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Speaker 1: these sorts of bounds in place. So I tend to

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Speaker 1: air more on the side of all right, let's err

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Speaker 1: on the side of free speech. But you know, I

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Speaker 1: think the concern's voice in the dissent are completely legitimate,

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Speaker 1: Like where are the boundaries here? How do you even

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Speaker 1: interpret somebody's subjective intent or what was going on? In

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Speaker 1: their mind. But in some ways, that's the nature of

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Speaker 1: a lot of our laws determined on turn on determining

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Speaker 1: someone's mental state and their intent at the time that

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Speaker 1: a crime was committed.

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Speaker 3: And also, this is how you met Kyle.

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Speaker 1: Well in case you don't know, she who actually documented this,

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Speaker 1: that I was the first one to reach out to him.

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Speaker 1: If anything, it goes with the other direction.

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Speaker 4: That's what the harasser one of my favorite like moner

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Speaker 4: Old tweets. Ever, it's like, ladies, don't be afraid to

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Speaker 4: make the first movement.

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Speaker 1: It's nice to go for it.

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Speaker 3: But I would argue that you didn't know that was

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Speaker 3: a threat at the time.

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Speaker 1: I didn't. Yeah, so I agree with the majority here.

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Speaker 1: I don't think you should be considered that way because

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Speaker 1: I was, you know, out of my mind. I had

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Speaker 1: no idea what I was doing and getting myself into. Clearly,

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Speaker 1: so we are expecting make a heart turn here, We

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Speaker 1: are expecting some other really momentous decisions here, and listen,

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Speaker 1: as much as we expect these are going to go

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Speaker 1: one way, you just never know, right, the justices have

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Speaker 1: already proven themselves to be somewhat unpredictable. So put this

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Speaker 1: last piece up on the screen. Supreme Court's biggest decisions

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Speaker 1: are coming. You know, some of these I think could

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Speaker 1: come down today tomorrow, And I think, Emily that this

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Speaker 1: is the last week when we when we are going

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Speaker 1: to get rulings from the Court, So all of these

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Speaker 1: are still still hanging out there. Big one affirmative action. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: this is per the ap the survival of affirmative action

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Speaker 1: and higher education, subject of two related cases, one involving Harvard,

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Speaker 1: the other University of North Carolina. Supreme Court is previously

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Speaker 1: approved of the use of affirmative action and higher education

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Speaker 1: decisions reaching back to nineteen seventy eight, but the Justice's

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Speaker 1: decision to take the cases suggested a willingness to revisit

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Speaker 1: those rulings. So obviously that's a big one. We're already

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Speaker 1: planning a panel for tomorrow, which by the way, it's

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Speaker 1: going to be me and Emily against tomorrow for breaking points. Becuzacker,

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Speaker 1: as you guys know, is a way for his first

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Speaker 1: of two wedding ceremonies, So we're planning some coverage of

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Speaker 1: that whenever that decision comes down. They also have on

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Speaker 1: the docket student loans. Are they going to uphold President

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Speaker 1: Biden's plan to reduce student loan debt that has been

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Speaker 1: highly contested. There is a potential that the justices decide

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Speaker 1: the challengers lack the right to sue, that they don't

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Speaker 1: have standing, and therefore the plan can still go forward.

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Speaker 1: I think that's the best hope for those who are

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Speaker 1: hoping that that student loan debt relief remains in place.

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Speaker 1: And the challenge with that one is basically like, okay, well,

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Speaker 1: who is actually harmed by this decision? And conservatives have

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Speaker 1: had a hard time coming up with a group that was,

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Speaker 1: you know, legitimately harmed. They went with I believe that

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Speaker 1: this case relates to a student and processor that says like,

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Speaker 1: our fees are being cut and we're being hurt by

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Speaker 1: this decision. But that's a possibility that they could just

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Speaker 1: sort of like punt on this one and say, listen,

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Speaker 1: they don't have standing, so we're not issuing really a

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Speaker 1: ruling at all. Another one here is on gay rights

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Speaker 1: and religious rights and the you know, where's the line here?

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Speaker 1: This one involves a graphic artist in Colorado who is

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Speaker 1: Christian who wants to design wedding websites but does not

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Speaker 1: want to design same sex wedding websites. This has, you know,

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Speaker 1: the gay cake baking thing, very similar kind of dynamics here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I've talked to her.

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Speaker 4: It's basically the exact same thing as Masterpiece and the

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Speaker 4: Washington flower shops.

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Speaker 1: So Taber and I were trying to has this not

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Speaker 1: already been like, didn't they already rule on those what

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Speaker 1: happened there?

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Speaker 3: Yes, But it's just it's so state based.

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Speaker 4: So if your state has a very particular law that

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Speaker 4: can then get sort of stress test intentionally, and in

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Speaker 4: the case of Jack Phillips with Masterpiece Cake, you had

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Speaker 4: LGBT activists intentionally stress testing the laws and making sure

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Speaker 4: that these were cases that were ready for the court. Basically,

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Speaker 4: this is sort of similar and that it's preemptive that

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Speaker 4: Laurie Smith of three or three Creative, who wants to

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Speaker 4: design websites you want basically the state she doesn't think

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Speaker 4: the state law protects her right to refuse to make

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Speaker 4: wedding websites for gay couples a gay wedding, And so

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Speaker 4: it's similar in the sense that it's kind of a

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Speaker 4: preemptive thing where it's going to court and it's kind

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Speaker 4: of intentionally stress testing.

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Speaker 1: Gotcha seeing where exactly the balands of this are, right, okay,

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Speaker 1: all right, so those are the ones where those are

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Speaker 1: some of the big ones that we're watching for. Obviously

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Speaker 1: all of these would be extremely momentous, and you know,

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Speaker 1: we'll be all over and like I said before, we're

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Speaker 1: trying to get together some experts on both sides the

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Speaker 1: formative Action debates so that we can kind of like

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Speaker 1: get into that one tomorrow on breaking points, so make

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Speaker 1: sure you stay tuned for that.

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Speaker 4: I was assigned segment blocks in my favorite order here, which.

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Speaker 3: Is B D.

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Speaker 4: We were talking on the phone yesterday about who's going

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Speaker 4: to start each block, which is like a little inside

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Speaker 4: baseball thing that Sager and Crystal do and Ryan and

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Speaker 4: I probably should do. But I got the B block,

436
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:25,960
Speaker 4: the D block, and the E block, and I had

437
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:26,520
Speaker 4: to make the joke.

438
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 1: So Soger and I are just more like Planny, like

439
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:31,480
Speaker 1: a little more stressy and planning than you guys are,

440
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:33,920
Speaker 1: and you guys a little more alike. You got that

441
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:39,040
Speaker 1: like chill like fish vibe. I guess, did you put a.

442
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:43,320
Speaker 4: Fish water bottle on his idn't obviously what we're gonna

443
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 4: talk about the border.

444
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:45,440
Speaker 3: Actually it's perfect for section.

445
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 4: B, because there's there's a really interesting rolling Stone report,

446
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:51,920
Speaker 4: and we can put B one up on the screen here.

447
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:55,120
Speaker 4: That Stephen Miller, who you are surely familiar with as

448
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 4: one of Trump's big advisors, particularly on the border, particularly

449
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:00,640
Speaker 4: on immigration issues.

450
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,960
Speaker 3: Quote, advocated using US predator drones in.

451
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 4: Twenty eighteen to blow up migrant boats full of unarmed civilians,

452
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 4: according to an upcoming book by.

453
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:13,200
Speaker 3: A former administration official.

454
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 4: Now I'm going to keep reading from this rolling Stone

455
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 4: report because actually this takes us back. I'm almost nostalgic

456
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:22,720
Speaker 4: for the era of the Trump White House leaks, where

457
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:25,239
Speaker 4: you really had to be reading tea leaves to know

458
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:28,720
Speaker 4: exactly what was happening, because there's disagreement.

459
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 3: On whether this actually happened. And the book is from

460
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 3: Miles Taylor, who is again perhaps a familiar name.

461
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:36,879
Speaker 4: If you torture yourself by watching MSNBC enough, you definitely

462
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:37,680
Speaker 4: know Miles Taylor.

463
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:40,879
Speaker 1: I actually forgot about this whole right saga.

464
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,200
Speaker 4: He's the one who said it was a capital a

465
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,919
Speaker 4: anonymous in the New York Times who said, basically, we

466
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:49,720
Speaker 4: are what was at the twenty fifth Amendment right back then,

467
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:53,239
Speaker 4: and people in the Trump administration he was listed as

468
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 4: a senior official.

469
00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:56,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was like we are the dissidents within. I'm

470
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:58,439
Speaker 1: getting the language right, wrong, but that was like the

471
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,880
Speaker 1: basically the vibe. It's like, we're this great dissidents within

472
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:01,880
Speaker 1: the Trump administration.

473
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:05,199
Speaker 4: Right, And Miles Taylor was given cover to write this

474
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 4: by The New York Times as a senior administration official,

475
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:09,840
Speaker 4: and they gave him the anonymous byline as a senior

476
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:10,879
Speaker 4: administration official.

477
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 3: He really was nobody.

478
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:13,879
Speaker 4: I mean, it was an incredible stretch to say he

479
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 4: was a senior administration official. But Rolling Stone continues and

480
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,480
Speaker 4: says they have reviewed written documentation.

481
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:22,119
Speaker 3: From during the Trump administration that supports Taylor's claim.

482
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:25,880
Speaker 4: Taylor's account, however, is contested both by Stephen Miller says

483
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 4: it didn't happen and another person present, who is Paul

484
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 4: Zi Kunft, a since retired admiral who was then commandant

485
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 4: of the US Coast Guard. Reached for comment, he said

486
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 4: he has no recollection of that, and he says, quote,

487
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 4: I vividly recall having a lengthy conversation with Stephen Miller

488
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:44,639
Speaker 4: regarding Southwest border security in twenty eighteen. My point was

489
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 4: that the US is not exerting enough influence in the

490
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 4: form of foreign aid in the tribe border region of

491
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:50,720
Speaker 4: Guatemala and Dora l Salvador.

492
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 3: He goes on to.

493
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 4: Basically say that didn't happen, and we had these conversations,

494
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 4: but there was a different context. But to that point,

495
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:02,360
Speaker 4: let's put this AXE graphic up on the screen. This

496
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:06,639
Speaker 4: is B two GOP presidential field embraces Trump's border wall.

497
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,399
Speaker 4: You have they sort of run the gamut of all

498
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 4: of these different Republican candidates and where they've really kind

499
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 4: of coalesced and become a block when it comes to

500
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 4: immigration policies in the border wall.

501
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:20,680
Speaker 3: And then it.

502
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 4: Gets even We're going to take it even a step

503
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,639
Speaker 4: further here and put B three up on the screen.

504
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:26,399
Speaker 3: This is Reason.

505
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 4: They did something similar to Axios, but actually on a

506
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,679
Speaker 4: very specific question, not just about the wall, not just

507
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 4: about hardline immigration policies. This one is about the Republican

508
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 4: primary consensus for sending the military into Mexico. So Reason says,

509
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,119
Speaker 4: listed in order of their real clear politics pulling average

510
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 4: for the past month, here are the top six twenty

511
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 4: twenty four GOP presidential candidates talking their own words about

512
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,920
Speaker 4: using the US military in Mexico. To fight fentanyl dealing

513
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 4: drug cartels. So the version of twenty sixteen's build the

514
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 4: Wall is going to be sending the troops.

515
00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 3: That's basically how.

516
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 4: This is emerging, and it's a really it's it's become

517
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 4: a really hot debate in conservative circles. So on that note, Crystal,

518
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 4: it's actually very interesting when you have the Heritage Foundation

519
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 4: starting to talk about, for instance, like even the Heritage Foundation,

520
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,480
Speaker 4: long supported by the defense industry, of the tuoe of

521
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:16,879
Speaker 4: millions of dollars, saying we should cut the Pentagon budget

522
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 4: now talking about.

523
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 3: In conservative circles.

524
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:20,679
Speaker 4: I don't know if anyone from Heritage has said this

525
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 4: in particularly in particular, but as you have so many

526
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 4: people on the right to the point where it's leaked

527
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 4: to the Heritage Foundation or trickled into the Heritage Foundation

528
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 4: talking about the Pentagon and excess of spending on the

529
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 4: spending on the Pentagon, forever wars, thinking about starting a

530
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 4: military conflict Mexico.

531
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 1: In Mexico, right, Yes, which is I mean, listen, I

532
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 1: think it's patent Lindsay, and I don't even think it's

533
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 1: a smart idea. If you're worried about fentanyl, et cetera.

534
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 1: I mean, we've been trying the war on drugs for

535
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:50,159
Speaker 1: a long time, hasn't worked out, et cetera. But so's

536
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 1: there's that piece of it. There's the merits of the idea. There's,

537
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 1: as you're pointing out, Emily, there's the hypocrisy or the

538
00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 1: distance between some of the rhetoric. The jew He's you know,

539
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:03,119
Speaker 1: very divided on even using this rhetoric. But some of

540
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:06,359
Speaker 1: the rhetoric that you now hear from Republicans about ending

541
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 1: forever wars about certainly this is used a lot when

542
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 1: it comes to Ukraine and our involvement there, But when

543
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 1: you start talking about China or you start talking about

544
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 1: troops into Mexico, you hear a very very different narrative,

545
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 1: and specifically, like the idea that has been taken up

546
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 1: in mainstream. You've got you know, Tim Scott sounding like this,

547
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 1: You've got Nikki Haley sounding like this. Not to mention

548
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:34,200
Speaker 1: Vekron Swami, Ronda Santis, Donald Trump, etc. Is Hey, let's

549
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:38,480
Speaker 1: use the same justification as the war on terror to

550
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,399
Speaker 1: justify these to label these cartels as terrorists, and then

551
00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 1: to justify military action basically with the blank check. So

552
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 1: any semblance of hey, let's curtail like the war and

553
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 1: terror's gotten out of control. It's been a blank check

554
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,159
Speaker 1: for presidents to do whatever they want around the world.

555
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,439
Speaker 1: When it comes to this issue, then suddenly there's a

556
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 1: very different tone and polar opposite direction. But the other

557
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,159
Speaker 1: thing that just strikes me about this politically, Emily, is

558
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:04,560
Speaker 1: like it just shows you what a totally dominant force

559
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 1: Donald Trump still is in the Republican Party. Because Chris Christy,

560
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 1: Nikki Haley, and some others in twenty sixteen, they actually

561
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 1: were against the border wall. They would make fun of

562
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,440
Speaker 1: Trump for it and say, like this is a preposter.

563
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 1: Site is not going to work. Chris Christy would mock

564
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 1: his voice and like you know, push back on the

565
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 1: idea of the border wall. So even someone who's a

566
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:27,200
Speaker 1: quote unquote moderate like Chris Christy is now accepted like, yow,

567
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 1: we gotta be in favor of the border wall, I guess,

568
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 1: because that's just where the Republican base is now. And

569
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:34,959
Speaker 1: I noted too, you know, Trump had floated when he

570
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:39,400
Speaker 1: was in office, he floated ending birthright citizenship. Ronda Santis

571
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 1: is now picked this up like they're just to me.

572
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 1: It re emphasizes what a you know, what is it,

573
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,679
Speaker 1: eight hundred pound gorilla Trump is in the room that

574
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:51,880
Speaker 1: the idea that he isn't the leader of the Republican

575
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 1: Party is sort of preposterous because even the ones even

576
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 1: like Chris Christy whose whole run is about opposing Trump,

577
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 1: just basically has and in line with him when it

578
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 1: comes to policy. And then the other thing that made

579
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 1: me think of is like, the worst thing about Trump,

580
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,680
Speaker 1: one of the worst things got Trump. Let me couch

581
00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 1: that one of the worst things about Trump in our

582
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 1: politics is the way that it just makes everything centered

583
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 1: around him and where you are put on a political

584
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 1: spectrum versus like in terms of media perception and public perception,

585
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 1: it's just all about how you feel about Donald Trump.

586
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 1: So you can be Brian Kemp in Georgia, who is

587
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 1: really hard right, like this is no squish right, really

588
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 1: hard right in terms of his policies, in terms of

589
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 1: what he's done in office, but because he bucked Trump

590
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 1: on a key issue, he's seen as a quote unquote moderate.

591
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 1: Same thing with you know Christy. Ron DeSantis is actually

592
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 1: a perfect example. The fact that DeSantis is going up

593
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 1: against Trump. He's to the right of Trump on a

594
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 1: variety of issues, but he's still pitched and viewed in

595
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 1: some ways by the public. It's like, oh, a more

596
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 1: sort of mainstream, moderate, acceptable alternative to Trump. It's just

597
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 1: made it impossible to actually think clearly about where do

598
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 1: people stand on a policy basis, what would they do

599
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:07,720
Speaker 1: in office? Everything just becomes about this central question of

600
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 1: how do you feel? How in for Trump are you

601
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 1: or how opposed to Trump are you? And I hate

602
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 1: that well, and it's why the media pushes that too.

603
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 4: I mean, I think that's what's really frustrating to voters

604
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 4: is that they're forced to see everyone through this the

605
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 4: media's lens, which is a Trump lens. And it's not

606
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 4: just the media's fault for focusing on right. Although the

607
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 4: media loves it for ratings. They love it like the

608
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 4: legacy corporate media loves it for the.

609
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 3: Sake of ratings.

610
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 4: That's why they do always push Trump, like going back

611
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 4: to those early morning Joe appearances, when two people who

612
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 4: now claim to be diametrically ideologically opposed to him were

613
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 4: fetting him and salivating over him like that's always been

614
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 4: the case. What's super interesting about this is to your

615
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 4: point about Chris Christy and Nikki Hayley going from mocking

616
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 4: Trump on the wall to saying, hey.

617
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 3: We can maybe do a wall, or we have to

618
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 3: do a wall.

619
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 4: It's interesting because these are people who have not come

620
00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 4: around and into the sort of anti chamber of commerce

621
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 4: approach that some Republicans. Whether or not you agree that

622
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 4: this is taking over the Republican Party, and Ryan and

623
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 4: I have definitely debated that. I know there's some people

624
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 4: on the left that are absolutely skeptical that there's really

625
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 4: been motion that the Republican Party has really become against

626
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 4: the chamber of commerce because frankly, you have people like

627
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 4: Nikola Haley and Chris Christie who will never do that.

628
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 3: It's easy to say we need a border wall.

629
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 4: It's a lot more difficult to start talking about things

630
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 4: like birthright citizenships, to start talking about things like actually

631
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 4: having an asylum policy that makes sense and that it

632
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 4: disincentivizes the cartel trafficking that goes up through northern Mexico,

633
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 4: and praise on the fact that we have some of

634
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 4: these really lacks asylum policies that don't make a ton

635
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 4: of sense and are easily exploited, et cetera, et cetera.

636
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:46,800
Speaker 4: That is super interesting because they would they would.

637
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 3: Not do that.

638
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:48,880
Speaker 4: They can talk about the wall as the symbol, but

639
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 4: will they actually execute on a Trump type immigration policy.

640
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 3: No, and Trump himself was.

641
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 1: Trump did not execute on a Trump and immigration policy.

642
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm in my opinion he did way too

643
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 1: much that was terrible and unconscionable with regard to the

644
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 1: actual treatment of human beings. But in terms of the

645
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 1: most maximalist of his rhetoric, I mean, he talked about

646
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 1: any birthrights citizenship, but he didn't do it right.

647
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 4: He's talking about making a deal with Pelosi on DHAKA.

648
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 4: I mean, he's really not ideologically committed to this. It's

649
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 4: also kind of symbolic for him.

650
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 1: I think, Yeah, I think that's right. And I mean

651
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 1: that's just been so much rhetoric over these past number

652
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 1: of years around the border around immigration in conservative media,

653
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 1: and with Trump sort of leading the charge rhetorically that Yeah,

654
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:37,480
Speaker 1: even the quote unquote moderates are saying patently insane things

655
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 1: about literally invading our southern neighbor. Right. So it's a

656
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 1: sign of a lot of things. It's a sign of

657
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 1: how dominant Trump is, it's a sign of how far

658
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 1: right they feel okay to move to please to placate

659
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 1: a GOP base when the only issue that anyone pays

660
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:55,440
Speaker 1: attention to is like, what are you saying about Donald

661
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 1: Trump that really gives you cover to do whatever policy

662
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 1: wise to piece a base that you know that really

663
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 1: is pretty hard line in terms of immigration and pays

664
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 1: a lot of close attention to this. So you know,

665
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 1: it's it's kind of it's a pretty fascinating situation. And

666
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:12,960
Speaker 1: the same thing, you know, the same brain rot has

667
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 1: taken hold obviously in the Democratic Party too. You're talking

668
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 1: about Liz Cheney today, where it's like, again, what you

669
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 1: actually think on any issue is just completely wiped clean.

670
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 1: What you did during the Bush administration, what passed like

671
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 1: war crimes, you and Eil all of that is just

672
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 1: water under the bridge if you're willing to say the

673
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 1: right things with regard to Donald J. Trump.

674
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, And the final thing I would say, to just

675
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 4: bring it full circle is there's an actually esoteric sort

676
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:41,320
Speaker 4: of academic debate happening on the right now about whether

677
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 4: there is just cause for war with Mexican cartels, right,

678
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 4: not with the state of Mexico, because Mexico is a

679
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 4: failed state where you have you know, even though Ammelo would.

680
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 3: Admit it, won't admit it.

681
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 4: A swath of the country like actually in the control

682
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 4: of cartels. So can you then justify declaring war on

683
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 4: the cartels? And that's an actual debate that's happening, and

684
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 4: so there will be more conversation. I understand the temptation

685
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 4: to drone some of these fentanyl operations in Sinaloa, like

686
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 4: I actually understand why someone want.

687
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 3: To do that, just take them out one fell swoop.

688
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 4: But the idea that we can just do that and

689
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 4: get out is basically exactly what we've.

690
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 3: Seen repeatedly over the last one hundred.

691
00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 4: Years fail because I mean, we don't even need to

692
00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 4: get into the reasons. But that is a sincere conversation happening.

693
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 4: And that's where I have no idea whether Steven Miller

694
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 4: actually said that, but it's intention with this idea that

695
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 4: on the right you've seen a real improvement in the

696
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:39,239
Speaker 4: conversation about immigration, and maybe it's for tactical reasons, I

697
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 4: don't know, but that cartails are actually exploiting migrants, that

698
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 4: they're telling them, you know, you can do this, and

699
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 4: they're trafficking them, kidnapping them, raping.

700
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:48,200
Speaker 3: Them, torturing them.

701
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 4: Horrible, horrible situation because we have certain policies that they

702
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:52,680
Speaker 4: take advantage of.

703
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 3: Droning migrant boats is not whatso of.

704
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 1: Is not in the bounds of any sort of conversation

705
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:03,320
Speaker 1: anyone should be having. I do want to say I'm

706
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 1: a little bit skeptical of this report too, Like I'm not.

707
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:09,640
Speaker 1: I think Stephen Miller is psycho and I don't like

708
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 1: put it past him. But it is worth emphasizing that

709
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 1: the person who is claiming this is writing a book.

710
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:20,320
Speaker 1: You know, there's clearly an incentive.

711
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,120
Speaker 3: There has a history of exaggeration.

712
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 1: Potential history of exaggeration. And it seems like I don't

713
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:27,240
Speaker 1: know that much about the other dude in the room

714
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 1: who was you know, from the military, but he didn't

715
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:32,879
Speaker 1: seem like he's some like hardline Trump sikaphan who would

716
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 1: be going out of his way to cover for the

717
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:37,400
Speaker 1: former president. So anyway, take all of that for what

718
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:40,239
Speaker 1: it's worth. All right, this is you guys are going

719
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 1: to enjoy this one. So I don't even know if

720
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:44,880
Speaker 1: we've mentioned on the show, but this guy who's the

721
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:48,359
Speaker 1: mayor of Miami, Francis Souirez, has decided he also wants

722
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 1: to run for president in twenty twenty four in the

723
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 1: Republican primary. I most knew him because he's like really

724
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 1: embraced Crypto for Miami. That's been like kind of a thing.

725
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 1: Apparently the Miami mayor is kind of a very weak position.

726
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:05,279
Speaker 1: It's almost like more of a just a title and

727
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 1: name only. There isn't a lot of power the King

728
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 1: of Miami exactly, which I guess is an important title

729
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:14,240
Speaker 1: for what it's worth. But he was on Hugh Hewitt's

730
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 1: radio show and he got asked a question about whether

731
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,320
Speaker 1: or not he would be talking about the Chinese Wiger

732
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:25,440
Speaker 1: Muslim minority and their treatment. But you know, some of

733
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 1: that context was left out. He was just asked, like,

734
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 1: will you be talking about the Wiggers. It didn't go

735
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:29,759
Speaker 1: too well for him.

736
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 5: Take a listen, will you be talking about the Wigers

737
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 5: in your campaign? What the what?

738
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:36,640
Speaker 6: The Wigers?

739
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 3: What's a weaker? Okay, well come back to that. Let

740
00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:41,839
Speaker 3: me you won't be on you gotta get smart on that.

741
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 1: What's a weaker?

742
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 3: Oh?

743
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 1: It's so bad And it really reminded me. And I

744
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 1: don't think I'm the only one of how it seems

745
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 1: like every presidential election cycle, there's at least one of

746
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 1: these moments where someone who fancies themselves the next commander

747
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:01,800
Speaker 1: in chief fails to grasp even the most like basic

748
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:04,919
Speaker 1: information about, you know, our foreign policy, or what's going

749
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:07,080
Speaker 1: on in the world, or what their own plans are.

750
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 1: So we put together a little thanks to producer Mac,

751
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 1: we're putting together a little bit of a trip down

752
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 1: memory lane of some of the worst brain fart moments

753
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:19,359
Speaker 1: for political candidates over the past number of years. Let's

754
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 1: take a listen to that.

755
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 3: Would you do if you were elected?

756
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:23,320
Speaker 1: About Aleppo?

757
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 3: About Aleppo? And what is Aleppo? You're kidding? No, Aleppo

758
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 3: is in Syria. It's the it's the epicenter of the

759
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:38,160
Speaker 3: refugee crisis.

760
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 1: Okay, got it, got it?

761
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 6: Okay, it's three agencies of government when I get there

762
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 6: that are gone, commerce, education, and the what's the third

763
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 6: one there? Let's see EPA, EPA there you go.

764
00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:55,840
Speaker 3: No again, let's stop. Let's stops. Seriously, is EPA the

765
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:56,799
Speaker 3: one you were talking about?

766
00:36:57,000 --> 00:36:58,800
Speaker 1: No, sir, you can't name the third one?

767
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:01,840
Speaker 6: The third agency of government? I would I would do

768
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 6: away with the education, uh, the commerce, commerce, and let's see,

769
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 6: I can't the third one I can't. Sorry, So you

770
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 6: agreed with President Obama on Libya or not?

771
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:19,400
Speaker 3: Okay?

772
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 7: Libya? President Obama supported the uprising. Correct President Obama called

773
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 7: for the removal of God. Just gonna make sure we're

774
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:37,160
Speaker 7: talking about the same thing before I say yes, I agreed.

775
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:40,799
Speaker 7: I know I didn't agree. I do not agree with

776
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 7: the way he handled it for the following reason that

777
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 7: that's that's a different one. I gotta go back. See, uh,

778
00:37:57,000 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 7: got all the stuff twirling around in my head.

779
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:01,400
Speaker 5: Do you agree with the Bush doctrine.

780
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 3: In what respect? Charlie?

781
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:07,279
Speaker 4: What do you what?

782
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 5: Do you interpret it to be?

783
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:09,880
Speaker 3: His worldview?

784
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 4: No?

785
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:14,320
Speaker 5: The Bush doctrine nenunciated September two thousand and two before

786
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 5: the Iraq War.

787
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 1: I believe that what President Bush has attempted to do

788
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:24,359
Speaker 1: is rid this world of Islamic extremism.

789
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 5: The Bush doctrine, as I understand, is that we have

790
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:30,040
Speaker 5: the right of anticipatory self defense. We have the right

791
00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:32,400
Speaker 5: to a preemptive strike against any other country that we

792
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:33,719
Speaker 5: think is going to attack us.

793
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 1: Yikes. The Gary Johnson one, what is a leveo? I

794
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:39,880
Speaker 1: love the way that he is like a little bit

795
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:41,919
Speaker 1: of an attitude about it, Like how dare you ask

796
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:44,360
Speaker 1: me about this thing? No one clearly knows about Aleppo

797
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:46,960
Speaker 1: at a time when this was really central to what

798
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 1: was going on in terms of political news. But what

799
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:52,040
Speaker 1: did you make of Suarez's mess up here?

800
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:54,360
Speaker 4: You know, there was a political article this week about

801
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:56,759
Speaker 4: how the Republican field ended up getting so crowded. That

802
00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:59,319
Speaker 4: really interested me because what a lot of people on

803
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:00,799
Speaker 4: the right have been talked talking about in sort of

804
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:04,239
Speaker 4: conservative DC circles for the last five plus years is basically,

805
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:07,719
Speaker 4: how do you avoid a twenty sixteen situation? And I'm

806
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 4: not weighing in to say that you have to avoid

807
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:10,760
Speaker 4: a twenty sixteen situation.

808
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:11,839
Speaker 3: I'm sort of two minds.

809
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 4: I think it's great that you can field a bunch

810
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 4: of candidates from a bunch of different parts of the

811
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 4: party and have them duke it out for public support

812
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:22,360
Speaker 4: in this high profile arena for the presidential primary. To

813
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 4: an extent, I think that's better than having Martin O'Malley,

814
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:28,880
Speaker 4: Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton and what Jim Gilmore, I mean,

815
00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:30,279
Speaker 4: who name is Republican?

816
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 2: Yeah?

817
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:34,640
Speaker 3: Web Bran yeah, and so okay.

818
00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:37,440
Speaker 4: But at the same time, it's also very clearly for

819
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 4: some people not about becoming president of the United States,

820
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 4: and if it is, and they actually think, despite their

821
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 4: obvious long shot odds, that it's worth them becoming president

822
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 4: of the United States, it's just using our politics, using

823
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 4: voter resources, using donor money for vanity projects. And I mean,

824
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:58,399
Speaker 4: I don't know that every donor, even like super wealthy ones,

825
00:39:58,480 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 4: understand that.

826
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 3: I don't know if has any money.

827
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:03,879
Speaker 4: But clearly it's just a profile raising thing because I've

828
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:07,759
Speaker 4: seen it happen again and again in these wide open primaries.

829
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:09,560
Speaker 4: I mean, it happened with THEMS in two thousand and four.

830
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:12,239
Speaker 4: People were able to raise their profiles. Bill Richardson like,

831
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 4: this is like a real thing. Now, Yeah, people have learned,

832
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:18,440
Speaker 4: and it's not just Republicans, but it's really Republicans in

833
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:21,400
Speaker 4: the last ten years. So I think Suarez is just

834
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:24,439
Speaker 4: doing that and it's really unfortunate because it's a total

835
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 4: waste of everyone's time. It's not actually contributing anything meaningful.

836
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:33,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's so much to be gained from just positioning

837
00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:36,239
Speaker 1: yourself to be like a media figure, you know, like

838
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:40,280
Speaker 1: a conservative media darling, or like a frequent podcast guest.

839
00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 1: You know, there's a lot to be gained and frankly

840
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 1: not a lot to be lost from just being like, sure,

841
00:40:46,239 --> 00:40:48,319
Speaker 1: I'll throw my hat in the ring, Like I guess

842
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:50,200
Speaker 1: the thing that you could lose is like your dignity

843
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:52,719
Speaker 1: is what I've found out when like that's the really

844
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 1: the only thing anyone now knows him for is going

845
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 1: to be this moment of you know, just not knowing

846
00:40:57,800 --> 00:41:00,080
Speaker 1: a basic fact that many many people know and that

847
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:03,239
Speaker 1: you certainly should have some idea of if you are

848
00:41:03,520 --> 00:41:07,280
Speaker 1: serious about being commander in chief. I feel similarly to you, Emily.

849
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 1: It's like I am all for if you feel like

850
00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:12,800
Speaker 1: you have something to say, and you genuinely feel like,

851
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 1: all right, even if I think the passive presidency is

852
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:18,239
Speaker 1: really challenging, Like I is something I can contribute to

853
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:20,840
Speaker 1: this conversation that's not being said. I can put pressure

854
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:23,520
Speaker 1: on the top contenders to come around to my view

855
00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:26,880
Speaker 1: a bit more. Ron Paul's a great example. Mike Gravalla

856
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:30,839
Speaker 1: is a great example. Right then, yes, do it, even

857
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 1: if it looks like a suicide mission.

858
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:34,880
Speaker 4: Even why Bernie ran, by the way, so that's exactly

859
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:35,640
Speaker 4: what happened.

860
00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:38,240
Speaker 1: Is at work, that is correct. He thought he didn't

861
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 1: really think he was going to have a shot at winning.

862
00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:42,239
Speaker 1: You know, his campaign took off in a way that

863
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:46,000
Speaker 1: I think no one really expected. But he felt that

864
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 1: there should be a left challenge to Hillary Clinton to

865
00:41:48,080 --> 00:41:51,839
Speaker 1: put pressure on her, and obviously, you know, worked out

866
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:54,759
Speaker 1: and transform the country in a lot of ways. But

867
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 1: even if you don't have that path to like Bernie stardom,

868
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:01,800
Speaker 1: it can be important to have those voices or issues

869
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 1: that aren't being heard or aren't being talked about in

870
00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:06,360
Speaker 1: certain ways. So I don't want to minimize that whatsoever.

871
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:08,759
Speaker 1: But you know, for some of these people, it's like

872
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:11,640
Speaker 1: you're not saying anything different, Like you're just saying the

873
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:15,560
Speaker 1: same thing that everybody else is saying. Your politics are

874
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:18,000
Speaker 1: you know, they're not challenging to anyone, they're not raising

875
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:22,960
Speaker 1: new issues. It really either seems completely delusional, which I

876
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:25,840
Speaker 1: do think that some of these people are egotistic and

877
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:29,440
Speaker 1: delusional and narcissistic enough to actually imagine that they really

878
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:32,120
Speaker 1: have a shot at it. So I would like to

879
00:42:32,160 --> 00:42:35,280
Speaker 1: inhabit that mind for a day and like, know what

880
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:37,760
Speaker 1: what does that feel like to be that like super

881
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:42,280
Speaker 1: confident and anyway and just have that level of self delusion.

882
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 1: I would like to know what that is like maybe

883
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 1: people out there will be like you already have it anyway,

884
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 1: So that's one one possibility. The other is, yeah, they

885
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:53,720
Speaker 1: just want to like, you know, get their Fox News

886
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:56,759
Speaker 1: gig or get their podcasts or you know, raise their

887
00:42:56,760 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 1: media profile. And I don't know which categories are falls into,

888
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:02,879
Speaker 1: but I don't think it's really particularly helpful. And this

889
00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:04,800
Speaker 1: is one of the downsides of like the new media

890
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:09,800
Speaker 1: ecosystem is so much of our politics is about vibes

891
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:13,759
Speaker 1: and about branding, yeah, and not about substance, that it's

892
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 1: like there's there's no barriers and there's no real downside

893
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:19,680
Speaker 1: to just taking this particular path.

894
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:22,040
Speaker 4: Well, and for me, it ends up feeling like so

895
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:24,680
Speaker 4: many different things these days where you just have people

896
00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:27,640
Speaker 4: picking at the carcass of the country right that are

897
00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:31,040
Speaker 4: just like profiting. It feels like total like late stage

898
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 4: republic stuff.

899
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:34,839
Speaker 3: Where you're just having people picking at the.

900
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:38,799
Speaker 4: Carcass of a great country and using it for the

901
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:41,480
Speaker 4: personal profit. Because it's going it feels like it's going downhill.

902
00:43:41,520 --> 00:43:43,880
Speaker 4: That's really pessimistic. I'm not saying that's definitely what happens.

903
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 4: What's happening. I'm saying that's often what I feel like

904
00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 4: what's happening. And this is a great example of just

905
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 4: somebody who's able to just field some like fu money

906
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:55,840
Speaker 4: from wealthy donors to launch a perspective or a silly

907
00:43:55,880 --> 00:43:58,360
Speaker 4: bid that's really not intended to go anywhere, but waste

908
00:43:58,760 --> 00:44:01,319
Speaker 4: you know, five hundred thousand dollar or whatever in the

909
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:03,719
Speaker 4: process because it's nothing to these donors who want to

910
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 4: see him talking about crypto on a debate stage.

911
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:07,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean listen. On the other hand, that's probably

912
00:44:07,880 --> 00:44:10,960
Speaker 1: why Trump ran too. There's like a brand makeping exercise, right,

913
00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:14,319
Speaker 1: so and president of the United States. There's another sign

914
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 1: of like the perils of our republic. But yeah, the

915
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:21,480
Speaker 1: fact that what should be the most serious responsibility of

916
00:44:21,600 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 1: the citizenry, of the you know, of the public apparatus

917
00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:29,400
Speaker 1: of the town square, which should be the most serious function,

918
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 1: has just turned into this like clown show reality show

919
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:34,879
Speaker 1: is It's not a great sign, not a great sign

920
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:35,400
Speaker 1: for the future.

921
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:37,000
Speaker 3: Love reality TV? Don't love it?

922
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:39,320
Speaker 1: In the presidential election, yes, correct, let's go ahead and

923
00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:42,720
Speaker 1: throw up on the screen where the Republican primary sits today,

924
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:46,080
Speaker 1: and then we have some news about our dear leader

925
00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:51,480
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. You know, this is looking increasingly difficult for

926
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 1: anyone not named Donald Trump to imagine themselves being able

927
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:58,240
Speaker 1: to overcome what are a lot of obstacles to their success.

928
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:02,440
Speaker 1: Trump in the morning Console Tracker is at fifty seven percent,

929
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:05,440
Speaker 1: Ronda Santis at nineteen percent, Mike Pennce at seven, the

930
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:08,440
Speaker 1: Vecroamaswami at six. It's a good showing for him. I mean,

931
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:11,040
Speaker 1: he's been I think, really successful at raising his profile

932
00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 1: in terms of that lane. Nicki Haley at three, Tim

933
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:17,719
Speaker 1: Scott at three, Chris Christy at two, Asa Hutchinson on

934
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 1: the board at one. Sadly, my favorite candidate, Doug Bergham

935
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:25,239
Speaker 1: zero Suarez, the afore mentioned zero percent, Will Hurd who

936
00:45:25,280 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 1: just jumped into the race zero percent, and someone else

937
00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:32,160
Speaker 1: one percent. And I mean, listen, it's the argument for

938
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:34,560
Speaker 1: Rondosantis was like, once he gets in the race and

939
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:36,719
Speaker 1: he's actually going head to head against Donald Trump, things

940
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 1: are going to change and he's gonna be able to

941
00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:40,960
Speaker 1: consolidate the vote. And the fact that you now have

942
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:43,319
Speaker 1: Donald Trump routinely, not just in this pole, but in

943
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:47,360
Speaker 1: a lot of polls over fifty percent, it's hard to

944
00:45:47,360 --> 00:45:49,839
Speaker 1: see how this works out without something that we don't

945
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 1: expect happening. Which listen American politics, you.

946
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 4: Never know, well, this is the big difference with twenty

947
00:45:54,239 --> 00:45:57,320
Speaker 4: sixteen that these numbers, and this was consistent throughout the

948
00:45:57,440 --> 00:45:59,400
Speaker 4: entire primary. When you looked at those numbers, it was

949
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:01,759
Speaker 4: really the other way around. You had Donald Trump. You know,

950
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:03,800
Speaker 4: if you put the five and six for Pence and

951
00:46:03,840 --> 00:46:07,160
Speaker 4: Haley together with DeSantis as nineteen percent, he's somewhere around

952
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:09,920
Speaker 4: thirty percent in most polls, that was more what Donald

953
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:12,480
Speaker 4: Trump had and the other people were split with that

954
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:15,960
Speaker 4: fifty seven percent. So you had most Republican primary voters

955
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:18,120
Speaker 4: in twenty sixteen voting.

956
00:46:17,840 --> 00:46:18,439
Speaker 3: For someone else.

957
00:46:18,440 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 4: It was just that there was so much spread out

958
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:23,799
Speaker 4: between so many different people, and they didn't consolidate in

959
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:25,799
Speaker 4: the sort of Pete Klobuchar way that happened with.

960
00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:26,880
Speaker 3: Democrats in twenty twenty.

961
00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:28,760
Speaker 4: They never were able to do that, and so Donald

962
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:31,800
Speaker 4: Trump has this col lane. Now it's the exact opposite

963
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 4: of that, where Trump is around sixty percent and there's

964
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:35,800
Speaker 4: just not that thirty percent is not going to be

965
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:39,640
Speaker 4: enough unless you really start to really, I mean, it's

966
00:46:39,840 --> 00:46:42,640
Speaker 4: possible when we think about how there are you know,

967
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:44,920
Speaker 4: you have New Hampshire, you have Iowa of South Carolina.

968
00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:47,479
Speaker 4: People get momentum if you know they have a really

969
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:49,920
Speaker 4: good ground game in Iowa. Ron DeSantis does have a

970
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:52,240
Speaker 4: good ground game in Iowa. Right, he wins Iowa.

971
00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:54,400
Speaker 3: I think Ted Cruz won Iowa. I mean, like this

972
00:46:54,560 --> 00:46:56,040
Speaker 3: is it's not your shoeing.

973
00:46:56,520 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 4: But that can change momentum, it can change money, it

974
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:03,319
Speaker 4: can change to the media conversation. So again, nothing is impossible,

975
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:06,040
Speaker 4: but this trajectory where you have Donald Trump sitting that

976
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:08,399
Speaker 4: high not great for anyone else.

977
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:10,400
Speaker 1: It's one thing when you're saying, all right, if I

978
00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 1: just consolidate everyone who's like not even not anti Trump,

979
00:47:14,080 --> 00:47:18,080
Speaker 1: but who's like anti Trump, curious, like interested in Leo's

980
00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:19,960
Speaker 1: maybe go in a different direction, then I can pull

981
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:21,799
Speaker 1: it off. Because you could imagine that, right, You can

982
00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:24,120
Speaker 1: imagine these other Doug Bergram and Chris Christy or whatever.

983
00:47:24,120 --> 00:47:25,799
Speaker 1: You can imagine them falling to the wayside and you

984
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:28,839
Speaker 1: being able to consolidate that vote. It's a whole different

985
00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:30,600
Speaker 1: beast when you're talking about I got to actually take

986
00:47:30,600 --> 00:47:32,759
Speaker 1: away from people who affirmatively are saying like, nah, I'm

987
00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:35,880
Speaker 1: with Trump right now. That's a different animal. And I

988
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:38,240
Speaker 1: think kind of in a show of force, right, now

989
00:47:38,320 --> 00:47:42,480
Speaker 1: the Trump operation is moving swiftly to effectively rig the

990
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:45,239
Speaker 1: rules of the primary and rejigger the order of the

991
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:47,920
Speaker 1: states and whether their primaries or caucuses in order to

992
00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 1: best benefit. In their opinion, the former present put this

993
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:54,480
Speaker 1: up on the screen. Interesting report here from Reuters. They

994
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:57,560
Speaker 1: say Trump team lobbying for primary rule changes to boost

995
00:47:57,560 --> 00:48:02,040
Speaker 1: his twenty twenty four chances. They talk a lot about Nevada,

996
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:05,840
Speaker 1: in particular, where they want it to be a caucus

997
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:10,000
Speaker 1: instead of a primary. Their analysis is that they think

998
00:48:10,040 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 1: caucuses are better for Trump because his people are more committed,

999
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:15,920
Speaker 1: so they're more likely show up. Caucuses obviously lower turnout

1000
00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:19,280
Speaker 1: because it's more effortful than just going and casting your ballot.

1001
00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:22,919
Speaker 1: The Desanta's campaign they don't necessarily agree with this, though,

1002
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 1: Emily they think that because they're based and this to

1003
00:48:25,080 --> 00:48:28,200
Speaker 1: me was an interesting admission, they think because their base

1004
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:32,120
Speaker 1: is wealthier and higher education, that they'll have more free

1005
00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:34,360
Speaker 1: time to go and show up at a caucus, so

1006
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:36,600
Speaker 1: they actually aren't sure that this is bad for them.

1007
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:39,640
Speaker 1: But Trump is also moving to push pro Trump states

1008
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:41,880
Speaker 1: earlier in the process so that he can sort of

1009
00:48:41,880 --> 00:48:45,320
Speaker 1: close the door on any of his rivals. Ron DeSantis

1010
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:48,879
Speaker 1: in particular early on. And I think there's a couple

1011
00:48:48,960 --> 00:48:52,439
Speaker 1: things to note here. Number one, as I said, show

1012
00:48:52,440 --> 00:48:55,840
Speaker 1: of strength, because Trump does have a lot of loyal

1013
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:59,360
Speaker 1: allies in a lot of these states. So this is

1014
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:01,440
Speaker 1: what comes from I'm in president of the United States,

1015
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:04,840
Speaker 1: from having this infrastructure sort of like and true believers

1016
00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:06,880
Speaker 1: set up ready to go for you to go to

1017
00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:08,919
Speaker 1: them and say, hey, this is what I want. They're like, yes, Sarah,

1018
00:49:08,960 --> 00:49:11,719
Speaker 1: we'll do it. The other thing that I think is interesting,

1019
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:14,000
Speaker 1: and we had a reporter on that mentioned this as well,

1020
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:17,960
Speaker 1: is Trump's campaigns previously not known as like a model

1021
00:49:18,040 --> 00:49:22,480
Speaker 1: of organizational glory, you know. Twenty sixteen famously was like

1022
00:49:23,719 --> 00:49:27,000
Speaker 1: chewing gum and duct tape. Basically it was less a

1023
00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:30,040
Speaker 1: campaign than sort of a traveling rock concert or something

1024
00:49:30,120 --> 00:49:33,799
Speaker 1: like that. Twenty twenty they had huge issues with I'm

1025
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:35,600
Speaker 1: forgetting what was the name of the campaign manager that

1026
00:49:35,680 --> 00:49:37,440
Speaker 1: like blew all their money and like that was kind

1027
00:49:37,440 --> 00:49:40,239
Speaker 1: of a mess as well. This time it seems like

1028
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:43,440
Speaker 1: they have a more competent campaign team. Like this is

1029
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:46,400
Speaker 1: the kind of stuff that a well oiled political machine

1030
00:49:46,600 --> 00:49:48,560
Speaker 1: is on top of, and they appear to actually be

1031
00:49:48,600 --> 00:49:51,080
Speaker 1: on top of it, much to many people's shock at surprise.

1032
00:49:51,280 --> 00:49:53,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, and then there's always that question of if that

1033
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:56,560
Speaker 4: blows back on Donald Trump in any way. I don't know,

1034
00:49:56,600 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 4: because consultants can, you know, professional dec consultants can. Obviously

1035
00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:02,279
Speaker 4: they do in questionable decisions, which is what some folks

1036
00:50:02,320 --> 00:50:04,520
Speaker 4: are wondering when it comes to DeSantis right now. But

1037
00:50:04,880 --> 00:50:07,239
Speaker 4: this is the kind of stuff that professional campaigns and

1038
00:50:07,280 --> 00:50:10,120
Speaker 4: the like political attorneys know how to do, and if

1039
00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:11,759
Speaker 4: you don't have that, you're obviously always going to be

1040
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 4: at a disadvantage. It's one of the annoying things about

1041
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:16,440
Speaker 4: our politics actually is that you have to pay money

1042
00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:19,440
Speaker 4: to hire people to sort of do this stuff for you,

1043
00:50:19,640 --> 00:50:21,840
Speaker 4: which is like lobbying for rules changes.

1044
00:50:21,920 --> 00:50:22,839
Speaker 3: It's ridiculous.

1045
00:50:23,160 --> 00:50:25,480
Speaker 4: But it is a sign that that that is definitely

1046
00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:28,239
Speaker 4: a difference between twenty sixteen Trump and twenty twenty four Trump.

1047
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:31,000
Speaker 4: Also twenty twenty Trump is that you just didn't have

1048
00:50:31,080 --> 00:50:36,160
Speaker 4: the exact same level of like professional politicos attached to

1049
00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:37,840
Speaker 4: the operation you had Paul.

1050
00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:42,000
Speaker 1: Manniford, right. Yeah, So, and I don't think that anyone

1051
00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:45,880
Speaker 1: would be under an illusion that the consultants who are

1052
00:50:45,920 --> 00:50:48,279
Speaker 1: attached to the Trump campaign are going to be able

1053
00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:53,120
Speaker 1: to reign in Donald Trump, right, because many have tried and.

1054
00:50:52,960 --> 00:50:54,640
Speaker 3: It just let Trump that Trump.

1055
00:50:54,880 --> 00:50:56,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, that part is not going to work out. So

1056
00:50:56,840 --> 00:50:59,640
Speaker 1: if they can still listen, it's not my cup of tea.

1057
00:50:59,680 --> 00:51:02,279
Speaker 1: But they're a lot of people who love Trump's unvarnished

1058
00:51:02,400 --> 00:51:07,440
Speaker 1: like he's a legitimately hilarious person unfortunately as well. So

1059
00:51:07,680 --> 00:51:10,719
Speaker 1: if he maintains that and they also have an effective organization,

1060
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:12,759
Speaker 1: listen again, I think that's going to be pretty tough

1061
00:51:12,760 --> 00:51:12,920
Speaker 1: to be.

1062
00:51:15,960 --> 00:51:18,719
Speaker 4: Let's move on to my favorite block maybe ever, which

1063
00:51:18,800 --> 00:51:22,839
Speaker 4: is just called men on the screen. Just men.

1064
00:51:23,080 --> 00:51:24,920
Speaker 1: We just don't know. We've put this in the D block.

1065
00:51:25,120 --> 00:51:26,120
Speaker 3: This is in the D block.

1066
00:51:26,320 --> 00:51:29,400
Speaker 4: This is the right And we did, of course consult McGriffin,

1067
00:51:29,600 --> 00:51:34,120
Speaker 4: the extraordinary production team here for their thoughts. Yeah, the study,

1068
00:51:34,160 --> 00:51:36,239
Speaker 4: and Crystal actually has some thoughts to include from one

1069
00:51:36,280 --> 00:51:37,000
Speaker 4: of her offspring.

1070
00:51:37,160 --> 00:51:40,200
Speaker 3: Yes, comes to men, but let's put let's go ahead.

1071
00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:41,440
Speaker 4: And put d one up on the screen. This is

1072
00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:44,600
Speaker 4: from studyfines dot org. They right, Modern men are now

1073
00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 4: just as likely as women to openly display a sensitive side,

1074
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:50,000
Speaker 4: according to a new survey. The poll of two thousand

1075
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:52,839
Speaker 4: adults find seventy one percent of men confessed to being

1076
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 4: in touch with how they feel, compared to eighty two

1077
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:58,960
Speaker 4: percent of women. So pretty close they're across all respondents

1078
00:51:58,960 --> 00:52:01,839
Speaker 4: who consider themselves sense that forty one percent outwardly show

1079
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:04,000
Speaker 4: this side of their personality quote often.

1080
00:52:04,040 --> 00:52:05,800
Speaker 3: Or quote early always.

1081
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:08,160
Speaker 4: A third think being in tune with how they feel

1082
00:52:08,239 --> 00:52:11,239
Speaker 4: is the sign of a good leader. While of thirty

1083
00:52:11,239 --> 00:52:13,800
Speaker 4: seven percent of men would consider being called quote sensitive

1084
00:52:13,840 --> 00:52:16,719
Speaker 4: a compliment, only twenty three percent of women feel the

1085
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:18,719
Speaker 4: same way. In fact, twenty four percent of women in

1086
00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:22,040
Speaker 4: the survey would feel insulted if someone referred to them

1087
00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:24,759
Speaker 4: that way. Now, the study I found this actually pretty.

1088
00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 3: Amusing, was commissioned.

1089
00:52:25,600 --> 00:52:28,839
Speaker 4: By a Vino and it found fifty five percent think

1090
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:31,879
Speaker 4: others men who openly show their sensitive side make them

1091
00:52:31,880 --> 00:52:34,400
Speaker 4: more likable. And the research found forty eight percent of

1092
00:52:34,400 --> 00:52:37,239
Speaker 4: respondents believe it's more socially acceptable for women to show

1093
00:52:37,280 --> 00:52:38,240
Speaker 4: their sensitive.

1094
00:52:37,840 --> 00:52:38,480
Speaker 3: Side that men.

1095
00:52:38,640 --> 00:52:42,439
Speaker 4: That's not entirely surprising. Yeah, I mean, none of this

1096
00:52:42,640 --> 00:52:45,000
Speaker 4: is super shocking to me. It does feel like a shift,

1097
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:46,920
Speaker 4: of course, but one that's somewhat predictable.

1098
00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:49,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, I thought one of the most interesting I thought,

1099
00:52:49,480 --> 00:52:51,120
Speaker 1: I wonder what you think about this is They said

1100
00:52:51,160 --> 00:52:53,960
Speaker 1: thirty seven percent of men would consider being called sensitive

1101
00:52:54,040 --> 00:52:57,320
Speaker 1: a compliment, whereas only twenty three percent of women feel

1102
00:52:57,400 --> 00:53:00,000
Speaker 1: the same way. In fact, twenty four percent of women

1103
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:02,920
Speaker 1: in the survey would feel insulted if someone referred to

1104
00:53:02,960 --> 00:53:05,200
Speaker 1: them in this way. But I sort of think that

1105
00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:07,839
Speaker 1: that's justified because I do feel like if you call

1106
00:53:07,880 --> 00:53:10,040
Speaker 1: a woman sensitive, it is kind of more of a

1107
00:53:10,080 --> 00:53:12,319
Speaker 1: slight whereas if you call a man sensitive, it's like, oh,

1108
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:15,200
Speaker 1: he's like in touch with his feelings, he's very sweet

1109
00:53:15,320 --> 00:53:18,320
Speaker 1: and he's sensitive, you know. So I sort of feel

1110
00:53:18,360 --> 00:53:20,719
Speaker 1: like that's a legitimate way to view it, that the

1111
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:22,480
Speaker 1: word is a little gendered in the way that it

1112
00:53:22,520 --> 00:53:23,040
Speaker 1: is applied.

1113
00:53:23,160 --> 00:53:23,600
Speaker 3: What do you think?

1114
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:25,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, no, I agree with that, And I think it's

1115
00:53:25,040 --> 00:53:27,759
Speaker 4: we have these we've sort of tried for some really

1116
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:31,560
Speaker 4: good reasons to walk away from the excesses or the

1117
00:53:31,680 --> 00:53:37,760
Speaker 4: stereotypical traits associated with both sexes. So yeah, overt masculinity

1118
00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:41,080
Speaker 4: is now has now been like pinned to toxic masculinity,

1119
00:53:41,480 --> 00:53:45,120
Speaker 4: and over femininity has been pinned to like what Cheryl

1120
00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:48,480
Speaker 4: Sandberg would you know, and probably not personally described, but

1121
00:53:48,719 --> 00:53:52,279
Speaker 4: implicitly sort of cast as a weakness in the workplace,

1122
00:53:52,320 --> 00:53:55,799
Speaker 4: et et cetera. And so you see people now increasingly

1123
00:53:55,880 --> 00:53:59,799
Speaker 4: finding that as like actually offensive because it's been associated with,

1124
00:54:00,400 --> 00:54:04,040
Speaker 4: you know, in some degrees if women want to you know,

1125
00:54:04,600 --> 00:54:06,560
Speaker 4: I don't know, like if you're in the workforce, then

1126
00:54:06,640 --> 00:54:10,080
Speaker 4: men are going to obviously make sensitivity probably a negative

1127
00:54:10,080 --> 00:54:10,960
Speaker 4: trait for women.

1128
00:54:11,080 --> 00:54:13,040
Speaker 3: Right, which is not right, but like that's what's going

1129
00:54:13,080 --> 00:54:13,560
Speaker 3: to happen.

1130
00:54:13,680 --> 00:54:15,520
Speaker 4: And so you see this like walking away from that

1131
00:54:15,600 --> 00:54:17,120
Speaker 4: on both from both sexes.

1132
00:54:17,120 --> 00:54:18,400
Speaker 3: That's really actually fascinating.

1133
00:54:18,480 --> 00:54:20,560
Speaker 1: It kind of reminds me of some of the research

1134
00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:25,000
Speaker 1: about how when women take time off from work to

1135
00:54:25,160 --> 00:54:28,440
Speaker 1: like go to their kids ballet recital or be soccer

1136
00:54:28,520 --> 00:54:31,879
Speaker 1: coach or whatever, it's held against her. Where's when men

1137
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:34,719
Speaker 1: do it. It's like look at that great dad. Wow, what

1138
00:54:34,800 --> 00:54:37,839
Speaker 1: a great what a great guy, so involved in his

1139
00:54:37,920 --> 00:54:42,239
Speaker 1: own children's lives. Right, So I do think like that's

1140
00:54:42,320 --> 00:54:47,000
Speaker 1: tied to this sensitivity conversation. There was another stat here

1141
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:50,560
Speaker 1: that was surprising to me. Take all this with the

1142
00:54:50,560 --> 00:54:53,280
Speaker 1: great assault, but there was a survey in twenty twenty

1143
00:54:53,320 --> 00:54:56,120
Speaker 1: one of over two thousand people, so it's not a

1144
00:54:56,160 --> 00:54:59,600
Speaker 1: super small sample or anything that found men cry on

1145
00:54:59,680 --> 00:55:04,359
Speaker 1: app about four times a month. That seems like a lot, right,

1146
00:55:04,680 --> 00:55:07,640
Speaker 1: that seems like a lot. It was actually more than

1147
00:55:07,719 --> 00:55:10,520
Speaker 1: women reported crying. And this is all self reported. They

1148
00:55:10,800 --> 00:55:13,560
Speaker 1: women weep about three times in a given month. Men

1149
00:55:13,640 --> 00:55:16,359
Speaker 1: weave at about four times in a given month. That's

1150
00:55:16,440 --> 00:55:19,160
Speaker 1: forty eight times a year for men and only thirty

1151
00:55:19,160 --> 00:55:22,440
Speaker 1: six for women. This is the piece I asked my

1152
00:55:22,600 --> 00:55:24,799
Speaker 1: fifteen year old, who you know is in touch with it,

1153
00:55:24,840 --> 00:55:28,920
Speaker 1: the young gents and the upcoming generation, the gen z vibes,

1154
00:55:28,960 --> 00:55:32,440
Speaker 1: and also it is just legitimately hilarious person And she said,

1155
00:55:32,640 --> 00:55:37,320
Speaker 1: she texted me they need to cry more, complain less,

1156
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:42,319
Speaker 1: and start fewer podcasts. That was her analysis of all

1157
00:55:42,360 --> 00:55:42,640
Speaker 1: of this.

1158
00:55:42,920 --> 00:55:44,400
Speaker 3: Genuinely wanted on one of these mugs.

1159
00:55:44,480 --> 00:55:48,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, seriously, she's amazing. But I have to say, like,

1160
00:55:50,000 --> 00:55:53,200
Speaker 1: there's there's a fine line emily between like, you know,

1161
00:55:53,320 --> 00:55:56,920
Speaker 1: not just shoving your feelings down, not feeling like you

1162
00:55:57,000 --> 00:55:59,600
Speaker 1: have to put up some brave front all the time

1163
00:55:59,760 --> 00:56:03,080
Speaker 1: and toxically masculine however you want to find, like there's

1164
00:56:03,080 --> 00:56:06,520
Speaker 1: a fine line between it's fine for men to have feelings,

1165
00:56:06,520 --> 00:56:09,280
Speaker 1: to show feelings and be themselves and all that stuff

1166
00:56:09,680 --> 00:56:13,200
Speaker 1: and being overly self indulgent, and I honestly don't even

1167
00:56:13,200 --> 00:56:16,920
Speaker 1: feel like that's a male female conversation. I also feel

1168
00:56:16,920 --> 00:56:19,319
Speaker 1: like there's just like a little bit of that generationally,

1169
00:56:19,400 --> 00:56:22,320
Speaker 1: where there's so much emphasis on like working on yourself

1170
00:56:22,440 --> 00:56:25,960
Speaker 1: and self care. Can it can go from being a

1171
00:56:26,000 --> 00:56:29,400
Speaker 1: good thing which is beneficial to pay attention to yourself

1172
00:56:29,400 --> 00:56:32,040
Speaker 1: and what's going on and feel comfortable if your emotions

1173
00:56:32,080 --> 00:56:34,280
Speaker 1: and be able to work through those things, et cetera,

1174
00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:39,960
Speaker 1: and just like a narcissistic self involved tendency that ends

1175
00:56:40,040 --> 00:56:42,680
Speaker 1: up being a burden on the people around you. To mean,

1176
00:56:42,719 --> 00:56:46,359
Speaker 1: there's a fine line between those things. And got to say,

1177
00:56:46,840 --> 00:56:49,840
Speaker 1: weeping four times a month feels like it's over that line.

1178
00:56:50,080 --> 00:56:52,120
Speaker 1: Just to be totally real, not to go all and

1179
00:56:52,239 --> 00:56:54,040
Speaker 1: entertained here, but that feels like it's a little over

1180
00:56:54,040 --> 00:56:54,799
Speaker 1: the line. That's a.

1181
00:56:56,560 --> 00:56:58,440
Speaker 3: I don't think I cry four times. I don't think

1182
00:56:58,440 --> 00:56:59,120
Speaker 3: I cry once.

1183
00:57:00,520 --> 00:57:02,440
Speaker 1: I do cry once a month, there's no doubt about it. Well,

1184
00:57:02,440 --> 00:57:03,200
Speaker 1: and here's the other thing.

1185
00:57:03,200 --> 00:57:04,560
Speaker 3: I like to cry a lot, but I don't know

1186
00:57:04,560 --> 00:57:05,480
Speaker 3: that I cry once some month.

1187
00:57:05,560 --> 00:57:07,640
Speaker 1: Here's the other thing. I want to know what counts

1188
00:57:07,680 --> 00:57:11,600
Speaker 1: as crying, because listen, you put up, even just like

1189
00:57:11,640 --> 00:57:15,520
Speaker 1: a stupid television commercial about like kids and something sentimental.

1190
00:57:15,800 --> 00:57:18,720
Speaker 1: I am a sucker. I will tear up over anything. Yes,

1191
00:57:18,920 --> 00:57:23,200
Speaker 1: my kids dance recital, right or her little kindergarten graduate.

1192
00:57:23,240 --> 00:57:26,480
Speaker 1: Forget it, like I'm done, you know, But is just

1193
00:57:26,520 --> 00:57:29,720
Speaker 1: like welling up? Is that considered crying or are we

1194
00:57:29,800 --> 00:57:33,520
Speaker 1: talking about like a real proper cry with you know,

1195
00:57:33,600 --> 00:57:36,680
Speaker 1: some breathing and sobbing or whatever. It's what are we

1196
00:57:36,800 --> 00:57:40,520
Speaker 1: What are we talking about here? Because do I well

1197
00:57:40,600 --> 00:57:43,720
Speaker 1: up like that emotionally three times a month? Probably?

1198
00:57:43,800 --> 00:57:44,000
Speaker 4: Yeah?

1199
00:57:44,080 --> 00:57:46,720
Speaker 1: Probably, yeah, I would say so do I actually like

1200
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:48,560
Speaker 1: have a full on I don't remember the last time

1201
00:57:48,560 --> 00:57:50,160
Speaker 1: I had like a full on cry?

1202
00:57:50,840 --> 00:57:52,840
Speaker 3: You know, No, I don't either. I can't.

1203
00:57:53,000 --> 00:57:55,080
Speaker 4: But this is another thing that's interesting. It goes to

1204
00:57:55,120 --> 00:57:57,280
Speaker 4: exactly what we were talking about earlier. Are men self

1205
00:57:57,320 --> 00:58:01,640
Speaker 4: reporting more crying than they actually do, because it's like

1206
00:58:01,800 --> 00:58:05,200
Speaker 4: proving a point that that is socially rewarded now right,

1207
00:58:05,240 --> 00:58:09,520
Speaker 4: that you're not you're not toxically masculine, You're somebody who.

1208
00:58:09,400 --> 00:58:12,920
Speaker 1: Is sensitive, which for men insteadive yeah they see it

1209
00:58:12,960 --> 00:58:13,720
Speaker 1: more is a good thing.

1210
00:58:13,880 --> 00:58:17,920
Speaker 4: And are women men under reporting the crying? And that's

1211
00:58:18,040 --> 00:58:20,000
Speaker 4: like One of the reasons that I find the Sheryl

1212
00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:22,480
Speaker 4: Sandberg sort of approach to femininity and I find the

1213
00:58:22,560 --> 00:58:25,640
Speaker 4: like toxic masculinity conversation frustrating is because.

1214
00:58:25,600 --> 00:58:28,400
Speaker 3: The reason I think women do belong in the workforce

1215
00:58:28,600 --> 00:58:30,160
Speaker 3: is that men and women are different.

1216
00:58:30,680 --> 00:58:33,040
Speaker 4: I think that's actually great, and the reason that women

1217
00:58:33,080 --> 00:58:34,000
Speaker 4: should be in the work.

1218
00:58:33,800 --> 00:58:35,640
Speaker 1: Force, it only comes out in favor of women in

1219
00:58:35,680 --> 00:58:37,320
Speaker 1: the work force. Listen, Bob Shell.

1220
00:58:37,600 --> 00:58:41,200
Speaker 4: Controversial stuff, I know, as two of us sit here,

1221
00:58:41,640 --> 00:58:44,640
Speaker 4: but like the reason for that and a reason that

1222
00:58:44,760 --> 00:58:47,560
Speaker 4: like I actually have argued conservatives should prioritize, for.

1223
00:58:47,440 --> 00:58:49,760
Speaker 3: Instance, putting a woman on the Supreme Court.

1224
00:58:49,640 --> 00:58:53,040
Speaker 4: More controversial opinions is that men and women are different.

1225
00:58:53,160 --> 00:58:57,160
Speaker 4: That has particularly political that has political salience, but it

1226
00:58:57,200 --> 00:59:00,560
Speaker 4: also has saliens in the workplace, and women's sensitivity makes

1227
00:59:00,600 --> 00:59:05,200
Speaker 4: them good workers. Men's stoicism makes them good workers. You

1228
00:59:05,240 --> 00:59:08,520
Speaker 4: contribute different things to the table. And yet there are

1229
00:59:08,560 --> 00:59:10,840
Speaker 4: women who probably could use a little bit more stoicism

1230
00:59:10,920 --> 00:59:11,560
Speaker 4: in the workforce.

1231
00:59:11,720 --> 00:59:12,720
Speaker 3: We've all worked with them.

1232
00:59:13,000 --> 00:59:14,600
Speaker 4: But there are also men that could use a little

1233
00:59:14,600 --> 00:59:17,960
Speaker 4: bit more sensitivity in the workforce. And so but on average,

1234
00:59:18,040 --> 00:59:22,320
Speaker 4: those differences are helpful and important and it's just frustrating

1235
00:59:22,400 --> 00:59:25,400
Speaker 4: that we're all now trying to prove we can be

1236
00:59:25,680 --> 00:59:29,640
Speaker 4: you know, more than toxic masculine, toxically masculine or feminine.

1237
00:59:29,720 --> 00:59:32,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Cheryl Sandberg point is a good one. And listen,

1238
00:59:32,800 --> 00:59:34,960
Speaker 1: obviously we're talking about averages here. There are women that

1239
00:59:35,000 --> 00:59:37,640
Speaker 1: are more on like what would be the traditionally male

1240
00:59:37,840 --> 00:59:42,200
Speaker 1: idea of you know, characteristics and personality traits of the spectrum.

1241
00:59:42,200 --> 00:59:44,160
Speaker 1: There are men who are more on it, and all

1242
00:59:44,200 --> 00:59:45,800
Speaker 1: of that is fine, right, and it's just within the

1243
00:59:45,880 --> 00:59:47,680
Speaker 1: range of human differences, and it's all while I'm good,

1244
00:59:48,200 --> 00:59:51,160
Speaker 1: but yeah, I read that leading Cheryl Sandberg book and

1245
00:59:51,640 --> 00:59:52,440
Speaker 1: you respised it.

1246
00:59:52,680 --> 00:59:53,560
Speaker 3: No, you were inspired.

1247
00:59:53,680 --> 00:59:55,400
Speaker 1: That was inspired, and it's how I got to where

1248
00:59:55,400 --> 00:59:55,920
Speaker 1: I am now.

1249
00:59:56,080 --> 00:59:59,040
Speaker 3: Hillage American culture and build a mansion.

1250
00:59:59,120 --> 01:00:02,080
Speaker 1: It was the it was the perfect It was the

1251
01:00:02,120 --> 01:00:06,439
Speaker 1: perfect symbol of like that moment in feminism where first

1252
01:00:06,440 --> 01:00:08,920
Speaker 1: of all it was just all about like representation in

1253
01:00:08,960 --> 01:00:13,200
Speaker 1: the C suite, right, which is also really inapplicable to

1254
01:00:14,000 --> 01:00:16,760
Speaker 1: almost all women, right, is like most of why employ

1255
01:00:16,920 --> 01:00:20,080
Speaker 1: workers too, Yeah, exactly, Like we can be the head

1256
01:00:20,120 --> 01:00:23,680
Speaker 1: of horrific systems as well of oppression, no problem, but

1257
01:00:23,760 --> 01:00:27,400
Speaker 1: it really did. The research that went into it, and

1258
01:00:27,440 --> 01:00:30,600
Speaker 1: what she was advocating for was basically like, forget about

1259
01:00:30,600 --> 01:00:32,880
Speaker 1: who you are and how you would naturally operate in

1260
01:00:32,920 --> 01:00:35,360
Speaker 1: the workplace, and do it more like the men like,

1261
01:00:35,560 --> 01:00:38,720
Speaker 1: just embrace it's a male environment. You just got to

1262
01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:41,080
Speaker 1: deal with it, and so embrace all the male characteristics

1263
01:00:41,160 --> 01:00:43,320
Speaker 1: and just like fit yourself into that mold, even if

1264
01:00:43,360 --> 01:00:46,360
Speaker 1: that's wildly not who you are. And so I do

1265
01:00:46,440 --> 01:00:49,200
Speaker 1: think that having understands that there are some natural differences

1266
01:00:49,200 --> 01:00:52,680
Speaker 1: and that those differences bolster each other rather than you know,

1267
01:00:52,720 --> 01:00:54,960
Speaker 1: being in competition or undercutting each other, et cetera, I

1268
01:00:54,960 --> 01:00:57,720
Speaker 1: think that's a good thing. But yeah, I mean, I

1269
01:00:57,720 --> 01:01:00,640
Speaker 1: guess overall, to take it back to this, do I

1270
01:01:00,640 --> 01:01:02,680
Speaker 1: think is a good thing that men feel more comfortable

1271
01:01:02,720 --> 01:01:05,760
Speaker 1: expressing their feelings and they don't feel so like boxed

1272
01:01:05,760 --> 01:01:08,560
Speaker 1: in et cetera. Yes, but I think for men and

1273
01:01:08,680 --> 01:01:13,600
Speaker 1: women keep in mind the balance between overly self indulgent

1274
01:01:14,160 --> 01:01:18,840
Speaker 1: and narcissistic tendencies and you know, and just like a

1275
01:01:18,840 --> 01:01:22,160
Speaker 1: healthy acceptance of one's feelings, do we.

1276
01:01:22,120 --> 01:01:23,560
Speaker 3: Can just stop trying to prove ourselves.

1277
01:01:24,720 --> 01:01:28,400
Speaker 4: Speaking of actual toxic masculinity, let's move on to the

1278
01:01:28,440 --> 01:01:29,080
Speaker 4: next blood.

1279
01:01:29,680 --> 01:01:32,760
Speaker 3: Actually a pretty pretty big development.

1280
01:01:32,800 --> 01:01:34,880
Speaker 4: Whether you agree with the conclusions or not, it's it's

1281
01:01:35,200 --> 01:01:38,800
Speaker 4: pretty i think, monumental that the Justice Department finally released this.

1282
01:01:38,880 --> 01:01:40,840
Speaker 4: We can put e one up on the screen. This

1283
01:01:40,960 --> 01:01:43,480
Speaker 4: is from the New York Times. As you see, report

1284
01:01:43,560 --> 01:01:49,320
Speaker 4: on Epstein's death finds errors and mismanagement at Manhattan Jail. Now,

1285
01:01:49,400 --> 01:01:52,840
Speaker 4: of course we have all known about the errors and

1286
01:01:52,920 --> 01:01:56,760
Speaker 4: mismanagement at the Manhattan Jail. That Jeffrey Epstein was found,

1287
01:01:56,800 --> 01:01:59,120
Speaker 4: as they say, dead in his cell with a bedshape

1288
01:01:59,120 --> 01:02:02,400
Speaker 4: tied around his back in twenty nineteen, So this.

1289
01:02:02,520 --> 01:02:03,360
Speaker 3: Four years ago.

1290
01:02:03,440 --> 01:02:05,400
Speaker 4: Now, by the way, this is the New York Times.

1291
01:02:05,400 --> 01:02:09,200
Speaker 4: They say he was died by suicide, not foul play,

1292
01:02:09,320 --> 01:02:11,960
Speaker 4: after a cascade of negligence and mismanagement at the now

1293
01:02:12,000 --> 01:02:14,440
Speaker 4: shuttered Federal Germ Manhattan, where he was housed, according to

1294
01:02:14,480 --> 01:02:18,120
Speaker 4: the Justice Department's Inspector General. So an Inspector General report

1295
01:02:18,200 --> 01:02:21,200
Speaker 4: came out yesterday they say, quote after years long investigation,

1296
01:02:21,320 --> 01:02:23,520
Speaker 4: the IG said that leaders and staff members at the

1297
01:02:23,600 --> 01:02:27,520
Speaker 4: jail created an environment in which mister Epstein had every

1298
01:02:27,520 --> 01:02:29,040
Speaker 4: opportunity to kill himself.

1299
01:02:29,840 --> 01:02:32,000
Speaker 3: Really no kidding.

1300
01:02:32,280 --> 01:02:35,040
Speaker 4: The IG, Michael Horowitz a name that might be familiar

1301
01:02:35,080 --> 01:02:37,920
Speaker 4: to you, referred to employees, including one supervisor, for criminal

1302
01:02:37,960 --> 01:02:40,880
Speaker 4: prosecution by the US Attorney for the Southern District of

1303
01:02:40,880 --> 01:02:44,800
Speaker 4: New York after they were caught falsifying records, but prosecutors

1304
01:02:44,840 --> 01:02:47,800
Speaker 4: declined to bring charges. The report said, So, note right there,

1305
01:02:48,120 --> 01:02:53,560
Speaker 4: they're recommending criminal prosecution for record falsification, and then the

1306
01:02:53,680 --> 01:02:57,240
Speaker 4: charges are declined to be brought. So you have records

1307
01:02:57,280 --> 01:03:00,360
Speaker 4: being falsified when it comes to Jeffrey Epstein, arge just

1308
01:03:00,400 --> 01:03:04,760
Speaker 4: declining to be brought when it comes to those falsified records.

1309
01:03:05,040 --> 01:03:07,640
Speaker 4: And the IG continues this from the New York Times,

1310
01:03:08,080 --> 01:03:10,760
Speaker 4: they say, IG says that staff members at the jail

1311
01:03:10,800 --> 01:03:14,240
Speaker 4: quote engaged in significant misconduct and dereliction of their duties.

1312
01:03:14,600 --> 01:03:17,360
Speaker 4: And this is investigators who apparently come through one hundred

1313
01:03:17,400 --> 01:03:20,120
Speaker 4: thousand records and did dozens of interviews, quote, did not

1314
01:03:20,280 --> 01:03:23,760
Speaker 4: uncover evidence, according to the IG, that contradicted the fbis

1315
01:03:23,840 --> 01:03:26,760
Speaker 4: finding that mister Epstein had died by his own hand

1316
01:03:26,760 --> 01:03:28,760
Speaker 4: with a makeshift news. Now that is very different than

1317
01:03:28,800 --> 01:03:31,640
Speaker 4: saying he definitely died with a makeshift news. That's saying

1318
01:03:31,680 --> 01:03:35,720
Speaker 4: you don't have evidence to contradict the FBI's finding right, like,

1319
01:03:35,720 --> 01:03:38,640
Speaker 4: you're not meeting the preponderance of evidence or whatever standard

1320
01:03:38,680 --> 01:03:42,160
Speaker 4: that they use. And we've all known again about as

1321
01:03:42,560 --> 01:03:45,680
Speaker 4: Bill Barr said, these quote serious irregularities.

1322
01:03:45,840 --> 01:03:47,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, so this is a pattern.

1323
01:03:47,200 --> 01:03:49,640
Speaker 4: Obviously going back to two thousand and seven, two thousand

1324
01:03:49,680 --> 01:03:52,560
Speaker 4: and seven of law enforcement irregularities as it comes to

1325
01:03:52,640 --> 01:03:55,080
Speaker 4: Jeffrey Epstein. So where you have I think some of

1326
01:03:55,080 --> 01:03:57,880
Speaker 4: the media establishments circulating this as sort of the final

1327
01:03:57,960 --> 01:04:01,080
Speaker 4: nail in the coffin of Epstein conspiracy theories that IG

1328
01:04:01,240 --> 01:04:05,600
Speaker 4: themselves came out, this raise continues to raise even more questions.

1329
01:04:05,720 --> 01:04:08,640
Speaker 4: And again in IG that's the government sort of internal

1330
01:04:08,680 --> 01:04:13,240
Speaker 4: audit system. You have government folks go through the government's

1331
01:04:13,280 --> 01:04:16,080
Speaker 4: records and are supposed to hold the government to account.

1332
01:04:16,120 --> 01:04:20,040
Speaker 4: Sometimes IG's can be sort of the whitewashing force, where

1333
01:04:20,040 --> 01:04:22,680
Speaker 4: they sort of have this what's the best way to

1334
01:04:22,720 --> 01:04:24,840
Speaker 4: put it, They'll have this kind of smoke screen, like

1335
01:04:24,880 --> 01:04:27,040
Speaker 4: we did find some things wrong, but the thing that

1336
01:04:27,080 --> 01:04:29,880
Speaker 4: you think was really wrong that we can't really prove,

1337
01:04:29,960 --> 01:04:32,640
Speaker 4: so like just forget about that. That's how I'm reading

1338
01:04:32,680 --> 01:04:34,880
Speaker 4: this IG report and the coverage of it. Again, I'm

1339
01:04:34,880 --> 01:04:37,640
Speaker 4: not saying definitively one thing happened or the other.

1340
01:04:37,720 --> 01:04:39,360
Speaker 3: Right, this definitely isn't either.

1341
01:04:39,960 --> 01:04:41,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think this is going to put to

1342
01:04:41,320 --> 01:04:45,480
Speaker 1: bit the conspiracy theories. No hot take there. I thought

1343
01:04:45,560 --> 01:04:48,080
Speaker 1: this language was interesting, they say. Listen. They found no

1344
01:04:48,160 --> 01:04:51,400
Speaker 1: evidence of a plan to kill mister Rabstein, however, described

1345
01:04:51,440 --> 01:04:55,520
Speaker 1: a remarkable, at times unexplained succession of circumstances that made

1346
01:04:55,520 --> 01:04:57,320
Speaker 1: it easy for him to kill himself. For reasons that

1347
01:04:57,360 --> 01:05:00,880
Speaker 1: remain unclear, the jail staff members allow mister Epstein to

1348
01:05:01,120 --> 01:05:05,080
Speaker 1: hord extra blankets, linen's betting, and clothing, even though he

1349
01:05:05,160 --> 01:05:08,080
Speaker 1: had already tried to hang himself earlier, so they knew

1350
01:05:08,120 --> 01:05:10,480
Speaker 1: this man was on suicide watch. They knew that he

1351
01:05:10,520 --> 01:05:14,360
Speaker 1: had literally tried to hang himself before, and they're still like,

1352
01:05:14,560 --> 01:05:18,240
Speaker 1: here's some extra blankets. Yeah, here's some extra sheets, and

1353
01:05:18,280 --> 01:05:21,360
Speaker 1: that's what he ends up using to hang himself. Also

1354
01:05:21,440 --> 01:05:24,000
Speaker 1: thought this was interesting. They spoke to a former cellmate

1355
01:05:24,320 --> 01:05:28,280
Speaker 1: of Epstein who said that he would threaten staff members

1356
01:05:28,360 --> 01:05:31,320
Speaker 1: at the jail sort of try to throw his political

1357
01:05:31,360 --> 01:05:35,320
Speaker 1: weight around still even while he's an inmate, and he

1358
01:05:35,480 --> 01:05:38,160
Speaker 1: would tell staff members that he was going to report them,

1359
01:05:38,640 --> 01:05:41,520
Speaker 1: and they were sort of afraid of him, and so,

1360
01:05:41,920 --> 01:05:44,760
Speaker 1: according again to this former cellmate, he said that led

1361
01:05:44,800 --> 01:05:48,200
Speaker 1: them to relax some restrictions, such as a prohibition against

1362
01:05:48,320 --> 01:05:52,800
Speaker 1: keeping pens. Pens can be used as a weapon in

1363
01:05:52,840 --> 01:05:56,880
Speaker 1: certain circumstances as well, and this former cellmate had said

1364
01:05:56,880 --> 01:05:59,520
Speaker 1: he was so concerned about Epstein killing himself that he

1365
01:05:59,560 --> 01:06:02,440
Speaker 1: literally I'm like, please don't kill yourself. And Epstein was like, oh,

1366
01:06:02,440 --> 01:06:04,880
Speaker 1: I'm not going to so listen. With this case, I

1367
01:06:04,880 --> 01:06:07,320
Speaker 1: guess there would be nothing that would surprise me. Is

1368
01:06:07,320 --> 01:06:09,920
Speaker 1: it crazy for me to imagine that the Pure prisons

1369
01:06:10,080 --> 01:06:13,520
Speaker 1: is such a cesspool and so poorly managed that even

1370
01:06:13,680 --> 01:06:17,360
Speaker 1: someone who is as high profile as Jeffrey Epstein literally

1371
01:06:17,480 --> 01:06:20,360
Speaker 1: maybe one of the most notorious inmates at the time,

1372
01:06:21,280 --> 01:06:24,520
Speaker 1: that they would be so laxed that they're lying on

1373
01:06:24,600 --> 01:06:27,920
Speaker 1: their records. You know, that may have just been routine

1374
01:06:28,200 --> 01:06:30,600
Speaker 1: for these prison guards that they were, you know, always

1375
01:06:30,600 --> 01:06:32,360
Speaker 1: saying that they were doing the rounds when they really

1376
01:06:32,400 --> 01:06:34,480
Speaker 1: were just like sleeping and hanging out and doing nothing.

1377
01:06:35,400 --> 01:06:38,440
Speaker 1: That they would not follow protocol even when there was

1378
01:06:38,520 --> 01:06:40,880
Speaker 1: such a clear suicide threat, that wouldn't shock me. It

1379
01:06:40,880 --> 01:06:43,280
Speaker 1: also wouldn't shock me if there were other nefarious things

1380
01:06:43,280 --> 01:06:44,960
Speaker 1: afoot because of who this man is and what he

1381
01:06:45,040 --> 01:06:47,120
Speaker 1: was into and what he knew on so many powerful people.

1382
01:06:47,240 --> 01:06:50,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly, I think, you know, irregularities obviously do happen,

1383
01:06:50,160 --> 01:06:52,400
Speaker 4: but this is a case again where there's a pattern

1384
01:06:52,440 --> 01:06:55,600
Speaker 4: of irregularity dating back with his relationship with law enforcement

1385
01:06:55,640 --> 01:06:57,720
Speaker 4: at least like two thousand and seven. And so at

1386
01:06:57,720 --> 01:07:01,480
Speaker 4: that point, when you have so many regularities and very

1387
01:07:01,520 --> 01:07:05,040
Speaker 4: obvious connections to intelligence like this is reported out, Yeah,

1388
01:07:05,120 --> 01:07:08,680
Speaker 4: that combination of things puts you at a really obvious place,

1389
01:07:08,720 --> 01:07:12,560
Speaker 4: which is there's something deeper happening here. And another interesting

1390
01:07:12,560 --> 01:07:15,360
Speaker 4: thing I think about this is the way, you know,

1391
01:07:15,640 --> 01:07:20,160
Speaker 4: usually conspiracies aren't really conspiracies, they're incompetence. This case, I

1392
01:07:20,160 --> 01:07:24,360
Speaker 4: think is actually probably there was some type of conspiratorial

1393
01:07:24,400 --> 01:07:26,760
Speaker 4: behavior happening on behalf of the government, happened on behalf

1394
01:07:26,760 --> 01:07:30,400
Speaker 4: of different interests, And the way that is actually pulled

1395
01:07:30,400 --> 01:07:33,440
Speaker 4: off is people don't know, like only very few people know,

1396
01:07:34,320 --> 01:07:36,320
Speaker 4: and we've seen that be the case. So it makes

1397
01:07:36,760 --> 01:07:39,280
Speaker 4: perfect sense that you'd have some people at the prison

1398
01:07:39,680 --> 01:07:43,800
Speaker 4: worried about Epstein killing himself and taking some steps to

1399
01:07:43,840 --> 01:07:46,439
Speaker 4: make sure that Jeffrey Epstein doesn't kill himself, and then

1400
01:07:46,480 --> 01:07:48,160
Speaker 4: we just find out not all of those steps were

1401
01:07:48,160 --> 01:07:50,440
Speaker 4: taken by every person, and that's where you end up

1402
01:07:50,440 --> 01:07:53,600
Speaker 4: having to falsify records and not prosecute people for the

1403
01:07:53,600 --> 01:07:56,360
Speaker 4: falsification of those records because who knows what comes out

1404
01:07:56,400 --> 01:07:59,440
Speaker 4: in that trial. So again, this pattern I think is

1405
01:07:59,800 --> 01:08:01,000
Speaker 4: abundantly clear.

1406
01:08:01,200 --> 01:08:05,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's well said. All right, Emily, what

1407
01:08:05,960 --> 01:08:06,720
Speaker 1: are you looking at all? Right?

1408
01:08:06,720 --> 01:08:08,680
Speaker 4: Well, I actually want to start by putting this headline

1409
01:08:08,760 --> 01:08:11,320
Speaker 4: up on the screen. This is from the Washington Post,

1410
01:08:11,440 --> 01:08:14,320
Speaker 4: and you may actually be relieved by what you see

1411
01:08:14,440 --> 01:08:16,519
Speaker 4: or what you're hearing, So I just want to warn

1412
01:08:16,600 --> 01:08:18,120
Speaker 4: you that it could be false.

1413
01:08:18,160 --> 01:08:22,240
Speaker 3: Hope. Ex Congresswoman Liz Cheney says this tweet from the Washington.

1414
01:08:21,880 --> 01:08:25,160
Speaker 4: Post offered a blunt assessment of her former profession Monday Night.

1415
01:08:25,160 --> 01:08:27,640
Speaker 3: Quote, what we've done in our politics.

1416
01:08:27,200 --> 01:08:31,200
Speaker 4: Is create a situation where we're electing idiots. I know,

1417
01:08:31,439 --> 01:08:34,640
Speaker 4: it's perfect, right, Liz Cheney has finally come to the realization,

1418
01:08:35,320 --> 01:08:39,439
Speaker 4: has finally had a glimmer of self awareness about her family.

1419
01:08:39,840 --> 01:08:40,559
Speaker 3: Of course, I'm.

1420
01:08:40,479 --> 01:08:42,960
Speaker 4: Kidding, she's talking about other people. She's not one of

1421
01:08:42,960 --> 01:08:47,000
Speaker 4: the idiots. She would never count herself among this class

1422
01:08:47,080 --> 01:08:50,320
Speaker 4: of idiots, which absolutely exists. Actually, at the Federalists for

1423
01:08:50,360 --> 01:08:52,960
Speaker 4: a while we had stickers with a great Bendominich quote

1424
01:08:53,000 --> 01:08:55,799
Speaker 4: that said, consider the possibility we are led by idiots.

1425
01:08:55,800 --> 01:08:58,439
Speaker 4: That doesn't just apply to government, that also applies to

1426
01:08:58,479 --> 01:09:00,519
Speaker 4: the business sector, the media sector.

1427
01:09:00,640 --> 01:09:02,000
Speaker 3: It's all true across the board.

1428
01:09:02,000 --> 01:09:04,920
Speaker 4: And lest you think Liz Cheney has finally come down

1429
01:09:05,000 --> 01:09:07,360
Speaker 4: and realized it and is ready to grapple with it

1430
01:09:07,400 --> 01:09:10,200
Speaker 4: and come on breaking points and talk to Sager and

1431
01:09:10,240 --> 01:09:13,200
Speaker 4: Crystal about why it is that we keep electing idiots

1432
01:09:14,000 --> 01:09:16,920
Speaker 4: like herself, No, it's everyone else as an idiot.

1433
01:09:16,960 --> 01:09:17,599
Speaker 3: And she was in.

1434
01:09:17,840 --> 01:09:20,840
Speaker 4: This came from a conversation that she had on Monday

1435
01:09:20,920 --> 01:09:23,479
Speaker 4: night at the ninety second Street Why in New York City.

1436
01:09:23,760 --> 01:09:28,320
Speaker 4: It was moderated by David Rubinstein, who asked basically if

1437
01:09:28,600 --> 01:09:31,080
Speaker 4: she would be interested in running as an independent, not

1438
01:09:31,160 --> 01:09:33,439
Speaker 4: as a Republican, but as an independent next year for

1439
01:09:33,600 --> 01:09:38,640
Speaker 4: president if she was hypothetically given data polling information that

1440
01:09:38,800 --> 01:09:43,080
Speaker 4: showed her run would hurt Trump. And she replied kind

1441
01:09:43,080 --> 01:09:45,160
Speaker 4: of cryptically, she said, quote, look, I think that the

1442
01:09:45,200 --> 01:09:49,519
Speaker 4: country right now faces hugely chaled, challenging and fundamentally important issues,

1443
01:09:49,720 --> 01:09:51,479
Speaker 4: and what we've done in our politics is create a

1444
01:09:51,520 --> 01:09:53,679
Speaker 4: situation where we're electing idiots.

1445
01:09:53,920 --> 01:09:55,200
Speaker 3: The audience laughs.

1446
01:09:55,280 --> 01:09:58,240
Speaker 4: According to the post, so Cheney continues, I don't look

1447
01:09:58,240 --> 01:09:59,640
Speaker 4: at it through the lens of is this what I

1448
01:09:59,640 --> 01:10:01,479
Speaker 4: should or what I shouldn't do. I look at it

1449
01:10:01,520 --> 01:10:03,679
Speaker 4: through the lens of how do we elect serious people?

1450
01:10:03,880 --> 01:10:07,400
Speaker 4: And I think electing serious people can't be partisan, you know,

1451
01:10:07,439 --> 01:10:09,960
Speaker 4: because of the situation that we're in, She adds, where

1452
01:10:09,960 --> 01:10:12,520
Speaker 4: we have a major party candidate who's trying to unravel

1453
01:10:12,560 --> 01:10:14,840
Speaker 4: our democracy. And I don't say that lightly. We have

1454
01:10:14,880 --> 01:10:16,800
Speaker 4: to think about, all right, what kinds of alliances are

1455
01:10:16,840 --> 01:10:19,719
Speaker 4: necessary to defeat him? And those are the alliances we've

1456
01:10:19,720 --> 01:10:22,080
Speaker 4: got to build across party lines.

1457
01:10:22,240 --> 01:10:23,160
Speaker 3: This is a great example.

1458
01:10:23,240 --> 01:10:26,040
Speaker 4: When people in Washington talk about by partisanship, what they

1459
01:10:26,120 --> 01:10:28,559
Speaker 4: generally mean is grift and corruption. Now that isn't to

1460
01:10:28,600 --> 01:10:32,639
Speaker 4: mean bipartisanship doesn't have benefits. Of course it does. We're

1461
01:10:32,640 --> 01:10:35,280
Speaker 4: here on a show called Counterpoints that is predicated on

1462
01:10:35,320 --> 01:10:38,840
Speaker 4: the notion there is good conversations and constructive conversations that

1463
01:10:38,920 --> 01:10:41,360
Speaker 4: can have that can be had across sort of the

1464
01:10:41,360 --> 01:10:44,080
Speaker 4: ideological divide, and in fact are necessary to have, But

1465
01:10:44,120 --> 01:10:46,519
Speaker 4: what Liz Cheney wants is the exact opposite of that.

1466
01:10:46,560 --> 01:10:50,040
Speaker 4: She believes in bipartisanship for the sake of punching down

1467
01:10:50,400 --> 01:10:53,960
Speaker 4: at any threats to the political establishment, which is why

1468
01:10:54,000 --> 01:10:57,360
Speaker 4: she now has to deem everyone else an idiot who

1469
01:10:57,439 --> 01:11:02,599
Speaker 4: could possibly possibly come with a challenge to her position

1470
01:11:02,640 --> 01:11:05,040
Speaker 4: on this. And I actually think it's really funny where

1471
01:11:05,080 --> 01:11:08,559
Speaker 4: she says, particularly quote, I think electing serious people can't

1472
01:11:08,560 --> 01:11:11,839
Speaker 4: be partisan. This is a woman who hired an ABC

1473
01:11:12,120 --> 01:11:16,679
Speaker 4: producer to create a spectacle about the January six hearings,

1474
01:11:16,720 --> 01:11:18,960
Speaker 4: and by the way, as somebody who was covering January

1475
01:11:19,000 --> 01:11:21,400
Speaker 4: six on the ground, and it was one of the

1476
01:11:21,479 --> 01:11:23,400
Speaker 4: craziest things I've ever seen, one of the most tragic

1477
01:11:23,439 --> 01:11:26,640
Speaker 4: things I've ever seen. For a number of reasons. I

1478
01:11:26,680 --> 01:11:29,200
Speaker 4: thought the idea that she would intentionally orchestrate a media

1479
01:11:29,240 --> 01:11:32,080
Speaker 4: circus around those hearings, which should have been very serious,

1480
01:11:32,160 --> 01:11:35,360
Speaker 4: should have genuinely been bipartisan and not by partisan, with

1481
01:11:35,720 --> 01:11:39,080
Speaker 4: Adam Kinsinger and Liz Cheney being your Republicans on the committee,

1482
01:11:39,120 --> 01:11:41,600
Speaker 4: but actually allowing different voices.

1483
01:11:41,280 --> 01:11:41,680
Speaker 3: To come in.

1484
01:11:41,760 --> 01:11:44,559
Speaker 4: Because we've seen as much as you believe Republicans may

1485
01:11:44,600 --> 01:11:46,320
Speaker 4: have run in the wrong direction when it comes to

1486
01:11:46,400 --> 01:11:50,120
Speaker 4: J six so have Democrats. And there are serious things

1487
01:11:50,160 --> 01:11:52,320
Speaker 4: that should be discussed when it comes to the FBI,

1488
01:11:52,439 --> 01:11:54,519
Speaker 4: serious things that should be discussed when it comes to

1489
01:11:54,880 --> 01:11:58,200
Speaker 4: electoral law and whether or not anybody should be challenging it,

1490
01:11:58,240 --> 01:12:01,960
Speaker 4: whether it's Democrats in twenty sixteen or Republicans in twenty twenty.

1491
01:12:02,200 --> 01:12:05,960
Speaker 4: But being serious is not hiring an ABC producer and

1492
01:12:06,040 --> 01:12:12,720
Speaker 4: intentionally scripting producing congressional hearings in prime time to be

1493
01:12:13,160 --> 01:12:15,920
Speaker 4: what she turned them into, which was not serious at all,

1494
01:12:16,120 --> 01:12:19,520
Speaker 4: And that she now has the audacity to say it's unseerious,

1495
01:12:19,560 --> 01:12:21,800
Speaker 4: that everyone else is unserious, but her that she is

1496
01:12:21,840 --> 01:12:26,240
Speaker 4: the arbiter of what constitutes seriousness and politics is laughable.

1497
01:12:26,479 --> 01:12:29,479
Speaker 4: But I also wanted to zero in on her talking

1498
01:12:29,520 --> 01:12:33,800
Speaker 4: about this major party candidate who's trying to quote unravel

1499
01:12:34,080 --> 01:12:39,560
Speaker 4: our democracy, unravel our democracy coming from Liz Cheney, the daughter.

1500
01:12:39,360 --> 01:12:41,479
Speaker 3: Of you know who. She's the daughter of.

1501
01:12:41,439 --> 01:12:44,639
Speaker 4: The one in on Linden Cheney, the architect of our

1502
01:12:44,680 --> 01:12:47,840
Speaker 4: policy in Iraq and Afghanistan, or one of the leading

1503
01:12:47,920 --> 01:12:50,680
Speaker 4: architects of our policy in Iraq and Afghanistan, which she

1504
01:12:50,800 --> 01:12:55,240
Speaker 4: has defended to say that somebody who's actually tried to

1505
01:12:55,520 --> 01:12:58,439
Speaker 4: unravel those wars or to end those wars, is the

1506
01:12:58,479 --> 01:13:01,840
Speaker 4: greatest threat to our democracy or is a threat that

1507
01:13:01,960 --> 01:13:05,679
Speaker 4: is going to unravel our democracy. Maybe that's that's true.

1508
01:13:05,680 --> 01:13:08,120
Speaker 4: Maybe you can make that argument about Donald Trump. You

1509
01:13:08,160 --> 01:13:09,800
Speaker 4: know who doesn't have a leg to stand on when

1510
01:13:09,800 --> 01:13:12,200
Speaker 4: it comes to making that argument is Liz Cheney. Because

1511
01:13:12,400 --> 01:13:16,760
Speaker 4: things that actually do also unravel our democracy, our constitutional,

1512
01:13:16,800 --> 01:13:20,640
Speaker 4: republican system of government are wars that are not properly predicated,

1513
01:13:20,680 --> 01:13:23,559
Speaker 4: where you send working classmen to die thousands of miles

1514
01:13:23,600 --> 01:13:25,200
Speaker 4: away for a lie.

1515
01:13:25,600 --> 01:13:27,440
Speaker 3: That is a threat to our democracy.

1516
01:13:27,520 --> 01:13:30,760
Speaker 4: So for Liz Cheney then to beginning these positive this

1517
01:13:30,840 --> 01:13:34,240
Speaker 4: positive coverage in the Washington Post and the New York

1518
01:13:34,280 --> 01:13:36,559
Speaker 4: Times and wherever else she gets quoted, to be at

1519
01:13:36,600 --> 01:13:40,360
Speaker 4: the ninety second and why the ninety second won't and

1520
01:13:40,920 --> 01:13:44,880
Speaker 4: to be at the ninety second street why in New

1521
01:13:44,960 --> 01:13:48,920
Speaker 4: York having this interview is pretty interesting too, because that's

1522
01:13:48,960 --> 01:13:52,519
Speaker 4: where oftentimes you see like media elites congregate and do

1523
01:13:52,600 --> 01:13:56,200
Speaker 4: these high profile conversations where they're very thoughtful and the

1524
01:13:56,320 --> 01:13:59,160
Speaker 4: NPR tote bag crowd can come and feel serious for

1525
01:13:59,240 --> 01:14:04,680
Speaker 4: a night. That is a statement on how absurd the

1526
01:14:04,680 --> 01:14:08,720
Speaker 4: political establishment in this country is that when they decide

1527
01:14:08,840 --> 01:14:12,320
Speaker 4: the Iraq war has gone really badly, they'll sort of

1528
01:14:12,360 --> 01:14:14,240
Speaker 4: be they'll sort of turn on it, right, but they

1529
01:14:14,520 --> 01:14:16,479
Speaker 4: they'll push it and then turn on it. They'll help

1530
01:14:16,520 --> 01:14:21,240
Speaker 4: the intelligence community float bad information that predicates a war,

1531
01:14:21,400 --> 01:14:23,840
Speaker 4: and then when it starts to go poorly, turn on

1532
01:14:24,160 --> 01:14:25,760
Speaker 4: on the war, turn on George W.

1533
01:14:25,840 --> 01:14:26,280
Speaker 3: Bush.

1534
01:14:26,400 --> 01:14:29,759
Speaker 4: But then when Donald Trump comes along and someone wants

1535
01:14:29,800 --> 01:14:32,519
Speaker 4: to go after him as the sort of blunt force object,

1536
01:14:32,560 --> 01:14:35,120
Speaker 4: the media is suddenly not just going to treat them

1537
01:14:35,280 --> 01:14:39,760
Speaker 4: as a utility, but actually say fet them and say

1538
01:14:39,760 --> 01:14:41,639
Speaker 4: that this is a serious person, like this person does

1539
01:14:41,720 --> 01:14:44,840
Speaker 4: have the moral standing, And in this case, what she's

1540
01:14:44,840 --> 01:14:48,720
Speaker 4: saying is essentially what she wants to do to our democracy,

1541
01:14:48,800 --> 01:14:52,320
Speaker 4: to the sort of republican system of government, is create

1542
01:14:52,439 --> 01:14:56,000
Speaker 4: threats from normal Americans who disagree with the political establishment,

1543
01:14:56,120 --> 01:14:58,880
Speaker 4: spy on them, and start more wars. So it sounds

1544
01:14:58,960 --> 01:15:00,960
Speaker 4: very serious to me, just not in the way that

1545
01:15:01,000 --> 01:15:02,439
Speaker 4: she thinks it is. By the way, it also sounds

1546
01:15:02,560 --> 01:15:04,680
Speaker 4: very idiotic to me, just not in the way she

1547
01:15:04,760 --> 01:15:05,280
Speaker 4: thinks it is.

1548
01:15:05,640 --> 01:15:08,400
Speaker 3: Crystal. The audacity of lis Cheney and the audacity of

1549
01:15:11,320 --> 01:15:12,880
Speaker 3: Crystal what have you got for us today.

1550
01:15:13,120 --> 01:15:17,519
Speaker 1: Well, guys, the commercial real estate crash may well be

1551
01:15:17,840 --> 01:15:20,120
Speaker 1: upon us. Now, let's take a look at what is

1552
01:15:20,160 --> 01:15:23,160
Speaker 1: coming out of New York City in terms of latest

1553
01:15:23,360 --> 01:15:26,160
Speaker 1: sales statistics. Put this first tweet up on the screen.

1554
01:15:26,200 --> 01:15:26,519
Speaker 6: Guys.

1555
01:15:27,000 --> 01:15:31,520
Speaker 1: So in New York, according to important Financial Times, buildings

1556
01:15:31,560 --> 01:15:34,840
Speaker 1: are selling for less than the value of the land

1557
01:15:35,040 --> 01:15:38,360
Speaker 1: that they sit on. We are seeing prices lower than

1558
01:15:38,400 --> 01:15:41,519
Speaker 1: they have been in twenty years. Imagine if your home

1559
01:15:41,640 --> 01:15:43,960
Speaker 1: value declined, like lost all of its value that was

1560
01:15:43,960 --> 01:15:46,920
Speaker 1: obtained over the last twenty years. I'm not sure people

1561
01:15:46,960 --> 01:15:49,280
Speaker 1: have come to terms with how long the storm will

1562
01:15:49,280 --> 01:15:52,120
Speaker 1: hover and how much damage it will do. Go ahead

1563
01:15:52,120 --> 01:15:54,439
Speaker 1: and put this full Financial Times report up on the

1564
01:15:54,439 --> 01:15:56,200
Speaker 1: screen because I want to get into a bit of

1565
01:15:56,200 --> 01:15:58,320
Speaker 1: this now. This is a topic that Soccer and I've

1566
01:15:58,320 --> 01:15:59,960
Speaker 1: been talking about for a little while, as did a monologue.

1567
01:16:00,200 --> 01:16:01,679
Speaker 1: I look back about a month and a half ago

1568
01:16:02,040 --> 01:16:05,240
Speaker 1: about this coming financial storm. Well, Financial Times headline here

1569
01:16:05,320 --> 01:16:08,320
Speaker 1: is pretty dire. They say, financial storm bears down on

1570
01:16:08,479 --> 01:16:13,120
Speaker 1: us commercial real estate. Long awaited reckoning arrives as building

1571
01:16:13,160 --> 01:16:16,200
Speaker 1: loans come due at a time of scarcer credit. They

1572
01:16:16,560 --> 01:16:19,639
Speaker 1: take a look at a twenty twenty story tower at

1573
01:16:19,680 --> 01:16:22,320
Speaker 1: five twenty nine Fifth Avenue that they say stands out

1574
01:16:22,320 --> 01:16:24,920
Speaker 1: from the other buildings around Grand Central Station for the

1575
01:16:24,960 --> 01:16:27,840
Speaker 1: surreal pink designs of an Alice in Wonderland inspired art

1576
01:16:27,920 --> 01:16:31,479
Speaker 1: exhibit installed to fill vacant retail space on its ground floor.

1577
01:16:31,840 --> 01:16:34,120
Speaker 1: It's also remarkable as one among a small number of

1578
01:16:34,120 --> 01:16:37,280
Speaker 1: towers that have recently changed hands, giving a clue as

1579
01:16:37,280 --> 01:16:39,839
Speaker 1: the value of Manhattan's older offices now that the commercial

1580
01:16:39,840 --> 01:16:42,720
Speaker 1: real estate sector has emerged from a historic era of

1581
01:16:42,840 --> 01:16:46,439
Speaker 1: ultra cheap money. Silver Sign Properties sold the building three

1582
01:16:46,479 --> 01:16:48,920
Speaker 1: months ago for one hundred and five million dollars in

1583
01:16:49,000 --> 01:16:52,240
Speaker 1: price per square foot terms. That was even less than

1584
01:16:52,280 --> 01:16:55,439
Speaker 1: a plot of land across the street commanded in just

1585
01:16:55,520 --> 01:17:01,880
Speaker 1: twenty fifteen. There's some incredible detail here, but we went

1586
01:17:01,920 --> 01:17:04,519
Speaker 1: over this recently of some of the factors that led

1587
01:17:04,560 --> 01:17:07,280
Speaker 1: to this, and just to remind folks, there's a lot

1588
01:17:07,360 --> 01:17:10,240
Speaker 1: going on here. First of all, just as the housing

1589
01:17:10,320 --> 01:17:14,960
Speaker 1: market has been massively impacted and affordability massively impacted by

1590
01:17:15,000 --> 01:17:17,599
Speaker 1: FED rate hikes, the same thing is happening here with

1591
01:17:17,760 --> 01:17:22,040
Speaker 1: commercial real estate. Furthermore, you have what has been described

1592
01:17:22,120 --> 01:17:26,559
Speaker 1: as a wall of debt one point five trillion dollars

1593
01:17:26,640 --> 01:17:29,720
Speaker 1: of debt that is coming due on these commercial real

1594
01:17:29,800 --> 01:17:34,439
Speaker 1: estate properties in just the next few years. So if

1595
01:17:34,479 --> 01:17:39,240
Speaker 1: you had these mortgages, these loans at very low interest rates,

1596
01:17:39,560 --> 01:17:41,280
Speaker 1: and now you're in a position where you have to

1597
01:17:41,360 --> 01:17:44,720
Speaker 1: refinance and the rate has gone way way up, it's

1598
01:17:44,760 --> 01:17:46,680
Speaker 1: going to be tough for a lot of people to

1599
01:17:46,720 --> 01:17:49,519
Speaker 1: be able to make that work. Some of that bill

1600
01:17:49,600 --> 01:17:53,760
Speaker 1: is coming due now. By the way, overwhelmingly that one

1601
01:17:53,800 --> 01:17:56,880
Speaker 1: point five trillion dollars in debt is hold held by

1602
01:17:57,000 --> 01:17:59,600
Speaker 1: small and medium banks, which, as we know from the

1603
01:17:59,640 --> 01:18:03,479
Speaker 1: Silicon Valley bank collapse and several other bank collapse have

1604
01:18:03,600 --> 01:18:07,080
Speaker 1: been under tremendous pressure also because of the FED interest

1605
01:18:07,160 --> 01:18:10,840
Speaker 1: rate hikes. So we've already seen banks moving to get

1606
01:18:10,880 --> 01:18:13,320
Speaker 1: out of commercial real estate and to try to sell

1607
01:18:13,360 --> 01:18:15,880
Speaker 1: off their portfolio, even at a loss, to try to

1608
01:18:15,880 --> 01:18:20,120
Speaker 1: get ahead of this coming reckoning. But the big story

1609
01:18:20,160 --> 01:18:24,400
Speaker 1: here is remote work. During the pandemic, you know, workers

1610
01:18:25,040 --> 01:18:28,000
Speaker 1: forced to work from home. Now many of them do not,

1611
01:18:28,120 --> 01:18:29,960
Speaker 1: for good reason, want to come back to the office

1612
01:18:30,040 --> 01:18:31,639
Speaker 1: or want to come back to the office full time.

1613
01:18:32,160 --> 01:18:36,240
Speaker 1: So you have all of this vacant office space, especially

1614
01:18:36,320 --> 01:18:39,519
Speaker 1: in New York, especially in San Francisco is probably the

1615
01:18:39,680 --> 01:18:43,080
Speaker 1: hardest hit of all cities, also in LA but really

1616
01:18:43,080 --> 01:18:46,639
Speaker 1: in cities across the country where you just don't need

1617
01:18:47,080 --> 01:18:50,080
Speaker 1: nearly as much office space as you did just a

1618
01:18:50,080 --> 01:18:53,160
Speaker 1: few years ago. So some of the estimates are that

1619
01:18:53,320 --> 01:18:58,880
Speaker 1: office space valuations could drop by as much as forty percent.

1620
01:19:00,560 --> 01:19:02,960
Speaker 1: What that means to give you a few of the

1621
01:19:03,040 --> 01:19:05,519
Speaker 1: numbers here in terms of you know, how many workers

1622
01:19:05,520 --> 01:19:08,839
Speaker 1: are working remote and how quickly this has dramatically shifted.

1623
01:19:09,240 --> 01:19:12,960
Speaker 1: Back in twenty eighteen, you only had six percent of

1624
01:19:13,000 --> 01:19:16,360
Speaker 1: workers nationwide who were working remote. In twenty twenty three,

1625
01:19:16,400 --> 01:19:19,080
Speaker 1: you have more than a quarter, So twenty six percent

1626
01:19:19,360 --> 01:19:22,759
Speaker 1: of workers who are now working remote. Sixty six percent

1627
01:19:22,920 --> 01:19:26,599
Speaker 1: of workers work from home at least some of the time.

1628
01:19:27,280 --> 01:19:29,719
Speaker 1: As I said before, this obviously had a huge impact

1629
01:19:29,760 --> 01:19:34,680
Speaker 1: on office space. Less than half of offices are occupied nationwide,

1630
01:19:34,880 --> 01:19:39,160
Speaker 1: less than half. Back just a few years ago, occupancy

1631
01:19:39,240 --> 01:19:42,759
Speaker 1: rates were in the ninety percentile. So this is radically

1632
01:19:42,760 --> 01:19:45,920
Speaker 1: different from what we've seen. You know, to go back

1633
01:19:45,920 --> 01:19:48,760
Speaker 1: to the Financial Times report that was specific to New York,

1634
01:19:49,560 --> 01:19:53,360
Speaker 1: there was one one analyst there who was asked I

1635
01:19:53,360 --> 01:19:56,320
Speaker 1: think this was a broker who was asked how bad

1636
01:19:56,360 --> 01:19:58,479
Speaker 1: are things right now in the city of New York.

1637
01:19:59,000 --> 01:20:02,719
Speaker 1: They estimated that only the top ten percent of office

1638
01:20:02,720 --> 01:20:05,840
Speaker 1: buildings in the city were not distressed, either in terms

1639
01:20:05,840 --> 01:20:08,519
Speaker 1: of the level of debt or of occupancy. Quote, I

1640
01:20:08,560 --> 01:20:10,840
Speaker 1: think we are on the edge front edge of the

1641
01:20:10,840 --> 01:20:16,240
Speaker 1: forced sales. So really take that in. Ninety percent of

1642
01:20:16,240 --> 01:20:21,360
Speaker 1: offices in New York City are distressed. Ninety percent. And

1643
01:20:21,400 --> 01:20:24,439
Speaker 1: as I said before, the debt is about to come

1644
01:20:24,520 --> 01:20:28,280
Speaker 1: do and if this sale and others like it, where

1645
01:20:28,400 --> 01:20:30,880
Speaker 1: buildings are being sold for less than the plot of

1646
01:20:31,000 --> 01:20:33,800
Speaker 1: land was worth just a few years ago, it would

1647
01:20:33,840 --> 01:20:37,720
Speaker 1: certainly appear that the reckoning has arrived and emily to

1648
01:20:37,760 --> 01:20:41,800
Speaker 1: me increasingly the more that I've looked.

1649
01:20:42,920 --> 01:20:45,720
Speaker 3: Well, Crystal, thank you for joining us on Counterpoints. I

1650
01:20:45,760 --> 01:20:49,200
Speaker 3: loved it. It was great, always a blast. Also, I

1651
01:20:49,280 --> 01:20:51,320
Speaker 3: loved going on Chrystal, Kyle and Friends last week. You

1652
01:20:51,360 --> 01:20:53,320
Speaker 3: guys have such a fun time we had.

1653
01:20:53,479 --> 01:20:56,560
Speaker 1: We really both of us really genuinely enjoyed that conversation.

1654
01:20:56,680 --> 01:20:58,600
Speaker 1: So if people want to check that out, we got into, like,

1655
01:20:58,840 --> 01:21:03,919
Speaker 1: you know, some culture war stuff, trans kids drag shows,

1656
01:21:04,280 --> 01:21:06,799
Speaker 1: some of the laws that have been struck down recently

1657
01:21:06,880 --> 01:21:09,960
Speaker 1: and what that means also the like Trump indictment and

1658
01:21:10,040 --> 01:21:12,479
Speaker 1: Hunter stuff. So yeah, we loved it. It was fun. We're

1659
01:21:12,479 --> 01:21:16,759
Speaker 1: gonna it actually inspired us to do more debaty type shows.

1660
01:21:16,840 --> 01:21:19,920
Speaker 3: That's awesome. Yeah, you sounded like Steffan from SNL there

1661
01:21:19,960 --> 01:21:20,320
Speaker 3: like it.

1662
01:21:20,360 --> 01:21:24,040
Speaker 4: Had ever had everything drag shows, Hunter, Biden.

1663
01:21:27,920 --> 01:21:30,200
Speaker 1: Anyway, anyway, let's see this again tomorrow.

1664
01:21:30,240 --> 01:21:31,960
Speaker 3: How about what a good idea.

1665
01:21:32,200 --> 01:21:35,280
Speaker 1: Just change the lighting in the background and the little

1666
01:21:35,320 --> 01:21:37,919
Speaker 1: bug on the side. I'll say breaking points instead of counterpoints,

1667
01:21:37,920 --> 01:21:38,800
Speaker 1: and let's just do it again.

1668
01:21:38,960 --> 01:21:40,240
Speaker 3: And I think it sounds great.

1669
01:21:40,320 --> 01:21:42,920
Speaker 4: Ryan's in Vermont, Sager's getting married, so we're holding down

1670
01:21:42,960 --> 01:21:45,120
Speaker 4: the fort here for the next couple weeks.

1671
01:21:45,160 --> 01:21:47,519
Speaker 1: Actually, we'll find some more studies about men so we

1672
01:21:47,560 --> 01:21:49,040
Speaker 1: can belittle them in their absence.

1673
01:21:49,280 --> 01:21:51,560
Speaker 3: It's actually a really good idea.

1674
01:21:51,920 --> 01:21:55,120
Speaker 4: I'm all for it, So tune in tomorrow for some

1675
01:21:55,160 --> 01:21:56,400
Speaker 4: sort of man hating surprise.

1676
01:21:56,720 --> 01:22:06,559
Speaker 1: I love you guys, See you tomorrow as at